2:00PM Water Cooler 7/19/2024

By Lambert Strether of Corrente

Bird Song of the Day

Common Nightingale, Punta Camorro, Cádiz, Andalucía, Spain.

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In Case You Might Miss…

(1) Democrat Inner Party considered as a wretched hive of scum and villainy.

(2) New RCP polling averages.

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Look for the Helpers

“Book Review: Dream! Hack! Build! – Unleash Citizen-Driven Innovation with the Power of Hackathons” [Dotneteers]. “‘Dream! Hack! Build!‘ by Ann Molin, Love Dager, Mustafa Sherif, Carolina Emanuelson, and Dr. Kristofer Vernmark is an inspiring and practical guide to leveraging hackathons for fostering innovation and addressing societal challenges. This book is a must-read for anyone interested in driving impactful change through collaborative efforts…. The book emphasizes the importance of engaging citizens in the innovation process. It provides practical examples, such as the Dream for Sweden campaign, which invited citizens to share their dreams and ideas for a better future. This approach ensures that the solutions developed are more inclusive and aligned with the needs of the community.”

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My email address is down by the plant; please send examples of there (“Helpers” in the subject line). In our increasingly desperate and fragile neoliberal society, everyday normal incidents and stories of “the communism of everyday life” are what I am looking for (and not, say, the Red Cross in Hawaii, or even the UNWRA in Gaza).

Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

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2024

Less than four months to go!

Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:

Virginia and North Carolina added to the list. NC was never going for Biden, but Virginia? Yikes!

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Unelecting Biden:

“Some way he make himself all soft like a blob of jelly and surround me so nasty. Then he gets wet all over like with green slime. So I guess he come to some kinda awful climax.” –William Burroughs, Naked Lunch

Lambert here: I don’t have a dog in this fight, as I’ve said. After all, Biden, on my Covid beat, slaughtered hundreds of thousands of people with his policy of mass infection without mitigation. And that’s before we get to brinkmanship with nuclear powers (but yes, Lina Khan). On the other hand, the Democrats seeking to defenestrate Biden — and who, three years ago, in one of life’s little ironies, installed him, optimized the primary to nominate him, and who, until a few days ago, serviced and defended him — are absolutely a wretched hive of scum and villainy, and the Democrat Party would be far better off if a cleansing fire from Heaven burnt away these Flexians — podcasters, pundits, strategists, intelligence assets — along with donors, ice cream connoisseurs, and the Wizard of Kalorama™ with his entourage. Perhaps — to shift metaphors — if these barnacles and parasites were scraped off the hull, the good ship Democrat could make some headway. Indeed, the Wretched Hive has form:

Lambert still here: Yesterday, I questioned Pelosi’s strategic genius, based on questions of the calendar. However, “The purpose of a system is what it does,” says Stafford Beer, designer of the Cybersim system for Allende (“There is ‘no point in claiming that the purpose of a system is to do what it constantly fails to do'”). If the outcome of the past few week’s machinations is Kamala coronated, and not elected, then that was the system’s purpose and Pelosi’s intent (as well as Obama’s), and probably has been a long time (note that pushing the calendar to the breaking point optimizes for a coronation, because there’s no time to put together an open convention).

Lambert here, ordering up strong drink: For a long time, I’ve examined the structure of the Democrat Party (without coming to a definitive conclusion, along with the many political scientists over the years who have also not come to a conclusion). However, one constant slogan/maxim/nugget of wisdom is that “the Party decides” (and not, say, the donors). Should the “Wretched Hive” (see above) succeed in defenestrating Biden, we might revise that slogan to read “The inner Party decides”; it is not at all clear to me that the ground troops — the precinct captains, the election officers, the organizers, the door-knockers, volunteers and loyalists generally — want to replace Biden. The anecdotes I have seen argue the reverse, as does the fact that only 36% of House electeds were willing to sign on to the letter that Wretched Hive was privately circulating. So we would have a wonderfully clarifying operational defintion of “our democracy.”

Lambert, pounding one back: If I were Biden, I’d be in Gotterdämmerung mode, and if I wanted to cut a deal with these backstabbing weasels, this would be it: The convention will nominate me (“I have done the state some service, and they know ‘t”), at which point I will graciously refuse the nomination, opening the convention to nominations from the floor. Presumably the Wretched Hive will have wired everything up by that point, so the convention won’t be open at all, and so be it.

Lambert, slamming the glass down: After Biden’s debate debacle, I introduced the framing that it was “time to take the car keys away.” This was valid (a) in that it removed all the medical jargon and online diagnosis from the discourse, and (b) reframed the discourse in terms that many, many families could understand. What I did not consider was the larger context: The car keys still have to be given to somebody, but who? The airheaded daughter among whose skills are not numbered actually driving? Any one of the sludge-brained sons who consistently drive 45 mph in the left lane? Some High schooler with a junior decoder ring and a learner’s permit? Who, exactly? Let’s remember that this is the stupidest timeline, and that it’s always possible to make things worse….

The DNC

“Democrats in Turmoil as Party Leaders Call for Biden To Step Aside” [Democrats in Turmoil as Party Leaders Call for Biden To Step Aside” [RealClearPolitics]. “In a letter to ‘Fellow Democrats,’ Biden cited many reasons for remaining in the race, placing particular emphasis on the argument that he was the choice of Democratic primary voters, and that it would be wrong to disregard their voice. ‘The voters of the Democratic Party have voted. They have chosen me to be the nominee of the party. Do we now just say this process didn’t matter?’ … the Democratic National Committee has taken unprecedented measures to guarantee a Biden-Harris ticket comes to fruition. There was the reorganization of the primary calendar, a historic change that slated Biden-friendly South Carolina as the first Democratic primary of the year…. There were no primary debates this year, either.” • And every single member of the Wretched Hive supported the DNC’s actions, vociferously,

“Dems stand down on DNC complaints after aggressive pressure campaign” [Politico]. • Nice spin. The bottom line is that the Wretched Hive could only get 36% of elected House members to sign onto their precious letter, and so of course it was never actually made public. Instead, the leaks were cranked up.

Electeds

“Biden is isolated at home as Obama, Pelosi and other Democrats push for him to reconsider 2024 race” [Associated Press]. • First time I’ve seen the Wizard of Kalorama™ in a headline, so I’m guessing that after Pelosi made the running, Obama decided he wouldn’t come out of this thing looking dirty, and so he threw the man he put in office — to be fair, it was important to Democrats to destroy Sanders and his nascent movement — under the bus. “The reporting in this story is based in part on information from almost a dozen people who insisted on anonymity to discuss sensitive private deliberations. The Washington Post first reported on Obama’s involvement.” • Of course they’re anonymous. They always are. It’s like dealing with spooks.

CBC, Black Women

“How Black Women Feel About Biden, Kamala Harris, and 2024 A Cut survey shows a warning sign for Democrats ahead of Election Day” [New York Magazine]. “The Cut asked 1,200 Black women how they feel about the candidates and which issues are most important to them. More than half said they plan to vote for Biden, foreshadowing a weaker level of support than the 95 percent who pulled the lever for him and Kamala Harris four years ago. The findings also contained a timely warning sign: If positive perceptions of Biden, Harris, or the Democratic Party decline before Election Day, Black women may be less inclined to go to the polls. The survey is the first of four the Cut is running between now and November. It polled Black women ages 18 to 55 between June 3 and June 14 — notably, before the president’s disastrous debate performance sparked calls for him to exit the race, a gunman made an attempt on former president Donald Trump’s life, and Trump announced J.D. Vance as his running mate.” But: “[T]he survey found that more Black women approved of Harris’s job performance than Biden’s. Sixty-eight percent approved of how the vice-president is handling her role, compared to 63 percent in Biden’s case. Black women ages 18 to 34 were more likely to say they feel moderate or strong pressure to support Harris.” • The constituency that gave us Obama, nobbled Sanders in favor of Clinton, then nobbled Sanders in favor of Biden prepares itself to once again play a decisive role…. Oh, and I forgot to say: Notable for his lack of leakage is James Clyburn. Can nobody meet his price?

Donors

“Democratic donors begin mobilizing to raise money for Harris if she’s the nominee” [Politico]. “Allies of Vice President Kamala Harris have begun courting Democratic donors to provide financial support for her if President Joe Biden drops out of the 2024 race. One Democratic donor adviser has begun collecting pledges from female Democratic donors to support Harris, while a women’s political organization has begun speaking to its donor base in an effort to ensure an initial wave of contributions to a potential Harris campaign, according to people familiar with the efforts. These people shared information about the financial maneuverings under strict conditions of anonymity, because of Harris’ extraordinarily delicate political position as Biden’s running mate and the tensions within the Democratic Party about Biden’s future.” • More anonymous sources. Remember how the Trump campaign insisted that nobody talk to the press? Wise move. (Incidentally, in the highly unlikely event that Kamala’s campaign goes pear-shaped, “these people” will be the first to leak to the press that the debacle was all her fault…).

