2:00PM Water Cooler 7/22/2024

By Lambert Strether of Corrente

There will be plenty more about the exciting events in the Democrat Party. –lambert

Bird Song of the Day

Northern Mockingbird, Rocky Rill Farm; Farmyard, Whitfield, Georgia, United States. A reader asked for mockingbirds; here’s six minutes-worth!

* * *

In Case You Might Miss…

(1) Many new Covid charts, emergency department visits being especially disconcerting.

(2) Biden’s defenestration.

(3) Harris: Let the oppo begin!

(4) What if we stop reading?

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Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

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2024

Less than four months to go!

Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:

Virginia and North Carolina added to the list. NC was never going for Biden, but Virginia? Yikes!

* * *

Unelecting Biden:

Events, dear boy, events.” —Harold MacMillan (apocryphal)

Patient readers: “Events” are moving too fast for me to rise above them with generalizations, and therefore I’m going to throw my timely gleanings into buckets with which you are already familiar. But it’s worth noting that our patient examination of events has yielded at least two results: The term “circle“*, and the idea of the “Inner Party,” which is a FlexNet (stigmatized here as the “Wretched Hive” of scum and villainy). Neither type of entity, you will have noticed, is small-d “democratic” to the slightest degree. I’m still long volatility. NOTE * We can now ask, for example, what Kamala’s circle is, and how it differs from Biden’s.

* * *

Covid

“White House lifting its COVID-19 testing rule for people around Biden” [PBS]. March 4, 2004: “The White House on Monday lifted its COVID-19 testing requirement for those who plan to be in close contact with President Joe Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris and their spouses, bringing to an end the last coronavirus prevention protocol at the White House. The White House said the change aligns its policies with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidance.” • Life’s little ironies, eh? You also have to wonder who many people Biden infected:

we are in a surge and you literally have Covid right now and aren’t masking or contact tracing.

You let hundreds of thousands of people die and still have never tweeted the phrase Long Covid, even though millions have it.

You don’t get to pretend you succeeded at Covid. https://t.co/m3XWZHKQO7

— Mr. Madam Adam (@MisterMadamAdam) July 20, 2024

As NC readers know, when Biden says Trump “told us to inject bleach” he’s lying.

Biden Circle

Similar narratives:

“Why Biden finally quit” [Politico]. Same narrative as below. “Early Saturday, Biden told senior aides it was “full steam ahead” for the campaign. But by later that evening, he had changed his mind following a long discussion with his two closest aides [Steve Ricchetti and Mike Donilon]…. [T]hey carried the campaign’s own polls, which came back this week and showed his path to victory in November was gone, according to five people familiar with the matter…. When the campaign commissioned new battleground polling over the last week, it was the first time they had done surveys in some key states in more than two months [What? This year?], according to two people familiar with the surveys. And the numbers were grim, showing Biden not just trailing in all six critical swing states but collapsing in places like Virginia and New Mexico where Democrats had not planned on needing to spend massive resources to win.” • I’m a little amazed that Swing State polling could come as a surprise to a campaign with a competent staff. Then again. this is the staff that exposed Biden to Covid (and allowed him to expose others). Makes you wonder if Biden’s the only one with cognitive issues (see “Personal Risk Assessment” in the Covid section).

“Inside Biden’s unprecedented exit from the presidential race” [CNN]. “Biden’s final decision to leave the race was reached in the last 48 hours, a senior campaign adviser said, as he consulted family and top advisers by telephone while recovering from Covid. A source familiar with the matter said the plans to exit the race began Saturday night and were finalized Sunday. The adviser said the president ‘was not dug in’ but was studying the data coming in and became convinced he would ‘weigh down’ the ticket and be a complication to defeating Trump. Biden’s decision did not have to do with any medical issues, a senior White House official told CNN.” We are now revising the narrative to eliminate both Covid and Biden’s cognitive difficulties. “It was the polling!” And indeed, that was part of the picture, but not all of it. More: “When Biden huddled with his two closest advisers Saturday, the information they provided on polling and where top Democratic officials stood underscored that a path to victory was ‘basically nonexistent,’ according to another person familiar with the matter. There wasn’t any single poll number, wavering Democratic official or fundraiser presented in the meeting with longtime aides Mike Donilon and Steve Ricchetti that pushed Biden toward his decision, the person said. Instead, the information highlighted that the path back to a viable campaign had been severely damaged by declining national and swing-state poll numbers, along with party defections that were likely to rapidly accelerate. The information included polling and details gathered from outreach outside Biden’s inner circle.” • But see the concept of “buzz“; sometimes the spontaneous gets a little help.

