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2:00PM Water Cooler 6/13/2024

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By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Bird Song of the Day

Sedge Warbler, Uitkerkse polder, Vlaamse Gewest, Belgium. “Elevation (m): 4. Habitat: reed in meadows . Confidence in ID: 100%. ID determined by: seen.”

* * *

In Case You Might Miss…

(1) Electoral college moves toward Trump (slightly).

(2) Hillary Clinton, still servicing AIPAC.

(3) CDC publishes tweet with upside down mask.

(4) Mushrooms and citizen science.

* * *

Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

* * *

2024

Less than a half a year to go!

RCP Poll Averages, May 24:

No discernible effect from Trump’s conviction yet (though Democrats have only just begun to exploit it). Swing States (more here) still Brownian-motioning around. Of course, it goes without saying that these are all state polls, therefore bad, and most of the results are within the margin of error. If will be interesting to see whether the verdict in Judge Merchan’s court affects the polling, and if so, how.

* * *

“Electoral College Rating Changes: Half-Dozen Moves Toward Republicans in What Remains a Toss-up Race” [Sabato’s Crystal Ball]. “We are making six Electoral College rating changes this week, all in favor of Republicans. However, we don’t really see a clear favorite in a presidential race with many confounding factors. We consider Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin to all be must-wins for the Democrats. While one can hypothetically come up with paths to 270 electoral votes for Democrats without them, we don’t find those paths to be compelling.” And: “[W]e also recognize the clear big-picture trends. Trump has been polling better than he typically polled in both 2016 and 2020, and that has been the case for many months. Biden’s approval rating is in a dangerous zone—the high 30s—and he has been in that weak place consistently since November, according to the FiveThirtyEight average. Biden is not going to be at net-positive approval by Election Day—fortunately for him, he does not need to be, but one would probably expect to see some level of improvement if he is going to win reelection. The danger for Biden is that voters may just be done with him: There is some nostalgia in polls for the pre-2020, pre-Covid, and pre-inflation period that coincided with Trump’s presidency. That doesn’t necessarily mean the public is clamoring for Trump, who remains unpopular; it’s just that they may prefer him to Biden, or may just be thinking more about what they don’t like about Biden (the incumbent) than Trump (the challenger). One thing that Biden has going for him is that Trump does not seem to have trimmed the sails on his own rhetoric at all—Trump continues to laud the Jan. 6, 2021 rioters who tried to disrupt the 2020 electoral vote count as persecuted patriots, for instance, a position we just can’t imagine helps him with the middle of the electorate trying to decide between two flawed major party candidates.” • Here is a table of the changes:

And here is a map of the electoral college:

“Why 270 is the most dangerous number” [Nate Silver, Silver Bulletin]. I like it when Silver uses the numbers as part of a narrative, like grizzled veterans Charles Cook or Larry Sabato, instead of pretending he’s a data scientists. This, on Biden’s “narrow path” to victory (not unlike Trump’s path in 2016) is very good. He starts with a (for Democrats) nightmare scenario: “It’s 7 p.m. on Monday, November 11. Six long nights have passed since Election Day. The last ballots have finally been fully counted in Pennsylvania.1 And Joe Biden has just been declared the winner of the Keystone State by 3,000 votes out of nearly 7 million cast — and therefore the winner of the Electoral College….. Pennsylvania and the other two original Blue Wall states — Michigan and Wisconsin — just barely held for Biden, producing this electoral map: a win for Biden by the slimmest possible margin, 270-268…. It will take only one faithless elector to deny Biden his 270-vote majority, sending the nation into a constitutional crisis.” • Of course, Trump didn’t get his one member of a hung jury, either. (Again, you can bet the “election integrity” goons are gaming this out, just as in 2020.)

* * *

Trump (R) (Smith/Cannon): “Searching for the Truth About the Raid at Mar-a-Lago” [RealClearPolitics]. “In another oddity, the FBI disclosed that a prosecutor for the U.S. attorney’s office in southern Florida was present during the search; prosecutors generally do not participate in raids, as they instead handle charging decisions after evidence is collected as a result of a search. Further, the prosecutor would lose immunity if the search was declared unlawful. That appears to be a possibility. The warrant allowed agents to search Trump’s office as well as ‘all storage rooms, and all other rooms or areas within the premises used or available to be used by FPOTUS and his staff and in which boxes or documents could be stored.’ Trump’s lawyers argue that FBI agents exceeded the scope of the warrant by searching the private rooms of Melania and Barron Trump. But Trump’s lawyers argue that FBI agents exceeded the scope of the warrant by searching the private suite of former first lady Melania Trump and the couple’s son, Barron, who was 16 at the time. An FBI photo log demonstrates agents entered and took photographs of items inside both bedrooms.” • Sounds to me like the FBI has the right of it, but the raid also sounds like a mess.

