Yves here. This post gives a tidy explanation of why Team Biden is so absolutely, no doubt about it, insistent that the President will remain the Democratic party candidate. It’s the confidence, or in some cases, the con, stupid. Candidates must look and act like winners even when they are floundering to preserve the possibility of turning things around.
What we are seeing now is the obverse of this dynamic, that when confidence flags, the worries cascade. Some press outlets tried to depict Biden’s “big boy” press conference performance as pretty good, despite several glaring gaffes like calling Zelensky “President Putin.” And in fairness, I regularly hear YouTubers make slip-ups, like calling Israel “Ukraine” when talk involved both countries, or less frequently, calling Russia “Ukraine” or vice versa. But I don’t recall them ever mis-assigning the names of leaders or prominent pols.
But in a sign of how Biden’s grip is slipping, CNN published this article right on the heels of the close of the press conference. That means it was substantially completed in advance and would have been significantly edited if the press confab was perceived to have gone particularly. In other words, the launch of the piece Obama, Pelosi privately expressed concerns over Biden confirms that Biden’s performance was not strong enough to change the trajectory. From the top:
Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi have spoken privately about Joe Biden and the future of his 2024 campaign…
Democrats are desperate for the dispiriting infighting to end so they can get back to trying to beat the former president. And they’re begging either Obama or Pelosi to help them get there, aware that Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer doesn’t have the trust of Biden and that House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries doesn’t have the depth of relationship to deliver the message.
CNN spoke with more than a dozen members of Congress, operatives and multiple people in touch with both Obama and Pelosi, many of whom say that the end for Biden’s candidacy feels clear and at this point it’s just a matter of how it plays out, even after Thursday night’s news conference.
Ouch.
For a completely different sort of sanity check, I saw my dentist today. Remember I am on a secondary city in Thailand. He trained for many years in the US and speaks perfect English. As I was getting into the chair, he said, “Did you see Biden?” meaning the fresh press conference. He enumerated the flubs and continued:
If Biden was your neighbor, you could see something is not right with him. I don’t know why he is trying to run, except they have no one to replace him.
He then rattled though the weaknesses of the alternatives: Harris, Newsom, Pritzker.
After he cemented my crown, he remarked, “That will last longer than Biden.”
Another arena where this sort of confidence games operates routinely is in combat. That is why truth is famously the first casualty of war. Each protagonist tells its citizens that its victory is inevitable until it is pretty clear it is close to impossible.1 That dynamic has been evident in extreme form in the war in Ukraine. One part of the reason, as Alex Vershinin pointed out in a Royal United Services Institute article, is that the West has been conducting a coalition war. It’s necessary to keep even more potentially fractious parties on board, such as the reluctant Italians and the openly critical Hungarians. So keeping up the drumbeat of positive news and silencing or muffling dissent has been particularly important.
A second reason is the degree to which Ukraine’s allies underestimated Russia. No one expected a protracted conflict, let alone one in which Russia would bleed US/NATO armaments dry and even worse, demonstrate Russian superiority in many weapons categories. Finding themselves faced with a more formidable opponent than they ever expected, the Collective West is faced with the need to keep whipping up enthusiasm, for among other reasons to preserve funding, even as the recent set of elections in the EU show that strategy is no longer working.
By Rajiv Sethi, professor of economics at Barnard College. Originally published at his website
There are some events whose likelihood of occurrence is independent of beliefs about this likelihood. It may or may not rain during the opening ceremonies of the Paris Olympics, but the probability that it will is unaffected by whether people consider the possibility likely or unlikely.
Elections are different. If a perception starts to take hold that a candidate is losing viability, this will depress morale, fundraising, volunteer effort, and turnout among supporters, and thus increase the objective probability of a loss. Pessimism about a candidate can become a self-fulfilling prophecy.1
This is why campaigns tend to release internal polls selectively, circulating those showing their candidate ahead or closing the gap and suppressing those that interfere with this narrative. It is also why observers tend to be skeptical of internal polls, and even to interpret the failure of a campaign to release a poll for an extended period of time as a sign of bad news.
