Links 1/4/2024

Elephant calf separated from herd in India is reunited with mother Guardian

A Year in Crises Phenomenal World. Commentary:

Ballot power: 2024 elections could steer global relations for years to come South China Morning Post

Legitimacy in the Era of Uncertainty Russia in Global Affairs

The Specter of Nationalism Foreign Policy. Nationalism filed under “identity politics.”

My experience with geopolitics of knowledge in political philosophy so far Crooked Timber

Climate

Great Lakes start 2024 with smallest amount of ice in at least 50 years WaPo

The False Link Between Climate Change and Mass Migration Persuasion

Satellite mapping reveals extensive industrial activity at sea Nature. ” We find that 72–76% of the world’s industrial fishing vessels are not publicly tracked, with much of that fishing taking place around South Asia, Southeast Asia and Africa. We also find that 21–30% of transport and energy vessel activity is missing from public tracking systems.”

The effects of air pollution, meteorological parameters, and climate change on COVID-19 comorbidity and health disparities: A systematic review Environmental Chemistry and Ecotoxicology

#COVID19

Invivyd submits emergency use request for COVID preventive CIDRAP

Inferring Incidence of Unreported SARS-CoV-2 Infections Using Seroprevalence of Open Reading Frame 8 Antigen, Hong Kong Emerging Infectious Diseases, CDC. The Abstract: “We tested seroprevalence of open reading frame 8 antigens to infer the number of unrecognized SARS-CoV-2 Omicron infections in Hong Kong during 2022. We estimate 33.6% of the population was infected, 72.1% asymptomatically. Surveillance and control activities during large-scale outbreaks should account for potentially substantial undercounts.”

The Great Abdication: Why No One Can Be Bothered Anymore Jessica Wildfire, OK Doomer

What COVID diaries have in common with Samuel Pepys’ 17th-century plague diaries Medical Xpress

China?

What Will It Take for China’s GDP to Grow at 4–5 Percent Over the Next Decade? Michael Pettis, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

China’s services sector picks up pace on optimism for economic recovery FT

China, in search of new growth drivers, considers urban residency reforms South China Morning Post. The hukuo system.

How will Beijing respond to Manila’s plans to build on South China Sea reef? Channel News Asia

Unraveling the Mongolian Arc: a Field Survey and Spatial Investigation of a Previously Unexplored Wall System in Eastern Mongolia Journal of Field Archeology

Japan

Updates on the Haneda Airport Collision (info for email readers). James Fallows, Breaking the News. Excellent round-up.

India

Six Key Developments After Hindenburg’s Report in 2023: From Vinod Adani to Pegasus Targeting on Reporter The Wire

Bangladesh court sentences Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus to 6 months in jail for violating labor laws CBS

Syraqistan

Container shipping rates spike as Red Sea crisis draws first blood Hellenic Shipping News

Houthi attacks in Red Sea ‘must stop,’ says UN Anadolu Agency

Stavridis: Hit the Houthis And Iran Where It Counts Bloomberg. Former NATO chief.

* * *

Education Department official resigns over Biden administration’s approach to Israel-Hamas war CNN

Biden campaign staffers issue letter protesting Israel-Hamas war, call for cease-fire, end of aid to Israel FOX

Senate Democrats scoff at Biden’s Israel arms sale The Hill

Senators head to Israel for planned meeting with Netanyahu Politico

* * *

Israeli officials said in talks with Congo, others on taking in Gaza emigrants Times of Israel (via Moon). “Emigrants.” Let me know how that works out:

State Department: US ‘not seeing any acts that constitute genocide’ in Gaza Anadolu Agency

Family of key case in New York Times October 7 sexual violence report renounces story, says reporters manipulated them Mondoweiss

The Two Kooks who Nationalized Judaism Ilan Pape, Palestinian Chronicle

* * *

Who were the Hamas officials killed in Beirut? Al Jazeera

European Disunion

Italian hospitals collapse: Over 1,100 patients waiting to be admitted in Rome EuroNews. Odd. I wonder why?

Dear Old Blighty

Maladaptation has left the Conservatives drifting FT

New Not-So-Cold War

US State Department denies change of strategy in supporting Ukraine in war Ukrainska Pravda

Russia, Ukraine exchange hundreds of prisoners in largest release of war Al Jazeera

Ukraine May Have to Accept a Cease-Fire WSJ. If one is on offer.

‘It’s State Propaganda’: Ukrainians Shun TV News as War Drags on NYT

Ukraine’s F-16 Program Receives New Boost Newsweek

Su-57 Production Surging to Over 20 Aircraft in 2024: Delivery Rate to Surpass All Other Russian Fighters Military Watch. Back in action, probably after an ISP issue.

South of the Border

Argentina court suspends Milei’s ‘mega-decree’ labor law reforms France24

2024

Kamala Harris Makes Few Extra Bucks House-Sitting For Bidens The Onion

Democrats en Déshabillé

Disabled Outrage and #PodSaveJon Alice Wong, Disability Visibility Project. Commentary:

Digital Watch

Here’s a list of thousands of artists Midjourney’s AI is ripping off, creatives claim The Register

23andMe tells victims it’s their fault that their data was breached TechCrunch

Americans Are Canceling More of Their Streaming Services WSJ

Fa-Fa-Fa-Fa-Fashion

Behind Cheap Stuff From Shein and Temu: A Hard Bargain With Suppliers WSJ

Supply Chain

How EVs are upending the 100-year-old auto supply chain CNBC

Science Is Popping

Hmm:

Gunz

Yikes:

The Jackpot

The next pandemic could hit global crop supplies The Economist

The Dark Side of Anti-Money Laundering: Mitigating the Unintended Consequences of Financial Action Task Force Standards (PDF) Journal of Economic Criminology

Class Warfare

First Avenue Workers’ Victory: Another Win for Union and Worker Center Collaborations Exposed by CMD

Commercial determinants of cancer The Lancet

Hard-up this holiday? Amazon flyer tells workers to ask company mascot for help Guardian

So you wanna de-bog yourself Experimental History

Chartbook 258 War, peace and the return of history in 2023 Adam Tooze, Chartbook

Antidote du jour (via):

See yesterday’s Links and Antidote du Jour here.

