Milei’s government appears to be determined to turn Argentina into the first Latin American country to send weapons to Ukraine.
In April we warned that Javier Milei Seems Intent on Embroiling Argentina in War, Whether in Ukraine or the Middle East (Or Both). At that time, the Argentine president had just expressed “solidarity and unwavering commitment” to the State of Israel following Iran’s retaliatory attacks on Israel after Israel’s bombings of the Iranian embassy in Damascus. After holding a cabinet meeting attended, if not chaired, by Israel’s ambassador to Argentina, Milei allegedly said off-screen that Argentina “cannot be neutral in the Third World War”.
“Milei is determined to take sides in international conflicts, believing that this positions him as an international leader,” says geopolitical analyst Gonzalo Fiore Viani. “Everything he does is to reinforce that image and not to advance Argentina’s national interests.”
Milei seems determined to involve Argentina not only in the escalating tensions in the Middle East, but also in the meat grinder that is Ukraine. Yesterday, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III welcomed Argentina as a new member of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (aka Ramstein Group) during his opening address at the group’s 23rd meeting. The Ramstein Group is an alliance of (mainly NATO) countries that meets monthly at the Ramstein air base in Germany to coordinate the ongoing donation of military aid to the Zelensky government.
A “Gift” for Zelensky
During his tour of Europe, Milei will participate in the G7 summit in Orgo Egnazia, at the invitation of Italian PM Georgia Meloni. He will also take part in the pie-in-the-sky Summit on Peace in Ukraine in Geneva on June 15-16, in which Russia, like many other prominent non-NATO countries, has refused to participate, describing the event as “irrelevant”. As for Milei’s government, it appears determined to turn Argentina into the first Latin American country to send weapons to Ukraine.
In an interview with CNN Español’s Andrés Oppenheimer in April, Milei even entertained the possibility of sending military personnel into the meat grinder, a proposal that enjoys the support of just 21% of the population, according to a survey by the consultant Gustavo Córdoba. Any decision to send troops would have to go through Congress first, an unnamed diplomatic source told La Politica Online.
The same is not true of sending arms. A new article by Infobae suggests that Milei wants to gift Ukraine’s (now wholly unelected) President Volodymyr Zelensky five French-made fighter jets (readers will have to excuse the rather crude pro-NATO propaganda in the first paragraph):
Javier Milei approved a plan designed by Luis Petri and Diana Mondino to support Ukraine’s war effort against Russia, which started an illegal war in Europe to fulfill Vladimir Putin’s imperial dreams.
It involves sending to Volodimir Zelensky’s government five Super Etendard combat aircraft that are out of use due to the embargo that Great Britain applies against Argentina as a result of the Malvinas War.
France’s participation is key to overcoming this geopolitical obstacle, and Chancellor Mondino and Defense Minister Luis Petri have been working for weeks to advance this secret move that also involves the United States and NATO.
Mondino discussed this complex issue during the meetings he held in Paris with Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné, in a secret meeting she held with NATO in Brussels, and when she visited Jake Sullivan… at the… White House.
So, the plan has been discussed at the highest levels, though it is not yet clear whether it enjoys the all-essential blessing of the Biden administration. As readers may recall, Washington, Kiev and Brussels already tried to persuade Latin American countries to donate their Russian-made weaponry to Ukraine’s war effort, to no avail.
By this point, NATO’s demoralised members are presumably delighted to bring any new country on board with project Ukraine, even one with so little money or weaponry to offer. At the Ramstein Group meeting, Lloyd Austin seized on Argentina’s membership as evidence that “support for Ukraine is growing and not waning”.
Serious Flaws
The planes plan has serious flaws, of course. First, it is likely to spell disaster for Argentina’s diplomatic relationship with Russia, as well as possibly with key Russian allies such as Beijing. As the Argentine defence specialist Daniel Blinder told Sputnik Español, as long as Milei’s government seeks “unfettered alignment” with the US, it risks generating a “significant confrontation with Russia and China* that could go very badly.”
If the operation goes ahead, it would mean “embroiling Argentina in a far-flung conflict in a region that is of no strategic interest to the country,” says Fiore. It would also mean directly interfering with the geopolitical interests of Russia, a country with whom Buenos Aires has historically enjoyed “good relations” and which even supports Argentina’s claim to sovereignty over the Malvinas (Falklands Islands). Even more importantly, Russia is pushing to expand its strategic and military influence in Latin America.
