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2016 Election Night Live Blog/Open Thread

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By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Here’s the timing:

Most of the US will have to wait for polling stations to close – typically between 19:00 EST (00:00 GMT) and 20:00 EST (01:00 GMT) – for state projections.

As for the final result? Stay glued to your phone or TV or set your alarm for 23:00 EST (04:00 GMT). That’s when West Coast polls close and history suggests a winner’s declared. It was bang on the hour in 2008, and 15 minutes later in 2012.

Of course, if you go further back in history, 2004 was a nailbiter. I remember very well going to bed after the Kerry campaign said they’d challenge the result based on Ohio, and getting up in the morning to find out they’d caved. And of course election 2000 was what it was.

There will be many sites tracking the results as they come in; here’s Politico’s for the presidency (they also have the House and the Senate). It’s impossible to know which one is the best until data actually appears; I prefer maps with results as they come in by county. And speaking of counties…

The final RCP averages put Clinton ahead in the national popular vote by 3.3%. However, with Trump ahead in Florida (0.02%), North Carolina (1%), and Clinton only ahead by 0.5% in New Hampshire, it still looks like a horse race, to me. (Of course, I may have become counter-suggestible to the idea that Clinton has it in the bag because almost the entire political class is yammering that she does.)

Anyhow, if indeed this is a horse race — and if our famously free press doesn’t simply decide to call it — we’ll be up late waiting for county data in the states that are close (presumably swing states like Florida, North Carolina, and New Hampshire). So here is a table of the counties that various sources regard as key:

NPR AP MarketWatch Politico
Arizona Maricopa Maricopa
Colorado Jefferson Jefferson Arapahoe, Jefferson
Florida Hillsborough Duval, Hillsborough, Miami-Dade Escambia, Orange Miami-Dade
Georgia Gwinnett Gwinnett
Maine Maine Second
Iowa Cedar
Michigan Oakland Macomb Oakland
Nebraska Omaha
Nevada Washoe Clark Clark
New Hampshire Hillsborough Hillsborough Hillsborough, Rockingham
North Carolina Watauga New Hanover, Wake, Watauga Wake Wake
Ohio Montgomery Belmont, Hamilton Hamilton Mahoning
Pennsylvania Bucks Chester, Philadelphia Bucks, Westmoreland Bucks, Chester, Delaware and Montgomery.
Texas Tarrant
Utah Weber Salt Lake
Virginia Loudoun Loudoun Fairfax, Loudoun, Prince William
Wisconsin Racine Brown Waukesha

As you can see, all the sources differ, both on the states that are important, and the counties within the states! NPR uses the concept of “bellwether counties,” debunked by Edward Tufte in today’s Water Cooler. Politico includes both Maine and Nebraska because they are not “winner take all” states. Anyhow, the purpose of the table really isn’t analytical; if you hear the name of country in coverage, you can check this table for it, and then click the column headers (NPR, AP, MarketWatch, and Politico) to find a information on that country.

Of course, everything might already be “decided” by the time this post launches (assuming, of course, that Putin doesn’t take down the Internet). But I doubt that.

Oh, I’m not sure what the appropriate substance abuse game would be. But if you hear “healing,” or “coming together,” feel free to take a big hit!

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About Lambert Strether

Readers, I have had a correspondent characterize my views as realistic cynical. Let me briefly explain them. I believe in universal programs that provide concrete material benefits, especially to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime example, but tuition-free college and a Post Office Bank also fall under this heading. So do a Jobs Guarantee and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can deliver on such programs, because the two are different flavors of neoliberalism (“Because markets”). I don’t much care about the “ism” that delivers the benefits, although whichever one does have to put common humanity first, as opposed to markets. Could be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don’t much care, as long as the benefits are delivered. To me, the key issue — and this is why Medicare for All is always first with me — is the tens of thousands of excess “deaths from despair,” as described by the Case-Deaton study, and other recent studies. That enormous body count makes Medicare for All, at the very least, a moral and strategic imperative. And that level of suffering and organic damage makes the concerns of identity politics — even the worthy fight to help the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton’s wars created — bright shiny objects by comparison. Hence my frustration with the news flow — currently in my view the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the other by out-of-power liberals and their allies in the State and in the press — a news flow that constantly forces me to focus on matters that I regard as of secondary importance to the excess deaths. What kind of political economy is it that halts or even reverses the increases in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I am also very hopeful that the continuing destruction of both party establishments will open the space for voices supporting programs similar to those I have listed; let’s call such voices “the left.” Volatility creates opportunity, especially if the Democrat establishment, which puts markets first and opposes all such programs, isn’t allowed to get back into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I love the tactical level, and secretly love even the horse race, since I’ve been blogging about it daily for fourteen years, but everything I write has this perspective at the back of it.

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979 comments

  1. NotTimothyGeithner

    Evan Bayh will remain loathsome private citizen Evan Bayh probably of Virginia. Hahaha. I might watch his concession speech. I’ll play it on cloudy days.

  2. Another Anon

    I heard that Sanders is ahead in the polls in Vermont because write-ins count. Does anyone know more about this ? If so, this could potentially deny either of the demopubs
    an electoral vote majority.

      1. MayM

        This rumor has been circulating on my facebook feed all day. I’m not sure where it came from since the polls have shown Hillary Clinton winning handily.
        http://digital.vpr.net/post/vpr-poll-issues-races-and-full-results#stream/0

        According to Seven Days, Clinton has captured 56% of the vote so far with write-in candidates (presumably most of these are votes for Bernie) only garnering 7% of the total votes. I think it’s likely that Vermont will have a larger percentage of write-in votes than usual, but almost impossible that he would beat Clinton. http://www.sevendaysvt.com/

        As for the other Vermont races, Sue Minter is significantly behind Republican Phil Scott in the gubernatorial race, but Progressive David Zuckerman is ahead in the Lt. Gov race. TJ Donovan is way ahead in the AG race. He is unknown outside the state, but an incredibly progressive candidate who favors restorative justice and advocates for expanding the social safety net from a law and order perspective (he’s a prosecutor).

        You can follow all the Vermont results at the Secretary of State’s website:
        https://vtelectionresults.sec.state.vt.us/Index.html#/state

  3. pretzelattack

    i’ll take several in advance, to kill the pain. i’m just waiting to find out how screwed the country will be, and by whom.

    1. abyIWannBeElectedNormal

      And if I am elected
      I promise the formation of a new party
      A third party, the Wild Party!
      I know we have problems,
      We got problems right here in Central City,
      We have problems on the North, South, East and West,
      New York City, Saint Louis, Philadelphia, Los Angeles,
      Detroit, Chicago,
      Everybody has problems,
      And personally, I don’t care. Cooper

  4. craazyboy

    Well, I think the Ds will let CA vote this time, if they find out they need the 55 electoral votes. That makes for a long night.

    1. Barmitt O'bamney

      I’d buy a t shirt two sizes too large for me emblazoned with BERNIE BRO front and back and wear it every day.

      Not really fond of the ol’ Sheepdog anymore, but that wouldn’t stop me. It would infuriate all the right people.

    2. Kokuanani

      Yeah, if you look at a number of these “close” states, the Johnson votes could make the difference for a Clinton win, but I don’t hear any “Johnson stole the election from Clinton” [a la Nader/Gore.

  6. Lamont Cranston

    I took a hit each for just reading “healing,” & “coming together,” (direct quotes)

    1. craazyboy

      Since the process has been brought up, and there is lots of time to kill this evening (pacing yourself is recommended) here’s last Saturday’s SNL Trump&Hillary sketch.

      At the very end is the SNL version of the healing process. Trump and Hillary make up, hold hands, and go out to the Streets of New Yawk to hug the other candidates little supporters.

      I used to like Baldwin’s Trump thing, but the whole political slant of this sketch was getting rather gag inducing. Especially Baldwin having premature kiss with an FBI official.

      http://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-live/video/hillary-clintondonald-trump-cold-open/3421101

  7. Monist Lisa

    Meanwhile snapshots discovered in a Palm Beach thrift store reveal that Trump was an involved and loving father to at least his first three, including time on diaper duty. His claim that he had never changed a diaper was due to 1) amnesia, 2) macho posturing, or 3) part of his role-playing to boost HRC?

    Nothing is what it seems … head hurts …

  8. johnnygl

    Trump might be able to hang on in fl, we have a horse-race after all….and a lead in VA? That’s not going to hold, is it?

    OH and NC still early.

    1. Lambert Strether Post author

      Trump won’t win VA. Too many national security types in the suburbs round Washington, IMNSHO. A more “muscular” foreign policy wins out over the classification problems with her mail.

      1. Chris

        I agree, but from the contractors and security types I know, they’re all pissed at Her. However, with either of the major party candidates, they’re likely to do just fine. So it’s probably not a real anger.

      2. NotTimothyGeithner

        Too many people with hideous mortgages for their incomes in Nova. There might not be many “deplorables”, but everyone must be In hideous debt. Any change to federal spending is a major threat up there.

        1. Octopii

          LOL – like me, riding the gravy train and paying for the privilege. But I did not vote for either of them.

    2. Waldenpond

      Last I saw 91% and he’s ahead with Broward out. I thought Broward was D territory? Seems like Clinton would pull it out?

  9. Kurt Sperry

    My post-2008, post-partisan self has managed a calm equanimity on these Presidential election nights that my old partisan self could only look on in envy at. I’m just not even slightly emotionally invested in either candidate in the way I once was. It’s nice. Que sera, sera. I’m more interested in local issues that whose results won’t be known until tomorrow.

    2. MojaveWolf

      I fear for the whole world no matter who wins, but omg I never knew schadenfreude could taste so good. I’m drunk off it from the Hillbot anguish, even if it’s prolly only temporary.

      Still worried about various props and races with actual good choices vs bad ones.

        1. OpenThePodBayDoorsHAL

          I think the institutions are much more important than one candidate over another, and unfortunately Americans were given the choice of a ridiculous lewd blowhard bigot TV showman or a criminal.

          Start with the RICO Act, work your way through the Espionage Act, then onto obstruction of justice, campaign finance laws, money laundering laws, whatever law it is that prohibits transfer of weapons to terror states, then onto tax law (Chelsea tax-free foundation wedding), then you might throw in perjury, and that’s before you get to the “technically legal but entirely unethical” stuff like pay-to-play, paying for violence at Trump rallies, raping the poorest countries on Earth with sweetheart “charity” deals, influence peddling at the FBI and Justice, etc etc etc. It’s a smorgasbord.

    3. Waldenpond

      I’m used to it. CA takes so long to count we won’t know some items for days. Sitting here with a batch of chocolate martinis. I so rarely get the candidate I support or legislation, ban the death penalty and decriminalize marijuana and I will actually have had a pretty good election.

    4. Steeeve

      Likewise. TV off, Steely Dan record on, will check in on some State and local results in the next couple days. I’m sure the rest will find a way to beat me over the head soon enough.

      1. Mo's Bike Shop

        Big Data? Lotta tossup to delectate. I still get GEICO snail mail. I remember the confidence of 1980.

  11. redleg

    Normally I’m pretty excited on ejection night (excellent autocomplete fail), win or lose. This time it feels more like a close friend’s funeral. Catch 22.
    To quote the amazing Spent, “excuse me while I drink myself to death.”

    1. abynormal

      Normally isn’t Normal. i should know i’m missing chunks…
      If you are different from the rest of the flock, they bite you.
      O’Sullivan, The Next Room

  12. kareninca

    Where are people looking for voting results? I keep going to Drudge, which links to the NYT results. I’m not thrilled to be using the NYT. Is there anything better?

  13. tongorad

    I feel like listening to The Smiths tonight.

    In my life
    Why do I give valuable time
    To people who don’t care if I live or die?

    Heaven knows I’m miserable now…

  14. abynormal

    uh this was reported around 5pm today: “Having travelled for the past three weeks from its base in Severomorsk, the Russian naval group in the Mediterranean, headed by the Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier, dubbed by Reuters the “Largest Naval Force Since The Cold War” has arrived in Syria, and as RT reports, is preparing an offensive against militants on the outskirts of Aleppo, Syria, according to reports citing a source in the Defense Ministry.

    The strikes will be launched “in the nearest hours” and will target the distant outskirts of Aleppo, the source said, adding that there are no civilian-populated areas nearby.

    Jets from the Admiral Kuznetsov, the Peter the Great battle cruiser and other military ships in the battle group equipped with precision weapons will take part in the operation, Interfax and Gazeta.ru reported on Tuesday, citing a source in Russia’s Defense Ministry.”

    1. Praedor

      So long as they wrap Aleppo before Her Warlordness takes office. Can’t go starting WW3 after Syria is a done deal by the time hey finger gets near The Button.

    2. Andrew Watts

      Why can’t Putin wait until after the US presidential election? Doesn’t he know how important it is! /sarc

      I’m guessing that no matter who wins, whether it’s Trump or Clinton, Syria and it’s allies will be in a position to dictate a fait accompli by the time the next president is sworn in. The whole no-fly zone sounded like a bluff pre-2013 and was confirmed to be a bluff in 2013 by no less than Douglas Laux. Who was the CIA officer in charge of that failed op. Post-Russian intervention it’s a pipedream that demonstrates how out of touch with reality Washington is or how desperate and humiliated it is.

      I’ve never understood the assertion that Putin favors Trump over HIllary. Trump is like a unpredictable and erratic Nixon on steroids. Hillary is an open book. If anything the Russians favor predictable stability or predictable instability over that.

      1. Synoia

        NATO is sending 300,000 troops to Ukraine in January. I’d look for a spring surprise on Crimea and Donbass.

        My son-in-law was activated at the beginning of November.

  15. Matt Alfalfafield

    Been watching Faux News, and they’ve been drilling down into county-level data in Florida with the help of (*retch, gag*) Karl Rove, and to hear them tell it, it REALLY ain’t lookin’ good for Clinton. Add in the fact that Virginia still hasn’t been called (and Trump is LEADING?!?), and all of a sudden all those Dem triumphalists are starting to look mighty misinformed…

    1. pretzelattack

      rove took a hit to his machiavelli of the modern age status, when he was so shocked the repubs lost ohio. but i hope you’re right. some chaos might come a bit faster, in that case.

      1. Jeff

        Miami-Dade: HRC 63.58, DT 34.18; 92.91% precincts reporting
        AP (I think) has a live feed which I found in Ohio; bottom of the page, click and play.
        But NY is given as a ‘HRC win’ with only 1.43% precincts reporting.

      2. redleg

        Dems cheating yet? I’m waiting for the mismatched exit poll- vote tally like we saw repeatedly in the primary.
        I imagine every close race will go to Dear Leader Hillary whether she has the votes or not.

    3. hunkerdown

      Temper slightly with the knowledgelurid speculation that Karl Rove had his fix taken out of Ohio in 2012 (dubiously attributed to Anonymous) and embarrassed himself on live television in the process.

      1. Kurt Sperry

        That was delicious to watch, even though it hardly mattered policy-wise whether Rmoney or Obama won.

        1. OIFVet

          Schadenfreude is to be enjoyed under any and all circumstances, because the next day is bound to suck.

          1. sleepy

            I’m not unhappy that Hillary is losing, but the prospect of a repub president, house, and senate is not something I look forward to.

            1. OIFVet

              Me neither, but for brief, glorious moment I would like to enjoy Clinton getting her own punishment. Not much of one, all things considered, but I will take whatever I can.

            2. ScottS

              I look forward to Republicans having to vote on an Obamacare repeal that wouldn’t be automatically vetoed. Then what will they do? I’ve had a pet theory that Republicans will pass socialized health care on accident. We are one step closer.

  16. shinola

    Local TV news is predicting 80% registered voter turnout for my mid-western suburban county. That’s rather remarkable they say. Very red county in a very red state (Ks.)

    But Hillary took Guam, so it’s all over now. Ya know – “So goes Guam, so goes…”

      1. clinical wasteman

        The detainees of Camp Guano can’t vote, nor can the Melanesians really, not under their bankruptcy dissection — sorry, protection — terms. The detention center administrators all wrote in Sir Joh Bjelke-Petersen [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joh_Bjelke-Petersen].

    1. NotTimothyGeithner

      Generally, write-ins aren’t “counted” immediately if their number is small or there isn’t a public write In campaign. Since Sanders wasn’t connected to writing his name, they won’t count while the have to work on other races.

  18. ginnie nyc

    I am following the numbers via ZH (popular vs. elector count) and yes, the Drudge front page (with number links directly to NBC). At this middling hour, DJT has VA and has inched ahead in Ohio and FL. La, is this possible? One hopes.

    2. Barmitt O'bamney

      I honestly doubt he would be allowed to win, even if he won. I don’t think I want him to win, but I’m quite positive I don’t want Hillary to win. If Trump actually did win, and I’m not sure he really wants to, every step would be taken to be certain that he did not cross the threshold of winning. It would be still “undecided”, results unavailable, certifications not issued as judges are still poring over the results. I expect it would be like the Shanghaied Florida vote in 2000, but going on in several states simultaneously. Even his own party doesn’t want him to win. Republican Secretaries of State, so proficient in stealing elections, could prove to be Hillary’s ace in the hole.

      1. Praedor

        If Trump pulls it off the fix will be to declare that it was invalid because it was due to “Russian hacking”. It’s win-win for the Dems because they get Hillary installed AND they get a pretext to go to full war.

        1. craazyboy

          They’ll announce write in candidate Judy The Police Bunny won by a narrow margin and outsource the public governance interface for the country to Disney. The Deep State will handle all functional tasks from now on.

            1. River

              No, they won’t be right. If Hilary hadn’t created the server to begin with she wouldn’t have had the problem to begin with.

                1. blowncue

                  In any sport, the QB or the pitcher would have been pulled at the equivalent moment. The Access Hollywood tape came too early. The letter came too late.

      3. jrs

        yea I don’t think I want him to win either, it’s quite dreadful in the house is on fire and burning down way, but Hillary ugh it’s quite dreadful in a the house is built right over the San Andreas way.

  19. Lambert Strether Post author

    Little Marco, that slippery little scut, survived a challenge from the horrid Patrick Murphy. With the Bayh loss, the DSCC isn’t having a good night, so far.

    1. Mo's Bike Shop

      As a Floridian, I’m dubious about a Democrat winning a state-wide election. –Bill Nelson does not dissuade me from this Belief.

  20. barrisj

    Whoa, can it be true? The Russkies hacked it for the Donald? Pollsters taking it up the bum…only explanation, what?

    2. Kokuanani

      It is interesting to see both the “media types” [Rachael Maddow, Chris Matthews] and the “political types” breaking into a sweat as a Trump victory moves from fantasy land towards possibility. I’d love to read the minds of the Republicans, who ought to be cheering for a Repub victory, but have to be thinking, “OMG, we get TRUMP?????”

  22. MojaveWolf

    Just checked in here and on twitter and truthfully am shocked it’s not going more HRC’s way. I can’t get my hopes up this early but it’s difficult not to enjoy the temporary D establishment squirm (sorry, folks who will hate me for this, I don’t want Trump to win but I do want Clinton to lose, and do think Trump is the lesser evil, so hopes up means for Trump or even scary close so Dem establishment are sweating all night and maybe just maybe that closeness will cause them to check their plans on TPP or Syria escalation).
    (If anyone cares, Bernie/Tulsi was an official write-in in Cali, I am closer to them than Stein and the Greens didn’t look close to 5% nationally, and Trump has no chance in Cali, so I voted for a candidate I actually like, and yes i feel good about it! If anyone thinks I’m helping Trump, I say to you, good! Shun me at will! And sod off! I am so relieved this is over!)

    Is too early to tell how Senate looks? I actually do want the D’s to take it. Teachout?

    And yay MURPHY IS LOSING BIG YAY!!! Sorry. I don’t like Rubio, but dems seriously need to have every candidate like this get destroyed, so this is a good thing.

    Schadenfreude for the win!

    1. Philman

      I mean, Rubio is a joke, and the DNC picks Murphy to take him down? Trust fund, bought and sold Murphy? I am down in Orange County FL and the Dems really went all out to back Murphy and they had excellent (or at least progressive, like Grayson) alternatives. DNC deserves what they get.

      2. JSM

        Months before the primary they even started an ethics investigation on Grayson in the House.

        Ethics!

        In the House!

        1. Octopii

          Grayson f’ed up. There was enough ammo (or appearance of ammo) for the other side to bury him. Plus, he doesn’t play nice with the D “in crowd” — they’d never put him in.

      3. John k

        Dnc sees progressives much worse than reps because the masters don’t mind reps, but they hate progressives that want to overturn status who.

    2. juliania

      Oh that makes it close!

      “. . . I don’t want Trump to win but I do want Clinton to lose. . .”

      An imaginary toast to you both! (Poetry, sheer poetry.)

  23. dao

    I won’t be staying up late for the election.

    This whole election cycle, which has been going on for 2+ years, has been just a big distraction.

    Something to get the people worked up over and divert their attention from the fact that nothing is being done to solve any problems.

    What will be the next distraction?

    1. Waldenpond

      Ridiculously long cycle. Was noting that an election takes a billion dollars, buying off media personalities, getting a network on your side, having sycophants in local elections offices to purge your rivals voters… I neglected to note it takes about 18 months for the election and a group would need two years to get the public’s attention on a potential candidate. There is no way anyone is running on the D ticket in 2020, they won’t have a primary. So there needs to be an effective existing group, they need to pick a potential candidate within the next 6 months, line up with an existing third party or try to get on the ballot.

    2. jrs

      yea but the fact nothing is being done to solve any problems and really ANY problems, not the environment, not the job market, not health care, is kind of why people are lashing out and voting any which way.

    3. Ian Ollmann

      I imagine the next distraction will be a Republican sweep and the ensuing mischief. How many of you believe that they will do anything to address the anger felt by the electorate, or will they instead spend their time repealing Obamacare and cutting social programs.

