Matt Simmons Claims Much Bigger Gulf Leak in Progress

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Truth be told, I’m not certain whether this is alarmist or accurate. While Simmons does deserve credit for being early to focus on peak oil, he was notably wrong in 2008.

This is a different sort of call here. Given Simmons’ reputation, it is quite conceivable that he does have better access to information than MSM journalists. Regarding his suggestion of using a nuclear weapon to stop the leak(s) (which I have advocated too) note that some readers have argued it would not work on the soft ocean floor in the area of the leak(s).

Via Bloomberg (hat tip Michael Shedlock):

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39 comments

  1. Doug Terpstra

    Yikes, hurricane season is coming. Booms will be spaghetti.

    This jibes with a report from almost a month ago that then seemed like Chicken Little hyperventilation. It’s quite apocalyptic and quotes a credible engineer who explores the “Bruce Willis” (Armageddon) option—explosives—as quite plausible.

    http://pesn.com/2010/05/02/9501643_Mother_of_all_gushers_could_kill_Earths_oceans/

    Another, from exactly one month ago, warns of a similar potential planetary disaster:

    http://blog.al.com/live/2010/04/deepwater_horizon_secret_memo.html

    Yet another on now-familiar duplicity: “White House Covers Up Menacing Oil ‘Blob'” —http://oilprice.com/Environment/Oil-Spills/White-House-Covers-Up-Menacing-Oil-Blob.html

    These reports looked hyperbolic at the time, but have now been largely vindicated, whereas BP’s disinformation is now throroughly discredited.

    Obmama’s too. Paraphrasing: “I go to sleep and wake up with this problem as my top priority.” BUT— “No, I don’t know if the head of MMS was fired or resigned.” Which is it?

    Increasing this looks like Pandora’s box opened in the bowels of Gaia Earth. It parallels the rape of “Pandora” in James Cameron’s movie, Avatar, in which the planet itself finally revolted against the insatiable predators.

    The Mayan “passage” of 2012 draws nigh.

    1. john bougearel

      Death of Nature by Carolyn Merchant details a history of exploitation of mother earth since the scientific revolution. Mother earth as a living benevolent nurturing metaphor for 1000s of years was flipped to be a mechanical model metaphor to be probed and exploited…

  2. dearieme

    So prohibiting drilling on the continental shelf while encouraging drilling in deep water has worked out really well for the USA, hasn’t it?

    1. ArmchairRevolutionary

      That is a ridiculous statement. It implies that there is enough oil in shallow depths when this is not true. Oil companies are going after oil in shale, tar sands and even deeper waters. This is simply because we are running out of easy oil.

  3. Dwight Baker

    Folks,

    The BP OIL DEBACLE has a cure. I have had a plan to do such in their face for about a month. Sent it into Investor Relations in England, they were the only ones that ever replied, the BP crews they have on staff in the USA are in my oil and gas terms short term’ers and loser’s. With hours of research my conclusions about the events that transpired before the blow-out then the flooding the Deep Horizon with water that made it sink all of those things STINK.

    Now my job is not to assess the guilt shame and blame of the debacle my job is to TAME NATURE that BP un-leashed and at this time they have no clue what to do. Or do they?

    The story that needs to be dug out looked at dissected then published is in the news today. The Rothschilds and Rockefellers are spending money right and left acquiring properties in the US. One of their drilling partners in the well that blew out may be a target for them to acquire. John D. Rockefeller said, “The best time to buy is when blood is running in the streets”.

    Some who are real savvy in the stock market can easily if they will look for the pattern that is going on today. Enough said about that.

    TAME NATURE
    TO President Obama staff and workers on the
    BP OIL DEBACLE BOONDOGGLE.
    By Dwight Baker
    May 28, 2010
    Dbaker007@stx.rr.com

    I am tired of swimming upstream to get my TAME NATURE way approved to be the way to bring a halt to the oil and gas coming from the Deep Horizon.

    So to help things along so that you might get to see the plans of the how to do it some day in the future all you must do is remember TAME NATURE then google dbaker007@stx.rr.com then pick a site and read the how to do it.

