Yves here. This post gives a tidy explanation of why Team Biden is so absolutely, no doubt about it, insistent that the President will remain the Democratic party candidate. It’s the confidence, or in some cases, the con, stupid. Candidates must look and act like winners even when they are floundering to preserve the possibility of turning things around.
What we are seeing now is the obverse of this dynamic, that when confidence flags, the worries cascade. Some press outlets tried to depict Biden’s “big boy” press conference performance as pretty good, despite several glaring gaffes like calling Zelensky “President Putin.” And in fairness, I regularly hear YouTubers make slip-ups, like calling Israel “Ukraine” when talk involved both countries, or less frequently, calling Russia “Ukraine” or vice versa. But I don’t recall them ever mis-assigning the names of leaders or prominent pols.
But in a sign of how Biden’s grip is slipping, CNN published this article right on the heels of the close of the press conference. That means it was substantially completed in advance and would have been significantly edited if the press confab was perceived to have gone particularly. In other words, the launch of the piece Obama, Pelosi privately expressed concerns over Biden confirms that Biden’s performance was not strong enough to change the trajectory. From the top:
Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi have spoken privately about Joe Biden and the future of his 2024 campaign…
Democrats are desperate for the dispiriting infighting to end so they can get back to trying to beat the former president. And they’re begging either Obama or Pelosi to help them get there, aware that Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer doesn’t have the trust of Biden and that House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries doesn’t have the depth of relationship to deliver the message.
CNN spoke with more than a dozen members of Congress, operatives and multiple people in touch with both Obama and Pelosi, many of whom say that the end for Biden’s candidacy feels clear and at this point it’s just a matter of how it plays out, even after Thursday night’s news conference.
Ouch.
For a completely different sort of sanity check, I saw my dentist today. Remember I am on a secondary city in Thailand. He trained for many years in the US and speaks perfect English. As I was getting into the chair, he said, “Did you see Biden?” meaning the fresh press conference. He enumerated the flubs and continued:
If Biden was your neighbor, you could see something is not right with him. I don’t know why he is trying to run, except they have no one to replace him.
He then rattled though the weaknesses of the alternatives: Harris, Newsom, Pritzker.
After he cemented my crown, he remarked, “That will last longer than Biden.”
Another arena where this sort of confidence games operates routinely is in combat. That is why truth is famously the first casualty of war. Each protagonist tells its citizens that its victory is inevitable until it is pretty clear it is close to impossible.1 That dynamic has been evident in extreme form in the war in Ukraine. One part of the reason, as Alex Vershinin pointed out in a Royal United Services Institute article, is that the West has been conducting a coalition war. It’s necessary to keep even more potentially fractious parties on board, such as the reluctant Italians and the openly critical Hungarians. So keeping up the drumbeat of positive news and silencing or muffling dissent has been particularly important.
A second reason is the degree to which Ukraine’s allies underestimated Russia. No one expected a protracted conflict, let alone one in which Russia would bleed US/NATO armaments dry and even worse, demonstrate Russian superiority in many weapons categories. Finding themselves faced with a more formidable opponent than they ever expected, the Collective West is faced with the need to keep whipping up enthusiasm, for among other reasons to preserve funding, even as the recent set of elections in the EU show that strategy is no longer working.
By Rajiv Sethi, professor of economics at Barnard College. Originally published at his website
There are some events whose likelihood of occurrence is independent of beliefs about this likelihood. It may or may not rain during the opening ceremonies of the Paris Olympics, but the probability that it will is unaffected by whether people consider the possibility likely or unlikely.
Elections are different. If a perception starts to take hold that a candidate is losing viability, this will depress morale, fundraising, volunteer effort, and turnout among supporters, and thus increase the objective probability of a loss. Pessimism about a candidate can become a self-fulfilling prophecy.1
This is why campaigns tend to release internal polls selectively, circulating those showing their candidate ahead or closing the gap and suppressing those that interfere with this narrative. It is also why observers tend to be skeptical of internal polls, and even to interpret the failure of a campaign to release a poll for an extended period of time as a sign of bad news.
