Dragonflies swarm beachgoers at Rhode Island’s Misquamicut Beach WCBB. It’s an annual event.
Macro problems on the horizon Splash 247
US consumers show signs of flagging, companies and analysts warn FT
Big Law Confronts Tail Risk Threat to Private Equity Bankruptcy Bloomberg
Odd Lots Newsletter: Maybe the Fed Is Too Data Dependent? Bloomberg
Climate
Huge California wildfire tears through 5,000 acres every hour BBC
Syndemics
Coronavirus: Swedish King Carl XVI Gustaf says coronavirus approach ‘has failed’ BBC
Tourists warned of Covid surge in Greece, Cyprus, Portugal and Malta The Mirror
China?
China’s population facing ‘largest absolute population loss’, UN says South China Morning Post
ASEAN top diplomats discuss South China Sea disputes, Myanmar fighting Al Jazeera
Posing as ‘Alicia,’ This Man Scammed Hundreds Online. He Was Also a Victim. WSJ
Pakistan under pressure to renegotiate hefty Chinese power deals Nikkei Asia. Commentary:
There’s a whole genre of videos on TikTok showing off the expensive homes and lifestyles of the super-rich in Pakistan. This is in context of a country where most people are poor to the point of food insecurity. You can imagine the warped political economy that allows this. pic.twitter.com/M5JuHOje87
— Murtaza Hussain (@MazMHussain) July 27, 2024
The Koreas
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is driving South Korea arms industry boom South China Morning Post
K-Pop Reimagined Bloomberg
Indonesia moves to reduce Chinese ownership of nickel projects FT
Syraqistan
‘They were just kids. What did they do wrong?’: In Majdal Shams, a town caught between Israel and Hezbollah mourns its young CNN. Commentary:
“You murderer, get out of here!”
Syrian Druze residents of the town of Majdal Shams in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights expel Israeli Finance Minister and other members of the Likud (Netanyahu’s party) from the funeral of the 12 youths who were killed after a missile fell on a… pic.twitter.com/UeQ4AXj6Zb
— The Cradle (@TheCradleMedia) July 28, 2024
Ministers authorize Netanyahu, Gallant to order retaliation for deadly Golan strike Times of Israel
All-out War in the North? Israel’s Reaction to Majdal Shams Attack Will Be the Deciding Factor Haaretxz
Forecasting the Probability of War Between Israel and Hezbollah RAND
* * * Erdogan says Turkey might enter Israel to help Palestinians Reuters
* * * Which countries have sanctioned Israeli settlers – and does it mean much? Al Jazeera
Colonialist pr0n:
Good morning from Beautiful Gaza pic.twitter.com/zjQMC0M1Px
— Mossad Commentary (@MOSSADil) July 28, 2024
* * * US medics who volunteered in Gaza demand arms embargo over ‘unbearable cruelty’ inflicted by Israel Guardian
European Disunion
EU firms resist European Commission plan to screen private investment in China South China Morning Post
GDP per capita in the five largest European economies FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Dear Old Blighty
Nation ‘broke & broken’, says new UK govt as it plans to repair economy Business Standard
Rachel Reeves is going for broke Funding the Future. Commentary:
Fallen into a timewarp and ended up back in 2010. Government spending is a household budget once more pic.twitter.com/CSTp5TFW9M
— Duncan Robinson (@duncanrobinson) July 29, 2024
New Not-So-Cold War
Russia Punches Through Weakened Lines in Eastern Ukraine NYT
Only ‘brute force’ can compel draft-age Ukrainians in Europe to go home and fight: ‘Sputnik Globe’ interview Gilbert Doctorow
Only six Ukrainian pilots trained to fly new F-16 fighter jets The Telegraph
* * * Ukraine Would Lose a Quarter of its Territory if Ceasefire Called Now Kyiv Post
UBN: Ukrainian business confidence falling as war pressures mount BNE Intellinews
Putin Warns of New Cold War Triggered by US Missiles in Germany Bloomberg
Subscriber Mailbag – Answers (7/28/24) Simplicius the Thinker(s)
South of the Border
Latin American leaders react with mixed responses to Venezuela election results Anadolu Agency
2024
The Bezzle
