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FrankenStorm Watch and Possible Weather Related Service Changes (Updated)

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Given that the approaching storm has become the event that it eating news coverage, at least if you live in the Eastern US, I thought readers might want to discuss what they are seeing locally and how it tracks with the weather predictions. At least here in Manhattan, conditions outside have been consistently milder than what Weather.com has been predicting (not their weather porn on TV, but their hour-by-hour forecast, which shows, among other things, expected wind speeds and precipitation levels). The wind so far is a lot less than the forecast level (which was for 19 MPH now-ish, with higher-speed gusts; I was just out and the air was close to still, with only occasional gusts perhaps up to the 20 MPH). But the real damage from the storm isn’t to come from the wind, but the storm surge. Even the reports from sites that don’t benefit from weather sensationalism are pretty grim. For instance, this summary comes from Wunderground (hat tip Lambert):

Published: 9:58 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Hurricane Sandy has changed little in intensity today, and remains a very large, powerful hurricane. Sandy is going to cause billions of dollars in damage Monday and Tuesday in the Eastern U.S. due to storm surge, high winds, and heavy rains. Sandy is of near record-size, with tropical storm-force winds extending up to 520 miles from its center, covering an area larger than a Texas-and-a-half. This afternoon, Sandy brought winds gusting to 64 mph at Cape Hatteras, NC, 60 mph at Kitty Hawk, NC, and 60 mph at Cape Henry, VA. Sandy’s rain is onshore from North Carolina to New Jersey and Pennsylvania. Jacksonville, NC and Suffolk, NC have recorded 2 inches of rain today, Greenville, NC has seen 1.6 inches, and Ahoskie, NC has seen 1.5 inches.

With peak impact still 24 to 36 hours away, water levels are already 2 – 4 feet above normal from Virginia to New York. At 4 pm EDT, Lewes, Delaware was at 3.3 feet above normal, Cape May, New Jersey was at 3.1 feet above normal, Wachapreague, Virginia was at 3.6 feet above normal, and Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel station was at 3.6 feet above normal, up more than half a foot since 10:30am. The National Weather Service in Upton, New York mentioned today that the predicted maximum water level of 11.7 feet at The Battery in New York City, which is expected to occur at 8:13pm ET on Monday, would break the record of 10.5 feet which was set on September 15, 1960 in Hurricane Donna.

In a poignant, powerful Public Information Statement this afternoon, the National Weather Service in New Jersey is begging that people heed warnings, and evacuate if they are asked to. They write, “If you are reluctant [to evacuate], think about your loved ones, think about the emergency responders who will be unable to reach you when you make the panicked phone call to be rescued, think about the rescue/recovery teams who will rescue you if you are injured or recover your remains if you do not survive.”

For real junkies, one place to look (hat tip Richard Smith) is Eric Holthaus (WSJweather) on Twitter. There’s some amazing stuff here, like FEMA telling people in high rises to be prepared to take shelter below the 10th floor. Huh? This isn’t a storm where the wind speeds are the risk factor.

In Manhattan, the MTA is implementing a system-wide shutdown of the subway system and Metro North starting at 7 PM. Most of the natives seem perplexed and disgruntled, but are also cleaning out the local grocery stores (although the manager of one of the local chains says it will be open tomorrow). Many stores closed between 5 and 6 PM, and it’s interesting to see who is hard core and staying open (the afore-said grocery store, a local drug store chain, many of the small food stores, particularly the ones near the local hospital, pretty much every news stand I’ve walked past, and the small convenience stores). A lot of who plans on opening up is a function of whether it has enough staff that can get in and want to work. For instance, my gym has e-mailed me saying it will open tomorrow but no assurance as to how long it will stay open (remember, in NYC, people live in small apartments, so we are more integrated into our local little communities of local vendors and service providers than people in less dense communities).

Of course, here a big storm surge means flooding of the subway, and an unclear recovery time. What are the risks to you and in your area?

