2:00PM Water Cooler 2/20/2024

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Patient readers, I got wrapped around the axle on Trump’s fraud case in New York, so the rest of Water Cooler is a bit thin. More shortly. –lambert

Bird Song of the Day

Ruby-crowned Kinglet, Walla Walla; Lewis Peak Rd., Washington, United States. “Song. Chatter call.”

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Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

The Constitutional Order (Eighth Amendment)

I hate to add another topic to the Constitution Order section, but here we are…

The Eighth Amendment:

Excessive bail shall not be required, nor excessive fines imposed, nor cruel and unusual punishments inflicted.

Commentary:

In 1998, however, the Court injected vitality into the strictures of the clause. “The touchstone of the constitutional inquiry under the Excessive Fines Clause is the principle of proportionality: The amount of the forfeiture must bear some relationship to the gravity of the offense that it is designed to punish.” In United States v. Bajakajian, the government sought to require that a criminal defendant charged with violating federal reporting requirements regarding the transportation of more than $10,000 in currency out of the country forfeit the currency involved, which totaled $357,144. The Court held that the forfeiture in this particular case violated the Excessive Fines Cause because the amount forfeited was ‘grossly disproportionate to the gravity of defendant’s offense.’ In determining proportionality, the Court did not limit itself to a comparison of the fine amount to the proven offense, but it also considered the particular facts of the case, the character of the defendant, and the harm caused by the offense.

NOTE See the material below. Engoron’s penalty seems so obviously excessive it could be grounds for appeal, but IANAL and no appeal has actually been filed. If in fact no Constitutional issues are involved, I’ll move this story to the Trump section under campaign 2024, with the rest of the lawfare stuff.

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“New York vs. Donald Trump, et al.” [New York Times] (PDF). • The Times annotates the full text. I can’t find a proper citation for the case, so that title is my best attempt.

“Here’s a look inside Donald Trump’s $355 million civil fraud verdict” [Associated Press]. “Engoron ruled that Trump engaged in a yearslong conspiracy with top executives at his company, the Trump Organization, to deceive banks and insurers about the size of his wealth and the true value of such properties as Trump Tower in Manhattan and his Mar-a-Lago club in Florida…. Engoron decided the case because state law doesn’t allow for juries in this type of lawsuit, which sought what’s known as “equitable relief” and has different rules than other cases with big-money penalties. Also, he noted, neither side asked for a jury.” More: “Engoron found that Trump’s phony wealth claims were critical to his success, affording him lower loan interest rates [see Engoron’s opinion, starting at page 46, the “Expert Witnesses” section]. and allowing him to build projects he wouldn’t have otherwise been able to finish. The judge determined that those savings and windfall profits were ‘ill-gotten gains’ and ordered him and his co-defendants to cough them up to the state, with interest.” And: “Trump and his lawyers have said that outside accountants that helped prepare his financial statements should’ve flagged any discrepancies and that the documents came with disclaimers that shielded him from liability. They say Trump never told anyone to inflate the value of assets and that, if there were discrepancies, no one was harmed. ‘There were no victims because the banks made a lot of money,’ Trump said Friday, echoing his trial testimony in November. Trump testified that regardless of what his financial statements said, banks did their own due diligence and would’ve qualified him for the loans anyway. He said there’s no evidence that the terms or pricing would have been any different.” • Good to see that New York Real Estate has been purged of its one bad actor! At least, that’s Governor Hochul’s theory–

“Hochul tells NY businesses not to fear about Trump verdict: ‘Nothing to worry about'” [The Hill]. Hochul: “I think that this is really an extraordinary, unusual circumstance that the law-abiding and rule-following New Yorkers who are business people have nothing to worry about, because they’re very different than Donald Trump and his behavior.” • So this is kinda like a bill of attainder? Aimed at one individual?

