Recent Items

2:00PM Water Cooler 6/28/2024: Biden v. Trump Post-Match Analysis and Commentary

Posted on by

By Lambert Strether of Corrente

Readers, today’s Water Cooler is a post, but I included the bird song and the plant, because I knew you’d ding me if I didn’t! –lambert

Bird Song of the Day

Eastern Meadowlark, Brazoria NWR–Auto Tour Loop and Discovery Center, Brazoria, Texas, United States.
.

* * *

The chaos in the Democrats party is perhaps best understood as a succession crisis, not merely personally, but generationally (Biden’s replacement, if any, is unlikely to be 81, and even less likely to be a member of the Senate class of 1973).

Moreover, it’s a crisis that needs to be solved by deadline: The physical Chicago convention is August 19-22, but the Democrat National Committee (DNC) has decided to hold a virtual nomination on Zoom, because Republican Ohio required an August 7 filing date to get the Democrat nominee on their ballot. (Ohio has since moved the filing date to September 1, but Democrats don’t trust them.) The date of the Zoom nomination is, however, as yet unrevealed. Let’s say the date is August 6. This is June 28, making the deadline 39 days away. If the date turns out to be August 19 after all, the crisis must be resolved in 52 days. That’s not a lot of time.

Whether the Democrat succession crisis is of historical significance is as yet unknown (asked the same question of the French Revolution, Chou En-Lai is said to have said “It’s too early to say”). Certainly it’s significant in the history of the party, though it’s hard to think of a precedent: When Democrats split in 1860, it was over an important principle — slavery — and not over the party’s aging star and weak bench. Certainly the debate is significant, though whether on the order of Bush v. Gore 2000 (which Gore was thought to have won for a news cycle or so, until the press decided the debate was really about Gore sighing obnoxiously) or Kennedy v. Nixon 1960 (a poor analogy with no Camelot in the offing) is also unknown.

I spent a few hours after the debate trawling the Twitter, and a few hours after that reading up on the bigfootery and hot-take-ish-ness, and in what follows I’m going to empty out my haul into the following buckets, which correspond roughly to opinion-havers in the Democrat Party structure (ignoring the spooks, press assets, and NGOs):

1) Tragedians

2) The Wizard of Kalorama™

3) Party Grandees

4) Bedwetters

5) Non-Bedwetters

6) Party Members and Activists

7) Outsiders

8) Fanciful Scenarists

My object is not to predict the future — though I do recall asserting that “volatility” was to be this year’s theme — but to try to reduce the mass of material to some sort of order. (Readers will observe that there’s one further category I’ve left out: Funders. That’s because squillionaires and even local gentry are few in number, have ideological crotchets, must be serviced, and cover their tracks, which is why Ferguson and his associates need to take time to figure out — in granular and not class terms — who the string-pullers really are (I say “string-pullers” rather than “puppet masters” because the members of every bucket have their own relative autonomy)).

I’m going to structure the buckets rather like the club sandwich I had for lunch: The bacon, lettuce, and so forth will be the Tweets I collected; the slices of bread will be links to the opinion-havers. Because this is Water Cooler, the sandwich will be large at first, and assume Dagwoodian proportions once orts and scraps are added.

But before I start filling up buckets, let me have some fun and do a Wordle for each canidate. I’m using the CNN transcript.

Biden:

Trump:

Make of them what you will. (These are simple frequency-based Wordles. I’m frankly surprised “horrible” doesn’t assume greater salience in Trump’s Wordle; the way he pronounced it really sticks in the mind. Notice, however, that “country” is central to Trump’s appeal, but not Biden’s.)

Tragedians

But still evoking pity and terror:

Time to take the car keys away (1):

Trump, amazingly, stays controlled, gives a slight shrug, then does what he has to do.

Time to take the car keys away (2):

Time to take the car keys away (3):

Time to take the car keys away (4):

The Democrats have form on elder abuse:

Carefully uncommitted:

The after-party, poor Jill (1):

Poor Jill (2):

The Wizard of Kalorama™

UPDATE The Wizard™ speaks:

The framing is deceptive. The issue isn’t one bad debate. The issue is a failing debater.

Obama’s speechwriter (coined “The Blob”) takes a view:

From Obama’s campaign manager:

But from Obama’s former chief strategist–

“Axelrod: Biden Is The Nominee Of The Democratic Party, “This Isn’t The 60s” [RealClearPolitics]. “[AXELROD:] The point is now he is the nominee of the Democratic Party. This isn’t the 60s, okay. Voters choose the nominee. He is the nominee only he can decide whether he’s going to continue, and as you point out, this is a guy with a lot of pride who believes in himself. The idea that he’s going to say, ‘You know, I had a bad debate, I think I’m going to walk away from this.’ I find it hard to believe.”

“A halting Biden tries to confront Trump at debate but sparks Democratic anxiety about his candidacy” [Associated Press]. “‘I think the panic had set in,’ said David Axelrod, a longtime advisor to former President Barack Obama on CNN, immediately after the debate about Biden’s performance. ‘And I think you’re going to hear discussions that, I don’t know will lead to anything, but there are going to be discussions about whether he should continue.'”

Party Grandees

“A Fumbling Performance, and a Panicking Party” [Peter Baker, New York Times]. “Democrats on Thursday night were imagining scenarios that would require party elders like Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, former Speaker Nancy Pelosi of California and Representative James E. Clyburn of South Carolina to intervene with the president, although there was no indication that any of them would agree to do so.” • See this lightly sourced story from the Daily Mail on June 17, which presents a similar scenario: “‘The only people who could force him out would be Barack Obama, Bill Clinton, Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer,’ one Democratic strategist told DailyMail.com. ‘It would have to be the four of them collectively.'” Baker, apparently, substituted Clyburn for Obama.

“Playbook: Democrats wake up to a nightmare” [Politico]. “The key names we kept hearing last night were listed in three concentric rings of influence around the president, starting with (1) his family, particularly wife JILL and sister VALERIE BIDEN, (2) his closest advisers (TED KAUFMAN, TOM DONILON, RON KLAIN, STEVE RICCHETTI and ANITA DUNN), and then (3) the bold-faced electeds and former electeds whose opinions he couldn’t ignore (Bill and HILLARY CLINTON, Obama, Pelosi, Schumer, Clyburn, Delaware Sen. CHRIS COONS).” • Regarding ring (1), and why on earth haven’t Jill and Hunter taken Joe aside and said “Honey, let’s spend our last months together”? That family is not the ideal it is made out to be (as the dogs as vicious as their master show).

“In The Room Where It Happens” [Atrios, Eschaton]. “Most of us don’t get to be there, but there are always people with access to lawmakers and the administration who are constantly putting pressure on them. The people trying to make noise on the outside – furious blog posts, angry tweets, public protest – are the ones who don’t ever get that access. Some of that pressure comes from big donors, some from their weirdo rich friends in the group chat, some from the numerous lobbying groups who have armies of people who are paid to lie for their cause (and who also have all your favorite journalists in their contact lists). And, of course, those who dangle lifetime friends and family jobs. It’s the ‘quiet’ pressure people should be more worried about. It is constant and relentless and much more effective than anything outsiders can do.” • So….

Bedwetters

That escalated quickly:

“Very aggressive panic”:

“Multiple lists” (flex nets):

“Zero constituency”?

Wasserman is a sober and independent observer:

“McCaskill says Biden stumbles raise question of Harris or Newsom at top of Democratic ticket” [The Hill]. McCaskill: “‘[Harris and Newsom] are signaling to a whole lot of Americans who are paying attention, ‘How come they are not at the top of the ticket?” McCaskill said in an interview with Rachel Maddow on MSNBC after the debate. ‘How come the Democratic party does not have them at the top of the ticket, instead of using them to shore up some pretty glaring weaknesses in our president?'” • First Democrat regular I’ve seen to openly throw Harris under the bus (by proposing Newsom as an alternative).

Non-Bedwetters

“Biden speaks at Georgia Waffle House following debate performance: ‘I think we did well'” [FOX]. “‘I think we did well,’ Biden told reporters at an Atlanta area Waffle House when asked how he performed. When asked if he had any concerns about his performance, the president said, ‘No it’s hard to debate a liar, New York Times pointed how he lied 26 times. Big lies.’ Biden was then asked if he was suffering from a cold, which the campaign revealed following the debate performance where many expressed concerns about the sound of Biden’s voice. ‘I am sick,’ Biden said.” • But not with a cold?

Saying what she has to say:

Newsom selling hard (1):

Newsom selling hard (2):

Hillary Clinton’s press secretary coping:

(She could be right, of course.)

Former Biden Press Secretary coping:

Fetterman has a point, kind of:

Fetterman had a bad debate post-stroke and still won. But stroke was something Fetterman could recover from, and did. Whatever is happening to Biden doesn’t look like a reversible process.

Admirably committed to the bit, but still cope:

Elias is the Democrat go-to on election law, and a conduit for Steele Dossier money (and to be fair, an expert on election law is needed; perhaps not the fatally compromised Elias, though.)

More cope, decoped:

“Is There a Good Reason Not to Panic? Well, No, Not Really” [The New Republic]. “The final option, therefore, is to throw the thing open and try to get the nomination to one of the governors, or someone else. This has always had a lot of theoretical appeal, because several of these people look like they’d be good candidates But the two perceived problems with this scenario are these. First, how much bad blood would start boiling within the party if Harris were pushed aside? The assumed answer has always been: a lot. If Biden were to step aside, pollsters would start asking questions about Harris, and if those polls showed that Black women will basically bolt, going around Harris could be a nonstarter. And second, is there really any proof that Gretchen Whitmer or Gavin Newsom or Josh Shapiro or Jay Pritzker or anyone else would be a better candidate? Governors sometimes just don’t have it when it comes to running for president. Look at Ron DeSantis. Those are real problems. But in this break-glass moment, they start to look like smaller problems than staying with Biden or just handing it to Harris. We’ll see what the post-debate polls say. They’ll start coming out early to mid-next week. My guess is that Biden will lose four points on average, maybe five. It might be a little less. But the coverage of this fiasco over the next two days will only amplify how bad it was.”l

“Joe Biden’s debate gamble backfires” [Mark Penn, FOX]. “About the best thing the campaign can hope for is that a well-staged convention can undo this damage and that they can get their candidate another look. There will be chatter about a new nominee but, as David Axelrod observed, the delegates have been chosen and the votes cast in a democratic process and the only person who can change that is Joe Biden himself. The party will continue to close ranks behind Biden. ”

Party Members and Activists

Sirota’s friend:

Replacing the votes of those who voted for Biden, too:

“Our democracy”….

UPDATE Floor fights are exciting, and we haven’t had one in a long time:

This seems unlikely to me; for one thing, the delegates are pledged to Biden on the first ballot. That said, the Democratic National Convention (not Committee) has plenary powers; the rules can be whatever the Convention decides they are. But institionally and cultural, the Democrat Party is optimized for authoritarian followers. Therefore, “take things into our own hands” implies that there would need to be a declared alernative to Biden for a floor fight in that candidates favor to occur. So we’re back to the same problem: Who would that candidate be? Would the absurdly ingratiating Newsom permit his name go forward?

Outsiders

Thanks, Obama!

Silicon Valley, but not a tech bro, scam artist, or libertarian (sorry for the redundancy):

Fanciful Scenarists

I believe Biden could also release his delegates:

Of the Trillbillies:

Memory hole? What memory hole?

