2:00PM Water Cooler 5/20/2024

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Patient readers, this is a little truncated, for now, because I allowed my iPad, which is also my alarm clock, to run out of power, so I didn’t wake up on time. Nevertheless, there is already material of interest…. More soon! –lambert.

Bird Song of the Day

Eastern Meadowlark (Eastern), Rio Hondo; Laguna Atascosa National Wildlife Refuge. “Courtship, display, or copulation.”

* * *

In Case You Might Miss…

(1) New Biobot, we hardly knew ye.

(2) New Cohen stole $30,000 from Trump.

(3) Kennedy voters interviewed.

(4) Small beer.

* * *

Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

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2024

Less than a half a year to go!

RCP Poll Averages, May 10:

National results static, but most of the Swing States (more here) are incrementally, but steadily, moving Trump’s way. Pennsylvania leans more Trump this week than last. Of course, it goes without saying that these are all state polls, therefore bad, and most of the results are within the margin of error. Now, if either candidate starts breaking away in points, instead of tenths of a point…. NOTE I changed the notation: Up and down arrows for increases or decreases over last week, circles for no change. Red = Trump. Blue would be Biden if he were leading anywhere, but he isn’t.

* * *

Trump (R) (Bragg/Merchan): “Michael Cohen Cops to Stealing $30,000 From Trump” [Daily Beast]. “The testimony from the Manhattan district attorney’s lead witness against Donald Trump took a dive Monday morning, when the ex-president’s former consigliere got cornered during cross-examination and forced to acknowledge that he overbilled the Trump Organization by $30,000. In a heated exchange, defense lawyer Todd Blanche flipped a switch and went back to his days as a federal prosecutor—grilling Cohen on the way he’d gotten away with a crime. ‘And you told multiple prosecutors in the district attorney’s office that story, right?’ Blanche asked. ‘Yes, sir,’ Cohen responded. ‘Did you ever have to plead guilty to larceny?’ Blanche continued. ‘No, sir.’ ‘Did you ever pay back the Trump Organization for the money you stole from them?’ ‘No, sir.’ In just a few minutes, Trump’s lead defense lawyer managed to show jurors that a trial about Trump’s alleged business fraud relies on the truthful testimony of a man who was engaged in fraud of his own.” • A convoluted story involving reimbursement (!) to an IT firm called Red Finch….

Trump (R) (Bragg/Merchan): “The Latest | Trump’s criminal trial set to enter final stretch as cross-examination of Cohen resumes” [Associated Press]. “The judge in Donald Trump’s hush money trial declined Monday to broaden the scope of testimony that the defense can elicit from a potential expert witness, Bradley A. Smith, a former Bill Clinton-appointed Republican Federal Election Commission member. Judge Juan M. Merchan echoed his pretrial ruling that, if called, Smith can give general background on the FEC — its purpose, background and the laws it enforces — and the definitions of such terms as ‘campaign contribution.’ Merchan rejected the defense’s renewed efforts to have Smith define three terms in federal election law, saying it would breach rules preventing expert witnesses from interpreting the law. Nor can Smith opine on whether the former president’s alleged actions violate those laws, Merchan said. If Smith were to testify about those issues, Merchan said, the prosecution would then be permitted to call an expert of its own. That would result in a ‘battle of the experts,’ the judge said, ‘which would only serve to confuse and not assist the jury.'” • Since a campaign finance violation could be the as-yet-unrevealed object offense that converts Trump’s alleged business records violations into felonies, I think Smith’s testimony should be narrow, not broad. If I wanted to claim bias by Merchan, this is IMNSHO the strongest example.