“Inside Biden’s historic decision to drop out of the 2024 race” [NBC]. “The account of this critical weekend, and what led to Biden’s stunning announcement, came from interviews with two dozen Democrats familiar with what transpired…. In separate phone calls Sunday, Biden told his vice president, Kamala Harris, his White House chief of staff, Jeff Zients, and his campaign chair, Jen O’Malley Dillon, that he would abandon his re-election bid. The fact that he had to inform them in such a manner underscored the degree to which his circle had tightened in recent days to family members and a few longtime aides and advisers — Mike Donilon, Steve Ricchetti, Anthony Bernal and Annie Tomasini. The outcome may not have surprised White House and campaign officials, but the timing did. Most found out, along with the rest of the world, when Biden published his post on X. The same was true for Democratic National Committee officials and state party chairs. Senior Biden aides scrambled to set up separate meetings to talk to staff members for the White House and the campaign, reassuring the political aides that their jobs were safe.” • The staff finds out from X. Nice!

“Biden drops out of 2024 race after disastrous debate inflamed age concerns. VP Harris gets his nod” [Associated Press]. “Harris, in a statement, praised Biden’s ‘selfless and patriotic act’ and said she intends to ‘earn and win’ her party’s nomination.” • That would certainly be a first for her.

The Inner Party

“It was not undemocratic for the Democrats to dump Joe Biden” [VOX]. “What’s unfolded in the two weeks since has been a steadily intensifying pressure campaign from various members of the press, pundits, donors, and current and former elected officials aimed at making Biden quit. Some of these entreaties were made in private — and, when Biden didn’t appear to be listening, more spilled out [note lack of agency] into public view. They argued that he couldn’t win and, eventually, he listened. There may arguably be something a bit uncomfortable about the role of Democratic power brokers and donors in pushing Biden aside after his primary win. But while they’re doing this without voters’ explicit say, they’re doing so in an attempt to (belatedly) respond to voters’ beliefs that Biden is too old to serve another term.” • I am not sure of the timing on this. First, that “(belatedly”) is doing more work than a mere adverb should ever be called upon to do; these are all party professionals, how the heck did the problem sneak by them? Second, the Democrats have now managed to place a candidate on the top of the ticket who has never won a single Presidential primary in her life; this is remarkable, but how can it possibly be characterized as “democratic”? The only time Harris faced the voters, they rejected her! In her home state! And here we are. Third, considering how the Inner Party nobbled Sanders in 2016 and 2020, I’d say they have form, and the Party cannot be fairly characterized as democratic at all. Finally, putting on my tinfoil hat, the special model that works from 30,000 feet, this entire operation has the stench of a bait and switch. How far back did the planning go?

The DNC

“Replacing Biden: What happens now?” [Semafor]. “Only Harris, whose name is on the campaign’s organizing documents, would inherit the current Biden campaign and its resources. If the delegates rejected her, the Biden-Harris war chest could be donated to the DNC or a super PAC.”

“What’s next for Democrats, delegates to replace Biden on the ticket” [Axios]. “There is no formal rule-based structure that transfers delegates from one candidate to another ahead of the Democratic National Convention, which starts Aug. 19. The Democratic National Convention’s rules committee will hold a meeting to discuss implementing a framework to select a presidential nominee in a meeting to be broadcast live on the DNC’s YouTube page from 2pm Wednesday ET, per multiple reports. While Harris is probably in the best position to become the Democratic nominee in the view of party officials and strategists, it’s not guaranteed. That’s in part because Biden did not resign from the presidency, which would have made Harris the first woman president of the U.S. and vaulted her to the top of the ticket. ‘We’re just in uncharted territory here and a lot of this stuff hasn’t been tested, certainly not in the modern era of presidential nomination,; Josh Putnam, a political consultant specializing in delegate selection rules and presidential campaigns, told Axios.”

