2:00PM Water Cooler 4/12/2024

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102 comments

1. Lena April 12, 2024 at 2:52 pm

   Lambert, you are right about FDR and his ability to empathize with Dust Bowl families. One side of my family is from Oklahoma. They lived on a chicken farm the family used to say couldn’t grow dirt. Two of my great uncles were veterans of the infantry who fought in France during WWI. They came home to nothing. They ended up in California where FDR’s New Deal programs eventually helped them to build good lives for themselves and their families. They knew that FDR did much more than just say he was “fighting for” them. Listening to him on the radio was an event they looked forward to. When he died, they cried like a family member had been lost.
   1. playon April 12, 2024 at 5:25 pm

      If you look at photos from FDR’s funeral procession, it was obvious he was much loved by regular people. The Biden admin attempts to compare him to FDR were worse than absurd.
   2. CA April 12, 2024 at 6:24 pm

      This is what the Roosevelt’s represented:

      https://www2.gwu.edu/~erpapers/teachinger/case-studies/Case_Study_ER_coal_miners_updated.pdf

      Cartoon from the New Yorker, June 3, 1933

      Coal miners, at work:

      “For gosh sakes, here comes Mrs. Roosevelt!”

      Pages 8 and 9…
   3. CA April 12, 2024 at 6:31 pm

      This is what the Roosevelt’s represented:

      Let Us Now Praise Famous Men is a book with text by American writer James Agee and photographs by American photographer Walker Evans, first published in 1941 in the United States. The work documents the lives of impoverished tenant farmers during the Great Depression.
      1. You're soaking in it! April 12, 2024 at 7:02 pm

         “This world was lucky to see him born”

         “Dear Mrs. Roosevelt”, Dylan at tribute concert for Woody Guthrie
      2. CA April 12, 2024 at 7:39 pm

         Carelessly, I forgot to set down this link to the work of Agree and Evans:

         https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Let_Us_Now_Praise_Famous_Men
   4. Michaelmas April 12, 2024 at 8:31 pm

      From Saul Bellow’s essay, ‘In the Days of Mr. Roosevelt” —

      .
      “A civilized man, FDR gave the U.S.A. a civilized government. I suppose he was what Alexander Hamilton would have called an ‘elective king,’ and if he was in some respects a demagogue, he was a demagogue without ideological violence … As an undergraduate I was fully armored in skepticism, for Roosevelt was very smooth and one couldn’t be careful enough. But under the armor I was nonetheless vulnerable. I can recall walking eastward on the Chicago Midway on a summer evening. The light held long after nine o’clock, and the ground was covered with clover, more than a mile of green between Cottage Grove and Stony Island. The blight hadn’t yet carried off the elms, and under them drivers had pulled over, parked bumper to bumper, and turned on their radios to hear Roosevelt. Everywhere the same voice, its odd Eastern accent, which in anyone else would have irritated Midwesterners. You could follow without missing a single word as you strolled by. You felt joined to these unknown drivers, men and women smoking their cigarettes in silence, not so much considering the President’s words as affirming the rightness of his tone and taking assurance from it. You had some sense of the weight of troubles that made them so attentive, and of the one ponderable fact, the one common element—Roosevelt—on which so many unknowns could agree.”
   5. rowlf April 12, 2024 at 8:48 pm

      Down the road from me is Warm Springs, GA, where the Little White House museum is. One of the exhibits is a convertible top car modified so FDR could drive it. There are a lot of photos and stories of Franklin and Eleanor driving in the local area stopping and talking with people.
2. Phenix April 12, 2024 at 2:53 pm

   Kennedy (I): Hotez throws down the gauntlet:

   Hotez refused to debate RFK Jr on Joe Rogan’s podcast. He has refused to have a written debate with RFK Jr. Hotez is a smart man but he will not debate well read lay people or fellow scientists. He is like every other corporate vaccine proponent….you must TRUST the science. Any suggestions to explore the relationship between vaccines/adjuvants and autism are ignored.

   I am autistic. I was not vaccine injured. I am actually an Aspy but my cohort was rolled into the over all autism spectrum.

   I believe the mother’s and father’s who have witnessed a change in their children after vaccinations. The refusal to honor them and study this only underscores that there is something happening to our children. I do not know what it is but RFK Jr threw everything away to help people who thought that their children were hurt because corporations elevate their bottom lines above public health.
   1. Lambert Strether Post authorApril 12, 2024 at 3:08 pm

      > I believe the mother’s and father’s who have witnessed a change in their children after vaccinations.

      Hotez is one such. So clearly, so parents pulling rank has nothing to do with anything. I might (or might not) believe a parent’s analysis, but that’s because I’d believe the analysis, not the parent. My heuristic is that the parents are the last people whose views I would take on faith; way too invested.

      As for debating, so what?
      1. marku52 April 12, 2024 at 3:43 pm

         Doesn’t that seem like he doesn’t think his data will stand up? I’m sick of “experts” that insist I take their pronouncements as gospel
         1. Objective Ace April 12, 2024 at 4:04 pm

            Some people aren’t good at “thinking on their feet”. Especially if they’re debating someone who is an expert at deploying rhetorical fallacies. I’m not saying thats what RFK is doing, I dont have enough expertise to know if what he is saying is relevent or not, but the other side (ie Hotez) claim that’s what he does.

            One thing that does give me pause, is Hotez’ unwillingness to refute RFKs claims in another venue. It’s one thing to not be a good debater, but you should be able to put together a written defense of your position and a point by point attack on the opponent if you are going to claim they are wrong. Maybe his book will do that?
            1. Christopher Smith April 12, 2024 at 5:10 pm

               Maybe he is not good at thinking on his feet, and maybe that’s not fair. So what? All I see is a prominent public figure inviting an expert who virtually nobody knows to make his case on a very popular platform, and the expert refusing to make his case.

