2:00PM Water Cooler 6/14/2024

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Bird Song of the Day

Sedge Warbler, Frodsham Marsh, Cheshire, England, United Kingdom. “Song.” I’ll say!

* * *

In Case You Might Miss…

(1) Many new Covid charts today, including wastewater. Stay safe out there!

(2) Kamala. Get used to it.

(3) Sleep and memory.

* * *

Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

* * *

Biden Administration

“World losers gather at G7 summit” [Axios]. Nice headline! “Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is the odd one out among the leaders at this year’s G7 — not because of her hard-right politics, but because her approval rating is above 40%…. Biden’s 37% approval rating positively sparkles next to Canadian PM Justin Trudeau (30%), German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (25%), U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak (25%), French President Emmanuel Macron (21%) and Japanese PM Fumio Kishida (13%), per Morning Consult’s tracker. Sunak looks almost certain to lose his job in elections on July 4. In the European Parliament elections, Scholz’s party finished a distant third behind the far-right, while Macron’s performed so badly that he called a shock snap election.”

2024

Less than a half a year to go!

RCP Poll Averages, May 24:

Still waiting for some discernible effect from Trump’s conviction (aside from, I suppose, his national numbers rising). Swing States (more here) still Brownian-motioning around. Of course, it goes without saying that these are all state polls, therefore bad, and most of the results are within the margin of error. If will be interesting to see whether the verdict in Judge Merchan’s court affects the polling, and if so, how.

* * *

Trump (R): “AP-NORC poll: About half of US adults approve of Trump’s conviction, but views of him remain stable” [Associated Press]. “About half of U.S. adults approve of Donald Trump’s recent felony conviction, according to a poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. The survey shows some potential vulnerabilities, along with some signs of resilience in his support, as Trump tries to become the first American with a felony record to win the presidency. Less than five months before Election Day, the poll paints a picture of a nation with firmly entrenched opinions of the divisive former Republican president. Overall views of Trump and Democratic President Joe Biden remain unchanged since before the guilty verdict in Trump’s New York hush money trial. But the findings also suggest that Trump’s conviction is one more weakness among disaffected Republicans. While most people in the United States have heard about the conviction, political independents are less likely to be paying attention and more likely to have a neutral opinion of Trump’s conviction, indicating that there may still be room for the campaigns to sway them.

Trump (R): “Two weeks since Trump’s New York guilty verdict: What have we learned?” [Al Jazeera]. • “What do we learn, Palmer?”

* * *

Trump (R): “Donald Trump calls Milwaukee ‘a horrible city’ weeks before RNC comes to town” [Journal-Sentinel]. • I’d have to see the transcript; here’s the reporting. That said, Trump won’t get a lot of votes in Milwaukee. The suburbs, on the other hand….

* * *

Biden (D): “A tale of two families: Trumps hide and Bidens unite in face of criminal trials” [Independent]. “President Biden’s youngest son was surrounded by family members each day of his trial until the very end…. The symbolic show of loyalty has drawn particular scrutiny for the fact that it was preceded by another headline-grabbing criminal trial: the hush money case brought against Donald Trump. For much of the former president’s six-week trial in New York, he attended the Manhattan criminal courthouse without family, surrounded only by lawyers and a rotating cast of political allies.” • then again, maybe that’s because the Trump family isn’t a tangled mass of interest-free, undocumented personal loans? As for the famous Biden empathy:

“How Hunter Biden’s next trial could hurt Joe Biden’s re-election chances” [FOX]. ” Hunter Biden’s conviction for illegal firearm possession signals no greater corruption, aside from the Justice Department’s inexplicable delay in bringing the charges and the earlier, flawed plea bargain that would have given him only a slap on the wrist. Instead, the firearm case distracts from the real scandal: whether Hunter took money from foreign companies and even governments to peddle influence through his father, now the sitting president of the United States. That will form the basis of a second federal trial of Hunter Biden in Los Angeles in September for tax evasion, just in time to influence the November elections.” • And speaking of, er, influencing elections, here’s a fine summary showing how the Democrats, the spooks, and the press conspired to suppress the story of Hunter Biden’s laptop:

Make you wonder if there were any business records involved in the state of New York.

* * *

Biden (D): “Biden’s senior momentum: Why he’s courting older voters” [Axios]. “President Biden appears to be making serious inroads with America’s oldest voters — and could become the first Democrat to win the demographic in over two decades…. The Biden campaign is attempting to seal the support of a group that consistently votes at higher rates than any other demographic. Former President Trump, as Axios reported yesterday, appears to be making stunning gains of his own among young voters. The polls could still be wrong. But unlike young voters, older Americans still (sometimes) answer their phones, making them easier to reliably poll. Older Americans — perhaps driven by old-school respect for institutions and distaste for Trump’s unorthodox style — are flocking to Biden, according to a series of recent polls…. The most recent New York Times/Siena poll shows that Biden has a 9-point lead in a head-to-head matchup against Trump among likely voters aged 65 or older.” • Importantly, people make their party choice young, and tend to stick with them, so Trump’s candidacy will yield benefits to the Republican Party for decades to come (under various optimistic assumptions).

Biden (D): “Are Black voters deserting Biden?” [Brookings Institution]. “Despite current worries among Democrats about parts of their coalition’s less than enthusiastic support for President Biden’s re-election, history suggests those concerns may not be warranted. A recent in-depth Pew survey shows that about one in five African American men say they plan on voting for Donald Trump. Among Democrats, this has led to fears that Black voters in key cities in key states like Detroit, Philadelphia, and Milwaukee will cost Biden those critical states. So how dangerous is this to Biden’s prospects? First, much of the polling that purports to show Black voters moving toward Trump is based on small sample sizes. The samples from subsegments in those polls are often so small that they have a very large margin of error. Second, they aren’t as recent as survey data, from Pew, that analyze the Black vote in greater depth. During this month’s discussion of young Black voters hosted by Brookings as part of their Race, Prosperity and Inclusion Initiative, Howard University political science professor Marcus Board, Jr. said that the normal Republican Black vote in presidential contests ranges from eight percent to 15%. Surveys back up his numbers.”

Biden (D): “James Carville sounds off on Dems hemorrhaging support of Latino male voters: ‘We’re gonna f—in lose ’em!'” [FOX]. “Democratic political strategist James Carville shared his concern about Democrats losing minority voters, namely Latino Americans, ahead of the 2024 election cycle, pointing fingers at ‘preachy females’ in the party. Carville’s commentary came during an appearance on Donny Deutsch’s ‘On Brand’ podcast, shedding light on the Democrats’ ‘huge male problem’ among ‘communities of color.’ ‘We have a huge male problem all across the board, but particularly, I hate this term, but I’ll use it, ‘communities of color,’ as if all people that are not white are the same. It’s stupid,” Carville said.” • I’m assuming Carville doesn’t mean “a problem with huge males” here…

* * *

“Trump, Biden Prep for Debate Where Any Misstep Threatens Hopes” [Bloomberg]. “The candidates are already at work, conferring with close advisers before the first face-to-face showdown of 2024 on June 27 in Atlanta. That forum offers a high-stakes opportunity to break through the deadlock, but with clear perils on a stage where one-liners or zingers may prove ineffective but where any gaffe or misstep threatens to be politically fatal…. Biden will also be joined by trusted political aides, including Anita Dunn, Mike Donilon, Cedric Richmond, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, Steve Ricchetti and deputy chief of staff Bruce Reed….. It’s unclear if the team will hold mock debates, as they did in 2020 when Biden’s personal lawyer, Bob Bauer, played the role of Trump and relentlessly went after the nominee to prepare him for an expected onslaught of personal attacks… Trump’s prep is similarly being run by a tiny circle of aides, including Susie Wiles, Chris LaCivita and Jason Miller as well as policy aides and speechwriters Vince Haley and Russ Worthington. Kellyanne Conway, a former top White House official, is also helping Trump. The former president has always disdained formal preparation and mock debates, allies say, preferring to informally workshop answers and retorts with aides.” And: “Miller said Trump’s debate prep comes naturally from his many media appearances and rallies. ‘President Trump takes on numerous tough interviews every single week and delivers lengthy rally speeches while standing, demonstrating elite stamina,” [Jason] Miller said in a statement. “He does not need to be programmed by staff.”” • Ouch! And not untrue.

