2:00PM Water Cooler 6/7/2024

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Bird Song of the Day

Killdeer, Marmon fields, Williams, North Dakota, United States.

* * *

In Case You Might Miss…

(1) Trump, Trump, Trump…..

(2) A lot of new Covid numbers. I admit that some of my notes are a little irritated.

(3) Taylor Swift, superspreader.

(4) Vivian Maier: first exhibition

(5) Steroids: is everybody really taking them?

* * *

Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

* * *

2024

Less than a half a year to go!

RCP Poll Averages, May 24:

No discernible effect from Trump’s conviction yet (though Democrats have only just begun to exploit it). Swing States (more here) still Brownian-motioning around. Of course, it goes without saying that these are all state polls, therefore bad, and most of the results are within the margin of error. If will be interesting to see whether the verdict in Judge Merchan’s court affects the polling, and if so, how.

* * *

Trump (R) (People vs. Trump): “Vermont GOP rules bar it from promoting any candidate who is a ‘convicted felon'” [NBC]. So change the party rules. But more seriously–

Trump (R) (People vs. Trump): “Plot twist: WA has a law against felons running for office” [Seattle Times]. “‘I have clients lined up who are going to be all over pursuing a ballot challenge in this case,’ says David Vogel, a Seattle attorney and former deputy prosecutor for King County who was briefly involved in an earlier ballot challenge against Trump before the presidential primary.” • It would be interesting to know if there other states with such laws. Readers? NOTE: Trump is now subject to the criminal justice system in the State of New York. It will be interesting to see how that plays out.

* * *

Trump (R): “Behind the Curtain: MAGA’s jail plan” [Axios]. “Another Trump insider pointed to a federal civil rights statute, ‘Conspiracy Against Rights'” • 18 U.S. Code § 241 – Conspiracy against rights

If two or more persons conspire to injure, oppress, threaten, or intimidate any person in any State, Territory, Commonwealth, Possession, or District in the free exercise or enjoyment of any right or privilege secured to him by the Constitution or laws of the United States, or because of his having so exercised the same; or

If two or more persons go in disguise on the highway, or on the premises of another, with intent to prevent or hinder his free exercise or enjoyment of any right or privilege so secured—

They shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than ten years, or both;

(I assume the “highway part” is for night riders in the Civil Rights era.) The Sixth Amendment in Bragg’s case, I would say (since the architecture of Paul, Weis Bragg’s case didn’t give the Defendant time to prepare a proper defense; though I grant the Trump team isn’t making that argument, and since IANAL, perhaps I’ve gotten that wrong).

Trump (R): “Multiple Trump Witnesses Have Received Significant Financial Benefits From His Businesses, Campaign” [ProPublica]. Importantly: “Trump campaign head Susie Wiles, a Florida political consultant, was present when Trump allegedly went beyond improperly holding onto classified documents and showed them to people lacking proper security clearances. When Trump was indicted on June 8, 2023, over his handling of the documents, the indictment described Wiles as a ‘PAC representative.’ It described Trump allegedly showing her a classified map related to a military operation, acknowledging “that he should not be showing it” and warning her to “not get too close.” That June, Right Coast Strategies, the political consulting firm Wiles founded, received its highest-ever monthly payment from the Trump campaign: $75,000, an amount the firm has equaled only once since. Wiles had been a grand jury witness before the indictment. News reports indicated Wiles had told others that she continued to be loyal to Trump and only testified because she was forced to. (And, according to Wiles, Trump was told she was a witness sometime before the indictment’s June release.) The Trump campaign official told ProPublica that the spike in payments was largely because Wiles was billing for previous months. She also got a 20% raise that May, from $25,000 to $30,000 per month. ‘She went back and redid her contract,’ the official said, adding that her role as a witness was not a factor in that raise. A few months later, the Wiles family got more good news. Wiles’ daughter Caroline, who had done some work for Trump’s first campaign and in the White House, where she reportedly left one job because she didn’t pass a background check, was hired by his campaign. Her salary: $222,000, making her currently the fourth-highest-paid staffer. (The Trump campaign official said her salary included a monthly housing stipend.)” Then again: “‘It feels very shady, especially as you detect a pattern. … I would worry about it having a corrupt influence,’ Barbara McQuade, a former U.S. attorney for the Eastern District of Michigan, said after hearing from ProPublica about benefits provided to potential Trump witnesses. But McQuade said these cases are difficult to prove, even if the intent were actually to influence testimony, because savvy defendants don’t explicitly attach strings to the benefits and would more likely be ‘all wink and a nod, ‘You’re a great, loyal employee, here’s a raise.'” • And in fact, if you look at the numbers, Wiles is doing a great job.

Trump (R): “Wisconsin attorney general files felony charges against attorneys, aide who worked for Trump in 2020” [Associated Press]. “Felony forgery charges were filed in Wisconsin* on Tuesday against two attorneys and an aide who helped submit paperwork falsely saying that former President Donald Trump had won the battleground state in 2020. The state charges are the first to come in Wisconsin and follow separate charges brought in Arizona*, Michigan*, Nevada* and Georgia related to the fake electors scheme. The Wisconsin charges were brought against Trump’s attorney in the state, Jim Troupis, 62, attorney Kenneth Chesebro, 62, who was advising the campaign and Mike Roman, 51, who was Trump’s director of Election Day operations. Roman allegedly delivered Wisconsin’s fake elector paperwork to a Pennsylvania congressman’s staffer in order to get them to then-Vice President Mike Pence on Jan. 6, 2021. All three are due in Dane County Circuit Court on Sept. 19, according to court records. They each face one felony count punishable by up to six years in prison and fines of up to $10,000.” • NOTE * Swing states. Would be interesting to see the karmic hammer strike the Trump campaign in 2024 for the “contingent electors” scheme in 2020 (and even Fani Willis butchered the Georgia case, similar cases are proceeding, quietly, elsewhere.

* * *

Trump (R): “Trump’s doc requests reveal VP short list” [Axios]. “Former President Trump has requested financial and other documents from eight potential VP picks as he formalizes his vetting, an official tells Axios. Some candidates got more extensive paperwork requests than others — a possible clue to how hotly they’re being considered. The contenders, in no particular order: Sen. J.D. Vance (Ohio); North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum; Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.); Sen. Tim Scott (S.C.); Ben Carson, former HUD Secretary; Rep. Elise Stefanik (N.Y.); Rep. Byron Donalds (Fla.); and Sen. Tom Cotton (Ark.). We’re told the list, reported earlier by Politico and others, is very much subject to change.” • Time Scott would make some heads explode. Stefanik, too, for that matter.

* * *

Trump (R): “Why Trump’s Second Victory Would Be Worse” [Robert Borosage, The Nation]. Here, for a change, is a Democrat yarn diagram (better than the usual, because the relationships are typed; far worse, since the relationships are often free-floating, not connecting any of the players):

One such relationship, from Stephen Miller to… nothing, is “Insurrection Act used to pursue political enemies” (whoever would have come up with such an idea). In any case, what that does show is that Project 2025 is “existential” for Democrats, personally. Borosage writes: “Of course, there will be resistance [whatever did happen to Neera]—in Congress, the bureaucracy, and the press.” • Well, given that election 2024 is indeed existential for our democracy Democrats — and it’s not just this diagram that’s saying that — it follows that Trump must be prevented from taking office “by any means necessary,” as Malcolm X said, ironically enough. So it’s odd that Borosage, now that events in Paul, Weis Judge Merchan’s court seem to have been the high tide of lawfare, doesn’t mention, besides “Congress, the bureaucracy, and the press,” the spooks. Or not so odd. Everybody knows it (“six ways from Sunday“), so why not say it? NOTE I should take a look at what Project 2025 has to say about the spooks. Perhaps thoughtful people have anticipated the relevant scenarios.

* * *

Realignment and Legitimacy

That DEI thing is working out great:

* * *

“Conservative family who relocated from California to Idaho to escape liberal politics reveal why they’ve now moved back” [Daily Mail]. “‘We decided after 3 years in Idaho, we are going back home.’ ‘We wanted to move to a Conservative state, but we realized what it would mean to fit in,’ [the TikTok] continued. ‘It would mean we would need to be judgmental. We would need to gossip about others. Have our kids forget how to say please and thank you. Talk bad about new people moving here for a better life. ‘We left California because of politics[,] but forgot there are other kinds of politics to consider…'” • Hmmm…..

