2:00PM Water Cooler 2/23/2024

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Bird Song of the Day

Ruby-crowned Kinglet, 1.5 km WSW of Johnsontown, Berkeley, West Virginia, United States. “Behavior and other notes: Adult male Ruby-crowned Kinglet giving calls and subsong while foraging in the lower branches of a Virginia Pine.”

* * *

Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

2024

Less than a year to go!

* * *

This week’s polling:

* * *

Trump (R): “Could Tulsi Gabbard Become Trump’s Very Weird VP Choice?” [Ed Kilgore, New York Magazine]. “you don’t really see many people or politicians go from far left to far right or back again. An exception is clearly former Democratic congresswoman and presidential candidate Tulsi Gabbard. A big-time backer of Bernie Sanders in 2016, and a favorite of the anti-war left, Gabbard’s most famous moment on the 2020 Democratic nomination trail was her sharp attack on Kamala Harris in a debate for putting ‘over 1,500 people in jail for marijuana violations’ as a prosecutor. Today, though, Gabbard is scheduled be the keynote speaker at a Mar-a-Lago fundraising dinner for the 917 Society — a nonprofit best known for distributing pocket-size copies of the Constitution… Gabbard hasn’t endorsed Trump for president just yet, but she’s definitely been on a sojourn toward MAGA-land for a while now. Her strongly anti-interventionist views (including hostility to any aid to Ukraine) has been a constant. But in October 2022, she formally left the Democratic Party… Soon thereafter, Gabbard’s trajectory was made clear by her endorsement of the Senate candidacy of MAGA favorite J.D. Vance. …. At an event in South Carolina earlier this week, Fox News’ Laura Ingraham asked [Trump] about a list of vice-presidential prospects that included Tim Scott, Vivek Ramaswamy, Ron DeSantis, Byron Donalds, Kristi Noem … and Gabbard. Trump replied: All ‘of those people are good. They’re all solid.” (His campaign later clarified that DeSantis was not under consideration, and that Elise Stefanik was a possibility, too.) It’s well known that Team Trump is interested in broadening his coalition by choosing a veep who is a woman, a person of color, or someone well outside the political Establishment. Gabbard fits all three criteria.” • Hmm. Trump could do worse.

Trump (R): “The Swiftboater Coming for Biden” [David Freedlander, New York Magazine]. “A longtime brawler and veteran of Republican politics, including the infamous Swift Boat Veterans for Truth campaign against John Kerry in 2004, today LaCivita is officially senior adviser to Donald Trump’s presidential campaign — but he is really the de facto co–campaign manager along with Susie Wiles. Together, they have brought an unprecedented level of discipline to the campaign’s third iteration.” And: “According to a dozen people working on and close to the campaign, Wiles and LaCivita have figured out that part of Trump’s appeal is the performance and that he can’t really be managed anyway — look no further than Trump randomly urging Russia to attack NATO members. Instead, Wiles manages internal matters (“She controls the checkbook,” as one person put it) while LaCivita plots the overall strategy. He ran the ground game in Iowa that crushed Ron DeSantis in the caucuses and pushed the Republican parties of Nevada and California to change their delegate-allocation rules to favor Trump.” Importantly: “‘2016 was a totally shambolic operation, just a guy on a plane surrounded by a rotating cast of jokers,’ says Liam Donovan, a Republican strategist. ‘By 2020, you had a more professionalized operation, but the campaign was led by his web designer until the home stretch. He came close with the B-team, and now we get to see what happens when you bring in some of the most shrewd, calculating, and ruthless operators in the party.'” • Of course, there is the budget….

* * *

Haley (R): “She’s not quitting. Takeaways from Nikki Haley’s push to stay in the GOP contest against Trump” [Associated Press]. “Ahead of a major speech on Tuesday, Haley told The Associated Press that she’s staying in the race no matter what at least until after another 20 states vote through Super Tuesday on March 5.” Not a long time. More: “But somehow, even as the losses begin to pile up, Haley is raising money at the strongest rate of her political career. Haley’s campaign raised $5 million in a fundraising swing after her second-place finish in New Hampshire that included stops in Texas, Florida, New York, and California, according to campaign spokesperson Olivia Perez-Cubas. Her campaign raised $16.5 million in January alone — her best fundraising month ever. She raised another $1 million last week in the 24 hours after Trump attacked her husband, a military serviceman currently serving overseas.” And: “‘People are not looking six months down the road when these court cases have taken place,’ Haley said. ‘He’s going to be in a courtroom all of March, April, May and June. How in the world do you win a general election when these cases keep going and the judgments keep coming?'” • A good question, that the Trump campaign team has no doubt considered carefully.