    I have high hopes that the TAME NATURE Plan will be adopted and implemented soon.

    TAME NATURE is a good idea We the People have way to much too lose if not adopted soon and it is a much better — than the past and current plans that have not and is NOT SANE or SOUND AT ALL —-NOW my thoughts and ideas are worthy of payment, please advise when we can come to terms. Dwight Baker PO BOX 7065 Eagle Pass Texas, 78852 tel 830-773-1077 Retired Oil and Gas Engineer with USA PATENTS high-pressure gates valves. Banking Universal Commercial Code number E67344656 My genetic roots go back to J.D. Rockefeller.

  4. Dwight Baker

    TAME NATURE
    To President Barack Obama and to whom it must concern at BP
    By Dwight Baker
    First sent May 16, 2010 today May 28, 2010
    Dbaker007@stx.rr.com

    SUBJECT; Build install Overshot for riser
    sketch of the over shot
    PURPOSE; Kill the well

    Should I have enough facts about the conditions where you are working, consider this: get a design ‘You have all the dimensions’ then get an overshot made to fit the top flange looking up where the riser was affixed.

    Get 5,000 feet of heavy weight 7” or better casing loaded on board for the overshot to be attached.

    The casing string should be arranged as this:
    1. On the bottom the overshot
    2. Next up 3 or more high pressure check valves to resist the flow of gas and fluids up to the rig installing.
    3. Next install 1 or more high-pressure pump out plugs to begin unloading the loss circulation material and heavy weight mud whatever that might be.
    4. When installing the casing fill the casing as needed with loss circulation material and heavy weight mud as best designed.
    5. Design a cut off charge to be used to separate the drill string from the riser with intent to have it fall away out of the overshot to be installed.
    picture of the BOP
    6. Use the roves to set the charge off at the best time after installation of overshot is underway. Should it not fall away as expected then a grapple can be used to pull out of the way.
    7. After setting the overshot around the top flange the rubber goods installed will compress.
    8. Install cementing plugs as needed and begin pumping as needed.
    9. I believe the entire amounts of fluids and solids will go quickly into all exit points at this time.
    10. The cement should be pumped down to the setting ring.
    11. Should it not go down then close in —- let set until cement has had time to dry.
    12. After that time —-to release the rig a charge could be set at the depth where cement is in the setting casing — the remainder can be pulled up and hopefully the nightmare will be ended.
    GOOD LUCK

    I have high hopes that President Obama his staff and all in the loop along with BP will adopt TAME NATURE
    As the final fix for the BP OIL DEBACLE
    Now, this is a good idea much better than the current plan that is NOT SANE or SOUND AT ALL —-My thoughts and ideas are worthy of payment, please advise when we can come to terms. Dwight Baker PO BOX 7065 Eagle Pass Texas, 78852 tel 830-773-1077 Retired Oil and Gas Engineer with USA PATENTS high-pressure gates valves. Banking Universal Commercial Code number E67344656 My genetic roots go back to J.D. Rockefeller.

  5. moslof

    The only problem with the nuclear option is how to quickly insert it deep enough so that a blast with adequate heat does not disrupt the surface strata. I am also hopeful that consideration is being given to this because it would result in a massive homogenous glass plug over the reservoir. There are hundreds of these glass formations already existing at test sites and their properties and effects are well known.

  6. Ishmael

    So when did Matthew Simmons become a petroleum engineer. He is a number crunching bean counter. The type that lead to the original problem to begin with.

    Turn the problem over to the government/military. Now that is a great idea. Anyone dealt with the government lately. Only the worse and the dimmest work for the government. How would anyone in the government or the military have any idea of evaluating the solutions to this problem. Well blow outs have happened for 80 years and they have all been solved. Yes this one is a mile down but it is not on fire. A little patience instead of knee jerk reactions are needed and people like Simmons should shut up.

    This is the kind of shoot from the hip, do something quick thinking which led to the dispenserate being used without for thought. Give me a freaking break. Put a nuke down the well bore.

