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2:00PM Water Cooler 7/10/2024

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By Lambert Strether of Corrente

Bird Song of the Day

Great Horned Owl, P. Fenwick NFC – El Caminito Road, Monterey, California, United States. Scary!

Who? Who?

* * *

In Case You Might Miss…

(1) Trump VP picks.

(2) Biden’s wall of Black support

(3) Pelosi: “Not so fast!”

* * *

Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

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2024

Less than a half a year to go!

Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:

First post-debate polling: Trump jumps a full point in the 5-way national race, which a Biden supporter might find concerning. OTOH, the Swing States seem relatively unaffected. Swing States (more here) still Brownian-motioning around. Of course, it goes without saying that these are all state polls, therefore bad, and most of the results are within the margin of error. It would be hilarious if the Biden Debate debacle had exactly the same effect as Trump’s 34 bazillion felony convictions, i.e., none, both parties are so dug in.

Swing state motion:

Judgment calls, of course. But Cook Political is old school, not into dogpiling.

* * *

Trump (R): “As Dems end calls for Biden to step aside, window opens for Trump VP pick to take the spotlight” [Just The News]. “Among the candidates most discussed as potential running mates to Trump are Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum.” • Little Marco? Surely not.

Trump (R) (Smith/Cannon; Smith/Chutkan): “Jack Smith Isn’t a Special Counsel ‘by Law'” [Michael Mukasey, Wall Street Journal]. “The Constitution’s Appointments Clause limits how executive offices can be created and how they may be filled…. It empowers the president to nominate and appoint “officers of the United States” not specifically provided for in the Constitution only with the advice and consent of the Senate, and only to offices “which shall be established by Law.” Authority for appointment of the current special counsel doesn’t exist ‘by Law,’ but rather through a set of regulations put in place unilaterally by U.S. Attorney General Janet Reno in 1999. They don’t have the force of a law passed by Congress and signed by the president, and can be changed at any time by any attorney general…. If Congress had wished to allow the attorney general to create an office of special prosecutor, it would have done so with a statute as simple and direct as those that give the power to create offices to other cabinet secretaries—including the secretaries of transportation, agriculture, health and human services and education. It wouldn’t have relied on gossamer emanations from four statutes.”

* * *

Biden (D): A Pulitzer Prize-winning poet on Biden’s NATO speech:

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Biden (D): “Joe Biden Hasn’t Lost Dems on Capitol Hill. Keeping Them Won’t Be So Simple” [Notus]. “‘They’ve outflanked us with the CBC and others,’ this lawmaker texted, referring to Biden’s efforts to gather support from the Congressional Black Caucus. ‘Members are becoming resigned to Biden holding all the cards here, and us having no real say in the matter.” And: “In that sense, with more bad news on the horizon, Monday was more of a stay of execution than a definitive decision on Biden’s future. But if Biden can make it through this week, he may be in a much stronger position. Next week is the Republican National Convention, where the focus will almost certainly be back on Donald Trump and the GOP. Moreover, Congress will be out of town. It will again be difficult for a jailbreak moment of Democrats coming together against Biden to move the president.” • Of course, a week is a long time in politics.

Biden (D): “Black House Democrats embrace Biden at another critical juncture” [WaPo]. “The desire to defend Biden appears to be so widespread among CBC members, three people aligned with the group said, that it is possible the group will formalize its support for him in a statement over the next several days. The group’s influence could blunt widespread concerns among other colleagues about Biden, and possibly sway Jeffries’s opinion about how House Democrats should respond in an unprecedented moment.” • Does “the next several days” mean this week? We’ll see if this statement comes out.

Biden (D): “After Propelling Biden in 2020, Black Women Aren’t Eager to Abandon Him Now” [WaPo]. “Interviews with nearly two dozen Black Democratic women, including many of the grass-roots organizers credited as instrumental to Mr. Biden’s victory four years ago, indicate that a vast majority of this loyal voting group is not yet prepared to abandon him or Ms. Harris. Their continued backing is driven in part by pragmatism. If he were to drop out, many argued, it would throw the Democratic Party into disarray and gravely imperil their chances of defeating former President Donald J. Trump, whom they see as a threat to democracy and to the racial progress made over the last several decades. … But Ms. Harris is also a significant factor in their support, they said, sharing concerns that attempts to undermine Mr. Biden could also undercut her as part of the ticket and do damage to her future prospects. Should Mr. Biden step aside and Democrats select a candidate other than the vice president, it would all but assure a monumental loss of Black support, many suggested.” And: “A group of more than 150 Black female organizers who attended a gathering in Macon, Ga., one day after the debate said plans were immediately laid to reinforce support for the president. Some leaders are now planning weekly meetings to discuss turnout strategies. The heads of several of these organizing groups, which focus on both rural Black voters and those in the deep-blue Metro Atlanta region, say they will concentrate their efforts on young voters and men. They also plan to counter what they see as Republican-led disinformation efforts aimed at Black voters through in-person engagement.” • But the Democrats are extrremely unlikely to win Georgia. So….

