Worksheet for the 2018 Midterms (“The Wave”; the DCCC)

Subscribe to Post Comments

26 comments

1. ambrit May 1, 2018 at 2:13 pm

   Just throwing this in there Lambert to show how “innovative” and “disruptive” Mississippi can be.
   We’ll be voting to fill both U.S. Senate seats this November.
   One, is the seat presently held by Republican Roger Wicker, a one term senator. Wicker has 3.44 mil on hand, and has spent almost 3 mil so far. His only primary opponent is a businessman. The other practicing politician opposing Wicker in the primary withdrew.
   The Democrat side has a varied bunch vying for the slot. The biggest money pile is with a businessman named Howerd Sherman. He has half a mil. The ‘official’ Democrat running is State House Minority Leader David Baria, also originally a businessman, with 120k. No Democrat running seems to have any ‘official’ Dem Party endorsements.
   The other seat is the one vacated by the ever duplicitous Thad Cochran. (He’s the one who, though a Republican, made deals with regional Black Church leaders to swing the usually Democrat voting black church patrons into voting for Cochran in the Republican open primary to defeat Tea Party clone Chris McDaniel in 2014.)
   An unreliable Republican, Cindy Hyde Smith, who was a Democrat up to 2010, was appointed to fill the Senate seat until the ‘jungle election’ this fall to permanently fill the seat for the rest of the present term. She is running to retain the seat. Her main opponent is the aforementioned Chris McDaniel, the Tea Party associated conservative. Special elections in Mississippi are non partisan, so, anything goes.
   The main Democrat contender for the rump of the seat is Mike Espy, a Democrat with a checkered career. He was tried and acquitted of corruption in 1998, and famously endorsed Arch Republican Haley Barbour for state governor in 2007.
   Two polls taken, one in late March and one in early April show Espy barely beating Hyde-Smith ( Chism Strategies (Espy) 34% to 27%,) or a dead heat, (Triumph Campaigns 33% to 33%.) Both polls show McDaniel still in the race with double digit percentages.
   Polls from mid April from Mason Dixon and again Triumph showcasing just Hyde-Smith and Espy show Hyde-Smith beating Espy, ( 46% to 34% and 42% to 36%,) but the undecideds are running about 20% across the polls. This could be a knock down drag out of a race. There’s a lot of foul smelling ooze and mud to be thrown in all directions. So far, no ‘official’ Democrat Party endorsements to be seen for this race.
   Stock up on flavoured popcorns.
   1. Big River Bandido May 2, 2018 at 7:48 am

      IIRC, Mike Espy was Sec of Agriculture in the Clinton Administration.
      1. ambrit May 2, 2018 at 8:49 pm

         Yep, he’s one of the ‘Misleadership’ class. Supposedly in tight with the Clinton Gang, but no endorsement yet.
         The Dems seem to be writing both seats off. Shame. This is a racially, half and half state, and could be in play if the Democrat Party put a little effort into these races. The older black community remembers the Democrat Party fondly, the old Great Society Democrat Party that is. These New Democrats aren’t promising the blacks anything at all now. Double shame.
2. Utah May 1, 2018 at 2:25 pm

   Thanks Lambert! I love the worksheets.
   UT-04 is down to Ben McAdams- we had our caucus/convention on Saturday and he won with 72% of the vote. He is a DCCC candidate.
3. John k May 1, 2018 at 2:28 pm

   Thanks for all the work.
   My guess is that a dccc candidate that now supports M in a busy primary thick with M supporters will waffle in the general and turn in office.
   He’d have no choice, he’s running for office because of the financial payoffs during and after office. Better than working at McDonald…
   And the dccc has multi seminars before and after winning teaching exactly how you maximize fundraising. M is a contradiction of terms for them.
4. Fred May 1, 2018 at 2:36 pm

   So why is my district, California 04, not on this list?
   1. JacobiteInTraining May 1, 2018 at 2:55 pm

      Can we provide add’tl data, I assume so? In my case, I see my district WA-09 isn’t listed, with a local candidate Sarah Smith running against the incumbent D Adam Smith. (no relation, lol) In this case i believe the primary is August 7, 2018

      Sarah would be here: https://www.votesarahsmith.com

      She first came to my attention through the Brand New Congress thing, and I give her $27 donations where possible. Her emails and tweets and positions sure seem to be good to me.

      Can’t find any polls….
   2. Lambert Strether Post authorMay 2, 2018 at 1:35 am

      I have to limit the scope. So I’m using the Inside Elections list, presented as it is on the assumption that the 23 votes needed to swing the House are in this subset of all elections. I can’t track the entire election.

