Boris Johnson is now the most hated person in the Western world. He is attempting to do something about that in the UK via an article in the Telegraph that says that Brexit will usher in the best of all possible worlds for the UK.
I’m not making that up. Johnson says citizens will get to keep all the things they love, like freedom of movement between countries and affordable European products, and get rid of what they don’t, meaning those EU nasty rules and courts.
This is so far from anything credible that I wonder if part of Johnson’s motive for writing it isn’t just to reduce his personal risk but to disqualify himself for leadership of the Conservative party. He’s in the position of being the dog that caught the car. And it’s hard to see how he can be effective with the white-hot anger at him. As one reader said:
I have been talking to some of my neighbours in London and am astonished how many are talking about leaving the country. The atmosphere is more febrile by miles than at any time since I arrived here half a century ago.
Johnson, once a favourite of the crowds in London, is being booed very aggressively by large crowds when he appears outside his house and clearly requires police protection. He may have to be moved to other accommodation for his safety.
And yes there are people now talking openly in the streets that they are going to throw the foreigners out.
The mood is very ugly. Remainers are saying that the country have been lied into voting to leave the EU and are openly challenging the vaiidity of the referendum result.
This could get very nasty.
Johnson’s promises now are no more credible than his campaign statements, such as:
As Sky News reported a day ago:
Brexiteer Iain Duncan Smith has stepped back from his campaign’s promise to give the NHS £350m extra per week….
But the former secretary of state for work and pensions said: “I never said that during the course of the election.”
It comes as another Conservative MP Leave campaigner, who will back Boris Johnson for leader, said there was no plan for Brexit.
But his article, I cannot stress too much that Britain is part of Europe – and always will be, Johnson is now a man with a plan. It warrants, if nothing else, as an indicator of how desperate the main actors in the Brexit drama are eager to extricate themselves from the holes they’ve dug.
Here is the core of his pitch:
It is said that those who voted Leave were mainly driven by anxieties about immigration. I do not believe that is so….I can tell you that the number one issue was control – a sense that British democracy was being undermined by the EU system…
We who are part of this narrow majority must do everything we can to reassure the Remainers…
I cannot stress too much that Britain is part of Europe, and always will be. There will still be intense and intensifying European cooperation and partnership in a huge number of fields: the arts, the sciences, the universities, and on improving the environment. EU citizens living in this country will have their rights fully protected, and the same goes for British citizens living in the EU.
British people will still be able to go and work in the EU; to live; to travel; to study; to buy homes and to settle down. As the German equivalent of the CBI – the BDI – has very sensibly reminded us, there will continue to be free trade, and access to the single market….
Yes, there will be a substantial sum of money which we will no longer send to Brussels, but which could be used on priorities such as the NHS
The only change – and it will not come in any great rush – is that the UK will extricate itself from the EU’s extraordinary and opaque system of legislation: the vast and growing corpus of law enacted by a European Court of Justice from which there can be no appeal. This will bring not threats, but golden opportunities for this country – to pass laws and set taxes according to the needs of the UK.
Yes, the Government will be able to take back democratic control of immigration policy, with a balanced and humane points-based system to suit the needs of business and industry. Yes, there will be a substantial sum of money which we will no longer send to Brussels, but which could be used on priorities such as the NHS. Yes, we will be able to do free trade deals with the growth economies of the world in a way that is currently forbidden.
So why exactly should the other 27 members of the EU allow the UK to pick and choose what part of the EU arrangement they like and scotch the rest? Remember that Cameron tried getting some small concessions before the Brexit vote and came back virtually emptyhanded? If this were an economic negotiation, as opposed to a politically fraught one, the only way would be to pay the other side to sweeten the deal for you, which is the opposite of one of Johnson’s fantastical promises, that the UK will get all of the bennies of membership along with lower payments to the EU.
Similarly, why should Europe stand for the UK restricting work opportunities for EU citizens in the UK while allowing Brits to steal jobs from their member nations via letting them work there under more liberal EU rules? Why should they allow free access to the European market when the UK will put EU manufacturers and farmers through the hassle of different consumer safety, labeling, and legal liability regimes?
Moreover, Johnson promises more neoliberalism, in the form of reducing those supposedly nasty EU rules. Yet particularly for the Labor voters who were strong supporters of Remain, EU regulations are seen as attractive precisely because the labor, human rights, and environmental protections are stronger than what the UK would put in place.
But the biggest lie in the many big lies here is the idea that the UK has any bargaining leverage. It was in a disadvantaged position before. Its counterparties had vowed to make the exit punitive to discourage other separatists-in-waiting. As PlutoniumKun pointed out yesterday, the UK was not well liked on the Continent even before this rupture:
The UK is, and has been for years, universally loathed within the corridors of the EU. The failure of UK governments, in particular Conservative governments, to accept that the EU existed for any other purpose than extracting money or blaming for domestic problems has long irritated them. But much worse, the complete refusal of the UK to ‘be part of the team’ for years has been highly damaging. The UK has long sent second raters and no-hopers to Brussels, has long been obstructive for the sake of being obstructive, and most crucially, has not built up allies within the European parliament (the fact that the Tory party aligns itself with crankish East European parties instead of the mainstream European centre-right speaks volumes). Quite simply, they have no friends there….
So I see there as being a lot of potential reasons why Brussels and powerful EU countries may well have a vested interest in creating a short term crisis. In particular, Sterling must be very shaky – a rapid fall could provoke panic in London and would allow the EU to ‘not let a good crisis go to waste’. This may seem cynical, but seeing what happened to Greece, it would be a mistake to underestimate the cynicism of EU leaders. And old mercantilist habits die hard – the Europeans never bought into English liberal ideas that trade was not a zero sum game.
And now the European leaders and Eurocrats are justifiably furious for reckless British pols throwing a wrecking ball into the very heart of their fragile system merely to gain some political advantage, with no serious plan on their side.
