2:00PM Water Cooler 6/21/2024

By Lambert Strether of Corrente

Bird Song of the Day

Mountain Wren-Babbler, Mount Kinabalu, Sabah, Malaysia. “Singing individual was once fed by another individual, receiving a caterpillar while it continued singing. It started singing after human imitation of a few song notes it made before the recording.”

“Birds Star in Spectacular Scenes for This Year’s Audubon Photography Awards” [Colossal]. Here’s one:

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In Case You Might Miss…

(1) Allan McDonald and the Challenger debacle.

(2) Trump erases Biden money advantage after Bragg verdict.

(3) Unexpected Bourdieu stan.

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Look for the Helpers

“Remembering Allan McDonald: He Refused To Approve Challenger Launch, Exposed Cover-Up” [NPR]. “McDonald persistently cited three reasons for a delay: freezing overnight temperatures that could compromise the booster rocket joints; ice forming on the launchpad and spacecraft that could damage the orbiter heat tiles at launch; and a forecast of rough seas at the booster rocket recovery site. He also told NASA officials, ‘If anything happens to this launch, I wouldn’t want to be the person that has to stand in front of a board of inquiry to explain why we launched.’ … ‘There are two ways in which [McDonald’s] actions were heroic,’ recalls Mark Maier, who directs a leadership program at Chapman University and produced a documentary about the Challenger launch decision. ‘One was on the night before the launch, refusing to sign off on the launch authorization and continuing to argue against it,’ Maier says. ‘And then afterwards in the aftermath, exposing the cover-up that NASA was engaged in.” This part is amazing: “Twelve days after Challenger exploded, McDonald stood up in a closed hearing of a presidential commission investigating the tragedy. He was ‘in the cheap seats in the back’ when he raised his hand and spoke. He had just heard a NASA official completely gloss over a fundamental fact…. Former Secretary of State William Rogers chaired the commission and stared into the auditorium, squinting in the direction of the voice. ‘I’ll never forget Chairman Rogers said, ‘Would you please come down here on the floor and repeat what I think I heard?” McDonald said.” • Wouldn’t happen today….

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My email address is down by the plant; please send examples of there (“Helpers” in the subject line). In our increasingly desperate and fragile neoliberal society, everyday normal incidents and stories of “the communism of everyday life” are what I am looking for (and not, say, the Red Cross in Hawaii, or even the UNWRA in Gaza).

Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

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2024

Less than a half a year to go!

Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:

At this point, we should entertain the hypothesis that the Bragg verdict is a damp squib, unless Biden can somehow leverage it in the debate. Swing States (more here) still Brownian-motioning around. Of course, it goes without saying that these are all state polls, therefore bad, and most of the results are within the margin of error. If will be interesting to see whether the verdict in Judge Merchan’s court affects the polling, and if so, how. NOTE Sorry for the excess red dots; I can’t seem to make them go away!

* * *

Trump (R): “Donald Trump Hit by Devastating Poll From Fox News” [Newsweek]. “onald Trump trailed President Joe Biden in a Fox News 2024 presidential poll for the first time since late last year. A survey of 1,095 registered voters from the conservative news network showed that Biden is leading his presumptive Republican rival by two points (50 percent to 48 percent)…. he June Fox News poll is the first one the network has conducted since Trump became the first U.S. president in history to be convicted of a crime. …. Other factors Fox News suggests have contributed to Biden’s improvement in the polls are more voters considering the U.S. economy to be in “excellent or good” shape, and the president recently announcing tougher immigration policies.”

Trump (R): “Trump vs. Biden Polls: A Close Race Gets Even Closer” [Ed Kilgore, New York Magazine]. “All in all, it’s hard to claim evidence for a significant change in the race now that the 45th president is a convicted criminal. Though perhaps the small signs of erosion in his support will quell some of the ever-present panic among Democrats who don’t understand why Biden isn’t rolling toward an easy victory. Trump does, however, maintain a much broader path to 270 electoral votes given his sizable leads in Sun Belt battleground states (Arizona, Nevada, and particularly Georgia and North Carolina). At this point, Biden still needs to sweep the Rust Belt states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin and avoid upsets elsewhere. Many Trump backers appear to believe that the former president’s overall national lead in most polls guarantees victory given his Electoral College advantage in both 2016 (when he won) and 2020 (when he narrowly lost). But there’s a lot of evidence that changes in both candidates’ bases of support since 2020 could shrink or even reverse Trump’s ability to outperform his popular vote in the Electoral College.” And: “The residual effect of Trump’s criminal conviction may not be fully known until he’s sentenced on July 11. And another criminal trial before November (still possible in the federal case involving the January 6 insurrection) could affect perceptions of the scofflaw former president as well.” • Doubling down on ponies never helps.

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Trump (D): “Trump’s felony conviction fuels a donation surge that narrows Biden’s advantage” [WaPo]. • So how’s that lawfare thing workin’ out for ya?

Trump (R): “Trump raised so much last month he erased Biden’s cash advantage” [Politico]. “Former President Donald Trump’s huge May fundraising haul erased President Joe Biden’s longstanding cash advantage as the two gear up for a rematch. Trump’s campaign had $116.6 million in the bank at the end of May, compared to $91.6 million for Biden. But the former president’s campaign filing Thursday showed a significant surge in the final two days of the month — the day the jury handed down a guilty verdict and the day after. Just looking at large-dollar donations, the campaign reported receiving at least six times as many daily donations those two days compared to a typical day. And the fundraising spike was likely even greater, considering that doesn’t include unitemized donations of less than $200 or any donations that the joint fundraising contributions hadn’t yet transferred. In total, Trump’s campaign and the RNC reported just over $170 million cash on hand combined at the end of May, overtaking Biden and the Democratic National Committee, which reported just shy of $157 million.” And: “The latest campaign finance filings with the Federal Election Commission also revealed how Biden has continued to build out his campaign apparatus, while Trump has largely held onto cash.” • Yep. Hitherto, no air war from Trump at all, constant bombardment from Biden. Just like Clinton in 2016, the Biden campaign need to constantly pump air into the balloon to keep it aloft. But now–

Trump (R): “Timothy Mellon, Secretive Donor, Gives $50 Million to Pro-Trump Group” [New York Times]. The deck: “The cash from Mr. Mellon, a reclusive billionaire who has also been a major donor to a super PAC supporting Robert F. Kennedy Jr., is among the largest single disclosed gifts ever.” Whoopsie, sorry Bobby. More: “Timothy Mellon, a reclusive heir to a Gilded Age fortune, donated $50 million to a super PAC supporting Donald J. Trump the day after the former president was convicted of 34 felonies, according to new federal filings, an enormous gift that is among the largest single disclosed contributions ever. The donation’s impact on the 2024 race is expected to be felt almost immediately. Within days of the contribution, the pro-Trump super PAC, Make America Great Again Inc., said in a memo that it would begin reserving $100 million in advertising through Labor Day.” • Let the air war begin (though I bet they backload the advertising and hang onto some cash).

Trump (R): “Trump’s postconviction fundraising surge wipes out cash deficit” [The Hill]. • You’d think a party as spook-adjacent as the Democrats would understand the concept of blowback.

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Biden (D): “Biden’s First Re-Election Test” [Seymour Hersh]. “First of all, there is a serious concern among the Democratic Party leadership and the major Democratic fundraisers, primarily the big donors in New York City, about Biden’s ability to defeat Trump in November. This is, of course, not to be spoken of in public. A major touchstone for many will be Biden’s performance in the debate. The president is going to need to match the intensity he demonstrated at his State of the Union address in March next week to keep his contributors happy. A shaky performance, I have been told by two longtime politicos who have direct knowledge, will increase pressure on Democratic Party to do something drastic, and unprecedented, before the November election.” • When things get so bad that owners feel it’s time for them to step in and run the company themselves, things generally go from bad to worse.