* * *

Trump (R): “Trump’s Project 2025 plot would take ‘wrecking ball’ to US institutions, key Democrat warns” [Guardian]. • You say “take [a] ‘wrecking ball’ to US institutions” like that’s a bad thing. (Of course, I’m being flippant. And I do have to take a serious look at Project 2025. It’s too big to take an exhaustive view, but it might be useful to see what Heritage has to say about the spooks.

* * *

BIden (D): “The White House isn’t ruling out a potential commutation for Hunter Biden after his conviction” [Associated Press]. ” The White House is not ruling out a potential commutation for Hunter Biden, the president’s son who was convicted on three federal gun crimes and is set to be sentenced by a judge in the coming months. ‘As we all know, the sentencing hasn’t even been scheduled yet,’ White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters Wednesday on Air Force One as President Joe Biden traveled to the Group of Seven summit in Italy. She said she has not spoken to the president about the issue since the verdict was delivered Tuesday. Biden definitively ruled out pardoning his son during an ABC News interview last week. ‘He was very clear, very upfront, obviously very definitive,’ Jean-Pierre said of the president’s remarks about a potential pardon. But on a commutation, ‘I just don’t have anything beyond that.'” • Oh.

* * *

“Why Senate Democrats Are Outperforming Biden in Key States” [New York Times]. “‘I’ll show up in deep-red counties, and they’ll be like, ‘I can’t remember the last time we’ve seen a sitting U.S. senator here, especially not a Democrat,” said Ms. Baldwin, an hour into her unassuming work of handing out plastic silverware at an annual dairy breakfast, and five months before Wisconsin voters will decide whether to give her a third term. ‘I think that begins to break through.’ Wisconsin is one of seven states that will determine the presidency this November, but it will also help determine which party controls the Senate. President Biden and former President Donald J. Trump are running neck-and-neck in the state, which Mr. Trump narrowly won in 2016 and Mr. Biden took back in 2020. Ms. Baldwin, by contrast, is running well ahead of the president and her presumed Republican opponent, the wealthy banker Eric Hovde. Polls released early last month by The New York Times, The Philadelphia Inquirer and Siena College found Ms. Baldwin holding a lead of 49 percent to 40 percent over Mr. Hovde. In late May, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report put the spread even wider, 12 percentage points. That down-ballot Democratic strength is not isolated to Wisconsin. Senate Democratic candidates also hold leads in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania. A Marist Poll released Tuesday said Mr. Trump led Mr. Biden in Ohio by seven percentage points, but Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, leads his challenger, Bernie Moreno, by five percentage points, a 12-point swing.”

* * *

“Ten rules for understanding the 2024 elections” [Walter Shapiro, Roll Call]. “We have reached that point in the 2024 election cycle when it is too late to be early and too early to be late. With summer approaching and the first debate ever between an incumbent president and a convicted felon looming, this seems like the ideal moment to propose 10 rules for following the campaigns.” Here are two: “3) Be cautious about electoral models, since it is impossible to replicate the idiosyncratic factors that are shaping the race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump.” And: “8) Remember there has never been a June presidential debate. Be skeptical about any glib after-action assessments of who won and what it ultimately means. In Denver in early October 2012, Obama had probably the worst debate of any candidate in history, including Richard Nixon in 1960. A month later, Obama easily won reelection.” • Worth a read. Horse races are fun, but not necessarily, along the way, informative.

Democrats en Déshabillé

“Hillary Clinton stuns Democrats by endorsing George Latimer for Jamaal Bowman’s congressional seat” [Daily Mail]. • Democrats are easy to stun. Latimer:

Clinton:

Bowman:

Normally, I’m not quite this mechanistic, but this seems a lot like Ferguson’s “industrial model.” Except artisanal.

Realignment and Legitimacy

Textualism, except for sovereign citizens:

Fascinating how these talismanic phrases root themselves in people’s minds (and doubtless mutate, like Nigerian 419 letters do). Reminds me of mainstream macro.