    This guy is talking out his ahole.

  7. Scrap

    This is an aside, but the phrase “credit for being early to focus on peak oil” perpetuates the myth that peak oil has some basis in logical legitimacy, when it is pseudoscientific at best and apocalyptic fear-mongering at worst.

    The questionable premise to blame is that we are running out of easy oil. It is not that we are running out of easy oil, but that oil companies are running out of ACCESS to easy oil. Shills like Matt Simmons and TOD should set off your skepticism meter.

    1. Jed

      Not many beverly hillbillies these days. Could it be because the only place there is ‘easy oil access’ is a couple miles under water?

  8. mannoclay

    In fact, a couple of weeks ago the Media reported that Obama was consulting with some nuclear engineers regarding the “nuclear Option”. So this has been in the pipeline (bad pun, I know) for awhile.

    It scares the bejeebers out of me for 2 reasons: Could we compound the problem by contaminating the Gulf with radioactivity; could it simply cause the existing hole to widen or collapse and have the oil seep out in a multitude of smaller leaks that might prove impossible to contain?

    The above comment that it would turn the sand into glass is compelling. If it is true that the Ruskies have succeeded in making it work, then it becomes a legitimate solution.

    What I can’t understand is why they can’t insert a tube of a slightly smaller diameter than the existing riser far enough down it that it would shoot the oil to tankers on the surface. Obviously, this is too good to be true, or the simplest solution is beyond the ken of the experts.

    As far as the military goes, it doesn’t take a genius to figure out that they have the ability to commandeer every tanker they can find and send them to the gulf to drop tubes into the underwater oil “lakes” and start pumping the oil out of the Gulf. Yes, the military doesn’t have the expertise in oil blowouts, but it can avail itself of certified oil experts, scientist and engineers to guide it in its efforts.

  9. tew

    This guy is making absolutely no sense. He is clearly out of his depth here (pun intended).

    Let’s get the Army Core of Engineers in here. Ask the folks up in New Orleans about the quality work and transparency from them.

    This is annoying yet classic example of taking an expert in an adjacent field of knowledge and presenting that person as competent in a seemingly related but completely different sphere of expertise.

    What does prognosticating peak oil have to do with engineering a solution to an underwater oil leak? NOTHING.

    The fact that Simmons is willing to allow himself to be presented as a credible authority on this matter says much about his ego and his character and his trustworthiness. A trustworthy person with character and humility would insist that s/he is not an expert and would repeat that during the interview.

    1. mannoclay

      The problems we are faced with in the Gulf today were brewing since Reagan started deregulating the economy. We have let private companies rule since then and what have been the results: a catastrophic financial collapse and an unprecedented environmental disaster. We also see that BP was bribing the regulators with sex and money in order to be relieved of the regulatory oversight which was necessary to protect us from this sort of catastrophe.

      Granted the Army Corp. of Engineers was totally unprepared for Katrina. But they had been operating under a government dedicated to lax, or no, oversight. I am no fan of Obama, but we have to recognize that he inherited this mess. So, can the military be shaken up and support the oil industry’s efforts to at least do something positive and start cleaning up the Gulf while the “experts” at BP try to shut down the leak.

      You didn’t attempt to counter my argument that the military could provide assistance (not with their own vessels, but ones conscripted from the oil industry) to start the cleanup efforts immediately.

      What is your solution? Sticking your head in the sand (pun intended) is not acceptable.

      1. tew

        The military has assets including an organized labor force. So, yes, utilizing military assets would make sense if use could be made of those assets.

        Obama, as commander in chief, would have to balance priorities. Our soldiers are stretched pretty thin these days.

        It’s not clear that military assets would be of great use. But we will need a wide array of resources. We just don’t want to do more harm than good by throwing resources around without a plan and control structure.

        Your post above seems to contradict itself. You imply that more regulation is needed yet follow by saying that industry corrupted the regulators. This corruption is a form of regulatory capture and it’s been documented empirically and academically. So perhaps the existing regulations and regulatory framework is adequate but we’ve got a “who will police the police” problem. I’ll agree that the previous administration installed weak regulators – essentially anti-regulators – into many agencies and that weakened their ability to do their job in a fair and adequate manner.