Biden (D): “1 big thing: Dems fear Biden loss” [Axios]. Many senior Democrats — including some of President Biden’s aides — doubt his theory for victory, which relies on voter fears about Jan. 6, political violence, democracy and Donald Trump’s character…. A Democratic strategist in touch with the campaign tells Axios: ‘It is unclear to many of us watching from the outside whether the president and his core team realize how dire the situation is right now, and whether they even have a plan to fix it. That is scary.’ People close to Biden tell Axios they worry about raising concerns in meetings, because his longtime loyalists can exile dissenters. Biden’s inner circle has full faith in the strategy developed by the president and his longtime aide, Mike Donilon. That puts them on an island. Polls show Biden tied or behind, even after a slight bump after Trump’s criminal conviction. Biden’s former chief of staff Ron Klain, who has known Donilon for decades, told Axios the inner circle’s view boils down to: ‘In Mike I trust.'” • “People close to Biden” think Biden might bite them, like his dogs. That’s a problem. Presumably, they’ve talked to “Doctor” Jill, who I assume rations his meds, because who else, and gotten nowhere, possibly for the same reason.

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Biden (D): “Do Liberals Have It All Wrong About How to Beat Trump?” [New York Magazine]. The deck: “Backed by Reid Hoffman, a centrist polling picks a big fight in the Democratic Party.” More: “”There is a lot of polling out there, but what we felt was missing from all of it was polling that is just victory-minded,” says Evan Roth Smith, Blueprint’s lead pollster, and the founding partner of the political-consulting firm Slingshot Strategies. “The Democratic Party needs polling that just says, ‘We have to win this election, and so here is where the electorate is, here is what the Democratic Party has done and can credibly run on.; Let’s see what works and just tell everybody what we find….. The EV tax credit and college-debt relief are both losers, according to Blueprint’s data, because they are both coded as preoccupations of the elite; instead, what Biden should be focusing on is his efforts to bring down the cost of pharmaceuticals, take on big corporations, tax the rich, and lower prices in the face of rising inflation. Roth Smith believes Democrats talk too much about Trump’s odious character, his legal liabilities, and the threat he poses to democracy instead of his economic record that includes a massive tax cut for the rich, which Blueprint found to be staggeringly unpopular. These unorthodox findings have helped make Blueprint the buzzy polling outfit of 2024, its findings pinging around the internet and making their way into articles where reporters and pundits try to make sense of an election cycle that so far has avoided familiar narratives.” • So Trump better not waste any more time on EVs? As his Vegas speech showed he did (the candidate’s time being a campaign’s most valuable resource).

Biden (D): All true:

However, (1) Biden isn’t running on any of this (though it will be interesting to see if he pivots in the debate (and now, dicking around with “fees” won’t be enough)), and (2) all these examples, every single one, are Democrats “fighting for.” Who’s so say that the DOJ in a second Biden Administration won’t step in and extort settle from these malefactors, exactly like DOJ’s unconconscionable “deferred prosecution agreement” with Boeing?

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“DNC’s Zoom nomination plans forge ahead amid talk of ditching Biden” [Washington Times]. “Early this month, the DNC advanced a plan to approve the nomination of the Biden-Harris ticket virtually ahead of the convention. Party leaders initiated the move when it appeared that Ohio wouldn’t change its Aug. 7 filing deadline for presidential candidates to appear on the ballot, which would have made the nomination at the Chicago convention too late for Mr. Biden. Ohio has since moved the filing deadline to Sept. 1 [missed this, sorry –lambert], but Democrats say they don’t trust the Republican-led state legislature and governor and are pushing forward with a virtual nomination. The DNC has not disclosed a date for the virtual roll call. Josh Putnam, party rules expert and founder of FHQ Strategies LLC, a nonpartisan political consulting venture, said a virtual vote would have to wait until after July 13, when Indiana Democrats select convention delegates. Mr. Putnam said the virtual vote may be more of a contingency plan at this point. ‘The party was simultaneously creating some insurance but also buying themselves some time to figure out the particulars of any would-be virtual vote, including the timing,’ Mr. Putnam said. A virtual vote would lock in the Biden-Harris ticket and thwart a convention floor fight over increasing concerns about the incumbents’ chances of winning reelection.” • Maybe the DNC can hire the same firm that wrote the app for the Iowa 2020 caucus….

* * *

The Debate: “Trump gets the final word at CNN debate after coin flip” [CNN]. “Former President Donald Trump will get the final word when he debates President Joe Biden on CNN next week, after a coin flip to determine podium placement and the order of closing statements. The coin landed on the Biden campaign’s pick — tails — which meant his campaign got to choose whether it wanted to select the president’s podium position or the order of closing statements. Biden’s campaign chose to select the right podium position, which means the Democratic president will be on the right side of television viewers’ screens and his Republican rival will be on viewers’ left. Trump’s campaign then chose for the former president to deliver the last closing statement, which means Biden will go first at the conclusion of the debate.” • Any debater knows that speaking last is an enormous advantage. I think the Biden campaign really stumbled, here. The closing statement is only two minutes, so Trump can’t ramble, but it’s possible to do a lot of damage in two minutes, and presumbly Trump’s team will prep well for what could be the climax of his political career (if he takes Biden down).

The Debate: “Trump primes response in case of strong Biden debate showing” [The Hill]. “Trump and other conservatives have in recent days floated the baseless claim that if Biden does well at next week’s debate in Atlanta, it will be because he’s using some kind of performance enhancer. ‘Republicans would be wise to play down expectations,” one Republican strategist said. “Make the point that Biden is a good debater.’ Trump has so far declined to make that case. Instead, he’s fluctuated between claims that Biden is feeble and incompetent, and preemptively trying to create a narrative that if Biden does well, it’s because he had the help of some unnamed, mysterious substance. ‘He’s gonna be so pumped up. He’s gonna be pumped up,’ Trump told supporters at a Wisconsin rally Tuesday…. Trump and other conservatives have in recent days floated the baseless claim that if Biden does well at next week’s debate in Atlanta, it will be because he’s using some kind of performance enhancer.” • Biden’s performance fluctuates greatly, as we’ve seen since at least Iowa 2020. A stimulant of some kind is a perfectly reasonable explanation (“juiced up”). Hopefully Trump doesn’t over-egg the pudding on this in the debate.

The Debate: “Is the Debate To Be Biden’s Last Stand?” [Steve Huntley, John Kass News]. “So why an early debate? Influential Democrats might see it as the last chance to save the party in November. These movers and shakers might figure that if Biden has a crippling debate performance of disconnected ramblings, meaningless utterances, angry outbursts and undeniable mental decline, there’s still time to persuade him to drop out and for the national convention in late July to produce a replacement.” And here’s some lateral thinking: “Harris is the focus of yet another option getting a little media talk in Washington. This idea would be, keep Biden on the ticket but have Harris drop out, opening the way for a replacement vice presidential nominee better viewed by the voters as a legitimate potential president.” • Hmm. Just not Hillary, mkay?

* * *

Biden (D): “DOJ concealing info on probe into whether Hunter Biden violated ‘debauchery’ law, watchdog says” [FOX]. “A government watchdog group filed suit in Delaware federal court this week, seeking to compel the Justice Department to produce records that may determine whether Hunter Biden should be further investigated under a 1910 law relating to ‘prostitution or debauchery.’ The Heritage Foundation’s Oversight Project petitioned theing from a time when prostitution was more prevalent in urban areas, states it is a felony to ‘knowingly transport… in interstate or foreign commerce… any woman or girl for the purpose of prostituti same Wilmington bench where Biden was found guilty on gun charges this month, contending that there is a significant amount of evidence the first son was being probed on Mann Act grounds. The law, stemmon or debauchery.'” • Presumably the Supreme Court would rule, and quite sensibly, in favor of debauchery, but were there business records violations?

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Republican Funhouse

“Republican arrested after ‘chasing an adult dancer on a road while waving a gun at 2:45am’… and his campaign releases bizarre statement” [Daily Mail]. “Neil Friske, 62, has a record as a hardline conservative and has put faith and family at the heart of his campaign to be reelected to the state House of Representatives. He was arrested after chasing an adult dancer following a disagreement, according to the Michigan Information and Research Service, which covers the state capitol.” • Classic.

