Guru Grades:The Annual Business Week Stock Market Forecasts (Last Updated 1/2/08) CXO Advisory Group. Includes performance ranking of sixty forecasters. Hat tip Abnormal Returns.
Is The US Political System The Best Reponse To Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem? The Stalwart
Stagflation cometh Joseph Stiglitz Project Syndicate
How municipal bond insurance works Accrued Interest. A useful primer.
Daily alcohol use causes changes in sexual behavior, new study reveals PhysOrg. Daily drinking make fruit flies randy.
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re Business Week stock market forecasts:
“The following table ranks the 60 experts who participated in at least three annual forecasts during 2003-2007 based on their average absolute percentage error during that period. We did not include forecast records for 1997-2002 because, as shown by the first chart above, forecasting was apparently much more difficult during those years.”
I don’t understand why one would not include data about forecasting accuracy because “forecasting was apparently much more difficult during those years.” WTF?