Yves here. I have to admit to suffering from a lack of sufficient imagination. When I saw the tweet below from guurst, I thought the motive was to put US/NATO ships at risk so as to strengthen the US case for other countries to join the inaptly named Operation Prosperity Guardian, to protect commercial commercial ships transiting from Houthi fire (as we and many others have described, much easier said than done). Over my pay grade, but one wonders why the many countries that opposed Israeli action in Gaza would go along (assuming they are). But having Chinese, Iranian and Indian warships in theater to keep tabs on the potentially not friendly Operation Prosperity Guardian warships.
IMPORTANT 🚨’Israel’ is endangering the world in the Red Sea:
At the beggining of operations, Yemen spokesperson instructed vessels to keep their Automatic Identification Systems (AIS) ON and that 𝗼𝗻𝗹𝘆 𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘀𝗲𝗹𝘀 𝗲𝗻 𝗿𝗼𝘂𝘁𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝗜𝘀𝗿𝗮𝗲𝗹 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗯𝗲… pic.twitter.com/LEVfckHLIb
— Military Eye (@MilitaryEye) December 20, 2023
By John Helmer, the longest continuously serving foreign correspondent in Russia, and the only western journalist to direct his own bureau independent of single national or commercial ties. Helmer has also been a professor of political science, and an advisor to government heads in Greece, the United States, and Asia. He is the first and only member of a US presidential administration (Jimmy Carter) to establish himself in Russia. Originally published at Dances with Bears
A Russian military blog post posted on Thursday, December 21 at 11:33 Moscow time, has revealed the hitherto secret positions of all warships in the area which the Pentagon has announced for its OPERATION PROSPERITY GUARDIAN.
The fresh data and the open map (lead image) were not available when yesterday’s report was published at 09:32 Moscow time of Russia’s “two-track” strategy for opposing the US and NATO, and for protecting Russian oil shipments while the Houthi drone and missile operations are under way against Israel.
No Russian Navy vessel is in the area at present although Russian crude oil cargoes are moving through the Red Sea with Iranian and Houthi agreement. Because these ship movements are defying US and NATO sanctions, it has been decided in Moscow to negotiate safe passage with Iran and Yemen rather than deploy the Russian Navy to protect them. However, the new combined US and NATO operation, targeting the Houthis and their Iranian support and supply systems, increases the possibility of a direct American, allied, or false-flagged attack on a tanker carrying Russian oil.
In yesterday’s morning report, I indicated that “the current whereabouts of the [Chinese] warship group has not been reported in the open press.”
The Russian source map is now reporting that the Chinese Navy’s 45th Escort Task Force, comprising the Type-052 destroyer Urumqi, the Type-547 frigate Linyi, and supply ship Dongpinghu were at berth at the Chinese base at Djibouti as of Wednesday, December 20.
The Russian map also reveals that the Iranian vessel MV Behshad is in a standing position in the Red Sea (lead image, top left of map). According to the Russian source, it is operating as an electronic surveillance, command and control centre to monitor friendly state ship movements – Russian, Chinese, Indian – and also hostile vessels of the US, British and French navies, tracking their positions; and relaying the data to Iran and probably to shore positions in Yemen. Although US media and Pentagon statements accuse the Ansar Allah government in Yemen and Houthi forces of acting as Iranian proxies in the war against Israel, there has been no disclosure before now of this vessel in the Red Sea.
According to the western vessel tracking service VesselFinder, the Behshad is a “general cargo ship” flagged by Iran. It reportedly sailed from the port of the Iran Shipbuilding and Offshore Industries Complex (ISOICO) to reach its current position, which VesselFinder confirms in the southern half of the Red Sea as of fifteen minutes ago. The western source reports the vessel is at anchor in 6.5 metres of water.
In the Pentagon announcement of December 18, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin claimed that “Operation Prosperity Guardian is bringing together multiple countries to include the United Kingdom, Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles and Spain, to jointly address security challenges in the southern Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, with the goal of ensuring freedom of navigation for all countries and bolstering regional security and prosperity.” The new Russian intelligence now makes clear that the UK, France and Spain are already in the region, with the US.