“Obscene award against Trump is testing the New York legal system’s integrity” [Jonathan Turley, The Hill]. “The one hope for New York businesses may be the U.S. Supreme Court. Despite the deference afforded to the states and their courts, the court has occasionally intervened to block excessive damage awards. For example, in 1996, the justices limited state-awards of punitive damages under the Due Process Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment. In that case, BMW was found to have repainted luxury cars damaged in transit without telling buyers. An Alabama jury awarded $4,000 in compensatory damages for the loss of value in having a factory paint job, but then added $4 million in punitive damages. Even when the Alabama Supreme Court reduced that to $2 million, the U.S. Supreme Court still found it excessive. Even liberals on the Court such as John Paul Stevens and Stephen Breyer agreed that such ‘grossly excessive’ awards raise a ‘basic unfairness of depriving citizens of life, liberty, or property, through the application of arbitrary coercion.’ The court may find almost half a billion dollars in damages without a single lost dollar from a victim to be a tad excessive.”

“Explainer: How will Trump pay his $355 million civil fraud judgment?” [Reuters]. “The former president’s finances are opaque, but Forbes estimates his net worth at $2.6 billion, most of it tied up in real estate. Trump testified in an April deposition that he had roughly $400 million in cash. Though he could sell parts of his portfolio to satisfy the judgment, it is unclear how much his property holdings are worth, given the headwinds in the commercial real estate sector…. [Engoron’s] ban on applying for loans from banks registered or chartered in New York could severely restrict Trump’s ability to raise cash…. Trump’s portfolio could see a major windfall if he were to sell his stake in his social media platform Truth Social, the value of which has soared as his bid to return to the White House gathers steam. Trump’s stake in the company, Trump Media & Technology Group, is now worth about $4 billion, based on trading in the shares of a black-check acquisition vehicle that has agreed to merge with it. If the deal closes, Trump would be able to sell his shares in the combined company six months later.”

“Trump ruling explained: How the $355M judgment might affect his businesses” [ABC]. “Trump is expected to appeal the judgment. He has two avenues to do so. First, at the Appellate Division and then at the New York State Court of Appeals. That will take time and could mean the case won’t be put to bed until 2025 at the earlieBut he can’t put off paying the $355 million plus interest. It will essentially need to be kept in escrow during the appeals process to ensure the plaintiff gets the money Engoron ordered if his full judgment is upheld. It’s not clear where it will come from. Trump, who claimed last year to have $400 million in cash, could put it up himself if his assertion is true. But it’s also the case that he is facing another hefty $83.3 million verdict in the civil trial he recently lost to E. Jean Carroll. So he could seek to borrow money and use a big asset (e.g., one of his buildings) as collateral. Given that Engoron’s ruling bars him from getting a loan from any financial institution registered in New York – which likely rules out most major international banks with offices in New York, Thomas noted – that may mean he would need to get a personal loan from a non-financial institution or an unregistered financial company. Or he might need to get help from a very high net worth individual, who also may seek a Trump business asset as collateral to secure the loan.”

“Exclusive: Donald Trump To Challenge Judge Engoron’s Fraud Definition” [Newsweek]. “The appeal hinges on the definition of fraud used in the case. Professor Greg Germain of Syracuse University of Law told Newsweek that on appeal, Trump will have to show that the New York attorney general does not have the power to punish him ‘without showing the traditional elements of fraud: (1) scienter—basically intent to defraud, (2) false statements of fact rather than opinion or trade puffing, (3) reasonable reliance by the victims, (4) materiality, (5) causation, and (6) damages.’ ‘I think he has a strong argument that when the attorney general seeks to punish for past use, rather than prevent future use, she would have to show all of the traditional elements of fraud,’ he added. However, James’ team will argue that, under New York executive order 63.12, which gives the attorney general her power to prosecute fraud, she doesn’t have to show that all six elements are present. Executive order 63.12 was established in 1956 and provides the attorney general with broad authority to issue subpoenas and pursue civil fraud allegations with relatively low legal hurdles. ‘Judge Engoron ruled in the summary judgment order that, under 63.12, the attorney general does not have to show any of those elements—a showing of falsity is enough, Germain said. He said that, had the court applied the full six-part definition of fraud, it would have found very little evidence that the banks had a ‘reasonable reliance’ on Trump’s statements. ‘The evidence of reasonable reliance [on Trump’s financial statements] by the ‘victims’ is very weak’ and may be grounds of appeal,’ Germain said. A banking official told the trial that he did not not solely rely on Trump’s statements when assessing a loan application and that the bank made its own calculations.” • So, all that’s required, according to Attorney General James, is “a showing of falsity.” Is Hochul really claiming that the “law-abiding and rule-following New Yorkers who are business people” have never made any false statements when making real estate deals?