Electeds

“Some key battleground Dems conspicuously quiet about Kamala Harris on Sunday” [Politico]. “Most of the Democratic challengers running for competitive seats across the country had glaring omissions in their statements Sunday about President Joe Biden bowing out of the race. They didn’t mention Vice President Kamala Harris. It was an eyebrow-raising contrast to the dozens of House and Senate Democratic incumbents who immediately came out in support of Harris as their party’s nominee. And it was even more noticeable in the blue states of New York and California, which hold a slew of districts where voters chose Biden in 2020 but have supported GOP candidates down the ballot since. A flood of support for Harris could still come, and few Democrats called for a contested convention or backed any other candidate. But as their safe-seat counterparts put out statements Sunday, swing-seat Democrats faced a tougher calculus. Some of them, like Sens. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) and Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) and Rep. Susan Wild (D-Pa.), got to yes on Harris. Others, especially challengers to Republican incumbents, stayed silent.

Their hesitation speaks to the politically murky situation as Harris coalesces support.” • Hmm.

Clyburn endorses Harris:

My statement on President Biden. pic.twitter.com/xEq1tsQhAl

— Jim Clyburn (@ClyburnSC06) July 21, 2024

Donors

“How the Bet on an 81-Year-Old Joe Biden Turned Into an Epic Miscalculation” [Wall Street Journal]. A long catalog of incidents. This is the first one: “President Biden had just finished trying to persuade a group of congressional Democrats to pass a $1 trillion infrastructure bill when Nancy Pelosi, then the House speaker, took the microphone. In 30 minutes of remarks on Capitol Hill, Biden had spoken disjointedly and failed to make a concrete ask of lawmakers, according to Democrats in the room. After he left, a visibly frustrated Pelosi told the group she would articulate what Biden had been trying to say, one lawmaker said. ‘It was the first time I remember people pretty jarred by what they had seen,’ recalled Rep. Dean Phillips (D., Minn.), who would go on to mount an unsuccessful primary challenge against the president. That was October 2021. That month was the last time Biden met with the House Democratic caucus on the Hill regarding legislation.” • I remember posting about Biden being helped down an extremely short flight of steos by a staffer, and then being pointed in the right direction in the Iowa primary, 2019. I have no patience with the “We were lied to!” crowd. Anybody who says that wasn’t doing due diligence, and it won’t be the first time NC readers knew more than squillionaire donors. One donor: “One longtime donor recalled that on the last three occasions he saw the president, Biden had repeatedly lost his train of thought and interrupted his sentence with ‘whatever.’ The donor didn’t think much of it at the time. ‘I was probably rationalizing,’ he said. ‘Subconsciously, you’re like—OK, I don’t think I can deal with this reality. What choice do I have? Nobody else is running.'” Of course, another takeaway is that a reasonably heuristic for dealing with any Democrat operative is that they’re lying, but then you knew that. Why in the name of all that is holy didn’t the donrs?

The Spooks

Lambert here: The spooks are silent. Kamala was on the Senate Intelligence Committee. What does that tell you?

The Press

“Editorial: Biden’s decision not to seek nomination was courageous” [Los Angeles Times]. “In announcing Sunday that he is abandoning his candidacy for reelection, President Biden admirably put his party and the country above his personal interests. That he was responding to an increasing chorus from within the party doesn’t make his decision any less statesmanlike. His willingness to step aside, and the respectful calls for him to do so from other Democrats, amount to a striking contrast to the Republican Party, which has a cult-like focus on the supposed indispensability of Donald Trump.” • Crap Material like this is all over my Twitter feed like kudzu. Everybody who stuck a shiv in Biden’s back is now professing admiration for him in the most fulsome terms. They all turned on a dime! Together! First, if indeed it was “time to take away the car keys” from Biden, it’s not clear that his decision was “ccurageous” at all, because we can’t be sure of his mental capacity. Second, note the contrast between Democrats and Republicans: Biden’s defenestration by Democrats courageous decision was entirely a case of the Inner Party putting pressure on his circle by leaks in the press; totally top down. By contrast, say what you like about Trump, but his ascendancy in the Republican party was bottom up, i.e. small-d democratic. Republican voters weren’t having Jeb!, or Haley, or any RINO, and they kept banging on their party apparatus until it did (in their terms) the right thing.