“Florida is so last year — here is the new affordable hotspot people are moving to in 2024” [New York Post]. “In 2023, Florida practically owned the list of most moved-to cities, with six in the Top 20 and five in the Top 10. This year, South Florida is the third most fled, right behind much-maligned Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay Area, [Zillow’s] numbers showed.” • Housing, insurance costs, cost of living. Pretty mundane! Anyhow, now it’s the Carolinas and Nashville.

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

* * *

Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

* * *

Look for the Helpers

Please consider taking the time to sign this petition to the the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services:

Transmission: H5N1

Euphonious:

I can only hope that this time Leonardi is wrong.

A long, informative thread from Fiegl-Ding on the H5N2 case in Mexico:

Vaccines

I don’t know if, at this point, we can ever have a rational discussion of vaccines, but if we manage to achieve this, the historical record on morbidity should be taken into account:

Censorship and Propaganda

Cases? What cases?

(I discuss the how case data and wastewater data diverged, after tracking in unison, here in April 2023.) AFAIK, so-called public health always focused on reducing transmission, never on hospitalization and deaths, which is what CDC focused on (although now even that data is going dark). Of course, even “mild” infection can cause vascular and neurological damage, as well as Long Covid, as readers know, but which cannot be too often stated.

A good list of blame-worthy thought leaders:

But even more to blame are the people who funded the thought leaders, betrayers who should be sunk in the ice of the Ninth Circle of Hell. (Also, has anyone checked in on the UK? Seems to be rather a lot of illness about.)

Celebrity Watch

“Taylor Swift spreads Covid: thousand of fans fall ill after Madrid and Paris concerts” [El Nacional]. “Taylor Swift certainly does not leave her fans indifferent. A week after the US singer performed in Madrid as part of her Eras Tour, the 130,000 people who saw her at the two concerts held in the Spanish capital still remember an unforgettable night. What many don’t know is that they left the Santiago Bernabéu Stadium with more than just souvenirs and outrageously-priced merchandising. Many also picked up an unexpected souvenir: a dose of Covid-19. Over the past few days, thousands of fans have commented on social media that they fell ill after attending the concerts on May 29th and 30th. A situation that is not surprising, considering the large crowd packed into the stadium, all of them singing their favourite tunes at the top of their lungs. And despite the fact that the severity of the pandemic situation is now much reduced, the virus itself persists… To give an idea, the leading Spanish fan Twitter/X account dedicated to Taylor Swift held a poll asking followers if they had come down sick after going to one of the singer’s concerts in Madrid. A full 35% of people who took part – the equivalent of 3,780 – responded positively…. On June 9th and 10th, Paris hosted two concerts by Taylor Swift – three weeks before the Madrid shows – and a similar situation was experienced there, in which thousands of French fans reported feeling unwell, with symptoms compatible with Covid.” • See here at NC on Taylor Swift, who makes every effort to protect herself and her entourage from Covid, but does nothing to protect here fans Notice the difference between indoors and outdoors:

Would it really be so difficult for squillionaire Swift to confine herself to outdoor venues? Assuming that not giving her devoted fans heart and brain damage is a priority for her?

“The latest concert must-have? Stylish earplugs” [Financial Times]. • Not, of course, N95s as branded merch, heaven forfend.

Elite Maleficence

You’d think the Republicans could blame mass infections on Biden (and they’d be right):

“Collective issue”? Is Cuomo some kinda Communist?

No but seriously, Cuomo has commendably been plugging away at Long Covid coverage.

WHO recommends handwashing, but not PPE or masks, against bird flu:

European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control: “The virus spreads directly from bird to bird via airborne transmission or indirectly, through faecal contamination of material, feathers or feed.” CDC: “However, human infections with avian influenza A viruses can happen when enough virus gets into a person’s eyes, nose or mouth, or is inhaled. This can happen when virus is in the air (in droplets or possibly dust) and a person breathes it in, or when a person touches something that has virus on it and then touches their mouth, eyes or nose.” • We learn nothing.

#DavosSafe:

They know. They just don’t want you to know.

The Bullingdon Club at play:

* * *

Lambert here: Patient readers, I’m going to have to rethink this beautifully formatted table. Biobot data is gone, CDC variant data functions, ER visits are dead, CDC stopped mandatory hospital data collection, New York Times death data has stopped. (Note that the two metrics the hospital-centric CDC cared about, hospitalization and deaths, have both gone dark). Ideally I would replace hospitalization and death data, but I’m not sure how. I might also expand the wastewater section to include (yech) Verily data, H5N1 if I can get it. Suggestions and sources welcome. UPDATE I replaced the Times death data with CDC data. Amusingly, the URL doesn’t include parameters to construct the tables; one must reconstruct then manually each time. Caltrops abound.

TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

–>

Cases
❌ National[1] Biobot May 13: ❌ Regional[2] Biobot May 13:
Variants[3] CDC June 8 Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC May 25
Hospitalization
New York[5] New York State, data June 6: National [6] CDC May 18:

Positivity
National[7] Walgreens May 28: Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic June 1:
Travelers Data
Positivity[9] CDC May 20: Variants[10] CDC May 20:

Deaths
‘ Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11]CDC May 18: ‘ Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12]CDC May 18:

LEGEND

1) for charts new today; all others are not updated.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (Biobot) Dead.

[2] (Biobot) Dead.

[3] (CDC Variants) FWIW, given that last week KP.2 was all over everything like kudzu, and now it’s KP.3. If the “Nowcast” can’t even forecast two weeks out, why are we doing it at all?

[4] (ER) This is the best I can do for now. At least data for the entire pandemic is presented.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Slight leveling out? (The New York city area has form; in 2020, as the home of two international airports (JFK and EWR) it was an important entry point for the virus into the country (and from thence up the Hudson River valley, as the rich sought to escape, and then around the country through air travel.)

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). This is the best I can do for now. Note the assumption that Covid is seasonal is built into the presentation. At least data for the entire pandemic is presented.

[7] (Walgreens) 4.3%; big jump. (Because there is data in “current view” tab, I think white states here have experienced “no change,” as opposed to have no data.)

[8] (Cleveland) Going up.

[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Up. Those sh*theads at CDC have changed the chart so that it doesn’t even run back to 1/21/23, as it used to, but now starts 1/1/24. There’s also no way to adjust the time rasnge. CDC really doesn’t want you to be able to take a historical view of the pandemic, or compare one surge to another. In an any case, that’s why the shape of the curve has changed.

[10] (Travelers: Variants) Same deal. Those sh*theads:

[11] Deaths low, but positivity up.

[12] Deaths low, ED not up.

Stats Watch

Employment Situation: “United States Unemployment Rate” [Trading Economics]. “The unemployment rate in the United States rose to 4% in May 2024, the highest since January 2022, up from 3.9% in the previous month and surprising market expectations, which had forecasted the rate to remain unchanged…. Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate dropped to 62.5% from 62.7%, and the employment-population ratio decreased to 60.1% from 60.2%.”

* * *

CNBC: “United Airlines starts serving passengers personalized ads on seat-back screens” [CNBC]. “Now playing on United Airlines’ seat-back screens: personalized ads. The carrier on Friday said it launched a media platform to serve travelers personalized advertisements on seat-back screens and in its app, among other platforms, as it seeks to leverage customer data. Customers can opt out of seeing targeted ads through a United web page [oh, right], and United says advertisers can’t access customers’ personally identifiable information, the airline said.’ There is the potential for 3.5 hours of attention per traveler, based on average flight time,’ United said.” • It’s a gold mine, I’m tellin’ ya! (Also, “personalized” without being “personally identifiable” is a neat trick.)

* * *

Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 44 Fear (previous close: 45 Neutral) [CNN]. One week ago: 43 (Fear). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Jun 6 at 1:53:46 PM ET.