Haley (R): “The Democrats Paying for Nikki Haley to Stay in the Race” [The American Conservative]. “A POLITICO analysis of FEC filings by Haley’s campaign found that, in January alone, approximately 1,600 donors to President Joe Biden’s campaign in 2020 also donated to Haley’s campaign. These were not just small-dollar donors; they were responsible for more than $500,000 of donations last month. In total, more than 5,200 donors to Biden’s 2020 campaign have donated to Haley’s primary campaign.” • So Haley’s appeal is bipartisan!

* * *

Biden (D): “Biden’s cheat sheets at fundraisers worry donors” [Axios]. “President Biden has been using notecards in closed-door fundraisers, calling on prescreened donors and then consulting his notes to provide detailed answers, according to people familiar with the routine. Biden’s reliance on notecards to help explain his own policy positions — on questions he knows are coming — is raising concerns among some donors about Biden’s age. The staged Q&A sessions have left some donors wondering whether Biden can withstand the rigors of a presidential campaign, let alone potential debates with former President Trump, 77. Biden advisers say the president is given notecards only for very detailed and technical questions, and say he frequently does spontaneous Q&As. Most recent presidents — including Trump, George H.W. Bush, George W. Bush and Barack Obama — have carried crib notes, or used teleprompters, to help guide them through various public events and meetings. In Biden’s case, donors have noticed he’s also using notecards in private events. Biden’s notecards are partly the result of a detail-oriented staff that wants to ensure his fundraisers are successful.” • Which indeed they have been.

Biden (D): “Old Yeller” [Axios]. “In private, [Biden’s] prone to yelling… Biden has such a quick-trigger temper that some aides try to avoid meeting alone with him. Some take a colleague, almost as a shield against a solo blast. The president’s admonitions include: “God dammit, how the f**k don’t you know this?!,” “Don’t f**king bullsh*t me!” and “Get the f**k out of here!” — according to current and former Biden aides who have witnessed and been on the receiving end of such outbursts. The private eruptions paint a more complicated picture of Biden as a manager and president than his carefully cultivated image as a kindly uncle who loves Aviator sunglasses and ice cream. Senior and lower-level aides alike can be in Biden’s line of fire. ‘No one is safe,’ said one administration official.” • So that explains Master and Commander (“Old Yeller” is, of course, the name of a dog, so Axios was giving a pretty broad hint, here).

Biden (D): “What happens if Biden drops out? The chaotic 1968 Democratic convention could be a clue” [Business Insider]. “That scenario hasn’t occurred since 1968. In late March, as the US involvement in the war in Vietnam raged on, Democratic President Lyndon B. Johnson announced he would end his reelection bid following a narrow win in New Hampshire’s state primary. Less than a week later, a shooter killed civil rights leader Martin Luther King Jr. in Memphis, stoking even more national drama. Without Johnson, the obvious Democratic nominee, his vice president, Hubert Humphrey, joined the primary fray against Sen. Eugene McCarthy and Sen. Robert F. Kennedy. Having joined the election cycle late in the game, Humphrey was unable to make it onto several primary ballots. Undeterred, his campaign amassed delegates via an unconventional strategy: having allies stand in for him in certain primaries to disrupt the competition and allow state party leaders to send the delegates his way. After months of strategic campaigning, in early June, Humphrey had a sizable delegate lead over Kennedy and a several hundred delegate lead ahead of McCarthy. His campaign’s strategy appeared to be working, but an unexpected national tragedy quickly complicated its plans: Kennedy was assassinated, upending the primary race. With no candidate having amassed a majority of the nation’s delegates, the Democratic presidential nominee was decided at the 1968 Democratic National Convention in Chicago, where anti-war protesters angrily demonstrated outside.” I remember watching the convention live on a black-and-white TV; the white tear gas was vivid as the Chicago cops attacked the protesters; I especially remember a group of them clubbing a black-robed priest. Then there was Mayor Daley yelling “Kike!” at Abraham Ribicoff, who was antiwar. A spectacle indeed. More: “As it stands, it doesn’t appear that the DNC has any desire to recreate 1968’s contested convention in any capacity. Chairman Jaime Harrison said Monday that the idea of taking the nomination away from Biden and then winning in November — likely against former President Donald Trump — is ‘certifiably crazy actually.’ Unless Biden stuns the party and suddenly drops out, the current 81-year-old president is on a fast track to obtaining the Democratic presidential nomination.” • Events, dear boy, events; that’s what it would take. Volatility, dear boy, volatility.