               Granted, I am good at public speaking and have 20+ years of litigation experience, so maybe I am not taking Hotez’s possible lack of rhetorical skill seriously enough. But I know what looks weak to an audience, and he looks weak.
               1. britzklieg April 12, 2024 at 8:43 pm

                  IIRC (and if some one knows differently please speak up) early in the pandemic Hotez was instrumental in developing a non-mRNA vaccine which showed great success (and no adverse effects) but got no traction or $ support from the government or Big Pharma to make it readily available. He publicly complained rather bitterly about it while expressing concern for the mRNA vaccines. But then he totally flipped and became a strong proponent of MRNA “vaccination” and I believe it is that flip-flop that may be central to his nervousness about debating. As someone who, from the beginning, has questioned the wisdom of mRNA technology, I was an early fan of Hotez’s vaccine and was unsettled by the switch in his public statements.

                  And if I’m wrong about all that I stand corrected.
            2. IM Doc April 12, 2024 at 6:24 pm

               The problem is that I have been around long enough to know how things work in medicine. Or at least they used to.

               Debating, making arguments, scientific discussion were all part of the game. Especially when I was younger. Part of being a research scientist was being able to perform well in debates. Thinking on your feet is an aspect of this that is very important. Back in the day, when it was known that an argument was coming, all kinds of preparation would be done in private in the lab with your own colleagues. Absolutely no one in the position of Hotez would ever dream of sending any of his subordinates to debate without being thoroughly prepared. And certainly someone of his stature would be prepared to debate at any time. They had a very thorough knowledge of their material – and had all kinds of experience of being questioned by their own colleagues, fellows, etc.

               Furthermore, there was a complete understanding that the conference forum or the debate stage was the absolute best place to really exhibit if the other side was a clown show. Back in the day – they literally jumped at the chance to do this. It was not just in debates. This was done in conferences at the Q&A period at the end – a well-placed question and an awkward answer could at times be revelatory.

               This was absolutely aggressive – but it was also absolutely critical for learning, for further avenues of research, for questioning, and for understanding your own processes – how you got it right and how you got it wrong.

               We have really lost this thread in medicine. This hardly happens at all anymore – and when it does you can tell the majority of the audience are triggered. I get the idea this lack of vigorous discussion is commonplace throughout higher education. We are too busy making people feel warm and fuzzy.

               The fact that Hotez will not engage his opponent speaks volumes to me. And not in a good way. Indeed all of the leaders of medicine have made a critical mistake in this area the past 4 years. By not being front and center in active debates they have allowed all kinds of things to get amplified. This is made even worse when they only appear in media that is very obviously one-sided. It has truly been a valuable lesson in how NOT to do public health. The problem is – I do not think anyone is learning a thing.
               1. Screwball April 12, 2024 at 6:59 pm

                  Thank you, and I agree.

                  I’m not in medicine, but I teach. One of the first things I learned when I started teaching (after I retired) was I didn’t know as much about my craft as I thought I did. A student would ask me a question and I had no answer. Tough position to be in. That’s how the real world, and science (I teach a STEM class) works.

                  I tell my students from day one; I want questions, I like questions, and I welcome them. There is also no such thing as a dumb question. It makes me better at my job, and the students learn more too. Win, win.

                  Open and honest conversation is what makes things better for all of us. When do we start?
                  1. JBird4049 April 13, 2024 at 11:53 pm

                     >>>Open and honest conversation is what makes things better for all of us. When do we start?

                     By admitting and accepting without fear that anyone, including yourself, can be wrong or make mistakes, which appears to have become forbidden in our society.
               2. Phenix April 12, 2024 at 7:39 pm

                  Thank you for responding.

                  Hotez doesn’t need to change RFK Jr’s mind. He needed to convince Joe Rogan’s audience that Bobbie is wrong. Hotez’ refusal to debate him causes more people to question Hotez not RFK Jr.
                  1. lyman alpha blob April 13, 2024 at 1:12 am

                     It’s possible Hotez is worried that too many people in Rogan’s audience are familiar with the video here. Heavily edited to be sure, but it does make a point, which Taibbi spells out.
         2. ron paul rEVOLution April 12, 2024 at 4:08 pm

            I don’t argue with my toddler, but it’s not because I’m afraid of his facts and logic
            1. Christopher Smith April 12, 2024 at 5:05 pm

               Not quite the same. RFK, Jr. is a significant presidential candidate whom most people have heard of. Everyone knows who Rogan is and that he has a popular interview show. Few people know who Hotez is outside of his field. (I only know the name because I read Naked Capitalism.) When you are a virtually unknown expert, who is invited to debate a well known politician on a very popular platform and you decline, you look weak. Strike that, you ARE weak. By not appearing, Hotez signals that he cannot win the argument and thus loses it – even if he is right.

               It’s one thing for Hotez to refuse to debate a toddler or some other nobody, but people with far more prestige invited him to debate, and he refused. That’s weak.

               Is it fair? Probably not, but that’s how it is.
               1. Darthbobber April 12, 2024 at 5:51 pm

                  You seem to be equating prestige and celebrity here.
               2. steppenwolf fetchit April 12, 2024 at 5:56 pm

                  If I were a genuine expert on something and was invited to debate in public by a clever lawyer who knows all the tricks of verbal and philosophical deceit, I would also naturally hesitate. Just as I would hesitate to debate a master Gish
                  Galloper in public.

                  And if that hesitation were to lead to refusal to join such a “debate”, the invitation-offerer to such a “debate” would naturally paint it as an admission of weakness. That’s part of the charm and part of the trickery.