* * *

“If Joe Biden Isn’t the Democrats’ 2024 Candidate, Kamala Harris Will Be” [Ed Kilgore, New York Magazine]. “Obviously, anyone willing to overlook Biden’s clear determination to stick it out this year can imagine Harris “stepping aside” — or being shoved aside — as well. But there’s really no evidence that the Democrats who would make this decision (the Biden-Harris loyalists who serve as convention delegates or on the Democratic National Committee) feel this way at all. And now there’s evidence that rank-and-file Democrats have the veep’s back. While a new Politico–Morning Consult poll with data about Harris shows that she shares her boss’s general election vulnerability, Democrats remain bullish on her. Seventy-four percent think she’d make a good president. By a 59 percent to 31 percent margin, they think she could win a 2024 general election. She’s stronger than Biden among the Black and Latino voters that have been stressing Democrats in recent years. And in terms of early 2028 preferences among Democrats, she’s far ahead of the competition (Harris is at 41 percent; Pete Buttigieg is at 15 percent; Newsom is at 14 percent; Whitmer is at 5 percent). Harris is already the principal voice of her administration and her party on the GOP threat to abortion rights, which will very likely become a more prominent issue as November approaches. She’s not going anywhere…. The idea that Democrats are ready to abandon her or Biden simply has no basis in verifiable fact. If, for some unforeseeable reason, Biden is incapacitated or decides to pack it in before November, Kamala Harris, for better or for worse, will be the Democratic candidate, period, full stop. Barring any clear evidence to the contrary, it’s time to forget about the fantasy tickets.” • Please fire me into the sun. Here is the only possible scenario I can think of where electing Harris President would make any sense. From C. Northcote Parkinson’s Parkinson’s Law. The situation: The leader is incompetent and therefore, at best, second rate. They are also jealous, so they will be careful not to hire anyone who is better than third rate. The organization dies from the top down. So:

“It is as if the whole institution [in this case the Democrat Party] had been sprayed with a DDT solution guaranteed to eliminate all ability found in its way. For a period of years this practice achieves the desired result. Eventually, however, individuals develop an immunity. They conceal their ability under a mask of imbecile good humor. The result is that the operatives assigned to the task of ability-elimination fail (through stupidity) to recognize ability when they see it. An individual of merit penetrates the outer defenses and begins to make his way toward the top. He wanders on, babbling about golf and giggling feebly, losing documents and forgetting names, and looking just like everyone else. Only when he has reached high rank [in this case, President] does [s]he suddenly throw off the mask and appear like the demon king among a crowd of pantomime fairies. With shrill screams of dismay the high executives find ability right there in the midst of them. It is too late by then to do anything about it. The damage has been done, the disease is in retreat, and full recovery is possible over the next ten years.”

Nothing in Harris’s career prepares me for this scenario.

* * *

“America Could See Surge in People Not Voting” [Newsweek]. “The 2024 presidential election could see an uptick in Americans not voting from the 2020 election, according to results from a recent survey. Political observers view the 2024 election as one of the most important races in modern history, as President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, the presumptive Democratic and Republican presidential nominees, are set to face off in a rematch of 2020. The two have sparred over issues ranging from the economy, abortion rights, the Israel-Hamas war and democracy as election season continues to heat up. However, more Americans are considering sitting out of the election than they were at this point in 2020, according to a new CBS News/YouGov poll. The poll, conducted among 1,615 registered voters between June 5 to 7, found that only 80 percent of respondents said they will definitely vote in November. This is down from the same time in 2020, when a CBS News/YouGov poll found that 83 percent of Americans were definitely going to vote. That poll was conducted among 2,200 adults from April 28 to May 1, 2020. A July 21 to 24, 2020 poll, among 2,008 adults, found that 89 percent of Americans would definitely vote.” • How odd.

Republican Funhouse

“The cloudy future of the Federalist Society” [Politico]. “Late last week, the Federalist Society’s leader Eugene Meyer announced his plans to step down as president and CEO, kicking off a high-profile national search for the group’s next boss. His legacy is far-reaching: Meyer transformed the organization from a small ‘debating society’ for right-leaning law students into a legal and political powerhouse that has been involved in almost every high-profile conservative judicial appointment of recent decades, including those to the Supreme Court…. Meyer has not announced a formal date for his retirement or named a successor, though the organization is expected to begin considering candidates to replace him later this summer. With Meyer’s successor likely to be named just months before the 2024 election, the decision is expected to signal how closely the society’s leaders plan to align themselves with the MAGA movement — or whether they will lean into the organization’s traditional posture as a big-tent for the legal right. Meyer, who helped found the society in the 1980s and has served as its leader for over 40 years, has long served as a sort of elder statesman within the conservative movement, acting as a bridge between its founding generation and its current, more Trump-ified leadership. His father, Frank Meyer, was a longtime senior editor at William F. Buckley’s National Review who became best known as the philosophical proprietor of ‘fusionism’ — the idea, central to the creation of the modern conservative movement in the post-World War II era, that traditionalist social conservatism and free-libertarianism could serve as mutually reinforcing programs. The younger Meyer made his father’s fusionist creed a cornerstone of the conservative legal movement from its creation, positioning the Federalist Society as an open forum where conservative and libertarian legal thinkers could come together to forge a shared philosophy and legal strategy.” • So if I tend to think, I have thought unfairly, that libertarianism vs. conservatism is a distinction without a difference, that’s because “fusionism” succeeded?

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

* * *

Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

* * *

Maskstravaganza

Thanks, liberal Democrats:

And just to inject some rationality–

“Face masks are less effective than sunglasses in masking face identity” [Nature]. “Here, we investigated how face identification performance was affected by two types of face disguise: sunglasses and face masks. Observers studied a series of faces; then judged whether a series of test faces, comprising studied and novel faces, had been studied before or not. Face stimuli were presented either without coverings (full faces), wearing sunglasses covering the upper region (eyes, eyebrows), or wearing surgical masks covering the lower region (nose, mouth, chin). We found that sunglasses led to larger reductions in sensitivity (d’) to face identity than face masks did… These findings implied that the upper region of the face, including the eye-region features, is more diagnostic for holistic face-identity processing than the lower face region.” • The eyes, in words, which N95s do not conceal.

Celebrity Watch

“Swifties Set Off Another ‘Swift Quake’ During Taylor Swift’s Shows in Edinburgh” [Billboard]. “The British Geological Survey reported this week that seismometers around Edinburgh were triggered after mega-hyped fans at Taylor Swift‘s three Scottish Gas Murrayfield Stadium shows (June 7-9) last weekend registered earthquake readings up to four miles from the venue.” • Nothing on Swift’s superspreading event in Madrid. Naturally.