When a campaign is facing an existential crisis, it becomes strategically important for the candidate and committed allies to project a very high level of confidence in recovery. This is the script we have seen play out over the past few days. In his letter to members of congress, President Biden asserted that he could not and would not step aside, that any “weakening of resolve or lack of clarity” would only benefit his opponent, and that that it was time for the speculation to end. He made similar claims in a call with major donors and fund-raisers, and in a media appearance.
Several surrogates have echoed these sentiments, none more spectacularly than Representative Ocasio-Cortez, who insisted that the matter is now closed (screenshot below, link to video here):
This strenuous effort by the president and his allies did indeed shift beliefs about the his prospects, but only temporarily:
The figure above shows daily closing prices for the Biden nominee contract on PredictIt over the past month. Four phases can be identified. Prior to the debate the implied likelihood that Biden would be the nominee was hovering at around 85 percent. This dropped to about 60 during the debate itself, and then fell further to 40 over the next few days. The attempt to persuade the electorate that there was no possibility of Biden stepping aside led to a recovery in prices back to an implied probability of about 60, but this held for just a couple of days. As of this writing, the price is as low as it has ever been:
So we are faced with two inconsistent narratives. The president and his committed supporters insist that there is no prospect of his stepping aside, that the matter is closed. Markets suggest that a change of nominee is more likely than not, and that Kamala Harris has a better chance of contesting the November election than Biden himself.
How do we make sense of this? Statistical models cannot help us figure out a probability, since they are unable to cope with uncharted waters and are still assigning zero probability to the event that someone other than Trump or Biden will win the November election.
It helps to realize that the president currently has only two options—he can either start preparing to step aside and signal that he is doing so, or proclaim with supreme confidence that such a situation could never arise. It is inconceivable to me that his supporters really do believe that the matter is closed. But they have no choice. Leaving the door open even slightly would be fatal for the campaign, as a very public and chaotic battle over the path ahead will erupt.
Hence the president and his supporters will continue to make strenuous effort to convince donors, delegates, and the electorate at large the that there is absolutely no chance of his dropping out of the race. Perhaps this will work, and the probability that he will prevail will creep back up to pre-debate levels over time. But what markets are saying at the moment is that the effort will very likely fail.
In public-facing messages, the campaign has to keep projecting the utmost confidence. But behind closed doors, it would be wise for party leaders, starting with the president himself, to begin planning for an orderly transition. This must be done even if they hope that the plans will never need to be implemented, and even if the plans must—for strategic reasons—be kept hidden from the public.
1 These effects are strongest in multi-candidate elections, but can also arise in two-party contests. And they can create incentives for partisans to try and manipulate prediction market prices, especially when such markets are widely believed to be accurate forecasting mechanisms. Belief in accuracy thus undermines accuracy, which I have referred to previously as the prediction market paradox.
____
1 [Yves’ footnote; the one above is Sethi’s from his post] Russia, having won World War II at horrific cost, appears to have a bit more tolerance for presenting bad news to its public. Recall also that Russia retreated and burned Moscow to deny Napoleon shelter and supplies. Russians appear to have deeply internalized this persistence in the face of suffering and setbacks as proof of the importance of tenacity.
72 comments
Comments are closed.
“It helps to realize that the president currently has only two options—he can either start preparing to step aside and signal that he is doing so, or proclaim with supreme confidence that such a situation could never arise.”
Rajiv Sethi seems to be correct, because while watching Napolitano’s most recent guests, he repeats showing the same video of Biden’s remarks (with Blinken as chorus backup) at the NATO death meeting. They are very hardline, double down on failure, Russia/Putin the Great Satan, no comprise, eternal war forever. Even for some w/o any prior interest or knowledge of the war, it’s almost cringe inducing.
Regarding crowns, I bet you got a deal compared to US prices. When Covid first struck and shut down business, I was automatically put on the Medicare passed by Congress. I didn’t even ask for it. My dentist told me to take advantage of this before they change their minds, and upgrade 2 heavily silvered teeth to crowns paid for my MassCare. I agreed it made perfect sense.
Later I received a lawyerly notice from MassCare that upon my death, my house would be placed on lien and the cost of medical care deducted from my estate, and/or if I were to go to a nursing home, Massachusetts would seize my home to recover cost of medical care.
Guess Dems better prepare to get Vice President Trump to the head of the ticket…Kamala Harris.