Biden (D): “A Vote for Trump Is a Vote for Putin—and a World in Danger” [David Rothkopf, The Daily Beast]. “It is time to move beyond the political spin offered by GOP propagandists and Internet trolls and acknowledge that Trump and the MAGA movement are today active assets of Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin, as essential to Russia’s future global ambitions as that country’s own armed forces…. After more than eight years of compiling evidence that demonstrates Russia’s efforts to co-opt the American right is perhaps the most successful intelligence operation of our time, we have to reject the transparent vocabulary of keyboard warriors [reporters] that still cry ‘hoax’ every time new and irrefutable evidence of GOP-Russia ties is presented.” • (Rothkopf is a fully paid-up pseudopodium of The Blob.) Damn. What’s that warbling sound?

Biden (D): “The ‘Russia Collusion’ Reboot Is Going To Be Terrible” [The Federalist]. “‘I don’t know what [Putin] has on [Trump], but I think it’s probably financial,’ Pelosi theorized. ‘Either something financial he has him on or something on the come — something that he expects to get.’… If Democrats had common decency, they would cook up a fresh conspiracy theory for us in 2024, because, really, the prospect of reliving the same hysterics over Russia for another year—or four—is just depressing…. Now, I don’t care how much you detest Trump. Accusing him of being a foreign asset or a spy, or contending that he’s being blackmailed, are stupid smears. Only a sap or a liar could possibly believe them at this point. Pelosi, cynically playing on the credulous nature of her constituents, surely doesn’t. She knows a nearly two-year special counsel investigation — largely prompted by a political oppo file paid for by Democrats — failed to uncover a single act of ‘collusion’ in 2016, much less kompromat on Trump. There were congressional investigations. There were leaked tax returns. Every major media organization in the nation spent an inordinate amount of time and treasure trying to expose Trump’s alleged sedition. This is why Pelosi is compelled to frame Trump’s alleged treachery as future quid pro quo. It’s certainly difficult to disprove future events.” • If Pelosi is projecting, that would imply blackmail is common in the Democrat “inner party.”

Biden (D): “FBI informant who lied about the Bidens’ ties to Ukrainian energy company had high-level Russian contacts: DOJ” [FOX]. • I have been remiss in covering this story for two reasons: First, I don’t like it when spooks pop out of nowhere and disturb the narrative flow. Second, Smirnov? Like the vodka? Really?

* * *

“They surveyed 10,000 rural voters. Here’s what they learned.” (interview) [Politico]. “The sharp swing of rural voters toward the Republican Party since the 1980s cannot be explained by simply looking at demographic indicators like race, age and education, say Colby College professors Nicholas Jacobs and Daniel Shea, who published [The Rural Voter: The Politics of Place and the Disuniting of America] in November.”

After crunching the survey data, you identify place-based grievance and anxiety as the strongest indicators of being a rural voter. What is place-based anxiety or grievance, and why is it so important?

JACOBS: Demographic indicators do not do that good of a job [of identifying rural voters] compared to values. … When you ask questions about the community: Is your community better off? Will your kids have to leave your community in order to live a productive life? Are politicians listening to the needs of your community? That is a distinguishing feature of ruralness. Rural people are thinking about their rural communities in a different way. Suburbanites and urbanites are not thinking about that.