“Taylor Swift seemingly wipes snot on outfit during chilly Eras tour performance” [Metro UK]. “In a clip captured by a fan, the 34-year-old American singer wipes her nose while striding forward on stage during an Edinburgh performance. As her hand returns to her side, there appears to be some kind of fluid hanging off her finger. Ever the professional, she then light touches her green skirt with the same hand, potentially in a bid to get rid of whatever it was.” • One hopes not Covid (and Scotland does seem to have been unseasonably cold in June) so perhaps the press has finally moved into pulling the wings off flies mode.

* * *

Lambert here: There are many new charts today. Positivity is up whereever you look. And I’m concerned with the contrast between last week’s wastewater chart and this week’s: Note the addition of New York (an airline hub, needless to say, as San Francisco, also hub). I would say that if you plan to travel over the Fourth of July weekend, take some precautions. Start planning (and stocking up) now.

TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

Wastewater
This week[1] CDC June 10: Last Week[2] CDC June 3 (until next week):

Variants[3] CDC June 8 Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC June 1
Hospitalization
New York[5] New York State, data June 13: National [6] CDC May 25:

Positivity
National[7] Walgreens June 10: Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic June 8:
Travelers Data
Positivity[9] CDC May 27: Variants[10] CDC May 27:
Deaths
Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11]CDC June 1: Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12]CDC June 1:

LEGEND

1) for charts new today; all others are not updated.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, with hot spots annotated. The numbers in the right hand column are identical. The dots on the map are not.

[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) FWIW, given that last week KP.2 was all over everything like kudzu, and now it’s KP.3. If the “Nowcast” can’t even forecast two weeks out, why are we doing it at all?

[4] (ER) This is the best I can do for now. At least data for the entire pandemic is presented.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) A slight decrease followed by a return to a slight, steady increase. (The New York city area has form; in 2020, as the home of two international airports (JFK and EWR) it was an important entry point for the virus into the country (and from thence up the Hudson River valley, as the rich sought to escape, and then around the country through air travel.)

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). This is the best I can do for now. Note the assumption that Covid is seasonal is built into the presentation. At least data for the entire pandemic is presented.

[7] (Walgreens) 4.3%; big jump. (Because there is data in “current view” tab, I think white states here have experienced “no change,” as opposed to have no data.)

[8] (Cleveland) Going up.

[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Up. Those sh*theads at CDC have changed the chart so that it doesn’t even run back to 1/21/23, as it used to, but now starts 1/1/24. There’s also no way to adjust the time rasnge. CDC really doesn’t want you to be able to take a historical view of the pandemic, or compare one surge to another. In an any case, that’s why the shape of the curve has changed.

[10] (Travelers: Variants) Same deal. Those sh*theads. I’m leaving this here for another week because I loathe them so much:

[11] Deaths low, but positivity up.

[12] Deaths low, ED up.

Stats Watch

There are no official statistics of interest today.

* * *

Manufacturing: “F.A.A. Investigating How Counterfeit Titanium Got Into Boeing and Airbus Jets” [New York Times]. “Some recently manufactured Boeing and Airbus jets have components made from titanium that was sold using fake documentation verifying the material’s authenticity, according to a supplier for the plane makers, raising concerns about the structural integrity of those airliners.

The falsified documents are being investigated by Spirit AeroSystems, which supplies fuselages for Boeing and wings for Airbus, as well as the Federal Aviation Administration. The investigation comes after a parts supplier found small holes in the material from corrosion. In a statement, the F.A.A. said it was investigating the scope of the problem and trying to determine the short- and long-term safety implications to planes that were made using the parts. It is unclear how many planes have parts made with the questionable material…. Spirit is trying to determine where the titanium came from, whether it meets proper standards despite its phony documentation, and whether the parts made from the material are structurally sound enough to hold up through the projected life spans of the jets, company officials said. Spirit said it was trying to determine the most efficient way to remove and replace the affected parts if that ended up being necessary.” • An industry problem: 2023, 1989, 1985.

Manufacturing: “Why America Is Running Low on Zyn Nicotine Pouches” [Wall Street Journal]. “America’s favorite nicotine pouch has become so popular that its factory can’t churn out the product fast enough. Zyn’s U.S. sales growth has slowed and its market share has slipped in recent weeks as a nationwide shortage of the product has led to out-of-stocks in some stores. Many products on the brand’s website this week were listed as back-ordered. On social media, users who can’t find the pouches have jokingly labeled the shortage the “Zyndemic” or “The Great Zynpression,” and have posted photos of signs in stores saying they are out of Zyn. Zyn has been available in the U.S. since 2014 but its sales have skyrocketed over the past year and a half, propelled by a wave of unofficial “Zynfluencers” promoting the brand on social media.” • This is the purest of pure speculation, but since I am ever in search of proxies for the data sources that the public health establishment has systematically destroyed:

Missed this at the time. Readers?

Tech: “Apple to ‘Pay’ OpenAI for ChatGPT Through Distribution, Not Cash” [Bloomberg]. “When Apple Inc. Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook and his top deputies this week unveiled a landmark arrangement with OpenAI to integrate ChatGPT into the iPhone, iPad and Mac, they were mum on the financial terms…. Apple isn’t paying OpenAI as part of the partnership, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the deal terms are private. Instead, Apple believes pushing OpenAI’s brand and technology to hundreds of millions of its devices is of equal or greater value than monetary payments, these people said.” • Hmm. So one feudal lord rents a bunch of peasants to another feudal lord?

* * *

Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 38 Fear (previous close: 43 Fear) [CNN]. One week ago: 45 (Neutral). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Jun 14 at 1:51:36 PM ET.

The Gallery

Lovely:

But the trees, top center. Anybody else think the workshop painted the trees, and then Botticellia painted in the man taking off his shoes? Looks a little too composed….

News of the Wired

“Sleep deprivation disrupts memory: here’s why” [Nature]. “A crucial brain signal linked to long-term memory falters in rats when they are deprived of sleep — which might help to explain why poor sleep disrupts memory formation1. Even a night of normal slumber after a poor night’s sleep isn’t enough to fix the brain signal. These results, published today in Nature, suggest that there is a ‘critical window for memory processing,’ says Loren Frank, a neuroscientist at the University of California, San Francisco, who was not involved with the study. ‘Once you’ve lost it, you’ve lost it.'” • On the bright side, if you want to forget, now we know how!

* * *

Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From Teton Time:

Teton Time writes: “Our lettuce supply this year.”

* * *

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About Lambert Strether

Readers, I have had a correspondent characterize my views as realistic cynical. Let me briefly explain them. I believe in universal programs that provide concrete material benefits, especially to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime example, but tuition-free college and a Post Office Bank also fall under this heading. So do a Jobs Guarantee and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can deliver on such programs, because the two are different flavors of neoliberalism (“Because markets”). I don’t much care about the “ism” that delivers the benefits, although whichever one does have to put common humanity first, as opposed to markets. Could be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don’t much care, as long as the benefits are delivered. To me, the key issue — and this is why Medicare for All is always first with me — is the tens of thousands of excess “deaths from despair,” as described by the Case-Deaton study, and other recent studies. That enormous body count makes Medicare for All, at the very least, a moral and strategic imperative. And that level of suffering and organic damage makes the concerns of identity politics — even the worthy fight to help the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton’s wars created — bright shiny objects by comparison. Hence my frustration with the news flow — currently in my view the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the other by out-of-power liberals and their allies in the State and in the press — a news flow that constantly forces me to focus on matters that I regard as of secondary importance to the excess deaths. What kind of political economy is it that halts or even reverses the increases in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I am also very hopeful that the continuing destruction of both party establishments will open the space for voices supporting programs similar to those I have listed; let’s call such voices “the left.” Volatility creates opportunity, especially if the Democrat establishment, which puts markets first and opposes all such programs, isn’t allowed to get back into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I love the tactical level, and secretly love even the horse race, since I’ve been blogging about it daily for fourteen years, but everything I write has this perspective at the back of it.