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About Lambert Strether

Readers, I have had a correspondent characterize my views as realistic cynical. Let me briefly explain them. I believe in universal programs that provide concrete material benefits, especially to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime example, but tuition-free college and a Post Office Bank also fall under this heading. So do a Jobs Guarantee and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can deliver on such programs, because the two are different flavors of neoliberalism (“Because markets”). I don’t much care about the “ism” that delivers the benefits, although whichever one does have to put common humanity first, as opposed to markets. Could be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don’t much care, as long as the benefits are delivered. To me, the key issue — and this is why Medicare for All is always first with me — is the tens of thousands of excess “deaths from despair,” as described by the Case-Deaton study, and other recent studies. That enormous body count makes Medicare for All, at the very least, a moral and strategic imperative. And that level of suffering and organic damage makes the concerns of identity politics — even the worthy fight to help the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton’s wars created — bright shiny objects by comparison. Hence my frustration with the news flow — currently in my view the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the other by out-of-power liberals and their allies in the State and in the press — a news flow that constantly forces me to focus on matters that I regard as of secondary importance to the excess deaths. What kind of political economy is it that halts or even reverses the increases in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I am also very hopeful that the continuing destruction of both party establishments will open the space for voices supporting programs similar to those I have listed; let’s call such voices “the left.” Volatility creates opportunity, especially if the Democrat establishment, which puts markets first and opposes all such programs, isn’t allowed to get back into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I love the tactical level, and secretly love even the horse race, since I’ve been blogging about it daily for fourteen years, but everything I write has this perspective at the back of it.

104 comments

  1. Antifa

    WHAT’S YOURS IS MINE
    (melody borrowed from Auld Lang Syne — a traditional Scottish hymn as performed by The Irish Rovers)

    The West Bank and Jerusalem
    By Zionist design
    Will become Greater Israel
    What’s yours is now mine

    What’s yours is now mine, my dear
    What’s yours is now mine
    Your property is my asset
    What’s yours is now mine

    When we can steal what can’t be bought
    It puts you in a bind
    If you resist you will be shot
    What’s yours is now mine

    What’s yours is now mine, my dear
    What’s yours is now mine
    It’s burglary by bayonet
    What’s yours is now mine

    We don’t respond to Kings or Popes
    The are but swine
    Once Bibi said, ‘The game’s afoot’
    What’s yours is now mine

    What’s yours is now mine, my dear
    What’s yours is now mine
    Now comes your season of regret
    What’s yours is now mine

    The ultra-right are Seraphim
    Who grant us Palestine
    We’ll raze Al-Aqsa to the floor
    What’s yours is now mine

    What’s yours is now mine, my dear
    What’s yours is now mine
    How many wars can we beget?
    What’s yours is now mine

    While some will call this thievery
    And some say genocide
    We simply say, ‘the Holocaust’
    And what’s yours is now mine

    1. Jeff W

      “Auld Lang Syne — a traditional Scottish hymn as performed by The Irish Rovers”

      I would have guessed the pre-1948 애국가 [Aegukga, literally “Patriotic Song”], national anthem of Korea (and the government-in-exile during the occupation by Japan) but that’s just me, I suppose.

  2. The Rev Kev

    “Houthi attacks in Red Sea ‘must stop,’ says UN”

    Ansarallah: ‘Look UN, just tell Israel to call off their genocidal campaign in Gaza and we will stand down.’

    UN: ‘We can’t. They’re not even listening to us.’

    Ansarallah: ‘Well in that case neither are we.’

  3. John

    The state department has seen no acts that would constitute genocide and South Africa is not helping things by accusing Israel in the ICJ. What would constitute genocide in the eyes of the state department?

    In February 1945 the US and UK bombed the city of Dresden. It was as undefended against air attack as was Gaza. That bombing was “classified” for years. I first learned of the classification when I read Kurt Vonnegut’s ‘Slaughter House Five’. I looked in my 1956 Encyclopedia Britannica and sure enough nothing about the bombing of Dresden. Why hide it? Shame? I doubt that. Showering bombs on the defenseless looked bad, even in the waning days of a vicious war. More likely. You see what you want to see. There really was a man behind the curtain.

    Must one be a lawyer to parse the meaning of the genocide convention and apply it to the last three months of Israeli action in Gaza? Oh no, Israel does not want to force the people of of Gaza, but they have bombed much of it flat, continue to bomb and shell while calling for “voluntary migration.” The words of government ministers, the words of Ben Gurion many years ago to the effect that it was all about the land … not the land and the people … just the land. If the Palestinians displaced in 1948 left willingly, why is that displacement called the nakba and why is there on going agitation for “the right of return.”

    There is a great unwillingness here to distinguish s— from shinola in my view, but then I am not a diplomat and I guess I am missing the greater geopolitical significance, and yes that is sarcasm.

    1. mrsyk

      Indeed. How about those “scoffing senate democrats” manufacturing concern about Biden end-running them on aid for Israel. I’ll bet you a can of Shinola that, if their was no end-run option, these very same hand wringing guardians of morality would be lining up to spit-shine Netanyahu’s loafers.

      1. Dr. John Carpenter

        Biden better watch out. That scoffing could lead to strongly worded letters, disproving tweets and heck, there’s still plenty of time to whip up an outfit for the MET Galla.

      2. Feral Finster

        Or if Team R were in the White House, they’d suddenly develop an abiding concern for human rights.

        But once Team D was back in charge at State, that concern would mysteriously disappear.

        See, e.g., Yemen.

    2. k

      ….On Vonnegut – finishing “Pity the Reader: On Writing With Style” by Kurt Vonnegut Jr. and Suzanne McConnell – a must read for Vonnegut fans.

    3. Katniss Everdeen

      What else can the “state department” say?

      The u.s. is supplying the bombs and, by international law, is complicit in the genocide, to the extent that any such “laws” apply to the u.s., which is to say not at all.

      Still, the prudent course is to never admit to anything, just in case things change in the future.

      And just by the way, the u.s. southern border is “secure.” There is no chaos there.

      1. Kouros

        there is a separate link today from REL, which states something like this:

        “resentment [in the Global South] over perceived Western hypocrisy”…

        Actions have bigger consequences than words…

    4. vidimi

      “What would constitute genocide in the eyes of the state department?”

      removing children from a warzone. But it depends on who does it. If Israeli soldiers steal palestinian babies from Gaza, that’s ok. Especially if they use them for target practice.

    5. Vandemonian

      Maybe, just maybe, labelling Israel’s actions in Gaza ‘genocide’ might bring up old questions about what happened to the US’s First Nations communities*. Trail of Tears, anyone?

      *…and Australia’s too, for that matter.

      1. Offtrail

        Yes, let’s bring that up and deflect attention from what’s happening now in front of our eyes.

        1. Lefty Godot

          Righting historical wrongs is always more attractive than dealing with current ones. But, just think, in another century or two any descendants of the few surviving Palestinians will be able to demand reparations and have the future PMC on their side. So it all works out. /s

          1. The Rev Kev

            You mean that they will return to their Promised Land and become Settlers who will practice apartheid against the local Israelites? That would make a funny film that.

    6. Mark Gisleson

      Not sure when it began but Israel and the old Apartheid regime in South Africa were close collaborators in science, trade and politics as both nations were seen as global pariahs for much the same reasons. There is literally no country on earth (other than the USA) that can build a stronger case against Israel’s actions in Gaza. The current South African government undoubtedly has filing cabinets filled with Apartheid-era government documentation related to the development and evolution of Apartheid policies in both South Africa and Israel.