Twenty Fifth Amendment:

Too many moving parts in Twenty Fifth Amendment, I think.

A faithless elector:

To Tim Mellon, $10M is a gratuity!

“It was a set-up” (1):

As I’ve said before, I think all parties thought an early debate would bring clarity.

“It was a set-up (2):

* * *

And about Biden’s hoarseness:

What nobody’s saying:

Conclusion

If the Democrats are to replace Biden, they have 52 days at the outside to choose his successor, introduce them to the public, and turn the tanker of the campaign (besides replacing all of Biden’s staff). That’s a heavy lift.

So who might Biden’s successor be? We have two virtually useless data points as of this writing. First, prediction markets:

Quite the price swing. Second, this poll at Drudge:

Who the heck is “Other”? Oprah? Arnold? Michelle? Taylor Swift?

Then of course there are larger crises that the Biden Administration has on its plate:

(Note that one may regard the Israel Lobby as a proxy for the military-industrial complex while still accepting Mearsheimer’s bottom line.) Busy, busy, busy!

APPENDIX

The focus groups begin to speak:

“Undecided voter focus group leans toward Trump after debate” [Axios]. “All undecided voters in a U.S. swing states focus group hosted by pollster Frank Luntz said President Biden should be replaced as the Democratic nominee after watching his first presidential debate against former President Trump. Why it matters: The 2024 presidential election will be decided by roughly 6% of voters in key swing states. Luntz, who has conducted presidential focus groups since 1996, said he never witnessed one reach a ‘conclusion this overwhelming.’ Of 14 voters from Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, Nevada and North Carolina, 12 said the debate made them lean toward electing Trump, one toward Biden and one remained undecided. Nine of the participants said they voted for Biden in 2020. Most voters expressed concern over Biden’s mental state and his ability to lead, following some rambling answers from the president.”

* * *

Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From EM:

EM write: “How we doing? I can’t wait to inject this into my arm.” You and me both.

* * *

Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not covered by the annual NC fundraiser. So if you see a link you especially like, or an item you wouldn’t see anywhere else, please do not hesitate to express your appreciation in tangible form. Remember, a tip jar is for tipping! Regular positive feedback both makes me feel good and lets me know I’m on the right track with coverage. When I get no donations for three or four days I get worried. More tangibly, a constant trickle of donations helps me with expenses, and I factor in that trickle when setting fundraising goals:

Here is the screen that will appear, which I have helpfully annotated:

If you hate PayPal, you can email me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I will give you directions on how to send a check. Thank you!

Print Friendly, PDF & Email
This entry was posted in Guest Post, Water Cooler on by .

About Lambert Strether

Readers, I have had a correspondent characterize my views as realistic cynical. Let me briefly explain them. I believe in universal programs that provide concrete material benefits, especially to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime example, but tuition-free college and a Post Office Bank also fall under this heading. So do a Jobs Guarantee and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can deliver on such programs, because the two are different flavors of neoliberalism (“Because markets”). I don’t much care about the “ism” that delivers the benefits, although whichever one does have to put common humanity first, as opposed to markets. Could be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don’t much care, as long as the benefits are delivered. To me, the key issue — and this is why Medicare for All is always first with me — is the tens of thousands of excess “deaths from despair,” as described by the Case-Deaton study, and other recent studies. That enormous body count makes Medicare for All, at the very least, a moral and strategic imperative. And that level of suffering and organic damage makes the concerns of identity politics — even the worthy fight to help the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton’s wars created — bright shiny objects by comparison. Hence my frustration with the news flow — currently in my view the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the other by out-of-power liberals and their allies in the State and in the press — a news flow that constantly forces me to focus on matters that I regard as of secondary importance to the excess deaths. What kind of political economy is it that halts or even reverses the increases in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I am also very hopeful that the continuing destruction of both party establishments will open the space for voices supporting programs similar to those I have listed; let’s call such voices “the left.” Volatility creates opportunity, especially if the Democrat establishment, which puts markets first and opposes all such programs, isn’t allowed to get back into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I love the tactical level, and secretly love even the horse race, since I’ve been blogging about it daily for fourteen years, but everything I write has this perspective at the back of it.

Subscribe to Post Comments
198 comments

    2. ChrisFromGA

      I confess to being a bit burned out, but applaud your awesome work in gathering all those sound bytes and quotes into one handy place.

      I’ll muster a quote from the Ramones, possibly to be woven into Biden’s upcoming speech announcing that he’s stepping down:

      I don’t know how I’m gonna tell ’em that I ain’t got no cerebellum!

      Teenage Lobotomy, The Ramones

      (after watching the debate, perhaps we all got one.)

      Reply ↓
      1. ambrit

        Yeah. Biden’s already been sedated.
        Ooooooh! Someone run clips of Biden “debating” with The Ramones “I Wanna Be Sedated” running as the sound track!

        Reply ↓
    3. ambrit

      I would say that it is a case of too little actual debate and too much ‘Cult of Personality.’
      This “debate” was managed and run like a Celebrity edition of The Gong Show.
      Someone please tell the League of Women Voters to grow a pair.
      The reactions to the debate have been much more informative than the staged event.

      Reply ↓
      2. steppenwolf fetchit

        What is the League of Women Voters supposed to do against a unified Big Media Big Party conspiracy against LoWV debates? They don’t have the brute force power to beat down BMBP.

        Maybe what they should grow is some lateral imagination and peripheral vision. They should figure out a way to have and hold debates on whatever Little Parallel Media (LPM) outlet or outlets they can find and start working on attracting candidates and audiences to those LPM platforms and outlets.

        Reply ↓
  2. Steve H.

    > If the Democrats are to replace Biden, they have 52 days at the outside to choose his successor, introduce them to the public, and turn the tanker of the campaign (besides replacing all of Biden’s staff). That’s a heavy lift.

    Lambert, your ability to land a liver shot is astounding. I can put on Shakespeare in the Park (nonprofit) in that time-frame, but when you lay it out like that… Lands with a thud.

    Reply ↓
    1. Steve H.

      > this is the worst production of king lear i’ve ever seen

      Noting, we took twelve weeks for our production. That’s 84 days. 52 is less than 84.

      Reply ↓
      1. Steve H.

        Further noting, the Lich Queen may have a rival for the feminine lust for power, and that the business of necromancers is to animate the corpsified.

        Reply ↓
    2. Lambert Strether Post author

      > Lambert, your ability to land a liver shot is astounding. I can put on Shakespeare in the Park (nonprofit) in that time-frame, but when you lay it out like that… Lands with a thud.

      “I just wanted to win this one for the fans” [lambert blushes modestly]

      Reply ↓
    4. Jams O'Donnell

      It shouldn’t take 52 days to select the obvious choice – Taylor Swift. If Ronald Reagan could do it . . . (although possibly she has a will of her own and is used to getting her own way, so . . . maybe not?)

      Reply ↓
  3. ambrit

    This is the Zen Water Cooler to go with the Zen election cycle.
    “Through innumerable kalpas of institutionalized corruption the Striver after enlightenment changes channels, vlogs, blogs, and platforms. Always, the Striver returns to the Mirror. The Mirror shows the truth, though few Strivers can recognize it. The Veil of Illusion obscures the truth and comforts the bereft. We are occult when we should be esoteric.”
    From “The Handy Guide to Disinformation Management.”
    University of Magonia Press.

    Reply ↓
  4. Tommy S.

    EXCELLENT. damn I love this site. For how dumb our elite ‘herders’ can be…here is Rebecca Solnit’s take on Facebook today, “Once again people are mistaking their feelings for facts. Last night made them feel bad; they’ve converted that into faux factual analysis that Biden/the Democrats/everything is doomed. And running around doing their best to make that bad feeling into reality. It’s like no one doing this has ever felt bad before, then found out that in a week or two you don’t feel as bad, because the incident that made you feel bad doesn’t loom as large.
    To be honest, I don’t give a damn that Biden had a cold and did a lousy job; as someone who has to get up on stages more than most of you, I know it’s hard and there are off nights. Being sparkly and charismatic onstage has nothing to do with the job of president. If you want to judge his performance as president look at his presidency (and most people actually have no idea of what’s been accomplished beyond a few very high-visibility things; the thousands of ways the administration has acted on, for example, climate are invisible partly because the shitty mainstream media don’t really cover it, and because most people are not really paying attention anyway, which is what gives entertainment bullshit like this debate the outsized weight it shouldn’t have).
    And getting him elected is not just his job; it’s the job of everyone who recognizes the choice at hand: the alternative is armageddon with a smirk, an end to democracy in America, a sabotage of our chance of doing anything about climate. Elections are made by widespread participation–as grassroots organizers, donors, and voters–not by one person. And your participation is not a gift to that one person; it’s your work to shape the world you live in, on behalf of all of us.” Yeah we are all so stupid we Can’t see that he has dementia, that he has massively ramped up LNG export , and massive drilling ….cuz he has actually done MORE good on climate change. but you’re stupid. My God.

    Reply ↓
    1. mrsyk

      I’m sorry you feel this way. The realities of our surroundings are going to come as a bit of shock when you start seeing them.
      You should add some links if you want to strengthen your opinion. It’s customary here when evidence based claims are made, and I’d welcome some examples of things done regarding climate, because I really could use some good news.

      Reply ↓
      1. t

        (All but the last few lines were quoting, and not in a positive way, someone who considers themselves a thought leader.)

        Reply ↓
        1. ambrit

          Proper ‘political perception management consultants’ phrase it as; “Who you gonna believe, me or your lying eyes?”

          Reply ↓
    5. Kfish

      Once upon a time, Rebecca Solnit wrote a good book (“Paradise Built in Hell”). It’s sad that she used the fame from that to become … this.

      Reply ↓
      2. Jeff W

        What I think of whenever I hear about Rebecca Solnit is her 2012 article “The Rain on Our Parade – A Letter to My Dismal Allies,” in which she addresses her “leftist allies” as “O rancid sector of the far left” and says the following:

        Recently, I mentioned that California’s current attorney general, Kamala Harris, is anti-death penalty and also acting in good ways to defend people against foreclosure. A snarky Berkeley professor’s immediate response began, “Excuse me, she’s anti-death penalty, but let the record show that her office condoned the illegal purchase of lethal injection drugs.”

        Apparently, we are not allowed to celebrate the fact that the attorney general for 12 percent of all Americans is pretty cool in a few key ways or figure out where that could take us.

        I’m not so sure that this site would agree that the 2012 mortgage settlement evinced Harris “acting in good ways to defend people against foreclosure”—it said, in fact, that the deal constituted “a sellout to the banks.” I also can’t really ascertain in which “few key ways,” exactly, Kamala Harris is (or was) “pretty cool.” All of which is to say that, unlike the Financial Times columnist, I wouldn’t be inclined to join Solnit at Chez Maman East over on Potrero Hill to hear her insights.

        Reply ↓
        1. Tommy S

          That article still gets shared among the ‘left’, on FB, for good reason. There are many more completely ahistorical conclusions in it…including about the civil rights movement. UGH. And she also pushed ProporNot at least three times as truth. And every dishonest article from the guardian and WaPo about Sanders, and claimed Assange is a Putin agent multiple times.

          Reply ↓
    6. c_heale

      Complete arrogance assuming she has to get up on stage more than most of the people on Facebook. There’s a lot of people on Facebook who are actors, teachers, professors, musicians, etc, who spend most of their life on stage.