Second, and most important of all, the planes themselves are incapable of flying. Indeed, they haven’t left the ground since arriving in Argentina in 2019. The reason is simple: they do not have the necessary cartridges to eject the pilot’s seat in the case of an emergency. Said cartridges are manufactured in the United Kingdom, which has an embargo on all weapons sales to Argentina. The then-Macri government in Argentina was given advance warning of this fact but still bought the planes.
In 2016, France’s Ministry of Armed Forces sent a letter informing the Macri government not only that the “UK’s restrictions on exports to Argentina prevent us from getting spare parts for the ejection seats” but also that the planes themselves had been retired years earlier. This meant there would no longer be the necessary personnel to repair and maintain the planes after any sail. The Macri government bought the planes anyway for €12.5 million a piece.
Now, Milei’s government seems quite prepared to jettison its relations with Russia, the world’s biggest nuclear power, for the sake of five flightless planes. To conceal its involvement, Milei’s foreign and defence ministers have apparently proposed giving the five Super Etendard jets to the French armed forces in exchange for other military equipment, such as drones or helicopters. That way, they seem to think, Putin would not realise that Argentina was participating in the Ukraine conflict and the Macron government would be able to install new cartridges in the ejection seats so that the jets arrive in Ukraine in tip-top shape.
This new plan is arguably even more flawed than the original one. First, it rests on the assumption that Russia would be easily duped. If any deal does go down, Russia’s retribution will presumably be swift and asymmetrical — just as happened when Ecuador’s Daniel Noboa government offered to give up its Russian-made arms to Ukraine, claiming they were mere worthless “scrap”, in exchange for $200 million of US weapons. The Russians responded by threatening to boycott Ecuador’s number-one export product, bananas. Within days, Noboa had scrapped the plan.
Second, if the Milei government’s plan does indeed go ahead (a big “IF”), by the time all the parts are in place, Macron may no longer even be president of France. After suffering a brutal drubbing in the recent EU elections, the French president has called snap elections for the end of June. This has sparked all manner of mayhem and speculation, and while Macron is likely, once again, to stave off defeat in the second round of voting despite his anaemic approval ratings, there are no guarantees.
In the end, Argentina’s Super Etendard jets are probably destined to remain grounded and mothballed at the Puerto Belgrano air-naval base for the foreseeable future. “High-level” sources in the armed forces cited by the respected military publication Zona Militar have “categorically denied any plan by the current Argentine government to transfer these combat aircraft to another country.” The jets, it says, are in no fit state for commissioning, let alone a transfer abroad. The operation would also reduce the capabilities of Argentina’s Armed Forces, which have sought for years to recover some of the air capacity lost over recent decades.
Even if the Milei government were to send a consignment of weapons to Ukraine, they will, of course, have next to no material impact on the course of the war — especially if they don’t work! But it will still cost the stagflation-battered country money it simply doesn’t have.
* China is Argentina’s second largest trade partner as well as a vital creditor that Milei desperately needs to keep on board. This week, Beijing agreed to renew its currency swap with Buenos Aires, defusing fears that Milei’s cash-strapped government would have to repay $5 billion to the Asian super power in the next few months. This gives Argentina’s stagflation-hit economy a little much-needed breathing space.
But it comes at a price for Milei, who has apparently agreed to visit Beijing for a bilateral meeting with with Xi Jinping, who will presumably treat his guest to generous helpings of finely spiced humble pie. On the campaign trail, Milei famously described the Chinese government as an assassin and said he would never deal with communist regimes. The irony is that if the meeting takes place as scheduled in early July, it will mean that Milei will have paid his first diplomatic visit to Beijing before even receiving an invite to the White House.
Milei, as shown here, is just another “leader” whose main interest is himself and in this sense not as different from people like Macron, Kallas and so many others. Democracy has turned to be a contest to choose who will be the next ego to satisfy his her ambitions. A reality show like many others in TV.
I disagree. His interest in “himself” is secondary. There are other forces behind his policy. There is a particular group that I will not mention who has a direct interest in taking a bellicose posture to Russia.