      There was also extensive real time news media documentation of Apartheid era South Africa’s very close ties with Israel. It would be interesting to know just how many former South Africans emmigrated to Israel when Apartheid ended in 1994. Sadly it’s Wikipedia, but here’s a brief history of South African Apartheid being compared to Israeli Apartheid.

      1. GC54

        Cooperation culminated in the Vela-satellite detected Israel/SA nuclear atmospheric test during Carter administration. Either fission artillery shell or fission trigger for Israeli fusion bomb.

        1. NYMutza

          I recall that way back when. Two flashes were detected which indicates a thermonuclear detonation as the first flash is the fission trigger, with the second flash the fusion reaction.

      2. CA

        https://www.nytimes.com/1999/10/20/world/mandela-visits-israel-with-praise-but-rifts-linger.html

        October 20, 1999

        Mandela Visits Israel With Praise but Rifts Linger
        By William A. Orme Jr.

        It was a trip intended to heal old wounds, and as Nelson Mandela concluded his first visit to Israel today, he took pains to praise ”my friends” — Prime Minister Ehud Barak and President Ezer Weisman — for their regional peacemaking efforts and the ”warmth” of their reception.

        The 81-year-old South African leader called Mr. Barak ”a man of vision” for his pursuit of a settlement with Syria. And Mr. Mandela made it clear that he understands Israel’s need ”for Arab recognition of its existence within secure boundaries.” Without such recognition a regional armistice would be ”foolhardy,” he said.

        Yet the visit was marked by continuing undercurrents of distrust between Mr. Mandela, a staunch champion of the Palestinian cause, and a country that once helped arm the apartheid Government that Mr. Mandela drove out of power.

        Before traveling on to Gaza for an afternoon meeting with another ”good friend” — Yasir Arafat, the Palestinian leader — Mr. Mandela reiterated his unwavering opposition to Israeli control of Gaza, the West Bank, the Golan Heights and southern Lebanon.

        ”Talk of peace will remain hollow if Israel continues to occupy Arab territories,” he said, sitting at a conference table in Israel’s Foreign Ministry, where such sentiments are rarely heard. ”I understand completely well why Israel occupies these lands. There was a war. But if there is going to be peace, there must be complete withdrawal from all of these areas.”

        And, leaving little doubt about his lingering resentment of Israel’s diplomatic and military ties to his former jailers, he tartly noted that upon his release from prison in 1990, he received invitations to visit ”almost every country in the world, except Israel.” …

    7. Feral Finster

      “Genocide” = “anything that a country we don’t like does”

      “Not genocide” = “any act of mass murder by us or our pets”

      Easy peasy.

      1. ChrisFromGA

        That’s a pretty awesome summary, and it would almost fit on a bumper sticker on a Mercedes driven by Raytheon exec as he tools around the beltway.

      2. Lefty Godot

        It’s like “allegations of election fraud” meaning “what we say any time the side we want doesn’t win”. Trump just picked up on the idea that our State Department has been utilizing for years regarding elections in other countries.

    8. Chromex

      Lost in the middle east focus is the US use of the term against China. I refer to the so-called Uygher “genocide” the US accuses China of committing. There is little to no evidence ( the US relies on the “research” of Adrian Zentz, a virulent anti-communist and author of a book that foretells the coming “rapture” which has been analyzed and found wanting.
      This does not mean that the government of China, or the Uyghers have been good little girls and boys. It does mean, for me, that I cannot take with a straight face, faux US concern about alleged ” genocides” against Muslim populations that happen to be by countries the US is hostile to while supporting an actual genocide against Muslims- committed by a US ally with US weapons and full US support- that is observed by the world .
      It is like listening to Blinken prattle on about “press freedoms” while continuing the Trump persecution of Assange.

      1. CA

        https://english.news.cn/20240103/e203a6199a38412da208c66e3e2de978/c.html

        January 3, 2024

        Xinjiang’s Urumqi sees record number of tourists in 2023

        URUMQI — Urumqi, capital of northwest China’s Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, welcomed a record-breaking 100 million visitors in 2023, local authorities have revealed.

        According to data from the municipal culture and tourism bureau, the city raked in over 100 billion yuan (about 14 billion U.S. dollars) in tourism revenue last year, marking a historic milestone.

        The past year witnessed the establishment of 41 new homestays in Urumqi, bringing the total to 324. The city hosted more than 12,000 cultural activities and introduced hundreds of shows, including concerts, dance dramas and children’s plays, said Hai Yan, an official with the bureau.

        These efforts, coupled with the development of a comprehensive transportation network, including highways, railways and airports, have facilitated convenient travel and efficient logistics.

        In 2023, an increasing number of Chinese cities have joined the trend of creating distinctive “city name cards.” They are capitalizing on local cultures to catalyze the revival of the local tourism market and foster economic development.

        Urumqi remains dedicated to showcasing its distinctive charm to visitors, whether it be through enchanting scenery, cultural diversity or unique cuisine.

        “The sunlight at the ski resorts is amazing!” said Meng Jia, a skiing enthusiast from the southern Chinese city of Guangzhou. “The homestays in the Nanshan scenic spot of Urumqi are very pleasant. It’s delightful to stay here and enjoy skiing.”

        Beijing resident Wang Jing has been on several business trips to Xinjiang. “Touring Urumqi, I immersed myself in the folk customs and culture of various ethnic groups,” she said. “I really like it.”

        1. NYMutza

          Over the past few years I have met some Uygur people who migrated to the US. Not a single one mentioned the abuses that the Chinese government is accused of doing to the ethnic Uygurs. None of them said that they were mistreated. They immigrated to the US for the same reason most immigrants come to the US – more and better opportunities. Whether these opportunities actually materialize is a different matter.

          1. Not Bob

            I have worked with a Uighur friend quite closely over the past few years. He definitely doesn’t like the cops in Urumqi, and has stories of both him and his father copping abuse from authorities. However, for the most part this is no worse than the standard “small minds abusing power” crap that happens at the lower levels everywhere in sub-tier 1 China, and he’d be the first to reject any claim of genocide. It’s definitely more garden variety Islamophobia from his point of view.

      2. Lefty Godot

        I wish someone would compare and contrast China’s treatment of the Uyghur population with the US treatment of Black Americans, especially with reference to the latter’s disproportionate membership in the largest prison population in the world.

    9. lyman alpha blob

      The state department has become very adept at not-seeing all kinds of things that are obvious to the casual observer, including actual nazis.

      The link from Varoufakis the other day where he recounted the fascist military junta that took control of Greece with US support back in the 1960s (something most USians are not aware of, surprise surprise) was a good reminder of just how often the US has supported far right fascist governments. When you really start looking at US history, it starts to become clear that rather than having any real ideological beef with fascists, the US only stopped supporting them for a brief few years in the 1940s when their crimes against humanity became impossible to ignore, and welcomed them right back into the fold again once Adolf was out of the picture. 1941-1945 was the anomaly is US foreign policy, not the rule.

