Yves here. Since even news outlets overseas have been overweight on Biden and now Trump coverage, it seems more important than ever not to neglect other major stories. But I have to confess to finding this one on Gaza, Starmer, and Labour to be odd, starting with the first word in the title, “devastation”. Why the apparently perceived need to avoid using words that clearly point to the loss of life and horrific human rights violations, like “genocide” and “ethnic cleansing”?
UK-knowledgeable readers please feel free to correct me, but it seems hard to see how Starmer not opposing Israel’s policies is much of an impediment for Labour. As far as I can tell, voters in the UK who oppose Israel’s bloody campaign against Palestinians have no where to go. Labour, the Conservatives, and the insurgent Reform Party are all firmly pro-Israel. The Lib Dems, who did gain in this election, have some MPs who have criticized Israel. However, they were reprimanded by party leaders. George Galloway’s Workers Party was soundly hostile to Zionism, but Galloway lost his seat and none of the party candidates won. That failure is arguably due to Sunak calling the elections on the early side in part (if not significantly) to thwart the new and barely organized party. But will it have any gas at the next Parliamentary contest?
Perhaps I am wrong for seeing UK voters as having no party allies on opposition to Zionism and therefore Starmer’s support for Israel’s horrific conduct as having low to no practical cost. If so, it would be very helpful to find out why.
By Paul Rogers, Emeritus Professor of Peace Studies in the Department of Peace Studies and International Relations at Bradford University, and an Honorary Fellow at the Joint Service Command and Staff College. He is openDemocracy’s international security correspondent. He is on Twitter at: @ProfPRogers. Originally published at openDemocracy
The Labour Party’s landslide general election victory on 4 July has been compared to the party’s previous wins under Tony Blair in 1997 and Clement Atlee in 1945. But Keir Starmer won a far smaller vote share than either Blair or Attlee and, unlike in 1997 and 1945, the mood of the victors was hardly euphoric – more damp squib than firework display.
The party’s win was not down to any widespread love of Starmer’s policies, but a deeply embedded antagonism to the 14 years of the Tory rule, aided by Nigel Farage’s Reform Party taking votes from the Conservatives, the collapse of the SNP vote in Scotland and an unusually low national turnout.
Labour was further held back by an unexpectedly large number of voters who abandoned the party – many of whom were motivated by its stance on Israel’s assault on Gaza. The mainstream media has wrongly attributed this to the UK’s substantial Muslim minority, portraying it as just a sectarian issue – ignoring the anger and hurt felt by many on the left.
Independent candidates stood primarily on a pro-Gaza ticket across many parts of the north of England, the Midlands and London. Five were elected – a record for a general election – and many more came close, most notably Leanne Mohamad in Ilford North, who managed to reduce new health secretary Wes Streeting’s majority from 5,218 to just 528.
Overall, in 57 constituencies, Labour’s biggest challenger was an independent or a candidate from the Green Party or the Workers Party. The Greens’ leap forward was particularly notable – they came in second place in 40 seats, all currently held by Labour, up from three in 2019.
As the new independent candidates said repeatedly throughout the election campaign, Gaza is just one reason for dissent from the new Starmer norm. Many traditional Labour supporters are also unhappy that the party is moving decidedly rightwards and embracing Big Business, as revealed last week by openDemocracy. Labour now seems likely to end up as a centre-right party – effectively disenfranchising several million people.
Even so, Labour’s position on Gaza was undeniably a big factor in its fall in majorities in many seats. It presents a problem for Labour in general and Starmer in particular that is simply not going to go away – and has several components.
The first is that Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu and his far-right Knesset supporters have long espoused the view that defeating Hamas in Gaza requires inflicting punishment on the whole civilian population. It is this so-called Dahiya doctrine that is largely responsible for the appalling loss of life among Palestinians.
The death toll in Gaza is at least 37,000, with as many as 10,000 missing, mostly buried under the rubble, and well over 70,000 wounded. The Lancet, the world’s leading medical journal, recently published a letter that suggested that if indirect deaths – including those due to disease, malnutrition and increased infant mortality – are included then the total number of human lives lost could reach 186,000.
