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2:00PM Water Cooler 7/30/2024

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By Lambert Strether of Corrente

Patient readers, I feel I’ve been neglecting Covid in favor of electoral politics (“the tyranny of the urgent”). I will add more political news in short order. –lambert

Bird Song of the Day

Blue Mockingbird, Calle Lirios Bosque, Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco, Mexico. “Lifer!”

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In Case You Might Miss…

(1) Democrat idipol.

(3) Covid at the Olympics.

(2) Amazon a distributor, now responsible for recalls.

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Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

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2024

Less than one hundred days to go!

Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:

First poll with Harris at the top of the Democrat ticket; Trump’s position deteriorates (and any advantage he gained from the assassination attempt has been wiped away. Nevertheless, he still leads, albeit within the margin of error. NOTE RCP used to have two pages of swing states; I always used the first one. Now there is only one, which I take as an indicator that Harris v. Trump polling is not all that widespread.

Vibe shift:

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* * *

The Campaign Trail:

Kamala (D): “Identity Groups Are Mobilizing for Kamala Harris. That Shows Progress” [Time]. “This enthusiasm is significant as Harris heads into the final months of the campaign, but given that American culture discourages this kind of “identity politics,” many people will see this list of identity-specific calls and think, “If you want to support Harris, do it, but why all this separation?” Why gather in specific groups?… However, it is equally encouraging to see white women and white men organize as white women and white men. Despite all the ways American culture teaches them that whiteness hasn’t determined their life chances, and in stark contrast to the way white women, primarily, congregated in a “secret” Facebook group before the 2016 election, these Harris supporters are insisting upon publicly acknowledging the specificity of experience. Doing so doesn’t automatically erect barriers between them and people of color. Instead, it facilitates an honoring of differences that makes those differences strengths.” • Of course, plenty of “Not that way!” when identity groups do it wrong; the Azovs, for example. The pecking order as expressed in the rollout timing is interesting: First, Black Women. Second, White Women. Third, White Men. Fourth, Latino Men:

On the bright said, the organizers didn’t use “Latinx.” I suppose the Asian verticals are yet come. NOTE “[As activist author Audre Lorde explained decades ago] urged Americans to become more practiced in ‘relating across our human differences as equals’ so that what distinguishes us from each other would cease to be ‘misnamed and misused in the service of separation and confusion.'” When 90% of humanity has to sell their labor power to survive, 1% buys it, and 10% helps the 1% get that done, “relating across our human differences as equals” isn’t possible; the material differences cannot be erased by wishful thinking. Ya know, it’s almost like the identity verticals were like…. were like a…. were like a bundle of sticks, only strong when bound together….

Kamala (D): “Kamala Harris says she has ‘not yet’ chosen her running mate – live” [Guardian]. • This is the stupidest timeline, so I imagine if Raimondo were male they’d be the pick. Ditto Buttigieg modulo gender. Shapiro is also stupid, because winning PA to lose the Muslims in the Upper Midwest is stupid. Walz would not be stupid, so it won’t be Walz. Maybe surprises are in store! How about John Podesta?

Kamala (D): “Commentary: Kamala Harris is being called ‘brat’. What the sigma?” [Channel News Asia]. “[“Brat” song author] Charli said that ‘brat’ means ‘that girl who is a little messy and likes to party … maybe says dumb things sometimes … who feels herself but maybe also has a breakdown but parties through it … is very honest, very blunt, a little bit volatile.’ The Guardian provides an explainer: ‘Brat is not just a name, but a lifestyle, one inspired by noughties excess and rave culture.’… As far as I know, Harris has not used the word “brat” in any of her speeches, because that would have been “cringey”. Instead, she has let Gen Z do its thing, while she has focused on using plain English to promote her policies and to take down Trump.” • Interesting stuff on slang, though probably obsolete, the youth move so fast: “Rizz” for “charisma.”

Kamala (D): “‘Fearless’ or ‘failed?’ Kamala Harris launches TV ad to define her record and so does Trump” [USA Today]. “A 60-second ad from the Harris campaign introduces Harris to a broader electorate by saying, “The one thing Kamala Harris has always been: fearless.” The ad traces her career as a prosecutor “putting murders and abusers behind bars,” as California attorney general going after “the big banks” and as vice president going after “the big drug companies.'” • Here it is:

Very much in tune with Democrat loyalist @drvox’s call for “dominance play,” described at NC here.