        More importantly, the banal “regulation – deregulation” paradigm is false. Few believe in a complete elimination of all regulations and most think that a government body is best equipped to serve as a regulator. It’s a matter of degree and scope.

        We have allowed industry to externalize long tail risks, convincing weak pansy regulators that they’ve got everything under control. A competent regulator would have required the industry to have contingency plans in place and assets and training and modeling in place before this incident. Risk cannot be mitigated, but it can be managed.

        As for the current attempts to stop the oil flow, I know as much as you. My guess is that if some party anywhere had a better idea, the government would by now have pushed that agenda. If BP has not reached out to every possible source of expertise and help then they are derelict and negligent! I’ll neither give them the benefit of the doubt nor indulge in an orgy of vitriol aimed at BP. I will take the facts as they come, if and when they are made available to us.

  10. tew

    Matt wrote “Sorry, Yves, but this sort of post should be beneath you.”

    Yes Matt, it should.

    But the scary and sad fact is that even intelligent and worldly people like Yves panic in the face of these situations and are apt to fall for the claims of charlatans.

    The fact is that if we could get three of the most competent engineers in this domain to talk at length in a clear manner about the options and their different risks and unknowns, 99% of the people would switch the channel. It wouldn’t be tuned in to the ADD bling-bling lifestyle.

    1. Doug Terpstra

      Tew,

      It was Walt not Matt who made that vague charge, answered succinctly by john bougearel.

      At this point everything that BP has reported has proved utterly false and self-serving; everything Rube contraption and “junk shot” it has tried has failed miserably; the MSM are impotent scribes as usual; and our leaders—strike that—corrupt politicians, fiddle and diddle.

      In light of this and that this is now widely recognized as the worst oil spill in history (and quite likely largest man-made environmental disaster ever) makes your assigning panic to Yves for airing diverse opinion as hollow and baseless as Walt’s pointless poke.

      1. tew

        I do not agree that because BP has repeatedly failed and has repeatedly provided seemingly useless, misleading, or even false information means that we should run into the arms of those who will make the most speculative claims critical of BP.

        We should seek the opinions of competent experts not just those willing to throw around baseless claims.

        Maybe it makes some people feel better, but it doesn’t help shed light on the situation.

  11. Ishmael

    If the Russians have been using nukes to shut down blowouts then it demonstrates their lack of expertise. Personally, I find this statement rather unbelievable.

    All you have to do is look and see what Saddam did in Kuwait. He blew up all of their wells. They were on fire and spewing oil. Various blow out experts went in, put the fires out and shut down the well. No nukes were used.

    This is a blow out well problem. Yes it is 5,000 down in the water which is a challenge, but it will be solved.

    So, the President who is trained in words consulted some nuclear engineers about the problem. Yes, I have been hearing the nuclear option since day one. Everyone wants to be dramatic and run to nukes. Maybe who are DA president should be talking to are petroleum engineers and geologists as well as experts in blowouts. Obama is a man of bullshit. He (like most politicians) has nothing in his background to understand technical engineering problems of this nature.

    This is a very technical problem and it will not be solved quickly. Opinining on another source of an oil leak just because there was another plume seems to be the height of folly. Any well which was down to 30,000 feet would have enormous pressure on it and the amount of oil originally disclosed seemed low (even though it should be understood that at 30,000 feet not much if any liquids exist however it could change in state as it rises to the top still most production from these wells is gas). It always seemed to me that the oil would rise to the top of the well. At 5,000 feet down in the water it is very cold and the oil would form a thick substance which would probable float along the bottom and slowly rise to the top. Accordingly this secondary plume could easily be oil from the originally rupture that is a semisolid (at least until they used these dispenserates) that has been flowing along the bottom in a different direction.

  12. LJ

    The The Oil Drum is about the best place to get accurate info on the GOM oil spill. The Oil Drum has definitely relied on Matt Simmons’ work on Peak Oil, but his info on a larger spill was widely dismissed.