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

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Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

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Airborne Transmission

“Ventilation matters – why clean air is vital to health” [National Engineering Policy Centre]. UK. “Effective ventilation is essential to protecting public health – buildings need to be able to “breathe” and get a supply of fresh air. Preventing the spread of infections in the first place is better than trying to manage illness, and people should be able to have confidence that the air in the buildings they use is safe to breathe. You wouldn’t want to drink dirty water so neither should you want to breathe in dirty air!” • This is swipe-friendly and uses non-technical language, so at first seems light-weight, but it covers a lot, with may good resources (especially for building managers). Meanwhile, don’t be like this:

Transmission: H5N1

CDC: “We don’t know anything”:

Science: “Yes you do”:

Maskstravaganza

“Association of institutional masking policies with healthcare-associated SARS-CoV-2 infections in Swiss acute care hospitals during the BA.4/5 wave (CH-SUR study): a retrospective observational study” [Antimicrobial Resistance and Infection Control]. From the Abstract: “We included 2’980 SARS-CoV-2 infections from 13 institutions, 444 (15%) were classified as healthcare-associated. Between June 20 and June 30, 2022, six (46%) institutions switched to a more stringent mask policy. The percentage of healthcare-associated infections subsequently declined in institutions with policy switch but not in the others. In particular, the switch from situative masking (standard precautions) to general masking of HCW in contact with patients was followed by a strong reduction of healthcare-associated infections (rate ratio 0.39, 95% CI 0.30–0.49).” • So one-way masking, where the HCW masks up only when you ask them to, doesn’t work (or, more precisely, works to sicken and kill people). News you can use!

“Effect of wearing N95 facemasks on the mode of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the indoor environment of a hospital” [Aerosol Science and Technology]. “In this study, three distinct interior hospital environments were selected for surface and airborne viral sampling to ascertain the impact of wearing an N95 facemask on the spread of the virus. SARS-CoV-2 RNA was detectable in the air of an emergency intensive care unit corridor, where over 30% of mobile personnel did not wear N95 facemasks strictly. By contrast, SARS-CoV-2 RNA was not detectable in the air of a geriatric respiratory diseases ward or in that of an emergency laboratory, where N95 facemasks were mandatory for both mobile staff and patients. Additionally, SARS-CoV-2 RNA was detected in all object surface samples collected in this study (p < 0.05). These results indicate that surface contact transmission should be further investigated as a possible mode of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and that the strictness of N95 facemask usage may influence indoor transmission of aerosol-dominated types of SARS-CoV-2. The present findings could contribute to reducing the spread of both SARS-CoV-2 and other respiratory diseases and could advance the understanding of how SARS-CoV-2 spreads." • Idea: Get SARS-CoV-2 out of the air and it won't land on the surfaces.... "Study Confirms One Type of COVID Mask Is 'Significantly Better' Than Others" [ScienceAlert]. “A team led by researchers at the University of Maryland in the US asked 44 volunteers with COVID-19 to breathe into a bespoke device called the Gesundheit II Machine, which can measure the number of virus particles in exhaled breath. Four different mask types were tested this way, and the participants were told to vary their vocalizations while wearing the masks – one of the tests involved singing “Happy Birthday”, for example. Each volunteer completed a 30-minute breathing session with a mask on, and another 30-minute session with no mask as a control. Of the four types of masks tested, the duckbill N95 mask came out on top: it blocked 99 percent of large particles and 98 percent of small particles from getting out into the air. Overall, 98 percent of the viral load was blocked by the N95. ‘The research shows that any mask is much better than no mask, and an N95 is significantly better than the other options,’ says Donald Milton, an environmental health scientist and clinician at the University of Maryland.”

Censorship and Propaganda

This high-level, two-phase analysis of “social norming” is as good as any I’ve seen:

Do the two phases match up with your memories, readers? (Sorry for the smallish type, but I needed to quote the entire thread.)

Elite Maleficence

Why can’t all hospitals be like the VA?

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Bad data:

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TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

Wastewater
This week[1] CDC June 10: Last Week[2] CDC June 3 (until next week):

Variants [3] CDC June 22 Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC June 8

Hospitalization
New York[5] New York State, data June 17: National [6] CDC June 1:
Positivity
National[7] Walgreens June 10: Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic June 15:
Travelers Data
Positivity[9] CDC May 27: Variants[10] CDC May 27:
Deaths
Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11]CDC June 8: Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12]CDC June 8:

LEGEND

1) for charts new today; all others are not updated.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, with hot spots annotated. The numbers in the right hand column are identical. The dots on the map are not.

[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) KP.3 dominating.

[4] (ER) This is the best I can do for now. At least data for the entire pandemic is presented.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) A slight decrease followed by a return to a slight, steady increase. (The New York city area has form; in 2020, as the home of two international airports (JFK and EWR) it was an important entry point for the virus into the country (and from thence up the Hudson River valley, as the rich sought to escape, and then around the country through air travel.)

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). This is the best I can do for now. Note the assumption that Covid is seasonal is built into the presentation. At least data for the entire pandemic is presented.

[7] (Walgreens) 4.3%; big jump. (Because there is data in “current view” tab, I think white states here have experienced “no change,” as opposed to have no data.)

[8] (Cleveland) Still going up!

[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Up. Those sh*theads at CDC have changed the chart so that it doesn’t even run back to 1/21/23, as it used to, but now starts 1/1/24. There’s also no way to adjust the time rasnge. CDC really doesn’t want you to be able to take a historical view of the pandemic, or compare one surge to another. In an any case, that’s why the shape of the curve has changed.

[10] (Travelers: Variants) Same deal. Those sh*theads. I’m leaving this here for another week because I loathe them so much:

[11] Deaths low, but positivity up.

[12] Deaths low, ED up.

Stats Watch

There are no official statistics of interest today.

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Finance: “Why PayPal’s Comeback Plan Could Take Years, If It Works At All” [Forbes]. “Nearly a decade after its spin-off from eBay (which acquired the payments startup in 2002), PayPal still has a profitable franchise, with over $4 billion in net income in 2023. Its digital financial network of 220 million monthly active customers is one of the world’s largest, standing behind juggernauts like Apple Pay and China’s Alipay. While PayPal has done dozens of acquisitions and entered nearly as many new business lines, more than 60% of its $14 billion in gross profits still comes from the PayPal button, according to Autonomous Research. That’s the icon people click to pay for anything from tchotchkes on eBay or Etsy to diapers from Target. Many users still see it as a safer way to transact instead of trusting an unfamiliar website or person. But transaction growth for PayPal’s branded button is slowing–last year, it grew just 7% in dollar terms, compared with about 9% for ecommerce overall.” • Wall Street wants “innovation.” Please, no.

Manufacturing: “Boeing Is Expected to Evade Criminal Charges for Violating Settlement” [New York Times]. “The Justice Department is expected to allow Boeing to escape criminal prosecution for violating the terms of a 2021 settlement related to problems with the company’s 737 Max 8 model that led to two deadly plane crashes in 2018 and 2019, according to people familiar with the discussions.

Instead, the Justice Department plans to offer Boeing what is known as a deferred prosecution agreement, which is often used to impose monitoring and compliance obligations on businesses accused of financial crimes or corruption, as opposed to trying to convict the company. The agreement will stipulate that Boeing install a federal monitor to oversee safety improvements, according to the people familiar with the situation. Federal prosecutors said in May that Boeing had violated a previous deferred prosecution agreement by failing to set up and maintain a program to detect and prevent violations of U.S. anti-fraud laws.” • Oh.

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Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 41 Fear (previous close: 40 Fear) [CNN]. One week ago: 38 (Fear). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Jun 21 at 1:40:17 PM ET.

Public Health

“The NIH Intramural ME Study: “Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics” (Part 1)” [Thoughts about M.E.]. M.E. = Myalgic Encephalomyelitis. I know nothing about M.E. at all; but after watching NIH blow $1 billion (now $1.6 billion) on Long Covid with nothing to show for it, I can well believe the post title. Perhaps this four-part series will be useful to any M.E. advocates in the readership who aren’t already familiar with it.