As an aside, you should look into Martin Bormann, Hitler’s finance guy who was probably the the most influential person in Nazi Germany after Hitler himself. I think it is conclusive that he ended up in Argentina. In fact, there are regions in Argentina where blue-eyed Arian blonds constitute whole villages.
https://www.amazon.com/Martin-Bormann-Exile-Paul-Manning/dp/1495488144
I think most people would regard the banker Dr Hjalmar Schacht as Hitler’s “finance guy”
Argentina also had all sorts of other European immigrations of less nasty origin including Poles. Occasional blonde Pole too.
Bormann apparently committed suicide in May 1945 in Berlin. And he wasn’t the finance guy, he was the chair of the Nazi Party.
I also disagree that Milei is not concerned for himself. Neoliberalism is all about selfishness and I’m sure the money is rolling into Milei’s Cayman Islands bank account.
Come on, not that old trope again. There was a large German migration to Argentina, most of it from long before the second World War. There were notably some 800 scientists and technicians who came after the war, sought by the Peron government for their expertise. We were hardly alone in doing so, not pointing fingers (*cough* von Braun *cough*).
Bormann died in Berlin in 1945, his skeleton found in the 70s, confirmed by DNA testing in the 90s.
Ignacio: I note The Rev Kev’s astute comparison of Milei to Boris Johnson. Also note The Rev Kev’s comparison of Milei to the spectrum of NATO-nation leaders. (Both ideas are directly below.)
He’s somewhere around Annalena Baerbock. The Chainsaw-Green Coalition.
Much of the right (and not what we’d call real conservatives, if any of them remain, except at The American Conservative magazine) now manages by chaos.
When I first saw the title, I thought that I had to click, because it meant that Nick Corbishley was turning to writing political satire. No so. Much worse. Bad news, indeed. But management by chaos explains Milei. It also explains Boris Johnson, Rishi Sunak, Donald Trump, Lindsey Graham, and Le Roi Macron.
The chaos that they provoke in the body politic means that the average citizen is overtaken by the weird events and by the stoked uncertainty.
And then there’s this: “During his upcoming tour of Europe, Milei will participate in the G7 summit in [B]orgo Egnazia between June 13 and 15, at the invitation of Italian PM Georgia Meloni.” Sheer lunacy. And, likely, not Meloni’s own idea, even if she is a chameleon (to use the polite word). She’s too busy reinforcing the Progetto Draghi that she supposedly disapproved of.
Also: I think that Milei’s management by chaos is an attempt by Great Powers to encircle Brazil. He has to get something for this seemingly absurd gesture.
Given this group’s penchant for “chaos theory” in government, I would amend your “naming” of the French impotentate to “Ubu Roi” Macron.
If we add Argentina to the G-7 group, even if only temporarily, then we have a G-7.25 group. Somehow, this does not rise to the level of a “Coalition of the Willing.”
Ubu Roi Macron. Outstanding!
More and more Milei is reminding me of Boris Johnsone and I don’t just mean the wild hairstyle. The does the same weird theatrics as Boris with Milie waving around a chainsaw while Boris went down a guide line waving two Union Jacks. Both making off the cuff decisions that had bad effects on their country though we will have to wait to see if Milei is personally profiting from these like Boris was. If another pandemic blows up, I can see Milei turning Argentina into a hell hole because he knows better than any medical expert. On the international stage he is a Neocon who wants to defend Israel and fight both Russia and China. And here, sending these jets is entirely pointless unless they would serve as packages of spare parts. So he is now raising the ire of Russia for what exactly? Want to know the worse of it? In spite of all these idiotic decisions, you could put him in the middle of most of the leaders of the NATO nations and by his actions he would not stand out at all. It is only because he is in a South American context that he stands out.
“[…] [Y]ou could put him in the middle of most of the leaders of the NATO nations and by his actions he would not stand out at all. It is only because he is in a South American context that he stands out.” That is a great point, and something that hadn’t occured to me until now. It actually made me laugh out loud when I realized it was true.
While I’m still inclined to think that Milei is a bit worse, when I think about it it’s really only due to the repulsiveness of his appearance, personality, style etc. and not the substance of his policies.
“[…] [Y]ou could put him in the middle of most of the leaders of the NATO nations and by his actions he would not stand out at all. It is only because he is in a South American context that he stands out.” That is a great point, and something that hadn’t occured to me until now. It actually made me laugh out loud when I realized it was true.
While I’m still inclined to think that Milei is a bit worse, when I think about it it’s really only due to the repulsiveness of his appearance, personality, style etc. and not the substance of his policies.
