Links 6/21/2024

Baby moose trapped in a lake is saved by Alaska man and police as its worried mom watches AP

Stonehenge solstice sunrise attracts 15,000 people BBC

Crisis memory, geopolitics and the risks of financial contagion Gillian Tett, FT

Climate

Relatives search for missing in Saudi Arabia as hajj death toll tops 900 France24

Heatwave in Mexico claims lives of more than 150 since March France24

Why some scientists think extreme heat could be the reason people keep disappearing in Greece CNN

India heatwave sparks spate of fires, ignites calls for stricter safety regulation enforcement Channel News Asia. Commentary:

NCR = National Capital Region (India).

Bats drop dead from trees in Kanpur due to extreme heatwave India Today

* * *

Economist suggests storing grain to prepare for next global emergency Guardian

* * *

Occasional paper: Fungal banking Crooked Timber

Book Review – Eat, Poop, Die: How Animals Make Our World The Inquisitive Biologist

Water

What happens if we break the Colorado River? Salt Lake Tribune

Syndemics

The destruction of public health and the growing threat of an H5N1 bird flu pandemic WSWS

Human SARS-CoV-2 challenge uncovers local and systemic response dynamics Nature

China?

Xi Jinping’s mystery PBoC plans surface with biggest shift in years Business Standard

China aims to solve property puzzle with affordable housing push, but debt cloud remains South China Morning Post

* * *

South China Sea: Philippines advised to stake claim on disputed shoal with civilian site South China Morning Post

Philippines secretly reinforces ship at centre of South China Sea dispute FT

Putin, Kim and new multipolar world. Sullivan, striking Russia is common sense. Conflict in Lebanon (video) Alex Christoforou, YouTube. See at 8:30.

The Koreas

‘We’ll continue our struggle’: South Korea’s doctor strike crisis deepens as more join walkout Channel News Asia

Hanwha strikes $100m deal for Philly Shipyard Splash 247

Could CIA Sabotage North Korean Arm Shipments to Russia? Spy Talk

Inside the Success of South Korean Brands Harvard Business Review

Vietnam’s ‘bamboo diplomacy’ triumphs with visits from Biden, Xi and now Putin FT

Putin’s State Visit to Vietnam karlof1’s Geopolitical Gymnasium

Five Decades On, Cambodia Is Taking Ownership of Its Troubled Past The Diplomat

Syraqistan

Endless War, Not ‘Total Victory’: IDF Wants to Leave Gaza, but Netanyahu Has Other Ideas Haaretz. Commentary:

IDF transfers powers in occupied West Bank to pro-settler civil servants Guardian

The U.S. power structure is blindly dedicated to Israel Mondoweiss

Apologies Sir Atrios, Eschaton

European Disunion

French women voters swing sharply to far right Politico

Why the Greens are losing in the EU and what Ukraine should learn from it European Pravda

EU cancels vote on child sexual abuse law amid encryption concerns Politico

Dear Old Blighty

The Leaving of Blackburn Craig Murray

Sunak may sanction UK youth if they refuse compulsory national service Al Mayadeen

New Not-So-Cold War

Zelensky’s peace summit flop The Spectator

* * *

US says Ukraine can hit inside Russia ‘anywhere’ its forces attack across the border Politico. Caption: “‘This is not about geography. It’s about common sense,’ national security adviser Jake Sullivan told PBS.”

U.S. will boost Ukraine’s air defense by pausing exports to allies WaPo

* * *

EU Ambassador: “The ‘foreign agents’ law has frozen Georgia’s European integration” JAM News

Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan & China: When is a done deal really done? BNE Intellinews

Digital Watch

This Week in AI: Generative AI is spamming up academic journals TechCrunch

Neo-Nazis Are All-In on AI Wired

Hackers ‘jailbreak’ powerful AI models in global effort to highlight flaws FT

Meta warns bit flips, other hardware faults cause AI errors The Register

The Bezzle

Ditching paper money has made Sweden a haven for online scams Straits Times

Fast Crimes at Lambda School Sandofsky

Supply Chain

Transhipment ports challenged by changes in call patterns amid the Red Sea crisis Hellenic Shipping News

Liberia blocks Russia’s Ingosstrakh from insuring ships in move against sanctions-busting “shadow fleet” BNE Intellinews

Healthcare

Drug Shortages Keep Growing. Older, Injectable Agents Are Among the Most Vulnerable. MedPage Today

The Final Frontier

Cosmic kidney disease: an integrated pan-omic, physiological and morphological study into spaceflight-induced renal dysfunction Nature. From the Introduction:

The renewed zeitgeist for space travel, ushered in by the advent of commercial spaceflight and tourism, has spurred on state-funded agencies to embark on even more ambitious exploratory ‘Deep Space’ missions. The first of these, namely the Artemis Program, Lunar Gateway space station and later the Deep Space Transport/Mars Missions, will for the first-time place humans outside of Earth’s protective magnetic field exposed to significant quantities of unmitigated space radiation and weightlessness for many months to years at a time.

The health effects of low Earth orbit (LEO) spaceflight (e.g. the International Space Station) are multiple, with much of the research communities’ intense focus centred on the musculoskeletal, neurological, ocular and cardiovascular degeneration that can manifest as early as a few weeks into a mission. Notably, the effects of LEO spaceflight on many other organ systems are less clear, with indispensable organs such as the kidneys receiving relatively little attention in the absence of overt symptoms. However, in the face of extended periods of deep space travel health issues may only present with late onset due to cloaked subclinical pathophysiology and chronic damage eating into the extensive functional reserves of such organs.

This Revolutionary New Observatory Will Locate Threatening Asteroids and Millions of Galaxies Smithsonian

Class Warfare

America’s Sweethearts Is a Surprisingly Infuriating Portrait of the Ultimate Pink-Collar Job TIme

High Expectations The Baffler

‘These Stores Are Unhealthy for Our Communities’: FAIR

Bella Baxter and the Machine: On Yorgos Lanthimos’s “Poor Things” and Julie Wosk’s “Artificial Women” LA Review of Books

Listen To Your Own Soul’s Warning Daily Stoic

Antidote du jour (Harald Wehner):

Bonus antidote:

See yesterday’s Links and Antidote du Jour here.

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About Lambert Strether

Readers, I have had a correspondent characterize my views as realistic cynical. Let me briefly explain them. I believe in universal programs that provide concrete material benefits, especially to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime example, but tuition-free college and a Post Office Bank also fall under this heading. So do a Jobs Guarantee and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can deliver on such programs, because the two are different flavors of neoliberalism (“Because markets”). I don’t much care about the “ism” that delivers the benefits, although whichever one does have to put common humanity first, as opposed to markets. Could be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don’t much care, as long as the benefits are delivered. To me, the key issue — and this is why Medicare for All is always first with me — is the tens of thousands of excess “deaths from despair,” as described by the Case-Deaton study, and other recent studies. That enormous body count makes Medicare for All, at the very least, a moral and strategic imperative. And that level of suffering and organic damage makes the concerns of identity politics — even the worthy fight to help the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton’s wars created — bright shiny objects by comparison. Hence my frustration with the news flow — currently in my view the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the other by out-of-power liberals and their allies in the State and in the press — a news flow that constantly forces me to focus on matters that I regard as of secondary importance to the excess deaths. What kind of political economy is it that halts or even reverses the increases in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I am also very hopeful that the continuing destruction of both party establishments will open the space for voices supporting programs similar to those I have listed; let’s call such voices “the left.” Volatility creates opportunity, especially if the Democrat establishment, which puts markets first and opposes all such programs, isn’t allowed to get back into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I love the tactical level, and secretly love even the horse race, since I’ve been blogging about it daily for fourteen years, but everything I write has this perspective at the back of it.

167 comments

  1. The Rev Kev

    “EU Ambassador: “The ‘foreign agents’ law has frozen Georgia’s European integration” ‘

    That say that like it is a bad thing. These days being a member of the EU is too much like being in Hotel California – but with a bunch of maniacs in charge. This whole fracas is about Georgia’s foreign agents but they are not alone. The US has had one since the late 1930s. Canada is preparing to institute one and even the EU is preparing to do the same – the same entity that wants to sanction Georgia for doing so. Of course this is allowed under the Rules Based Order. Georgia just had a bullet dodge.