      She’s mainly a writer…

      Reply ↓
  5. antidlc

    https://www.levernews.com/how-lobbyists-could-install-bidens-replacement/

    How Lobbyists Could Now Install Biden’s Replacement

    If the president steps down, the DNC committee that could pick the new nominee is stocked with corporate lobbyists looking to influence public policy.

    Many news outlets are now reporting on the very real possibility that Biden could be replaced. But there is little discussion of the process and the identities of the corporate lobbyists working as DNC party insiders — many of whom actively lobby for Silicon Valley giants, health insurance conglomerates, and the financial services sector — who could have an outsized influence in selecting the new presidential nominee.

    Earlier this month, the Florida Democratic Party affirmed the role of even a Boeing lobbyist as a DNC member — also known as a superdelegate — the insider group that, under certain circumstances, could select the new presidential candidate.

    Reply ↓
    1. Louis Fyne

      only HRC ticks all the “right” boxes.

      Newsome seems to be too savvy to want to run in 2024. Newsome will only be 61 in 2028.

      Only a power hungry, craven soul would want to pick up the pieces if Biden is putsch-ed out.

      DC Dems are reaping what they sowed.

      Reply ↓
    2. nyleta

      The odds of Mr Trump becoming President again are of course much higher now and a look at the people in the dark background behind his run this time could lead one to think that some shock therapy a la Mr Milei in Argentina is contemplated for the US.

      Reply ↓
  8. antidlc

    Krugman:

    https://archive.ph/Gq8Gx#krugman-biden-must-withdraw
    The Best President of My Adult Life Needs to Withdraw

    Given where we are, I must very reluctantly join the chorus asking Biden to voluntarily step aside, with emphasis on the “voluntary” aspect. Maybe some Biden loyalists will consider this a betrayal, given how much I have supported his policies, but I fear that we need to recognize reality.
    Step aside for whom? Kamala Harris was, by all accounts, an effective district attorney and attorney general, and she has also been quietly effective as vice president, promoting Biden’s policies. Choosing her as his successor would in no sense be settling for less.

    Reply ↓
    1. ambrit

      “Choosing her (Harris) as his successor would in no sense be settling for less.”
      Wow! Talk about d—–g with faint praise.

      Reply ↓
      1. pjay

        Was there a group of Top Distinguished Economists who designated Biden as “Best” as they were choosing Trump as “Worst,” or is this just Krugman’s own Nobel Prize winning opinion ?

        Statements like this just reinforce my opinion of Krugman. An utterly shameless and dishonest court propagandist.

        Reply ↓
      2. hk

        I’m couple of decades younger than Krugman, but I have something good to say about every president in my life time, except W and now Biden. I can’t believe Krugman actually wrote that nonsense.

        Reply ↓
  9. Carolinian

    A few points made by Walter Kirn this morning

    –If the Dems had conducted actual primaries then at least they’d have a number two to fall back on. (me–of course that’s why they didn’t).

    –by excluding RFK they took away their most obvious alternative

    –a brokered convention is unlikely because there are too many weak possibles versus one obvious pick. The only person who could muster an organization and ready to go fan club (of middle aged ladies) would be Hillary (taibbi makes a face). Michelle is a celebrity not a politician. However Kirn does buy into the theory that Obama has been pulling the strings for four years from his DC house.

    –And one more–the source of Trump’s restraint is that up close in the studio he could see how shockingly feeble Biden is and not having a better opponent tamped down his more aggressive side.

    Oh and Kirn suggested that the Dems are so desperate they might try to actually put Trump in jail. Although I’m not sure they can, at least before the election.

    Reply ↓
      1. t

        Honestly, I wonder if the terror of Sanders success has a lot to do with their relentless refusal to entertain public opinion at all.

        Great work. Do not envy you, but thanks.

        Gonna enjoy believing the Dems do know what they’re doing and the whole debate was a set up! The coup de grace! Covid-riddled Biden has a chance to breathe all over Trump!!!

        Reply ↓
      3. N

        But the people who own and run the Dem party didnt lose out by cheating Sanders. To them Sanders would have been a catastrophe, even though he always ends up voting for the bills and clotures the neoliberal Dems really need his help to pass.

        The Dems know their third way neoliberalism has been pretty thoroughly discredited and that any candidate with even minor name recognition but who would tell voters the lies progressives want to hear would wreck the primaries for whatever neoliberal muppet they were trying to rig the thing for.

        Reply ↓
    3. nippersdad

      “However Kirn does buy into the theory that Obama has been pulling the strings for four years from his DC house.”

      And I can see why. This hit the wires at 2:06. Headline at Politico:

      “Biden addresses his disastrous performance: ‘I don’t debate as well as I used to’
      “I know how to tell the truth. I know right from wrong. And I know how to do this job,” the president told supporters at a rally in North Carolina.”

      https://www.politico.com/news/2024/06/28/biden-campaign-rally-2024-debate-00165799

      And fifty two minutes later Obama is quoted from a Twitter post at The Hill:

      “Bad debate nights happen. Trust me, I know,” Obama posted on the social platform X. “But this election is still a choice between someone who has fought for ordinary folks his entire life and someone who only cares about himself. Between someone who tells the truth; who knows right from wrong and will give it to the American people straight — and someone who lies through his teeth for his own benefit.

      https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4746434-barack-obama-joe-biden-support-rough-debate-performance-2024/

      So there we have it; the talking points have gone out. The coordinated response is that he can tell tell the truth and he can tell right from wrong. Short, pithy and well coordinated: the hallmarks of the Obama machine. This should give them time to find a hit man for Biden so that he can be replaced with as little fuss and bother as possible.

      Reply ↓
      1. Carolinian

        Taibbi played a post debate clip of Kamala saying almost exactly the same thing. At first she just made some generalized anti Trump remarks and then, after fumbling with the earpiece that people wear on satellite feed, launched on a highly coherent recitation of the above–almost as though she was being fed the lines (I’m not claiming that…still).

        The problem is that nobody believes this new spin that Trump lies and Biden doesn’t. Perhaps for me the most telling of Kirn’s observations was saying that the game where the press shapes our elections (think Dean scream) and the public plays along is over when the public is really hurting. And this is why their attempted take downs of Trump–now and also in 2016–fail because he is preaching a chicken in every pot. FDR said Huey Long was the politician he feared the most. Concrete material benefits.

        And of course all politicians lie and also plenty of reporters and TV commercials lie. It’s all about persuasion. Claiming that one candidate doesn’t lie is a rather obvious lie itself–especially when it’s Tall Tale Joe.

        Reply ↓
        1. hk

          The fundamental problem with “Trump lies, Biden doesn’t ” narrative is that Biden’s handlers have been lying about his state and accusing their enemies of lying when they raised this point for at least 2 years or more. Can they possibly believe that people are actually going to buy that nonsense?

          Reply ↓
          1. N

            Also Biden has been such a habitual liar for so long its hard to find many people other than devoted BlueMaga cultists who see him as much different than Trump here.

            Reply ↓
          2. lambert strether

            > Can they possibly believe that people are actually going to buy that nonsense?

            NICK DANGER: What kind of chump do you take me for?

            ROCKY ROCOCO [sneering]: First class!

            Reply ↓
      2. Pat

        Considering how many clear lies and deceptions we have from Joe over the years not to mention the two acts of plagiarism those talking points may fall apart quicker than the Wizard can get his next feint ready.

        Reply ↓
    4. Bob Bildenbecker

      >–And one more–the source of Trump’s restraint is that up close in the studio he could see how shockingly feeble Biden is and not having a better opponent tamped down his more aggressive side.

      Toward the end of the debate there is a wet sound loud enough to be picked up on the mic. I think the old man messed himself. Trump is a bully but there’s nothing to be gained from beating up a defenseless old man.

      Reply ↓
      2. griffen

        Constitutional Crisis was on my bingo card but this be a few years ahead of schedule. I had marked 2028 when things really like very much so begin to go tits up. Someone has to be in charge come January, right?

        Jackpot in 2025. Trump reelection, new calendar year and stawks go higher like with a Big Move. Upwards and higher. Federal Reserve delays an initial cut to ease, largely ceremonial on their key targeted rate post-November results to assuage the American economy and maybe benefit just a few citizens who aren’t super wealthy.

        Downside if you will, Democrat leaning media sources now find it surprising and newly rational to report on the record homeless in America and the struggles of the younger couples and Millennials to afford a home of their own. You know, because now it’s the Republicans fault of course.

        Reply ↓
    2. Ben Panga

      This post is excellent Lambert. Somebody in comments yesterday described NC as a pair of tongs to make it safe to pick up toxic material. Thank you for being the brave tongs; you have a stronger constitution than I do.

      Reply ↓
  11. Dr. John Carpenter

    Fascinating to me how literally overnight they’ve gone from viciously rabid defense of Biden and dismissing the numerous clips of him looking old as anything from Russian disinformation to “cheapfakes” to “oh $h!t, we have to get him off the ticket!” I just don’t see how they remove him from the ticket after being so adamant that he is ok to run. While I know the vote blue no matter who people aren’t going to care, but how do they square that with the skeptical voters who they insisted we’re seeing what they clearly saw and that Joe is perfectly fine. How do they answer who has really been running the show?

    And I don’t see how they get him to step down voluntarily. As many of the earlier links demonstrated, Biden doesn’t think he has a problem and he’s surrounded himself with yes men who aren’t going to tell him anything he doesn’t want to hear.

    They’ve really painted themselves into a corner, assuming they even want the win. They only way they get him off the ticket is death, I feel…and even then?

    Reply ↓
    1. Louis Fyne

      Taibbi cued up a great clip during his live stream…. ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=duuQ3OxZihQ& )

      comparing/contrasting Rachel Maddow’s live coverage of the debate before and after “she got the memo” about the collective judgement re. Biden’s cognition.

      one of the biggest losers in 2024 will be mainstream media—they keep hitting new lows every time it seems that the hit rock bottom in terms of credibility w/Normies

      Reply ↓
      1. Expat2uruguay

        You linked to a one and a half hour YouTube video without any time stamp to indicate a clip that you want to refer to. That’s what you did and I can tell you it’s not working for me

        Reply ↓
  12. Acacia

    “Time to take away the keys” yeah.

    Though as Ames points out, what if Biden doubles down on refusing?

    “Nonsense! I’m fine, damnnit! Just a little *cough* hoarse from this damn cold. *cough* *cough*”

    (Perhaps everybody at that debate should be getting a COVID test about now?)

    Dr. Jill has been an obvious enabler, and may continue to be.

    The other part of what Ames says doesn’t sound right, though.

    Because Joe Biden is not going to be forgotten. The Dem party may attempt to memory-hole this, but I predict people will not forget. Many will remember Biden as the heartless, venal, bastard that he’s been since the beginning of his political career, kind of like that nasty pet dog of his.

    And for that reason there are actually millions of people who will now enjoy seeing him try to hold out, to enjoy seeing the desperation and risible denial as he clings to power, doubling down, twisting in the wind, in anticipation to seeing him getting taken out by force, to meet the ignominious ending that he deserves.

    Because Joe deserves to go out with a bang, not a whimper.

    Reply ↓
    1. ChrisFromGA

      I had a momentary lapse today where I almost felt sorry for him … then I remembered Gaza, and how his policies and bombs have assisted genocide. And his horrible cabinet, the good-for-nothings like Mayor Pete, and the actively dangerous ones like Blinken. Lina Khan is the only one worth saving. And the warmongering, with Ukraine, that threatens to turn us all into dust ahead of schedule.