The second is that there is no end in sight for the current war. There are occasions when talks seem to be getting underway but they repeatedly come to nothing, as they have done for the past six months at least. The Palestinian suffering is huge but the Hamas military leadership believes it can persevere, especially as claims by the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) that most of Gaza has been cleared of Hamas turn out to be false.
Israel’s current leadership has little interest in a long-term ceasefire. Netanyahu will certainly persist with his attack on Gaza until at least the US presidential election in November, now hoping that Donald Trump surviving the recent shooting will help to secure his win. Meanwhile, Israel’s steady encroachment on Palestinian land and people in the West Bank is a further sign of a long-term insistence on permanent control “from the river to the sea”.
Finally, there is one more factor that is rarely understood. The sheer scale of the loss of life and wider Palestinian suffering due to the Israeli assault on Gaza has already caused a long-term – perhaps permanent – shift in attitudes towards Israel and support for Gaza in the UK, which reaches far beyond Muslim communities.
This shift will likely only increase as more and more evidence emerges about the Israeli conduct of the war. Last week the highly experienced foreign correspondent, Chris McGreal, published a report on the IDF’s repeated use of fragmentation artillery shells in densely populated urban areas. Perhaps the most devastating of all such ordnance being used is the Israeli M339 tank shell, whose manufacturer, Elbit Systems, describes it as “highly lethal against dismounted infantry”. No doubt even more so against children.
The deliberate human impact, especially on children, is appalling and causes injuries that would be difficult to treat even in well-equipped and fully functioning hospitals – of which there are none left in Gaza due to Israel’s bombing campaign.
Other similar reports will surely follow McGreal’s and the combined impact will last years, substantially adding to calls for international legal action against Netanyahu and his government.
This is where Starmer is so vulnerable. Thanks largely to the work of a handful of investigative journalists, especially Declassified UK, we know more than the British government would like about the UK’s close links with Israel – including the multiple roles of RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus in aiding Israel and the hundreds of thousands of pounds flowing from the Israeli lobby to Cabinet ministers.
Unless there is a radical change in policy towards Israel now that Starmer is in Downing Street, the assault in Gaza will remain a problem for Labour well into the future. Add to this the wider view that Labour is moving markedly to the right and the huge parliamentary majority may not be as stabilising as it first seemed.
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Regarding devastation of Gaza as political problem In UK: A major reason there being such a low cost for politicians In Europe for both their Ukraine policy and policies regarding Israel is the public made complicit, at least psychologically speaking. I’ve seen my fellow Finns blurt out stupidest comments ever imaginable, not because people were inherently immoral, but because they were ill-informed to a point of psychological abuse. I’m not sure about technical term, but it is demonstratively hard for an individual admit a self-reinforced error, so it has become a shared sin everyone is concealing with their behaviour, something like an alcoholic parent for the whole community. The best I’ve noticed -and I do think there’s been a change of tone among many of my countrymen- is thus falling silent. Majority is in denial and the worst culprits are getting away with it, because people rather deny a realization than admit being tools that they’ve pretty much been all along. And if you go tell them, they get angry. That’s our species In all its glory.
I am not from Finland (but from another Nordic country, Sweden to be specific) but I strongly disagree with the characterization that people just don’t want to admit to having been wrong. The vast majority of the population (including most of those who are silent) simply hates Arabs and Muslims and are happy to see them subjected to genocide. This is mirrored in the ancient hatred for Russians, which is in turn reflected in how Sweden tends to top the list in support both for sending weapons and for sending troops to Ukraine when European nations are polled. (I haven’t seen numbers for Finland but I would guess that they’re similar.)