    1. ChrisFromGA

      I’m puzzled why Hungary hasn’t made more noise about leaving the EU. They have their own currency, so it’s definitely do-able.

      I suppose that Orban sees it as better to be “inside the tent” and keep his enemies close. Having the forint gives him some power that, say, Lithuania doesn’t have.

      1. Captain Obvious

        You should pay attention to the map. Hungary, and Serbia, and Slovakia, are surrounded. You can’t make noise about leaving if you are locked up.

        1. ChrisFromGA

          Yes, they need a land bridge to Russia and the Black Sea… maybe Orban is keeping his options open. I hear that one might open up in a few years.

        2. flora

          Slovakia’s Prime Minister Fico suffered an assassination atempt last month. He’s been critical of several EU demands on immigration, the Ukr war, and health policies. Probably a coincidence.

    2. CA

      So that I finally understand. The US uses NGOs to influence, control and undermine foreign governments, such as the government of Hong Kong. When a government wants to limit subversive NGO efforts in a country, the NGOs pay people to attack the government in question. So NGOs unrelentingly attacked the government of Hong Kong until they were closed down.

      1. Expat2uruguay

        I think this also extends into cases like Venezuela which is holding an election but they’ve outlawed a couple of candidates. Could it be that these candidates are much like the NGOs that try to forment color revolutions?

  2. zagonostra

    >Listen To Your Own Soul’s Warning – Daily Stoic

    We are not so different from Seneca, though hopefully we have less blood on our hands. We all need to do better at listening to our soul’s warning. No one is saying we have to be perfect saints, that’s not possibly and probably not even worth trying. We do need to draw clearer lines though and be willing to walk away when people and events cross them. We become like the people we associate with, which is why we must choose our bosses (and our industries) carefully.

    I don’t know who this “we” is but he/she seems to be in every sentence. I think I know maybe 2 people in my life who are like Seneca. I didn’t kill anyone, I don’t have blood on my hands, is this like original sin? I don’t know about you but my internal moral sensibility makes itself heard loud and clear and lets me know when I F’up. I “walked away” from a good friend of many years over his disgusting views on Zionist genocide. I wish I could choose my “bosses” carefully, but I need the paycheck. I ended up in my line of work by chance, not much care really went into it and just got lucky.

    For a “philosophical” article it sure seemed less than enlightening…maybe the Daily Stoic can watch the recent Piers Morgan and Jeffery Sachs interview and talk about what Nicholas of Cusa referred to as “learned ignorance.”

    https://youtu.be/mULVrUGh6wo?si=VBtKhchtEXGxVquT

    1. Alice X

      Thanks, I find Piers Morgan rather annoying, though at least he lets Sachs speak at length. The Brits too often forget that they taught the Americans some of the finer points of the treacheries of empire.

    2. Washington Woman

      To me there is something psychologically disturbing about people who are attracted to stoicism. Many of the men I meet seem to use it to protect themselves from their greed and hedonism because as they believe; “health, wealth, and pleasure, are not good or bad in themselves”. Or it is used so they can drown out the voices of people who are suffering in this horrible economy. I am an attractive woman living near Seattle making an OK living in the service industry so you can imagine the interactions I have.

      I think I am seeing more about stoicism because it is being promoted by the wealthy because want us poor to be stoics so they will shut up while they go on getting rich and exploiting the world.

      1. Amfortas the Hippie

        aye.
        i see all that as faux stoicism,lol.
        pseudolibertardians larping seneca….using it as a sort of feathered shell to hide their avarice and tinymindedness…as well as ther deep down fears of Not Measuring Up.

        Real Stoicism, otoh, is about endurance, forbearance and just dealing with shit as it comes…and attempting to not let any of it change one’s fundamentals…be they moral, philosophical, whatever.
        those faux stoics would be crushed under the weight of even a tiny portion of my life story.

        1. i just don't like the gravy

          those faux stoics would be crushed under the weight of even a tiny portion of my life story.

          Exactly. OP wrote she is near Seattle, which at this point is so infested with tech bros you’d need to call pest control. It’s easy to be a stoic when your stock options keep going up in this fake economy.

          Throw them onto Mt. Rainier and see how stoic they are when ChatGPT can’t wipe their ass.

      2. lyman alpha blob

        In philosopher John Gray’s book Feline Philosophy: Cats and the Meaning of Life, he dismisses most philosophical schools and points out how you’d be better of learning to live a good life from your cat.

        On stoicism, he notes (paraphrasing and going by memory here) that grinning and bearing what life throws at you might be fine if you’re an emperor like Marcus Aurelius, but it doesn’t work nearly as well if you are a poor person who doesn’t know where your next meal is coming from.

        1. Retired Carpenter

          re:“learning to live a good life”
          lab;
          OK, but what is “a good life“?
          Also, “if you are a poor person who doesn’t know where your next meal is coming from“, you might have no choice but to ” bear what life throws at you” with, or w/o, a grin, whether you identify yourself as a “Stoic” or not.

        2. ArvidMartensen

          Perhaps a better slogan is to be true to good values, but fight for yourself and yours when others less honorable try to scam, enslave and exploit you.

          ‘Turn the other cheek’ has always been a slogan used by the strong to get away with whatever they want with no consequences

        3. Solar Hero

          Well you need to account for the slave Epictetus then. Stoicism’s appeal has always been that its two greatest proponents are a Roman Emperor and a Greek slave.

      3. Vicky Cookies

        I have often thought the same of mindfulness and lite-buddhism, that it’s promoted because it is compatible with living a miserable, short life without complaint or protest. Philosophies, to paraphrase Marx, describe the world; the point is to change it.

        1. AhMòStoBene

          I see where you’re coming from and you’re surely right that McMindfulness has a planned role in neutering opposition to an unjust system. But there remains a contradiction: Stoicism and Buddhism teach living in a way that accepts death too; revolutionaries must overcome their fear of death (real and figurative) to embark down that road. Tune in, drop out!

  3. griffen

    “Summer, it’s like a merry go round…gotta hold on you tonight…oh oh it’s magic, when I’m with you…”

    First day of summer, welcome to the heat dome. There will be plenty of sun today, it’s the longest sunny day of the year. Checks calendar…okay it was yesterday but near enough for agency work or inspection at a Boeing factory nonetheless.

  4. The Rev Kev

    “Sunak may sanction UK youth if they refuse compulsory national service”

    ‘citizenship brings with it obligations as well as rights.’

    Mighty tall talk from Rishi Sunak when he is rumoured to be leaving the UK and moving to his $7.2 million beach home in Santa Monica, California when he loses the UK election in less that a fortnight’s time. President Joe Biden even joked about it saying last year – ‘I want to welcome you back to California – he’s a Stanford man, and he still has a home here in California. That’s why I’m being very nice to you, maybe you can invite me to your home in California.’

    https://www.rt.com/news/599644-sunak-california-beach-home/

    1. Benny Profane

      The whole argument that only a minority of those conscripted will serve in the military, everyone has a public service option, reminds me of the Twilight Zone “It’s a cook book!” episode.

    2. flora

      I left my comment below before reading yours.

      In the the last third of the recent Tucker Carlson – Neil Oliver interview (long), Oliver says he thinks the West changed after WWII because the banks – the big central banks and big investment banks – basically took over the West. The big banks only focus on money; money is the only real, important thing to the big banks. Not countries, not nations, not people, not place. That thinking has infected politics. (Or bought politics.) It’s an interesting argument. If Rishi restarts a UK draft for service and then leaves for the US himself, well, he was a Goldman Sachs investment banker and a hedge fund partner. All the world’s an investment opportunity. / ;)

    1. griffen

      I can’t speak much or at any length about his earlier films, but he tended to bring some gravitas ( perceived or real ) in his later roles. It’s a remake but I’ll rewatch the Italian Job where his character is dispatched very quickly but a jealous, envious Ed Norton (heck they had just looted a lot of gold so a low bar among thieves).

      If one suggested that the above film featuring Charlize Theron playing his daughter is a good reason to watch again, I couldn’t disagree.