Yours truly will be in the saddle no matter what during our very much hyped weather event, but I might not have a horse to ride some of this week. The most extreme scenario is a power outage in Manhattan (I was in Oz during the last one; the locals who lived in low rise buildings tell me they had a great time, everyone went out on the stoops, hung out with their neighbors and drank, but with lots of rain, that won’t be a great option this time). What is more likely is generally kludgey internet service. That happened during the last big storm, Irene, and this one looks like it going to hit more of the East Coast harder. Kludgey internet makes it really hard to surf the web and can make it hard/impossible to post. Richard Smith is standing at ready in England, and Lambert (in Maine) might be able to pitch in if need be.

Most important, I hope all of you who are in the Eastern part of the US are reasonably prepared and get through this safely and with minimal damage. Let us know how things look from where you are.’

Update 3:30 AM, 10/29: As of this hour, this Hurricane That Will Eat New York City is nowhere to be found. Weather.com’s hour by hour forecast has consistently been calling for showers and winds of 19 MPH with gusts higher from 5-6 PM yesterday onward (obviously getting worse later, my dim recollection is the winds were expected to notch up to the 22-24 MPH range in the middle of the night, with ongoing rain).

I’ve been listening and when I get up to pad around, looking out the window. Every time I gaze out, I can’t see ANY leaves on the trees moving. This isn’t lower than expected winds, this is bloomin’ still. Dry as a bone too. Weatherporn.com is still saying that the winds will by 24 MPH in a half hour. So I suppose I suppose I should believe them rather than my lyin’ eyes.

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61 comments

  1. RDP

    Yves, I think the warning about being above the 10th floor in a high rise has more to do with the high winds carrying debris and sending it crashing through windows rather than the winds themselves. I saw downtown Miami in person after Wilma in 2005. While that was a Cat 3 when it made landfall in the US, all of the windows on the upper floors of the Miami Hilton were shattered and blown out, and the windows in the surrounding buildings took a hit too. That said, please stay safe.

    1. Myshkin

      Perched on the 12th floor of DC apartment building, I often find myself factoring windspeed vs. psf window ratings. I suspect because of Sandy’s NW wind direction, the glass deflection in our windows has not been as alarming as in past storms.

      One quickly backs away from a window when the glass deflection is significant. Amazing the effect of a mere 1/16th inch flex, I commence seriously pondering the wisdom of a retreat into the building’s interior hallways. Units in other parts of the building, where the wind is typically more pronounced, have structural problems with frames loosening.
      I do hate the media’s storm hype, so far a lot of rain here in DC, the worst is predicted this evening around nightfall, I’m hoping the wind direction remains favorable. Despite the view, not sure I’d ever live in an upper floor apartment again.

  2. Middle Seaman

    Metro DC dragged behind the curve all day. Rain expected Sunday late evening has arrived 24 hours late. Weak wind made walking around pleasant.

    DC is prune to wide power outages. Our power companies repeatedly wave their middle finger in our faces. Last storm, some people went through cave life for more than a week.

    Early voting in Maryland suspended Monday.

    Good luck to everyone.

    1. Jim Tarrant

      Believe it or not, the DC Metro system (WMATA) is the second largest in the country by number of users. Quite a lot of it is also mostly above ground because it is designed to move suburban commuters in and out of the city, though that is slowly less becoming the case (but only marginally). The result is that the system is very vulnerable to weather-related interruptions. So, the entire rail system is shut down tomorrow until further notice. The Federal Govt. has also been shut down.

  3. rjs

    i havent fixed the september storm damage yet; we’ve had over 2 inches of rain since friday (NE ohio) & i’m catching it in coffee cans in the attic…

  9. Ned Ludd

    According to Eric Holthaus’s comments on WeatherBrains, if the minimum pressure at landfall stays below 960mb, Sandy will have a severe impact (I forget if he was talking about storm surge or rainfall). If it is above 970mb, the impact of the storm will be mild. Right now, according to the recon data, the minimum pressure is at 950mb.

    Also from the WeatherBrains discussion:

    • Flight information is available at NYC Aviation.
    • A layered map is available at imap.tv (click on the upper right “Layers” vertical tab to customize).