In addition, procedurally, it is virtually impossible to effect such fundamental changes outside of pressing the Article 50 red button. From a very informative article at the Constitution Unit:
It is vanishingly unlikely that the UK could withdraw without triggering Article 50 at all. During the campaign, Vote Leave suggested that it might be possible to leave via Article 48 of the Lisbon Treaty, which sets out the procedure for revising EU treaties. But a simple majority of member states could block even a request to consider such a route, and the amendments themselves would require ratification by every member state. Given that the Article 50 process skews the balance of power towards the continuing member states, we can presume they will insist on its use. Leaders of both Vote Leave (including Michael Gove) and Leave.EU (including Nigel Farage) have spoken since the result was announced in terms suggesting that they recognise this.
Someone needs to send Johnson the memo.
The article also gives a more realistic picture of how the negotiations would go:
The process of withdrawal will involve three sets of negotiations:
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First will be the negotiation of the withdrawal terms themselves. These will likely include, for example, an agreement on the rights of UK citizens already resident in other member states and of EU citizens resident in the UK. As Professor Sionaidh Douglas-Scott has explained, those rights – contrary to what some have said – are for the most part not protected under existing international law.
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Second, it will be necessary to negotiate a trade deal with the EU. The official Vote Leave campaign confirmed that it wanted such a deal and correctly pointed out that everyone’s interests would be served by having one. The content of the deal will, however, be hotly contested. Vote Leave focused on securing free trade in goods and argued that, because the UK imports more goods from the EU than it exports to the EU, we could expect to be offered a good deal. But there will be greater difficulties in services. Open Europe (which campaigns for EU reform and was neutral in the referendum) highlights particular difficulties in financial services, where it rates the chances of maintaining current levels of access to the EU as ‘low’.
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Third, the UK will have to negotiate the terms of its membership of the WTO and will want also to negotiate trade deals with the over 50 countries that currently have such deals with the EU, as the existing arrangements will no longer apply to the UK from the moment of Brexit. The WTO itself has warned that this will not be straightforward: the UK will not be allowed just to ‘cut and paste’ the terms of WTO membership that it currently has through its EU membership. Similarly, while we might hope that other countries will agree quickly to extend the EU rules to the UK, we cannot presume that all will – and the UK itself might want different terms in some cases.
These negotiations could run in parallel, or the UK could negotiate withdrawal first and future arrangements later. As Professor Adam Lazowski has pointed out, there are difficulties in both approaches.
In the meantime, the pressure for the UK government to get moving is rising. The IMF’s Christine Lagarde called for prompt action to keep the Market Gods from killing the Confidence Fairy. However, she did point out the inconsistency in the EU position, and it was probably not referring to Merkel trying to tamp down the “nasty” remarks from the foreign ministers of the founding EU members. The Europeans are sending conflicted messages. The desire for a speedy exit and punishing the UK (out of their own pique as well as to discourage right wing nationalists) conflicts with the desire to reduce real economy damage. They need to calm down and sort out priorities.
In addition, as of this hour, sterling dropped another 2% and the 10 year Gilt yield fell below 1%. The futures market suggests hte US stocks will open down a bit under 1%. The Financial Times ran a story yesterday with the headline, Banks begin moving operations out of UK, which was roundly attacked in the comments section for exaggerating how imminent and large the job shifts would be. As Felix2012 pointed out:
The total number of workers in the 14 banks above is 65k and there are 2 million employed in the financial and associated industry across UK (mostly outside London).
Let’s just say London employs 200k people, we are talking about 1-2% (a few thousands) job loss. It is painful, especially for the people affected, but it is far from ‘close shop and go’.
But another headline today, Brexit: anxious employers freeze jobs and cut investment plans, has better backup:
Britain’s vote to leave the EU is prompting a sizeable minority of employers in the UK to freeze hiring and cut their investment plans, according to a survey of more than 1,000 business leaders.
The poll is an early indication that a British exit from the bloc will hit jobs and investment as employers grapple with volatile markets and political instability. Almost two-thirds of the business leaders surveyed by the Institute of Directors on June 24-26, immediately after the vote, said the referendum result would be “negative” for them.
While a third said they would continue to hire at the same pace, a quarter planned to freeze recruitment and 5 per cent expected to fire staff. More than a third planned to reduce their investment plans and a fifth said they would consider moving some operations abroad.
However, it’s hard to know how big the Brexit “uncertainty” effect is without a pre-Brexit baseline.
A final update: the Scottish first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, is threatening to ask the Scottish parliament to obstruct Brexit. But Scottish secretary David Mundell effectively said Whitehall will ignore the Scots if they fail to consent.
Cameron is scheduled to speak today. I doubt he is going to try to upstage Johnson by pulling a rabbit out of a hat.
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In my opinion the negotiation of withdrawal terms and the new trade deals cannot be lead by current EU leaders (Junkers et al.) that have miserably failed to address Brexit. Current European Comission should resign as their position in the negotiations will be dominated by resenment and the wish to retaliate.
Agreed. Junker has to go.
The man is delusional – the wording of the referendum was very clear:
The referendum question enables the UK to remain in the EEA. This is very similar to the EU (has full single market access, and free movement), but does not have voting rights.
The Leave campaign’s promises implied that the UK wouldn’t join the EEA. But the Leave campaign was mendacious, and many of its promises are already being retracted.
You could also note another way around the referendum wording. If the UK ceases to exist, then the referendum question is moot. I’ve suggested elsewhere that this could happen by moving the UK to a federal system. The attractiveness is that it would take 5-10 years to set up, during which continued EU membership can continue exactly as previously. I’ve not seen anyone else propose this idea, although I think it’s the simplest way to obviate the referendum result, should it be desirable to do so.
@m-ga
The idea of the UK leaving the EU but remaining members of the EEA (full single market access and freedom of movement) without voting rights is, I think you will agree, rather far fetched.
Your idea of a UK federation is interesting, though I am not sure I fully follow the attractiveness of this route.
Have you seen Fintan O’Toole’s articles on Brexit and it’s implicit dissolution of the UK.
Brexit is being driven by English nationalism. And it will end in self-rule.
Brexit fantasy is about to come crashing down
Thanks for the links. I’d agree that Brexit implies the break-up of the UK.