Fa-Fa-Fa-Fashion

This men’s clothing account is one of my hidden vices; it really explains both manufacturing and aesthetics:

Plus he stans for Bourdieu, the only account I know on the Twitter that does.

The Screening Room

“Smiles of a Summer Night (video, full length) [Ingmar Bergman, YouTube (Furzy Mouse)]. • For the summer solstice.

The Gallery

This time not wallpaper, but an actual wall:

Class Warfare

“Nearly half of Dell’s full-time workforce in the U.S. has rejected returning to the office. They’d rather work from home than get promoted” [Fortune]. “Remote workers were willing to defy company policy because the perks of staying at home simply outweighed what they believed working in person had to offer. ‘The more time I have to spend in the office, the less time, money, and personal space I have for all of that,’ an employee told Insider. ‘I can do my job just as well from home and have all of those personal benefits as well.’ Other employees found that returning to in-person work simply wasn’t practical given the nature of their job. ‘My team is spread out around the world. Almost 90% of the team did the same, as in our case there was no real advantage going to the office,’ another employee said. Multiple Dell employees told Insider they work with team members in different time zones and held meetings requiring them to be on the clock at times when being on-site wouldn’t be appropriate. Others said they lived too far away from a company location or that a Dell office near them had recently been shut down. Dell did not immediately respond to Fortune’s request for comment, but told Insider it believes “in-person connections paired with a flexible approach are critical to drive innovation and value differentiation.'” • “Drive” is one of those words. “Drive innovation” is one of those pjhrase. In any case, Dell just optimized for office politicians. I’m sure that will go well.

How the interview went:

News of the Wired

Dad.

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Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From MR:

MR writes: “Azalea with swarming bees, NC. This was not a good location for a hive, so the “bee man” was summoned. At dusk he encouraged them into a new hive box, with an audience of neighborhood children and adults and some education of both. He has relocated the hive a few miles away.” Fantastic! And how nice that MR’s locality has a bee man!

* * *

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About Lambert Strether

Readers, I have had a correspondent characterize my views as realistic cynical. Let me briefly explain them. I believe in universal programs that provide concrete material benefits, especially to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime example, but tuition-free college and a Post Office Bank also fall under this heading. So do a Jobs Guarantee and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can deliver on such programs, because the two are different flavors of neoliberalism (“Because markets”). I don’t much care about the “ism” that delivers the benefits, although whichever one does have to put common humanity first, as opposed to markets. Could be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don’t much care, as long as the benefits are delivered. To me, the key issue — and this is why Medicare for All is always first with me — is the tens of thousands of excess “deaths from despair,” as described by the Case-Deaton study, and other recent studies. That enormous body count makes Medicare for All, at the very least, a moral and strategic imperative. And that level of suffering and organic damage makes the concerns of identity politics — even the worthy fight to help the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton’s wars created — bright shiny objects by comparison. Hence my frustration with the news flow — currently in my view the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the other by out-of-power liberals and their allies in the State and in the press — a news flow that constantly forces me to focus on matters that I regard as of secondary importance to the excess deaths. What kind of political economy is it that halts or even reverses the increases in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I am also very hopeful that the continuing destruction of both party establishments will open the space for voices supporting programs similar to those I have listed; let’s call such voices “the left.” Volatility creates opportunity, especially if the Democrat establishment, which puts markets first and opposes all such programs, isn’t allowed to get back into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I love the tactical level, and secretly love even the horse race, since I’ve been blogging about it daily for fourteen years, but everything I write has this perspective at the back of it.

122 comments

    1. Lunker Walleye

      Surprising title given that “The Door in the Wall” seems to be the focus. The large areas of color make it feel modern, somehow.

      1. ambrit

        Reminds me of the H G Wells story. Through the wall into a green and verdant land. Leave the harsh and stony present behind. I do like the minimal presence of the railing in the very bottom of the frame. It adds a perspective, (pun intended,) to the composition.

  1. ajc

    The wired news for today is the CDX Global hack that has shut down 15,000+ US car dealerships from completely to using pen/paper/post-it notes to sell and service cars.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13548925/cyber-attack-cdk-car-dealerships-GM.html

    It’s likely an ongoing ransomware attack with hackers likely having exfiltrated all kinds of premium goodies like bank account numbers since CDX handles a lot of the backend for various dealership loans. Not that CDX is admitting that since they have gone mum on the actual details beyond letting everyone know they were hacked again after getting some of their systems back up for their customers, resulting in them shutting everything down again.

    https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/news/security/cdk-global-hacked-again-while-recovering-from-first-cyberattack/

    Plus lots of people with cars in service are unable to have them returned because CDX also manages auto parts inventories for various dealerships.

    It will be interesting what the downstream effect of this will be vis a vis politics, since dealership owners have outsize influence as donors at every level of government. It’s also interesting how this story has been largely ignored by MSM outlets until today, when it’s likely one of the most successful hacks in recent history, from the criminal hacker perspective, and will likely keep reverberating for months or years at various dealerships across the US as various credentials, bank acct info, etc circulates on the “darknet” over the coming months.

    1. ambrit

      Thanx. I emailed our daughter who recently bought a new car from a dealer. She is extra careful with her credit and banking activities. (Such as she doesn’t even carry a credit card any more. I offered to send her a Farraday card holder for any cards she might have. We’ll see.)

    2. Belle

      Ironically, it came out yesterday that the US was prohibiting sales of Kaspersky Antivirus, and today it came out that were sanctioning many Kaspersky staff members.
      I sent Kaspersky an email offering to be a plaintiff or witness should they sue. I also suggested the lawyers who got Concord Catering off the hook for their counsel.
      Just like Maria Sharapova, they can’t win fairly, so they kick them out.

      1. The Rev Kev

        If it is not based in the US, has back doors installed for the spooks, and US billionaires are not profiting from it who can send on kickbacks to Congress, then it has to be banned See Tik Tok.

  2. Darthbobber

    Fox News poll. I didn’t take the time to see what their methodology was, but to get a 50-48 margin either way this far out you have to be pushing the undecided really hard to pick someone.

  3. mrsyk

    it’s like a heatwave…. The noise to signal ratio on this appears to have entered a period of strong growth. Let’s enjoy some headlines from the usual suspects from my ai provided newsfeed. No links so cut and paste.
    The Guardian Weather tracker: Heatwaves have arrived in the northern hemisphere No kidding!
    MSNBC (morning Joe) ‘We are moving into a different climate era’, author warns amid record-breaking heat More no kidding, I could not bring myself to watch the video.
    Salon having had too much to drink gushes Heat waves have killed thousands this year​​​​​​​. Experts say the worst could be yet to come while the USA Today soberly advises us Severe heatwave around the globe responsible for over a dozen deaths (this headline now replaced on the article, the quote now in the lede)
    The neoliberals rags are well represented on my feed. Not seeing much from flyover news.
    yeah yeah, yeah yeah, yeah yeah.

  4. Henry Moon Pie

    ” I think the Biden campaign really stumbled, here.”

    Like the 49-ers taking the ball rather than deferring in overtime? You’re probably right, but I’m going to start watching Biden-approved shots and videos to see if they’re trying to avoid the left profile for some reason.

    1. IM Doc

      I think the entire “deepfake” endeavor by the Biden team will be looked at in the future as a huge mistake.

      It is like the Streisand effect. Now EVERYONE is going to be looking at these videos and seeing the obvious findings of dementia and neuro problems that they have been trying to hide for so long.

      Incredibly stupid.

      1. JBird4049

        If you are forced to debunk the fakes, best be sure that you have not been lying. It is like crying wolf, is it not?

    2. Washington Woman

      I can tell you, all the people I work with in the service industry are either not voting or not voting for Biden. And this is in Seattle. And I am slowly turning them all into Anarchists. The Dems have no idea what is coming. Or maybe they do and Biden is just a sacrifice.