  24. Lambert Strether Post author

    Here’s Florida.

    florida-9-17

    88% in. Looks like Broward County is the laggard, with only 43% counted. (The DOJ is not monitoring Broward). FWIW, the Times has a cute little meter that estimates who will win. Right now, the meter reads “94% Trump.” Wow.

    UPDATE 9:29 The effing meter just flipped to 50% Clinton. Now there’s a little disclaimer: “Results early in the night are volatile.” So why not wait to put the meter up until the results aren’t garbage?

    1. aab

      Broward is where Clinton had her private meeting with the head of the Board of Elections — a nice, probably church-going, African American woman (sorry, given the identity politics propaganda manipulation, I figure it’s relevant). Then there was a reported scandal with that woman’s employees opening and counting absentee ballots early without proper procedures, or something; I can’t tell how much that’s a real scandal and how much that’s a right-wing faux scandal. Sure would be nice to have trustworthy major media outlets to investigate such things.

      Anyway, in anti-Clintonland, it’s believed that Broward is lagging because they need to figure out how many votes to fake/flip to give the state to Clinton. Given what we know about how election rigging works, it seems like a reasonable assumption to me.

      2. Lambert Strether Post author

        I’d like some sourcing on Broward, please. Politifact Florida says it’s third hand from Roger Stone (setting up a lawsuit?). I wouldn’t be quoting Robbie Mook on it either. Thoughts?

        * * *

        Miami Herald:

        Observers are carefully watching the Broward results because it is the bluest county in the state and could determine the outcome for Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in Florida.

        Broward has 600,000 registered Democrats, the highest in the state.

        And no Justice Department monitors, either.

        1. aab

          Sadly, Polifact got corrupted by Clinton money, I believe. It made a bunch of less than truthful calls on Clinton’s behalf throughout the campaign.

          But that was my point: I saw that reported, but not from a mainstream source. And I simply had no mainstream outlet I could turn to either reliably confirm it or disprove it. If the Times or the Post said it was a lie, I wouldn’t trust them. That’s part of our corrupted, low trust society.

          It did seem like a bunch of TV talking heads turned into journalists again tonight. It was interesting. Tapper was great all night. Van Jones, sadly, was not. But I respect Van, and I realize he’s a multi-tier bind.

      1. curlydan

        i get broward at 75% and Miami/Dade at 94%. If Broward is at 75% with 750K votes, there could be another 250K there…all leaning (or maybe I should say “leaning wink wink”) HRC. It’s going to be super tight ala Bush-Gore there

        1. curlydan

          now I see Broward at 98% with Trump still holding a 100K+ lead. About time to call it in the Sunshine state??

    3. Waldenpond

      They did this in the primary. Would leave Clinton districts until last. Back and forth, back and forth, looky there… Clinton won.

      I fully expected polling to be used instead of results so they could get particular states off the board and to hold select districts to force viewers to stay tuned.

    4. Kim Kaufman

      I’m still working the poll in Los Angeles. Been a long day and we’ve been very busy. A lot of women wearing white which is apparently some sort of solidarity for Hillary. Glad I wore almost all black. Hard to believe that it looks like Trump is leading.

        1. aab

          Dana Bash was in white on CNN. Gotta say, she did better than I expected while I was watching. We ended up watching a lot of CNN because they were doing a fairly good job. I haven’t watched that much CNN in many, many years.

          Melania wore white for the acceptance speech. Great outfit. Her fashion snark is quite impressive. That pussy-bow blouse was its own form of genius.

  27. pdehaan

    Volatility in gold and futures on Bloomberg’s graphs. Depression and desperate chasing of the ‘missing’ Florida and Ohio votes on CNN.

  29. Kurt Sperry

    Rove is doing a little runway foaming himself right now in FOX. No irrational exuberance there.

  30. fresno dan

    OK, 6:33 pm here in Fresno, Ca – I’m watching CNN and it pretty much is just number and I have to admit, Trump is making it tighter and looking better in many states that I thought he would be demolished in.
    No doubt, I under estimated the antipathy that Hillary is held in by so, so many….

    just a little, I am beginning to feel like the dog that actually caught the car….

    1. NotTimothyGeithner

      One phenomenon I found was how easy it was to get sometimes and non voters from poor areas to vote if you bothered to ask them because they are already on board. Even though they may be low information voters, they notice when candidates ask for their votes and when candidates demand loyalty.

      Bourgeois Democrats consider watching an Aaron Sorkin TV show organizing. They might have the latest Beyonce album’s name memorized to show how hip they are, but If they saw a real black person in their neighborhoods, they would call the police. This is always the problem when democrats lose. Winning might take a few cycles. Obama really ran years worth of work into the ground in places. The 50 state strategy’s ideas were being done in various races. Dean didn’t come down from the mountain.

    2. MojaveWolf

      Another great line, though it will be Trump who caught the car without meaning to and doesn’t know what to do with it (or the greyhound who caught the rabbit, if anyone watches Westworld). I don’t think he wanted to lose but I’m not sure he wants to win, either. Just please by all powers that be if he wins, let him really run it himself and not turn it over to Pence. That would be …potentially catastrophic. Then again, is there any likely result that is NOT potentially catastrophic?

      2. Steeeve

        Yeah, still trying to figure out whether Trump would actually do the job for 4 years. Although I guess there would be lots of fun toys to play with, like the military, media, etc.

  32. Andrew Watts

    Isn’t everybody relieved that the sane and thoughtful Democratic Party found it’s inner Angleton and generated neo-McCarthyism during the campaign? If history is any guide that works out great for Russia! I only say that because I’m secretly a Russian spy who is doggedly pursuing Moose and Squirrel.

    Why isn’t Frostbite Falls on any maps?

    1. redleg

      If Trump wins, think of it as harsh medicine to eliminate an advanced, teeming case of parasitic, squidlike blood flukes that the Dems contracted on wall street in roughly 1991.

      If trump doesn’t win, think of it as an ongoing advanced, teeming case of parasitic, squidlike blood flukes that the Dems contracted on wall street in roughly 1991.

      1. jrs

        well also if Trump wins Dems might retake Congress in 2 years. Nah I don’t really imagine he would be that popular if somehow he actually got power and we are going into a recession regardless of who wins and the winner will take the fall.

        1. NotTimothyGeithner

          What is the state of Team Blue? If It’s the Democratic Party, sure. Let’s be honest, they ran the same race in 2014 that they did just now. It’s a wine drinking book club where they read books they should have read in middle school and still miss the point run amok.

          Where are they going to find candidates? No one will give a dime now. Then of course, the Senate cycle is not good for Team Blue in 2018.

          Hillary might lose despite a billion dollars, the media, demographics, universal name recognition, and Donald Trump. He’s a teetotaler. You can’t even have a beer with the man.

          2018? Donald Trump might be President. Short of Team Blue finding the Flying Spaghetti Monster and standing In the public square In prostration, they are dead.

          1. redleg

            You say that like it’s a bad thing. Let the Dems join the Whigs if at all possible.
            Nature abhors a vacuum, and it applies to politics too. Something new will fill the vacuum but without much of the baggage.

  34. Jay M

    Hill and Huma chill, Jay Z playing in the background:

    It’s a lot of money in my sentence
    Hittin’ toward a mil’,lip a, written I kill like that
    Chick baby one-two cat, yeah, I do that
    Aint’ no stoppin’ the champagne from poppin’
    The drawers from droppin’, the law from watchin’-I hate them
    Politics as usual

    Huma: So is Bill out of the way.
    HRC: Yeah, the energizer has a lot of free time now.
    Huma: Tony is learning horse back riding in rehab.
    HRC: Why are there logs burning on the teevee?
    Huma: We have been sitting here since Nov. 8

  37. Laruse

    I think if pollsters actually drove around the localities they were inquiring in, I think their results would be vastly different. Here in Chesterfield County, VA (just south of Richmond), I only ever saw ONE single HRC sign in a yard. But Trump signs (and even more tellingly, David Brat signs) were everywhere. My county is heavily favoring Trump with almost 90 percent of the votes counted. That is NOT remotely what national polls called for.

    1. NotTimothyGeithner

      Pollsters are conservative by nature. Its math but not difficult math. Its safe. They work in a field where there is less turnover than the Soviet politburo.

      Also, the daily tracking polls aren’t done, and that creates a perception problem of who is In the pool and who is out.

      Official Washington and its apparatus is a conservative, don’t rock the boat town. It’s always been, and so are it’s reporters and stenographers.

  39. allan

    Electability [Paul Krugman in February]

    If you are still on the fence in the Democratic primary, or still persuadable, you should know that Vox interviewed a number of political scientists about the electability of Bernie Sanders, and got responses ranging from warnings about a steep uphill climb to predictions of a McGovern-Nixon style blowout defeat. And all of them dismiss current polls as meaningless.

    You are, of course, free to disagree. But you need to carefully explain why you disagree — what evidence do you have suggesting that these scholars’ conclusions, which are based on history and data, not just gut feelings, are wrong? …

    Bookmark it, Danno.

    1. jrs

      Well what if Trump beat Sanders in an alternate future, then we would just have irrefutable proof that the country doesn’t want a New Dealer social democratic (which Sanders is and Hillary is not) over a right wing populist reactionary (Trump), which wouldn’t surprise me at all really. The country is not that consistently left. Reagan won two terms afterall.

      I want one, lots here do, but … That is not necessarily what most people want. Maybe millennials someday …

      1. John k

        Bernie consistently best trump in polls. This election is about people wanting real change, plus of course everybody hates the banks. He would have crushed trump.
        But the banks hated Bernie above all others, including trump. Ignoring polls and insisting on her was just following bank’s orders.

    2. Cojo

      Wouldn’t it be great if NC made a compilation of all the punditry epic fails during this election cycle. Kind of like a greatest misses album. Then again, to gloat is unbecoming.

    1. shargash

      The collapse of the Democratic party may be more complete than the collapse of the Blairite Labour party, and for much the same reasons. Couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch of folks. And they don’t even have the SNP to blame it on.

      1. Marco

        Does anyone really predict a serious blood-battle within Team D? How are they going to explain this disaster?

            1. MojaveWolf

              I obviously am not the whole left, or even the vast left, and I can’t really see how my Cali write-in hurt the poor widdle DNC, but hey . . .

              If anyone in the DNC wishes to give me blame/credit for Hillary’s defeat, I HAPPILY ACCEPT IT! I am glad she lost, glad I don’t have to worry so much about WWIII because of the political establishment’s insane idiot desire for a showdown with Russia, glad there’s a chance to stop the TPP, so happy all the establishment pundits I have come to loathe feel all shell-shocked, and so so so happy the DNC is punished for cheating us out of an actually GOOD candidate in the primaries. And oh yes, I’m happy all you hypocritical phonies in the DNC and all your media lapdogs got your tail kicked tonight!

              This leftist hereby officially declares himself very happy to take all the blame for Hillary’s defeat, and all the credit for Trump’s win.

              Also, for real, I really do believe Trump was the lesser evil, but even if he wasn’t, you guys should quit insisting on giving us crap candidates and running on the platform of “the other side is worse.” And you guys should quit running on a platform of “vote for us or we will call you names.” Give us good candidates with good issues who actually believe in most of what they say, or I will keep helping your bad phony scumbucket candidates lose.

              Hey, if I’ve got all this power to swing the election, they better listen to me. Start supporting actual worthwhile people who work for the good of humanity and the biosphere, or I will make sure you guys lose every time out. #FUDNC

        3. Praedor

          The Dems,never fail to blame their losses on not being Republican enough. They won’t self correct by running left towards Bernie, they’ll run right AGAIN.

      2. sleepy

        Amazing that just 12 hours ago the pundits were all proclaiming the demise of the republican party and the need for it to reassess and reform itself in face of what was deemed to be party-killing demographic changes.

    2. John

      If that happens say goodbye to SS and Medicare and public schools and pensions and public roads and public lands and living wages in America.

      Thanks
      Democrats

      1. abynormal

        you can say goodbye to All those safety nets No Matter who wins…to the rich, we aren’t making them any money any mo.

        Tyranny is like the electric wiring in an old house. A tyrant dies, the new tyrant takes possession, and all he has to do is drop the switch. ~le Carré

        1. neo-realist

          Those safety nets will go a lot quicker w/ republicans controlling all 3 branches. Dems only believe in safety net death by a thousand cuts, a chained cpi increase here, a benefit cut there.

            1. Praedor

              Hah, you had me for a second. The Dems don’t filibuster. It’s “unseemly” and “the people want them to work with the GOP”.

    3. jrs

      yea he could if he were inclined have a real jobs program or something (call it infrastructure, call it whatever) in the way a Dem never could (just because the R party has so much opposition power alone). Now whether he would ever want such a thing is anyone’s guess pretty much.

  42. Matt Alfalfafield

    Megan Kelly asks whether a Trump win would spell the end of the polling industry as we know it…hard to disagree with her.

  43. Quanka

    This looks bad for Hillary across the board. Nothing is final and there are sure to be re-counts … but how does HRC win if she loses FL, NC, OH, MI, VA(!!), NH … the only state outside the acela corridor she looks to win is IL.

    Man there must be a lot of stupid racists out there in flyover country. Maybe those establishment critters need to venture out to real america now and again.

    I don’t know whether to be happy or terrified.

    2. Waldenpond

      Look for which counties are out. I was just noting that during the primary the media would hold back regions favorable to Clinton…. the suspense holds the viewers.

      1. Lambert Strether Post author

        The Times gives county level data. Not sure if others do; I haven’t had time to look.

        On the media, I see the logic but I distrust monocausal explanations for anything. Included in the mix must be local officialdom (and never attribute to malice that which can be explained by stupidity….)

      2. Katharine

        That’s not necessarily the media. Large urban areas have always been slower to report, which is why early returns don’t necessarily predict the outcome.

    3. JSM

      This was JSM”s intuitive feeling if the counts/tallies were not meddled with. Dems backed up into the Northeast and WA, OR, & CA, some blue spots in between in IL & MN – just not enough. We shall see.

      That might be what you get when you ride roughshod over the will of the people. You know, the people you’re gonna depend on to vote for you.

        2. Laughingsong

          +1000

          Made me blow water thru my nose (yeah, yeah – water – I was home sick today with bad digestion… I will catch up when I’m better)

    5. neo-realist

      Man there must be a lot of stupid racists out there in flyover country. Maybe those establishment critters need to venture out to real america now and again.

      One can watch any open phone episode of C-SPAN’s Washington Journal involving a police brutality/shooting case involving a black person getting shot, and much of the real america comes out of the woodwork, “he should have done what the officer told him too.”, “He deserved what he got.” A lot of American’s expressing their id through a Trump vote.

      1. Lambert Strether Post author

        Plenty of id exposure going on all round. The NPR tote-baggers are more genteel, but they too have ids. And those that are members of the 10% have real power, unlike people who hang out in C-SPAN comment sections.

  44. Parallell Street

    How about the ballot questions? Any interesting questions out there? The questions in Massachusetts were:
    1-legalizing marijuana
    2-adding more slot machines at the casino
    3-more Charter schools
    4-better conditions for animals for better food and better animal rights

  46. fresno dan

    6:52 Fresno time….
    CNN reports the percentage of the vote, and Virginia is much, much more in contention than I would have thought. Jake Tapper (or is it “Trapper?) said that some of the polling firms are looking pretty bad….
    I guess this is why we actually HOLD the election….

    2. jhallc

      Michigan looks like it could go Trump. IRC Bernie Sanders got a surprise win out of MI in the primaries. Not sure why the Hillary camp was so confident it would go her way. My guess is a lot of blue collar democrats/independents are going for Trump.

  48. Lambert Strether Post author

    Hoo boy. Virginia is tighter than I thought 90% reporting:

    va_9-52

    The laggard county is Prince William, with 20% reporting. Prince William is in the table above, so here is what Politico has to say:

    With a 7 p.m. poll closing time, Virginia will be the first battleground state to report results. Ignore the early numbers and wait until around 8:15 p.m., when Northern Virginia’s behemoth, Fairfax County, begins to report its numbers. If Clinton is winning big in populous Fairfax and carrying Loudoun and Prince William counties in the affluent and highly educated NoVa region, she’s on a trajectory to win the state’s 13 electoral votes.

    Clinton stomped Trump in Fairfax, and she won Loudon handily, so she’s still on track for a win. But yikes

    2. Laruse

      Looks like HRC is going to edge out in VA after all. But not by the 20+% that had been anticipated. Still, close enough to switch again.

  49. curlydan

    Stein at 423K votes at 9:58EST…Almost at her 2012 total (470K I believe) with less than half the vote counted. Maybe she can hit 1M?? I’d say that’s still a disappointment. Change is tough for those loyal Dems.

        2. shinola

          Douglas Co./Lawrence/K.U. -“Moscow on the Kaw” don’cha know.

          Damn hippies!

          Another bong! Moar beer!

    1. NotTimothyGeithner

      He would have won big. Honesty and treating people with respect matter from a candidate, and more importantly Meg Whitman types wouldn’t have been his target voter. There are probably tons of votes sitting on the table because Hillary spent her time focused on the people who like to drink cocktails and discuss political theory instead of people who knock doors and discuss why government can be better.

    3. Punxsutawney

      He would have won quite handily I think. He walked the talk on economic policy his entire career, and that matters in places like Michigan. Not to mention his sincerity. Goes a long way, and either you have it or you don’t., and right or wrong, nobody trusts Hillsary.

      1. neo-realist

        He talked the talk on economic policy, but will his cabinet and Pence walk the walk for Main Street? A lot of what Trump said outside of his anti-TPP position was boilerplate republican: Tax cuts for the rich and elimination of regulatory agencies and or big spending cuts for them.

        The voters seem to be showing less dislike for one hustler than the other.

  52. fresno dan

    So, speculation time…
    A Is Trump doing so well because all those pundits who said the Comey email thing had no affect????

    B Or were all those “shy” Trump voters that supposedly didn’t exist….EXIST is droves!

    C or people just hate Hillary…..

    Even if Trump doesn’t prevail, one certainly gets the impression that our media, our government, our “intellegensia” just doesn’t have a clue….
    If Davos Man can’t get this right, maybe some of their theories about free trade are full of sh*t….

    1. curlydan

      I say B. What you say in the office mtg or the dinner party can change once you hit that voting booth

      2. Tvc15

        Maybe people are so angry with the corrupt system which of course Hilary also embodies that they are willing to roll the dice with a carnival barker.

    4. redleg

      D. Polls were rigged to show Dear Leader Hillary leading, making actual vote counts look shockingly inaccurate.

    5. NotTimothyGeithner

      Bad polling methodology and poor organizing of the Democratic base. The difference between 80% and 90% turnout in blue precincts around the state is often the difference between winning and losing. That difference is made up through hard work not TV ads. No one sat at home and went, “I’d have voted for John Kerry if I had seen a few more commercials or heard his name before election day.”

      Your “C” option is why they aren’t squeezing the votes out of every ward.

    6. bob k

      people really really really hate hate hate queen of chaos and her lolita express scumbag husband and probably her super entitled brat daughter too

    7. Pat

      D. Things are bad and have been bad for a majority of Americans for a very long time. They voted.for change in 2008, but got the establishment. There is no more establishment candidate than Clinton. They have once again voted for change.
      They probably won’t get it, but it could be the world’s biggest crap shoot ever.

  53. ginnie nyc

    Wow, NYT is now reporting that PA, at 35%, has flipped margins and now leans Trump. OMG. Despite my 1 family member, not sure about the other.

  54. voislav

    NYT has moved both Pennsylvania (now at 53% Trump) and Michigan (now at 60% Trump) in the Trump column and Wisconsin sliding in the same direction (now only 56% of Clinton win). May turn into a bloodbath before long.

    1. OIFVet

      Too early my Slavic brother, Dane county in WI has barely reported, as have some important PA counties.

    2. Lambert Strether Post author

      Wrong. Here’s the Times. You could be going by the meter, which is not accurate. The vote totals and more importantly the counties tell a different story:

      pa_10-16

      Those white areas in the east are the all-important Philly burbs: MontCo, etc. We have no data from them, and they’re expected to go heavily Clinton.

      Readers, I don’t mean to sound cranky, but “Wow, something happened” with no linky goodness or analysis isn’t a lot of value add.

  55. jawbone

    The effect of a Trump presidency on the Supreme Court does not bear thinking about. At least if I want to sleep.

    I don’t think The Donald actually wants to govern, except for maybe building some really yuge stuff. Maybe in Yellowstone Park or some such place.

    So the actual governance will be by his right wing, maybe even Alt Right, team and buddies. Oh my.

    The only gleam of light is that he just may not go to nuclear war with Russia. But, will he or his administration tackle global warming? The maldistribution of wealth ever upward? Heh, his tax plan gives even more money to the One Percenters.

    Yikes.

    And decent health care?

    The Dems could have treated Sanders fairly; he might have won the nom. And while he hadn’t been trashed by a political opponent, he sure polled extremely well against any of the Repub possibles. Genuine, absolutely sincere populism beats a conman just using populism to get votes every time. Ah, that is water under the bridge. Now we get to live with the consequences. I don’t think we on the left will have much impact on a Trump administration.

    Ooops.

    1. NotTimothyGeithner

      The msm treated Sanders like a side show. He wasn’t trashed because honest and decent people don’t have much with which to be hit with.

      3. Michael Fiorillo

        It will be a regency, with Donnie as the Clown Prince of Media, and the professionals running things behind the scenes. Not a pretty thought when you look at Pence’s record.

      2. pictboy3

        I wouldn’t be too sure of that. If Trump actually pulled out of NATO, it would leave a power vacuum in Europe and could start yet another war that we could get drawn into. It sounds good in the short term, but long term it’s pretty terrifying.