Leaving the EU but remaining in the EEA would follow the model of Norway, and a few other countries:
https://www.gov.uk/eu-eea
There’s also the arrangement that Switzerland has, but I’ve seen suggestions that would be trickier to negotiate.
Fascinating that the Scots seem convinced they’ll get a better deal from the Germans than from the British. They might want to check with the Greeks first.
Even assuming the implausible: that a Norway model can be done, it is that it is still not satisfying and not just because of the vote.
According to experts,
They’re talking about this in the Commons at the moment. Ken Clarke asked if Cameron supports joining the EEA, and Cameron said he wants to stay in the single market.
It doesn’t take too much reading around the issues to realise that this plan (switching from the EU to the EEA) will not be viable. The only exception, I think, will be if the UK government think they can hold a gun to the collective heads of the rest of the EU, and get a deal that no-one else has. I don’t personally think the UK government bargaining position is that strong. But we’ll find out soon enough.
In some ways, it’s like a game of chicken. The UK’s economy and non-EU foreign relations are going to crash during the uncertainty. But, that is also the case for the rest of the EU.
The rest of the EU has a larger and more diverse economy than the UK, so should be able to hold out much more easily. However, the rest of the EU has weaknesses that the UK doesn’t have (e.g the eurozone imbalances, upcoming elections in member states). So, it’s not hugely easy to read.
I wonder who will blink first. If the UK decides to fold, it will most likely be by doing nothing (i.e. never getting around to triggering Article 50). It would be necessary for the UK government to find some explanation which will allow them to signal to investors that the UK’s EU membership is not changing, whilst somehow placating Brexit voters. This isn’t straightforward.
Boris Johnson has effectively said it, by backing an English parliament. Though like many of his statements, it was a trifle vague.
Europe is not the same as the European Union. Europe is a continent of nations, some in the EU, some not. The EU is a sclerotic, profoundly undemocratic institution that imprisons much of southern Europe under a disastrous single currency.
Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson jumped on the leave train to show how principled he was.
After the refendum failed he would succeed Cameron.
Funny how things work out.
Amusing to see Boris hoist with his own petard — the former Mayor of London and First Buffoon now the most hated man in London (and elsewhere).
That “£350 million pounds per week that will now go to the NHS” is going to go down in history along with Bush I’s “Read my lips — no new taxes” or Bush II’s “MISSION ACCOMPLISHED” as another unforgettable political gaffe.
An example of how Boris is a walking disaster: apart from his, ahem, complicated private life, for years he didn’t file FBAR notices with the IRS for his US accounts, and in a huff he gave up his US passport. He really is a UK version of Trump in many ways.
Extraordinary that in the run up to the referendum vote Cameron, Johnson and others didn’t game out a “what if the Leave vote passes? – what is our plan B in that case?” scenario.
He’s not even the most deluded. One of the UKIP wheels had a blurb on the desired “negotiation” strategy in which the minimum preconditions included: Full access to the single market without being “part of” the single market or needing to submit to any limitations whatsoever in return for that.
In other words, a “negotiation” in which the people across the table get nothing at all, while handing you all your fondest pipe dreams. Of course, the only way “negotiations” ever produce such a result is if they aren’t really negotiations at all, and the stronger party is simply dictating terms. Since Britain has not in fact fought and won a war against the rest of Europe, its hard to see how that would apply.
Eu is desperate to maintain their 100b/yr trade surplus with Britain. They will happily agree to a tariff free trade zone with Britain.
Imagine if Germany left… That is the country that would have no leverage.
No one is acting that way. Keeping the separatists at bay is a higher priority. Only Merkel is taking a moderate line. Her own foreign minister and much (most? don’t have a good read of German sentiment yet) of the members of her coalition want harsh treatment of the UK. AfD is breathing down their necks.
for me the politics is getting way murky, but my gut continues to burn every time i consider the Debt Exposure from all this. it would seem unrelenting debt contagion is what should expedite a speedy an orderly exit. what do i know…are Haitian divorces still legit?
That was exactly what I thought of his article. The man clearly has lost all grip on reality.
It seems Boris views ‘leaving the EU’ as vague enough to encompass remaining in the EU if necessary. All he cared about is getting rid of ‘Dave’.
Indeed. I am praying that even Johnson can’t backpedal that much.
I’d love to know what his brother thinks of him right now. Jo Johnson has been a vaguely competent minister and is pro-EU.
In order to lose something, one must posses it first.
Two comments:
– to be able to negotiate anything, UK would have to have diplomats worth the name. It doesn’t, and for a very long time it didn’t. Incidentally, ignoring foreign diplomacy (especially at the EU level, except when it come to the City) is one of the major reasons why UK was in the place it was. There’s no question about German sovreignty over EU laws… (anything coming from EU which doesn’t fit German constitution is automatically null and void as far as Germany is concerned)..
– job losses. It may be 200k “only”, but it terms of GDP contribution it’s probably a large chunk of the top 5-10%. More if you take in all the consultants, high powered lawyers and accountants feeding on the caracass. Median salary in FS is likely north of 50k pounds. That would translate to about 20k+ tax loss per job (first order effects), so about 4bln pounds for 200k jobs. That’s 76m pounds per week, or about slightly more than one fith of the magical “350m per week that goes to EU”.
I suspect that the number of job losses will be greater. I for one was not at all surprised by the real estate crash in the US, because RE prices obviously indicated a speculative bubble. However, I certainly WAS surprised by the degree to which it took the rest of the economy with it. In reality the financialization of the US economy meant that much of the growth of the previous 5 years was just a financial bubble. And my guess is that we’ll discover the same thing about the UK economy.
the 200k is the total number of people employed in the City. 1-2% of them would lose their jobs, so 2-4k.
Sounds like WW3 is going to be fought, not with Panzers and Spitfires, but with trade treaties and exchange rates. Future screen epics will pull back for the long shot as armies of lawyers clash. At any rate those of us who are fans of NC will be in the right place.
Speaking as a fan of NC who is currently sitting right in the middle of the front lines I for one do *not* I am in the right place. Not at all!
Point taken; it’s hard to pass the popcorn while having to watch for incoming.