  10. ltr

    Here in Hewlett, Long Island and there are a few gusts now and then but quite calm overall and no rain. I do not like being frightened by the sensational approach to weather we take. Also, was startled to find a supermarket packed even on Thursday and water seemed to be the biggest seller of all.

  11. ltr

    I hate the media name given to the storm, really I do not like being frightened. I am prepared and prefer to be allowed to think I can survive.

      1. Bev

        Lambert, much better safe and prepared, than sorry with no excuse. So, just in case:

        http://markcrispinmiller.com/2012/10/gov-cuomo-shut-down-indian-point/

        Gov. Cuomo, SHUT DOWN INDIAN POINT!

        From Mitchel Cohen:

        RED ALERT! CALL TO DEMAND SHUTDOWN OF INDIAN POINT NUCLEAR POWER POINT, NOW!

        NY Governor Andrew Cuomo
        (518) 474-8390

        Westchester County government
        (914) 864-5450

        Nuclear Regulatory Commission hotline
        (301) 816-5100

        They’ve shut the subways. They’ve shut the schools. They’ve shut the parks, tunnels and shortly the bridges. But the nuclear power generators at Indian Point, just 26 miles north of New York City? Those they’re keeping open.

        This is insane!

        Should the waters of the Hudson flood into the plant, that will be an utter disaster. Should any of the spent fuel rods stored in pools at Indian Point be washed into the Hudson, we can kiss New York City goodbye. (How’s that for an early morning TV show ­ “Goodbye, New York”?)

        There are 16 nuclear power plants in the path of hurricane Sandy, as it whips its way back from the Atlantic (at noon today) and up the coast.

        Please call the following numbers immediately, and tell them to shut down the Indian Point nuclear power plant:

        NY Governor Andrew Cuomo
        (518) 474-8390

        Westchester County government
        (914) 864-5450

        Nuclear Regulatory Commission hotline
        (301) 816-5100

        It’s really that serious. And this much, at least, we can do right now! Thank you!

    2. Flying Kiwi

      Hurricanes are not named by the media. Hurricane names are chosen from a list selected by the World Meteorological Organization. The Atlantic is assigned six lists of names, with one list used each year. Every sixth year, the first list begins again. Each name on the list starts with a different letter and the name of the first hurricane of the season starts with the letter A, the next starts with the letter B, and so on. The letters “Q”, “U”, “X”, “Y” and “Z”, however, are not used.

      Often when an unusually destructive hurricane hits, that hurricane’s name is retired and never used again. Since 1954, forty names have been retired.

      http://kids.earth.nasa.gov/archive/hurricane/names.html

      1. Valissa

        I think ltr was referring to the term “Frankenstorm” which the media has been using as an alternate name to Sandy.

  12. Valissa

    The latest Boston & MA news… Deval Patrick “encouraged” all schools and colleges to shut down for the day and for non-essential workers to stay home. Although all commuter boat services will be closed for tomorrow, the MBTA will run on the normal schedule until officials determine they need to slow or shut down. Likewise Logan Airport is planning on remaining open, but may decide to close some time tomorrow if conditions warrant.

    We are only supposed to get 2-4″ of rain and in general a lot less rain than Irene, but probably more wind. The coast is on alert for storm surge.

    The eye of the storm wraps around MA http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/atlantic/sandy-2012 AND http://www2.tbo.com/hurricane-guide/ so it appears that the far eastern and far western parts of state will get the worst of the storm. Given this info Deval seemed to me to jump in rather early on declaring a state of emergency, but what do I know.

    When I went to the grocery store (in an inner suburb of Boston) this afternoon it was busy but not mobbed, and there was plenty of parking. Didn’t see people stocking up on water, and I didn’t get any extra either, just made sure I had a couple of days worth of meals.

    I also find the hurricane hype and blatant fear mongering annoying. But, hey, it is 2012 after all!