“With Biden stepping aside, Democrats must now embrace an open process” [WaPo]. “An open process for picking Mr. Biden’s replacement as Democratic nominee, as well as that person’s running mate, risks becoming messy. It could draw attention to Democratic quarrels over issues that divide Democrats such as Mr. Biden’s policy in the Middle East. The Democratic convention was already shaping up to be contentious before Mr. Biden’s exit, with the possibility of large protests outside the venue. Yet Mr. Biden’s decision creates an opportunity for a reset, not only for his party but also for U.S. politics generally, through a competitive nomination process among future national leaders. Barack Obama was a stronger candidate in 2008, and maybe even a better president, because Hillary Clinton competed so fiercely with him during a marathon primary season. Though this sort of vetting process isn’t replicable, there is time for Democrats to scrutinize the contenders for top of the ticket. The logistics of a compressed nominating contest would not necessarily be hard. France just held snap elections without a hitch. All the delegates and superdelegates are already selected and set to convene in Chicago. Democrats would not even have to schedule primaries: Debates among the top contenders would do.”

The Campaign Trail:

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Harris (D): From the archives:

Am I the only one who remembers the time Kamala Harris’s father upbraided her in public? pic.twitter.com/JuBY6a263v

— Alice (@AliceFromQueens) July 22, 2024

I certainly do. And so it begins–

Harris (D): “Scandal behind the cackle! As Kamala’s former lover – who’s 31 YEARS her senior – demands Biden make her president NOW… all the sordid secrets America’s ‘Momala’ hopes you’ve forgotten” [Daily Mail]. I wouldn’t expect this to be slow in crossing The Pond. “In 1994, Harris was a 29-year-old rising star in the Alameda County District Attorney’s Office when she struck up a relationship with Brown – the 60-year-old speaker of the state Assembly and one of the most powerful men in California…. In a 2019 op-ed for the San Francisco Chronicle, [Brown] wrote: ‘Sure, I dated Kamala Harris. So what?’ conceding that he ‘certainly helped with her first race for district attorney in San Francisco,’ but that he also assisted other prominent California Democrats.” Weak oppo. The key point (from WikiPedia (!)): “In 1994, Speaker of the California Assembly Willie Brown, who was then dating Harris, appointed her to the state Unemployment Insurance Appeals Board and later to the California Medical Assistance Commission.” It’s one thing to have a girlfiend; it’s quite another to arrange for her to be take a State salary. And apparently, Willie Brown is still at it: “Speaking outside John’s Grill, where he holds court with the city’s political elite, just moments after President Joe Biden’s surprise announcement that he’d immediately suspended his campaign, Brown put forward a bold idea. “Not only should Joe stand aside as a candidate, he said, but Biden should also resign as President, allowing Harris to take up the role. ‘[Harris’s] chances go up if [Biden] would at this moment say not only am I no longer the candidate, I’m no longer the president — she is,’ Brown said. Sounding more like a doting teacher than a past lover, he heaped praise on Harris, telling The San Francisco Chronicle: ‘In all the jobs she’s had… she’s always been outstanding.’ It’s a sharp change of tune from Brown, who advised Harris in 2020 to turn down Biden’s invitation to be his running mate, telling her the second seat was a ‘dead end’. Brown’s about-face is in line with a general shift in the Democratic party – as left-wing [sic] political operators and a sympathetic media rush to rehabilitate Harris’s image in the hopes that she can take on and beat former President Donald Trump.”