There’s one interesting takeaway from Johnson’s ramblings. It’s that the appetite for Brexit within the Conservatives is dwindling.
The only other senior Conservatives to campaign for Leave were Gove and IDS. Gove has already indicated that he’ll fall in line behind Johnson. IDS has acted as Conservative leader already (he was deposed via a vote of no confidence), and is unlikely to make major waves.
If the Conservatives collectively decide that they don’t want Brexit, it won’t happen.
I suspect the question currently being discussed within the Conservative party is whether there’s any advantage in switching to the EEA, or to some other relationship, or whether it would be better to stay in the EU. The most pressing issue for them might be that if they don’t get invited to the EU meetings, they aren’t as much use to the USA. It’s very unlikely that any Conservative would want the UK-US relationship diminished. The idea of the USA increasing its direct dealings with Germany will not go down at all well.
In addition, Conservatives are unlikely to want the breakaway of Scotland, which is now looking likely.
And they will want to immediately quash the negative impact on London’s position in financial services.
So, it might well be that the formerly anti-EU members of the parliamentary Conservative party fall into line quite quickly behind whatever direction the top brass choose to take.
The Conservative Party first applied for the UK to join the European Community, took the UK into the European Community, and got Maastricht through. The only other referendum on withdraw was offered by a Labour government. The Tories have always been the more pro-EU of the two parties, regardless of how they come across in public. Its Labour that has flip flopped all over the place on the issue, splitting on the issue in 1982 and likely to split again.
TBH, I find the whole EEA funny.. In a sad sort of way. Because to me, it would pretty much codify the pre-referendum situation. I had a close-second-hand experience with how the EU directive process worked for the UK.
– EU comes with an idea for a directive, and invites EU members to comment.
– UK ignores it (unless it was incentive touching the City)
– EU decides on something, and EU parliament passes it.
– I’d note that all directives have degrees of freedom that national parliaments can use.
– UK ignores it
– UK passes the directive as is (basically taking the draft and making it a law)
– few years goes on
– UK complains about EU directive that ignores any and all UK idiosyncracies
From that perspective, being in EEA formalizes the first five steps and pretty much skips them. And then they say that EU is inefficient!
That pretty much sums up the UK approach to Directives. I would add though that they do pay attention if it effects big farmers (the Dept of Agriculture and the National Farmers Association (essentially the same organisation) pay a lot of attention to what goes on in Europe). the UK was central to shooting down a recent very sensible directive aimed at preventing soil erosion. But in most other respects the UK just ignores Directives until they get a hammering in the courts, and then act all surprised.
the UK lobbied hard to keep the ISDS within the TTIP and killed the financial transactions tax.
good riddance
I have read something interesting: regulations will disappear immediately, directives will have to be dismantled one by one.
That explains my experience. Upon beginning a postgrad degree in the UK the building manager of our department gave an intro and saftey lecture. He was a very nice, friendly and polite man. Very British, indeed.
However, he did go on about fire extinguishers and how the EU keeps on making new rules about the colour requirements. Meaning the colour indicates the content just as it is done on gas cylinders. (‘And the the EU decided that it has to be…’).
Coming from Germany I was all surprised about this since our extinguishers have always been red, without interuption. I know now that ours do have an apropriate colour marking somewhere but are generally still red (the brand new one 3m from me is red only, I just noticed).
So I guess sovereignty depends on whether you choose to use it.
I got a link to a DLA Piper Brexit portal this morning in my mail. It’s astounding the depth of ties that will have to be renegotiated or legislated de novo.
https://www.dlapiper.com/en/uk/focus/brexit-legal-impact/at-a-glance/
How will the UK even manage this without creation of an entire ministry or two and the hiring of thousands of civil servants?
Unless of course they simply outsource it all. Perhaps they can hire French diplomats and German lawyers to sort out the mess.
They could of course hire lots of Polish, Latvian and Pakistani lawyers…. but of course they’d have to give them immigration status.
Sounds like a “Centre of Excellence” e.g. why bring them over when it could all be done remotely?
I imagine the consulting giants are on top of this already.
Most negative reactions to the Brexit are overwrought. Everyone knows that the EU suffers from a democratic deficit. This was amply demonstrated when both the Dutch and the French rejected the mandarin written EU constitution. Exactly why people are so disturbed is hard to fathom. Secession is the new name for Revolution which a major Presidential candidate in the US has recently been promoting.
“I have been talking to some of my neighbours in London and am astonished how many are talking about leaving the country…”
Boo-hoo. Sounds like a positive sign. Call their bluff. But where shall they go? Perhaps Turks and Caicos. I am with many who feel that that the UK is smart in getting out ahead of an EU that is incapable of reversing its disintegration. It will be a pain and a struggle to refashion an economy built less on BS and parasitism (particularly finance). Many outside of the metropole and elsewhere have already felt it and been forced to adjust.
Where will they go? Probably off to some scuzzy tax haven where most of their money is already parked. It reminds me of the old story about the Rolls Royce salesman who, when a potential buyer complained about the lack of boot ( I.e. Trunk in the US) space, replied ” Sir, a Gentleman’s baggage should always precede him…”
Meanwhile Osborn has a plan, and some soothing words. https://www.politicshome.com/news/europe/eu-policy-agenda/brexit/news/76616/george-osbornes-post-brexit-statement-full-text#st_refDomain=t.co&st_refQuery=/WQB1A1sQo1.
More credible than Boris, actually.
George getting in his leadership bid.
There is an existing arrangement with one EEA/EFTA country and the EU that exactly matches the decription contained in Boris Johnson’s article. A precedent has already been set many years ago by Leichtenstein.
No doubt France will have to be given a ‘bung’ of some description, as well as some arm twisting by Germany. Also its actually in France’s interest to allow the ‘negotiation’ to drift until well after their next general election.
Once the dust has settled and the media ( and blog writers) turn their attention back to other issues like the US elections; this matter will find an acceptable solution along the lines od the accomodation with one of the smallest of european states.