(“Try that in a small town.”) And:

What are some of the implications of your research for the 2024 presidential election?

SHEA: I hope Democrats appreciate the size of the rural voting bloc. This is a group of voters that is more important for the Republican Party than either Black voters or young voters are for the Democratic coalition. This is a big important group, and if the Democrats can’t chip away and make some inroads, it is not good on a national level and it’s going to be very bad at the state-level. … One of the reasons it may be hard for Democrats to go into rural areas is that they’ve come to believe these are bastions of crazy Trumpers. … But what we show in this book is that there are genuine concerns that pre-date Donald Trump by decades. Take the anxiety that all Americans feel about the future, double it, and extend it back extra decades. That’s the story of rural America.

I would sure like a handy map of rural votes in Swing States, but a cursory search doesn’t yield one. Readers?

* * *

“The presidential money machine is stalling out, and there are warning signs for both Biden and Trump” [Politico]. “Joe Biden and Donald Trump are raising less money than past presidential candidates, and both are spending big to shore up their weaknesses. Biden has spent millions on ads that are so far failing to arrest his decline in the polls, and Trump, in even worse financial shape, is blowing through tens of millions of dollars on legal costs to stay on the campaign trail and forestall a possible prison sentence. Together, Biden’s $56 million in cash on hand heading into this month and Trump’s $30.5 million are less combined than Trump alone had this time four years ago, $92.6 million. The candidates are still raising millions — Biden raised $15.7 million in January — but gone are the eye-popping sums from previous cycles, which boomed as online giving became commonplace. Donor fatigue, especially among those online small-dollar givers who powered Biden and Trump in 2020, means campaigns have to keep a tight budget. Combine that with the way the candidates’ biggest deficiencies are eating into their stockpiles, and there’s a growing prospect of a possible cash crunch in the summer and fall once the general election begins in earnest. That could force the campaigns to target a smaller-than-typical list of battleground states, rather than experimenting with expanded, more ambitious electoral targets and innovative-but-unproven ways of reaching new voters.” • Setting up a natural experiment in battleground states.

“Teamsters report first major GOP donation in years, surprising Republicans” [Axios]. “The Teamsters’ $45,000 donation to the Republican National Committee’s convention fund, per Federal Election Commission reports, comes as Trump and President Biden vie for blue collar support in key swing states ahead of this year’s election. The reported contribution is not an endorsement. But it’s a powerful statement from a union that’s supported every Democratic presidential nominee since Al Gore. It represents the Teamsters’ first big donation to the RNC since 2004, the Washington Post reports.” But: “The party has neither received a check from the union nor heard anything about the contribution coming, a source familiar with the RNC told Axios…. Asked why the Teamsters reported the donation to the FEC before sending the money, spokesperson Kara Deniz said the union has ‘a strict internal auditing and reporting process that is followed before any contributions are sent.'”

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“Phillips says he’s open to being Haley VP on ‘unity ticket'” [The Hill (CI)]. Phillips: “I think America could be very well served by some type of a bipartisan ticket that restores faith in government and most importantly, demonstrates to the world — to the world — that America can work together and restore its extraordinary brand around the entire world.” • A branding exercise, then? Come on.