That helped me decide I eventually intend to downsize and get a home at half the price likely in Tennessee before I become too frail.
What a horrible bait and switch!!!
Yes, if you have no assets in state I don’t see how they even find you TN. And you know in most states spouses and heirs are not liable for debts of the deceased.
The NATO tripe is particularly cringe worthy.
I did a bit of war “planning” around that subject in the ’80s. F-16 was pretty new!
NATO (particularly the US) in the 80’s to today is like the 1945 US Army to the one the North Koreans rolled up in June 1950!
Biden used terms “defensive”, I cringed and thought “security” might be a little less a gross lie.
NATO is the DC bloc to grab their (now adding the China end of Mackinder’s object!) bloc! “Defense” is the wrong word!
NATO is not sacred to the common defense, it is a profit generating operation.
Liebensraum for US!
I got one of those, too, when my mother needed nursing home care towards the end of her life. I don’t think the state pursues these claims too aggressively (there’s been bad press), but it’s a requirement of federal law, so they have to send a letter.
It may be worth it to get an elder care attorney to protect your estate. They’re not cheap (my parents paid 15k-20k for MA application and estate planning) but the precautions easily pay for themselves to keep the wolves at bay.
If you’ve got a house in MA (like my dad) then it’s likely well worth it to get some protection.
Also, a word of caution on downsizing…if you have a lot of cash (or liquid assets), that’s easier for the state to grab. You may want to keep your wealth in the house, especially if there’s a survivng spouse. They won’t seize someone’s primary residence.
such clawbacks are one of the main reasons i lobbied so hard to get this place in trust…and to even skip over me, and make my eldest son the lord of the manor.
impossible to get a straight answer about it from the agencies.
(.end continuing threadjack,lol)
I like your dentist.
Yes, he is smart and affable. He wears surgical masks but did, with a bit of grumbling, put on the N95 I brought. The second time he made a joke about it.
How much did the crown cost?
$375. Stupidly cracked an existing crown on nice supposedly healthy dark chocolate (not healthy for my wallet!). Tooth fine, so it really was just the crown, no other work.
Wow, it costs about the same price as in France… I thought Thailand might be cheaper for health stuff. At least you save on housing (I hope!).
This is a dentist for farangs. Dentists catering to Thais no doubt cheaper.
For instance, I saw a very good orthopedist near me who caters significantly to Thais. Still made himself very well understood with charts and human models. Cost of first visit less than $10, which was his exam and diagnosis.
A few odd things are way more expensive than the US from the farang hospital (many specialists practice out of hospitals). There’s one case where the farang hospital price was 3X the US price, but I could get the treatment at the Naval Hospital (for Thais) for > 1/2 the US cost. It really ought to be cheaper but the high price may be due to not being able to get a break on the injectable (hyaluronic acid, which OUGHT to be cheap).
If the dentist was educated in the USA, he likely got educated on higher prices for USAians.
When I lived in France (Paris), I learned to avoid dentists trained in the USA. They were taught to do unnecessary procedures and charge exorbitant amounts of money. The American Way. When I moved to a small village in the south of France, the dentist there sensibly recommended that I stop using the costly, American-made plastic mouth guard at night that was supposed to protect my teeth from grinding. But it was distorting my jaw and making it difficult for me to properly close my mouth. And when I lost a crown on a back tooth, he simply shrugged and offered to grind down and smooth the tooth. Worked fine. Plus he looked like Benicio del Toro.
Wow! Cracked the previous crown on dark chocolate! Sad. I triggered a jaw muscle problem a few years ago eating the hard end of a baguette. Couldn’t eat popcorn for a year after that. Be careful what you chew on!
Anyway by way of comparison re the cost, I checked back for when I had a crown replaced by my dentist in Ottawa, Ontario in October 2016. Also just a crown that had cracked. It cost $896 CAD, so around $670 USD. Would be more now. Sounds like Thailand is a good place to get dental work done.
A lot of people come here for medical tourism, including pretty rich ones from the Middle East (Thailand is closer and obviously cheaper than NYC).
When I was in Thailand in the late 1990s I met several doctors during social events. They would ask where I live in the US, which at the time was Ypsilanti Michigan. Since they all had gone to University Of Michigan on Royal scholarships they knew the location exactly.