      I’m also assuming that all the contending forces will invest heavily in these districts as well, since this is where the battle to control the House will be fought.
5. Hey Joe May 1, 2018 at 4:53 pm

   Leah Phifer dropped out of the Mn08 race on April 18.
6. sharonsj May 1, 2018 at 6:42 pm

   Here in PA the primaries are in two weeks and I have yet to see anything on local TV. I don’t buy the local newspapers (they’re useless). The state also completely remapped the districts and I can’t even find out who is running in mine. It’s all a joke but the joke is on us.
   1. Lambert Strether Post authorMay 2, 2018 at 1:39 am

      Sounds like a phishing expedition…
7. Oregoncharles May 1, 2018 at 6:44 pm

   FWIW, the Oregon primary is May 15. We already have the ballots.

   I’m not suggesting you cover the Oregon primaries – pretty boring, as far as I know. I just heard that Domenici in dist. 1 has a couple of primary challengers, but I haven’t heard that they’re much of a threat. Even DeFazio in Dist. 4 (mine) has a challenger, but not serious enough to put something in the Voters’ Pamphlet. Same goes for Schrader in the 5th. Don’t know about the other two – the major-party primaries aren’t a focus for me.
8. edmondo May 1, 2018 at 6:57 pm

   One more time:

   Ann Kirkpatrick does NOT support Medicare for all:

   Kirkpatrick knows the job, having served in Congress from 2013 to 2017 in northern Arizona. Impressively, she has raised a record $750,000 in the campaign’s first five months, with $465,000 cash on hand. She has the endorsement of former Congress members Gabby Giffords and Ron Barber, and she has the backing of the national Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

   She disagreed with all the other candidates on the subject of Medicare for All, an idea that Progressives cheer but which has no known funding source. “I don’t support Medicare for all in a single-payer system because I don’t see a way to pay for it all,” she said, noting that 140 million people already get health insurance from their employers.

   http://blogforarizona.net/kirkpatrick-is-front-runner-at-candidates-forum-for-tucsons-congressman/
   1. Lambert Strether Post authorMay 2, 2018 at 2:17 am

      She was a co-sponsor of HR 676.. That’s what I was going on. So she backtracked!!
      1. edmondo May 2, 2018 at 11:23 am

         60% of her contributions this cycle come from Emily’s List, DCCC, the “red-to-blue” PAC and Nancy Pelosi’s “Leadership” PAC, She will do as she is told. I guess I admire her for not lying about her position anyway,
      2. DonCoyote May 2, 2018 at 5:12 pm

         Lambert,

         With all due respect, I think you are reading that HR-676 link wrong. The AZ sponsers are Ruben Gallegos (AZ-07) and Raul Grijalva (AZ-03), since their names are in bold. Not every name on that document co-sponsered, only the bolded ones. That AZ list is (or was) all AZ representatives. Martha McSally is on that list and I guarantee she has nevered co-sponsered HR 676.
         1. DonCoyote May 2, 2018 at 5:24 pm

            In fact, I’ll offer a $25 Water cooler donation (per candidate) if you can produce evidence for Kirkpatrick or Mikey Sherrill actually support #MedicareForAll. I looked at both pretty extensively after the last worksheet and concluded no on both.

            As linked above, Kirkpatrick explicitly rejected recently and never signed on to HR 676.

            {Sherrill} “I’m for quality and affordable healthcare for each and every person in this country. I don’t think there’s one way to get to that, but I think we have to make sure we’re moving toward that.”

            “Moving toward” = “Strengthening the ACA” = “Fighting for” does not equal #MedicareForAll. No mention of single payer. Or on her website.
            1. Larry Y May 8, 2018 at 6:46 pm

               For NJ-11, Mikie Sherrill floated up the idea of a limited Medicare buy-in for those over 55, couched in terms of fiscally responsible. Otherwise, I agree, it’s hard to get a firm read. I mean, she also offered the idea of Medicare negotiating drug prices (offers VA as an example!), and has explicitly ruled out privatization… .
9. dcblogger May 1, 2018 at 7:15 pm

   wow, I am blown away by this, by far the most comprehensive overview of the House races.
   1. Lambert Strether Post authorMay 2, 2018 at 2:20 am

      Not nearly comprehensive enough!

      It will be interesting to see of the DCCC permits JG advocacy…
10. edmondo May 1, 2018 at 7:27 pm

    In TX-23, here are the two candidates’ positions:

    Gina Ortiz Jones:
    In Congress, Gina will make affordable, accessible, quality healthcare for every American – regardless of sex, age, income, or employment status – a top priority. Gina supports a single payer system and understands that with our country’s health, there can only be one incentive: a healthy population.

    Rick Trevino:
    Rick believes that healthcare is a right of all people and not a privilege. In the United States of America no one should die because they can’t afford to see a doctor. America’s health care system is broken. Rick will fight for a single-payer Medicare for All system that will lower health care costs and provide better services to all.