2024

Less than a year to go!

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Trump (R): “The Big Thing About Trump’s Presidency That Team Biden Needs to Get” [Michael Tomasky, The New Republic]. “For me and for most of my friends—and I’m guessing for you—the Trump presidency was daily hell for four years…. The pain and outrage never let up until shortly before noon on January 20, 2021. That was life inside my bubble. And that was life inside the bubbles of virtually all loyal Democrats and/or committed members of the broad left for those four-plus years.” Love the framing, “loyal Democrats.” More: “Outside our bubble, though, things looked different. I’m not talking about MAGA America. Those folks, we know all about. I’m talking about the people in between. They’re the people who’ll decide this election. And this election year, those of us inside our bubble need to go put our heads inside theirs. Because where they live, incredible as this may seem to you and me, the Trump years were good, and he was a pretty capable president.” Trump got rid of the ObamaCare mandate, saving me — coincidentally enough — six hundred bucks on my taxes. More: “[W]hy would people carry a fond memory of a presidential term that many of us consider to have been far and away the worst in American history? Because the economy dominates people’s thoughts along these lines, and until the pandemic, the economy under Trump was pretty good, at least in the ways we measure these things. One more statistic: the median household income number in 2019. Median household income rose steadily during the Obama years after the meltdown. A thousand here, three thousand there. That’s how it usually goes, historically. But from 2018 to 2019, median household income jumped from $63,100 to $68,700—the biggest single-year increase going back 30-plus years. And more than that: It rose more in the lowest quintile than in the highest. A lot more.” • Then, of course, there was the CARES Act, which put a significant dent in poverty during the pandemic, and which Biden promptly dismantled. And say what you like about Trump, he wasn’t a warmonger.

Trump (R): “Rightwing mega-donors drift back to Trump as election rematch looms” [Guardian]. “Donald Trump’s efforts to court and cajole rightwing billionaires into financing his presidential campaign are bearing fruit as even sceptical conservative mega-donors face up to the prospect he will again be the Republican candidate…. Trump’s campaign is pushing the inevitability of his victory over the former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley, the last remaining challenger in the Republican primaries, in order to shift the focus to the general election as he pursues Wall Street and Silicon Valley money. Trump successfully wooed the biggest donor to the Florida governor Ron DeSantis’s failed presidential campaign during a visit to Las Vegas last month, the billionaire developer Robert Bigelow. After meeting Trump and then joining his motorcade through Las Vegas to a political rally, Bigelow pledged $20m to the former president’s campaign – the same amount he gave to DeSantis – along with another $1m toward the mounting costs of his myriad legal problems. Trump also won commitments from other well-heeled donors on the Las Vegas trip while the billionaire investor John Paulson held a dinner for the former president and major Republican party contributors earlier this month, according to Politico.” • Reversion to the meanest…..

Trump (R): “Trump allies prepare to infuse ‘Christian nationalism’ in second administration” [Politico]. “An influential think tank close to Donald Trump is developing plans to infuse Christian nationalist ideas in his administration should the former president return to power, according to documents obtained by POLITICO. Spearheading the effort is Russell Vought, who served as Trump’s director of the Office of Management and Budget during his first term and has remained close to him. Vought, who is frequently cited as a potential chief of staff in a second Trump White House, is president of The Center for Renewing America think tank, a leading group in a conservative consortium preparing for a second Trump term…. One document drafted by CRA staff and fellows includes a list of top priorities for CRA in a second Trump term. “Christian nationalism” is one of the bullet points. Others include invoking the Insurrection Act on Day One to quash protests and refusing to spend authorized congressional funds on unwanted projects, a practice banned by lawmakers in the Nixon era…. Vought, who declined to comment, is advising Project 2025, a governing agenda that would usher in one of the most conservative executive branches in modern American history. The effort is made up of a constellation of conservative groups run by Trump allies who’ve constructed a detailed plan to dismantle or overhaul key agencies in a second term. Among other principles, the project’s ‘Mandate for Leadership‘ states that ‘freedom is defined by God, not man.'” • An, “Mandate for Leadership.” In 2004, Bush the Younger prattled about his mandate. Google bombing was still possible, back in the day, so I arranged for Mandate magazine to be the top hit for a search on “Bush Mandate”; a gentleman wearing a sailor’s cap, if I recall. I hope the same thing happens to these guys, except a lot worse.