Kamala (D): “Why the Kamala Harris of Four Years Ago Could Haunt Her in 2024” [New York Times]. Oh noes! “‘The archive is deep,’ said Brad Todd, a Republican strategist and ad maker who is working with David McCormick, the G.O.P. Senate candidate in Pennsylvania, among other campaigns. ‘We will run out of time before we run out of video clips of Kamala Harris saying wacky California liberal things. I’m just not sure that the rest of this campaign includes much besides that.’ But wait! There’s hope! More: “Matt Bennett, a co-founder of Third Way, a moderate Democratic think tank, said he was not worried that Ms. Harris had once espoused left-wing ideas. She has evolved, he said, into a Biden-style Democrat with more centrist views.” • Let’s do a little oppo of our own. It’s not hard–

Kamala (D): “Kamala Harris Didn’t Just Flip-Flop on Medicare for All” [Eric Levitz, New York Magazine]. Kamala was a co-sponsor of Sanders’ single payer bill. “[O]n Monday night, Harris went on national television and called for the abolition of the private insurance industry…. ‘Who of us has not had that situation, where you’ve got to wait for approval (for medical care) and the doctor says, well, I don’t know if your insurance company is going to cover this?’ she asked. ‘Let’s eliminate all of that. Let’s move on.'” You’ll never guess what happened next! More: “One day — and much billionaire hand-wringing later — CNN published a story titled, ‘Kamala Harris is open to multiple paths to ‘Medicare-for-all.’‘ This headline briefly put the universe back in order. Harris’s equivocation was belated but inevitable. She wasn’t going to run as an unusually forthright and unapologetic advocate of single-payer. After all, the elimination of private insurance isn’t merely opposed by powerful corporate lobbies, but by a large majority of Americans in the Kaiser Family Foundation’s polling. This is not a position a savvy operator like Harris would wish to champion. From here on out, the senator would say the three magic words (Medicare for All) but avoid defining them whenever possible.” • “Fearless,” my sweet Aunt Fanny. (The normal level-headed Levitz urges that Kamala’s “multiple paths” language is not a flip-flop. As a long, long-time single payer advocate, I’m here to tell you that’s exactly what it is. When language like “I’m for cake” turns into “I’m for cake, but also for cookies. Anything sweet, really” that’s a flip-flop.

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Trump (R): “Inside JD Vance’s Short-Lived Career as a Venture Capitalist” [Wall Street Journal]. “In 2016, [Vance] left the biotech firm to join [Peter Thiel’s] Mithril as a junior investor. Vance’s memoir was published that summer and became a bestseller with its unrelenting portrayal of poverty in working-class America. In the year Vance worked at Mithril, a former colleague said he never once saw him in the office. Another colleague said he remembers seeing Vance at the office, although he did travel a lot to promote his memoir. Neither remembered significant deals that Vance drove during his time at Mithril. In March 2017, Vance left Mithril to join Revolution, an investment firm founded by Steve Case, a co-founder of AOL. Vance was hired to focus on the Rise of the Rest initiative, a seed fund within Revolution that looked for investing opportunities outside the typical tech ecosystems of Silicon Valley, New York and Boston. He joined Case for several stops on a bus tour through cities like Chattanooga, Tenn., and Louisville, Ky. During Vance’s time at Revolution, he was the lead partner or co-lead on 14 deals, according to a person familiar with the deals. They included California-based defense tech startup Anduril Industries, North Carolina-based artificial-intelligence startup Pryon, as well as AppHarvest. Vance joined Pryon’s board in June 2019. Pryon’s chief executive, Igor Jablokov, said Vance was an engaged investor who helped the company forge connections with venture capitalist Jim Breyer and Chase Koch, the son of billionaire libertarian tycoon Charles Koch.” • Hmm. Quite the networker.

