While there is an explosion of coverage on the Hamas attack and Israel’s ferocious response, there’s a lot of redundancy in the information conveyed, even allowing for differences in sources and factoids. A new, freed from paywalls post by Elijah Magnier, Gaza’s New Challenges: The Drone Onslaught that Awaits Israel, stands apart in conveying some key developments that don’t seem (yet/at all) widely reported, and using that as a platform for further commentary.
I urge you to read this new post in full. It’s carefully reasoned. Nevertheless, I will take the liberty of hoisting what seem to be particularly important points:
The war is already doing damage to Israel’s society and economy. We had highlighted early commentary that stressed that Israel was vulnerable to a meaningful exodus of its population, such as fairly recent immigrants and tech workers. That is en route to happening and then some. From Magnier:
On the ground, there’s a palpable sense of desperation. A growing number of Israelis and foreigners are going to the civilian airport, eager to escape the rising tensions. Their urgency is heightened because many foreign airlines have suspended flights to and from Israel. This mass departure highlights not only the immediate dangers of the conflict, but also the more profound, lasting effects it may have on Israel’s social morale and economic resilience.
Magnier also pointed out that the stock market suffered a dramatic selloff and the currency fell sharply too.
Hezbollah is believed to be set to act in a serious way, and not merely lob a few rockets. Again from the post:
Hezbollah’s recent rocket attacks, which targeted Radar Hill and the occupied Shebaa Farms and sent a resounding message domestically and internationally, have raised the stakes. Their message is clear: involvement in the Gaza conflict is not a matter of ‘if’ but of ‘when’. Both Hezbollah and Israel appear to be on the same page, preparing for what seems to be an inevitable showdown.
This means Israel is facing a two-front war. Hezbollah, early on through Egypt warned that it would attack if Israel did not “regulate” its response. The ferocity of the air strikes and the intent to send ground troops in would seem to be anything but that. It is not hard to image that whatever Hezbollah would do at scale would either be immediately before or immediately after troops went in so as to maximize the physical and informational challenge.
Hezbollah is unlikely to be alone in attacking Israel. Magnier warns of massive drone attacks from multiple borders:
Israel has evacuated all northern settlements to pre-empt any surprises similar to those witnessed in the southern regions near Gaza. The skies are set to become a new battleground, with swarms of drones poised to join the fray from multiple directions, from Syria, Iraq and Yemen. As the situation intensifies, the rallying cry for a “Unity of the theatres” among the “Axis of the Resistance” supporting Gaza grows louder, signalling a united front on the horizon.
Israel’s military suffered more than is acknowledged in the Hamas attack, particularly the loss of intelligence, and is showing some signs of disarray:
In a significant development on the first day of the assault, Palestinian forces made substantial inroads, advancing into Israeli camps and targeting the 8200th Intelligence Unit among other 11 military barracks. This unit, a linchpin of the Israeli intelligence apparatus, is directly linked to the Gaza Division Command and oversees drones that gather intelligence for Israeli targeting.
The successful attack on this unit, resulting in its destruction and the reported capture or elimination or escape of its personnel, has severely affected the Israeli military’s intelligence capabilities. This setback is evident in the Israeli army’s lack of actionable intelligence. It appears to have failed to anticipate or counter the resistance fighters who managed to capture Israeli soldiers and move freely in and out of Gaza even on the third day of the conflict. This breach underlines the resilience and strategic capability of the Palestinian resistance and the weakness of the Israeli army when faced with determined militants.
As other commentators have pointed out, Israel may be drawn into a conflict that it is not well adapted to fight. This is in addition to the fact that if it goes into Gaza in a meaningful way, it could be caught in a clearing-operation type campaign. The result would be a high level of casualties on both sides. Consider the points made by reader Louis Fyne:
Gaza has 2 million people in roughly a hellscape the size of Mannhattan.
In no scenario can 100, 200,000 troops pacify that zone to match Bibi’s rhetoric!
And a big chunk of the IDF are reservists, many secular Jews.
If the IDF will enter (to match the rhetoric), it will be horrific fighting and erstwhile middle-class comfortable israeli families will see suffering (KIA) at levels not seen since 1948.
Per capita worse than US in the Vietnam War.
And remember just months ago, Bibi was on the doorsteps of receiving a colour revolution.
So you have urban, suburban reservists fighting/dying for ultra-right-wing Orthdox political aims. (and there are various IDF draft loopholes that benefit the ultra-orthodox)
Ironically the opposite of the US, where the meme is that conservatibes will not volunteer to fight for a woke Pentagon
Whether by design or accident, Hamas will pressure Israeli society in any long-term war at pre-existing fault lines….
folks understandably have blood fever and want revenge…..but a rash invasion of Gaza will make things worse for everyone, including Israeli Jews
Now back to Magnier:
Inside sources have highlighted the growing unity and strength of the ‘Axis allies’ in the face of the Israeli military. They argue that the Israeli army, which traditionally relies on air strikes to pave the way for ground operations, avoids direct confrontation unless areas are pre-emptively cleared with extensive bombing. The sources point to instances where Israeli forces withdrew, leaving behind their war equipment when Palestinian militants attacked their military barracks in the Gaza Strip encirclement.
Drawing parallels with the 2006 conflict, the sources suggest that the Israeli army may face determined and fierce resistance, similar to the combined forces it encountered in southern Lebanon after the initial heavy bombardment.
Magnier does point out that an Israel ground assault against Gaza could be limited and avoid triggering a large-scale Hezbollah attack. Or it could go for splitting Gaza in two, which MAgnier deems as extreme but potentially effective. But he also repeatedly suggests that Israel’s opponents are coordinating possible cross-border attacks, particularly with drones. Now there may be a big gap between intentions and effects, since joint operation is a fraught affair.
A major wild card is what Netanyahu will do. He’s been caught flat-footed and both temperamentally and out of a presumed need to prove Israel’s prowess, seems inclined towards maximalist responses. That tendency is not at all helped by press amplification of the more bloodthirsty views among Israel’s backers, particularly in the US.
This may fall into the category of drawing a yarn diagram too tight, but one has to wonder about the Hamas massacre at the music festival. Maybe Hamas was horribly undisiplined once it broke through the containment fence, but a BBC reconstruction depicts the attack on the festival as methodical.
And now Hamas has elicited even more fury in Israel with its threat to broadcast the execution of hostages if Israel does not dial down its bombing of Gaza. But consider:
Hamas' best-case scenario right now is the IDF charging into Gaza without adequate planning or preparation. They want to turn the strip into Grozny '95 writ large.