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Our Famously Free Press

“CBS faces uproar after seizing investigative journalist’s files” [Jonathan Turley, The Hill]. Turley broke this story, apparently. “CBS officials took the unusual step of seizing her files, computers and records, including information on privileged sources…. I have spoken confidentially with current and former CBS employees who have stated that they could not recall the company ever taking such a step before. One former CBS journalist said that many employees ‘are confused why [Herridge] was laid off, as one of the correspondents who broke news regularly and did a lot of original reporting.’…. A former CBS manager, who also spoke on condition of anonymity, said that he had ‘never heard of anything like this.’ He attested to the fact that, in past departures, journalists took all of their files and office contents. Indeed, the company would box up everything from cups to post-its for departing reporters. He said the holding of the material was ‘outrageous’ and clearly endangered confidential sources…. The timing of Herridge’s termination immediately raised suspicions in Washington. She was pursuing stories that were unwelcomed by the Biden White House and many Democratic powerhouses, including the Hur report on Joe Biden’s diminished mental capacity, the Biden corruption scandal and the Hunter Biden laptop. She continued to pursue these stories despite reports of pushback from CBS executives, including CBS News President Ingrid Ciprian-Matthews…. The network grabbed Herridge’s notes and files and informed her that it would decide what, if anything, would be turned over to her. The files likely contain confidential material from both her stints at Fox and CBS. Those records, it suggests, are presumptively the property of CBS News. For many of us who have worked in the media for decades, this action is nothing short of shocking. Journalists are generally allowed to leave with their files. Under the standard contract, including the one at CBS, journalists agree that they will make files available to the network if needed in future litigation. That presupposes that they will retain control of their files. Such files are crucial for reporters, who use past contacts and work in pursuing new stories with other outlets or who cap their careers with personal memoirs.” • One can only wonder what story Herridge was about to break. Perhaps “endanger[ing] confidential sources” was the point?

Republican Funhouse

“Exclusive: Senate Republican demands Biden block credit card company merger” [Axios]. “Hawley’s stance aligns him with other critics of the deal, most of whom are Democrats, such as Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) who also has called for regulators to block the deal…. Hawley was the first Republican to call for the deal to be blocked, and it could signal more scrutiny from the populist wing of the GOP.” • Hmm.

Democrats en Déshabillé

Nobody worry about Nancy, she’s doing fine:

This is getting ridiculous.

Nancy Pelosi's $NVDA calls have made her $1,700,00 in 92 days, more than eight times her annual salary of ~$223,500.

With NVDA’s all time high, her $NVDA ITM calls are now up 82%.

An American making $60k/year requires ~30 years to make that amount. pic.twitter.com/PeCwbZyf9o

— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) February 22, 2024

Realignment and Legitimacy

“Appeals court rules NYC law allowing noncitizens to vote in local elections violates state constitution” [The Hill]. “The Appellate Division for the Second Judicial Department ruled against the bill allowing noncitizens to vote in local New York City elections, including for mayor, in a 3-1 decision released Wednesday. The New York City Council approved the bill in 2021 and quickly faced a lawsuit challenging the law after Mayor Eric Adams (D) enacted it in 2022.”

#COVID19

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

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Covid is Airborne

“The Harm of Air Changes” [Joey Fox, Medium]. Very important. “[A]ir [C]hanges [per Hour (ACH)] is the wrong way to measure exposure to viruses and risk of airborne disease transmission…. Briefly, the harm from any pollutant is related to the rate a pollutant is generated and the rate it is removed. Infectious aerosols are generated by infectious people and pose a risk to susceptible people. As more people enter the space, the risk of the space increases, so the amount of clean air delivered needs to increase. This is why the best metric for exposure to airborne infectious diseases is airflow per person. This is used in ASHRAE 241.” And: “Rooms with higher occupant density are higher risk, but ACH completely ignores occupancy. ACH is the wrong metric with no basis in physics. This isn’t just a philosophical disagreement – it can have significant implications. Assessing risk is essential for addressing the harm for pollutants. Failure to assess risk leads to a failure to mitigate harm.” Naturally, CDC has butchered this: “The CDC’s recent recommendations for public spaces is to have 5 air changes per hour. However, they admit themselves that the metric is often wrong: ‘Large volume spaces with very few occupants (e.g., a warehouse) may not require 5 ACH and spaces with high occupancy or higher-risk occupants may need higher than 5 ACH.’ If a ‘scientific; basis to design spaces only works some of the time, then it isn’t scientific.” • Centers for Disease strikes again.

Transmission

Readers in both the US and the UK: Can this possibly be true? Is it true where you are?

So I find it darkly amusing that coughing and sneezing is now so normalised and encouraged in England that normal decent people make absolutely no effort to cover their cough or sneeze.
And no one notices.
It was the logical next step in the progression.

— tern (@1goodtern) February 23, 2024

I mean, I suppose it could be:

Why should I cover my mouth when I sneeze? If others are afraid, they can cover THEIR mouths when I sneeze.