So China is helping Argentina stay on float at the same time Argentina is selling off the country to USA. I Wonder why, because this kind of diplomacy dont work with Argentina. The country elites are very loyal to USA, they will sellout the Chinese when the time come
The Super Etendard is a real piece of junk and the Russians should not feel threatened by it. It is too old, lacks spare parts, and it is unclear where they will get pilots and mechanics.
No kidding there! Russia probably welcomes the waste of time Ukrainian aircraft techs would have to spend working on those things, and the waste of time Ukrainian pilots would have to spend training on them.
It boggles my mind that anyone, whether argentinian, french or ukrainian, could think this is a good idea. The only possible benefit for Argentina would be to get some new useful equipment while getting rid of a bunch of non-flyable planes that, even if restored to flying condition, dont have that many flying hours left in them (one report i read mentioned one of the airframes having as little as under 100 flight hours left).
The Macri government snatched up those planes at a bargain price because the french were using them to sweeten the deal for the overpriced OPV patrol boats they were concurrently selling. It made *some* sense at the time, we have operated Super Etendards in the past and we have a number of those still mothballed that could theoretically be rehabilitated with new spares. However, defense has been pretty low on the spending priorities list.
The economic links between Russia and Argentina are not so important, so the fallout of russian sanctions would likely not be comparable to Ecuadors bananas. However, russian technicians and technology have been used in some infrastructure projects, most notably hydroelectric. I can think of at least half a dozen dams that have russian built turbines, and I wonder to what extent these are vulnerable to a cutoff in spare parts.
Another potentially larger point of vulnerability is the outsized dependence of Argentina’s all-important agricultural sector on imports of fertilisers, including from Russia. According to a 2022 article in Seminario Universidad, Argentina imported 60% of the 6.6 million tons of fertiliser it uses, of which 15% came from Russian suppliers.
Not sure where they get those numbers (that site is from Costa Rica, apparently), other sources I checked pin the value % of russian fertilizer imports to Argentina at 5.86% (140 million USD), I dont view it as significant. (source: https://oec.world/es/profile/bilateral-product/fertilizers/reporter/arg )
There have been significant diesel imports from Russia in recent years, but I cannot on a cursory search find any detailed breakdown. But in any case, both fertilizer and diesel have multiple other providers who can step in, there may be some extra costs. I pointed out the hydroelectric turbines because those are specialty items where Russia is likely to be the only provider of spares.
One thing to note, there is still something much bigger that Milei can do to piss off Russia. Its something I have not seen it mentioned much, Argentina has a mothballed artilley production line for 155mm shells, and there is talk of bringing that back online to supply Ukraine and Israel.
Picking a fight with Russia and the muslim world right now is still pretty stupid anyway, there was absolutely no need to.
FYI – Macron will be the French president until 2027, no matter the result of the snap legislative election. He will remain nominally in charge of foreign policy as well, which is a power of the executive.
Unless something extraordinary happens.
Ditto, Bugs.
The elections are parliamentary, not presidential. Unless (please?) something odd happens, Macron is president until 2027.
Thank you for that very important clarification, Jokerstein (hangs head in shame after spending entire week in a cave). Have removed the offending section.
There is something seriously wrong with Argentina. For a resource-rich and fertile nation, favored by geography and climate, to stumble from one financial crisis to the next while electing ineffectual and/or malevolent leaders indicates a serious deficit of social capital and a failure of democracy. If the people and leaders of Argentina conducted themselves like their counterparts in Singapore, Argentina would be a superpower instead of an object of pity and condescension.
Argentina joining the US in project Ukraine seems like a NATO idea. Here’s a link displaying a photo of the US’ 50 year old rust bucket aircraft carrier USS Eisenhower (second photo below the chart): https://indi.ca/how-us-navy-defeated/
They can’t fly? Maybe we could build a pier. They could get to Europe that way.
:-]
Or donate them to one of the hugely expensive new British aircraft carriers for show as they currently do not have any aircraft and in any case are not seaworthy due to poor maintenance.
Given conditions in Ukrainian airspace these days, the pilots would be lucky to get an opportunity to use their ejector seats anyway.
Offering useless jets can be clever and harmless. Russia is quite pragmatic, so it will just ignore unfriendly empty gestures, but neocons planted in IMF may react positively.