Trump (R) (Bragg/Merchan): “Opinion: I changed my mind about the strength of the prosecution’s case against Donald Trump. Here’s why” [CNN]. “What the prosecution left out of its case, however, is a second key witness to establish that Trump intended to falsify his business records to cover up another crime. Cohen’s testimony so far served to prove the elements of the alleged “other crime” [object offense] that the hush money payments resulted from a conspiracy to commit [a] campaign interference or to make an [b] illegal campaign contribution.” As readers know, I don’t buy [a] because nobody ever cites to a statute that distinguishes campaign interference from mere campaigning (see McCarthy immediately below), and [b] is regulated by Federal law, so I don’t think a state should be involved. Making the defense attorney author’s perspective on the first crime, the business records crime, all the more interesting: “But the DA also must prove the actual business records crime, for which Trump has been charged with 34 counts of falsifying business records in the first degree. (He pleaded not guilty). How I see it, Cohen’s testimony only satisfied half the equation beyond a reasonable doubt. According to Cohen’s testimony, there were three people in the room at the Trump Tower meeting after the 2016 election to discuss his expected reimbursement for Daniels’ payment: Cohen, Trump and Allen Weisselberg, then-chief financial officer of the Trump Organization. Given Cohen’s credibility problems, it would make a stronger case for the DA’s office to call a second witness to back up his claims….. Weisselberg could be the linchpin to validate Cohen’s claims about Trump agreeing to reimburse him through Trump Organization, as a business expense…. But the prosecutors have a problem. Weisselberg also has credibility issues… [T]he safest thing for [the prosecution] to do is not call Weisselberg at all. It leaves a hole in the prosecution’s case, and that also could leave room for reasonable doubt…. It’s unlikely we will ever see Trump take the stand to explain his version. … While Cohen did an efficient job testifying about the first half of the scheme, to influence the election by buying Daniels’ story and keeping it quiet, he doesn’t know what happened when the business records that are the subject of the 34-count indictment were created. He wasn’t working for the Trump Organization in 2017 when the reimbursements began. He was a lawyer and not a bookkeeper. If one juror has uncertainty about whether Trump was involved with how Cohen’s payback was recorded on the records and by whom, there will be a hung jury and Trump will walk free. Madeleine Westerhout, Trump’s personal secretary in the Oval Office, gave the defense team its biggest gift: She testified that Trump sometimes multitasked and that she had seen him sign a bunch of checks while on the phone or engaging in other activities. The defense can easily argue that Trump was running the presidency in DC and no longer micromanaging what was going on in New York at the Trump Organization. If he signed checks put in front of him, they could have easily been part of a busy work pile to be FedExed back to the company with Trump barely paying attention. If so, there would have been no intent to falsify the business records.”

Trump (R) (Bragg/Merchan): “Alvin Bragg’s Outrageous Conspiracy Theory” [Andrew McCarthy, National Review]. “Alvin Bragg, Manhattan’s elected progressive Democratic district attorney, is trying to hoodwink the jury into believing that (a) it is a crime for a candidate for public office to conspire with others to suppress politically damaging information, and (b) that Donald Trump was charged with such a conspiracy in the indictment that has resulted in the ongoing trial. In point of fact, there is no such information-suppression conspiracy crime in the law and the indictment against Trump does not charge a conspiracy — it charges 34 counts of falsifying business records with fraudulent intent to commit or conceal another crime.” • Worth a read, because it’s all still true, even after a month of trial.

