Yearly Archives: 2012

Germany Slides into Recession

Composite Purchasing manager Index(PMI) data was released overnight for the Eurozone and much like the manufacturing release earlier in the week there was nothing to get excited about. German services collapsed in August to their worst reading since July 2009 and the composite index for the country moved deeper in contraction at 46.3. It now has become clear that the slow-down in economic activity in the Eurozone is biting the export giant.

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Broken Democratic Platform Promises from 2008

As the Democratic Convention continues, and generates positive headlines due to competent storytelling and effective use of show business tactics, it’s important to recognize that the ultimate meat of governing – policy – is disconnected from the election. It’s not that the election doesn’t matter to people, because clearly, people care deeply about which icon […]

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A breakthrough in Europe?

By Delusional Economics, who is determined to cleanse the daily flow of vested interests propaganda to produce a balanced counterpoint. Cross posted from MacroBusiness.

If the comments from overly excited EU parliament members leaving a “closed door” meeting with Mario Draghi are correct then the ECB president is about to announce a plan to buy unlimited short-term sovereign debt up to 3 years on the proviso that  national governments formally request assistance and are therefore bound to fiscal compliance via an MoU.

I am yet to hear any negative reaction for the plan from anyone of importance within the European elite  and it is a fair assumption that the major players have been pre-informed of the basics of the proposal. The question is just how much has been shared and whether this is actually a “plan”, or simply a vague proposal for one.

I find it difficult to believe that the “open ended” nature of the plan is acceptable to the many Northern European governments and it is also difficult to see how this isn’t direct funding of governments. We’ve also already heard from the German Finance Minister, Wolfgang Schauble, warning people to lower their expectations.  That said, if Mr Draghi has managed to negotiate the political minefield of Europe to allow for unlimited purchases of sovereign bonds then it is a huge break-through. I do, however, remain sceptical that this is the case given the proximity to the German constitution court decision and the multitude of times previously these sorts of rumours have been shot-down.

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George Soros’s Three Month Window on Eurozone Crisis Management Is Up

Three months ago, on June 2, 2012, George Soros gave a widely circulated speech about the Eurozone crisis. He mentioned “three months” four times in the speech. In my judgment the authorities have a three months’ window during which they could still correct their mistakes and reverse the current trends. By the authorities I mean […]

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Exchange Rates and Modern Trade Theory: An Interview with John Harvey

John Harvey is Professor of Economics at Texas Christian University. He blogs at Forbes and is the author of the book ‘Currencies, Capital Flows and Crises: A Post-Keynesian Analysis of Exchange Rate Determination

Interview conducted by Philip Pilkington

Philip Pilkington: Your book seeks to outline an alternative theory of what determines exchange rates in our world today.

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The Banks Are Bluffing – They Aren’t Moving Anywhere

Yves here. This is a subject near and dear to my heart. Banks occasionally harrumph that if regulators are too mean, they’ll just pack up and go somewhere else. That’s complete bluster as far as TBTF banks are concerned. Any major bank needs to be backstopped by a real central bank. The Caymans don’t begin to cut it. And central banks are actually not all that welcoming of world scale players trying to take advantage of the slack they give to banks they’ve been in bed with a long time. UBS considered splitting in two and relocating its investment banking operations when the Swiss National Bank announced it would impost 20% equity requirements. It has concluded it has to stay put.

Andrew Norton debunks another sort of threat made by large banks: that they will move significant activities out of particular financial centers like London.

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The European Zombie Slouches On

By Delusional Economics, who is horrified at the state of economic commentary in Australia and is determined to cleanse the daily flow of vested interests propaganda to produce a balanced counterpoint. Cross posted from MacroBusiness.

Another night of Eurozone Production Management Index (PMI) data and the downward trend in activity continues as expected. This summary from Markit Economic’s head economist:

The final reading of the August PMI confirms that the Eurozone manufacturing sector remains firmly in contraction territory. The rate of decline was a little slower than in July, providing some heart that the manufacturing downturn may be easing, but the sector is on course to act as a drag on gross domestic product in the third quarter.

“The national picture remains one of widespread contraction. Only Ireland saw manufacturing output rise, while larger nations like France and Germany remain in reverse gear. The situation in Italy is also becoming more of a cause for concern, as it falls further down the PMI league table.

“The ongoing weakness is unsurprising given that Eurozone manufacturers and their clients are still in a largely defensive mode. The uncertainty and cost caution resulting from the currency union’s ongoing political and debt crises are now being reinforced by softer global economic growth. This is hitting domestic markets, intra-area trade and overseas trade alike and is one of the main factors underlying the job losses and excess capacity signalled by the latest PMI survey.

“The broader long-run issue is that the Eurozone product and labour markets are unlikely to show any real sustained improvement until regional structural issues are addressed and the broader global backdrop brightens.

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