The Spooks

Lambert here: The spooks are silent. Kamala was on the Senate Intelligence Committee. What does that tell you?

The Press

Young Ezra, either totally wired or entirely performative:

Pollsters

“If Biden Stays: A Glimpse into a Grim Electoral Future for Democrats” [Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball]. Sabato has a power base of his own at UVa, and he’s been around for years, so: “While public polling has not necessarily shifted dramatically in the three weeks since the first debate, the numbers have generally gotten worse for President Biden, and Democrats are obviously concerned about their own bleak internal numbers, many of which have been surfacing publicly.” Assuming that you bvelieve their “internal” (i.e., private) numbers. More: “One cannot just automatically assume a replacement candidate, most likely Vice President Kamala Harris, would do better than Biden. But Democrats may be quickly reaching the point where a roll of the dice is advisable.” • “Advisable” is doing a lot of work there. “Advisable” because doing what the Wretched Hive wants is the only way to stop the leaks? That said: “We don’t know exactly what Democrats who want Joe Biden to exit the race are visualizing the Electoral College map to be right now. But our best guess is that it probably looks something like this:”

Smebody needs to explain why Kamala would win WI, MI, and PA, because I don’t think she does, especially not PA). Sabato does caution: “[T]he fact that we’re having a serious conversation about whether he could lose Virginia is telling. Aside from Virginia, other stronger Biden 2020 states, such as Oregon, Colorado, and New Mexico are within single digits.” • None of which means that any other candidate would be better (which Sabato does not discuss). Sabato’s official (non-“hypothetical”) map:

Same question. What’s the theory of the case here? The Democrats have spent the last few years creating an electorate that would crawl over ground glass to beat Trump no matter who is at the head of the ticket. How does swapping out Biden and swapping in, say, Kamala shift the few hundred thousand votes in a few swing counties in a few swing states? Why is there no punditry on this? No internal polling? No leaks? It’s almost as if the object of the exercise weren’t actually winning the election…

Biden Circle

“Biden’s family starts discussing his possible exit plan from the 2024 race” [NBC]. “Members of President Joe Biden’s family have discussed what an exit from his campaign might look like, according to two people familiar with the discussions. The overall tone of the conversations has been that any exit plan — should Biden decide to take that step, as some of his closest allies increasingly believe he will — should put the party in the best position to beat former President Donald Trump while also being worthy of the more than five decades he has served the country in elected office, these people said. Biden’s family members have specifically discussed how he would want to end his re-election bid on his own timing and with a carefully calculated plan in place. Considerations about the impact of the campaign on his health, his family and the stability of the country are among those at the forefront of the discussions, the people familiar with those discussions said. The prospect of Biden’s considering stepping aside, much less that his family is gaming out a possible exit plan, is an extraordinary development that comes after he has repeatedly said he would not relinquish his position as the presumptive nominee of the party.” • Who are the “two people familiar”? Jill? Hunter? Unlikely.

“Biden campaign, White House deny report Biden discussing with family exit plan from 2024 race” [Just the News]. “Thee White House and the Biden campaign on Friday denied a news report that President Biden is having discussions with family members about a possible exit plan from the 2024 presidential race against GOP nominee Donald Trump. ‘That is not happening, period,’ said White House spokesperson Andrew Bates. “The individuals making those claims are not speaking for his family or his team – and they will be proven wrong. Keep the faith.”… Jen O’Malley Dillon, Biden’s re-election campaign chair, said on Friday that Biden isn’t leaving the race and he has “multiple pathways to victory” in November.

“Biden left feeling angry and betrayed by top Democratic leaders wavering on his campaign” [NBC News]. I can’t think why. “President Joe Biden feels personally hurt and betrayed by the way so many Democrats, including some of the party’s top leaders, have left him hung out to dry as he faces the biggest crisis of his political career, according to two sources familiar with his thinking. And privately, many of those leaders have expressed doubts about his path forward. Former President Barack Obama’s only public comment came the day after Biden’s disastrous debate last month, when he tweeted “Bad debate nights happen” and talked about his former vice president’s virtues. Privately, however, Obama has concerns. Bill and Hillary Clinton have done nothing publicly other than each putting out a tweet shortly after the June 27 debate. House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, both of New York, as well as Rep. Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., the former House speaker, have spent weeks listening to their members’ concerns and relaying them to Biden and his campaign. Publicly, all three have said they support whatever decision Biden makes, but even behind closed doors, they haven’t told congressional Democrats to get behind Biden or given them any guidance about what they should do.” • Even if you’re a big dog, nobody cares how loudly you bark from your kennel….

The Campaign Trail:

Trump (R): Trump really is not dumb, insane, a moron, etc.:

Trump (R): “J.D. Vance Left His Venmo Public. Here’s What It Shows” [Wired]. “US senator J.D. Vance, an Ohio Republican and former US president Donald Trump’s pick for vice president, has a public Venmo account that gives an unfiltered glimpse into his extensive network of connections with establishment GOP heavyweights, wealthy financiers, technology executives, the prestige press, and fellow graduates of Yale Law School—precisely the elites he rails against.” More: “Despite his anti-elite stance, Vance’s connections reveal a more complex relationship with establishment figures. At the same time, as the former president distances himself from Project 2025—a right-wing policy roadmap aiming to purge the federal government and reshape the executive branch and turn the US into what critics characterize as a Christian nationalist autocratic state—Vance’s Venmo network reveals his ties not just to [Amalia Halikias, government relations director at the Heritage Foundation] but to others associated with a maximalist interpretation of MAGA. Gladden Pappin, for instance—president of the Hungarian Institute of International Affairs and a figure with close ties to the intellectual wing of the far right—shows up as one of Vance’s friends.” • Unsurprising, I would say, but still interesting.

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Biden (D): “Biden Campaign Schedules an All-Hands as Defections Grow” [NOTUS]. “Democratic leaders signaled in their most direct terms this week that they’re prepared to leak their private conversations with President Joe Biden until he drops out of the 2024 race. And, as of Thursday, the pressure — and the leaks — were only mounting… Democrats told NOTUS on Thursday that members are holding back from an all-out jailbreak from the president, but enough lawmakers are preparing to call on Biden to step aside in the coming days so that the president gets the point. ‘It is building to a head this weekend, and we should have movement,” one House Democrat told NOTUS on Thursday. “So I think many members, out of respect for Biden, will likely wait, but a few will not because, you know, I think what they don’t want is to create any perception by Biden that the opposition is over.’ This lawmaker noted that Biden has seemed to get the message before that he has to step down as the Democratic nominee — only to ignore the opposition and forge ahead. That is why more lawmakers are preparing to go public in the coming days unless Biden indicates he will drop out. ‘We could get some signal from the White House that, you know, they’re preparing a major announcement or something like that, and then everything would freeze,’ this Democrat said. ‘But, you know, short of that, I think there will continue to be some forward motion by members of Congress who want to maintain pressure.'” • So, the dogs are in their kennels, but preparing to bark? And the pressure is leaks? That’s where we are? That’s what we know how to do? (To be fair, the pressure can’t be that, say, Hunter consorted with ladies of negotiable infection, that’s already out there, so what would the pressure be? That Biden said or did The Bad Thing? Who would believe them?)

Republican Funhouse

“The GOP’s Big Working-Class Bet” [Ruy Teixiera, The Liberal Patriot]. “Democrats seem inclined to believe that the GOP’s big bet on the working class—of which the Vance nomination is surely a part—cannot possibly pay off due to the party’s obvious hypocrisy, incoherent policy ideas, and traditional business-oriented commitments. Therefore, the GOP’s latest moves will be of little consequence. Here’s the problem: not only could the GOP’s big bet on the working class pay off—it already is paying off. Let’s go to the tape. In the July New York Times/Siena poll, Biden is losing to Trump by 23 points among working-class likely voters. In their June poll, which was closer to the running average of the polls, Trump led by 17 points among working-class likely voters. Either way, this is a massive shift from the 2020 election where Trump carried these voters by only 4 points and mostly explains why Trump is running ahead this year.”