Trump (R): “The Real Challenge of Trump 2.0” [Foreign Affairs]. “while out of power, Trump’s team has done the transition work it did not do the first time around; they will be empowered by a transformed Republican Party and come equipped with a very detailed list of friends and foes—and thus be better positioned to bend bureaucratic politics to their will…. in the few areas where slow-rolling and end-running and other normal bureaucratic gimmicks were used to thwart a determined Trumpian policy flourish, the paucity of true-believing MAGA warriors at every level of the bureaucracy made it difficult for Trump to have his whims fulfilled. It is far from clear that there will be such guardrails this time around.” • Yeah, thank God the adults in the room stopped Trump from removing our colonial outposts in Syria!

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Biden (D): “Joe the Rainmaker? Payments, deals followed key Biden meetings with son’s foreign associates” [Just the News]. “Evidence including sworn impeachment inquiry testimony, confirmed emails and financial records increasingly show that President Joe Biden’s meetings with his son’s foreign clients were closely followed by payments and agreements that advanced his family’s business deals. House Republicans on Thursday subpoenaed new financial records belonging to Hunter Biden, his associates, and companies in a growing effort to find evidence that Joe Biden benefited personally from his son’s foreign dealings. Rep. Greg Steube agreed on the ‘Just the News, No Noise’ television show on Thursday that Joe Biden played a “rainmaker” role in Hunter Biden’s business ventures. ‘We’ve known that all along and now we’re getting corroborating witness testimony,’ Steube said. ‘Thankfully, for the subpoenas that have been issued to the financial institutions, we now have financial evidence of the money that was laundered from the Chinese Communist Party or Russian oligarchs, or the Ukrainian government and entities through the Biden family members, his brother, James Biden, and Hunter Biden.’ ‘And we know that obviously, Joe Biden was the impetus behind all of that,’ Steube claimed.” “Claimed,” indeed. “Obviously” is doing a lot of work, there. Personally, I think all that’s needed is to show that the Biden clan benefitted, not Biden personally. All those bank accounts, all those loans; a big river of Biden cash, with many tributaries, some quite small.

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IL: “Boy, 5, dies after contracting COVID, Strep and 2 other viruses: ‘Too much for a little body'” [Today]. “A 5-year-old boy in Chicago who was staying at a migrant shelter has died of sepsis, which developed after he contracted COVID-19 and Strep A.” • Filing this here instead under Immune Dysregulation in Covid, because Chicago is in Pritzker’s patch, and it sounds like his migrant shelters are hellholes.

IL: “City releases statement after boy dies, others hospitalized following illness at migrant shelter” [NBC Chicago]. “Monday, a spokesperson with the Chicago Fire Department said that ‘several’ other individuals at the shelter, where about 2,000 people were staying, required hospitalization, including a 1-year-old girl and a 4-year-old girl. An 18-year-old woman was also hospitalized early Monday, fire officials said. According to a Chicago Department of Public Health spokesperson, there have been reported cases of Varicella, commonly known as chickenpox, in both children and adults at the Pilsen shelter.” • Nothing about measles. Yet. Better fix this before the Democrat National Convention August 19!