      1. Daniil Adamov

        “the US only stopped supporting them for a brief few years in the 1940s when their crimes against humanity became impossible to ignore”

        It is important to remember that this was really not the reason why the US – or Britain, or France, or the Soviet Union – fought the Nazis. They fought them because they began to see them as a genuine threat. The mini-Nazis of later years were nowhere near as threatening, so could be used again in a pinch. If American foreign policy was ever driven by opposition to obvious crimes against humanity, the world would look very different. For that matter, if this had been a major consideration in WW2, their handling of the Holocaust and Jewish refugees would have been different.

          1. Daniil Adamov

            The French declared war first – the Nazis invaded later. The Soviets fought the Nazis because they were invaded. But that is really what I mean – in all cases, the Allies didn’t fight the Nazis to punish their crimes against humanity. They fought them because the Nazis posed a threat to them. If they had only posed a threat to German undesirables, no one would have fought them over that.

          2. Roger Boyd

            Nope, they declared war on Germany after the invasion of Poland. By then it had become obvious that the Germans were a threat to France and the UK, rather than could be simply redirected to attack the Soviet Union.

        1. CA

          https://www.nytimes.com/1969/12/09/archives/screen-greek-symbols-costagavras-directs-z-topical-drama.html

          December 9, 1969

          Greek Symbols; Costa-Gavras Directs ‘Z’, Topical Drama
          By Vincent Canby

          COSTA-GAVRAS’S “Z,” the French film that won the Jury Prize (in effect, the third prize) at this year’s Cannes Festival, is an immensely entertaining movie — a topical melodrama that manipulates our emotional responses and appeals to our best prejudices in such satisfying ways that it is likely to be mistaken as a work of fine — rather than popular — movie art…

    10. Aurelien

      The problem is with the Convention itself, which from the beginning was mired in the political struggles of the early Cold War, and supported very strongly by wealthy right-wing nationalist exiles looking to find propaganda weapons to use against the Soviet Union for forced movements of populations after 1945. (Peter Novick has written a good book on this.) It was never intended to be operationalised, except for propaganda purposes, and amounts in practice to a Thought Crime: what matters is not what actually happens on the ground, but what the intent of the perpetrator can be shown to be, to a criminal standard of proof. The popular idea that genocide means “lots of dead people” is, unfortunately, quite wrong.

      A statement like “Israel is guilty of genocide in Gaza” means nothing, because genocide is a criminal act, and can only be committed by individuals, not states. The most you could say is something contorted like “events are alleged to be occurring in Gaza which, if substantiated, and proven to criminal standards to have happened and to be the deliberately intended acts of individuals, and if they occur on a wide and systematic enough scale, and if there is evidence to a criminal standard of proof that they were deliberately intended to destroy the Palestinian population in whole or in part, and if they can be attributed to individuals with evidence amounting to a criminal standard of proof then you could launch an investigation.” You’d have to show that the Palestinians are a “religious, racial, national or ethnic group” of course, and since the discovery of DNA, at least two of these terms are effectively meaningless.

      It’s a shame that the Convention was ever weaponised in this way, the more so because the (few) convictions for genocide that have ever resulted have been at the cost of ignoring what the Convention says, and just making stuff up.

    11. Es s Ce tera

      The US will never recognize ANY acts as genocide, regardless, because the US is also the only country in the world to have nuked two cities of mostly noncombatants, unnecessarily too. Because of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, any definition would mean conceding the US has met the definition of committed genocide. And not just those two, the civilian death toll in Iraq was almost 500,000 people the last I heard.

      So any definition of genocide will need to be agreed upon by the rest of the world without US involvement, the US will always interfere with any attempt at a clear agreement or definition. It’s like having Hitler at the table while trying to reach consensus on genocide or holocaust.

  4. ChrisFromGA

    Looks like operation Prosperity Guardian is more like operation fail-o-rama. From Seeking Alpha:

    Rates for shipments from Asia to North America’s East Coast surged 55% to $3,900 per 40-ft. container, and West Coast prices soared 63% to more than $2,700 ahead of expected cargo diversions to avoid Red Sea-related issues, Freightos said.

    Given the delays in shipping, plus lag effects, I wonder if this hits the economy right around spring or early summer time. It seems that during the pandemic, the shortages didn’t really hit until the re-openings in 2021 but in this case, unlike 2020, there is plenty of demand and supply shortages or huge price increases passed along to consumers could mean that you’d better buy that fridge NOW!

    Also, this may be a real-world test if all those supply lines really got diversified post-COVID, or if the pigmen got greedy again and went with JIT shipping and fragility to put profits first.

    1. ChrisRUEcon

      > Given the delays in shipping, plus lag effects, I wonder if this hits the economy right around spring or early summer time

      … just in time for the US election home stretch!

      Another millstone around team Scranton’s neck if it comes to pass. Nice job, #JO3yNoRD5tre4M

      1. ChrisFromGA

        Spring or summer is when the Wall St. dolts expect the Fed to start cutting rates, so we have that to look forward to. Fed rate cuts into the face of massive shipping costs being passed through to consumers, and appliances like dishwashers and fridges becoming unobtanium again.

  5. Dissident Dreamer

    Dershowitz rehearses his defence of Israel at the ICJ in Compact

    Notably missing:
    That Gaza and the West Bank are occupied territory.
    The targeting of hospitals, schools, mosques, bakeries, water and fuel storage.
    The targeting of doctors, nurses, UN workers and journalists.
    The blockade on food, water, medicine and fuel.
    The definition of Genocide in international law.
    The overt calls for Genocide and Ethnic Cleansing by members of the Israeli government.

    He says it can’t be genocide because there are no concentration camps or gas chambers.

    He says it can’t be genocide because then Hiroshima, Dresden, Iraq and Afghanistan would also be. So…?

    He says, without evidence that at least a third of the dead have been combatants.

    Netanyahu and Biden will be hoping he does better on the day.

      1. Dissident Dreamer

        What a revolting person he is.

        Forbes reports that according to the documents, “One such powerful individual that Epstein forced then-minor Jane Doe #3 to have sexual relations with was former Harvard Law Professor Alan Dershowitz, a close friend of Epstein’s and well-known criminal defense attorney. Epstein required Jane Doe #3 to have sexual relations with Dershowitz on numerous occasions while she was a minor, not only in Florida but also on private planes, in New York, New Mexico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.”

        His reply? – Why don’t these MeToo people go after Hamas?

  6. The Rev Kev

    “Senators head to Israel for planned meeting with Netanyahu’

    ‘(Kirsten Gillibrand) suggested that building on the Abraham Accords, a series of agreements struck in 2020 to allow diplomatic relations between Israel and certain Arab countries, would create more partners to defeat Iran and its allies in the Middle East. And then “you’d have the outlines of a path to peace and an ability to rebuild a second state a Palestinian state.” ‘

    Nobody is that stupid and deluded so here she is just lying her face off. How many Arab countries will want to sign an accord with a state that is committing genocide on fellow Arabs? And Israel will never allow a Palestinian State which is why over the decades that have financed terrorist groups to discredit this idea. In reality a Palestinian State is the only way forward but Israel is too busy cutting off the limb that they are sitting on to realize it.