  13. JohnL

    No hurricane imminent here in WA, but it’s raining anyway. My old ‘hood in Monmouth County, NJ and my favorite boardwalk run from Spring Lake to Asbury Park are in the bulls eye. Long Beach Blvd in LBI is flooded already.

  14. psychohistorian

    Just some steady boring rain in Oregon.

    You all be safe back East and think about how this will spin the election results…..do the Supremes get to call it again?

  16. Paul Tioxon

    It’s always sunny in Philadelphia, is just not a cable show. Since the storm seems to have a bulls eye for what we like to call “downashore”, the local news always covers Jersey weather because it is where so many Philly area residents spend June/July/August and even retire there. Which leads me to the political implications of the last great Hurricane to hit the Jersey shore and travel West to our Sunny City by the Delaware.

    http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2012/03/50_years_later_nj_remembers_wh.html

    When the ocean met the bay 1962, Long Island NJ was cut into pieces, a lot under water, never to return. Harvey Cedars, a small area out towards the Barneget Lighthouse, was hit especially hard. One particular businessman, Max Weiner, suffered tremendous financial loss as a result of his real estate holdings, now, no longer a part of the surface of the Earth. As Max phoned around to follow up in the aftermath of the natural disaster, he found himself shit out of luck. As he recounted to local papers, his money, his connections, his friends, who turned out to be business associates, no longer associated with him, since he no longer had a business.

    And turning to the government, and using his education and business skills, he made it back up on his feet. But in the process, what he discovered was that without his network of money making deals, contracts etc, there was no social obligation to help him out to his previous status, his previous income, his previous life. And the government had not much in the way of protection for him either. The business skills and acumen he had, allowed him to move on. But what about others, less educated, less knowledgeable about standing up for yourself in front of a government bureaucracy that could provide some relief, but only if you were able to navigate that system? What about those less well off than him to begin with? They did not stand much, if any chance.

    He started a local institution called CEPA, Consumer Education and Protection Association.
    Max Weiner agitated and protested on the streets with people sick and tire of being sick and tired. The utility company rip offs, insurance company non payment of rightful claims, the slum lords who would NEVER turn on the heat. The look the other way bureaucrats who were supposed to be staring down the dead beat con artists business swindlers. Max took on all comers, fought City Hall and won. His protege, Lance Haver followed in his foot steps and the mayor installed him as the head of the city’s office of Consumer Affairs.

    And, here is the crowning achievement for all of you scoffers of the small potato victories: Lance was highly skeptical of a Texas company that would take over PECo, Philadelphia Electric Co, and offer electricity too cheap for words via sophisticated free market trading platforms. Along with a local, state senator, ENRON was kept out of Pennsylvania, to their credit. Which all started when Max Weiner was laid low by one the worst storms ever in the Northeastern USA.

  17. LifelongLib

    Just went through a tsunami scare here in Hawaii that turned out to be nothing much, but my son, sister-in-law, and nephew live on the east coast so I’ll be watching. Good luck to you all.

  18. ltr

    Well, it is 5:24 AM and in Hewlett, Long Island there is a moderate breeze with moderate gusts of wind every 4 minutes or so and there has been no rain. Since I am afraid of watching the weather reports I have not done so this morning, but so far so “good” here.

    The headlines in the New York Times are too frightening for me to read the storm stories.

    1. Yves Smith Post author

      Yes, I like to consider myself blase about bad weather, having spent a few years in Escanaba, Michigan, where 20 inch plus blizzards and subzero weather weren’t uncommon. But you can’t avoid the headlines if you newssurf, and both Lambert and I are feeling stressed just via causal encounters with the weather stories.

      1. ltr

        Thank you, I needed that and I would guess others do as well. I know from the calls I have gotten that my neighbors have been quite concerned.

  19. craazyman

    It looks like Gracie Mansion is still there as of 6:30 a.m. Although it’s too dark to see that far clearly, the overall mass of shadows suggests it has survived, so far. I can’t hear any evidence of wind and waves beating into the shards of wood and cement where a structure used to be. I can’t hear anything, except an occasion car drive by.