                  So maybe genuine experts will have to learn how to deal with clever laywers and Gish Gallopers in a public debate setting. Here is a link where tips on handling a Gish Galloper are offered.
                  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gish_gallop
                  1. Mark Gisleson April 12, 2024 at 7:21 pm

                     An unknown can always engage in asymmetrical warfare especially when graced with “expert” credentials. In keeping with IM Doctor’s remarks, no one in Hotez’s position could possibly be unequipped to engage in such strategies (which when done well do not appear to be strategies at all, just a pep talk on how unfortunately everything is more complicated than we thought…).

                     I’m not an expert on RFK Jr but he is a big fan of stepping back and providing greater context, imo, in a good way. Not a Gish Galloper, he’s the lawyer with his thumbs in his galluses sucking on his cheek and taking his time to make his points because he knows that simply to understand his wrecked voice you have to focus on him. Most people probably lip read him to an extent. Directly engaging with RFK Jr is to be at a much deeper disadvantage than simply scoring debate points. The Godfather whispered, Trump shouts (then winks). Good lawyers establish a rapport and then take up residency in your head.

                     RFK Jr. is an honest man. At least he thinks is he is and he behaves accordingly. If your expertise is tainted, you do not want to engage, let alone debate, with such a man. Opposite end of the spectrum from Trump, but both armed with the same weapon: a willingess to speak truth to power. Their weaknesses are different but similar: you can’t attack either man without pointing to crimes that are widely committed by elites on “both” sides.

                     Abbie Hoffman would have loved this election cycle.
            2. t April 12, 2024 at 5:22 pm

               Sounds like you’ve seen some of the debate challenges – like “we’ll have rules” – that RFK slithered away from in the 90s.

               I’d rather try to have a reasonable discussion with your toddler than any Debate Bro out there. (And not just because there’s a strong likelihood that a debate bro is also a men’s rights wacko which adds a whole other layer of why even bother.)
         3. Big River Bandido April 12, 2024 at 5:12 pm

            Don’t see why a scientist should give a politician a legitimate platform to air pseudoscientific views, especially since such a debate would have zero effect on real science. Scientific fact is not determined through political debate unless you’re talking about quackery.
            1. Christopher Smith April 12, 2024 at 5:20 pm

               Being right doesn’t mean squat if nobody believes you are right. It’s not fair, but show me where I am wrong.
               1. Big River Bandido April 13, 2024 at 12:17 am

                  That’s a perfect articulation of the pseudoscience position: science by referendum.

                  It’s fraudulent and no respectable scientist would dignify such a position by sharing a platform with it.
      2. Christopher Smith April 12, 2024 at 3:48 pm

         I see his unwillingness to debate as intellectual cowardice; especially if he cannot win an argument against non-scientist. (The audience here not being RFK, Jr. but the Rogan audience.) If you are right and you have your evidence, then you go in and convince the audience.

         However, I do concede that RFK, Jr. may be more skilled at argumentation and Hotez may fear getting flim-flammed. My response to that however, is that Hotez and other scientists need to sharpen their rhetorical skills, because if they cannot defend their research to a lay audience, then flim-flam is going to win anyway. But by not going on and debating, Hotez not only lets the flim-flam go unchallenged, but also his unwillingness to debate (fairly or not) gives credibility to RFK, Jr. on the point.
         1. pjay April 12, 2024 at 4:47 pm

            I tend to agree with you on this issue. But conversely, Kennedy apparently will not debate Max Blumenthal (or other knowledgeable critics?) on Israel. And when he is challenged on this issue his rhetorical skills and ability to cite evidence collapses into a sputtering propaganda rant.

            That said, I am glad that Kennedy is running. He does challenge the Establishment narrative effectively on some other issues.
            1. Christopher Smith April 12, 2024 at 4:57 pm

               I think its cowardice on RFK. Jr. part not to engage in that debate, but also acknowledge that the circumstances of his father’s assassination has probably influenced his position on Palestine.
               1. nippersmom April 12, 2024 at 5:08 pm

                  How can the circumstances of his father’s assassination possibly justify supporting genocide? How can anything justify supporting genocide?
                  1. Christopher Smith April 12, 2024 at 5:16 pm

                     Sirhan Sirhan, the person who assassinated RFK, Jr., was a Palestinian activist. So yeah, I can see in myself that I would not be too inclined to support a group if a member took my dad from me. My Croatian grandfather was not too fond of Germans or Russians given the events in the war. Is it right? No. Is it human? Yes. I apologize for recognizing nuance in the human condition.

                     That said, yes, it is cowardice on his part not to defend his position on Israel, especially in the middle of a genocide. If RFK, Jr. really wants to be president, he needs to make his case and show that he can lead the country beyond any personal trauma or prejudices he may have.
                     1. CanCyn April 12, 2024 at 5:59 pm

                        The Kennedys do not think that Sirhan Sirhan killed RFK:
                        https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/retropolis/wp/2018/05/26/who-killed-bobby-kennedy-his-son-rfk-jr-doesnt-believe-it-was-sirhan-sirhan/
                        RFK Jr’s pro Israel stance has been discussed aplenty here at NC, it has nothing to do with his father’s death
                     2. Nippermom April 13, 2024 at 11:33 am

                        Holding an entire group of people — including infants— responsible for the alleged crime of one person decades later and supporting the genocide of that group is not reflective of a reasonable or rational human, your “nuance” notwithstanding. Do you use that same nuanced understanding of human nature to justify the actions and policies of Victoria Nuland and the death and misery that have resulted from them? And would your Croatian grandfather really have supported starving the entire populations of Russia and Germany to death, including infants?
         2. nippersmom April 12, 2024 at 5:07 pm

            How do you feel about RFK, JR. refusing to debate Jill Stein on Gaza?
            1. Phenix April 12, 2024 at 7:08 pm

               He debated Dave Smith on Gaza. Dave Smith is comedian and a major player in libertarian politics. He could not get RFK Jr to change his mind on the conflict and that cost Bobbie the libertarian ticket.