      So, on second thought, nah. Feelings are for chumps.

      Reply ↓
      1. Mo's Bike Shop

        Same reaction on the ‘Beat Medicare’ clip. Was grumbling to myself along the same lines while doing some cooking. I feel wrong for pitying that nasty piece of work. I probably lost dharma points.

        I suppose I could consult Mr. T.

        Reply ↓
    2. Balan Aroxdale

      Gaza genocide is being memory holed. SCOTUS just gave the White house back control of social media censorship. This can absolutely be memory holed and ever Trump ad to the contrary algorithm-ed before the election.

      Dems are going with Biden. Neocons always double down.

      Reply ↓
  13. Paleobotanist

    People with dementia often don’t know that they have dementia. Sometimes tragically they have some knowledge, but often (and it is a blessing) they don’t know.

    Reply ↓
    1. Ben Joseph

      It’s sure looking like Parkinsons to me, hence the shuffling, waxing and waning sensorium, hoarse whisper at times.

      He knows and got his team in denial mode. Because they are all selfish narcissists.

      Reply ↓
  14. Daniil Adamov

    Thanks for the roundup, very interesting.

    I think Jennifer Palmieri may well be right, though. The ones who are certainly in a panic now are Democratic-leaning pundits and, apparently, donors (how many of them and how big are they?). The party elites seem to be sticking with Biden, though. If they wanted to get rid of him, this would be a great opportunity to do so, but then again, they must have known this was a possibility a while ago. It’s probably priced in. If they stick with him and he doesn’t get much worse (a very big if, of course), the debate would fade from most people’s memories by the time of the election. None of that solves the Democrats’ many other problems, but I expect this won’t kill Biden, entertaining as it is.

    Reply ↓
    1. hk

      My impression, too. So much for the “follow the money” as an explanation.

      I think this is deeper (while PMCers will never admit to it): it’s fundamentally a cult, no less than MAGA. It’s less about Biden (or Trump) himself, but the kind of symbolic values they have acquired, especially as the counterpart to some “evils” (ironically, they share many of the same “evils,” just that their biggest “evils” are each other.). Cultists are easily duped and you can enlist them to do something, or, at least make money/gain influence off of them, but, if you hang on to them for too long, they’ll go off the cliff and take you with them…and there’s nothing that can stop them, as, if they listened to “reason,” they wouldn’t be a cult.

      Reply ↓
  15. Louis Fyne

    One of the great things about “political Twitter” is seeing the reaction of 100% non-political accounts. Last night will live on in infamy, judging by the reaction of Normies.

    one of my fav. was this from a sports-focused account…

    https://x.com/DezBryant/status/1806505342827909158

    “IM BEGGING YALL TO TUNE INTO THIS DAMN DEBATE IF YALL NOT WATCHING 😂

    PURE COMEDY!

    AIRING EACH OTHER OUT IS PURE RACHET WORK 😂”

    Reply ↓
  16. XXYY

    Ryan Grim: There is now basically zero constituency for the idea of Biden being on the ballot in November.

    I remember a famous journalist who followed the Iowa Primary in 2020 and spent a month walking around the state talking to people. He came forward at one point and said “There is basically no one in Iowa who thinks Biden should be president.” This quote got almost no play because the party was desperately trying to put him in office at that time.

    Grim’s point is not a new one.

    Reply ↓
  17. Grumpy Engineer

    OMG. ESR’s tweet about “collapsing wave functions” was hilarious. In this deeply depressing election season, it’s nice to occasionally be able to laugh out loud.

    Reply ↓
  18. DJG, Reality Czar

    Lambert Strether: Impressive, in a scary way. Thanks.

    It makes me feel better to be in the Undisclosed Region, contemplating the mildly idiotic president of the Italian Senate, Ignazio La Russa and the busts of Mussolini in his living room.

    Because my analysis is still with Erin Overbey:

    Erin Overbey
    @erinoverbey

    this is the worst production of king lear i’ve ever seen

    We are seeing enormous forces, including class warfare at play.
    –How could the Democrats get out of this pretty pass?
    –Well, pass Medicare for All with mental / dental, get that ProAct back in front of the public and repeal Taft-Hartley to encourage unionization, and cobble together some wage + jobs policy.
    –I won’t even mention ending stock buybacks.
    –Then there’s ending the proxy war in Ukraine, started in 2014. Plus ending the creeping genocide of the Palestinians. Plus turning down the foam-at-the-mouth stupidity about China.

    But that would take work, and the obtuse China policy indicates that Washington is all about the tawdriest office politics. Fighting over a stapler, while Israel blows up hospitals in Gaza.

    Aha, I have just answered my own question.

    Meanwhile, out on the moor:
    Fool.
    He’s mad that trusts in the tameness of a wolf, a horse’s
    health, a boy’s love, or a whore’s oath.

    Lear.
    It shall be done; I will arraign them straight.
    [To Edgar] Come, sit thou here, most learned justicer.
    [To the Fool] Thou, sapient sir, sit here. Now, you she-foxes!

    Reply ↓
  19. Randall Flagg

    The last 4/5 posts by Mr. Strether on this stuff is starting to rival that of cleaning the Augean Stables. I can’t thank you enough for wading into all that. And it is important to us.
    Donation on the way.

    Reply ↓
      1. Randall Flagg

        True, though every job has its “THIS SUCKS” moments. no matter how much we overall may love what we do.
        Thanks again.

        Reply ↓
  20. AG

    Well I´d rather wait for the new “Forrest Gump” to come out than debate about this “debate”.

    In serious: I remember this conversation on Non-Zero between Robert Wright and Democrat activist Sara Posner.
    https://nonzero.substack.com/p/early-access-is-a-second-trump-administration

    When I listened to her I did take her points seriously after I had watched a lot of The Duran who had claimed Biden is DOA after the laptop affair exploding etc.

    Well she was very sober and contradicted the easy opinion of Biden being too old which was wide-spread then.
    She claimed there would be no one to replace him, so pundits should stop spreading those dumb rumours.
    To claim otherwise would have been easier I think. And I respected that.
    Until now she was right.

    The discussion was in Sept. 2023. I don´t know what Posner says now.
    But it´s an interesting 50 min. still.

    p.s. Any news on Jill Stein setting up a committe probing into CIA? Would be very important considering how gullible Western MSM are towards the new secret intelligence PR on RU and CHINA. Because this is currently destroying what was left of investigative journalism in the US but especially in Europe too, not on “platforms” but paid for by classic papers. But that´s another topic…

    Reply ↓
  21. Darthbobber

    They can only be rid of Biden if the donors conduct a capital strike.

    And a brokered convention producing a nominee voted on by nobody won’t fly well either, even if the list of those they even MIGHT consider wasn’t so underwhelming.

    At this point, all of their options are bad. But this is what they wanted and here they are.

    Reply ↓
    1. Yves Smith

      One connected contact of the site reported this was happening among at least the CA super rich donor class, as in Silicon Valley and Hollywood before the debate. Trump and RFK, Jr. straw polling WAY ahead of Biden. Then the Bragg case led many to fall in behind Trump. Also reports in that crowd of those with NYS businesses moving them out of state after the tax case.

      Reply ↓
  22. Tom Stone

    I spoke to a friend who has severe TDS, as does his wife.
    They both were deeply upset about Biden’s performance until they realized that he had simply overprepared and had a cold.
    He’s still sound mentally and Physically, he was just “under the weather.”….
    BTW, they are flying to Hawaii for a week on Monday.

    Reply ↓
  23. VietnamVet

    This is an important compilation of unfiltered social media panic. Only on NC. All caused because the 16-billion-dollar utterly corrupt election gravy train is ending for consultants and rotating senior executives. With four years under his belt, revenge, and the help of fellow believers, Donald John Trump will sweep clean the Executive Branch and end government regulation for the foreseeable future. It is the “Deep State” that is feeling the dread.

    Although ignored by corporate media, the parallels in history are real. Much like 1850’s Bloody Kansas, a horrific proxy World War 3 is underway in Ukraine and Gaza with no end in sight except for Joe Biden’s withdrawal like LBJ did in 1968 because of the Vietnam War. A series of astonishing defeats from Kabul to the Houthi blockade of the Suez Canal assure that victory by the West is impossible. The only alternative to Doomsday is armistices, DMZs and a second Cold War mitigated by the United Nations. This is only possible if Joe Biden goes and the Democrats honestly diminish Donald Trump’s excesses for the good of all Americans. Note: “We” & “People” are the largest words in the Debate Wordle above.

    Reply ↓
  24. Lambert Strether Post author

    The Wizard of Kalorma™ has weighed in, and he’s not wetting the bed. See the UPDATE under that heading.

    * * *

    I was talking with an long-time friend and follower of Democrat politics, and they said that Biden’s inability to close his mouth reminded them of their mother when she was dying; their mother had the same characteristic (perhaps IM Doc could weigh in on this). My friend was about to write this off as an idiosyncratic reaction until they talked to their brother, who thought the same thing.

    So let me throw myself into the “Fanciful Scenarists” bucket.

    Suppose Biden’s dying and the Democrats keep him running until he dies in harness, ideally after he’s nominated (Kamala as VP). Doesn’t that solve the biggest problem? The Democrats now don’t have to get rid of him; he does that for them. Kamala’s on the ticket as VP; so leave her there, and swap in Governor Hair, Big Gretch, or Mr. Opera Ain’t Over at the top of the ticket. (Kamala probably wants to step up but (a) she is naturally grief stricken, and not in any kind of shape to run for the top job, (b) with Biden gone, she has no power base at all, and (c) she’s still on the ticket isn’t she? “She just needs more seasoning.”*

    I’m quite taken with the idea of Biden dying in harness; it’s horrid and cynical enough to be true. Of course, it does make the Democrat leadership out to be ghouls… but here we are!

    NOTE * I think this hypothetical ticket might win if Biden were a beloved figure (see Mel Carnahan) but he isn’t.

    Reply ↓
    1. ChrisFromGA

      (This is getting really morbid.)

      That scenario presumes a degree of control over the timing of the arrival of the grim reaper that may not realistically exist. What if Joe manages to hang on until, say November 10? Kamala is sworn in. End of story.

      What about October 31? A lot of early voting will have already happened. What about October 16? A bit of early voting may have already happened. Way too late.

      A “switcheroo” is probably not happening unless things go southbound in a hurry before Labor Day. And that’s only about 65 days or so from now.

      Reply ↓
      1. Lambert Strether Post author

        You’re right, the timing could work against this. Biden didn’t look good though, not at all (especially in comparison to Trump, who looked twenty years younger, had good footwork, etc.).

        Reply ↓
        1. Ben Panga

          When one is very old and being given multiple major medications daily, the timing of one’s death is very controllable. Interested parties would just need to get close enough for a bit of subtle chemical Epsteining.

          Reply ↓
          1. Ben Panga

            If I were such an interested party I could first try a less homicidal method. Perhaps tweaking meds before a debate to leave one’s enfeeblement exposed would suffice.

            Reply ↓
      2. nippersdad

        “That scenario presumes a degree of control over the timing of the arrival of the grim reaper that may not realistically exist.”

        Nothing that a little time spent eating ice cream and mulling over affairs of state in the corvette with the garage doors closed couldn’t fix. “It was tragic, but he would have died doing what he loved” said chief mourner, Hillary Clinton.”