These people are aware that there are limits to how openly enthusiastic they can be about what’s going on, but relieved that these old taboos are lifting. (Swedish state media, which once, with justification, was decried as left-wing, is – incredibly – far more biased toward Israel in their reporting than even American media. Remember also the outrage from Swedish journalists and functionaries at the Eurovision Song Contest – one of the functionaries hilariously exclaimed “this is not a question session!” when the Israeli singer was subjected to a critical question at a press conference – and the hand-wringing that Israeli visitors didn’t feel safe or welcome, because some – mainly Muslim immigrants, obviously – in Malmö were unhappy that the Israeli government was committing a genocide.) Israel is supported, fanatically and completely unconditionally, on the basis that it is a part of the West, fighting the barbaric East (just like the Ukrainians). When people are pressed enough on the subject or able to express it anonymously (such as on internet forums), these opinions also tend to come out in the open.
There are obviously exceptions to the rule, but they’re a lot fewer than even I would have anticipated (and I had a very low opinion of my so-called fellow countrymen long before this war, or the one in Ukraine for that matter, broke out).
Very important observations, for which I am grateful.
Hello darkness, my old friend.
When seeds of fear and hate are planted in one’s garden, as soon as one sees it has germinated and taken hold, remove it before it grows, multiples, and flowers/fruits.
After more than 6 decades on this planet, it amazes me how people allow fear and hatred to take root and allow resentment to grow. Resentment so deep that it allows acquiesce of cold-blooded murder is allowing darkness to conquer the Light within.
I can’t even come close to understanding why humans don’t protect their own souls.
I’m not sure aboutI’m not sure about technical term, but it is demonstratively hard for an individual admit a self-reinforced error, so it has become a shared sin everyone is concealing with their behaviour, but it is demonstratively hard for an individual admit a self-reinforced error, so it has become a shared sin everyone is concealing with their behaviour
Cognitive dissonance, in psychological terms.
The remarkable fact of the UK election – something so obvious that even the Guardian couldn’t ignore it – is that Labour won a gigantic landslide in seats while barely shifting their vote in absolute or relative numbers. In fact, nearly all the increase in votes for Labour came in Scotland, thanks to the ineptness of the SNP.
The reason for this is very simply and straightforward – Reform split the right wing vote, losing the Tories seat after seat all over England allowing Labour and LibDem victories in droves as non-right wing voters went for whoever would stop them. Labour rarely faced any organised competition from the left to centre – where they did, either from a strong local party (LibDem; Green or Plaid Cymru) or from a strong independent, they often suffered as badly as the Tories. With hindsight, the decision of the Tories to go to the country so early was an enormous boon to Labour, as it made it almost impossible for anti Labour groups to organise a meaningful opposition. Too often the anti-Labour vote was itself split. In some cases, clearly by Labour itself running shadow candidates.
I doubt they’ll be turning their brains to it immediately, but it must have crossed the minds of at least some within Labour that if they are not careful, the same thing could happen in reverse in the next election, especially if some form of united Tory/Reform party emerges from the ashes (my guess is that it would be in the form of an effective right wing nationalist take over of the Tory Party.
The big problem for opponents of Starmer, is that the non-Labour left is hopelessly ideologically split. There are old style social democrats who hate the neoliberal/neocon turn, Greens, local nationalists (such as Plaid Cymru), and various orthodox leftist groups, not to mention locally based overtly muslim political groupings, who up to now have been content to be entryists into whichever party looked my convenient. Given the nature of the UK political system, its very hard to see any one coherent alternative party of the left being able to seriously challenge.
I’m not in the UK so I can’t comment, but I seriously doubt that there is sufficient interest in Gaza among the electorate as a whole to make it toxic for Starmer to do what he or his handlers wants. The passion on Gaza is primarily among young activists and the various ethnic minorities who are important, but not vital, to Labour.
But its also the reality that any opposition to Starmer inside or outside Labour must find something to rally around. The big tent of Toryism broke up because a minority on the libertarian/nationalist right found an issue to rally around – Brexit. Many didn’t even particularly agree with it, but it was a convenient lever to open up the fissures that always exist within big tent political groupings. Anti-Starmer forces need to find an issue to rally around, and Gaza could be it (although I suspect that Gaza is just too far away from most peoples experience to do that). I assume that the advisors around Starmer are smart enough to see the need to prevent any such catalyst developing, but these things have a habit of taking a life of their own.