               Why would he debate Stein or West? The left is irrelevant. Woke identity politics killed the left. The Greens made themselves irrelevant prior to that.

               I really wanted to see RFK talk to Max again. RFJ Jr interviewed Max on the past which is why I was shocked when RFK Jr came out for Israel … But just follow the money. The Adelson clan is a major supporter of RFK Jr.
      3. Phenix April 12, 2024 at 7:33 pm

         IM Doc gives a better answer but Hotez is an expert in his field. Joe Rogan offered a no time limit debate with RFK Jr. The rules would be agreed upon and RFK Jr said he would send the papers he would discuss. Hotez refused.

         https://youtu.be/d64oMt6Dw9s?si=hvsfRA0sc6-1VTH7

         This is from 5 years ago. Hotez discusses that environmental factors can create autism like diagnoses..Depakote can cross the blood brain barrier.

         I do not think that the original small pox vaccine will cause autism. From what I understand, people are focused on adjuvants in vaccines. Adjuvants that can cross the blood brain barrier.

         A lot of people are labeled anti-vaxx or anti-science because they have basic safety questions. Are adjuvants safe? Is aluminum at any concentration safe? The usual response is that if course they are safe and effective. People ask for the long term studies and they do not get them because they do not exist.
      4. britzklieg April 12, 2024 at 10:10 pm

         Here’s the link, from 2021 about the non-mRNA vaccine(CVorbevax) which Hotez helped develop at the Texas Children’s Hospital. You can see him in the picture:

         https://www.texaschildrens.org/texas-childrens-global-health/programs/vaccine-development

         Here’s another link:

         https://www.texastribune.org/2022/02/10/corbevax-texas-coronavirus-vaccine/

         …whatever, I was right.
      5. britzklieg April 12, 2024 at 10:14 pm

         and another:

         https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2022/08/31/1119947342/whatever-happened-to-the-new-no-patent-covid-vaccine-touted-as-a-global-game-cha
   2. urdsama April 12, 2024 at 5:37 pm

      I feel the “debate bros” approach is one of the reasons we are in such a lousy place as a country and a culture.

      Facts and good science should be listened to, not modern debate spectacles.
3. griffen April 12, 2024 at 3:01 pm

   I have it on the authority from recent social media acquaintances, mostly this being a well educated group of individuals that Russian disinformation is still a key concern for the American elections. And maga supporting Republicans in Congress are doing the deeds for the evil Putin.

   Make it stop …never ever! FFS \ sarc. When workday ends mercifully and quite soon, I plan on posting something from the original piece.
   1. Lambert Strether Post authorApril 12, 2024 at 4:58 pm

      > I have it on the authority from recent social media acquaintances, mostly this being a well educated group of individuals that Russian disinformation is still a key concern for the American elections. And maga supporting Republicans in Congress are doing the deeds for the evil Putin.

      I am coming round to the idea that solid Democrats PMC types actually believe this stuff; it’s not simply cynical manipulation, though it is that also.

      That means Democrats cannot possibly let Trump take office, and as a corollary, whatever — and I mean whatever — prevents Trump from doing so will be justified in their minds. I think a similar sense of “the stakes” pervades the Republicans as well. The issue here is that the Democrats control “the commanding heights” of our financialized economy — press, spooks, much of finance, much of Silicon Valley — and so are in a better position to act on their views. I mean, J6 didn’t come within a million miles of being a coup. No operational capability at all. The Democrats, however, have operational capability, One might wonder what the Democrats are gaming out, like they did in 2020. Not that I’m foily,
      1. JBird4049 April 12, 2024 at 5:27 pm

         >>>I am coming round to the idea that solid Democrats PMC types actually believe this stuff; it’s not simply cynical manipulation, though it is that also.

         So, the Party members propagandized or conned themselves into believing their own lies?

         I can understand my aging boomer mom being brainwashed, which I loathe because of their betrayal of and injury to her, but the instigators?

         Is this like Turd Blossom’s (Karl Rove) fantasy of an empire creating and imposing its own reality on reality by verbal fiat? Not very judicious of them, but it would be a kind of just reward for their damned hubris.
      2. t April 12, 2024 at 5:30 pm

         In cleaning and purging last week, I reread the Trump chapter of The Laundromat . A whole chapter on Trump and Trump is pals with Putin and this is a worth an entire chapter in a book about the Panama papers that never mentions the Podesta Group lobbying for Russia Russia Russia’s Sberbank.
         1. The Rev Kev April 12, 2024 at 6:33 pm

            When the Panama Papers came out they often had an image of Putin in those newspaper accounts of them – the one man not listed in those papers at all.
      3. Feral Finster April 12, 2024 at 6:31 pm

         Most humans’ beliefs are tribal. If the tribe requires them to believe that black is white and cats are dogs, then that is what they will sincerely believe, as long as the tribe requires this.
      4. Benny Profane April 12, 2024 at 6:50 pm

         “I am coming round to the idea that solid Democrats PMC types actually believe this stuff; it’s not simply cynical manipulation, though it is that also.*

         Read the NYT comments. It’s depressing if you accept that these people are better educated and living better than most.
      5. digi_owl April 12, 2024 at 8:12 pm

         Effectively they are high on their own supply?
      6. griffen April 13, 2024 at 1:04 pm

         I may have to choose a different avenue to give the article I referenced above it’s proper due. I prefer to not direct traffic their way , especially based on such a small sampling of the work and writing. It is a substack based collection of their work.