94 comments

  1. lyman alpha blob

    RE: Surge in People Not Voting

    After voting in every election for decades, I’ve skipped it the last couple years myself.

    Felt pretty good actually, considering the choices on offer.

    1. JustAnotherVolunteer

      I’ve been under voting the top of my ballot since the Clinton years. Writing in Frank Zappa never gets old.

      1. lyman alpha blob

        You too! Zappa was my first ever presidential vote back in 1988. I’d just been to one of his concerts at what turned out to be his final tour, and he was doing the whole “get out the vote” thing at the time, registering voters during intermission.

      2. Pat

        My fantasy write ins have been reserved for down ballot races where there is no third party candidate who isn’t also from one of the two big parties. Third Party for the last three Presidential elections.
        I really do hope that former voters still vote – write in, third party or my least favorite under vote, It is far easier to pretend that most voters want something if you can only base it on percentage of those voting. It is a little harder if your winner has less than 40% of the votes cast. Or in a big fantasy if everyone eligible came out and voted without voting for the Republican or Democratic candidates for President, it would be more like a percentage in the high 20s.

        1. Amfortas the Hippie

          my first vote for preznit was for Ron Paul.
          it was all about war and the war on some drugs, for me.
          i had also already experience the heavy hand of gooberment, in the form of rabid east texas exurban coppers, who had been told(i found out much later) that i was a white slaver(!) and heroin trafficker(!).
          so anybody yelling about curtailing gooberment had my attention.
          ive voted 3rd party ever since…except for obama’s first run(hope springs, until it rusts).
          and i was always religious about being the first one at the polls…enough so that i am still sort of famous for it around here among the courthouse dwellers.
          but i think the last time i cast a ballot was the two democrat primaries where bernie ran.
          nothing since.
          i run into the county judge, etc, at the dump, or wherever…and they say…”whereyabeen?”
          lol.
          i tell them i dont believe in “Our Democracy(tm)” any more.
          that that belief has been driven out of me, and that i am resigned to being unrepresented, henceforth.
          i’m sorta well regarded among that set….and ive heard that these utterances…there, among the trash and cast off 2×4’s and partial piglets….have engendered discussion over drinks after work by those folks.
          but so far, not enough interest to come on out here and ask.(its not like they dont all know where i live,lol)

          1. Tom Pfotzer

            What would they ask you, Amfortas?

            “Say, boy-ah, what the hell is a Goobermint?”

            :)

            1. Amfortas the Hippie

              by this point, they all know how i am,lol.
              im a radical, and a dangerous mind.
              theres one county commisioner who seems to have a thing for me,lol…he doubles as a long term dr pepper employee/exec(a big employer out here, with long, corrupt history that i wont get into today)…so i see him every time i go to a store…and he pidgeonholes me and wants to talk about what i think about this or that local issue.
              he really, really wants me to run for my own commish seat, which will again be contested(nonpartisan)…and im like, “whats it pay?”….some idiocy like $20 a month,lol…and im like “hell, no, Fred!…y’all come on out and jaw with me at the Wilderness Bar if you really want my thoughts on thangs…”
              bc county commissioners in Texas have no power…totally circumscribed by state law….”home rule”, be damned.
              i even gave him…and others in the little store where i get my cigs and kegs….an ad hoc, extemporaneous history lesson on one Cincinnatus,lol
              “ima goin back to my plow…”

          2. Ben Joseph

            Ron Paul was my first 3rd party vote, for same general reasons. But I will vote for Jill Stein again, because registering our discontent isn’t that much effort, wasted or not…

          3. Lefty Godot

            I voted for Ron in the Republican primary one time, and for Libertarian candidate Bob Barr in an election (think it was 2004). And Bernie in the Democratic primary in 2016. Skipped the primaries and elections during the Obama interregnum, and also the 2016 election. To my eternal shame, I voted for Biden last time, despite loathing the guy. Will not repeat that mistake again. It will be either Stein (most likely) or back to non-voting. I think Caitlin Johnstone is exactly right that voting is the “toy steering wheel” that makes you think you have some control over where the country’s heading, when that control really resides with a very few people and is inaccessible to the likes of us.

      3. Jeff H

        I’m an old man who stayed away from electoral politics until 2002. I thought Zappa was an interesting composer and guitar player. He also had some great perspective on social issues. The thought of him promoting social engagement through voting just seems too superficial. Seems to lend some credence to his being an asset used to subvert any serious leftist activity.

        I was glad to cast my first primary vote for Pat Paulsen in 2024. He might be dead but he beats the other major party candidates. Can’t wait to do the same in the general.

        1. Bugs

          Frank Zappa was a reactionary jerk. Look at his dismissal of the punk movement. The guy was way up in his ego for way too long and then decided he hated George H. W. Bush for some reason. Please. Anyone but him.

    2. griffen

      Didn’t vote in 2012,mostly due to varied reasons to greatly dislike the Mittens campaign & the BS of Romney telling us that ” corporations are people, my friend…”. Fine lot of people I say, beholden to the principles of law when declaring bankruptcy. Oh wait…that ain’t how it works.

      2024 choices hardly warm my heart or cause a Chris Matthews “tingle in my limbs”…let’s vote in the giant Asteroid as opposed to a giant hemorrhoid…

    3. matt

      this is the first year i get to vote in a federal election so im super excited!!! that being said, i dont really feel like my vote in the federal election means much. im voting for jill stein but it feels incredibly meaningless- the winner will be of the same useless liberal ilk no matter the party. and i think a lot of people feel the same way; its the loss of trust in democratic institutions. local elections are where things matter.

      1. Martin Oline

        Good for you. This might be my last year to vote in a Federal election and I’m a gonna vote for Jill too. I gave $5 to Kennedy early on and bought a couple of T-shirts, gave one to a sister-in-law who will no longer talk to me. I don’t blame her, I hung up on Kennedy when he called me.
        Some things never change. I felt relieved when his father got shot in L.A. He had just given a rousing speech about supporting Israel forever. I was too young to vote that year but thought maybe Gene had a chance. I have since read he wasn’t really interested in running for president, like so many ‘alternative’ candidates, they are all red herrings put up there to distract the voters.

  2. Pat

    I wish I thought there was much consideration behind Hochul’s no masks on the subway stance beyond what can we do to look hard on crime with no consequences…
    Yeah, her administration is that idiotic and without a financial upside with grift you can always find some pandering posturing in these kinds of announcements from her office.

    I can honestly believe that very few people among her team have actually thought about Covid for the last year, these are PMC who really do benefit for ignoring things they should care about.

  3. Wukchumni

    You know this bogus titanium news on top of every other saga regarding airplanes while I await that first, last boarding call, isn’t making me any less anxious of the task at hand, survive 5 hours surrounded by strangers, meet family, friends and strangers for 5 hours of matrimony & more and hopefully not infect them with something from the first 5 hour crowd or vice versa. Get back on a plane for another 5 hours surrounded by strangers.