      1. sarmaT

        That Italian Job is crap in every way. Rewatch the original one. For Sutherland himself, rewatch MASH and Kelly’s Heroes. For Norton, rewatch American History X. For Theron, rewatch Monster. For hot daughters playing, rewatch PornHub.

    2. Lena

      “Don’t Look Now” (1973), with Julie Christie as costar, is my favorite Donald Sutherland movie. Haunting and beautifully filmed. Highly recommended if you have never seen it.

    3. Amateur Socialist

      I will be rewatching 1993’s Six Degrees of Separation this weekend. The character arc that takes place in his portrayal of Flan Kittredge is not to be missed. A fine film greatly improved by his work.

  5. Benny Profane

    Man, if only our furry cat would enjoy a vacuum like that after being outside in the bushes all day.

      1. Paleobotanist

        Our furballs view the vacuum as Satan incarnate and go hide whenever it is out.

        1. mrsyk

          Ditto. Am I wrong seeing a mini carpet beater attachment being used in the video??? It would seem that Twilight has quite the personality.

          1. t

            Video is mute – I suspect it’s not on. But who knows. Cats are cats.

            More and more people are walking cats with leashes, these days, and YouTube is full of cats enjoying a pool or the beach.

  6. Joker

    Economist suggests storing grain to prepare for next global emergency Guardian

    In the paper, Weber and colleagues call for the creation of buffer stocks of grain that could be released during shortages or emergencies to ease price pressures.

    A revolutionary idea. Controversial and bold authors deserve Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences.

    1. griffen

      Straight outta Egypt and the Biblical tale of Joseph prediction of a period of feast followed by famine. Where would we be in life without such expert thought ? \sarc

      Next they’ll suggest the US Federal Government sends out a can opener to every American household, for the benefit of our personal economy and a necessity for survival. But they’ll ship more than just a can opener to our “allies and friends” in the Ukraine and elsewhere!

        1. Joker

          Speaking of things that need to be in national reserve, here’s an old news item:

          https://www.theguardian.com/food/2019/apr/10/switzerland-plans-to-end-emergency-stockpiling-of-coffee
          Switzerland has announced plans to abolish the emergency stockpiling of coffee, a strategy that has been in place for decades, saying the beans are not vital for human survival – though opposition to the proposal is brewing.
          Nestlé, the maker of instant coffee Nescafé, and other importers, roasters and retailers are required by Swiss law to store bags of raw coffee. The country also stockpiles staples such as sugar, rice, edible oils and animal feed.

          1. The Rev Kev

            I smell a dodgy deal between Nescafé and the Swiss government so that that corporation can sell more coffee for more profit. This is definitely not the Switzerland that I lived in several times back in the 80s.

            1. mrsyk

              This is definitely not the Switzerland that I lived in several times back in the 80s. Yeah. Where’s the stockpile of Bon Ami?

        2. griffen

          There’s plenty of good everyday common sense to go around* I believe, just that it seems scarce where our country needs it most…halls of the Congress, 1600 Pennsylvania, many state houses…Wall Street once embraced the insanity of tech stocks circa 2001 so surely they’re not gonna repeat those errors with AI…

          *that said things could get highly unsettled and chaotic circa January 2025…no matter which doddering old white man has won our national beauty contest I mean Presidential election.

      1. Belle

        Confucius had a similar idea too, from what I recall.
        As for the USA, it was Henry A. Wallace (citing both Confucius and Joseph) who pushed for it to be a US policy, calling it the “Ever Normal Granary”.
        No word if it’s been gutted since.

  7. Joker

    Philippines secretly reinforces ship at centre of South China Sea dispute FT

    At first it sounds like they’ve sent some soldiers and big guns. Nope.

    “China accuses Manila of bringing construction materials to reinforce the ship and prevent it from breaking apart and coming off the reef — which Manila denies.”

    Philippines fight China with WD-40, while India fights China with sticks (https://edition.cnn.com/2022/12/14/asia/india-china-border-tensions-video-intl-hnk/index.html). In order to have real bloodshed, one needs US advisors.

  8. Ghost in the Machine

    “Since 2020, coinciding with the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, H5N1 has quickly spread among dozens of species, including wild birds and poultry, cats, sea lions, polar bears, and, most recently, dairy cattle and house mice in the US, with hundreds of millions of animals estimated to have died or been culled globally.”

    This from the WSWS article on public health and H5N1. We know Covid infects many animals also, usually not fatally it seems. Does it damage their immune systems also. How conserved is ace2 in the animal kingdom? Has our self inflicted pandemic started a catastrophe even greater than the long covid grinding down of public health? Maybe nemesis has already arrived and is working through the human industrial civilization (and other species). Just not on the rapid timescale of a disaster movie.

    1. Lena

      H5N1 seems to be quite deadly for cats. I read that the FDA allows poultry (and possibly beef?) from infected species to be used in cat food. My elderly cat loves her Fancy Feast Chicken Paté. I worry about her because her health is already fragile. She is an inside cat only.

      1. J.

        Canned food is cooked during the canning process, which would inactivate any viruses in the chicken.

        My cats are also fans of Fancy Feast Chicken Paté.

    2. Washington Woman

      I have question for people who might know about viruses spreading to humans. Right now we are seeing all these animals getting sick fro H5N1. Why did we not see the same with SARS2 before it was able to mutate into humans? Should we have not seen at least something in animals? I have read that it is hard to catch SARS2 from animals, so how did it mutate from bats to humans so quickly?

      But shouldn’t we have seen something in at least primates? It seems that H5N1 is acting much differently than SARS2. Sorry, confused.

      1. Ghost in the Machine

        This is one of the pieces of evidence for a lab leak. No intermediate host has been found unlike SARS 1 and MERS. There is also a lack of genetic diversity in the original strain of Covid that you wouldn’t expect from a virus that jumped from animal to human, also unlike SARS 1 and MERS. There would’ve been a sort of mutation, genetic struggle to make that jump that should have been evident in the various samples of virus genome. It is suggested that it came from bats, but the original strain of Covid and subsequent strains do not infect bats very well, so it could not have jumped directly from bats. Covid ‘came out of nowhere,’ almost perfectly adapted to humans, relatively genetically uniform, no trace of intermediate hosts, away from the natural range of bats, and during the wrong season. But right next to one of the rare labs studying dangerous coronaviruses. With a scientist who studied with an American scientist known for inserting furin cleavage sites into viruses which happens to be the biggest genetic mystery of Covid. I don’t even think they are bothering looking for the host anymore, but I am not sure about that.

  9. Wukchumni

    What happens if we break the Colorado River? Salt Lake Tribune
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    Will the first climate change diaspora in the USA come thanks to the Colorado River?

    Would it be similar to climate change that doomed many Native Americans in the approximate same surroundings 900 years ago?

    Craig Childs is a fine writer in regards to the southwest, and his House of Rain explores where the environmental expulsion took them, after the lack of deluge~

    1. Benny Profane

      It’s not climate change. It’s overuse. When Powell made his first journey down into the Grand Canyon in 1869, the maps for that region were blank. Now you have an atrocity like Las Vegas sucking enormous amounts of water out of Lake Mead for “artistic” fountain displays and tens of thousands of pools. And that’s just one example. Millions and millions of people, and tons of farms in the desert, use that water, and the numbers are still growing.

      1. Wukchumni

        Indeed, its woefully oversubscribed, and yet we couldn’t get to the state of the river system as it is now without climate change calling the shots (which are then largely ignored-everybody needs water to go on living, making profits-the usual) and is so different from the way water is parceled out here in Cali.

        Every drop of water that goes by me is destined for agriculture, and if the water isn’t there, Ag gets cut off toot suite from the largess. There isn’t a grand consortium of users extending nearly from Canada to Mexico, as there is with the Colorado.

        1. The Rev Kev

          I’m wondering what will happen when the Colorado river really runs low. How do they settle who gets the remaining water? I’m sure that Big Ag will demand that water for their own crops while Las Vegas says that they need it for drinking water (and maybe the fountains). Both will go running to Congress to make it law that they get it all but I m sure that they will find that though Congress can print dollars till the cows come home, that they can’t print water. Expect there to be talk about water pipelines from Alaska and Canada to the American SW.

