Frank Veneroso is skeptical that a downturn of this magnitude could be nearing an end as soon as the markets seem to believe. He parses the data and investor psychology.
Another useful take comes at the Financial Times, where John Authers interviews bear market expert Russell Napier.
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The argument is that different types of recession result in different types of recovery. Deeper recession typically see equity markets rallys which come to nothing as fundamentals have not changed.
The commonly held belief that equity markets lead the real economy by six months while holding true for milder recessions does not seem to apply to deep recessions.
Deep down neither argument seem quite right for the current scenario to me. Everything happens on a much shorter timescale than it used to in previous recessions. What it feels like is that the equity markets are actually a month behind the real economy.
In my mind there has been a levelling in decline during february and march as retailers buy in new stock, but I am expecting further steps downwards as export numbers begin to fall further.