After Austin’s statement, his Italian counterpart announced that Italy is dispatching a frigate “to protect the prosperity of trade and guarantee freedom of navigation and international law…to increase the presence in the area in order to create the conditions for stabilization, avoid ecological disasters and also prevent a resumption of the inflationary push.”
The Greek Defense Minister Nikos Dendias followed the Italian to say that Greece too is sending a frigate to join the US operation. Dendias is claiming the reason is that Greece is “the country with the largest ocean-going fleet [and so] has a primary interest in preserving the freedom of maritime zones and protecting the lives of seafarers.” What he means is that the involvement of Greek shipowners in the sanctions-busting Russian oil trade has been so profitable, Dendias wants to protect the Greek tankers and their owners; and at the same time avoid the embarrassment of being so disloyal to the US and European Union sanctions regime.
For the time being, no Russian Navy vessel is reported in the Red Sea area, although reports indicate that the submarine Ufa is heading eastwards across the Mediterranean with a surface support vessel, and is likely to transit the Suez Canal and the Red Sea soon.
The new improved Kilo-class Ufa in St. Petersburg after commissioning in November 2022. It has been assigned to the Pacific Fleet.
For analysis of current Russian operations, plans, and policy, click to read this.
For the full map display, including the Israeli port of Eilat and the Persian Gulf ports and naval bases, click to open for an enlarged view.
The presence of the Republic of Korea (ROK) Navy’s destroyer Yang Man-chun was reported when it left its home port in September to be for a six-month mission to combat piracy and threats against cargo shipments headed to and from Korea. The map reveals it is currently off the Somali coast, near Indian, British, and US Navy vessels, as well as the Japanese Navy’s destroyer, JS Akebono.
This warship has been in “training” with the USS Mason and the Eisenhower carrier squadron, but the Japanese are claiming it is engaged in “maritime security patrols in the GoA [Gulf of Aden], but is not involved in the new Operation Prosperity Guardian.”
The JS Akebono (rear) and the USS Mason operating together in the Gulf of Aden on November 25.
Operationally, US Navy releases indicate that the Japanese and the Korean destroyers are “working in coordination with U.S. Naval Forces Central Command” to combat both Somali pirates and Houthi operations.
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Oh, good. Around thirty surface warships of at least six nations from two most powerful, competing alliances on Earth, plus whatever submarines including the American one that often pairs itself with the American carrier group.
All of this mixed with what I assume are still a large number of merchant ships in one of the world’s busiest straights.
And whatever pirates are stupidly suicidal to try anything as well as Yemen’s partial blockade with its missiles and helicopters, plus whatever pissed off morons wanting to make a statement about something by attacking someone with everything from rowboats to hypersonic missiles. Who might not care that much about whom they kill.
No sired bob. Nothing at all to worry about here.
Well, here’s to hoping that we survive the Second Cold War like we did the first although I must say that from what I remember almost all of the leaders of the first seemed both adults and competent when compared to the second’s. Sigh.
It has not escaped my notice that while all these ships from different navies are sailing around in the Red Sea doing the hokey-pokey right now, that this is distracting away from the genocide taking place in Gaza right now by the Israelis. So this may be the actual intent. You may find that unless somebody does something stupid, that all that will happen is that the Houthis will fire off $4,000 drones which western ships will shoot down with missiles costing 1 to 4 million bucks each – until they go Winchester. And if the US was stupid enough to attack the Houthis, then you would have a barrage of torpedoes, mines, drones and missiles coming the other way. Does the west really want to risk that?
Say, whatever happened to all those Littoral Combat Ships that the US built and which were designed for combat in in coastal waters. Wouldn’t this be the ideal environment for them and a great way to retrieve their reputations? One final note. I see that Russian oil tankers are still being given free passage down the Red Sea. Yes, there may be a false-flagged attack on a tanker carrying Russian oil. But what might happen too is that the US or an allied ship might send troops aboard to take over that Russian ship because of American sanction laws because everybody knows that US laws apply in the Red Sea. They have done it before with Iranian oil tankers so that they could seize that oil and sell it so it may be something that the Russians have prepared for. Bonus points for stupidity if they seize a Russian oil tanker and sail it to Israel to unload there to help the Israeli economy.