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

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Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

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* * *

TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

Wastewater
This week[1] CDC July 8: Last Week[2] CDC June 24 (until next week):

Variants [3] CDC July 6 Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC July 8

Hospitalization
New York[5] New York State, data July 17: National [6] CDC June 22:

Positivity
National[7] Walgreens July 15: Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic July 13:
Travelers Data
Positivity[9] CDC June 24: Variants[10] CDC June 24:

Deaths
Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11]CDC July 6: Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12]CDC July 6:

LEGEND

1) for charts new today; all others are not updated.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, with hot spots annotated. Worse than two weeks ago.

[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) LB.1 coming up on the outside.

[4] (ER) This is the best I can do for now. At least data for the entire pandemic is presented.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Now acceleration, which is compatible with a wastewater decrease, but still not a good feeling .(The New York city area has form; in 2020, as the home of two international airports (JFK and EWR) it was an important entry point for the virus into the country (and from thence up the Hudson River valley, as the rich sought to escape, and then around the country through air travel.)

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). This is the best I can do for now. Note the assumption that Covid is seasonal is built into the presentation, which in fact shows that Covid is not seasonal. At least data for the entire pandemic is presented.

[7] (Walgreens) Still going up! (Because there is data in “current view” tab, I think white states here have experienced “no change,” as opposed to have no data.)

[8] (Cleveland) Still going up!

[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Up. Those sh*theads at CDC have changed the chart so that it doesn’t even run back to 1/21/23, as it used to, but now starts 1/1/24. There’s also no way to adjust the time rasnge. CDC really doesn’t want you to be able to take a historical view of the pandemic, or compare one surge to another. In an any case, that’s why the shape of the curve has changed.

[10] (Travelers: Variants) Same deal. Those sh*theads.

[11] Deaths low, but positivity up.

[12] Deaths low, ED up.

Stats Watch

There are no official statistics of interest today,

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Tech: “CrowdStrike fixes start at ‘reboot up to 15 times’ and get more complex from there” [Ars Technica]. “Airlines, payment processors, 911 call centers, TV networks, and other businesses have been scrambling this morning after a buggy update to CrowdStrike’s Falcon security software caused Windows-based systems to crash with a dreaded blue screen of death (BSOD) error message.” • Fifteen times? That’s a lot.

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Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 48 Neutral (previous close: 50 Neutral) [CNN]. One week ago: 54 (Neutral). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Jul 19 at 1:57:39 PM ET.

News of the Wired

“What Would It Take to Recreate Bell Labs?” [Construction Physics]. “AT&T linemen bet with their lives on the integrity of the leather harnesses that kept them tethered at great heights – so Labs technicians established strength and standards for the two-inch leather belts…and improving the metal rivets and parts. Millions of soldered joints held the system together – so Labs engineers had to spend years investigating which fluxes and compounds were best for reinforcing anything from seams on sheet metal to lead joints to copper wires to brass casings… A Bell Labs engineer named Donald Quarles…wrote a long treatise entitled “Motion of Telephone Wires in the Wind.” His men made rigorous, multiyear tests on the proper spans (how far should the poles be spaced apart?), proper lashing (how tight should the wires be wired together?), proper vertical spacing between horizontal strings of wires… Many of the system’s most important cables, meanwhile, were not strung through the air but ran underground. For burying wire, the men in Chester had to develop new processes involving special tractors they invented and splicing techniques.” • Bell Labs wasn’t all people inventing C…

“Want to spot a deepfake? Look for the stars in their eyes” [Royal Astronomical Society]. “AI-generated fakes can be spotted by analysing human eyes in the same way that astronomers study pictures of galaxies. The crux of the work, by University of Hull MSc student Adejumoke Owolabi, is all about the reflection in a person’s eyeballs. If the reflections match, the image is likely to be that of a real human. If they don’t, they’re probably deepfakes.” • Until somebody fixes the algorithm?

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Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From TH:

TH writes: “This is a rose at the Sherman Library and Gardens in Corona Del Mar (Newport Beach, California). There was no identifying label on the rose to tell me what I should order to get this pretty color combination—but then, it’s probably just as well. I’ve had roses and am not sure I’m up to the battle against aphids, rust, mildew, and the like.” The only roses I’ve ever had were Beach Roses, which are invasive and tough, but even they got Japanese beetles, yech.

* * *

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About Lambert Strether

Readers, I have had a correspondent characterize my views as realistic cynical. Let me briefly explain them. I believe in universal programs that provide concrete material benefits, especially to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime example, but tuition-free college and a Post Office Bank also fall under this heading. So do a Jobs Guarantee and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can deliver on such programs, because the two are different flavors of neoliberalism (“Because markets”). I don’t much care about the “ism” that delivers the benefits, although whichever one does have to put common humanity first, as opposed to markets. Could be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don’t much care, as long as the benefits are delivered. To me, the key issue — and this is why Medicare for All is always first with me — is the tens of thousands of excess “deaths from despair,” as described by the Case-Deaton study, and other recent studies. That enormous body count makes Medicare for All, at the very least, a moral and strategic imperative. And that level of suffering and organic damage makes the concerns of identity politics — even the worthy fight to help the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton’s wars created — bright shiny objects by comparison. Hence my frustration with the news flow — currently in my view the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the other by out-of-power liberals and their allies in the State and in the press — a news flow that constantly forces me to focus on matters that I regard as of secondary importance to the excess deaths. What kind of political economy is it that halts or even reverses the increases in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I am also very hopeful that the continuing destruction of both party establishments will open the space for voices supporting programs similar to those I have listed; let’s call such voices “the left.” Volatility creates opportunity, especially if the Democrat establishment, which puts markets first and opposes all such programs, isn’t allowed to get back into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I love the tactical level, and secretly love even the horse race, since I’ve been blogging about it daily for fourteen years, but everything I write has this perspective at the back of it.

143 comments

    1. Samuel Conner

      The thought occurs that “Wretched Hive” might be a good subsection label going forward.

      2016, 2020 and now 2024. This is surely an enduring part of the Party, fulfilling its purpose, into the foreseeable future.

    2. Skip Intro

      As long as Biden is in office, taking the nomination leaves him with the car keys, but doesn’t renew his driver’s license. The democrats put the politics before the job without even noticing.

    3. jax

      The Wretched Hive indeed. I’ve voted Democrat into my seventh decade, but after my experience with the local party during Kerry’s run, and *particularly* after the experience of them planting the shiv in Sanders, the DNC is dead to me. It appears they may be in the process of self-immolating. It couldn’t happen to a nicer group.

  1. Randall Flagg

    >are absolutely a wretched hive of scum and villainy, and the Democrat Party would be far better off if a cleansing fire from Heaven burnt away these podcasters, pundits, strategists, intelligence assets, donors, Flexians, and ice cream connoisseurs, along with the Wizard of Kalorama™ and his entourage.
    Don’t forget to salt the soil they grow from as well. And throw some concrete on top of it, pave it over with 5 inches of asphalt and maybe we can build a road that leads us to a better place.

    1. Old Jake

      But what would be left? Or whom? Or do we care? Indeed, I think someone should, but likely not those who will, pick up the leavings and build anew.

    2. Martin Oline

      Oh God ” I don’t have a dog in this fight” I’m glad I already swallowed my adult beverage before I read that. Where’s my check book? I need to encourage the boy . . .

  2. JustAnotherVolunteer

    That rose would seem to be the very showy but oddly named “Ketchup and Mustard”

    1. Pat

      I get why it is named that, those really are the colors. Still it does not do the bloom’s beauty justice, even if you adore hot dogs with those condiments.

      1. Lunker Walleye

        Agree about the name for such a beautiful flower. How about rosa giallo scarlatto?

          1. Lunker Walleye

            ? Do all yellow roses have thorns? Maybe name it by using pantone matching system numbers? That would be a more apt denominazione than Catsup and Mustard.

            1. ambrit

              Ah, a joke that did not ‘land.’ (I can get too obscure. A character flaw.)
              “Giallo” is a genre of Italian horror book and film. Thus, the thorns reference. Giallo films are also famous for using bright, vivid, saturated colours.
              See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giallo
              I like the Pantone naming concept.
              “Oooooh! A Chartreuse number 6! How beautiful!”

    2. Art_DogCT

      I think you’re correct. Pretty thing, though how the blossom ages might affect its overall appeal for me. There are a couple more photos of the cultivar at High Country Roses (no affiliation).

    3. djrichard

      Could be half-way fitting for fragrance too. Some roses actually do smell like ketchup.