Biden (D): “Opinion Biden has a new outsider strategy. Can he pull it off?” [Eugene Robinson, WaPo]. “On Sunday, at Mt Airy Church of God in Christ in Philadelphia, Biden was enthusiastically cheered by the African American congregation. Black voters are the most loyal of Democratic constituencies. They also tend to be, arguably, the most pragmatic — as they showed in the 2020 primaries, when African Americans in South Carolina, calculating that Biden was the candidate most likely to beat Trump, gave him a landslide triumph that propelled him to the nomination. Members of the Congressional Black Caucus have been among the most vocal House members in their continued support of Biden, and not one, thus far, has called for him to withdraw. The president is now attempting to revive the persona that won him those votes four years ago… Whatever congressional Democrats might be thinking, there was not even a new trickle of lawmakers calling for Biden to step aside Monday, let alone a flood. And for the rest of the week, Biden will be hosting NATO’s 75th-anniversary summit; his party is highly unlikely to say or do anything that might undermine him while he’s so visibly engaged in foreign policy. If his scheduled no-holds-barred news conference goes well on Thursday, Team Biden will argue that the debate is ancient history. He can play the insurgent card only once, though. If he falters again, he won’t be able to point the finger at antidemocratic “elites.” He’ll have no one to blame but himself.” • Yep.

* * *

Biden (D): “Pelosi says it’s up to Biden ‘to decide if he’s going to run'” [New York Times]. “On Wednesday, Ms. Pelosi said on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” that the president should continue to weigh his options. ‘It’s up to the president to decide if he is going to run,’ she said. ‘We’re all encouraging him to to make that decision. Because time is running short.'” Encouraging Biden to make a decision he has said explicitly he has already made is, well, the reverse of encouraging….. Ms. Pelosi said she wanted to restart the conversations about Mr. Biden’s future after the NATO summit he is hosting this week in Washington, which on Thursday will include the president’s first news conference since his disastrous debate performance that raised questions about his mental acuity and fitness to remain in the race. ‘Let’s just hold off,’ she said. ‘Whatever you’re thinking, either tell somebody privately, but you don’t have to put that out on the table until we see how we go this week.'” • When I wrote yesterday that “by this Thursday it will have been two weeks since Biden slipped a cog in debate. That should be sufficient time for a dogplle like this one to die down” I seem to have been channeling Pelosi. That’s an odd feeling, to say the least (and I should have taken NATO into account).

Biden (D): “Why Is the Squad Backing Biden So Forcefully?” [New York Magazine]. “But the president is also getting strong backing from the Squad, the small group of House progressives who have often strongly disagreed with Biden on policy in the past. On Monday, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez told reporters that she was sticking with Biden after speaking to him over the weekend. ‘Joe Biden is our nominee. He is not leaving this race. He is in this race and I support him,’ she said…. Minnesota representative Ilhan Omar, who has frequently challenged the Biden administration on its support for Israel’s war in Gaza, said that she, too, is behind the president. ‘He’s been the best president of my lifetime and we have his back,’ Omar said Monday.” But: “Representative Rashida Tlaib of Michigan, though, has yet to weigh in on Biden following his debate performance. Tlaib, who is seen as Biden’s strongest progressive critic, supported a campaign for Michigan voters to vote ‘uncommitted.'”

Biden (D): “‘There’s no way out’: Democrats feel powerless as ‘elites’ fall in line behind Biden” [NBC]. “‘I wish I was more brave,’ said one Democratic state party chair who thinks Biden should step aside. The person spoke on the condition of anonymity because they fear retaliation from the president’s camp. ‘I would be crucified by them if I spoke out of line,’ the chair continued. ‘I know when you get out of line they all of a sudden have a shift of priorities and your races, your state is no longer on the map.’ Now, they say, it’s happening again.”

BIden (D): “Stephanopoulos apologizes after saying Biden can’t serve another term” [Axios]. What Stephanopolous said, apparently to a passer-by (!!!): “I don’t think he can serve four more years.” • Not quite the same as the headline.