Trump (R): Stoller comments on Trump’s recent lack of mojo:

In a way, Trump 2016 vs. Trump 2024 reminds me of Sanders 2016 vs. Sanders 2020. In each case, the populist and very popular message in the first campaign, was diluted by the ideological commitments of staff (whether idpol for Sanders, or a barnacle-like encrustration of right-wing tropes for Trump). Stoller points to Bannon’s disappearance — the Democrats jailed him, a successful example of lawfare — but I’m not so sure; it’s no surprise that Trump jetting round the country in his own airplane doing A/B testing with the crowds was more in touch with voters than Trump subjected to the wiles of Susie Wiles (a professional, in the good and the bad senses of the word).

Trump (R): “Behind the Curtain: The battle for Trump power” [Axios]. “The two biggest changes in staffing since the first term are the increased power of populists compared to Trump’s original West Wing, which included such establishment powers as former Goldman Sachs exec Gary Cohn. You could see this dynamic in the sway Don Jr. and Tucker Carlson had in pushing Vance over the finish line for V.P. It’s not a coincidence that Don Jr. wants to screen top officials for loyalty. Second, Trump realizes he has to staff further down in the agencies and departments if he’s going to work his full will. This is all contingent on actually winning a second term, and some Republicans think the Trump team is acting too over-confident. But Trump insiders realize that the more prepared they are for a transition, the more power can stay concentrated with Trump loyalists — and the less would go to outsiders.”

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“Marianne Williamson Ends Longshot 2024 Presidential Bid” [Bloomberg]. “Marianne Williamson said she failed to meet the deadline to challenge Vice President Kamala Harris for the Democratic nomination, effectively ending her longshot bid. ‘We did everything possible to stand for a blitz primary, an open convention and so forth. Yet the way things worked there truly was no way, and all we could have done is create noise,’ Williamson said Monday in a post on X. Williamson did not register her intention to run with the Democratic National Committee by Saturday evening, which would have pitted her against Harris. The vice president last week became the party’s likely nominee after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race and the party quickly coalesced around her. Williamson did not endorse Harris, but said she believes it is an “urgent task” to make sure Republican nominee Donald Trump does not return to power.” • Too bad.

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Spook Country

“U.S. intelligence official: Russia and Iran likely seeking to influence election outcome” [NBC]. “The U.S. intelligence community believes the Kremlin will direct its propaganda efforts to support former President Donald Trump over Vice President Kamala Harris in the presidential election, an intelligence official indicated on a media call Monday. Iran is likely to continue to try to denigrate Trump, the official said, and China doesn’t appear to have a preference in the presidential race but may try to interfere in congressional races. The call, held by the Foreign Malign Influence Center, one of the few arms of the U.S. government devoted to countering foreign propaganda campaigns, elaborated on an agency alert about foreign propaganda campaigns released Monday afternoon.” • Oh, an “intelligence official.” I confess I’ve never heard of the “Foreign Malign Influence Center” (great name). Spun up in 2022. The leadership: “Before leading FMIC, Jessica [Brandt] was policy director for the Artificial Intelligence and Emerging Technology Initiative at the Brookings Institution and a fellow in the Foreign Policy program’s Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology. Her research interests and publications focused on foreign interference, digital authoritarianism, and the implications of emerging technologies for liberal democracies, according to the FMIC site, which has some interesting omissions: “Jessica Brandt was head of policy and research for the Alliance for Securing Democracy [ASD] and a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund [GMF] of the United States…. Jessica is a member of the Advisory Council of the American Ditchley Foundation and a David Rockefeller Fellow of the Trilateral Commission. She was a term member of the Council on Foreign Relations and a Next Generation Fellow at the Center for a New American Security.” • I haven’t heard the Trilateral Commission mentioned in a dog’s age! The ASD and the GMF were responsible for the ridiculous Hamilton68 dashboard (an early part of the Censorship Industrial Complex, demolished by Taibbi). So both FMIC and Brandt are perfect, and I think we can expect to hear more from them.