Given the Israeli government and media are pounding the table for action they very well might get their wish. pic.twitter.com/zkrdtX5WkP
— Armchair Warlord (@ArmchairW) October 10, 2023
One has to wonder if there was design in the threat to execute hostages, as opposed to this being a desperate move after Israel started massively pounding Gaza (as in Hamas mistakenly thought the presence of so many hostages would lead Israel to be more selective in its strikes). Would these acts be shocking by design, as an attempt to build pn the Napoleon rule, summarized as don’t get in your enemy’s way when he making a mistake, here trying to goad Israel into making the mistake of a hasty ground assault on Gaza?
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‘The war is already doing damage to Israel’s society and economy’
Got that one right. A day or so ago I was reading that-
‘The Israeli shekel fell 3% against the US dollar on Monday to trade at more than 3.96, marking its weakest level in eight years. The currency has plunged amid the escalation in the conflict between Israel’s security forces and Palestinian armed groups in Gaza.
Israel’s benchmark TA-35 stock index also dropped on Monday, falling 0.3% and extending a 6.5% decline from Sunday.’
https://www.rt.com/business/584414-israel-shekel-plunge-hamas-attack/
In addition, ‘Israel’s central bank said Monday that it is prepared to sell as much as $30 billion of its $200 billion foreign currency reserves to shore up the Israeli shekel which has plummeted in value since the country was attacked by Hamas at the weekend.’
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2023/10/09/central-bank-pledges-30B-currency-support/2801696847470/
Normally Israel would just go to the US Congress and ask for a few billion to solve their problems but with the chaos that Washington is experiencing right now, this may not be so simple. If Israel decides to re-occupy Gaza, then all bets are off.
There is no DC monopoly money coming in the short term, but they can dump any US treasury holdings on the central bank’s balance sheet to raise cash or support the shekel.
there are gobs of papers that ponder the appropriate number of troops in counter-insurgency.
In Northern Ireland during “the Troubles”, it was roughly 20-25 per 1,000 (or 40/50k extrapolated to Gaza).
In colonial France Algeria (pied-noirs), it was 60 per 1,000. Supposedly in Chechnya it as 150 per 1,000 (or 300,000.)
In my opinion, the IDF does not have enough warm bodies (including reservists) to pacify Gaza and deal with a worst-case scenario in the north.
(no one in the West really knows the true military capabilities of Hezbollah, but given its experience in all the Mideast proxy wars since 2006, Hezbollah probably can fight better than the US or Israel in urban fighting).
And the current Israeli govt’s rhetoric is not moderating —–and DC is getting on board too, seeing an easy war and some easy targets for US airplanes and missiles to kick arse.
We are on the slippery slope to a quagmire at best—-a Strait of Hormuz closure at worst.
The Neocons are already saying that this would be a great time to attack Iran which they always wanted to do and make people forget their debacle in the Ukraine. Lindsay Graham came out with the brilliant idea and said-
‘If there is an escalation in this conflict, if hostages start getting killed, if Hezbollah in the north attacks Israel in strength, we should tell the Ayatollah we will destroy your oil refineries and your oil infrastructure’
https://thehill.com/policy/international/4246338-graham-us-should-threaten-iranian-oil-infrastructure/
So now Graham wants a region-wide war to solve all these problems. Strong talk from a man who has a season-pass to a government nuclear bunker.
The Rev Kev: Let’s count these up: Proxy war in Ukraine led by the U S of A. “Soft” war on Germany through Nord Stream and sanctions blowback led by the U S of A. Involvement in a new war in Israel led by the U S of A. Tangling asses with Iran led by the U S of A.
I’ll leave it at four, as in the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse.
Someone in Washington DC has gone thoroughly mad.
Someone or everyone? And has the madness been going on for decades now?
So far the Bidenistas seem not to be jumping on board the intervention train. Perhaps they at least realize the huge implications (political for them if nothing else). Meanwhile Lindsey and of course his media enablers are a different story.
There is a definite push by the neocons to bring Iran into this conflict. But I’ve also noticed some resistance to this so far, even from within the administration. Of course there is a lot of warning bluster directed toward Iran, but there have also been officials (including Sullivan if I remember correctly) who have admitted that there is “no direct evidence so far” of Iranian involvement. Perhaps there are a few military or intelligence advisors who have a bit of sanity left.
Only for state department etc to ignore them completely because what they say is inconvenient.
A country of 90 million people is a different matter entirely. The brain dead neocons might believe in Lockheed Martin, but anyone who has to think about a conflict knows it’s nuts. Israel is a loud, little dog the US can pick up if we need to, but we aren’t going to let it attack a Rottweiller.
Right. It could be the neocons have passed their high water mark which was 9/11 and the Iraq invasion. Somebody tell the NYT.
Of course not. The United States will attack the rottweiler for its poodle.
We already did this in Iraq.
25 million people in open terrain, surrounded by US forces, and after both having their military knocked out and a decade of crippling sanctions. Maybe a fat, deaf old cat?
Iran is second only to Cuba when it comes to a nation able to rile up DC simply by continuing to exist.
Yet we don’t hear too many calls to invade Cuba…
Re: Northern Ireland extrapolation, yes but it was really only the 40-45% Catholic population they were counter-insurgencing so-to-speak (who initially cheered the armies arrival thinking they had come to quell attacks on their communities), similarly the population is far more dispersed (it’s currently 67% urban-33% rural, would guesstimate it would have been closer to 50-50, or even majority rural in the 1960’s), the ‘trouble’ being mostly in the major urban areas, the two major urban centres being Derry and Belfast, Derry having a current population of 80,000 and Belfast 200,000, which would have been presumably lower 50 years ago.
Is there any need for a ground force to enter Gaza to pacify it? Blockade everything and demolish and/or fire bomb. If IDF has enough ammunition and delivery systems it then it’ll be quick otherwise starvation, dehydration and disease will eventually work. It won’t look good in some parts of the world, and Israel will have to deal with that, but I expect Americans and Europeans will cheer it on and chip in.
united states enters the chat
not yet, but things are not looking good….
I agree, but would put in 2 points. 1st, when you train your army for counter Insurgency, you don’t have an army. You have a mis-guided police force with automatic weapons. When said “army” meets a trained-in-urban-fighting group of armed men, said army loses, big time, ie WTF, the IDF lost control of their own army bases? to a bunch of “terrorists / militants”?? ).
And the idea of Israel attempting to take ground in the Gaza Strip brings to mind Germany’s effort to take Stalingrad. The Germans totally failed, their army never went on the offensive for the rest of their fighting, and otherwise was quite hollowed out.
Ok, a 3rd point. This is NOT a 9/11 for Israel, it is their Pearl Harbor moment. America came back from their Pearl Harbor moment, caused by the inability of DC and the US military to believe that Japan, a non-European nation, could/would successfully attack them. But unlike the Americans, the Israelis do not have an ocean between them and their attacker.