          1. Carolinian

            Seems the most recent Fed govt pronouncement was for the states to force a change or they would. My property rights don’t amount to much if I don’t pay my taxes and there’s no reason for water rights to be any more sacred.

            But that assumes the Federals can get their act together which is a big ask. In the end it may be the old “when a man knows he is going to be executed in a fortnight it concentrates the mind.”

          2. Benny Profane

            There is a long standing agreement between all the states using the water that has not been court tested because it hasn’t had to be, but, we’re on the edge of somebody being denied water due to low levels at Hoover Dam, and that’s when the fun starts. They’ve been talking and supposedly negotiating for a few years now, but I haven’t read of any modifications to the original pact. Expect a possible regional war of things get bad. There’s a lot of guns out there.

            There has been a fantastical plan to build a pipeline from the Great lakes to the southwest. Maybe we’ll contract that one out to the Chinese. They’re good at that sort of thing. Of course, a wiser solution is just to repopulate Detroit and upstate NY. But that’s not gonna happen.

            1. The Rev Kev

              That stupid film “Civil War” that came out not long ago? Perhaps it would have been more believable if it had taken place in the SW and it was all about a water war between the States. That I could believe.

              1. ChrisFromGA

                There was one aspect of that otherwise really bad film that I liked – it showed journalists taking incredible risks to get the true picture of the war out.

                Contrast that with our coddled, corporate stooge media here in the US. They all sit in comfortable cafes in Paris, London, and DC and “rip and read” Ukrainian Pravda propaganda, or better yet, just go straight to the source and take their leads from the CIA or State Dept. A kneepad press.

                Meanwhile, here is a sample of some work from a real on the ground reporter who puts his own skin on the line – Patrick Lancaster

                https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pBs49d4gvvE

                1. Daniil Adamov

                  I actually got around to watching it recently (it’s called “Fall of the Empire” in Russia, by the way, heh) and thought it was alright. Then again, I don’t watch many films, so my taste isn’t particularly calibrated. A lot of people seemed put out by its absurd political scenario, but I’m pretty sure it was never intended as serious commentary on modern day real world American politics. The military scenario also wasn’t worth thinking about. But I think it did do a good job of capturing some of the texture of a civil war: assorted mundane awfulness and collapse punctuated by sudden, often apparently meaningless and anticlimactic violence. That one town where they pretended nothing was happening reminded me of how many parts of Russia were during our civil war. It did a pretty good job of selling a “heroic ideal” of war journalism as well. That may not be a bad thing if it makes some people think about what journalism is supposed to look like.

              2. Belle

                There was a short story by C.M. Kornbluth entitled “The Luckiest Man in Denv”, which took place in a world where Denver and LA were at war. I won’t spoil it, but water was a factor at one time. One person realized it…but changing things would change the system…

              1. jrkrideau

                I am sure Mexico will love the idea.

                Just how energy intensive is desalination? I’ve seen large desalination plants in Saudi Arabia but the energy needed was probably just gas that otherwise Aramco would have flared off.

          3. mrsyk

            I’m wondering what will happen when the Colorado river really runs low Pretty sure geographic positioning and guns will be determining who gets what at this point.

          4. Utah

            My local politicians think we should build a pipeline of ocean water to the Great salt lake because it’s drying up, so my first guess is pipeline, too.

            Lake Powell will get drained first, then Flaming Gorge is my guess. Lake Mead holds Southern California’s water, it will drain last.

            My politicians also like to point out that Utah doesn’t use all of its water and we can if we want to. It’s like we’re trying to strong arm the other states because we see it 1st/2nd/3rd. I don’t think we should be growing hay, alfalfa, lettuce, etc, but those are the main crops of Utah, Nevada, and Arizona. Expect little farmers to go under first, then the giant corporations. Expect dust. Desertification.

            But you can’t make people move. I’ve tried to get my partner to leave. But her family is here. Which means we stay. Salt Lake City doesn’t get it’s water from the Colorado River, but we are also on a water catastrophe precipice.

            1. Carolinian

              think we should build a pipeline

              LDS has deep pockets? Hope that we doesn’t mean me.

              In Cadillac Desert one mentioned plan was to pipe it down from Canada. Obviously fresh water is needed. Because it would have to be pumped over mtns this would cost $$$

              But that was back in the America can do anything glow of the fifties with its enthusiasm for government projects. Also Canada might object.

              I say ditch the farmers. What Wesley Powelll really meant no doubt was that the West is unsuitable for agriculture. Bring the farms back East and we’ll send you the houses.

          5. inchbyinch

            It’s likely that Zionist Jews will elbow their way to the front of the line, because Israel has a right to the Colorado River’s last few drops, because a billion,billion years ago a Jew wrote that down in a book that 😏 told him to write.

        2. Pat

          It isn’t the Colorado, but awake up for me was Michener’s Centennial, which contains a fictional report about the South Platte/Platte river basin and water use. It was published in the mid seventies, and from memory most of the issues, problems and abuses and their results from it could be fairly accurate with just replacing Platte with Colorado.
          I grew up in NM, my grandparents depended on well water. The Rio Grande went from being a river with low periods to being a series of streams most of the time. And from my perspective the decimation of river basins in the Southwest is maybe 15% climate change and 85% overuse. Over population, Golf Courses, lawns, personal pools and water heavy agriculture were and are devastating to the system.

          1. Wukchumni

            Flying over the southwest yesterday, the one thing I could make out in the barrenness of the lay of the land below me was center-pivot irrigation, with its unmistakable pattern of a giant circle, crop circle that is.

          2. Carolinian

            The West has always been ripe for exploitation by all sorts of people. Edward Abbey said that Arizona used to be mostly covered with grass (some of it still is) and that ranchers and over grazing turned it into desert. So blame it on the cows.

            The Monkey Wrench Gang came out decades ago as did Cadillac Desert. But perhaps the public mood plays a big role and those books came out of a more environmentally activist time–pre Reagan. Abbey did enjoy making fun of the Mormons who, needless to say, played a big role in the politics and development of Phoenix (their temple is in Mesa). Trying to put all this into the context of recent politics is little more than spin since, like you say, these debates have been going on for a long time.

        1. Katniss Everdeen

          Golf courses? How about “chip” factories?

          The proposed funding would give TSMC’s Arizona subsidiary up to $6.6 billion in direct funding and a potential $5 billion in loans under the CHIPS Act.

          The company is investing more than $65 billion in three cutting-edge fabrication plants in Arizona, aligning with the semiconductor priorities of the Biden administration.

          https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/08/tsmc-set-to-receive-up-to-6point6-billion-in-funding-for-arizona-plants-.html

          These factories require tremendous amounts of “pristine” water, meaning not recycled after human use, but supposedly the chipmakers can make it “potable” again after they get the first crack at it.

          And hasn’t there been rapturous jubilation over the discovery of a giant lithium deposit in Nevada? According to various sources, lithium mining requires approximately 500,000 gallons of water to produce one ton of lithium. And it comes out as “brine.”

          I think the federalis have made it pretty clear where their priorities lie.

          1. Screwball

            From the article you linked from CNBC:

            The funding, under the U.S. CHIPS and Science Act, will support Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.’s more than $65 billion investment in three cutting-edge fabrication plants in Phoenix, according to the nonbinding agreement.

            Ok, smart ass hat on. I admit up front I might be missing something, but as I read this – we are supporting a Taiwanese company to the tune of $65 billion for 3 plants in Phoenix (as well as an Intel plant mentioned by Carolinian in the post below).

            Last I looked, Phoenix is in the middle of a desert. These plants use a bunch of water, which is already in shortage in desert area’s – hence why they are called a desert.

            $65+ billions to foreign companies to build plants that need millions of gallons of water in the middle of a desert.

            Somebody make it make sense.

            1. Benny Profane

              I wish.

              Especially when there’s so much water next to Detroit. Gee, ya think…unions?