But the reality is that unless something unexpected happens, the UK is stuck with Starmer for the next half decade – probably more, given how long it will take for a real opposition to organise. Something may arise that gives opponents the chance to unite on the ground. But I really think its too early yet to be sure what that will be.
yes, that’s a solid take. Labour ran shadow candidates notably in Blackburn against Craig Murray (Adnan Hussein, the “independent”, actually won) and perhaps even two in Stratford & Bow against Halina Khan. I don’t know why voters turned against Galloway, though.
I agree that the public is largely apathetic to Gaza. They mostly just wanted the Tories out, even if they were only subbed by their B team.
Starmer will be brought down by living conditions that continue to worsen, maybe even the war in Ukraine if it keeps on escalating. At some point, the media will turn on him when public opinion has sufficiently shifted.
Also worth noting, in the 2019 GE, the media did a good job of scaremongering about a Corbyn government that more people who otherwise would have stayed home or voted Lib Dem voted Tory. This election, the Labour vote decreased but the Tory vote collapsed, as more people became apathetic due to the lack of choice or simply out of a lack of fear of a Starmer government.
Yes, it would be interesting to see a discussion of why Galloway’s Workers Party of Britain did so poorly. Interesting point about Sunak calling the election early to thwart Galloway and the WPB. But, we see Melanchon and BSW in Germany doing well, so one has to ask, is there a difference in Galloway’s party vis-a-vis BSW and Melanchon that accounts for these different results?
I can’t say for sure, but many of my left wing friends in the UK are very uncomfortable about Galloway for a lot of reasons, not least his obvious gigantic ego. Among other things, he has a long record of making local alliances with often very conservative and reactionary immigrant groups. No doubt he sees this as part of his grant strategy, but equally, those groups see his support as important for their slow steady attempts to gain control over local and regional power bases.
The reality is that under the UK political system, there is really only room for two ‘big tent’ political parties, and all the others have to live off the scraps, unless there is some geographical concentration (such as for the nationalist parties). There really is no unifying set of principles that could unify all the ‘left, but not Labour’ voters that I can see on the horizon.
Not having met George Galloway in person you may have an advantage when writing that he has an ‘ obvious gigantic ego ‘ , but if like me you are going on his presentation on videos and podcasts then I strongly disagree .
Confident , yes . Harsh in his opinions , certainly . Often self-deprecating ( ” I may be wrong – I have often been so before ” , for example ) in an even tone .
The only discernible gigantic ego utterances are statements about the number of viewers claimed and naming his presentation as the Mother of All Talk Shows – both being acceptable promotional gambits .
His speeches in the House of Commons and especially his appearance before the US committee ‘ investigating ‘ sanctions evasion in Iraq where he scattered the blow-dried poseur frauds of US politicians who attempted to smear him are jewels of oratory – incisive , devastating , eloquent and to the point .
His election loss is to despair .
Oh, it’s Rogers again. More wishful thinking.
Look, UK elections are not won, or for the most part even influenced, by foreign policy issues, and there is no reason to suppose that Gaza had any measurable impact on the results on July 4. (PK has set out what happened very well.) There was a lot of unhappiness and opposition to what was going on there, and a degree of organisation in Muslim communities. But most people in Britain (unlike political activists) are well aware that even quite dramatic shifts in public opinion don’t impact the conduct of foreign policy except in extraordinary circumstances, largely because there are so many moving parts, and domestic public opinion is only a smallish one of them. Moreover, compared to the damage that a major change in UK policy on Gaza would do to the relationships with other western states, it’s not obvious that the transitory applause of political activists is actually worth having.
I suspect there will be a change in policy at some point, but it will be a result of pressure from outside, not inside.
I completely agree. Interestingly, at the EU level we’ve already seen not only the dynamic you describe in your last sentence (i.e. changes in rhetoric away from complete support of Israeli genocide, not because of popular sentiment inside the EU but due to pressure from outside, namely the rapid collapse of the EU’s standing in the Global South), but senior officials (chiefly Borrell, who, as despicable as he is overall, has this bizarre and somewhat endearing compulsion to speak the truth, even when it’s incredibly damaging to his own side) more or less openly admitting that global sentiments toward the EU were driving that shift in rhetoric.