Many thanks for access to the Elijah Magnier post, which holds still more dire facts and analyses.
I thought that the opening was insightful, so I will add this quote: “Israel finds itself in a state of war, driven not only by strategic objectives but also by the urgent need to restore its tarnished reputation. Recent events have dealt a blow to Israel’s image, and its Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, now seems determined to retaliate by seeking some form of battlefield redemption.”
Indeed. A few years ago, I might not have remarked on Magnier’s observations, yet Ukraine has been so much about image, memes, and propaganda that I’ll even accept his use of the word “redemption.”
One aspect of Magnier’s style in his article is important: Magnier writes about Hamas and Hezbollah as military forces. The press in general is (quelle surprise!) already getting sloppy in writing about Hamas and Hezbollah as terrorist organizations. Magnier sees that we have a war on our hands. Let’s start analyzing this event as a war.
Further, I am reminded of the military might some other “terrorist” organizations deployed and how those organizations evolved. Because Israel has frozen the occupation, reduced Palestinian politics to dull authoritarianism, and mistreated the Palestinians, political evolution is suspended. Yet I am reminded of how the IRA evolved toward what we now see as Sinn Fein. (And commenter Plutonium Kun has astutely described Sinn Fein’s changes.) I am also reminded of how the ETA in the Basque country moved toward becoming what is now EH Bildu, a fairly successful nationalist party.
But those changes required good-faith negotiations. Because we see that the U. S. of A. and Israel also seem to have unlimited reservoirs of bad faith, I suspect that the situation in Palestine is going to get much worse. And here we are: Once more letting slip the dogs of war.
Two points.
The best use of Hezbollah is as a threat. They are much more militarily capable than Hamas, and their most important function would be to pin down a large proportion of the Israeli forces in the North, with a few attacks from time to time but nothing major. This might be unpopular in the short term, but would serve the long-term aspirations of both Hezbollah and its Iranian backers, who both need a functioning Lebanese state, and so would try to avoid the war spreading to that country. It would also put an intolerable strain on the Israeli military machine.
Second, I don’t see what possible objective any forces sent into Gaza could actually have. Classic counter-insurgency campaigns (Algeria, Northern Ireland Afghanistan) were attempts to defeat insurgent forces, with some support from the population as a whole, who were fighting the established power. But in Gaza the established power, in effect, is Hamas itself, so the only objective I can even theoretically imagine would be to try to destroy that organisation physically, and take over direct running of the territory, installing a military government, and running it effectively as a conquered territory. I don’t think they have the forces to do that, especially on a continuing basis, even if they had the political will.
yes, (arguably) the optimal rational-actor move by Hezbollah/Iran is to posture enough in the north to tie down the IDF, without crossing any red lines.
on the other hand, if Hezbollah/Iran ever wanted to roll the dice and press for a wider mideast war, now is the time (rational? irrational?): Ukraine, depleted war stocks, Bibi’s pre-war popularity, US petroleum reserves at all time lows (US won’t experience shortages like in 1973 due to fracking, but we would see >100% increase in gasoline).
And we never know…..someone in the West Wing might solve Hezbollah’s/Iran’s dilemma by lobbing some Tomahawks into south Lebanon.
The Arab states can unite politically for a while to defeat a common enemy. But it’s unlikely to be anything serious. Expressing moral concern and sending humanitarian aid is one thing. Military involvement and a collective front against Israel is something different. Ultimately the Palestinians are on their own.
The sympathies of American politicians are on the side of Israel. But no one wants to quarrel with the Arab States either. The same applies to the EU govts.
As for Israel the clocks ticking they seem to be leveling the Gaza from the air for now but a ground invasion would would turn into a disaster for the IDF. This isn’t the IDF of 1948 to 1973.
I think Hezbollah/Iran will happily sit on the sidelines and allow Israel to sink into the quagmire of the Gaza Strip should they take the bait.
Purpose of Hama’s extreme violence is to push Israel into an even more extreme retaliation. Bringing Islamic countries together against Israel (& US). Hamas have in effect conducted a organizational suicide mission. Iran staying low reinforces suspicions that the Hamas actions are to galvanise Sunni Muslims against Israel in an active war. US joining the war to support Israel against Hezbollah’s opening up a northern front will trigger far reaching consequences globally. Did Israel force the US’ promise to engage Hezbollah in exchange for not using nukes to resolve the issue? How well will US go up against Hezbollah? What if Hezbollah fires a huge swarm of missiles at the Gerald Ford carrier group? (Russia returning the favor providing real-time ISR targeting info) If carrier group retreats, its a huge blow to US prestige. If damaged, Israel may panic and nuke South Lebanon. And China would come to know that US carrier fleet is useless in any engagement over Taiwan.
I suspect that the Chinese are aware of the legacy of Billy Mitchell (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Billy_Mitchell), who in the early 1920s demonstrated that battleships, the construction of which consumed massive resources, were extremely vulnerable to naval bombardment and therefore obsolete. Mitchell wrote:
“sea craft of all kinds, up to and including the most modern battleships, can be destroyed easily by bombs dropped from aircraft, and further, that the most effective means of destruction are bombs.”
For our purposes, substitute the word “battleships” in the foregoing passage with the words “aircraft carriers” and substitute the word “bombs” with the word “missiles.” Finally, delete the words “dropped from aircraft.”
While I suspect, but can’t ultimately be sure, that Hezbollah does not have enough missiles to threaten the Ford carrier group, I do suspect that Iran has enough missiles to threaten a carrier group, thereby potentially rendering the Persian Gulf off-limits to carrier groups should hostilities seriously escalate.
And, of course, that means our military service members are once again, and unfortunately, put in harm’s way by the policy of all parties to increase, rather than decrease, hostilities. Sigh…
Old Sovietologist wrote: “The Arab States can unite politically for awhile to defeat a common enemy.” Yes, that’s the usual behavior.
Much of this is like “looking through a glass darkly.” We look at the figures behind the scenes and what they are doing. Consider the build up of the BRICS, China/Russia, and what Saudi Arabia might have in mind.
Secondly, we find it very interesting how the UK/EU/US is, apparently, leaving Ukraine. Why?
Thirdly, consider how the US Trade Deficit has jumped Trillions more just in the last 3 months.
Does this mean this deficit is caused by fewer nations like, China, some BRICS, who are backing away from using the US$?
It’s very difficult to grasp an authentic understanding of how the Big Chess Players are playing chess.
Israel is used to mowing the lawn to satisfy its blood lust every few years. There have been no strategic military gains from any of these mass killings, the Palestinian population grows and becomes more radicalized each time, and there is rebuilding with better weapons as low-cost military technology evolves. And there have been no Israeli geopolitical gains, other than attempting control by a reign of fear.