      1. chris

        I think they do know what’s coming. I think they’re organizing to make sure it doesn’t matter. Looking ahead I think 2025 is going to be just like 2024, unless some power were pissing off decides to nuke us. Otherwise, nothing is going to change about the fundamentals of this country. Life will continue to get worse for everyone who isn’t a millionaire. We will endeavor to foster more war and dissension. Things will look more faded and tawdry in the US. China and others will zoom ahead into the future. And so it goes…

    1. Dr. John Carpenter

      And then what? Bernie won’t do anything his Good Friend Joe disapproves of, even if there was a snowball’s chance in hell of this happening.

  5. Tom Pfotzer

    Why Would a Country Want to Join BRICS?

    A case study: Malaysia. (youtube vid)

    The presenter – Sean Foo – is very knowledgeable, speaks clearly, uses excellent 3rd party interviews (Prime Minister of Malaysia, for ex), slides and graphics which add both clarity and authority to the presentation.

    The discussion addresses trade, currency (dependence upon the USD .vs. trading in the local currency), geopolitics, the Strait of Malacca (shipping chokepoint in SE Asia), and the foreign investment benefits of BRICS.

    If you’re looking for a good case study on why a country might decide to join BRICS, this is as good as I’ve seen.

    It’s only 13.5 minutes long, hard to beat that for info .vs. time-spent.

    Hat tip James @ MoA.

  6. Fred

    The rich are worried that the Democrats are going to tax them. At least that’s what Biden said during the State of the Union. They waited to see the outcome of Trump’s trial and are now certain that his popularity has not fallen and so they throw some money at him. They also see how effective buying a few judges are too.

    1. Lambert Strether Post author

      > They waited to see the outcome of Trump’s trial

      I think they also took a look at the substance of the business records case and thought “Who among us?” and I’m sure they were right. (Remember that the original classification as legal expenses came from a drop-down in antiquated accounting software.)

  7. Carolinian

    This idea would be, keep Biden on the ticket but have Harris drop out

    It’s an idea so sensible that they clearly won’t do it. Given Biden’s many weaknesses why would they run him with someone even less popular than he is? VPs have always been picked for their electoral usefulness so it’s not like it’s a racist move to anyone other than, yes, other Democrats.

    And this is droll

    https://scheerpost.com/2024/06/19/playing-president-ep-7-putin-and-north-korea-ukraine/

    1. britzklieg

      I’m starting to believe the Dems want Biden to lose. Assuming Congress will be split, which probably negates much of the over-hyped, fear mongered MAGA agenda, the Dems would perhaps like nothing better than to be able to continue the public derangement over Trump. It’s a cash cow. They clearly prefer screaming and chaos over legislating anything important (safety net) and since there’s bi-partisan agreement on forever wars (the motor of the US economy), racist hatred of Russia and China and support for the baddies in Ukraine and Israel, well… what’s not to like?

    2. FreeMarketApologist

      and “Just not Hillary, mkay?“: Yes, please no more Hillary. I can’t imagine that she would be more popular than Harris (maybe among rich Dem donors?), but on a national scale offering her as the Veep (and she’d use the pillow on Joe in his sleep), I think would seal Trump’s election.

      1. Amfortas the Hippie

        if they go with Herself, again, it signals to me that the bubble they reside in has a membrane stronger than spiderwebs, pound for pound.
        and that they really are THAT disconnected from the rest of the world.
        if that ends up being the case, well…behold the power of belief!
        perhaps theres some large expanse out west….in one of the deserts….where we can put the ruling class…ring it with razor wire…tigerparks,,,and crocodile habitats…reward them with food for policing themselves and not being overly troublesome….heres a candle, a lighter, and some ho-ho’s to last the month…make do…trade!….

        1. ambrit

          You might be flashing on the Heinlein story “Coventry.”
          Herself would win the tigers and crocs over to Her side pretty quickly. Like attracts like and all that.

          1. hk

            You are being too harsh on tigers and crocs. What did they do to deserve being grouped with the Hilary?

            1. ambrit

              Fair point. I guess one could consider it a case of the “ad animal” logical fallacy. As Saint Pilate said it; “Ecce tigris.”
              Realistically, discourses concerning Hillary are more properly classified as ‘demonology.” For ‘True Blue’ acolytes of Her, it becomes “demonolatry.”
              My apologies to tigers and crocs. I didn’t think it all the way through before I commented.

      2. nippersdad

        But just imagine all the joy that could be had from trolling the PUMAs again! Honestly, that has always been the primary attraction for getting her on the ballot, and with her running with Biden (He is with her?) you could get a real two-fer out of it.

        “What kind of amphetamine cocktail hot sauce does she have in her purse these days? Mmmm?”

        Delightful! But, seriously, a new and exciting plan for Biden to lose before we all get irradiated might not go amiss.

        1. Amfortas the Hippie

          jeez, nipper’s folks,lol.
          yall are welcome around my fire any ole time.
          i appreciate consistency in coolness.

        2. t

          PUMAs will be the death of me. They can bring her up at the slightest excuse and start spouting nonsense. If she was in her second term, just ice cream and unicorns all around.

          1. nippersdad

            She could do a Ben and Jerry’s type tie in with this group:

            https://www.mercersdairy.com/wineicecream

            No sign of a good chardonnay ice cream (fresh from the unicorn filled forests of Chappequa!) yet, but I can imagine a big picture of her on a carton staring out of a sub-zero freezer before the elections. It would be all the rage over at Nancy Pelosi’s house. Good as yet unused virtue signaling material there for the favorite PUMAs in your life.

            But maybe it would be better placed on a milk carton (Have you seen…?). One wouldn’t want to be too successful, after all.

              1. Dr. John Carpenter

                Hillary dead Enders who wouldn’t accept Obama won the 2008 primaries and threatened to not vote, or even vote for McCain. The phrase stood for Party Unity My Ass. Bear in mind, these are the exact same people who, without an ounce of irony, got so mad at Bernie supporters and created the whole Berniebro thing after he got screwed in 2016.

                1. Screwball

                  Yes.

                  I had a guy just the other day tell me “Biden has been the most progressive president since Lyndon Johnson and all Bernie Sanders has done is turn a generation of voters against the party.”

                  How do you talk to people who think like that?

                  1. Acacia

                    This is my question, too.

                    Got a couple of useful answers here at NC, just the other day, but I guess I’m looking for something a little more pointed. Of course, irony is a great thing, as it can leave people guessing while you move on to another topic, but there are times when straight up mockery might be more in order.

                    And methinks this election is one of those times.

  8. Benny Profane

    Hunter may be in good company in history. Chuck Berry went to prison after being convicted with the Mann Act. Jack Johnson, too. They tried to get Charlie Chaplin, but, didn’t stick.

    1. lyman alpha blob

      While Dear Hunter justly deserves whatever he gets regarding his obvious lawbreaking, I don’t think the Republicans would be wise to bring up debauchery laws.

      Unless of course they really want to regale us with “wide stance'” stories again once it all inevitably comes back to bite them in their own debauched backsides.

        1. Mark Gisleson

          Late reply/sidebar rant but try asking people outside your normal circles about the Handmaid’s Tale, book or premium TV show. I’ll give you 10 points for everyone who knows enough about the show to grasp what red robes are about.

          For everyone who doesn’t know the book/tv show, I get one point. You will be amazed at how big my winning margin is. A few million viewers is a lot of TV but not that many votes in a general election, especially not when you already had those votes.

          There’ll be a study someday showing that Hollywood killed itself by letting the Blob write their scripts. I’m never recovering (or going back to Netflix) after watching Minnie Driver preface a new series by explaining the quasi-religious importance of narrative and story telling without revealing that the truth is they believe our tiny brains can’t handle the truth and need to have it pre-chewed for us.

          The elites drink their own koolaid. I’m sure that if you get to a level where no television is watched, private conversations sound much more intelligible and less meme-driven. And my bet is that in that room, having a twelve-year-old g’friend is not that uncommon.