      3. neo-realist

        Your future gleam is a Trump marketing scheme——(paraphrasing) We will win on jobs, we’ll win on health care, we’ll win so much you’ll get bored. About a year from now, me thinks a lot of Americans will be wondering why they brought worthless lottery tickets.

    4. TK421

      But the Dems didn’t treat Bernie faurly, because they don’t stand for what he stands for. They stand for rich wine-bar types who don’t need Medicaid or Social Security. Remember, Obama would have cut those programs if the Republicans let him. So don’t cry for this worthless party.

    5. oh

      I often wonder about those who start wringing their hands about the SC if Trump wins. It assumes that the D’s go to sleep on the R’s nominations ( maybe it’s a valid assumption considering that the D’s allowed Roberts and Alito to get through as well as Biden’s role in allowing Clarence Thomas to be confirmed).

    6. redleg

      But, will he or his administration tackle global warming? The maldistribution of wealth ever upward?

      And Dear Leader Hillary would? Seriously?

  56. Jason Boxman

    I cannot wait for this all to be over, however it ends. We need a long holiday from professional politicians, pundits, and courtiers.

  57. 3.14e-9

    As terrified as I am of the Clintons back in the White House, in the end, I just can’t wish for Trump to win. But I would be thrilled if HRC barely squeaked by and failed to get anything that could be spun as a “mandate” … and if she and her entourage were severely shaken up for a few hours (or days).

    Of course — and others have pointed this out — if he wins, he likely won’t be inaugurated. If he isn’t outright charged with a crime, “17 intelligence agencies” will produce “irrefutable evidence” that Russians hacked the vote. Enough people will believe it that there will be overwhelming popular support to go after Putin.

    I’m biting my nails, but not for the reason most everyone else is.

    1. none

      But I would be thrilled if HRC barely squeaked by and failed to get anything that could be spun as a “mandate”

      George W. Bush didn’t give a shit about how narrowly he got in office by, and ruled like an emperor. HRC or for that matter Trump will do the same. Mandates and margins mean nothing. Landslides are meaningless. Most things in life are not binary, but winning or losing an election is one of the exceptions. Win and rule, or win not and go home. There is no “squeak by”.

  58. Otis B Driftwood

    Just got back from voting after work here in CA. A three page, double-sided ballot with a slew of propositions. Jill Stein. My tenth time voting for President and I’ll be batting 300 when this is over (and I wish I could take back those two votes for WJC and one for BHO). Unless, of course, this thing turns around in a hurry for Stein.

    To make matters worse, as I strolled up the avenue toward my polling station I passed a Clinton campaign office. I hadn’t been by this place in a while and so I was surprised and crossed my arms in a reflexive defense posture as I walked by. A woman seated outside said to me, “Excuse me!?” And I said, “Yes, excuse you,” as I continued on my way.

    I’m not, nor never will be, with Her.

  59. Lambert Strether Post author

    Trump still leads in Florida by ~100K with 99% of the vote counted; Broward massively for Clinton… But not enough?

    florida_10-11

    If Trump, after winning Florida, also wins North Carolina and New Hampshire…

    1. Ted

      I wonder how much the NYT election coverage team is now agonizing about calling Florida for Trump. Will 99.999% of the precincts be enough?

    2. ChrisPacific

      That’s outside hanging chad territory (not by all that much, but still) and also a bigger margin than remaining votes. At best I think Clinton turns it into a Bush-Gore style dead heat, and that’s a stretch.

  60. fresno dan

    7:13 Fresno time
    So CNN says VA is too close to call and FOX calls it for Clinton….hmmmm

    I wish I had a TV where I could watch more than one channel at once…but I could NOT listen to more than one at once, so I guess it isn’t all that useful….

  62. John

    On the bright side, a Republican House, Senate and White House
    means the people will know who to blame as their lives
    get worse and worse in the next 4 years.

    1. Andrew Watts

      By ceding the dominant party’s control over committees that dictate unpopular and undemocratic policies the Republicans and Democrats are able to absolve themselves of responsibility to the electorate. It’s a great system for lobbyists to work to their advantage though.

      I’ve always admired the British system of government but it began to skyrocket during this electoral season. The ability of the House of Commons to institute a vote of no confidence, the permanence of their party and political apparatus at the local level, and one party control over various aspects of governance including committees, policies, and their cabinet makes the British form of government more democratic than here in the good ole USA.

      I can’t honestly imagine a Brexit-like vote for NAFTA. So, we get Trump.

    2. oh

      Instead of trying to fix blame people have to get active right away to help third parties so that the duopoly can be defeated. That means there’s a lot of grass roots work to do to build third parties.

  63. lagamer

    Let me start by saying that I am not a Hillary fan. But, the idea of Trump as POTUS is legitimately scary, and this is starting to feel like a nightmare.

  64. Otis B Driftwood

    I remember eight years ago (now with great sadness) following the election results with my dearest and popping open a bottle of Champagne when the election was called for Obama. So much hope. So much eventual disappointment.

    Tonight, eight years later, I’ve Just got back from voting in CA. A three page, double-sided ballot with a slew of propositions. I voted for Jill Stein. This is now my tenth time voting for President and I’ll be batting 300 when this is over (and I wish I could take back those two votes for WJC and that one eight years ago for BHO).

    To make matters worse, as I strolled up the avenue toward my polling station I passed a Clinton campaign office. I hadn’t been by this place in a while and so I was surprised and crossed my arms in a reflexive defense posture as I walked by. A woman seated outside said to me, “Excuse me!?” And I said, “Yes, excuse you,” as I continued on my way.

    Love the quote above from ChiGal “My biggest fear is that one of them will win”.

  65. John

    What about the American people don’t want millions of foreigners pouring in here
    taking their jobs and the rest of their jobs being sent to slave wage countries
    don’t the Democrats understand?

    1. jawbone

      That was always understood by the Dem Corporatist elites — they just didn’t give a flying fuck about people below a certain level of education and below, oh, the two highest economic quintiles.

  66. JSM

    If Dems lose the presidency don’t forget the lesson that your average deplorable is more politically astute than the entire Democratic establishment.

    E-mini now down 600 points.

    3. Kim Kaufman

      I have heard it’s passed in CA. So everyone can self-medicate through the disaster. Except I no longer smoke pot.

  68. ChiGal in Carolina

    And now I think I will have the pleasure of watching MSM news for the first time since I hastily switched off MSNBC the night of the CA primary so I wouldn’t have to hear Clinton’s premature declaration of victory.

    Can’t wait to see their crestfallen faces. So, so smug. I remember how patronizing Rachel Maddow was about Bernie and how she fawned all over HRC.

    They should have effing paid attention to their base. Even when the last thing you want us the alternative, there’s something satisfying about the moment of comeuppance.

    3. oh

      I’ll never Rahm’s remark about the effing retards. Of course O agreed with that and scoffes at the left wing of the Dem party and I would like to see his sore face too.

    1. JSM

      It’s not the size of the fall, it’s the size (?) of the surprise… or whatever the old adage is. ‘Smart’ money, also in the betting markets… dumber than your average deplorable (again).

  72. jawbone

    If Trump does go to jail or something like that, after taking the oath of office, would he be removed from office? Somehow I don’t see him resigning a al Nixon.

    But a President Pence is very much a 24/7 nightmare.

    Better a Trump we sort of know than the Pence we only know about?

    Actually, given all the Corporatist and Conservative judges on the Federal benches, I doubt he’ll be held responsible for just about anything.

    What a mess.

  73. fresno dan

    Rating the media
    Just my own preferences – I would be curious what most NC’ers are watching

    1 CNN – just numbers
    2. MSNBC – more numbers than I would have thought
    3. FOX – not all that bad but their ideology just makes them say things totally at odds with reality occasionally
    4. Bloomberg – so f*cking annoying….

    Hmmmm – it didn’t even occur to me to look at CBS, NBC, or ABC – I am going to have to find those channels….

    2. Nelson Lowhim

      I’m online. Nytimes, leaning heavily to trump. 538 calling it a tossup and Sam Wang even saying it looks like it’s Trump’s night….

    3. ChiGal in Carolina

      BBC is pretty much the only TV news I watch. I follow the numbers on the Guardian and check in here.

      But right now I am watching MSNBC heh heh

      1. ChiGal in Carolina

        Oh ugh Chris Matthews, still so dismissive of Bernie. And his supporters – “what do these people want? they just want something new, something different, he was never gonna be president, it’s like a kid, they just want SOMETHING”

        2. Cojo

          I caught that too. The Sanders new deal movement was dismissed so now the fuming populist movement has only the alt right outlet to vent, hence tonight’s result. But you will never hear such a mea culpa from cnn, msnbc, or dnc. In the end, the small people will suffer… …again.

        3. Kurt Sperry

          David Axelrod on CNN has pretty well explained the politics of Trump’s surprising showing. This was an election a status quo candidate was almost predestined to lose when faced with a non-status quo opponent. Many, maybe even most, of the people who voted Trump don’t even like him, don’t think he has the temperament to be president. Even that is not enough though, people wanted change and they were damned determined to get it. Another CNN pundit said (paraphrase, probably), “The Sanders-Warren primary for 2020 is starting up as we speak.”

    4. Jerri-Lynn Scofield

      Watching from Calcutta– so switching amongst BBC, Al Jazeera, CNN, and various Indian channels. In India, the US election is not the lead story, BTW. Last night, as of midnight, the government announced the two most widely circulated bank notes, 500 INR and 1000 INR, would be invalid, as of midnight. Only smaller notes (10, 20, 50, 100) still legal tender. This is a move to curb black money. All ATMs shut for two days, banks shut today, when they reopen, people must swap all old notes for new at banks before end of the year. Widespread confusion and chaos at the moment.

      India is a much more cash based system than US– but as a rough comparison, imagine if the USG announced that nothing other than $1 and $5 would be legal tender, effective immediately.

      For what it’s worth, finding BBC and Al Jazeera most informative on US election.

      1. fresno dan

        Jerri-Lynn Scofield
        November 8, 2016 at 10:53 pm

        Didn’t even thing of them – but i don’t think my cable even has BBC or Al Jazeer :(

  74. Ted

    I suppose this comment already lurks in the thread, one of the things that will be interesting to see in the Wednesday morning post-game analysis is just how many constituencies the Democrats threw under the bus or took for granted in going with the Oligarchs, and how many of those voters stayed home as a result.

    1. Charger01

      No. Not even close. That would require several leaps of logic that “they” currently do not possess. Thomas Frank covered this in “Listen, Liberal” – they are actively promoting the Silicon Valley sparkle ponies as the end-all, be-all constituents. They have no stake in average, working class, or heaven forbid those “middle” classes that are simultaneously being squeezed by stagnant wages and wildly inflating medical/education costs. They represent 10%, tops. They do not possess humility or self-reflection. They will blame the Trump bogeyman and call anyone who disagrees as loathsome. Even though the disagreements are valid, it matters not to the Aclea corrior.

  75. Frenchguy

    Trump wins Ohio by 10 pts… That seems big.

    Ps: I wouldn’t worry about the markets. They will have a (very) sad day but mainly because they don’t like surprises. I don’t see how a Republican administration is that bad for them…

      1. Lambert Strether Post author

        A recession is already baked in. Obama reduced the deficit, exactly as Bill Clinton did, leaving his successor to hold the bag of the ensuring recession. So it will be interesting to see if whoever Trump’s equivalent of Larry Summers turns out to be screws up the next stimulus package too.

  76. Pat

    Wow. Almost makes me wish I had access.to Lifetime so I could watch Joy Behar have kittens.

    I guess we now know why Clinton cancelled the fireworks (supposedly planned for before ten according to one report).

    Knew it would be close overall but Virginia… that has me gobsmacked.

      1. Barmitt O'bamney

        It will take them less than a week to start pretending they were hip to the Trump groundswell all along. Their essential nature is to have no essential nature and glom onto whatever looks to be rising and can lift them too. If Hitler won the election even Rachel Maddow would grow a dense bottle brush moustache inside a month.

      2. DJPS

        I’m looking forward to Bill & John on HBO!

        Operative K us not taking the news well on twitter.

        Hillary concession speech too! Can’t wait!

    2. Lambert Strether Post author

      In Virginia, as of now, Clinton 1,682,008 (48.2%), and Trump 1,626,623 (46.7) with Democrat-leaning William and Richmond City still to be completed.

      So I think Clinton pulls it out. But that it was close… I’m gobsmacked, too.

      1. Pat

        I didn’t think it would be a landslide, but considered it solidly Clinton for all the reasons listed above.
        I wonder if the arrogance and lack of consequences for security breaches pissed a whole lot of contractors and government workers off.

    3. oh

      I heard that HRC has a symbolic glass ceiling set up for her in her HQ in NYC. If she loses, she’ll have to smash it with a hammer!

  80. fresno dan

    So, checked CBS, NBC, and ABC…nothing but commercials….I don’t know being told about taking drugs to get an erection when I feel I have gotten the shaft already for years….

  81. Ted

    “Trump Showing Unexpected Strength in Battleground States” sez NYT. Well, perhaps the Paper of Record should hire fewer smirky-snarky iveys and more actual get out of Manhattan reporters, possible some that (gasp!) hail from the 99.9%.

    1. aab

      Most of the courtier political reporters at the Times do not come from Ivies. I was curious, so I checked a bunch of them. They’re often from very small schools — not even Seven Sisters or Little Ivies. That makes sense; they’re strivers. This is their path to security, in a dying industry that pays poorly. You have to have fabulous connections or a lot of lucky plus amazing talent to go from a print reporter job to a decent job and financial security.

      (It took me an hour to write this with various disruptions.)

  82. KurtisMayfield

    The media all appears to be terrified to call for Florida. It looks like a win for DJT but no one is saying anything about the numbers. Are they waiting for a magic county to come in like in VA?

    NH is surprising.. Ayotte was such a weak candidate and her waffling on Trump will be pointed to as her downfall but really she was not a very proactive senator… even comparing to her red brethren.

  83. fresno dan

    OK, every news channel I have seen someone who has commented that the polls showing Hillary ahead by 3 or so points is WRONG, WRONG, WRONG…..
    something is happening….
    But SHOULD we be surprised? Everybody I know and talk to doesn’t think its springtime in America…..

  84. John

    I called this a year and a half ago.

    Nat Silver you don’t have the math.
    Or rather, you don’t know what’s going
    on in America.

    3. Lambert Strether Post author

      Actually, Nate Silver got worried, and that’s why he started tinkering his model and lowering the odds for a Clinton victory, whereupon the Clinton enforcers tried to stomp him.

  85. crittermom

    I began tuning in over an hour ago to the election coverage. Waited until today to vote in hope each candidate would self-implode before the election and it wouldn’t take place.
    Happy to see that it’s not the landslide for Hellary that I’d feared, but can find no cause for celebration that either one will be pres.
    Depressing, but admit to finding a little glee over the fact Hellary must be shittin’ bricks into her pantsuit regarding how close this race is. No doubt she never saw that coming. Ha!

    I’m gonna pop in a DVD and tune out from this worst election ever for the evening.
    Maybe they’ll have each imploded–or flown to Mars–by morning? One can dream…

    1. Synoia

      each candidate would self-implode

      Putin induced self heart attacks…but then we’d have the VP charmers to understand.

  87. Fiver

    Stock markets crashing, Naomi Prins and others on Democracy Now have all very quickly gone from talking about how disappointed they were with a solid-but-losing total to an undertone of alarm that he is right now ahead.

    The market crashes on news of a temporary Trump lead in a count that is fluid before the polls close in the West? Where’s Putin now?

  88. Jess

    If Trump wins, the pressure to pass the TPP in the lame duck session will be enormous. This will be the big battle that we have to win.

    3. hunkerdown

      Perhaps a gentle reminder that voting in favor = persona non grata in their former district would focus some minds.

  90. ginnie nyc

    The Times has now reversed their forecasting odds. For the past two months, at least, the little bar graph on their front page was Clinton 80 something something, Trump in the low teens at best. Odds are now 87 Trump, Clinton 13.

    The world turned upside down.

    1. Susan C

      Every time I saw that little chart on the front page of the Times online about Clinton has a 90% chance of winning, I would get so angry. They have been doing that for months already. I am shocked tonight that the NYT has the vote counts like they do – they beat everyone else for the map and vote counts.

      It looks right now that Trump is going to win and I am saddened – I cannot imagine what the country will be like with Trump in power. But I know with HRC it would have been a nightmare. There is one good thing I can say about Trump – after years of the NYC government playing around with the idea of a skating rink in Central Park, Trump took the project over and had it built in a couple months. Very small thing I know but it showed how he plowed through the powers that be in NY, got it done, and people were very happy to have that rink. You never know, right? I am trying to be positive about this –

  91. Chris

    What’s happening, not going for Ds like they thought?

    The media’s usually called it by now, yes?

    Going to be a long night, better keep an eye on those votes, counted or otherwise. Whoever wins, the other party is going to say its rigged/hacked and ask for a recount.

    Only 2pm here in Oz. Sheesh, did I say a long night…

  92. alex morfesis

    will trump disavow the results even if he actually wins…
    “oh kr*p…another fine mess”…

    actually either way, he has increased his brand value by about 15 billion tonite by making it much much closer than even his best budz could ever have imagined…

    he did not lose the state republican control…nor the house…so he will puff out those manboobz and lean forward no matter what the end result…

    $hillary might have to slide in next to JA @ the ecuadorian embassy…

  93. Matt Alfalfafield

    Trump wins North Carolina according to Faux. He’s getting closer and closer….but he may still come up just short.

      2. Matt Alfalfafield

        Michigan and Pennsylvania are still very up in the air. If Trump takes Wisconsin and New Hampshire that would help him but not be quite enough. He needs another surprise win to push him over the top.

  96. Waldenpond

    People complaining they are holding results and aren’t calling states…. they are holding Clinton votes for ratings.

    I never, never get a presidential election. I don’t want Trump to win but I want the Ds to lose for so many reasons…. rigged primary, media collusion, pre-selecting a bribe laundering war monger corrupt candidate, a D party that elevated Trump…. Trump did damage to the R party and I believe it appropriate to use Trump to damage the D party….

    So I am still justifying the current situation as they are holding votes for Clinton for ratings.

    1. Otis B Driftwood

      You’re not alone in your conflicted feelings about this. What a truly awful and amazing night.

      And don’t forget the MSM’s role in this. Let’s remember that Trump has the unique distinction of not receiving an endorsement from a single major U.S. daily newspaper. What do these results, if they hold (hell, even if they don’t), tell us about the status of the press in the United States? It can only be regarded as a complete repudiation of the establishment. First and foremost being the NYT and WaPo. Couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch of clueless elites.

      1. Waldenpond

        If they don’t hold, it won’t matter. A political party and the media colluded to elevate a candidate they thought they could beat and pounded him for months. They succeeded. After the passing of TPP, I don’t see how elections will matter. No town or city will have the financial resources to prevent a corporation from doing what they want. They will never be able to afford to pay them for lost imaginary profits to go away.

        If they lose, it’s gridlock all the way, there is a slight chance TPP won’t pass and there is a chance to elect a decent human being in 2020. If the Ds lose, there will be an actual investigation into the Clinton’s and I ufortunately could easily predict a prosecution with intent to fail to enshrine accepting foreign funds and privatizing the SoS.

      1. neo-realist

        I’m not all that convinced that Teachout is a weak candidate, but what kind of district demographically is the 19th in New York State? Blue Collar? Silent Majority middle class?

      2. aab

        No. Feingold wasn’t weak. He got washed away by the tidal flow of Clinton crap and Clinton hatred. And I’m sure the DSCC tried to undermine him. The DCCC worked against Teachout.

        The Democratic establishment is terrible, and deserved to lose. But now we their victims have to lift ourselves up, push them out of the way, and get on with the task of creating an actual left party.

    2. Waldenpond

      So sorry. Someone noted some were distrustful after the ACA. What do you think were the deciding factors?

      1. Knifecatcher

        Huge amounts of industry money. And the wording on the ballot started with “Shall state taxes be increased $25 billion annually”…

        2. meeps

          Knifecatcher nailed it re ColoradoCare, which I am trying to take in stride lest I become the beast of Cragganmore…

          Anyhoo, the minimum wage increase looks like it’ll pass. But it only increases to $12.00 by 2020, which isn’t a living wage now, nor is it likely to be then–especially since Colorado just voted to let Insurance/Pharma take every penny and then some.

    4. ProNewerDeal

      CO is a blue state, & with a higher pct of BA+ degree holders than the US median state. Are Muricans/Colorodans dumber than I had thought?

      The PCCC poll of issues had 58% support for MedicareForAll. “Blue” CO has MedicareForAll lose badly. Is this a case of negative ads (anti-COCare outspent pro side 6:1 iirc) swaying dumb Colorodans’ opinion?

      1. Knifecatcher

        The ads said absolutely nothing about health care – it was just “this is a huge tax increase that will double the size of the state budget”. Very clever, and the pro-69 crew just didn’t have enough exposure.

        Most people I know weren’t even aware that a “Medicare for all” bill was on the ballot beforehand.

      2. meeps

        ProNewerDeal @ 11:02pm

        I can’t offer anything resembling a rationale for this result. However, the opposition money massively distorted the situation. The personal tax was to be a 3.3%, with employers paying a 6.7% payroll tax. But all people heard was “you’re going to pay a 10% tax.”

        Were people loathe to do the maths? In my own situation, even if I pay 10% there’s no way I wouldn’t be saving money and getting better coverage when compared to an employer or an ACA plan. WTF?

        Not to mention that the IRS already expects minimum medical expenditures to be 10%, which is why itemizing only allows one to claim a percentage of expenses above and beyond that amount.

