Yearly Archives: 2012

Iran’s Untouchable Energy Exports

Yves here. Media reports in the US stress how tightening sanctions against Iran, particularly on banks, are increasingly isolating Iran, leading its currency to fall sharply. This article describes a key break in the cordon, that of electricity exports. But Iran’s major source of foreign exchange, its official dollar oil-related payments, via Standard Chartered, were roughly $500 million a day. The electricity trade is small relative to this total, but it is also an interesting act of defiance among American “allies”.

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The False Dodd Frank Narrative on Bank Profits (No, Honey, Obama Did Not Shrink the Banks)

In the final hours of the 2012 Presidential campaign, Obama backers have been trumpeting the case for their candidate, and like most electioneering, some of the claims don’t stand up well to scrutiny, particularly regarding the impact of regulations on big financial firm profits.

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Fed Budgetary Experts Demolish CBO Health Cost Model, the Linchpin of Budget Hysteria

A remarkably important and persuasive paper that calls into question the need for “reforming” Medicare has not gotten the attention it warrants. “An Examination of Health-Spending Growth In The United States: Past Trends And Future Prospects” (hat tip nathan) by Glenn Follette and Louise Sheiner looks at the model used by the Congressional Budgetary Office to estimate long term health care cost increases. Bear in mind that this model is THE driver of virtually all forecasts of future budget deficits.

This paper, although written in typically anodyne economese, is devastating in the range and nature of its criticisms.

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The BLS Jobs Report Covering October 2012: A Good Report That Still Doesn’t Add Up

By Hugh, who is a long-time commenter at Naked Capitalism. Originally published at Corrente. The Bureau of Labor Statistics continues to struggle with a model that does not correspond well to what is going on in the economy. Follow me. In the Establishment or survey of businesses, 171,000 jobs (seasonally adjusted) were created in October. […]

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Cathy O’Neil: Glen Hubbard, the Economic Whore

By Cathy O’Neil, a data scientist who lives in New York City and member of the Occupy Wall Street Alternative Banking Groups. Cross posted from mathbabe.org

As a loudmouthed data scientist/blogger/activist, I go on record regularly complaining about quants and data scientists who sacrifice their integrity to put out crappy or misleading or exploitative or destructive models because they want to make their bosses happy, or rake in big bonuses, or because they’re afraid to speak up and get fired, or because they don’t bother to think through the consequences of their actions.

But here’s the thing, I’m not sure what anyone can do about economists.

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Tom Ferguson: Massive Surge of Republican Money in Last Ditch Effort to Sink Obama

Yves here. This post is important not only for its perspective on the power of big money in current election but also in blowing up the myth of the role of small donors in Obama’s 2008 campaign.

Since October 17, the big GOP Superpacs appear to be outspending Priorities USA on media by at least three to one.

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Desperate Effort by Tyler Cowen and Megan McArdle to Silence Discussion about Income Inequality

A tangible sign that the issue of income inequality is taking hold in the American psyche: Tyler Cowen has made a patently ridiculous effort to try to change the topic, and Megan McArdle is dutifully amplifying it.

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Sandy Aftermath and the Fragility of Complex Systems

Even though the news media are generally focusing on the “progress is being made” aspects of the Hurricane Sandy aftermath (in large measure because that’s what officials are pushing), there is still a great deal of distress, as well as probable long-lingering problems that are not being acknowledged.

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Shock Doctrine, American-Style: Hurricane Sandy Devastation Used to Push for Sale of Public Infrastructure to Investors

As a result of fully warranted bad press for some privatization deals, such as the lease of Chicago’s parking meters, there has been a bit (stress only a bit) more critical scrutiny of the de facto sale of public assets to consortia of private investors. Nevertheless, major banks have been using the financial distress of states and municipalities to push these deals as a solution to budget woes, when it’s a short-term expedient that leaves the public worse off.

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The Rich Create Bubbles, Not Jobs

By Hugh, who is a long-time commenter at Naked Capitalism. Originally published at Corrente.

On June 7, 2001, HR 1836 the Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act was signed into law. This was the first and largest of several tax cut bills passed during the Bush Administration. It was estimated to cost $1.35 trillion with most of its benefits going to rich. So this should have spurred job creation. Give money to the “job creators” and they will create jobs, no?

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