* * *

Biden (D): “Biden’s Biggest Donors Left Powerless to Sway Him to End Bid” [Bloomberg]. “The view within Manhattan circles, one top Wall Street executive said on Monday, is largely unchanged since Joe Biden’s June 27 debate: A change at the top of the ticket will boost the Democrats’ chances…. But what’s clear to these ultra-rich bankers and investors is that there’s no obvious path to making the change happen themselves. Some also see sitting on the sidelines as a savvy option, wanting to avoid fueling a narrative that financiers are pushing Biden out.” But: “Money usually talks — but, perhaps, not in this case. Biden’s political operation has some $240 million on hand, and efforts from those like Mike Novogratz to drum up funds for a yet-to-be-determined alternative have thus far fallen far short of that kind of figure…. Donations to the campaign have thinned in recent days, with some wealthy donors saying they will withhold any future contributions until Biden is off the ticket, according to a person familiar with the fundraising efforts. The Biden campaign has said that grassroots contributions surged following the debate and reported raising more in June than any other month. Biden’s sizable war chest had been a selling point for donors, especially compared to Trump’s cash-poor campaign through the primaries. But since clinching the nomination, Trump has caught up and surpassed Biden, and now has $285 million cash on hand, according to his campaign. Unlike Trump, who’s spent little on television or offices in battleground states so far, Biden’s campaign is employing an expensive strategy. The campaign alone booked $48 million in advertising time last month, according to AdImpact.”

* * *

Biden (D): Not an issue at all:

Biden getting dinged for slipping a cog after slaughtering a few hundred thousand people with his policy of mass infection without mitigation, while fully compose mentis. reminds me of Cuomo being taken down over a #MeToo case, but not for slaughtering a few tens of thousans of elders by shunting them into Covid-infested nursing homes.

* * *

Biden (D): “The Terrible Debate” [Banned in Your State]. “And then, the debate began. Biden looked exhausted. One eye more open than the other. He kept looking down, which made it look like he was closing his eyes. Stumbling over his words, badly. He froze, at one point — four or five seconds of silence. But then, things seemed to get better, at least from my perspective. Sure, I couldn’t really understand what Biden was saying, but my hearing is pretty shot and it was a loud bar so I figured he probably didn’t sound as bad as he sounded to me (turns out he sounded worse: because I couldn’t entirely make out what he was saying, I missed how often he tripped over words and fumbled over facts). Sure, he was missing a lot of opportunities to hit back at Trump, but he was more or less coherent. He wasn’t freezing up. His mix-ups were relatively minor. Sure, Trump was giving the best debate performance of his political career (a very low bar), but this wasn’t catastrophic. Biden’s performance was so much better than I was expecting. I was enjoying my drink and laughing about the whole pathetic golf score exchange and feeling genuine relief when I heard Rachel Maddow — RACHEL MADDOW — declare that Biden had botched this horribly. Then I heard Joy Reid suggest that Biden should step down. Then I looked at my phone.” And: “The Democrats have smoothly transitioned from the delusion that Biden is a great candidate, never better, totally able to win this election and be President for four more years, to the delusion that Biden will step down for the sake of America. That anyone on this earth can convince him to do this.” • Fun piece.

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NY: “Biden support slips in deep blue New York: ‘We’re a battleground state now'” [Politico]. “Elected officials, union leaders and political consultants are panicking over polls showing a steady erosion of Biden’s support in a state he won by 23 points four years ago. They’re so worried they’ve been trying to convince the Biden team to pour resources into New York to shore up his campaign and boost Democrats running in a half-dozen swing districts that could determine control of the House…. The closely watched Siena College poll in June found Biden with an 8-point advantage over Trump. The same poll found only 28 percent of voters not enrolled in a major party supported Biden’s reelection, and 71 percent of them disapproved of the job Biden is doing. Biden’s support has declined since the winter, when he led Trump by 12 points in a February survey, according to the poll.”

PA: “The Pennsylvania County That Just Might Be 2024’s ‘Ground Zero'” [RealClearPolitics]. “The voters here are important. Very important, as Sen. John Fetterman told me in an interview. Every statewide election in Pennsylvania comes down to what Erie voters decide to do…. Once a solid county for Democrats in statewide gubernatorial elections as well as federal elections for president, U.S. Senate, and Congress, Erie shocked the world when the county went from supporting President Obama by a whopping 16 percentage points in 2012 to supporting Donald Trump in 2016 by 40,000 votes. Four years later, Biden would win the county by roughly the same amount; in between, Democrats Josh Shapiro and John Fetterman would also win the county for governor and U.S. Senate, and a Republican won the county executive’s race for the first time in decades. In short – win Erie, you win the state. The question is, going into the presidential election, who is winning the hearts and minds of Erie’s swing voters? Because where they go and what is on their minds heading into the election will tell us not just how Pennsylvania is doing, but also how states like Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Arizona might go, states that are a little less Democratic than the Keystone State.” • Interview heavily biased toward small business owners.