Realignment and Legitimacy

“6 Rules for Actually Changing People’s Minds” [Strong Towns]. “We all know on some level that there’s a big difference between being right and being convincing. Yet in practice, a lot of us are confident in the former but unstrategic about the latter. When we find that being right in a public forum is not enough to bring people around, we respond by trying to be right more forcefully, aggressively, or exasperatedly. Results are predictably poor…. 1. People are persuaded by stories, not by facts… 2. The spread of beliefs is a social process, not an individual one…. 3. Our minds are changed by trusted messengers…. 4. Nobody trusts a jerk (except the jerk who’s already on their side)…. 5. Our fundamental beliefs are changed bit by bit, not all at once…. 6. Social consensus is less solid than it seems.” More on point 6: “What appears to be a monolithic consensus often isn’t: rather, it’s a handful of loud voices in a feedback loop with each other, and many others who fall somewhere between passive mild agreement and choosing to just stay quiet. Arguing directly with the loudest and most demagogic participants in such a community—and thus with the apparent social consensus—doesn’t work very well. So what does? How do you start to shift that social consensus if you think that there’s a whole community that has got something basically wrong? You start to crack open some doors. Point out things that aren’t at 180-degree odds with the majority view, but that complicate it or introduce nuance. Point out a perspective that isn’t usually heard (those of renters in a conversation dominated by homeowners; those of people who walk or use wheelchairs or strollers in a conversation dominated by drivers). Don’t be preachy or obnoxious about it. Don’t act like you’re trying to win a debate. Do it with an awareness of the core narratives of the space you’re in. Do it in a way that one or two of the group’s trusted messengers—those who are prominent voices but also appear amenable to nuance and disagreement—will hear you as a basically friendly countervailing voice.” • Hmm.

#COVID19

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

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Look for the Helpers

“Data analyst Greg Travis speaks on COVID pandemic-related excess deaths in the US” [WSWS]. “One of the critical byproducts of the ‘forever COVID’ policies implemented by the ruling elites, abandoning any fight against the pandemic and even dismantling monitoring of COVID cases by public health agencies, has been the emergence of a layer of principled health care experts, data analysts and researchers who are providing real-time information on the actual state of the pandemic. The COVID-19 infection trackers maintained by Dr. Mike Hoerger and data scientist Jay Weiland, with modeling based on wastewater levels of SARS-CoV-2, have documented the massive scale of infections that have been sweeping across the United States and the rest of the world. Their weekly reports underscore the continuing high rates of daily infections, giving a glimpse into the public health catastrophe that is taking place under a complete media blackout of the pandemic. Viral sleuths like Ryan Hisner, Raj Rajnarayanan and others have turned to their social media channels, which function as information hubs to accumulate information on the latest subvariants and their mutations. Many of their initial reports, such as on Pirola in August and then JN.1 in September 2023, were critical in giving the world a substantive alert on the massive wave of infections that has since washed over the globe, while national public agencies like the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) were taking pains to cover up these developments.” • This is absolutely terrific and a must read (although I think “layer” is, analytically, the wrong word. Ditto “by-product”; hardly dialectical).

Transmission

“Transmission of Viruses from Restroom Use: A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment” [Food and Environmental Virology]. From the Discussion: “Restrooms have been implicated as a source of hepatitis A, norovirus, and SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks, and contamination of restroom fomites has been documented in several studies (Abney et al., 2021). Multiple routes of exposure during restroom use can occur, such as accumulation of pathogens on the body and clothes of the user through aerosolization during toilet flushing, direct inhalation of aerosols, or indirect transmission following deposition of aerosolized pathogens on various surfaces throughout the restroom (from use of face towels, contaminated soap bars, or other high-touch surfaces, such as toilet lid, flush handle, faucets, door handles, etc.)” Note that the Abstract does not mention “inhalation” (!). But restrooms are 3Cs spaces, so that’s an obvious route of transmission:

They even mix “inhalation” and “hand contamination” in Figure 1. Dudes, fomites aren’t like aerosols!

“Who We Are” [Global Handwashing Partnership]. “The Global Handwashing Partnership is a coalition of international stakeholders who work explicitly to promote handwashing with soap and recognize hygiene as a pillar of international development and public health.” • Proctor and Gamble, Johnson, Colgate-Palmolive… Soap makes and a gaggle of NGOs (not including Pontius Pilate or Lady Macbeth. Too bad). Now, I’m all for handwashing. Handwashing is good! But the contrast to clean air is really heartbreaking.