Trump (R) (Bragg/Merchan): “A Trump Conviction Depends on Proving More Than a Hush-Money Coverup” [Wall Street Journal]. “Manhattan prosecutors have framed their case against Donald Trump as a simple story about the criminal coverup of a sex scandal. But to win a conviction, they would have to convince jurors that Trump orchestrated the coverup with the intent of concealing another crime. Jury deliberations in the first criminal trial of a former U.S. president could begin as early as this week. Closing arguments will be the prosecution’s last chance to spell out the alleged second crime [which was not done in the indictment, note well] and convince jurors that Trump intended to commit it.” And: ” Falsifying business records is a felony in New York only if it is done to conceal or commit another crime. Bragg’s indictment didn’t say what that other crime was. And prosecutors still haven’t identified the specific offense to jurors.” Fifth Amendment: “No person shall be held to answer for a capital, or otherwise infamous crime, unless on a presentment or indictment of a grand jury.” I just don’t see how a misdemeanor can be converted into a felony by presenting the object offense that does so in closing arguments. That should have been in the indictment. More: “A conviction requires proof of Trump’s criminal intent. That could mean proving that when Trump was in the White House and signing checks made out to Cohen, he was intending to defraud the voting public. And it also means proving that Trump knew Cohen’s arrangement with [Stormy] Daniels violated campaign finance rules but approved it anyway. Some legal observers following the case have said the evidence of Trump’s intent is thin. ‘I’m really having a problem getting around who was intended to be defrauded by internal records that weren’t being used to anyone’s advantage or disadvantage,’ said [Michael Scotto, a New York-area defense lawyer and former longtime prosecutor. More: “Prosecutors say that payment—from Cohen’s own pocket and approved by the former president—amounted to an illegal campaign contribution to Trump that violated federal election law because it was well over what was then the $2,700 limit on individual donations to a presidential candidate. And that, in turn, constituted a conspiracy under state election law.” Which would explain why the Feds never charged him. Oh, wait… More: “Whether federal campaign finance rules apply to the hush money Cohen paid is a contested area of law.” • Grounds for appeal?

Trump (R) (Bragg/Merchan): “Will Trump Run as a Felon? A Big 2024 Question Will Soon Be Answered” [New York Times]. “In Trumpian shorthand, based on his previous statements, it will be a “total exoneration” if not guilty and “election interference” if convicted.” Where’s the lie? More: “But the Trump campaign, with a flair for the dramatic — and a limited travel schedule, owing to the trial — has scheduled a large rally in the Bronx on Thursday, the same day it is possible a jury could deliver a verdict, which could create a combustible situation for a country where violence has become an ugly part of the political landscape.” • Watch out for agent provocateurs. Frankly, I hope they put Trump in jail. He’d gain ten points.

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Trump (R): “Donald Trump slams teleprompter blunder in Minnesota speech plagued by issues” [Daily Express]. “Donald Trump brutally mocked Joe Biden after a technical error at the start of his speech in Minnesota. The former President put his day off from his hush money trial to good use, attending son Barron’s high high school graduation in Florida before attending a Republican fundraiser. Trump headlined the state GOP’s annual Lincoln Reagan dinner in St. Paul, which coincides with the party’s state convention, in the traditionally Democratic state. After getting up on stage in Minnesota at 9pm EST, Trump confessed that there was a behind-the-scenes issue that could have caused chaos. ‘Before I got up the teleprompter fell down,’ he stated, before joking: ‘Well done fellas. Then they wanna knw why I don’t pay the bill.’ Trump then used the opportunity to mock Biden, who he will debate one-on-one next month, after his rival was led off stage at the White House on Monday after making ‘brief, incoherent marks’ following a speech on Monday. He continued: “Suppose that happened to Biden. He’d go like this – ‘bye’. He’d leave. ‘l’ll stay with you for an hour, we’ll have some fun.’… Later on, Trump pointed out that the stage kept tilting to the left, then shouted: ‘This place is falling apart. What a c—-y contractor.’ ‘This sucker is really tenuous. I’ve never had this before, that a podium is falling down.'” • Hmm. Anti-union subtext? (Nevertheless, hard to imagine another candidate riffing like that.) The “led off stage” part seems to be from Sky News; here’s the video, FWIW (I don’t think much).

Trump (R): “Trump agrees to third debate as NBC scrambles to catch up with rivals” [Semafor]. “But on Friday, the former president announced on Truth Social that he had agreed to participate in an additional debate, this one hosted by NBC News and Spanish-language network Telemundo. The third proposed debate caught the Biden campaign by surprise, and was the result of behind-the-scenes discussions between the Trump campaign and NBC News without the Biden team’s participation.” • The League of Women Voters should give the Trump campaign a call. Trump could accept and put Biden in the position of turning them down!

Trump (R): “Donald Trump’s 7 Debate Demands Revealed” [Babylon Bee]. “1. Benny Hill music must be played whenever Biden wanders around the stage.”