Our Famously Free Press

Getting over the idea that the New York Times isn’t a player:

Republican Funhouse

The kind of question Democrats used to ask, oh well:

Realignment and Legitimacy

“‘Dave’ Predicted the Biden Debacle” [Free Press]. The reference is to the movie Dave, but this caught my eye: “Is the president sane? Competent? Entirely alive? You need not ask yourself these questions, because the president is not the president; he’s just a figurehead, more of a mascot, really—like the Geico Gecko of the executive branch. The actual presidency consists of somewhere between five and 50 people, whose identities may or may not be public knowledge, who stand behind or around or sometimes on top of the president and execute the duties of the office according to their collective wisdom. Did you think, when you pulled the lever for Joe Biden in 2020, that you were actually voting for Joe Biden the singular human being? You fool. You absolute imbecile.” • I expressed the same concern here: “ian extra-constitutional entity at the head of the executive branch.”

“American academic freedom is in peril” [Science]. I’m reading along, nodding my head, and then I come on this: “Although the precise reasons for the recent dismantling of a misinformation research group [the Stanford Internet Observatory] at Stanford University are unclear and complicated, the cost—in time, reputation, and legal expenses—of defending itself against accusations of complicity in government censorship likely played a role.” • “Dismantling” is overblown; these are all Flexians and they’ll just set up shop in a new NGO. As for complicity, see here.

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

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Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

* * *

Maskstravaganza

“Trip report: Summer ISO C++ standards meeting (St Louis, MO, USA)” [Sutter’s Mill]. They took a group photo:

Transmission: Covid

“Evidence for transmission of SARS-CoV-2 at religious mass gatherings: A systematic review” [New Microbes and New Infections]. Systematic Review, N = 10. From the Abstract: “No cases of SARS-CoV-2 were detected at 2020 and 2021 [Grand Magal of Touba (GMT)] or at the 2020 Hajj. In a small study, 7 % of tested individuals were positive after the 2022 GMT. SARS-CoV-2 prevalence during the 2021–2022 Hajj and Umrah seasons varied from 0 to 15 % in different studies. At the 2021 Kumbh Mela, 0.4 million COVID-19 cases were diagnosed among returning pilgrims across India and 1 % tested positive during a one-day survey conducted on participants. During the 2021 Arbaeen pilgrimage, 3 % pilgrims were tested positive. No relevant data were found in relation to SARS-CoV-2 transmission at the 2021 Arbaeen and Lourdes pilgrimages.”

“Detection of active SARS-CoV-2 in cough aerosols from COVID-19 patients” [Infectious Diseases]. Not loogies (droplets) but actual aerosols. From the Abstract: “Twenty-five patients in 21 rooms were included in the study. SARS-CoV-2 RNA was found in cough aerosols from 16 out of 22 patients that produced voluntary cough. As demonstrated by plaque-forming unit assays, active virus was isolated from 11 of these 16 patients. Using mainly molecular detection, the virus was also found in air, on high-contact surfaces, and no-touch surfaces from the room of the COVID-19 patients. These results show that infectious SARS-CoV-2 circulating in air can originate from patient cough and should be considered against the risk of acquiring COVID-19 through inhalation.”

Another aircraft study:

With the same conclusion:

Infection

“‘Playing COVID roulette’: Some infected by FLiRT variants report their most unpleasant symptoms yet” [Los Angeles Times]. “But some doctors say this latest COVID rise challenges a long-held myth: Although new COVID infections are often mild compared with a first brush with the disease, they still can cause severe illness. Even if someone doesn’t need to visit the emergency room or be hospitalized, people sometimes describe agonizing symptoms…. “The dogma is that every time you get COVID, it’s milder. But I think we need to keep our minds open to the possibility that some people have worse symptoms,” said Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, a UC San Francisco infectious diseases expert. Each time you get COVID, he said, is ‘kind of like playing COVID roulette.’ This underscores the need for caution during summer travel and activities, even though the overall risk remains relatively mild.”

“FLiRT was dominating COVID-19 cases, now we’re onto the FLuQE subvariants” [ABC Australia]. “Now FLiRT has further mutated, and FLuQE has become the fastest growing member of the family. While many ingredients in the variant soup are similar, there is an additional mutation experts say makes it more contagious. And it is increasing risks of re-infection as vaccine updates lag behind how fast the virus is changing.” • If only we had some solutions other than vaccines! Something that would prevent the virus from spreading through the air….

Sequelae: Covid

“Long COVID and Post-COVID Conditions” [Pandemic Patients]. The deck: “Overview of the Medium- and Long-Term Complications Associated with COVID-19.”• Massive resource.

Morbidity and Mortality

“Complex patterns of multimorbidity associated with severe COVID-19 and long COVID” [Nature]. Plain Language Summary: “Early in the COVID-19 pandemic it was clear that people with multiple chronic diseases were vulnerable and needed special protection, such as shielding. However, many people without such diseases required hospital care or died from COVID-19. Here, we investigated the importance of underlying diseases, including mild diseases not requiring hospitalization, for COVID-19 outcomes. Using information from electronic health records we find that many severe, but also less severe diseases increase the risk for severe COVID-19 and its impact on health even months after acute infection (Long COVID). This included an almost two-fold higher risk among people that reported poor well-being and fatigue. Our findings show the value of using primary care health records and the need to consider all the medical history of patients to identify those in need of special protection.”