The Liechtenstein model excludes Liechtenstein from EU agriculture and fisheries laws. EU agriculture and fishery regulations are, for whatever reason, a big deal in the UK. So, if Johnson gained an exclusion from those laws, he could cite his negotiations as a win.
http://eeas.europa.eu/liechtenstein/index_en.htm
However, Liechtenstein is in the Schengen area. The UK is already outside Schengen, and entering would cross a red line for Brexiters. So, the deal can’t be exactly as for Liechtenstein.
It’s also not clear there’s an advantage over the UK’s current EU membership. Being in the EEA requires paying into the EU, but without any voting rights. Even if there is a saving by switching from EU to EEA membership, paying for the voting rights would presumably be worth it. Especially for the UK (e.g. the UK can use its vote to protect Gibraltar, or UK financial services, or promulgate a US view, and so on).
Liechtenstein has a rolling 5 year agreement on reduced immigration, This will be seen as a ‘win’ and will be worth the EEA ‘fee’ paid to the EU.
That’s just the kind of thing the UK Government could present to the Brexit voters as a victory.
However, Liechtenstein has a population of around 35,000. If Liechtenstein were able to lean on the EU for concessions, it might well be due to their tiny size. Being a tax haven could also help. The UK, on the other hand, is attached to a tax haven (the City of London), but seems far too unwieldy for a major concession on immigration to go unnoticed by occupants of the other 27 EU members states.
Agreed. And these overwrought negative reactions are what the owners of the media, in the UK, Europe and the US, want to present and to encourage. There are thoughtful and knowledgeable people who have been working for Brexit for years (eg., the EUReferendum blog), but these views are not found in the media because the owners of the media do not want these views propagated. Sleazy politicians are presented as the leaders of the Brexit movement because the owners of the media want to portray the Brexit movement as nothing more than the tool of sleazy politicians.
Never let a crisis go to waste.
Huh? Did you miss that Boris Johnson is probably going to be the next PM, hence in charge of the Brexit negotiations, and is the epitome of a sleazy politician? And that he and Nigel Farage, no paragon of virtue either, have been the leaders of the Bexit push?
Whatever you are smoking, it is very strong.
Yves, I agree re “the epitome of a sleazy politician” (though Boris manages to do it in his own idiosyncratic way, with clown hairstyle and quoting Latin and Greek proverbs etc).
However, I now think the Brexit vote is creating such blowback and the Leave team (esp BoJo and Gove) are already having to retreat on their promises (most notably “£350 million per week for the NHS”) that Boris is too toxic a politician to lead the Tories. I think an “Anyone But Boris” campaign has already begun.
I’ve read a million posts and comments today on Brexit, so I can’t remember if it was here on NC or elsewhere, but someone said the Tory leadership is now a “poisoned chalice” and wiser heads wouldn’t want it right now. But nobody every confused Boris Johnson with a “wiser head” I suppose!
A look at the flexcit plan advocated by he EUreferendum.blog suggests to me that this too is the work of fantasists.
Please explain because that’s not the way it looked to me
enquiring minds maybe like to check it out for themselves (PDF)
While they’re sweeping up all those chicken heads, we have Flexcit for you: it’s all worked out here. Just follow the instructions and you won’t go far wrong. Written by hundreds, read by thousands (currently over 80,000), this is the definitive exit plan, as noted by The Register.
I agree. It’s full of wind.
Paragraph 2:
The history of Britain for a thousand years has been as a merchant and maritime
power playing its full role in European and world affairs while living under its
own laws.
Like under William the Conqueror or Henry II.
muahahaha.. Clearly the guys on that blog read a different history of UK (probably a UKIP version) than anyone else.
UK has a history of boom-to-bust, of being a third-rate power suddenly moved to a first rate one, and then back.
1000 years of merchant and maritime power? Yeah, with long periods of pretty much no navy, dutch and hanseatic traders controlling the wool trade, Dutch VOC whipping East India Company wherever it met it etc. etc.
Fantasy land in history, thus I expect a fantasy land in present and future.
Whew! Thank god some guy with a blog has a plan.
BTW, That blogger has been in the media… his climate change skepticism was published… then embarrassing retracted by several major UK newspapers:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_A._E._North
Boris Johnson is a case against Brexit! But I support it anyhow.
https://therulingclassobserver.wordpress.com/2016/06/25/of-labels-the-doors-of-perception/
“Britain’s vote to leave the EU is prompting a sizeable minority of employers in the UK to freeze hiring and cut their investment plans, according to a survey of more than 1,000 business leaders.”
Yeah, I hear that right up to the vote they were hiring so many people they were considering press gangs and throwing money by the truckload into their facilities vainly attempting to keep up with demand. That’s why Great Britain has a negative unemployment rate and things are being built so fast that if you nod off for a second there’s a good chance you’ll find yourself entombed in the walls of yet another new factory.
“And now the European leaders and Eurocrats are justifiably furious for reckless British pols throwing a wrecking ball into the very heart of their fragile system merely to gain some political advantage, with no serious plan on their side.”
Last time I looked this was a national referendumm not a politician’s referendum. How dare the Eurocrats deny democracy in the United Kingdom? Well of course they deny it because they don’t believe in it. Which is precisely why the system is “fragile”. Maybe they should call up the EU army and keep Britain IN by force of arms. We set the precedent for that over on this side of the pond.
” an agreement on the rights of UK citizens already resident in other member states and of EU citizens resident in the UK” The EU does not grant citizenship the member states do. The EU is not the United States of Europe.
I agree. The big picture is that the EU is an undemocratic institution that is causing instability and widening inequality, which, of course hits those on the (growing) lower end of the divide hardest. The Leave vote managed a convincing 52% of the vote, indicating deep dissatisfaction with the status quo.
Descending into all of the minutia of British politics obscures the main lesson of the Brexit vote. I would urge focus on the larger goals of social and economic justice.
Mark,
Yes, and London is outraged. London of course being England (like NYC and D.C. are America). If those so outraged are so enamored of, and so valuable to, the EU then they should move across the channel and become citizens of which ever EU nation they prefer.
Please see PlutoniumKun’s comment above about how the UK has behaved badly for years as an EU member.
It’s one thing for an “inside” power like France to have a revolt against the EU, or more accurately, the Eurozone, which is imposing austerity on member states. It’s another for the British to rebel, when they actually had a very favorable deal.