          Sorry, I’m never getting over the fact that the new strategists (Not nippersdad) think you can use elitist memes to impact votes and have convinced more folks of that than actually “get” the memes. What this does do, however, is to fertilize young minds for the kernels of wisdom to come. I don’t think most of this horseßhit impacts votes. I think it’s all about the long game and parts of the Blob love to play with young…minds.

          /end rant

  9. mrsyk

    That Allan McDonald is someone to miss. I did not know this story and am wondering why.

  10. griffen

    COVID-19 data point, an older coworker reported a positive test for this affliction, circa this past Monday morning. Apparently a weekend of fun and mirth was the likely explanation, and I highly doubt this person is careless or callous. No air travel involved, but a concert event Sat night. It’s a singular instance so just adding to the ongoing discussion.

    So…it bears to repeat that the Pandemic was announced to be over by Joe Biden as of last year…amirite?

  11. XXYY

    Trump’s felony conviction fuels a donation surge that narrows Biden’s advantage.

    Back in the good old days, having a lot of money was clearly and obviously helpful to a political campaign, since it allowed you to buy a lot of advertising for your candidate, which would reach most of the population.

    I’m wondering now whether and if that’s still true since the space for paid advertisements has gotten very weird. Television ads are obviously watched only by the senior demographic who still watch television (with the exception of live sports, which is probably its own category) . The same is true for magazine and newspaper ads. “Online” ads can mean a lot of different things, but in general I think the consensus among PR people is increasingly that they don’t provide much value for the money to the advertiser in terms of click-throughs.

    So I’m wondering what this all means for political campaigns. Does money still translate into a clear advantage in political races? Or have other factors started to dominate? I’d very much like to hear from anyone who has recent real world experience.

    1. Amfortas the Hippie

      likely flows through various shells and investment vehicles…increasingly rarefied and esoteric…and then disappears into some account in a bank in gurnsey.
      likely some of that gets invested…(some gets frittered away, of course…hookers and blow, etcz)…mostly, again, in playing the great game.
      some also likely ends up in doomsteadery of various forms.
      getting preps in for the coming warlordism=> neofeudalism that likely comes next for those of us outside the federal cities, connected by corridors….
      i see this, out here…but its more of an interpretation of data, at this point.
      a vibe among the newest rich folks.
      when i randomly encounter them in the feedstore, all my body hair stands up and prickles before i even ask who they are,lol.

  12. Socal Rhino

    I think Trump’s proposal to eliminate taxes on tips had more impact on the election than anything Biden has come up with. Dems seem psychologically unable to empathize with workers.

    Reading accounts from India shocked me by how closely they resembled Robinson’s “Ministry of the future.” Things like AC being overwhelmed and tap water coming out hot.

    1. Screwball

      I think Trump’s proposal to eliminate taxes on tips had more impact on the election than anything Biden has come up with.

      I agree, and I think that is a good idea. Might be full of it, but most people who get tips are the day to day workers who need it most IMO. I’m guessing this is also gamed by the same people anyway, but when doing their taxes they probably get most of it back anyway. If nothing else it simplifies things.

      I’m not an accountant of tax expert, but it makes sense. I could very well be wrong, but I like it.

  13. JBird4049

    >>>“Republican arrested after ‘chasing an adult dancer on a road while waving a gun at 2:45am’… and his campaign releases bizarre statement”

    Really, whenever I hear goofiness like this, I am reminded of the quote “The only way I can lose is if I’m caught in bed with either a dead girl or a live boy,” which I believe Huey Long said, but the interwebs only mentions Edwin Edwards.

    1. The Rev Kev

      American conservatives seem to be a lot like British conservatives – they can’t keep their pants on.

  14. albrt

    “Do the two phases match up with your memories, readers?”

    Yes, but with an additional stipulation – it was 100% obvious even then that every part of the Biden administration was actively and knowingly lying in order to achieve this result. Lying about airborne transmission, lying about severity, lying about immunity, lying about what the vaccine would do, lying about absolutely every relevant fact 100% of the time, until they got over the hump and everybody had accepted that Covid was just a fact of life. Then they could start letting some of the bad stuff slowly leak out.

    It’s kind of sad that Rochelle Walensky was the only member of the administration capable of crying about having lost her soul and become evil.

    1. Jason Boxman

      What makes you think someone like Walensky wasn’t always evil, even if just in a causal, dismissive of harms way?

      1. albrt

        Fair point, but I think she (and many others) went several steps further than they had gone before.

    2. aletheia33

      your question lambert reminds me–i’d already kinda forgotten–of that moment.
      when it seemed almost overnight the whole media shifted to past tense for the covid pandemic.
      and almost overnight everyone i conversed with seemed to have decided to go on with their lives as if it was over;
      and simply stopped mentioning it even in passing, unless they’d just got over an infection and it was nasty.
      if not nasty, not mentioned. (my assumption.)
      eventually i gave up on mentioning it (COVID itself that is, not myself getting infected, which has not occurred) to anyone myself, because the universal reaction when i did mention it had become a new kind of passive not-hearing.
      and the percentage of people masking in the grocery stores i go to, again over a very short period, dropped dramatically–from, let me say, somewhat significant to nearly nil.
      COVID became a nontopic.
      this weird situation continues.

      noting: my medical providers have all agreed to mask in my presence and continue to do so.
      thanks to the dedicated reporting here at NC, i continue to use the same precautions i have since 2020.
      thanks to everyone here at NC, i know i’m not alone, and am merely being sensible.

    1. Amfortas the Hippie

      i find that, today, i am laughing a lot more than usual at both Lambert’s commentaries, as well as at all y’all,lol.
      out loud.
      not a cat or goose to be found.
      so, well done, all!

  15. Amfortas the Hippie

    re: virtual democratic lockin in of biden/harris.

    for some meaning of “democratic”.
    who will be invited to participate….i mean, one assumes its by invitation only…since we wouldnt be real democrats if we just opened it up to everybody….
    and hows the software for it running?
    glitch tested?
    or will “random”(but always lefty) people be suddenly excluded by fiat by an ai?
    how many interested parties(small p) will even be aware of this event.
    i suppose its only for 2.6784 hours on a tuesday night, with cumbersome 4 factor id authentication, and a requirement regarding the handing over of data and money.

    those are the democrats i know, at least,lol.
    free beer at the wilderness bar says its a fiasco.

    1. Hepativore

      I am starting to wonder if the Democrats are laying the groundwork from 2024 and onward to never have “primaries” again, even if they do not have an incumbent president. They have enacted so many strategies to shield their internally-chosen candidate from criticism and outright ignored public opinion from 2016-2024 in terms of their favored candidate, that this “virtual” primary that the Democratic Party is talking about seems like merely the latest symptom of what lies ahead from here on out.

      The Democratic Party said that there will be “no primary” in 2024, but I imagine that they will also say that there will be no primaries anymore, period, in 2028 and onward. They might actually go through the motions of having a “primary” but refuse to recognize any other candidates on the ballot except the one that they already pre-chose. You need not vote in the primary races in this case as the party establishment does not care about what its districts think, nor is it necessarily troubled by the prospect of losing elections. All that really seems to matter to the Democratic Party is fundraising, not necessarily winning the elections themselves.

      The Democratic Party acts more like a national yacht club for the modern equivalent of coastal WASPs (Not necessarily white, Anglo-Saxon, or Protestant anymore, but the classic anti-populist mentality is the same) rather than being an actual viable political party, and it will gladly go down with the ship of neoliberalism rather than acquiesce to the populist left in any way, shape, or form.

    1. ambrit

      Only if you make under $100,000 USD a year. So, Hunter should skate on the charges.
      File this under Classless War.
      A friend of the family back in the ‘Go Go Years’ was deported from the Bahamas for Moral Turpitude. He had an underage girlfriend. He was earning under the equivalent of the $100,000 USD at the time, so, the Global Class Law Adjustment did not affect his status or outcome.
      Maybe Hunter could become a Remittance Man. I hear that Buenos Aires is a nice place to ‘retire’ to.