Elite Maleficence

In 2024, WHO still pushes baggy blues:

I assume “indoors” means hospitals? How about public transportation?

* * *

Readers, there is no good news here at all, and this data does not include the Fourth of July weekend. It would sure be handy to have Biobot still in operation, so we could have a single indicator for infection, but of course that was not to be.

TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

Wastewater
This week[1] CDC June 24: Last Week[2] CDC June 17 (until next week):

Variants [3] CDC July 6 Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC June 29
Hospitalization
★ New York[5] New York State, data July 9: National [6] CDC June 8:

Positivity
National[7] Walgreens July 8: Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic July 6:
Travelers Data
Positivity[9] CDC June 17: Variants[10] CDC June 17:

Deaths
Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11]CDC June 29: Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12]CDC June 29:

” alt=”” width=”310″ class=”alignleft size-full wp-image-273838″ />

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, with hot spots annotated. Worse than two weeks ago. New York is a hot again, and Covid is spreading up the Maine Coast just in time for the Fourth of July weekend, in another triumph for Administration policy. On that Bay area hotspot:

[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) LB.1 coming up on the outside.

[4] (ER) This is the best I can do for now. At least data for the entire pandemic is presented.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Now acceleration, which is compatible with a wastewater decrease, but still not a good feeling .(The New York city area has form; in 2020, as the home of two international airports (JFK and EWR) it was an important entry point for the virus into the country (and from thence up the Hudson River valley, as the rich sought to escape, and then around the country through air travel.)

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). This is the best I can do for now. Note the assumption that Covid is seasonal is built into the presentation, which in fact shows that Covid is not seasonal. At least data for the entire pandemic is presented.

[7] (Walgreens) Still going up! (Because there is data in “current view” tab, I think white states here have experienced “no change,” as opposed to have no data.)

[8] (Cleveland) Still going up!

[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Up. Those sh*theads at CDC have changed the chart so that it doesn’t even run back to 1/21/23, as it used to, but now starts 1/1/24. There’s also no way to adjust the time rasnge. CDC really doesn’t want you to be able to take a historical view of the pandemic, or compare one surge to another. In an any case, that’s why the shape of the curve has changed.

[10] (Travelers: Variants) Same deal. Those sh*theads. I’m leaving this here for another week because I loathe them so much:

[11] Deaths low, but positivity up.

[12] Deaths low, ED up.

Stats Watch

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* * *

Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 57 Greed (previous close: 52 Neutral) [CNN]. One week ago: 53 (Neutral). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Jul 10 at 1:38:28 PM ET.

Rapture Index: Closes unchanged [Rapture Ready]. Record High, October 10, 2016: 189. Current: 186. (Remember that bringing on the Rapture is good.) • Not what the climate coverage implies.

The Gallery

Hot weather:

Bill Watterson, creator of Calvin and Hobbes, a thread:

I don’t much like the genre, which ends with a plug for the account’s book, but the thread does have some interesting information on the very impressive Watterson.

Class Warfare

“Kevin Bacon Spent a Day as a Regular Person: ‘I Was Like, This Sucks'” [Vanity Fair]. “Kevin Bacon has daydreamed about walking through life as a regular, nonfamous person… Then Bacon realized he could test out his fantasy by donning a disguise. … So the Golden Globe–winning actor and musician went a step further. “I went to a special effects makeup artist, had consultations, and asked him to make me a prosthetic disguise,” Bacon says… To his initial delight, the disguise really worked. “Nobody recognized me,” he says. But then an unfamiliar sensation washed over Bacon: the feeling of being invisible…. At the Grove [mall], Bacon recalls, ‘People were kind of pushing past me, not being nice. Nobody said, ‘I love you.’ I had to wait in line to, I don’t know, buy a fucking coffee or whatever. I was like, This sucks. I want to go back to being famous.'”

News of the Wired

Droplet Dogma-like dogmas everywhere:

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Upstater: “My iris garden 7 years ago… before the weeds conquered it and favorites had to be relocated. Many are from my late daughter’s garden. Lots of fond memories of beauty.”