“And there have been no Israeli geopolitical gains, other than attempting control by a reign of fear.”
This is the crucial point. The best Israel can ever do in regards to Gaza is to reset the status quo minus some thousands of Gazans and wait another decade for the next big attack. Yes they technically could carry out a more permanent “solution”, but the social, economic, military, and political costs of doing that would be immense and could just end up hastening Israel’s demise in some other way, so in practice it has remained and off the table and I believe will remain off the table absent something as drastic and existential as a march on Jerusalem. And so Israel can never truly win in Gaza. With nothing to gain and everything to lose, they will simply keep attritting themselves and the Gazans until eventually something breaks.
I fully believe that Hamas understands this and is actively seeking to exploit this asymmetry. It’s a bloody, bloody strategy they’re employing, and if mishandled it could spell the end of them, but so far they seem to be handling it well enough. Callous? Yes. But then, such is the logic of war.
We’re in a different situation. Either Bibi launches hundreds of thousands of troops at Gaza or he backs down. And if he launches the troops there is no possible military objective for them other than trying to kill the largest number of people possible in one of the most densely populated areas in the world, and suffering enormous casualties at the same time. As I say, some kind of proconsular rule seems about the only imaginable objective.
The use of military force doesn’t need to accomplish a military objective, nor necessarily correspond to well spun strategy. A political objective that reflects (perhaps echoes is more appropriate) state policy is enough. And, if policy has sharpened to become ever more intolerant, as has been seen, and given a sufficient cause (which is distinct from reason), then an operational objective, not the same as a military one, echoes the political as well.
Such objective seems, as Magnier stated, to restore the tarnished image of the IDF, and the humiliation of being surprised; causalities already as heavy as in the Six Day War. But fwiw, he also alludes to a possible military strategy, the division of Gaza in two. It might be useful to reread that section of his analysis. As well, to read a prior article he posted on what he calls the Axis of Resistance. The immediate crisis doesn’t breathe on its own.
Regarding your last point on the nature of Hamas violence, I can imagine a number of factors at play: a desire to maximize fear among Israelis; revenge for the suffering their own families have faced over decades; bargaining power in the case of the hostages. But after watching the evening news last night I know what the propaganda result will be in the US. NBC spent nearly all of their newscast featuring these victims, framing the stories for maximum terror/atrocity effect. The festival massacre was featured prominently, as was the murder of the daughter and son-in-law of the Brandeis professor. Also emphasized more than once was the fact that there were Americans killed (11 as of last night). Our local News also featured prominently local rallies in support of Israel (I live in upstate NY). There was definitely a “new 9/11” vibe that will serve to justify whatever response is forthcoming. I can only imagine what the effects would be in Israel. I fear what is coming.
“I fear what is coming.”
I share that sentiment. I try to rein in my imagination. There is no shortage of plausible, horrific scenarios. An extremely nasty week draws nigh. I’m sure it will not be the last. Bibi Trumpanyahu channeling his Inner Dubya, while utterly predictable, does not inspire confidence.
George “Dubya” Bush was surrounded by neocons who he essentially took marching orders from.
This is not to excuse whatever neocon tendencies Bush may personally have had, and of course not to excuse his warmaking.
George Bush is a war criminal just like Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu. And Trump and Obama (both of whom were also surronded by neocons), and Sharon and Olmert. They are all war criminals. The list is neverending.
My point is that it’s misleading to create a moniker for Netanyahu that begins with Trump, and to then go on to declare that “Bibi” is channeling an inner George Bush.
The internal mechanisms driving Benjamin Netanyahu were not developed as a result of being in a “George Bush” environment. Nor for whatever small amount of time he has spent with Donald Trump in his long life.
I am reminded of a piece on “perception management” that I came across recently. They operate in the subtlest of ways so as to seem imperceptible to the casual reader, when in fact repeated repetition of said subtelties has the cumulative effect of acting quite forcefully on the psyche.
I was reading Ian Welsh’ site and came across this information-packed comment:
https://www.ianwelsh.net/thinking-about-a-hezbollah-intervention/#comment-148191
The above link quotes a specific section of a 2002 Guardian article by Brian Whitaker on the Israel/Zionist propaganda outlet MEMRI. The quoted passage is a simple example of how this works:
https://archive.ph/8q1w7#selection-1253.1-1261.278
The American Conservative produced an article back in 2014 that outlines many of the techniques Israel uses to propagandize the public at large:
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/israels-information-ops/
Everyone should familiarize themselves with the “Hasbara Handbook: Promoting Israel on Campus” – particularly the “Seven Basic Propaganda Devices”:
Name Calling, Glitering Generally, Transfer, Testimonail, Plain Folks, Fear, and Bandwagon.
https://wikispooks.com/w/images/e/e7/Hasbara_Handbook.pdf
These are psychological devices that are intended to play on human emotions in order to upend logical thinking and crtical judgement. They intentionally create logical fallacies by toying with human beings’ empathic capacities in order to produce outcomes favorable to only their side.
It struck me that those making for the airport may be those who resist Netanyahu’s legal reforms. They won’t stick around to fight for a regime they don’t believe to be democratic. Naturally, Bibi would be pleased as punch about that. So, similar to Ukraine, those volunteering/remaining to fight, to enter the meat grinder so to speak, will be the fash?
The deeply orthodox Jews have many options to not serve in the Israeli military, as well as not contribute economically to the nation. What happens when large numbers of secular middle-class aspirational families start losing their young (both male and female given the gender-blind conscription) against Palestinians who have little to look forward to in life? If the IDF go in “big” in Gaza it could quickly turn into their Vietnam.
The Israeli state needs those secular Jewish families as without them the population imbalance will turn heavily in their disfavour, already less than 50% of the residents of Israel/Palestine are Jewish. The birth rate of the Jewish population is also significantly less than that of the non-Jewish population.
Craig Murray comments:
Now We Have Your Attention
https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2023/10/now-we-have-your-attention/
Thanks flora. I saw this yesterday but it is worth posting many times as a response to the predictable media coverage I’ve seen the last two days. Of course it won’t be read by the people who need it most.
Thanks. He pretty much sums up my point of view and seemingly most of the people here.
The dilemma for Americans is that when it comes to Israel we seem as trapped as the Gazans. After all Trump was even more pro Zionist than the Dems and that goes for all those competing Republican candidates as well.
And no relief from the contrarian politicians either. RFK jr. is zealously pro Israel.
The Israelis like to talk about “facts on the ground” and maybe reality will finally set in and change things if we can forestall The Samson Option.
weirdly, this is the first mention of the Samson Option that i’ve seen in rummaging around far and wide since this began.