         Some of these articles are quite likely above my pay grade …or perhaps a bit much of the inside baseball rhetoric when it comes to DC ongoings.
   2. playon April 12, 2024 at 5:30 pm

      This echoes my experience on Faceborg. People are all in on evil Putin the mastermind, and they really do believe it.
4. Louis Fyne April 12, 2024 at 3:02 pm

   Video from Israeli social media re. latest round of drone attacks from Lebanon is wild (literally happening right now)

   the obvious step 1 before the real war: make your opponent use up all their missiles before you start using your own
   1. hemeantwell April 12, 2024 at 3:18 pm

      Thanks, Louis, do you have a link? In my search worry about an attack from Iran crowds out Hezbollah drones.
      1. Lee April 12, 2024 at 3:38 pm

         Here’s what purports to be video of event: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AIr8OWIs4Y8
      2. Louis Fyne April 12, 2024 at 4:22 pm

         go to twitter: use search function (you need an acct)

         or look at these relatively fair-minded accounts…

         https://twitter.com/ME_Observer_
         https://twitter.com/IranObserver0
         https://twitter.com/GeromanAT
         1. hemeantwell April 13, 2024 at 7:34 am

            Thanks, Louis. First shot I’ve seen of an Iron Dome draining.
   2. Mark Gisleson April 12, 2024 at 7:30 pm

      Most of the reports I’ve read on Hezbollah’s missile stockpiles make it sound like they’re the Russia of the Middle East. This has the potential to get extremely bad really fast.
5. Lefty Godot April 12, 2024 at 3:45 pm

   Re: Trump up in all the swing states

   Here’s my question: which of the following should we be afraid would lead to a worst case outcome? And maybe what would be the runner-up?
   a. Trump wins, Republicans get control of both houses of Congress
   b. Trump wins, split Congress
   c. Trump wins, Democrats get control of both houses of Congress
   d. Biden wins, Democrats get control of both houses of Congress
   e. Biden wins, split Congress
   f. Biden wins, Republicans get control of both houses of Congress

   I have to confess, the prospect of Republican majorities in both houses of Congress worries me more than who wins the Presidency, but maybe I’m not sufficiently worried about the damage Trump or Biden could do no matter how Congress goes. (Plus I’m still not convinced either Trump or Biden will make it to Election Day.)
   1. Lambert Strether Post authorApril 12, 2024 at 4:49 pm

      I think it depends on how you think of “worst case.” If one is an accelerationist, the answer is different from the answer a meliorist would give,

      There’s also the faint but real possibility of the election being thrown into the House. I don’t think we can know what emerges from that; too much horse-trading and sausage-making.
      1. JBird4049 April 12, 2024 at 5:40 pm

         Maybe the question is how competent or just how flexible the political leadership is. If the election went to the House… well, just how many people actually know about the possibility of this happening as it last occurred two centuries ago? I can see millions of people running to Wikipedia or lawyers pulling out their old dusty class texts frantically figuring what comes next a after the election.
      2. Tom Doak April 12, 2024 at 6:30 pm

         The rules set by the Constitution of “the election being thrown to the House” are worth re-reading. Each state gets ONE vote. So it would take horse-trading at the state delegation level to change the outcome.
      3. Lefty Godot April 12, 2024 at 8:32 pm

         The range of things that could end up in a worst case scenario is going to be different for each person, but I would include things like (in descending order) nuclear war, other large scale overseas war, economic collapse (probably with ruling class being the only ones bailed out to some extent), privatization of Medicare and Social Security, massive cuts in benefits for the poorest (e.g., Medicaid and SNAP), much worse inflation, abolition or gutting of good federal agencies (FTC, EPA, NLRB, Post Office, National Parks, IRS, etc.)…basically all the things that would hurt ordinary people outside the culture wars sphere.

         I know climate change is an existential threat that the wrong President could ruin our chances of getting under control, but I don’t see any of the candidates making good faith arguments that they can or are really willing to deal with that meaningfully.

         So if my vote for Jill Stein causes your favorite candidate to lose my state by 1 vote and that tips the Electoral College to the other candidate, how much disaster will I be responsible for causing?
         1. Michael Mck April 13, 2024 at 12:55 pm

            The threat of losing that vote making them change is the only power you have. The people who vote for a major party are those who should be ridiculed.
   2. EricFromGR April 13, 2024 at 5:24 am

      As a non-US foreigner I do have an opinion what would be the best outcome for the majority of humanity. That would be the outcome, which accelerates the decline and implosion of the empire most. That would be outcome d. Give all the power to the PMC and “deep state” to self destruct faster and more efficiently.
      Maybe we (all of us) have a small chance to work together to mitigate the Jackpot this way. Just sayin…
      1. ashley April 15, 2024 at 4:50 pm

         the PMC / ‘deep state’ is going to get us all killed in a nuclear war while they hide in their bunkers. even if youre not in the US it doesnt matter, we are all connected via trade and its unlikely once nukes start flying that multiple countries will take advantage of the chaos to settle old scores.

         we have no viable options. biden is going to start ww3 since hes a pawn of israel and trump is a psychotic christofascist (well, conveniently ‘christian’ for the followers). and third parties arent capable of winning the electoral college which is what decides the presidency. wjat a ‘democracy’ we have!
   3. griffen April 13, 2024 at 7:58 am

      I’m going to choose option d., only because I lean a little more historically to the conservative R of that team ( meaning more like a Bush 41st or Reagan but I was a mere kid in the 80s ). Plus with an option like this, it appears more likely that Joe does not see 2028 as a living person.