    If you believe that these two statements are equal, I guess that they both believe in M4A. Mr. Trevino
    s statement seems a lot less “lawyerly” to me though.
    1. Lambert Strether Post authorMay 2, 2018 at 2:30 am

       Both use the “single payer system.” That, to me, is the dividing line (because it’s nerdy language that signals to the already committed on the left, unlike, as so many have pointed out, “Medicare for All.”)

       I don’t believe those statements are “equal”; I’m not sure where that comes from. For reasons stated, I throw both candidates in the “M” not “fM” bucket. If the language was vague handwaving about “universal” “access,” no, or “buy in,” no.
11. allan May 1, 2018 at 7:30 pm

    Not on your list, but NY-24 should be close and has been in the news due to DCCC bigfooting.
    Sadly, the DCCC’s chosen prog-blocker has (barely) survived a ballot petition challenge and
    will be on the ballot for the June 26 primary:
    
    Juanita Perez Williams survives effort to oust her from Democratic ballot for Congress [Syracuse.com]
    As a reminder,

    Balter won the Democratic designation in February from party committee members in the four-county district. But Perez Williams launched a last-minute effort in April to force a primary, backed by Democrats from the national party in Washington.

    And now,

    Juanita Perez Williams survived a challenge Tuesday to disqualify her from appearing on the Democratic ballot for Congress, and now will likely face Dana Balter in a June 26 primary election.

    Lawyers representing Perez Williams spent more than five hours at a hearing at the state Board of Elections in Albany, arguing that she had enough valid signatures on nominating petitions to appear on the ballot.

    Before the hearing, local Democrats who support Balter had succeeded in proving that 1,884 of Perez Williams’ signatures were invalid — leaving her with only 143 more than the minimum 1,250 needed to appear on the ballot.

    But the effort failed to gain additional traction at the hearing Tuesday as lawyers for Perez Williams succeeded in defending the validity of her remaining petition signatures. …

    And who is paying the lawyers for Perez Williams? But wait, there’s more …

    … “If Dana Balter and [GOP incumbent] John Katko want to continue working together to fight the state of New York and overturn the will of thousands of voters, that’s a real shame,” Perez Williams said in a statement. …

    There’s a special place in h-e-doublematchsticks …

    [Just to be clear: Balter’s healthcare “Medicare for All” stance is a little wishy-washy,
    but apparently is too far left for the DCCC.]
12. Colin Spenncer May 2, 2018 at 8:39 am

    “I don’t support Medicare for all in a single-payer system because I don’t see a way to pay for it all,”

    How about:

    1- Rescinding the latest tax law passed by the GOP
    2- Raising the corporate tax rate, including the multinationals that do not pay any corporate tax at all.
    3- Taxing the casino called Wall Street

    There is plenty of money out there to pay for Medicare for All but there is very little to no courage and backbone from Democrats.
13. rcv4usa2sos May 2, 2018 at 8:24 pm

    Thanks for synthesizing this, Lambert. Really valuable information. (I would recommend putting the key at the top, though, for future posts, so people who are seeing it for the first time won’t be confused by the notation.)

    I thought of you and this when I received an unfortunate email yesterday: In MN-02, the CD2 DFL endorsed Angie Craig, so although Minnesota’s primaries aren’t until 8/14, you can call that one for the Democratic establishment… Interestingly, when I read the email, the first thing I did was go to his website (to seek clarification with respect to the nomination in conventions vs. primaries), only to get a “Your connection is not private” message, redirected so I can’t access the site. I guess I could use the Wayback Machine, but I know the answer to the question I was seeking now, so why bother?

    And in getting an answer to that question, I stumbled across results from MN-08 as well: Jason Metsa and Leah Pfifer can be removed, though convention-goers were ultimately unable to choose between endorsing either Kirsten Kennedy or Joe Radinovich, so those two, as well as Michelle Lee, will advance to the primary. (Michelle was eliminated in contention for nomination at the convention, but she refused to drop out when it moved to the primary. I am not familiar with the lay of the land there on the ground, nor her as a candidate or person, but this could actually work in the Left’s favor, since she will be one candidate supporting Medicare-for-All against two candidates who do not in the primary. We shall see.)

    I would bet the other 6 districts also have had their conventions if necessary, but while I’m here, I’ll at least share the results of the other MN targeted districts. (I hope this is helpful?)

    MN-03: Brian Santa Maria dropped out beforehand, and Dean Phillips was nominated after defeating Adam Jennings.

    MN-01: Dan Feehan won. I can’t speak to what happened to the other candidates. Just finding the winner was more difficult than I would have expected.

    (Full disclosure: have not had a chance to review the other comments, so apologies for any potential duplication.)

    And finally, Lambert, if there’s a way you’d prefer for us to help you determine nominated, eliminated, and dropped out candidates, just let us know!
14. Larry Y May 8, 2018 at 6:32 pm

    For NJ-07 Peter Jacob is endorsed by Our Revolution (https://ourrevolution.com/candidates/peter-jacob/).

Comments are closed.