> Sounds like Thailand is a good place to get dental work done.
yes, but the crowns are only guaranteed to last longer than Biden. I’d prefer something better.
About 20 years ago, I had an accident in Thuringia and cracked a tooth. I found a dentist in a small town and got it treated. I wasn’t sure if insurance would cover it, so I was quite relieved when he told me what it would cost. I told him how much my latest crown cost (NYC; covered by insurance), and he looked at the crown with an expression of awe.
He sounds like a good dentist he does. Maybe you should ask him how much it would cost him if he had to shut his practice for a few days if he was too sick with Covid because he bet on a surgical mask that offered only 60% protection in contrast to an N95 which offered 95% protection. People don’t generally joke about things that can cost them big money.
“It helps to realize that the president currently has only two options—he can either start preparing to step aside and signal that he is doing so, or proclaim with supreme confidence that such a situation could never arise.”
Rajiv Sethi seems to be correct, because while watching Napolitano’s most recent guests, he repeats showing the same video of Biden’s remarks (with Blinken as chorus backup) at the NATO death meeting. They are very hardline, double down on failure, Russia/Putin the Great Satan, no comprise, eternal war forever. Even for some w/o any prior interest or knowledge of the war, it’s almost cringe inducing.
Guess Dems better prepare to get Vice President Trump – Kamala Harris – to the head of the ticket.
Regarding crowns, I bet you got a deal compared to US prices. When Covid first struck and shut down business, I was automatically put on the Medicare passed by Congress. I didn’t even ask for it. My dentist told me to take advantage of this before they change their minds, and upgrade 2 heavily silvered teeth to crowns paid for my MassCare. I agreed it made perfect sense.
Later I received a lawyerly notice from MassCare that upon my death, my house would be placed on lien and the cost of medical care deducted from my estate, and/or if I were to go to a nursing home, Massachusetts would seize my home to recover cost of medical care.
That helped me decide I eventually intend to downsize and get a home at half the price likely in Tennessee before I become too frail.
Whoever said AOC wants to be the next Nancy P nailed it yesterday.
I look forward to all the chaos on good days….
The Bronx ain’t San Francisco.
Game-theory wise, I guess I see why AOC and Bernie are giving full support to Biden. The left (well, left as far as the US goes) has no power and no sway with anyone right now. Showing loyalty to Biden now maybe gets them some sway if he ends up winning.
Then again, they’ll probably just get kicked again like the left always does.
Some “sway”? For what? He’s funding a genocide! He’s destroying a nation! They’re supporting that, and, for what? To impeach a Justice? For gawds sake.
Durn it! You’re spraying spittle all over my computer screen.
Bernie – once a sheepdog, always a sheepdog.
Who will be the first talking head to ask Biden if he will abide by the results of the election?
Trump ignored the question in the debate. Will biden affirm his willingness to leave the WH when he loses?
We need to have Dr Jill affirm her willingness to leave.
Hunter has squatters’ rights.
Biden needs to stay in the WH basement until the convention, fighting to his last breath. Throw out the non believers. Post election memes. Anything to reach election day.
Let’s test America and see how many liberals are gonna march to the polls and shamelessly vote for the gent with Parkinsons and dementia.
This is the beginning of the end of the Democrats. They might win a presidential election or two in this decade and the next but they will attrition away. I can see it.
Even the upright, juiced Biden is still a shadow of the guy who spent years in NH and Iowa.
Hes president now.. Despite staying vaguely upright, Biden’s famed mastery of facts was usually just recalling thr name of a random country or repeating corporate talking points.
When people see Biden even if he was healthy,, not Obama’s friend or the Onion parody, they are seeing Biden as he’s always been in a fashion.
Momma had a congressional internship a long time ago and did actually get to explore the hill. Her personal favorite story was going over to Ted Kennedy and some what-ever congressman from what-ever district. Fawning over the unknown congressman while Ted Kennedy leans into mom and says “I’m Ted Kennedy.”
“That’s nice.”
Then going back to fawning over the other one. Just to screw with Ted’s head.
Anyways. According to her everyone around the hill already knew Biden was kind-of a moron. How he stumbled into the presidency and now is in this situation is just… perfect for the Democrats.