Republican Funhouse

“How the crypto industry is buying political support with 202 million U.S. dollars” [Judd Legum, Popular Information]. “15 years after Bitcoin was created, there are still few legitimate use cases. Today, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are primarily used for financial speculation and to facilitate organized crime. The broader crypto industry, meanwhile, has been rocked by scandals, including the spectacular implosion of FTX and criminal charges against Binance. But crypto lobbyists still have one ace up their sleeves: lots of money. The industry’s primary Super PAC, Fairshake, has raised over $202 million in the 2024 election cycle. Most of this money was collected in the form of 8-figure contributions. …. Coinbase alone has donated $70 million so far, and crypto investors like Ben Horowitz, Marc Andreessen, and the Winklevoss twins have written multi-million dollar checks. The largest individual donors are also supporting Trump’s candidacy. This money dwarfs the spending by Sam Bankman-Fried in the 2022 election cycle. Of the approximately $45 million Fairshake and its subsidiaries have expended thus far, two-thirds was used to attack Democrats or support Republicans. The cash stockpile positions the industry to be one of the most powerful forces in politics over the next 100 days.” • Oh, good.

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

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Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

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Look for the Helpers

Progress can be made:

Airborne Transmission

Somebody should ask Kamala and Trump if they support this bill (given that it’s bipartisan):

Transmission: Covid

How it started, how it’s going:

Maskstravaganza

“Personal protective effect of wearing surgical face masks in public spaces on self-reported respiratory symptoms in adults: pragmatic randomised superiority trial” [BMJ]. “The most reported adverse effects were unpleasant comments from other people.” • Here is Avian Flu Diary on this article.

“Do N95 Face Masks Expire?” [SmartAir]. “The answer is yes if you’re talking about disposable masks. Disposable face masks will have a best-by date on the packaging, just like food. While this period is likely to be several years away, it is important to use the masks before then to get the best protection. Reusable face masks are washable and safe to reuse, making them an excellent choice to stock up on. For the best results, wash the masks according to the instructions on the package and hang them to dry. Researchers at the University of North Carolina and the EPA tested brand new and 10-year-old expired 3M N95 face masks. The oldest masks had expired 11 years before the study. And if the expiration lifespan is 5 years, that means the oldest masks were 16 years old. Importantly, the researchers tested the masks on real people’s faces, rather than manikins. These fit tests are important because they take into account the part that people most suspect would degrade–the straps and other pieces that influence fit. Surprisingly, the expired N95 masks were within one percent as effective as the brand-new masks–essentially indistinguishable.” • Good news!

This is good, I hope, because I’ve thought of ACT-UP as a touchstone for what Covid Cautious might be:

Is it too much to ask that DSA straighten itself out, too? Or are they too brunch-adjacent by now?

Vaccines

“COVID-19 in Pediatric Populations” (excerpt) [Clinics in Chest Medicine]. Summary:

• SARS-CoV-2 will continue to circulate through communities with novel variants emerging over time.

• While most children experience mild illness, some can develop severe acute COVID-19 or post-COVID complications.

• Vaccination against COVID-19 is recommended for all children 6 months and older.

• If infected, efforts should be made, in accordance with local and national guidance, to avoid spreading infections to others.

Love that last bullet point (that we even have to say it). I’m not a vax maven, so I’m not aware of pediatric studies for Covid vaccines (mRNA and otherwise). Perhaps readers will chime in.

Infection

“SARS-CoV-2 correlates of protection from infection against variants of concern” (excerpt only) [Nature]. From the Abstract: “We find that, in the Delta wave, D614G nAbs mediate 37% (95% confidence interval: 34–40%) of the total protection against infection conferred by prior exposure to SARS-CoV-2, and that protection decreases with waning immunity. In contrast, Omicron BA.1 nAbs mediate 11% (95% confidence interval: 9–12%) of the total protection against Omicron BA.1 or BA.2 infections, due to Omicron’s neutralization escape. These findings underscore that correlates of protection mediated through nAbs are variant specific, and that boosting of nAbs against circulating variants might restore or confer immune protection lost due to nAb waning and/or immune escape. However, the majority of immune protection against SARS-CoV-2 conferred by natural infection cannot be fully explained by serum nAbs alone.” • If any readers have a subscription to Nature, I’d be interested in what you have to say. Here is a thread devoted to it–

“Big picture, these findings are bad for EVERYBODY, but ESPECIALLY for those still clinging to the fantasy of ‘natural immunity'” [@NickAnderegg, ThreadReader]. “The takeaway? It’s unclear if ANYONE has strong immunity to COVID infection!…. You know what the virus CAN’T evade? Electrostatically charged fibers.”