    1. mrsyk

      Glad to see Gillibrand is building another “path to peace”, heh heh. Is “peace” is the pet name of her bank account?

    2. Pat

      So nice to see both of NY’s Senators showing their deficiencies in today’s links.

      First Schumer backs Biden in by passing Congress to send arms to Israel while a section of his majority are screaming about it. But then we get Gillibrand lying about things and pretending to be a great peace maker leading a whopping four Senators to hear Israel’s version.

      Meanwhile the fallout of Congress’ lack of a real migration policy continues and spreads. The saga in their supposed area of interest has a new twist. After Adams tried to stop unannounced buses the buses are dropping off hundreds of migrants in NJ cities in the middle of the night. These drop offs are planned and coincide with public transportation to NYC. The report I saw had about a thousand dropped off in Trenton with almost 900 taking the train to the city, meaning they were given tickets and instructions. So now there are unannounced migrants arriving at the train station as well as the bus station. Services are being cut in both the city and the state. And more and more of their constituents have significant problems. My point being that perhaps Chuck and Krissy should figure out that the AIPAC crew might not be the only group that can be an impediment to their future in the Senate.

      1. Rain

        Im not American, but my friends/family there tell me that the bunches of immigrants they have seen are mostly young men, along with rumours that they have been offered citizenship in return for military service. Apparently the US has not been able to meet service recruitment quotas for several years now. The rest,a cheap labour pool for munitions factories to be ramped up.

        1. lyman alpha blob

          Maybe it depends on where you are, but most of the migrants I see in my area are families with children. And from what I can tell, the authorities are fast tracking them to be eligible for employment – someone needs to clean the toilets in all the luxury hotels for rich people we are currently overbuilding in the area.

    3. ChrisFromGA

      There is no evidence that this meeting is with anyone other than Israelis, so it seems pointless to bring up the Abraham accords which appear to be deader than the New York Jets 2023-2024 playoff hopes.

      Sort of sounds like negotiating against yourself here again, as in Ukraine (claiming that Ukraine needs a deal, when no deal will be forthcoming from the Russians and Putin is not even talking about a deal.)

      So, yeah, I agree she’s lying her face off, and perhaps the real agenda of the trip is a desperate plea for Bibi to call off the dogs, as it looks like this war is really hurting team Blue’s poll numbers, particularly the top of the ticket.

      1. JTMcPhee

        “ perhaps the real agenda of the trip is a desperate plea for Bibi to call off the dogs….”

        That’s a huge “perhaps.” Proving a negative is nigh on to impossible, but far as I can see, the coalition of the impermeable has zero interest in any behavior toward the Zionist regime than abject obeisance. After all, the Likud and Likud-adjacent interests are a solid part of what’s now the “base” of the party of the workers (sic.)

        Senators go to kiss the ring and bend the knee.

        T’would be a real sorrow if a Hezb or Ham missile were to land amidst this bunch, to effectuate the “hardening of the US’s mighty resolve in the Mideast theater.” Not that the masters of deception in Jerusalem would ever countenance any such event. Every possible outcome of this emissary is a win for the Likudniks.

    4. Feral Finster

      “In reality a Palestinian State is the only way forward but Israel is too busy cutting off the limb that they are sitting on to realize it.”

      Israel has a different way forward, ethnic cleansing and, barring that, outright genocide, with its American bully and America’s poodles to run interference.

  7. mrsyk

    The next pandemic could hit global crop supplies
    And there I was worried about climate change breaking the food cycle.

    1. caucus99percenter

      Perhaps the next gain-of-function virus the Blob’s biolabs bestow on us will be a plant pathogen that wipes out crops, like the blight in the movie Interstellar ?

      1. Michaelmas

        caucus99percenter: Perhaps the next gain-of-function virus the Blob’s biolabs bestow on us will be a plant pathogen that wipes out crops

        Perhaps? You are naive.

        Firstly, all through the Cold War both sides used classical (traditional) agents against each others’ crops.

        Secondly, as regards the use of designer pathogens, the US biolabs in Ukraine were doing exactly that. Alongside enhanced hantaviruses (which use rabbits and rodents as vectors), they were deploying a technology, under a program called Insect Allies, that used insects as vectors to infect plants with viruses —

        http://science.sciencemag.org/content/362/6410/35

        Agricultural research, or a new bioweapon system?

        Science 05 Oct 2018:
        Vol. 362, Issue 6410, pp. 35-37
        DOI: 10.1126/science.aat7664

        Summary
        Agricultural genetic technologies typically achieve their agronomic aims by introducing laboratory-generated modifications into target species’ chromosomes. However, the speed and flexibility of this approach are limited, because modified chromosomes must be vertically inherited from one generation to the next … an ongoing research program funded by the U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) aims to disperse infectious genetically modified viruses that have been engineered to edit crop chromosomes directly in fields ….

        https://apnews.com/8ed74d87df524ab580d7fbd3b845d0c6
        Scientists: US military program could be seen as bioweapon
        October 4, 2018

        NEW YORK (AP) — A research arm of the U.S. military is exploring the possibility of deploying insects to make plants more resilient by altering their genes. Some experts say the work may be seen as a potential biological weapon. In an opinion paper … in the journal Science, the authors say the U.S. needs to provide greater justification for the peace-time purpose of its Insect Allies project …Other experts expressed ethical and security concerns with the research ….

        The military research agency says its goal is to protect the nation’s food supply from threats like drought, crop disease and bioterrorism by using insects to infect plants with viruses that protect against such dangers.

        “Food security is national security,” said Blake Bextine, who heads the 2-year-old project at the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, or DARPA, an arm of the U.S. Department of Defense.
        The State Department said the project is for peaceful purposes and does not violate the Biological Weapons Convention. The U.S. Department of Agriculture said its scientists are part of the research, which is being conducted in contained labs.

        The technology could work in different ways. In the first phase, aphids — tiny bugs that feed by sucking sap from plants — infected plants with a virus that temporarily brought about a trait. But researchers are also trying to see if viruses can alter the plant’s genes themselves to be resistant to dangers throughout the plant’s life ….

        And so on.

        1. caucus99percenter

          Useful info, but also: ha ha, touché. Naïve: guilty as charged. The world has been in a phase of exponential cynicism expansion for years now and at my age I just can’t keep up.

        2. JTMcPhee

          “Who can destroy a thing, controls a thing.”

          And it’s just amazing to me that a few of us humans are so fascinated by being involved in coming up with tech and weapons (same thing, mostly) with the potential to destroy pretty much anything. I bet there are “scientists” even now, working to develop the tools to make the tools to build the self-replicating micro devices that will turn the entire mass of Planet Earth into grey goo… https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gray_goo

          Stupid effing humans.