> Littoral Combat Ships
The greatest military power in the world built a smallish boat whose engines corrode in seawater, and which gets hull cracks. Lockheed Martin made a boatload of money, though!
[sounds of flapping wings and clucking as yet more chickens come home to roost]
The Royal Navy got that one beat when they built £1 billion warships – the Type 45 destroyers – which break down when they are used in waters warmer than those off the coast of England-
https://www.navaltoday.com/2016/06/08/royal-navys-type-45-destroyers-cannot-handle-warm-waters/
#DoubleLOL
You guys laugh, but when the time comes, I am sure the West will resort to human wave attacks, assisted by propaganda by the world’s best influencers, while claiming that everything is done to reduce casualties.
Human waves? Have a look at the median age of Western countries.
Canada: 41.8
France: 41.7
Germany: 47.8
Italy: 46.5
Poland: 41.9
Spain: 43.9
UK: 40.6
Australia is at 37.5, and the USA at 38.5. Ukraine was at 41.2 just before the war started, and Russia at 40.3.
Which probably means that, absent a truly spectacular demographic transformation, the conflict in Ukraine occurred at the last point where such a major war was humanly feasible in Europe. From now on, it has to be robots, or Third World mercenaries.
I am 60, and I assume I will be considered draft age in the next major conflict based on the Ukrainian example. Especially since I have prior military experience.
If you think about it, filling the meat waves with people who would otherwise be collecting Social Security and Medicare soon makes far more sense than than sending healthy young people of reproductive age.
Perhaps, but there is a difference between sending people to the slaughter, fighting, and fighting with a chance to win.
With 60 years old people, there is no chance of a victory, and there is not even a fight: it is just slaughter. That is not conducive to achieving a favourable outcome in conflicts of an existential nature.
By the way: Palestine/Gaza is 18.0 years, and Yemen 19.8 (last known figures for 2018). Israel is 30.4. Those nations can go on fighting for long.
Must find some nation to fight then with avg age >> 60!
Curious how Israeli median age differs by ethnic groups, though…
I assume the lower birth rate seculars are older… and they’re doing the fighting, no? If more seculars leave israel will be younger but less competent.
Perhaps American boots will replace the seculars going forward.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=17g8B
January 30, 2018
Age dependency ratios for Israel, Switzerland and United States, * 1980-2022
* Older dependents to working age population
Israel’s haredim don’t fight. If you take them from the calculus, the average age will go up a bit. Also the Arab Israelis also won’t be call to fight…
Having huge chunks of a nation’s population either refusing or not even being allowed to serve in any capacity is a bigger problem than age. Most people can think, drive, write, pull a trigger, or push a button even at 80, certainly at 65. They can contribute something. I have even seen very senior seniors do physical heavy work. It is the actual high intensity fighting of modern wars most people simply can’t do. That is a real problem.
If the Haredim will not serve and the Arab Israelis are not allowed, just how united or strong is Israel? Forget being a nation, is it even a country?
Age dependency ratios for the 10 largest economies:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1aLta
January 30, 2018
Age dependency ratios for China, United States, India, Japan and Germany, * 2007-2022
* Older dependents to working age population
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1d7S9
January 30, 2018
Age dependency ratio for Russia, Indonesia, Brazil, United Kingdom and France, * 2007-2022
* Older dependents to working age population
They have all been refitted
They should never have been built with such a massive design flaw in the first place.
Fincantieri Marinette Marine has pretty much shifted into construction of the Constellation frigates. The hull crack issue is in the Austal USA built ships. Not sure about the “corrode in seawater” you cite, I assume a reference to the diesel engine seal issue. There’s also a combining gear bearing design issue. You can thank Rumsfeld and “transformation” for LCS and DDG-1000.
The bigger problem is due to “transformation” we decided we didn’t need to crew warships the way we did for 100+ years.
“Lockheed Martin made a boatload of money …”
My husband drew my attention to the Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl yesterday. Air Force won.
Say, whatever happened to all those Littoral Combat Ships that the US built and which were designed for combat in in coastal waters. Wouldn’t this be the ideal environment for them and a great way to retrieve their reputations?
I know this is Xwitter, but here is a short summary of why the LCS are inherently unsuitable for engagements in the Red Sea against Ansarallah.