Morbidity and Mortality

“How COVID-19 has Affected Mortality in 2020 to 2023” [Actuaries Institute]. Australia. “There were 8,400 more deaths in Australia in 2023 than predicted had the pandemic not occurred – less than half of the almost 20,000 excess deaths estimated for 2022…. The steep decline in excess deaths in 2023 was primarily due to the number of people dying from COVID-19 falling to 4,600 in 2023 from 10,300 in 2022. While Australia’s excess mortality rate had dropped substantially, it remains significantly higher than the 1-2% excess observed in years of high flu deaths prior to the pandemic. When analysing the excess mortality of 40 countries from 2020 to 2023, Australia’s excess mortality over the four-year period (5%) was low by global standards (11%).” • Despite Gladys’s best efforts!

Celebrity Watch

“Covid hits British Olympic swimming star who had close contact with U.S. athlete” [NPR]. “British sports officials say one of their star swimmers, three-time Olympic gold medalist Adam Peaty, has tested positive for COVID. The announcement comes a day after Peaty competed in the 100-meter breaststroke final, mingling closely with other athletes in Paris, including American Nic Fink. ‘In the hours after the final, (Peaty’s) symptoms became worse and he was tested for COVID early on Monday morning,’ Team Great Britain said in a statement issued Monday afternoon Paris time. ‘He tested positive at that point.’ The statement confirmed Peaty was experiencing symptoms of illness on Sunday prior to competing and interacting with other athletes. ‘Adam Peaty was feeling unwell on Sunday ahead of his men’s 100 meter breaststroke final,’ the statement said. NPR has attempted to contact Team GB to ask why Peaty wasn’t tested sooner, or isolated, with no response….. There are no COVID-specific health rules for the Paris Summer Olympics. That’s a break from strict restrictions implemented at the Tokyo Games in 2021 and the Beijing Winter Games in 2022. On the medal podium Sunday night, Peaty hugged Italian gold medalist Martinenghi and Fink, who won silver in the event.” • Oh. From WaPo, a caption: “Britain’s Princess Anne, left, congratulates Adam Peaty, of Britain, after winning the silver medal in the men’s 100-meter breaststroke final at the 2024 Summer Olympics, Sunday, July 28, 2024, in Nanterre, France.” Presumably Princess Anne will get tested.

“Olympics volunteers resign over lack of Covid-19 precautions” [The Sick Times]. “Earlier this month, a group of Olympic volunteers demanded Covid-19 precautions at the 2024 Paris Olympics, stating they would resign if precautions weren’t implemented. ‘Covid-19 pandemic threat denial is not an antidote to contamination,’ the volunteers wrote in a press release. ‘If no steps are taken, we will collectively resign from our assignments, and will not show up on the Olympic and Paralympic sites we have been staffed.’ Since their statement was issued on July 15, the group has not received a response from the 2024 Olympic organizers, a member of the group told The Sick Times in a phone interview. The volunteer, Thomas, who wished to omit his last name, said the group had around one hundred members, some of whom have already resigned. More than 10,000 athletes arrived this month in Paris and a handful had already tested positive for Covid-19 prior to the games’ start on July 26, including five members of the women’s Australian water polo team. Around 15 million people are predicted to travel to Paris, including 2 million international travelers, at a time when the country is seeing an increase in Covid-19 cases, according to World Health Organization spokesperson Margaret Harris. Still, organizers and teams continue to downplay the spread of the disease. Australian team chief Anna Meares told Reuters: ‘I need to emphasize that we are treating Covid no differently to other bugs like the flu.'”

Elite Maleficence

“The CDC’s test for bird flu works, but it has issues” [News Medical]. “The agency has quietly worked since April to resolve a nagging issue with the test it developed, even as the virus swept through dairy farms and chicken houses across the country and infected at least 13 farmworkers this year. At a congressional hearing July 23, Rep. Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.) asked about the issue. “Boy, that rings of 2020,” he said, referring to when the nation was caught off guard by the covid-19 pandemic, in part because of dysfunctional tests made by the CDC. Demetre Daskalakis, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, responded that the agency rapidly developed a workaround that makes its bird flu test reliable. ‘The tests are 100% usable,’ he later told KFF Health News, adding that the FDA studied the tests and came to the same conclusion. The imperfect tests, which have a faulty element that sometimes requires testing a sample again, will be replaced soon. He added, ‘We have made sure that we’re offering a high-quality product.'” That just needs to be used twice instead of once. More: “Still, some researchers were unnerved by the news coming four months after the government declared a worrisome bird flu outbreak among cattle. The CDC’s test is the only one available for clinical use.” • We learn nothing….