The rise of safe districts and the induction of Republicans into the elected ranks has simply weakened the environment on the Hill. These people don’t have to run.
Feinstein wasn’t originally godawful, but she sat in her seat with no challengers who could reach her level for years deteriorating long before age was an issue.
I also look at the 1994 wipeout, combined with the retirement from public life of the Kennedy inspired. Instead of Kennedy-era politicians replacing the 1932 Democrats, we had Bill Clinton and Newt Gingrich. Collectively, DC became very stupid. The focus on Obama being a “constitutional scholar” (he did the bill of rights review) was a reaction to DC getting dumb. Obama simply was the loud kid who repeats a professor’s statement back in question form and disinterested in governing. As we get to 2008, we don’t have a class of electeds worried about producing before they face challenges but a class of people born into safe seats and do nothing local archons who had no politics in Congress.
Eventually, you get to a point where an operator like Pelosi thinks running a Kennedy spawn on the platform of “hey, I’m a Kennedy and love DLC thinking” would dethrone Markey.
I think it’s natural that members of the party act in unison. Nonetheless, Biden must go.
I think it’s important to stress the obvious that the criticism of Biden’s competence is not coming from the RP. When, for example, in 1992 the Republicans were keen to remind voters that Bill Clinton, as governor, had trouble keeping his pants on, it didn’t matter enough. It does matter, however, that a president is capable of reading and understanding documents that are put on his desk to sign. Moreover, Biden’s condition is sure to get worse.
I agree that the DP leadership together with Biden needs to make the change. Where I disagree is that the process of selecting a new candidate be as transparent and democratic as possible. We don’t need a DNC, Bloomberg, Obama, and Clyburn redux in 2024.
Everybody knows Biden must go but, unfortunately, I don’t think the Dems have what it takes to put forth a successful candidate.
“unfortunately, I don’t think the Dems have what it takes to put forth a successful candidate” Haven’t they repeatedly proven this?O’bummer being the only exception in the 21st century.
(And I gotta hand it to them, O’bummer was the best con in a long list of ’em.)
The military finance-medical complex put forth O-Grifter. After the financial meltdown in 2008 even my dog could have been elected President.
Hmm… last I looked Biden is a successful candidate according to his
legislative record.
If there are sufficiently enough big, well heeled donors throwing their weight against a Biden campaign continuing who also combine with an Obama move behind the curtain, that’s the only likelihood for Joe to step aside. I get the strong sense the Biden family to a large degree feel an entitlement to their place and staying in the White House seems worth it no matter the cost to “Our Democracy”.
Americans have been gaslit since at least early February*, starting from the hues and cries after the Hur report being released and the gasps and oh no they don’t! “Joe is awesome and on top of his game.”. Yesterday’s WC had a quote from Bernie Sanders…ok pull the other leg while you’re at it.
*Quite arguably sooner even, I’m neither a lawyer or a medical physician. So armchair analysis aside, I got my reasons as to why I can’t trust either of the major party candidates. Trump has his warts as well, but many of his lies or falsehoods are practically upfront and 110% covered by many media outlets…
Tripe about Trump and their democracy!
Playing on faux fears that uni-party hegemony is at risk…….
Keep Biden, toss Biden it is circus!
I have also been gaslit in some way in that I continue to be amazed that Americans so readily believe that Biden is capable of being the president and leader of the free world, including after seeing his performance in the debate.
Along with this, my primary takeaway from last night’s big boy interview is that the Biden team and the Biden family have been lying to Biden about his popularity, the Biden wars, the Biden economy, etc. And Biden has believed what they have told him because he is no longer able to do otherwise.
Carolina – if your scenario is correct, I try to imagine how a Biden (even mentally healthy) could get better information. I doubt he visits NC everyday. I’m sure the structure of the presidency makes its occupant completely dependent on their circle of advisors.
It’s a dreary thought out about how the bubble in DC works. I know it in the abstract, but like viewing uncensored footage of Gaza the reality is worse.
Our nation is run by short-sighted idiots. I’d prefer thinking of them as knowingly evil, not blind men with an over estimation of their virtue.
During the war and protests the media fully reported what was happening. These days the media only promotes the wars and makes heroes of the politicians.