    If not for the streetlights I couldn’t have made my way to the deli without a flashlight. Miraculously the deli was open, lit up like a lighthouse in the black gloom, a comforting sight for a harrowed and hungry traveller after a two block walk. The wind gusted occasionally — a teasing breath of some demon, waiting on its own terms to choose a time to wail a wind that blows like a scream from hell — and I saw a leaf move a few feet, scratching across the sidewalk like a bony hand reaching out to grab your soul.

    What will the day bring? What will nature do to us? Will our bodies be blown like autumn leaves off a tree, this way and that, to some final resting place? Or whipped, as dead-eyed bloated corpses, into a churning and grey sea? These questions weigh answerless on a mind that cannot rest.

    For now, the pancakes taste pretty good, like usual, and the sips of coffee offer a momentary distraction from the relentless gnawing fear.

    It could be a day of laying around doing nothing and wasting time. That doesn’t sound too bad, actually. It’s what I normally do. And if the street is underwater and empty cars are floating by, it’ll be too late for any action to matter. Another excuse to lay around and do nothing. There’s a pattern here, I admit.

    1. Bert_S

      Yesterday it was 80F, sunny, no wind and real nice laying by the pool. At 5:00AM this morning it’s mostly dark.

      Keeping an eye on the situation, however.

      1. craazyman

        be careful Bert.

        If it gets to 2 or 3 o’clock and you’re groggy there in the lounge chair tanning by the pool, don’t go for another beer or you might fall asleep and get a sunburn.

        don’t be a hero.

        get inside where there’s some AC. Or at least under an umbrella. You can always have another beer in the shade :)

        1. Bert_S

          Good advice, craazy. Sunburn is a bitch!

          As it turns out, ran out of beer so today is Brew Day! At the moment I’m cooking up a batch of Dunkleweizen. New recipe, smells yummy. Won’t be done for another 5 weeks unfortunately, so I may have to make do with a little store bought stuff in the mean time.

          Did you notice this gave them an excuse to close the markets during this earnings season? Lots of misses today and tomorrow, I’ll bet. Maybe even a special APPL announcement!

    2. aletheia33

      as a vermont resident (blessedly, on high ground) and having witnessed up close what irene did to our state last fall, i no longer find it interesting to complain or joke about overhype of big storms. a weather aficionado friend in boston, who has a summer place north of here, has reassured me (explaining the differences from irene) that sandy is highly unlikely to have anything like the “freak” flash flood effect here again that last year destroyed so many people’s livelihoods, from which our economy has yet to recover (national depression aside). we’re a small state with high poverty, very few farms and factories left, and dependent on tourism–a precarious economy in the best of times.

      true, the magnitude of what happened here took everyone by surprise, but had we not been warned and prepared for a major emergency, the consequences would have been far worse.

      my weather friend had just come from a (coincidental with sandy) local weather conference in boston. he told me, to my surprise, that most of the meteorologists on the media actually are very smart and very skilled at their science.

      i am guessing that while the hype does serve to draw viewers, there is a real concern about protecting lives and limbs and the various, substantial benefits of overpreparing and the “better safe than sorry” approach. i’m no fan of how governments handle disasters, and the way they embargo information when they should not is historically proven very dangerous. that said, it’s true that too many idiotic or just stubborn ones end up in trouble or dead and seriously burdening the system because they laugh off predictions and advisories or defy evacuation orders. i saw a bit of this here the day before irene–people were saying “oh, they always exaggerate, this is going to be a big nothing.” 2 days later, it was a huge something.

      i’m not defending the overdramatizing of it all. also i don’t have a television, and can’t imagine depending on one for information or anything else. it seems to be an anxiety-generating machine–why would you want one of those in your house? the internet works fine for the substantive information i need and for feeding my (admitted) weather fascination. and local officials try really hard to keep everyone informed about what’s coming and how to prepare.

      i simply want to mention that i find that having seen one tropical storm/flood scenario up close, i’ll never, myself, joke about or downplay this stuff again. what happened here broke many hearts. vermont has brutal weather, blizzards, heavy, deep snowfalls, way subfreezing temps, and the like. when it’s ongoing, one copes just fine. the unusual event should not be compared to that.