Thanks, Jeff:

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Lambert here: New York hospitalization leveling out, and now WalGreens positivity down for two weeks, are the first positive signs I’ve seen in a long time. Wastewater still going strong, though!

TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

Wastewater
This week[1] CDC July 22: Last Week[2] CDC July 8 (until next week):

Variants [3] CDC July 20 Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC July 20

Hospitalization
New York[5] New York State, data July 26: National [6] CDC July 6:

Positivity
★ National[7] Walgreens July 29: Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic July 20:

Travelers Data
Positivity[9] CDC July 8: Variants[10] CDC July 8:

Deaths
Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11]CDC July 13: Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12]CDC July 13:

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, with hot spots annotated. Keeps spreading.

[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* very popular.

[4] (ER) Worth noting Emergency Department use is now on a par with the first wave, in 2020.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Leveling off. Doesn’t need to be a permanent thing, of course. (The New York city area has form; in 2020, as the home of two international airports (JFK and EWR) it was an important entry point for the virus into the country (and from thence up the Hudson River valley, as the rich sought to escape, and then around the country through air travel.)

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). The visualization suppresses what is, in percentage terms, a significant increase.

[7] (Walgreens) An optimist would see a peak.

[8] (Cleveland) Slowing. Comment on the Cleveland Clinic:

Ka-ching.

[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Up. Those sh*theads at CDC have changed the chart so that it doesn’t even run back to 1/21/23, as it used to, but now starts 1/1/24. There’s also no way to adjust the time rasnge. CDC really doesn’t want you to be able to take a historical view of the pandemic, or compare one surge to another. In an any case, that’s why the shape of the curve has changed.

[10] (Travelers: Variants) Same deal. Those sh*theads.

[11] Deaths low, but positivity up.

[12] Deaths low, ED up.

Stats Watch

Employment Situation: “United States Job Quits” [Trading Economics]. “The number of job quits in the US decreased to 3.282 million in June 2024 from a downwardly revised 3.403 million in May, reaching the lowest level since November 2020.”

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Retail: “Federal regulator says Amazon can be held responsible for faulty goods sold on its marketplace” [CNBC]. “In a landmark order, the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission said the agency unanimously agreed Amazon ‘fits squarely’ within the definition of a distributor of goods and bears responsibility for the recall of faulty products. The decision addresses a thorny issue faced by Amazon for years, with the company arguing it’s merely a conduit between third-party sellers and shoppers. A judge said Amazon’s fulfillment program for sellers give it “far-reaching control” over the products sold on its platform.” • I assume this will end up in the Courts… Still, good for the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission!

* * *

Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 41 Fear (previous close: 45 Fear) [CNN]. One week ago: 54 (Neutral). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Jul 30 at 12:48:21 PM ET

The Gallery

Time to break out my boat shoes:

Zeitgeist Watch

“Why doesn’t advice work?” [Dynomight]. “My theory of procrastination is that a guy named Jim lives in your head. Before you try to do something, Jim calculates how hard it will be and what benefits it’s likely to bring. If he doesn’t like the ratio, he adds a ‘tax’ that makes it very hard to do the thing. Jim is stubborn and not very bright. But Jim Theory, if correct, explains more than just procrastination. A childhood friend of mine always wanted to be a programmer. He did it for fun as a teenager and was good at it, but in college he had to major in something else for financial reasons. Afterwards, he felt stuck in a career he didn’t like very much. I was sure he could still transition into programming. I begged him to try taking a night class, or get a low-level tech support job, or get some kind of online certification, or start an open-source project. I promised him that he could surely find someone who would pay him a below-market salary to do something programming-related. As I said these things, he would nod his head, but in his heart I think he never felt it could work. So he never did anything. It’s incredibly hard to do things when Jim isn’t on board.” • I think I know this Jim guy.