  13. Ishmael

    One other thing on the Russians using nukies, I doubt they have been doing this because I believe this would be a violation of the nuclear test bans. If you have banned detonating nukes for testing due to various concerns then I doubt they would be detonating nuclear weapons to cap blown out wells. That talks seems to be coming out of his backend.

  14. Ishmael

    The The Oil Drum is about the best place to get accurate info on the GOM oil spill. The Oil Drum has definitely relied on Matt Simmons’ work on Peak Oil, but his info on a larger spill was widely dismissed.

    A number cruncher can take various geological reserve data and come to some reasonable conclusions (I have done this in the past for companies).

    On the other hand, put such a person out with a geological team to find oil and he would be useless. Put him on a drilling platform to drill a well he would be useless. To have him lead the completion effort of a well and he would be useless. The list can go on for a long ways.

    A person should always understand the limit of their abilities. Simmons seems to have passed his in his above comments.

  15. Valissa

    It blows my mind that so-called rational people are considering a nuclear bomb solution to the oil leak. Perhaps if this had been done before and been successful the idea would have some credibility, though I would stillbe against it. At this point it’s a “drawing board” idea and I have no confidence that it can be translated to the real world without adding problems. Murphy’s Law applies here! Then you would have an ocean full of oil sludge AND radioactive materials.

  16. MichaelC

    Google Ixtoc, the 79 PEMEX well blowout for perspectve.
    It took 10 mos to stop the leak and it remains the largest oil disaster yet (and it was also in the Gulf). Surely there were lessons learned from that disaster. I’d prefer to see some coverage on that episode before nukes. It was finally plugged by drilling relief wells.

  17. Alan von Altendorf

    When Matt Simmons speaks, I listen. His theory of a subsurface blowout is plausible and explains the observable facts. If you know anything at all about the Macondo well history, then you know there is a “lost circulation” zone above the high-pressure reservoir formation. Oil could be migrating through that friable shallow section and then up a salt weld or fault to the seafloor. Simmons is correct about the geology, and likewise correct that shutting in the Macondo wellhead achieves nothing. You have to kill the well at the reservoir, which is the purpose of BP drilling relief wells to intersect Macondo. His suggestion of using supertankers echoes a similar operation in the Persian Gulf and will ultimately come into play in the current disaster until Federal orders sooner or later.

  18. Doc Holiday

    Nuke option may generate a tsunami and other real chaotic events, un-like nuked mutated shrimp that will join forces with the squids … never mind …

  19. john bougearel

    Anecdotally,

    On Wednesday May 26 I fished the estuaries of New Orleans. Our captain however informed us that we (and everyone else) were restricted from fishing south of the 29th and 30th parallel.

    We booked another fishing expedition for Sat May 29 with this captain. Unfortunately, this fishing trip had to be canceled because all commercial and recreational fishing had been restricted in New Orleans, supposedly more than 100 miles from the platform blowout.

  20. Jonathan Bernstein

    The consenus of informed opinion at theoildrum.com, is skeptical on this particular Simmons claim. Many of the site’s members include geologists and petroleum engineers.

    They do, however, respect Simmons highly, and they have done some terriffic work in confirming Simmons’s book Twilight in the Desert (see posts by Euan Mearns and Stuart Staniford Saudi Arabia’s Ghawar oil field in 2008). In that book Simmons showed how the Saudis and other OPEC members have overstated their “proven” reserves.

    Saudi conduct (as opposed to Saudi actions) continues to confirm the Simmons thesis, as I have noted, here: http://www.theinsightfultrader.com/key-saudi-oilfield-continues-to-show-signs-of-aging/. Saudi Aramco let a huge turnkey contract out to Halliburton to help maintain production levels at its crown jewel (and very mature)Ghawar oilfield last November. That they would seek this level of outside help, would seem to indicate concern about Ghawar’s productive capacity. Which is a big deal since Ghawar is the world’s most productive oil field.