Elite Maleficence

Tedros is a lying weasel on airborne, and this thread has him dead to rights:

“Governor Hochul proposes ending COVID-19 Sick Leave Law” [ABC]. “Governor Kathy Hochul has proposed getting rid of the state’s COVID-19 sick leave law in her proposed state budget. The law went into effect in 2020. It requires employers to provide COVID sick leave for employees under mandatory or precautionary order of quarantine. It could end July 31st. The Governor’s proposal says one of the reasons is because quarantine requirements have changed. Her office released a statement saying, ‘New York State has one of the nation’s strongest paid sick leave policies, providing most employees with up to 56 hours of paid sick leave each year, and Governor Hochul’s FY25 executive budget includes additional expansions of medical and disability leave.’ The Business Council of New York supports the proposal. ‘We understand the pandemic is still with us,’ said Frank Kerbein, Director of the Center for Human Resources at the Business Council of New York State. ‘There’s still individuals who suffer from COVID. At the same time in 2020 the state passed a new mandatory paid sick leave that all employers have to provide 40 or 56 hours of pay time off for employees. This is enough. We feel this is enough now to help employees who are still impacted by COVID.'” • CA gives 40 hours…

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TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

Cases
★ National[1] Biobot February 19:	★ Regional[2] Biobot February 19:
Variants[3] CDC February 17	Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC February 10
Hospitalization
★ New York[5] New York State, data February 16:	National [6] CDC February 5:
Positivity
National[7] Walgreens February 19:	★ Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic February 17:
Travelers Data
Positivity[9] CDC January 29:	Variants[10] CDC January 29:
Deaths
Weekly deaths New York Times February 10:	Percent of deaths due to Covid-19 New York Times February 10:

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (Biobot) Again, no backward revisions. The uptick is real (at least to Biobot). Note this anomaly:

Looks like Covid might not be seasonal? Who knew? Hoerger comments:

Bad News: Biobot #wastewater levels are still rising.

Historically, February is marked by a rapid decline in transmission. 929 copies/mL corresponds to 1.35 million infections per day in the U.S. pic.twitter.com/tRvRhU9xA9

— Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA (@michael_hoerger) February 20, 2024

[2] (Biobot) Here, FWIW, is Verily regional data as of February 20. CDC Region 1:

And Region 2:

Verily data, then, shows no anomaly. Presumably, Biobot sewersheds and Verily sewersheds do not overlap.

[3] (CDC Variants) “As of May 11, genomic surveillance data will be reported biweekly, based on the availability of positive test specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring every two weeks. 2. occurring twice a week; semiweekly.” Looks like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to worry about. Time will tell.

[4] (ER) Does not support Biobot data. “Charts and data provided by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the past year, using a rolling 52-week period.”

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) A little more decrease, consistent with Biobot data, but not much. Let’s wait and see.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC) Still down. “Maps, charts, and data provided by CDC, updates weekly for the previous MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Department Visits, Test Positivity) and weekly the following Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”.

[7] (Walgreens) It would be interesting to survey this population generally; these are people who, despite a tsunami of official propaganda and enormous peer pressure, went and got tested anyhow.

[8] (Cleveland) Flattening, consistent with Biobot data.

[9] (Travelers: Posivitity) Down, albeit in the rear view mirror.

[10] (Travelers: Variants) JN.1 utterly dominant.

Stats Watch

There are no official statistics of interest today.

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Manufacturing: “‘A horrible, perfect storm’: Frustrations rise as shortage of Adderall, other ADHD medication continues” [Chicago Tribune]. “In October 2022, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration formally announced a nationwide Adderall shortage, leaving millions scrambling to obtain prescription stimulant medication. Over a year later, there’s no end in sight, and a tangled network of causes has made for no clear solution.” More: “Access to prescription stimulant medications first began to unravel at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. Physicians started reporting a significant jump in ADHD diagnoses. Research compiled by FDA-affiliated scholars indicated that prescriptions for stimulant medications among people aged 20 to 29 rose 30% from April 2018 to March 2022. There are multiple theories on why that’s the case, including the ease of telehealth, increased ADHD awareness and the added stressors of remote work, experts say.” Not to mention friends and family getting sick and choking to death on the bloody mush in their lungs! WTF is wrong with these “experts”? More: “Meanwhile, a major drugmaker began to experience an Adderall manufacturing delay, according to the FDA. When patients turned to alternative prescription stimulant medications, those too became scarce. Although the manufacturing delay has since been resolved, its long-lasting effects are exacerbated by unprecedented demand. Many pharmacies nationwide still have unpredictable inventory. ‘It was just a horrible, perfect storm that really has trapped our patients from getting what they need to work, to perform at school, to be able to live their lives,’ [Julie Carbray, a clinical professor of psychiatry and nursing at the University of Illinois Chicago] said. Another hurdle: Because stimulant medication is a controlled substance, most people with ADHD can obtain only a 30-day supply at a time.” • Hard for me to identify, because I’m so old I wasn’t drugged in school for being a boy. That said, it seems remarkable to me that the magic of the marketplace is unable to solve a supply issue, so WTF? However–