    4. Old Jake

      I find roses to be remarkably rugged. Though I don’t bother with the hybrid tea roses, which produce a few blossoms just for shows and may need special care. The Knockout (TM) Roses in pots on my deck showed no sign of damage this winter, when we had two nights at 6 F that killed everyone’s rosemary plants and a host of others, including those infernal butterfly bushes that pop up where they’re not wanted. Yes, they get mildew and black spot and aphids and back east when I lived there the Japanese beetles would climb all over them, in clusters. Yet they live on. They have, over the years, grown to be one of my favorite plants. Along with the irises that my mother loved so much.

  3. Carolinian

    If you are trying to make us feel sorry for Biden (and I’m sure you’re not) it’s not working. Biden was a bad person before and now he’s a senile bad person. He should be shown just as much human sympathy as he is inclined to show to his many “adversaries.” Which is to say none. IMO.

    1. Bugs

      I’m thinking his general dismissive demeanor and arrogant, nasty behavior over a long career that includes very public condescending and sarcastic exchanges with his peers and those he considered lessors, has finally started to bite him right where it hurts. Couldn’t happen to a nicer guy. Maybe if if had actually acted like a gentleman, and showed real empathy in those key moments, he wouldn’t be in this situation. But he didn’t, because that’s who he is. I hope his descent to Purgatory is as painful as the sum of all he has inflicted on others.

      1. Pat

        Especially in this where the persons within the systems are active participants not just cogs in the wheel.
        I do have to say that trying to pick a ‘winner’ between the people in the system and Biden is like being faced with Trump/Clinton or Trump/Biden again. Where is my none of the above choice? How can both lose?

        1. Henry Moon Pie

          We are part of the system as well. While things are constructed so as to minimize the input of the people into the larger system and to maximize the input from the elites, the people, by their sheer numbers, influence the system and could bring it down if enough of them were willing to work together in concert.

          Right now, most people take the system that exists as an insurmountable given, TINA, and they understand their task to be to survive that system, not change it. Of course, they’re right, but when the system gets to a certain point, a point where the malfunctions or violence against the people reach a point that a “normal life” becomes impossible for enough people, survival requires thinking about some alternatives. In such a time, it’s important what’s on offer. Octavia Butler captures that in the Parable series, a couple of 90s scifi novels set in our time.

          Maybe politics develops “punctuated equilibrium” style, long periods of stagnation and mounting up of problems, with short intervals of rapid change and realignment. Those who want a new world need to be prepared to offer something; otherwise, people like Thiel will control the agenda.

          1. Samuel Conner

            Perhaps in states with procedures that permit citizen-proposed ballot measures, it might be possible via this means (as it is hard to believe that any legislature would do this) to mandate a “None of the above” line on the ballot for every state and national level office. It’s a small thing, but I think that giving people a way of actively expressing (by “voting for no-one” rather than “not voting for anyone”) their disillusionment with what the duopoly offers might be useful.

      2. fjallstrom

        And you are doing a fine job of actually sketching out the system.

        Speaking of the system, I recently listened to the Due Dissidence podcast where they featured a clip from an Adam Smith (I think that was the name) who helpfully explained that the group trying to throw out Biden is the same group that got him elected, because they didn’t like Bernie Sanders. And just the other day somebody from the White House explained that it is the same group trying to overthrow Biden that cleared the runway for Clinton in 2016, instead of giving Biden the coronation back then. Nice of them to confirm that the primaries are rigged by small group, and apparently the same small group.

        The rank and file in the Democratic party have been told for decades that their role is to shut up and vote. So those that haven’t left are ready to shut up and vote Biden. Got to be confusing when suddenly you are allowed to state obvious facts about the president, and apparently have an opinion about who should be president. When asked they will of course say that it is time to shut up and vote, cause for them it always is.

        The voters on the other hand would rather have two better candidates. But nobody cares about that.

        1. nippersdad

          “Nice of them to confirm that the primaries are rigged by small group, and apparently the same small group.”

          Speaking of which, Zoe Lofgren and James Carville are out with a shiny new idea for a “mini-primary” hosted by Obama and Clinton.* No joke, they think the authors of their last few mistakes will pull the party together to prevent future ones. Which reminds me of that time that Obama left it to the bankers who broke the system to be in charge of fixing it. Didn’t work then, won’t work now. But hope springs eternal for those people, even if not for everyone else.

          * https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4782835-senior-democrat-zoe-lofgren-joe-biden-barack-obama-bill-clinton-mini-primary/

          1. Lambert Strether Post author

            > Speaking of which, Zoe Lofgren and James Carville are out with a shiny new idea for a “mini-primary” hosted by Obama and Clinton.*

            The “mini-primary” has been out there for awhile. In a month? Really?

      3. Darius

        Genocide Joe needs to resign today. I don’t care what the Democrats do to get rid of him, even if Kamala or whoever support Israel also. No one is as ignorant and stubborn on Israel/Palestine as Biden. He’s been a true believer since before most Americans were born. No previous presidents would have been as inflexible and passive as Biden, who long ago pledged never to disagree with Israel. Netanyahu leads him around by the nose in a way that no past presidents would have tolerated. Including the orange man.

    2. Pavel

      I’ve followed US politics (from afar and from the States) since Carter v Reagan (that ages me, I know!) and have come to the conclusion that Biden is the worst* president in my lifetime. And that obviously includes such horrors as GBs père et fils, the slimy Clinton, and Peace Prize Droning Prez Obama.

      *Worst as in: most dishonest, hypocritical, warmongering, racist, grifting, censoring, and least transparent. Did I leave anything out? Narcissistic? Bringing the world to the brink of nuclear war? Genocidal?

      1. GramSci

        There’s a pattern there. I always call it the “venality of Empire”. It’s like a population of neurons playing “King of the Hill”, a popular neighborhood game among my six year-old playmates.

      2. Darius

        I can’t think of a worse president than Biden, unless it’s Buchanan or Andrew Johnson. Like Biden, both combined stubbornness and obstinacy with ignorance or delusions.

        1. John Wright

          George W. Bush is the major contender for worst USA President due to the harm he caused internally and externally.

          The Iraq/Afghanistan estimated expense bill is around 8.8 trillion dollars (26K per USA citizen) + 1 million excess deaths (of foreign citizens) +7K USA deaths (and 30K suicides in service members) after Bush’s wars of choice.

          See https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/costs/human/military/killed for military deaths/suicides.

          And where was the deeply religious George Bush when it came to owning up to his mistakes and pushing for reparations for all the harm he caused?

          GWB shredded USA civil liberties, increased surveillance in USA and elsewhere and stuffed people in Guantanamo (where some 30 remain).

          Biden pales in comparison, only has 500K dead Ukrainians and destruction of one foreign country on his record.

          There is no excuse for Bush as he had the privileged upbringing AND family connections to leverage in doing a passible job.

          Biden, at least, has dementia as a mitigating excuse.

          In my view, Bush2 is the champion “Worst President” in many ways, he earned the title with margin.

          1. Lambert Strether Post author

            > Biden pales in comparison, only has 500K dead Ukrainians and destruction of one foreign country on his record.

            You forgot the dead from his pandemic response.

            That said, I think Bush the Younger did more systemic damage than Biden did, as you urge. I also think the liberal Democrat tendency toward moral preening, “I’m smarter than you,” and snark as performativity really took root under Bush (the last in the blogosphere, in which I participated, sadly).

          2. Pavel

            This would all be true, except that Biden was at the time head of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. He had it within his means to stop or at least delay the war; instead he promoted it.

            And then recently of course he denied that role and those words and claimed to have been against it at the time.

            Even GWB isn’t so shameless.

            Thus on these grounds I consider Biden worse than GWB.

            1. Darius

              Iraq and the GWOT were definitely catastrophic. I think Biden, consciously or not, is building on those fiascos and is actively setting the world on fire in several critical areas. Russia, China, and the Middle East. He and his people vastly overestimate their own competence, and deal in cliches and unfounded notions. They are pursuing the neocon agenda even more forcefully than Trump’s team of horribles did. You just want to shake these people out of whatever mental state they are in.

    3. JTMcPhee

      Why, when I think about the shitstorm of “Our Democracy ™” at this juncture, does the curious event at Chernobyl in Country 404 come to mind? “Da, tovarisch, if we just twist this knob and pull this lever, everything vill be choost fine, under control.”

      1. John Anthony La Pietra

        “You can’t put too much water in a nuclear reactor.” (H/T and RIP Ed Asner.)

  4. Pat

    Democrats seem inclined to believe that the GOP’s big bet on the working class—of which the Vance nomination is surely a part—cannot possibly pay off due to the party’s obvious hypocrisy, incoherent policy ideas, and traditional business-oriented commitments.”