The USA also appears to have its own “Samson Option” – to be willing to destroy life on earth unless it can maintain global hegemony. Kinda like a spoiled child kicking over the sand castle
I see Vivek was on Carlson scolding Nikki for her kill them all rhetoric. So maybe a little bit of dissent among the Republicans.
Tulsi Gabbard: “The United States must stand with Israel in the face of this terror attack by the Islamist terrorist group Hamas. This is just the latest example of the greater war being waged by both Sunni and Shia Islamist jihadists throughout the world. This should be a wakeup call to leaders everywhere that Islamist jihadists are the greatest short and long-term threat to the safety, security, and freedom of the American people, and people throughout the world. ”
Aligning herself with Trump? Disappointing, to say the least.
Tulsi was always about running the US Empire in a more efficient and effective manner, not getting rid of it.
I’ve been mulling over my recent American history, and I recall Obama’s tour of the ME, which I believe had a definitive impact on Tel Aviv; and then came Trump. Assuming Team Hillary is pissed about that and/or have come to regret the unruly Israeli influence on the Beltway, they may very well be throwing Israel under the bus. Uncharacteristically Pro-Palestine media coverage, and rumblings of Ukraine ‘arms purchasing’ would support that theory. I’m more for the cats-paw to play musical wars with Iran theory, myself, with the surprise attack by Hamas being a mobilization device… Bibi gets to put his feet in the ocean, and we get to crack open another market via the aftermath, and get this, we’re using more proxies (for now, though ultimately, private Johnson is just a proxy isn’t he?). So if not under the bus, then maybe into the pot…
I don’t know anything. I write all my entries here w GPT5.
Yes, thanks for the Murray link. Refreshing to see a bit of historical context.
“Thus the “Indian Mutiny” became a Victorian tale of rape and murder of British women and of the Black Hole of Calcutta. Thus the Mau Mau were evil butchers, and the IRA were terrorists, which is the modern term of art for those resisting evil and foreign rule.”
Also, the British had no right to give away land that didn’t belong to them in the first place. The world still suffers from the legacy of the British Empire
The United States unequivocally condemns the unprovoked attacks by Hamas terrorists against Israeli civilians .
–NSC Spokesperson Adrienne Watson
There are moments in this life … when the pure, unadulterated evil is unleashed on this world.
–President Biden, describing Hamas’ attack on Israel.
Biden was really referring to the actions of the US – killing Native Americans, Mexicans, South Americans, Vietnamese, Cambodians, Laotians and others all over the world. Weren’t you Brandon?
Today’s Voltaire network newsletter is also worth a scan
[I take it that Meyssan is Syrian ba’athist-allied and thus an opponent of Muslim Brotherhood affiliates like Hamas]:
Paradigm shift in Palestine
by Thierry Meyssan
https://www.voltairenet.org/article219779.html
I take Meyssan’s work with several grains of salt. But there is some useful information here that helps counter our tendency to over-simplify a very complex political situation among the various “pro-Palestinian” allies. For example, Hamas did emerge with links to the Muslim Brotherhood, the sworn enemy of the Ba’athist government of Syria. Hamas itself supported the Islamic insurgency against that government, as did the US and its allies in Turkey and the Gulf states. [As an aside: this is why Ben Norton, Max Blumenthal, and the future Grayzone folks who were working with the Palestinians originally supported the anti-Assad insurgency – before they wised up.] Also, while most people know that Hamas was/is an enemy of Fatah, not everyone knows that it was originally supported by Israel precisely as a divide-and-rule strategy to weaken the PLO (blowback is a bitch). As the Meyssan piece indicates, this history means that the relationship with Iran and Hezbollah is rather complicated, as much as the neocons want to lump them all together – as do many pro-Palestinian commentators who link them all up as the “Resistance.” There is a tenuous alliance now, but it is not that simple. Throw the devious Gulf States in and you’ve got a very complicated situation. The poor Palestinians have been churned by many forces in addition to Israeli apartheid and ethnic cleansing.
to be taken with several grains of salt indeed, especially his most provocative paragraph [caveat emptor]:
Isn’t Yemen too far away as a source of drone attacks?
For someone like me who is already convinced that humanity’s future on this planet is coming to a rapid end, the quickly developing violence in this region is troubling to put it mildly. How does this conflict not spin entirely out of control? Is there a scenario where Israel doesn’t get obliterated if all her neighbors are intent on exactly that? I’m not convinced that the west is able to prevent this from happening.
>8 billion people on Earth.
Even if you very liberally draw a box around Jerusalem, <300 million. Less than the population of the US.
Humanity, as a species, will be ok. Individual Israeli, Palestinian families, not so much
Humanity, as a species, will be ok. Perhaps. I would entertain a scenario that doesn’t lead to a greater and more widespread conflict, which, of course, increases the chance that someone is going to feel the need to use a nuke.
Humanity may survive but I guarantee civilisation will not.
Understandable conclusion, mrsyk.
However, we remain optimistic despite the ability to blow up the whole planet. We would venture to say, that there are ENOUGH super powerful entities who much prefer keeping the planet safe, ONLY because it offers massive greed for stupendous self enrichment. Why end it now, when there’s always PROFITS to be made. :)
The USS Gerald Ford task force cruising around the eastern Mediterranean brings to mind a remark made by the sorely missed Pierre Sprey shortly before his death two years ago. “The US Navy now has two kinds of ships: submarines and targets.”
My (now-retired) wife was the Director of QA for a Federal contractor that built the Afghan defense ministry compound (their “pentagon“). I always called it “an $80 million target.“
But the USG/Congress chooses to spend 100s of billions every year on over-priced, ineffective hardware to please their paymasters. They can’t jeopardize the bribestream. However, they can’t maintain Full Spectrum Dominance with ineffective or inferior weapons, so the Decline And Fall of the American Empire is a volume that someone will have to write pretty soon
(We can read the Gibbon classic in the meantime, Paul Kennedy’s classic Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, and the new one from Hudson, The Collapse of Antiquity)
Bringing up the Point: If it is not independently tested it does not work.
That applies for all systems.
And the systems that the testers themselves are part of?
Check out this Newsweek read: https://www.newsweek.com/netanyahu-haaretz-israel-gaza-blame-attack-1832963. Netanyaboob and the Israeli FRightwingnuts asked for it. The US MICC is a bit stretched thin with all its current forever wars. The dysfunction in DC must also be factored in. So, who is itching with nuke ’em lust? Disgusting!
All this talk about military solutions leaves me cold. Maybe I’m just old, but I keep coming back to the 1973 Yom Kippur War and the devastating 1974 OPEC Oil Embargo.