      1. Amfortas the Hippie

        Moral Terpitude is still a clause in the standard texas teacher’s contract.
        if somebody provides photos of you at a swinger’s club….or in a state of undress and delicto with not-spouse…and these days, evidence of an account on fetlife…and yer gone.
        pension gone, too.
        such slutshaming is always biased towards women.
        all the male coaches here who have been caught somehow screwing around with students have always landed on their feet elsewhere.
        same with the one instance of bankers daughter teacher screwing seniors…just went away.
        when yer the right people, all is forgiven, and everyone forgets.

        1. John

          Presidential ticket: Moral Terpitude and Cthulhu in any order you prefer. Might have legs.

          1. Alex Cox

            Last election Cthulhu’s campaign motto was “No Lives Matter.”
            This time it’s “Why Choose the Lesser Evil?”

            Cthulhu runs a great campaign.

  16. Amfortas the Hippie

    and, pretty much every pest control guy has a bee-list of local bee people to come get problematic bees.
    even way out here in backwards land, where its always 1953, with smartfones.

    1. ambrit

      They could air mail them over here. We see very few honey bees in town now. They used to be swarms of them in spring and summer. No longer.
      PS. We have beaucoup azaleas here. Those bees should feel right at home.

      1. JBird4049

        In the San Francisco Bay Area, we used to have a lot more insects, period. And frogs and birds as well. Mind you, I am talking about the ‘burbs where there are coyotes and with bonus mountain lions in the larger hills, not in the cities themselves. But the hoofed rats called deer are always around especially during a drought.

        The Bay Area still has some fairly wild areas especially West Marin. That the whole area is getting less wild, albeit just using my myself as a witness, even though it hasn’t gained much more people spreading out is worrisome. Granted, I don’t hear too good, but I used to hear more wildlife especially birds.

        1. Amfortas the Hippie

          partly due to tinnitus, i didnt notice the absence of birds until a good year into the 6 year grasshopper plague.
          and if i didnt notice it…being out there every day…
          so i built a bunch of birdhouses, hung them in trees even on the surrounding places.
          and put out extra scratchgrain for years…

      2. Cassandra

        Late to the discussion, but if you want to attract honeybees, plant oregano and wild catnip and let them flower and self-seed. You will get a lot of pollinators, and if any honeybees remain in your area, they will come.

    2. B24S

      Stuck in ’53, huh? So, if I were to drop in on you, would I only be a month old? I suppose I’d have to bring my own bottle. Talk about fresh starts.

      1. Amfortas the Hippie

        second in a week or so.
        awwright.
        ill be the place NC meets in person.
        i have the food, at least,lol.
        byo beer, tho.
        lambert, you have my number.
        use the ancient “Phone” function, after around ten pm, if it feels like i been drinking.
        early mornins are better, of course.

  17. debug

    More info about wastewaterscan org (wws)

    The differences between wws and the CDC wastewater site are that wws has fewer sites available, and the coverage is not as comprehensive as CDC for Covid, but wws tracks many more virus types in one map/dashboard.

    To use wwscan effectively go to the dashboard and skip the main page (in an earlier comment I assumed -yes, I know, my fault- that folks would just go to the dashboard first to do some serious investigation of the data available.)

    If you are interested only in Covid, I would use the CDC wastewater site. If you want to see RSV, Flu A, Flu B, metapneumovirus, rotavirus, norovirus, Hep A, etc., all in one interface use wws. But you may have to do what I do – even with the CDC Covid map – and choose a few locations surrounding your specific area since not every city or community actually provides wastewater data to CDC and/or wwscan. If you have data available for your specific town/city, consider yourself lucky. If not, start a community action to get it done. More data is better.

    And, apparently, someone at wws reads NC — I complained in my prior comment that it was hard to get back to the national view once you went into specific locations and they now have a chooser bar hovering at the top of the map allowing you to choose the nationwide views and regional views!
    I’m using Firefox on linux, so I hope wws works as well in other browsers as it does in mine.

    Again, skip the main page and go straight to the dashboard, it’s a much better experience. The direct link to the dashboard is “data(dot)wastewaterscan(dot)org”

  18. Tom Stone

    I had a CT Scan this morning, saw @ 2 dozen people in the waiting room and corridors, 2 masked including myself.
    How soon will the wheels come off completely?
    In other news, it’s still 2 Biden/Harris bumperstickers and 1 RFK, no lawn signs.
    I don’t expect to see any Trump Bumperstickers because having one here would guarantee your car would be vandalized.

    1. antidlc

      I live in what used to be a pretty red county but is turning purple.

      I have seen two signs:
      1) One for Trump
      1)One that went up weeks ago: “For the love of God, anyone but Trump”.

      1. ambrit

        I think I’ll use a purple background for my Cthulhu For President yard sign this year.
        It projects a sense of both bipartisanship and Royal Authority.
        Americans want a Leader to follow? Cthulhu will give them one. One that leads them straight to the Gates of H—. (Oh, wait. Both the Democrat and Republican Parties are promising that this cycle.)

        1. mrsyk

          No signs out around here yet. I’m thinking it’s early. Excitement will get manufactured, it’s one thing we’re good at.

        2. Screwball

          I saw a sign on the net that i would love for my yard;

          Any functional adult – 2024

          1. Amfortas the Hippie

            dont fuck it up worse:2024
            new new deal:2024—ideal,lol…
            dont fuck the goat:2024

            etc

            i wrote “thought criminal” in blue on the headache rack behind the cab of my ancient truck.

    2. nippersdad

      In this very red District we just had the primaries a few days ago. Brian Jack (“endorsed by Trump!”) signs line the roads still, and he beat out popular long time Republican state rep Mike Dugan by 64 to thirty six percent. No one can remember who the Democratic oppo was, and there are zero Biden/Harris bumper stickers to be seen. Red lawn signs and bumper stickers are everywhere. These people are going to crawl over broken glass to get to the polls, and this is in a university town.

      Wild thing: Jack advertised himself to be a sixth generation Georgian, but has no house here as he lives in Washington and was a Trump appointee. It is rare to actually be a sixth generation Georgian (I’d be interested in seeing his family tree) and no one had ever heard about this guy before he ran, so carpet baggers are back on the menu. All thanks to Trump and the deeply held desire to stick it to the liberals.

      They just really don’t care what these people say, just that it is said in the approved manner.

      1. ambrit

        Six generations of Georgians? If so, I can practically guarantee a “Nubian in the fuel supply” for that family tree.
        Next door in Louisiana, such “mixed” lineages are quite common. Very little to no stigma attached any more. If you want to see the future of North American race relations, come Down South. Crooked politicos and police are an equal opportunity proposition now. The catchall charge for bogus traffic stops used to be, “driving while Black.” Today, our Minions of State Security are a more enlightened lot, that all purpose charge now is, “driving while Poor.”

      2. rowlf

        We’re in the same district! I’m south of Clayton county and deer, loose cattle and horses can be a problem on roads in my area.

        The whole “endorsed by Trump!” didn’t seem to impress anyone.

        1. nippersdad

          “The whole “endorsed by Trump!” didn’t seem to impress anyone.”

          Really? Carroll County, here. A few of us were talking about him the other day, prior to the primary, and no one knew who he was or where he came from. It was like a Republican Venus showing up in a clamshell; one day he wasn’t there and the next he had about ten million yard signs everywhere.

          Seemed like Dugan was going to be a shoe-in.

    1. The Rev Kev

      Nigel Farage has really thrown the cat among the pigeons with that statement. They’ll go ballistic – giving Farage a lot of good free publicity.

    2. rowlf

      That’s a good grenade to toss and should have many secondary explosions as the MSM ties themselves in knots opposing reality.

      Unless they airbrush him out of the news.

  19. B24S

    That Savage joke gave me a real charge, but now I’m wired. I think I need to go unplug…

  20. midtownwageslave

    My COVID Data points:

    1) Coworker tested positive for COVID last week and just returned to office today. 3rd time they have caught it. Don’t know where they got it.