    Funny you could use that description other than ‘traditional’ to describe the last thirty or so years of the Democratic Party relationship with the working class. And yes, Joe Biden was a big part of that betrayal.
    Scranton Joe’s relationship to his supposedly working class beginnings was always illusory. I believe that his and the party’s dismantling of the CARES Act provisions and tax breaks was so hurtful and unnecessary it ripped the final scales from many eyes. Then they had the audacity to declare Joe the new FDR. People who remember and revere the accomplishments of Roosevelt were left wondering WTH they were talking about and if they had any idea what FDR did outside of fight Hitler.

    Similar to the denial that Ukraine has lost, and we really aren’t ready to go to war with either Russia or China, the Democratic inner circle are deep in denial of how badly they have lost the poor and working classes of America. Taking them for granted is one day going to be counted as one of their biggest mistakes. (Another big myth that will be coming to bite them in the nether regions is that immigrants will vote for them, especially Hispanic and Asian immigrants. They just don’t seem to have gotten that you can’t just service the donors, and keep voters loyalty.)

    1. flora

      I big part of the talk at last night’s convention – and all week – was about inflation, low wages, the bad economy on Main Street, and what a T presidency would do to improve the economics of working people and on Main Street, including the idea of “no tax on tips.” It was sort of like B. Clinton’s 1992 run that emphasized the economy of working class people: “It’s the economy, stupid.” when C was on the campaign trail. Once in office that talk went out the window. T may do the same. The Dems, however, have no reason to criticize an opponent pol using essentially their same idea for his run. (Or maybe they do, given the comparisons.) / ;)

      1. GramSci

        That?s a great link. I’m learning so much more about JD Vance.

        It’s always fun to see two Yale JD’s go at each other, especially when one is a dyke and a Cecil Rhodes Scholar, and the other is Peter Thiel’s Marine PR bitch.

        1. flora

          Fun fact: Maddow and co were not broadcasting from Milwaukee. They were using a green screen backdrop and projecting digital images from the convention to make it look like they were there live and in person. / heh

          Matt and Walter on Day 4 discussing Rachel’s show. utube. pre-rap up show.

          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vHXG2fKIyyo

          Following politics used to be my idea of following sports teams… until politics got boring. It’s not boring now. / ;)

      2. Tony Wikrent

        Stoller writes ” In World War II, America won because we invented better technology – not the government – but the private sector, the ‘Little tech’ guys like Henry Ford and Thomas Edison, whose legacy Andreessen and Horowitz see themselves as upholding.”

        This is just completely wrong. After the dismal performance of US businesses during World War One (for example, US designed combat aircraft were markedly inferior, and shunned by pilots) Army CoS George Marshall created the Army Industrial College in 1924. Almost all the senior commanders of WW2 rotated through the AIC. They and the AIC staff conducted and compiled a nation-wide survey of every manufacturing facility in the US. Everything was entered on notecards: name, products, capacity, owners, managers, machine tools and other production equipment, even shop foremen in some cases.
        ,
        Actual planning for the “Arsenal of Democracy” began in June 1940, when Edsel Ford, Ford production chief Charlie Sorenson, and GM president William Knudsen were summoned to Washington DC and agreed to build 9,000 Rolls Royce Merlin aircraft engines in their Detroit factories.

        Henry Ford was a hardline isolationist, and flatly refused to cooperate with anything having to do with building weapons or war material for European powers. Henry remained an obstacle even after the US entered the war; Ford Motor Co,’s war contributions, including the massive Willow Run bomber plant, were entirely the work of son Edsel and Sorenson. Henry was not the only corporate leaders who refused to cooperate. Montgomery Ward CEO Sewell Avery resisted government price and rationing decrees, and was forcibly carried out of his office by military police in April 1944, when Avery refused to obey an order of the National War Labor Board.

        To overcome resistance in both the military and the business community, Knudsen was commissioned a lieutenant general in the Army — the one and only civilian given flag rank during the war — and given great power and leeway to force obedience to his bidding.

        In July 1940, an act of Congress placed production and exports of machine tools place under the review by Machine Tool Committee of the Army-Navy Munitions Board. This was superseded in January 1941 by Office of Production Management, headed by Knudsen. OPM in turn was replaced by the the War Production Board in January 1942. Wikipedia entry notes:

        The WPB directed conversion of companies engaged in activities relevant to war from peacetime work to war needs, allocated scarce materials, established priorities in the distribution of materials and services, and prohibited nonessential production.[3] It rationed such commodities as gasoline, heating oil, metals, rubber, paper,[4] and plastics… In 1942–1945, WPB supervised the production of $183 billion (equivalent to $2.46 trillion in 2023[5]) worth of weapons and supplies, about 40 percent of the world output of munitions.

        Then there is the development of computers by the War Dept. Bureau of Ordnance and the Navy’s Office of Naval Research. It was not private industry. It was entirely government research programs that created the technologies of early computers. The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers histories of the development of computers cover all this in full.

        There are many other examples of government leadership in developing new technologies during WW2, including in aerodynamics, radio, and medical science.

        Stoller, Andreessen and Horowitz are completely wrong on actual history in this case

        1. Yves Smith

          Yes, Marianna Mazzucato wrote an important and well-substantiated book. The Entrepreneurial State, which described in detail how the federal government was responsible for the foundational research that launched major industries and products. This is particularly true in drugs. She points out that the private sector cannot take the risk to engage in basic R&D.

          1. MFB

            I’ve just been reading that. It gives the details where most people are content with anecdotes (enormous amounts of info on the government investment in the technology behind the IPod.) I think she’s too conservative in some ways, but perhaps she could be read together with Ha-Joon Chang . . .

    2. none

      I saw a minute of Vance’s speech on the news, and thought I was listening to Bernie Sanders. The Dems are sooo hosed.

    1. Carolinian

      Or at least an ankle bracelet. No word on whether he left another bag of cocaine at the White House while advising his father not to quit.

      Earlier there was a rumor that he was actually living at the White House in order to dodge Congressional subpoenas. That was before his felony trial.

      1. jo6pac

        He didn’t the leave the bag this time do him a daddy using all up;-) Then on his way out cia handed him another.

  5. stefan

    The meaning of life lies not in prospering, but in the development of the soul.

    Trump popularity is at its apex today, yet there are a hundred days to go.

    Who among the Democrats has stood up to say “I’ve got the fire in my belly!” ?

    1. dave -- just dave

      Rep. Seth Moulton, who offered himself as a candidate for President in 2020, has not quite explicitly done so this year, but he does say, in a Boston Globe op-ed reiterating his view that Biden should relinquish his candidacy, “This is not Democrats in disarray, as critics might say. This is a huge opportunity for our party. It’s an opportunity to respond to the overwhelming majority of Americans who don’t want to be stuck with the same two candidates we had in 2020.”

      Very loyal Democrats I know personally support Biden continuing his campaign. They also hate Bernie and blame him for Hillary’s loss in 2016, contrary to my own view, so while I am fond of them, I don’t agree with them. As the Eastern proverb goes, “There is such a thing as destiny, but continue with your own plans — and if they are in accordance with destiny you may reap a rich reward.”

      1. GramSci

        Aah! It was her turn! Two sexes of a species in which reproduction entails extinction. Surely there’s scifi movie about that?

  6. Mark Gisleson

    re: the stars in their eyes

    Had to laugh out loud at this one. The first thing anyone who digitally retouches photos learns — after getting the red eyes out — is how to add a sparkle to your eyes and/or teeth. Touched up photos will now be flagged as deepfakes? Too funny.

  7. Tommy S.

    Thanks for your rage Lambert, about the party. It is not over blown at all. Just look at climate change and what damage Biden did…and now Trump? The circus before the apocalypse. And then a simple thing, with the money there —can’t even be done. Newsom’s homeless budget is ‘great’ and huge! And what housing does it build off market? It’s all almost all subsidies to landlords and shelters and NGOs. Social city owned housing cannot be done. Because…would disrupt the profit and markets. Then health care. How many die a year due to lack of or costs…dying before their time? 200,000???? Most of my old friends and young friends are at a boiling point.

          1. Lunker Walleye

            Good question. Will certain people fear getting in the driver’s seat and starting the ignition? Favorite restaurants being fire-bombed?

        1. flora

          The plotline of Turandot, per wiki.

          ” “Nessun dorma” (Italian: [nesˌsun ˈdɔrma]; English: “Let no one sleep”)[1] is an aria from the final act of Giacomo Puccini’s opera Turandot (text by Giuseppe Adami and Renato Simoni) and one of the best-known tenor arias in all opera. It is sung by Calaf, il principe ignoto (the unknown prince), who falls in love at first sight with the beautiful but cold Princess Turandot. Any man who wishes to wed Turandot must first answer her three riddles; if he fails, he will be beheaded. In the aria, Calaf expresses his triumphant assurance that he will win the princess.”