— Maxwell Smith, PhD (@maxwellsmith) September 5, 2022

“You do you! [cough] [spew].” If this is true, maybe I should file it under Zeitgeist Watch….

Infection

The scale is compressed compared to the Biobot chart that I use, but the tendency is correct:

Reminder that COVID wastewater levels have never gone back down to "low" – the baseline keeps rising up and up, especially with these last few waves.

"So what, everyone has COVID all the time, big deal" – think about what that actually means, please.

(graph via @JPWeiland ) pic.twitter.com/QZV1WfiND3

— Covid Caution JN.1 Variant (@CovidCaution) February 21, 2024

Remember that although peaks matter, the case counts under the curve matter just as much.

Sequelae

“Researchers identify mechanism behind brain fog in long COVID” [Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy]. “Disruptions in the blood-brain barrier along with a hyperactive immune system are the likely mechanisms behind “brain fog” in patients who are experiencing long COVID, an Irish research team reported today in Nature Neuroscience. Brain fog has been reported during acute COVID infection and has also been reported in nearly 50% of patients who experience long COVID, or symptoms well past the acute phase of COVID-19. The blood-brain barrier disruption mechanism was suspected before, but to test the connection, the group first analyzed blood samples to look for any biomarker differences between those who did and didn’t report brain fog. They examined blood samples from 76 patients who were hospitalized with acute COVID in early 2020, comparing findings with pre-pandemic samples from 25 other patients to look for any differences in coagulation patterns and immune response. Those who reported brain fog had higher levels of a protein (S100β) produced by brain cells not normally found in the blood, which hinted at a ‘leaky’ blood-brain barrier. For the second part of the study, the researchers conducted brain scans using dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI to examine brain circulation in 11 people who had recovered from COVID and 22 who had long COVID, which included 11 people who reported brain fog. They found that long-COVID patients with brain fog had a leaky blood-brain barrier when compared to other long COVID patients and to others who had recovered. The group’s experiments also found that long-COVID patients with brain fog had increased levels of clotting markers in their blood.” • More Long Covid biomarkers not even sought for by those useless gits at NIH. Here’s the original. One attractive feature of this approach is that it gives an account for loss of smell (anosmia): ”

Morbidity and Mortality

“Covid death toll in US likely 16% higher than official tally, study says” [Guardian]. Cites to this PLOS One study, already linked. I’m putting this here to remind myself to put a line showing the revised estimate on the New York Times death charts.

Elite Maleficence

* * *

TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

Cases
National[1] Biobot February 19:	Regional[2] Biobot February 19:
Variants[3] CDC February 17	Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC February 17
Hospitalization
★ New York[5] New York State, data February 22:	National [6] CDC February 10:
Positivity
National[7] Walgreens February 19:	Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic February 17:
Travelers Data
Positivity[9] CDC January 29:	Variants[10] CDC January 29:
Deaths
★ Weekly deaths New York Times February 17:	★ Percent of deaths due to Covid-19 New York Times February 17:

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (Biobot) Again, no backward revisions. The uptick is real (at least to Biobot). Note this anomaly:

Looks like Covid might not be seasonal? Who knew? Hoerger comments:

Bad News: Biobot #wastewater levels are still rising.

Historically, February is marked by a rapid decline in transmission. 929 copies/mL corresponds to 1.35 million infections per day in the U.S. pic.twitter.com/tRvRhU9xA9

— Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA (@michael_hoerger) February 20, 2024

[2] (Biobot) Here, FWIW, is Verily regional data as of February 20. CDC Region 1:

And Region 2:

Verily data, then, shows no anomaly. Presumably, Biobot sewersheds and Verily sewersheds do not overlap.

[3] (CDC Variants) “As of May 11, genomic surveillance data will be reported biweekly, based on the availability of positive test specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring every two weeks. 2. occurring twice a week; semiweekly.” Looks like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to worry about. Time will tell.

[4] (ER) Does not support Biobot data. “Charts and data provided by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the past year, using a rolling 52-week period.”

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Not flattening.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC) Still down. “Maps, charts, and data provided by CDC, updates weekly for the previous MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Department Visits, Test Positivity) and weekly the following Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”.