Inside the Harvard Business School Ponzi Scheme NYT
Why many nonprofit (wink, wink) hospitals are rolling in money WaPo
Digital Watch
Dear Google, who wants an AI-written fan letter? TechCrunch
Secure Boot is completely broken on 200+ models from 5 big device makers Ars Technica
It’s not just Boeing. Challenges mount for Airbus and aviation industry Seattle Times
Supply Chain
Dark fleet additions see Cook Islands become a top 30 flag Splash 247
Indian oil importers’ thirst for Russian crude drives dark fleet demand Seatrade Maritime News
Imperial Collapse Watch
“Raiders, Rulers, and Traders: The Horse and the Rise of Empires” by David Chaffetz Asian Review of Books
Class Warfare
Where are the world’s millionaires and how is wealth divided globally? Al Jazeera
Bosses regain the upper hand in hiring FT
Top pilots’ union sounds alarm as regulators consider smaller crew sizes Guardian
The spectacular rise and surprising staying power of the George Foreman Grill The Hustle
Antidote du jour (Derek Keats):”
See yesterday’s Links and Antidote du Jour here.
ARAB RIGHTS
(melody borrowed from Southern Nights by Allen Toussaint, as performed by Glen Campbell)
Arab Rights?
Whatchoo talking about? Arab rights!
Down on your knees
While we burn olive trees
You have all got to go—don’t you know?
Apartheid
A world of misery a world of lies
You’re demoralized
Some Brooklyn settlers came to play
Your house goes up in smoke today
Paradise
We’re here to build a Jewish Paradise (a Paradise)
If your family dies
It’s no loss in our eyes
You know
We are in control
Like three thousand years ago
This land
Was given to us straight from God’s hand
Our Israeli Reich must expand
Says our God in the sky
So get out now or you’ll die, boy! Boy!
If we could
We’d call down Heaven’s lightning
Neighborhood
Could use a little brightening
Miseries
From us will keep you living on your knees
It is our right
To redeem our prize
Israelites
We see new prospects ripening
Our state should (Israelites)
Keep stealing and inciting
Old man
He and his dog they walked this old land
As he slowly walked by
The weeping willow would cry
For you.
Re Coronavirus: Swedish King Carl XVI Gustaf says coronavirus approach ‘has failed’ BBC
Slow news day? That article dates from 2020.
Something newer, a Swedish docu w/ English subtitles. utube, 1hr 40- minutes.
Safe & effective – The side effects that disappeared – Swedish docu about the covid scandal ENG SUB
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJDaH5NV-HA
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is driving South Korea arms industry boom
Did he mean North Korea instead of South Korea?
“As Russia has grown increasingly isolated from the international community, it has elevated its ties with North Korea to the level of a comprehensive strategic partnership, including mutual defence assistance.”
Did he mean United States and Europe have grown increasingly instead of Russia?
“This has emboldened North Korea’s provocative actions…” and “Since the Korean war, South Korea has been under constant threat from North Korea.”
Did he mean South Korea instead of North Korea in the first quote, and North Korea under constant threat by the United States in the second?
This just demonstrates how kayfabe reporting of internstional geopolitics is.
Why choose? Could be both!
I have one question no one seems to want to answer, when demand exceeds supply for electricity who gets the power? The datacenters or citizens?
In the medium term the maximum amount of generating capacity is basically fixed and inelastic. It is well documented that it takes years, at best, to add any meaningful amount of new capacity and we also have to replace capacity that is aging out. And, the grid is in a sense capacity limited.
Datacenters must have uninterrupted power. Not only to run the algorithms but for their cooling systems.
So again, in a pinch who gets the power? I know what my bet is.
they will be fed by backup generators, for not just brownouts…ice storms, etc. EV chargers will be taken out before datacenters.