          But maybe that would actually be the foreordained pinnacle of God’s Great Plan for the world, so who would dare stand against it?

          1. Snailslime

            Seeing as this has the Potential to surpass nuclear weapons in lethality, there needs to be an assassination program systematically killing the psychopathic scientists involved right away.

            Kinda like Israel murdering iranian nuclear scientists but on steroids and with infinitely better justification.

            Indeed it may be not only justified but morally obligatory to nuke any country into glass that pursues such a project.

        3. lyman alpha blob

          All that complication just to starve out a population? Whatever happened to salting the earth? – if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it!

          1. Eclair

            Give us a couple of years: we’re arguing about what kind of salt to use: Himalayan Pink Salt, Celtic Sea Salt, Black Salt from Pakistan, Hawaiian Red Salt, Alderwood Smoked Salt, Kosher Salt. Or just good ole’ Morton’s When It Rains It Pours iodized salt.

      2. Kouros

        Rumor has it that the African Porcine Pest decimating Eurasian (especially Chinese) herds got a boost in the former USSR stans labs funded and coordinated by the US. Peter Lee has some articles on the subject if I remember correctly…

    2. Mikel

      “Italian hospitals collapse: Over 1,100 patients waiting to be admitted in Rome EuroNews.

      ‘Tis a mystery.

      (Covid is mentioned ever so carefully).

    3. Tedross

      See also the article above

      “The False Link Between Climate Change and Mass Migration”

      “Spending trillions on wind, solar and other forms of “alternative” energy have only slightly offset increases in consumption of oil, natural gas and coal, not replaced them. The costs, and the opportunity costs, have largely been shoved under the rug.

      We’ve gnashed our teeth and muttered under our breath about what good those funds could do to provide food, clean water, basic sanitation and electrification for billions of people around the world living in poverty.”

      https://envmental.substack.com/p/toasting-you-substack-and-legacy

    4. flora

      I thought eliminating chemical fertilizer was going to hit global crop supplies. (See Sri Lanka, Canada, Netherlands, etc.) A man made disaster in the works. sigh….

      (Ye old Stalin had his massive man made famine in1932-22 in Ukr; Mao had his massive man made famine in the great leap forward; I guess it’s time for the WEF to have its massive man made famine. Rigid economic ideology is a deadly dangerous thing. / my 2 cents.)

  8. Donald

    The article arguing that climate change isn’t linked to migration seems overstated and tacitly assumes that effects in a given region will be manageable the way living in a fertile floodplain is manageable. But it obviously depends on how great the changes are in a given location. If wet bulb temperatures start hitting lethal levels frequently, I don’t think that is the same thing as dealing with the occasional river flood.

    1. t

      Also seems to imagine people have means to manage options other than starve and die where they happen to have been born.

    2. taunger

      you have pointed out a few of the straw man arguments I noted in the article. I’m just not sure if they are straw men, or if the author is that deluded. its getting hard these days.

    3. Nick

      I also found a lot of problems in the arguments: the ocean/floodplain conflation that you mention, alongside assumptions on the commensurability of land types and of the timing of geological versus human processes. Another error is categorizing the environmental arguments as emphasizing linear relationships: in fact many of these processes are seen to be non-linear, such as with temperature thresholds or with respect to uncertainty (investing in a second crop in Central America puts one at risk of losing it to lack of rain and so a predictably drier summer may actually avoid worst outcomes).

      I thus became a bit unsympathetic until I saw the end. It is true that many of the poorest aren’t able to migrate and I fear this means they will die early at elevated rates, and I do believe that policy should be oriented toward helping these people. Right for the wrong reasons….

  9. The Rev Kev

    “Stavridis: Hit the Houthis And Iran Where It Counts”

    I’m afraid that James G. Stavridis is channeling his inner neocon here. He complains that ‘the mullahs’ latest provocation is to send a warship, the destroyer Alborz’ into the Red Sea. According to my map. Iran is only a coupla hundred kilometers away but the US sent ships from about 10,000 kilometers away. So the Iranians are actually in their own neighbourhood and have more of a right to be there. But he wants the US to attack Yemen because what could possibly go wrong? He notes their modern equipment (how dare they!) but misses the implications that perhaps their missiles and drones are also modern – and lethal – against those warships in the Red Sea. But what he really wants is a war against Iran because back in the 80s they weren’t so tough. Forty years later Iran’s capabilities are formidable and Stavridis knows it. So I guess he is bored with working for the Carlyle group and the Rockefeller Foundation and wants a government job instead. So this article is actually his job application-

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_G._Stavridis

    1. Henry Moon Pie

      Stavridis is a regular on Morning Joe where 18 months ago or so he was talking big about putting together a NATO fleet to sail through the Bosporus whether Erdogan liked it or not. When it comes to political and military leadership in the U. S., it’s quite clear that it’s not cream that floats to the top.

    2. Feral Finster

      The US does not particularly want a war with Yemen.

      The US is seeking a war with Iran on any pretext.

  10. Carolinian

    Via the CNBC another brilliant idea from Musk’s big brain

    Automakers are also finding new ways to more efficiently manufacture parts through methods like giga casting. Attributed to Tesla, the technique involves using large machines to cast very large chunks of a vehicle all at once, instead of assembling one out of smaller parts.

    Clearly Elon doesn’t have a lot of history with having his cars repaired. When you are the world’s richest man you simply throw them away like Kleenex. Perhaps in the future instead of the previous Musk idea of exchangeable battery packs you will drive your battery pack (highly complex, thousands of parts, tends to burn fiercely) to the repair shop and have them snap on a new body.

    Of course Musk’s vision also includes cars that can drive themselves and therefore make accidents a thing of the past and many of us may be living on Mars by then anyway. But in the meantime all this reinvention of the wheel could be producing a square wheel.

    1. Michaelmas

      Carolinian: Perhaps in the future instead of the previous Musk idea of exchangeable battery packs ….

      Exchangable battery packs are a perfectly feasible idea that less technologically backward countries than the U.S. are already implementing.

      https://www.drive.com.au/news/new-nio-battery-swap-stations-europe/
      Five-minute recharge: China’s Nio rolling out new electric-car battery swap stations in Europe and UK
      21 May 2023


      The drive-through stations can swap out a battery in under three minutes, with the full process – including car alignment and safety checks – taking less than five minutes. This is a minute faster (a 30 per cent improvement) than the second-generation stations currently in use by Nio in China.

      And here’s a piece from last year on those second-generation stations in China —

      https://www.scmp.com/video/scmp-originals/3168635/chinese-smart-battery-swap-stations-can-change-ev-batteries
      Chinese smart-battery swap stations can change EV batteries automatically
      February 28, 2022

      Top Chinese EV maker Nio has released its second-generation battery-swap station, which can automatically change an electric vehicle’s battery pack. The service has been welcomed by customers. Nio has completed more than 800 battery-swap stations in China as of February 2022 and it plans to build a total of 1300 by the end of 2022. Many other EV and battery makers in China have begun building battery-swap stations.