I’d say, based on no expertise in naval warfare, that there’s no actual concept of littoral combat ship as such. Littoral combat is the last (and first) defense line of poor country’s navy against projection of power by a stronger navy.
If they could afford it, they would have a navy that could take on the invader further away. But since they don’t, they have small vessels that try to make it as costly as possible for the enemy navy to approach the coast.
Now, it used to be that those smaller vessels were capable of punching way above their weight after introduction of missiles, but as it is with military everywhere, these “missile boats” are getting bigger and bigger by each generation. Instead of being small, fast and bristling with weapons, they have grown to frigate size vessels still with the same 8 missiles, but also with a towed sonar array and anti-sub torpedoes, depth charges and a helicopter hangar.
Well, maybe with the exception of the Chinese Type 22 missile boat. That one still all about get in, release a salvo and get out.
The gun boat diplomacy squadron is cashiered to port
Yemen, the lynchpin of the world!
Move over Constantinople…
Seems like the right time for Zion to do some nuclear bomb tests to see if they also need to do an upgrade, like all the rest idiot nations.
Where’s, who knows any, in Yemen, anyways?!?
World’s Effed
An aspect of the situation involves “Operation Prosperity Guardian is bringing together multiple countries … with the goal of ensuring freedom of navigation for all countries …”. Given the narrowness of transit and the possibility of overlapping territorial land claim, there may not be an international waterway. I don’t say this with exact certainty. In territorial water, Yemen is correct in requiring vessels to identify themselves. This situation may be like the Taiwan Strait where the west claims freedom of transit when it may not exist.
Yes, at the narrowest point the strait is actually internal waters of either Ethiopia, Djibouti or Yemen. Regardless, according to UNCLOS (to which USA is not a signatory!) due to the lack of alternative route a transit right exists for all vessels trough Bab-el-Mandeb.
Although submarines do have to surface and show flag before passing. And being internal waters, the coastal states can set conditions for warships, and if the ships do not comply, they can be asked to leave immediately.
But I’m not an international maritime lawyer, not do I really understand the rules based order, so I’m likely wrong.
From what I read the most notable thing about the “rules based order” is that they are so routinely updated that no one knows what they are and actual laws need not apply. At this point they are just a blizzard of undated memos from off of a yellow sticky pad somewhere down in the bowels of the State Department.
No one knows the rules, and they like it that way.
But what always applies is Barney Fife’s rule No. 1: Obey all rules.
The “rules based order” is Calvinball, with the US-UK elites as Calvin. But an insanely more destructive Calvin.
Rules based order just means that the US makes the rules…and can do whatever it wants
Internal waters are areas landward of the baseline used to establish a country’s coastline. Example, river mouths. Outside the baseline to 12nm is the territorial sea over which the country exercises sovereignty. We did have, back in the 70’s, an attempt by Libya to claim its baseline as running across the Gulf of Sidra, but the US and I don’t think anyone else recognized that claimed baseline. I suppose China would like to declare anything inside the nine dash line as internal waters.
I wonder if operation prosperous garbage, or whatever it is, the goal of which appears too be freedom of navigation, also includes freedom of navigation in the gaza maritime zone….
Austin’s statement – “to protect the prosperity of trade and guarantee freedom of navigation and international law…to increase the presence in the area in order to create the conditions for stabilization, avoid ecological disasters and also prevent a resumption of the inflationary push.”
Do a full reverse and it makes sense:
“to plunder the prosperity of trade of other nations…to increase the presence in the area to create chaos and war, promoted ecological disaster global industry can exploit and also resume inflationary forces on the global population to benefit our sponsors.”
https://www.opensecrets.org/revolving/rev_summary.php?id=82688
Austin earned seven figures from the defense companies.
worth visiting to look at the rocketship ride austins glamorous career has been since 2016
And Pine Island Capital, otherwise known as the Committee to Blow Up the World
There was an article some years ago on War on the Rocks, in which a former US Admiral has put it exactly that way, as in, to resrtict access and shipping and commerce to any enemy of US…
I suspect this is mostly about intelligence-gathering, and keeping an eye on what everybody else is doing. Rules of Engagement (eg how close you are allowed to approach a ship of another nationality) are important here, and everybody will be on their best behaviour.