The channels in the White House shall be tuned into MSNBC on a 24/7 schedule without fail. Solves many problems. Hey it’s our friends on Morning Joe! And then we get our friends during the evening schedule like Chris or Rachel. \sarc
Friendly media coverage… Oh and anyone complaining about inflation or Bidenomics is Putin ally…. America is Back!
Agree. I’m not really shocked, but it’s hard to comprehend how so many people think Biden is just fine. He’s old, but that’s it. He might be a little stiff, but he’s fine. He might not talk the best but he’s still sharp as a tack and the guy who should be leading the country. He mixed up some names, nobody cares. No doctor has said he has dementia or Parkinson’s so they are just making things up because they don’t like him. This is all Russian disinformation. Nothing to see here, move along. Joe knocked it out of the park.
It’s truly amazing. I guess you have to twist your own brain into pretzels and recite this horseshit enough times until you believe it yourself – much easier than admitting your eyes and ears didn’t see and hear what they did.
Thousands of people in DC, a couple hundred train cars full of TV pundits, newspaper people, and writers should be thrown out on their behinds for what they’ve done to our system and the American public.
Liars and frauds with no morals or ethics. Screw them all.
ive related that i use my mother, 81, as a specimen under glass for the narcissistic pmc ancient regime types.
a captive representative sample, as it were.
well she keeps offering up that she doesnt see what all the fuss is about, regarding the debate, pants poopin, etc etc….but then again, she also does not notice her own signs of dementia, memory loss, repeating herself 2 minutes later, etc etc.
so i say nothing.
my great grandmother spent her 90’s here with us(not a narcissist, kindly, once was a flapper)…and she also went through all those symptoms.
talkin to me like i was her long dead husband about people, also long dead, who they were going dancin with tonight at Bill Morazz.
i’d want neither of them near the dern Football.
“Strategic Projections of Confidence”
S&P to 500,000…lol…
Pacify and pacify some more.
I watched the press conference, what a delicate matter to ask an 81 year old person if they are losing it. Biden clearly is, and it is disquieting that he is presently and likely will continue to be Prez until at least next January. But I am long versed in what a scoundrel he always was, and the Biden of old was disquieting enough. Greenwald did a segment the other night:
Is Joe Biden a “Good and Decent Man”?
Trump is also a scoundrel. So what is the difference between one scoundrel and another scoundrel? If you’re a Dem’rat, Biden is our scoundrel. Of course the Dem’rats will harp on his conviction, but never mind that Trump was convicted of 34 felonies (one instance with 33 iterations), a type of instance that many in that strata would, or have done. Scoundrels at their level have done far, far worse, indictments for which that will never be brought to any of them.
I continue with my hunch they will pick Whitmer, she isn’t a terrible scoundrel, yet. Maybe she could be, that’s for the PTB to decide. Getting around Harris is going to be really messy.
I agree. Next, she should ask Wes Moore to be the V-P candidate. He is a Rhodes Scholar, ex-military and a Governor. He should also satisfy key demographic blocs of the Democratic Party. For the benefit of donors, he worked as an investment banker. She should not select Senators like Booker or Warnock, since their votes will be needed in the Senate. Warnock, in particular, would place a seat at risk. Then, assuming that Democrats hold the Senate and take back the House, the first order of business should be to push through Franklin Roosevelt’s court-packing plan. Whitmer would have the ability to appoint 4 new Justices, since Alito, Thomas, Sotomayor and Roberts would all be over 70 once she is inaugurated. If this is not done, and done quickly, then we are stuck with this Supreme Court for at least a generation.
lol.
theyll do nothing of the sort.
it would be cooler if they did….but they wont.
performative gestures…and blame the lack of spine(and popular agenda) on the evil fascists in the gop.
most of them likely lay awake at night, conflicted about needing to win, but secretly wanting to lose.
more of those “morbid symptoms”,lol.
:-) – I didn’t mean to appear overly cheery about Whitmer (she isn’t all bad so far) or the system, even the New Dealers were limited and grew faint over time. now, anyone who has enough support (of the powerful) to get to the threshold of the thrown has made too many corrupt bargains to deserve it (in terms of we, the many). In that sense, I’m with Lily Thomlen.