The American obsession with “sanctions” has legitimized another embargo. The strong statements by the Indonesian and Malaysian leadership reported in The Straits Times are focused on the desecration of Al-Aqsa. The leadership of Iran is calling for a conference to come up with a unified response to Israeli provocations in the West Bank and Jerusalem — not only focused on Gaza.
Oil producing countries are heavily weighted toward Russia and the Muslim world. An oil embargo on the scale of 1974 would be devastating to the Western economies — and governments — already weakened by the proxy war against Russia. Just in time for the 2024 U.S. elections!
CNN Interview….MUST SEE
https://twitter.com/davidrkadler/status/1711103806002377167?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet
Thank you for this. Quite remarkable to see on a mainstream media outlet. Barghouti is beautifully eloquent. Makes one wonder how this got through the filters. Or, is there a change in the mainstream narrative?
I don’t watch any TV News. I imagine this is a one-off. Great discussion, though.
Though there is a great deal to discuss, I want to add a word about the massacre at the music festival.
It is impossible to understand what’s happening without knowing details about life in Gaza, which I’m sure most readers do but many Americans and Israelis don’t. Israel has controlled Gaza since 1967 but, more importantly, there has been an economic blockade of Gaza since 2006 that produced 45% unemployment, electricity for only half the day, poor access to clean water, and you can’t even leave Gaza for medical treatment.
I’m reminded of the Ghetto riots in major US cities during the 1960s. Often, a short distance away, people lived remarkably well compared to the Black populations within the Ghettos. Black people were out of sight and out of mind until they weren’t.
There is no justification for the massacre at the music festival. However, as it took place very close to the Gaza border, for Israelis to enjoy themselves only minutes from the place where there is daily suffering tells me the Palestinians and Gaza were out of sight and out of mind for Israelis.
The days of living out of touch with reality may be coming to an end for the average Israeli.
You did not read analysis at the BBC link. The behavior in the massacre was not that of My Lai or the Rape of Nanking, of acting out of rage. It was methodical and systematic. It had the appearance of being part of a strategy.
The BBC is as reliable as the NYT.
Ad hominem. This was a detailed analysis based on videos, with maps and witness accounts.
It also would have been more consistent with the current “Palestinians are animals” to depict them as enraged and wild.
It is also the BBC that has been trying to find all the Russia military dead and has published very low numbers, again counter-narrative.
The German/Israeli woman shown in the bed of a pickup truck and claimed as raped and murdered is alive in a Gaza hospital. According to Newsweek, her mother is trying to get her out with German help.
Yeah, but they (MassMediaCartel) do have to maintain (limited) credibility. So, they do report some accurate information once in a while. Even the Guardian will put out something decent once in a while.
@JonnyJames,12:04
Re mainstream media (MSM) and accuracy, at least re Ukraine: my impression is when an MSM outlet has people reporting on the ground at the front or in cities regarding living conditions, the reports are pretty accurate.
When it is normal coverage, or rent-a-general or think tank comment, it’s flat out propaganda.
An apparent strategy of targeting the class privilege of out-of-touch secular Westerners.
The BBC report claims that it is “impossible to know” if the festival was targeted — when all evidence points to a planned operation intended to inflict maximum casualties and capture a maximum number of hostages. The BBC talks about the music “reverberating over the quiet countryside” — which effectively gave the attackers a full day to target the festival for an assault.
My Lai wasn’t a riot — it was planned and led by officers and NCO’s. Read Nick Turse’s Kill Anything That Moves — the attack on the Supernova festival was in some ways distressingly similar to what happened at many locations during the U.S. war on Vietnam.
The more interesting item is that apparently this “festival” was invite only and they didn’t tell folks where it was going to be until approximately 24 hours in advance. It is highly unlikely that Hamas knew about the location at all in real time – they basically found them due to pure luck of the organizers holding it at that specific location.
And there are survivors saying that these types of festivals are usually held in the hinterlands instead of urban areas to avoid police scrutiny. I haven’t been to a rave since the late 90s – but the level of drug use at these types of events is very high and also explains why so many were still actively partying as the sun came up. An all nighter for sure.
Hamas is quite specific that “Operation Al-Aqsa Flood” was in retaliation for the desecration of the Al-Aqsa mosque complex by over 800 ultra-orthodox settlers last week under the watchful eye of armed Israeli security. This trespass was an escalation from policies respecting the sanctity of Al-Aqsa in effect since 1967 that has caused extreme consternation and outrage throughout the Muslim world.
However, it seems quite evident that the thumping Supernova festival of infidels just across the fence caused Hamas leadership to make an adjustment in timing and strategy “in real time” in order for their already planned incursion from Gaza to target the privileged partiers. They had a full day after the “music” started in order to orchestrate the attack for maximum effect.
I’m sure it was “methodical and systematic” and I wanted to say “The Supernova” music festival, billed as “a journey of unity and love” a stones throw from people who are suffering, attended by people responsible for the suffering, would enrage anybody to the point of madness.
Yes, doesn’t seem to have been fundamentally different from methodical pilots periodically bombing civilian buildings in Gaza.
Somewhere in comments there’s a comment that the ratio of Palestinian deaths to Israeli ones is 40:1. I remember reading that Germans in occupied France used a 10:1 ratio – for every German killed by the resistance 10 French civilians would be shot.
Americans topped that at 100 to 1.
Physical violence is always fundamentally different then violence from afar. I’m not sure how many here have been victims or attackers. I was physically abused for most well all of my childhood. I am highly sensitive to physical violence, IE I can read a predator/typically violent man better than most.
Physical violence is not surgical, you always have it with you. My military friends have similar scars…the people the inflict violence carry scars as well. I don’t know any air force vets but I don’t think they share our scars.
I can easily put myself into their mindsets with the added anger of collective punishment. The men that organized this attack should be held responsible. You do not kill women and children. I do not care what the other side has done. An atrocity is still an atrocity.
I am a bad Buddhist….we need to find a way to hold the society and individual responsible for collective and personal actions.
Perhaps Truth, Reconciliation, Respect, and Forgiveness are the only answers that can break the murderous cycle.
I understand why the Zionists thought that it was necessary to violently expell the Palestinian people from their homeland. I understand why the Palestinians have concluded that there is no realistic alternative to their current predicament other than murder.
Violence begets violence and so on into infinity. Vengeance has never brought back the dead. But until all reconcile themselves to the truth that no person or group should ever exert hegemony over Jerusalem and the so-called Holy Land, the suffering will never end.
The cumulative Israeli death toll >1,000 today (civilian and military).
On a per capita basis that’s nearly 50% of the US death toll from the Vietnam War….all in under one week.
Even if the Ghost of Christmas Future visits Bibi tonight, we’ve passed the point of no return for the maximalist option for Hamas/Gaza. Social media, traditional media all want vengeance (even extermination).