          2. GF

            Golf courses in AZ mostly are required to use reclaimed sewer water – better than using it for drinking I suppose. Golf courses use about a million gallons a day in the desert areas and there are hundreds of them. The chip factories are looking to use very highly treated sewer effluent but I don’t know if that will pan out. Currently the entire volume of treated wastewater from the west Phoenix sewage treatment plants goes to cool the reactors at the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station west of Phoenix which uses 60,000 gallons per minute during summer months:
            https://cronkitenews.azpbs.org/2020/02/25/palo-verde-nuclear-water-use/

      2. CA

        ‘It’s not climate change. It’s overuse. When Powell made his first journey down into the Grand Canyon in 1869, the maps for that region were blank. Now you have an atrocity like Las Vegas sucking enormous amounts of water out of Lake Mead for “artistic” fountain displays and tens of thousands of pools…’

        Perfect and really important. The lack of national planning in water conservancy matters is a severe problem, but that is not what we do as New Deal thinking is set aside.

      3. Eclair

        Perhaps if the US Senators and Congressmen had listened to John Wesley Powell when he told them, in 1890, that there was not enough water west of the 100th Meridian (with the exception of the Western coastal region) to support agriculture (or large cities), we would not be in this bind.

        And, moreover, state boundaries should be drawn based on watersheds, not on political whims or a need for orderly lines.

        Alas, a prophet is without honor in his (or her) own country.

    2. SocalJimObjects

      What happens? Well ChatGPT gets first dibs no matter what. Heck, I am surprised the Tribune did not put that question up to the Mightiest Intelligence in the Universe.

  10. The Rev Kev

    “Could CIA Sabotage North Korean Arm Shipments to Russia?”

    Doing a sabotage campaign in Russia has been a thing for years now, using dissident Russians or Ukrainians as well. Senior officers went to Putin last year to demand that Russia start a sabotage campaign in the US as payback but he turned them down. He said ‘Look at the ongoing disaster of the East Palestine rail crash, those deadly fires in Maui last year, the massive amount of homelessness in their streets, the crippling inflation rates, the high costs of living, their colossal debts. I ask you – what could we possibly do that would be worse than what they are doing to themselves?’

    1. mrsyk

      Perhaps that headline should read Will CIA’s Effort to Sabotage North Korean Arms Shipments to Russia Bear Fruit? This of course brings the question How bitter is that fruit gonna be?

      1. Aleric

        I thought it was ironic that the article slipped into an example of probably the only sort of sabotage that the US is capable of since China rolled up its agent network a few years ago. Spreading disinformation as rumors, like saying that the shells were defective and only used to kill civilians.

    2. Kouros

      I laughed at this segment: “But it’s not going to happen anytime soon, if ever, during a Biden administration that’s shown itself to be exceedingly cautious about riling Russia and a risk-averse CIA”. As if blowing up NS1 & NS2, the biggest industrial sabotage in the world, did not happen.

      However, sabotaging NK won’t be easy. If it were as easy as with Iran, they would definitely have done many dastardly deeds before.

  11. Joker

    Liberia blocks Russia’s Ingosstrakh from insuring ships in move against sanctions-busting “shadow fleet” BNE Intellinews

    …three Liberian-flagged vessels are affected…

    1. mrsyk

      Good catch. Here’s the full quote, To minimise disruption, Liberia has given a temporary grace period of up to 90 days for ships insured by Ingosstrakh to find new insurance. According to Bloomberg, this decision is mainly symbolic, as only three Liberian-flagged vessels are affected.

  12. The Rev Kev

    “Analysis | Endless War, Not ‘Total Victory’: IDF Wants to Leave Gaza, but Netanyahu Has Other Ideas”

    ‘In his search for an alibi, Netanyahu this week ignited a calculated, planned quarrel with the United States. On Tuesday, amid the storm over the legislation to create jobs for rabbis, Netanyahu released a new video in English. Contrary to the rules of the diplomatic game, he attacked President Biden.’

    Netanyahu has done this twice now. My thought was that perhaps the US is holding back the bombs needed if Netanyahu wants to invade Lebanon as the last thing that the US needs is a regional war. Or perhaps US stocks of bombs have reached critical levels in the US armouries – but that Netanyahu wants them anyway to throw around willy-nilly. But there may be another reason. People have noted how Zelensky is starting to crack and to get paranoid. To criticize those he needs help from. Perhaps the same is happening to Netanyahu as all his plans for a quick victory have gone up in smoke. Hamas is actually winning by the age old strategy of not losing but hanging on and hitting back. Only a crazy person would suggest that a solution would be to fight Hezbollah but that is what he wants to do. So perhaps Netanyahu is finally feeling the strain and starting to crack. His staff told him not to publish those videos criticizing Biden but he ignored them and did it anyway. Not a good sign that.

    1. Wukchumni

      Chutzpah isn’t scheduled to be an Olympic event in Paris, but Bibi would easily medal in the event, as he is quite discouraged that the free armaments we have so graciously given him, are on the late side of arriving…

    2. ChrisFromGA

      “Rules of the diplomatic game”

      Hmm, what rules would those be? Would they be like the one where Antony Blinken put up a fake document purporting to have been a ceasefire proposal “accepted” by Israel when it was, in fact, a draft document that Netanyahu and the war cabinet had expressly NOT agreed to?

      Or maybe when Joe attacked Chinese Premier Xi Jinping, calling him a dictator?

      Funny how all of the sudden, diplomatic norms are cited when they’ve been ignored by the Biden administration for years.

    3. Xquacy

      My thought was that perhaps the US is holding back the bombs needed if Netanyahu wants to invade Lebanon as the last thing that the US needs is a regional war.

      Forgive me if I find that hard to believe. MOA quotes Hochstein who fully backs any plans Israel might have on it’s nothern borders:

      Hochstein warned that once fighting in Gaza pauses, Israeli officials intend to turn their full focus to the northern border with the aim of pushing Hezbollah back from the area so the roughly 60,000-96,000 displaced Israelis can return to their homes before the start of school in the fall.

      It’s a bit tiring to watch people act like US is some kind of a restrained actor, when all the evidence indicates that it is anything but.

      Your other statement “Perhaps the same is happening to Netanyahu as all his plans for a quick victory have gone up in smoke.” is contrary to what Netanyahu has been saying from day one as well:

      https://www.cbsnews.com/video/israeli-prime-minister-benjamin-netanyahu-says-war-will-continue-for-many-more-months/

      My understanding is that October 7 was viewed as an opportunity to exterminate Palestinians in Gaza for good. If there are hiccups in that plans, its only caused by the unexpected ‘squeemishness’ (to borrow Churchill’s phrase in reference to gassing Afghans, his ‘uncivilized tribes’) of the general public in the west.

  13. zagonostra

    >The Foreign Holders of the Ballooning US Debt: They’re Buying, But Don’t Keep Up – Wolf Street

    India’s holdings: $234 billion. India has multiplied by six its holdings since 2011. I don’t understand what’s going on with India increasing U.S. Debt they are holding. The graphs for China, EU, Japan, Canada, make sense, but India? You would think they’d start off-loading similar to what China is doing.

    https://wolfstreet.com/2024/06/19/the-foreign-holders-of-the-ballooning-us-debt/

  14. Carolinian

    Ddn’t get much out of the Colorado River link but that article links to this in depth dive into AZ and its problems

    https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2024/07/phoenix-climate-drought-republican-politics/678494/

    Being The Atlantic it of course tries to blame everything on the MAGA and doesn’t say much about who the people flooding into Arizona are (heavily Californians and refugees from Dem voting upper Midwest). But it does seem like modern day AZ is a thing that would only make sense if they could somehow close it all down for four months in the summer. Of course the so called “snowbirds” with their trailer parks solve this by only showing up in the winter.

    So that older trailer park version of Phoenix did make a bit of sense but add in an epic drought and greedy investors from Wall Street and even overseas (it’s not just the rightwing locals) and the “I’ll be gone you’ll be gone” mentality is in full swing. The only real solution is for a lot of those people to leave, and those I know who live there are thinking about doing that.

    1. Socal Rhino

      Among my circle of retiring/retired acquaintances here in Socal, Arizona remains a popular destination, Tucson and Prescott though, not Phoenix. Utah is increasingly popular and not just for LDS. One really conservative couple decamped to South Carolina, gave up, and moved to Arizona.