        Stoned doesn’t quite explain it…

      1. Lambert Strether Post author

        I looked at the latest Bev video. One of the worst things I’ve ever seen. Document your assertion, or save the foil for elsewhere. (I grant that “fraction magic” is a semantic earworm, and I think Bev’s heart is in the right place, but ye gods.)

      1. Knifecatcher

        Every establishment candidate was against it, from Gov. Hick on down.

        “never, ever, ever…”

        I voted Green everywhere I could for spite.

  100. gee

    I believe the Dilbert cartoonist nailed most of this so far. HRC can still win, but it’s getting bleak.

    1. Foy

      Yep. I wonder what his advance will be for his new book Masters of Persuasion, or maybe Persuasion Wizards….It will sell truckloads.

    2. Waldenpond

      Is Florida large enough that 1% is greater than the vote difference? Sorry to ask such a basic question, but this is my only contact with the outside world and I have no idea what the vote is nor the margin. :)

  102. Jess

    Just saw that several networks have called Florida for Trump. He’s now up to 197 electoral votes. And he’s leading in the Rocky Mountain states and AZ plus still has a chance for NH, WI, MI.

    Could it be possible that Trump might win by a significant margin and not a close race?

  104. gee

    Florida is called DT. It’s a very bad path now. HRC must win PA. Otherwise done. If she wins that, still done if she loses MI or WI. Bleak.

  105. pricklyone

    Whatta think FBI et.al will do if she loses? Nothing?
    Any chance of locking out Clinton Family for good?

  107. gee

    PA is tightening, and the remaining vote is tilted rural. I think HRC is toast even before MI or WI. Plus, she is likely to lose WI. Wow.

    1. John

      Hate to break it to you but Clinton lost
      Lost
      It’s over
      There is no way she can win now without Florida

    2. Lambert Strether Post author

      Clinton is ahead in PA, 49.4% to 47.1%. But you’re right, the remaining counties are rural. She could pull it out, but Holy Moley!

      screen-shot-2016-11-08-at-11-19-50-pm

      The Philly Burbs:

      Chester 52/43
      MontCo 58/37
      Bucks 48/47 <-- !! Deloco 58/37 She needed to do a lot better than that. If she loses PA, and loses the election, those are going to be counties to look at. I always said that Trump "appealing for the black vote" was really Trump giving permission for suburbanites to vote for him because he's no racist, and it looks like that paid off.

      1. ginnie nyc

        The ‘blank’ county on the western side is Lawrence. This was the territory I commented on a few weeks ago – lawn signs x3 for DJT.

  108. Pat

    Will read this thread in the morning.

    I am sick to my stomach. Not that it isn’t a given either way. We are screwed.

    Have to admit that unless Dems develop a spine there will not be gridlock and that is not good with Trump. Clinton squeaks by and is pissed and many Republicans relieved to have her – not good either. Crikey. Our long national nightmare just continues apace regardless despite the brief joy of the media scramble.

  110. Jess

    Wolf Barfer on CNN is just glowing now that they can project Hellary to take CA’s 55 votes and Hawaii’s 4. Yay. Clinton now leads in (projected) electoral votes.

    Now, about those pesky votes in Wi, MI, NV, AZ, etc.

  111. alex morfesis

    as $hillary shrieks…”this can’t be happening”..as the plates start flying..”what is wrong with you people”…”somebody fix this !!!”

    well…if you’ve lost the times…and the markets seem to be fairly sure…not that they like it…

  112. HBE

    Amazing! The MSM just traded in the last of their nearly nonexistent credibility in an attempt to force a Clinton win and it’s looking like she might not win, serious exploding heads tonight.

    I think the comment awhile back about not meeting anyone in Italy who admitted voting for voting for Berlusconi was definitely prescient.

    Interesting night for sure.

    My true joy is the exploding heads at huffpo who had Clinton with a 98% chance of winning in a massive box on the homepage.

    1. Daryl

      > Amazing! The MSM just traded in the last of their nearly nonexistent credibility in an attempt to force a Clinton win and it’s looking like she might not win, serious exploding heads tonight.

      I wonder how many people stayed at home, assured by the media of a Clinton win.

      Meanwhile Trump voters show up just to flip the bird to the political system.

      1. hunkerdown

        Turnout seems to be up by a third overall. In light of which the complacent Hillary voter theory sounds more like the Party’s public position, so to speak.

      2. Baby Gerald

        Watching all the pundits spin and twist with each result report is like ultimate Schadenfreude. David Brooks babbling about angry racist whites, ‘de-industrialization’ and reaction to globalism is something to truly savor.

  113. ginnie nyc

    Times now predicts Senate to also go GOP – by 95%. Politico currently says GOP currently ahead by 46 to 40, with 12 undecided. A little early for 95%.

  114. Foy

    Scott Adams just tweeted that his fee to be a political consultant for the next election will be $1 billion! I wonder when his next book will be released… No matter what you think of him he was one of the first to predict what’s happening now. He did say landslide originally though but it’s looking like a massive upset never the less

    1. Roger Smith

      He deserves accolades for the most interesting and unique analysis of the cycle. As do our NC overlords!

  115. HBE

    Minnesota is definitely still in play the ultra conservative iron range counties haven’t been reported, and while population is not massive turnout is always extremely high there.

        2. Yves Smith

          Trump has repeatedly slapped down Pence on Twitter. Doesn’t like Pence trying to undercut him at all. Recall that there was a lot of quiet antipathy between Reagan and Bush the Senior. Trump is not going to give Pence rope. He was there to reassure evangelicals. Trump’s cabinet picks are much closer to him and will have influence.

          1. John

            When Trump gets bored everyday of the job at about 10am
            it will be Pence implementing the Koch brothers’ policies.

            1. pretzelattack

              i dont think trump likes people undercutting him. i think his cabinet picks are far more likely to implement policies, and they won’t necessarily be those the koch brothers would like, which is why they didn’t support trump in the first place.

    2. hunkerdown

      As they would have with the other legacy party candidate, who, ironically, was undone by taking Fred Koch’s ghost a little too seriously with that Red Scare nonsense.

  117. sleepy

    BRANDON LEE 3TV Verified account
    ‏@BrandonLeeTV

    #BREAKING Sheriff Joe Arpaio LOSES. Paul Penzone is the new sheriff in town #azfamily

    1. Daryl

      Well, there’s a bright spot. Hopefully he’ll be packed straight off to a prison…run by Joe Arpaio.

    1. JSM

      Don’t know where the votes are in and where they aren’t but

      holy wow (font size reduced) ahead with 33% counted. Now X’ed for Clinton column, but Trump still ahead.

    3. Steeeve

      Saw big Trump signs all along I-90 driving from Eastern Washington to Seattle last weekend, and no Hillary signs around Seattle. Quite a bit of Bernie stuff still around. Made me wonder if Trump could flip Washington to red.

  121. Donald

    I don’t understand the glee in the comments. Yes, it’s nice to see the Democratic elite and the media humiliated, but Trump is likely to be the most powerful man in the world and nobody knows what he will do. He has a record of misogyny and racism and appeals to bigotry that should worry us all.

    And there is no reason to think that some progressive movement will rise from the ashes. The Democratic elite will blame everyone but themselves and plenty of ordinary Clinton voters will probably blame Berniebusters. It’s not going to be pretty.

    There was little chance we would do enough on the global warming front. Now there is even less chance.

    1. TK421

      So it’d be better to have Hillary, who kills people just for the heck of it? Who has supported policies that locked up thousands of black people? But at least she isn’t a racist!

      1. Waldenpond

        Dead bodies, mass incarceration, etc were a factor in the family discussions. Yes, Trump is horridly rude. Clinton’s policies are demostrably horridly violent.

        I could always count on Rs to make my life worse and didn’t vote for them. Ds have factually made life worse for me and mine and I voted against them. I won’t even go into how the e-mails demonstrated all of this.

        Can I also note that the only ad (I admit I rarely watch tv) was Clinton calling Trump a misogynist. That’s it…. Trump sucks. That was all she had to offer. To me that was her (admitting she would never support a policy that would make the lives of my family, friends and neighbors better) giving me the middle finger.

        I’m in CA and my state will go for Clinton so my vote is meaningless. But… if the Ds lose, it is because they have been horrible at governing and maybe, just maybe, it dawned on people that we are currently living Clinton’s economy now.

        2. Binky Bear

          Or because voting rubes credulously believe every bit of propaganda they can be forcefed by a party of pedophiles. Mencken said America gets what it deserves, good and hard. We as a nation are hearing banjos all around right now.

          1. jrs

            People want to believe Trump won because everyone was disgusted Hillary was not left enough or something. Of course it’s not true. Remember that some (not all) Trump voters ARE the proverbial working class that will kill the other half of the working class should it strike for better working conditions and a better world.

            What is a clarifying question: oh maybe if we could poll what Trump voters think of say Occupy. We might just find out their revolution is not necessarily your (left) revolution.

            Or that people were upset that Hillary is corrupt, well at this point everyone and their brother knows something about Clinton’s corruption, especially with Wikileaks, but the right’s conspiracies are not necessarily your conspiracies. Remember they have been batty about Clinton conspiracies for years not to mention birther nonsense.

          2. jrs

            I’m agreeing with you btw, it might just be a nation of rubes (although the propaganda was thick on all sides). I disagree with the usual soft peddling of Trump, that it’s all about working class revolt, I’ll believe it when I really see it (oh I don’t know, fight for 15, pushing against anti-labor laws etc. that’s really seeing it. Or if that’s not the kind of working class revolt this country is capable of then it needs to show what exactly it is capable of besides just electing republicans who don’t exactly provide reason for all that much hope).

    2. subgenius

      Well, as has repeatedly been pointed out, this way we are more likely to avoid annihilation due to messing with Russia..

    3. Lambert Strether Post author

      > no reason to think that some progressive movement will rise from the ashes

      You’d better hope there is and work for it, because it’s our only chance. In that respect, this election changes nothing. (And no matter who won, liberals and conservatives would unite to kick the left. They always do. So it matters a lot less what they do, than what we do.)

      1. EGrise

        Yeah, we’re already seeing the knives come out for Bernie supporters.

        I voted a straight Green ticket, and in response a relative on FB offered to knock my teeth down my throat. 2017 is gonna be interesting.

        1. Octopii

          Early on as the map started to really turn red, Chuck Todd did some obvious soul searching live on the air, which was encouraging to hear. Later in the broadcast, that had all gone away and he was bashing the Bernie Bros for losing the swing states. Don’t know if he came to his senses on his own or if the commands came down through his earpiece. It clearly won’t be quite so easy as simply a Trump win to inspire self-reflection amongst the media staffers.

        2. Steve H.

          I’m seeing this too, as well as vitriol on 3rd party, despite simple addition disproving the point.

          It’s all lizard brain (I think alcohol is involved, many mispellings), and we’re still hearing slime about Nader. Only one FBer noted the lack of knowing Trump supporters, the rest are busy trying to shank the neighbors to their left.

          The positive is if folks can remember how close Bernie was.

    4. lyman alpha blob

      “He has a record of misogyny and racism and appeals to bigotry that should worry us all.”

      Sounds a lot like Bill Clinton.

      And have we all forgotten that we had an ignorant buffoon in office already just 8 years ago?

      Just don’t see why so many people are afraid of how bad things would be under Trump when they’ve completely sucked under so many other recent presidents.

    5. redleg

      They already are blaming Berners like myself. Lots of hate on social media from the Hillbots, and the race isn’t yet decided.

      1. jrs

        Actually it should be: “Don’t blame me I voted for Bernie”. Even if Bernie lost to Hillary at least it would be a clear cut choice what we are voting for, not corrupt pay-to-play versus narcissistic blowhard but a vote for social democracy, even if social democracy lost.

        But don’t blame me I voted for Bernie in the primaries, even after AP called the election, this mess is not my fault.

        1. OIFVet

          Even Faux News had an insight (like a broken clock, etc): Trump is doing great in Midwestern states where Bernie won. Too bad the Democrat party and their know-nothing liberal die hards will draw the wrong conclusions.

    6. bob k

      oh please, trump is NOT a fascist. he’s a racist demagogue but we’ve had plenty of those before and will have more. he won’t be mobilizing the masses to tear down democracy. please do some homework before you start throwing big words about.

    7. Amateur Socialist

      Hint: You don’t beat fascists with voting (alone). And now we know how bad things really are. It’s a start.

  122. JM

    For anyone who isn’t blessed with access to MSBNC…the coverage is just dripping with condescension. And they seem to not be able to cross the rubicon to admitting Clinton was a weak candidate.

    It’s actually comical because the nervous humor is all about how the world is coming to an end and then the anchors realize they are quite possibly making fun of the “market” they should be courting.

    Rove was made quite the specimen out of his 2012 meltdown and MSNBC is definitely heading down towards that fate if Clinton loses the night.

    1. Plenue

      TRNN had some MSNBC video. Maddow was laughing nervously and Matthews was spouting his usual vacuous idiocy.

    2. OIFVet

      I am saving MSDNC for after Trump wins, if he does. I want to enjoy it properly. If he loses, I won’t break my streak of not watching them for five solid years.

    3. Matt Alfalfafield

      I’m really pleased with my choice of Faux News for tonight. They’ve been surprisingly measured and thoughtful, cautious in their calls (they waited on Florida a LONG time after the other networks called it), and even occasionally insightful. What a strange year…

      1. Matt Alfalfafield

        Like they were just praising and quoting Michael Moore and calling him insightful re: the plight of working class voters?!?

        1. fresno dan

          Matt Alfalfafield
          November 8, 2016 at 11:32 pm

          I saw that! If I have said it once, I have said it a thousand times – Murdoch is all about the ratings and money. There are Kraughthammer/Will repubs and there is Trump, who is in no way a repub. Strange, strange times ahead if he really is elected….

    4. ChiGal in Carolina

      Agreed, they are sooo insular. Talking about it being “chic” to go 3rd party for millennials and the 3rd party votes in the swing states are enough to make the difference. That millennials didn’t even know much about the 3rd party candidates, it was just “chic”.

      Hey guys, remember Bernie? And how much support he had among millennials? And how the Dems decided they didn’t need those loser voters living in their parent’s basements?

      Time to turn this sh*t off.

  123. fresno dan

    If Trump were to win, I would not be able but to think about that first republican debate where Trump was the only one with the b*lls to say he would not necessarily pledge to support the nominee….

    AFTER ALL THE YAMMERING ABOUT HOW THE LOSER SHOULD CONCEDE GRACIOUSLY…I AM LOOKING FORWARD TO HILLARY’S GRACIOUSNESS…..

  124. Jessica

    86.6% of the Milwaukee vote is in and 60% of the Dane County (Madison) vote and Clinton is still down by 3%. That looks like she will lose Wisconsin.
    For Michigan, the Washtenaw County (Ann Arbor) vote is only 7% counted, so she has a better chance there.
    I can only hope that the Republicans in Congress and Trump go for each others throats.

    1. gee

      Plus, the senate race there was WAY off and a Repub win. I think she loses there and that is that. The rest irrelevant. I think the talking heads are realizing that now, though they won’t say it. But PBS is already talking like it is over.

      1. craazyboy

        It’s possible this will be the first time ever NPR sounds shrill, rather than soothing and suitable for yoga class meditation. It may even be safe to drive a car while listening to NPR on your car radio.

    1. Waldenpond

      I can’t. That part is painful. I saw some reporting that some decent people got wiped out. It wasn’t just a vote against Clinton in some areas, they punished the party.

  127. blowncue

    Had a convo with a friend who was a volunteer at Precinct 51, SW Durham, NC. 75% of precinct turned out to vote between early voting and through today.

    A five point spread and that’s after Johnson. Clintonistas down here are in shock.

    I made this vanity prediction before and I will make it again. I am not ruling out eventual calls for secession, invocation of Section 4 of 25th Amendment by Pence with congressional support should Trump win, assuming we have no electoral collegiate compromise for another choice for president. Wring your hands about whether the policy elites will read Naked Capitalism. It’s not like they predicted this outcome and yet we’re here.

    Still really struck by Radio One, Foxy 107/104 running pro and anti Clinton radio spots down here. Maybe I shouldn’t be. Also wondering whether fears of Clinton launching nuclear war had wider traction than just in this commentariat.

    1. NotTimothyGeithner

      It’s still “the economy, stupid.”

      Telling people to not believe their lying eyes and gaze upon Hillary’s glory is the real source of the problem. The rest is noise.

      2000. Shrub said, “country not gud. Me fix with honor.” What did Gore or his campaign apparatus say? The answer is “shut up, we are smart, SMRT.” In the end, 70% of households saw wage declines during the 90’s, not a booming economy.

      Obama promised to be better in a second term and enjoyed the GOP really going crazy with trying to block voting which angered people.

      Trump said “things are wrong, and I can fix them.” Between the Hillary message and Trump message, the only part that reflects reality is “things are wrong.”

      Also, many poorer voters Democrats need judge Democrats on whether Team Blue asks for their vote or not. Hillary wanted the mythical “moderate suburban Republican” more than she wanted Democrats to vote for her. My guess is Democrats had precinct after precinct they won handidly with 95% of the vote but only 65% turnout not 80%. Over the course of a state, it swings elections.

      1. OIFVet

        But how can the economy be bad when my portfolio is doing well and I just got promoted in my white collar job?

        1. Barmitt O'bamney

          And the government keeps telling us that things are getting better and better. We are in recovery. There’s like practically no unemployment anymore. All will be well. Don’t these stupid voters watch the news?!? What the Hell?

          1. OIFVet

            Also too, Obamacare. None of the liberals I know have to go to the exchange, they get great coverage from their colleges, law firms, or Beltway jobs. But they are absolutely convinced that 0bamacare is a smashing success. The ignorance about the struggle of the common people is simply astounding.

      2. Amateur Socialist

        Every Clinton ad I saw during the WS was only one message: “I’m not Trump”. It’s an old story. You don’t beat something with nothing. And “I’m not X” is less than something.

      3. blowncue

        I wrote this as part of a broadside in the comments section of “Whatever happens tonight..” post from team HRC (translation: we lost):

        “It’s the economy, stupid.” Fascism seduces. It intoxicates. The only way to beat it on the front end is to pour a competing cocktail that satisfies. I overheard a repugnant man from Tennessee say at a McDonalds 1) transgendered people should use the woods to go to the bathroom 2) the South would rise again 3) Petraeus would lead them. I had to leave, I was so angry. Know who he voted for in the primary? Sanders. Crackers, despite being crackers, vote. As do white, working class voters. You can create superdelegates, but sadly, not supervoters.

        True story.

  128. Jagger

    So does this mean, sometime next year, we will we see Hillary on the run from the law, somewhere in Russia alongside Snowden? Hmmmm…..

  129. fresno dan

    FOX says Wisconsin goes for Trump.
    Its bigger than the polls. All our sociology will have to be re examined as well…

    1. Lambert Strether Post author

      Holy Moley, Trump 1,064,924 (49.0%), Clinton 997,014 (45.9). 74% reporting. Trump’s only up by 67,910.

      wi_11-36

      Maybe Milwaukee and Dane County can still pull it out for Clinton, but yikes:

      Milwaukee Trump 105,698 Clinton 214,501 87% reporting
      Dane Trump 62,139 Clinton 176,389 71% reporting

      1. JSM

        Just thinking, WI polling consensus with HC up 6 points as of earlier today. Essentially putting that in the bank for the Dems never felt right and pretty much captures the whole shebang in a nutshell. Other states may say something similar to others, but this one says ‘delusional’ to me.

      2. grayslady

        Wisconsin gave Bernie a big win in the primaries. This doesn’t surprise me. The same people who didn’t like Hillary in the primary still don’t like her now. Bernie could have captured all the indies and a fair number of Repubs as well. Wisconsin Dems have a shallow bench.

  131. Lambert Strether Post author

    Comic relief from The Moustache of Understanding:

    We’re Near the Breaking Point

    You say that like it’s a bad thing:

    I think it’s appropriate that the last words on this campaign and the first words for our new president go to an immigrant. They’re from my friend Lesley Goldwasser, who came from Zimbabwe in the 1980s. Surveying our political scene a few years ago, Lesley remarked to me: “You Americans kick around your country like it’s a football. But it’s not a football. It’s a Fabergé egg. You can break it.”

    I’ve thought of Lesley’s remark often in recent weeks, because for the last decades we’ve seen people deliberately trashing our institutions and eroding the foundations of trust that are the bedrock of American democracy. They did so with the seeming assumption that the American system is indeed a football we can kick around endlessly to advance one’s political career or, worse, make money, and it will always bounce back.

    Well, none of us knows exactly where the breaking point lies, but I’d posit that the last eight years of our politics, culminating in this campaign, have stressed America to the limit. It’s indeed a Fabergé egg, not a football. We can break it. We can debase our most cherished institutions that were the envy of the world. We can irredeemably shred the bonds of trust that are the sine qua non of any democracy.

    In short, if we don’t pull back from the madness that has become American politics — if we have another eight years like the last eight — we’re going to break this place.

    I think it would be best to stop there, and play this classic video from a younger, thinner Freidman:

    It’s neoliberal assclowns like Friedman that broke the country, even if it did take them 40 year to do it.

    2. Octopii

      Disgusting little troll in person, too. I don’t know how anyone can stand being in the same room. Suppose that’s why he’s always “reporting in” from far off lands.

  132. Matt Alfalfafield

    Faux calling Iowa AND Wisconsin for Trump, saying if he holds Romney states he’s at 269…

    1. Lambert Strether Post author

      Trump was always going to win Iowa, but Wisconsin? Extraordinary. I thought Walker would pull it out for Trump with open cheating, but then backed off that; Clinton’s lead looked safe! Extraordinary!

      (And a very good night, so far, for the Los Angeles Times tracking poll!)

      2. neo-realist

        They also put Johnson back in over Feingold again. Maybe WI is really a red state after all with a couple of outlier cities–Milwaukee and Madison.