    1. Carolinian

      It used to be you could get flight life insurance–might want to look into it.

      Also for inflight viewing No Highway in the Sky from the ’50s. Engineer Jimmy Stewart has to figure out why an airliner’s tail fell off. Based on the story of a real British plane, he succeeds while befriending Marlene Dietrich.

      1. The Rev Kev

        If you can find a copy, “Fate is the Hunter” by Ernest K. Gann is worth reading about the early days of airline travel.

      2. Wukchumni

        I’ve had that Twilight Zone episode on replay in my mind, where Shatner sees a proto-Bigfoot on the wing, monkeying with the engine, and I’ve decided to go with Mutual of Tijuana-thanks for the insurance tip~

          1. Wukchumni

            Outer Limits was frightening to me when I was a kid, no mamby pamby extraterrestrials on that show, why they’d rip off your face if you so much as looked at ’em askance.

                1. The Rev Kev

                  Heh, heh, heh. Living the dream! If you could go back in time to 1974 and write a sci-fi book detailed the real world of 2024, people would laugh in your face about how ridiculous it was, especially the part where Trump the real estate huckster would become President one day.

                2. Wukchumni

                  There is nothing wrong with your country. Do not attempt to adjust the picture by protesting at colleges. We are controlling transmission. If we wish to make it louder, we will bring up the Hasbara volume. If we wish to make it softer, we will tune it to a whisper by calling anything detractors do as anti-Semitic. We will control the horizontal. We will control the vertical. We can roll the image, make it flutter. We can change the focus to a soft blur, or sharpen it to crystal clarity.

        1. Carolinian

          You’re welcome

          Jimmy Stewart was in other 1950s airplane movies including Spirit of St. Louis (a fine Billy Wilder film) and Strategic Air Command (his frau the less than wonderful June Allyson). And some may know that Stewart flew B-24 bombers during WW2 and beat the 50/50 odds of survival. Back then flight was considered so wonderful people ran much greater personal risk by doing it.

          Now we squeeze into the cattle car.

          I don’t object to flying but perversely enjoy my cross country auto trips.

          1. Wukchumni

            I can adjust the seat any way i’d like, can stop and get the same quality food served in first class, and they’ll even trust me with cutlery~

            You can’t see anything really when you’re 6 miles high as far as specifics, as you do when on a road trip.

            Dusty the Adventure Dog and his human accoutrement from Tucson were here for a month and my buddy escapes the big heat in May and won’t return until late October, exploring the west on anything but an interstate. He wants to do Oregon & Washington in some detail, driving around mostly as he’s handicapped and can only walk 1/4-1/2 a mile. The duo is at the Glacier Lodge campground in the eastern Sierra, think Steinbeck’s Travels With Charley.

            He had Guillain-Barré syndrome when he was 7 and lived in an iron lung for a year and a half, which might explain his wanderlust later in life.

            .

      3. XXYY

        This was taken from a novel called No Highway written by Neville Shute. A shut-in materials engineer thinks he has found the cause of a recent crash, but no one will listen to him. Finally, he’s forced to travel from his familiar lab in England to a Newfoundland wilderness to find the wreckage of the latest crash and prove his case.

        A very good fish-out-of-water story with a classic British sensibility.

  4. John

    If as the article says, 2024 is the most important election since the birth of the universe, how is it that we have a 78 year old demagogue on a revenge trip and an 81 year old whose mental acuity is suspect and carefully curated by his wife and his ‘handlers?’ I always vote. I do not always vote for every office especially when none of the candidates can pass my smell test. 2016 was such a year. I reluctantly voted for Biden in 2020. I need not have. I live in New York. I still wish I had not. 2024 is another year in which none of the candidates pass my smell test. The top three support the genocide in Gaza. I care not for whatever raison d’etat they may spew or their deep emotional attachment to Zionism or what ever other b–l s–t reason they may spout as a justification. That position is deeply wrong.

    Had there been no slaughter in Gaza nor a deeply stupid war in Ukraine nor a near suicidal belligerence toward China nor a refusal to accept that the world is changing and accommodation trumps destroying yourself every time, I still would not be casting a vote for president this year. There is no candidate who is up to the task. I shall sit it out and hope whoever emerges manages not to think a nuclear Armageddon is a smashing good idea.

    1. Carla

      @John — I live in Ohio, so my vote doesn’t count either — although in the opposite direction (as if they were opposed — instead we have the uniparty). But whether it counts or not, I haven’t voted for a Democrat for President since 2008. Obama cured me. And I can’t imagine voting for a Republican. So it’s been third party every time. Hope Stein makes it onto the OH ballot this year as RFK is not an option for me. And yes, I do know I’ve marked myself for life in this and other comments on NC.

  5. flora

    re: sleep

    Not poppy, nor mandragora,
    Nor all the drowsy syrups of the world,
    Shall ever medicine thee to that sweet sleep
    Which thou owedst yesterday.

    -Othello

    1. Amfortas the Hippie

      my memory seems just fine,lol.
      and i have always been an insomniac.
      and like i referenced the other day, the last 6 months or so of Tam’s life, i hardly slept at all…just an hour here, 30 minutes there.
      took me a good month of crashing and burning to get back to my normal insomniac regime…arise at 3-4am….nap around noon…back at it, and in bed by 10pm.
      ive also always been a very light sleeper….especially since the Wild Years and being hunted and on the run.
      i wake up at anything,lol.
      and if i dream, i do not remember them…unless its during the midday nap…usually a powernap, where im still conscious on some level…

      1. Tom Pfotzer

        Aright, someday you’re going to have start telling stories about the Wild Years.

        Ya can’t just throw those kind of imagination-bombs around and not expect to attract attention.

        1. Amfortas the Hippie

          helped a girl out of a jam, in the finest tradition of knight errantry…and her dad was a powerful person, and set the dogs upon me…and i went on the lam.
          livedin a van for 5+ years, allover dixie, having crazy adventures.
          took another 5 years trying to come off the road.
          came way out here to disappear.

          thats the 5 cent tour.

          ive been beaten with sticks…thrice…twice by cops.
          buried alive, twice…once by cops….crawling up out of the ground like some insect…
          washed up on a beach, twice…
          lived in a cave, twice,lol…
          robbed henhouses and gardens along the way…
          been a literal folk devil that im told still holds to this day, in those environs.
          and otherwise just bumped into all manner of crazy…as well as all manner of famous people.
          my life accidentally contains material enough for at least 7 films.
          most of it from the period from age 16 to 26.(Wild Years)
          most people dont believe any of it when i get the chance to hold forth.
          but the stories are consistent, and just happen to be true,lol
          its been a hell of a ride.

          1. Tom Pfotzer

            Amfortas, we’re gonna have to meet someday. Not sure how that’s going to happen, maybe it never will …

            But if it does, I want to hear the detail. I’ll take great delight in that.

            And don’t hold back. I want to hear _all_ of it. Esp. the unbelievable parts.

            :)

            1. Amfortas the Hippie

              im smack dab in the middle of texas.
              ask lambert for my number.
              i hereby authorise release of such information,lol.
              i get far too few visitors, these days…especially the like-minded kind.
              bringing strippers is allowed.

              1. Amfortas the Hippie

                and i started in on a book, when i moved my library out here to this funky trailerhouse.
                (because of a snake)…but then i started in on building the house(physical therapy, magical working)…and left off.
                reads breathlessly for the first half…which covers the time until i came here.
                a torrential passagaclica.
                id like to finish the damned infrastructure and then get into a groove where i can work on all that.

