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2:00PM Water Cooler 7/17/2024

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By Lambert Strether of Corrente

Patient readers, my liquid brunch gave me a case of the slows. More to come! –lambert

Bird Song of the Day

Common Nightingale, El Estrecho PNat–Punta Camorro, Cádiz, Andalucía, Spain.

* * *

In Case You Might Miss…

(1) Crooks remains an enigma.

(2) Unelecting Biden: irresistable force, immovable object.

(3) Republican National Convention and J.D. Vance.

(4) How to sing.

* * *

Look for the Helpers

“After a National Anthem Flub, Singer Says She’s Going to Rehab” [New York Times]. • Here is a wonderful thread in response that does not mock the singer, but explains how to sing:

(The thread is gigantic, so click through for an image of the complete thread.) Do we have readers who sing, who can comment?

* * *

My email address is down by the plant; please send examples of there (“Helpers” in the subject line). In our increasingly desperate and fragile neoliberal society, everyday normal incidents and stories of “the communism of everyday life” are what I am looking for (and not, say, the Red Cross in Hawaii, or even the UNWRA in Gaza). –>

Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

* * *

Trump Assassination Attempt

“Three days after attempted assassination, Trump shooter remains an elusive enigma” [Associated Press]. “Even after the FBI cracked into Thomas Matthew Crooks’ cellphone, scoured his computer, home and car, and interviewed more than 100 people, the mystery of why he opened fire on Trump’s rally Saturday, wounding the GOP nominee, remained as elusive as the moment it happened…. So far, there has been no public disclosure the shooter left any writings, suicide note, social media screed or any other indicator explaining his reasons for targeting Trump. A law enforcement official briefed on the ongoing investigation told The Associated Press on condition of anonymity that Crooks’ phone had not immediately yielded any meaningful clues related to motive, or whether he acted alone or with others.” Also: “After graduating from high school in 2022, Crooks went on to the Community College of Allegheny County, earning an associate’s degree with honors in engineering science in May.” • All curious. AP also includes Crooks itinerary on the of the shooting, but does not, as some other sources do, citing the FBI, indicate that he purchasd a ladder there (or walked a mile to the shooting site, the warehouse).

“Exclusive: Secret Service ramped up security after intel of Iran plot to assassinate Trump; no known connection to shooting” [CNN]. “‘Secret Service learned of the increased threat [from Iran] from this threat stream,’ the official told CNN. ‘NSC directly contacted USSS at a senior level to be absolutely sure they continued to track the latest reporting. USSS shared this information with the detail lead, and the Trump campaign was made aware of an evolving threat. In response to the increased threat, Secret Service surged resources and assets for the protection of former President Trump. All of this was in advance of Saturday.'” • So the operation at Butler was above baseline? Really?

2024

Less than four months to go!

Friday’s RCP Poll Averages: CTUTP

Second post-debate polling: No massive swing to Trump that I can see. It would be hilarious if the Biden Debate debacle had exactly the same effect as Trump’s 34 bazillion felony convictions, i.e., none, both parties are so dug in. Of course, the Biden “buzz” (yesterday) is bad, and may yet have an effect. And who, may I ask, is making the buzz? Swing States (more here) still Brownian-motioning around. Of course, it goes without saying that these are all state polls, therefore bad, and most of the results are within the margin of error.

* * *

Unelecting Biden:

The Calendar

“DNC says no virtual voting to nominate Biden will begin before August” [The Hill]. “In a letter to members of the DNC Rules Committee, obtained by The Hill, co-chairs of the committee wrote, ‘we have confirmed with the Democratic National Committee and the Democratic National Convention that no virtual voting will begin before August 1.'” • Meanwhile, this is how DNC chair Jaime Harrison is spending his time:

“Scoop: How the DNC plans to run out the clock for Biden” [Axios]. “The DNC’s current plan is to train state party chairs next week on how to conduct the electronic voting in a secure way. The window for voting is likely to open on July 29 and conclude by Aug. 5, according to people familiar with the matter. If the working plan for a ‘virtual roll call’ holds, Biden just has to outlast his party’s critics for about two more weeks…. Some Biden advisers think Biden can run out the clock on the uprising within the party, as long as he survives just a few more days. Media attention already has shifted from Biden after the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump on Saturday. The selection of Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) as Trump’s running mate will further divert attention from Biden. Congressional Democrats say their concern over Biden’s candidacy has taken a backseat since Trump was shot. Hours before the shooting in Butler, Pa., Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) paid a visit to Biden, but neither side gave much of a readout. Schumer called it a ‘good meeting.'”

Electeds

Patient readers: This entire section really ought to go into a post as a timeline; an overly dynamic situation evolved out from under me! Worth a reader to see the players, and also to see the birth, short life, and death of a sternly worded letter (and the calcuations that led to its early demise). These people are as twisty as corkscrews!)

“Scoop: Biden rebellion resurfaces on Capitol Hill” [Axios]. “A letter [more below] circulating among congressional Democrats argues that there is “no legal justification” for an early virtual roll call after Ohio moved its filing deadline past the date of the Democratic convention. ‘We respectfully but emphatically request that you cancel any plans for an accelerated ‘virtual roll call’ and further refrain from any extraordinary procedures that could be perceived as curtailing legitimate debate,’ it says…. Reps. Susan Wild (D-Pa.), Mike Quigley (D-Ill) and Pat Ryan (D-N.Y.) told Axios they plan to sign onto the letter. Quigley and Ryan have both publicly called on Biden to withdraw. Rep. Mike Levin (D-Calif.), who told Biden he should drop out during a call with Hispanic Caucus members on Friday, will sign the letter as well, his spokesperson told Axios. One House Democrat told Axios they have received the letter and are considering signing on, and a senior aide to another House Democrat said their boss will sign on. Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.) [more below], who told Biden on a Progressive Caucus call last Saturday that he worries the president is being shielded from bad news, has been circulating the letter to colleagues, according to one lawmaker.” • We’ll see how many sign and how soon. Dogs barking from their kennels are not very impressive.

“Biden Group Therapy” [Puck]. Well worth a read. “Right before the Trump rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, a group of moderate Hill Democrats held a ‘tense’ Zoom call with the White House to express their concern about Biden’s ability to win—and their ability to win, should he tank and take them down with him. ‘The call was even worse than the debate,’ one of the participants told me. ‘He was rambling; he’d start an answer then lose his train of thought, then would just say ‘whatever.’ He really couldn’t complete an answer. I lost a ton of respect for him.’ A second participant in the call confirmed this characterization…. The Biden campaign pushed back strenuously on these members’ characterization of Biden as a rambling old man, sending me a half-dozen tweets from other call participants, including Debbie Wasserman Schultz, a fierce Biden loyalist, who said the president was ‘sharp, forceful.'” If I were to flip through the “Trustworthy Sources” section of my Rolodex, no moderate Hill Democrat would be in. But nor would Debbie Wasserman Schultz. So here we are! More: ” The Democrats are neither here nor there, neither all in nor all out, neither fully supporting their nominee nor ditching him, a situation perfectly summed up by a Russian expression: a turd stuck in an eddy.” Indeed! But: “‘[T]he events [dear boy, events]’ in Pennsylvania on Saturday—as they are known in Washington-speak—at least temporarily ended talk that Biden might step aside. ‘The Biden replacement talk? That’s over,’ said a source close to the administration. ‘I think the assassination attempt took the pressure off for a critical 72 hours. Also, the Hill never got its act together—and death by 270 cuts doesn’t work.'” Concluding: “For now, though, the hand-wringing has died down, at least in public, and Biden seems to have emerged intact. ‘It feels that way for now, absent any public meltdowns,’ said one Hill Democrat. ‘Until the actual delegate count is done, there will be the whispers, stories, etcetera. It’s muted now, but we have a few more weeks before it’s Pelosi and Schumer [or still can? See below] could have done it if they showed up with 50 folks in their pockets,’ said the source close to the administration…. So why didn’t they, I asked? ‘It’s hard to see the way time is ticking when you’re in the midst of it,’ the source responded.” That’s silly. Pelosi and Schumer clearly understand the calendar, even the donors and the pundits don’t. The real reason: ‘I also think there is still reasonable uncertainty about whether Kamala Harris is a better candidate.’ Said the source close to Democratic leadership, ‘The Dems lack the stones to force him out, particularly the Dems in Congress.‘ But it’s not over yet, and as the Hill source suggested, the whispers haven’t stopped, even if Biden has made clear he’s going to white-knuckle this out. ‘He also said he would drop if he saw data saying he can’t win,’ said the campaign source. ‘He’s about to see a lot of it. The next round of polls will probably be apocalyptic.'” • The polls will certainly be apocapyptic — if the pollsters are players like the press. We shall see! (Also, generally the “lost a lot of respect” trope is only deployed where no respect existed to begin with.) But about that letter—

“Pelosi privately fields battleground Dem calls as she works to address Biden crisis” [Politico]. “Privately,” “privately.” I see that word all the time in this story… “One House Democrat anxious about President Joe Biden’s effect on the 2024 campaign recently sought out guidance from a trusted party leader: Nancy Pelosi. This lawmaker, who represents a swing seat and was granted anonymity to describe private conversations, said Pelosi asked detailed questions about congressional district-level polling and was ‘very receptive’ to concerns that Biden couldn’t win in November. The member ended the phone call with the distinct impression that Pelosi believed Biden should exit the presidential race. This lawmaker said the former speaker offered to talk to any other members of Congress who wanted to reach out to her with concerns — though Pelosi cautioned that she would not be initiating those conversations herself….. Those who have known Pelosi for decades are predicting that she is, indeed, playing a game of ‘3-D chess,’ according to five Democratic lawmakers and senior aides. She built a reputation for being incredibly strategic during her reign atop the caucus, which included managing the two impeachments of Donald Trump and passing enormous, complex bills like the Affordable Care Act. It didn’t go unnoticed, for instance, that dozens of Democrats are now clamoring to be part of a letter to delay Biden’s nomination process — led by Pelosi ally Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.), whose sprawling district is just north of San Francisco.” • The Republican National Convention ends Thursday. It could be that really bad polling could emerge Friday, and were Huffman’s sternly worded letter to be made public Friday as well, that would blow up in time for the Sunday talk shows. To be effective, the letter would need to be signed, I assume by Pelosi and caucus leader Hakeem Jeffries at the top (and if the caucus leader wouldn’t sign, what good would the letter do?). Pelosi and Jeffries would sign only if an appreciable percentage of the remaining 113 – 2 = 111 Democrats had been brought to sign (i.e., were that desperate). Considering only quantity, not quality, how many is “appreciable”? 111 * 50% = 56. With that number, and the two signatures from leadership, I’d say Biden would be toast. How about 111 * 25% = 28, basically where we are now? I’d guess the leadership wouldn’t sign, the letter is a damp squib, and Biden lives to blurt another day. The dogs bark and the caravan moves on.

UPDATE Aaugh! “House Democrats scrap letter opposing early DNC vote” [Axios]. “The letter, which was set to be open for signatures until the end of the day on Wednesday, had “north of 30″ signatures as of Wednesday morning, according to a lawmaker familiar with the matter.” • So I was right on the math, which I implore readers to believe I worked out before I hit hte tab with this link in my browser.

“Prominent Dem Schiff urges Biden to step aside as party aims to nominate president before convention” [Associated Press]. “‘While the choice to withdraw from the campaign is President Biden’s alone, I believe it is time for him to pass the torch,’ Schiff, a key Nancy Pelosi ally who is running for Senate this year, said in a statement. ‘And in doing so, secure his legacy of leadership by allowing us to defeat Donald Trump in the upcoming election.’… Schiff’s announcement comes after Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries encouraged the Democratic National Convention to delay for a week plans to hold the virtual vote to renominate Biden, which could have taken place as soon as Sunday, according to two people familiar with the situation who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private conversations.”

Donors

“Megadonors Are Plotting to Change Biden’s Mind With Money. Will It Work?” [New York Times]. “For ultrarich Democrats, this is the golden age of political scheming. The last three weeks since President Biden wilted during the first presidential debate have uncorked a nervous energy that has stirred almost every major Democratic donor and their advisers, turning billionaires ensconced on summer vacations into crafty political animals. They’re calling every major politician they know, encouraging them to call for Mr. Biden’s removal. They’re dangling money to members of Congress who say the right things, and withholding money from those who do not. And even the most reclusive donors are talking to reporters, sometimes on the record, about the turmoil within the party establishment.” But there’s a history here: “[E}ver since Donald J. Trump ran for president in 2016, major business-friendly Republican donors have learned the limits of their powers — unable to dislodge him from the party’s nomination that year, nor able to do so eight years later. Now, Democratic megadonors are learning some of the same lessons, especially during a time when Mr. Biden has shown some ability to raise significant money from small-dollar givers. For all their riches and ambitions, many Democratic contributors and their big-money advisers have become resigned to the notion that their influence is fairly limited, and are trying not to be naïve. A sense of powerlessness pervades.” • That’s a damn shame. I hate to think of billionaires being powerless.

“Top Democratic strategist pushed reporters to consider ‘staged’ shooting” [Semafor]. “The scale of [LinkedIn founder Reid] Hoffman’s political donations isn’t public but [adviser Dmitri] Mehlhorn said on a recent private conference call that ‘Reid and I have invested nine figures of our own money to prevent Trump from getting back into office.’ (The money appears to be largely Hoffman’s.)… In an email Saturday at 7:34 pm that appeared to be addressed to sympathetic journalists, and which was also sent to Semafor, Mehlhorn wrote that one “possibility — which feels horrific and alien and absurd in America, but is quite common globally — is that this ‘shooting’ was encouraged and maybe even staged so Trump could get the photos and benefit from the backlash. This is a classic Russian tactic…. The other possibility, Mehlhorn wrote, ‘is that some crazy anti-Trumper in this chaotic moment decided to assassinate the former President.’ Mehlhorn, who co-founded a fund called ‘Investing in US’ with Hoffman, made clear his impulse was toward the false flag theory…. Hoffman and Mehlhorn emerged as central figures Democratic politics in the Trump era, directing uncounted millions to both mainstream Democratic causes, like Joe Biden’s campaign operations, and more exotic and controversial private-sector efforts, including ersatz news sites. The origins of Hoffman’s and Mehlhorn’s main organization, Investing In Us, date to early 2017.” • I think we should give consideration to the idea that plenty of billionaire donors, besides being ignorant and incapable of due diligence — proof positive: they thought Biden was in good shape — are nuttier than fruitcakes.

Pollsters

“Playbook: New polling bolsters ‘Dump Biden’ push” [Politico]. From BlueLabs Analytics (whoever they are). “The strongest potential candidates are (in alphabetical order) Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly [who?], Maryland Gov. Wes Moore [who?], Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro [who?] and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer [“Big Gretch”]. All four outpaced Biden ‘by roughly 5 points across battleground states. This data supports the views of strategists like James Carville and those arguing that blindly rallying around Harris would be as big a mistake as blindly supporting Biden’s reelection was. ‘Nearly twice as many voters say delegates should nominate the best candidate over picking the next in line,’ the memo says. This faction of the #DumpBiden movement wants an open process to replace Biden — who, by the way, still says he has no intention of stepping aside.” Who would say “picking the next in line” (I mean, besides a Democratic loyalist). More: “”The shooting clearly helped the strategy of Biden’s team to run out the clock,’ this Democratic lawmaker said. ‘It also stopped what would have been a number of members going public after the very unhelpful calls with members on Saturday [see above]. But it’s not over. Senior D leaders have not changed their minds that Biden needs to get out. I think a final push will come once the R convention ends on Thursday.” • See comments above above on Pelosi, and Huffman’s sternly worded letter — now defunct! (My choice: Sheldon Whitehouse. “Let’s put a Whitehouse in the White House!”)

* * *

Republican National Convention:

Yesterday, we did have a story about how happy everybody at the Convention seemed to be…. Not that there’s anything wrong with that!

* * *

Trump (R): “‘A Different Donald Trump’ Beams as Rivals Become ‘Converts'” [RealClearPolitics]. “[I]f there is one thing Trump has notably not done this week, it is gloat. He has said comparatively little since the attempt on his life Saturday, exuding a gracious silence – perhaps even a magnanimous stoicism. A source who spoke with the former president at length the day after he dodged an assassin’s bullet reported talking to ‘a different Donald Trump, but in the best way possible.’ Granted anonymity to speak freely, this individual, who has worked closely with Trump for nearly a decade, described a ‘weirdly counterintuitive’ phenomenon whereby ‘he almost dies, he miraculously survives, and it becomes even less about him.’ Perhaps that explains the last-minute invitation to Nikki Haley. She was not originally slated to speak at the RNC, but after the assassination attempt, the Trump campaign asked her to come speak. It was simultaneously an attempt at party and national unity, an overture made more remarkable considering the sheer bitterness of their rivalry…. But all now seems forgiven, or at least forgotten. At this convention, things just feel altered, said Republican pollster Frank Luntz. ‘And it feels different, which means people are hearing something different,’ he told RCP. ‘That hasn’t happened for years.’ What changed among the Republican faithful? ‘Their hero was almost taken away from them,’ he replied, an occurrence that ‘humanized Trump and humbled his supporters.’ The prize for good behavior may very well be a landslide, the famous pollster continued. ‘If Trump can get through a day without attacking her, that’s the secret ingredient for the rest of this campaign,’ he said. ‘Add Haley voters to Trump’s total, and he is unbeatable.'” • If Trump manages to morph from a Heel to a Face, that would be remarkable. Even if this is only the party line, it’s still remarkable!

Trump (R): “In Private Speech, J.D. Vance Said the “Devil Is Real” and Praised Alex Jones as a Truth-Teller” [ProPublica]. “Sen. J.D. Vance, whom Donald Trump named as his vice presidential running mate Monday, told a group of influential young conservatives in a closed-door speech in 2021 that they should stand up for ‘nonconventional people’ who speak truth, such as Infowars founder Alex Jones. ‘If you listen to Rachel Maddow every night, the basic worldview that you have is that MAGA grandmas who have family dinners on Sunday and bake apple pies for their family are about to start a violent insurrection against this country,” Vance said. “But if you listen to Alex Jones every day, you would believe that a transnational financial elite controls things in our country, that they hate our society, and oh, by the way, a lot of them are probably sex perverts too.’ Vance went on, ‘Sorry, ladies and gentlemen, that’s actually a hell of a lot more true than Rachel Maddow’s view of society.'” Where’s the lie? More: “He said that every person in attendance for his speech believed ‘something that’s a little crazy.’ In his case, he said, ‘I believe the devil is real and that he works terrible things in our society. That’s a crazy conspiracy theory to a lot of very well-educated people in this country right now.’ Vance made these remarks at a September 2021 gathering of the Teneo Network, an invitation-only group of young conservatives that counts elected officials, pro athletes, financial executives and media figures among its members. Vance joined Teneo six years ago. ProPublica and Documented obtained a video recording of his 30-minute speech and question-and-answer session, which has not been previously reported.” • I’m going to let this link stand in for a deluge of Democrat oppo on Vance that’s drowning my timeline, most of it not very interesting (and less interesting than the reviews of Hillbilly Elegy. It’s interesting that both Chris Arnade’s Dignity (reviewed at NC here) came out in roughly the same time frame, yet Vance was annointed the working class whisperer, presumbly because he went to Yale and then into finance. IMNSHO, Arnade’s is the better, more humane, book, and far more respectful of the working class).

* * *

“US Vice President Harris, Vance speak as debate date in question” [Reuters]. “U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris has asked former President Donald Trump’s running mate, J.D. Vance, to join an Aug. 13 debate hosted by CBS, a Biden-Harris campaign official said on Tuesday…. The Trump campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment and the Biden campaign did not comment. The Democratic vice president had previously accepted terms for a CBS (PARA.O), opens new tab debate on either July 23 or Aug. 13, while Trump’s campaign had sought a debate on Fox News that President Joe Biden’s camp had said they would not accept. The July date for a CBS debate is now off the table, according to a person familiar with the matter.” • The August 13 date is before the Democrat National Convention starting August 19, presenting the faint possibility that a “Harris for President” balloon could be inflated if she does very well against Vance. She was a terrible campaigner in the 2020 election, but a good debater (“‘That little girl was me’: Kamala Harris, Joe Biden spar over desegregation at Democratic debate“; “Kamala Harris’ 2020 campaign now selling ‘That Little Girl Was Me’ T-shirts following viral exchange with Joe Biden“). Or her staff prepared her well, not necessarily a given.

* * *

“Early voting dates, 2024” [BallotPedia]. For reference, let me print this again, revised for the current list of swing states:

Given that one wishes to influence early voting in Virginia, an “October Surprise” should happen in early September. Arizona and Georgia, late September. (Of course, early voters being more like to be committed partisans — “I’ve seen enough!” — a “surprise” might not influence them at all. Presumably all this is being gamed out in some back room.)

* * *

“Billionaires Take Sides as Turbulent Presidential Race Heats Up” [Bloomberg]. “The big fundraising arms of the campaigns and parties plus some key super PACs filed their quarterly reports to the Federal Election Commission on Monday. Here’s how they stack up: Biden and the Democratic Party raised $263 million in the second quarter and had $240 million cash on hand.Future Forward PAC, his allied super PAC, next reports on Saturday.

Though out-raised in the quarter, Biden seemed to be stemming the tide in June, when he raised $127 million to Trump’s $112 million. He held a glitzy fundraiser in Los Angeles with former President Barack Obama that month, and raked in big donations from filmmaker JJ Abrams and actress Julia Roberts. Real estate investor Wayne Jordan, philanthropist Quinn Delaney and Philip Munger, the son of Warren Buffett’s longtime business partner, the late Charles Munger, also gave in June. The big Democratic super PACs that back Biden, including Future Forward PAC and American Bridge, won’t report until Saturday…. Trump and the RNC raised $331 million in May, but did not disclose total cash on hand.Make America Great Again Inc. super PAC next reports on Saturday. Following his guilty verdict on charges of falsifying business records to conceal hush-money payments to an adult film star, Trump enjoyed a fundraising boom. In addition to the millions raised online, Blackstone Group CEO Stephen Schwarzman, private equity veteran John Childs and Chamath Palihapitiya of Social+Capital Partnership LLC were among the financial industry figures who wrote six-figure checks for Trump’s campaign and the GOP the day after the verdict.” • Of course, this doesn’t take into account the efforts of the Committee to Unelect President Biden….

* * *

“Exclusive-Four in five Americans fear country is sliding into chaos, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds” [Reuters]. Post-assasination: “80% of voters – including similar shares of Democrats and Republicans – said they agreed with a statement that ‘the country is spiraling out of the control.’ The poll, which was conducted online, surveyed 1,202 U.S. adults nationwide, including 992 registered voters.”

Our Famously Free Press

“Editor at ‘major news outlet’ tells media to bury iconic photo of Trump after assassination attempt: report” [FOX]. “An unnamed photo editor at a major news outlet believes it is ‘dangerous’ for the media to highlight the historic photo of former President Trump standing tall after the assassination attempt Saturday, calling it ‘free PR’ for the Trump campaign, according to a report…. The former president is seen raising a fist to the crowd of supporters as he was rushed off the stage with blood smeared across his face, Secret Service flanking him, an American flag flying above his head. Associated Press photographer Evan Vucci captured the image that immediately went viral and landed on newspaper front pages while dominating digital news sites and social media platforms across the world.” See discussion of Vucci’s photo at NC here. (Axios has a good discussion of the other two of the top three photos from the event here, from the photographers’ standpoint). More: “Trump himself addressed the now world-famous photo during an interview with the New York Post on Monday, quipping ‘A lot of people say it’s the most iconic photo they’ve ever seen. They’re right and I didn’t die. Usually you have to die to have an iconic picture.'”

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

* * *

Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

* * *

Airborne Transmission: Covid

Outdoor air is safer. But not completely!

Transmission: H5N1

Hat tip, Big Ag:

* * *

TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

Wastewater
This week[1] CDC July 8: Last Week[2] CDC June 24 (until next week):

Variants [3] CDC July 6 Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC July 8

Hospitalization
New York[5] New York State, data July 12: National [6] CDC June 22:

Positivity
National[7] Walgreens July 15: Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic July 6:
Travelers Data
Positivity[9] CDC June 24: Variants[10] CDC June 24:

Deaths
Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11]CDC July 6: Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12]CDC July 6:

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, with hot spots annotated. Worse than two weeks ago.

[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) LB.1 coming up on the outside.

[4] (ER) This is the best I can do for now. At least data for the entire pandemic is presented.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Now acceleration, which is compatible with a wastewater decrease, but still not a good feeling .(The New York city area has form; in 2020, as the home of two international airports (JFK and EWR) it was an important entry point for the virus into the country (and from thence up the Hudson River valley, as the rich sought to escape, and then around the country through air travel.)

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). This is the best I can do for now. Note the assumption that Covid is seasonal is built into the presentation, which in fact shows that Covid is not seasonal. At least data for the entire pandemic is presented.

[7] (Walgreens) Still going up! (Because there is data in “current view” tab, I think white states here have experienced “no change,” as opposed to have no data.)

[8] (Cleveland) Still going up!

[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Up. Those sh*theads at CDC have changed the chart so that it doesn’t even run back to 1/21/23, as it used to, but now starts 1/1/24. There’s also no way to adjust the time rasnge. CDC really doesn’t want you to be able to take a historical view of the pandemic, or compare one surge to another. In an any case, that’s why the shape of the curve has changed.

[10] (Travelers: Variants) Same deal. Those sh*theads.

[11] Deaths low, but positivity up.

[12] Deaths low, ED up.

Stats Watch

Manufacturing: “United States Industrial Production MoM” [Trading Economics]. “Industrial production in the US rose 0.6 percent from a month earlier in June 2024, more than market expectations of a 0.3 percent increase. Manufacturing output, which makes up 78% of total production, advanced 0.4 percent, compared with market forecast of a 0.2 percent increase. Also, mining output went up 0.3 percent and the output of utilities increased 2.8 percent. Capacity utilization moved up to 78.8 percent in June, a rate that is 0.9 percentage point below its long-run (1972–2023) average.”

Housing: “United States Housing Starts” [Trading Economics]. “Housing starts in the US rose by 3% from the previous month to an annualized rate of 1,314,000 in June of 2024, rebounding from the revised 4.6% decline in the previous month and firmly above market expectations of 1,300,000 starts. The growth was carried by a 22% surge in starts of buildings with 5 units or more, totaling an annual rate of 360,000. This offset a 2.2% drop in single-unit starts, totaling a rate of 980,000. Among different parts of the country, starts soared in the Northeast (34.4% to 121,000) and the Midwest (26.8% to 194,000), while dropping in the West (-6.1% to 306,000) and the South (-1.7% to 732,000).”

* * *

Tech: “Does Generative AI Facilitate Investor Trading? Evidence from ChatGPT Outages” (PDF) [SSRN]. “In this paper, we use ChatGPT outages to investigate whether investors rely on generative artificial intelligence (GAI) to perform trading-related tasks and the associated impact on stock price informativeness. We first document a significant decline in stock trading volume during ChatGPT outages and find that the effect is stronger for firms with corporate news released immediately before or during the outages. We further document similar declines in the shortrun price impact, return variance, and bid-ask spreads, consistent with a reduction in informed trading during the outage periods. Lastly, we use trading volume changes during outages to construct a firm-level measure of the intensity of GAI-assisted trading and provide early evidence of a positive effect of GAI-assisted trading on long-run stock price informativeness. Overall, our findings contribute to the debate on the potential effects of AI trading models on financial market stability.” • Hmm. I don’t play the ponies, but those who do may find this interesting. Readers?

* * *

Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 54 Neutral (previous close: 63 Greed) [CNN]. One week ago: 54 (Neutral). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Jul 17 at 1:47:37 PM ET.

News of the Wired

“The Last Avant-Garde” [Los Angeles Review of Books]. “[Dominique Routhier’s] With and Against is part of a recent flurry of books urging a reassessment of the would-be revolutionary movement known as the Situationist International (SI)…. Any valid take on the SI has to view them as a logical next step in a lineage that reaches back at least to the Dada movement and evolved through Surrealism, Russian Futurism and Constructivism, Bauhaus, and the Lettrism movement, from which many of SI’s leading members emerged. All, in their own way, explicitly defined revolution as a breakdown in the barriers between life and work on one hand and fully liberated human creativity on the other…. If the spectacle has wormed its way into our lives and consciousness more than the situationists ever could have anticipated, though, then it is going to require far more hard thinking and sweat to keep running. The recuperation and atrophy of modes and spaces that would allow people to push back is real, but the ability to refuse remains. …. Plenty already know that technology won’t save us. The question of what will remains.” • See especially Guy Debord’s 1967 fun and easy Society of the Spectacle.

* * *

Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From Desert Dog:

Desert Dog writes: “Waiting for a puff of wind.” As are we all!

* * *

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About Lambert Strether

Readers, I have had a correspondent characterize my views as realistic cynical. Let me briefly explain them. I believe in universal programs that provide concrete material benefits, especially to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime example, but tuition-free college and a Post Office Bank also fall under this heading. So do a Jobs Guarantee and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can deliver on such programs, because the two are different flavors of neoliberalism (“Because markets”). I don’t much care about the “ism” that delivers the benefits, although whichever one does have to put common humanity first, as opposed to markets. Could be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don’t much care, as long as the benefits are delivered. To me, the key issue — and this is why Medicare for All is always first with me — is the tens of thousands of excess “deaths from despair,” as described by the Case-Deaton study, and other recent studies. That enormous body count makes Medicare for All, at the very least, a moral and strategic imperative. And that level of suffering and organic damage makes the concerns of identity politics — even the worthy fight to help the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton’s wars created — bright shiny objects by comparison. Hence my frustration with the news flow — currently in my view the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the other by out-of-power liberals and their allies in the State and in the press — a news flow that constantly forces me to focus on matters that I regard as of secondary importance to the excess deaths. What kind of political economy is it that halts or even reverses the increases in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I am also very hopeful that the continuing destruction of both party establishments will open the space for voices supporting programs similar to those I have listed; let’s call such voices “the left.” Volatility creates opportunity, especially if the Democrat establishment, which puts markets first and opposes all such programs, isn’t allowed to get back into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I love the tactical level, and secretly love even the horse race, since I’ve been blogging about it daily for fourteen years, but everything I write has this perspective at the back of it.

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152 comments

    2. lyman alpha blob

      Darn, I thought it was going to be something new.

      By that logic, many, many other politicians also have CIA ties due to Bezos’ contracts with the spooks. You don’t get those massive government contracts by not spreading $$$ around to politicians with hat in hand – https://www.opensecrets.org/donor-lookup/results?name=jeffrey+bezos And I do think that logic is correct.

      Does make one wonder who’s really running the show here, the politicians we vote for, or the spooks, doesn’t it?

      1. britzklieg

        Indeed. If there is gonna be an attempt to paint the GOP as somehow scarily compromised by ties to the CIA it falls flat on its face before it even starts… ffs Obama had suspicious ties to the CIA. In large measure the entire govt IS the CIA. And I’ll go on record and suggest that “polls” (lol) showing no increased support for Trump post assassination attempt are bs.

        Increasing number of Dems calling for Biden to quit, including Adam Schiff.

        Biden is toast and so are the Dems, imho… they might have a better chance by replacing the mummified ghoul now passing for POTUS but only slightly better. The pooh has hit the fan bigtime and the fatal wound suffered by the Dems is entirely self-inflicted… not that they will ever admit it.

        My vote for Stein will accomplish nothing.

        1. caucus99percenter

          > If there is gonna be an attempt to paint the GOP as somehow scarily compromised by ties to the CIA it falls flat on its face before it even starts

          This.

          Markos Moulitsas Zúniga, the founder-owner of DailyKos, actually ”tried out” (was in training) for the CIA before (supposedly) turning his back on it to go into Dem-party organizing and investment in social media.

    3. Bugs

      What’s wrong with Thiel?

      Every male Citizen should have a Blood Boy™

      Don’t you want to Live Forever?

  2. Carolinian

    Taibbi and Kirn live blogged the convention last night and the no subscription needed video can be watched here.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IZLKojlOVpU

    They snark on the speeches.

    And re Nikki–maybe she can become UN ambassador again. Wouldn’t that be just peachy?

    Meanwhile the NYT is still pushing hard on Biden defenestration. Clearly the future of democracy NATO is at stake and the Timespersons do love them some NATO.

    1. ChrisFromGA

      Good line in there from Kirn:

      (paraphrasing) Mike Johnson is so non-descript he could walk around a fairground with an assault rifle and nobody would notice.

      1. Mark Gisleson

        Like I keep saying, Johnson is the perfect Speaker of the House. Most take years to learn how to be that invisible. Also note he wasted no time authorizing a Congressional investigation into the assassination attempt.

        Not saying I’m going to like what Speaker Johnson does in the coming years, just saying that he is being seriously misunderestimated.

      2. The Rev Kev

        Same applies for the UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Everybody forgets his speeches while he is actually making them.

  3. ChrisFromGA

    As one of the miscreants around here changing song lyrics, I feel that we have been focusing a lot on the usual suspects, and so I spread some love around here.

    Sung to the melody from “Rasputin” by Boney M.

    Nikki Queen

    There lived a certain gal in Columbia long ago
    She was Boeing’s girl, in her eyes a flaming glow
    Most people looked at her with puzzlement and fear
    But to never-Trump simps, she was such a lovely dear

    She could preach the gospel like Dick Cheney
    Full of ecstasy and fire
    But, like Kamala she wasn’t brainy
    Neocons desire

    [Chorus]

    Ra-ra, Nikki-queen, lover of the war machine
    There was a cat, that really was gone
    Ra-ra, Nikki-queen, warmongers nocturnal dream
    It was a shame how she carried on

    She ruled the Carolinas; never mind the Border Tsar
    But the book deal, man, it was really wunderbar
    In all affairs of state, she was Bibi’s gal to please
    But she was real great when she had warlords to appease

    For the Chosen, she was a wheeler-dealer
    Though she’d heard the things they’d done
    She believed a little Nakba would heal ’em
    So, she shouted “Finish them!”

    [Chorus]

    [Bridge]

    But when she couldn’t win a primary despite her hunger for power
    It became known to more and more people
    The demands to send this girl back to a think tank
    Became louder and louder!

    Hey! Hey! Hey! Hey!
    Hey! Hey! Hey! Hey!
    Hey! Hey! Hey! Hey!

    “This girl’s just gotta go”, declared her enemies
    But neo-cons begged, “Don’t you try to do it, please”
    No doubt this Nikki-queen had lots of hidden charms
    Though she was no Reagan, they just fell into her arms
    Then, one night, some men of higher standing
    Set a trap, they’re not to blame
    “Come, endorse the Don” they kept demanding
    Now she just looks really lame

    Ra-ra, Nikki-queen, lover of the war machine
    There was a cat, that really was gone
    Ra-ra, Nikki-queen, warmongers nocturnal dream
    It was a shame how she carried on

  4. IM Doc

    About the Grinder app issue at the Repub National Convention……

    I happen to know a superdelegate to the DNC personally. Apparently, one of the demographic groups that has just collapsed among Dems is gay men. Not so much women. Gay men. Climbing on the Trump train in unprecedented numbers.

    I guess promulgating a regime where the young kids under 18 that are the most likely to be gay when they grow up end up being sexually mutilated before they even have a clear idea of who they are – does not sit well with the elder members of that group ( See any number of Andrew Sullivan columns for the past year). I have many gay men in my practice and they are horrified to the point of bringing this up to me constantly. “We we so much better off when we were just LGB. I look at the flag today and tears come to my eye.”

    Unfortunately, I now have the unpleasant task of dealing with three of these now 20 somethings who have had large parts of their lives destroyed – bleeding and pus coming from their tender areas, the inability to enjoy sex in any way, and the realization that the normies really do want to have kids and you will be alone for the rest of your life. And all 3 had this done to themselves before 18. Just an incredible tragedy.

    And then having the party and various blue state officials jump on to laws supporting the use of genital mutilation of children and all the pronoun and identity stuff and not letting the parents know ( the children’s last line of self defense) is just incomprehensible. Allowing the kids under 18 to make up their own minds about the use of drugs that will cause permanent life long damage and not even letting the parents know. It is also against every shred of medical ethics present for a very long time. And remember, these are the same people screaming for decades about genital mutilation in other country’s kids.

    You simply could not make up this insanity if you even tried.

    And the sad thing is that America now stands virtually alone in this mutilation of children. But our big medical boards like the AAP and ABIM will SANCTION docs for even saying a word about the tragedies around them. If you had told me 30 years ago this would be an issue today I would have laughed out loud.

    And then we wonder why the gay population is beginning to look askance at the whole thing. And then they dare to do this kind of tweet. The entire strategic plan of the Dem Party this cycle has LOSER written all over it.

    1. Terry Flynn

      From a Gen X UK gay man, THANK YOU. The “alphabet wars” leave me utterly mystified and worried that I’m screwed up. (Make that *more* screwed up than I already am!)

      I get questions about what I think about JK Rowling etc. My newly elected Labour MP in this (pretty socially conservative but economically left-wing) constituency is a fully paid-up gay+husband “rah-rah” supporter of the London Labour establishment. It is *rumoured* that the former Labour MP (who was defeated in Boris’s win) wanted to be the one to get the seat back. I wonder why that no-nonsense but “not ticking any box” guy was vetoed? Hmmm.

      I can’t speak for the “other” generations. But Gen X is, as usual, looking on and saying “WTAF?” FWIW there were the “usual” five parties standing in my constituency on 4th July: Conservative, Labour, Reform, Lib Dem & Green. I followed Jonathan Pie’s advice and drew a big spaffing cock across my ballot paper. I knew Labour would win it back from that terrible Tory so it didn’t matter what I did. The Greens had some MMT in their manifesto but a load of other contradictory nonsense. So, for the second time ever in a General Election, I spoiled my ballot. I am half Aussie and I firmly believe voting should be compulsory. With a “none of the above” option. Then we’d begin to see how bad things are.

      1. Lambert Strether Post author

        > The “alphabet wars” leave me utterly mystified and worried that I’m screwed up.

        I don’t think you’re screwed up. But reading Judith Butler is not high on my list of priorities.

        1. Terry Flynn

          Thanks. Just looked her (them? lol) up. Two sentences into the Wiki and I’m sighing.

          The funny thing is, back in the days when everyone used Facebook, 20ish of my 30 FB friends were feminist women from UK/USA/Canada/Aus. Back then TERF wars weren’t a thing. Partly thanks to NC I saw the issues with FB etc and I left. I ensured ALL my 30ish FB friends had my email so as to stay in touch. Few did.

          Morbid curiosity makes me wonder what kicked off among that group when the TERF wars started. Though it’s like wishing you could watch a car-crash on the interstate/motorway. THIS person is not only taking the backroads but is ditching the car entirely.

          1. Utah

            As a lesbian, I tend to think the TERF wars are about control of women. We don’t get to choose which gender(s) we want to date, we’re told that we must date women with male genitalia or we’re bad. Though I’ve never had a trans woman ask me on a date, so I don’t even know how common this phenomenon even is. But I see it in online spaces a lot.

            I’ve also noticed that there aren’t as many butch women now as there was 20 years ago, and an increase in trans men and non binary AFABs (assigned female at birth). It’s like some women think they aren’t allowed to be a woman if they present more masculine? I do think that society has a view of what feminine means and some lesbians internalize that a bit too much without investigating if they have to fit that agenda.

            And our pride festivals have been taken over by corporations. It’s all a mess.

            1. Ben Joseph

              Whatever happened to butch and femme? Got tossed in the blender and now they’re them.

            2. Stale Male

              As an old straight man, I often felt I had more in common with lesbians than straight women.
              The erasure of the lesbian community which was never very visible in the wake of the trans movement seems deeply saddening to me.
              Dave Chappelle’s likening of transwomen to blackface seems plausible although not being black or a woman, I am not in a position to really understand the feelings.

            3. Pat

              This non Lesbian female also believes much of what is going on is about control of women and destroying protected female spaces. It isn’t just opportunism that has led to so-called transgender athletes pushing into high school and college women’s sports.

              But as IM Doc makes clear the biggest victims are the young people being targeted for surgery and/or hormonal therapy. That this is happening and being encouraged is tragic and criminal.

              1. Yves Smith

                A friend who is straight is very vocal on this topic. She is a slight over 60 year old women who is hostile to the idea of people with male genetalia in women’s bathrooms. She points out that department stores in the late 1800s creating women-only bathrooms. was hugely liberating, it meant they could go out for an afternoon on their own.

            4. Yves Smith

              Perhaps you can correct me, but on IM Doc’s observation that gay men are way more upset with Team D than lesbians….my dim impression is that a lot lesbians WERE loud critics because they were pretty clear as adults that they were lesbian but could see that if they were growing up now, they would have been “tracked” into being trans and might even have started the transition before sorting themselves out. My further impression is what you call the TERF wars succeeded in shutting that down. Do I have that wrong?

    2. Carolinian

      Thank you as always. Perhaps the Dems go to these extremes on trans because they know it is something the Repubs will oppose and therefore be painted as bigots. In other words it’s all political/power strategy with little to do with the health, mental or otherwise, of children.

      Without a doubt the paternalistic male chauvinist culture that preceded this one was also toxic in many ways but that’s really no excuse for the off the wall crackpots of the child sex change movement. The latter is just another way of using sex to manipulate and, in the case of some physicians, to profit. As always in the USA follow the money.

      1. Terry Flynn

        Yep there was no money in following up the hilarious experience I had.

        Once upon a time it was a hilarious joke to embarrass right-wingers when it was found how many Grindr profiles were spotted at their conventions. The UK analogy was having a Tory MP found dead due to autoerotic asphyxiation when the serving Prime Minister had a “back to basics” campaign – which turned out to be a case of truth is stranger than fiction when the possibly most boring Prime Minister of the UK had an “obviously ludicrous” joke made by satirists speculating about an affair with a high profile female Tory which (by pure chance) turned out to be true.

        We are officially are in a world where truth beats satire. But, as I’ve said elsewhere, why would gay right-wingers stay below the radar on grindr? I’m sure there are rabid religious fundies who will kick up a stink. But they lap up Trump. So I repeat, why bother? I found someone influential on grindr at a conference in the USA 15+ years ago. Nothing happened: nobody (who matters) cares about that.

        I hope that IM Doc’s nuanced views might be a way forward.

      2. chris

        I’ve always thought Team Blue swung so hard for these issues because is it is so much easier, and cheaper, to pretend the non-binary, transgender, and homosexual people are magical unicorns with no material needs. The only other option is to do something to help this largely disenfranchised and disinherited class that provides actual goods and services. Like a federal job guarantee and single payer health care. It’s so much better to pay lip service to pronouns rather than help people, right? :(

      3. Henry Moon Pie

        From someone who worked at the Hyatt in Greenville 20+ years ago:

        When the Lutherans do their convention here, the bars are full until closing. When the Baptists are here, room service can’t keep up with the whisky orders.

        Similar dynamic.

      4. Big River Bandido

        When same-sex marriage was legalized, the Human Rights Campaign directors panicked at the imminent loss of their rice bowls.

        Economic issues are paramount for the overwhelming majority of queer people, just like everyone else. But for such a useless organization as the HRC, universal health care was out of the question. They needed another “equality” hobby horse to ride that didn’t require universal concrete material benefits, when trans wokeness galloped up.

    3. Big River Bandido

      I will note that the Grindr video scrolled through a few dozen profiles, none of which had pictures, most were not online, and all were between the ages of 18 and 31. A surprising number were 24 and 25. First off, just how many delegates to either corporate party’s convention are even under age 30? Damn few.

      Second, Grindr has become known among gay men as dominated by phony accounts and chat bots. A great many of these phony profiles supposedly are “trans”. I suppose bots can change gender at will and the app probably has created these fake accounts to gin up sympathy for trans people. No doubt the CEO of Grindr was simply putting that announcement out there to generate traffic but it wouldn’t take long for the average user to figure out that it’s just a scam to try and boost usage for an app that peaked and crapified itself a decade ago.

      I came of age, and came out, at a time when it was still risky to do so. I’m positive that I sustained professional losses, many that were unknown opportunities. Wokeness, particularly ginned-up, lobbyist-driven wokeness around non-binary and trans “identities” offends me for how it trivializes the struggles of earlier ages into a lifestyle branding exercise for people just trying to be cool in their 20s.

      As for Pride parades being corporatized, I have a vivid memory of the 1994 Boston Pride parade, seeing thousands of Bank of Boston (remember that one?) marching down the street wearing matching teal-and-pink t-shirts printed with the Bank of Boston logo. They looked like bots; it was the absolute antithesis of everything the gay and lesbian movement was about. I left the parade early and I’ve never been to another one since. I think the “movement” has been destroyed.

    4. Rick

      Wow – great to see this brought up. As a boomer gay, I have even less leeway to say anything about the issue or be attacked/dismissed. Especially the LGB thing. I never did understand how the T got tacked on, it’s orthogonal to orientation. The latest thing is the queer business where a straight person in a heterosexual relationship with a non-binary person is “queer”. I know a millennial guy who was quite surprised to find out that he is queer because his girlfriend identifies as non-binary.

      Yeah, hard to imagine how some of this came about, but then humans have come up with a lot of craziness.

    5. eg

      This sort of outcome is only possible in a society whose leadership has been cut adrift of the usual environmental pressures which shape human biology — but this situation is unsustainable.

    6. Hepativore

      HRT and SRS should be banned, based on the poor outcomes alone, aside from the fact that it is biologically impossible to change sex. If somebody really wants to cross-dress, fine, but they should still be referred to as their innate pronouns, and should not be allowed in areas strictly for the opposite sex.

      It does not help when you have an entire platoon on social media or elsewhere screaming that anybody who does not fall into a very narrow category of what being “masculine” or “feminine” must be “trans” and to go start your HRT and book your chop shop surgery appointments already.

      For true gender dysphoria, we should treat it like any other body image disorder…counseling and encouraging healthy outlooks and bodily acceptance. If we treated bulimia or apotemnophilia like we do “gender dysphoria” we would be handing emetics to the former and having surgeons hack off healthy limbs for the prescribed therapy for the latter.

      I honestly do not see why with all the risks and complications associated with SRS that it ever got approved as an acceptable medical practice in the first place. I mean yes, plastic surgeons strive to make people happy, but it is also the responsibility of a physician/surgeon to refuse to perform procedures on patients that are self-destructive or have no long-term benefit.

      1. Yves Smith

        I’m not sure you know any transgender people. I do, someone I met in Sydney in 2002 (as in aeons before trans was fashionable) and became friendly with. I asked an American who’d lived in Sydney for many years for a massage therapist, making clear I needed someone pretty skilled. I was referred to Lee, who operated out of Double Bay, also referred to as Double Pay and is Sydney’s analogue to Beverly Hills, and set up the appointment.

        I gave myself credit for not doing a double take when I met Lee, who was in the most awkward stage of male to female transition. I also took Lee’s success in having a practice in a tony area of town (and from the people encountered in the waiting room, perfectly ordinary Sydneysiders and not members of adventuresome sub-communities) as proof of how laid back Australians were about sexual identity issues (mind you, many are terrible racists, so it’s not as if that society is full spectrum tolerant).

        I sometimes had dinner with Lee (we’d order in at the very nice house she had bought and sometimes watched movies; Australians at least then prided themselves on their egalitarianism so there was nothing weird in their system of values with a client casually socializing with a service provider). Lee had recently had, as she put it, the chop, fairly recently (she had gone to Thailand which even then was the leader in sex reassignment surgery). I am not sure if she had gotten breast implants. She was taking estrogen and also working with a voice coach to adopt more female speech inflections.

        The point of this perhaps long-winded story is that Lee was 52. This was not a decision made by a teenager or young adult who might have been going through personal identity issues, including sexual identity issues. This was a mature and to me, pretty stable-seeming adult who thought hard before making the change (it was financially costly beyond all the transition expenses; she was divorced and I had a strong sense the sexual identity issues were a part, likely a big part, of the split).

        In other words, don’t make hasty generalizations.

        Having said that, I do agree with the premise that people we don’t deem old enough to vote or drink should also not be allowed to get HRT, which will render them infertile. IMHO too few can adequately judge what that will mean to their future selves, even before getting to the sort of bad health effects IM Doc has oft warned about. And I very much agree that too many young people with gender identity questions who might, with therapy, conclude they are gay or bisexual, are instead perversely being herded into thinking they are trans and worse taking irreversible or difficult to counter actions.

          1. Yves Smith

            Oh, IM Doc has written about this, and yes, it is being done, along with “puberty blockers”. See:

            We will rue the day that the FDA would be given this kind of power over off label drug usage. I could list off literally dozens of things that are used in this manner that are now considered standard of care. And this has so much potential to backfire. Once they are allowed to ban the use of ivermectin, I fully expect that next on the agenda will be all the drugs used to turn off puberty in the gender transition field. There is absolutely zero evidence of long term efficacy in the way these are being used. There is all kinds of evidence of great harm. The attorneys general in every red state and then some will see to banning these drugs too. These drugs, unlike ivermectin, are truly fraught with problems. Among them are drugs like Casodex which is an anti-testosterone agent. In my career, it is one of the top 5 drugs to be avoided – it causes massive problems in almost every patient. It is a drug approved ONLY for the treatment of prostate cancer. And yet, we are giving it off-label to throngs of younger than 18 boys.

            https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/02/one-texas-judge-will-decide-fate-of-abortion-pill-used-by-millions-of-american-women.html#comment-3854905

            And surgeries:

            A M2F post op transgender – will not have any kind of functional uterus, breasts, nipples, or ovaries. They have vaginal areas which are often constantly infected, painful and exuding pus and blood. I have had one patient who was in constant agony.

            A F2M post op transgender – will not have any kind of functional prostate, testicles, or semen. They may have a phallic structure, and it may have the urethra going through it – however, in my own patients’ experience, this structure is not useful for intercourse.

            A close look at any of these patients will instantly reveal that the above claim by ASPS is a total lie. They are neither passable by physical appearance (at least in the genital area) nor functional abilities. And they often have, like this patient Jazz, very very unfortunate side effects. I am really getting sick and tired of the lying being done by the medical people involved. It really is becoming an Emperor’s Clothes moments.

            I have very few who have transitioned. All of mine have been less than 21. I did all I could to make sure beforehand the consequences were known. The emotional agony that these patients are going through is very difficult to describe. They were promised that they would be a functional human in their desired gender. And they simply are not. None of them are. And they have made an irreversible decision and are trying to cope with the fact they may be alone the rest of their lives.

            The tragedies are enormous. I have little experience with this. But without exception, in every single patient I have that has gone through with this, regret, anger and even worse depression are overwhelming.

            https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/06/200pm-water-cooler-6-1-2023.html#comment-3892332

            And

      2. Walter

        I have a friend who transitioned in the 90s, or shortly before, as a young adult. It worked for her, or she made it work, with a long-term, stable relationship, an identity that is comprehensible, and stability socially and in employment . I didn’t know her as a he, and I don’t know when she decided or realized she was trans. I have to accept that, for some people, it is a good path.

        Among my daughters’ friends, there seem to be a huge number of transitioning people, some who are completing the change by age 19. If our civilization and science survive a decade or two, I think we may find out the cause[s], perhaps environmental chemical changes (pollution), or that we’ve all been trans forever and now it can be told, or a bullshit fad magically responding to the murderous attack on all of us by… (?) the modern world, the [neoliberal] powers that be, I don’t know. (I’ve read of the testosterone “flood” at a particular time in pregnancy that determines whether you’ll have a boy-brain or girl-brain or something like that, hmmmm).

        I feel that I’ve strongly received the message that the hormone therapy is proven safe, and you’re bones will grow once it’s over; it’s settled science, and you’d better not contradict me, you transphobe! I wish it was permitted to try to examine it objectively. I’ve certainly been “called out” by my younger daughter for just wondering what’s going on.

  5. antidlc

    Politico July 15:

    Pelosi “working the phones”:

    Former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, convinced Biden will lose, has been working the phones since June 27 in hopes of finding a way to ease him off the ticket.
    One of her colleagues was struck to see her chatting, furtively but openly, with Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries last week in a corner of the House Democratic cloakroom in plain sight of a dozen lawmakers.
    The extent of Pelosi’s behind-the-scenes role hasn’t been fully revealed and may never be if the former speaker has her way. But I’m told by people familiar with the exchanges that she’s stage-managed phone calls to Jeffries, plotted strategy with the biggest names in Democratic politics and told one former elected official bluntly that Biden’s legacy can’t be destroying their party.

    1. ChrisFromGA

      I picture her doing that with a phone in one hand and a gin-and-tonic in the other.

        1. ChrisFromGA

          Maybe combine the two? A brown cow?

          I think Pelosi is prone to liquid brunches like the one our dear Lambert referenced.

    2. Lambert Strether Post author

      > Pelosi “working the phones”:

      Above, I have a lot of wild stuff from July 16 and July 17… The initial test of strength is the virtual ballot, which has been put off ’til early August. At the same time, a letter demanding that the ballot not be staged immediately has also been withdrawn (a misnomer, really, since it’s only been leaked, not published).

      1. JTMcPhee

        And now Fragile Joe is enjoying his third bout with Covid. The few loyal palace guards reassure us he is fully vaccinated and therefore this dose is “mild.”

        Morbidity, mortality, and “Weekend at Bernie’s.” How many Americans will clap to keep Tinkerbiden alive?”

  6. lyman alpha blob

    RE: Trump shooter remains an elusive enigma

    I certainly don’t expect the spooks to truthfully release any info they find on the shooter. But this kid didn’t live in a cave – he had relatives, classmates, coworkers, etc. Surely some of them must have posted some info about Crooks during the last few days. So where is that?!!?

      1. Washington Woman

        The dark web has a plethora of social media sites. Just because he wasn’t on your social media does not mean he was not on social media.

    2. Useless Eater

      It is also curious that the picture of him being widely propagated was taken when he was a freshman in high school, 5 or 6 years ago. And the only more recent pic you see is the one of him dead. Which honestly could be someone else.

    3. Lambert Strether Post author

      > he had relatives, classmates, coworkers,

      And teachers. Crooks got, let us remember, a $500 STEM award on graduating high school. He also graduated from community college — two weeks ago (!). Both facts argue for some level of social functioning (he was not, IOW, like those creeps from Aurora). One would think that some reporter would have interviewed the teachers, not just the classmates.

      2. The Rev Kev

        “Reporters” can’t deep six Trump’s assassination attempt without also deep sixing his shooter as well. There are some that want that iconic image of Trump just after the shooting to just go away as well in that story in today’s Water Cooler. So like the full story about East Palestine, these reporters just don’t ask and don’t dig into the story too deep after a short period. That is why they are not getting real meaty articles by his friends, neighbours and teachers. You do that and it highlights Trump as well. Not to be confused with actual journalism.

  7. hk

    You know, Chris Armade has a physics PhD from Johns Hopkins and was also in high finance. So it’s not just lack of credentials that PMC respect that got Armade less attention.

    1. lyman alpha blob

      I haven’t read Vance’s or Arnade’s books, but I did read Joe Bageant’s Deer Hunting with Jesus many years ago (RIP Joe – we could use a journalist like you about now).

      He wasn’t a PhD or a VP, but a blue collar worker and later a writer, and he was and still is most definitely ignored by the mainstream. From his wikipedia page –

      “After Bageant’s death, his Australian publisher asked Bageant’s literary executor, Ken Smith, to select and edit about 80,000 words of his essays. The book was published in November 2011 as Waltzing at the Doomsday Ball: The Best of Joe Bageant. This posthumous collection was available only in Australia, New Zealand, and South Africa where, according to Smith, it sold reasonably well. According to Smith, “no American publisher is yet interested in a book by a redneck socialist—and that says a lot about American culture and the US book business.” ”

      Wondering if anyone in the commentariat has read both Bageant (who was legit as far as I could tell) and Vance (who I’m pretty skeptical of despite a few of his positons which I favor) and can offer a comparison?

      1. JBird4049

        I have been trying to buy a copy of Short-Timer by Gustav Hasford that hasn’t been abused into unreadable garbage and does not require a few hundred dollars. Considering that his book was the basis of the screenplay for the movie Full Metal Jacket this is very surprising to me.

        There are those French language editions that are reasonably priced.

        1. lyman alpha blob

          He was hilarious, and thank you for the first link – I don’t remember reading that essay before.

          This bit from it referencing WWII-

          “The postwar boom made quick work of hill-country living like this. New highways and subsidies gave large-scale producers an advantage over family farms. It took barely a generation for rural Americans to succumb, and soon they were ensnared by corporations; whether on assembly lines or by “driving truck,” they started working for the same people who had put them out of business.”

          – could have just as easily been taken from the new book I keep referencing, The Hamilton Scheme, because Hogeland makes the exact same point about the aftermath of the Revolutionary War. Hamilton’s economic policies deliberately targeted small landholders for the benefit of the large industries his policies created, and the rural citizens had to go to work for the people who put them out of business or starve. They didn’t like those options much, so started the Whiskey Rebellion, but as we know the little guys lost and here we are today with wealth inequality running rampant, just as Hamilton planned it out.

          As I’ve previously mentioned, my family’s small dairy farm was finally put out of business about a year and a half ago after a 100 year run, again largely due to economic policies passed by Congress.

          But I’m not bitter.

            1. lyman alpha blob

              Since you asked, I have to admit to not really following that story all that closely, sorry. I mostly just glance at the headlines. NC puts out so much good info every day it is difficult to keep up with everything.

      3. pjay

        Thank you for mentioning Joe Bageant. I’ve been thinking about him a lot these last few days because of the Vance selection. I strongly recommend his work. I think his books are all available online now.

        Bageant had a tremendous talent for expressing the authentic perspective, voice, and experience of the white working class from which he came, often with great humor. But he was also able to situate these voices in the larger context of social class reflecting his “redneck socialism.” He was an excellent compliment to the work of Thomas Frank in describing how the working class was abandoned by the Democrats and bamboozled by the Republicans. Frank provided the academic historical analysis from above; Bageant provided the experience from the inside through the words of friends, family, and acquaintances from his own life.

        When Vance’s book first came out there was an explosion of criticism by left academics accusing him of a “blaming the victim” type of “culture of poverty” depiction of the lower class which fed into his own individualist “bootstraps” story. Some of this criticism was valid, but it was also aggravating because it was usually done by privileged academics who completely discounted Vance’s own experience. I remember wishing that Joe Bageant was still alive to provide an authentic critique. I would *love* to have seen a debate between the two. If only Joe were still around today!

      4. KLG

        I have both Deer Hunting with Jesus and the collection of essays published in Australia! He is sorely missed. I really liked his posts from his last abode in Mexico. Somewhere on an old computer is a cache of his work. I need to look.

      5. Roland

        I’m also an admirer of Bageant’s work. Much of what he wrote about was applicable to my coworkers and neighbours in central British Columbia. Deer Hunting with Jesus helped me to understand, as a leftist, an important part of my own life.

        Bageant was a military historian, too. It’s a pity we can’t get his views on the latest batch of wars.

      6. eg

        I read them both, but it was a long time ago that I read Bageant (I continued to enjoy his online screeds until his demise). I feel like Vance portrays himself as having reached escape velocity from the Appalachian world while Bageant unapologetically remained loyal to it to the very end.

  8. MichaelHudson

    You must listen to this interview of McGovern by Nima on the assassination attempt and its parallels with the Hunter laptop coverup (orchestrated by Blinken), the “Russiagate” fraud by the CIA (McG says by Jake Sullivan)and what Trump told Judge Napolitano about JFK’s assassination by the CIA.
    This MUST be circulated.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cOyKXbhzU-8

    1. Martin Oline

      I heard this yesterday afternoon and the only question I had was about the end with the Truman opinion piece in the Washington Post. I knew the later editions dropped it and Dulles talking to Truman after. I had read about the memorandum but the slant I remember was Dulles memorialized Truman was getting senile or something, not that he had changed his mind. I was unaware Truman later confirmed his opinion the following spring putting the lie to Dulles’ file.
      The thing that bothers me slightly was that Dulles was ‘retired’ by Kennedy at least six months before the assassination so why is he putting memorandums into the files at Langley? Perhaps he still had the ability to provide input on certain intelligence things and he certainly had the connections to do so. His long tenure there and his position with the Warren Commission would also give him continued gravitas at the CIA. McGovern worked there so he should know much better than I.

    2. Samuel Conner

      Thank you; worth hearing, though the hearing is not a cheerful experience.

      It’s a shame that DJT did not make the JFK files public. If he gets another chance, I hope that he releases them. I think it should not be regarded to be tin-foily to reckon that the enduring refusal to make what is known public looks a great deal like a kind of “admission against interest.”

      I have never thought of DJT as a public-spirited person. Perhaps in the final chapters of his story, he will become one.

      1. Lambert Strether Post author

        > I have never thought of DJT as a public-spirited person. Perhaps in the final chapters of his story, he will become one.

        I am not the only one who can imagine that Trump could turn into a Face, from being a Heel! I don’t think the odds are high, at all, I should immediately say. Still, he’s the only one I can imagine doing such a thing.

  9. griffen

    80% of Americans were polled and in agreement…this s*it could get worse and spin out of control…small sample for what it’s worth. In a country of 300+ million, it’d be difficult to find agreement on much of anything else I presume. Yikes that’s a cynical thought (!)

    I’m trying to keep it clean, honest, for the kids ! To the bunkers and lairs, on Zuckerberg, on Gates, on Musk, and Bezos!

    1. chris

      I think the American people agree on a lot. From recent polls I’m familiar with, they want single payer health care, they think the cost of living is too high, they want their to be less school shootings, they want the US to be more capable of producing what we use and need, they don’t want our soldiers in wars, they want more good jobs, they want criminals to go to jail… I could go on. There’s a lot there for a candidate who is concerned about providing material benefits to voters.

      1. eg

        No doubt that the American people want these things, but does the American donor class? The question answers itself.

  10. steppenwolf fetchit

    Does Vance think Alex Jones was telling the truth about Sandy Hook? And has been unfairly persecuted with Lawfare for telling the truth?

      1. Carolinian

        Or a politician. Also people, particularly younger people, can change their minds. It’s a good thing. That quote was from 2021.

          1. MFB

            Ah, but he WOULD say that, wouldn’t he?

            Challenge Carolinian to eat a rat without unhinging his jaw . . .

        2. steppenwolf fetchit

          Its a good thing if its done for good reason or from good motive. If its done for cynical self-advancement by a purely careerist shape-shifting hustler, then its not a good thing or a real thing. Its a bad thing and a fake thing.

      2. griffen

        Lizards and Reptiles are United Against Politicians. We’re not the same… politicians are such vile creatures aren’t they? Please don’t ask the Coalition of Clowns to weigh into this matter! They resent the references.

        Gonna hit the sarcasm button quite a lot for the remainder of 2024. Sorry state of affairs.

    3. Lambert Strether Post author

      Dear Lord, I would never cite to Alex Jones for anything. But it’s a terrible sign that on the basic question of who’s running the world, Jones gets it far more right than Maddow. To that extent, I agree with Vance. On this point, of course, only.

        2. Steve H.

          Christakis, July 1:

          > antagonists of antagonists may, actually, be likely to become antagonists rather than friends

          A side note: on the same thread, Christakis posted a misleading version of the Emnity Paradox. Today, he posted this:

          > Did you know that, on average, your enemies have more enemies than you do?

          which is correct and not misleading. Though he did not remove the previous one, ala CDC.

          Christakis needs better friends.

        3. steppenwolf fetchit

          Is the enemy of my frenemy my fremenemy?

          Is it fremenemies all the way down?

      2. Mark Gisleson

        Just seconding what you said. When I finally dived into Jones to see what he was about, it was chastening to see that he gets more than a few things right. Not a fan but not an automatic critic.

        Thanks for saying what I was thinking.

    4. Philip Ebersole

      My understanding is that what Vance was trying to say was, not that Alex Jones’ worldview was the literal truth, but that it was less misleading than the worldview of Rachel Maddow and her ilk. Not that Jones’ conspiracy theory was right, but that the public is right to suspect conspiracies.

      1. steppenwolf fetchit

        Well . . . there is something to that. And there is a saying about conspiracy theories . . . its not a theory if it happened. Or is happening.

        On the other hand, while it is easy to don the tinfoil hat it may be harder to doff it. Sometimes it clings to the head like a limpet and won’t let go. One must sometimes ask oneself: ” Am I wearing the tinfoil? Or is the tinfoil wearing me?”

    1. Lambert Strether Post author

      > Lame article honestly

      I don’t think it’s that lame, besides being good news!

      Luck was a regular player in the X story. Having succumbed to LA’s siren call, Cervenka found work at venerated Venice Beach arts space Beyond Baroque where, at a poetry workshop, she sat beside fellow new arrival Doe, who’d decided this was where to find “kindred spirits”. Asked by the workshop-leader to name 10 poets they loved, Doe caught Cervenka cribbing from his list. “John had studied poetry,” she says. “I wasn’t educated. I wasn’t literate. I’d dropped out of school at 16. But in Florida, to entertain ourselves, my sister and I would buy old ledger books at the thrift-store and fill them with words and drawings. I loved to write.”

      1. Joe Renter

        I believe you quoted from his book. Saw X three times. Kind of my recently post glory days at the time.

    2. griffen

      In my mind I know its different, but I almost immediately think this band conversation is about the three man rock band from Houston, King’s X.

      Different music no doubt. I do appreciate learning about musical artists that were never a heavy feature on MTV in its 1980s hey day….playing videos.

  12. Tom Stone

    I suspect that the Biden Family will wait to see how the fundraising goes before deciding to stay in or drop out, Dr Jill would not enjoy being humiliated.
    If the $ isn’t there I’d expect a girl to girl talk between the eminent Dr Jill and cackling Kamala about Pardons for Jim and dear Hunter, and maybe a hint that an ambassadorship for Dr Jill would be appreciated.
    Joe? Promise to let him design the new summer uniforms for the Girl Scouts.

    2. chris

      I think Joe is the dog who caught the bus right now. I think he’s going to burn all the fundraising bridges he’s built regardless of how well he does in November.

  13. Lambert Strether Post author

    I added orts and scraps, with a long section that turned out to be the failed machinations of the Committee to Unelect Biden… Rarely have I encountered politics as overly dybamic as this weeks! Anyhow, an interesting exercise worth reading for the players, the detail, the logic, and the timing.

  14. Lambert Strether Post author

    Readers, I’m sick of the Mac Finder not allowing me to leave my (many) drives on the left. I used to be able just to drag drives and folders wherever I wanted them on the Desktop and there they would stay. That’s the behavior I want. How do I get the Mac to stop “helping” me and revert to the earlier behavior? Have the iOS programmers gotten in, and made the interface more stupid, again?

    I’m using Sonoma 14.5.

    2. Chris W

      Try this:
      Control+click on Desktop.
      From the pop up menu, select Use Stacks, which switches this feature on and off.
      (“On” aligns everything on the Desktop to columns on the right.)

      1. KLG

        Bless you! My desktop is a complete mess right now but one I can clean up! I had done the stacks thing by accident and did not know how to recover.

  16. Jason Boxman

    Around noon on July 10, huge parts of the nation’s fastest-growing large city were 120 degrees Fahrenheit, about 49 Celsius, or hotter to the touch. Had you been unlucky or unwise enough to actually touch it with bare skin, it could have caused injury within minutes.

    Phoenix.

    It was obvious to me twenty years ago to stay out of the southwest. We’re all seriously doomed. The first major power failure and people really will burn alive.

    You have to be really mind numbingly stupid to not understand the heat in the southwest at this late a date.

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/07/17/climate/heat-map-phoenix-sacramento-portland.html

    1. ambrit

      Given the state of play, he might not survive this round of infection by the evil pathogen.
      Does the White House reveal what variant of the Coronavirus-19 that he has?

    2. Jason Boxman

      For someone that has singlehandedly done more to erase public health than any president, or person, in modern history, I certainly wish Biden a speedy recovery! The mass disability era that he’s ushering in may actually foretell the greatest downfall of America as a nation, come to think of it, probably without parallel since the 1918 Pandemic. I suppose this could mean that, whatever protections that they might once have had in place for Biden, that’s out the window, now. So at least they’re practicing what they preach in regards to COVID being mild, and just a cold, and harmless. And over. Good luck with that, Joe!

    4. hamstak

      Couple this with a headline I read earlier (sorry, don’t recall where — probably my Yahoo! news feed) stating that Biden purportedly said he would step down if his doctors advised him to (or something to that effect), then I have to say yes, it very well could.

    5. IM Doc

      You all are looking at this all wrong.

      He is now quarantined for 7-10 days. No more visits from angry donors or Dem legislators.

      When Pelosi shows up , “Sorry Ma’am, you can’t go back there. He is still coughing.”

      Or

      “He is too sick to talk today, Schiff”

      What a convenient way to ride out the clock as lambert detailed above.

      You literally cannot make this stuff up.

      1. katiebird

        This is one of the most bizarre months of my politics-observing life! Possibly the Watergate hearings had more shocks-per-week. But that was a long time ago. My head reels. And you are totally correct.

      2. The Rev Kev

        I think that you have called it, IM Doc. He is doing the same thing that he did in 2019 – hiding – and intends to let the clock run down so that he stay as President no matter the damage to the party. I have the impression that everything is personal to him which is why the US does not really have a policy about Russia so much as his occasional rages against Putin.

        1. Jason Boxman

          Whether or not he tested positive ought to be a matter of public record, but by the time we can confirm or deny, Biden will have survived the attempt to displace him from the Democrat ticket.

          Well played, if true!

        2. steppenwolf fetchit

          If I confine my thoughts to issues of spite and vengeance, I would say that any and all damage to the party caused by Biden staying in as Prez and Candidate is deserved. It is payback to the party which conspired to engineer Biden into the 2020 candidacy to begin with. From a purely spite-based perspective, the Inner DemParty has filled its own toilet. Now let the Inner DemParty drink from it.

          Oh, if only the damage could extend to Obama himself, in the only way which is meaningful to Obama. And that would be in losing his ability to continue collecting big-money after-office rewards for his job well done as President, and becoming percieved as such a total f*ckup-design-engineer that no one but no one ever invites him to anything ever again. Or takes his calls either.

      3. Verifyfirst

        CDC changed its quarantine guidance on March1:

        People who test positive for Covid no longer need to isolate for five days, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Friday.

        The CDC’s new guidance now matches public health advice for flu and other respiratory illnesses: Stay home when you’re sick, but return to school or work once you’re feeling better and you’ve been without a fever for 24 hours.

        https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/covid-isolation-guidelines-cdc-positive-cases-updated-rcna141317

        But I guess they can say Joe IS having symptoms (i.e., “sick”), though that might make it sound like Covid can make you actually sick…..

    1. Raonaid

      Hmm… wasn’t it he during the debate who claimed to be the one who ended the Covid pandemic?

      2. griffen

        The Pandemic is Over. One in another of many statements of finality that did not age well, or outcomes that somehow ended quite different than expected.

        Mission Accomplished.
        The subprime crisis is contained.
        We can’t know the unknowns.
        We will be greeted as liberators, they will hand us roses. ( I fail to recall if that in Bush 43 but I believe it to be comparable; as in, the Iraqi people will thank us ! )
        And for football mavens… Falcons 28 Patriots 3…

      3. steppenwolf fetchit

        Well, WHO and CDC both agree that the pandemic is “ended”. One supposes that intrepid young journalists could ask WHO and CDC gets credit for “ending” it within the US.

        Actually, I believe I remember WHO ( Gebreyesus specifically) talking about how the stage after pandemic ends is a quiet settling down into “endemic” status. And it was WHO’s goal to deliberately on purpose turn covid into an “endemic” disease for a long undramatic and “plausibly” deniable slow-rolling cull of world populations.

    2. ambrit

      Biden will run for office from his basement again. This is the opening salvo. That way his ‘handlers’ can restrict access to him, access by anyone not “with the program.”

    3. IM Doc

      I have been sharing pretty much everything here since the beginning – so I will now share yet again.

      I have not seen a truly unvaccinated COVID patient in any way shape or form since around Valentine’s Day of this year. And even before that for literally months – it was very very sporadic and unusual to see anyone with COVID who was unvaccinated. But we were not really seeing much of anything for quite a while in the first place. The EMR however is reporting on average that 30% or so of the patients are unvaccinated – and despite multiple attempts to correct this – it is just not correctable. So I have completely given up on this avenue. I do not even think anyone is really looking at this metric, vaccinated or unvaccinated, anymore anyway. Maybe they should be.

      So the unvaccinated have either given up on the health care system with regard to COVID, they are not getting sick enough to seek care, or they are not getting infected or having no symptoms if they do. Those are the options. This is my experience – and I am hearing very similar rundowns from all over.

      For weeks now, we have been having an occasional admission that seemed to present more like asthma – all in younger more healthy highly boosted people. But something has changed in the past week or two. Large numbers of community based infection. And again – all are vaccinated and mostly highly boosted. And a significant increase in the number of admissions – this time much older patients and co-morbid patients. I have admitted this week alone – 3 patients. Mind you, they are not nearly as ill as previous surges – but ill enough to need to be monitored. All have been doing well after a day or two in the hospital. Last week I admitted 2. The vaxx status on these 5 people are 4,3,8,3,6.

      I suspect that President Biden is one of these elderly patients – and I hope he does not get too ill. I am not certain – but I am fairly sure he has been vaccinated and boosted at least twice.

      I am weary. And it is obvious to me and many others that we need to have a complete up and down re-evaluation of what we are doing – and pronto.

        1. steppenwolf fetchit

          We need a new word for an endemic disease of worldwide reach and coverage. Something like maybe ” panendemic”.

          I got vaxed twice with Moderna, and then boostered once with Pfizer. No more boostering after that.

          Several months ago I got mildly sick very fast. The self-test revealed the slightest trace of covid maybe. So my work sent me home for 5 days. I percieve myself to have come out of it unaffected, but if I were to get covidunning-krugeritis, how would I even know?

      2. Eudora Welty

        I work at a Level 1 trauma center. Right now, one ward has a majority of its patients being Covid+. I don’t want to identify the ward, but it is a specialty ward where everyone has the same problem, so it is unlikely that the hospital is re-arranging and clustering the covid patients.

    4. Lou Anton

      So debate night wasn’t just “one of those coughs you just can’t shake”?

      And it’s amusing to me how the default line is “He is vaccinated and boosted and he is experiencing mild symptoms” (press sec. quote). They think “good thing I’m vaxxed and boosted, will probably maybe stay out of the hospital.” What I think the normies think: “Vaccines and boosters don’t do a damn thing.”

    5. Random BSN Student

      Isn’t this Biden’s 3rd documented infection? It’s a bit fascinating if you consider the extensive precautions the White House apparently takes to prevent Biden from getting infected. On the other hand, the WSJ video showed Biden sitting in a diner surrounded by members of the public with nobody masked. It’s hard to imagine his campaign had the foresight to ensure everybody present was boosted and tested.

      Meanwhile, I just finished my clinical hours at the hospital for the summer. This week I wasn’t assigned any Covid patients. The elderly husband of a suspected Covid case appeared in the hallway to argue with a nurse. He wasn’t happy the staff who entered the room were being asked to wear a mask. I happened to be present in my N95 and lowly student badge, and as the elderly man talked about the “lack of evidence” that masks work his gaze flickered in my direction a few times. His nurse agreed there was “mixed evidence” and nobody said anything to me. At times I feel invisible in my N95. Almost nobody ever mentions it.

      When I compare the continuing toll of Covid (48k deaths for the first 9 months of 2023 alongside a dramatic fall in reporting) to other societal scourges like gun violence (43k dead in 2023) or consumer recalls of defective baby strollers (12 deaths in a year), I wonder what’s the next shoe that will drop? What’s the next massive step backward in public health we’re going to witness in the coming presidential administration? Will the Supreme Court make it illegal to mandate vaccines for schoolkids? How about seatbelts in cars (41k deaths from car accidents in 2023)? Compared to letting Covid rampage through the population, a lot of other public health menaces feel tame. Why do they even bother with the pantomime of caring?

      1. steppenwolf fetchit

        Because they want to make the rising deathtoll from diseases , accidents, etc. look like fate or bad luck. They don’t want masses of people suddenly thinking that this is evidence of a strong elite desire to get rid of the “surplus population”. That’s why they bother with the pantomime of caring.

  19. Henry Moon Pie

    Situationists–

    Interesting piece that I enjoyed but parts were above my head because of little to no background in Marx. This set off some alarm bells though:

    Automation would be dedicated to fulfilling human need first, freeing citizens to dedicate their time to play and creation.

    There we go with human comfort and convenience, the blind “what’s good for us is good for the Earth,” etc. Billet fails completely to note how all this cybernetics and AI contributes mightily and increasingly to packing even more energy into an already over-energized atmosphere.

    Also, Billet writes:

    In the same way that the assembly line robs its workers of control over how and what they produce, the extension of commodity into every aspect of life robs them of what little power they have outside of work.

    Not an assignment, but maybe someone can explain to me how this theft is not partly if not mostly due to technology and culture rather than class structure.

    1. Screwball

      In the same way that the assembly line robs its workers of control over how and what they produce, the extension of commodity into every aspect of life robs them of what little power they have outside of work.

      I really like that quote.

      I spent 40 years in engineering/manufacturing helping us have all the nice things we do. Hundred dollar microwaves, 20 dollar coffee grinders – ain’t it great?

      People don’t realize how our large manufacturing companies process map how to build the product in the most efficient and profitable way possible – the bottom line don’t ya know.

      The assembly line workday consists of doing something every 13 seconds (the last one I was a part of – dishwashers), 8 hours a day, 7 days a week. They are only there because they haven’t replaced them with robots – yet – but now I’m getting into Luddite territory. :-)

      A very talented artist/glass cutter told me a few years ago just before he died; people don’t make things with their hands anymore. I agree, we have machines for that now.

      It will only get worse.

  21. Steve H.

    Yaneer:

    > COVID impacts continue to accumulate in the summer outbreak

    > Feigl-Ding:

    >> BREAKING—Joe Biden has #COVID. #COVIDisNotOver

  22. 4paul

    Vocal Coach reactions is a rabbit hole i jumped in a while ago; at this point i shouldn’t be surprised at the micro sub-genres on the internet, this is a sub-genre of Song Reactions, instead of rando people saying I Like It (young black kids reacting to old white people music) this is I’m a Professional.

    from my bunnyhole:
    mouth position, alto range https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F27FN_L4uyM
    phrasing[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7R8gAtbLDnM

    i went with good instead of bad reactions, i went down the hole after reading
    Q: how does it feel to be the greatest drummer in the world?
    Neil Peart: I don’t know, ask Karen Carpenter

    [1] “Phrasing!” has been ruined for me by the Archer tv show….

  23. KFritz

    I write 2 checks per month–apartment rent and storage unit rent. At the grocery store, checks are the slowest transactions, even in a somewhat out of the way location with slow data lines. Most of the check writers are people with gray hair. Trying to think like a retailer, I’d be inclined to find a way to turn down any check not written by a senior citizen.

    1. steppenwolf fetchit

      Maybe non-senior people who want their checks taken should die their hair gray or white and get some convincing lines drawn onto their face and neck.

  24. Ben Joseph

    Saw X at great american music hall during the first reunion tour. Absolutely smashing live act. The hungry wolf was a standout.

  25. Carolinian

    Much as I kvetch the Times can have good detail in their stories. This one adds the wrinkle that the shooter had done searches for both Biden and Trump on his phone. The rally was only announced on July 3 and was relatively close to his house.

    And it says that in his van were two toolbox sized oil and fertilizer bombs with remote control fireworks igniters. When the shooter’s body was searched they found the remote for these.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/17/us/politics/secret-service-trump-shooting.html

    Walter Kirn is going oh he’s just like Oswald including the three barrelled name. But it’s hardly a stretch to believe that an apparently somewhat smart science kid could make such a plot and even a possible way of escaping. Whether others were hoping for some negligent homicide is another question.

    1. Ben Panga

      I’m leaning more and more to “nobody who wanted to be somebody” but there remains a lack of curious lack of detail, and a curious lack of curiosity.

      I’m reduced to scouring the Daily Mail

      “DailyMail.com confirmed U.S. Senators were told the 20-year-old gunman posted on Steam: ‘July 13 will be my premiere, watch as it unfolds.'”

      “But, they did reveal that Crooks operated several accounts on encrypted platforms that they are still working to gain access to, the source said. ”

      My backup theory is a gaudy tale of Thiel linked wet-work as a warning or demonstration

    2. steppenwolf fetchit

      Fifth Column Beau did a video about this, but now that you have referrenced the Times piece, there is no need to link to it here. Beau did mention further that the phone seemed to indicate either that the young man was diagnosed with major depressive disorder or was searching internet for information about major depressive disorder. And Beau finished up by saying, if this is taken by some to mean there was no need for all that talk about cooling out, slowing down, and de-harshing the rhetoric; it is always a good time to talk about cooling out, slowing down and de-harshing the rhetoric.

      As I was listening to the Beau talk, I began thinking that this young shooter begins to seem more and more like an Arthur Bremer figure ( for those old enough to remember who Arthur Bremer was).

  27. britzklieg

    I watched Vance so you didn’t have to…

    One need not agree with much he said, and aside from the nice sounding “pro working man” rhetoric (which can not be trusted) the only thing I could be enthused about is his opposition to money and bombs to Ukraine. Still, it’s clear to me that he wipes the floor with Harris and makes the GOP more palatable to those not inflicted with cult partisanship disease. The elephantine old guard has been vanquished and he’s gonna be around for a very long time.

    It’s over. Trump wins.

  28. willow

    Biden staying in the race is going to hand Republicans both House & Senate. Partly due to association/perception and partly due to donors drying up. Which means Republicans maintain or possibly increase control over the Supreme Court.

  29. britzklieg

    Let’s try this again, apologies if it shows up twice…

    I watched Vance so you didn’t have to.

    I don’t agree with much of what he said, especially the faith-based/patriotic hokum, and aside from the nice-sounding rhetoric about the working class (which probably can not be trusted regardless how resonant the message) the only thing I can be enthused about is his isolationist/libertarian opposition to money and bombs for Ukraine (for which I can be decidedly enthused). Still, he wipes the floor with Harris or whoever else on the Dem side who might oppose him. He makes the GOP more palatable to those not afflicted with partisan cult disease and appears to vanquish the old guard with youth and at least a few heterodox ideas. He’s going to be around for a very long time. A smart pick by the Donald, I think.

    …and so, it’s over. Trump wins.

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