* * *

“Expect some GOP legal challenges to taking Biden off the ballot. But they’re longshots.” [Politico]. “Don’t believe the hype: Republicans are unlikely to gain traction in legal efforts to prevent Democrats from taking President Joe Biden off the ballot. No state will have printed ballots prior to the Democratic National Convention, and the nominee chosen by the party at or in the run up to the convention was always slated to be the person who appears on the ballot in each state.” • Of course, this is American, so anybody can be sued about anything.

* * *

IL: “Biden’s decision changes the calculus for 2028 hopefuls” [Politico]. “[Governor JB Pritzker of Illinois] has been working behind the scenes for years preparing for a future presidential run. His political team is made up of veterans from two past political campaigns for governor, including the seasoned campaign manager Anne Caprara. The question is whether running for president risks Pritzker, who co-chaired Hillary Clinton’s campaign in 2008, being seen as pushing out a woman — and a woman of color — in what would be a historic candidacy. Unlike other potential presidential candidates, Pritzker is a billionaire who can self-fund a campaign and wouldn’t need Biden’s campaign funds to move forward. He can write a check and build infrastructure in every state and get on TV tomorrow, according to Illinois campaign veterans who were granted anonymity to speak freely about a sensitive subject.” • And best of all, he didn’t date Willie Brown! That we know of, at least.

MI: “Gov. Whitmer endorses Kamala Harris for president, says she’s not leaving Michigan” [Detroit News]. “Asked Monday morning if she was interested in being vice president, Whitmer said: ‘I am not leaving Michigan. I am proud to be the governor of Michigan. I have been consistent. I know everyone is always suspicious and asking this question over and over again … I am not going anywhere.’ Whitmer announced her support for Harris a day after Democratic President Joe Biden revealed that he was dropping his reelection bid, 107 days before the general election on Nov. 5. Whitmer, whom many Democrats see as a potential future candidate for president, had been a co-chairwoman of Biden’s campaign and had repeatedly touted her belief in the 81-year-old Biden as others called for him to get out of the race.” • Eight years of Kamala means the blight of the Democrat bench continues. If the Democrats can win the House or the Senate, ideally both, with Biden off the top of the ticket, it might suit a lot of ambitious electeds if Kamala didn’t make it.

PA: “Pennsylvania Democrats give mixed response to idea of Harris as nominee” [Washington Examiner]. “Pennsylvania is arguably the most important swing state in the country. But while gushing endorsements for Harris came from the likes of Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Rep. Pramila Jayapal of Washington State, chairwoman of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, Pennsylvania party leaders sang a different tune…. Sen. John Fetterman, a fearless supporter of the current president, said he was unimpressed with the members of his own party who pushed Biden out, who then praised him extravagantly only after he withdrew. ‘Spare me the soaring accolades from people with their fingerprints on the blades in our President’s back,’ he said…. One longtime Democratic voter, a union Democrat who has never voted Republican, said he felt, ‘Harris wasn’t up for the job, I hope it will be someone else, I don’t like how they pushed Joe out.’ … .While elected Democrats, including Democrat Gov. Josh Shapiro, spent the day sending out full support for Harris, Democrats here in Pennsylvania worry about her appeal in the state, especially in Western Pennsylvania where hydraulic fracking has been an economic game changer—something Harris adamantly opposes…. On the politics of the Keystone State, political science professor Jeff Brauer said Pennsylvania remains essential to a presidential victory of either party. ‘Biden has always had close ties to Pennsylvania, especially with his hometown of Scranton and First Lady Jill Biden considering herself a Philadelphian,’ he said, adding, ‘without Biden on the ticket, the chances for Democrats in this all-critical state certainly diminish.’ Brauer said if Harris is chosen, this state is in flux for Democrats, more so than it was before the debate and the assassination attempt on Trump here, ‘Many in Pennsylvania, which is generally a moderate state, will find her to be too liberal,’ he said. Which means undoubtedly, her vice-presidential pick then will become very important electorally, and he points to Shapiro as an excellent selection in this regard.” • See The New Arab, “Who is Josh Shapiro, the ‘pro-Israel’ frontrunner tipped to be Kamala Harris’ running mate?” and Spotlight PA, “Shapiro orders state employees to avoid ‘scandalous’ conduct amid Gaza protests, raising free speech concerns.” However, with Shapiro, the Democrats may trade a better chance in PA for worse chances in MI and MN. And they need all three.