Photo Book

“In 'Unseen Work,' Vivian Maier's Incredible Photographs Go On Display for Her First U.S. Retrospective — [Colossal]. “In 2007, Chicago resident John Maloof landed on the discovery of a lifetime at a thrift auction house on the city’s Northwest Side. A stunning archive of more than 100,000 negatives by photographer Vivian Maier (1926-2009) went under the hammer, marking a new chapter in the prolific documentarian’s story. Maier’s incredible images focus on people she passed on the street around her hometown in France, then New York and Chicago, illustrating her deep love for the medium and innate ability to capture moving portraits and candid, natural interactions. Over the decades, her dedication amounted to one of the most remarkable photographic collections of the century Maier (previously) never exhibited her work during her lifetime, and she rarely made prints from her negatives. Having worked as a nanny for many years, she faced financial instability later in life, and her photographs ended up in storage along with other belongings, which were ultimately sold off when the rent went unpaid.” • I can’t believe this is the firsr Maier exhibition:

Zeitgeist Watch

“Why Is Everyone on Steroids Now?” [GQ]. “Someone in your life is using performance-enhancing drugs. I feel comfortable making that bet because I recently discovered how many people in my life are using performance-enhancing drugs [(PEDs].” Well… “Multiple guys said they were bothered by the persistent stereotypes of PED users as meatheads, as aggro dudes prone to so-called roid rage—it just didn’t square with the people they had befriended. ‘There are doctors, engineers, government officials, nurses, software engineers, attorneys, small-business owners, accountants,’ a 32-year-old named J.R. told me. He lives in North Carolina and serves as an administrator in one of the forums. ‘There are devoted husbands and committed fathers. There are men more well-versed in organic chemistry and scientific literature than most of the people I went to college with.'” • In other words, PMC men are on steroids (with the possible exception of nurses). There may certainly be a PED culture in the working class, but if so, this genuinely creepy article doesn’t show it.

“Study Says That People Who Like Loud Exhaust Are Psychotic” [Car and Driver]. Works for me. “A new study by Western University in Ontario says that if you’ve got a car with a modified exhaust system, odds are you’re a guy and probably also psychotic and sadistic…. The study group comprised 529 undergrad business students who were asked whether they thought loud cars are cool, whether they viewed their cars as an extension of themselves, and if they’d modify their own cars to make the exhaust louder. Further, each participant took a Short Dark Tetrad personality survey to assess predilection toward general malice and belligerence—psychopathy, narcissism, manipulativeness. Somewhat surprisingly, the straight-pipe crowd didn’t score high on narcissism, indicating that the appreciation of stridently broadcast internal combustion isn’t motivated by, ‘Hey, look at me!’ It’s more like, ‘Hey, listen to my Nissan VQ, whether you like it or not.'” That’s reassuring. More: “If you’re wondering what sort of other affinities might be predicted by high scores in sadism and psychopathy, the study says that those sorts of traits have also shown up in responses asking if the participant had intentionally started an illegal fire.” • Now do people who use cellphones like walkie-talkies.

Class Warfare

“Vinod Khosla, Marc Andreessen And The Billionaire Battle For AI’s Future” [Forbes]. “Andreessen and his allies envision a best-case-scenario future in which AI prevents disease and early mortality, and all artists and businesspeople work with an AI assistant to enhance their jobs. Warfare, without bloody human blunders, will have fewer human casualties. AI-augmented art and films will appear everywhere. In a manifesto detailing his position last year, Andreessen, who declined an interview request for this story, dreams of open-source paradise, with no regulatory barriers to slow AI’s development or red-tape moats that protect big companies at the expense of startups. All three billionaire investors appear on this year’s Midas List of the world’s top tech investors for investments that reach beyond AI—with Hoffman at No. 8, Khosla at No. 9 and Andreessen at No. 36—but it’s in the emerging category where their influence is most acutely felt. These prominent leaders of the last tech revolution are now pushing their views on the key topics of the next.” • AI = BS. None of this will ever happen. AI will not “augment” humans; that’s not how capital accumulation works. AI art will be horrid and no human artists will have any work, because AI art is “good enough,” and all those who could show what the difference is will be too impoverished to create, let alone educate. It’s really telling that the first big AI “innovation” to hit the labor market was eliminating call center employees (which, artists, is what you are to capital as well).

News of the Wired

“We Are Made of Waves” [Nautilus]. “As Strassler writes, we are all ‘wavicle-creatures,’ and ‘the universe sings everywhere, in every thing.'” • Maybe. I looked hard for something to excerpt. This was it!

* * *

Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From Mark Kinnucan:

Mark Kinnucan writes: “A stone hoisted into the air by the roots of a fallen hemlock, Mohican State Park, Ohio.” Great metaphor….

* * *

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About Lambert Strether

Readers, I have had a correspondent characterize my views as realistic cynical. Let me briefly explain them. I believe in universal programs that provide concrete material benefits, especially to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime example, but tuition-free college and a Post Office Bank also fall under this heading. So do a Jobs Guarantee and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can deliver on such programs, because the two are different flavors of neoliberalism (“Because markets”). I don’t much care about the “ism” that delivers the benefits, although whichever one does have to put common humanity first, as opposed to markets. Could be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don’t much care, as long as the benefits are delivered. To me, the key issue — and this is why Medicare for All is always first with me — is the tens of thousands of excess “deaths from despair,” as described by the Case-Deaton study, and other recent studies. That enormous body count makes Medicare for All, at the very least, a moral and strategic imperative. And that level of suffering and organic damage makes the concerns of identity politics — even the worthy fight to help the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton’s wars created — bright shiny objects by comparison. Hence my frustration with the news flow — currently in my view the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the other by out-of-power liberals and their allies in the State and in the press — a news flow that constantly forces me to focus on matters that I regard as of secondary importance to the excess deaths. What kind of political economy is it that halts or even reverses the increases in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I am also very hopeful that the continuing destruction of both party establishments will open the space for voices supporting programs similar to those I have listed; let’s call such voices “the left.” Volatility creates opportunity, especially if the Democrat establishment, which puts markets first and opposes all such programs, isn’t allowed to get back into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I love the tactical level, and secretly love even the horse race, since I’ve been blogging about it daily for fourteen years, but everything I write has this perspective at the back of it.

112 comments

  1. Roger Blakely

    Los Angeles County Public Health updates it COVID data on Fridays.

    http://publichealth.lacounty.gov/media/Coronavirus/data/index.htm

    Hospitalizations are not up. However, cases, tests, and SARS-CoV-2 wastewater concentrations are all up. The summer surge is here.

    On Sunday I went to the West Hollywood Pride Parade. It was the first large event that I have attended since the beginning of the pandemic. I have spent the week trying to recover from the exposure. I wore my respirator. I have concluded that I got sick from the variety of subvariants. Since I wore my respirator, I didn’t get hit with a large volume of virus. I didn’t get hit with any major new subvariant. I got hit with a dozen subvariants of JN.1. My immune system has to identify each subvariant and round it up. The cloud of subvariants puts a lot of stress on the immune system.

    1. Steve H.

      We popped positive last week. We are strict on indoor protocols, but I helped with an outdoor set build sans mask on Saturday, no hollering, mostly separate, not enough. For us, tired, mild temperature, sore throats. Our second time.

      Most important, I can nail the time and place, and no one was symptomatic. No one missed time during tech week or performances. Asymptomatic transfer.

      1. Lambert Strether Post author

        > Asymptomatic transfer

        I’m sorry you both got sick.

        This weirdly instant shift from JN.1 to KP.* really bugs me; I would like to know if these variants are more transmissible or not (it sounds from both your anecdotes that it might be).

        Readers, if you know any studies on KP.* transmissibility please let me know.

        1. Steve H.

          And with variant soup, the idea that we are immune for at least a couple weeks seems shaky. Jabs are variant-specific.

          Transmissibility: Nov 2022: At least 32 unmasked people were infected by a man jogging through a park without a mask

          I’ve played the odds outdoors by keeping occurrences to a few times per week, with small numbers of people, and a limited window of the infected being contagious. But more people showed up than I expected (generally a good thing), and I put the asymptomatic aspect as a root cause for increasing transmission. The morale of the ensemble is very good, and anybody who felt symptoms would not have come.

    2. Lambert Strether Post author

      > nce I wore my respirator, I didn’t get hit with a large volume of virus. I didn’t get hit with any major new subvariant. I got hit with a dozen subvariants of JN.1. My immune system has to identify each subvariant and round it up. The cloud of subvariants puts a lot of stress on the immune system.

      Variant soup….

  2. Wukchumni

    A friend does short term rentals here in Tiny Town in a nice cottage that is next to her primary place of dwelling and she’s right personable and meets her guests-unlike most all AirBnB’ers, and this is what she wrote me this morning in the aftermath of our mutual friend coming down with a June Flu…

    I’ve been seeing a lot of this with my guests who have been on planes or delayed in airports. It is really going around this time of year, for some reason.