“I continue with my hunch they will pick Whitmer…”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/colbert-jokes-to-gretchen-whitmer-s-face-that-she-rushed-out-slender-memoir-just-in-time-to-replace-biden/ar-BB1pOVWc
Colbert Jokes to Gretchen Whitmer’s Face That She Rushed Out ‘Slender’ Memoir Just in Time to Replace Biden
Whitmer was on Colbert hawking her new book.
Thank you for the link! I never watch TV, except for occasional clips on the interwebs, I would have no exposure and therefore little information on where so many folks find their version of reality. I wouldn’t describe her last remark as sarcastic though, perhaps adroit.
The media would love a cat fight in an open convention. Whitmer vs Harris.
But what would be even more fun would be Harris with Whitmer as VP.
Michigan has 15 electoral votes. Last positive Biden/ Trump poll I saw had
Biden winning the electoral college by 2 points. The Supreme Court would certainly
revisit 2000 and make Trump president, because they can. But an extra 15 points
from Michigan as ‘favorite daughter’ would put that out of reach for even the Obscenes.
Things I know for sure about Joe Biden:
He is a plagiarist.
He has lied repeatedly both as a candidate and as a representative. The run the gamut from minor to major. Including many a whopper intended to advance his candidacy.
He has embraced racists and racist policies while pretending to not to be. He has similar hidden divisive history for workers and labor and women and women’s rights.
He is creepy.
And New Hampshire and Iowa rejected him out right as a candidate in three separate primary elections despite his working hard, this includes 2020. They saw and said no way every time they were exposed to him except the last time when the fix was in.
Things I believe but cannot prove.
He is a moron and his colleagues know it. He is a nasty mean old man and was also that way when younger. He is a second rate lawyer. He is a sexual harasser, gets off on making women uncomfortable and possibly more.
The lockdown should have been about health, unfortunately it was to embarrass Trump AND protect Biden. He would not have gotten elected if he wasn’t relegated to the basement. And yes, more than the odd voices would have been shouting he was unfit if he had to actually campaign in 2020.
It was even more important than his ambitions for Biden and his family to win in 2020. Hunter endangering them all (and the knowledge he would have gone after an opponent this weak if he won) made it essential. Pardons, assurances and yes money are needed not just for Joe but his family.
No one wants to tell Joe he is toast until that happens.
And yes his colleagues know he is mean as a snake and so are his family AND that he would blow up everything to protect himself.
He may be on board, as much for the grift as being part of blowing things up, but WWIII is a long term project, he is a mere figurehead. Getting rid of him stops little or nothing.
Things I wish I knew. If Obama, the blue state governors, top Congressional Dems, and 90% of the media currently have any regrets as the Biden ploy continues to blow up.
> currently have any regrets [?]
I doubt it; I suspect that it is perceived to have been worth it as the price of, in 2020, keeping “the socialist” away from any significant levers of power.
I earnestly hope that the way this plays out in coming weeks and months makes it unmistakably clear what the D Party actually is.
Add one more to your list:
He routinely and shamelessly uses personal tragedy to elicit votes, often presented in a less than truthful narrative (SHOCKING, I know). He is persona non grata to me for all these reasons.
Required disclaimer: not voting for Trump, maybe not voting at all.
I didn’t specify, but one of his most egregious lies was about the traffic accident that caused the death of his wife and daughter. He made the other driver’s life a living hell by making him a drunk driver. (He wasn’t the one drunk.) And his fault. (He wasn’t at fault.) And then even more about the sacrifices he faced as a result. It is even more egregious than the bull about Beau. The only reason this didn’t cause me to despise Biden is I already did when I found it out.
Let’s not forget the photo op of him taking his oath of office in the hospital over his wife’s dying body.
The Ukraine mess is nothing but a grifter’s paradise.
That’s why the greedy degenerates can’t let it go.
He propped up the economy as well as Clarence Thomas.
Anita Hill for President!
This all very interesting as the whole Biden “decline” has become and issue all of a sudden. His debate failure was not, in my view, about his diminished mind–he was poorly prepared and not properly dosed. Just compare that with his “big boy” press conference. In my opinion, except for the usual Biden gaffes (he’s always had them they are just a bit more common now), he aced it. Now, everything he said was BS but it flowed nicely within the media narrative.