    1. OIFVet

      Rural counties (i.e. Trump Country) have shot their wad, and urban centers are just getting started. Simple as that.

    2. knowbuddhau

      East of the Cascades is conservative, sparsely populated. King County (West side’s most populous) and Whatcom County are both at 0% per the Times. Likely that all 9 Puget Sound counties will go with Her. The rest (save Mason) already have.

  134. fresno dan

    Well, I have to say I have sure enjoyed the insights of the NC commentators! I hope your candidate won! Or the person you hated lost!!!!

    Of course, that may be the bottle of Cabernet and the bottle of Merlot talkaling…..and I forget what the third botlttle was….you know, it doesn’t matter that much really….

        2. OpenThePodBayDoorsHAL

          I personally am having a celebratory cocktail, it’s a very sad day for America but a triumph for American democracy…the institutions are far more important than any one candidate and any one election cycle. Unfortunately Americans were given the choice between a ridiculous blowhard lewd bigoted TV showman and a criminal, to their great credit they decided that putting the criminal in would be worse in the long run

    2. redleg

      Thanks for the good wishes, but this is a no win situation if there ever was one.
      Drinking alone tonight, because there’s no reason for a party.

      1. fresno dan

        redleg
        November 9, 2016 at 12:11 am

        I hear you – I have never been sadder after a presidential election….

  135. Daryl

    This comedy podcast I’m watching has it like 1 vote away? Wonder which source they’re using for electoral votes.

  137. Waldenpond

    If Trump wins, which Ds in the House and Senate will work to punish voters? Using the excuse, well you voted for it, so here it comes…… You know, pragmatically moving to the right because that’s what you asked for.

    1. River

      Voters will be punished regardless who wins. The question that needs to be asked is how severely will voters be punished? Or more accurately, what part of them won’t receive punishment?

    2. Larry

      I honestly never thought of this possibility, and feel really ashamed for not having done so.

      My baseline assumption is that Trump will truly be feckless due to lack of support from the mainstream. We might actually learn what congressional power means in a Trump presidency as opposed to watching them roll over for war, deregulation, and stagnation.

      1. bob k

        trump may be feckless or he may be trotted out for pressers, SOTU, etc., etc. but pence will be president in everything but name. in the cheney style. as such you can expect the usual agenda a repub would deliver – tax cuts, repeal of ACA (no good anyway so good riddance), and all the rest. just imagine pence ran for prez. that’s what you’ll get. it will be awful. but HRC would have been equally awful.

      3. jrs

        Or because it’s an equally red as it’s ever been blue country and the parties tend to trade off anyway with the Presidency? Well they do.

        1. John

          The Left
          The people who can’t stomach Republicans
          We’ve been screaming for years now.
          No, we know you are pulling us to the Right
          and we hate it.
          Because we know what we want.
          And neo liberalism isn’t it.
          Populism is.

        2. meeps

          I’d also ask, “What Democrats?”

          There’s been plenty of talk about the unraveling of the Republican Party this year. But when I think back to the first primary “debate” lineup, who was on that stage? Chaffee, Webb, Clinton–all Republicans (for all intents and purposes). One could consider O’Malley a Dem, to whatever degree one would consider him at all. And Sanders; the Independent who only ran as a Dem because he knew he’d be utterly invisible otherwise. I also remember rumors that Tulsi Gabbard aimed for positioning on that stage, but she was barred because it messed with the whole “the first woman” narrative that the Dems intended to spin.

          The Democrat party was MIA going into the primaries, but no one wanted to acknowledge what their lying eyes witnessed. Many still haven’t come around.

          Denial ain’t just a river…

  138. Fiver

    The reason it’s so close is that Trump insisted on it as a condition for ‘certifying’ the Election – he’ll be able to tell the story a hundred different ways about how ‘Crooked Hillary won by a nose’ and be a visitor to the White House within six months. The greatest show on earth.

  140. Pat

    Dropping back in to say one other reason the media will be crying for weeks or maybe years about this election is what it says about advertising. Especially if Trump wins. Clinton has spent how many times what Trump did on ads?

    2. uncle tungsten

      Clinton spent huuuuuge on advertising because that’s the way they rigged it in Arkansas. They simply bought the media every election. That way the Clinton Governorship could do no wrong. They fundraised for the media acquiescence then and now.

      It doesn’t work like that once you are a detestable.

  142. gee

    I guess we can pretty much do a major reorg on the pollsters. They should all be filing for first time UE claims tomorrow.

  143. Michael Fiorillo

    Never been a fan of the Clinton’s, and she’s a weak and intensely flawed candidate, but see how happy you are with Republican control of all three branches of government.

    I’m long entropy…

    1. Waldenpond

      Russia, Russia, Russia, Trump’s a racist, outsourcing, TPP and Fracking all the way to the bank didn’t work. It was predictable that message would lose and that is only on the Ds.

      Clinton is a bribe laundering war monger, generally corrupt. The Ds knew all of this when they rigged the primary for her and when they elevated Trump.

      Trump’s election is completely due to the incompetence and arrogance of the D elite.

      1. OpenThePodBayDoorsHAL

        Yes Hilary’s 25 years of public life were just soooo good for workers, gimme a break. Obama/Clinton ran to the far right and oops The Donald looks good for workers by comparison

  144. dbk

    NBC (I know, sorry) just called GA for T. They just showed him at 244 EC votes – 26 away from the Presidency of the United States. Haven’t confirmed yet by checking other outlets …

      1. GMoore

        Trump won Georgia hours ago. The action has all been on twitter. Boots on the ground pollsters get the information coming in from every county. PA is looking Trump.

        and NH is Trump ditto for WI and MI

        the pollsters know how many clinton voters are left in the remaining precincts.

        I will never watch another election on cable… to corrupt… too slow

    2. Matt Alfalfafield

      Faux has 254-209 at the moment. And Sean Hannity is blathering on about all the poor folks out of work and on food stamps and how much they’re suffering, as though he hadn’t spent his whole career shilling for poor-bashing politicians.

    1. Daryl

      I’m getting the same crap in Texas…although Hillary lost by like a solid 8% or something here so not sure why it matters.

    3. ambrit

      She can tell the PC Brigade that she just saved them from nuclear winter. In Michigan, I’d assume that would be really bad.

      1. Patricia

        Heh.

        She told them to get back to her if Trump wins by one point over Clinton. I told her that would be my vote so they can take it up with me.

        Irrationality on both sides. The baseless guilt-tripping reminds me of my religious upbringing. Blech

        1. ambrit

          Yep. That “irrationality” you mentioned has completely turned me off this election cycle. When people like Alec Jones look like the only adults in the room, you know things are bad. And yes, a lot of the ‘discourse’ sounds exactly like religious argumentation. I’m with Her. Those not With Her will be burned at the stake. The Republican Right, how did we reach this point, perfected this style, I’m guessing, when they included the Protestant Fundamentalists in their inner circles. To that lot, inerrantism is doctrine. The Dems were supposed to be rationalists. Hah! Were we ever wrong!

    4. cwaltz

      Remind your daughter to tell them during the primaries they said they didn’t need the Independants. Guess what? This is what an election looks like when you decide you don’t need 44% of the population.

      This is all on the DNC and their rigged primaries.

      1. Patricia

        I am enraged at liberals. Smug dim-wits stuffed with arrogance, assumptions, presumptions, pretensions.

        I am soooo effing sick of them. Everywhere they go, they ruin stuff.

    8. blowncue

      No. Point spread is too wide. Look at North Carolina. Johnson pulled serious votes and still it wasn’t enough of a drag. Stein not a factor. You cannot turn this state blue. You can only poach red voters. They’re staying red. Trump’s third debate was better, the Comey letter dislodged the Access Hollywood video. She lost the African-American youth vote. Superpredator radio spots on R+B radio. Any other contest in any other sport – that Comey letter hits, you pull your pitcher out. You don’t put a pitcher that has huge negatives when you know you have no margin of safety.

  146. OIFVet

    My FB timeline is a sea of despair, prozac popping, and lots of denigration of Sarpy County, NE, and the Rust Belt.

  147. Uahsenaa

    The liberal histrionics and gnashing of teeth (especially on twitter) are actually just making me mad now. So, you sat out the fight from 2008 to the present and suddenly NOW the world is coming to an end. Where were you when Occupy was scuttled by your precious Democratic administration? Where were you when Secretary Clinton was negotiating away the last vestiges of labor rights in this country? Where have you been while state after state has passed right to work laws? Where were you when the current administration ramped up deportations? Where were you when the DoJ pumped weapons into Mexico just to see what would happen? Where were you when a sixteen year old American kid was blown to pink mist in Yemen? And the list goes on…

    I should make this into a card that I hand to every single person tomorrow who blubbers about the coming apocalypse. The world was already on fire. Now the veil has been lifted. I’d hope to see these fresh discontents on the picket lines, but something tells me that’s unlikely.

    1. ChiGal in Carolina

      A card, yes. I might borrow that idea. It will get tiresome having to repeat myself and just keep me pissed off.

      President Trump, courtesy of the Clinton Foundation

    2. curlydan

      and where was their beloved leader for the past 4 years? oh yeah, pimping TPP was his #1 priority. How’s that going over in Michigan right now?

    3. jrs

      I don’t know, activists types might also vote D you know. I have known them. It is lesser evilism. Not all, there are certainly hard leftists who don’t, but some prefer to call themselves progressive and do.

    7. Amateur Socialist

      Yes the endless apocalyptic blathering is beyond tiresome. “If this is all it takes to destroy democracy (as you all would have it) I guess it wasn’t worth so much to begin with was it…”

      And at least now we know the boundary conditions.

  148. fresno dan

    Hmmmm…almost makes one wonder if having Beyonce, Lady GaGa, and how many other rich celebrities…I don’t know…just didn’t p*ss off all the poor people who can’t pay their health co pays, and are working 2 part time jobs…..

    1. GMoore

      No, in my family, it made us more thoughtful on exactly how debased our culture has become. Hollywood is dead to me. Ditto for cable and MSM.

      Thank goodness my kids survived the debauchery and are happily married to people they actually love.

      We are so much better than Beyonce. So much better

    2. juliania

      That, fresno dan, is where it is at.

      “e deplorable unum.” I love it.

      And lest we forget, this is skin off Obama’s nose as well.

  149. Baby Gerald

    Have they ever rolled out Dow futures numbers to scare people away from a candidate before? I don’t recall what the futures projections were for Obama in ’08. Anyone?

      1. GMoore

        Denver Baseball Hats on sale in Cherry Creek that say – I’m Deplorable!

        and they are selling T shirts in Denver and ABQ that say – JUST SHOOT HER

        I’ve seen both these products at King Soopers and of all places – Whole Foods.

  150. Scott

    It’s really amazing to see how little of the blame is going to Clinton herself. It was her decision to set-up a private email server. It was her decision to serve as Secretary of State while accepting millions from foreign governments. It was her decision to get paid hundreds of thousands of dollars while unofficially running for President. It was her decision to call millions of Americans deplorable.

    But if you want to see why there is such a media bubble, look at the vote in D.C., Trump has 11,000 votes or 4%, which is actually under my over/under of 5%.

    2. Susan C

      This is all Hillary’s fault. And the MSM. They were so in love with themselves and each other they forgot their real jobs are to service us.

      It’s like karma – what goes around comes around.

  151. integer

    Bob Carr (ex Aus. foreign affairs minister and possible/probable CIA stooge) is on Australian TV admonishing people not to “normalize” Trump and generally squirming. He just said that one of the interesting things about this election was that Biden has grown as a result of it? He is nervous and fidgeting and I’m enjoying the shadenfreude :-)

    1. integer

      Note that while the linked article does not definitively prove its case, it is not an example of Betteridge’s law.

    2. integer

      …And now the (Aus. TV) discourse has devolved into a discussion about how the election was one based on race and gender. Ugh.

      1. OIFVet

        Well, the elites are global after all. Still, I am sorry to hear that Oz has been polluted by this crap as well.

        1. integer

          I just got to see Julie Bishop on TV and she seemed very flustered indeed, her pea sized brain seemed to be working in overdrive. So it’s almost worth it. To be fair, there was some pushback to the race/gender explanation, too.

    3. Another Anon

      Carr was OK when he was premier of New South Wales in the 90’s,
      but he has gone down hill since then.

  152. fresno dan

    WOW!!!
    WOW!!!!!!!!!
    WOW !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    MSNBC is acting like Trump will be the winner……

    1. fresno dan

      Rachel Maddow – talking about how Trump is in cahoots with Putin!!!!
      Who would have thunk it – Rachel Maddow – McCarthyism….

      1. Daryl

        According to my investigative report, the US Government — of which Trump is the head of state — exchanges diplomats and other individuals with Russia…

      2. OIFVet

        That’s because she is smart and she knows things. I know that she is smart because MSDNC says so, and because she is smarmy yet condescending. It is safe to say that I disliked her immediately after she was brought in, and she has done nothing to change that.

        1. GMoore

          Unctuous is the word for Maddow. Carville as well. Krauthammer. Kristol.

          How do these creatures gain employment in front of a screen?

    2. ChiGal in Carolina

      And on that sorry note, over and out y’all. Thanks again to Yves & Lambert for the hospitality, and to everyone for the solidarity.

      What an ugly dawn it will be, one way or the other…

  153. Archie

    AP currently has Trump ahead in EV 238-209. But just as important, Trump currently holds a 1.2 million lead in popular votes!

  154. 3.14e-9

    Call me a conspiracy theorist, but if Trump wins, I won’t believe it until enough time has passed.

    WE WERE WARNED: Months ago, we were told the Russians by November would have the capability to hack voting machines. A few days ago, we were told that the Russians were planning a major hack today. The setup has been in place.

    For those who think that a Trump win means that at least we won’t go to war with Russia, in this up-is-down election cycle, it might be just the opposite.

      1. 3.14e-9

        Of course not. But how many people have been thinking clearly? There have discussions on NC about the effectiveness of the propaganda machine.

        I hope that I am wrong about this, and that Clinton will pull ahead by a nose at the last minute. But the signs have been there. A few weeks ago, I posted a link to a short Soros article in The New York Review of Books about the need to take action against Putin immediately. Here it is again:

        http://www.nybooks.com/articles/2016/11/10/on-bombing-aleppo/

  156. GMoore

    Trump has already won. I never turned on the TV tonight. All the action was on twitter. Two crusty pollsters with boots on the ground.

    The corruption in Broward county Florida was rampant. They held back their votes waiting to see how much they had to manufacture for Hillary. But the panhandle was on to em.

    The panhandle held back votes until delinquent Broward county had so much pressure that they had to relent.

    The police were called, the Trumpets were at the courthouse. Very exciting.

    Also, NH is Trump. She has no more counties left. And he probably takes PA. It’s looking that way.

    TV is NOT the way to watch this stuff. It will give you ulcers win or lose.

    Twitter was fabulous. I went between 3 pollsters and the AP map all night. Fox and CNN were lying, and holding back.

    The NYT had Trump at a ‘90% chance of a win and hour ago.

  158. Foy

    Stephanopoulos interviewing Nate Silver saying that Nate was more cautious than most pollsters and pundits in predicting a Shillary win. Laughed when I heard that. Wasn’t Trump just a 20% chance a couple of weeks ago according to Nate? History already being rewritten….

    1. dk

      Silver kept dropping hints and then covering his ass, he works for partisans, he knows who pays his keep. But he knows the polls have a blind spot in disenfranchised voters, a hidden margin for any opposition candidate.. in this case Trump.

  159. fresno dan

    All the stations I am watching are talking as if a fait accompli – Trump is president.
    Am I wrong?????

    what happens now?

    1. Archie

      It’s looking more and more that way Dan. AZ, WI and MI are leaning Trump and that puts him over the line.

      1. Susan C

        There is a small problem in AZ. 350,000 votes still have to be counted – think it’s in Maricopa County. Tomorrow and the next day. They weren’t ready for all the mail in ballots.

    3. River

      Enjoy the begging. “Some rice for my bowl President Trump?”. Still too early for me, I’ll wait to see if Michigan or PA is taken first.

      2. ambrit

        “They” imagine their own “reality.” There is a subtle difference. In one set of referents, the laws of physics, etc. rule with an iron fist. In the other set, all is rainbows and unicorns, until the other set comes over and smacks the s–t out of the sparkle pony crowd. As seems to be happening tonight.
        Now, what about that legitimacy crisis? Does it now include all the ‘official’ political parties?

  163. chuck roast

    Maybe brother Bernie will run for Minority Leader and give that schlub Schumer a facial. A large glimmer of hope.

  164. HBE

    My hope is if it’s a trump presidency, it forces liberals to pretend again (bush years) they’re against things like war and corruption since the other tribe is doing it.

    But they’ll probably double down on bashing millennials and Bernie Bro’s, but I guess that means the party will be dead in 2020. Maybe we will actually get a party of the left?

    Maybe just wishful thinking.

    2. OpenThePodBayDoorsHAL

      YES PLEASE THATS THE POINT. Instead of Bush Term 3 and 4 masquerading as a smooth-talking brother who really gives a single solitary damn about the 90%

  165. ginnie nyc

    According to Twitter, people are leaving the Javits Center (Clinton party central) already, crying. Guess it was a good thing she cancelled the fireworks show (cough).

      1. Waldenpond

        This has to be worse for them than 2008. In 2008 they knew they could run again. The Bush family is out. The Clinton’s are out. That is good at the same time Trump is horrid.

  166. cripes

    Bernie Sanders neo-new deal politics, despite his many faults, would have beaten Trump, bad. Real Bad.

    All the polls had him beating Trumpf by 10-15 points. Millions of disaffected, economically exploited working people would have moved votes from Trumpf to Sanders. It would have been a rout.

    Instead of single payer, mortgage and education loan relief, $15 minimum wage, raising the cap on SS taxes and Wall street transaction taxes, we get gutted health care and social security, federal minimum wages stuck in the 1970’s, endless debt and endless war. From either one of the two pretenders to the throne.

    I blame the DNC and Hillary and Donna Brazille and Huma, Wasserman Schultz and MSNBC and O’bummer and the whole lot of craven POS neoliberal snotty pricks who gamed the primaries to install that war criminal loser on the ticket.

    Even and especially if she wins, I blame them all.

    1. Archie

      Totally agree with you cripes. Bernie’s movement is DOA. He should have owned what he said and accepted the banner of the deplorably pissed off masses.

    2. allan

      It’s far too early to say for sure, but basic human nature says that some large percentage of Sanders supporters who were demonized as BernieBros are finished with the Dems.

      But Nancy, Steny and Chuck were re-elected, so all is good.

    4. neo-realist

      Maybe the Bernie dems, progressives and independents work to create a populist party out of the dems from the ashes of the corporatist DNC. I don’t believe they can’t go to the Greens because they don’t strike me as a political organization that is willing to do the hard work of grass roots organizing to build their brand in the 50 states so that they can become a competitive mainstream party. They would rather be David with the the slingshot telling progressives to vote for them in the Presidential race every four years while they disappear into the abyss in the 4 year interim.

        1. ambrit

          Psychic researchers call that, flying objects etc., Politigeist Phenomena. “She’s heeeeereee!”

  168. SoCal Rhino

    8 years ago Obama heralded the eternal triumph of the Dems and the departure of the Repubs to the dustbin of history. That lasted what, two years until the midterms. The downside of controlling both branches is you have little cover to hide behind, and if your govern like BHO, you won’t hold onto congress. If he pulls it out, he’ll have a narrow window.

  170. Roger Smith

    Here you have it my friends. The media and all of these arrogant echo chamber prisoners have been completely exposed. Krugman is going off the rails and blaming more white people and Jill Stein.

    The truth is winning.

    3. Waldenpond

      I was disappointed at how few votes she got. I’ll wait until the numbers come in but it looks like Johnson pulled more from Trump than Stein did from Clinton making Clinton look better than if 3rd parties did not exist. Stein clearly did not cause Clinton’s lose in Florida.

    1. TK421

      Gosh, I can’t imagine why black men didn’t support her. Maybe she didn’t bring them enough heels.

      1. JSM

        Believe tomorrow if anyone cares to admit it we will find Latinos weren’t buying the Dem propaganda and bowed out/went to Trump (the racist!) in a big way.

        [Also spirit cooking and as one person characterized it elsewhere ‘messin’ with el diablo’ may actually have been quite harmful among those fine folk (go back and look at the LA Times poll for when Hisp. support for HC really imploded).]

  172. fresno dan

    I was “for” Trump at the very beginning as a corrective to the repubs – because of my UTTER contempt for the repub establishment.
    Bernie would have been great…but the dem establishment I suspect is even worse than the repub establishment. Silkier, but more intelligently evil….
    If Hillary would have won, my cynicism would have been confirmed.

    I have no joy that Trump maybe the president (9:21 pm fresno time) I am angry that Trump was my country’s alternative to Hillary…
    God help us all…..
    I am thinking what is best for me is to give up my interest in politics…..

    1. jrs

      yea or just vote on the propositions, not that I am likely to love all the results on those of course, but direct democracy makes one feel at least one is really voting for or against something.

      Yea give up interest in politics, this country is screwed.

  173. Lambert Strether Post author

    These may be premature (I haven’t looked at the latest numbers) but this:

    And this:

    I saw exactly the same thing in my coffee shop when LePage won. All the NPR tote-bag people moaning about how stupid the voters were.

  174. OrangeCat

    Looks like a fait accompli.

    Nikkei down 6%

    Hang Seng down 4%

    Who will he be as president…I don’t know. It could vindicate him or be his undoing.

  175. Lambert Strether Post author

    These may be premature (I haven’t looked at the latest numbers) but this:

    And this:

    I saw exactly the same thing in my coffee shop when LePage won. All the NPR tote-bag people moaning about how stupid the voters were.