          Not a revenge song, per se. Was used that way in a movie. When Melania entered the hall a beautiful Mozart or Beethoven music was played.
          Maybe, who knows, Nessun Dorma was a tribute to Melania when she was on stage with him.

          English translation of the lyrics:
          https://genius.com/Genius-english-translations-nessun-dorma-english-translation-lyrics

          1. Lunker Walleye

            >Not a revenge song, per se.
            Thank you. I see the association of revenge is with the movie.

            1. flora

              You’re welcome. It was used almost ironically in the movie, imo. The bad guys were thinking ‘I win, I win, I win’ by starting a nuclear war. But trying to start a nuclear was the wrong answer to the questions, and so they ‘lost their heads.’ / ;)

            2. hk

              What I was thinking was that as the bad guys were about to get blown up, US and Russian leaders were signing an agreement averting the nuclear crisis. A lot of verisimilitude there–and who the real life “bad guys” seem obvious.

    1. Martin Oline

      Thanks for this link. Something that I don’t usually have the opportunity to listen. Will have to watch more often. Watching people re-hash events is something I usually won’t indulge in, like that Monday review of Sunday talk shows.

  8. nippersmom

    I received this text earlier today:
    Hi (Nippersmom). This is Bob volunteering with Gov. Gavin Newsom. Yes, I am a real person texting this and I hope you’ll reply.
    I’m reaching out as part of an effort to make sure Democratic voters turn out in Georgia this November.

    Is there any chance you’d be willing to volunteer at least once this election to help elect Joe Biden and Democrats up and down the ballot?

    I’ll be here waiting for your reply. Thanks.- Bob

    Wonder if they’re trying to test the waters as to how willing people they perceive as “democratic voters” really are to vote for Biden, perhaps with a view to sharing the “no” responses to convince Biden to drop out. The mention of working for Newsom suggests they want to keep him at the top of voters minds, perhaps to create support for inserting him as the replacement. Not really sure.

    Unfortunately, I had to crush Bob’s hopes by informing him that I am not a “Democratic voter” and, as I do not support nazis or genocide, will not be voting Biden under any circumstances. To Bob’s credit, he did reply that he understood.

    1. Lee

      It’s nice to be understood.

      I’ve seen various members of the Democrat punditocracy turning the blame cannons on, not as Biden has so hypocritically done, the elites, but rather upon the rank and file Democrats— their own fractious, unruly. and ungrateful voters. In other words, sucking up and punching down.

      1. petal

        Gosh, it’s only been 11 days, not last month. Sorry. The past 2 weeks sure feels like it’s been a month.

  9. pjay

    “CrowdStrike fixes start at ‘reboot up to 15 times’ and get more complex from there” [Ars Technica].

    Well, they had to bury that fake “Russia cyberattack” command pretty deeply. Too bad it went off prematurely.

    1. Young

      When Crowdstrike struck today, I wondered what would happen if everybody convert from fiat-based currency to faith-based currency.
      Will our prayers bring networks back up so that our AI-driven computers talk to each other again to consummate the bitcoin transactions?

  10. DJG, Reality Czar

    Lambert Strether: I am going to jog your metaphor.

    Instead of the wretched hive, I will venture that it is colony collapse disorder. The system is collapsing under the weight of its bad faith and corruption.

    More soon. This weekend I left the Undisclosed Region to visit the Undisclosed National Capital, home of maritozzi. We are not celebrating the reelection of Grifter van der Leyen (with support from the Italian Dems, who are strangely like the U.S. Dems). The nonentity Roberta Metsola was reelected chair of the Europarlamento. Like so many White Chicks, they are now proposing more war.

    As Ursula would say, The prosthesis industry is on the rise, and Europe must be in the forefront.

    1. DJG, Reality Czar

      To put It bluntly, I don’t see how the party elite tosses Angry Old Joe out the window and survives.

      There is a sacral side to the presidency, deeply woven into U.S. politics — and, more importantly, culture. It Is slow to change. Biden knows this, which is why he is evoking god.

      How do the Dems avoid the look that they just pushed FDR in his wheelchair down the staircase?

      Do they admit to messing with the primaries in 2020 and 2024? So cleverly that the talent-free Buttigieg was frontrunner for a week?

      And that the signature events of Biden’s misrule, blowing up Nord Stream, the genocide in Palestine, the proxy war in Ucraine, now at one million casualties, they are all some unfortunate accident? Or a supercool plot twist at the end of Barbie The Movie?

      1. Useless Eater

        They survive by picking the right candidate to replace him. There is only one. You know who. Otherwise, you’re right.

      2. Phenix

        Did you forget to mention 2016? They actively colluded against Sanders on 2016. The results in multiple states did not match exit polls.

    2. lambert strether

      > I am going to jog your metaphor.

      “Wretched hive”, however, echoes KHive (absolutely the worst tribe to tangle with on the Twitter in 2020, now gearing up for another go, bless their hearts).

      1. DJG, Reality Czar

        Lambert Strether: Aha.

        Not being on TwiXter, and keeping the screechy out of the friendses list on FacetoBk, I forgot about the Angry Schoolmarm Brigade.

        Metaphorically, I have a high tolerance for bees and a low tolerance for scoundrels

      2. GramSci

        On a positive note, my email on the obscenity of Janet Yellen deep-sixing Jill Stein’s candidacy caused my sister Karen to rebuke my other sister Karen.

        Sad to hear Bob Newhart passed away. He was one of the few who seemed to sincerely try to understand.

  11. Matthew G. Saroff

    Am I the only one who thinks that the real impetus for the (so far) attempted defenestration of Joe Biden is because they want to can folks like Lina Khan and Gary Gensler and kill things like better regulation of Wall Street and higher taxes on the rich?

    Joe Biden is, on the domestic front, the most liberal President since (checks notes) Richard M. Nixon, and much of the PMC does not like this.

    1. Lambert Strether Post author

      > Am I the only one who thinks that the real impetus for the (so far) attempted defenestration of Joe Biden is because they want to can folks like Lina Khan and Gary Gensler and kill things like better regulation of Wall Street and higher taxes on the rich?

      For shame!MR SUBLIMINAL No!

      Though I can’t understand why Biden isn’t campaigning on Lina Khan. Why do it, then not campaign on it?

      1. Matthew G. Saroff

        “Why do it, then not campaign on it?”

        Because Biden thinks that his horrible foreign policy is his strength.

      2. Henry Moon Pie

        As far as Biden knows, the guy running the FTC is following the “nothing will fundamentally change” script.

      3. Jason Boxman

        I’ve wondered about this. How did she get the FTC? What conversations were had? How did her name get on a nominee list for this? It’s not like his advisors are populist. So how did that name even get to his desk? Or was it someone else? Weird.

        1. Samuel Conner

          Perhaps behind-scenes horse trading?

          LK would have been on the short list for high appointments in a notional Sanders administration. Perhaps this was a concession to him in exchange for his support in the 2020 general campaign.

      4. GramSci

        «Why do it, then not campaign on it?»

        Because Joe doesn’t much know or care what Lina Khan is doing. And because Lina has been careful to pick fights Joe wouldn’t notice.

        RealPage? Ok. Google? Bill Gates? Not so much.

        1. Samuel Conner

          It would be a delicious irony if the good things that were accomplished during the JRB administration were not creditable to JRB, but to Sanders’ behind scenes influence.

          I have the impression that getting modest but not inconsequential beneficial changes on the margin (politics being the art of what is possible) is kind of in Sanders’ style.

          Perhaps the bits of JRB’s presidential legacy on which he hangs his “most progressive since LBJ” claim are actually down to Sanders’ influence. I don’t think that JRB is any kind of “good friend” to Sanders, but Sanders might be a very good friend to JRB. That, I think, would be in his style too.

  12. lyman alpha blob

    RE: Biden left feeling angry and betrayed by top Democratic leaders wavering on his campaign

    Boo [family blog]ing hoo.

    Perhaps SlowJoe has forgotten how he became the nominee in 2020 after party leadership stuck the shiv in Sanders for his benefit. And now he can’t believe it happened to him? It’s like someone who has an affair with a married person, wins them over, and then is surprised when they get cheated on and dumped themselves.

    You reap what you sow, Joe, and it couldn’t have happened to a nicer guy.

    1. lambert strether

      I don’t know which I’m looking forward to more: Kamala’s speech, or the liberalgasm that follows it.