So what is happening here? I think the PTB want JB out, probably because of his policies particularly in foreign affairs and war. NATO is losing the Ukraine War as anyone could have predicted. Did they actually believe that Russia would fall apart from the stress of a war? If they did that would be a major failure of the intel community. Maybe the spooks are scared of Biden’s manic glint in his eyes when he talks US/NATO power without, it seems, knowing anything about how deeply in decline the US (and NATO for different reasons) military actually is and with no remedy in sight except from the right (Project 2025 at least tries to address the issues). I think this comes from Biden’s insularity from only having experience in the center of political intrigue within the imperial capital that can only be described as Byzantine on crystal meth. The reality is that the US and Europe are degenerate societies who are obviously in decline because the population of these societies lack a sense of meaning and purpose. The whole neoconservative project was in many ways focused on providing meaning and purpose for the citizenry, i.e., going to (any) war.
My guess is that the capitol has been moved by an attack of realism in recent months and they know that Biden and his people are fanatics and that we need to move towards a more realist Kissinger style in foreign affairs. I don’t think the worry that Biden is not able to govern is the ruling motivation of the sudden media turn-around. It resembles the drastic changes in the political line in the Society Union that was parodied in 1984. All of a sudden they are worried about something that has been obvious for years. I’m really speculating here but maybe the PTB has made some accommodation with Trump so they no longer see him as such a big threat–who knows? After all, Trump likes making deals which is why he will be a better POTUS than Biden, maybe.
I do not buy that Biden was poorly prepared. He has had performance gaffes regularly as well as bouts of looking confused and lost. Sy Hersh reported that he has declined markedly in the last 6 months.
And I don’t buy your meds theory. When someone is declining cognitively, there is little that can be done. Go look at all the Alzheimers meds studies. They can give him amphetamines to hopefully improve his concentration and energy level, which does not help his underlying condition. I hope IM Doc will weigh in, but IMHO it is insane to act as if medications will reverse cognitive decline. I am pretty sure that the state of our science is the best they can do is slow deterioration.
He was badly prepared in that he was focused on “facts” which is not a way to win an American-style debate. His affirmative endorsement of imperialism in his news conference was passionate and believable from a PR standpoint. He was full of it just like the old Senate Joe.
Biden looked medicated in his press conference, i.e., some kind of amphetamine high–the mad glint in his eyes brought back to mind my own career of meth use as a youth. Also, we don’t know his condition so he may not have Alzheimers
I said cognitive decline, not just Alzheimers.
His performance about imperialism was a replay of themes of the NATO conference. So that was effectively scripted. A debate is not scripted.
The treatments for Parkinsons are limited and I am told from people who’ve had people with Parkinsons in their family that they elevated alertness and energy for 2-3 hours, at high cost to energy and concentration the rest of the day.
Levadopa and other Parkinson meds carry bad side effects for some patients of reduced impulse control, mania, aggression, hypersexuality etc.
Do not operate heavy political machinery after taking.
Erm, aricept or donepezil, anyone?
Feels like it’s time to face up to the fact that Biden and neocons will not give up defending the Zionistas, fearing that Harris would not feel the same way. Signs are of no way out and no next generation. I’m sorry to say.
Maybe President Biden and team will model US ¡Our Democracy! on Ukrainian President Zelensky’s evolution of democracy?
If Biden has deteriorated dramatically in four years, what will he be like in 2028? I haven’t seen or heard this question from any of the assorted politicians and pundits who inundate the media. It seems to me an unassailable argument for him to abdicate.
As everyone keeps saying – the genie is out of the bottle, and cannot be put back. No amount of media spin can make Biden ‘right’ again. If he can’t handle anything well now, then another term would be even more disastrous than this one.
Not that he is in charge anyway.
His puppetmasters just want another crack at ruling for another 4 years!
It is too late. The reason they nominated Biden in 2020 is that the younger generation of the Democratic leaders are too Woke for the nation. It is depressing to see that the world’s greatest democracy offers these two choices for the voters. I am no fan of Putin or Xi, but those two are at least an order of magnitude more competent than our two candidates. Maybe we can go for RFK, but he seems to be an anti-vaxxer.