        I wouldn’t put too much past them.

        Reply ↓
        1. ambrit

          A ‘convenient’ heart attack, or a serious bout of the coronavirus would do the trick. I’ve read that various spy agencies have chemicals that can induce heart failure and make it look like a natural event.
          Somehow, and not in a good way, the ‘juiced up’ look to Biden during the debate reminded me of the stories of how a certain European dictator ended up fully under the influence of stimulants and soporifics at the end of his run. Mass casualties were one of the side effects of that medical intervention. Here’s hoping Biden doesn’t end up the same way. He already shows a preference for bunkers (special basements) to hide in.

          Reply ↓
          1. nippersdad

            That opening statement of his! The way he rattled it off, as if memorized by rote and then rushed so that he wouldn’t forget anything, was one of the most manic things I have ever seen. It looked like he was on some kind of amphetamine, but once he lost the thread it was all downhill until he started mentioning his sons later on; they kicked back in like a tiny time pill.

            That whole thing was just crazy, but after seeing that I can easily believe he might have a heart attack. Those veins sticking out and the buggy eyes; not photogenic at all.

            Reply ↓
      3. lyman alpha blob

        Hang on? The man can’t make it down two or three steps without assistance. One “accidental” little nudge by the minder taking him off stage is all it would take. Barry orchestrated his rise from a distant #5 to the presidency with the Night of the Long Knives. Perhaps he’ll do the honors again.

        Reply ↓
        1. ChrisFromGA

          Maybe Joe needs to take a page out of the NFL and play some prevent defense.

          You know, where you hold the ball, let every second run off the play clock and run the ball into the nose tackle.

          How about a good 3-week vacation starting next weekend? Hang out at the Beach House, work on that handicap. No pressers. The Blinkenator can handle foreign policy & Mayor Pete can handle any big transportation strikes or Boeng planes falling apart over urban areas.

          Why by the time he comes back, it will practically be August 9!

          Reply ↓
      4. scott s.

        >What if Joe manages to hang on until, say November 10? Kamala is sworn in. End of story.

        This is late, but, no, not “end of story”.
        First, presidential election day this year is 17 December, with 11 December the deadline for states/DC to send “Certificate of Ascertainment” that (3USC5)

        “(A) set forth the names of the electors appointed and the canvass or other determination under the laws of such State of the number of votes given or cast for each person for whose appointment any and all votes have been given or cast;”

        and

        “(B) Certificates issued pursuant to court orders.—
        Any certificate of ascertainment of appointment of electors required to be issued or revised by any State or Federal judicial relief granted prior to the date of the meeting of electors shall replace and supersede any other certificates submitted pursuant to this section.”

        and

        “(1) In general.—Any action brought by an aggrieved candidate for President or Vice President that arises under the Constitution or laws of the United States with respect to the issuance of the certification required under section (a)(1), or the transmission of such certification as required under subsection … ”

        So I see a “can of worms” about these “certificates” in your scenario, as in my state (Hawaii) the statutes for appointing electors don’t provide for this kind of situation and my take is it would end up in the Hawaii Supreme Court (I assume 99% chance Ds take the presidential canvass here).

        Reply ↓
    2. IM Doc

      Yes – the open mouth is actually very common as a person is reaching his final weeks/months. That is known as the “O-sign”. The “Q-sign” is often seen when death is imminent – the tongue hanging out one side of the open mouth to make a letter Q. This is seen in those who have mere hours or days left. The terminal patient with a wide open mouth often has a very dry mouth.

      However, an inappropriately open mouth is also a very common sign in dementia. Walk through any memory care unit in America. The “facies” as we say in medicine are often very similar. The patient is sitting in the chair, looking off into eternity with a complete blank stare, mouth wide open. When they communicate verbally, they often leave the mouth open when they are not speaking. This is mostly seen in late stage dementia. Based on many other issues going on with Biden, I would say that is where we are with him right now. He may live for a long time. His analytic mind and critical executive function, however, are largely gone.

      Medically, what concerned me most last night about President Biden were the extremely dilated pupils and just not blinking. Also – not making much in the way of any facial expressions at all. The not blinking and facial expression issue could be just a very recent application of Botox. That would not surprise me in the least. However, the dilated pupils are not normal for his age group at all, not related to dementia, but are related to multiple different types of stimulant drugs.

      He was well into mid stage dementia during the campaign of 2019. It was obvious in his behavior and physical exam findings clearly visible on videos. Dementia issues must be evaluated by MOCAs or other cognitive tests but the corresponding physical exam findings in mid to late dementia are very obvious to a trained eye – and he had them. What we saw last night is someone in mid to late dementia.

      If there is any doubt – go back and look at his 2012 campaign debate videos with Paul Ryan. The absolute contrast is striking – it could easily be used in a classroom to show the signs of progressive dementia. This is just simply not a mystery. There is such a thing as getting older and being 80 – look at Trump. There is also such a thing as getting older – being 80 – and having dementia. Look at Biden.

      This is so very sad. It is indeed elder abuse. I was confronted with multiple employees this AM showing me TikTok videos, etc of Biden dementia hilarity. All it did was make me ill. I have had multiple discussions today with them all about elder abuse and to put the phones down. People in his condition should be protected, not exploited or abused or ridiculed. Shame on his family in every way. And shame on all the others pushing this disaster on the USA. This latest out of Obama is just very concerning to me for any thought I had of any morality that may have been there.

      Interestingly, there is now no doubt among my colleagues in the physician lounge. He is absolutely demented in their eyes. These were people who as recently as a week ago were chastising anyone for bringing this up – the VIDEOS ARE OBVIOUSLY FAKE. These are DOCTORS. Many of whom have been around dementia patients for decades. Well, that is all gone as of this AM. And the switch in this group and our national media has been literally the scariest thing about this. Taibbi has a video of Rachel Maddow literally changing her tune during the same TV program. It is scary. It seems to me this is exactly what Orwell was trying to get at. I am very concerned about where this may be going.

      Reply ↓
      1. Samuel Conner

        Granting this diagnosis, is there any conceivable valid argument for not applying the remedy available in the 25th Amendment?

        In view of the national security implications, and granting the assumption that the officers around JRB are themselves compos mentis, are they derelict in their duties in not urgently ascertaining whether the conditions are appropriate for invoking the 25th Amendment?

        If the internal argument is that removing the President now would damage the D Party prospects in November, that strikes me as a serious conflict between “duty to country” and “sense of allegiance to Party.” IIRC, DJT was impeached for being perceived to have come down on the wrong side of a similar question.

        Reply ↓
      2. katiebird

        > Shame on his family in every way.

        I agree! A loving wife and son would be saying, “Dad – it’s time to stop. To retire.” But Jill and Hunter aren’t doing that. It’s awful.

        Reply ↓
      4. Carolinian

        Thanks very much. I find it hard to feel sorry for Biden who has been guilty of so much when it was in his right mind. But arguably the country in general is also being subject to a kind of breathless cynicism masquerading as virtue. And not just our country either…..

        Reply ↓
      5. Mikel

        Basically, it’s the handlers around Biden that have to be convinced to step down. How hard could it be to talk Biden into or out of anything? He’s barely there.

        Reply ↓
      6. Ben Joseph

        I’ve stated elsewhere he fits Parkinsons way more than anything else. Wherein the intelligence wobbles as part of the on/off phenomena, lack of blinking, masked facies, turning ‘en bloc’ etc…

        Reply ↓
      8. CA

        1) https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/12/opinion/biden-trump-america.html

        February 12, 2024

        Why I Am Now Deeply Worried for America
        By Paul Krugman

        It’s also true that many voters think the president’s age is an issue. But there’s perception and there’s reality: As anyone who has recently spent time with Biden (and I have) can tell you, he is in full possession of his faculties — completely lucid and with excellent grasp of detail. Of course, most voters don’t get to see him up close, and it’s on Biden’s team to address that. And yes, he speaks quietly and a bit slowly, although this is in part because of his lifetime struggle with stuttering. He also, by the way, has a sense of humor, which I think is important…

        Reply ↓
        1. Acacia

          Yeah, compare (1) above to (2) below.

          Some years ago, I was worried about Krugman for a few minutes, and then I moved on.

          Reply ↓
      9. CA

        2) https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/06/25/opinion/thepoint/krugman-biden-must-withdraw

        June 25, 2024

        The Best President of My Adult Life Needs to Withdraw
        By Paul Krugman

        Joe Biden has done an excellent job as president. In fact, I consider him the best president of my adult life. Based on his policy record, he should be an overwhelming favorite for re-election.

        But he isn’t, and on Thursday night he failed to rise to the occasion when it really mattered. I could and would complain about the lack of real-time fact-checking as Donald Trump spewed a fire hose of lies and about the general prevalence of theater criticism taking the place of policy analysis. But complaining about those things right now isn’t going to save American democracy in this moment of crisis.

        Given where we are, I must very reluctantly join the chorus asking Biden to voluntarily step aside, with emphasis on the “voluntary” aspect. Maybe some Biden loyalists will consider this a betrayal, given how much I have supported his policies, but I fear that we need to recognize reality.

        Step aside for whom? Kamala Harris was, by all accounts, an effective district attorney and attorney general, and she has also been quietly effective as vice president, promoting Biden’s policies. Choosing her as his successor would in no sense be settling for less…

        Reply ↓
      10. Yves Smith

        FWIW, and we may never see this on camera with Biden, but one of my mother’s aides who had worked a lot in nursing homes said that when patients stare into the middle distance (and there is no obvious object of interest there) and claw at the air in the direction of their gaze, every time she or her fellow staffers saw it happen, they died in a week-ten days. My mother apparently did that a few times in the week before she died but the aide did not alert me.

        Reply ↓
    4. Fiery Hunt

      It’s my understanding that the 12th Amendment prevents Electorial College electors from voting on 2 people from their home state. Prez and VP are voted on in separate votes.

      See here

      There’s also some question as to whether a replacement not named Kamala Harris would have access to the huge stash of cash that is very explictly for Biden- Harris campaign. Can’t just transfer it to a new candidate.

      So ol’ Joe’s it.
      Gonna enjoy this slow mo trainwreck.

      Reply ↓
    5. steppenwolf fetchit

      If indeed that is the secret DemParty plan, then they will have him travel and much and campaign as hard as they can, willing to risk that he dies ” too soon” in order to make sure that he doesn’t die ” too late”.

      If that is so, how do they get Dr. Jill to go along with it? Or do they indulge her in her belief that ” its just a cold”, ” its just a flesh wound” etc.?

      Reply ↓
  25. John

    One can pity or empathize with the man. The president’s attitudes and actions in the Ukraine and Gaza horror shows are unforgivable.

    The pretender to the presidency made his record during his term. He threatens more of the same and adds a revenge tour.

    Some choice.

    Reply ↓
  26. Samuel Conner

    > “a choice between someone who has fought for ordinary folks his entire life and someone who only cares about himself.”

    I think that maybe there’s a semantical error here; that “for” seems to not correspond to the actual record of legislative accomplishments.

    As John above notes, “some choice”.

    Now, a primary between JR “We beat Medicare[ for All]” Biden and HR “Medicare for All will never, ever happen” Clinton, … that would have been a choice!

    Reply ↓
  27. John D.