              2. Tom Pfotzer

                OK, then.

                I’m gonna make it happen. Not sure when, but it’s now On the List.

                Strippers. It’s been a looooonnnnnggggg time ago I seen strippers. It did happen, tho, but sadly …

                it occurred at a time when I was beset with morality, and do-right-ism, and the chanst passed me by.

                Youth is wasted on the young.

  6. Zar

    Manufacturing: “F.A.A. Investigating How Counterfeit Titanium Got Into Boeing and Airbus Jets”

    I’m confused by this article’s characterization of Turkish Aerospace Industries as a “material supplier.” To my knowledge, they manufacture and sell airplane parts, not materials. Is it common practice in the (aerospace) manufacturing industry to resell purchased materials?

    1. herman_sampson

      The “Materials Lab” I worked in for a turbine engine manufacturer tested completed parts. Of course, not all properties could be tested for small size or small quantities; submitted test results for the source materials were judged and verified by periodic on-site audits. That was the case up to the 1990’s. Afterwards, more reliance was placed on submitted paperwork and an industry auditing organization.

  7. IM

    Re: nicotine and long COVID, it looks like other labs have not found strong affinity between the spike protein and nicotinic acetylcholine receptors.

    1. Amfortas the Hippie

      aye,lol.
      like smokin pot to prevent lung issues.
      regardless of how silly all this sounds, in our post smokenazi era, in my purely anecdotal case, there seems to be at least a little bit of truth to both.
      my doctor of 25 years marvels at how clear my lungs are…and i blame the potsmoking…makes ya cough it up is my theory.
      as for nicotine…those receptors are important…so clogging them up so covid things cant latch on makes sense, to me.
      i smoke cigs…unashamedly…and both my covid bouts(tested negative both time, but it had to be covid) were like a bad sinus infection…and over within a couple of days(with the vitamin, etc cocktail).
      only thing ive noticed since the last time, 2 1/2 years ago, is that my ordinary environmental allergies(pollen, mold, dust) are much worse than before.
      and paying attention to my body, its obvious that its happening in the sinuses….post nasal drip, etc…and then coughing it out(which is, i think, a family trait…mom, her dad, his mom, all had this physiological quirk where we cannot blow our nose, lest we push it all up deeper…so its hock and spit…which is gross, i know…but the sinus specialist we took our youngest to confirmed that this is a thing with some folks…especially those of native american ancestry. i didnt have insurance, tho…lol…so even tho he was more of a scientist than a doctor, and was intrigued by such physiological anomalies, he wouldnt do a free scan of my sinus cavity. sad…wouldve been interesting to know if my hypothesis is true)

    2. Christian Bonanno

      The reason nicotine helps most likely has nothing to do with the Spike Protein.

      Nicotinic acetylcholine receptors are G Protein-Coupled receptors. Nicotinic acetylcholine receptors are muscle receptors, which are found at the skeletal neuromuscular junction where they mediate neuromuscular transmission, and neuronal receptors, which are found throughout the peripheral and central nervous system where they are involved in fast synaptic transmission.

      So, muscle (fatigue) and brain (fog).

      Nicotine activates these receptors providing muscle energy and brain energy.

      But, as I pointed out in a comment this morning, this could point to low cellular GTP, since GTP provides energy to the G Protein-Coupled receptors so they can function.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gvS4INUrflw

      Nicotine will help but I do not see it as a long term solution, and people will need more and more nicotine since, well, it is addictive.

    3. bwilli123

      It would be somewhat ironic for the medical establishment if nicotine was, in some way, found to be protective, before the fact, or ameliorative after.

      From a French study on the 1st case.

      …”Our monocentric study shows that the rate of daily smokers is significantly lower amongst the patients with symptomatic COVID-19 compared to the French population. This was regardless of the patients’ admission status. The SIRs (standardised incidence ratios) of daily smokers in the outpatients and inpatients groups were identical at 0.24 [0.12–0.48] and 0.24 [0.14–0.40], respectively, which is 76% lower than that of the French population (after adjusting for age and gender)…
      Previous studies have also reported a low rate of active smokers amongst patients with COVID-19. In China, this was 1.4–12.6% (1, 3–10) (compared to 27.3% of all adult smokers nationally) whereas, in the USA, this was 1.3% nationally (CDC data) (compared to 14% of all adult smokers nationally). In New York City, this rose to 5.1% instead (11, 12)…”

      https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmed.2021.668995/full

  8. Tom Stone

    I have been assured that Harris is highly qualified to be president.,
    Joe is sharp as a tack and that Trump is a MONSTER!!!
    I don’t know whether this is the Stupidest timeline ( Covid still has work to do) but I do believe that it is the most delusional.
    I will vote for Stein because I refuse to condone Evil, and a vote for any of the three top candidates is an endorsement of the slaughter of tens, if not hundreds of thousands, of innocent Human beings.
    I’ll add that the recent Lawfare has made me much more sympathetic to Trump, to the extent that I would piss on him even if he wasn’t on fire.

    1. Samuel Conner

      I look forward to discovering how significant the passage of time will be in a future Harris administration. /s

      Perhaps some day someone will pen a dystopian historical novel, “One Day in the Utterances of a Vice President.”

    2. JBird4049

      Propaganda is one helluva of a drug isn’t?

      Most are not stupid, but they, whoever they are, have put much effort into making us all foolish and dysfunctional. Effectively, morons for control and profit.

      The greatest achievement of Western Civilization, the creation of weaponized memes or mind viruses to manipulate, mutate, and control society, and since the manufacturers appear to have no off button, we’re doomed to collective imbecility.

      It is rather like AI creating garbage with bits and pieces of our collective minds.

      Have fun with the collapse, kids.

    3. griffen

      I was shocked at reading that article above, regarding our illustrious VP Harris, and learn that the bigots and racists in America wouldn’t support her! No matter, we all know off hand who and what movement he implies,even if this group broadly goes unnamed.

      Deplorables, racists, or folks clinging to guns and religion. How do these dog whistles carry on with a compliant media not pushing back on that specific narrative….kind of a curious thought experiment. I suppose it’s quite alright if it’s just poor little coal miners in coal country who should learn to code,one example of many.

  9. Mark Gisleson

    I love the Parkinson’s Law item, especially Lambert’s example of how that plays out in the party.

    The Democrat party I have encountered in this century is remarkably hostile to outsiders by which I mean Democrats who are not employed by the party or its favored consultants. In 2004 I was undeniably one of the top authorities on Minnesota political blogs and social media. I could not get past the aßhole at the counter to talk to anyone working John Kerry’s Minnesota office. Absolutely no, they already had people for that. Explained I wasn’t looking for a job, just offering to give the the lay of the land and answer their questions. At this I was given a very derisive look and that was the end of the conversation.

    That ticked me off so I held a workshop at my expense attended by a few campaign staff for a Congressman who went on to become Governor. One of those staffers recently contacted me. My workshop opened his eyes to how the internet really worked and that led to a great deal of success for him. Not because I’m super smart but because he is and all he’d lacked was some basic insights into what the internet was like before The Blob reengineered it.

    After “advising” a WI 1CD congressional campaign in 2016, I sent a check and a written offer to drive to the party’s 2018 candidate’s campaign headquarters to be debriefed. Check was cashed but otherwise crickets. I followed up and followed up and literally could not get the names of anyone in charge to talk to. I was being iced out. This one’s a bit more complicated as I leaked my campaign strategy from 2016 (which the party refused to let me enact) in real time to folks who gave it to whoever gave it the candidate’s minders and they copied from it liberally. So maybe that had something to do with their fear of actually meeting me in person because that kind of chickenßit avoidance is a very second-rate thing to do.