      1. sleepy

        Sometimes unfortunately the “hype” is all too real. Here is the hurricane advisory on Katrina the day before it hit the Gulf Coast (sorry for the caps, but it was so in the original):

        URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
        NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
        1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

        DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED

        HURRICANE KATRINA
        A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
        STRENGTH…RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.

        MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS…PERHAPS LONGER. AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL…LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

        THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL. PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE…INCLUDING SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

        HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY…A FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

        AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD…AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS…PETS…AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

        POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS…AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

        THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING…BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE KILLED.

        AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE…OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE…ARE CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

        ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET…DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE!

  20. Bill M

    8:00 am Monday

    As you’ve seen, first rain and bigger winds on the East River (Roosevelt Island).

    Closing of Metro at 7:00 last night (together with C Hall cancelling the Tokyo String Quartet) was overkill.

    Time for a walk…

  21. ltr

    Now it is 8:82 and I finally was able to sleep, which means the was no fierce wind or rain to keep me awake or to waken me, and while there is a light rain and a little wind all is well in Hewlett, Long Island at this time.

  22. ltr

    That should have been 8:42 not 8:82 but it is nonetheless calm here and I willnow risk taking a shower.

  23. gatopeich

    With crossed fingers, looks like yet another case of “big ado about nothing”.

    Can’t help giving this “breaking news” the same credibility as anything else in mass media. “Hey guys, look at the latest red herring while the rich steal the very floor you are standing on!”

  25. gozounlimited

    Geoengineered storms like Sandy are more difficult to analyze and easier to hype…either way you end up the victim. see here: Hurricane SANDY 10-28 Intellicast Geoengineering Update …. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eW4y-yBMahw

    And here: Hurricane Sandy Geoengineering Update 10-27 and Law Suit … http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OjSWGCL8BJo

    And here:Stop Geoengineering & Stop Hurricane Sandy ~ Michael Murphy explains … http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_pLa1w9W7kM

    1. indices

      Was this done by the Chinese in response to the NY Times article about Wen Jiabao’s family’s billions? Blowing moderately hard in southern CT (15 miles inland) at 12:53 PM, and still waiting for the storm surge in Long Island Sound and potential catastrophic disaster for coastal Connecticut. Bridgeport has shut down the United Illuminating Company’s power substation near the harbor…

  26. ltr

    Hewlett, Long Island at 11:30 AM. All is well, a little wind and a few moderate gusts and little rain so far. I am showered and fed and much relieved and hopeful.

  27. gozounlimited

    You might want to use the last of your electricity to watch …. The Perfect HAARP Storm – Sandy … http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u1JRTfDGQEU

    Based on HAARP activity …. the earthquake that hit British Columbia was really meant for California. How perfect is that? 7.7 earthquake in Cali and the perfect storm over D.C. and NYC a week before elections and the realization that the top seven TBF banks are insolvent. Falling off the fiscal cliff pails to billions of dollars worth of death and damage……..

  28. ltr

    Now the time is 1:10 PM and all is well in Hewlett, Long Island. Moderate wind, moderate gusts about every 5 minutes and lightish rain.

  29. ltr

    Also, I do not read scare stories. I am home reading Murasaki “Genji” and loving it and finally relaxing and will hopefulloy not be storm frightened again.

  31. Valissa

    Bummer, large tree branch fell onto the front edge of our house (knocking down the front gutter and front trim of the subroof) and into the driveway (fortunately exactly between our two cars, maybe some minor front bumper damage). It has brought down a bunch of electrical wiring which is hanging all around the front of the house and bunched up over our cars in the driveway but we still have power. When I called NSTAR I did not have to wait to talk to a human (though getting through the voice recognition systems was a pain in the ass), and someone stopped by to evaluate about 10-15 minutes later. They put up some yellow tape around the dangling wires area and told me a crew will be dispatched to take care of it.