As for “EU citizens” this legal site indicates they do have rights they can assert in court. For instance:
http://eulawanalysis.blogspot.com/2015/12/can-schengen-be-suspended-because-of.html
Those defining themselves as left of center have spent several years criticizing liberals and using neo-liberal as an insult are now complaining about voting….
Oh, the horror of direct democracy and the affection for representative democracy when barriers to voting and complex layers within voting are just more neo-liberalism.
Nice, thoughtful, poignant piece in the Guardian by a Mike Carter, who walked from Liverpool to London. The entire piece is well worth a read, and is getting lots of positive comments, many people noting how the MSM including the Guardian haven’t reported the public mood properly:
–I walked from Liverpool to London. Brexit was no surprise
Thanks for this link.
My pleasure, flora — I think it was one of the more thoughtful Brexit commentaries I’ve read lately.
My own dealings in the UK are almost exclusively in London, but on the rare occasion I visit another city it does indeed seem like a different country. Rather like the “flyover zone” in the US. Of course the media elite live in NYC and Washington and holiday in the Hamptons or Martha’s Vineyard, so how much exposure do they have to the people outside their little bubbles?
This just popped up on the FT live blog, and is important:
https://ukconstitutionallaw.org/2016/06/27/nick-barber-tom-hickman-and-jeff-king-pulling-the-article-50-trigger-parliaments-indispensable-role/
It argues that Article 50 can only be passed with UK parliamentary approval. The UK prime minister cannot trigger Article 50 without parliamentary approval.
This is required not only by UK law but also (crucially!) by European law.
If the argument is correct, there are major legal hurdles to even initiating Article 50.
The article suggests two reasons why parliament might decline to grant permission to initiate Article 50, and thereby act against the instruction of the electorate in the referendum vote:
1. False Prospectus. The Leave campaign was both contradictory and deliberately misleading in the claims it made to voters of what would happen following Brexit.
2. National Interest. The suggestion is that a strategy for Brexit would have to be laid out and agreed, before parliament agree to initiate Article 50.
The article notes that the UK is a representative, rather than a direct, democracy. As such MPs could be justified in overturning the referendum result on the basis of either (1) or (2) – doing so would not be undemocratic according to the UK’s unwritten constitution.
If Parliament ignores the Brexit vote, what would be the likely response from the electorate?
Well, that’s the rub! There needs to be a cover story.
Kicking the issue into the long grass would be the usual UK government style. I’ve got no doubt whatsoever that the Conservatives are capable of managing this move domestically.
The difficulty for them then is to signal internationally that the UK remains in the EU, and is open for business as normal. And also reassure the USA that the Brits will continue to show up to EU meetings and throw a spanner in the works.
I don’t see how both messages can be sent simultaneously. I’d guess that all the current Conservative signalling is aimed at buying time, so they can brainstorm what to do next.
To clarify, the simultaneous messages would be:
To the electorate:
“Brexit is really complicated. We need to spend ages on the negotiations. It is definitely happening and we will get really good things for you”.
To governments and investors:
“Don’t worry about that Brexit thing. Not happening. We’ll whip the plebs a little harder next time.”
It seems to be working for Hillary.
Opinion is divided on this issue. From the Constitution Unit which says of itself, “The Constitution Unit in the Department of Political Science at University College London is the UK’s leading research body on constitutional change”:
https://constitution-unit.com/2016/06/24/the-road-to-brexit-16-things-you-need-to-know-about-the-process-of-leaving-the%E2%80%AFeu/
Cameron has made no mention of a vote, so I don’t think the Government intends to put the question. Labor might try to if they succeed in defenestrating Corbyn.
It seems to hinge on the question of royal prerogative. And, whether statute beats prerogative.
From the UK Constitutional Law Association link:
https://ukconstitutionallaw.org/2016/06/27/nick-barber-tom-hickman-and-jeff-king-pulling-the-article-50-trigger-parliaments-indispensable-role/
I’ve emphasised what I think is the key argument:
If Cameron received advice that parliamentary approval isn’t necessary, then it’s likely Cameron’s advisors are correct! However, if Cameron’s advisors told him that the reading is ambiguous, then Cameron may have preferred to suggest an interpretation that gives more power to the Prime Minister (i.e. to himself).
Alternatively, Cameron may have been careful to avoid any suggestion that the Brexit referendum vote could be overturned by parliament. It would be incendiary for the Brexit voters to think such a thing possible just now. Cameron has been consistently careful to say that the wishes of voters should be “respected” – where “respected” does not necessarily have the same meaning as “followed”.
But if Parliament ignores the express will of the people, by definition there is no longer any representation and therefore Parliament renders itself illegitimate.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Representative_democracy
In which case, having a referendum in the first place is a total sham.
As a right-wing authoritarian, Burke would say that, wouldn’t he. Just because dead RWNJs say it doesn’t make it fact (cf. “reality-creation”).
Can we come right out and say representative democracy is neither?
After all the build-up to the EU referendum and how “the people must decide”, if they try to stitch up a different outcome via a vote in Parliament or some other means (a fudge with the EU negotiators) there will be riots in the streets in the UK.
The Tory party would break up and people would flock to UKIP.
The government could fall in the situation you describe. This might be in the back of the minds of the Blairite Labour MPs attempting a coup right now. Labour would be much better placed to profit than UKIP would if the Conservatives totally screw up.
However, the Conservatives are unlikely make such an obvious mistake. What’s I think they’d prefer is to reshuffle the cards, and declare Brexit achieved. Trouble is, it’s not at all clear how that could work. But anything along the lines of “associate EU member” is saleable.
Maybe, or they might thank them. Brexit isn’t that popular.
Overwrought is a good description, but necessary.
Mish made two interesting points last night:
https://mishtalk.com/2016/06/26/why-did-the-uk-enter-the-eu-in-the-first-place/#more-38963
Without serious overwrought over-complication, though, an awful lot of lawyers, trade reps, diplomats, media pundits, technocrats, and professional fraudsters would be in the unemployment lines.