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

* * *

Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

* * *

Transmission: H5N1

“Bird flu poses unanswered questions in leap to dairy cows” [Cedar Rapid Gazette (RK)]. “The U.S. Department of Agriculture has sent a “strike team” to Iowa to assist it with testing after the highly contagious bird flu usually associated with poultry flocks now has been discovered in three dairy cow herds in the state…. The Iowa Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship will begin testing dairy farms within 20 kilometers — or over 12 miles [not, apparently, six feet] — of any poultry farm where the virus is detected, said department spokesperson Don McDowell…. Federal and state officials are studying the infected herds across the country to determine how the cows may have contracted the virus. In a statement, Mc-Dowell said wild birds are frequent carriers of the virus. ‘We need to learn more about how the virus is introduced to new flocks/herds and how it is spreading,’ he said. ‘We are always looking for epidemiological clues and ties and that’s why we are making our requests of USDA to assist with research.'” Remember that one of the things public health told us was that Covid was a surprise to them, unlike avian flu, for which they had been preparing for years. And now here it is, and we don’t know a thing. More: “The disease also appears to be spreading between cows, rather than just from birds to cows, making interstate transportation a likely culprit for the spread, said Iowa State University Dairy Extension Veterinarian Phillip Jardon.” Here we are taking notice of cattle transmission, how many months in? [pounds head on desk]. And finally: “The Iowa Department of Agriculture said last week it is considering additional requirements for livestock exhibitions at the Iowa State Fair, which begins Aug. 8.” • Well, there’s your worse case scenario right there: State fairs as superspreading events, except for H5N1. And see the link immediately below

Airborne Transmission: H5N1

“Modelling the Wind-Borne Spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus between Farms” [PLOS One]. From 2012, still [family-blogging] germane. From the Abstract: “A quantitative understanding of the spread of contaminated farm dust between locations is a prerequisite for obtaining much-needed insight into one of the possible mechanisms of disease spread between farms. Here, we develop a model to calculate the quantity of contaminated farm-dust particles deposited at various locations downwind of a source farm and apply the model to assess the possible contribution of the wind-borne route to the transmission of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza virus (HPAI) during the 2003 epidemic in the Netherlands. The model is obtained from a Gaussian Plume Model by incorporating the dust deposition process, pathogen decay, and a model for the infection process on exposed farms. Using poultry- and avian influenza-specific parameter values we calculate the distance-dependent probability of between-farm transmission by this route. A comparison between the transmission risk pattern predicted by the model and the pattern observed during the 2003 epidemic reveals that the wind-borne route alone is insufficient to explain the observations although it could contribute substantially to the spread over short distance ranges, for example, explaining 24% of the transmission over distances up to 25 km.” • Other factors being: Movement of cattle, movement of workers, possibly animal transmission. I can’t prove this, but the 12 mile testing radius above kinda correlates to the 25 km = 15.5 miles in this study. Quite possibly somebody in Iowa is reading the literature, unlike CDC and FDA.

Celebrity Watch

“The COVID-19 infection you caught at a Taylor Swift concert is not a gift from ‘Mother'” [Business Insider]. • Say no to death cults!

Elite Maleficence

Think material before thinking psychological:

(“[T]he identity of revenues and sources of revenue” –Capital, Volume III, Chapter 52, “classes.”) CDC seems like a horrid place to work. So no wonder Mandy had CDC’s propaganda department emit this:

* * *

How many things can you find that are wrong with this picture:

Here’s a list:

NOTES

Sorry for the repetitions of the original tweet (but then again, perhaps it can’t be retweeted enough).

[1]

[2]

[3]

And:

[4]

Not to mention the racial angle…

[5]

This image must have gone through eighteen different layers of management before being posted on The Twitter. How on earth did they all sign off on an image with an upside down mask. Ignorance? Malevolence? A perverse sense of fun? Brain damage? And a final meme:

* * *

Lambert here: Patient readers, I finally gave up the unequal struggle and went with CDC’s wastewater maps; they will at least give us some at-a-glance sense of how cases are changing in time and space.

TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

Wastewater
This week[1] CDC June 3: Last Week[2] CDC June 3 (until next week):
Variants[3] CDC June 8 Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC June 1
Hospitalization
★ New York[5] New York State, data June 7: National [6] CDC May 18:

Positivity
National[7] Walgreens June 10: Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic June 1:
Travelers Data
Positivity[9] CDC May 20: Variants[10] CDC May 20:

Deaths
Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11]CDC June 1: Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12]CDC June 1:

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, with hot spots annotated.

[2] (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, not annotated. Next week I will move the map at [1] to [2], and update [1].

[3] (CDC Variants) FWIW, given that last week KP.2 was all over everything like kudzu, and now it’s KP.3. If the “Nowcast” can’t even forecast two weeks out, why are we doing it at all?

[4] (ER) This is the best I can do for now. At least data for the entire pandemic is presented.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) A slight decrease followed by a return to a slight increase. (The New York city area has form; in 2020, as the home of two international airports (JFK and EWR) it was an important entry point for the virus into the country (and from thence up the Hudson River valley, as the rich sought to escape, and then around the country through air travel.)

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). This is the best I can do for now. Note the assumption that Covid is seasonal is built into the presentation. At least data for the entire pandemic is presented.

[7] (Walgreens) 4.3%; big jump. (Because there is data in “current view” tab, I think white states here have experienced “no change,” as opposed to have no data.)

[8] (Cleveland) Going up.

[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Up. Those sh*theads at CDC have changed the chart so that it doesn’t even run back to 1/21/23, as it used to, but now starts 1/1/24. There’s also no way to adjust the time rasnge. CDC really doesn’t want you to be able to take a historical view of the pandemic, or compare one surge to another. In an any case, that’s why the shape of the curve has changed.

[10] (Travelers: Variants) Same deal. Those sh*theads:

[11] Deaths low, but positivity up.

[12] Deaths low, ED up.

Stats Watch

Employment Situation: “United States Initial Jobless Claims” [Trading Economics]. “The number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the US jumped by 13,000 to 242,000 on the week ending June 8th, well above market expectations of 225,000, to record the highest reading since August 2023. In the meantime, outstanding claims rose more than expected to 1,820,000 in the earlier week, the highest in nearly five months. The results were further evidence of a softening US labor market, strengthening the case for the Federal Reserve to deliver multiple rate cuts this year should inflation progress in converging to its target.” • Except they’re not going to. Or so they say.

Inflation: “United States Producer Price Inflation MoM” [Trading Economics]. “Factory gate prices in the US went down 0.2% mom in May 2024, compared with market expectations of a 0.1% increase and after a 0.5% rise in April.”

* * *

Tech:

* * *

Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 43 Fear (previous close: 46 Neutral) [CNN]. One week ago: 44 (Neutral). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Jun 13 at 1:35:27 PM ET.

The Gallery

Seems appropriate, somehow:

News of the Wired

“The Mushroom Hunters Can’t Stop Finding Mysterious Fungi” [New York Times]. “Once collectors receive a match for their sequence, they can enter the information on iNaturalist, a website where hobbyists can share observations of the natural world. Meanwhile, organizations like the Ohio Mushroom DNA Lab and Mycota Lab, founded by Stephen Russell, a biochemist at the University of Michigan, enter the sequences into scientific databases accessible to the research community. This way, the information generated by dispersed networks of foragers can be funneled directly to scientists and conservation organizations.” • Citizen science! Too bad we can’t do wastewater testing that way….

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Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From timotheus:

Timontheus writes: “Isham Park @ Seaman Avenue, northern Manhattan.”

* * *

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About Lambert Strether

Readers, I have had a correspondent characterize my views as realistic cynical. Let me briefly explain them. I believe in universal programs that provide concrete material benefits, especially to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime example, but tuition-free college and a Post Office Bank also fall under this heading. So do a Jobs Guarantee and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can deliver on such programs, because the two are different flavors of neoliberalism (“Because markets”). I don’t much care about the “ism” that delivers the benefits, although whichever one does have to put common humanity first, as opposed to markets. Could be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don’t much care, as long as the benefits are delivered. To me, the key issue — and this is why Medicare for All is always first with me — is the tens of thousands of excess “deaths from despair,” as described by the Case-Deaton study, and other recent studies. That enormous body count makes Medicare for All, at the very least, a moral and strategic imperative. And that level of suffering and organic damage makes the concerns of identity politics — even the worthy fight to help the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton’s wars created — bright shiny objects by comparison. Hence my frustration with the news flow — currently in my view the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the other by out-of-power liberals and their allies in the State and in the press — a news flow that constantly forces me to focus on matters that I regard as of secondary importance to the excess deaths. What kind of political economy is it that halts or even reverses the increases in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I am also very hopeful that the continuing destruction of both party establishments will open the space for voices supporting programs similar to those I have listed; let’s call such voices “the left.” Volatility creates opportunity, especially if the Democrat establishment, which puts markets first and opposes all such programs, isn’t allowed to get back into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I love the tactical level, and secretly love even the horse race, since I’ve been blogging about it daily for fourteen years, but everything I write has this perspective at the back of it.

