Didn’t Henry Paulson promise us the TARP was an investment and the taxpayer might even show a profit? Shows the dangers of buying what an ex-Goldmanite is selling.
The TARP losses, as estimated by Ethisphere, are $148 billion as of June 19, so it is a bit dated. The flip side is I am hearing word that we may have more money disappear into the AIG black hole in the coming months. Since AIG has only used $134 billion of the $180 billion authorized (only with AIG and the DoD can you say something like “only $134 billion”), another leg down may not mean an increase in the commitment.
The TARP tally presents its methodology and has a sense of humor. For instance, it has a category of “Calamity Investments” ( Bank of America, Citigroup, JP Morgan, Wells Fargo and AIG).
From Ethisphere (hat tip Robert Oak):
According to the Ethisphere TARP Index, when markets closed on Friday, June 19, 2009, the government’s Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) investment was down approximately $148.2 billion. Created by the Ethisphere Institute, a non-partisan research think-tank, the Ethisphere TARP Index tracks the U.S. Federal Government’s return on its investments under the capital purchase portion of TARP and the government’s accompanying loan guarantees provided to Bank of America and Citigroup. With ten of the nation’s leading banks now having paid back their TARP funds, these investments stand at $510.7 billion. To date, each taxpaying household has lost $1,233.
“The $68 billion pay back of TARP funds caused a drop in the bottom line of the Ethisphere TARP Index, but the overall percent decline didn’t see much change,” said Stefan Linssen, Managing Editor of Ethisphere Magazine and one of the lead research analysts behind the Ethisphere TARP Index. “Aside from the large asset guarantees of Citigroup, the last big heavyweights in the Index now are Bank of America, AIG, Citigroup’s CPP money and Wells Fargo, and unfortunately, they are still weighing down the Index. However, with the pay back of TARP money this past week, taxpaying households did see a decrease in the losses they have suffered under TARP, going from $1,361 to $1,233.”
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I'm at a loss wether to laugh or cry at this. If ever sheep a.k.a we the people were sheared better in history, I'm yet to hear of it.
Hope progress is strong re: your book Yves?
Have you read Tim Bond's analysis yet? Here's the link:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3c4c37ba-7c51-11de-a7bf-00144feabdc0.html
He's a genius or a fool. Time will tell.
Good luck with the book.
That's Communism!
(Is that marked-to-market Communistic losses or marked-to-fantasy?)
Sid
What does Quelle mean? Is that French? When coupled with surprise is the couplet redundant?
Why would anyone expect the TARP bailouts to not loose money?
Siggy:
Quelle is a German word (you didn't know that Siegfried ?!!).
It means "source"……often used in bottled water names in Deutschland.
Oops, Siggy, I misread what you were asking……..(face is red).
In this case, Quelle Surprise is French. Yves uses it fairly often, it means "What a surprise !".
Usually when used by English speakers in this way, its usage conveys heavy sarcasm.
The French "Quelle" is pronounced in Englsh like the "kell" in Kellog.
The German word is pronounced "kvell-eh" with both k and v sounded.
Being unschooled in econ or finance, this is the most substantive post I've ever been able to contribute here :-)
hope it's not tooo pedantic.
Clearly, if TARP investments were going to be winners, Goldman itself would have been set up as the party with the upside. If there could have been gains, part of the investment would have been privatized.
Not to be too cynical, but if a government policy about banking does not entirely privatize the gains and socialize the losses, 'Goldman' will not allow it to go forward.
their numbers don't jive internally:
their top three losses total < $60B
AIG (AIG) – with an estimated loss of $30.0 billion
Citigroup (C) – with an estimated loss of $24.5 billion
Wells Fargo (WFC) – with an estimated loss of $2.3 billion
so small institutions total more than $110B? that seems quite impossible!
SiriusPscho
My family stopped speaking German when I was four. I studied German in High School, and used it a bit when I was in the Navy in the late 1950's. I've not had occassion to use it since, hence my Deutsche vocabulary is very shallow. I do note that Yves uses it often. My expression for what it appears that Yves intends to convey would be: shut-up, or, get out of town. I have other expressions, however, they are of the teutonicly scatological genre.
Babar,
How lovely, the reported loss figures are theater just like the stress test results. No wonder the Fed is so intent on not wanting to be audited. Were a proper audit to be published I would not be surprised if the body politic exercised their right to a revolution. The 7 year treasury sale that was announced today seems to have sold well whereas the 2 year offering was less well subscribed. Despite the slick presentation made yesterday by Mr Dudly I continue to expect increasing inflationary pressure, primarily thru interest rates.
Let Us Pray!
Now that government has banking, insurance and auto situations under control why not fix health and pollution…..we are so screwed.
Does Ethisphere only update their TARP index when the market is down? Coming up on 2 months and no update on something that could be automated to update daily.
Yeah they're really "non-partisan"… AIG goes up to 40 (from 10) and now it's been 2 months since their weekly page has been updated.