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About Lambert Strether

Readers, I have had a correspondent characterize my views as realistic cynical. Let me briefly explain them. I believe in universal programs that provide concrete material benefits, especially to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime example, but tuition-free college and a Post Office Bank also fall under this heading. So do a Jobs Guarantee and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can deliver on such programs, because the two are different flavors of neoliberalism (“Because markets”). I don’t much care about the “ism” that delivers the benefits, although whichever one does have to put common humanity first, as opposed to markets. Could be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don’t much care, as long as the benefits are delivered. To me, the key issue — and this is why Medicare for All is always first with me — is the tens of thousands of excess “deaths from despair,” as described by the Case-Deaton study, and other recent studies. That enormous body count makes Medicare for All, at the very least, a moral and strategic imperative. And that level of suffering and organic damage makes the concerns of identity politics — even the worthy fight to help the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton’s wars created — bright shiny objects by comparison. Hence my frustration with the news flow — currently in my view the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the other by out-of-power liberals and their allies in the State and in the press — a news flow that constantly forces me to focus on matters that I regard as of secondary importance to the excess deaths. What kind of political economy is it that halts or even reverses the increases in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I am also very hopeful that the continuing destruction of both party establishments will open the space for voices supporting programs similar to those I have listed; let’s call such voices “the left.” Volatility creates opportunity, especially if the Democrat establishment, which puts markets first and opposes all such programs, isn’t allowed to get back into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I love the tactical level, and secretly love even the horse race, since I’ve been blogging about it daily for fourteen years, but everything I write has this perspective at the back of it.

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35 comments

  1. Sub-Boreal

    Feral hogs on their relentless march south: Wild ‘superpigs’ from Canada could soon invade some U.S. states, study suggests

    “Wild boar were brought over from the U.K. in the ’80s and ’90s to try and diversify agriculture,” Brook told Quirks & Quarks host Bob McDonald.

    Those boar were then crossbred with domestic pigs to increase their size and reproduction capacity, leading to what Brook calls “superpigs” because “it supercharged their reproduction and it made them bigger.”

    Reply ↓
    1. steppenwolf fetchit

      We should introduce Siberian tigers ( ‘supertigers’) to control the ‘superpigs’.

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  2. ChrisFromGA

    Re: CBC & Biden

    So, let me make sure I have this right. The Congressional Black Caucus is so hidebound to the ideology represented by a white, elderly dementia patient who has no agency to make policy decisions that they’re willing to go down with him, even if it means that the first female black president won’t be given the opportunity to take over what is essentially a ceremonial post.

    M’kay.

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    1. Pat

      I admit I was giving them far too much credit, but every strong black woman I knew from my youth had spent too much time caretaking of their family to buy for a moment that Biden was capable of going to the grocery store by himself much less anything involved with being President, not even the ceremonial bits. Apparently the advancement into the PMC requires leaving common sense behind.

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    2. Mikel

      Anybody curious about the relationship between the CBC and Kamala?
      They may think Biden can beat Trump, then they call for Biden to step down.
      It’s so all over the place…who knows…
      Just spitballin’….

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      1. Art_DogCT

        Occurred to me that maybe they’re fine backing Joe Biden, working like hell to elect the ticket, and get him past January 20, 2025. That he likely won’t serve more than a few [days/weeks/months] is the attraction of a Biden/Harris victory for those who stan for Que Mala.

        Reply ↓
        1. ChrisFromGA

          That’s a good working theory … it doesn’t exactly seem like a ringing endorsement of Harris, though. There are polls showing her beating Trump or at least doing better than Joe.

          My theory is that this is yet another example of how once you elect someone to Congress, they become so entrenched in preserving the status quo that they abandon all pretext of serving the folks who elected them.

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    3. steppenwolf fetchit

      They think that going down with a last-minute replacement would be more likely than going down with Biden. If someone can convince them that a last-minute replacement is more likely to prevent the return of Trump than Biden himself is, then they would support making a last-minute replacement.

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    4. Carolinian

      Didn’t Biden once say vote for me or “you ain’t black”? Not only is he running the world but also sees himself an uncanny mimic of African American speech. He’s like America’s second black president after Bill Clinton.

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  3. jsn

    If you’re channeling Pelosi, switch your meds! Or take of your tinfoil hat, or put one on, whichever it is!

    This could be really damaging!

    Reply ↓
    1. Pat

      The Apple newsfeed headline is more Pelosi dumps him than the actual statement. Which I would categorize as we will ignore statements that Joe has decided until he decides the way we want.

      Reply ↓
      1. steppenwolf fetchit

        Yes, I heard that comment by Pelosi. I thought the same thing. Clearly Biden had said he has decided. She re-interprets that in her own brain as Biden needing to decide the way she would like Biden to decide. And Biden hasn’t really decided till he makes Pelosi’s preferred decision.

        Of all the people to take advice from, Little Miss NAFTA isn’t one.

        Reply ↓
        1. Amfortas the Hippie

          saw something the other day, re pelosi, that we must elect him in order to determine if he’s demented…

          as has been said many times over the last 7 years…i sure am glad im not a comedian.

          and…has anyone seen Kamala?
          is she in a closet with a bong and a margarita machine?(thats how i like to think of her)

          and remember, the only ringwraith with a proper name in all of Tolkien was the Witch King’s right hand, named Kemal.
          just sayin’…

          Reply ↓
  4. antidlc

    https://x.com/ChrisCuomo/status/1810661472042705137

    Christopher C. Cuomo
    @ChrisCuomo
    Dr. Ashish Jha (Dean, Brown University School of Public Health, and former White House COVID-19 Response Coordinator) joins me to discuss the origins, implications, and governmental responses to the COVID-19 pandemic.