News of the Wired

“Was the Internet Designed To Survive a Nuclear Attack?” [Silicon Folklore]. • No, and in reality, not just according to Betteridge’s Law.

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Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From AM:

AM writes: “The state of the backyard on June 24, 2024. Roses out, rhododendrons coming on strong, climbing hydrangeas at or near peak. Not sure what the yellow ones are. Doesn’t take much space to create an oasis.” Lovely!

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About Lambert Strether

Readers, I have had a correspondent characterize my views as realistic cynical. Let me briefly explain them. I believe in universal programs that provide concrete material benefits, especially to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime example, but tuition-free college and a Post Office Bank also fall under this heading. So do a Jobs Guarantee and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can deliver on such programs, because the two are different flavors of neoliberalism (“Because markets”). I don’t much care about the “ism” that delivers the benefits, although whichever one does have to put common humanity first, as opposed to markets. Could be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don’t much care, as long as the benefits are delivered. To me, the key issue — and this is why Medicare for All is always first with me — is the tens of thousands of excess “deaths from despair,” as described by the Case-Deaton study, and other recent studies. That enormous body count makes Medicare for All, at the very least, a moral and strategic imperative. And that level of suffering and organic damage makes the concerns of identity politics — even the worthy fight to help the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton’s wars created — bright shiny objects by comparison. Hence my frustration with the news flow — currently in my view the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the other by out-of-power liberals and their allies in the State and in the press — a news flow that constantly forces me to focus on matters that I regard as of secondary importance to the excess deaths. What kind of political economy is it that halts or even reverses the increases in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I am also very hopeful that the continuing destruction of both party establishments will open the space for voices supporting programs similar to those I have listed; let’s call such voices “the left.” Volatility creates opportunity, especially if the Democrat establishment, which puts markets first and opposes all such programs, isn’t allowed to get back into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I love the tactical level, and secretly love even the horse race, since I’ve been blogging about it daily for fourteen years, but everything I write has this perspective at the back of it.

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28 comments

    1. nippersdad

      I was watching a Richard Medhurst podcast on YT a little while ago, and he showed a three lane Israeli traffic jam moving south for what looked like miles. He was, understandably, pretty chuffed about it.

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    2. hamstak

      From the reporting I have watched on Al Jazeera and Press TV, this was a limited, targeted strike in an attempt to assassinate a (if not the) top commander in Hezbollah. So far two deaths are being reported; for now it appears that the presumed target was not one of them. There were other strikes in southern Lebanon as well — not sure of the extent of the damage since the coverage I watched focused on Beirut.

      A related news item I have not seen reported elsewhere – according to Larry Johnson:

      “In the wake of the blast in Majdal Shams, the Zionist Finance Minister, Bezalel Smotrich, issued a call to assassinate Hezbollah’s Secretary-General, Hassan Nasrallah.”

      This rather hinges on the precise verbiage of this “call”. Did he say so explicitly, imply it, suggest it would “be a good thing”, etc. That’s a fairly significant statement if true, and would expect condemnation from some quarters but haven’t seen any, therefore I am somewhat skeptical.

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      1. Polar Socialist

        Hezbollah announced earlier that it will respond in kind, so an attack on Tel Aviv is likely forthcoming.
        Lebanese FM hoped it would be “reasonable”, but one begins to doubt there’s much reason left in Levant.

        USA already stated it will defend Israel in case of a Hezbollah attack, while the other team at the moment is Hezbollah, Iran and Turkey. It’s beginning to look like another war coming soon as the escalation ladders are running out soon-ish.

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      2. nippersdad

        He was pretty explicit:

        “Israel’s far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich tweeted, “Nasrallah must pay with his life for the deaths of small children,” adding that “all of Lebanon” should bear the consequences.”

        I don’t think I would hold my breath waiting for anyone in the MSM to condemn him, though. That is just not one of the things that they do.

        https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-07-27/ty-article/netanyahu-hezbollah-will-pay-unprecedented-price-top-minister-calls-to-kill-nasrallah/00000190-f5ca-d8b8-a59a-fdde66be0000

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  2. Jeff H

    “were like a…. were like a bundle of sticks, only strong when bound together…. ”

    Ha Ha I see what you did there!