    Re: The elder abuse angle, as commented on by Mark Ames and others. Whenever this kind of talk has surfaced over the past few years, it always put me in mind of something Gore Vidal said towards the end of Ronald Reagan’s presidency. When it became increasingly difficult to cover up Reagan’s mental decline, there was (apparently) some sympathy expressed for the old bastard, some people murmuring that perhaps he shouldn’t be held responsible for the many criminal acts enimating from his White House, since he obviously wasn’t – or even could be – the one ordering them. In response to this, Vidal wrote something along the lines of, “To the extent that he [Reagan] understands what’s going on around him, he almost certainly agrees with it.”

    I think it’s exactly the same with BIden. Bombing the Nordstream Pipeline may not have been done on his orders per se, but it was surely done with his knowledge and approval. So, no sympathy here. Screw him.

    Reply ↓
    1. Dr. John Carpenter

      They already did that a few months ago when the special counsel said Biden was too old and out of it to stand trial for the classified docs mishandling.

      Reply ↓
        1. hk

          Which is probably why he stopped short of actually prosecuting Biden. Makes for bad optics, for both politics and in the interest of justice. (Unlike certain other prosecutors)

          Reply ↓
  28. Frank

    Quite emblematic of the condition of the state apparatus.
    1)A dementia victim known to prevaricate.
    2)A crooked real estate developer and known pathological liar.
    God bless America

    Reply ↓
      1. Alex Cox

        A crooked real estate developer is likely to value buildings and property.
        Whereas a dementia victim with anger management issues and a savage dog is likely to value nothing at all.

        Reply ↓
  29. Jason Boxman

    I dunno. Liberal Democrats do tend to wet themselves. But it’s what the 10% or whatever of voters in the 3-5 states that are competitive think when election (or early voting) day comes that matters, in the end. Biden is a lock on this. They aren’t pitching him over the side.

    As Lambert frequently says, x days is a long time in politics. We’ve got quite a few months before November. It’s entirely possible this is forgotten, really. And how often are they gonna let Biden out in public after this? I doubt we’ll see much of this kind of performance again, and they do seem to be able to juice him up. Maybe the “cold” or COVID rendered the drugs ineffective.

    We’ll see, but I think this is mostly just an exercise in liberal Democrats wetting themselves.

    Reply ↓
    1. steppenwolf fetchit

      In the spirit of this comment, Beau of the Fifth Column has a video called Lets Talk About Never-Trump Republicans and Biden. Here is the link.
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rhNPrtewBjk

      If Beau is correct, then the question becomes . . . who has more votes? The Never-Trump Republicans?
      Or the Never-Dem progressives?

      Reply ↓
  30. Mikel

    Telling people they didn’t see what they saw is not the way to respond to this.

    — Ben Rhodes (@brhodes) June 28, 2024

    That’s the establishment’s top choice for response to crisis.
    What’s new?

    Reply ↓
  31. TomDority

    Can’t put up someone who will win – the economy is due a flop – whomever wins will take the fall. Got to think about the future of the party…not the country.
    Geez- they ain’t running for a job with lawmaking ability – they got veto power, oh and they got command of the military….their main job (presidents) is to jabber on the bully pulpit and provide cover to lawmakers by grabbing all the attention, fame and blame for what the hookers in congress have financially obliged themselves to do for their Johns.
    Guess that makes me a cynic. All this BS being thrown about when IMHO the majority of people, if given a choice, would act and vote for the good of the country and further IMHO the majority of people are damned smart, creative and productive and in line with the Constitution.
    Instead our candidates and congress never fail to avoid talking of the corrupting influence of money in government —-
    “Government by organized money is just as dangerous as Government by organized mob.”

    But we have this cabal of as%hole$ who have only interest in lining pockets with cash …no matter the cost to everyone else. It used to be the job of Government to make the cost of living, producing and working cheaper….now it appears that the governments sole purpose is to ensure private income and profits to the holders of the most cash (rights of speech) and want one dollar to represent one weighted vote. Those with the most dollars get the most votes……. and to hell with a more perfect union or the common good. Because the media is geared to earn more money with the more eyes on… the extremes and the sensationalism are the only way to measure success via dollars and the middle or reasonable or factual are but drags on profits.
    Both candidates are not qualified by any measure to hold office and both parties are terminally corrupted by big money.
    Lincoln said something
    “We, the People, are the rightful masters of both the Congress and the Courts. Not to overthrow the Constitution, but to overthrow the men who have perverted it.” – Abraham Lincoln
    and some other fellow
    “It is a universal truth that the loss of liberty at home is to be charged to the provisions against danger, real or pretended, from abroad.” -James Madison
    “A state of war only serves as an excuse for domestic tyranny.” -Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn
    Or even
    “We had to struggle with the old enemies of peace–business and financial monopoly, speculation, reckless banking, class antagonism, sectionalism, war profiteering.
    They had begun to consider the Government of the United States as a mere appendage to their own affairs. We know now that Government by organized money is just as dangerous as Government by organized mob.
    Never before in all our history have these forces been so united against one candidate as they stand today. They are unanimous in their hate for me–and I welcome their hatred.”
    Election eve speech at Madison Square Garden (October 31, 1936)
    Franklin Delano Roosevelt
    I will add that their is to me, an astounding lack of anyone or anybody for ‘these forces’ to stand against– If you stand up for what FDR stood up for – well, it is obvious to me, both parties will have nothing to do with you as both parties stand up for ‘these forces’

    Reply ↓
  33. petal

    Thank you to all of the NCers that commented last night. Great page to read through today.
    And after 5 years of what felt like shouting into the wind, I finally feel vindicated. Finally.
    Cheers!

    Reply ↓
  34. B24S

    What a beautiful blossom!! I could get lost in that picture.

    Thanks are due, Lambert, as I wasn’t going to go near that pile last night.

    Reply ↓
  35. upstater

    No difference between Biden, Trump or RFKjr on Israel:

    Exclusive: US has sent Israel thousands of 2,000-pound bombs since Oct. 7 Reuters

    The Biden administration has sent to Israel large numbers of munitions, including more than 10,000 highly destructive 2,000-pound bombs and thousands of Hellfire missiles, since the start of the war in Gaza, said two U.S. officials briefed on an updated list of weapons shipments.

    Between the war’s start last October and recent days, the United States has transferred at least 14,000 of the MK-84 2,000-pound bombs, 6,500 500-pound bombs, 3,000 Hellfire precision-guided air-to-ground missiles, 1,000 bunker-buster bombs, 2,600 air-dropped small-diameter bombs, and other munitions, according to the officials, who were not authorized to speak publicly.

    So the genocide continues. Or are these for Hezbollah?

    Reply ↓
    1. upstater

      I shouldda added that is 10 kilotons of 1 ton bombs, approaching Hiroshima and Nagasaki type destruction. Plus the other bombs. Not that it wasn’t obvious. The elites turn their gaze…

      Reply ↓
  36. JM

    I didn’t watch any of it last night, just watching that clip at the top of the page is shocking. I agree with something on the debate live-blog from the Taibbi stream, that the reason Trump didn’t go harder is he felt some shred of sympathy; though I’d modify it to add that his instincts seem to be pretty good and it isn’t a good look to be beating up on a frail old man with one foot in the grave.

    I’ll never understand why the D establishment didn’t force Biden out ~2 years ago, install Harris and do their best to push her. Then if the dogs wouldn’t eat the dog-food they could have a normal election and try to dredge someone half acceptable up.

    As a side note – I check on FB periodically, where it’s mostly old high-school connections and whatever the algos pull up; and there were precisely 0 political posts and barely any posts from the last 3 days. But tons of unrelated posts from accounts I’ve never seen before.

    Reply ↓
    1. Acacia

      why the D establishment didn’t force Biden out ~2 years ago…

      I’d say: because in fact the D establishment has deep and total contempt for most people in this country.

      At bottom, they simply don’t believe in the idea that the people should be sovereign. They think the people are too stupid to make choices concerning the leadership, and that should be their role instead. So any subversion of the electoral system in the name of “our democracy” all makes sense to them.

      Eliminating the primary, forcing Biden on voters, not having any Plan B, not having a deep bench, trying to deny what people are now seeing — these are all symptoms of the same underlying contempt.

      Reply ↓
      1. Tom Doak

        Biden was installed to be a war president and he has been their dream leader:
        1) aggressive by nature
        2) not a diplomatic bone in his body
        3) too feeble to resist, so his handlers run things
        4) too proud to back down once it starts

        Harris could not have done any of that, so there was no way Joe could be replaced this term.

        Reply ↓
        1. The Rev Kev

          And as a war President, it was his job to execute Project Ukraine by his backers. They just had to shut down Project Afghanistan first to clear the decks.

          Reply ↓
  37. cowboy frankenstein

    Hey, at least Jill was half-correct: Joe Biden does wake up every morning!

    Where are Kang and Kodos when we need them most?!?!

    Reply ↓
  38. Michael Hudson

    For me, the scariest part was not his physical demeanor. It’s when he told Trump that if Putin wins in Ukraine, he will go straight on and invade Poland — and then grab more of Europe.
    THIS domino theory is his guiding philosophy. THAT’s what’s going to start a real war.

    Reply ↓
  39. Pat

    I love how accepting this as elder abuse also turns the media myth that the Biden’s are a loving and supportive family on its ear.

    But after the easy snipe I do have to wonder how much of this is a result of learned behavior. We have seen Joe’s nasty and vicious nature on a few occasions. The dogs, his daughters diaries, all indicate that is his base personality not the aberration. His family may be well trained to keep Joe happy as much as his underlings do. Even if this is the case they should have stopped him in 2019 and absolutely stopped him from running again now if they loved him.

    Reply ↓
    1. Paleobotanist

      If Biden terrorizes staff, he terrorizes family most likely, so they are not going to rescue him. If you read King Lear closely, it’s pretty clear that it’s a case of chickens coming home to roost… His elder daughters did have good reason to despise the old man and Cordelia was a trusting naive things that got her killed. Kurosawa’s Ran clearly brings that out.
      Shakespear’s play is bleak on many levels about karma and consequences.

      Reply ↓
  40. ChrisPacific

    Brief grump moment: I don’t like the ‘Wizard of Kalorama’ term (make of that what you will).

    Communities with a long history (like this one) tend to gradually develop a vocabulary of their own that is understandable only to insiders. While this helps build a shared sense of community, it can also make it feel confusing, intimidating or impenetrable to new readers. Captain Awkward, who has a similar problem, expresses it thus:

    New here?

    Hello!

    The archive is giant, is it not? And the commenters all seem to know each other already and we use a secret language.

    She addresses it with a glossary and set of ‘canon’ posts that link to the origins of the terms. We have nothing like that here. I still have no idea what ‘the Wizard of Kalorama’ means or where it came from, despite several attempts to search for it. I know what it must be by context, but every time I see it I get the sense that I’m missing an inside joke. And I’ve been reading the blog for over 15 years!

    I suggest that either we add a glossary/greatest hits section, or try and tone it down a little and make things more accessible on an ongoing basis by explaining terms periodically. I know the first is an assignment and against the rules, but I think the second doesn’t require any extra work and wouldn’t be too hard.

    Reply ↓
      1. ChrisPacific

        Aha. In that case, I would hazard a guess that it’s a Wizard of Oz reference (Obama being the man behind the curtain) but I’m not 100% sure. And our hypothetical new reader would still be none the wiser, unless they’re in the habit of reading comment threads on old Water Coolers.