      As for Musk and Tesla using large machines to cast very large chunks of a vehicle all at once, instead of assembling one out of smaller parts, that may very well be feasible too. EVs have vastly fewer parts and systems (13-20 by some reckonings, IIRC) to be placed inside them, as compared to the 500-1000 systems in modern ICE vehicles.

      See forex —
      https://www.stanleyengineeredfastening.com/en/News-and-Stories/From-ICE-to-EV-How-EV-Manufacturing-is-Changing-the-Game

      1. Verifyfirst

        So who owns the battery in the battery swap scenario?

        The battery is a pretty big part of both the cost and the value of the electric car. I consider my battery an asset–I take good care of it, don’t drive huge numbers of miles, and expect (hope) it will continue to function as decent levels (i.e., not degrade too much over time in ability to hold a charge, etc.) far beyond what other owners of the same car achieve.

        I would not be inclined to just swap it out for another battery of unknown provenance. I guess if I were assured there would be swap batteries available forever, then maybe I wouldn’t care? And you still have the problem of availability of swap stations for your particular battery, for going distances, etc.

        1. Carolinian

          My impression of the EV story–at least in this country–is that the battery swap solution to low EV range preceded the eventual Tesla solution of a giant long range battery that (you hope) will last out the warranty along with fast superchargers. There was a story here the other day saying that recently Tesla has become bad about honoring their warranty by claiming owner abuse via driving what is without a doubt a high performance car. The lawyers (in this case in Norway) will have to sort that one out.

      2. JohnnySacks

        Absolutely. Had there been some sort of battery form factor consortium to come up with something like A, B, C battery form factors and a way to swap them out quickly instead of the all too common proprietary vendor lock-in, the EV adoption rate would be an order of magnitude higher by now.

        This family will never own a Tesla. We may someday find the cheapest EV available being fully aware that it’s a bit less of a non-serviceable disposable garbage than a Tesla.

      3. Carolinian

        Thanks for reply. If the Chinese or Tesla can come up with a better battery system then more power to them. Clearly the batteries are the main problem.

        However from what I read Teslas are already notorious for requiring extensive body work after minor dings because they are not designed to be repaired. Musk’s part casting initiative sounds like something that would save money for him but not us. A body repair manual for my lowly Hyundai shows extensive use of bolt together smaller parts thereby somewhat reducing the frame bending and welding associated with accidents. The article doesn’t say what Tesla parts are going to be ‘giga’ but doesn’t sound like a good idea to me.

    2. Dr. John Carpenter

      Clearly Elon doesn’t have a lot of history with having his cars repaired. When you are the world’s richest man you simply throw them away like Kleenex

      Sounds like a feature, not a bug.

  11. The Rev Kev

    “Great Lakes start 2024 with smallest amount of ice in at least 50 years”

    I wonder how many years it will be until the Great Lakes has their first year without any ice at all. You know it’s coming.

    1. ChrisFromGA

      I remember growing up in WNY that several times Lake Erie froze over by now. Ice Fishermen would make risky trips out in pickup trucks/4WD to catch perch, occasionally needing a rescue by helicopter when an ice sheet broke off and started to free float.

      1. Aleric

        That’s happened this year on Red Lake in northern MN – a very large and shallow lake – link Very unusual to not be frozen over.

    1. flora

      If I were foily I might think the Ukr and Isr disasters are being kept going to serve as a distraction from a worse and more insidious plan still being rolled out by the world’s oligarchs, no matter how much the plan destroys in the real world. The magician’s trick: distract the audience’s attention from where the real action is taking place.

      ” People of privilege will always risk their complete destruction rather than surrender any material part of their advantage.”
      John Kenneth Galbraith

      and from the great jurist:
      “We can have democracy in this country, or we can have great wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we can’t have both.”
      Louis D. Brandeis

      and

      “Our government is the potent, the omnipresent teacher. For good or for ill it teaches the whole people by example. Crime is contagious. If the government becomes a lawbreaker, it breeds contempt for law; it invites every man to become a law unto himself; it invites anarchy. To declare that in the administration of the criminal law the end justifies the means – to declare that the Government may commit crimes in order to secure the conviction of a private criminal – would bring terrible retributions.”
      Louis D. Brandeis

  12. Carolinian

    Re that Princeton prof on nationalism as threat to democracy

    The cultural contempt for the elite gets its strength not just from the fact that they are elites but that they can be represented as elites who are no longer part of the nation, as it were. This kind of rhetoric increasingly sees difference as seditious rather than merely a disagreement.

    God forbid that we should regard a US government obsessed with Ukraine, Israel, Russia’s form of government, China’s government, Armenia, West Europe etc as being somehow disconnected from the American people if not downright seditious. When Netanyahu says America is “easily moved” who is he referring to? Given recent events American voters might well conclude that internationalism is the true threat to liberal democracy given their their free speech is threatened if they protest the actions of those foreign governments favored by the elites.

    The article does then goes on to admit that globalism might not be a good thing for ordinary people but seems a lot less concerned about this than the ditzy “stable genius” Trump returning to a position that he already had, and we somehow survived, for four years. So it says it all that many of the “cosmopolitan solidarity” crowd are proposing to save democracy by blocking voting for such a result. One can’t help suspecting that it’s not really “democracy” that they are worried about

  13. Tom Stone

    Good news in Sonoma County!
    The new Jail is almost finished, it covers a full city block, it’s six stories tall and it is a high security facility that only cost a few hundred million dollars.
    Thank goodness that money wasn’t wasted on feeding the hungry, housing the homeless or providing healthcare to the worthless peasants sleeping on the streets..

    1. NYMutza

      Aren’t the sheriffs in Sonoma county quick to shoot first and ask questions (maybe) later? Sonoma is the wild west part of the Bay Area.

  14. MaryLand

    Re the plague diaries. It seems human nature is not only selfish, but perverse. It’s become clear to many of us that most people don’t care if they infect others. What’s most important to them is to do whatever they family blog want to do.

  15. Alan Roxdale

    Israeli officials said in talks with Congo, others on taking in Gaza emigrants

    How are they going to get them there?! What are they going to do? Lash Palestinians to cargo-ships through the Red Sea? Armored transport trains through Egypt? Fly aircraft back and forth over the militia ridden Sahel?

    This is demented Stalin-era USSR-level stuff. It would be impossible for such a drawn out, vindictive, fiat plan not to degenerate into violence and very likely genocide. There wouldn’t be a point to the UN after this. Dictators and technocrats across the globe will be free to shuffle populations about at will, on a whim.