Hamas has taken hostage at least 11 Americans, earning the attention of a carrier group. Surrounding the aircraft carrier are AEGIS missile cruisers, the same system that protects Japan from China. Aboard the carrier are members of US SOCOM, who’ve spent last 20 years fighting non-stop in-person, who now have statutory authority to conduct counter-terror rescue operations against what is the equivalent of a rough neighborhood in Baghdad, only Gaza has less guns than Chicago. The push will be Biden’s Bin Laden operation for an election win.
The all-seeing eye of a synthetic aperture radar is watching the place which formerly existed as Gaza. In complete darkness, without water, the eye will watch as Hamas fighters dehydrate, become infected with disease from the open sewers, come-down from the drugs, empty blood banks, radio batteries dead, adrenalin spent, knowing that they united a divided Israel and lost their best, youngest, total-buy-in gullible, fighters marauding. The living are not so confident.
If Gazans can murder 1,000 people, they were not in so-called cages after all. But now they are, where they will sit and putrefy until they, themselves, eat Hamas’s leadership for the calories. And the world will watch without a stain on our conscience.
I’m a bit lost as to what is the point you’re trying to make.
War crime sandwich. Hamas is between the US and Israel in a de facto war crime sandwich. Or what would have been considered a war crime had Hamas not dragged Gaza down to the netherworld of stateless terror.
In 2014 three Israeli teenagers were murdered by Hamas, and Israel converted 2,500,000 tons of rubble or 18,000 tons per sq mile of the Strip. There isn’t enough Gaza to destroy for Israel to come to its senses. Israel’s going to need Tehran to come down. Those dead and kidnapped Americans are strike three in the War on Terror ball game still authorized by Congress.
Shiva is seven days. That’s how long Gaza has to regime change itself. Today is day four.
So you’re saying that the Palestinians should prostrate themselves and yield to the Israelis otherwise… the Israelis will keep doing what they were doing already, if on a more expedient timescale? Guess that’s one way to victim blame. Also “regime change”? What do you think Gaza is? How would they change any regime, including “their own”? I was happier when I hadn’t understood what you were saying.
What do you do when you are desperate, and there is no ‘right’ action you can take? You do something wrong, or you do nothing. If you do nothing, in Gaza, I think you just wait for death.
Maybe the high, enlightened, ethically correct action for a person in Gaza, is to shoot their whole family, before they suffer more. “Sweet old Grandmother, who cared for this stupid little boy.” Bang! “You my pretty wife, strong woman who stood always by me, I—” Bang! “My beautiful, beautiful baby, I love you so much.” BANG!
Two-sided coin. Ramzy Baroud says no matter, Israel has lost “the war”. (No one really wins though, as thousands of people will be killed and the bloodbath will continue)
https://www.counterpunch.org/2023/10/10/the-gaza-war-is-lost-but-will-netanyahu-concede/
You are why Gaia is itching to be rid of us.
Which world?
The problem with this comment, aside from the dubious use of a character from Greek mythology that can interpreted a thousand different ways, is that it seeks to transmit the impression of the IDF and US armed forces as implacable, hegemonic and invincible – Zeus like.
But Israel has been doing the eye for an eye thingy with Arab enemies it made itself for almost its entire existence, and all it has accomplished is the flight of its some of its most talented people, and the almost total isolation of its economy from that of the surrounding region, so cutting potential growth.
As to the US, it was kicked out of Afghanistan by a bunch of guerrillas armed with 1960’s Kalashnikovs, and the Ukrainian proxy it trained and armed is being literally shredded by a regional power with an economy eight times smaller than its own.
All in all, the North Vietnamese already showed more half a century ago how to tell and pull apart a Western paper tiger, and no amount of paper monsters from Western mythology is going to change that.
The initial reports I saw were this was a “peace” festival. Later reports most reports I saw called it a rave, and described attendees as soldiers and settlers. Not sure what to believe.
Richard Medhurst took the position that they were soldiers but the German woman and Chinese Israeli woman are not soldiers. It seems like a peaceful rave that was focused on peace love and harmony. Hamas’ leadership should have bypassed this area and went after military targets. It was a mistake or a deliberate war crime. Either way, Israeli propagandists are able to use this crime to form global opinion.
Craig Murray wrote that the 40:1 ratio more or less holds true over the decades of Israeli policy/wars/attacks. If this holds, it does not bode well for Palestinians.
The Guardian reports today 1,500 “Hamas Fighters” (likely many civilians as well) have been recovered and the bombing continues…https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/10/hamas-prepared-for-a-long-war-with-israel-as-concerns-for-hostages-in-gaza-grow
As bad as this is for Israel, it is going to be much worse for Palestinians, even if Hezbollah or some others come to help.
Yes, you can get pretty big ratios if you bomb dense cities… reminds one of Baghdad and others, and the view that 500k kids deaths was ‘worth it’.
The west conquers and subjugates for fun and profit because it can. It will stop when it no longer can.
Well, the West is discovering in Ukraine that “it no longer can”.
The us seems to be itching to help israel bomb Gaza. If it does, the moderate Arab states seem likely to be forced to move away from the us, and maybe try to push us bases out of the region (gtanted Iraq has not yet managed that trick), especially as there are competing power centers beckoning.
Perhaps they would limit themselves to hezbollah, granted restraint is not a us strong suit.
Russia and saudi might help pressure the west by selling less oil.
There is ample evidence that militarism makes a nation stupid. Israel is just the latest victim of the feckless substitution of armed force for diplomacy. A settlement guaranteed by outside powers could have brought peace to the region long ago, but war lovers on all sides have made this impossible. The results of war are unpredictable, but the consequences of stupidly are not.
Hmmm, hard to take ‘massive drone attacks’ seriously from the likes of Iraq, Syria & Yemen. Syria’s govt. is on a Russian life-support machine, barely able to hold themselves together as a state – let alone attacking new opponents. They have to listen to the Russians & for some reason they aren’t allowed to even retaliate when Israel attacks them all the time going back for years, with no real reason needed. Iraqis are too busy fighting each other internally & desperately trying to not collapse into a failed state, to attack anyone else, they don’t even have enough water to survive long term now that Turkey has dammed the big rivers upstream. Yemen is already a failed state, still slowly being starved back to the stone age by Saudi Arabia.
How predictable so much breathless hoping that at last the evil Zionists will be driven into the sea. Of course nobody wants them driven into the sea, everyone just wants “justice for Palestine” or whatever. Unfortunately, Hama’s social media strategy kind of reminds too many people that “driven into the sea” might actually be the goal and might actually be meant literally.
Ok, I get it, Israel has been mean and unjust toward the “Palestinians” – true enough even if the Jew haters can never concede that it’s a two way street.