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63 comments

  1. doug

    I am going with brain damage. Or Fake somehow. If real, all associated with it need to resign and go home

    Reply ↓
      1. steppenwolf fetchit

        I feel this at least deserves consideration. There must be a lot of non-corrupt non-deluded genuine scientists at CDC, FDA, etc. living each minute in fear of active persecution and removal by the layers of political and economic commissars injected into the upper layers of CDC, FDA, etc.

        I would rather see institutions like this decontaminated than abolished . . . if decontamination and decommissarization is even possible any more. The legitimate scientists know who all the abscessed teeth are and would name them for extraction if they felt they could trust the people asking them who the abscessed teeth are and who should be extracted and discarded from leadership and enforcership.

        Reply ↓
        1. Jason Boxman

          I spoke at length with a nurse from NIH on the Dating App a week ago; Even sent her a journal article with someone from NIH saying infection with SARS2 is harmful, suggested that she can just send him an email and confirm, if she doesn’t believe me. She was adamant that the Pandemic is over, though, nothing to see. Sent along the BLS disabled working age population graph as well.

          The only nurse so far I’ve talked to that takes it seriously works at a pharmaceutical company as a quality analyst, said she still N95s on planes and has tried to avoid it, but doesn’t want to be a total “hermit”. At least she’s sensible, but to a person, everyone I’ve talked to in health care (~5 nurses now) think it’s over. Two claim to have worked in ERs during 2020 and boy do I have no idea what I’m talking about.

          I dunno. It’s all very distressing.

          The BLS disability graph doesn’t lie, nor does the data out of Canada and the UK.

          Reply ↓
          1. The Rev Kev

            Hey man, if you met her on a dating app you should hook up with her. If she believes that the Pandemic is over, she’ll believe anything. Tell her that you are an astronaut or something. :)

            Reply ↓
      1. fjallstrom

        That was what I thought at first, but I think the image matches the stock photo too well, so more likely Photoshop.

        Reply ↓
  2. flora

    Er, um, is Hills running again? If, you know, B should step down and be replaced at the convention. Inquiring minds. / ;)

    Reply ↓
    1. Lambert Strether Post author

      > is Hills running again

      She’s just crazy enpugh to believe that she can. I don’t believe it will ever happen, even if Biden slips a cog. Too many people know it would be end of the Party.

      Reply ↓
      1. ambrit

        Yes, “people” would know a Hilz candidacy would be the end of the Party. However, I wonder about “donors” knowing such. (A Venn diagram of the classes of “People” and “Donors” would have two circles barely touching, but no overlap.) Said moneybags play both sides of the street, and sometimes the Street itself, so, it’s all good to them no matter what goes down.
        “Move fast and break things” evidently includes Society to these creatures.

        Reply ↓
        1. The Rev Kev

          Excellent point. If the donors figured that choosing old Joe and Kamala four years ago was such a smart move, then they may convince themselves that picking Hills would be a great choice right now.

          Reply ↓
      2. Carla

        The Party hasn’t ended? That really hadn’t occurred to me. Bill Clinton killed the party, and Obama buried the coffin, far as I could tell.

        Reply ↓
        1. Amfortas the Hippie

          aye!
          same with me…altho, given few alternatives, i often campaigned locally for demparty creatures…however, i almost never actually voted for them, being a third party guy from the womb.
          since obama’s first 100 or so days, no more!
          im more afraid of biden…or Herself…than i am of orange man bad…let alone Putin or Xi.