It seems the Houthis are effective actors. According to Reuters from 12/21/2023, “Israel’s Eilat Port has seen an 85% drop in activity since Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen stepped up attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, the port’s chief executive said on Thursday.”
Yet, the Eilat Port is not nearly as important as Israel’s Mediterranean ports of Haifa and Ashdod. Thus, how much damage can the Houthi militants inflict on Israel?
Recent events and increasing influence of China and Russia in the region have revived the idea of an Israel alternative to the Suez Canal known as the Ben-Gurion Canal: Eurasian Review https://www.eurasiareview.com/17112023-the-ben-gurion-canal-israels-potential-revolutionary-alternative-to-suez-analysis/
Beginning at Eilat in the Red Sea, the Canal’s endpoint will exit in or near Gaza which is another reason Netanyahu would like to eliminate the Palestinians. Though the idea is technically and economically interesting, and potentially superior to Suez, it might easily escalate the existing problems in the region to the breaking point.
Even if that canal existed right now, it would do them no good as they could not have ships get there via the Red Sea.
Imagining here that the setting West believes it cannot not put on a Red Sea parade, because to fail to do so will look “weak.” However if Scott Ritter is right, these forces will be as able to eradicate the Houthis as the Israelis are to wipe out the Amalekites, er, Hamas and Hezbollah. Which would make the West look expensively impotent. Again.
Further, not that it matters, an attack on Yemen for the noble and worthy purpose of Prosperity Guardianship might inconveniently raise the question of why all that pricey gym muscle isn’t being set to work for Palestinian Guardianship. It’s like throwing the book at a jaywalker who’s rushing to help a crime victim while a gang of thieves murderers goes about its business not only unmolested but with free membership to the West’s gym and personal trainers.
–According to the Russian source, it is operating as an electronic surveillance, command and control centre to monitor friendly state ship movements —
Russian source?
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iranian-spy-ship-helps-houthis-direct-attacks-on-red-sea-vessels-d6f7fd406
The US coalition should block all traffic so that either all pass safely or none. If someone wants to pick a fight, there will be a fight.
WSJ is reporting it too. Not sure if they got it from the Russian source.
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iranian-spy-ship-helps-houthis-direct-attacks-on-red-sea-vessels-d6f7fd406
I would think, the US coalition should block all traffic so that either all pass safely or none. If someone wants to pick a fight, there will be a fight.
The big question is how Saudis wants this to end. Doubt they are rooting for the Houthis.
…but fighting the Houghti’s with miilion dollar missiles isn’t going to be effective or cheap. And billion dollar boats floating nearby will soon become fish reefs.
Sunk cost fallacy anyone?
The point is not to fight the Houthis but to blockade the straits for everyone.
Watch inflation soars like crazy. Russian oil, all sorts of goods will now have to take the long way to their destination. The Houthis win either way.
Any escalation in that part of the world would cause inflation and it appears inevitable. Also, if Houthis win they may decide that is it fundamentally unfair that Egypt can charge for Suez and they can’t charge for Bab el-Mandeb.
Maybe the Saudi’s are actually rooting for the Houthi’s now that the Saudi’s and Iranians are on friendlier terms. Israel and U.S. with Palestinian blood on their hands are helping to unite the Arab world, yes?
As for the Saudi-Yemen conflict, maybe this was mostly a U.S.-Iran proxy war we convinced the Saudi’s to front for us?
The significance of China’s port at Djibouti is now also much clearer. It helps explain why the Saudi-Iran rapprochement caused Blinken and Netanyahu to go berserk, and try emergency CPR with a “deal”. And why Oct. 7 happened to stop that deal.
Did the Pentagon-CIA-NSA-Mossad see how these moves on the chessboard would culminate? If they didn’t (or not until it was too late) that’s another fatal intelligence failure by the U.S. and Mossad (and EU intelligence services?) on top of all the others.
With Iran controlling the traffic, Saudi’s future is very uncertain.
Saudis are not going to take one for Americans, let alone Israelis. They certainly do not like Yemenis, but they also know this isn’t the time to throw tantrums.