    1. Bugs

      I just flew in to The Great Satan yesterday and I can report that 3 people in my plane were wearing masks and the kind older Bostoner next to me put on her n95 when she saw me wearing my ffp2. The steward in our section wore a baggy blue covered with a company cloth one. Inside CDG, more workers than travelers with masks. At ORD, I didn’t see anyone with a mask and that baggage claim was poorly ventilated and total madness as per non-official Chicago standards.

      1. Angie Neer

        I went across the country and back by air last week. By actual count, mask prevalence in the airport was about 3%, and half of those were baggy blues. On the plane, about 4% (10 people in a plane carrying over 200), almost all KN95. Numbers were small enough that I skewed them slightly high by including myself and my wife (in Aura N95s).

    2. B24S

      Was in the dentists chair Wednesday (sigh, he had to send the crown back for a bit more porcelain on one face), after their “summer” break. He and his receptionist/GF had been in Hawaii for two weeks, and the DA had gone to Venice with her daughter, SIL, and his sister. (She did go to San Marco, and saw the Palla D’Oro, the wall of gold, with the Byzantine enamels I copied when I was young. I am jealous.)

      I’ve been seeing him for 40+ years, they are all aware, careful, and masked. I asked my DA if she brought home anything, perhaps some Murano glass? Yes, she said, a small rooster for her collection. Her daughter, however, brought back a case of Covid. A long and involved journey home, with close-by passengers hacking away. My masked DA (only surg. mask, but it seemed to have been sufficient) watched as unmasked passengers tried to pull their shirts up over their faces. She said she’d have pulled out spares to share, but they were in the overhead, and she’s vertically challenged.

      My sons’ RN pinning ceremony 2 weeks ago was another story. Nurse educators and students, family and friends, 200 plus people, it felt like I was the only mask there…

      1. Utah

        I often feel like I’m the only mask in the crowd. I haven’t had Covid, I don’t want it, but everyone around me seems to be over Covid restrictions. That said, I say next to my coworker a few weeks ago, I was in a mask and she wasn’t. Turns out her cough was Covid and wasn’t just another case of strep like she thought. I didn’t get sick, and that’s because I was masked. So, masks work!

      2. Lambert Strether Post author

        > She said she’d have pulled out spares to share,

        You would think there would be an airline policy to make them available. BWA-HA-HA-HA!!!! What am I thinking!!!!

    3. The Rev Kev

      You have to admit that it is quite remarkable to see a whole country gaslight themselves about a ‘June flu’ and refuse to think about what else it may be. I’m beginning to understand the amnesia that people developed after the Great Flu Pandemic a century ago and how it was dropped down a memory hole.

    4. Jonathan Holland Becnel

      Had a Hotel Worker friend in the French Quarter who said her whole staff got the Corona a couple weeks ago.

      Oddly enough it hasn’t shown up where I work yet…

  3. lyman alpha blob

    Anybody else think the republicans are slowly but surely making the case for going after the Big Guy?

    Hunter (Dear Hunter – is the day coming when the cylinder stops on the loaded chamber?) Biden may walk on the gun charge due to a sympathetic jury, but this is a relatively minor charge in the grand scheme of things anyway. This trial is already a success in showing beyond a doubt that his laptop is genuine.

    Now they are trying to bring a perjury case against Hunter and Jim Biden – https://jonathanturley.org/2024/06/06/garlands-moment-of-truth-with-the-perjury-referral-the-attorney-general-faces-a-clear-choice-between-principle-and-politics/ I don’t recall off the top of my head, but I think some of the evidence used for perjury might come from the laptop. And Turley’s piece notes that Tony Bobulinski’s testimony contradicts the Bidens’. Bobulinski has already testified that the “Big Guy” from the infamous “10% for the big guy” email was Joe Biden.

    If the gun trial shows the laptop was genuine, and a perjury trial can show that Bobulinski is a reliable witness, is the next step bringing charges against TraitorJoe for receiving payments from strong arming foreign actors? He is already on tape bragging about having Ukrainian prosecutors fired. I thought interfering in foreign politics was already a no-no (someone got impeached for that not long ago), but if it can be shown that Biden personally profited from said interference, he should be in big trouble.

    Perhaps the democrats jettison him at the convention hoping to avoid anyone looking into it too closely.

    1. Lambert Strether Post author

      > Anybody else think the republicans are slowly but surely making the case for going after the Big Guy?

      This has been going on for some time. Our weird idea — hat tip, Democrats — that only a quid pro quo at “money in a paper bag” level counts as corruption seems to have stymied the Government Oversight Committee; or maybe they’re biding their time.

      1. jsn

        And the quid pro quo has to be written or clearly stated in public, and recorded to count.

        It’s a unique market where contracts are explicitly forbidden, market none the less.

  4. aj

    RE: DEI
    When I worked for a Fortune 500 company, I was once on a 2-hour call that ostensibly had nothing to do with DEI, but for which the first 1.5 hours was spent on DEI. My favorite part was hearing about our progress towards “our” goal of having at least 50% women in leadership positions from our all-female HR team. As far as I know, I was the only one who found it ironic.

  5. Mark Gisleson

    After years of sticky intertubes (depending on where I was going) this week everything suddenly got much, much better. Not thru anything I or my ISP did. Just magically better, even Twitter/X where extended visits always gave me kernel panics. No longer.

    Almost as if someone was letting the dogs out…

  6. Lambert Strether Post author

    I added orts and scraps. There’s a lot, especially about Covid and bird flu (and Taylor Swift).

    Adding, whoops, fixed emergency room visits chart.

    1. Jason Boxman

      That woman is casually evil. To know full well what’s at stake and to burn everyone else. Manifest evil. That must be some music.

      1. Lambert Strether Post author

        > To know full well what’s at stake and to burn everyone else. Manifest evil

        Worse, the audience is a community that’s been following her for a good part of their lives. So the level of betrayal is extraordinary.

  7. lyman alpha blob

    RE: DEI and campus cops

    We had diversity protests at my college around 1990. I came from a state that was 99.9% white and the college was in a state that was about 99.8% white. The minority population on campus was about 11% at the time. I was meeting all kinds of people I’d never had the chance to encounter before and yet a few years in the diversity protests started, with students blocking the library, among other tactics. Barricading the library seemed like a bad idea if your aim was to allow a diverse student body to be educated, and I noticed that many of those protesting were white kids from large cities with a higher minority population. My thought was that this particular college had done a decent job of attracting a student body from different backgrounds, and if the protestors really wanted a more diverse student body than what was on offer, perhaps they could have gone to school in their home towns.

    That being said, there is something seriously wrong with universities in NYC and southern CA having only around 6% black enrollment. Last I checked the demographics, the black population was around double that nationwide, and surely even higher in urban areas. Hiring black cops looks like a fig leaf to cover up the failings of admissions departments.

    1. Robert Gray

      In the late ’70s – early ’80s, I was an undergrad at a big, famous State U in the Midwest. There was a saying that any black student you saw on campus was more likely from Africa than from our state or even the US.

  8. RoadDoggie

    Re: PEDs
    I remember, probably 20 years ago or so, as I was hitchhiking across northern new hampshire a slightly crispy dude picked me up. He was from Florida and he regaled me with stories about how he would drive the steam roller on repaving projects for 20-30 hours straight through a day and a night. And about how the super on the job would hand deliver him meth to keep him up-and-at-em. Just cause meth isn’t classified as a PED doesn’t mean it isn’t one! ha! I thought about him after reading your comment about the PMC being on PED’s(which they def are).

    Re: syndemic (rona, long rona, birbflu)
    I have at this point switched my browser tabs to the Iowa Covid Tracker, https://iowacovid19tracker.org/ as they are making an attempt at syndemic tracking and not just rona tracking, through daily updates. And they are very clear and mostly easy to read, unlike others which appear to be obfuscated on purpose.

    Fun comments on a local thread on reddit where a collective action group is offering free masks: https://www.reddit.com/r/Seattle/comments/1d9wh1q/covid_levels_are_up_time_to_mask_up_theres_a/
    Comments like these make me happy that no matter what people believe, the laws of physics will continue to apply to them, me, and all of us alike.