One thing I think I can agree with is that there is not much in the way of decisive military options for Israel, especially when it comes to occupying Gaza. Certainly that would be a mistake. Although I detect a great deal of hope in the article and comments that Israel will take that course – I guess that is because all the “justice for Palestine” folks are so wanting some kind of equitable solution.
Probably, Israel will pound Gaza for as long as public opinion allows. With Ukraine, words like “war crime” and “genocide” have been pretty much neutralized in the west as the west has embraced those sentiments for itself. So it may be that Israel will have longer than they have had in the past. Maybe that will be bad for Israel, to have to call a halt itself rather than be compelled to by phone calls from their “friends”.
Since there is no real military objective, the war will turn personal. Stepped up efforts to identify and kill Hamas leadership personalities all the way down into middle management. Limited incursions into Gaza: probing raids and recon by fire to see whats there and keep Hamas engaged in the fight.
Bakhmut has certainly shown the way on how to conduct Urban battles: slow, methodical, patient: raze the place block by block. But thats not really going to happen on a grand scale.
The middle east needs a solution. There wont be a solution until the rest of the Arab states who initiated the problem decide to become part of the solution. But nobody wants the “Palestinians” because wherever they go they create disorder. The only solution that will please people, besides the Israeli’s, is Israel’s destruction and Israel is not yet ready to be destroyed.
I wasn’t aware the rest of the Arab states invited colonialists into their neighborhood. I must have missed that part.
And Netanyahu has consistently rejected any notion of agreeing any kind of peace treaty with Arab countries.
Right, it’s all the fault of the Palestinians.
I think Hamas is a vicious terrorist organization that just committed a massive series of crimes against civilians. Israel is an apartheid regime that exists because of a series of massacres that led to ethnic cleansing in 1948. They have continued to commit crimes ever since. In 2018 they murdered over 200 unarmed protestors.
It is possible to be honest about the crimes of both sides. Give it a try.
So, your basic argument is that it’s the Palestinian and Arabs fault and if you don’t agree you’re an evil anti-Semite. Unfortunately nothing will hide the cancer of apartheid, the rivers of blood and the cries of the victims that you’re desperately trying to blame/ignore/hide/coverup. And the truth is you’ve summoned the angel of death; you shouldn’t be surprised that he/she/it showed up on your doorstep too.
people who do not support israel’s apartheid state regarding the palestinians are not jew haters. the israeli jews that support their government’s actions since its founding are fascists and settler colonialists. not only that, but they are recreating the cycle of abuse – they once lived in ghettos and were subject to brutality, now they do that to the palestinians. 40% of palestine is under the age of 14! gaza has been blockaded for longer than they’ve been alive! war is horrible and many on both sides will suffer, with this latest development essentially being a collective suicide mission on behalf of palestine given how historically harsh and asymmetrical israel’s response has been.
signed, an anti-zionist jew who believes zionism makes the world less safe for jews worldwide. by design.
For Haredi Jews secular Zionism remains a religious heresy
The continuing rejection of modern Zionism by some ultra-orthodox Jews disrupts the argument that anti-Zionism is always antisemitism
Haredi Jews unfurl Palestinian flag to protest Zionism
During protest, groups chant ‘Zionism does not represent Jews’.
In your fantasy world- the occupied must be nice to the occupier and seek a solution. The both-sidism is nauseating.
To be fair, both Hamas and the government of Israel are war criminals. Israel is the aggressor against the Palestinians and deserves most of the blame, but nothing justifies deliberate murder, something both sides do.
Stop war making is the answer.
Chris D.: Ben Farenz says war crimes can only be avoided if countries avoid war in the first place. Not only will the bad guys commit them, the good guys will commit them, too. This is the natural course of humanity’s most destructive activity. It’s easier to deal with that truth in general, but what about in miniature, on a personal level? After those Americans killed prisoners in Chenogne, there was no big trial.
Take no prisoners
Benjamin Ferencz, A former prosecutor at the Nuremberg War Crimes Trials
What haunts veterans the most?
What is the result if the Israelis kill every muslin Israeli in Israel ?
Given what I heard herd herd is discussions with is Israel’s’ staunch supporters, that is a possibility.
These is no middle ground that one could look to.
Gaza’s remains would become a large set pf piles of rubble with no living survivors. As would the left bank.
>>>Gaza’s remains would become a large set pf piles of rubble with no living survivors. As would the left bank.
Unfortunately, my knowledge of the region’s current politics is limited, it appears to me that this is what the most extreme Jewish Israeli religious-nationalist fanatics want. Netanyahu has allied with the more extreme of the right including these extremists to maintain his power both to keep his family and their allies grifting and to avoid prosecution for his economic crimes.
What good is an F-35 in guerrilla, urban, fighting building to building?
The IDF is set up for either a large scale confrontation between large land armies or
as essentially a police force imposing its will on civilians.
Israel doesn’t need more F-35s, or electronic gadgets.
It needs infantry, which it does not have, and never will.
The IDF should ask itself how the Germans fared in Stalingrad.
The odds are getting better that events will outstrip the ability of any leadership in the most important countries involved will be able to control them. And the most important leaders on this case are making emotional decisions. Netanyahu wants his vengeance. Biden is around the bend and wants his.
The problem with leading countries is that it takes serious people who understand emotions but do not act directly on them. We don’t have those in the “civilized” west. And the mistakes they’re on the brink of making can’t be walked back.
Beyond the human tragedy of the innocent being killed in a struggle between those with degrees of power or at least some ability to fight in this conflict, damage will be multiplied for the future, when the current observers have digested all the lessons of this. International institutions, treaties & understandings negotiated over the last few generations, to try to limit the worst human behaviour even in war have been eroded so far that this may have finished off whatever was left.
Around the world, the point of this conflict that will be taken by the warmongers of tomorrow is that if you have enough power, nothing can hold you back from doing what you want to your chosen victims. Already we have a recent surge in violent conflicts, from the coups sweeping across the Sahel to the rapid ethnic cleansing of an Armenian sub-population that was isolated in Azeri territory. (by arbitrarily-drawn colonial borders) Those Armenians were effectively imprisoned in an area without enough resources to survive on, for months, then bombed & otherwise attacked in the full knowledge they had no way to survive that, given the attackers had them surrounded, sound familiar?
Prediction: More wars will break out everywhere because everyone is realising it’s now a multi-polar world, so the old king (US) can no longer solely dictate what wars happen. In this new phase of human history, scores can now be settled where grievances had been festering & any player who thinks they can do it will try to grab resources held by others if they think they can get away with it. It’s really just a reversion to the mean of life on earth before the superpower era, when regional powers engaged in more-or-less constant wars – the Napoleonic era for example.