    Simmons was also early, and prescient, about the scope of the current disaster, as quoted May 5 in the Washington Post (I’m having trouble with the link right now). So, while I don’t agree with him all the time, he most certainly is worth listening to.

  21. Doctor Stock

    Listening right now to the latest update… not surprised this continues to drag on… after all, like most bad news, it was minimized from the beginning. Unfortunately, all the bad news will eventually rise to the surface, literally in this case!

  22. Ishmael

    The surprising thing to me is there are a group of people in this world who throw around using nuclear weapons like it is nothing. We need to nuke the Iranian reactors. We need to nuke a well in the Gulf. I guess enough time has passed and people have watched enough gore on the movie screen that they just do not think twice about it.

    This type of thinking will one day lead to two nations nuking each other and then it will be really ugly.

  23. DWIGHT BAKER

    NOT UP TO US TO BLAME IT IS UP TO US TO:
    TAME NATURE PLAN the way to stop the oil flow.

    From the time that Deep Horizon started to burn until it hit the ocean floor about 40 hours elapsed.

    The Thunder Horse location owned by BP is flowing about one million barrels of oil per day The Deep Horizon is in the same age of oil rock looks as it is on an anticline dome in the Wilcox.

    Thus, during the burn time then to rest on the seabed I estimate that One million five hundred thousand barrels of oil escaped through the piping up through the rig floor.

    BP drilling engineer testified last night on CSPAN that no cement was placed between the 7” casing and the production zone. Thus a total open virgin formation flow rate was coming to the surface in excess of 20,000 pounds per square inch.

    Thus the flumes that have been seen may be another type of petroleum one that has been in high heat such as when the rig was standing and burning. THUS TAR might be the residue. All the high carbons might have been burned away.

    Civil courts will never get satisfactory resolutions Criminal courts will never convict people, Declaration of War against BP would be the cure, all the things needed to proceed would be at We the People Disposal.

    Declaration of War
    By Dwight Baker
    May 24, 2010
    Dbaker007@stx.rr.com

    Eagles Eye View Aiming at Issues for We the People Advocates

    Congress has the responsibility to Declare War. In the past several wars Bush did so without Congress approval or consent, he called those acts of violence some thing other.

    Now, We the People set adrift without leadership that has yet to come forward in acts strong enough to propose that War be Declared against the multinational Corporate Criminal BP. Maybe this will jog some minds to do so.
    We the People have the right and the moral responsibility to demand that our Congress and Senate get off their duff and do the job we elected them to do. Saying, who in America believes all the lies and postponements that have been allowed to be input as Truth by our Executive Branch for the benefit to protect BP?

    Our Federal Court systems are a part of British rule, We will never get a fair shake in any Federal Court system, Yet we stand a far better chance in a Military Tribunal.

    TAME NATURE —the plan #2
    To President Barack Obama and to whom it must concern at BP
    By Dwight Baker
    First sent May 16, 2010 today May 28, 2010
    Dbaker007@stx.rr.com

    SUBJECT; Build install Overshot for riser
    sketch of the over shot
    PURPOSE; Kill the well

    Should I have enough facts about the conditions where you are working, consider this: get a design ‘You have all the dimensions’ then get an overshot made to fit the top flange looking up where the riser was affixed.
    TAME NATURE PLAN #3
    Get 5,000 feet of heavy weight 7” or better casing loaded on board for the overshot to be attached.