See for example here: https://brusselssignal.eu/2023/10/borrell-eu-needs-to-address-its-double-standards-over-israel-palestine/
This is causing a number of fissures within national politics too. In Ireland, officially the coalition government MEP’s are supposed to vote as one in the European Parliament, but when it comes to voting for Van der Leyen, the MEP’s one of the centrist parties (FF), have refused to vote for her, while the other ones (FG) are going the other way. The FF MEP’s are explicitly calling out her behaviour over Gaza. Its causing a lot of embarrassment for both parties as they are clearly unsure how to follow through on their rhetoric. I suspect this reflects deep uncertainty and splits within and between both centrist parties.
I will take a risk and disagree with PK and Aurelien. Luckily nobody will see this in a comment so late!
The core Labour vote is very concentrated in urban areas. In many of these, it is increasingly dominated by the Muslim vote (which, by some accounts, is a block vote through abuse of the postal vote by “community elders”) and, in University towns, also by student PMC types. Both of these wings reject the party stance on Gaza. As a result, independent candidates standing on Gaza significantly eroded Labour majorities in this election.
It feels to me like Labour’s Brexit issue: something fundamental enough to cause a rupture with a core voting block, which will ultimately split the party. Labour has no defining economic fissures, they are all neoliberal now (Clause 4 and public ownership was the last split battleground that birthed the SDP and Tory rule). Labour is all about identity and that makes Gaza a very dangerous issue, particularly when the LGBTQIA2S PMC types in Labour are so at odds with their socially conservative Muslim vote.
Reform is demonstrating that minor parties can succeed where the vote is concentrated. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Muslim Farage arise, who can get a Muslim party elected in a handful of seats and take a lot of Labour votes away in others.
Ironically, that party’s manifesto might look a lot like Reform’s, even on immigration (keep the asylum seekers out, reduce economic migration to ease pressure of wages and public services) except on specific topics like family reunion migration….
https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2024/07/the-muslim-vote/
The Craig Murray link above introduces new complexities. What if the future Muslim vote in Britain is won by somebody not because they appeal to interests common to muslim and non-muslim voters but because they appeal to the exclusive spiritual interest of muslim voters? Would a Muslim Reform be a sectarian party?
You refer to the GE 2024 as if it were run of the mill. In fact since 1945 most governments had modest majorities until 1979 and 1997. What has changed is postal ballots which are 22% in UK and was around the same in Germany 2021.
Turnout was lowest since universal suffrage. The issue is the declining vote share of major parties and fragmentation of polity. In UK fragmentation came on regional lines with Plaid and SNP but now the potential is for England to fragment as Starmer is last chance saloon for London-based parties
The urban centres are evolving away from national parties and Conservatives are toast. Chamberlain saw Conservative brand as toxic and wanted to change name to Unionist in 1937 but failed. War gave it a renewal until 1945.
It is now resoundingly dead after Osborne and Cameron eviscerated the prospects for most Britons and even looted funds from Northern Councils to send to Scotland to influence the referendum there. Unless you know the ground in Northern England and east Coast you have no idea what is going on and will erupt
The “Israel has a right to defend itself from terrorists” line has been sold well in UK (and US), and with MSM hiding the war crimes, the non-curious don’t hear or read the reality.
I also suggest that from the 1970’s the idea that Israel is a plucky country fighting oppression from the nasties has been pushed hard and successfully to become the dominant image.
Only problem is the „terrorists“ operate on their own territory which Israel has invaded and occupied and ravaged. Not clear to me whether Israel actually has borders or is simply „ ein Volk im Waffen“ as they say
“Why the apparently perceived need to avoid using words that clearly point to the loss of life and horrific human rights violations, like “genocide” and “ethnic cleansing”?”
Because they are leagally actionable?!