Unacceptable.
Don’t forget about the poor bankers.
Over at Verso Press Richard Seymour has a useful left analysis of the attempted coup against Corbyn:
http://www.versobooks.com/blogs/2728-they-want-their-party-back
To the extent this is true, it attests to how utterly careerist the plotters are. Precisely at a time when the party could be organizing to fight for economic positions that might bring in Leave voters, they are willing to make Labor appear fragmented and unreliable and allow the Conservatives time to pull themselves out of the crapper. As Seymour points out, they are the very sort of people who will, based on past voter experience, be incapable of drawing new support. Apres nous, le deluge.
I think Brett Arends at Marketwatch called it:
Americans have a tendency to assume economic rationality of the actors when that may not be the driver. If Europeans were economically rational, Europe would not be in a near depression as a result of their neoliberal austerity fixation. In additional recall that every US financial outlet assumed that Greece and the Troika would come to an understanding. I also heard this from Americans who prided themselves on well tuned in to what was going on in official circles.
The political dynamic is that that the foreign ministers of the biggest members of the EU are furious with the UK. Merkel is the only person so far trying to act like an adult in the room and that is still in opposition to her own foreign minister AND much if not most of the Bundestag (I have not had time to get a better fix on the degree of domestic opposition). That German choler is despite the fact that Germany’s car industry has a ton to lose with a punitive Brexit. And also remember that the Article 50 procedures give the Europeans the upper hand, and on top of that, the UK has so hollowed out its civil service that it will have trouble manning the extraordinarily complex negotiations which puts 40 years of EU and domestic legislation up for review. Those manpower limits will also translate into an advantage for Europe.
The key players believe that a punitive Brexit is necessary to save the EU and Eurozone, to tamp down the separatists. Until there are signs that that mood has shifted, Arends looks terribly optimistic.
And the longer it takes to invoke Article 50, the madder the European side will become. If the Conservatives hold out for 3+ months as they (so far) have repeatedly said they will (Cameron said he is staying for 90 days and his successor will pull the trigger), they will be absolutely furious because that will keep Brexit in the headlines, which will only help the hated populists of various sorts, as well as intensifying the damage caused by the loathed “uncertainty”.
“The key players believe that a punitive Brexit is necessary to save the EU and Eurozone, to tamp down the separatists.” The question is punitive to whom; the British financial elites that are personal friends with the European key players or the poor working stiffs that voted to leave.
Austerity, as nutty as it is, seems rational to the European neolibs. But amputating the financial hub from the EU may actually strike them as being a little bit crazy.
I’m sure Schauble will want to set an example of the British workers. Can the Tories cut a deal that saves the elites?
Huh? The Europeans view a Brexit as a opportunity to have Continental big players (SocGen, BNP, Deutsche, ABN Amro, Paribas) eat the City’s lunch. They have no reason to coddle the UK’s financiers. This is part of the reason for the bloodlust. The unarticulated view seems to be that what the EU will lose in trade in goods (which may be limited ex discretionary purchases like cars and things with substitutes like wine) will be offset by what they can extract in the trade in services side. I doubt they fantasize that there is any way this can be a net neutral equation, but most European leaders seem to see a certain level of economic cost as warranted to prevent more fracturing of the EU.
So on the Continent, you have the pols predisposed to want to make a Brexit harsh to weaken the separatist movements. And in terms of the economic interests, the real economy players will want the UK to be treated nicely while the financiers want the reverse.
Stupid me. Where could I have gotten the idea that sociopaths would watch each others backs. Thanks for setting me straight.
…the EU PTB’s excepted. As others have said, the EU’s fear of contagion may override all else, and could sideline considerations of the mutual self interest of states. It remains to be seen whether the EU has amassed enough power to impose the control needed for its own self-preservation. Given Greece’s treatment, anything is possible.
“”The freedom that neo-liberalism espouses is a “freedom to suppress wages … the freedom to poison rivers, endanger workers, charge iniquitous rates of interest and design exotic financial instruments … freedom from the distribution of wealth that lifts people out of poverty.”
This abandonment of concern for the interests of the majority is behind the Brexit vote.””
Leave
I think the Brexit vote can be seen as similar to a vote for a Trump presidency. It is a protest vote against poor worker conditions and rising inequality. As Bill Mitchell puts it in the above article ‘the train is moving faster but more people are being left at the station’.
Leave
The British working class and their allies the over 50’s have adopted scorched earth in the fight against the globalists. They will retreat to their market towns and industrialized cities, knowing that (to steal a phrase) winter is coming, but the globalists and their proxy shock troop immigrants are going to get hurt far more. Too bad the Brits can’t turn co-opt the immigrants, although if the migration is reversed, history shows returning armies can have profoundly unexpected consequences in their own societies.
It looks like Boris and some of the “leaders” of leave tried to get in front of a mob and call it a parade.
I can understand why Johnson might be widely hated, especially among the upper crust. But surely he’s not the most hated man in the world.
There are millions on the European continent who would similarly like to leave the EU and probably wish they had someone like Johnson to help lead them. If Johnson were as widely reviled as the writer says, those millions in the Netherlands, France, Sweden and a few other countries wouldn’t be so eager to put the EU in their rearview mirror and there wouldn’t be any danger of the EU breaking up as a result of the Brexit vote, as everyone seems to fear now.
I didn’t say in the world. I said in the Western world.
The fact that he might have some fans on the Continent does not change the fact that he is widely hated in his own country, by people in finance all over the world, and by many members of the elite in Europe (politicians and businessmen).
If that’s the case, he could soon have millions more fans in the Western world.
Max Hastings (Johnson’s former employer) writing in 2012:
“If the day ever comes that Boris Johnson becomes tenant of Downing Street, I shall be among those packing my bags for a new life in Buenos Aires or suchlike, because it means that Britain has abandoned its last pretensions to be a serious country.
I have known the mayor more than 20 years. He worked for me as EU correspondent of the Daily Telegraph and then as a columnist when I was the paper’s editor, and I have seen plenty of him since. He is a magnificent journalist and showman. He proved himself the perfect maitre d’ for the London Olympics. But few maitre d’s are fit to cook the dinner.