    These two examples are the exact opposite of how party politics work. You NEVER turn someone away. Gently getting rid of pests was a well established art form in the old party like when I once had to tell a one-legged homeless veteran he couldn’t hang out at our hq anymore (he was fun to talk to but no work got done by him or the people around him when he came in to volunteer and then later I had to do the same with a very nice little old lady in a wheelchair but I never once kicked a dog or an orphan). Politics ain’t beanbag and no campaign is so super smart they can lock their doors and refuse to engage with their supporters but that is exactly what these folks do. Parkinsons Law is the best explainer I’ve ever seen for this and dovetails with what literally hundreds of resume clients (my day job) told me: corporate America is full of second raters who are terrified of knowledgeable subordinates.

    Today’s Democrat party is loaded with corporate/NGO types. Draw your own conclusions.

      1. Amfortas the Hippie

        yes. please do!
        ive had similar experiences way out here, with the local demparty apparatus(think hillforts)…before i gave up on it entirely.
        it was obvious they didnt want me…and that i couldnt be controlled as they preferred.
        they all just loved my letters to the editor…but the freethinking freewheeling idea tossing that came with that was an anathema to what the party had become.
        last letter to the editor was after the demparty party in a literal hilltop manse, with a giant picture window overlooking the barrio where i then lived(for obamas second abomination/inauguration)….and i lit into them….shamed them in public, as it were…said, if they were for real, they’d join me at the sheriff’s office the next day to get sworn in as deputy voter registrars.
        not a single one showed up,lol.
        the still head of the county demparty now works at the drive through at my 100+ yo bank….and she acts like she doesnt know me…asks for my name every time.(ive known her for 30 or more years, and i’m real hard to forget)
        f&ck the demparty.

      2. Mark Gisleson

        Thank you but purely for reputational purposes I must protest. I did all of these things in an unpaid capacity altho I did take money in 2006 in an effort to keep Amy Klobuchar from getting the DFL US Senate endorsement. We didn’t even make it to the finish line on that one, Amy plays rough ; ) and I say that as someone with very sharp elbows.

        I did use to think I understood hardball but that was before the neolib/cons* kept doubling down like a Bond villain playing baccarat. Our war debt is staggering and one of the really nasty bits going around is that well, even if we lose, the debt issue will blow up Trump so that’s still a win for us.

        It’s their absolute refusal to be held accountable that really burns.

        *imo all of this is happening because Trump flushed the neocons out of the Republican and into the Democrat party and ain’t that been fun

        ** Oh, and a general disclaimer: I have absolutely no clue how much of what I think has been informed by Lambert, Yves and now Conor but NC has been my absolute go-to news website since 2006(?) when I started shamelessly copying the Water Cooler format for my old rant blog (RIP).

        *** For some perspective as to what my opinion’s worth, I’ve been strictly wake’n’bake since 2016 : )

        1. JBird4049

          I believe that the Clinton Crime Family using the DLC or Democratic Leadership Council defenestrated the remaining New Deal Democrats at roughly the same time as the Republican Party with the assist of Newt (the Bomb Thrower) Gingrich was getting rid of what they called RINOs or Republicans In Name Only. What was left of the non-grifting or at least believers in using politics for something besides getting themselves and their donors wealthy were no longer around.

          IIRC, the Democrats finished their coup by the end of Clinton’s second term and the Republicans during G. W. Bush’s first term. I am not surprised that just after 2000 the Democrats were a different party.

    1. flora

      Thanks. It strikes me the current Dem party is a high school-like clique. That explains much.

    2. The Rev Kev

      Maybe what they wanted to see was you representing your own consultancy firm or corporation. Individuals they find hard to get a handle on.

      1. Big River Bandido

        The modern Dimocrat party follows its old Tammany rule of keeping control within its tight corporate circle. “We don’t want anyone that nobody sent.” Anyone who’s an outsider — no, they definitely don’t want people like that. They only want people they know they can control — independence and competence are mortal threats to them.

        1. The Rev Kev

          There is a major difference however – a critical one. Sure Tammany Hall was as corrupt as but they stayed in power by giving material benefits. They would set up immigrants straight off the boat with accommodations, find jobs for people in need, see that midwives went to mothers about to deliver, find places for people to stay whose apartment building burned down, etc. There is a diary where this guy describes his day where he is doing all this from early morning to the middle of the night. And in return all those people delivered their votes to Tammany big time. Modern Tammany? They only deliver to their donors and as far as they are concerned, the ordinary people can go to hell. A Tammany politician would never tolerate people living on the streets for example.

        2. Mark Gisleson

          Since we’ve gotten out it’s only gotten worse because the people we thought were idiots then are now the old hands advising the crony hires. This is golng to be Idiocracy: The Party before it’s all over.

    3. Jeff H

      I can’t beat your evaluation of the D party but I can confirm that it is very much the case in my part of Western Pennsyltukkey. I stated in a previous post that I stayed away from electoral politics until 2002. I saw first hand even on the most basic levels electoral politics was corrupt at its core. I moved back to the Keystone state when I quit working in 2002. All my attempts to get involved in even the township level were thwarted. It seems to all come down to privilege the powerful to profit or promote progressive policy and perish.

    4. Procopius

      I wish you had explained more clearly how Parkinson’s Law had anything to do with your story (which I absolutely believe). Parkinson’s Law is: Work expands to fill the time available, which has corollaries like the British Ministry of Colonial Affairs building a huge new headquarters building just as the Empire collapsed. I’m not sure which Internet Law applies in your case (I really don’t know very many of them), and maybe it is Parkinson’s Law, but I don’t see it.

    1. Jason Boxman

      I think the tables might be a suffering from a bit of malformed HTML table layouts? It’ll looking out of alignment for me.

  10. matt

    zyndemic is real ive had to switch to nicotine gum. :(
    it is interesting how nicotine consumption methods are switching. the only people i know under the age of 30 who smoke are edgy punks, most people vape. though ive seen the increase in non inhalent nicotine popularity among my peers- its just so much more convenient. leaves less traces. the anti smoking campaigns have given gen z a real anti smoking stigma, so openly consuming it is a sign of rebellion. wheras sneaky patches/pouches/lozenges/gum are fine.

    1. Christian Bonanno

      The oxidative stress that comes along with vaping damages the mitochondria, which negates all the medicinal effects of the nicotine. So I am all for patches. And I think vaping may play a part in the increasing rates of depression in young people. It is sad actually. They think they are being rebels but they are being played by corporations.

      The new “Torches of Freedom“.

  11. JM

    I saw the Trump quote about Milwaukee on the cities subreddit yesterday, reacting exactly as you might expect.

    But Trump has basically no down side slamming Milwaukee. He isn’t likely to win the county, or Madison’s; and the rest of the state isn’t super fond of those two cities. They’re often seen as lording over the rest of the state, so he could build or entrench some goodwill from it.

  12. ambrit

    Re. Botticelli does Moses: I love how one of the Ethiopians on the left of the canvas is looking straight out of the scene towards the viewer. Breaking the Fourth Wall goes way back in art. The trees, no matter who painted them, perfectly frame the figure. I’d love to see the sketches for this work. Somewhere, hiding under another Botticelli attributed work lies the initial test version of this. Canvas was too valuable to use once and throw away. (It still is.) Like with the figural works of Klimt, a program of x-ray inspections of canvases would turn up some fascinating things.