When a campaign is facing an existential crisis, it becomes strategically important for the candidate and committed allies to project a very high level of confidence in recovery. This is the script we have seen play out over the past few days. In his letter to members of congress, President Biden asserted that he could not and would not step aside, that any “weakening of resolve or lack of clarity” would only benefit his opponent, and that that it was time for the speculation to end. He made similar claims in a call with major donors and fund-raisers, and in a media appearance.
Several surrogates have echoed these sentiments, none more spectacularly than Representative Ocasio-Cortez, who insisted that the matter is now closed (screenshot below, link to video here):
This strenuous effort by the president and his allies did indeed shift beliefs about the his prospects, but only temporarily:
The figure above shows daily closing prices for the Biden nominee contract on PredictIt over the past month. Four phases can be identified. Prior to the debate the implied likelihood that Biden would be the nominee was hovering at around 85 percent. This dropped to about 60 during the debate itself, and then fell further to 40 over the next few days. The attempt to persuade the electorate that there was no possibility of Biden stepping aside led to a recovery in prices back to an implied probability of about 60, but this held for just a couple of days. As of this writing, the price is as low as it has ever been:
So we are faced with two inconsistent narratives. The president and his committed supporters insist that there is no prospect of his stepping aside, that the matter is closed. Markets suggest that a change of nominee is more likely than not, and that Kamala Harris has a better chance of contesting the November election than Biden himself.
How do we make sense of this? Statistical models cannot help us figure out a probability, since they are unable to cope with uncharted waters and are still assigning zero probability to the event that someone other than Trump or Biden will win the November election.
It helps to realize that the president currently has only two options—he can either start preparing to step aside and signal that he is doing so, or proclaim with supreme confidence that such a situation could never arise. It is inconceivable to me that his supporters really do believe that the matter is closed. But they have no choice. Leaving the door open even slightly would be fatal for the campaign, as a very public and chaotic battle over the path ahead will erupt.
Hence the president and his supporters will continue to make strenuous effort to convince donors, delegates, and the electorate at large the that there is absolutely no chance of his dropping out of the race. Perhaps this will work, and the probability that he will prevail will creep back up to pre-debate levels over time. But what markets are saying at the moment is that the effort will very likely fail.
In public-facing messages, the campaign has to keep projecting the utmost confidence. But behind closed doors, it would be wise for party leaders, starting with the president himself, to begin planning for an orderly transition. This must be done even if they hope that the plans will never need to be implemented, and even if the plans must—for strategic reasons—be kept hidden from the public.
1 These effects are strongest in multi-candidate elections, but can also arise in two-party contests. And they can create incentives for partisans to try and manipulate prediction market prices, especially when such markets are widely believed to be accurate forecasting mechanisms. Belief in accuracy thus undermines accuracy, which I have referred to previously as the prediction market paradox.
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1 [Yves’ footnote; the one above is Sethi’s from his post] Russia, having won World War II at horrific cost, appears to have a bit more tolerance for presenting bad news to its public. Recall also that Russia retreated and burned Moscow to deny Napoleon shelter and supplies. Russians appear to have deeply internalized this persistence in the face of suffering and setbacks as proof of the importance of tenacity.
“It helps to realize that the president currently has only two options—he can either start preparing to step aside and signal that he is doing so, or proclaim with supreme confidence that such a situation could never arise.”
Rajiv Sethi seems to be correct, because while watching Napolitano’s most recent guests, he repeats showing the same video of Biden’s remarks (with Blinken as chorus backup) at the NATO death meeting. They are very hardline, double down on failure, Russia/Putin the Great Satan, no comprise, eternal war forever. Even for some w/o any prior interest or knowledge of the war, it’s almost cringe inducing.
Regarding crowns, I bet you got a deal compared to US prices. When Covid first struck and shut down business, I was automatically put on the Medicare passed by Congress. I didn’t even ask for it. My dentist told me to take advantage of this before they change their minds, and upgrade 2 heavily silvered teeth to crowns paid for my MassCare. I agreed it made perfect sense.
Later I received a lawyerly notice from MassCare that upon my death, my house would be placed on lien and the cost of medical care deducted from my estate, and/or if I were to go to a nursing home, Massachusetts would seize my home to recover cost of medical care.
Guess Dems better prepare to get Vice President Trump to the head of the ticket…Kamala Harris.
That helped me decide I eventually intend to downsize and get a home at half the price likely in Tennessee before I become too frail.