  16. Jason Boxman

    So liberal Democrats are finally, after 7 years? taking this tack:

    Donald J. Trump’s businesses received at least $7.8 million from 20 foreign governments during his presidency, according to new documents released by House Democrats on Thursday that show how much he received from overseas transactions while he was in the White House, most of it from China.

    The headline, of course, gives the impression it was Trump personally: Trump Received Millions From Foreign Governments as President, Report Finds

    Of course getting cash deposits from foreign governments, the Biden way, is much different than this.

    The transactions, detailed in a 156-page report called “White House For Sale” that was produced by Democrats on the House Oversight Committee, offer concrete evidence that the former president engaged in the kind of conduct that House Republicans have labored, so far unsuccessfully, to prove that President Biden did as they work to build an impeachment case against him.

    Of course one thing is not like the other. The Bidens were personally taking cash. Trump had businesses when he assumed office. Liberal Democrats didn’t go after his with this angle then, even though it seemed obvious. Maybe it hits too close to home for them, but now they’ve run out of options?

    If Republicans can’t nail Biden on this, it’ll be the biggest own goal in history, honestly.

    1. lyman alpha blob

      Democrats have been screaming about Trump getting paid by foreigners for years now. And yet nobody in the media ever asks the simple question “So what?” For as long as I can remember one politician after another, much to my personal chagrin, has told us how government should be run more like a business. Yet when they get their wish, suddenly a businessman getting paid for doing business is beyond the pale.

      I might wish that billionaire businessmen were barred from being president, but unfortunately that isn’t so, and attempts to use this as a cudgel against Trump are as stupid as as all the other lawfare attempts currently going on. But of course this is a rather transparent attempt to equate any money Trump got from foreigners with the largesse that the Bidens received.

      They’d really like us to think business and bribery are the same thing.

    2. Martin Oline

      I agree that it is a ridiculous ploy to try and equate Trump’s businesses with himself. The Democrats aren’t preaching to intellectuals but emotional professionals with Stockholm Syndrome and a temporary case of Trump Derangement Syndrome.
      What bothers me is the Biden family scam is so obvious and yet he is setting American foreign policy. Joe obviously operates a Pay To Play system. What future tragedies is he binding America to in return for a payoff?

    3. sfglossolalia

      Those foreign government representatives most likely liked staying at Trump properties to see what drunk Trump hangers-on with loose lips they could run in to at the lobby bar. Or failing, that checking to see what classified documents were being kept in the housekeeping closet.

  17. ThirtyOne

    New Not-So-Cold War
    A pretty fair article from a blobster:

    According to the Russians, the attack on Belgorod was carried out directly under orders from Ukrainian President Zelensky. The operation was launched by the Kraken regiment. The Kraken Regiment is a special forces unit under the command of the Main Directorate for (Military) Intelligence (GUR) headed by Kirill Budanov.

    The Kraken field commander responsible for the Belgorod operation, according to the Russians, was Sergey Velichko. Velichko previously served in the Azov brigade, regarded by many as a neo-Nazi and antisemitic outfit known for its ruthlessness.

    ​The Kraken regiment is based in the northeastern section of Kharkiv. This unit is not part of the Ukrainian army but is directly commanded by the GUR.

    https://asiatimes.com/2024/01/russia-hits-back-hard-after-belogrod-rocket-strike/

  18. Victor Sciamarelli

    I think it’s crucial we all agree that no country in the ME is a threat to the US; neither Syria nor Iran; and certainly not to the material US.
    The primary interest of the US in the ME is maintaining the flow of oil. Like a human being who needs to eat every day, the world economy needs oil every day.
    Secondary interests are preventing any country from becoming a dominant hegemon in the region, as well as reducing terrorism.
    The primary interest of Israel, however, is creating a greater Israel and this means Iran, Syria, and their proxies are, in fact, a threat to Israel.
    The Israel Lobby, that is, those organizations within the Lobby that are focused on influencing US foreign policy towards Israel’s favor, is committed to unequivocal, unwavering support for Israel’s foreign policy.
    It is also true that most of the people within the lobby are neocons and, indeed, nearly all the neocons within the US foreign policy establishment are enthusiastic supporters of Israel. And you don’t need to be Jewish; consider Elliott Abrams a Jew and John Bolton a non-Jew, both neocons and both dedicated to supporting Israel.
    Iran and Syria have, during the recent decades, made continuous overtures to the US in an attempt to restore normal relations. This has been blocked or undermined by Israel and their neocon supporters; as was the JCPOA under Obama.
    Normally, the Israel Lobby has had more influence in the Congress than the Executive but Biden has been extremely helpful to Israel. It is in Israel’s interest for the US to go to war with Iran and Syria, even though, it might prove catastrophic for US interests in the region. But the Lobby and the neocons in Washington seem unconcerned.

  19. OptikErik

    I am writing this in response to some excellent posts yesterday by IMDoc and Boomheist [and others] about dancing Tango. My girlfriend and I met at a Tango class twelve years ago. We don’t dance Tango so much anymore, mainly Swing and Salsa.
    I can totally sympathize with Boomheist about feeling scared and intimidated when first learning partner dance. As a Lead one needs to make something happen out on the dance floor which is hard when you are just learning and you don’t know very much! But persevere and it is so worth it. If you are a single man who would like to meet a nice woman I recommend learning how to partner dance.
    In many if not most N. American partner dance communities there is invariably a shortage of male Leads. If you can learn to be a halfway decent dancer and are a gentleman I guarantee you will be popular among the many female Follows looking for a man to dance with! Not fair if you are a female, I know. I am always on the lookout for men I can recruit into our dance community just to make things a little more balanced.
    Two of my favorite sales pitches to men:
    “Women love a man who can dance”.
    and
    “You can put your arms around a beautiful woman you have just met and share all sorts of sexy moves and nobody cares, even in the most conservative of circles”! haha
    Three Rules for the Lead:
    1. Keep her safe [on the dance floor-watch out not to bump into others].
    2. Make her look good [she probably already looks good].
    3. Keep her smiling.
    The Lead/Follow relationship is definitely not one of dominance/submission. It is a conversation and a sharing. Ideally the Lead invites a move and the Follow completes it. Less is more. It has been said that the Lead follows the Follow’s lead.
    I am a natural Lead but welcome the occasional time when I can follow a female Lead. It is a great mental exercise to experience dancing from the “other side”. In fact, switching back and forth during the same song is a real hoot!
    Interestingly, men almost always prefer to lead and women almost always prefer to follow.
    I would like to share three of my favorite dance videos with you.
    Blues/Tango Fusion:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0cs4BFafRpc
    Blues/Swing:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QTvK7a-OQHQ
    Salsa:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wt7f_Bu2OE8
    See you on the dance floor

  20. steppenwolf fetchit

    Great Lakes starts winter with smallest amount of ice in 50 years?

    That should mean some truly huge, catastrophic , roof-caving-in levels of lake effect snow in at least a few Lakes-adjacent snowstorms.

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