    Stay safe out there, if you can.

    1. digi_owl

      Heck, big finance seem to basically run on coke.

      Then again it may well be that humanity has always needed some kind of buzz to keep going, be it somatic or spiritual (or a blend of the two).

  9. Carolinian

    Re NY Post and we’re number four–the “halfback” phenomenon isn’t new but seems to be accelerating. Hilly Asheville is in the middle of a seemingly endless freeway expansion. And it’s been awhile since I went to the coast but Myrtle Beach has long since discarded it’s quaint “shag capital” vibe. We have the big hotels–just need some narcotraffickers for upcoming Myrtle Vice show.

    What fun.

    Just FYI, anyone coming here bring a raincoat.

    1. griffen

      Completely unrelated but a long time friend from high school moved his family of four to Charleston just this past January. Thus far he loves it, having left the increasingly crazy traffic just south of Atlanta. It’s likely a one time move for a rare open position as a senior pastor. Might be his last position before retirement, if I had to guess.

      Seems likely the immediate and adjacent regions to Greenville, Spartanburg, Asheville will continue growing but hopefully not like an Austin or a Dallas/Ft Worth. That’s just too much.

  10. Mikel

    “United Airlines starts serving passengers personalized ads on seat-back screens”

    What’s next? Are these desperate whores going to start handing out pillows with personalized ads? Are they even going to let you sleep without the BS?

    1. Retired Carpenter

      Ah, the question is, have they stopped breaking guitars and started serving ads, or are serving ads in addition to breaking guitars?
      Retired Carpenter
      P.S: For the younger readers, Dave Carrol’s “United Breaks Guitars” from 2009 describes United to a “U” (easy to find on boob-tube, 24 mil. + views).

      1. Big River Bandido

        I recall some excellent suggestions for a new corporate motto when United goons beat up a doctor the airline bumped after he was already in his seat:

        If you can’t beat the competition, beat the customers.

        United. We put the hospital in hospitality.

  11. polar donkey

    A friend went to Nashville for a wedding. Was eating at a restaurant and asked 10 different people working and sitting nearby if they knew of liquor store close by. All 10 said they were new to Nashville and didn’t know where things were yet.

    1. Jason Boxman

      So it’s still big. Was in 2016 as well. Already terrible traffic and unaffordable. In 2019 I met a barista in Philly that left because it’s more affordable in Philly.

      The Parthenon replica was cool. Downtown was all a paid parking lot. Most expensive parking outside NYC I swear.

      1. lambert strether

        I highly recommend Philly; it took me a couple of years to grok it, but when I did, it was great. I lived in Center City: Superb restaurants, good food markets, fine arts, highly walkable, not everything is a chain, low rent, and above all: Philly has slack. If you want the opposite of slack, Manhattan is a short Chinese bus ride away.

        Interestingly, Philly was the epicenter of political blogging c. 2002-2003; it’s where I came up (after I read about Atrios in a Paul Krugman column).

        1. Jason Boxman

          Yep. City Center was nice. I stayed at Rittenhouse Sq. All pre Pandemic. Might have moved there but that’s in the past now I guess. Did the Mint tour again after like 25 years.

  12. digi_owl

    Once more i wonder if people can be conditioned in psychopathy and/or sadism.

    Because loud cars seems far too prevalent among young men to be simply an expression of psychopathy, unless every young man is a psychopath that need to be “conditioned” to behave according to social norms. A thought that can make one freak out on its own.

    1. Mikel

      Is it psychopathy? They emphasized it was “young men”. I didn’t think psychopathy was something people matured past.

    1. CA

      Notice that labor force disability for women has risen 45.1% from January 2010 through May 2024. Labor force disability for men has risen 36.6%. The disability increases stem from January 2020.

    1. Lambert Strether Post author

      Thanks. I really need to learn FRED. Perhaps I could add some FRED charts to my table; disability is a candidate (though it would need to be updated at lewast twice a month).

      Adding, that was fun. Expanding the time-scale to maximum:

      1. Jason Boxman

        It’s worth posting these just because sometimes I wonder if I should just bash my head in. Everyone goes on like nothing is happening. But it’s even showing up in data in places it can only if it’s a population level event.

        As I’ve said for years, we’re gonna get to see what happens. That’s official policy. Yay.

        1. GramSci

          The Big Sickout. Long Covid or late stage capitalist empire? Both have diffuse symptoms.

    2. ChrisFromGA

      Interesting. I haven’t looked at Social Security disability stats in a while, but last I recall there had not been a similar rise in that.

      It is notoriously hard though to get a claim approved and can take three years. If we start seeing billboards pop up with smiling lawyers and catchphrases, we’ll know that there is a good correlation.

      Saul Goodman fights for your Disability claim!

      1. JBird4049

        >>>It is notoriously hard though to get a claim approved and can take three years. If we start seeing billboards pop up with smiling lawyers and catchphrases, we’ll know that there is a good correlation.

        It is, and it took about three years, and I finally needed a lawyer; since it is hard, and there are gotchas built into the process, which includes:
        automatically being disqualified for any paid including babysitting or dog walking,
        a permanent mailing address,
        access to a computer,
        a place to store and organized paperwork,
        to have your own medical records,
        and to go to the various medical examinations in different counties

        Mind you the process does take three years with multiple appeals, doctor’s visits, multiple state and county agency offices all without gainful employment of any kind.

        The question really should be how many people could not make it through the whole process? A process designed to prevent people from getting the help they need? Yes, almost anyone who gets approved is truly in need, but you almost certainly have walked by people sleeping on the street who should be on the pathetic, but still lifesaving, amount of SSDI or SSI. They are there because the government, both state and federal, does not want to pay for the disability and because the idea that someone might somehow is mooching is beyond horrifying. It is better to have people die than to have that happen.

        The calculations for the yearly increase never reaches the actual increase in the cost of living. But that is a different subject.

        My gut says that it is a large number of people, perhaps double, who should be on disability, but are not because reasons. But who knows?

  13. Mo

    “Our tangible world—chairs and trees and dogs and human beings—exists not “within” the universe but is made “of” the universe itself, built from the same waves that constitute space.”

    This is something I’ve felt viscerally, sometimes uncomfortably, while too high. I wonder if it is related to the loss of the self which DMT users experience

    1. jax

      “Our tangible world—chairs and trees and dogs and human beings—exists not “within” the universe but is made “of” the universe itself, built from the same waves that constitute space.”

      I’ve found this fundamentally true. In ordinary life we are so focused on survival or escapism that we perceive reality through something like tunnel vision. I’ve forgotten more than I know about the manner in which psychedelics chemically interact with our brain, but I know from experience that we enter an altered state, each different depending on the substance.

      It’s not at all unusual for psychonauts to describe the universe as ‘vibrating.’ I like to think this lovely effect, particularly jewel toned on natural substances, is the result of piercing our own veil of reality to glimpse fundamental properties.

      In any event, I treat everything as a living entity entirely meshed with a reality too big to comprehend. Some, like a rock, are vibrating at a low, slow frequency, barely detectable. Others, like elephants and us, are vibrating wildly. Hoping you’ll have a viscerally comfortable journey in the future.

      1. Mo

        Thank you Jax. It would be really trippy if taking something could allow us to perceive something very different, rooted in Physics. Seems like one of those questions which does have an answer yet which we can never be sure about.

      2. Lambert Strether Post author

        > Others, like elephants and us, are vibrating wildly.

        Not sure about wildly vibrating elephants.

        That said, the architect Christopher Alexander takes a similar view; everything is conscious, even rocks (just not very).

    2. GramSci

      Thought, as well as all those DMT squiggles, is a resonance: a wave function that “collapses” as soon as you put it in words.

      1. Lambert Strether Post author

        I believe, and here I am way out of my lane, that Bennet of the multiworlds (alternate timelines) hypothesis says that the wave function doesn’t collapse; new worlds fork off.

  14. Mikel

    “WHO recommends handwashing, but not PPE or masks, against bird flu…”

    Essentially we’re back to “discovering” there’s a problem when the devastated health care system for the masses is back to overflow and triage.
    Can’t have anything disrupt the casino.

    1. The Rev Kev

      They are going to do it again. Pretend that flu is droplet spread and recommend washing your hands so that you do not get the flu. If a Flu Pandemic kicks into gear, then it is guaranteed that it will be allowed to spread while the WHO and the CDC argues if wearing masks is dangerous or not and if distancing distances should be reduced. For the good of the economy you understand.