What a horrible bait and switch!!!
Yes, if you have no assets in state I don’t see how they even find you TN. And you know in most states spouses and heirs are not liable for debts of the deceased.
I like your dentist.
Yes, he is smart and affable. He wears surgical masks but did, with a bit of grumbling, put on the N95 I brought. The second time he made a joke about it.
How much did the crown cost?
“It helps to realize that the president currently has only two options—he can either start preparing to step aside and signal that he is doing so, or proclaim with supreme confidence that such a situation could never arise.”
Rajiv Sethi seems to be correct, because while watching Napolitano’s most recent guests, he repeats showing the same video of Biden’s remarks (with Blinken as chorus backup) at the NATO death meeting. They are very hardline, double down on failure, Russia/Putin the Great Satan, no comprise, eternal war forever. Even for some w/o any prior interest or knowledge of the war, it’s almost cringe inducing.
Guess Dems better prepare to get Vice President Trump – Kamala Harris – to the head of the ticket.
Regarding crowns, I bet you got a deal compared to US prices. When Covid first struck and shut down business, I was automatically put on the Medicare passed by Congress. I didn’t even ask for it. My dentist told me to take advantage of this before they change their minds, and upgrade 2 heavily silvered teeth to crowns paid for my MassCare. I agreed it made perfect sense.
Later I received a lawyerly notice from MassCare that upon my death, my house would be placed on lien and the cost of medical care deducted from my estate, and/or if I were to go to a nursing home, Massachusetts would seize my home to recover cost of medical care.
That helped me decide I eventually intend to downsize and get a home at half the price likely in Tennessee before I become too frail.
Whoever said AOC wants to be the next Nancy P nailed it yesterday.
I look forward to all the chaos on good days….
The Bronx ain’t San Francisco.
Game-theory wise, I guess I see why AOC and Bernie are giving full support to Biden. The left (well, left as far as the US goes) has no power and no sway with anyone right now. Showing loyalty to Biden now maybe gets them some sway if he ends up winning.
Then again, they’ll probably just get kicked again like the left always does.
Who will be the first talking head to ask Biden if he will abide by the results of the election?
Trump ignored the question in the debate. Will biden affirm his willingness to leave the WH when he loses?
Biden needs to stay in the WH basement until the convention, fighting to his last breath. Throw out the non believers. Post election memes. Anything to reach election day.
Let’s test America and see how many liberals are gonna march to the polls and shamelessly vote for the gent with Parkinsons and dementia.
This is the beginning of the end of the Democrats. They might win a presidential election or two in this decade and the next but they will attrition away. I can see it.
I think it’s natural that members of the party act in unison. Nonetheless, Biden must go.
I think it’s important to stress the obvious that the criticism of Biden’s competence is not coming from the RP. When, for example, in 1992 the Republicans were keen to remind voters that Bill Clinton, as governor, had trouble keeping his pants on, it didn’t matter enough. It does matter, however, that a president is capable of reading and understanding documents that are put on his desk to sign. Moreover, Biden’s condition is sure to get worse.
I agree that the DP leadership together with Biden needs to make the change. Where I disagree is that the process of selecting a new candidate be as transparent and democratic as possible. We don’t need a DNC, Bloomberg, Obama, and Clyburn redux in 2024.
Everybody knows Biden must go but, unfortunately, I don’t think the Dems have what it takes to put forth a successful candidate.
If there are sufficiently enough big, well heeled donors throwing their weight against a Biden campaign continuing who also combine with an Obama move behind the curtain, that’s the only likelihood for Joe to step aside. I get the strong sense the Biden family to a large degree feel an entitlement to their place and staying in the White House seems worth it no matter the cost to “Our Democracy”.
Americans have been gaslit since at least early February*, starting from the hues and cries after the Hur report being released and the gasps and oh no they don’t! “Joe is awesome and on top of his game.”. Yesterday’s WC had a quote from Bernie Sanders…ok pull the other leg while you’re at it.
*Quite arguably sooner even, I’m neither a lawyer or a medical physician. So armchair analysis aside, I got my reasons as to why I can’t trust either of the major party candidates. Trump has his warts as well, but many of his lies or falsehoods are practically upfront and 110% covered by many media outlets…