          Reply ↓
        2. spud

          basically clinton cut the support for the party in half.

          bill clinton created the bomb, lit the fuse, and exploded the bomb that would engulf the world in a economic fire storm in 2008.

          https://prospect.org/health/fabulous-failure-clinton-s-1990s-origins-times/

          the failure of Clintonism: what we face today is 100% traceable to bill clintons disastrous policies: “Bill Clinton ratified reaganism long before Newt Gingrich led the GOP to victory in the 1994 congressional rout or Clinton sought to triangulate with his opponents in 1995 and after.”

          “Trump’s rhetoric can never be taken at face value, but during the 2016 campaign he had an uncanny ability to capture the angst and id of those citizens and workers, many once solid Democratic partisans, now victimized and marginalized by the seemingly uncontrollable financial and economic transformations of the last few decades.

          With some justification, he called the Clinton era’s North American Free Trade Agreement the “worst trade deal” in history, and has opposed China’s entrance into the World Trade Organization. Indeed, Trump was the first actual presidential candidate of one of the two major parties—Ross Perot ran on a third-party ticket—to assert that trade policy was both cause and symbol of blue-collar malaise. “

          Reply ↓
    2. flora

      Nah, Hills can’t be trying to unseat Harold Stassen’s legacy. Right? (Actually, Stassen was alright, imo, though he never won and became something of a joke as the perpetual candidate, which was too bad.)

      Reply ↓
      1. Neutrino

        Forbes had a column decades ago, now with updated headline.

        The new StASSen is a Democrat. The name’s now McCarthy Hillary Clinton.

        Reply ↓
    3. griffen

      Once more with feeling! She will visit even those deplorable citizens in the states she had crossed off her list of must visit to campaign during 2015 to 2016…

      Americans love a comeback but this ain’t it, really. Unless she can hock small kitchen appliances aka George Foreman.

      Reply ↓
  3. lyman alpha blob

    For the mushroom hunters, here’s another amateur science resource – https://mushroomobserver.org/

    I haven’t used the site myself, although I intend to sometime. I don’t think it deals with DNA sequencing but you can send in your pictures and use it to ID the mysterious fungi you run across.

    Reply ↓
  4. Lambert Strether Post author

    I added orts and scraps (including the notes for the CDC mask debacle; there’s a lot of dunking going on).

    Also, do check out the airborne spread of H5N1 over 15 miles via contaminated farm dust.

    Reply ↓
    1. steppenwolf fetchit

      . . . contaminated farm dust . . .

      I remember years ago reading about a mass e. coli alert/recall targetting prepared salad greens from a major organic farm operation in Arizona. This was used by the anti-organic community to smear organic produce as being ” e coli-genic”. Only later was it discovered that the source of the e. coli in this batch was from contaminated feedlot dust from a CAFO many miles away in Arizona.

      So contaminated farm dust can be a powerful vector for many things.

      Reply ↓
      1. Steve H.

        Thank you, add to the list of greenhouse air protection:

        : acid rain soil leaching
        : complicated wildfire residues
        : radioactive fallout
        : aluminium smelting
        : bird flu poo
        : non-organic pollen

        Reply ↓
      1. Amfortas the Hippie

        i first learned about strange feeding habits at big cattle(tm) operations when i obtained manure from a local “scientific” feedlot…and nothing would grow where i dumped it for 15 years(i dumped it there for staging, but then noticed it looked odd…and felt greasy)
        turns out, those folks were feeding cattle out(ie:fattening them up) with stale bread by the truckload, and things like fritos that had been removed from shelves after they expired.
        the whole lot where they stored this stuff…under tight plastic tarps…is a wasteland, 30 years later…nothing grows in that lot, at all.
        i assume theyve stopped that practice, since i havent seen the big white tarp-tubes in many years.
        and corn is relatively cheap, these days.

        but feeding cows the floor sweepings of an industrial chicken house?
        or how about the ground up offal…including the spine…that gave us Mad Cow?

        we eat beef only on occasion…and even then, its from ranchers we know.
        we do eat store bought pork…namely, bacon…but i intend to remedy that asap.
        (just need the pig-keeping infrastructure—ie fort knox, because they’re notorious at escaping…hence, the wild hog issue,lol)
        the meat we eat the most of is lamb/sheep/mutton, goat…and various domestic fowl…produced right here…and mostly on grass.
        as it frelling should be.

        Reply ↓
          1. JBird4049

            I want to thank Big Food for pre-embalming us, so we don’t have to pay for it when we die. It will save my relatives some money.

