Worksheet for the 2018 Midterms (Status Quo, with a Look at the Winners So Far)

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19 comments

1. Arizona Slim July 23, 2018 at 1:33 pm

   Controversy in Arizona CD2:

   http://www.tucsonsentinel.com/local/report/071918_yuksel/pima-dems-disavow-cd-2-candidate-yuksel-after-dismissive-reaction-rape-claim/
   1. Azazello July 23, 2018 at 2:33 pm

      Hey Slim,
      Add Az-02 – Ann leads all fundraisers thanks to DCCC Red-to-Blue money, Heinz is second, Matiella third.
      
      1. edmondo July 23, 2018 at 5:24 pm

         Mary Matiella may as well be on the side of a milk carton. She’s been MIA while Heinz and Kirpatrick slug it out on TV. I want to vote against Kirkpatrick and Matiella is the one I most closely match up with politically but no one can find her. I will probably vote for Matt Heinz in the primary and vote Green n November when Kirkpatrick wins the nomination.
         1. Azazello July 24, 2018 at 10:17 am

            Mary’s around, she’s been knocking on a lot of doors. She’s a Justice Democrat so she won’t take corporate money and television is expensive. She has Grijalva’s endorsement and that’s enough for me. She may have a chance if Heinz and Kirkpatrick do enough damage to each other with negative TV ads. Full disclosure: I’m a campaign volunteer.
      2. DonCoyote July 24, 2018 at 11:08 am

         And even more AZ-02 craziness: Someone impersonated Ann Kirkpatrick and got on Fox News

         The “someone” was actually Massachusetts (MA-03) Democratic candidate Barbara L’Italien. And Fox News wanted Kirkpatrick after Kirkpatrick supported ICE in a AZ-02 debate last week.
         1. Arizona Slim July 24, 2018 at 12:32 pm

            Me again. More from AZ CD2:

            http://www.tucsonnewsnow.com/story/38713244/congressional-district-2-candidate-danny-morales
2. dcblogger July 23, 2018 at 2:30 pm

   it looks like for every new voter registered a current voter has been purged:

   We had 112 million Americans registered to vote in 2016 and it is now down to 110 million. Two million voters have vanished. What’s happened? The answer, from my investigations, is purge-by-postcard

   https://www.gregpalast.com/palast-testifies-in-front-of-national-commission-for-voter-justice/
   1. Lambert Strether Post authorJuly 23, 2018 at 5:01 pm

      It is true that this is unjust. However:

      1) A party must play to win whether the field is muddy or not;

      2) The Democrats, institutionally, aren’t doing squat to bring new or discouraged voters into the system, and I’m not talking about getting a one-time grant from some squillionaire to register some demographic in a few states.

      Of course, both parties functionally collaborating to exclude most voters and then fight over a diminishing base that skews wealthy and educated does kinda makes sense….
3. HotFlash July 23, 2018 at 3:54 pm

   HI Lambert,

   Your link for Fayrouz Saad MI-11 is:

   https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2018/07/worksheet-2018-midterms-status-quo-look-winners-far.html

   Probably should be :

   https://www.fayrouzsaad.com/
   1. Lambert Strether Post authorJuly 23, 2018 at 4:58 pm

      Thanks very much! Fixed on the page, fixed in the database
4. Mike Mc July 23, 2018 at 6:05 pm

   NE-02 – Kara Eastman is the Democratic nominee, having whipped Blue Dog Brad Ashford in a close race:

   http://www.wowt.com/content/news/Nebraska-House-race-too-close-to-call-482759911.html

   Please, please delete Ashford from this list – we deleted him here in the Second District (mostly Omaha NE).
   1. Lambert Strether Post authorAugust 6, 2018 at 7:26 pm

      Eastman is the winner; I haven’t worked out a way to format the winners yet.
5. John k July 23, 2018 at 6:54 pm

   Would be nice to see which of these close races feature a m4a progressive that won the primary or, if not yet run, still has a decent chance to win it.

   Btw… are new elections for party key positions, that I think are held after nov election, made with the old house members, or does that election wait for the new ones to be seated in Jan? E.g., If Crowley does lose in nov, does he get to vote?
6. Jeffrey Radice July 23, 2018 at 6:57 pm

   Lambert, you should revisit your criteria for “remotely in play”.

   I would say both of the following are remotely in play, and there are probably more like this nationwide:

   KS-04: Thompson only lost to Estes by 7% in the special election and has been campaigning since, with the ground game (see e.g.: Bernie + AOC rally last Friday in Wichita).

   TX-31: Hegar out-raised Carter by a country mile (due to her viral video) and has the right background to win here — She’s a veteran, and native of the district. I work in the southern part of this district, and there has been explosive growth here in southern Williamson County over the past few years — huge amounts of housing development. Demographically, the parts of this district in the Austin-Cedar Park-Leander (and even Round Rock) corridor are much closer to left-leaning Austin than they are to Carter’s Tea Party Caucus membership. From Round Rock south, these are basically bedroom communities for Austin. Hegar also has a compelling story and can arguably pull the active duty and veteran voters in and around Killeen away from Carter. I don’t know what her ground game looks like, but this race will be competitive.

   An argument could be made that any TX district mentioned in this story could be considered remotely in play, but definitely so for TX-31, given the demographic shift in the district and the biography of Hegar.
   1. Lambert Strether Post authorJuly 23, 2018 at 11:04 pm

      Broadening the criteria is a good idea, now that all the other pieces are in place.
7. cocomaan July 23, 2018 at 9:58 pm

   The Democrats have already poisoned the election well and called the 2018 elections into question wrt Russian meddling. It remains a picture perfect excuse for why the party can’t seem to win. Same will go for 2020.

   It’s a really dangerous game, but it’s the card being played already.
8. DonCoyote July 24, 2018 at 10:55 am

   Lambert, thanks as always for maintaining/updating.

   Michigan primaries are August 7th. You have MI-07 correct, but have 08/27 for MI-06, MI-08, and MI-11.

   In general, what do people think of later primaries? (Lots of them in August: Arizona, Florida, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Washing, Wisconsin, representing 21 of the seats on Lambert’s list). I personally like them, more time for “…letting a hundred flowers blossom and a hundred schools of thought contend”, less time for “coalescing” and “getting behind the winning candidate” (TINA). I think I would actually like primaries in September (go New Hampshire!) and generals in November, but they haven’t put me in charge yet.
   1. edmondo July 24, 2018 at 5:45 pm

      Isn’t the real reason for August primaries so that those “liberal” college students don’t vote from campus?
   2. Lambert Strether Post authorAugust 6, 2018 at 7:21 pm

      Thank you!

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