Manufacturing: “The Empty Adderall Factory” [New York Magazine]. “There’s been a national shortage of ADHD medication for more than a year and a half. According to the government and industry experts, there are multiple overlapping causes: manufacturing problems, labor issues, supply-chain failures, and a huge rise in demand during the pandemic. But Ascent claims there’s another factor exacerbating the shortage, one that’s completely sui generis: the fact that it’s been shut down by the Drug Enforcement Administration. The agency has accused Ascent of shabby recordkeeping that might have allowed millions of pills to go unaccounted for. Ascent makes painkillers in addition to stimulants, and, amid the ongoing opioid epidemic, the DEA has been under pressure to show it is aggressively policing the industry. (The agency did not respond to requests for comment.) Ascent has said that its paperwork is in order and has sued the Department of Justice to get its assembly lines working again. A resolution doesn’t seem likely anytime soon. In the meantime, the company is producing zero ADHD meds. If its claims are true, that’s 600 million doses per year missing from the market. As Ascent says in its lawsuit, ‘Turning off that supply is making a grave situation infinitely worse.'” • A drugmaker named “Ascent.” That’s too much!

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Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 66 Greed (previous close: 75 Extreme Greed) [CNN]. One week ago: 71 (Extreme Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Last updated Feb 20 at 1:31:21 PM ET.

The Gallery

“As Seen on ‘Blade Runner 2049′: A Turner Canvas Reflecting Technological Dystopia” [Artnet]. “Hidden away in a crucial scene is nothing other than a painting by English Romantic painter J.M.W. Turner that echoes the scene’s misty atmosphere and may even have been intended to reinforce the film’s presentation of the threat of the superiority of the technological over the natural…. [K, the replicant protagonist,] tracks… Deckard (played by Ford as in the original) to the ruins of Las Vegas… Deckard inhabits the abandoned Vintage Casino, surrounded by antique-looking objects: paintings hang on the wall…. If you blinked, you might miss it, but Turner’s painting Rain, Steam and Speed – The Great Western Railway (1844) hangs on the wall over Ford’s shoulder; the dark lines of a viaduct leading into the distance are unmistakable…. In the painting, a steam engine crosses a railway bridge in the rain. Turner depicted a hare along the train track to highlight the difference between the speed of the animal, a product of nature, and the train, a technological advance. (According to the National Gallery in London, where the painting resides, ‘The animal is now invisible as the paint has become transparent with age, but it can be seen in an 1859 engraving of the painting.’).” • Here it is:

(The hare is or would be at bottom right; I’m glad for the National Gallery note because I was going nuts trying to find it.) One more reason for Blade Runner 2049‘s superiority over the original [ducks].

Guillotine Watch

“The gloves are off among Silicon Valley CEOs” [Business Insider]. “It’s far from clear who the winners and losers of these new open rivalries will be. What’s more certain, according to Y Combinator cofounder Paul Graham at least, is that innovation could happen faster than it has in some time.” • That’s too bad.

News of the Wired

“Why is no one making a new version of old Facebook?” [12 Challenges]. “Either: billions of people who used to find old Facebook useful have changed their preferences in the last few years, and no longer need something like that, Or: a huge unmet demand currently exists for a social network which is based on the social graph, instead of the content graph, and which is pre-enshittification. Yes, the social graph has moved elsewhere, mostly to messaging platforms. But as Toby points out, these lack many of the features that we used to take for granted on Facebook — for instance, creating events, inviting friends, setting up groups (non-messaging ones, which were more like forums), and the serendipity/utility of a high-quality feed which included people you cared about.” • I haven’t used Facebook in over a decade, and it won’t let me create a new account because it still remembers me, somehow (ugh). But surely the same applies to Google? A Google that used PageRank? A pre-evil Google?

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Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From CK:

CK writes: “An Oregon meadow in June all done up as pointillism, or so it seems to my eye.” Lovely!

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