    1. fresno dan

      There is no more self righteous than Davos Man…..
      poor, racist white people too stupid to understand that rich, rich, rich technocrats always, always, ALWAYS want to do what is best for them….repubs are always why it never turns out that way….

      1. dk

        They want to, but of course they can’t because, don’tcha know, it’s not possible in the current political reality (of Davos).

        But they have a lot of sympathy and compassion!!

  176. edr

    Looks like Trump, republican House and maybe Senate. Now we’ll get to see what the Republicans do when it’s all up to them. WILL the banksters and the trade deals get their comeuppance ?? Less wars anyone?

    What about a country that voted twice for a Black President? How low will the accusers go in calling this a racist nation ?

    Can wait to see the neocon reaction.

      1. GMoore

        I misspoke. I have no idea who Mitchell is. My son sent me the links and there are 5 or so. He called them pollsters.

        https://twitter.com/LarrySchweikart

        This guy was terrific. Scroll through their tweets. They were hours ahead of everyone. And on the right margin, there are other tweeters they link to.

        This group had information that was sooooo insightful. They knew every spat, every precinct. And the boots on the ground in minor places gave them the heads up on what races to watch, and what to watch for.

        I never turned on my TV. They were all lying. I knew about Florida hours ago. N Carolina withheld their Trump win for tactical reasons. We knew NH was flipping. If one tweet didn’t have the goods, another one did.

        The Broward county drama was extraordinary. If you scroll through all these guys you will probably piece together the way the night unfolded.

        The NYT called the race for Trump hours ago. .. He was at 80% hours ago… then up, up

        Cable is dead. You tube was better, but not like Twitter.

  179. integer

    Wonder how the Clintons and their foundation donors are feeling? Hahaha.
    How about Poroshenko? Hahaha.
    So much shadenfreude.
    Delicious.

    (and now I think I’ll go and have a look at DKos)

    1. GMoore

      Yesterday’s water cooler. I posted a terrific interview with Charles Ortel. He is an expert on the Clinton Foundation. AND he is a lifetime Democrat.

      wiki leaks Chelsea’s wedding … JAIL TIME
      wiki leaks Teneo Doug Band …. JAIL TIME

      Find the link and watch.

      Trump meant what he said when pointed at her and said she belongs in jail. She does. A grand jury is an absolute now. I’m wondering if Bammy has the crust to do a blanket pardon for H and ALL her donors. Or else Trump will pay off the national debt with the fines, fees, and TAXES DUE because the Foundation was a SHAM.

      This is REAL serious.

      2. Anonymous

        Couldn’t find the link you describe posting. Would you mind posting again? Anyone else have the link?

        I’ve been following Ortel since Lambert first brought him to my attention and I’d love to see some new analysis from him. Thanks.

      3. Dwight

        I don’t think Charles Ortel is a life-long Democrat. Utrice Leid has interviewed him many times the last two months, and he has said he used to be a Republican.

      2. Lambert Strether Post author

        Took my own advice. From Kos front-pager Joan McCarter:

        immigration

        McCarter seems to be taking the position that “we wuz robbed” by voter suppression. Which is mere virtue signaling. If the Democrats gave a rat’s ass about the franchise, they would have made voter registration a core party function, and operated it 24/7/365 in 50 states. They haven’t, in the 16 years since Florida 2000.

        1. OIFVet

          The website being down is a stopgap measure until a proper wall can be constructed. Too bad for all my liberal friends who posted those lovely Canadian winterscapes on FB earlier, looks like they need to form alternative exit strategies.

      3. Archie

        Well, Digby is apoplectic about the fact that her America is choosing someone who brags ” that he grabs women by the pussy.” And another commentator points out the Trump’s margin of victory in MI is equal to the Stein vote in MI. The usual shit.

        1. TK421

          Bragging like that is, of course, much worse than pushing for the destruction of Libya and the casting of millions of human lives to the wind.

      4. integer

        The discourse at Kos can be summed up by considering a spectrum with the following two comments marking the extremes. The first comment opened the thread.

        By JamesC
        Wednesday Nov 09, 2016 · 11:44 AM WST
        Bernie woulda won.
        Just sayin’.

        Ugmo
        Nov 09 · 11:48:42 AM
        Shut. The. Fuck. Up.

        Adding: I will do a screen grab if I find anything worthwhile though.

    1. TK421

      Same here. What an awful person she is, and what an awful record. Hopefully this is the end of the Clintons.

  181. knowbuddhau

    “President Trump.” It’s already surreal. Will “Jail Hillary” be on his First 100 Days list?

    Thanks for the hospitality and the comments, one and all.

    2. Lambert Strether Post author

      Yves and I were talking about this.

      If Trump doesn’t set up a special prosecutor for Clinton (not sure how, but where there’s a will there’s a way) or if Obama pardons her, some sort of “Truth and Reconcilation” commission (my suggestion for the name) that will be just as bad as Pelosi taking impeachment off the table in 2006.

      The rationale — and this has the great merit of being entirely reasonable — is that the Clinton Foundation took money from foreign governments, and we need to know what deals were cut. (“What did the Saudis get for their money?”)

      That approach also has the great merit of trying to drive a stake into the heart or some other squishy internal organ of The Blob. They’ll find it harder to drive us into a war if they’re busy lawyering up for investigations.

        1. craazyboy

          Hillary hasn’t been charged with anything and I don’t see how Obama can pardon her from an investigation that starts/resumes after Jan 20.

          I don’t see how the timing works.

          We already had a few years of show investigations.

          1. none

            I don’t see how Obama can pardon her from an investigation that starts/resumes after Jan 20.

            Pre-emptively. Nixon wasn’t under any charges when Ford pardoned him.

        3. Yves Smith

          We’ve already predicted that (or more accurately Jerri-Lynn has) but that does not prevent an investigation, particularly of the Foundation. Obama cannot credibly pardon the Clinton Foundation.

      2. Waldenpond

        I asked this earlier… aren’t Presidential pardons for federal charges. That deals with actions taken as SoS but doesn’t cover foundation activities as foundations are subject to the States they are listed in?

        Again, I think the Rs approve of privatizing the State Dept and laundering money from foreign regimes. Do they enshrine these activities more effectively by ignoring or throwing a show trial.

  183. E Williams

    The first shock I imagine will be the repeal of Obamacare and the shrinking of Medicaid to pre-Obama rules.

  184. Starveling

    I really, really want to see the media hacks cry and weep and wail because the clarifications of this year have been stunning.

    American Brexit indeed.

    I’m sure Trump will be an awful president, assuming things go down as they look to be, but Lord it feels good to see Clintonism shut out. Maybe the Dems will realize they actually need to offer something real to us flyover proles if they want our votes. Probably not, but eh, feels good to see them squirm.

    1. Jagger

      I’m sure Trump will be an awful president,

      I agree but so was Obama and so would have been Hillary. I give Obama credit for one thing-he didn’t start a war with Iran. If Trump doesn’t start a war with Iran or Russia, I will be satisfied. Seeing all the Neocons desert Trump and flock to Hillary tells me more war was coming with Hillary. So Trump it is. And in 4 years, we will see populist and maybe even non-war politicians everywhere and some of them will mean it. We will have to suffer through Trump but we should have better choices in 4 years.

      2. OpenThePodBayDoorsHAL

        I wonder who Dick Cheney voted for but I think I can guess, anyone who didn’t get the signal when the Bush era neocons all lined up one by one For Her is really in a deep cognitive dissonance coma

    2. Procopius

      Trump’s unpredictability worries me, but one silver lining is that Robert Kagan came out strongly against him, so may not be able to get his hands on the levers of power again. We have no idea who Trump is going to bring in on foreign policy, but that was the thing that frightened me most about Hillary and her neocon buddies.

      1. Starveling

        Oh no, I agree entirely. I voted for the man, as a giant middle finger from the beating heart of southwest Ohio to the Clinton Dems. Will he be as bad as Clinton would’ve been? No. The entire apparatus of Clintonland and all their ilk need to be destroyed.

        If he succeeded tonight, he has single-handedly destroyed the two most toxic political dynasties of our era, and should be lauded for such.

        I just doubt he’d be a good president in the policy sense compared to someone like Bernie- whom I supported out of hope, not spite.

    3. Otis B Driftwood

      Now the GOP, which only a few short months ago was in total disarray, stands to control all three branches of government. Not only was Clinton an awful candidate, but she and her cadre of bootlickers in the DNC and across the MSM brought fire down on any democrat unlucky enough to run for the Senate or House.

  185. John

    Get ready people.
    We are about to have the country sold out from under us
    so fast we won’t know what hit us.
    Think post Soviet Union and the Vultures from the West.

    1. hunkerdown

      Local ownership would arguably be better than foreign absentee ownership. In the first case, taking it back in 2021 isn’t considered some sort of “taking” from the other country.

  186. VietnamVet

    Watching PBS because no commercials. Waiting for Michigan. At first excited now depressed. Pundits discussing why it happened. “Everything shifting”. Discussed bigotry. Even “condescending elites”. They did not mention Deplorables, being at war for 15 straight years, Cold War 2.0 or the Clinton family corruption.

    Tomorrow we shall see if the establishment will let it stand. Likely they will because the Republicans will control everything.

  187. curlydan

    Van Jones meltdown on CNN occuring. He almost conceded to the Trumpsters just now. Kids are going to bed afraid? Mine weren’t. The kids are alright. Both my kids knew both candidates were/are deeply flawed. I couldn’t help but shout out with joy when my 4th grader said he “voted” for Stein at his school today. I’d barely mentioned her.

    1. TK421

      “My Muslim friends are scared”. As scared as the people of Iraq and Libya were when the wars Hillary helped to make came down?

    2. knowbuddhau

      Yes, they are. I heard one in the background when I was on the phone earlier. He’s half Nez Perce, meaning his black hair and brown skin make him a target for gloating Trumpsters. Kids are taunting Other kids like him already, saying, “If Trump wins, you’ll be deported!”

      The fear is very real amongst the natives I know.

    3. Knifecatcher

      I thought Van was eloquent and thoughtful. I’m a middle-aged straight married white CIS dude, and I’m scared to see where this is going to go. I can only imagine how terrified anyone in a group Trump has demonized would be feeling right now.

      1. cwaltz

        Trump was actually kind to Caitlyn Jenner and actually said gay marriage was the law of the land.

        I do feel bad for immigrants, Muslims and any women who have to visit Pennsylvania Avenue or work in DC because at the very best he’s a male pig, at worst he’s a predator.

  189. Alex morfesis

    Very strange mandate…yes to 420…no to sheriff deportum…are the markets really down from trump or the two largest nations by population having flipped out in 12 hours on their own…india is having a bank “holiday”…chinese finance minister had suggested being nice in hong kong…told to go jump off a mountain…impeachment begins for french head klown in charge…quiet coup in south korea…egypt and saudi arabia about to go to war in syria…google starts cutting back expenses and brexit in shambles…

    Blame raz/putin…

  190. Daryl

    Some more cannabis results:

    FL – Yes on medical
    MA – Yes on recreational
    CA – Yes on recreational
    AZ – No on recreational (thanks old people)

    Still waiting on NV, ME (very close),

    1. Waldenpond

      Just saw NV listed as a yes for legalization. Yessssss! Also saw that Arkansas did medical? I didn’t even know they had it on the ballot.

      1. Daryl

        Wow, didn’t notice that either. That’s pretty amazing. If Arkansas goes for it, can’t imagine that any state with ballot measures won’t have medical soon.

  191. Observer

    The Dems are getting what they deserve, and Donald’s probably a harmless buffoon. But Pence scares me, as does the future for the Supreme Court. I suppose things have to get worse before they can get any better. PBS reported that Canada’s immigration site crashed. Our Brexit moment?

    1. curlydan

      Pence is a lunatic and is a key reason I did not want Trump elected. I hope I can deal with Trump’s volatility, but I had enough of the evangelical BS under W.

  192. ginnie nyc

    Times headline online now says w/98% returns in PA, Trump ahead 49 to 48. I hope I don’t have to stay up ’til 2 AM.

  193. fresno dan

    I have to say, even being a cynic, the country can surprise me. I never expected a black man to be able to be elected president in my lifetime.
    And I never expected the people, with the incessant, ubiquitous propaganda would be able to look at the situation and say, Hillary and the status quo may be good for you, but she is not good for us.

    If certain financial institutions that paid Hillary a lot of money are taking losses because of this unexpected development…..GOOD! people figured out a rising tide no longer raises all boats.

    2. Waldenpond

      Is it officially over?
      Even if it’s close and Clinton pulls it out…. Same here, very cynical and surprised. Every empathy and compassion for the voters, there was no good choice. The rejection of the status quo was a form of ‘rising up’, but it was in pain and anger. Things can get worse, and they will under the Rs, but I have hope that the fight will build and 2020 won’t just be a thrash in the opposite direction. I think the propaganda was just so over the top and in your face and people recognized that and voted against it too.

      The people that put money behind Clinton also put money behind the Rs and they have the house and the senate. I doubt it will take much to get what they want from Trump. A little shuffling on the deck of the Titanic.

  194. Lambert Strether Post author

    Our Unknown Country Paul Krugman, NYT. Unknown to you, Paul.

    Krugman doubles down, unsurprisingly:

    What we do know is that people like me, and probably like most readers of The New York Times, truly didn’t understand the country we live in [no duh]. We thought that our fellow citizens would not, in the end, vote for a candidate so manifestly unqualified for high office, so temperamentally unsound, so scary yet ludicrous.

    We thought that the nation, while far from having transcended racial prejudice and misogyny, had become vastly more open and tolerant over time.

    We thought that the great majority of Americans valued democratic norms and the rule of law.

    It turns out that we were wrong. There turn out to be a huge number of people — white people, living mainly in rural areas* — who don’t share at all our idea of what America is about. For them, it is about blood and soil**, about traditional patriarchy and racial hierarchy. And there were many other people who might not share those anti-democratic values, but who nonetheless were willing to vote for anyone bearing the Republican label.

    To this, I counterpose Bernie Sanders (again):

    And compare the humanity of the tweets from Sanders in the thread after this tweet to Krugman’s vicious — and wonderfully clarifying — screed. Krugman concludes:

    I don’t know how we [who?] go forward from here. Is America a failed state and society? It looks truly possible. I guess we have to pick ourselves up and try to find a way forward, but this has been a night of terrible revelations, and I don’t think it’s self-indulgent to feel quite a lot of despair.

    Good. I’m glad Krugman says he doesn’t know. Nobody should ever pay attention to Krugman ever again (not to imply that any neoliberal factions Trump brings on board are worth paying attention to).

    NOTE * Wrong on the data.

    NOTE ** The entire Democrat campaign can be viewed as a ginormous Godwin’s Law violation.

    1. OIFVet

      Is he incapable of drawing the proper conclusion, or unwilling to? I say unwilling, much like the Democrat Party and its liberal diehards.

    2. JSM

      Turns out ‘so manifestly unqualified for high office, so temperamentally unsound, so scary yet ludicrous’ was HC to a lot of people.

    3. TK421

      I just looked at Krugman’s blog for the first time in, like, forever. What was he writing about? Slamming Paul Ryan, discussing austerity, etc. He’s become a broken record.

    4. makedoanmend

      Sticks and stone may break my bones but words will never hurt me.

      Yeah, Pauli pile it on. But watch out as the deplorables are plunged ever deeper into the mire in the coming years. They may emerge with sticks and stones in hand.

      And they may live closer to you than you think.

      Flyover is only a metaphor Pauli. Deplorables live everywhere and they seem to be quietly (ever so quietly) multiplying.

      They are multiplying. Everywhere.

      As the sage of my wee village in Ireland used to say: I wonder why?

      Any insights Pauli? No? Paymasters not happy Pauli?

    5. Foy

      Sounds like he’s now throwing his toys out of the cot. So much for the ‘stronger together’ idea…rather it’s ‘you bunch of dumbasses, see what you did?!’.

      Yes Paul you are in a sheltered ivory tower and you really do not know what is going outside the walls… and reality is so far away from what you think it is. The problem is inside the ivory tower Paul, not outside…

    6. River

      What we do know is that people like me, and probably like most readers of The New York Times, truly didn’t understand the country we live in.

      Good on you! You admitted your ignorance, now the learning can begin.

      We thought that our fellow citizens would not, in the end, vote for a candidate so manifestly unqualified for high office, so temperamentally unsound, so scary yet ludicrous.

      But from the current results they didn’t vote for Hilary Mr. Krugman. So where’s the problem?

      We thought that the nation, while far from having transcended racial prejudice and misogyny, had become vastly more open and tolerant over time.

      Here’s a dose of tolerance for you in the comment section:

      We thought that the great majority of Americans valued democratic norms and the rule of law.

      They do. It’s the people who pay your salary who don’t. I take you didn’t read the recent New Yorker about ending democracy or Judge Rakoff’s article in the New York Review of Books? Well get reading Mr. Krugman, you admitted your ignorance, but that’s only step one.

      It turns out that we were wrong. There turn out to be a huge number of people — white people, living mainly in rural areas* — who don’t share at all our idea of what America is about. For them, it is about blood and soil**, about traditional patriarchy and racial hierarchy. And there were many other people who might not share those anti-democratic values, but who nonetheless were willing to vote for anyone bearing the Republican label.

      You were wrong. Yet, you still don’t know what you were wrong about. You’ve thrown your fellow citizens under the bus for 40 years. Their wages have not improved, the lives of their children have not improved and if anything have gotten worse. You complain about racism, yet your class does more to not only keep the races divided by exacerbating the differences. You heaped abuse on them and expected them to sit there and take it. While you took their cash, health, dignity and perhaps most unforgivable their dreams of rising above it all by playing by the rules.

      Yet, today you expected, nay demanded their support. They refused. Looks like you’d better work on that ignorance Paul.

      2. fresno dan

        River
        November 9, 2016 at 1:23 am

        Damn near perfect….I only wish it had been much, much, MUCH longer!!!

    7. Binky

      It’s not a Godwin’s Law moment (which you have grossly misunderstood) if there are really Nazis involved. And guess what? There are really Nazis, white supremacists, and a whole spectrum of similar believing folks on that side. They are proud of it. It is how they have constructed their identity. And now they have a whole bunch of momentum and a stack of wins to work from.

      Too bad there’s not much arbeid to macht frei right now-outsourced.

    1. Daryl

      Guess we get to see how much damage they can do in 4 years.

      I would say 2 years but midterm elections usually trend Republican anyway.

      1. craazyboy

        Like the 17 Rs Trump swatted away in the primaries? It’s possible the Rs can’t continue to punch down on their base either, and maybe Trump will realize he needs to remember his early populist talk.

        So there is the Trump veto to cure bad stuff from an establishment R congress.

        However, I do feel like I’m clutching at straws here.

        1. Daryl

          Trump seems like a rubber stamp kinda guy except maybe on the trade pacts. And where’s he getting his nominees for DOJ/DEA/etc from? Probably from the friendly folks at the GOP…

          1. craazyboy

            Yeah, I worry about his cabinet appointees and econ advisors, who he thinks are good generals, etc….

            1. Binky

              Gee, a guy in the casino business might have some exciting friends from alternative movements-Stormfront, La Cosa Nostra, Klan, hell even the Bundys. He’s got no strings to hold him down, the evangelical Protestants just want to see people punished and killed by a loving God, so why not David Duke for Secretary of Interior? Ammon Bundy, American enterpreneur hamstrung by regulations, running BLM? Sheldon Adelman must fit in somewhere, and maybe some of the Bulger boys to keep the FBI/Mafia guys represented.

              PT Barnum could never in his wildest dreams have imagined the sucker birth ratio of the 21st century. This way to the egress, I mean the Soylent tank!

              1. OpenThePodBayDoorsHAL

                Yes it is a real pity your gal was such a stinking cesspit of corruption, lies, and lawbreaking that people had no choice but to pull the lever for Trump. Maybe a little introspection is in order rather than lashing out, maybe Bush Term 3 and 4 were not such a clever strategy after all.

    2. Barmitt O'bamney

      What an asshole! Van Jones just explained on CNN that it was all Russia’s fault. They’re interfering in our elections – and getting away with it now! I suppose Jill Stein could be a Russian agent. Yes, that would make for a grand unified theory of how Hillary could possibly be losing this. They’re all in it together, all for Vlad and Communism.

      Heads are detonating. My only regret (so far) is that I’m too hammered right now to form durable memories of their delicious televised explosions.

      1. fosforos

        Van Jones started (only started?) as a Maoist–therefore as a russophobe of very long standing and deep ideological conviction

    3. ChrisAtRU

      #TheLastCourtJesterOfTheNeoLiberalCrown worked hard to discredit Sanders and Sanders supporters. I hope he is truly relegated to irrelevance now … he deserves no less.

    4. Andrew Watts

      Unless Hillary picks up a late surge of voters Stein didn’t make a difference.

      An economist who can’t do basic math though. Shocking.

      1. Jess

        I was hoping someone would identify him. Got the feeling I should know who he is but can’t attach a name.

          1. Jess

            Somebody commented that Van Jones was having a meltdown on CNN, but I got the impression that that occurred earlier. Must be he’s just playing the same sad song over and over.

            1. OIFVet

              Well, the Karl Rove meltdown of 2012 lasted a while too, as I recall. I would feel bad under normal circumstances, but the liberal nomenclatura’s Van Joneses have only earned my scorn.

      2. anon

        To be fair, it was Van Jones. He was upping the black just before that bit. He hit all the pity points.

    2. uncle tungsten

      They should send an invoice to the Clinton Foundation for the outstanding funds, and a scorpion to remind them never to return.

  200. Meh...

    CNN – The advisor to Obama just pulled the Russia card and started to blame Russia for interfering. Apparently they have now lost hope for Hillary. If the electorate will follow the popular vote, Trump will be the next POTUS.