    Short video at the link.
    He says there are “loud fringe voices from the left and the right,
    the left that’s convinced the pandemic is as bad as ever and we should all be masking indoors…”

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  5. IM Doc

    On the Froomkin tweet above about the visits to the WH of the Parkinson’s Doctor

    In one tweet Froomkin states the NY Times printed this despite the WH “debunking” the story.

    Then in the other tweet he states “denials by the White House”.

    It seems to me that “debunking” and “denials” are 2 completely different things – especially in this White House where lying about dementia patients is the coin of the realm.

    Has there been something I have missed about a “debunking” of this story?

    Reply ↓
    1. Socal Rhino

      No debunking. And a rather contentious discussion in the white house briefing with Biden’s spokeswoman losing her cool after effectively being called a liar covering up the president’s condition.

      Reply ↓
    2. Carolinian

      Froomkin is horrible. Just going by what I read it now seems pretty clear that Biden does have some form of Parkinson’s. Maybe Froomkin from his high perch simply doesn’t stay on top of things.

      So it’s not just Biden pooping his pants as Whoopi said and the press has to at least address reality for a change.

      Reply ↓
      1. Lambert Strether Post author

        Froomkin is a media critic, and has been for a couple of decades (I know him since the days of the blogosphere). The New York Times wrote a story saying that a neurologist paid X number of visits to the White House, purpose unknown. The White House released a letter saying that the neurologist (who had worked for previous administrations) did presentations/seminars on neurologists for people affiliated with the White House (military personnel, for example, often end up with neurological problems).

        And there the matter rests. I’m happy to call it debunked, since the White House riposte (not delivered by their idiotic and three-ring-binder encumbered press secretary) should be easy to disprove and the Times has not, to my knowledge, done so. It’s a simple, prima facie case.

        Froomkin, as a media critic, points out that front-paging a story with a headline that ends “But Why is Unclear” is absurd; it’s the literal definition of a non-story. He’s right. I don’t see why that conclusion makes him “horrid.”

        NOTE * If Froomkin is horrid, it’s because last I checked he had a bad case of TDS, which in this instance means he’s speaking against interest (presuming that leaving Biden in makes Trump more likely to win).

        Reply ↓
        1. Carolinian

          Denied is not debunked–your Froomkin quote says “thoroughly debunked.” There are stories all over the web including from the hardly Trumpie LA Times saying very persuasively that Biden does in fact have Parkinson’s. In fact see IM Doc above.

          What Froomkin should be condemning is the NYT timidity rather than their “innuendo.” His own timidity re the truth is not too impressive either. I agree with the Doc that the coverup of Biden’s medical condition is a major scandal, not a one or two day he said/he said story.

          IMO it’s not just the press but also the “press critics” who have let us down. Look at Margaret Sullivan. The MSM these days don’t seem to be a breeding ground for reformers even when they set up their own shop. One great exception: Patrick Lawrence. Hedges too knows where “the bodies are buried” at his old employer.

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    3. chris

      DOC, there has been a lot of discussion of this issue on the Breaking Points podcast. The information they’ve presented says that the letter from the WH was issued purely in response to multiple people asking KJP questions and the Press Secretary stonewalling them. As to whether there’s more to the story… I can’t possibly say. It’s possible Biden has some malady that explains his even more rapid decline recently. It’s possible he’s just old and stupid. Whatever the WH is pushing to support the president can’t possibly be assumed as factual or true. Whatever the president’s opponents are pushing should also be considered propaganda. And as far as I’m concerned, none of them should be anywhere near the Capitol running our country.

      Reply ↓
    4. Lambert Strether Post author

      See my response to Carolinian above. The White House response was not a simple denial; it came in the form of a letter describing other reasons for the neurologist to be attending the White House than examining Biden. Since a lie would be easy to demolish, and the Times hasn’t done so, I assume the Times is being tendentious, as usual.

      Reply ↓
  6. steppenwolf fetchit

    A lot of Trump-rejecters are not really Biden-supporters. They are Biden-tolerators willing to go to election with whatever the DemParty is offering in hopes of keeping Trump from returning. If they fear a Dem-defeating Eagleton effect from replacing Biden this late in the game, then they will take a chance on losing with Biden to avoid the greater chance of losing with a last-moment replacement.

    As Donald Rumsfeld once said: ” You go to election with the candidate you have, not the candidate you might want or wish to have at a later time.”