    The casing string should be arranged as this:
    1. On the bottom the overshot
    2. Next up 3 or more high pressure check valves to resist the flow of gas and fluids up to the rig installing.
    3. Next install 1 or more high-pressure pump out plugs to begin unloading the loss circulation material and heavy weight mud whatever that might be.
    4. When installing the casing fill the casing as needed with loss circulation material and heavy weight mud as best designed.
    5. Design a cut off charge to be used to separate the drill string from the riser with intent to have it fall away out of the overshot to be installed.
    picture of the BOP
    6. Use the roves to set the charge off at the best time after installation of overshot is underway. Should it not fall away as expected then a grapple can be used to pull out of the way.
    7. After setting the overshot around the top flange the rubber goods installed will compress.
    8. Install cementing plugs as needed and begin pumping as needed.
    9. I believe the entire amounts of fluids and solids will go quickly into all exit points at this time.
    10. The cement should be pumped down to the setting ring.
    11. Should it not go down then close in —- let set until cement has had time to dry.
    12. After that time —-to release the rig a charge could be set at the depth where cement is in the setting casing — the remainder can be pulled up and hopefully the nightmare will be ended.
    GOOD LUCK
    I have high hopes that President Obama his staff and all in the loop along with BP will adopt TAME NATURE
    As the final fix for the BP OIL DEBACLE
    Now, this is a good idea much better than the current plan that is NOT SANE or SOUND AT ALL —-My thoughts and ideas are worthy of payment, please advise when we can come to terms. Dwight Baker PO BOX 7065 Eagle Pass Texas, 78852 tel 830-773-1077 Oil and Gas Engineer with USA PATENTS high-pressure gates valves. Banking Universal Commercial Code number E67344656 My genetic roots go back to J.D. Rockefeller.

    Folks We all are Still —– We the People,

    Time to lay down petty silly things and focus on the welfare of our communed held wealth in our Nation our People First that are suffering again then our Gulf just one of our Bread Baskets that feed us, the next all the pain suffering eleven men dead all their families and their lost hopes and dreams that got burned up that dreadful night.

    So please for civil sanity lay down the spears and arrows and tend to the real business of doing things that will move this long arduous process along.

    Dwight Baker

  24. wunsacon

    >> While Simmons does deserve credit for being early to focus on peak oil, he was notably wrong in 2008.

    Simmons was wrong about … *what*? About $200/oil? Only nominally! In real terms or in terms relative to most everything else, he’s right.

    House prices are down 30-50% despite Herculean (or Sisyphean, if you prefer) efforts by governments to support real estate prices by promoting demand and constricting supply. Oil is down only 50%. In my book, Matt continues to be right.

    Reminds me of the OLPC bashers saying “Negroponte failed to produce a $100 laptop”. Hey, gold more than tripled. Negroponte’s laptop price only doubled. Cut the humanitarian a freaking break.

    To all Simmons / PO critics, I recommend you borrow Twilight in the Desert from the library or order it 2nd-hand online.

    1. Doug Terpstra

      Excellent comments, thanks. Mayber one reason oil is not at stratospherec prices (briefly) at present despite speculation, is demand destruction due to the finanical crisis—slowing production, transportation, commuting, etc.

  25. Pat Donnelly

    Usin nukes or heavy explosives is contra-indicated, given the Aceh experience. Clathrates and escaped petroleum may well ignite, causing a massive tsunami, even if a low yield device is employed. Loss of life will reduce government expenditure, unless there is a widespread evacuation, thereby fulfilling the web bots on this!

  26. DWIGHT BAKER

    MY TAKE ON DISASTROUS MISTAKES 1-2
    THAT EVERYONE HAS FOR THE ASKING

    Who Runs America’s Response to the Oil Blowout?
    By Dwight Baker Response to Truthdig article by William Pfaff.
    June 2, 2010
    Dbaker007@stx.r.com

    The Public Relations firms! BP executives are much like the media propaganda master spinning out tales on TV they get a script and read it.
    But behind the scenes are the multitudes of high paid lawyers using the SEE-SAW-YAW of LAW in legal jargon to say a lot but not much of anything.
    To go to the bottom line of who, what and why took about 400 hours but finally got there then put out a detailed plan what we as the People must force President Obama to make BP do.

    The TAME NATURE Overshot Plan was first sent to BP May 13,2010
    By Dwight Baker
    June 1, 2010
    Dbaker007@stx.rr.com

    June 1, 2010 noting that BP is trying to steal my basic ideas. Why “ That is a felons way”!

    Yet, I envisioned the cure and passed it along to BP many days ago and still hold to the basic premise that We the People must demand President Obama to demand BP to Tame Nature.