* * *

Biden (D): “Biden Says He Was Still VP During COVID and Obama Sent Him to ‘Fix It'” [Daily Beast]. “President Joe Biden erroneously claimed on Sunday he was still serving as vice president during the COVID-19 pandemic. Speaking at a dinner for the NAACP in Detroit, Michigan, Biden went on a tangent proclaiming he was on the ground in the state to help out as the virus raged on, at the request of former President Barack Obama. ‘And when I was vice president, things were kind of bad during the pandemic,’ Biden said. ‘And what happened was, Barack said to me, ‘Go to Detroit, and help fix it.’ Well the poor mayor, he spent more time with me than he thought he was ever going to have to. God love you.'” • Wowers. Biden erases Omicron (although you’d never know it from CDC’s charts, see below).

Biden (D): “Biden Trips on Stage at Fallen Officer’s Event” [Newsweek]. “President Joe Biden appeared to trip on stage on Wednesday while attending an event in Washington, D.C., to honor fallen officers. The video, taken from a distance, shows the president heading to the stage at the event commemorating National Peace Officers Memorial Day, which honors law enforcement officials who died in the line of duty, and slightly stumbling as he walks up one of the stairs. A photograph taken close to the stage as Biden walked up the stairs in front of the U.S. Capitol building appeared to show the stumble, as well.”

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Biden (D): “OK, Now What?” [Brian Beutler, Off Message]. “But then [Biden’s] progress [after the successful State of the Union speech] stalled. In most averages, he still trails, to say nothing of enjoying a two- or three-point lead with favorables trending in the right direction…. I do think it will soon be time to revive the alternate-ticket conversation in some form…. There’s obviously a level of underperformance that would make resolute Biden supporters admit he’s not the ideal candidate. What if Democrats mount a new offensive, try a bunch of different things to upend the race, and they all fail? What if Trump opens up a three point lead? Five points? If Biden were down by an unbeatable margin on the eve of the convention, would all of his ride-or-die supporters really have full confidence that he should remain the nominee?… I’d make it someone’s job, both on the campaign and in the White House, to keep a daily-updated menu of free-media ideas that I and my surrogates could execute quickly, so that the overwhelming majority of information people were hearing about me wasn’t coming from Donald Trump and his army of propagandists.” • Rather a damp squib.

Biden (D): “Clyburn seeking to bolster Biden support among Black voters with swing-state tour” [The Hill]. • Yeah, that should do it.

* * *

Kennedy (I):

President Trump, Junior here, we disagree on many issues, but I want you to know how much I admire your hard-headed courage for sticking to your guns on your Covid vax, despite all the evidence.

We made this T-shirt as a tribute to Operation Warp Speed, which you have described… pic.twitter.com/ZarZ1OgnlT

— Robert F. Kennedy Jr (@RobertKennedyJr) May 19, 2024

Clever, given that there’s overlap between Trump’s base and Kennedy’s on both anti-vax and “non-compliance” generally (which seems to be conservative-speak for refusing non-pharmaceutical interventions like masking and quarantines. “Infect thy neighbor as thyself,” as Jesus said). Kennedy has found a wedge issue, in that Trump’s Operation Warp Speed (OWS) produced the vaccines that Biden based his Covid policy on (while never crediting Trump). It will be interesting to see how Kennedy continues to exploit this issue, and how Trump and Biden respond. (Personally, I regard OWS as one of the few unequivocally good deeds Trump has ever done in his life, and a seperate issue from the mandates, which Trump should never have imposed.)

Kennedy (I): “RFK Jr.’s fight for presidential debate seat shows the two-party system ‘is not working'” [FOX]. “In an interview with Maria Bartiromo on ‘Sunday Morning Futures,’ RFK went on to say that he predicts he will qualify for the 270 electoral votes’ threshold to get onto the 2024 presidential election ballot.” • Could be, with luck. RFK’s ballot effort has been surprisingly canny and effective so far. Commentary:

Robert F. Kennedy Jr Says He is Now ‘In Discussions with CNN’ to Join the Debate Stage w/ Trump & Biden