        Reply ↓
    2. Lambert Strether Post author

      > I don’t like the ‘Wizard of Kalorama’ term

      The term derives from this post: “Is Obama Running a Shadow Government from His Mansion in Kalorama, Washington DC?“. Have a read. (In that post, I also link to the Town and Country article linked to immediately above, using a photo. I don’t want to be cranky about this, but doesn’t anybody consider searching the site?)

      As far as community vocabularies, I understand the argument but I don’t agree. First, the term considered only in the context of this post is clear enough; the “Wizard of Kalorama™” bucket includes only Obama operatives (and, after the UPDATE, Obama himself). Second, I use the term with reasonable regularity in Water Cooler. (I do so because it suggests “the man behind the curtain” (do I need to cite to this?), “Mr. Wizard,” and because it mocks the pretentions of Obama’s overly credulous supporters). I grant that you have to be a regular reader of the site to get all this, but I don’t think it’s an overly demanding ask.

      As far as a glossary, it’s a good idea in theory. I’ve done them in the past, and in a past life developed them professionally. However, a glossary is a lot of work to create, and must also be continuously maintained, as our evolving language “moves out from under” the glossary. So, no.

      Reply ↓
      1. ChrisPacific

        Fair enough. I did flag it as a grump moment, so I think you’ve been reasonably polite considering. I’m happy with understanding and won’t press the issue further on agreement.

        I did search the site, but you do not use the term ‘wizard’ anywhere in that post, so it didn’t show up. You do use it frequently in Water Cooler, generally without explanation, so I got many pages of hits on those.

        Reply ↓
  42. katiebird

    Thomas Friedman (NY Times) thinks it’s time for Biden to drop out of the race: Joe Biden Is a Good Man and a Good President. He Must Bow Out of the Race.

    I watched the Biden-Trump debate alone in a Lisbon hotel room, and it made me weep. I cannot remember a more heartbreaking moment in American presidential campaign politics in my lifetime, precisely because of what it revealed: Joe Biden, a good man and a good president, has no business running for re-election.

    (note) I have to disagree with the idea that Biden is “a good man and a good president”

    Reply ↓
  43. KD

    We’re the greatest nation in the world by God, we can get by with a Commander in Chief who cannot express a coherent thought unless he reads it off a teleprompter.

    Its not actually dementia, Biden is spearheading the AI revolution, he’s become a human LLM, you just need to control for the hallucinations and the dog-faced pony soldiers.

    Reply ↓
  44. Mikel

    Well, this is the Biden campaign story and they are sticking to it:
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jun/28/biden-north-carolina-post-trump-debate-speech
    Biden comes out swinging in first speech after presidential debate with Trump

    “Night and day,” said Brenda Pollard, a delegate to the Democratic national convention from Durham, North Carolina. “I mean, to me, today was who he is. And there it is, just like I just said, he’s energized by the people. Last night he didn’t have that. That’s no excuse, but I think it played a factor in it.”

    Utter nonsense. So why no crowd at the debate? I suspect because JB would be even less able to focus on the debate with possible distractions in the crowd. With a speech, it’s easier for him to pick up where he left off and the handlers to help him do it.

    Reply ↓
    1. Acacia

      I’ve already been scolded by a Team Blue voter for even considering Stein and West.

      “So — you want Trump to win, huh??”

      In response, I said that the Democrats are not going to vote-shame their way to victory, and the conversation moved on to something else.

      But I’m pretty sure that’s not the end of it.

      A Democrat wipeout in November will doubtless get blame-shifted to Stein, West, and RFK.

      Reply ↓
      1. John Anthony La Pietra

        My typical response to such (mis)leading questions is along these lines. . . .

        In our current “First Past The Post” system, *NO* vote for an alternative can *EVER* help a Republican beat a Democrat or a Democrat beat a Republican.

        If we get Ranked Choice Voting, a vote for an alternative as a first choice can have the back-up position of going to your preferred lesser evil if your real preference doesn’t win. And as long as you don’t go on to rank the evil you see as greater, *that* candidate will never get your vote.

        But there’s one more thing to remember. It’s been true for years now that, when surveyed, more voters said they identified with neither Republicans nor Democrats than with either one.

        https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/Party-Affiliation.aspx

        Which shows that, if we ever get past the propaganda and scaremongering — and finally manage to vote with the courage of our convictions — we can make real change.

        Reply ↓
  46. The Rev Kev

    The reaction of the main stream media was worth watching. Saw a MSNBC panel and Joy Reid was talking about how she was constantly getting calls while watching the debate. When asked who, she replied political operatives and “civilians” but she ignore the civilians and just took the calls of the operatives. So name dropping without actually mentioning names. Neat. All on the panel, Maddow included, agreed that Democrats are natural panicers and bed-wetters hence the reaction to the debate. I wondered for a moment if they actually preferred Republican voters over their own or something. In a way, it was like watching a bunch of high schoolers say that they are the cool kids so everybody has to bow down and make their offerings.

    Reply ↓
  47. Willow

    >Fanciful Scenarists

    TINA! TINA! TINA! /v

    There is no way in hell TINA will allow Kamala be the first female president.

    Thought point of early debate was to get it over and done with so they can hide Biden away – Weekend at Bernie’s style – until end of term (as people have noted Biden looks like he’s at the point of needing to be in palliative care), while also setting up urgent need for an ‘express’ nomination before the Ohio deadline.

    Reply ↓
  48. John k

    Maybe death is the only way to get him off… so he dies whether pushed or shoved. Kamala wasn’t nominated for pres, so somebody else could get that nom at the convention. She might stay to hold the black vote, and maybe to assure the campaign money stays fixed. Just supposing.

    Reply ↓
  49. dao

    The calls for Biden to step aside have gotten louder and louder as the day wears on. All the news sites are now openly suggesting he step down.

    Reply ↓
      1. The Rev Kev

        They certainly seemed flustered about old Joe. Nonetheless, they are still trying to make it all about Trump. The TDS is strong with these ones. Same with their audience. But judging by that post-debate Biden video clip. I think that Biden won’t budge and thinks that he has to stay to beat Trump. The long and the short of it is that they are forgetting their own country and only about their political/personal loyalties-

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xgzAGM3j2G0 (11:00 mins)

        Reply ↓
        1. flora

          This is the 3rd Pres race in a row where the Dem base voters have effectively been shut out of the primary process to choose the candidate. 2016 was Her Turn and all the would be contenders, including B, were told to stand back from a primary run. Bernie was allowed as a bit of what the Dem estab thought would be good theater. When his campaign caught traction and he started winning primaries the party stepped in to quash his candidacy. In 2020 I remember there were several primary contestants including Bernie. Again the estab stepped in and suddenly B was the nominee, most other candidates suddenly withdrawing at roughly the same time. This year of course we were told there would be no Dem pres primary. B was the candidate. Except now maybe B isn’t going to be the candidate. The Dem estab must have know last year when they announced no primary that B was failing. So we might get another pol, a hand picked estab standard bearer no one voted for in a primary. The Dem estab doesn’t trust their base to vote the “correct” way for the “correct” candidate. That is very clear.

          Reply ↓
          2. RA

            Flora, nice summary.

            That is when it became totally clear to me that the Dems would never allow me to vote for anyone who might actually do anything desirable.

            Now it is a choice between an honest protest candidate or just abstaining.

            Reply ↓
  50. juliania

    As just a plain citizen I’d like to suggest Tom Udall as a likely candidate for president.

    Wikipedia:

    …during the 113th Congress, Udall introduced a proposed amendment to the Constitution that would reverse Citizens United and allow limits on outside spending in support of political candidates.[17][18] The Amendment won the approval of the Senate Judiciary Committee on a 10–8 vote in July 2014.[18]

    And when I was applying for my Social Security, back when Mr. Udall was a New Mexico congressman – his team helped me get enough more of a monthly check than my interview had awarded me that assisted me in keeping my home. I’ve been grateful ever since. (Plus he’s currently US Ambassador to New Zealand,which is my native land so probably doesn’t want the job of President, but maybe that’s who we need in office.)

    Not to mention his father was Stuart Udall – a great man in his own right.

    Reply ↓
    1. hk

      And a nephew of Mo Udall, of whom I have a great deal of respect, although there is something queasy about 3rd generation politicians from a political family, even if their forefathers had a great reputation for integrity.

      Reply ↓
  51. Lambert Strether Post author

    I want to clarify the persistent claims that Trump is a liar; Democrats seem to think that fact-checking Trump’s lies, and counting them up, is an effective strategy (“Trump lied 990 times! I have a list! That shows he’s unfit to be President!”). First, it’s obviously not; voters have priced Trump’s prevarications in. Second, and more importantly, calling from a liar misapprehends the nature of the man (“Know your enemry”). Trump is not a liar; Trump is a bullshit artist. The distinction was clarified in Harry Frankfurt’s seminal On Bullshit:

    This is the crux of the distinction between [the bullshitter] and the liar. Both he and the liar represent themselves falsely as endeavoring to communicate the truth. The success of each depends upon deceiving us about that. But the fact about himself that the liar hides is that he is attempting to lead us away from a correct apprehension of reality; we are not to know that he wants us to believe something he supposes to be false. The fact about himself that the bullshitter hides, on the other hand, is that the truth-values of his statements are of no central interest to him; what we are not to understand is that his intention is neither to report the truth nor co conceal it. This does not mean that his speech is anarchically impulsive [a typical indictment of Trump], but that the motive guiding and controlling it is unconcerned with how the things about which he speaks truly are [adaptive behavior for a New York real estate salesman].

    It is impossible for someone to lie unless he thinks he knows the truth. Producing bullshit requires no such conviction. A person who lies is thereby responding to the truth, and he is to that extent respectful of it. When an honest man speaks, he says only what he believes to be true; and for the liar, it is correspondingly indispensable that he considers his statements to be false. For the bullshitter, however, all these bets are off: he is neither on the side of the true nor on the side of the false. His eye is not on the facts at all, as the eyes of the honest man and of the liar are, except insofar as they may be pertinent to his interest in getting away with what he says. He does not care whether the things he says describe reality correctly. He just picks them out, or makes them up, to suit his purpose [which describes Trump to a T[.

    Biden is — credit where credit is due — merely a liar. While I was watching the debate, during Biden’s introductory remarks, I wrote at 9:04pm,: “30 seconds in, and Biden lies about the bleach story. He’s also quite hoarse.”

    * * *

    For those unfamiliar, I’m going to quote the origin story of “bleach” at length. It’s an interesting example of Democrats and the press working and in glove. From Water Cooler, April 2024:

    UPDATE Trumph (R)(2): “Donald Trump Coronavirus Press Conference Transcript April 23” [Rev Transcript Library]. I hate doing this, but I’m gonna have to do it. Caveat: I don’t love Trump. The introduction:

    [TRUMP:] With each passing day, we’re learning more and more about this enemy. The scientists at DHS, have released a report offering a number of insights about how the virus reacts to different temperatures, climates and surfaces. The findings confirmed that the virus survives better in colder and drier environments and does less well in warmer and more humid environments. I have to say that very excitingly, we’re going to have somebody up… [Bill Bryan of DHS], will be up in just a little while, that was a great report you gave. And he’s going to be talking about how the virus reacts in sunlight. And when you hear the numbers, you won’t even believe them. US trials of the COVID-19 have been going on and have been approved in the United States, Germany, UK and China, that’s big news. And we’re… A lot of trials are going on, and we have a lot of great, brilliant minds working on this both from the standpoint of a vaccine and therapeutics.