Right, they will probably go home with whoever wins the fight. A lot at stake here. WW3?
Seems to me the role of the Saudis in this crisis is being ignored.
My wager is that they will own a large chunk of Yemen when the dust settles and the bodies are counted.
Things seem fluid, MoA comments indicate some reports that Spain and Italy have dropped out of the coalition of the unwilling due to refusing to be under US command- only NATO command will do.
(There is a link on X but I’m not sure how good it is so will leave it as an exercise to the reader to see the comments on MoA latest Palestinian thread.)
Not sure how to square that with what Helmer is reporting. Perhaps Fog-o-war or maybe Foghorn Leghorn is running the US coalition.
Thanks for the update. I am just loving this updated version of the little guys throwing their wooden shoes into the gears of international trade. This whole Operation Protection of the Garden thing must be immensely satisfying for the Houthis, and they are certainly getting a bang for their buck.
I laughed out loud when I saw this yesterday on Firstpost, a short (5 min.) from Indian news. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7DGsV9ibiqw
They are saying that yes, Austrailia is supporting the Pentagon’s Red Sea Coalition, and is sending 11 troops (no ships). So count them in the “coalition”. Oh, and the Netherlands has joined in with 2 soldiers. Yes, two, well trained, well armed expert troops. The “coalition” is getting larger and larger by the percentage point.
During the first cold war Yemen used to be called The 16th Republic of USSR. Russia does have an influence in this particular hood. It is a perfect place for a mischief or humiliating defeat of an empire. Moreover, the non “western world” compliant ships have no issue navigating Red Sea and have price/cost advantage over the “rules based” ships – from a distance, it looks like a sanctions against nato + friends alliance. We are witnessing a bifurcation of the shipping market, shippers have a choice and our Western shipping giants are loosing their market share. I would imagine the unhappy shareholders of Maersk, ZIM & others will communicate their dissatisfaction to our overlords. Quoting Douglas Macgregor : make peace you fools!
This is interesting:
“Iran threatens to close Mediterranean Sea citing US ‘crimes’ in Gaza
They shall soon await the closure of the Mediterranean Sea, (the Strait of) Gibraltar and other waterways,” state media Tasnim quoted Iranian Brig. Gen. Mohammad Reza Naqdi as saying….Naqdi referenced attacks on Gibraltar would be an escalation of Red Sea attacks on shipping from Houthi rebels in Yemen.”
https://thehill.com/policy/international/4375103-iran-threatens-to-close-mediterranean-sea-amid-war-gaza/
I had heard that Algeria had declared war on Israel a few weeks ago. If there are any Iran backed groups there, like the Houthis in Yemen, this could potentially be a very real escalation.
I think the axis of resistance would use Polisario Front from Westarn Sahara territory as a proxy to launch armed drones near the Strait of Gibraltar. It looks like an escalation against the rules based western world.
Thank you. I had never heard of them, and just read their Wiki. This would tend to support your theory:
“…only Algeria and Libya have, at different times, given any significant support to Polisario. Iran recognized the SADR in 1980, Mauritania had recognized the SADR in 1984, and Syria and South Yemen had supported the Polisario position on the conflict when they were all members of the Front of Refusal.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polisario_Front
What with all of the wars in that area there should be no lack of arms. Anything unusual would have been submerged in the tsunami of armaments already flowing there. This sounds very credible, and they could attack from Morocco all the way into Libya; plenty of room to maneuver.
Please notice that almost all of the Northern coast of Africa is aligned with the axis of resistance. During the anti-France coup in Niger the French military had to fly around Africa, nobody would let the cross their air space. Our overlords don’t know the geography.
On reflection, so much of the EU’s future oil and gas supplies are predicated on getting pipelines from Northern Africa now that I have to wonder if they would not make prime targets as well. Holding that infrastructure hostage could work in the same way that the Houthi game plan presently does.
This seems to be accelerating fast. This morning, news of a drone attack southwest of India, well into the Indian Ocean, a damn long ways from the Yemen choke points at the south of the red Sea. Also this morning some reports of gesturing and posturing at the Straits of Gibraltar, another barrow choke point, just as clogged with ships as anywhere on earth. Reports, as of yet, but no drone attacks. Nothing yet about the Strait of Hormuz entering the Persian Gulf.