Realignment and Legitimacy

“‘I’m not voting’: Why should Donald Trump, Kamala Harris or anyone else make a difference to my finances? I’ll never be able to retire and I’m always broke.” [MarketWatch]. Question: “Dear Quentin, I don’t care. I think they are all the same. My life has been a struggle for the last 10 years and it has made no difference who is president of this country: Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris or whoever ends up taking over the Democratic ticket for president. What does it matter to someone like me? I’ll never be able to retire. A brief summary: I am in my 50s and still renting. I cannot afford to buy a house and I never have any money at the end of the month. I earn $67,000 a year, a decent salary by most standards, but it doesn’t go far. I dread getting older as I will need to keep working. America is divided between red and blue, but I’m tired of all the game playing and point scoring. Just sharing my thoughts about why I’m not voting. You read that correctly: I won’t be going to the polling booth in November. –Fed Up in Virginia (and Fed Up with D.C.). Lengthy answer, concluding: “Dear Virginian…. It’s not good to feel you will never be able to afford to retire. But remember: Social Security was signed into law by President Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1935. Whether you are a Republican, Democrat or Independent, go to the ballot box on Nov. 5, and let your voice be heard.”

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

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Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

* * *

Transmission: Covid

“Age-specific nasal epithelial responses to SARS-CoV-2 infection” [Nature]. From the Discussion: “In summary, we have shown that SARS-CoV-2 shows age-specific tropism in nasal epithelial cells, targeting goblet cells in children and secretory cells in older adults. Paediatric cells exhibit a strong antiviral response, resulting in limited viral replication. Older adult cells undergo shedding and more epithelial damage. Altered repair pathways and an increase in basaloid-like 2 cells associated with fibrosis markers contribute to greater viral spread in older adults. These findings provide insights into age-related COVID-19 pathogenesis and demonstrate how impaired repair processes enhance SARS-CoV-2 infection in older individuals.”

Personal RIsk Assessment

Personal risk assessment… is other people:

* * *

Lambert here: Looks like the holiday travel dumped accelerant on the pre-existing surge; see especially the growth in wastewater “hot spots.” Stay safe out there!

TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

Wastewater
★ This week[1] CDC July 15:	Last Week[2] CDC July 8 (until next week):
Variants★ [3] CDC July 20	★ Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC July 13
Hospitalization
★ New York[5] New York State, data July 19:	★ National [6] CDC June 29:
Positivity
★ National[7] Walgreens July 22:	Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic July 13:
Travelers Data
★ Positivity[9] CDC July 1:	★ Variants[10] CDC July 1:
Deaths
Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11]CDC July 6:	Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12]CDC July 6:

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, with hot spots annotated. Keeps spreading.

[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* very popular.

[4] (ER) Worth noting Emergency Department use is now on a par with the first wave, in 2020.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Keeps up steady increase. (The New York city area has form; in 2020, as the home of two international airports (JFK and EWR) it was an important entry point for the virus into the country (and from thence up the Hudson River valley, as the rich sought to escape, and then around the country through air travel.)

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). The visualization suppresses what is, in percentage terms, a significant increase.

[7] (Walgreens) An optimist would see a peak.

[8] (Cleveland) Still going up!

[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Up. Those sh*theads at CDC have changed the chart so that it doesn’t even run back to 1/21/23, as it used to, but now starts 1/1/24. There’s also no way to adjust the time rasnge. CDC really doesn’t want you to be able to take a historical view of the pandemic, or compare one surge to another. In an any case, that’s why the shape of the curve has changed.

[10] (Travelers: Variants) Same deal. Those sh*theads.

[11] Deaths low, but positivity up.

[12] Deaths low, ED up.

Stats Watch

There are no official statistics of interest today.