In most of the country site-ing near natural gas pipes is taken for granted. I dunno about parts of the Northeast….I imagine it’san annoyance but not a problem.
your point still stands…lots of superfluous demand in the system now….don’t get me started on video adverts on webpages. I imagine that demands a non-trivial amount of power.
> The datacenters or citizens?
I had the same question when I saw separate NC post on the topic this morning. In the USA I think the answer is fairly clear. Corporations are people and money is political speech hence the wealthiest corporations have more say than the citizens in who governs. Separately, because markets, the AI consumers can out bid us for each MWh so they win on that front too.
Non-eating persons, of course.
I do not know!
However, in New England natural gas is used to generate electricity.
During a cold snap, natural gas goes to home heating and the generators switch over to distillate oil which they all keep tanks for such events.
AI might be more important than frozen pipes in Bangor?
“Top pilots’ union sounds alarm as regulators consider smaller crew sizes”
Yeah, nah! Only a single pilot? What could possibly go wrong? An Airbus CEO said that ‘Technologically, it is feasible’ but he is wrong. Suppose that there is an emergency. Right now one pilot flies the plane while the second looks through the checklists to find solutions to the problems that they are experiencing. What are they going to do? Replace that second pilot with a ChatGPT? Ask Siri for help? I’m sure that Sully could have used that trying to land his plane on the Hudson. Imagine a single pilot having to pull this off-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fJ5ZLdJDBrg (3:07 mins)
The Boeing 737 MAX tragedy [accident investigation outcomes] resulted in demands for automated [SW} response to the stall situation which was originally allocated by the engineers to the pilots [before two not so qualified crews augured in 737 MAX’s].
Is the software dumbing down crews and can it justify fewer crew slots? I doubt…..
Maybe AI will put another 10% of intuition in the autopilot!
It wasn’t the two pilots that augured in their jet into the ground but the software addition that hardly any pilots knew was even installed there – mostly because Boeing fought to ensure that it was not mentioned in the manual. You have had similar things happen with some modern cars where drivers are unable to slow or even stop their cars until they crash because of dodgy software. Modern corporations want to replace pilots with software a much as possible because markets but from time to time you need a man or woman in the cockpit when emergencies arise to fly by ‘stick & rudder’ when the software lets you down.
Elon Musk promised self-flying planes to along with self-driving cars.
A few days ago Links had an article by Fabian Scheidler that I thought very good “Europe’s Path to War and Self-Destruction”.
I see he wrote a book that was published by zer0 and has a lot of translations: The End of the Megamachine – A Brief History of a Failing Civilization. Has anyone here read it? Worth the effort?
>Generative AI requires massive amounts of power and water, and the aging U.S. grid can’t handle
Now concerns are mounting about whether the U.S. can generate enough electricity for the widespread adoption of AI, and whether our aging grid will be able to handle the load.
How about just fixing potholes the potholes on the road, making my water clean enough to drink so I don’t have to keep buying plastic bottles, or keeping the air I breath and the sky clean of man-made pollutants, how about adding supporting rail travel so I can leave my car at home. No, none of that is important. But if the billionaire’s need dependable, scalable electricity, so lets get right on it, let’s make sure their needs are taken care of first so I can leave my encyclopedia on the book shelf and instead ask ChatGPT.
Nah. You need AI to find the best solution to pothole problem.
The source for “Inside the Harvard Business School Ponzi Scheme” is New York Magazine, not NYT. I had my doubts that the NYT would run such a headline. Alternative working link : https://archive.ph/ALCef
>Erdogan says Turkey might enter Israel to help Palestinians – Reuters
I like this headline from RT better, it gives you the punch line right in the lede.
Erdogan could end up like Saddam – Israel
Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz has warned that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan could end up like former Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, who was toppled and executed by a US-backed coalition, if he attempts to intervene in the Gaza war.
The dogs bark, but the caravan goes on.