What will be the impact if we wake up Christmas Eve to find attacks at all these points at the same time? What do you think ships will do? How will this new Coalition of the Willing look?
If the point of all this is to keep increasing the pressure on Israel to cease in Gaza, imagine the pressures on the Western countries if suddenly the ENTIRE swath of trade routes from Gibraltar to India and the Persian Gulf is threatened by attacks, from actors this Coalition is obviously unable to prevent?
There have been some hits again and again at the south Red Sea. Now another hit off India. Is this a ramping up? A steady raising of the pressure parallel to the UN’s inability to come up with real pressure to stop the Gaza exercise?
The truth here is that three of the narrowest critical trade route straits in the world – Gibraltar, Bar el Mandeb, and Hormuz (Malacca of another, again surrounded by Islamic nations, leading to Singapore) – could all suddenly see such asymmetrical attacks, proving the Coalition useless, and entirely upsetting world trade.
What then?
Malaysia initially said they were going to close the straits of Malacca, but appear to have relented to the degree that only Israeli flagged ships cannot dock there. Were Indonesia to join them in closure of the straits that would take a lot of strain off of China over Taiwan, forcing the fleet over in the Philippines to relocate.
China must be giggling madly right about now.
Unclear who took responsibility for the attack.
An Israeli affiliated ship, reportedly bound for Israel, was just attacked in the Indian ocean.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uQdH7oGp45o
I love the huge “No Smoking” sign on the bridge. Blowback from Indian participation in Project Garden Protection? This is wild!
India isn’t a participant and the Modi govt has tempered it’s pro Israel stance, at least for now. They learned their lesson from the prior fiasco when a BJP spokesperson insulted Muhammad. Muslim states will give them some leeway but push too much and there will be repercussions.
Unclear who took responsibility for the attack.
Helmer is out over his skis in a few of his assertions about Russian media publishing info first here, which is not unusual for him. The info is correct, he’s just trying too hard to play up Russian intel.
This particularly –
As I posted in water cooler yesterday, here’s a thread about the deployment of the Behsad in 2021, and it’s been squatted there since to try and help Iranian tankers avoid pesky Israeli/American pirates.
https://twitter.com/mhmiranusa/status/1423731701310701568
A tiny little thing that May seem Off topic but IS I believe nonetheless probably very much related.
I was totally unsurprised today by reading online in german and austrian media about intelligence services supposedly having heard about jihadi terrorists supposedly planning attacks on churches in both countries.
Of course there has been quite a bit of rumor mongering in that vein recently, including attempts to directly link this supposed threat to Hamas.
No doubt something like this is happening or beginning to happen in other countries as well and the likelihood of false flag attacks is a regular topic here.
Well, the obvious scaremongering that we probably can safely assume will only increase for the duration of this entire crisis in the Middle East and now the shipping lanes might be Just that, scaremongering, or potentially a prelude to such false flag attacks.
We obviously can see who would Profit from such attacks and from renewed hyping up of an Islamic terrorist threat in Europe or elsewhere in the collective West right at a point when mot only world opinion finally rallies around Palestine’s cause (and ever so slowly there is starting to be more than just favorable opinion) but when to a degree unthinkable twenty years ago people, especially young people in the West are sympathizing with Muslims and viewing islamic resistance as justified and plucky, even gallant freedomfighters against colonial tyranny instead of as evil, barbaric terrorists.
Now, the Al Quaeda and ISIS types that indeed may fit in the later category haven’t magically disappeared, but of course we also know who they have a long history of working with and rendering mercenary services for.
It is certainly hard to imagine any halfway intelligent muslim paramilitary group that is actually genuinely concerned about the suffering of muslim people under western imperialism would think of endangering this (despite the supremely tragic circumstances) very good thing they got going and risking to shore up the rapidly crumbling support for Israel and it’s policies, even in the very heart of the West, by doing something as insanely stupid as attacking civilians and churches in european or other western countries.
Cui bono points in a completely different direction.
But obviously that doesn’t mean that (if they don’t use their own goons) Israel and the US couldn’t re-activate some good, old “moderate rebel” friends of their’s.