  201. Steve H.

    Hmm, may just be a matrix glitch, but a CNN story about blacks not turning out for Clinton just disappeared.

    If this is taken as given: “Earlier attempts to create a liberal culture based on a consensus about oppression tended to produce a hodgepodge of groups that centrifugal forces could easily pull apart.”

    .. then the last group that the Democrats can blame is black, particularly urban black. That would undercut a prime postulate of the epistemology.

    1. Barmitt O'bamney

      That would be shooting themselves in their foot field hand. Article must be disappeared.
      If bros are going to be blamed, it will be Bernie Bros.

  202. 3.14e-9

    Just received an email from Pramila Jayapal thanking contributors for her victory. Jayapal was an early Bernie endorsement, replacing the fossilized Jim McDermott in Washington 7th congressional district.

    A little earlier, Zephyr Teachout sent an email saying that despite the disappointing results, we are proud, we showed the billionaires, etc. etc.

    Neither of them, despite being women trying to break through glass ceilings, were endorsed by HRC.

    1. Otis B Driftwood

      At least one result last night that was good. If the democratic party takes anything constructive from this devastating loss, it is that Jayapal is the future of the party. Clinton and neoliberalism, it’s past. But looking at some of the comments from the nomenklatura it appears the party has a long, long way to go. I’m hopeful they will get past their understandable disappointment that they thought they could control events and had it all figured out and realize just how badly broken the party is. Right now, I can’t say I’m hopeful that will happen.

  204. dcblogger

    I am sick with fear. The most racists elements of our society will feel empowered by this. Expect more black churches to be burned, more attack on Mosques, attacks on Hispanics, etc. To say nothing of the most racists elements within law enforcement feeling empowered. This is not going to go well.

    1. Aumua

      This is the real issue here. This is why I have not cast my lot in with the strategic voting clan. Even if he does not, deport the mexicans, build a wall, make muslims ‘register’, whatever he has said. Even if he does not do these things, he gives the green light to those attitudes of division, suspicion, and hatred along racial, cultural and religion lines. Trump as president will only further legitimize what many of his core supporters are really about: ignorance and hatred.

      The real white supremacists are very active behind the scenes right now, and they DO want a race war, and they are fighting for the minds of young people at this moment, and they are gaining traction. You best believe it’s true. What happens when they become more mainstream?

      In spite of all the bullshit that has been slung by the MSM at Trump, there are some really bad things about him being elected president. Things which have been minimized around here a lot lately, and understandably so. Some counterpoint to the endless propaganda coming from the MSM was needed. Well, now we are going to see.

    2. TK421

      You don’t think mosques were attacked when America bombed Libya, at the urging of Hillary? You don’t think President Obama deporting more Mexicans than any other president counts as an attack? You don’t think the anti-crime policies championed by Hillary in the 90s were racist?

  205. OIFVet

    Awww, the interactive electoral board on the MSDNC set broke down. It was overwhelmed by the sheer lack of electoral math hopium right after it delved into the truly negligible outstanding votes left to report in Dane and Milwaukee counties.

  206. Lambert Strether Post author

    The #BernieBros send their regards:

    I’m saying this because of something Ian Welsh said a long time ago (although I can’t find it and I’m paraphrasing): “The left must take Obama down, and be seen to have taken him down. Otherwise, there’s no left.”

    Well, it didn’t work with Obama, and we don’t have the numbers yet to know if Sanders voters staying home took Clinton down or not:

    1) If so, Sanders voters should proudly own that. It totally ticks me off when Greens make the argument that “We didn’t make Gore lose Florida!” Although factually this is true, tactically it’s terrible, because “Yeah, we did. And we’ll do it again!” is a far better position to be in (given that power concedes nothing without a demand).

    2) In years to come, Sanders decision to campaign for Clinton will be seen to have been wise, even if he took a bullet for it from some of his supporters. His move pre-empted the “Nader Nader neener neener!” mantra that Democrat loyalists have been yammering for years, and that now the left will not have to deal with. And Sanders always said that he couldn’t deliver his voters. Clinton had to make the sale. And instead, she smeared and insulted them, and appealed to Republicans. Of course, the Democrat loyalists, being what they are, will try the “Sanders Sanders neener neener” trick anyhow. But I think they’re boxed into the loser’s corner they do richly deserve to be in.

    1. Foy

      Wasn’t there a Democratic apparatchik back at the primaries/convention publicly threatening the BernieBros on twitter saying we will remember you when we win and not in a good way and you will pay the price? Oops…

    3. aab

      Even knowing that we’re probably looking at a Republican controlled Congress and knowing that Trump is proposing HORRIBLE policies in many areas, I am enjoying this. I won’t open champagne until she has conceded, because I know she could “get” a bunch of votes at the very end to flip these last states. But it sure looks and sounds like they flipped and faked as many votes as they could, and it wasn’t enough.

      I have been watching pundits all night suddenly talking about how most Americans are suffering. Jake Tapper has slapped down a bunch of nonsense claiming it’s all racism and sexism. I get the distinct impression the exit polling freaked them all out, even before the states started flipping. The only way the citizens’ anger at being screwed over for a generation was going to be heard was if she lost. And now we must organize. We were going to have to do that either way.

      The big question to me is, take over the hollow shell of the Democratic Party, or crush it with a new party. Is it possible to take over the Ds — as weak as it is now as a party — without being corrupted and co-opted? I now hate my former party to such a degree, I find myself recoiling at having anything at all to do with it. But given all the institutional constraints, it still may be smart to try; the answer is above my pay grade, as they say.

  208. Stephen Tynan

    Megyn Kelly on Fox asks “Anyone seen Huma?”
    and puts it all on Anthony Weiner — instead of the DNC and
    DWS.

  209. Jess

    Trump needs 26 electoral votes. If he gets WI and MI, or PA & AZ, he wins. Any combination of WI, MI, PA also wins. Only way he can lose is if he loses 3 of those four, or only takes WI and AZ, which would leave him 5 short. And of course, he haven’t seen projections or counts from Alaska and Hawaii.

  210. Fiver

    With it ‘leaning’ Trump, but with Clinton’s strength still to be counted in some areas (New Hampshire just flipped to Clinton by 18 votes), I don’t believe all these races are so close in the first instance – at no point was Trump this strong in so many places. Whoever ultimately wins will do so because TPTB made that determination. Perhaps the real power people switched horses at the last minute to Trump because a credible opportunity presented itself to mount another ‘peaceful’ coup a la 9/11 or the Financial Crisis capture of the Obama Admin, and there can be no doubt the money behind the Throne has to view Clinton as politically damaged goods, which means they don’t make as much money. But Clinton is not yet out, and a court challenge for voter-fraud or machine flaws or whatever could well be in the cards for very close races. A replay of Bush/Gore but with a more Dem-friendly Supreme Court.

    Anyway, if Trump should win, he will to the extent he actually acts in ways so many now fear be the catalyst that finally activates an authentic movement for major change grounded in the principle that the public interest cannot be secured within a system dominated by lawless corporate power, a movement that seeks deliberately to abandon neo-Imperialism (neoliberalism), one that renounces the blight of outsized financial and military and fossil fuel, and the Monsanto/Pharms complex of chemical engineering and mega-information power, one that recognizes explicitly that really investing in the future and finally taking on the challenge of pulling up all those left behind is going to involve real and substantial sacrifice for upper-middle and up incomes – the top 20%-25% certainly not the lower 50%. No more pretense that ‘we’ can ‘grow’ our way out of such massive,pervasive, structural, unjustifiably huge income disparity loaded with bias by race, sex, and most of all luck, family status, genes, connections, corruption, deceit et al dressed up as ‘abililty’ that should be compensated in orders of magnitude terms – made so much worse by the incredibly grotesque marriage of computer/information/digital/financial power.

    There’s no excuse now. The gauntlet has been thrown. Stop the TPP. Stop the war on Syria. Stop trying to run Russia and China off the planet. Anyone who has seriously observed matters over the years knew the US needed a great big shaking up, in fact, that it was just a matter of time. If Trump ekes this out, and does what is feared, it will be the biggest opportunity the left/greens/minorities and the world ever had in 2018 then 2020.

    Sanders would’ve clobbered him, absolutely clobbered him in a fair vote. When you blow an opportunity like that, you’ve no business in the game at all.

      1. Fiver

        Thanks for your reply. I realized when I posted it and saw the time I had already spouted off too long on the keys and was already possibly out of date. Definitely not cut out for play-by-play reportage, I guess.

  213. Patricia

    Post titles at Dkos;

    “Never restrict free speech on here, like Kos did in the primaries”

    “Bernie woulda won…just sayin”

    “Sorry for your heartache, but it was predictable”

    Heheh

  214. homeroid

    Here in my neck of the woods we lost TV over the air transmission more than a week ago. So anyone still up keep spilling the info as i aint watching other sites. Early yet here in AK so i still got lots a whisky left—dawg knows i need it.

  217. windsock

    Just woke up in the UK, listening to BBC radio, reporting Trump as likely to win.

    The tone is positively funereal. Although I have no dog in this fight, I feel a little bit of Schadenfreude (for the Democrats/Clinton).

    It’s almost like they’re reporting the Apocalypse.

    2. Plenue

      As someone on Planet Earth, you do have a stake in this contest. The candidate less likely to get us all nuked just won. Rejoice!

      1. jrs

        I suppose one could hope for the end of U.S. empire, a decline in living standards in the U.S. will follow, but it’s the right thing to do. Well one can hope …

    3. Clive

      Yes, I kept asking myself when they’d get the black ties out. (with the notable exception of Andrew Neil who has a marvellously jaundiced, cynical approach to the whole lot of ’em).

      I, if I’m being sensible (like windsock, figuring correctly that as I don’t live in the U.S. am immediately behind 324,707,000 other people who are better qualified by virtue of the fact they actually have to be resident there) try to keep my inane piffling about what I think it all might mean no further than inside my own head, where it rightly belongs. The BBC’s presenters and, presumably, editorial team, can’t but help let their Islington and St John’s Wood parochial pearl-clutching get the better of them.

  218. OIFVet

    It just occurred to me who the real guilty party is for tonight’s debacle: the RNC. If only they would have fixed the primaries for Cruz or Jeb, like the the DNC did in favor of Clinton, she would have won easily.

    1. Cry Shop

      But Bill suggested to Donald that he should run, anticipating he’d be the guy Hillary could beat, and he’d tear up the Republicans. A serious miscalculation because Bill lives inside the Washington loop.

  219. pretzelattack

    clinton apparently has to win wisconsin, michigan and arizona to win the election. she’s behind in all 3 states.

  220. Foy

    I would love to know what the Democrats internal polling showed in the last week or so as opposed to all the public polls and press which have proven themselves useless again. When did they realise they were in serious serious trouble and going down in key states, it would be fascinating to know.

    1. OIFVet

      I think that one can get a fairly good idea by the locations visited by its surrogates. Based on these, I think that they knew that Clinton was in trouble.

  221. BobT

    What most independent outsiders see is a lady proven to be a liar and a cheat. ANY candidate is preferable to this option and I give credit to the US voters who also see this.

    59yo Brit expat in Asia 30+ years

    1. pricklyone

      Yeah I dont see path for her now. She may get the popular vote, though, lots of votes to be counted on left coast and nv.

  227. ginnie nyc

    Times has just declared PA for Trump, at 49%. Very very close, but he pipped it. My people came through – the people who I went to high school with. Who used to be able to make a good living starting at 18 yo, either in the mills (now 98% gone), or strip mining (I know, I know, but still…), now completely played out. Now they’re trying to hang on ’til Social Security, and there kids have long left town, some via the recruiter.

    Some of these people still carry a torch for Ron Paul – Trump was the closest thing.

    Don’t think it’ll be long now ’til 270.

    2. jrs

      We’ll see how social security fares, no I don’t by any means whatsoever think only a Dem could cut social security but it would be more gratingly hypocritical if it was a Dem it is true.

  228. alex morfesis

    c-span has el donaldo at 264 taking penn…que the music…close up of barbara bain…cut to back of woman facing from oval office to rose garden…close up of match being lit…zoom in on cigar being lit…tilt up to val jarrett smiling…just hope that poor granny whose open wifi was used for the drive by hack is not totally railroaded…remember to thank naomi hood val…without her you would never have been able to leverage your way past the machine…congrats…

  230. munising

    Do folks think that the weight of the Presidency could cause Trump to have an Earl Warren-like transformation? Or is that just wishful thinking?

  231. Lambert Strether Post author

    Times gives PA to Trump:

    upset_3

    Atrios, only this morning:

    Every four years PA is classified as a swing state. Every four years, as the election approaches, there’s some media narrative pushed by the Republican campaigns (which, given ad buys, I think they believe) that they’re really really going to win PA no really their internal polling tells them that.

    PA is a swing state in that the vote is usually fairly close and no Dem campaign can ignore it. Gotta put the work in. But it is never (never say never, things change, but you know what I mean) some sort of wild card state where Republicans can pull off an upset victory. PA will go Republican only if it’s a Republican that is having a near landslide night. So, no, there is no “divert resources from Ohio and Florida and North Carolina and Indiana and Virginia and focus on PA” strategy that makes sense. If all of those states tumble, PA could too, but then the Republicans will already have won. The only reason for them to waste money in PA is to draw Dem resources into it, but given that money isn’t really a constraint in modern presidential campaigns, there isn’t all that much point in doing that either.

    Thing is, this morning he was right; and I would have agreed with him (having been, at one point in my life, a Philly blogger (Philly was an epicenter of political blogging, back in the early 2000s, for some reason)).

    But he’s not right now. As I said, the Brock wing and the Sanders wing of the Democrat Party have some strategic issues to discuss.

    1. subgenius

      The Orange Revolution apparently trumped the system. Not entirely sure what it says about the place, but chances are good that we can work that through, now that nuclear winter is on hold.

      1. jrs

        yes climate change will just kill us all (but Clinton was not good on climate, but Trump may turn out much worse)

        Some say the world will end in fire,
        Some say in ice.
        From what I’ve tasted of desire (er civilizations unending desire for fossil fuels)
        I hold with those who favor fire

  234. alex morfesis

    $hillary refuses to give concession speech…wow…melvin the martian podesta tells his krew to go home…

    1. OpenThePodBayDoorsHAL

      She’s either comatose from 6 conflicting meds or else having another batshit crazy swearing outburst at her poor staff the way she was at Matt Lauer

    1. Waldenpond

      I remember quite a few people screeching about accepting results. This is just so repellent that all of the bs of the whole sickening campaign is now blowback. I am angry at this. She created this. Take responsibility. It’s just another insult from this party.

    2. Lambert Strether Post author

      Reuters:

      UPDATE: 2:20 a.m. EST — Campaign chair John Podesta announced at a supporters party in New York City in the early hours Wednesday that Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton would not speak or concede just yet. The results showed however that the election was all but over after the Associated Press called Pennsylvania for Republican nominee Donald Trump.

      “It’s been a long night and it’s been a long campaign, but I can say we can wait a little longer, don’t you think?” he said. “They’re still counting votes and every vote should count.”

      Graceful in defeat. Oh wait…

      Podesta’s comment is fair enough, in the abstract, but no doubt the Clinton campaign has its election lawyers on the phone. I have to say, I didn’t see a lot of voter suppression stories tonight, and saw no reports of violence at all… But that’s what I’d be looking for, if I were a Clinton election lawyer.

  237. ginnie nyc

    CNN pool reporting Podesta says Clinton will not go to Javits, is remaining in hotel room. Podesta will go instead. She cannot face the music.

    1. Yves Smith

      One more comment like that and you get banned. Read our Policies on moderation. This comment is all of two minutes old (less time than you are allowed to edit it) and your older one is all of two minutes before that.

  239. Waldenpond

    Thank the Ds for nominating a criminal. Thank the DNC for being criminals and rigging an election. Thank the media for colluding with the Clinton campaign and the DNC to rig an election. Job well done.

    No need to worry about the Clinton’s. They will be fine. As someone pointed out, Clinton is the Ds Koch brother and controls vast amounts of party money. They aren’t going anywhere. Too bad.

    1. aab

      They don’t care about the party. They care about their own personal power and wealth. The only reason to stay active in the party at all is if they’re fantasizing they can ram Chelsea into the nomination for 2020.

      While that’s possible, I think it’s unlikely. They have a lot of very dangerous people who are going to want a refund and aren’t going to get it. Bill and Hill will focus on protecting Bill and Hill.

  240. cwaltz

    OMFG!!!!!

    Wanna really laugh your backside off?

    http://www.dailykos.com/

    Markos wants Bernie Sanders to be the DNC chair. I guess the whole entire we can win the Presidency without the Independants thing didn’t pan out. Who knew?

    1. Foy

      “We are stronger than they are, because we have the moral high ground.”

      Just like Krugman…Kos should have gone to bed and slept on it before writing something stupid…

    3. sd

      F*ck kos. Does kos seriously think thousands of his former readers are going to just magically pretend he didn’t insult, belittle, ban and bash them?

      Krugman, kos, Delong, blah blah blah.

    4. Antifa

      No one over at dKos has yet had the temerity to ask Markos how much he was paid to limit his blog to Hillary support only during the primaries. It’s a fair question. We’ll probably get no answer if we ask. Guess we’ll have to ask the Russians?

    5. Lambert Strether Post author

      We lick our wounds, we grieve, and then we fucking fight Markos, Daily Kos:

      No one is leaving this country. We love it, and we love our people. So we’re going to fight for it.

      But for now, let’s take a moment to grieve, because America isn’t what we thought it was.

      And then, we start fighting. And we’ll need a general. So …

      Bernie Sanders for DNC chair.

      Who is aboard?

      See, I’m an old-school blogger, so I know that “fucking” is what makes Markos’s message so totally authentic. So the thought that the Clinton campaign’s implosion smashed his rice bowl and he’s looking around for a new grift never entered my mind.

  241. aletheia33

    packing it in.

    lambert and everyone, thank you so much for this evening. i’ve followed the whole thing here. a welcome light, laughter, company in a dark time.

    not even sure now how to feel, what to think, tonight, other than we must all not give up but now will be more free to take up more productive activities than watching with horror this blasted election go forward. it’s time to take our future into our own hands, whatever age we are. things will clarify more in the coming days and that will serve us. it will become more apparent than ever where our responsibilities lie. we will well know what we must do.

  242. Plenue

    For the record, I’ve got multiple tabs open, bunch of different sites. MSNBC (248) and CNN (247) are being totally petulant about giving Trump the win.

    1. pretzelattack

      that would be interesting, in a fortune cookie curse kind of way. talk about gridlock, though, bush v gore dragged on for a month or so, and now we have a 4-4 sup ct on many issues. and neither clinton nor trump are the conceding for the good of the country type. if only we could prolong it for 4 years, we could get new candidates.

  245. Daryl

    Well, I’m callin it for me. Good night and good luck I guess?

    e: One last thing…I really hope there’s a list of Republicans who voted Hillary somewhere. I wanna see how fast those folks flee the sinking ship.

    1. subgenius

      WI 99% reporting – they’re going to cross the line…!

      OK, who bet money on the Trump win ???

  249. ProNewerDeal

    1 silver lining if Trump indeed wins, these 2 corrupt dynasties & a 3rd potential dynasty are OVER:

    Bush Crime Family
    Clinton Crime Family
    0bama Crime Family (Wiki page for 2020 Pres election says Michelle 0bama has declined to run in 2020)

    Hoping that the Sanders/social democrat/Progressive faction can take charge of the Ds from the DLC neoliberal Clinton/0bama faction

  250. Lambert Strether Post author

    How the Presidential Election Took a U-Turn in 2016 NYT (and with some terrific charts).

    Actually, the election was always going in a straight line. It’s just the the narrative took a U-turn. Of course, the Times controls (or did control) the narrative, so from inside the bubble the reversal of fortune may seem like a U-Turn.

    This is a good one, too: The Electoral Consequences of Republican Overperformance NYT. No, the electoral consequences of electoral underperformance by the political and credentialed classes: The press, the consultants, the professariat, the campaign operative, the think tank types — I’m looking at you, Neera Tanden! — and the 10% generally. They were repudiated. Volatility voters won….

    1. Doug

      It’s a wonder the NYT doesn’t see themselves as part of the problem.

      In a way they lead the MSM, and flubbed it.

      BTW, Thanks for having this tonight. It’s been interesting.

  253. Waldenpond

    Brutal. Absolutely brutal.

    Nina Illingworth ‏@NinaDontPlayMtG 5m5 minutes ago

    So, Hilldawg, is the reason you’re not giving a speech tonight b/c that’d make you miss your flight to Argentina before the FBI shows up?
    —–

    Nina Illingworth ‏@NinaDontPlayMtG 48s49 seconds ago

    Like, honest question – do you think Podesta is speed dailing embassies around the world as we speak trying to figure out who’ll take them?

  255. Lambert Strether Post author

    The Hollywood Reporter was covering both headquarters:

    Clinton @ 1 a.m.

    How did Trump take such an insurmountable lead? “It happened because our economy is changing, and the types of jobs that are out there for non-skilled labor don’t pay enough to lead middle-class lives,” said one Clinton committee member. “They blame the government and that is what Hillary represents.”

    The person added: “Makes you question whether everyone really does deserve the vote. Nation of idiots.”

    Trump @ 1:50 a.m.:

    Trump crowd is singing, “Na na na, hey hey, goodbye.” And chanting, “Call it!”

    “Our economy.” I see what you did there.

    2. Waldenpond

      ‘our economy is changing’ Eh, it’s just markets, it’s no one’s fault. It just happens.
      ‘they blame government’ It’s not policy. It’s markets. It just happens.
      idiots, don’t deserve the vote…. we should be ruled by corporations.

      So is this one for the guillotine watch?