            Reply ↓
        2. flora

          feeding the cattle with stale bread and things like expired Doritos. whoa! What’ist might that information have for human consumption of the same stale bread and expired Doritos (or even not expired) things?

          Reply ↓
    1. Samuel Conner

      Perhaps it can vocalize with the air flowing in either direction. I sound wheezy when I try to speak while inhaling; maybe birds, or some birds, are better at that.

      Reply ↓
  6. lyman alpha blob

    Wondering is this is anything?

    “Yes, Trump was convicted under state law in New York. But there’s still a direct path to appeal to the Supreme Court NOW: other states have standing *to sue New York* for preventing a presidential candidate from being able to campaign to the residents of their state. That would immediately land the case in the Supreme Court well before November. State AGs need to wake up.”

    I don’t think there is any Constitutional right or requirement for a presidential candidate to campaign in every state. But if we’re going to use lawfare 24/7 now, perhaps there is something to it for the Donald’s defense team.

    And if there is something to it, maybe Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania can sue HER for not showing up in 2016!

    Reply ↓
      1. ChrisFromGA

        Food baiting.

        Plus, the pier can be seen mainly as PR. “Look, we care!”

        Well-intended incompetence looks better than being an accomplice to Genocide.

        Reply ↓
    2. ambrit

      This entire situation has the feel of an inter-war crisis. Manageable, but with the ever-present danger of stupidity and pride leading us all to flaming, luminous death.
      Herein, a musical interlude:
      Hear, the original Dietrich version: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6CKJUEIiYH4&ab_channel=MarleneDietrich-Topic

      The updated version:

      We often stop and wonder
      Why we appeal to under – dogs
      How many times we blunder
      Into death and out again
      They offer us devotion
      We like it, we confess
      When we pretend emotion
      There’s no need to second guess

      Falling apart again
      Never wanted to
      What are we to do?
      We can’t help it
      Death’s always been our game
      Play it how you may
      We were made that way
      We can’t help it.

      Refugees cluster to us
      Like moths around a flame
      And if their wings burn
      We know, we’re not to blame
      Falling apart again
      Never wanted to
      What are we to do?
      We can’t help it

      Falling apart again
      Never wanted to
      What are we to do?
      We can’t help it.
      Death’s always been our game
      Play it how you may
      We were made that way
      We can’t help it
      Refugees cluster to us
      Like moths around a flame
      And if their wings burn
      We know, we’re not to blame
      Falling apart again
      Never wanted to
      What are we to do?
      We can’t help it

      From “Falling In Love Again” sung by Marlene Dietrich

      Reply ↓
    4. hk

      Well, I guess they can no longer send in death squads disguised as aid trucks from the pier now that they used up that trick already.

      Reply ↓
    1. Carolinian

      I did try it and didn’t get much of anything. How about Wikipedia?

      the project aims to recruit tens of thousands of conservatives to the capital, Washington D.C., to replace existing federal civil servants—whom Republicans characterize as part of the “deep state”—and to further the objectives of the next Republican president.[4] It adopts a maximalist version of the unitary executive theory, a disputed interpretation of Article II of the Constitution of the United States,[5][6] which asserts that the president has absolute power over the executive branch upon inauguration.[…]

      Project 2025 envisions widespread changes across the government, particularly economic and social policies and the role of the federal government and its agencies. The plan proposes slashing funding for the Department of Justice (DOJ), dismantling the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and Department of Homeland Security (DHS), sharply reducing environmental and climate change regulations to favor fossil fuel production, eliminating the Department of Commerce, and ending the independence of federal agencies such as the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) and Federal Trade Commission (FTC).[8][9] The blueprint seeks to institute tax cuts,[10] though its writers disagree on the wisdom of protectionism.[11] Project 2025 recommends abolishing the Department of Education, whose programs would be either transferred to other agencies, or terminated.[12][13] Funding for climate research would be cut while the National Institutes of Health (NIH) would be reformed along conservative principles.[14][15] The Project urges government to explicitly reject abortion as health care[16][17] and eliminate the Affordable Care Act’s coverage of emergency contraception.[18] The Project seeks to infuse the government with elements of Christianity.[19][20] It proposes criminalizing pornography,[21] removing legal protections against discrimination based on sexual orientation and gender identity,[21][22] and terminating diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) programs,[4][22] as well as affirmative action.[23]

      You can read the rest of this Heritage plan here

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_2025

      But it’s basically the old drown the government in the bathtub scenario mixed with the religious politics of the 1980s–a kind of make Reaganism great again. Of course none of these things happened back in Ronnie time (the government via the military got larger) and even assuming that the libertine and dubious Christian Trump is onboard it would indeed take a Republican coup to make it happen.

