As the US, as the biggest creditor and exporter in the late 1920s was hardest hit by the Great Depression, China now looks to be taking the global slowdown on the chin.
And in a further sign of distress, the Baltic Dry Index, a measure of contracting prices for dry cargo shipping (and seen as an indicator of international trade) continues to fall. Today it hit 684, down from a peak in May of 11.793. That is a decline of over 94%.
From Bloomberg:
House prices in Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangzhou are plunging, and the global economy may grind almost to a halt next year because of it.
Construction of homes, offices and factories fell at least 16.6 percent in October after rising 32.5 percent a year earlier, according to Macquarie Securities Ltd…..Building is the biggest driver of China’s expansion, contributing a quarter of fixed- asset investment and employing 77 million people….
“China is now at the heart of the global slowdown,” said Jim Walker, chief economist at Asianomics Ltd., an economic advisory firm in Hong Kong. “It means that global growth is probably going to be dragged down close to zero next year.”…
“The real estate sector has seen a particularly pronounced slowdown,” said Louis Kuijs, a senior economist at the World Bank in Beijing. “Real estate investment growth is now close to zero.”…
A second stimulus package to boost consumption may be imminent, the Beijing-based Economic Observer reported Nov. 24. Measures being considered include raising income-tax thresholds, higher salaries for state workers and increased subsidies for low-income groups, the newspaper said, citing people involved in discussion of the plan.
China has room to spend even more than already announced because it has debt equal to 15.7 percent of gross domestic product — compared with 75 percent in India — a budget surplus and the world’s largest currency reserves at $1.9 trillion, said Lu Ting, a Hong Kong-based economist with Merrill Lynch….
“If real estate contracts by 30 percent it doesn’t matter how much the government spends on infrastructure, the economy is still going to be very weak,” said Paul Cavey, a Hong Kong-based economist at Macquarie who forecasts a 6.6 percent expansion next year. “Property is the epicenter of economic weakness.”
11 comments
Comments are closed.
House(kinda a joke since almost everyone in any size city lives in condos there) prices in China were pretty surprisingly high when I was there, about a third to a fifth of the prices in America depending on the city. This is in a country where the median incomes are much lower.
Other expenditures are much mo' lower too, though, and most of the purchases involve large amounts of cash down.
Home mortgages are not likely to hurt their banking system — though plenty of other things could, including C&D, and industrial loans — but it's coming right out of the hide of the owner. Should do wonders for consumer spending, but I don't think house prices are as critical an issue in China as in Australia, Spain, the U.K., or the U.S.
Building railroads can help the construction employment for a while. If a extensive railroad net can be built in the next few years, then it will lower the transportation costs and save energy in the future. Not a bad strategy for now.
ndk,
Issue is that RE construction itself has been a massive drive of growth, not wealth effect as a driver of consumption, which has happened in advanced economies.
I’m wondering if there is some sort of cultural or other reason why china refuses to address socialized healthcare (or any form of healthcare) with the same magnitude as it does with transportation? (other than the fact that healthcare has little to do with the exporting sector)
Agree with that, Yves. They have a lot of new physical infrastructure built out already, even way out in the sticks. Wonder what the next wave of development for China’s going to be; it’s not obvious to me, to be honest.
I’m wondering if there is some sort of cultural or other reason why china refuses to address socialized healthcare (or any form of healthcare) with the same magnitude as it does with transportation?
IMO, they have a ton of people, not many jobs, and a collective mentality. The individual, their health, and their happiness just didn’t seem all that important.
“The individual, their health, and their happiness just didn’t seem all that important.”
And that’s the paradox…it is important b/c they save 25% of their paychecks to maintain health and happiness.
mindnumbing.
“The individual, their health, and their happiness just didn’t seem all that important.”
Nice ignorant stereotype. So, how long have you lived in or studied China?
FXP is really flailing, I suppose the market is really expecting a phenomenal second stimulus package.
A 2 trillion surplus isn’t much in a nation of 1.3 billion. That can go pretty fast.
They’ll be OK for a few years, but beyond that time frame , continuing economic weakness will create extreme political volatility.
But honestly, another worldwide depression is going to destabilize every country.
Nice ignorant stereotype. So, how long have you lived in or studied China?
I’ve been there quite a few times and lived with some really welcoming, warm families who complained about the same thing. I love the country and its people, but call it like I see it.
Academic studies also have been done on the subject.
@mxq
I think a logically convincing narrative can be constructed that focuses on the sheer size of the country. Large population allows the govt to place a low premium on individual lives. The need to maintain central control over such a large country creates a bias in favor of infrastructure investment that keeps fiscal investment under central control when encouraging economic development. Repetition over time becomes ingrained within culture and society.
First problem with this interpretation is that its elite centric framework minimizes the influence of the masses, a hard sell in a country with a history of bottom-up elite substitution(revolutions). Second problem is that it incites moralist whinging, as anon @751 kindly demonstrated.