“I qualify for the debates. They made a public offer. We consider that a contract and we’re in discussion with CNN now.”@RobertKennedyJr pic.twitter.com/RKGkOVaLRn

— Chief Nerd (@TheChiefNerd) May 19, 2024

Kennedy (I): “RFK Jr. supporters: from Trump deserters to ex-Democrats, they’re hungry for change” [Reuters]. “Republicans paint independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr as a radical liberal, and Democrats say he is being financed and manipulated by right-wing donors to hurt U.S. President Joe Biden’s reelection bid. But interviews with Kennedy supporters show they are not interested in labels, especially those prescribed by the major political parties they have left behind. Kennedy is drawing supporters from both sides of the political divide. Some voted for Republican candidate Donald Trump in the last two elections but are now backing Kennedy. Others are disillusioned progressives ready to cast aside Biden, the incumbent. Most see Kennedy, a scion of the famed Democratic family, much as he portrays himself – a rare truth-teller committed to tackling corruption and powerful lobbying groups in Washington.” Interviews with Kennedy supporters (good!). Former Trump supporter: “RFK Jr is a better Trump without all the chaos that comes with it. He doesn’t need to go on social media crying all day. (Trump has) pride, narcissism, pettiness, infighting with good, strong conservatives. When I saw Ron DeSantis and RFK Jr, I said, ‘In a perfect world, these two will be a team together.’ I still would have voted for RFK Jr even if he had a ‘D’ (Democrat) to his name, because I don’t care about the titles.” Former Biden supporter: “He points to this corrupt system that we have where the pharmaceutical industry runs the regulatory agencies that are supposed to be regulating them…. The (Democratic National Committee) has become a party of pro-war, pro-censorship, elitism. It’s more interested in protecting the interest of corporations and corporate donors.” • Very interesting and well worth a read.

Pandemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

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Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

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Maskstravaganza

WHO promotes baggy blues [bangs head on desk]:

#WearAMask when in crowded indoor spaces to help you stay safe from #COVID19, flu and other respiratory illnesses. pic.twitter.com/hYRnQ0CA7C

— World Health Organization (WHO) Western Pacific (@WHOWPRO) May 20, 2024

Testing and Tracking

“From Raw Data to Actionable Insights: Biobot’s Evolution of Public Data Sharing” [Biobot Analytics]. “With the abundance of publicly available wastewater data and our shift to contextualized respiratory risk reports, we are sunsetting our public data visualization platform (www.biobot.io/data). This evolution represents Biobot’s commitment to maximizing the value of wastewater data. We believe that by adding context and expert analysis, we can empower individuals, communities, and public health officials to take proactive steps towards a healthier future.” • I understand the business decision, given CDC’s choice of Alphabet’s Verily as a preferred vendor, but it still hurts. Most unfortunate:

Check out this graphic Biobot added. It's dead-on. They're much better at normalizing data than the competition. My own analyses bear this out. This is why I have continued to use their data for year-over-year comparisons, and consequently forecasting.

CDC went with a… pic.twitter.com/fxTDPiPSi5

— Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA (@michael_hoerger) May 18, 2024

Biobot data was the only source of consistent data for the entire pandemic. Now we don’t have a baseline anymore (at least that’s what I’ll be looking for the in two alternatives below). Their chart was also very simple to use and easy to understand, unlike Verily’s abomination. Good work, CDC. The baseline:

Reminder that our baseline for "low" continues to rise. We have never returned to the "low" of 2020/2021.

Cases are already increasing, and our new "low" is on its way to 200,000 cases/day. pic.twitter.com/ULtmvJPHZt

— Covid Caution KP.2 / KP.3 Variant (@CovidCaution) May 18, 2024

Alternative visualizations (1):

Check out this graphic Biobot added. It's dead-on. They're much better at normalizing data than the competition. My own analyses bear this out. This is why I have continued to use their data for year-over-year comparisons, and consequently forecasting.