    2. Geo

      The elites giveth and the elites taketh away. Being a good Catholic boy Joe should know this. And Jill might want to read it and see what happened to Job’s wife.

      “Bernie Sanders looked like the presumptive nominee, and this exact same group of people the president is now deriding as elites decided they didn’t want Bernie Sanders to be the nominee.”

      https://youtu.be/aa4vdCp9UCs?si=9kmCmBY7fSgwLXkG

  13. none

    Biden left feeling angry and betrayed by top Democratic leaders wavering on his campaign” [NBC News].

    Bernie Sanders sends his condolences.

  14. griffen

    I would have ventured today’s index would be flashing a 187, or possibly a 188! Internet outages, a Presidential campaign appearing to turn more chaotic still, and the “apocalyptic undertones” of the just completed convention for Orange Man Bad. And the flooding and record levels of rainfall.

    https://www.raptureready.com/rapture-ready-index

    Okay I kid, I kid but just a little. As for scenarios becoming worse, I’ll often think of this movie quote by Swayze in the original Roadhouse.

    Double Deuce owner. “Well it was a good night, and nobody died.”
    Dalton. “It’ll get worse before it gets better.”

  15. truly

    If the purpose of the system is what it does, well then, the purpose was to put the D’s back in weak minority status where they can hand wring and exclaim “there is just nothing we can do until we get the majority back”. Then if their loyal foot soldiers (as I once was) get them the Whitehouse and the majority (0bama 2008) it will expose yet again that their real comfort zone is being in the weak spot and that they never intended to do anything they purported to.

    Can you imagine what Trump will do with 52 Senators and House majority?

    Trump could find himself in an odd place- a man who liked to play the Heel, now by dodging a bullet finds himself in Hero or God role. I suspect when truly given the reigns of Power he will be much more subtle and careful than his opponents fear. His actual legacy could become that of the man who turned the R party into more of a working mans party that does not focus so heavily on social issues, but on a better balance between Domestic issues and War. He may realize you cant remain a real estate and development magnate without a more stable middle class. I suspect he cares about as much about the Bible thumpers as the Dems ever cared about Medicare for All crowd. They are just useful voters to get you into the system where you can do whatever your real agenda is.

    1. Useless Eater

      You could just change a word or two (like from D to R) in your first paragraph and the rest of it is word for word what the right says in its echo chambers. You could copy and paste it

    2. Procopius

      Then if their loyal foot soldiers (as I once was) get them the Whitehouse and the majority (0bama 2008) …

      I’m so glad to see you using the word, “majority,” rather than, “super-majority,” as so many do. IMHO, the word, “majority,” is ambiguous in this context. The meaningful number is 60. If you don’t have more than 60, your “majority” is a “minority.” The Democrats only had 60 from the beginning of July, 2009, when Frank was certified, until August, 2009, when Kennedy died, and that’s counting the two independents. I don’t mind people blaming Obama, but blaming him on the basis that he “had a supermajority” in his first two years is egregious.

  16. Henry Moon Pie

    The more I hear about Vance, the more I think the Chiefs may lose their kicker–not until after the next Super Bowl of course. ;)

  17. Jeremy Grimm

    The latest bill from my primary care doctor included a $20 charge for “Longitudinal Care” — whatever that is supposed to be. Best I can tell it is some kind of bullshit for saving money by “integrating” the care provided. What will they think of next? I guess a charge for “Latitudinal Care” or perhaps “Vertical Care” might come next. Pretty soon bills for medical care will include as many baloney charges as my phone bills.

    1. JTMcPhee

      Kind of like the mysterious “environmental charge” on your invoice from the auto dealer, after the “dealer prep” ripoff in the original transaction.

      We are “rendered used to it,” so it continues…

  18. Mikel

    I have to fly next week and if my flight out is delayed, I’m going to cancel the trip.
    Since I broke my layover rule, I’m not going to risk getting to the layover and being delayed again. Not spending a day at airports.

      1. Mikel

        Yeah, there’s an argument to be made that DEI had the unfortunate timing of coming along when a lot shit was already in various stages of hyper-financialized crappification.

  19. .Tom

    > 9. Democrats are acting like an … actual party?

    Let’s say: yes. But then I have to ask, an actual party of what?

    A party of careerists and opportunists, not a party of politicians.

    1. Acacia

      This. Their priority is clearly money, not politics.

      Their true consistency is the donors. As Yves put it: the voters are chumps.

      Their relationship to the system of politics is parasitic, and they are only willing to share the host’s body with the GOP. No others are allowed to drink the blood and consume the energy units (in Burroughs’ sense, since Lambert mentioned him this week).

      So, not really a political party, but a party in the sense of “ party to the crime”.

      Hopefully, Joe will hang on to the bitter end, arguing and shouting down everyone who disagrees, finally going fully incoherent before being grabbed, strapped to a gurney, and wheeled out in awkward silence.

  20. Louiedog14

    Clusterstrike Snafu

    To mangle one of Lambert’s maxims:

    If your Society relies on a platform, you have no Society.

    Could Maggie Thatcher have been right after all? Hmmm….

  21. VietnamVet

    The big families have bypassed the corporate-state’s supra-institutions by reasserting the sovereignty of nations and elections. In particular, in 2025, the Republicans (if they gain control all branches of governments) have the ideology and the power to fire the executive branch Democrats and all of the fellow-traveler civil-servants and seize control. Conservatives in Great Britain fell flat on their faces. Macron is next with the magical rise of the Left. The European proxy WW3 is on the point of an autocratic armistice, partition of Central Europe, and re-powering European industry with Russian natural gas.

    The Fall of the Western Empire, is the whole point. If the Democrats can’t control the Senate, they’ve lost everything. Corporate financing ends. Joe Biden’s defeats from Kabul to Suez have brought on this moment. The Deep State could be terminated. He and his staff (the Blob) are as incompetent and corrupt as he looks. Democrats have lost control of government. Even after invoking Iran, the executive branch is incapable of protecting itself in Butler County PA.

    The only chance for the continuance of the Western Empire is the current President’s resignation and a Pentagon/Corporation vetted Emperor younger than 65 years old approved by a narrow margin in November 2024 USA election and the rebirth of the European Union.

  22. Lambert Strether Post author

    “AOC just spent an hour weighing in on efforts to replace Biden as the nominee. It’s an important listen” [ThreadReaderApp]. A summary of AOC’s video. This is important, or at least reinforces my priors, in that I’ve been saying the same things in different ways for some weeks now:

    3. Replacement efforts, AOC argues, are primarily donor driven not voter driven—especially insofar as they’re motivating her colleagues in Congress

    “What I’m hearing from my colleagues is ‘my donors this, my donors that,’ not ‘my voters this my voters that.’” “I’m not here to dismiss everyday people who have this opinion,” she says [i.e. that Joe needs to go]. But “the mechanisms by which this decision is being made are concerning me.”

    She portrays replacement efforts as the work of elites who have not gamed out a clear alternative.

    4. Donors & elites driving “Joe must go” are not united behind Harris, AOC argues.

    “The people in these rooms,” she says, “don’t have a plan.” Many are critical of Harris, or engaging in wishful thinking about other candidates & impracticable notions of an open convention.

    I don’t much like that AOC decided to turn into Pelosi, instead of replacing Pelosi and all she stands for. But she’s not dumb, either.

    1. Jason Boxman

      This is kind of my take as well, insofar as the power brokers that be engineered Biden as the nominee in a closed primary process without only a single possible outcome. At this late a date, they need to run hard with the candidate that they picked. To thrash about cluelessly now says much about many of the Democrat Party elite and their donors, and the lack of executive function we see in tackling our greatest challenges. But this is folly.

      This of course is counter to the non-electoral reality, which is Biden is senile and won’t survive another term, and its best for the republic that he not run or be replaced, even if liberal Democrats lose. But we know that they aren’t motivated by what is good for all Americans, or even care about “our democracy” being credibly functional in the executive. So, for gods sake, at least do the electorally smart thing and be All In on Biden. Sheesh.

      The Democrat Party is truly run by whackjobs and clowns, self gratifying hacks.

      It would amuse me greatly if, instead of Republicans becoming the rump party predicted at DKos back in 2008, it is actually 16 years later the Democrat Party that becomes unelectable. Ha. Ha.

  23. Lambert Strether Post author

    Here is a second summary of the same AOC from ThreadReaderApp:

    There are several reasons she’s come to the conclusion she has. First, the legal challenges in Ohio and other swing states with respect to getting a new name on the ballot are very serious.