[7] (Walgreens) It would be interesting to survey this population generally; these are people who, despite a tsunami of official propaganda and enormous peer pressure, went and got tested anyhow.

[8] (Cleveland) Flattening, consistent with Biobot data.

[9] (Travelers: Posivitity) Down, albeit in the rear view mirror.

[10] (Travelers: Variants) JN.1 utterly dominant.

Stats Watch

Manufacturing: “United States Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index” [Trading Economics]. “The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas’s general business activity index for manufacturing in Texas slipped 17 points to -27.4 in January 2024, the lowest in eight months, suggesting a deeper contraction during the month.”

* * *

Antitrust: “Potential Criminal Activity Revealed in the Kroger-Albertsons Merger” [Matt Stoller, BIG]. “[E]nforcers found what looks like criminal behavior by Albertsons and Kroger to suppress worker wages, and are actually doing something about it beyond just challenging the merger…. The Colorado Attorney General Phil Weiser published evidence in his complaint that the two firms routinely colluded to not hire each other’s workers in order to suppress wages and break their unions. This dynamic was particularly bad in early 2022, when unionized workers at a Kroger supermarket chain, King Soopers, went on strike after their contract expired. And let’s be clear, these firms hate unions. Kroger executives, for instance, had previously considered ‘closing’ unionized stores in Washington state ‘for a period of time to make them nonunion.’ Why didn’t Kroger shut down union stores temporarily? The answer is competition. If they had done so, rivals would have taken their customers A different path, rather than shutting stores, was to work with a rival to collude against workers, which is what Albertsons and Kroger did. And there are emails.” • Ugh. Speaking of supermarkets:

7. Here's an interactive map of cities and towns that have enacted limits or bans on dollar stores — a movement that has grown rapidly in recent years. https://t.co/yKhH0SwZkb

— Stacy Mitchell (@stacyfmitchell) February 22, 2024

The Bezzle: “Private Equity Payouts at Major Firms Plummet 49% in Two Years” [Bloomberg]. Via Stoller. “For years, limited partners have relied on a metric known as internal rate of return — a measure of gains on future cash flows — to determine whether to back an investment. That standard worked when cash was cheap. Now, investors are zeroing in on a different yardstick. So-called distributed to paid-in capital — the ratio of cash generated to what’s invested — has overtaken IRR as the most critical metric for investors. It’s gaining traction in the aftermath of higher borrowing costs and a dearth of deals, which hindered the ability of buyout shops to exit investments and return money to investors. The focus on cash returns is ratcheting up pressure on private equity firms to deliver in a tough dealmaking environment.” • Hmm.

Tech: “What Happens to Your Sensitive Data When a Data Broker Goes Bankrupt?” [The Markup]. “In 2021, a company specializing in collecting and selling location data called Near bragged that it was ‘The World’s Largest Dataset of People’s Behavior in the Real-World,’ with data representing ‘1.6B people across 44 countries.’ Last year the company went public with a valuation of $1 billion (via a SPAC). Seven months later it filed for bankruptcy and has agreed to sell the company. But for the ‘1.6B people’ that Near said its data represents, the important question is: What happens to Near’s mountain of location data? Any company could gain access to it through purchasing the company’s assets.” But: “Last week, Sen. Ron Wyden wrote the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) urging the agency to “protect consumers and investors from the outrageous conduct” of Near, citing his office’s investigation into the India-based company.” And: “This week, a new bankruptcy court filing showed that Wyden’s requests were granted. The order placed restrictions on the use, sale, licensing or transfer of location data collected from sensitive locations in the U.S. and requires any company that purchases the data to establish a ‘sensitive location data program’ with detailed policies for such data and ensure ongoing monitoring and compliance, including the creation of a list of sensitive locations such as reproductive health care facilities, doctor’s offices, houses of worship, mental health care providers, corrections facilities and shelters among others. The order demands that unless consumers have explicitly provided consent, the company must cease any collection, use or transfer of location data.” • Good for Wyden, good for the FTC. Now do biometric data….