      We had eyed a spot in Oregon for retirement until we saw how hot and smoky the PNW has become in summers.

  15. Jeff H

    Re: Listen to your own souls warning
    I can think of no better advice for those that think so much of themselves that they deserve to rule the world. Might be that I’m just lucky enough or insecure enough to always step back and check my perspective. From my experience, those people who achieve some elevated position are too susceptible to that “pull of ambition” that quiets that angel on their shoulder.
    I had the advantage of Kesey/Leary assisted therapy back in the 60’s and it was crucial but I think it only beneficial if you’re of the proper frame of mind.

  16. mrsyk

    That tweet on the heat wave in the national capital district of India is disturbing. I’m left wondering how much of their public water infrastructure is above ground. I’ve often considered losing access to consistent hot water supply due to climate change (no power scenario), but not having cold water ain’t on my bingo card. Not having a shower of cool water to step under to relieve the heat stress seems like a pretty big deal.

    As far as tourists dying of heat while in Greece, I can only wonder how long before the Times will run a story on how it’s still safe to vacation there.

    Turns out Sam Carana has been the soberest adult in the room for a stretch now.

    1. Jason Boxman

      I’ve feared this since 2004; I knew we’d all end up being cooked alive. From high 90s humid heat in Florida, I already know chocking on burning air isn’t the way I want to go. And that was only in the high 90s and low 100s. An uncomfortable fate comes for us all.

      Maybe we need more BTC!

      The lack of seriousness in the response is not really surprising. Certainly, as Pelosi said, Democrats are capitalists. So you can’t look there for the answer. Just an example of a serious response:

      All large automobiles are outlawed, effective immediate. Manufacturing stops. Today. In 90 days, all families will have a single car only. To accommodate this, the work day is winding down to 20 hours max per week.

      We can’t even tackle lowest hanging fruit: Banning all disposable containers of every kind. Banning wrapping of fresh produce in plastic. The simplest of simple, obvious stuff.

      But any effective change is antithetical to capitalism, and the capitalists in charge. So we all die.

      1. inchbyinch

        ‘so we all die,’ but not until they harvest all our organs, and squeeze out all the cold, hard cash they can from everybody’s cash-cow of a colon:

    2. Laura in So Cal

      That India tweet made me think of the beginning of Kim Stanley Robinson’s book “Ministry for the Future”. That first chapter is about a vivid and horrifying heat wave in India that killed millions.

      The rest of the book doesn’t live up to the first chapter, but was still worth the read.

  17. Carolinian

    Re the Phil Weiss in Mondoweiss

    What the Columbia story tells us is that pro-Israel ideology is enmeshed in the U.S. corporate/power structure. Both the Paul, Weiss and Sullivan and Cromwell chairs are in their 60s. They are the vanishing boomer generation, but still in power. They combine absolute dedication to the American economy and American interests in the world (as they see them) with devotion to Israel. (Shenker is also an orthodox rabbi.)

    Similarly, in Hollywood, a leading marketing executive wrote an email to staff saying that they should stop working with anyone who is “posting against Israel.” She wrote that “anyone saying Israel is committing a ‘genocide’ is someone we will pause on working with, as that is simply not true. While Jews are devastated by the loss of innocent lives in Gaza, we are feeling immense fear over the rising Jew Hatred all over the world.”

    Variety reported that her company is “a fixture on red carpets and is at the forefront of brand integration with celebrities” and the leading talent agencies.

    Weiss says that things are changing but regular readers know that he is an eternal optimist on when it comes to such predictions. If it’s a race between generational change and Armageddon then we may not have the time.

    And some would opine that the Lobby is also about domestic power and not just concern over the fate of Israel. After all if you can dictate foreign policy then the same tools can apply to making sure runways are foamed domestically. Perhaps the Lobby’s control over our Congress is more a matter of, to quote W.C. Fields, “you can’t cheat an honest man.” There’s plenty of blame to go around.

    1. Katniss Everdeen

      While Jews are devastated by the loss of innocent lives in Gaza…”

      It is beyond galling to listen to this bald-faced lying bullshit coming from these zionist fanatics, when considering the almost unfathomable depravity with which the israeli zealots are treating Palestinian captives as detailed in the Ryan Grim tweet.

      And it is beyond terrifying to realize that this venomous sociopathy is repeated by people who live among us and call themselves “americans.”

      1. Frank

        Looks like the AMERICAN Israel Public Affairs Committee has a few American Zionists in the ranks

  18. The Rev Kev

    “Zelensky’s peace summit flop”

    Zelensky is already looking forward to the next conference where he will seek agreement with the Russians and if that does not work, then he said that there will be another one and another one after that. And as long as this goes on, the money will be flowing to him every step of the way. The Ukraine has already said that they will now need $600 billion to push the Russians out of the country and you wonder how much Zelensky will be cutting out of that money.

  19. Ignacio

    RE: French women voters swing sharply to far right Politico.

    Is this symptomatic of a failure of identity politics? To be sure, women have exactly the same rights as men to vote far right, far left or far centre.

    1. mrsyk

      Seems to be going around, definitely seeing a swing to the right in what were once team blue monopolies. The headline makes my spider senses tingle. Is this a bit of fear being seeded? Trying to close the barn doors perhaps? To answer your question, I’m certain there are some who view “this” as a failure of management in the department of identity politics.

      1. Amfortas the Hippie

        im about as Left as they come and still let you live in rural texas….
        but i remember…seems like a long time ago, when i was laid up for years waiting on the hip…digging in to who this Le Pen person was(may have been her hot daughter gracing daily mail, or something)
        i’d assumed, like a good amurkin, that she was merely a neofascist.
        and there is some of that, which means i’d never vote for her,lol…but a lot less than her dad.
        and she’s softened on all that sort of talk in the last 10+ years.
        what struck me at the time was her domestic policies…like shoring up the famed french welfare state, vacations, healthcare….and really being in front of the pack with regional agriculture,food security, etc especially.
        lots of things like that forced me to take a broader view of all such people.
        like, currently, one thomas massie, of kentucky….prolly the most antiwar/profree speech creature in congress at the moment.
        which is kinda bewildering for me,lol….the old L/R is meaningless any more, since the erstwhile “left”(read: democrats) became the center wing of the Right Wing Parties.
        way out here in the wilderness, i find agreement these days more with the russel kirk conservatives than with any currently alive democrat…even on New Dealish stuff, remarkably.

        i havent taken the time to see if Jill is on the ballot, here in texas…and if she is, that might cause me to come down out of the hills to vote in november, just as a middle finger.
        otherwise, theres really no one i’d spend my vote on…
        like i keep telling folks who ask(weirdly, quite a lot of folks ask me,lol)…I remain unrepresented.

        1. mrsyk

          That left/right thing looking more like a circle (amoeba?), heh heh. Turns out that not just lefties care about their fellow countrymen, go figure. maybe that’s some of the motivation on practicing identity politics, keeping the riffraff from finding out the all pretty much want the same things.
          Gotta get back at it.

    2. CA

      ” ‘French women voters swing sharply to far right Politico.’

      Is this symptomatic of a failure of identity politics?”

      A superb question that I have asked myself, but I have no secure answer as yet.

    3. Daniil Adamov

      The article makes it sound like a success of gender identity politics for the NF/RN: supposedly women voters flocked to it en masse once the party got a female leader that didn’t offend them with misogynistic comments. Kind of like the effect Hillary Clinton hoped for but didn’t get, or didn’t get nearly as much as she expected. Though Aurelien is surely correct to point out that there are plenty of actual issues on which the party appeals to them too, whether anyone else likes it or not.

    1. The Rev Kev

      So maybe South Korea shipping all that artillery to NATO so that their stocks could be sent to the Ukraine wasn’t the best of moves. As far as the Russians were concerned, that made them a party to this war so now the South Koreans are going to have to eat the consequences. It would be smarter for them to come to some sort of negotiated settlement with the North Koreans but Washington will never allow that. Now they are going to be faced with the North Koreans having a security guarantee of not only Russia but China as well and an increasingly sophisticated military to their north.

      1. Ignacio

        “Everything” is going according to plan. Now we need to, somehow, double down! Timber! Timber!