      Democrats do not understand inflation, for starters. They have yet to grasp what these inflationary trends are doing to an average American household & further their deflections are insincere. I know what Republicans are, a well understood evil. Democrats harbor some intent to place average people under a surveillance agenda, that’s my fear and it’s out of Orwell or a PK Dick novel that Silicon Valley just can’t wait to further deploy.
6. notabanker April 12, 2024 at 4:01 pm

   Once again, the MSM trumpeters (I guess that is a Freudian metaphor there) really do not understand the level of vitriol out on the street for this current admin. It it goes way beyond just Biden the person, or the DNC for that matter. It is entirely symbolic of every single thing that is going wrong impacting day to day lives.

   To be clear, I am not speaking on behalf of ‘most’ Americans, or any particular class etc… just from my own experience and people that I have talked to over the last month or so. In just the last couple of days, 2 completely unsolicited comments: Someone I know very well was openly complaining about getting a letter from HR with zero bonus highlighting they “missed their numbers”. Of course they didn’t miss any stock price or profitability targets, nor stock buyback targets, nor increased dividend payment. And this person just happened to know off the top of their head that the CEO’s dividend payment for that quarter was bigger than their entire annual salary. I literally didn’t say a word, just had it all thrown straight at me. Second, another “I am not a Trump supporter and didn’t vote for him last time around, but he has got to get in there and fix this mess because this current admin is a disaster”.

   In the grocery store for the first time in a few weeks to pick up 3 things yesterday, omg prices keep going up and quality of fresh food in just downright shoddy. No one was buying produce. No one, I mean not a single person, buying meat of any kind. This used to be a high end store and it still in a fairly wealthy neighborhood.

   These are people that would rather being talking about their kids, or families, or vacations or whatever, never politics, but the boiling point is becoming clear here. If folks think Biden is just gonna be who it needs to be because not Trump, they are going to get destroyed if there is a genuine election where actual votes are counted.
   1. griffen April 13, 2024 at 7:45 am

      The economy is strong and the US consumer just can’t help themselves, continuing to spend as the greenshoots abound everywhere one turns in this best of times …\Sarc

      CNBC commentary starting to sound too much like a Biden administration sounding board, in recent weeks it does seem. But as we all know Democracy (!) will fail to exist if Joe Biden is not elected to a second term as President. A voucher for a future $600 will go to every American who can forward that to a needy man in Ukraine. Billions for Zelensky!
7. Lee April 12, 2024 at 4:17 pm

   J.D. Vance: The Math on Ukraine Doesn’t Add Up New York Times (at free archive.ph link)
   1. Screwball April 12, 2024 at 4:41 pm

      I would love to read the comments. Given it’s the paper of the PMC, and they are still blaming Putin for just about everything (plus he might be a Trumper), I’m guessing Vance got quite the ear full.
      1. anonymous April 12, 2024 at 5:05 pm

         https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/12/opinion/jd-vance-ukraine.html#commentsContainer
      2. Zar April 12, 2024 at 5:15 pm

         It’s a real eye-opener. Scanning the top fifty Reader & New Comments, I see just one person who agrees with J.D. Vance; and I think a word cloud made from the comments section would give the best real estate to “Neville Chamberlain.”
         1. Screwball April 12, 2024 at 6:00 pm

            Thanks. I’m not surprised. Like here, I really enjoy the comment sections because I “think” it gives me an idea of what the “pulse of the people” are thinking.

            I told these sort of people Ukraine wasn’t winning the war long ago, and I sure got an ear full, so I quit. They still think they are winning, but these very same people also tell me (a list);

            There is no genocide in Gaza
            Ukraine is winning the war
            Putin is controlling Trump and over half of the GOP
            Republicans are the only congress people who take bribes
            The Arizona SC decision on abortion is fascism by definition
            Joe Biden is the second coming of FDR
            Adam Schiff would be a great president
            Jan 6th was an insurrection
            Our democracy is in peril and will be gone if we don’t elect Biden
            Biden is in fine health and Donald Trump has dementia
            Keith Olbermann is a national treasure
            There is no such thing as Antifa
            Dems are trying to fix things but the GOP won’t let them
            Mayo Pete would be a great president
            Putin blew up the pipeline
            The safety issues with trains, planes, and ships are Trumps fault
            Hillary did great things for Haiti
            Greenwald, Taibbi, Aaron Mate, etc., are all on Putin,s payroll
            Rachael Maddow is a top notch journalist

            I could go on, and I’m forgetting many others. And these people think they are the mental giants of the world. I will give them one thing – they sure are entertaining.
            1. ashley April 15, 2024 at 4:59 pm

               The Arizona SC decision on abortion is fascism by definition
               –
               Jan 6th was an insurrection
               Our democracy is in peril and will be gone if we don’t elect Biden
               Biden is in fine health and Donald Trump has dementia
               –
               There is no such thing as Antifa

               the arizona SC decision is fascist and a sexist control of women as property, jan 6th was absolutely an insurrection only it was a failed one (kinda like that beer hall putsch), our democracy is absolutely in peril only biden nor trump cant fix it, both biden and trump are in bad health, and antifa isnt an organization but a belief: being against fascism. i and most of my friends are ‘antifa’. we dont hold meetings, we are not organized, but if fascism were to come to my state (luckily it has not, save for some wimpy patriot front stickers in the northern more populated parts of the state) you bet your behind we would be in the streets fighting it.
         2. Benny Profane April 12, 2024 at 6:53 pm

            They “filter” the comments. I can testify first hand.
      3. Mangelwurtzel April 12, 2024 at 5:55 pm

         I read the disappointing comments section. It’s running 95% anti-Putin / Trump conflation diatribes, MSNBC-Cold War II-style breathless hysteria. Appeasement! Chamberlain! Little on the substance or history of the conflict, nor realistic assessment of the ongoing tragedy. Shows how much well-produced propaganda is worth, eh?
         1. Screwball April 12, 2024 at 6:08 pm

            Thank you.

            Shows how much well-produced propaganda is worth, eh?