    2) These last 2-3 weeks there has been a cough going around on my trains. In fact, very noticeable as it’s more intense and persistent than the typical (probably) long COVID or cold related coughs. One instance I witnessed could have been described as an uncontrollable coughing fit.

    People watching was more of a passtime until the pandemic started. Now I have to do it constantly for my personal risk assessment!

  21. Jason Boxman

    They must remember the Trump tax cuts differently than I do. He doubled the standard deduction, and dropped the bracket rates. It was a material win for me at the time, real benefits, imagine that? All I got from Obama’s 8 years was Obama and liberal Democrats nuking subsidized graduate student loans, after preaching about the importance of getting moar education. That cost me easily $4k. These guys can bite me. And the genius idea to destroy used cars, the cash for clunkers scam, notably raised the costs of used cars.

    1. CA

      “And the genius idea to destroy used cars, the cash for clunkers scam, notably raised the costs of used cars.”

      Importantly so.

      1. Jason Boxman

        So liberal Democrats get industrial policy when it suits them. See again now, with tariffs on Chinese EVs when the clean energy transition or whatever is of paramount importance or whatever. LoL. Which is? We can only save the planet of capitalism can continue!

  22. Turkey Vulture

    Danielle Beckman is the most imbecilic neurologist posing as a virologist I have ever seen. Cows aren’t spreading it to other cows.

    1. kareninca

      How do we know that cows aren’t spreading it to other cows? Could you provide a link for that?

      So how are cows catching it? Are you are saying that each cow is catching it from a bird? Or each cow is catching it from a mouse? Or each cow is catching it from a cat?? Or each cow is catching it from a human? Individually?

      I thought the USDA was not providing the genetic data to make a determination possible.

  23. nippersdad

    It looks like William F. Buckley didn’t manage to get to the part of Flusser’s book on color coordination. Colors that are close but don’t quite match are a definite no no. Color coordination rules do not change just because of the cut of one’s jib, er, clothing.

    That is all in a different chapter.

    1. ambrit

      That must have been on one of those sailings where they swanned out past the twelve mile limit and partook of the “Evil Weed.”

      1. nippersdad

        Seriously, the man must have been stoned. Even whales know better than that.

        Harrumph!

        1. ambrit

          True that. Even Orcas know that you need a visible contrast to properly set the tone of an ensemble. “There is no light without dark, no dark without light.”
          And that collar! Is he taking holy orders?

  24. Jason Boxman

    So Alex Chriss is the scrumbag that ran Quickbooks for all those years, moving to a subscription service that offered no real value, only extracted it, every year. May he burn in the deepest level of hell forever. It sounds like online payments in competitive enough, he can’t burn merchants like that, yet. Hopefully never. Instead they’re having to underprice, aggressively. The whole payments network should be replaced, everyone should have a FedBank account, with transacting at zero cost. There’s no reason, other than capitalist greed, to allow private actors to take even a penny of economic rent for transacting in America’s sovereign currency. It’s degenerate.

  25. Acacia

    So, “The Money Power” is supposedly “flocking to Trump,” because, among other things:

    Biden vs. crypto

    What, like the SEC under Biden approving ETFs for Bitcoin and just this week green-lighting Ethereum ETFs, so that Blackrock et alia have even moar ways to go after your parents’ 401k ?

    Speaking of Biden, my social media timeline has been filling up with tweets showing pictures of putative Biden doppelgängers, to be used during the debate, and already being test-driven.

    This is tin-foil hat stuff — but if true, it would sure solve a lot of problems for the Democrat division of the cartel.

  26. griffen

    Well this is a proto typical headline for America the exceptional country and shining city on a hill…mass shooting reports from out of Arkansas today. South of Little Rock.

    South of Little Rock. I only can speak to the geography of Arkansas in terms of the interstate traveling or driving to Dallas circa 2006 and driving from circa 2015…

  27. Sutter Cane

    The VA (veterans admin) does two nasal swabs on everyone who goes to their ER. They test for covid and two flu strains. There’s also have a “community” level/rating on the website so you can know the local levels at that location.

    I’ve searched the VA website for this community covid rating and I can’t find anything of the sort. Is it only for certain locations? Can anyone help me?

    1. Lambert Strether Post author

      > I’ve searched the VA website for this community covid rating and I can’t find anything of the sort. Is it only for certain locations? Can anyone help me?

      Readers? (I’m not a veteran; perhaps one has to log in?)

  28. nippersdad

    Kind of off topic, but still potentially apocalyptic, are there any theories out there as to why so many volcanoes are going off right now? Mt. St. Helens and Yellowstone having earthquakes, Iceland with lava overtopping their barrier walls and the super caldera that is about to blow in Naples, Italy.

    This sort of thing must be going on all the time without comment, but I am now seeing it on every news feed I watch. More photons heating things up with the solar maximum or is the media just trying to come up with something else to talk about?

      1. nippersdad

        Thank you for the link; that was very interesting.

        The whole building of Naples around a caldera has always seemed odd to me. It is not like they do not have local examples of how the real estate market can suddenly go bad around there. They are practically sitting on top of Pompeii and Herculaneum! But I have heard that it is a beautiful city, and I hope they don’t have any problems.

    1. Lambert Strether Post author

      > are there any theories out there as to why so many volcanoes are going off right now

      Mother Nature taking care of the problem?

      (Actually, I’m not sure about this. Volcanism is stable in the Rapture Index. Are there more eruptions, or more stories about eruptions?)

  29. Carolinian

    Since art is now a topic here this is interesting

    https://europeanconservative.com/articles/essay/art-appreciation-is-not-learned/

    my immediate thinking, with respect to such pieces as “Three Musicians” and “Les Demoiselles d’Avignon,” was akin to my thinking today about strip malls, modern apartment complexes, and Hollywood mansions: they are pretentious, lifeless, and ugly. They are products of minds that are not trying to reveal beauty, but to be different. And no one taught me that. Of course, one is supposed to admire Picasso’s Cubist creations. But I had already decided that art was not a game invented in order to discern who can figure out someone’s genius—and then be graded on this by some art expert. That perspective, I irrevocably decided, is dishonest and irrelevant to what art actually is. For, if art is not about truth and beauty, then it is not art.

    Of course what one considers beautiful is learned (if not in art class) as well as innate. We are all products of our environment and early life.

    But surely those who claim that beauty itself doesn’t matter–“the painted word”–are selling a con. We have language to express ideas. Art is about feeling and emotion–beauty.

    IMHO agreeing with the above. .

    1. wol

      Thank you. Zen teachers caution against relying on the intellect, i.e. ‘you can’t get there from here’. D H Lawrence said he wanted to get to people where they didn’t know they’d been gotten. Some people cry when viewing a Mark Rothko; I’ve been moved. Ms wol cried at the Hilma af Klint exhibition at the Guggenheim Museum and she wasn’t the only one.

  30. tegnost

    …. Other factors Fox News suggests have contributed to Biden’s improvement in the polls are more voters considering the U.S. economy to be in “excellent or good” shape, and the president recently announcing tougher immigration policies.”

    The blue party is to the right of reagans red party so no surprise that excellence metric.
    All those I know who love the biden blues are very to extremely well off and life is fabulous for them.
    No working class person IMO should pull the lever for a dem.
    They sold us down the river.

  31. Mark Gisleson

    Lambert: “Any debater knows that speaking last is an enormous advantage. I think the Biden campaign really stumbled, here. The closing statement is only two minutes, so Trump can’t ramble, but it’s possible to do a lot of damage in two minutes, and presumbly Trump’s team will prep well for what could be the climax of his political career (if he takes Biden down).”

    My guess is that the Democrats still think they get the last word because they control so much of the news media but I don’t think they understand just how quickly most people who actually bother to watch will turn their “TV” off after the debate. I believe we’re in a post-spin era and that spin now only serves to laminate the bubble with iridescent swirls that further distract inhabitants from the chaos that exists outside their world.

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