    1. Lena

      Recommended: Jimmie Dale Gilmore’s classic song “Just a Wave, Not the Water”

      She said babe, you’re just a wave, you’re not the water…

    2. The Rev Kev

      Yeah, we are made of the remains of stars. Elegant and poetic when you think about it.

  15. GrimUpNorth

    Thank you Lambert for your Covid coverage

    Heres some UK/Europe links for you,

    This gives us NHS total beds with covid scroll 2/3 down the page to find the only up to date file. They are now only posted monthly, so we are 6 weeks behind if we want to judge a new wave. 10-15k is when the government used to consider lockdown, currently 2k

    This gives a breakdown of European deaths broken down by country, be careful with the excess death calculations as they consider covid to be over in autumn 2023, but at least they don’t use whole of the pandemic in their baseline.
    You can infer from the charts a 1000 Israel deaths at a the start of the Hamas action, interestingly it hasn’t showed any since, I’m presuming the IDF are immortal.

    1. Bsn

      Darn, no stats on Slovenia. I think they were the ones least vaxed in Europe and promoted Ivermectin and other non vaxes. Darn.

  16. Acacia

    Maier’s photo of the boy smoking is undated but rather suggests where things are headed now.

    I.e., back to the depression era of Walker Evans.

    1. lambert strether

      Big if true. Reading Blanche’s letter, it’s based on a Facebook post, so the post would have to be authenticated.

      However, I do remember reading that Trump felt he had a “friend” on the jury, though I can’t find the link now.

      1. marym

        > “friend”

        One’s based on “body language,” the other on social media usage. Don’t know if they’re about the sam person.

        https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/trump-thought-juror-would-save-him-from-conviction-1235030249/
        https://www.forbes.com/sites/maryroeloffs/2024/05/30/the-truth-social-juror-what-we-know-trump-hush-money-trial-jury-deliberations-day-two/?sh=637142942ea4

        Anyway:

        “Looks like the Facebook user who prompted today’s letter from Judge Merchan just admitted that the whole thing was fake.”
        https://x.com/Uebey/status/1799208521294135470

        1. Carolinian

          So instead of the story actually being true it will remain (for some of us) “might as well have been true.”

          Just listening to Taibbi and Kirn go on about how some kind of Rubicon was crossed with this trial but surely that Rubicon was crossed way back in 2016 when Hillary and her henchpeople and the press alleged that Trump was a Russian secret agent.

          This latest trial was simply par for the course. Kirn is making the valid point that Trump, like Nixon, allows the ruling class to show their contempt for the ordinaries while pretending it’s all about Trump.

        2. Lambert Strether Post author

          > “Looks like the Facebook user who prompted today’s letter from Judge Merchan just admitted that the whole thing was fake.”

          Unsurprising. And doesn’t make Blanche look good with Merchan, either.

  17. IM Doc

    In regards to the above link about testosterone –

    Yes – along with Ozempic, Botox, body fillers and many others, testosterone therapy is in very high demand among men these days.

    Many of these men are legitimately very low on their testosterone levels. I have noted as an observer for decades the very common things I see with them. Most of these men are obese – with large amounts of visceral fat in the belly. This fat unfortunately makes a female hormone called estrone – and this is likely one of the suppressive causes of the low testosterone – it also unfortunately causes many of the feminine characteristics that occur to these men – very enlarged breasts, decreased genital size, and a very doughy fat deposition on the legs. I have noted also over time that many of these men are very stressed. They often do not engage in any physical activity at all, and many of them spend all day in their office cubicle or at home playing video games. The striking thing of the past 10 years is this is now affecting 20 and 30 somethings.

    I have long thought that the massive use of processed foods is to blame, the ubiquity of stress, and the boredom that many of these men face at work. Also with great regret has been the proliferation of ads showing 70 year old with a 30 year old body after testosterone therapy. What the ads do not tell people is that 70 year old bodies are not meant to look like they are 30 – and the testosterone is playing havoc with the 70 year old hearts, bone marrow, liver and brains.

    If I can get them to do it – I get these guys to avoid all processed foods at whatever cost. In this condition, I am deeply concerned as well about food packaging. They are told to avoid anything and everything lined in plastic – this includes aluminum soda cans. The medical literature tells us that men can reverse this problem as well by engaging in aggressive even violent sports – ( controlled violence) – ie punching bags, wood splitting, etc. Another issue that is very helpful is frequent intercourse with a loving partner. This is critical to maintain testosterone levels. Hanging out with the guys – and social groups – with just men – ie camping fishing hunting etc – are also shown to help. Unfortunately, our society has become so averse to many of the above that it is not an option for these men.

    Testosterone replacement therapy can be done – but must be done very carefully – polycythemia, heart failure, and liver failure are all issues with sloppy work here.

    And yes – I have also seen a massive increase in desire for this drug among the PMC – who want to be 25 year old jocks again – or those who want to be “young” forever.

    There is a deep abiding sickness in the American way of life. We have forgotten a simple fact or two – gluttony is not good – we will not live forever – and intimate life long relationships with your spouse and close social circles are critical – as is engaging constantly in manly type things. All of these deficiencies are becoming an epidemic. Masculine anything is now considered toxic and to be avoided. I assure you, there will be consequences. We are already living through many of them now. It will get much worse.

    Medicine has been thrust right in the big middle of this issue among many others – and we are ill-equipped to deal with this other than handing out toxic candy. So many of the other support systems that were available to men of the past are now just gone. I do not have any answers.

    1. Lambert Strether Post author

      > Yes – along with Ozempic, Botox, body fillers and many others, testosterone therapy is in very high demand among men these days.

      I connect this to body modification and like social media fads targeting vulnerable adolescents. The common thread to it all is that the body is a commodity*, and if you don’t like it, you can simply replace the part(s) you don’t like. Madness, but imagine the possibilities for rents. You purchase your new nose, say, but it has a chip in it, and if you don’t make your payments, the consequences are drastic. You could, for example, trade in an extra kidney to “get right” with your service provider.

      NOTE * The “natural” result of a society where the body’s labor power must be sold to survive, I would say.

  18. aleph_0

    The steroid article: I have to give a hat-tip to Neil Stevenson, who in Snow Crash, made a specific point of bringing up all of the young boys being on PEDs in his dystopia. I never really knew what to think of that detail reading it years ago, but boy does it look prescient now.

    I noticed a bunch of the high-up rich tech dorks getting super-wide and way too jacked several years ago, and now it really did catch on w everyone.

    What’s wild is that I always wondered if roids for straight boys worked like clothing for straight girls: something that’s you think you’re doing to attract the opposite sex but actually is for gatekeepers of your own sex (that may only live in your head). I’ve only met a couple of women who were into roid bodies like I’ve only met a couple of men who are into that level of fashionista.

    1. Lambert Strether Post author

      > Snow Crash

      First chapter (Y.T. is the heroine):

      The reaction is instantaneous, quick-witted by Burb standards. This person wants Y.T. gone. The van takes off like a hormone-pumped bull who has just been nailed in the ass by the barbed probe of a picador. It’s not Mom at the wheel. It’s young Studley, the teenaged boy, who like every other boy in this Burbclave has been taking intravenous shots of horse testosterone every afternoon in the high school locker room since he was fourteen years old. Now he’s bulky, stupid, thoroughly predictable.

      He steers erratically, artificially pumped muscles not fully under his control. The molded, leather-grained, maroon-colored steering wheel smells like his mother’s hand lotion; this drives him into a rage. The bimbo box surges and slows, surges and slows, because he is pumping the gas pedal, because holding it to the floor doesn’t seem to have any effect. He wants this car to be like his muscles: more power than he knows what to do with. Instead, it hampers him. As a compromise, he hits the button that says POWER. Another button that says ECONOMY pops out and goes dead, reminding him, like an educational demonstration, that the two are mutually exclusive. The van’s tiny engine downshifts, which makes it feel more powerful.

      Sounds like our foreign policy establishment. Or any of our establisments, really….

      1. aleph_0

        Basically, yeah. In addition to decadence and long covid brain damage, I start to wonder if ‘roids are especially helping our foreign and domestic policies down their strange, broken path.