CDC went with a… pic.twitter.com/fxTDPiPSi5

— Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA (@michael_hoerger) May 18, 2024

Alternative visualizations (2):

My visualizations will not go offline, unlike Biobot. I will continue to update them regularly, post weekly update threads, and build out with as much as data as are available. https://t.co/YbZkdqzLva pic.twitter.com/FDD4cfC7Nx

— Sara Anne Willette ♿️🌈👩🏻‍💻𓅆 (@amethystarlight) May 19, 2024

Here is CDC’s miserably inadequate visualization:

Note that “All Results” begin in 2022, conveniently erasing Biden’s Omicron spike. Again, we have no baseline.

And CDC’s miserably inadequate map:

“High” levels compared to what? Again, we have no baseline, so it’s impossible to say. Also, Biobot had data down to the wasterwater plant (county) level, which was actually useful to people. If CDC does, this ain’t it.

* * *

Lambert here: Patient readers, I’m going to have to rethink this beautifully formatted table. Biobot data is gone, CDC variant data functions, ER visits are dead, New York hospitalization seems to be dead since 5/1 [No, it’s alive!], when CDC stopped mandatory hospital data collection, Walgreens functions, Cleveland Clinic functions, CDC traveler’s data functions, New York Times death data has stopped. (Note that the two metrics the hospital-centric CDC cared about, hospitalization and deaths, have both gone down). Ideally I would replace hospitalization and death data, but I’m not sure how. I might also expand the wastewater section to include (yech) Verily data, H5N1 if I can get it. Suggestions and sources welcome.

TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

–>

Cases
❌ National[1] Biobot May 13:	❌ Regional[2] Biobot May 13:
Variants[3] CDC May 11	Emergency Room Visits[4] ❌ CDC March 23
Hospitalization
★ New York[5] New York State, data May 17:	National [6] CDC May 11:
Positivity
★ National[7] Walgreens May 20:	★ Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic May 16:
Travelers Data
Positivity[9] CDC April 22:	Variants[10] CDC April 22:
Deaths[11]
Weekly deaths New York Times March 16:	Percent of deaths due to Covid-19 New York Times March 16:

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (Biobot) Another one bites the dust.

[2] (Biobot) Ditto.

[3] (CDC Variants) FWIW, given that the model completely missed KP.2.

[4] (ER) CDC seems to have killed this off, since the link is broken, I think in favor of this thing. I will try to confirm. UPDATE Yes, leave it to CDC to kill a page, and then announce it was archived a day later. And heaven forfend CDC should explain where to go to get equivalent data, if any. I liked the ER data, because it seemed really hard to game.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Flat. The data is now updating again. I suppose to a tame epidemiologist it looks like “endemicity,” but to me it looks like another tranche of lethality.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC) Still down. “Maps, charts, and data provided by CDC, updates weekly for the previous MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Department Visits, Test Positivity) and weekly the following Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”.

[7] (Walgreens) Slight uptick.

[8] (Cleveland) Leveling out.

[9] (Travelers: Posivitity) Up and down.

[10] (Travelers: Variants) KP.2 enters the chat, as does B.1.1.529 (with backward revision).

[11] Looks like the Times isn’t reporting death data any more? Maybe I need to go back to The Economist….

Stats Watch

There are no official statistics of interest today.

* * *

The Bezzle: “Craig Wright Lied About Creating Bitcoin And Faked Evidence, Judge Rules” [Wired]. “A judge in the UK High Court has ruled that computer scientist Craig Wright lied ‘extensively and repeatedly,’ and committed forgery ‘on a grand scale’ in aid of a years-long quest to prove he is Satoshi Nakamoto, the creator of Bitcoin. In a written judgment published on May 20, Justice James Mellor ruled that Wright forged reams of documents in service of his charade. ‘It is clear that Dr Wright engaged in the deliberate production of false documents to support false claims and use the Courts as a vehicle for fraud,’ he wrote. ‘I am entirely satisfied that Dr Wright lied to the Court extensively and repeatedly. All his lies and forged documents were in support of his biggest lie: his claim to be Satoshi Nakamoto.’ ‘Dr Wright presents himself as an extremely clever person,’ Mellor added. ‘However, in my judgment, he is not nearly as clever as he thinks he is.’ The judgment—the culmination of a six-week trial held earlier in the year—marks the end of a civil lawsuit launched by the Crypto Open Patent Alliance (COPA), a nonprofit consortium of crypto companies, against Wright. The organization asked the court to declare that Wright is not the creator of Bitcoin, to prevent him from carrying forward multiple separate lawsuits against Bitcoin developers and other parties founded on the claim.” •