* * *

Tech: “The serious science of trolling LLMs” [lcamtuf’s thing]. “We were talking about trolling large language models — that is, the practice of fiddling with the prompt to get the machine to say something outrageous or nonsensical, and then publicly displaying the result to earn retweets and likes… [B]ecause the models’ internals are inscrutable, the proxy measurement we rely on is the extent to which the models appear human-like. An LLM stuck in the uncanny valley is bound to scare the customers away. Responding to this incentive, vendors engage in sleight-of-hand. The models are made to appear more human by forcing them to feign emotions, profusely apologize for mistakes, or even respond with scripted jokes that mask the LLMs’ inability to write anything resembling humor…. The vendors’ hope is that with time, we will reach full human-LLM parity; and until then, it’s OK to fudge it a bit. From this perspective, the viral examples that make it patently clear that the models don’t reason like humans are not just PR annoyances; they are a threat to product strategy. Far from being a waste of time, internet trolling is becoming a legitimate scientific pursuit. When a model aces a human benchmark, it’s hard to know how much of this can be credited to reasoning and how much of it boils down to recall from the training data set. It’s when it fails at a simple task that we know what the limitations are — and trolls are the torch-bearers of this new englightenment.”

Manufacturing: “Boeing is offering a stark and expensive example of how supply-chain shortfalls can trigger cascading problems across a company’s operations” “[Logistics Report, Wall Street Journal]. “Parts shortages and other issues have left the jet maker facing a major storage issue, with about 200 fully or mostly finished airplanes sitting in airfields, outside plants and—in one location—an employee parking lot. The WSJ’s Sharon Terlep reports that supplier shortages have saddled the company with planes short of parts such as seats and emergency doors. But a handful of 777 freighters in Everett, Wash., are awaiting engines because manufacturer GE Aerospace has struggled with shortfalls from its own suppliers. Boeing had delivered only two freighters this year through May. But the engines have started rolling in, and Boeing delivered five of the planes in June. The bigger problem is with passenger jets including some single-aisle 737 MAXs that are now several years old.”

* * *

Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 53 Neutral (previous close: 49 Neutral) [CNN]. One week ago: 63 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Jul 22 at 12:14:59 PM ET.

Rapture Index: Closes down one on Floods. “It has been dry in many parts of the US” [Rapture Ready]. Record High, October 10, 2016: 189. Current: 184. (Remember that bringing on the Rapture is good.) • Hard to believe the Rapture Index is going down. Where are there people getting their news?!

Poetry Nook

“Homage to John Donne” [Michael Smith, Crying in the Wilderness]. “Spirit we are but yet embodied too….”

The Gallery

Add an element of horror to the brushwork, and I’m reminded of Francis Bacon!

Tennis Game by the Sea https://t.co/1e0tzvLMk4 pic.twitter.com/KoeyJj1r8R

— Edouard Vuillard (@edouardvuillard) June 15, 2024

Zeitgeist Watch

What happens to Western Civilization if nobody can read?

For lit classes, I require PAPER TEXTS. I email students ahead of the semester and explain this so they are not horrified on day 1. They can opt out and use e-texts if they come to me with a reason (disability etc)–but they have to provide a reason. (I never say no)

— Alden Jones (@aldenejones) July 20, 2024

This is a long thread; click through for a complete image (especially if you are a teacher).

Class Warfare

“No One Expects Young Men To Do Anything and They Are Responding By Doing Nothing” [Rob Henderson’s Newsletter]. Hmm:

If you come from poverty and chaos, you are up against 3 enemies:

1. Dysfunction and deprivation

2. Yourself, as a result of what that environment does to you

3. The upper class, who wants to keep you mired in it.

The people with the most money and education—the class most responsible for shaping politics and culture and customs—ensure that their children are raised in stable homes.

But actively undermine the norm for everyone else.

The educated class decides cohabiting partnerships are just as valid and important as marriage. And they also believe it’s okay to walk away at a moment’s notice from a cohabiting relationship.

Luxury beliefs are ideas and opinions that confer status on the upper class while often inflicting costs on the lower classes.

“Actively undermining norms” reminds me of what our ruling class has done to public health.

News of the Wired

I am not yet completely wired.

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Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From SC:

SC writes: “Bee foraging at a Milkweed plant of questionable parentage.”

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