  19. Skip Intro

    I believe I ‘owe’ Yves a more thorough accounting of a claim I made about research on all-cause mortality and mRNA vaccines. Better late than never, this comes from a new report on excess mortality:

    Although COVID-19 vaccines were provided to guard civilians from suffering morbidity and mortality by the COVID-19 virus, suspected adverse events have been documented as well.15 The secondary analysis of the placebo-controlled, phase III randomised clinical trials of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines showed that the Pfizer trial had a 36% higher risk of serious adverse events in the vaccine group. The risk difference was 18.0 per 10 000 vaccinated (95% CI 1.2 to 34.9), and the risk ratio was 1.36 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.83). The Moderna trial had a 6% higher risk of serious adverse events among vaccine recipients. The risk difference was 7.1 per 10 000 vaccinated (95% CI −23.2 to 37.4), and the risk ratio was 1.06 (95% CI 0.84 to 1.33).39 By definition, these serious adverse events lead to either death, are life-threatening, require inpatient (prolongation of) hospitalisation, cause persistent/significant disability/incapacity, concern a congenital anomaly/birth defect or include a medically important event according to medical judgement.39–41 The authors of the secondary analysis point out that most of these serious adverse events concern common clinical conditions, for example, ischaemic stroke, acute coronary syndrome and brain haemorrhage. This commonality hinders clinical suspicion and consequently its detection as adverse vaccine reactions.39 Both medical professionals and citizens have reported serious injuries and deaths following vaccination to various official databases in the Western World, such as VAERS in the USA, EudraVigilance in the European Union and Yellow Card Scheme in the UK.42–48 A study comparing adverse event reports to VAERS and EudraVigilance following mRNA COVID-19 vaccines versus influenza vaccines observed a higher risk of serious adverse reactions for COVID-19 vaccines. These reactions included cardiovascular diseases, coagulation, haemorrhages, gastrointestinal events and thromboses.39 49 Numerous studies reported that COVID-19 vaccination may induce myocarditis, pericarditis and autoimmune diseases.50–57 Postmortem examinations have also ascribed myocarditis, encephalitis, immune thrombotic thrombocytopenia, intracranial haemorrhage and diffuse thrombosis to COVID-19 vaccinations.58–67 The Food and Drug Administration noted in July 2021 that the following potentially serious adverse events of Pfizer vaccines deserve further monitoring and investigation: pulmonary embolism, acute myocardial infarction, immune thrombocytopenia and disseminated intravascular coagulation.39 68

    1. Bsn

      And of note “High Excess Death Rates in the West”. What about the “east” or Asia such as Uttar Pradesh in India or Slovenia in eastern Europe.

  20. kareninca

    I posted on Wednesday in the water cooler concerning an eleven year old relative who has h. pylori post covid. It is really pretty bad. It took her doctor eight months to send her to be scoped to find this out; up til that point he kept telling her that it was her ADHD or anxiety. She is on a lot of meds now. H. pylori used to be really rare in the U.S., but I am finding loads of post-covid cases online. I am not finding anyone who has come up with something that works for it; the reddit stuff I see is people trying alternative things after the pharma cure doesn’t work. The family is well off, well nourished, hand washers; they are not in any kind of h. pylori demographic (other than the covid). They have had every covid shot available, and every other vaccine offered as well.

    I head today from the grandmother; now the eight year old brother has a rash and the father has a sore throat. The mother just barely escaped colon cancer a few months ago (scoping was in time). These are not old people; they are all young. I think their immune systems are shot.

    It is important to make sure that any persistent post-covid gastric problems aren’t h. pylori, since h. pylori can cause gastric cancer.

  21. Wukchumni

    In the opinion piece I wrote last week, I warned of a looming financial crisis in the U.S. (and other Western nations) fuelled by spiralling debt, money printing and a broken political system — and that most people will be unprepared.

    Although much of the population is anxious, no one can imagine a worst-case scenario, simply because unlike my parents’ generation, our generation has never experienced the effects of a depression, hyperinflation, or war. The sad reality is that history has shown us that these cycles occur every 70 to 100 years and the patterns leading up to these crises are recognizable.

    Unlike most individuals in the West, the rest of the world is preparing for a worst-case outcome. The Ukraine and Gaza wars have split the global community into competing camps: the West and the East, the G7 and the BRICS Plus nations. The Global South is trying to stay neutral but increasingly, Russia and China are pulling ahead in the war for the hearts and minds of many poorer nations.

    https://www.thestar.com/business/opinion/why-the-u-s-is-heading-for-hyperinflation-and-what-will-happen-when-it-arrives/article_aecbb71c-187b-11ef-9557-874c8614cf9c.html?li_source=LI&li_medium=business

    1. LawnDart

      You may find this interesting:

      Putin’s 4D Chess: West ‘Losing’ War on Four Fronts After Picking Fight With Russia

      “The West is losing four wars in one – economically (in trade and debt), financially (de-dollarization and international payment systems), militarily (in Ukraine in battle and in a comparison of weapons systems) and geopolitically with a massive loss of influence around the world..”

      https://sputnikglobe.com/20240607/putins-4d-chess-west-losing-war-on-four-fronts-after-picking-fight-with-russia-1118851297.html

    2. LawnDart

      The author of your piece seems quite the gold-bug– and his reasoning resonates.

      A few years before the GFC, I opted-out of purchasing a house as what I was seeing with the valuations didn’t make sense to me: I had a funny-feeling…

      I have that same feeling today, the one that tells me that this economy is about to come apart. I really hope that it can hold together for another year or two, although I doubt that it will: I think that we have months until a black swan bites us in the butts. Maybe I should say “blackish,” because in retrospect I’m sure it’ll seem obvious to most everyone.

      If you can’t buy gold, buy silver. If you can’t buy silver, buy food. If you can’t buy food, keep your knives sharp and in mind that the rich are well-fed and their meat is tender.

      1. skippy

        Gold bugs are as old as the priests and sellers of religious iconography to make the unwashed feel they had owned a bit of divinity. Eons of humanity butchering itself for it, now today we have credit cycles. Rusted on gold bugs don’t like this as it screws with the orthodox notion of what a human is and how it thinks e.g. rational agent models i.e. gold bugs will authoritatively state with lots of ego that they are rational thinkers and any one not on there side is irrational.

  22. peter

    I have to laugh about that article where a family moves from CA to Idaho. Then it turns out that they moved to Idaho Falls. I have to say there are nice places in Idaho. I have never considered Idaho Falls to be one of them

    1. Wukchumni

      Our nutty extreme evang militia/tax evader/prepper church* up and moved to Bonner’s Ferry 5 years ago, our gain being Idaho’s gain in the bargain…

      What sort of place is Bonner’s Ferry?

      *Lordship Church, formerly Church at Kaweah

      1. Wukchumni

        p.s.

        The Church at Kaweah, an extreme right-wing fundamentalist Christian group, was founded in 1965 by Warren Lee Campbell and his wife, Margaret, near the southern edge of Sequoia National Park in California. Initially named the Kaweah Community Church, it underwent significant ideological shifts in the mid-1990s under the influence of the Patriot movement. This led Campbell to sever ties with secular authorities, notably rejecting the tax-exempt 501(c)(3) status that U.S. churches typically hold, arguing it compromised the church’s spiritual integrity. In a symbolic gesture in 1997, the church’s property was transferred to “the Lord Jesus Christ,” marking its transition to the Church at Kaweah.

        Under the leadership of Warren Lee Campbell, and later his son Warren Mark Campbell, who took over in 2008, the church developed a reputation for its controversial beliefs and practices. It is known for its militant activities, including paramilitary training, and connections to various extremist groups such as militia and Patriot movements, white supremacists, neo-Confederates, and Christian Reconstructionists. The Church at Kaweah has also hosted annual Christian History Conferences, attracting speakers from radical-right backgrounds.

        The church promotes several controversial beliefs, including the defense of slavery, opposition to gay rights, and a strict interpretation of biblical passages that critics argue is used to justify such positions. Its practices include encouraging home births, homeschooling, and “covenant marriages” without legal licenses. Additionally, the church has an “Ecclesiastical Mortuary” where members are interred on its own grounds.