  20. Aurelien

    The Politico article “French women voters swing sharply to far right” is mainly of interest in exemplifying the self-induced blindness of Europe elites to what is in front of their nose. For a start, we need to stop talking about the RN as the “far right:” as I’ve pointed out before, its political programme would have been considered mainstream forty years ago. And since the RN has gained a lot of electoral support compared with 2022, and since half of the electorate are women, well, certain things follow arithmetically. Likewise, in the 2022 Presidential elections, 43% of those who voted, voted for Le Pen, and I don’t think they were all male. So this isn’t really a development, so much as it is elites waking up to something they’ve previously ignored. Nor is it the result of the RN wooing stupid women voters with rhetoric about i**********n. It’s basically a case of suicide by the other parties.

    This is an election, and you can only vote for actually existing parties. Let’s see.The Republicans (what’s left of the traditional Right) are in pieces, and their traditionally substantial female vote has to go somewhere. Macron’s party is in desperate trouble, with a resentful and rebellious set of outgoing deputies. Macron’s core support is now down to well-off retirees (“I’ve got mine”), people from his own very narrow social and economic background, the ambitious young and the rich who’ve decided to drop the Republicans. It’s not a great exaggeration to say that Macron now only has the support of those who expect to benefit financially from his party forming the next government. By contrast, the RN vote is disproportionately working-class and lower-middle class (though quickly getting less so) and has suffered from unemployment, insecurity, rising prices and the whole set of current grievances. And again, about half of those social classes are women. i**********n is relevant insofar as this class of the population, unlike the Macronites, actually live in areas if high i**********n, and have to deal with the daily consequences, ranging from criminality to social and educational pressures. Their children go to schools where perhaps a dozen languages are spoken and a third of the class can’t keep up with the lessons, where fights leading to severe injuries and even deaths in the playground are increasingly common, and where swimming lessons have to be cancelled because M****m parents won’t let their daughters use the pool at the same time as boys. And women are likely to be at least as close to these concerns as men: the bus-driver who won’t let you on the bus because you are an unaccompanied woman, or the boys who follow your daughter around calling her a prostitute because she wears a skirt, are problems that afflict mothers more than fathers.

    So your other alternative is the snappily-named Front Populaire, which is at best an unstable coalition of parties with very different and often conflicting policies, sellotaped together to get as many seats as possible. The problem is that there is something in its programme, and even more in statements by its multiple leadership, to offend everybody. The FP is simultaneously for uncritical support of Israel and uncritical support for Hamas, for and against nuclear power, for and against various tax and economic measures, and so forth, depending who you ask. Mélenchon, whose foot hasn’t been in his mouth much in the last year has started talking now about an effective “civil war” in the country, and he and his supporters are now openly calling potential RN voters F*****s: a good way to get support. The FP has little to offer women voters: it assumes their only interests in life are well-paid jobs for female graduates, the endless struggle against patriarchy (except for “racialised” communities where women aren’t allowed out of the house alone, of course) and Moar Abortionz. It’s completely silent on the massive poverty among single mothers, often of i*******t origin, and the struggles of casual female workers doing dirty jobs to get decent pay and conditions. In addition, many women just won’t vote for an alliance some of whose components have made such accommodations with Political Is**m. Many older French women came from the countryside and have unpleasant memories of what it felt like to grow up under the scrutiny of organised religion.

    So what does that leave? The RN, basically, if you want to vote for someone who might win. The RN is rapidly becoming the default home for “the average French person”, perhaps in the 30-55 bracket, not especially well-off, without a degree from a prestigious university, and worried more about making ends meet at the end of the month than whether people should be able to change their sex just by filling in a form at the town hall, as the FP has recently proposed. And quite a lot of these people are women.

    1. Ignacio

      The other day I read another article from Politico which, for once, was useful because it explained how the two-round legislative elections work. I think I understand why the Front Populaire coalition has been created if it is true that you need at least 12,5% of registered voters to pass round, even if it looks very much as a catch-all mess that might probably rise the options of RN instead of increasing their own. If there is high participation i sense that, with such little popular support, Macron’s party runs the risk of being wiped out in these elections.

    2. CA

      “French women voters swing sharply to far right…”

      Aurelien, this short essay is terrific, I always look forward to your comments. Thank you.

    3. vao

      For those who can deal with the French language, there is an in-depth analysis of the last elections for the European Parliament. Lots of figures to ponder, so I will just mention two points:

      1) RN and LFI have very similar profiles regarding the proportion of voters who are men/women.

      2) The descriptions of the sociological basis of support for Macron’s party (“Renaissance”) and for the RN is accurate. The one for LFI (“La France Insoumise”, Mélanchon’s party) is striking and deserves a mention: it is an urban and highly-educated population — but mired in precarity and living with constrained means (its income level appears to be overall lower than what voters for RN have, while its education level is overall higer).

      It is also interesting to note that the income and education profiles for voters of Renaissance, LR, Reconquête (the genuine extreme right party), and Socialists are very close.

      This being said, I suspect that Renaissance and LR will be whacked in the next elections, but I seriously doubt that the FP will achieve much.

    1. Ignacio

      I went to the Eurostat excess mortality and checked for monthly results in Greece from January 2021 to today. In all these years excess mortality peaks occur in july-August and these are higher than the winter peak. A similar pattern, even more extreme is seen in Spain but not, for instance, in Norway.

  21. timbers

    “Sunak may sanction UK youth if they refuse compulsory national service”……….Sunak is 44 making him eligable for military service, and he has 2 young children (not their ages). Yey he’ll probably escape to one of his many posh residences like the one in California. Hypocrite.

  22. The Rev Kev

    “The U.S. power structure is blindly dedicated to Israel”

    Not just the UK. Jeremy Corbyn reported in an interview that-

    ‘During one extremely hostile meeting of the Parliamentary Labour Party Committee, they confronted me and said: ‘Will you give a blanket undertaking that you as party leader and potentially prime minister will automatically support any military action Israel undertakes?’ And I said no,” he recalled.’

    So that may be a main reason that he was given the boot. Because he refused to give Israel the blank check that Starmer wants to give them. Maybe Starmer is worried that the Chief Rabbi of the UK will come after him like they did Corbyn if he doesn’t buckle-

    https://www.rt.com/news/599685-starmer-corbyn-israel-pledge/

    1. CA

      Jeremy Corbyn reported in an interview that-

      ‘During one extremely hostile meeting of the Parliamentary Labour Party Committee, they confronted me and said: ‘Will you give a blanket undertaking that you as party leader and potentially prime minister will automatically support any military action Israel undertakes?’ And I said no,” he recalled.’

      [ Wow. ]

  23. The Rev Kev

    Just logging off for the night but before I do, and at the risk of thread-jacking, I came across a video earlier which bothers me. If you have a car which quickly drains its battery or has all sorts of problems when hooked up to diagnostics, it may be because your dealership has installed a tracker on your car which you do not know about-

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7UkBD_BrpRk (5:43 mins)

    The comments are interesting too.

    1. jrkrideau

      Do we know if Patriot missiles actually do shoot down missiles? These early reports about Iraq did not inspire confidence and tha Anwar Allah attack on or about Riyadh did not help.

  24. griffen

    Watching a bit of business news on CNBC this morning and a recurring report each hour is some news around the automaker Ferrari opening a new plant in Maranello, Italy. According to the report the company earns a gross profit of US $ 126,000 per vehicle. Oh and the waiting list runs out for three years, do place your future order soon for a delivery by mid year 2027 !

    Also in the reporting, no immediate plan by Ferrari to build a very high priced electric vehicle. I just can’t imagine the interest being too strong, but maybe that leaves a niche opportunity for Tesla or a Chinese EV maker.

    1. Victor Sciamarelli

      There is, however, Formula-E racing and companies like Porsche, Maserati, McLaren and others are involved; Ferrari, I don’t think so.

  25. Tom

    Tried to post a reddit link of Reggie Jackson talking about playing baseball in Alabama in the 70s. If you haven’t seen it yet, google it. There are other links out there, but the reddit one is uncensored and hits harder. it’s in r/sports. Title: Full Reggie Jackson answer to Arod’s question about returning to Rickwood Field.