Most politicians are ambitious and ruthless, but Boris is a gold medal egomaniac. I would not trust him with my wife nor – from painful experience – my wallet. It is unnecessary to take any moral view about his almost crazed infidelities, but it is hard to believe that any man so conspicuously incapable of controlling his own libido is fit to be trusted with controlling the country.
His chaotic public persona is not an act – he is, indeed, manically disorganised about everything except his own image management. He is also a far more ruthless, and frankly nastier, figure than the public appreciates.
When one of his many sexual affairs was exposed and much trumpeted in the headlines, he telephoned a friend of mine who was then running one of Britain’s largest media organisations. “It’s utterly disgraceful what your reporters are doing on-screen about my private life,” spluttered Boris. “It’s time you realised that I know all about your private life. If your organisation goes on reporting my affairs like this, you’ll be reading all about yours in the Spectator [the magazine he then edited].”
My friend responded: “Stop a minute, Boris, and think about what you just said. There is a word for it, and it is not a pretty one – ‘blackmail’.” Johnson waffled away, muttering that he had never really meant it. But he is much given to making threats, bearing grudges and behaving with malice aforethought.
I would not take Boris’s word about whether it is Monday or Tuesday. ”
——————————————————————————————
I believe Johnson has twice been sacked for lying.
And this is the man Britain may find as its next Prime Minister at a time of national crisis
I refer you to this clip
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9l7S1hnRPF0
For anyone who’s interested there is some detail on the methodology behind reports that UK GDP per household will be £4,300 lower post Brexit:
http://www.cass.city.ac.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0007/320758/BlakeReviewsTreasuryModels.pdf
The short version is this number is estimated from a “Gravity model of trade” which assumes Trade Quantities are proportional to a multiplier for Trade Partners participating in a Common Market (Eurozone), and inversely proportional to he distance between the countries:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e31BtKRjg1Y
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravity_model_of_trade
This neglects many other relevant factors including exchange rates between trading partners, product differentiation (trades is not exclusively for commodities), advertising, market share, and estimates of tariff changes.
The -£4,300 number commonly repeated does not include many things people assume that it does.
We never cited that analysis or any claim re the economic impact of Brexit, save dissing Osborne’s estimate that home prices will fall 20%. Trying to put a precise number on the Brexit cost is a foolish exercise. Too many uncertainties, including how long it takes to negotiate a deal and what the deal consists of.
I agree – its impossible to estimate the future cost or benefit of UK Brexit.
Maybe it’s not about the money.
Do not declare Independence on July 4, unless a cost/benefit analysis is done.
Wait for the accountants.
Tell general Washington we will call him when we are ready here.
Many families will want to move north to Canada and doubtlessly people will suffer. Thus, we have to be very cautious. Maybe status quo is not so bad.
Outside the UK, in Europe, everybody is happy with Brexit.
The enemies of the EU are happy but soon they will cry.
The Europhiles are happy to see the UK imploding and a real case of how the European Union has won this “war”.
Outside of Europe, like in the USA, they are clueless about what is really going on in Europe.
Best Regards from Europe
“Yes, the Government will be able to take back democratic control of immigration policy, with a balanced and humane points-based system to suit the needs of business and industry.”
A telling comment on how the Toraigh and Republican parties view immigration; movement of people to depress wages.
Australia has a points system which only covers 23% immigrants. The fact is Australia has a QUOTA
The Constitution Unit is not exhaustive to my mind. It is clear that Art 50 is the mechanism under VCLT 1969 and I doubt the EU will cause much trouble – public noise aside – since the UK takes in $50 billion more than it exports. Its exports to the EU are overstated by 11% by the Antwerp-Rotterdam Effect. Exports to Netherlands are largely oil to Rotterdam – I take it Netherlands will still import oil ? To Belgium it is N Sea Gas through The Connector in Summer to Belgian storage tanks and secondly, gold.
The imports to the UK are mainly cars. Bavaria depends on the UK market – BMW sells 14% production to UK, Audi also. Mercedes has a No2 market in UK. Siemens depends on UK. If Bavaria suffers as the Net Contributor to the German States it will seek to cut its transfers. Three German states fund the Republic – Bayern, BW, Hessen – without them most of East Germany goes bust including Berlin.
The absolute twaddle posted online and spouted in media is worthless. Denmark and Netherlands cannot exist without the UK nor can Eire. The UK is a major food importer, Denmark controls the bacon market, Netherlands farmers own much of East Anglia farming. BreXit will tear the coastal nations away from the EU just as China will break up into coastal exports and hinterland.
BreXit is the ONLY chance to rebalance the economy away from The City before the Endgame Crash takes everything down.
This isn’t anywhere as simple as you suggest. Economic rationality has not prevailed in how the Eurozone dealt with Greece and with getting to unified banking regulations (and many other issues…). They’ve got the worst of all possible worlds with the latter right now.
First, you ignore the political imperative of not encouraging other separatist movements. Some of the key actors, such as France, see that as paramount. Second, the the UK is running a massive current account deficit, and that includes trade in services. The Europeans, particularly the French, would love to take a chunk out of the City.
Third, you act as if the interests of the (comparatively few) countries who depend on exports will prevail. Article 50 requires various approvals. This won’t be a German-only deal.
Fourth, I don’t know if you read our extensive coverage on Greece last year. We were virtually the only site to call it correctly, so we have a good track record on reading fraught multiparty political/economic negotiations. The relationship between the parties is already hostile. It’s going to get worse as the UK takes its time, which it will. If the UK does not find a way to back away from a Brexit (and a lot of people are arguing with me privately that they will…I think the situation is too fluid now to make firm calls, but I don’t see enough messaging to soften up the electorate for that to be a real plan yet) and is perceived to be slow in pulling Article 50 (which seems inevitable, but the EU is already getting very antsy), the negotiating atmosphere will be poisonous. The US does not have any stellar negotiators on its side. I don’t have a reading on the various EU foreign ministers, but their remarks so far don’t give one much confidence. Greece proves how the perception that one side is dealing in bad faith is fatal to negotiations.