    Reply ↓
    1. Carolinian

      It’s still quite a way to November and Joe has nowhere to go but down. As I see it they are fully entitled to dump him and are fools if they don’t. If he’s going to lose anyway it really doesn’t matter for him. And doing the right thing could help the party.

      “Stonewalling”, “the coverup is worse than the crime”….these are phrases from a onetime Republican debacle.

      Reply ↓
  7. Samuel Conner

    I searched for but cannot find a nearly 40-year-old political cartoon, Iran-Contra era, snarkily assuring readers that there is nothing to worry about, as the nation is in good hands. IIRC, it showed a chain of command, with “reassuring” verbiage at each level, proceeding through Oliver North, in Marine dress uniform, to John Poindexter, in Navy dress uniform, or maybe a business suit, and finally arriving at the President, Reagan, who was, IIRC, dressed in slippers and a bathrobe, reclining in a high-backed chair, fast asleep.

    It was hilarious, but also troubling.

    I suspect that JR “abed by 8PM” Biden is not out of the woods, yet.

    Reply ↓
  8. Socal Rhino

    Re Trump’s VP choice:
    During Powell’s senate briefing yesterday, JD Vance said that economists talk about immigration easing wage inflation and that’s a euphemism for keeping wages low for working people in the US. He added that there are two obvious ways to address labor shortages, either with immigration, or by raising wages high enough to lure workers off the sidelines. Powell told him that was a constructive way to look at the issue.

    No idea who it will be and no love for Vance and his faux hillbilly origin story (if you want an earful on this check out the Trillbilly episodes on his book and again when the movie dropped) but he could resonate in some swing states.

    Reply ↓
    1. Carolinian

      It could also be SC senator Tim Scott.

      BTW Nikki has released her delegates to Trump. So much for her big rebellion.

      Reply ↓
  9. John

    I watched Biden’s speech. If he believes what he said, he is delusional … ok ill-informed by his minions. If he does not, he is a deeply cynical with murderous overtones. Doyou suppose he will bludgeon NATO into supporting the Gaza genocide?

    Reply ↓
    1. Lambert Strether Post author

      > If he believes what he said, he is delusional

      Our imperial delusions began and have persisted longer than Biden has been alive, and are shared by many people.

      Reply ↓
  10. Amfortas the Hippie

    re: the elusiveness of wild pigs.
    i can attest to this.
    the mountain out back has what must be a herd/sounder of at least 60, last time i was up there(20 year probate battle ended up with unfriendlies inheriting in and taking my lock ive had for 30+ years)…but when id go aroamin up there(always with a 357mag on my hip…often with nothing else but boots,lol)…i could never find them.
    only 150 acres…but the mountain is steep, and covers the long axis down the center.
    now, given, my cripplehood prevents the kind of scrabblin up rock slides like former times,lol,,,,but dern.

    i wanted to get a count…see how many salvageable shoats there were( to either harvest directly, or to capture and raise up in a pen)…and how many sows and boarhogs my neighbors and i would hafta dispatch to mae a dent in their numbers.
    as for capturin them to raise…by all accounts, they are at worst 2 generations away from domestication…both ways.
    ie…you capture the shoats…raise em up, and the next or the next after generation has learned to live with humans.
    bacon is one of the things that is missing from what we produce.
    and the little wild ones(like up to around 30#) are good eating….bigger, and theyre nasty and full of worms and ticks and such.

    Reply ↓
    1. Amfortas the Hippie

      and, while i am definitely NOT a rightwinger…i like Oren…
      heres from yesterday, or the day before…in the NYT, no less:
      https://archive.ph/qCEeY

      “Another American Compass poll found that Americans agree by 10 to one that “we need a stronger manufacturing sector,” most often because it “is important to a healthy, growing, innovative economy.” Asked to choose, most say they would much rather pay higher prices to strengthen domestic manufacturing than to combat climate change. Only the upper class was evenly split on this question. Is America a “nation of immigrants”? Perhaps. But while most Americans believe that immigration is a good thing for the country, at no time on record have more than around one-third wanted to increase immigration levels; support for decreasing the level is almost always much stronger.
      The important feature of all these preferences is that they are inherently valid. No set of facts or statistical analyses, to which an expert might have superior access, overrides what people actually value and what trade-offs they would choose to make. Leaders might seek to shape public opinion and alter preferences — indeed, that is part of leading — but they must yield to the outcome. Their obligation is to pursue the community’s priorities, not their own.”

      further evidence that the whole right/left dichotomy is dead.
      we need new words.
      and Oren actually says elsewhere that its really about the Elite vs everybody else.
      what a strange world the bosses have given us.

      Reply ↓
  12. JM

    For the WHO video I find it interesting that they forgot to fill in the child’s pants with a color – it just has a blue outline and you can see the basic modeling of the bus seat. Similarly with the person just in frame to the left, except it’s their shirt.

    Seems like everything is going just fine over there. SMH

    Reply ↓

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