        In recent years, reports indicate that the church is no longer operating out of California, but has relocated to Bonners Ferry, Idaho, with Warren Mark Campbell continuing to amplify his hate rhetoric. This rhetoric includes Holocaust denial, anti-Semitic claims, and a continued defense of slavery, stating controversial views such as slaves “loved their masters” and presenting figures like Robert E. Lee in a positive light to children​​​​​​.

        https://newreligiousmovements.org/c/church-at-kaweah/

      2. peter

        That is a good assessment of Bonners Ferry but if I recall correctly it’s still a nicer place than Idaho Falls.

  23. anon

    Gilroy, which is a farming area south of San Francisco, has had some amazing wastewater Influenza A spikes. But while all the surrounding areas have been nicely keeping up with their influenza testing, there have been no updates out of Gilroy since May 22nd: https://publichealthproviders.sccgov.org/influenza-and-rsv-report. You would think that because it is an area with cows, and because of its ongoing huge and strange spikes, that they would be especially eager to keep it kept up.

    Stanford hasn’t updated its campus wastewater covid chart since May 31st. At that point it was going vertical, but if they’ve stopped checking we won’t know how high it ever got.

    1. Lambert Strether Post author

      > It’s funny that Gilroy hasn’t updated its Influenza A wastewater chart since May 24th

      Or not funny… Do they have many CAFO operations? (Chicken, hogs, besides dairy?)

    1. Jason Boxman

      That’s exciting. They’re popular out here, in rural NC. I guess they’re affordable?

  24. Carolinian

    Doctorow can be a bit melodramatic but still.

    https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2024/06/07/cuban-missile-crisis-2-0/

    Then came the news yesterday, that Russia is dispatching the Admiral Gorshkov warship and task force to the Caribbean for exercises. The Gorshkov is not just any ship in the Russian fleet. It has been fitted with the latest Zircon nuclear capable hypersonic missiles. I imagine that from waters near Cuba its missiles could reach Washington, D.C. in five or ten minutes.

  25. Jason Boxman

    Data dies. From Iowa COVID-19 Tracker

    WastewaterSCAN took their downloadable dataset offline on 5/25/2024. The concentration data, along with averages and log transformations, will either be offline temporarily or permanently.

    1. Lambert Strether Post author

      Wowsers, CDC managed to kill off Biobot by not renewing their contract, and now WasteWaterSCAN? I hate these people so much.

      Anyhow, I might give up the unequal struggle and use CDC’s wastewater data, just to get rid of the awful feeling of flying entirely blind. Of course, this map doesn’t give us a synoptic view of the entire pandemic; that data only existed at Biobot, and now it’s not available, which is just how CDC wants it. But FWIW:

      I helpfully circled the hot spots (orange and red*). Perhaps if I run this week’s and last week’s maps together we can get some sense of a timeline. (On the actual map, the dots are clickable — you have to be very precise with your mouse, wait for a thin black outline to appear, and only then click — so you get the name of the sewershed and a little chart showing data two months back (which is, of course, miserably inadequate). So if you are lucky enough to have your wastewater system in the map, you can get some data. Or if you’re flying, you may be able to check the airports.

      NOTE * On this map, at least, CDC still uses red to mean danger, unlike the horrid shades-of-green-to-grey scale some committee came up with.

  26. Mikel

    “This is the fault of the people who think sickness makes you well.
    Anti-vaxxers. Natural immunityers. Pro-infectioners. Anti-mitigationers. Immunity Debtors. Most Peoplers. Anti-Maskers. We-Have-The-Toolers…”

    Liars about sterilizing shots.

    1. britzklieg

      Indeed.

      “I just listened to someone insist that all vaccines cause more harm than good. Here is the impact of 9 vaccines. To suggest we reintroduce these diseases by avoiding vaccines is societal amnesia and medical lunacy.”

      And I just listened to Biden claim all manner of BS full of societal indifference and full blown lunacy… “someone” is doing some heavy lifting in the above tweeted quote but at least it didn’t include the mRNA crap in that list of beneficial ones and if people, who’d previously not questioned the value of proven vaccination, are now skeptical one need look no further than to those who pushed and continue to push the mRNA vaccine-that-isn’t-a-vaccine.

      1. Lambert Strether Post author

        As I wrote: “I don’t know if, at this point, we can ever have a rational discussion of vaccines, but if we manage to achieve this, the historical record on morbidity should be taken into account.”

        I’m so sorry you had to listen to Biden. That said, did you actually read the post?

  27. Jason Boxman

    COVID?

    Maj. William A. Anders, who flew on the first manned space mission to orbit the moon, the Apollo 8 “Genesis Flight” of Christmas Eve 1968, and took the color photograph “Earthrise” credited with inspiring the modern environmental movement, died on Friday morning when a small plane he was piloting alone dived into the water near Roche Harbor, Wa., northwest of Seattle. He was 90.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/07/science/william-a-anders-dead.html

  28. skippy

    Editor’s summary

    The guts of urbanized people worldwide are known to contain less microbial biodiversity than those of humans living rurally. The worry is that the loss of key species contributes to the increasing prevalence of poor metabolic health among urbanized people. By searching for key genes involved in cellulose degradation in metagenome-assembled genomes, Moraïs et al. discovered cellulolytic bacteria in humans. All candidate Ruminococcus species assembled active cellulosomes, enzyme complexes capable of degrading microcrystalline cellulose. Three species were distinguished with phylogenies indicating derivation from primate and ruminant hosts, and they showed specific host preferences and ongoing host adaptation. The occurrence of cellulolytic bacteria in humans reveals that a complicated process of dynamic co-evolution occurs in the gut and is possibly regulated by environment. —Caroline Ash

    https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adj9223

    Oops ….

  29. XXYY

    AI = BS. None of this will ever happen. AI will not “augment” humans; that’s not how capital accumulation works. AI art will be horrid and no human artists will have any work, because AI art is “good enough,” and all those who could show what the difference is will be too impoverished to create, let alone educate.

    I really enjoyed this short rant, Lambert. Thank you for making the good point that the synergy of late stage capitalism, long covid, and AI replacement of human thought cannot be taking our species anywhere good. Far from it.

    I’ve been waiting for the AI fad to blow up, like it’s many predecessors over the last 15 years (self-driving cars, NFTs, block chains, cryptocurrency, web 3.0, AR headsets, Uber, blood transfusions, LSD microdosing, flying cars, financial derivatives of every sort, and, many more). AI seems to have really gotten a grip for whatever reason, perhaps because of a momentary dearth of idiocy since all the other fads have collapsed, or perhaps because no one has the slightest idea how AIs work technically which makes them attractive to people who like to think they are smart. Or maybe journalists and executives are just getting dumber and dumber.

    I enjoy explaining to people how AI technology works and how it cannot possibly lead to anything creative or even novel since it’s just regurgitating prior human thought. It’s very entertaining to see their facial expression as this possibility enters their mentation, perhaps for the first time.

    Anyway, keep up the fight!

  30. scott s.

    >>Trump (R) (People vs. Trump): “Vermont GOP rules bar it from promoting any candidate who is a ‘convicted felon’” [NBC]. So change the party rules.

    Actually took a look at the rules, and yup, it’s there in Rule 16, but then goes on:
    “2. The Executive Committee, by majority vote, may exempt a candidate from Rule 16-1 under extenuating circumstances.”

    Though I don’t suppose VT is a MAGA hotbed?

  31. GrimUpNorth

    illness News from the UK as requested

    This is the first month in ages that everyone seems to be well, Its has been non stop coughing, what we are calling the hundred day cough (but not hooping cough) just unable to clear the lungs. I had a nasty sore throat a month ago (but tested negative for cv19),
    Pretty much everybody I know has had covid at least twice, my brother 5 times, my parents (eighty year old) twice and me once.

    Ventilation seems to be really important, I work as a postman part time as it keeps me fit, we are in a building with a tall roof, fans and they keep the doors open, Most people don’t catch covid there, apart from the management who are in a tiny
    airless office. The main vector appears to be having kids and holidays. I fully masked N95 and gloved up until May 2022 and caught covid from a family member in August 22 9 months after my last moderna vax.

    I have to visit the hospital quite often mainly for blood tests, as I have several conditions, Im the only one masking and this has been the case for at least a year

    Really glad we only had the Oxford (astra) vax, not only because it wasnt some new experimental stuff, but the initial efficacy data showed as low as 55% (although it did improve with multiple shots) on catching covid, so our stupid government couldn’t justify mandating it.

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