While the bloodletting and destruction and devastation continues unabatted, ICJ is going to release a report on the legal implications of Israel illegal as well as abusive occupation of Palestinian lands since 1967 this week, ICC is debating issuing criminal charges against Israel officials, and there is the genocide trial on Israel going on at The Hague, ICJ. This is a front where Israel is getting a very well deserved but very late trashing.
Propaganda, propaganda, propaganda. The UK (and especially the BBC) is masterful at using subdued language to impose its ‘morality’ over its politics. I’m a LP member from a long line of Labour Party members and I HATE todays LP. The two-party trap along with propaganda cements support for ‘the west’. Gaza banged its way onto the front pages as a ‘moral’ and NOT a political issue in the recent General Election but there was virtually no debate about it and none about Ukraine and an unwillingness to see Palestine and Ukraine as part of the same picture – US (and UK) Hegemony. That change will begin when ‘the West’ is defeated on the battlefield. That will concentrate minds. Until then we need to fight the propaganda and one thing not sufficiently credited is the way the ‘alternative’ media is helping to create an awareness of the latest form of US imperialism and US Foreign Policy. In the meantime all we have for Palestine is demonstrations and tears – but don’t underestimate that. The moralism that disguises itself as politics is being shattered……until Ukraine I had never come across this website or Moon of Alabama or Consortium News or the Gray Zone or Scheerpost or the many other excellent sources in the US. Here in the UK we thought US politics was backwards. But there is a much greater awareness in the USA (and among those US patriots who have had to flee abroad) than here in the UK (despite wonderful productions like Declassified UK) about the need to tackle US global domination that is beginning to have an impact. We need to link all these things together and reassert class politics over identity politics . I am optimistic that this can be done – BUT what we should be focussing on as a species is climate change. The uncontrolled market and modern imperialism is killing the planet. We are running out of time. We need to support Russia and China, and we need to force the US to change.
It is British Foreign Policy and that is why Gaza is like Iraq and Libya
It is essential that foreign policy be an election issue
Well noted. BBC exists to induce mild depressive state of impotence in inhabitants of UK, a sort of resignation to Fate, as if it has been ordained.
Quite the opposite of the Protestant history of the nation where the individual was accountable and driven to action
It’s worth remembering that Labour got less votes in this election than it did in either 2017 and 2019 when Corbyn was in charge, wirh a left wing platform. Due to the low overall turnout that still gave them a slightly bigger share of the votes cast. Their victory is entirely due to the Tory vote being split by Reform.
https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2024/07/the-rejection-of-starmerism/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_United_Kingdom_general_election
https://ig.ft.com/uk-general-election/2024/results/?constituency=E14001279
Half Starmer‘s Cabinet was funded by Israel-Firsters. Conservatives were so bought that both Osborne and Cameron boasted of Jewish ancestry. There are 270,000 Jews in U.K.
It is not only Muslims that are outraged that a country where Jews exercise total control is beyond accountability for criminal behaviour and aided and abetted by U.K. and U.S. militarily and economically
Just as BreXit was a revolt against London and correlated perfectly with per capita public spending in inverse ratio, so Gaza is a touchstone alongside Net Zero food prices and energy poverty
Starmer will be in deep difficulty in 9 months. He has a big enough majority for his party to split and not enough votes in the country to keep it together
Galloway was knifed by split vote with too many candidates but his party came second in many seats and Reform is a Ltd Company run by Nigel Farage as a fan club which will implode like all Farage parties
Life in U.K. will deteriorate rapidly. There is a £50 billion tax rise necessary and U.K. has major problems of overcrowding in England which is not faced in devolved regions
Frankly I see U.K. as pre-revolutionary. It is a society best analysed in Marxist terms. Very few Americans understand the country because they sit in London and dine with the affluent
In one generation people like Milibands or Sunak or Tugendhat or Lammy or Badenoch or Patel or Braverman are in Cabinet from immigrant backgrounds yet Northerners cannot even get decent jobs or schools
Starmer will blow up like Macron. He is weak and sounds weak and has no grass roots support. Rayner and he will fight. Reeves is out of her depth with experience at HBOS mortgages as her real world experience !
I see very turbulent times ahead especially as BRICS makes life very uncomfortable in UK