* * *

Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 64 Greed (previous close: 64 Greed) [CNN]. One week ago: 49 (Neutral). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated May 20 at 1:49:52 PM ET

Rapture Index: Closes unchanged [Rapture Ready]. Record High, October 10, 2016: 189. Current: 188. (Remember that bringing on the Rapture is good.) • Bird flu not a concern, apparently. And I hate even to go here, but the “Tribulation Temple” category is a mere 3. If Tribulation Temple = Third Temple = whatever temple it is that the Red Heifer loons want to build, then the Rapture Index made the right call, amazingly enough. It said: “Don’t worry about the Red Heifers.”

The Gallery

Not, I think, the typical Rousseau:

View of Malakoff Hauts de Seine https://t.co/NTpmYTgVNQ pic.twitter.com/1VoUGvDzmH

— Henri Rousseau (@artrousseau) May 12, 2024

Guillotine Watch

“$400 for one pineapple: The rise of luxury fruit” [CNN]. “The Rubyglow pineapple –— bred for its distinctive red exterior and its sweetness — costs $395.99 at Melissa’s Produce, a California-based seller of specialty fruit and veggies. It took Del Monte, a wholesaler which sells a variety of produce but specializes in pineapple, a decade and a half to develop the red-hued fruit. A limited crop was first available in China early this year. Recently, Del Monte decided to see how the item would fare in the United States, and Melissa’s starting selling it at the astronomical price… The pitch has had limited success. Melissa’s started with 50 pineapples, according to Robert Schueller, director of public relations at Melissa’s Produce. So far, it has sold about half that number over the course of a month, including to restaurants in Las Vegas and Southern California, which he said are using the fruit in displays…. ‘I think charcuterie boards this Christmas, Thanksgiving — you’re going to see this Rubyglow as a centerpiece, especially in an affluent house,’ he said. In other words, people may not spend for the taste of the pineapple, but just to show off that they have it.”

News of the Wired

“The myth of Medieval Small Beer” [Ian Visits]. “There is a story repeated so often that it has become a truth — that medieval folk drank weak beer to avoid the perils of drinking water — but it’s a myth. A myth that I also for many years repeated unthinkingly, until I got thinking, about how accurate it is. The evidence is in fact, often in plain sight, but overlooked. The folk in olden times who could afford it would pay for good clean water. For example, the construction of the Great Conduit in 1237 carried spring water from Tyburn to the city, and on a larger scale, so did the New River, opened in 1613. Within the city, a waterwheel was once attached to London Bridge to pump Thames water around the city. So medieval folk not only drank water, but put in place the substantial infrastructure to supply it to the populace. There were also ‘masters of the conduits’ who looked after the pipes, and more importantly ensured those who used the water paid for what they took. The rich could have their own pipes, while most people bought buckets of water supplied by water carriers (cobs). Why do we think of people drinking small beer? Calories and hydration pure and simple. … If you are living at a time when most labour was manual and intensive, you needed to consume a lot of calories. A typical male working the fields in the summer months was burning an average of 3,000 calories per day. You also needed to replenish lost fluids from sweating. As it happens, small beer is really quite effective at delivering both calories and fluids. Small beer was also cheap, often being made from the third runnings of the mash from brewing ales, with the strong and common ales first, then the small beer last…. People didn’t drink small beer to stay healthy — they drank small beer to give them energy. As far as medieval man was concerned, there wasn’t anything wrong with plain water — small beer was, put simply, the Red Bull of its time.”

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Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From TH:

TH writes: “I love the symmetry of this huge agave and how it reminds me of an octopus. It is another image taken in the desert section of the Sherman Library and Gardens.”

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