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  3. dk

    “like a bundle of sticks, only strong when bound together…. ”

    …. but then easily thrown all together into the fire.

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  4. lyman alpha blob

    RE: Ya know, it’s almost like the identity verticals were like…. were like a…. were like a bundle of sticks, only strong when bound together….

    So dry, it’s positively dessicated, Lambert. Kudos!

    What I want to know is, would “white men” organizing for any other candidate been seen as a positive like this apparently is? I think we all know the answer to that.

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    1. Carolinian

      I see Trump responded to Harris’ latest insults (“fraud,” “predator”) by calling her a “low IQ individual.” I think he’s starting to get there–being both dismissive and including a kernel of truth in the zinger. After all whatever her IQ Kamala’s known verbal stumbles are a point of weakness. Meanwhile her retaliatory brickbats have so far gotten the Dems nowhere. Trump is a very known quantity and she isn’t–to her peril. Trying to out bully Trump may turn a lot of people off while pleasing others. She’d do better to let Jon Stewart do it.

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      1. Lambert Strether Post author

        The Trump campaign, just as much as Kamala’s campaign, needs to focus on the fact that there are only one hundred days. I know I have often said that “a week is a long time in politics,” and that’s true, but the candidate also needs to be in top form, and that takes some runway. I think, as you do (“starting to get there”) that Trump isn’t yet in top form.

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    2. Lambert Strether Post author

      > So dry, it’s positively dessicated

      [lambert blushes modestly]

      I mean it, too. If you think about it, you see that the identity verticals are all dominated by what Adolph Reed called “voices.” PMC, basically. There isn’t a process of sortition ha ha. Not — and I know this will surprise you — small-d democratic to the slightest degree.

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  6. Useless Eater

    I haven’t been keeping a precise record, but the Trump v Harris polls are looking about the same to me as the Trump v Biden polls did. And that’s after a week of honeymoon for Harris. She’s unlikely to ever have it any better than she did last week. Maybe another week or 2 will show us her full honeymoon “bump” if we’re not seeing it already.

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    2. Chris Cosmos

      We have to remember that US elections for POTUS have become purely tribal so much depends on those in-between the major tribes–and that depends on the degree people believe the mainstream media which is now almost totally for the DNC as well as the security/intel services. If you believe Hollywood and Washington/NYC are the fount of wisdom, then you will vote Kamala no matter how stupid she is or sounds.

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  7. Louis Fyne

    >>>>Forbes says that the best air purifier overall is a $89.99 Levoit device with a CADR of 40 cfm that took 1 hour and 38 minutes to complete

    (IMO) If you are shopping on price, don’t forget to include the cost of new filters.
    (IMO) For sheer value, the Corsi box probably has the lowest lifetime cost as the box fan is a commodity item and the 20×20 HEPA filters is a commodity item.
    (IMO) If you are looking for dedicated HEPA machines, look to companies in East Asia (see Korean machines at Costco)—consumers over there take indoor air quality and ambient noise from machines really seriously, but it isn’t cheap.

    And if you’re going to throw a HEPA-grade filter into your furnace slot, double check the specs of your blower to ensure that you are not straining your motors. HEPA machines/Corsi boxes are the best solution for indoor air.

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    1. none

      At least with my homemade single filter one with a scrounged box fan, Corsi boxes are intolerably noisy for me to use at home. The storebought HEPA purifier that I use now is a lot quieter.

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  8. Stephen V

    Yes, Lambert, I’ll be having a chat about “Jim ” with my therapist tomorrow. Thanks for that!

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    1. Lambert Strether Post author

      Yeah, that’s one more thing for me to look into. I’ll try to do that tomorrow. One thought that crossed my mind is that there’s some, er, weird piece of Christianist theology to which he is appealing.

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      1. lyman alpha blob

        I’d chalk it up to his ongoing bull$4itting myself until I see evidence of something more nefarious. It is getting people talking about him again after the recent Biden/Harris shenanigans diverted attention away from a very curious assassination attempt that much of our elite media seems to want to flush down the memory hole.

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