    Caveat: I don’t love Trump. Discounting for puffery, that’s not so bad. Not Jed Barlett, of course, but who could compare with Jed Barlett? And now the passage of the day:

    [TRUMP:] A question that probably some of you are thinking of if you’re totally into that world, which I find to be very interesting. So, supposedly we hit the body with a tremendous, whether it’s ultraviolet or just very powerful light[1], and I think you said that hasn’t been checked, but you’re going to test it. And then I said supposing you brought the light inside the body, which you can do either through the skin or in some other way. And I think you said you’re going to test that too. Sounds interesting, right? And then I see the disinfectant, where it knocks it out in one minute. And is there a way we can do something like that by injection inside or almost a cleaning because you see it gets in the lungs and it does a tremendous number on the lungs, so it’d be interesting to check that so that you’re going to have to use medical doctors with, but it sounds interesting to me. So, we’ll see, but the whole concept of the light, the way it kills it in one minute. That’s pretty powerful.

    Caveat: I don’t love Trump. If — stay with me, here — you read what Trump actually said — you can see that headlines like this “Trump suggests ‘injection’ of disinfectant to beat coronavirus and ‘clean’ the lungs“, or “Trump suggests injecting disinfectant into the body to treat coronavirus“, or this reporting from Reuters, “Trump suggested scientists should investigate inserting the cleaning agent into the body, or statements like this one from Pelosi, “The president is asking people to inject Lysol into their lungs,” are, quite simply, false. It’s a very old game to leave out all the qualifiers, which I have helpfully underlined, and that’s what Pelosi and the journalists — who are now political players at the tactical level, and not reporters — have done. My view is that Trump sees is a powerful agent (the disinfectant) getting a result, and he’s unequipped either in vocabulary or expertise to formulate the question of operationalizing (not sure that’s the word i want) that agent medically (quinine was orignally the bark of a tree, after all; penicillin a mold, etc.). That may be a venial sin, but it’s not a mortal one. For example, if I said that liberal Democrats continue to force-feed us shit sandwiches, nobody would take that literally (if not seriously). Caveat: I don’t love Trump, ffs.

    All in all, a discouraging look at our political class, including the press, in action.

    The Democrat dogpile had an immediate effect: Trump’s remark was part of his regular (daily?) presser on Covid, where he acted as a sort of impresario for officials (and, I think, some scientists (and not GBD nuts either)). Following Pelosi’s distortion, Trump stopped doing them like a switch was thrown, I assume because he thought the media firestorm was a political liability (and, speculating in trick cyclist mode: “For once in my life I did some good and what happens? I get punished for it”).

    I think shutting down the pressers was a bad result in terms of fighting Covid. At least frequent, public, televised Presidential pressers on the pandemic conveyed the message to the public that the pandemic was an urgent matter. It generated stories, commentary, pushback. It also signaled that matters of public health were to a degree open (scientists were, after all, capturing Trump’s ear; for all we know, an aerosol scientist might have done so). Subsequently, the anti-pandemic effort became in essence a black box (Operation Warp Speed, for example, was undertaken with virtually no coverage). This continued when the Zeints’s of this world took over under Biden.

    Reply ↓
    1. Samuel Conner

      IIRC, Deborah Birx looked really uncomfortable as DJT was saying that.

      He was talking about the idea of internal application of disinfectants powerful enough to quickly destroy the CV. That strikes me as very irresponsible, and it’s an illustration of the “bullsh!tter” interpretation of the man’s communication approach. He wanted to lift the public mood a bit, and so bullsh!tted about something that he imagined might make people feel a little more optimistic.

      I’m less offended by the use of “bleach” as verbal shorthand for this episode than I am by a sitting President emitting medically consequential bullsh!t like this. Bullsh!t has no place in public health communication.

      Of course, for JRB to bring this up is kind of rich. Lies have no place in public health communication, either.

      Reply ↓
    2. Samuel Conner

      > I think shutting down the pressers was a bad result in terms of fighting Covid.

      I think that outcome was inevitable, regardless of press characterization/mischaracterization of presidential communications, given DJT’s instrumental/utilitarian approach to public communication.

      I recall hearing the 2/25/20 livestream press availability (archived here, I think) with Nancy Messonnier. In response to a press inquiry, she affirmed that US public health authorities were of the opinion that the CV would eventually spread in the community — i.e. that current efforts would not be sufficient to contain the US outbreak.

      IIRC, this disheartening news (which as we know was an accurate forecast) hit the news wires and the stock market fell. DJT responded to this bad news by removing Messonnier from future press availabilities. Truth telling was punished or, if not punished, suppressed.

      I don’t think one can blame the unfortunate consequences of DJT’s attempts to manage public perceptions of the pandemic on press and political mischaracterizations of some of his irresponsible remarks. Those may have accelerated the process, but they did not cause it.

      (And one can similarly criticize JRB for being more concerned with perceptions about than the substance of the ongoing public health crisis. That continues to this day.)

      Reply ↓
  52. Lambert Strether Post author

    About the Twenty Fifth Amendment, it’s complicated and not easy (fortunately, or it would be frequently invoked, like impeachment):

    Section 4 addresses the dramatic case of a President who may be unable to fulfill his constitutional role but who cannot or will not step aside. It provides both a decision-maker and a procedure. The initial deciding group is the Vice President and a majority of either the Cabinet or some other body that Congress may designate (though Congress has never done so). If this group declares a President “unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office,” the Vice President immediately becomes Acting President. If and when the President pronounces himself able, the deciding group has four days to disagree. If it does not, the President retakes his powers. But if it does, the Vice President keeps control while Congress quickly meets and makes a decision. The voting rule in these contested cases favors the President; the Vice President continues acting as President only if two-thirds majorities of both chambers agree that the President is unable to serve.

    Section 3 and (especially) Section 4 are long and complicated by constitutional standards. Nevertheless, they leave a number of issues unsettled—most significantly, what counts as presidential “inability.” At the Constitutional Convention in 1787, delegate John Dickinson asked, “What is the extent of the term ‘disability’” in the proposed presidential succession clause, “and who is to be the judge of it?” No response is recorded. By giving the President, Vice President, and Congress important and distinct roles, the Framers of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment went a long way toward answering the second part of Dickinson’s question, rather than try to resolve the first part.

    So the initial barrier is getting Kamala + a Congressional majority on board. Not easy. But if Biden declares himself able to discharge his duties, there’s a four day process that would culminate in a vote with a 2/3 majority, which favors Biden. I think most politicians would shrink from inititiating this process. which is no doubt why it was designed as it is.

    Reply ↓
  53. Lambert Strether Post author

    I wrote:

    If the Democrats are to replace Biden, they have 52 days at the outside to choose his successor, introduce them to the public, and turn the tanker of the campaign (besides replacing all of Biden’s staff). That’s a heavy lift.

    I should have thought of this before, but to a Democratic strategist, that means there’s a lot of money at stake; could be in the hundreds of millions, even the billions (since there’s absolutely no reason to think that Biden’s successor would retain Biden’s staff, consultants, media strategy, media buys, etc.).

    Does anybody else remember Nomiki Honst at the Unity Reform Commission (founded 2016):

    Her point is that the Democratic National Committee’s budget is not public, and that the DNC is controlled by four or five rich and powerful Democratic strategists, who are not named. The DNC’s budget is still secret, and the strategists are still not named.

    So if I had to attribute motives, and look for the drivers of anti-Biden sentiment — beyond sincere, legitimate, indeed fully justified concern, that is — I would look for Democratic strategists who weren’t billing to the Biden campaign, who see a billion dollar opportunity in replacing those who are. That’s the other succession strategy going on here!

    NOTE This post is inspired by Moon of Alabama, who writes of “DNC assault on his campaign.” I think it’s too simple to indict the entire DNC as an institution, but no question that’s a good place to look for a “hidden hand.” Another place would be Kalorama; it’s entirely possibly that Obama orchestrated the entire dogpile before shutting it down (although this would imply he has as succession plan in mind, but it’s hard to see what it would be; Obama could simply have realized he painted himself into a corner back in 2020, there are no good alternatives, and so kicks the can down the road, and who knows, maybe Joe will croak. “Getting to the next screen,” as I think gamers say).

    Reply ↓
    1. Steve H.

      > I would look for Democratic strategists who weren’t billing to the Biden campaign, who see a billion dollar opportunity in replacing those who are.

      Talking with Parker & came up with three vectors on RFK_Jr:

      : Kennedy clan: billionaires (donors and not) are far more comfortable with dynastic clans of known proclivities.

      : Kennedy sheen: over half a century, and it still glows.

      : Leverage: if the vote goes 49%/49% for the other two, his two percent throws the vote to the House and the Republicans win. That’s a position from which to make demands.

      Just saying…

      Reply ↓
    2. katiebird

      I think the 25th amendment is to powerful and dangerous to actually use.

      But I. think Jill Biden should get her husband out of there. She needs to invoke her authority as his wife and take him permanently back to Delaware. He’s a sick man and should not be subjected to the demands of the Presidency and a reelection campaign.

      I don’t know why reporters, pendants, and other politicians aren’t screaming this from the headlines.

      Reply ↓
    3. Dr. John Carpenter

      This is also a great post. I think one thing people miss when thinking about this whole situation is they take things at face value or still believe the stated principles. You can’t think of this situation in terms of a bunch of people wanting to do “the right thing” for the country but they just are a little wrong on the details. Thats just the window dressing and misses the point. These people are playing an entirely different game than what most people think and you have to adjust your thoughts accordingly. If they wanted to “do the right thing”, they’ve never have forced Joe Biden through the 2020 primaries in the first place. These aren’t stupid people and they aren’t inept. They just are playing a different game than most people see.

      Reply ↓
    4. David in Friday Harbor

      Lambert, I’m glad that I scrolled through Comments to this Nomiki Konst rant and then MoA’s post.

      I was bothered that the on-screen pundits magically “knew” that the DNC nomenklatura wanted Totenkopf to bow-out, as should have happened with Mrs. C in 2016 after the email leaks. This “debate” was a set-up, a Night of the Long Knives.

      However, just like Ernst Rohm, he’s not going to shoot himself in his jail cell. It’s not clear that anything was accomplished other than turning-off the same group of 2008 Kenyan Jesus voters who failed to show up in 2016.

      Reply ↓
  55. Mark A

    Too much foolishness for a Saturday morning. The quicker the USA is broken up and no longer exists the better it will be for the worid.

    Reply ↓
  56. Jamie

    I wonder if a family member (like Jill) has talked Joe into Power of Attorney. She kind of acts like it.

    Reply ↓
  57. Phil

    Ageism is rife on this thread. As a lover of classical music, I have seen multiple pianists who are generally in some kind of decline perform on stage. Sure, they miss a few more notes than they did in their youth, but they’re overall performance inspires applause.

    no president pulls all the strings. Biden has TEAM. THat’s who I’m voting for. Trump and his gang of thieves, woman-haters, liars, proto-fascists, theocrats, science deniers and insurrectionists make me sick to my stomach. Anyone who can even consider voting for Trump after all we’ve seen is either ignorant of facts or a potential cult member.

    Reply ↓
    1. Yves Smith

      You Biden defenders need to do better than ad hominem attacks and lame excuses.

      Did you miss that Biden’s team is terrible? Blinken. Sullivan. Harris. Yellen. Mayo Pete. The only decent ones are heading what are considered to be secondary agencies, Khan at the FTC and Gensler at the SEC

      Reply ↓

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *