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2:00PM Water Cooler 7/18/2024

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By Lambert Strether of Corrente

Patient readers, I had to do something first, so I did the Republican National Convention. The Democrats and their Biden problem will come shortly. Please stay tuned. –lambert

Bird Song of the Day

Common Nightingale, Бишкек — Жаштар паркы/Ганди паркы [Bishkek — Youth Park/Gandhi Park]. Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. With a rooster!

* * *

In Case You Might Miss…

(1) A former Navy SEAL takes a view on Trump’s assempted assassination

(2) The Republican National Convention and J.D. Vance

(3) Unelecting Biden: irresistible (albeit private) force, immovable (albeit ill) object.

(4) Marimekko patterns online.

* * *

Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

* * *

Trump Assassination Attempt

Interesting perspective, worth listening to in its entirety:

As far as “sacking” cities, states, the country: At least for the last, you’d need “a mass-based party of committed nationalist militants.” That would be unfortunate.

2024

Less than four months to go!

Friday’s RCP Poll Averages: CTUTP

Second post-debate polling: No massive swing to Trump that I can see. It would be hilarious if the Biden Debate debacle had exactly the same effect as Trump’s 34 bazillion felony convictions, i.e., none, both parties are so dug in. Of course, the Biden “buzz” (yesterday) is bad, and may yet have an effect. And who, may I ask, is making the buzz? Swing States (more here) still Brownian-motioning around. Of course, it goes without saying that these are all state polls, therefore bad, and most of the results are within the margin of error.

* * *

Unelecting Biden:

“The walls close in around Biden” [Politico]. • Because I am not a trusting soul, when I see a headline like this, I’m reminded of many, many other times when “the walls” were “closing in,” and then they didn’t. Just a reminder–

“America is About to Go Through Some Things” [Rachel Bitecofer, The Cycle]. “As a person who built their reputation on predicting the political future I hope you can appreciate the importance of my next statement: I have no idea what in the hell is about to happen!!! I can see the next 4 months with stark clarity. Like the elections preceding it, 2024 will come down to about 100,000 votes in 6 or 7 swing states. Though horserace coverage will continue to breathlessly obsess over every new poll, quality or not, the truth is this race was a toss up 4 months ago, it’s a toss up now, and it’ll be a toss up in November.” • Yep.

Electeds

“Pelosi told Biden: You’re dragging down Democrats” [Politico]. But in terms of action: “The speaker does not want to call on him to resign, but she will do everything in her power to make sure it happens,’ this person said, referring to Biden quitting the race.” • Not even Pelosi being quoted directly. And “Everything in her power” is “A great empire will be destroyed“-level.

Lambert here: Maybe all that laborious timeline work I did yesterday has some value after all. If I have the sequences of events right, here, Jeffries talked (privately) to Biden on Thursday of last week. Schumer talked to Biden (privately) on Saturday. Pelosi’s all over the map about when she talked to Biden, but her boy Schiff came out against Biden Wednesday. However, the letter demanding that the DNC postpone the virtual ballot until August, never actually published, was also “scrapped” on Wednesday; the story is that the DNC caved, but the real issue is that the letter only got 40 signatories (that is, 40/111 = 36% of the caucus*). So my question is: With the leadership — Schumer, Pelosi, Schiff and (one presumes) Jeffries — all pushing, and for weeks, plural, albeit privately — not to mention the press baying for blood, and squillionaires bellowing — why is the the caucus not already entirely behind them? In a party notorious for authoritarian followership — and a class notorious for schooling behavior — what’s the hold-up? If Biden is going to be defenestrated over the weekend, who’s going to drag him to the window and heave him out? OK, Pelosi’s said to be strategic genius. I guess we’ll see! NOTE * With more signatories, the demand could have been strengthened.

CBC, Black Women

“Schumer had a ‘blunt’ private conversation with Biden about the state of the 2024 race” [NBC]. But further down in the story: “Former Rep. Cedric Richmond, a former White House official and co-chair of Biden’s 2020 campaign, spent time with Biden on Tuesday and said: ‘He looks good. He sounds good. He’s out there sparring.’ Richmond said that Rep. Jim Clyburn, D-S.C., another key Biden ally who was with them on Tuesday, is fully on board with the president’s re-election effort. ‘Clyburn’s where I am,’ Richmond said. ‘We’re rolling with him until the wheels fall off. Full disclosure: I think we’re going to win.'” • We have yet to hear from Clyburn on Biden’s case of Covid, of course. Nevertheless, as with so many others in this odd story, presumably Clyburn has a price. So why hasn’t it already been paid?

Party Loyalists

It’s possible we’re in “the dogs won’t eat the dog food” mode, here. Of course, this is an anecdote:

Donors

Hilarity ensues at nearly identical headlines:

“Megadonors Are Plotting to Change Biden’s Mind With Money. Will It Work?” [New York Times]. I ran this yesterday, but for obvious reasons I must run it again, with a different quote: “These are chaotic times. So many ideas are bouncing around the donor class that some card-carrying members say privately that they are having trouble keeping track of all the plots. Some of the wealthiest people in the world have been locked in a perpetual, almost academic examination of how much leverage they truly have to change Mr. Biden’s mind.” • Where were these brain geniuses when Biden had to be led off the stage at George Clooney’s fundraiser, like a month before the debate debacle? More time for them to figure out what leverage they really have would certainly have been helpful….

“Megadonors Are Plotting How Best to Change Biden’s Mind” [The New Republic]. Starting with the Times link above, we get this: “According to the Times, many of these donors, while committed to replacing Biden, aren’t sure about the best way to do so. While Strickler is holding back on donations, others are leery about bringing on a backlash against wealthy elites. They also aren’t sure who to reach out to in Biden’s inner circle [nota bene], and whether money is even the best means of persuasion. ‘I can’t figure out who—if anyone—has influence over this, but donors certainly don’t, regardless of what we do,’ said Ravitch. ‘And to speak out publicly against the president only helps undermine him. It’s a catch-22.'”

“Donors’ cash is drying up, Katzenberg warns Biden in private meeting” [Semafor]. “Joe Biden met privately in Las Vegas Wednesday with Jeffrey Katzenberg, the film producer and a top campaign adviser, who conveyed a warning: The president’s donors’ patience is wearing thin, and their cash soon will, too. Katzenberg, one of Biden’s closest counselors and a conduit to moneyed circles in media and finance, told the president that major donors, doubtful of his ability to win in November, have all but stopped writing the kind of big checks that sustain campaigns in the home stretch, people familiar with the meeting said. One of the people said the donor warning came in a broader discussion of other campaign topics.” • “Is drying” as opposed to “has dried,” along with all the other qualifications. Naturally Katzenburg denies everything, like they all do. After this story was published, Katzenberg said in a statement that it was a ‘misread of a private meeting” and that he and Biden ‘talked about everything from the convention to new ads. And by the way, we will raise the money we need to run a winning campaign.'” • Presumably with a winning candidate. Which Biden believes himself to be.

Harris

“79 percent of Democrats approve of Harris replacing Biden if he steps aside: Poll” [The Hill]. “The Economist/YouGov survey found 79 percent of Democrats would support Harris at the party’s nominee in November if Biden chose to withdraw from the race…. Roughly 28 percent of Democrats said Harris was more likely than Biden to win against Trump. About 32 percent said the vice president was just as likely and 24 percent said she was less likely to defeat the former president in the fall.” • Revised headline: “56 percent of Democrats believe replacing Biden with Harris would make their odds of beating Trump the same or worse.”

“The VP is clearly the stronger candidate” [Matt Yglesias, Slow Boring]. “The real issue (which is reflected in the job approval numbers) is that Biden’s campaign is almost monolithically focused on shoring up his core support, which is bleeding away due to his limited capabilities. He’s doing interviews that are at best unimpressive, on average defensive and peevish, and at worst highlight his diminished verbal dexterity. More to the point, his team — which continues to be a sharp group of people — is focused on base-consolidating policy rollouts rather than addressing swing voters’ concerns. What Harris can do is take more people for granted (her better net favorable ratings) and run a proper campaign. Of course she might fail — but she might not!” • I see the point on swing voters but (a) 110 days is a long time in politics, and (b) the Biden campaign doesn’t need to focus on generic “swing voters.” Rather, it needs to focus, with laser-like precision, on a few hundred thousand voters in a few swing counties in a few swing states. Maybe Kamala makes that easier. Maybe she doesn’t. But to make the argument he’s making, that’s what Yglesias really needs to show. (Of course, I’m assuming away a massive Trump landslide, but there are no signs of that yet, and in that case, the Democrats should simply throw caution to the wind and throw some rookies out there for garbage time. Or, alternatively, they could deal with the Kamala problem by throwing her to the wolves….)

And of course people are already gaming out Kamala’s VP:

Shapiro is perfect!

Yes, Shapiro is Governor of PA, and therefore some Democrats might hope to strengthen their chances by running him, but I am dubious he can outweigh an extremely fired-up Republican electorate in central PA.

Republican National Convention:

Vance: Stoller live-blogged his speech:

Vance:

* * *

“Editorial: A Teamsters pitch at the Republican National Convention suggests big trouble for Democrats” [Chicago Tribune]. “‘The biggest recipients of welfare in this country are corporations,’ said Sean O’Brien on Monday night. ‘And this is real corruption.’ You’d expect the president of the Teamsters, one of America’s most powerful labor unions, to hold such a view. But that he delivered that comment as a fiery prime-time speaker on the opening night of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee was remarkable, to say the least. Especially since he was there at the invitation of the Republican nominee for president of the United States and this marked the first time in history that a Teamsters leader spoke at the GOP convention. And that hardly was the only moment when it seemed like O’Brien’s head-turning lines on Monday night in Milwaukee would have been a much better fit for the Democratic National Convention in Chicago. To wit: ‘Americans vote for a union but can’t get a union contract.’ ‘Companies fire workers who try to join unions and hide behind toothless laws that are meant to protect working people but are manipulated to benefit corporations. This is economic terrorism at its best; an individual cannot withstand such an assault.'”

“A Grand Old Party for Workers?” [The American Prospect]. “As they assemble in Milwaukee, are the MAGA Republicans taking seriously their newly minted pro-worker rhetoric? The GOP platform announces itself with an almost Rooseveltian flourish, dedicating the party ‘To the Forgotten Men and Women of America.’ That’s a nice touch, but when it comes to actual worker welfare issues, the new GOP platform emphasizes, overwhelmingly, immigration restriction, often in the most racist fashion, as well as raising obstacles to trade with China. There is very little else that bears directly on worker status. The platform does call for ‘merit-based immigration’ in contrast to what the GOP labels ‘chain migration,’ allowing spouses or children of those new workers into the country. That probably opens the door to the kind of temporary employees demanded by both Silicon Valley and American agribusiness, but, please, no family members! The platform favors ending the transition to electric vehicles, an industrial policy championed by both President Biden and a newly powerful UAW, whose 2023 strike ensured that higher wages and union jobs would spread to many new battery plants and EV factories. Trump and the GOP are wagering that EVs will still fail, and in their place their platform offers a bet on crypto and artificial intelligence. One of the very few places where the platform-writers put forward a specific work-related proposal comes with a call to eliminate the tax on the tips that restaurant and hospitality workers earn, a substitute perhaps for raising the minimum wage, otherwise unmentioned in the 2024 GOP platform.” • So is Vance a… beard?

“Rappers, strippers and a felon: Is this Donald Trump’s new Republican Party?” [USA Today]. “The GOP seems to be morphing before our eyes because of a combination of events, including President Joe Biden’s incompetence, Trump’s influence on the party and the failed assassination attempt. The convention has been a cacophony of professionals, misfits and patriots − not unlike the GOP itself. We’ve heard from established leaders such as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who’s also a former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations…. But the real eye-catchers causing a stir are the ‘outsiders.’ People who either used to be Democrats or who embrace a message the GOP wants to send…. On Monday, rapper Amber Rose spoke to delegates inside the convention hall in Milwaukee. Her presence stirred controversy. She’s neither a politician nor a lifelong Republican. She’s a 40-year-old former model and stripper who dated Kanye West before she married and divorced rapper Wiz Khalifa. In her convention speech, Rose said she had an ‘aha’ moment when it came to racial issues and Trump. ‘Donald Trump and his supporters don’t care if you’re Black, white, gay or straight, it’s all love,’ she said. And that’s when it hit me. These are my people; this is where I belong…. I don’t see Rose’s appearance as a beacon of hope or as an object of derision. She’s clearly not a politician or thought leader, but her presence does signal something noteworthy: Trump is hoping to attract atypical voters to the Republican Party.”

“WWE legend Hulk Hogan to speak at RNC before Trump accepts GOP nomination” [New York Post]. “It was not immediately clear what Hogan would be speaking about. Hogan, 70, told ‘Fox & Friends’ last month he would consider entering politics now that he has retired from wrestling. ‘We need somebody in there that’s got some common sense,’ Hogan said. ‘So, if you need a president or vice president, I’ll volunteer and take this country over, and I’ll rule with an iron fist, a flat tax – nothing but common sense. I know right from wrong, brother,’ he added.” • There’s a history here:

* * *

“Tucker Carlson seems to be having the time of his life at the RNC” [WaPo]. “Carlson is having a moment at the RNC. He’s being followed by a documentary crew. He’s expected to give a prime time speech before the festivities come to an end on Thursday. And to top that off, he gets to celebrate the fact that his friend and fellow nationalistic conservative, Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio), got the nod to be Trump’s running mate — an outcome Carlson had been lobbying for privately. (According to a report from the New York Times, Carlson had warned Trump that if a “neocon” — a Republican with an interventionist foreign policy — were vice president, deep state forces would be more likely to try to assassinate Trump.)”

“Inside the Strange New World of Tucker Carlson” [Wall Street Journal]. “Carlson’s new show made its debut on Twitter (before its rebranding as X) in early June 2023, and that December he launched TCN, which became profitable, he says, within weeks. Most of its revenue comes from over 200,000 paid subscribers, according to CFO Faizaan Baig. Carlson’s Putin episode last February gained 200 million impressions on X and 20 million views on YouTube. His podcast has had over 26 million downloads since its December launch and is currently no. 1 on Spotify’s news podcast chart.” And: “Carlson is trying to expand his reach outside the U.S. He says he’s negotiating an interview with Xi Jinping of China and will soon visit Mohammed bin Salman, the crown prince and de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia. He has repeatedly requested an interview with Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine but wants to conduct it in a third country because he believes (without offering any evidence) that Ukrainian intelligence is trying to kill him. The president of El Salvador, Nayib Bukele, hugely popular at home for eradicating rampant gang crime but widely criticized for alleged human-rights abuses, visited Carlson in Maine for bird hunting in November 2022.”

The Campaign Trail:

Trump (R) (Smith/Cannon): “Special counsel Jack Smith appeals dismissal of Trump classified documents case” [CNBC]. “Special counsel Jack Smith filed a notice appealing the decision earlier this week by Florida federal Judge Aileen Cannon that dismissed the criminal classified documents case against former President Donald Trump. Smith’s appeal, which was expected, will be heard in the 11th Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals in Atlanta, which reviews cases arising from Florida federal courts…. The appeal is likely to end up at the U.S. Supreme Court, regardless of how the 11th Circuit appeals court rules.”

Trump (R): Something to look forward to:

* * *

Biden (D): “Biden’s Covid diagnosis comes at the worst possible time for his campaign” [Politico]. “President Joe Biden’s Covid diagnosis on Wednesday afternoon could hardly have come at a more devastating time. Not only did it cut short a two-day campaign swing in Nevada, but it threatens to deepen Democratic anxieties over — and resistance to — his reelection campaign, which has been teetering for nearly three weeks since his abysmal performance in his first debate with former President Donald Trump. The news — first announced to a crowd of Hispanic activists awaiting his speech in Las Vegas and shortly thereafter confirmed by the White House — will surely deepen concerns about Biden’s age, health and stamina that have many Democrats calling for him to step aside as the party’s presidential nominee. Perhaps even more importantly, it could create a vacuum that privately skeptical Democrats, now feeling a heightened sense of urgency, may feel inclined to fill by amping up their pressure campaign.” • Well, I’m glad that “privately skeptical” Dems may feel “heightened sense of urgency” with democracy on the ballot etc. etc. Commentary:

And:

Biden’s spread plenty of contagion already, so why stop now?

Our Famously Free Press

August 5, 2024:

On the photo at left, see (again) here.

“Steve Bannon filmed Jeffrey Epstein for 15 hours. His ‘documentary’ has never surfaced.” [Business Insider]. “Before his 2019 death in jail, Jeffrey Epstein spent hours being interviewed on camera by Steve Bannon. A clip published by the New York Post in 2021 shows Bannon verbally sparring with Epstein… The clip supposedly promoted a documentary, “The Monsters: Epstein’s Life Among the Global Elite,” from Bannon’s production company Victory Films. Before Epstein went to jail on sex-trafficking charges in July 2019, Bannon spent months in the financier’s homes in Manhattan and Paris. He boasted that he shot 15 hours’ worth of video. Three years later, no documentary has been released. And Bannon’s close relationship with Epstein has been curiously memory-holed.” • Or not curiously. Anyhow, Bannon’s in jail, so why worry?

2016 Post Mortem

“JD Vance & Thomas Frank discuss the 2016 Presidential Race with Smerconish on CNN” [Michael Smerconish, YouTube]. • Vance and Frank on the same screen?!

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

* * *

Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

* * *

Look for the Helpers

Going into a moms’ Facebook group takes a lot of courage (complete thread):

It’s almost as if the real problem is wage labor, isn’t it? (Also, we should not forget that taking care of children is a moral commitment.)

Testing and Tracking: Wastewater

“Jointly estimating epidemiological dynamics of Covid-19 from case and wastewater data in Aotearoa New Zealand” [Nature]. “To make informed public health decisions about infectious diseases, it is important to understand the number of infections in the community. Reported cases, however, underestimate the number of infections and the degree of underestimation likely changes with time. Wastewater data provides an alternative data source that does not depend on testing practices. Here, we combined wastewater observations of SARS-CoV-2 with reported cases to estimate the reproduction number (how quickly infections are increasing or decreasing) and the case ascertainment rate (the fraction of infections reported as cases). We apply the model to Aotearoa New Zealand and demonstrate that the second wave of infections in July 2022 had approximately the same number of infections as the first wave in March 2022 despite reported cases being 50% lower.” •

Personal RIsk Assessment

The “boiling water” stage:

Social Norming

“Data, signs, symbols” [Closed Form]. “In thinking so much about the social construction (production) of data, I have been trying to link the social processes of data construction with the various functions that data perform out in the world, but sort of missing the bridge to be able to do it. Is it because statistics is eugenicist? Not exactly. Is it because of “methodological individualism?” Also not exactly. All to say, in thinking so much about the production of data, I have neglected to think about its consumption…. The symbolic economy and social logic of consumption (which Baudrillard develops extensively, and which I will not recapitulate here) is not some kind of epiphenomenon of the productive economy; rather, production/consumption are two chambers of the same heart, two aspects of an organic whole. To borrow from Ursula Le Guin, consumption is the “left hand” of production. Here, social and psychic logic operate according to the code of signs. (In semiotics language, the sign is the atomic unit of meaning composed of signified – a thing itself – and the signifier – the concept referring to the thing.) The meaning or value of signs depend on their relationships to other signs. Signs perform particular “signifying” functions within the symbolic and psychic logic of consumption – this is one of Baudrillard’s major (early) hypotheses. We tend to think the important thing about data is the content. But data, inference from data, and the whole mode of statistical reasoning as form are powerful communication media themselves.” • Welll… Perhaps we have a Baudrillard maven in the readership who can comment on/untangle this.

* * *

TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

Wastewater
This week[1] CDC July 8: Last Week[2] CDC June 24 (until next week):

Variants [3] CDC July 6 Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC July 8

Hospitalization
★ New York[5] New York State, data July 17: National [6] CDC June 22:

Positivity
National[7] Walgreens July 15: ★ Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic July 13:
Travelers Data
Positivity[9] CDC June 24: Variants[10] CDC June 24:

Deaths
Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11]CDC July 6: Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12]CDC July 6:

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, with hot spots annotated. Worse than two weeks ago.

[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) LB.1 coming up on the outside.

[4] (ER) This is the best I can do for now. At least data for the entire pandemic is presented.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Now acceleration, which is compatible with a wastewater decrease, but still not a good feeling .(The New York city area has form; in 2020, as the home of two international airports (JFK and EWR) it was an important entry point for the virus into the country (and from thence up the Hudson River valley, as the rich sought to escape, and then around the country through air travel.)

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). This is the best I can do for now. Note the assumption that Covid is seasonal is built into the presentation, which in fact shows that Covid is not seasonal. At least data for the entire pandemic is presented.

[7] (Walgreens) Still going up! (Because there is data in “current view” tab, I think white states here have experienced “no change,” as opposed to have no data.)

[8] (Cleveland) Still going up!

[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Up. Those sh*theads at CDC have changed the chart so that it doesn’t even run back to 1/21/23, as it used to, but now starts 1/1/24. There’s also no way to adjust the time rasnge. CDC really doesn’t want you to be able to take a historical view of the pandemic, or compare one surge to another. In an any case, that’s why the shape of the curve has changed.

[10] (Travelers: Variants) Same deal. Those sh*theads.

[11] Deaths low, but positivity up.

[12] Deaths low, ED up.

Stats Watch

Employment Situation: “United States Initial Jobless Claims” [Trading Economics]. “The number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the US rose by 10,000 to 243,000 on the period ending July 13th, reaching a new weekly high, surpassing market expectations of 230,000. This increase, along with other key indicators, suggests that the US labor market continued to soften during this period, bolstering expectations that the Federal Reserve may lower benchmark borrowing costs by September.”

Manufacturing: “United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index” [Trading Economics]. “The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in the US soared to 13.9 in July 2024, the highest level in three months, compared to 1.3 in June and way better than forecasts of 2.9. The reading showed manufacturing activity in Philadelphia expanded overall, as general activity rose….”

* * *

Tech: AI as oracle:

* * *

Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 51 Neutral (previous close: 53 Neutral) [CNN]. One week ago: 54 (Neutral). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Jul 18 at 12:49:10 PM ET.

Photo Book

“Meet Vivian Maier, the Reclusive Nanny Who Secretly Became One of the Best Street Photographers of the 20th Century” [Smithsonian]. A second link to Maier because she’s so great. “Maier’s photos provide audiences with a tantalizing peek behind the curtain into a remarkable mind. But she never intended to have an audience. A nanny by trade, she rarely showed anyone her prints. In her final years, she stashed five decades of work in storage lockers, which she eventually stopped paying for. Their contents went to auction in 2007. Many of Maier’s photos ended up with amateur historian John Maloof, who purchased 30,000 negatives for about $400. In the years that followed, he sought out other collectors who had purchased boxes from the same lockers. He didn’t learn the photographer’s identity until 2009, when he found her name scrawled on an envelope among the negatives. A quick Google search revealed that Maier had died just a few days earlier. Uncertain of how to proceed, Maloof started posting her images online.” And: “‘I once saw her taking a picture inside a refuse can,’ talk show host Phil Donahue, who employed Maier as a nanny for less than a year, told Chicago magazine. ‘I never remotely thought that what she was doing would have some special artistic value.”” • Another image:

Class Warfare

“The peak shipping season is getting underway with another threat of labor disruption at American ports” [Paul Page, Wall Street Journal]. “The union representing about 45,000 workers at ports from Maine to Texas and the seaport employers are in a standoff with no negotiations on the calendar and the current longshore contract due to expire in a little over two months. The WSJ Logistics Report’s Paul Berger writes that Harold Daggett, head of the International Longshoremen’s Association, is stepping up his rhetoric, warning that a strike “is becoming more likely.” Daggett says the union won’t extend the current labor agreement when it expires this fall and that dockworkers won’t work without a contract. Automation is at the heart of the current impasse. But the union is also looking for a hefty wage increase, one that would exceed the 32% raise over six years won by West Coast dockworkers last year.

Zeitgeist Watch

“I Gave Myself a Month to Make One New Friend. How Hard Could That Be?” [Esquire]. ” Americans have become terrible at making and keeping friends. Here’s an incomplete list of phenomena that experts in the subject have blamed for this: apartments without dining rooms, Covid-19, “technology,” babies, not enough hiking. Whatever the cause, we’re a nation afflicted. This is particularly true for men. (If you cannot name even a single close friend, you’re not the only one: 20 percent of single men are stuck in the same position, trapped in what is being dubbed a “friendship recession.”) In 2023, a surgeon general’s advisory declared loneliness and isolation an “epidemic,” and I was showing worrying symptoms. I had a spouse, a child, a dog, a career—and almost nobody else to hang out with.” • Very long but not uninteresting….

News of the Wired

“A brief interview with AWK creator Dr. Brian Kernighan” [PLDB]. “What would be your advice to young people today who want to get into the field of designing programming languages? Dr. Kernighan: Try designing and implementing small and special purpose languages. They are lots of fun, often very useful, and a great deal easier than trying to create a replacement for Rust or C++. Look for things that could be automated if you had the right kind of language to spell out the steps, then create a simple compiler and runtime. Jon Bentley wrote a couple of articles on this long ago that are still relevant.” • If you’re still reading, Bentley is terrific; search on Programming Pearls. He writes with beautiful clarity, as did so many of his generation of proigrammers, but I remember the “bumper sticker computer science” the best: “When in doubt, use brute force” is perhaps my favorite, but “Testing can show the presence of bugs, but not their

absence” is good too.

“An Online Database of Marimekko Patterns” [Kotte.org]. “Maripedia is an online database of hundreds of print patterns that Marimekko has used in their products since the 1940s. You can browse by decade, designer, or style…or you can search by image. That’s right, just upload an image of the pattern on your pillowcase or dress and it’ll tell you who designed it and when.’ • Pretty neat! Her’es a Morris Louis:

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Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From Into_The_Abyss:

Into_The_Abyss writes: “I believe this is a night-blooming cereus, at the Selby Gardens, Sarasota, FL. Most I’ve seen bloom at one time!”

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Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not covered by the annual NC fundraiser. So if you see a link you especially like, or an item you wouldn’t see anywhere else, please do not hesitate to express your appreciation in tangible form. Remember, a tip jar is for tipping! Regular positive feedback both makes me feel good and lets me know I’m on the right track with coverage. When I get no donations for three or four days I get worried. More tangibly, a constant trickle of donations helps me with expenses, and I factor in that trickle when setting fundraising goals:

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About Lambert Strether

Readers, I have had a correspondent characterize my views as realistic cynical. Let me briefly explain them. I believe in universal programs that provide concrete material benefits, especially to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime example, but tuition-free college and a Post Office Bank also fall under this heading. So do a Jobs Guarantee and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can deliver on such programs, because the two are different flavors of neoliberalism (“Because markets”). I don’t much care about the “ism” that delivers the benefits, although whichever one does have to put common humanity first, as opposed to markets. Could be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don’t much care, as long as the benefits are delivered. To me, the key issue — and this is why Medicare for All is always first with me — is the tens of thousands of excess “deaths from despair,” as described by the Case-Deaton study, and other recent studies. That enormous body count makes Medicare for All, at the very least, a moral and strategic imperative. And that level of suffering and organic damage makes the concerns of identity politics — even the worthy fight to help the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton’s wars created — bright shiny objects by comparison. Hence my frustration with the news flow — currently in my view the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the other by out-of-power liberals and their allies in the State and in the press — a news flow that constantly forces me to focus on matters that I regard as of secondary importance to the excess deaths. What kind of political economy is it that halts or even reverses the increases in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I am also very hopeful that the continuing destruction of both party establishments will open the space for voices supporting programs similar to those I have listed; let’s call such voices “the left.” Volatility creates opportunity, especially if the Democrat establishment, which puts markets first and opposes all such programs, isn’t allowed to get back into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I love the tactical level, and secretly love even the horse race, since I’ve been blogging about it daily for fourteen years, but everything I write has this perspective at the back of it.

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31 comments

  2. Mikel

    This is probably the first Republican vice presidential speech in decades that didn’t talk about cutting taxes, lowering spending, or reducing the size of government.

    — Zaid Jilani (@ZaidJilani) July 18, 2024

    I’ll admit that is a shocker.
    Probably temporary, but still a shocker.

    Reply ↓
    1. Samuel Conner

      Perhaps to advocate further tax and spending cuts could be interpreted to be a subtle criticism of DJT for failure to reduce/cut them as much as he ought to have done during his first term.

      The man has, I think, in past been quite sensitive to implied slights.

      Reply ↓
      1. Henry Moon Pie

        Maybe he’s realized he wasn’t President that first term. Ryan and McConnell treated it like a cat’s away situation and pushed through what their owners wanted. The situation was even worse in foreign policy.

        Reply ↓
  3. ChrisFromGA

    As we wait to see what size of cement shoes Joe is being fitted for, has anyone else noticed that Antony “Fraud in the Factum” Blinken has been awfully quiet, lately?

    No press releases condemning the Putler, no vicious lies about Gaza ceasefire deals being imminent meant to act as cover for yet another round of senseless slaughter.

    Or maybe I missed something …

    Reply ↓
  4. none

    Tech: AI as oracle

    Yay! That’s an image snippet from Ted Nelson’s wonderful old book Computer Lib / Dream Machines . Very hard to find these days. Brings back the feels.

    Reply ↓
  6. Carolinian

    More Taibbi/Kirn no paywall. Have to say I’m a lot less fascinated by the assassination story than they are. Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U38iwvu9smE

    Even the Trump the hero angle is overplayed. He was always likely to win and perhaps win big. This election is all about Biden no matter how hard they try to change the subject. The real surprise would be for a president with 38 percent approval getting re-elected.

    Reply ↓
    1. pjay

      “This election is all about Biden…”

      It certainly is now, and I find that hilariously ironic. The Democrats and their well-placed supporters have tried to make it all about Trump for the last 8 years. Now all Trump has to do is keep his mouth shut and be nice for a few more months and he’s home free. I do think the “hero angle” will be a factor in the strength of Trump’s victory, depending on how disciplined he can be. But both parties have reaped what they have sown.

      Reply ↓
  7. lyman alpha blob

    RE: Chad Wright tweet

    OK, maybe. Yes, people make mistakes and nothing is as “wired tight” as an organization’s PR department would have outsiders believe. There is always lots of muddling through. And I have had occasion in recent years to see the Secret Service on the job, and they are not vigilantly securing the perimeter at all times, especially when they are on guard for private activities as opposed to public functions. Sometimes they stop to have a snack with their charges and engage in chit chat with those they aren’t actively guarding and have been checked out already. No security expert by any means, but I really didn’t think they were shirking their duties at all, and had things as under control as could be expected.

    But in this case, I disagree that Crooks was able to get shots off just because he tried. Maybe that lack of roof coverage was just a colossal screw up. But as myself and others have noted, the SS has snipers on roofs on a regular basis. Was it just this one time for Trump that they missed it? If so, it would be a rather astounding coincidence that a shooter just happened to show up when security was accidentally lax. I’d really like to know how tight security has been at other recent events for the Donald. There must be pictures somewhere with everybody having a phone recording these days – maybe there were lapses there too and luckily nobody showed up with an AR the other times.

    But even if you grant that lack of roof coverage was a mistake, it wasn’t just this one time, and it was just dumb luck that a shooter happened by in PA, the fact remains that Crooks was identified as a suspicious person well ahead of taking any shots. I believe there was a link here showing the SS themselves had spotted him over a half hour before he started shooting. Another said the SS sniper had Crooks in his sights before he starting firing at Trump. The first spotting should have made it clear Crooks was not law enforcement, so wouldn’t the sniper with him in their sights a half hour later have known he was a hostile? There were also bystanders pointing at the shooter and yelling. The amount of disorganization that would have to take place for Crooks not to have been at least stopped and questioned by some law enforcement is truly astounding and hard to chalk up to coincidence.

    The excuses and refusal to do the honorable thing and resign by the head of the SS aren’t helping quell any “theories” either.

    Reply ↓
    1. jsn

      I haven’t been saving links on this, unfortunately, but Larry Johnson has a good interview up with a retired sniper who points out the following: when SS is short staffed they share responsibilities with local law enforcement. This guy believed the first still of the SS snipers he saw, from just before the event when they’re both looking at the shooter in their binoculars, they are probably asking command is that guy on the roof local law enforcement or a risk, they wouldn’t want to shoot local law enforcement.

      There were reports yesterday that local law enforcement was supposed to have snipers on the roof the shooter fired from, but went inside because it was too hot. Today local law enforcement is saying they were ordered to not be on the roof and they saw and acted on the shooter being there.

      Separately, today, local law enforcement claims they were on the cross agency secure broadcast reporting the shooter when the assassination attempt happened.

      We’re still in “fog of war” mode here.

      Reply ↓
      1. hk

        Fog of war coupled with CYA. The retired FBI sniper seems to me has gotten everything exactly right–I’d been in miscommunication situations like that often enough, except they didn’t involve shooting people (I imagine we all have) that it sounds plausible and people with guns have even more reason to be cautious.

        Reply ↓
  8. Mikel

    “America is About to Go Through Some Things” [Rachel Bitecofer, The Cycle]. “As a person who built their reputation on predicting the political future I hope you can appreciate the importance of my next statement: I have no idea what in the hell is about to happen!!! I can see the next 4 months with stark clarity….

    ???

    Reply ↓
  9. lyman alpha blob

    RE: Why did Time change the cover?

    An August 5th cover?!?!? I very rarely read Time since it seems massively dumbed down and written for ten year olds, but last I checked it was a weekly publication. Are they monthly now, or do they postdate issues by a couple weeks when they come out? Otherwise, either of those pics makes them look a little late to the picnic.

    Reply ↓
      1. Wukchumni

        Huxley was granted the anonymity of passing away when attention was placed elsewhere on November 22, 1963.

        Reply ↓
  11. Jeremy Grimm

    After listening to several songs of the the Common Nightingale I wonder why that bird has such a reputation as a song bird. I prefer the song variety and invention of the Common Mocking bird and some of the other unknown song birds that I have listened to many Summer evenings in Upstate.

    Reply ↓
  12. Laughingsong

    “To the Forgotten Men and Women of America.’”

    Wowsers, a pretty shameless reference to the Depression…from the movie “Gold Diggers of 1933”:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5MGYz3vRdzA

    “So is Vance a… beard?”

    By this, I assume you mean “a beard” in the George Carlin way? “The word ‘beard’ shook a lot of people up… “BEARD! LENIN had a BEARD! Gabbie Hayes had whiskers….Monty Wooley had whiskers…”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ny44N69y9ac

    Reply ↓
    1. t

      My Man Godfrey is one of Trump’s favorite movies. In this case, I think that ‘s the reference except they changed it to forgotten man and forgotten woman.

      With all the online and columnists’ hunger for diagnosis, I haven’t seen any Tweet threads or think-pieces about Trump and Godfrey and Norma Desmond. (The “late great Hannibal Lecter” doesn’t really fit with those two but I also have varied taste in movies.)

      Reply ↓
  13. Jeremy Grimm

    I enjoyed reading the brief interview with Dr. Kernighan. The new computer languages after ‘C’ never held much beauty for me, although I strongly agree with Kernighan’s assessment of associative arrays. They simplify and speed building simple but often fairly large databases and enable rapid searches using all the features of the language that contains the associative array construct. I was able to construct searches using Perl dictionaries and the Perl grab bag language that I was unable to implement using the SQL available back in the day — and probably the SQL available today.

    Reply ↓
  16. britzklieg

    Stoller has, once again, demonstrated his need to play both sides and end up with neither. Vance’s speech may not be “poetic” (never mind that poetry mostly plays well to the PMC elites, a voting bloc he is not trying to persuade) but his strong pro-working class rhetoric and opposition to the Ukraine grift, never before heard from the GOP and designed to attract precisely the bloc he hopes to persuade, is more than interesting. It might even be called transformational given the push back he is recieving from the hawkish GOP old guard, who clearly do not like the pick.

    It occurs to me that Vance has ripped a page from the Democrat playbook of “promising left, delivering right” (if one assumes said populism will never materialize once elected). At least Biden admitted that “nothing much” would “change.” He got that right.

    Reply ↓

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