    3. Andrew Watts

      The person added: “Makes you question whether everyone really does deserve the vote. Nation of idiots.”

      I’m glad the white liberal bourgeoisie can admit their shortcomings. They shouldn’t be allowed to vote. They could’ve won with Bernie but they chose to lose with Hillary.

      1. fresno dan

        Andrew Watts
        November 9, 2016 at 2:54 am

        ********************************

        ” I’m glad the white liberal bourgeoisie can admit their shortcomings.” That is MARVELOUS!!!

  256. The Infamous Oregon Lawhobbit

    Nothing substantive – I’m up waaaay past my bedtime. And I have two huge memos to get out tomorrow morning.

    But just wanted to say thanks to NC and The Commentariat for keeping my evening interesting.

      1. homeroid

        Dang yer funny. Coulda sworn there were some armaments sold that were ending up some where. You are right by the MSM we “could” avoid war by getting someone else to do it.

        1. pretzelattack

          coulda sworn we were using surrogates there. the word “we” refers to “us”. compare iraq, and compare russia to saddam hussein, and the difference between trying to enforce a no fly zone on russia and on the iraqi air force, for other helpful distinctions. dang.

  258. Kim Kaufman

    Trump at 276.

    Digby on Twitter: “Progressives must stop patting themselves on the back and think about the big picture here. America is voting for fascism not progressivism.”

    It’s people like Digby that’s a big part of why we’re here today, imo.

    Apparently Trump is going to speak soon.

    1. Waldenpond

      Appropriate. She did work really hard to get him where he is. They are rather partners in crime although I doubt this is the outcome either expected.

  262. Amateur Socialist

    Passed along from twitter via SMS (sorry don’t know who originated it):

    BRITAIN: Brexit is the stupidest, most self destructive act a country could possibly undertake.
    USA: Hold my beer.

    1. Barmitt O'bamney

      Does that count as her one phone call?
      She should have called a lawyer. She needs one bad.

  264. alex morfesis

    c-span gives Wisconsin and the presidency to el donaldo at 276 electors…

    thanks a million to the Y&L railroad…this is going to be interesting…

    onto 2018…

  265. Kim Kaufman

    Remember the Brit headline after Bush won [sic] 2004: “How can 59,054,087 people be so DUMB?””

  268. Lambert Strether Post author

    Donald Trump wins presidential election, plunging US into uncertain future Guardian (2:31AM)


    Donald Trump wins the presidency in stunning upset over Clinton     WaPo (2:37AM)

    A-a-a-n-d The Times calls it at 2:44AM:

    times

    Note, however, that the front page headline has not been updated to reflect the checkmark by Trump’s name.

    I’m picturing Baquet in the newsroom, screaming “Where is Steiner?!?!?!”

    UPDATE Adding, the establishment (WaPo and the Times) calling it is important; this is not like Fox’s early call in FLorida 2000 (some Bush relative, IIRC). The establishment imprimatur on Trump’s victory will make it harder for Clinton to contest the outcome.

    1. aab

      I’m glad somebody talked sense into the Clintons. It was funny how the networks were pretending they couldn’t call those states, and then she conceded and IMMEDIATELY they called the election.

      Trump came out looking afraid. Good. He should look scared. This is probably going to be a nightmare, but at least if he has a little humility, all those rallies with all those angry, desperate people may keep him from selling them all out immediately the way Obama sold out his voters.

      He seems to be focusing on infrastructure in his speech. Please let him prioritize that over tax cuts and private roads and all that other crap.

      Hey, am I safe from Brad DeLong now?

      1. Foy

        Just on Brad DeLong, that email he sent to Podesta begging to get his son a job may not be working out any more…

        1. fresno dan

          Foy
          November 9, 2016 at 3:04 am

          I am pretty sure that if I read the one from DeLong to Trump asking for a job for his kid, I WILL die of Schadenfreude

        1. Waldenpond

          They’re gonna do another big transfer of wealth with public/private partnerships and then they’re gonna privatize EVERYTHING!!!!

    2. Chris

      The Donald. Sunlight…

      I remember the joy at Obama’s win here in Oz. Hope. It was what many of us felt…

      Actions are always stronger, so we will see.

      Although not sure he’ll get to that inauguration given the powerful enemies he has. I hope he does become the next Pres and change occurs, whatever its form, it can’t be worse than what we’ve been living.

    1. JTMcPhee

      Yah, for a little schadenfreude go to kos and check out the owner’s sob story on the headline page: “We lick our wounds, we grieve, and then we fucking fight!’ Right, kos, fight for what? How?

  270. makedoanmend

    The Brits played the Brexit hand but the Americans just Trumped them.

    (My head exploded early this morning and I haven’t been able to find all the pieces. Maybe never will.)

  271. OIFVet

    I think I am going to be sick. I thought I could enjoy at least a moment of schadenfreude, but I can’t. I am just angry at the effing DNC and Democrat Party, the countless hacks who insulted Bernistas and the rest of the country, and their liberal echo-chamber. All of you liberul democrat bahstahds pointing fingers, I am pointing mine back at you. You did this, but it will be the rest of us who will suffer.

    1. Lambert Strether Post author

      The Tories are very good at knifing their leaders in the back and throwing them over the side for sharkbait when they need to; they did it to Thatcher.

      And the Democrats? Not so much. Expect doubling down across the board. Here’s a random tweet, but it’s my first sighting of a Blame Cannon being fired in the wild:

  274. nobody

    Katniss Everdeen
    February 23, 2016 at 9:23 am

    “Ditto. The exit of the last weeping bush with his family’s tail between his legs was a sight to behold. And a LONG time coming. The prospect of a similar final dispatch of the clintons at Trump’s hand is an opportunity too precious to give up. And the relentless, incremental deconstruction leading up to the final, ‘hillary, you’re fired?’ I can hardly wait.”

    1. nobody

      Maybe I misheard but I think I heard them play “You Can’t Always Get What You Want” when Trump’s victory speech ended.

      1. Aumua

        Yep. You can’t always get what you want, but if you get a small loan of a million or so from your dad.. and try sometimes.. good things can happen (for those who work hard).

        The rest of the people? Fuck em.

    1. craazyboy

      “I’m with Him” should roll off the tongue just fine with the evangelical wing.

      This really doesn’t sound like the craziness will finally end.

    2. cwaltz

      Watching Rove try to spin Trump’s win as a win for establishment Republicans and saying he needs to work with them was entertaining.

      He looked like a mix of afraid and elated all at once(since they all assumed Clinton would win this.)

  277. Waldenpond

    Jonathan Chait Verified account
    ‏@jonathanchait

    Jonathan Chait Retweeted Rod Dreher

    No. If American democracy still exists after Trump, the Democratic Party will be stronger than ever

  278. pricklyone

    Yves and Lambert, You guys are going to be mighty busy real soon. Good Luck, and keep the faith.
    I don’t envy you the coming workload.
    Me, i’m losing my Medicaid, presumably. And nothing any of these turds can do or say is going to get me back on the job.
    I know HRC was an impending disaster, and I love that this could be the end of the Bush AND Clinton dynasties. But with the exception of a couple random comments in Trump’s stock speech about getting along with Russia, he might as well be Ted Cruz. (with a R congress)
    Nothing but deregulation and tax cuts, and Rudy Giuliani to look forward to now.
    Oh, and I cannot forget Larry Kudlow’s econ advice.
    I’m too damn old, and too damn tired to watch the slow motion disaster.
    I just cannot afford to wait for the backlash, or movement, or whatever will be the reaction when people find out what this guy is really about.
    Cheers.

    1. Aumua

      Yes, Trump is, and has been all along, planning some pretty awful policies, so everyone get ready to bend over and pucker up. Of course one of them was going to win and we’re screwed either way. Right now I’m glad I voted with my values and beliefs, and did not participate in the total non choice that was presented.

      1. jrs

        yea me too, voted values and I’m glad, maybe I’ll have to keep doing it for the rest of my life.

        Yea he genuinely has planned some pretty awful policies like leasing off national parks etc.. (I’m not even saying Dems are pure and innocent but the guilt is in degree here), massive tax cuts for the wealthy etc..

        Plus even if Trump the guy isn’t all that bad, and he well might not be in his own half formed opinions, the people he surrounds himself with most certainly ARE that bad.

  279. MG

    Now that the GOP hits the incredible odds on the trifecta we are going to see what Ryan has wanted to do since 2010 (besides the obvious massive tax cuts by May barring a severe recession by Q2)

    -Block grant Medicaid
    -Planned Parenthood is toast (it will be completely defunded)
    -Obamacare is RIP with some kind of HSA/limited tax deduction in its place
    -Cuts in food stamps
    -Large cuts in housing aid and mass transportation
    -Lots of things the GOP has wanted to go after for a long time including the Endowment for the Arts and Humanities
    -Increased defense spending

    Just a question of when the next recession begins and if it prevents the GOP from going hog wild in the first 6 months.

    1. jrs

      No Obamacare won’t go away, remember the insurance companies want it (they wrote the legislation), and what big money wants they get, especially with the most expensive elections in history. They aren’t *just* ideological republicans, they are republicans riding a absolutely massive wave of cash, bought and paid for.

      Yea a recession is going to hit, I thought Sanders would be a good president in a recession, at least in sympathy for the people it will hurt. Nice pipe dream it was I guess.

  280. Pavel

    From the “jeez, ya think?” department, the NYT after shamelessly shilling for HRC and ignoring Bernie, writes:

    Mrs. Clinton watched the grim results roll in from a suite at the nearby Peninsula Hotel, surrounded by her family, friends and advisers who had the day before celebrated her candidacy with a champagne toast on her campaign plane.

    But over and over, Mrs. Clinton’s weaknesses as a candidate were exposed. She failed to excite voters hungry for change. She struggled to build trust with Americans who were baffled by her decision to use a private email server as secretary of state. And she strained to make a persuasive case for herself as a champion of the economically downtrodden after delivering perfunctory paid speeches that earned her millions of dollars.

    Donald Trump Is Elected President in Stunning Repudiation of the Establishment

    She didn’t even have the guts or grace to show up at the Javits Center. Well, Trump killed off the two dynasties. Time to reboot US politics.

    1. OIFVet

      She failed to excite voters hungry for change.

      After 8 years of hope and change, the voters were hungry for change. I suppose the NYT missed the irony, for Barry is infallible. Looking forward to his lie-barry going up in my neighborhood. No doubt it will omit the fact that President-Elect Trump (faaack, it burns my fingers to type that) is part of his legacy.

    2. pricklyone

      Yeah, and the writer is very concerned about DJT’s conflicts of interest overseas. It is to laugh. I hope they mercilessly hound Clinton, and forget about the deficit. That will keep ’em out of trouble for a little while, and let the world cool down

  281. pricklyone

    Addendum:
    MG above filled out the list nicely, I was too lazy to cover all of it.
    Everybody should be very concerned that Donald keeps himself healthy. Look what lurks in the wings. His VP is even more in the Cruz mold.

  282. pricklyone

    Smebody wake Bill, or get him off the maid, and tell him his plan did not work. (Getting Trump to run must have seemed like a sure thing.)

  283. Amateur Socialist

    I’m sorry for the people who will be hurt (maybe including me – I hope I can get cards when pence sends me to a gay conversion therapy camp). But I’m genuinely intrigued by what this massive failure of the Democratic party might make possible. It’s up to us.

    1. Lambert Strether Post author

      “The old is dying and the new is struggling to be born. In the interim, a variety of morbid symptoms appear.” –Antonio Gramsci.

      Teleology, sigh. But it does seem appropriate.

      1. George Lane

        I don’t think that quote is necessarily teleology. It is simply saying (I think a much deeper point) that when the old order is dead/irredemable/”no clothes”/etc and the new has not yet arrived, it is a time where things become visible ideologically and practically which are hidden or obfuscated during times where there is a stable economic/political/ideological order. And it is in these interim times that therefore new possibilities emerge. We live in interesting times.

  284. Michah

    Hopefully, as promised, he’ll re-instate Glass-Steagal and bring Wall Street to accountability something she would never do.

  285. john

    Remember when America was post-racial?

    Personally, I cannot wait. I’m liberal, but I think this country needs its guns and religion.

    Hillary is Sarah Palin. She quit every job on the ladder up hoping for the next-rung. I wonder what the Clinton Foundation’s income looks like next year. Do they all get their bribes back? The numbers should be a great intellectual study topic.

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/

    What a sh!t day to sleep in for an election blog.

    So now the games begin. Trump has no formal Republican support, but with the people at his back, he may sorta not need it.

    Trump will remember everyone who ever betrayed him, and he will collect his due. However, is he smart enough to keep the shadow-crats from appointing all his key cabinet positions.

    Yes, it means a terrible supreme court. Mitch Michonnel be damned, but he saved the Republican party by keeping the appointment off the agenda. I only feel sorry for the incacerated who will have to wait for prison reform.

    Not that Obama did anything for anyone who voted for him.

    Tom Tomorrow once asked, at the end of the first Clinton presidency, name four things he did you admired. At the time, I was very much pro-Clinton, but I could not.

    Oh, and the enviornment. Why did nobody ask Trump where he stood. Oh, because everyone is incompetent.

    Hillary has no constituency outside the beltway, and no number of debate questions could fix it. Pun unintentional.

    Also, she has parkinsons?

    My question is, what happens to all the Russian wagging we’ve experienced recently?

    Hold on folks, they may not have to cancel the Daily Show after all.

    1. pricklyone

      Well, they are still hollering “the Russians are coming”, but they just lost the ability to make it stick. Obama wasn’t making those noises before she did, right? And he don’t need to protect her a** now. He can go back to his revisionism and legacy polishing now. And shuffle off to Buffalo in a couple months.

      1. fosforos

        That just might be the case, seeing that the govt’s official organ (the NYTimes) has publicly recognized the existence of Aleppo as a functioning city under terrorist attack and the Tsar’s flotilla is offshore ready with the forces needed to clear the jihadists from the eastern part of that city (Trump had already told Clinton to write off those assets in the second debate).

  286. Waldenpond

    Good point in this tweet:

    Gunther Porchman
    ‏@GuntherPorchman

    @NinaDontPlayMtG So, if CF was above board, and not about influence peddling… donations should continue as before, right? Guess we’ll see.

  288. Lambert Strether Post author

    One last comment from me before I sign off.

    There’s an old saying in politics: “You can’t beat something with nothing.”

    In the end, the only reasons to vote for Clinton were that she was Clinton, and that she was not Trump. Not enough.*

    NOTE * I never took Clinton’s detailed policy pronouncements seriously, and neither would anyone else with an ounce of sense, because we can’t know what side deals the Clinton Dynasty cut with donors to get the many, many millions they lit on fire and then threw in the air.

    2. pricklyone

      Conversely, as well, I believe. Trump was the “NOT HILLARY”. I can’t find any positive in his message, either. Seems like two nothings summing to zero.
      G’night Lambert. Sleep as much as you’re able, you’ll need the rest, soon.

        1. aab

          There’s been a lot of talk about Bernays, because of all the propaganda. Back when I was in PR, my point to my clients was that in the long run, you can’t get what you want by lying. I specialized in helping clients figure out a message that was both true, and would move their target audience to do what they wanted.

          I realize that there are plenty of counter-examples. In the short run, misrepresentation and manipulation certainly can work. I just didn’t want to do it, and I carved out a very successful track record never, ever misrepresenting anything to anyone. I worked in business to business PR, which is a slightly different beast. But Trump’s campaign, frankly, shows that truthful messaging will beat dishonest messaging every time. America wants change, because most of America is suffering. Trump was clearly a change agent, and his slogan reflected reality: America is not currently great for most of its citizens. (Many American citizens would quibble with “again,” of course.) The status quo candidate should not have won this election, and both “I’m With Her” and “Stronger Together” were terrible, tone-deaf slogans. When she said “America is already great,” she lost. There simply aren’t enough people who agree with that statement. It should not work, and it did not work.

          1. fresno dan

            aab
            November 9, 2016 at 4:37 am

            Agree.
            And I think what put the nail in the coffin was not only the idea that there was no suffering, but ONLY racist/sexist as*sholes could even suggest that we were not in nirvana….

            1. Iowan X

              Also the Logo–arrow pointing right. Horrible. Lambert’s right, you can’t beat something with nothing, and a billion dollars later, that truth was proven again.

              1. aab

                That logo! That godawful, weirdly revealing logo. The blue left pillar, being dragged right by that blood red arrow (a sharp weapon), echoing Goldwater’s logo. Nothing warm, nothing curvy, the way humans and living organisms are.

                I guess you could give her points for honesty, choosing that one.

      2. Michah

        After The Great Recession come The Great Revolution. Maybe Trump will do what he promised, he’ll re-instate Glass-Steagal and bring Wall Street to accountability, something she would never do. That is probably what this was all about in the first place. Also maybe, printing money and get America out of debt before it’s too late instead of giving it for free to Wall Street to prop up the Market. Maybe he’ll end the special interests domination of Washington. That’ll be real change – not like the empty hollow follow-the-leader Obama that fracked and droned America into oblivion.

    3. Amateur Socialist

      I watched the entire WS including ads from both HRC and DJT. For all her hundreds of millions of dollars in messaging and image etc the only thing in the HRC ads was “I’m not Trump”. This is the best her crack team could put in front of the largest pre-election TV audience they could buy. I replayed some of them via the DVR to watch carefully and make sure I didn’t miss something.

      It turned out to be less than nothing in the end.

    4. dk

      That Clinton policy page kept changing, morphing even in October (a lot of the most obvious privatization got scrubbed); anybody trying to get traction on her actual positions and intentions (to support or to criticize) was surely frustrated.

      Postmortem (and jumping the gun on real analysis) I think we can see that polling must have been off by a crucial 2%-4% throughout the campaign, for various reasons including the difficulty (for lack of a snarkier word) of reaching disenfranchised voters who had every reason to vote anti-establishment.

      And thanks Lambert, you rocked it.

  289. uncle tungsten

    Thank you NC and Lambert for a wonderful, therapeutic (partially) and enlightening election coverage. Truly on awesome site is NC.

  290. paul

    As the BBC put despondently put it:
    “This will give encouragement to insurgents everywhere”
    I hope trump says thank you to the Scottish Labour Party, Kezia Dugdale and John Mcternan’s late intervention for hillary has worked its electoral magic once again.

    With putin’s catspaw in the whitehouse, the DNC can go back and really work out why the deplorables don’t get insecurity,debt and criminality.
    On to 2020!

  291. Laruse

    Lambert, thank you for everything. This was a rough night at my house and I was grateful for NC and your commentary. I don’t see much chance of sleep in my future tonight (this morning??), but I hope you get a good long rest and I look forward to reading more from you when you get back. Best wishes.

  292. shinola

    Wow! This election turned out differently than I thought it would.

    Thanks to Lambert, Yves & Jerri-Lynn – been watching NC all evening with CNN as backround noise.

    So Trump appears to have won…

    Time for Moar Beer & another bong

  293. skippy

    Thank Dawg I was at work all day, on the tools, and did not have to damage my synaptic pathways seeing or watching this episode of the galactic dark comedy… anywho…

    The DNC liberals are really – their – own worst enemy, DKos and Krugman going mental, Delong and all the other vealed pens…. its a sight to behold…

    I imagine El’Trumpos first 100 days will be filled with settling some old scores, legislature to make AGW unlawful and banned from entering the USA, calling the Clinton’s at least once a week and slowly stir them about going to jail until their pitiful moans and groveling bring tears of joy to his eyes, then wait another week rinse and repeat, more freebies to the C-corps and last but not least pump endless wads of money into MIC to make “America Great Again”….

    Disheveled Marsupial…. more than anything remove any vestiges of labour and human rights so that everyone not making the cut… gets – FIRED – and it can only be self inflicted….. rule #1 of neoliberalism – Because Markets – Die

    PS… best part – is – tomorrow is the start of the 2200 preznit and clown car wacky races…. oh the unimaginable joy~~~~~~

    1. Cry Shop

      Nate assumed the old rules of anonymity exist, the people know better.
      http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/11/voters-repudiate-clinton.html#comment-2702710

      No one trusts pollsters to not have a virus on their network, or just to be dishonest; and thus many will not speak their minds on an issue which can have such severe impact on their work and social life. Anyone planning voting(or who has already voted) for Clinton in a Trump heavy environment or anyone voting(or who has already voted) for Trump in a Clinton heavy environment, is very likely to think twice about giving any information to an “anonymous” pollster, and if they do, they will probably lie in a way that protects them best from downstream consequences. The downside of honest is just too great.

  296. Another Anon

    Lambert, Yves & Jerri-Lynn,

    Many thanks for the coverage. I knew it was going to be a terrible night
    because one of them was bound to win. My anger is at the democratic
    nomenklatura who by hook and by crook, made sure than Sanders
    could not win the primary. So what now will emerge from the ashes ?

  297. european

    New Hampshire, 93% reporting.

    Trump is ahead by 307 votes.

    Rocky De La Fuente has 636 votes so far.

    Amazing.

    The media in Austria and Germany are in shock by the way. They believed their own propaganda, it seems.

  298. Praedor

    Ah…so Nuland won’t be Sec State and Kagan is done. Perhaps all those clowns will RESIGN now and disappear.

    1. pretzelattack

      no such luck, i fear. they’ve been morphing politically for decades, they know how to survive momentary defeats in washington. they’ll be back, and may have various footholds in the trump administration.

    1. John

      Another 4 years of the elites looting what is left of the middle class.

      Which will pretty much be gone by the end of Trump’s term if they do what they
      have promised to do in the past 8 years should they seize the House, Senate,
      and White House.

  301. Barry

    Hilary Lost Florida, Wisconsin, and Minnesota to GARY JOHNSON . Not Donald Trump but for this “Ralph Nather” Hilary would be PRESIDENT.

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