Tech: “Prompt engineering is a task best left to AI models”[The Register]. “The absence of a coherent methodology to improve model performance via prompt optimization has led machine learning practitioners to incorporate so-called ‘positive thinking’ into system prompts.” In other words, “prompt” “engineering” [sic] is analytically equivalent to a cargo cult (although, happily for the investors, cargo sometimes arrives).

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Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 78 Extreme Greed (previous close: 78 Extreme Greed) [CNN]. One week ago: 70 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Feb 23 at 1:25:33 PM ET.

“It’s not even past”

I forgot this:

Here is the "Doonesbury" cartoon that Gannett removed from ALL of their newspapers this past Sunday. That's almost 400 news papers including USA Today. https://t.co/A6uhoqyPel pic.twitter.com/E2RSqmOW7r

— Cheri Jacobus (@CheriJacobus) February 22, 2024

Two excellent podcast episodes on slavery as the obvious and contemporaneously announced cause of the Civil War are from David Bright and The Civil War & Reconstruction. See also Louis CK here (listen all the way to the end).

Everybody’s a Critic

“A Davidsonian version of Dissemination and Abandonment” [nonsite.org]. Since nonsite.org publishes Adolph Reed, I have to take them seriously. That said, I find this article (it mentions Derrida in the second sentence) utterly incomprehensible; perhaps we have a professional philosopher in the readership who can propose an interpretation. That said, at the very highest level, it does seem to me that philosophers of language must have useful perspectives on our current Bernays Sauce*-drenched discourse — if only I could understand them. NOTE * I forget who to hat tip for this brilliant phrase; Wukchumni?

Healthcare

“The 9 scariest words in the English language, per FTC’s chairwoman” [Becker’s Hospital Review]. Khan: “‘For many Americans, and perhaps many of you, the nine most terrifying words in the English language may be ‘I’m from your insurer, and I need prior authorization.'” Ms. Khan said healthcare is a key part of the FTC’s efforts to boost competition across the economy. She said there are five key pillars to that work: Scrutinizing ‘opaque middlemen across the healthcare supply chain’; tackling unlawful consolidation and rollups; ensuring antitrust enforcement protects all Americans, including workers, tackling unlawful practices by pharmaceutical companies; safeguarding sensitive health information.” • One of the few bright spots in the Biden Administration; I can’t imagine what he was thinking when he hired her.

News of the Wired

“Darwin Online has virtually reassembled the naturalist’s personal library” [Ars Technica]:

For the last 18 years, the Darwin Online project has painstakingly scoured all manner of archival records to reassemble a complete catalog of Darwin’s personal library virtually. The project released its complete 300-page online catalog—consisting of 7,400 titles across 13,000 volumes, with links to electronic copies of the works—to mark Darwin’s 215th birthday on February 12.

“This unprecedentedly detailed view of Darwin’s complete library allows one to appreciate more than ever that he was not an isolated figure working alone but an expert of his time building on the sophisticated science and studies and other knowledge of thousands of people,” project leader John van Wyhe of the National University of Singapore said. “Indeed, the size and range of works in the library makes manifest the extraordinary extent of Darwin’s research into the work of others.”

Darwin was a notoriously voracious reader, and Down House was packed with books, scientific journals pamphlets, and magazine clippings that caught his interest. He primarily kept his personal library in his study: an “Old Study” and, after an 1877 addition to the west end of the house, a “New Study.” A former governess named Louise Buob described how Darwin’s books and papers inevitably spilled “into the hall and corridors, whose walls are covered with books.”

The French literary critic Francisque Sarcey remarked in 1880 that the walls of the New Study were concealed “top to bottom” with books, as well as two bookcases in the middle of the study—one filled with books, the other with scientific instruments. This was very much a working library, with well-worn and often tattered books, as opposed to fine leather-bound volumes designed for display. After Darwin died, an appraiser valued the scientific library at just 30 pounds (about 2,000 pounds today) and the entire collection of books at a mere 66 pounds (about 4,400 pounds today). Collectors now pay a good deal more for a single book that once belonged to Darwin.

What a wonderful project!

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Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From Angie Neer:

Angie Neer writes: “Faded and dessicated Hydrangea blossoms in winter.” Gorgeous!

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