  13. Pat

    Correct me if I am wrong, but didn’t some of Hunter’s family testify for the prosecution?
    I don’t think you can say that about Trump either.
    Not for nothing but I think the Biden family support is about a quarter of inch deep. And when he needed real support was more than a few decades ago. But then I also think that their dogs are indicative of the Biden’s parenting skills.

    1. griffen

      Yeah I think that daughter took the stand, and the testimony made for an unfortunate reading of the real time Hunter pretending at playing the role of a parent. Lest it be forgotten, there was that sweet deal of a plea bargain just last summer which fell apart when the presiding judge read the details and asked some legitimate questions.

      So for a hot minute at least, it did appear Hunter was preparing to walk away from his troubles with the steady, able help of the Feds, no less.

  14. Jason Boxman

    So it’s a shame for Biden that he’s murdered so many of his senior voters. Oops.

  15. Wukchumni

    It’s true, it’s true, the Senate has made it clear
    The climate in DC isn’t perfect all the year

    A law was made a distant moon ago here
    July and August can be too hot
    And there used to be a 6 year limit to the show here for Kamala

    Senate is forbidden after December
    And exits not having done a lot
    By order, Senate lingered through at least November for Kamala

    Kamala: Camelot?
    I know it sounds a bit bizarre
    But for Kamala: Camelot
    That’s how conditions are

    Her Senate reign fell after election
    By January 20th, when the possibility looms near
    In short, there’s simply not a more presumptive spot
    For happily ever after in than here for Kamala

    Kamala: Camelot
    I know it gives a person pause
    But in Camelot: Kamala?
    Those are the legal laws

    The show may never be thrust upon her spot
    But if Joe wavers, an answer must appear
    In short, there’s simply not a more easy entry slot
    For happily ever after here in the White House for Kamala

    Camelot, performed by Richard Burton

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4TvL7YlVWEo

  16. Jason Boxman

    Why are Democrats turning sour? Biden’s outlook does not look good.

    In the betting markets, which we view as an aggregation of all opinions into one probability, Trump’s lead over Biden (bottom panel) is the largest since last March. This is despite him being found guilty last month.

    Note this is an average of the eight largest betting markets offering wagers on who will win in November.

    https://x.com/biancoresearch/status/1801734465611567388?s=46

    1. The Rev Kev

      Putin throwing the fox into the Swiss peace conference hen-house just before it gets started.

    2. sarmaT

      The Godfather gives you an offer you can’t refuse. The Putin gives you an offer you can’t accept.

    3. Jeff H

      This might be a bit deeper than Putin’s statement but he is following a perspective that existed since the 1930’s There’s a movie from the 40’s based on Joseph E Davies book “Mission to Moscow” They used to show it almost yearly on TCM. Not so much anymore. The opening scene is the Soviet representative to the League of Nations pleading for a discussion of a comprehensive security agreement for Europe. Compare that to the wording of Putin’s 2007 address to the Munich Security Conference and others before and since.
      We keep playing this stupid game. It’s time to understand that we are no different or better than anyone else and sometimes the best thing to do is shut up and listen.
      Think about what Kennedy was calling for back in the day… not a negative peace, a lack of active conflict but a positive peace…a peace of cooperation and common benefit.

  17. britzklieg

    Left for Paris in diapers
    Praying he won’t poop on the stage
    Despite depends and uppers
    Jill still had to whisk him away

    Joe’s beyond the stage of decay
    Fumbling his lines, hobbling away
    Joe’s beyond the point of decay
    Lost his mind

    Look’s like nothing’s gonna change
    Everything still remains the same
    He can’t do what 10 people tell him to do
    You can bet he’ll remain the same. listen

    Sit down, spare us more heartburn
    your dementia is surely well earned
    two thousand flubs a day
    rubs the whole damn world the wrong way, listen

    Joe’s beyond the stage of decay
    Fumbling his lines, hobbling away
    Joe’s beyond the point of decay
    Lost his mind

    [whistling – past the grave yard]

    Sitting on the Dock of the Bay (apologies to Otis)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rTVjnBo96Ug&list=RDrTVjnBo96Ug&start_radio=1&rv=rTVjnBo96Ug&t=0&ab_channel=RHINO

  18. Wukchumni

    There was a now legendary back-up to get into Sequoia NP on Memorial Day weekend, where at one point it went about 5 miles right through Tiny Town~~~ snaking along, thanks to a 30% increase in vehicle entries over prior Memorial Day traffic in years past.

    50% more weekends are where chaos forms, avoid them if possible.

    I really felt sorry for these poor sojourners, by the time they get into the Giant Forest where goodies such as the Sherman Tree et al are, they’ll find that there is no parking left, as other vehicles going nowhere fast, bird-dog other tourists coming back to their rides, looking for a place to finally park.

    Macron put the hurt on a backpack trip i’d planned with my French ex-pat friends, as we were gonna leave on July 3rd, and they want to vote and in the past have had to go to the French consulate in Sacramento to do so, but can now do it online, albeit only on July 4th, La vache!

    1. Carolinian

      Over Memorial weekend I chose to pass through an insanely crowded Great Smoky Mtns NP in order to see the aftermath of the fire damage from a few years back.

      Cars were circling the Headquarters lot forlornly looking for an empty spot and at one popular hiking area they were jammed into every available foot of shoulder. The park has taken to charging a $5 parking fee for lingering more than fifteen minutes and you can’t blame them as there is hardly any parking in this national park of hiking trails with a public highway between two major tourist traps–Gatlinburg and Cherokee, NC. There is no formal entrance with fee collectors.

      Of course I’ve been there many times and was just passing through. But it’s getting so we may need more parks or fewer people. Or better timing than mine.

  19. Lee

    “• Please fire me into the sun.”

    I’m definitely stealing that one. If I keep saying “kill” or “shoot” me now some people I know might well do that, particularly as the political season heats up. But nobody I know has the means of firing me into the sun. Dissolution into the light, assuming the heat doesn’t cook you first, is not all that unappealing.

  20. JTMcPhee

    On the chances of ability breaking out successfully in the misleadership class, read “Harrison Bergeron” for a rebuttal of sorts: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harrison_Bergeron

    We’ve had a few public intellectuals and leaders who tried to throw off the normalizing handicaps, like Malcom X, MLK, JFK, RFK, Che, Gaddafi and more.

    Amongst the PMC, spooks and stare security generally, how many are appointed or wannabes are really Diane Moon Glampers in potential or in office?

  21. Acacia

    Anybody have a take on the Arcturus Therapeutics self-amplifying mRNA a.k.a. Replicon vaccine (ARCT-154)?

    This has been approved and rolled out in Japan, through a number of academics are questioning its safety, e.g.:

    https://twitter.com/Trilliana_x/status/1791631323922350343

    Here, Prof. Murakami’s concern is that contrary to how ARCT-154 is being billed, the body in fact multiplies and replicates the entire mRNA structure and has the potential to be spread person-to-person.

  22. Bsn

    Late to the water cooler but I love the inclusion of Red Leaf Lettuce in the picture. I have learned that not only does Red Leaf Lettuce last fairly long in the heat, AKA slow to bolt, but it also repels slugs. Slugs don’t like it. You can plant it on the outside edge of a bed (raised or otherwise) and the center of the bed will have many less slugs.

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