IRS May Push for Tax Compliance in Virtual Worlds Washington Post
E-Waste Not Time
Neoconservatism dies in Gaza Juan Cole, Salon
Obama’s bang for the buck Models and Agents
Leading economist fears decade of weakness in US Times Online
Villa prices fall by up to 45% amid real estate slump Arabian Business
This really doesn’t look good Brad Setser
Lessons from shorting JGBs – the credible promise to be reckless John Hempton
The bond bubble has long since burst: investors, ignore this at you peril Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Board (in)competence and the subprime crisis Harald Hau, Johannes Steinbrecher, and Marcel Thum VoxEU
U.S. bank earnings may be “frightful” Reuters
Antidote du jour (hat tip reader Ista, who says the cat loves sleeping in his “surrogate sink”):
6 comments
Comments are closed.
Interesting article:
===================
Crisis Watch January 8, 2009
A Stronger Yen is Pummeling Japan
With exports suffering and consumers at home not spending, the government may have to intervene to hold down the currency and prop up the economy
By Ian Rowley
…
Link
================
Yves – interested to hear what you and your bloggers think of this:
http://business.smh.com.au/business/markets/rba-auction-draws-a-blank-20090112-7epw.html
RBA auction draws a blank
January 12, 2009 – 11:09AM
Australia’s central bank said on Monday it had received no bids in a $10 billion repurchase tender, suggesting demand for US dollar liquidity had ebbed from last year’s intense levels.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) had offered to lend U.S. dollars for 28-days at a minimum bid rate of 0.65 percent.
This was the fifth U.S. dollar swap tender by the RBA originally aimed at meeting international demand for the currency amid a global credit squeeze.
The RBA and a number of other central banks last year established and then expanded U.S. dollar swap lines with the U.S. Federal Reserve to meet demand for dollar liquidity.
Reuters
Turkish olive oil?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R0nxtDBnqhI
In the forepeak of the vessel Growltiger sat alone,
Concentrating his attention on the Lady GRIDDLEBONE.
And his raffish crew were sleeping in their barrels and their bunks–
As the Siamese came creeping in their sampans and their junks.
Growltiger had no eye or ear for aught but Griddlebone,
And the Lady seemed enraptured by his manly baritone,
Disposed to relaxation, and awaiting no surprise–
But the moonlight shone reflected from a thousand bright blue eyes.
And closer still and closer the sampans circled round,
And yet from all the enemy there was not heard a sound.
The lovers sang their last duet, in danger of their lives–
For the foe was armed with toasting forks and cruel carving knives.
Then GILBERT gave the signal to his fierce Mongolian horde;
With a frightful burst of fireworks the Chinks they swarmed aboard.
Abandoning their sampans, and their pullaways and junks,
They battened down the hatches on the crew within their bunks.
Stolen from: T.S. Eliot – Growltiger’s Last Stand
Nate Silver ripped Mankiw a new orifice this morning. Mankiw–with typical humility–responded, “(Silver) offers a teachable moment.”
Any comments from Smart People here? Yves linked to the Romer and Romer paper and I recall that it was tough going. I had real issues about how a tax cut can be characterized as endogenous vs exogenous, and I’m also confused about why motives should matter so much.
“but there is a huge amount of cash sitting on the sidelines right now, and the normal course of events would be a wee bit of a rally somewhere along the line before things go lower “
I am adverse to the cash sitting on the sidelines metaphor, as it implies intent to get back into the game, and measurably so. Cash is moving to other asset classes, specifically to feeding the governments (I don’t think actual money supply is keeping up with deleveraging.)
As for “wee bit of a rally,” whats wrong with 750 to 900 in 6 weeks? There was a time when 20% would have been considered a rally. For us bears, the failed testing of 900, plus rapidly falling volatility (too fast for my calculus) caused me to bulk up on my puts.
The rest of the conspiracy theory about bush is silliness. How is he going to spend 350B in 10 days? Even if he could the congress would make sure it was Obamas to spend not bushes.
Did you ever consider that both Bush and Obama are on the same strategy, and both are wrong?
given that so much of the economy is now in political hands, the sell on the event play happens after innaugaration – when the market comes closer to grips that our new Oracle did not change the world on his first day.