            No doubt. Yet, those same people would tell us we are in a cult, are brainwashed, and are far too stupid to figure out the truth.

            Oh, and don’t ever tell them they live in an echo chamber bubble of information – they get really really mad (kind of fun to do though).

            What a world.
      4. Mark Gisleson April 12, 2024 at 7:54 pm

         I would love to see the NYTimes subscription numbers broken down by state.

         This is the kind of self-destruct button that anyone working in Circulation could push at any time. Another Berliner NPR moment as an insider reveals that the NYTimes hasn’t had a subscriber in Oklahoma since 2007, and has never been read by anyone in Idaho ever, at least not that they can prove.

         I sometimes console myself by remembering that all the facts and events that torture my psyche are equally if not better known to the people who lie to us about them. You cannot write or censor in opposition to something without understanding what it is that you oppose. I’m pretty sure we’re going to find that most of these folks have been taking the same meds the names of which will go on to become as well known as pervitin, the 7% solution* and/or eye of newt.

         *P.S. to Lambert, my favorite subplot in the Aubrey books is the eagerness with which everyone self-medicated themselves. Widely available vape pens would have shot chain through a full rigging of subplots. [No, I haven’t quite mastered the jargon yet and have a very Maturin-like opinion of sails]
   2. CA April 12, 2024 at 6:05 pm

      The New York Times comment section has become shockingly conservative * -intolerant over several years but especially through this administration.

      * “Conservative” whether Democrat or Republican
      1. ashley April 15, 2024 at 5:03 pm

         its also leftist intolerant. im far left and ive been banned from their comments section for being perceived as a ‘bot’. im just autistic and i type quick…

         theyre a neoliberal eco chamber that only accepts ‘mainstream’ liberal views. anything outside of that LEFT or right is banned.

         for what its worth, im also banned from the garbage rag the NYP, and reddit, and instagram, and i was in FB jail for a long time.

         the spooks HATE leftists. and they run the media.
   3. Benny Profane April 12, 2024 at 6:55 pm

      View from another side: https://youtu.be/H88i1yMk68Q?si=v2rIj8uVMIw0y6Cx
8. Lambert Strether Post authorApril 12, 2024 at 4:47 pm

   I added some orts and scraps.
9. ChrisFromGA April 12, 2024 at 5:28 pm

   Market update:

   The great AI bubble is showing signs of leakage. The glorious run to SP 5500 appears to be momentarily off course; however, I have faith in greed to win the day.

   The credit markets are where the real action is. Ten-year treasury yields closed the week above 4.5% and it appears to be on a glorious run of its own to 5 percent. Turning whatever is left of rate-cut fantasies into absurdity, kind of like my adolescent “dream date with Shania Twain” musings.

   Meanwhile … channelling my best Howard Cosell voice:

   Down goes Powell!! Down goes Powell!!

   Not quite the “Thrilla in Manila” but the Manila Folder appears to be on the canvas and the ref is doing the mandatory countdown.

   https://andscape.com/features/foreman-frazier-at-50-revisiting-the-shocking-iconic-heavyweight-title-fight/
   1. Glen April 12, 2024 at 6:53 pm

      Remember what happen when Powell said he would raise rates under Trump?

      Trump attacks Fed Chair Powell’s ‘horrendous lack of vision,’ calls for huge rate cut
      https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/trump-attacks-fed-chair-powell-s-horrendous-lack-vision-calls-n1043931

      Didn’t he threaten to fire Powell if the Fed raised rates? I wonder what he would have done if food prices had gone up along with corporate earns? Do you think he would have called out greedflation?

      But with Sec of Treasury Mnuchin (the foreclosure king), who knows what would have happen.
   2. SocalJimObjects April 12, 2024 at 9:00 pm

      AI is still hot, https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/news/5182611. The market is just taking a pause on its way to making the wealth gap even more obscene.
10. steppenwolf fetchit April 12, 2024 at 5:44 pm

    . . . chopping down trees to stop Avian Flu . . . . on what theory? On the theory birds perch in trees so, no trees equals no birds equals no flu? What do they do about the ground dwelling birds when they discover that some birds are ground dwelling and don’t need trees?
11. Tom Stone April 12, 2024 at 6:22 pm

    I have not yet been able to stop thinking that “No one could possibly be that stupid and irresponsible” despite the almost daily reminders from the CDC and FDA that they are that stupid and irresponsible.
12. Feral Finster April 12, 2024 at 6:28 pm

    “A long-running Gallup survey [shows] that the majority of Americans would prefer that politicians compromise rather than ‘sticking to their beliefs.’”

    O please. Politicians compromise on their stated beliefs all the time, the better to sell us out.
13. Benny Profane April 12, 2024 at 6:39 pm

    As per bored of Trump:

    “The East Palestine visit, let us remember, was not just good media, it signaled a turnaround.”

    And don’t forget the optics of the Biden, Obama, and Clinton 25 mil fundraiser at Radio City while Trump went to the wake of a recently shot NYC officer. Brilliant. No anti Israeli protesters on the sidewalk of that funeral home.
    1. The Rev Kev April 12, 2024 at 6:51 pm

       Bonus points for when Democrat NY Governor Kathleen Hochul was told to stay away from that funeral but she fronted up in her motorcade anyway, only to be forced away by the police there.
       1. Benny Profane April 12, 2024 at 6:57 pm

          Imagine if Letitia James showed up.
14. The Rev Kev April 12, 2024 at 6:46 pm

    Working link for “House finally passes surveillance bill after three stumbles” article at-

    https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/04/12/congress/government-surveillance-702-house-gop-pass-fisa-johnson-00151946

    Johnson seems to have become quite that back-flip artist the past several weeks like with the $61 billion to the Ukraine and now FISA. The only thing that he will not back-flip on is Israel, the country he swore loyalty to just after becoming Speaker. Certainly Trump is not a fan of FISA as it was used – wrongly – to spy on his campaign in an attempt to wreck his Presidential run back in 2016 and for all we know, is has already been used again on Trump already this time around.
    1. Screwball April 12, 2024 at 7:16 pm

       I hope they vacate the seat to Johnson, and keep doing it until there are none left.