  26. Carolinian

    MOA is back and talks about Lebanon.

    https://www.moonofalabama.org/2024/06/hizbullah-ready-to-defeat-israel.html

    Hochstein warned that once fighting in Gaza pauses, Israeli officials intend to turn their full focus to the northern border with the aim of pushing Hezbollah back from the area so the roughly 60,000-96,000 displaced Israelis can return to their homes before the start of school in the fall.

    Gives new meaning to back to school shopping. Uncle will of course supply the smart bombs if not the pencils and notebooks.

  27. DJG, Reality Czar

    Ryan Grim and torturing Palestinian men with rape by dogs.

    This is one of the reasons why Hillary Clinton’s attempt to hijack war crimes and make them into a “crimes against women” thing is so infuriating to me. Torture is about raw display of power. The victim is tortured for the sake of torturing people. The moment Clinton’s grifting and white-chickness enter, they drive out any genuine concern for victims of torture.

    How do we solve the “problems” of torture? We end torture. And that includes U.S. police departments, which are notorious.

    How do we solve the problems of rape during war? Rape of men and women? We end war.

    Anytime the Clintonians of this world make things too complicated, it is to skim money.

    [And, no, I’m not expecting Liz Cheney and Dick Cheney suddenly to show a moral compass.]

    1. mrsyk

      “skim” heh heh. You’re much too kind. Skimming is practiced by fund managers who can only dream of the largess the Clintons enjoy.

    2. JP

      Posted on X as hearsay. Not buying into it at this point. War is rape (and pillage) and always has been.

  28. ambrit

    Just an uncomfortable comment playing Devil’s Advocate regarding the Craig Murray election fracas.
    Murray lives in Edinburgh I assume. (He is mentioned as possibly “packing up and returning to Edinburgh” in the post.) This Adnan person perhaps lives in the seat of the borough, Blackburn? Secondly, the proximate cause de jure may be Palestine, but isn’t the election being held in and for a part of Scotland? So, whoever wins must engage with the locals quite a bit. (Assuming that Blackburn is not a ‘rotten’ borough.) Finally, what is the ‘ethnic’ makeup of the Blackburn borough? England is still over 80% “white.” Somehow, Scotland feels that it should be even more so.
    That aside, viewing this as a campaign against the central government, (Murray being a definite ‘apostate’ “insider”), one could suspect that the Adnan candidacy is a put up job by the Establishment to split the “Independent” vote and thus keep the Establishment politico in power. The suddenness and “fiery fervour” of the ‘new’ candidate tends to support this theory. “Divide and rule” has been a political axiom for millennia for a very good reason; it works.
    By all accounts, the Establishment is trying to crush the nascent Worker’s Party by ‘hook or crook.’ They should beware success here. There was another “Workers Party” in the last century that caused a lot of trouble for the Establishments of the day. That Party rose to prominence greatly helped by the same Establishment as a ‘tool’ to crush that day’s Left Worker’s Parties. It later ended up ‘crushing’ one and all who opposed it.
    As a side note: If Sunak does indeed fly off to live in his, (or is it his wife’s,) California mansion, then he should be declared “persona non grata” by England and have his assets in the City seized. Who can two masters serve? Be either an Englishman, or a Globalist, but not both. Americans who serve a certain Middle Eastern Theocracy could ponder the same question.
    Stay safe all.

    1. GrimUpNorth

      Blackburn is in England and I believe it has a sizeable amount of ethnic minorities.

        1. Revenant

          Blackburn is a former (textile) mill town, is deeply impoverished and has a high population of Pakistani / Kashmiri / Bangladeshi immigrants who were hired in the post WW2 labour shortages and then within a generation unemployed. Family reunification immigration, cousin marriage (see earlier NC, I think, for a very detailed article on this) and anti-feminist cultural practices have resulted in poor integration and educational attainment in these communities. The “community elders” that the Independent candidate refers to is code for mosque leaders / imams etc.

          Craig Murray is a well-meaning white Scotsman with sincere liberal socialist views and a broadly Christian background. The Blackburn umma apparently wants a Asian Muslim candidate, ideology uncertain and possibly unimportant. The only common ground they may have is opposing Israel in Gaza.

          Representative democracy may not be compatible with religious collectivism. George Galloway is a Muslim convert and perhaps can straddle the worlds but it appears that the British Muslim vote will only abandon Labour for a Muslim mirror-image of the Reform party, which has its own ethnic nationalist fringe.

          1. Michaelmas

            Revenant: George Galloway is a Muslim convert

            Not unless he’s keeping it a secret. In 2012 he was asked if he was a Christian, and replied that he was in fact a practicing Catholic and that: –

            ‘Yes, I believe in the Resurrection. I believe God restored the life of Jesus of Nazareth and took him to his bosom. The example of suffering and sacrifice followed by vindication is central to my religious belief.’

            https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/galloway-and-religion/

            And here he is a month ago, again insisting that he’s a practicing Catholic at 10:44 of this long altercation with the hosts of a TV show, Good Morning Britain.

            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jNDAmrLZr3k

            Granted, one of Galloway’s wives was apparently Muslim.

          2. ambrit

            Thank you for the information.
            It seems that America is not alone in suffering the ravages of “Identity Politics.”
            Blackburn sounds like an English version of the American “Flyover Region.” It definitely evokes mental images of the American ‘Rust Belt.’

    2. Alex Cox

      According to one of the comments on Craig Murray’s site, his rival doesn’t live in Blackburn either. “Adnan Hussain is a bad candidate for Blackburn, hes can’t beat Kate. He’s from Burnley and Lives in Wilpshire”.

      Presumably the author means Wiltshire, which is a very nice county inhabited by rich folk in the south of England.

      Go Workers Party!

      1. ambrit

        True enough. America has form in this. Hillary Clinton, born in Illinois, lived in Arkansas for a few years, long time resident of the District of Columbia, suddenly a Senatrix from New York. New York definitely has it’s “rotten boroughs.”

        1. The Rev Kev

          Here in Oz when we talk about candidates from other places dropped into a Seat where they stand an excellence chance of being elected, we say that they were “parachuted” in. Some Seats are reserved for those that need it to be secure like for our Prime Ministers. We just call them “safe seats”. Doesn’t always work as Prime Ministers have been known to not only lose elections but their own personal Seats and it looks like the same will happen with Rishi Sunak in the UK.

  29. Tom Stone

    Biden’s reelection strategy seems a bit odd to me, you are in a tight race and need every vote you can get.
    So you kick 15.000,000 Americans off of Medicaid in the midst of a Pandemic.
    People who are older and thus more likely to vote.

  30. ChrisFromGA

    Unconfirmed reports are that a real-life version of “Breaking Bad” anti-hero Walter White has been hired as a chef to cook up the ultimate stimulant stack for Joe’s big debate next Thursday.

    A strange plume of smoke is visible over Camp David from a shack behind the main building. Let’s hope that Joe doesn’t snort a line right off the podium after his opening remarks, and shout “Booyahhhh!”

    Baseball banned PEDs but don’t expect any Debate Commissioners to step up with a little cup and orders for Joe to fill it, preferably backstage.

    1. griffen

      We’ll need a gravelly toned voice intro…”Let’s get ready to rumble…but with action verbs & harsh words at my competitor…”. It’ll be like Ali vs Frazier! Celebrity Politician Death Match.

      Might turn into a circus aka Tyson vs Holyfield by the finish. Wash your ears you just never know who’s champing at the bit to chew on one of ’em…\sarc

  31. Louiedog14

    Vietnam: Bamboo Diplomacy

    U.S.: Bamboozle Diplomacy

    It would be nice if we could send Tony, Jake, Vicky and the like to Hanoi for a bit, maybe a summer internship? Perhaps they might pick-up a few tips on…being diplomatic.

    Oh, who am I kidding? We kicked Vietnam’s arse fifty years ago and we’ll do it again if we have to.

  32. Alex Cox

    “the Artemis Program, Lunar Gateway space station and later the Deep Space Transport/Mars Missions, will for the first-time place humans outside of Earth’s protective magnetic field.”

    The Artemis Program is a Lunar landing mission. So is Nature magazine telling us that humans never landed on the Moon?

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