    Republicans are going to challenge EVERYTHING and there would be a serious possibility of the election being decided by the courts.
    Next, people are underestimating what it takes to run a campaign and there isn’t consensus around Harris. A lot of people in the room don’t just wanna remove Biden and slot Harris in, but don’t have a plan.

    If it’s a new nominee, money can’t be transferred. No one has come forward with a plan. And @RepAOC doesn’t mean the pundits, she means the lawyers and legislators have not presented a plan about what’s possible. She has not seen a scenario that does not set us up for peril.

    The convention is in a month and Michigan has to finalize their ballot two days after convention. If you have a bunch of nominees, you could blow past that deadline.

    I have never been able to dig out the rationale behind ballot challenges, but AOC does seem to have been briefed (as I would expect of a Congress critter). Ditto the money. But as for the lack of planning, 100%. The only alternative I can imagine is that somebody (Pelosi, Obama) has been working in an underground bunker creating three-ring binders for all the players, with steps and a timeline laid out, plus talking points, plus the legal rationales). So they shove Biden out the window and distribute the binders and off we go. But I can’t see it. That’s a campaign-scale effort, and I don’t think the Wretched Hive has the operational capability.

    1. griffen

      It’s a bit out of Rip Van Winkle…Asleep from the brunches and all the winning*, elite heavyweights like a Reid Hoffman were focusing the blame cannons on Trump, Trump and even Trump incorporated. Legal means and the court dockets would insure Trump can’t win if Trump can’t run!

      Didn’t go according to plan, above being a personal hypothetical. And now awake from their slumber and deep winter hibernation, Democrats are shocked to their very core. Joe Biden is now old, looks infirm and sounds worse. Why as of February this year we all read the Hur report on were vehemently opposed to that reports condemning summation of Dear Leader!

      It’s late, they have few options and no, dear media members, there is only a deep bench of B and C options to immediately replace Biden on the 2024 ticket. And as I was thinking earlier this past week, it appears a fool’s errand to suddenly be the replacement and face a now reinvigorated Trump campaign.

      Democrats can pound sand for it. Schumer, Pelosi, Jefferies…celebs like Colbert, Rob Reiner, and so the list grows.

    1. ambrit

      It’s a real shame that this “working lunch” didn’t take place at a wet market.

  24. Lambert Strether Post author

    Biden doesn’t sound like a man who’s ready to go. Also yesterday:

    This is Psalm 37:

    1 Fret not thyself because of evildoers, neither be thou envious against the workers of iniquity.

    2 For they shall soon be cut down like the grass, and wither as the green herb.

    3 Trust in the Lord, and do good; so shalt thou dwell in the land, and verily thou shalt be fed.

    4 Delight thyself also in the Lord: and he shall give thee the desires of thine heart.

    5 Commit thy way unto the Lord; trust also in him; and he shall bring it to pass.

    6 And he shall bring forth thy righteousness as the light, and thy judgment as the noonday.

    7 Rest in the Lord, and wait patiently for him: fret not thyself because of him who prospereth in his way, because of the man who bringeth wicked devices to pass.

    8 Cease from anger, and forsake wrath: fret not thyself in any wise to do evil.

    9 For evildoers shall be cut off: but those that wait upon the Lord, they shall inherit the earth.

    10 For yet a little while, and the wicked shall not be: yea, thou shalt diligently consider his place, and it shall not be.

    11 But the meek shall inherit the earth; and shall delight themselves in the abundance of peace.

    12 The wicked plotteth against the just, and gnasheth upon him with his teeth.

    13 The Lord shall laugh at him: for he seeth that his day is coming.

    14 The wicked have drawn out the sword, and have bent their bow, to cast down the poor and needy, and to slay such as be of upright conversation.

    15 Their sword shall enter into their own heart, and their bows shall be broken.

    16 A little that a righteous man hath is better than the riches of many wicked.

    17 For the arms of the wicked shall be broken: but the Lord upholdeth the righteous.

    18 The Lord knoweth the days of the upright: and their inheritance shall be for ever.

    19 They shall not be ashamed in the evil time: and in the days of famine they shall be satisfied.

    20 But the wicked shall perish, and the enemies of the Lord shall be as the fat of lambs: they shall consume; into smoke shall they consume away.

    21 The wicked borroweth, and payeth not again: but the righteous sheweth mercy, and giveth.

    22 For such as be blessed of him shall inherit the earth; and they that be cursed of him shall be cut off.

    23 The steps of a good man are ordered by the Lord: and he delighteth in his way.

    24 Though he fall, he shall not be utterly cast down: for the Lord upholdeth him with his hand.

    25 I have been young, and now am old; yet have I not seen the righteous forsaken, nor his seed begging bread.

    26 He is ever merciful, and lendeth; and his seed is blessed.

    27 Depart from evil, and do good; and dwell for evermore.

    28 For the Lord loveth judgment, and forsaketh not his saints; they are preserved for ever: but the seed of the wicked shall be cut off.

    29 The righteous shall inherit the land, and dwell therein for ever.

    30 The mouth of the righteous speaketh wisdom, and his tongue talketh of judgment.

    31 The law of his God is in his heart; none of his steps shall slide.

    32 The wicked watcheth the righteous, and seeketh to slay him.

    33 The Lord will not leave him in his hand, nor condemn him when he is judged.

    34 Wait on the Lord, and keep his way, and he shall exalt thee to inherit the land: when the wicked are cut off, thou shalt see it.

    35 I have seen the wicked in great power, and spreading himself like a green bay tree.

    36 Yet he passed away, and, lo, he was not: yea, I sought him, but he could not be found.

    37 Mark the perfect man, and behold the upright: for the end of that man is peace.

    38 But the transgressors shall be destroyed together: the end of the wicked shall be cut off.

    39 But the salvation of the righteous is of the Lord: he is their strength in the time of trouble.

    40 And the Lord shall help them, and deliver them: he shall deliver them from the wicked, and save them, because they trust in him.

    1. Steve H.

      > But the transgressors shall be destroyed together: the end of the wicked shall be cut off.

      There are people in DC now that Trump thinks tried to have him killed, and Biden thinks betrayed him. In this time of ‘official acts’, that really is existential.

    2. Samuel Conner

      > Trust in the Lord, and do good;

      Thankfully, JRB has a good friend in Bernie Sanders to function as an influence on his conscience.

      1. ambrit

        Conscience? Isn’t the conscience one of the first cognitive functions degraded by Long Covid?

  25. Lambert Strether Post author

    Still pushing the “He lied to us!” line, which is stupid. Biden’s decline was visible to a lot of dull normals for a long time. Of course, if you’re a bootlicker, maybe you’re too close to the problem to see it.

    Just another way for Democrats to evade taking responsibility, which they consistently do (even for good things, like Lina Khan).

    NOTE 1 California operative Atkins could be marking the argument that it was Biden’s “sudden decline” that was being concealed, not decline generallym but that’s not the talking point on the blast fax, and so he’s not making it.

    NOTE 2 “Profoundly!” These shallow fools don’t have a profound bone in the bodies…

  26. Lambert Strether Post author

    It’s almost as if CDC is expecting something they’re not telling us about:

    Of course CDC butchered the instructions:

    Naturally, when corneal abrasion, by Murphy’s Law, does happen — “But I followed the directions!” — that will make the media, and the entire testing progam will be discredited, Mandy, good job.

    1. Jason Boxman

      LOL this is from the crowd that gave us the upside down KN94 with the N95 logo affixed to it; I honestly don’t think they care. There’s no executive function left in that organization. We’d be much better off if People’s CDC became the official CDC, and these other hacks were all fired and disbarred from commenting about public health on penalty of being sent to enjoy tropical diseases somewhere outside the country.

      The CDC is deeply unserious, not just ineffectual, but deadly effectual at spreading lies about airborne disease and seasonal illness.

    1. ambrit

      Could she have the dreaded new Coronavirus variant?
      At present, my money is on “Creepy” Joe Biden suffering an “unfortunate event” soon at a campaign rally.
      Who on the Democrat Party bench is getting trim and fit right now?

    2. Ben Panga

      Narrator “Joe’s face softened, his age, isolation, and many traumas showing through tired gimlet eyes. He looked down at the car keys, still clenched in his ginger-tinged fist.

      “It’s not because I’m too old…” he began before tailing off.

      “We know that, you’re our lion!” averred chess professional Nancy, as she stepped forward and caught the keys, now falling, forgotten, from Joe’s wizened paw.”

  27. WG

    Georgia has shifted to leaning Red with the latest polls and is at the moment not a swing state. That means Trump just needs to win Pennsylvania and hold the states he’s had a clear lead in and he’s at 270.

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