    I have decided to publish the CURE for all to see.

    Now, for those who care to and must know the problems that created the blow out and the cure —- Please contact me for my 2500 word treaties with large technical drawings including technical ecological social and political conclusions built around facts. The file size is 1.01 MB

    For all you living on the coast Please send and e-mail to me to get this full of facts file.

    Contact Dwight Baker at dbaker007@stx.rr.com and the file will be sent.

    Horizon Support Team

    Dear Dwight Baker,
    Thank you so much for taking the time to think about and submit your proposed solution regarding the Horizon incident. Your submission has been reviewed for its technical merits. A similar approach has already been considered or planned for possible implementation. All of us on the Horizon Support Team appreciate your thoughts and efforts.

    Sincerely yours,

    The following inquiry was submitted to Deepwater Horizon Response on
    05/27/10 07:13 (312287):
    From: Joint Information Center
    Date: 06/01/10 14:25

    Dear Mr. Baker,

    Thank you for your comments.

    I understand your exasperation and I deeply regret the fear and
    disruption this is causing.

    I assure you that all the organization organizations involved in the
    Unified Command are doing everything possible to contain the oil and
    minimize environmental impacts.

    We know we will be judged by the success we have in dealing with this
    incident and we are determined to succeed for everyone’s sake – and, of
    course, for the sake of the environment.

    BP will work hard to clean up the effects of this spill and regain your
    trust. BP is taking full responsibility for the spill and will clean
    it up, and where people have legitimate claims for damages BP will
    honor them.

    Regards,

    Joint Information Center
    Deepwater Horizon Response

    In conclusion: I did not send Deepwater Horizon Response the plan, BP lied about that. I refused to fill out the paper work they requested and glad I did. I instead sent my plan to BP Investors Relations in England.
    One of my oil and gas colleagues did fill out the form then realized in doing his ideas etc. were freebees for BP to use.
    Now the reason that BP executives are not willing to communicate directly will the blow out well is as following.

    MY TAKE ON DISASTROUS MISTAKES 2-2
    BP unleashed nature
    High pressures over 21,600 PSI broke loose as the drilling mud and water whipped and ripped around shredding the Deep Horizon drill ship in little pieces. Eleven good men met their demise. My God Forbids!
    By Dwight Baker
    June 1, 2010
    Dbaker007@stx.rr.com

    Eagles Eye View Aiming at Issues for We the People Advocates

    BP big bosses do not want to face those kinds of pressure again. Yes they made the final and fatal mistake of not following Oil and Gas old time techniques of finishing off a well as should be done.

    Now they run like cowards afraid to face the problems that they caused that fatal day. Mr. Hayward is a coward in every way and he is a liar to top all that off, but one thing he has proved while being at the helm of BP he knows how to cut budgets [jobs] and that improves the bottom line. Most ‘Bean Counters’ at the helm do not know one thing about what the Corporations they run do.

    The reason BP at this time is shying away from using the TAME NATURE overshot plan there might be a slight element of risk in it, yet most oil field engineers have approved it — We all must be about saving our People our Gulf and our planet.

    The zone that BP drilled into has more pressure in it than 21,600 PSI. The Sea Floor pressure where the BOP stands is 21,600-PSI Therefore the flowing pressure that we have seen vaguely is more than that, BP knows the exact pressures but they ‘Ain’t’ telling. That is a felon’s way of doing business in the USA. Remember the felon con artist in the Wall Street Heist just like yesterday?

    No one in oil and gas that has an ear for their fellow man believes that they can educate the American People in all aspects of what went wrong that fatal day in a twinkling of an eye.

    The video’s following proves the point that high pressure can destroy what gets in its way. And that my friend is the fear that Mr. Hayward is not about to face, even though our people our Gulf and our planet is in peril and is in its dying days.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ycvlXhYjeLc&feature=related

  27. دار التميمي حمد

    The video’s following proves the point that high pressure can destroy what gets in its way. And that my friend is the fear that Mr. Hayward is not about to face, even though our people our Gulf and our planet is in peril and is in its dying days.

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