Yearly Archives: 2012

Tom Ferguson: Obama Lunches With Bloomberg? Here’s What’s Really Afoot When it Comes to Political Money

By Thomas Ferguson, Professor of Political Science at the University of Massachusetts, Boston. He is the author of many books and articles, including Golden Rule: The Investment Theory of Party Competition and the Logic of Money-Driven Political Systems. Cross posted from Alternet

Right now the political world is buzzing with speculation over a New York Times report that President Obama recently had lunch with New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg. Most commentary focuses on how a thaw in the two men’s often rocky personal relationship might advance the President’s reelection campaign. As the Times story put it: a reconciliation between the two men could help Obama garner support from “centrist, independent voters drawn to Mr. Bloomberg’s brand of politics.”

Look again. This story is a case study in how scrutinizing the news in light of some basic facts about political money can change your view of what is really afoot.

Links 3/13/12

Memo to Shaun Donovan: Your Nose is Getting So Long You Need to Get a Hacksaw

I know I owe readers some comments on the mortgage settlement, but that will have to wait a few days, since I need to pack to go to DC later this AM. But that will give me more time to digest the voluminous filings, and at least as important, the onslaught of spin.

For a good overview, read The Subprime Shakeout (hat tip Deontos), with one major caveat: he is far too positive about the servicing reforms. Servicers have not only never met these standards, they cannot meet these standards. The sorry history has been that servicers lose boatloads of money servicing highly delinquent portfolios, make a hash of it and cheat to recoup the losses.

But I couldn’t let this bit of propaganda go without comment. From the settlement FAQ:

JP Morgan Under OCC Investigation for Serious Debt Collection Abuses; Warnings Ignored for Over Two Years

I bet JP Morgan wishes it never hired Linda Almonte.

American Banker has released the first in what will be a series of stories on debt collection abuses by the New York bank. It confirms critics’ worst accusations against the financial services and belies Jamie Dimon’s tiresome assertions that JP Morgan is better than its peers. Dimon may still be right if you think excelling in abusing and extorting customers is commendable.

Satyajit Das: “All Feasts Must Come to an End” – China’s Debt & Investment Fueled Growth (Part 1)

By Satyajit Das, derivatives expert and the author of Extreme Money: The Masters of the Universe and the Cult of Risk Traders, Guns & Money: Knowns and Unknowns in the Dazzling World of Derivatives – Revised Edition (2006 and 2010)

The re-emergence of China has dominated recent economic and political discourse. The Chinese economy is forecast to expand by around 60% in the period between 2007 and 2012, compared to around 3% for developed economies. While China’s rise is important, its drivers are frequently misunderstood and poorly analysed.

China’s economic structure is deeply flawed and fragile. The Chinese growth story may be ending. As an old Chinese proverb, probably apocryphal, holds: “There is no feast that does not come to an end.”

Is the Fed Going to Go Easy on the Banks to Help Obama?

We were more than a little surprised to read a Bloomberg story on March 10, which reported that the Federal Reserve was giving banks a hard time over its latest stress tests, particularly on the possible losses on consumer debt if the economy were to take a dive. The story indicated that if the Fed held tough, major banks would be restricted in making dividends and buying stock. This seemed to be quite a volte face from the Fed’s previous “give banks everything they ask for and then some” posture. But some Fed defenders argued, no really, once the banks were out of confidence crisis land, the regulators always planned to get tougher with them about building up their capital bases.

If today’s Bloomberg story is accurate, whatever resolve the central bank had was awfully short lived:

The Legal Lie at the Heart of the $8.5 Billion Bank of America and Federal/State Mortgage Settlements

One in a while, you can discern a linchpin lie on which other important lies hinge. We can point to quite a few in America: the notion of a permanent war on terror, which somehow justifies vitiating not just the Constitution, but even the Magna Carta, or the idea of an imperial executive branch.

Now the apparently-to-be-filed-in-court-today Federal/state attorneys general mortgage settlement is less consequential than matters of life and limb. But it still show the lengths to which the officialdom is willing to go to vitiate the law in order to get its way.

Links 3/12/12

Yves will be speaking at a conference hosted by the Atlantic in Washington, DC, on Wednesday called “360 Degrees: What Will it Take to Fix the US Economy?” The day long program includes Paul Volcker, Robert Rubin, Larry Summers, and Sheila Bair (don’t get too excited, the big dogs get solo turns, Yves in on a panel). Her session on “Diagnosing a Sick US Economy: Why Did We Get Here and What is the Fix?” is from 10:20 AM to 11:45 AM and you can watch the live stream here.

Occupy the Garden

When I went poking about The Weather Channel for links on the warm winter, I was reminded how much I dislike that site: There’s always a threat or a disaster or a catastrophe of some kind. (My mother would say, of the weathermen when a blizzard threatened, “They get so excited and put on their sweaters.” And then, more often than not, the blizzard would blunder off into the Gulf of Maine.) Climate’s a concern; weather isn’t, unless putting people in fear gets them to buy tickets to DisneyWorld, or whatever heap of crud, crap, and corruption the marketers have dreamed up for us depending on whether it’s sunny or snowy or raining. So I went on over to the sane, sober, and fact-filled Weather Underground — no, no, Stasi algoritms and apparatchiks, not that Weather Underground — and found this terrific post from The Garden Coach: “What One Gardener Can Do.”

Robert Cowley, 2nd Baron Ardwhallan: an Unauthorized Web Biography (II)

By Richard Smith, spelunker of the Web. We started Robert Cowley’s web bio here and this is the second installment. We will be in Mayfair, London, or on the Gold Coast of Australia, and the story involves a dead Daily Mail journalist, a great racing driver, and a bad racing driver: a very bad one, […]

Michael Pettis: The World Bank Proposes Tough Medicine For China

Lambert here: The “tough medicine” is proposed in China 2030, by the World Bank and a Chinese government think tank, scheduled to be released Monday, March 12. Excerpts appear in the text.

By Michael Pettis, a Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a finance professor at Peking University’s Guanghua School of Management. Cross posted from China Financial Markets

Contrary to some recent research reports cited in the press I do not think we have seen any substantial rebalancing of the economy towards consumption in 2011. This is largely an argument being made by economists who did not see why Chinese consumption repression was all along at the heart of the growth model. These economists are now too quick, I think, to hail evidence of a surge in consumption, but I find the evidence very weak and more importantly I am convinced that there cannot be a sustainable surge in consumption as long as the investment-driven growth model is maintained and as long as debt continues to rise unsustainably.

And as for debt, it is still rising quickly. As regular readers know I have always argued that the rise in Chinese debt, as bad as it is, was not going to lead to a banking collapse or any other sort of financial collapse because of the way local and specific debt problems would be “resolved”. Debt would simply be rolled onto the government balance sheet.

Links 3/11/12

Michael Olenick: Beware of Housing Market Cheerleading

By Michael Olenick, creator of FindtheFraud, a crowd sourced foreclosure document review system (still in alpha). You can follow him on Twitter at @michael_olenick or read his blog, Seeing Through Data

CalculatedRisk has issued another housing cheerleader article, noting the inventory decline, especially in his back-yard, Some more comments on Housing Inventory.

It’s a shorter than usual than piece so here’s a shorter than usual rebuttal.
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Taxing the Rich Does Not Hurt Jobs

This Real News Network interview with professor of economics Jeffrey Thompson debunks the notion that increasing taxes on the well off is not a negative for employment.