    Since my husband uses that front room as an office and is working at home today, he decided to move all his computers to another room.

    I took lots of photos for the insurance company. Our house was recently painted, the crew just finished 6 days ago. Had a great contractor who I will be calling to repair whatever damage we end up with.

    NSTAR repair crew has just arrived, gotta go.

      1. Valissa

        Thanks! They just shut our electricity off, said it would be about an hour. We were really LUCKY that only a couple pieces of trim and gutter were damaged. And since it’s hard to find good contractors I feel fortunate there too. Will have to call the tree timmer folks later this week. The tree is a HUGE silver maple almost 100 years old and almost 100 feet tall. It’s the biggest tree by far for many blocks and we get it trimmed/pruned ~ every 2 years. It’s due now for that.

        1. Valissa

          The dangerous hanging wires have been removed, and then that crew left after having me back one of the cars out of the driveway so that the next two crews would work. The big tree limb that fell needs to be moved next, probably by the DPW, and then NSTAR will send out a smaller repair truck, that can fit in our driveway, to fix the line where it enters the house.

          In the meantime I am on battery power and air card. Fangorn* has dropped a few more tiny branches (the size that is typical with a nor’easter) but otherwise seems to be holding up.

          *Fangorn was the Elven name of the character Treebeard in LOTR. He is a grandfather tree and beloved in our neighborhood.

  33. ltr

    Now in Hewlett, Long Island at 2:35, the wind speed has picked up and the rain is harder but both like a normal fall wind and rain storm. I have had several recorded government warning calls, which tell me the world is coming to an end and which I resent, but all is secure and I believe will remain so.

    Hopefully, Valissa’s silver maple will be fine as well!

  35. JTFaraday

    It seems like the big problem is the potential flooding, so it may depend on where you are:

    “this evening, as the core of Sandy moves ashore, the storm will carry with it a gigantic bulge of water that will raise waters levels to the highest storm tides ever seen in over a century of record keeping, along much of the coastline of New Jersey and New York. The peak danger will be between 7 pm – 10 pm, when storm surge rides in on top of the high tide. The full moon is today, which means astronomical high tide will be about 5% higher than the average high tide for the month, adding another 2 – 3″ to water levels.

    This morning’s 9:30 am EDT H*Wind analysis from NOAA’s Hurricane Research Division put the destructive potential of Sandy’s winds at a modest 2.9 on a scale of 0 to 6. However, the destructive potential of the storm surge was record high: 5.8 on a scale of 0 to 6.

    This is a higher destructive potential than any hurricane observed since 1969, including Category 5 storms like Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Camille, and Andrew. The previous highest destructive potential for storm surge was 5.6 on a scale of 0 to 6, set during Hurricane Isabel of 2003. Sandy’s storm surge will be capable of overtopping the flood walls in Manhattan, which are only five feet above mean sea level.”

    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2280#commenttop

    As of this morning, towns along the NJ shoreline are already flooding:

    http://njsaltwaterfisherman.com/forums/index.php?topic=29680.0

    1. ltr

      Clarifying and what my understanding has been.

      Now 3:25 in Hewlett and a typical fall storm in terms of wind and rain.

  36. ltr

    Now we are 5:05 PM in Hewlett, Long Island, moderate wind, gusts a little more than moderate, and moderate rain. No flooding, twigs and leaves on the lanes or streets, no large branches were found. Power on.

  38. skippy

    FYI

    HURRICANE SANDY is three times the size of Cyclone Yasi, which devastated Queensland last year, and more than 15 times the size of Cyclone Tracy, which hit Darwin at Christmas 1974.

    Read more:

    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/environment/weather/yasi-tracy-dwarfed-by-mother-of-all-storms-20121030-28ghg.html#ixzz2Ajg9vIW0

    skippy… its not about Cecil B. DeMille visuals, its about wide spread Inundation, Topography, and Fluid mechanics. Water has to go some where… how long and how much you get is the question time will tell.

    PS. I ran for 600 Klm from the bloody stuff lmao…

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