      In short the hard core Repub fever brain is as demented as that of Maddow who just said on MSNBC that Trump was going to put her in a concentration camp. It wasn’t reported whether she then burst into tears.

      Ho hum.

      Reply ↓
      1. Amfortas the Hippie

        on the bright side….lol…all that nonsense, if implemented, would hasten the Empire’s decline and fall…
        in that regard, sure…why the hell not?
        i’m in texas…after all…where one must actively hunt for pron, in nooks and crannies….and where all such insanity is tried out before nationalisation.
        hell…i know public school teachers…who truly believe that public school teachers are agents of international communism.
        and people who install solar panels who think that windmills are some evil commie plot to kill the birds.
        the 50 year Mindf&ck has been very, very successful.

        and as far as the Pitcavage thing on trolling the sovereign citizens…yeah,lol…i know lots of those people, too.
        i’m even in agreement with them on many things…like the sacrosanctity of Rights…and who holds sovereignty under the Constitutional Order…or should(whispers..”ummm…the People…”)
        they tolerate me locally because i’m outspoken about 1st amendment issues(really, all the Bill of Rights), and tolerate their weird obsessions…altho i often challenge them on many things.
        none of them can believe i’m a new dealer, qua socialist as my ideal to strive for(while being a Jungerian Anarch in the mean time,lol)

        Reply ↓
        1. Carolinian

          I get that Texas is a state where the truck stops are likely to be playing a televangelist on the TV and, when I used to listen to shortwave, the religious stations all seemed to be in the Lone Star.

          So if y’all want to secede it we’ll get over it. A little longer drive on the way to AZ though.

          All kidding aside here’s suggesting that Heritage was merely trolling for the attention and that Trump–who as Lambert has said adjusts his message for his audience–is playing along.

          And Texas has some great stuff. Our uncle once took us to Big Bend.

          Reply ↓
          1. Amfortas the Hippie

            i took mom to her tit doctor in fredericksburg…and ran down to kerrville(20 or so miles) to the golf cart place to get a solenoid.
            daughter and son in law of folks who own it…whom ive known for years…both heavily tatooed(likely thousands of dollars each)…him long haired and bearded, she, lookin hot in a biker chick way…and that ol time religion playing loudly on the radio,lol.
            thumpers have changed, yet not changed….
            weird/

            Reply ↓
            1. The Rev Kev

              ‘The more things change, the more they stay the same’ – Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Karr

              And that quote was from over 175 years ago.

              Reply ↓
  10. Lunker Walleye

    Magritte, “The Triumphant March”. What you’re looking at is not what you’re looking at? Disconcerting acid colors on dark brown, navy background. A clownish head with a carrot nose smoking a pipe (ceci n’est pas une pipe) is attached to a feline leg, a mustachioed head is in flames(?) on a muscular leg in a brown-buttoned shoe, a cucumber-beaked character is on the right with a pear body and shiny round object below. What are we to make of this?

    Reply ↓
    1. CarlH

      I took it as implying the subjects were asses, as that is where their heads are positioned. I’m not much of an interpreter of art though.

      Reply ↓
  11. Socal Rhino

    Tuttle Capital, the asset manager that brought you the Inverse Cramer fund and the fund that shorts Cathy Wood’s Ark flagship fund, has filed with the SEC to create an ETF that mirrors the holdings of members of congress.

    News you can use (not investment advice).

    Reply ↓
        1. Amfortas the Hippie

          how much of that is from medicare fraud?
          id put him where they put the Nazgul, after the first war with Sauron.

          Reply ↓
  12. Tom Stone

    The CDC’s photoshopped upside down mask is wonderfully clarifying, it exemplifies the degree of competence and professionalism we have all come to expect from them.
    Bless their hearts.

    Reply ↓
  13. Wukchumni

    Watching the Stanley Cup Finals and Russian players on the Florida Panthers have dominated the action with Florida on the verge of leading the series 3-0, but you really never hear the ‘R’ word by the announcers in the midst of the cold war on skates.

    Reply ↓

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