       535 random people out of a phone book would be an improvement over these people.

       I know that’s crazy talk but one can dream. Yea, dreams, like the American Dream. Carlin told us about that one.
    2. ChrisFromGA April 12, 2024 at 7:34 pm

       Johnson is blocked on the Ukraine aid because he knows that Madge will turf his ass out if he brings it to the floor

       He’s yammering and bloviating on maybe crafting a new package based on loans, or seized fentanyl shipments for Zee.

       You go, MTG. My vote for woman of the year.
15. Jason Boxman April 12, 2024 at 6:53 pm

    LOL I just gave Kagi my credit card yesterday. It’s month to month, so I guess I can cancel. I have to use reader view to read that rant, because the author I guess didn’t bother with stylesheets so paragraphs are 1,000 miles long.

    For products this niche, I don’t think you can afford to be running multiple niche products at once. Your developers are going to be running far too ragged to keep them all going. Last I could find Kagi employs about 16 employees, half full time. Presumably not every single one of those 8 or so full timers are web devs. That’s not a lot of people to throw at this many things.

    I definitely worry about this. The Orion browser is a nice alternative to Chrome based browsers, but a browser is a heavy lift to implement even using an existing render, in this case, the one Safari uses.

    Did I mention that the t-shirts don’t even have the Kagi name on them? Just the Kagi dog mascot, who is at this point the only thing I like about Kagi, to the point where if I wasn’t worried people would try to talk to me about Kagi I’d opt for one of the shirts myself. Great artist, whoever did this. Terrible financial choice to start a whole t-shirt business to make 20,000 free t-shirts that do not even get your name out there.

    It is disturbing that they can’t manage funds though.

    Kagi was not paying sales tax for two years and they finally have to pay up. They just…didn’t do it. Didn’t think it was important? I have no idea why.

    When I signed up I saw this; They’re not collecting tax in at least some areas. Not for me.

    As it turns out, Kagi was founded originally as an AI company, who later pivoted to search.

    That sucks; I didn’t know that, they do have an AI search feature, including an AI summary feature as part of their browser plugin. I haven’t messed with this yet.

    They have “FastGPT”, where their focus is having a ChatGPT style service that is focused on being fast, not accurate. And boy, it sure isn’t, I messed around with this for a while and it very confidently gave me a lot of extremely inaccurate information about old sitcoms.

    Ugh, maybe I will cancel my subscription. Sigh. I almost gave them $150 to fund their browser because Vivaldi has had broken tab switching for over a year now in every released version, and the new Opera is garbage and owned by some bizarre Chinese billionaire, and that leaves me with slower Firefox, I guess, which also supports MRU.

    I hate technology. Stuff just gets worse every year. Apple is like a trillion dollar company and Swype is still garbage in 2024. In 2024!

    Sigh.

    Thanks for posting that, I guess I give up on a Kagi then. Sounds kind of horrific, the founder is all in on AI. Ugh. And that means their Orion browser is probably gonna die eventually too. Ugh. I hate this world. Opera supported MRU tabs correctly forever, then bought by a company that violates your privacy, and Vivaldi can’t get it right and keeps adding more and more tab management features when the basic stuff doesn’t work right. Ugh. Sigh. Rage. The Internet is powered by rage.
16. Benny Profane April 12, 2024 at 7:02 pm

    Watching the news tonight, it’s amazing how everyone in the MSM are pushing the Iran Will Attack Israel at any moment story. Even my local news, who I like for the weather, spent five minutes on it. BBC, maybe ten minutes. Of course, PBS News hour lead story. Who hands down these scripts? No doubt the Russians are counseling, patience, don’t fall victim to these traps. In due time.
    1. ChrisFromGA April 12, 2024 at 7:41 pm

       It’s awfully similar to how they just “knew” Russia was going to invade Ukraine back in ‘22.

       The Menendez brothers would like to get at least some recognition as pioneers of this sort of victimization strategy.
    2. Ben Panga April 12, 2024 at 9:57 pm

       Top story on The Guardian website is “Iranian attack on Israel expected ‘sooner rather than later’, says Joe Biden”.

       Not a story on The Guardian website is “Israel attacks on various states expected to continue without complaint from The West”.
    3. Daryl April 13, 2024 at 12:40 am

       One thing you won’t hear anyone say: “Iran has a right to self-defense”
17. The Rev Kev April 12, 2024 at 7:37 pm

    “Google drafts search engine to “ground” AI results in truth”

    I suppose that it is too much of a stretch to withdraw AI until it is capable of giving accurate answers and does not make up things as it goes along.
    1. Ben Panga April 12, 2024 at 9:59 pm

       I doubt it, as the tech giants are all racing each-other to get ahead in the AI game. Racing to where, and whether it’s a good idea, do not seem to be considerations.
18. Wukchumni April 12, 2024 at 9:52 pm

    I sped up a little on Hwy 395 passing by Ridgecrest & Naval Air Weapons Station (NAWS) China Lake yesterday in making my ride a less tempting target for something wicked this way comes in a nuclear vein rain down upon me, it being the only nearby attack site on my semi-circular sojourn around the Sierra.

    I can’t believe I even gave it any thought, but my Spidey-Senses are on full tingle, a couple of theocracies* practically begging for an exchange, and how would the world react to the Pandoras Box being opened again almost right on time for the fourth turning?

    * Neither officially denying nor admitting to having nuclear weapons

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