‘Duncan Robinson
@duncanrobinson
Fallen into a timewarp and ended up back in 2010. Government spending is a household budget once more’
Nobody believes it any more. This is just another way of saying that they will impose austerity which actually helps kill your economy. Labour seems determined to turn the United Kingdom into Fire-Sale Britain to finish off what the Tories started back in 2010. If they are serious in that the national budget is just like a kitchen budget, then cuts could be made. How about giving Trident the chop? Billions saved right there. And selling off one of those two carriers and using the money to buy smaller ships instead. And no more billions to the Ukraine. But of course the government – Labour & Tory – will cry out that these are vital necessities and cannot be touched.
Who would buy those vessels that repeatedly had to be towed back to port shortly after departing from it because their propulsion system keeps breaking down, and therefore have spent more time in the repair dock than sailing?
The BNE article is worth perusing:
“Some 70% reported having trouble finding staff. Almost half (47%) noted that the lack of staff is forcing them to discontinue some of their offering. .. . .The unemployment rate for those aged 15-70 will be 18.2% against the previously forecasted 18.7%.”
Obviously a massive skills mismatch. I wonder how much if this is due to Ukrainians fleeing to Europe (I assume the survey results do not reflect territories where people would flee to Russia) or if due to conscription. If the former, those workers do not seem particularly likely to return even if the war ends tomorrow. A third possibility is people hiding in neighbors’ basements to avoid conscription.
>Latin American leaders react with mixed responses to Venezuela election results
snip
Does earlier mean before the election? Stop the insidious sanctions against Venezuela and see what happens. (hint: they’ll be a functioning country). Crikey!
>Apple falls: iPhone maker out of China’s top 5 as Huawei ascends
I think most Americans are oblivious to just how much China has leaped ahead in technology. Apple is iconic in terms of introducing a product that you could say significantly changed human behavior and one’s Umwelt. All that we are given are stories about problems in Chinese real estates, debt, population, and political orientation viz U.S. foreign policy. Imagine instead if we were offered a steady diet of stories on how China is successfully transitioning to EV, how their product development, and yes innovation, is leaving the U.S. in the technological dust bin of history. Maybe instead of submitting to the MIC propping up our industrial base, we would demand a different allocation of resources to serve humanity better, I know, a wild dream.
https://www.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/article/3271994/apple-falls-iphone-maker-out-chinas-top-5-huawei-ascends?module=top_story&pgtype=section
https://youtu.be/xEixW-H1_WE?si=1zD-FtUNbNicttlj
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/03/11/ukraine-russia-war-news-latest-zelensky-pope-white-flag/
“Twelve Ukrainian pilots are expected to be ready to fly F-16s in combat by this summer,”
In a couple of months the will write: “And then there were none”.
Re Daily Mail–Jolly, the Olympic opener honcho, now says the controversial segment was not meant to parody Leonardo’s painting at all but art experts aren’t buying it.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/28/sports/olympics-opening-ceremony-last-supper-paris.html
Maybe Macron can blame it all on the Russians.
Re Venezuela–So the just finished election is only “controversial” because Maduro won?
Pretty much. The West can’t handle a country where leaders give people things like bricks and bread.
It’s only “controversial” when the regime-change operation does not work.
> Macro problems on the horizon Splash 247
>> The graph above (made with data from the FDIC) shows the level of unrealised profits or losses of US banks, in billions of dollars. It shows a massive increase of unrealised losses compared to 2008: 550 versus 50 or 11 times more.
Exsqueeze me, I’m a widdle mouse when it comes to this stuff, does this mean that the last two years losses are ten times 2008 but are just sitting on the books, ‘just paper losses’?
Should we be nervous?
Dark fleet additions see Cook Islands become a top 30 flag Splash 247
Indian oil importers’ thirst for Russian crude drives dark fleet demand Seatrade Maritime News
Does the “dark fleet” means that it only sails at night, or that the ships are painted in black, or that it’s owned by Sauron himself, or it’s just one of the racial slurs that US culture is brimful of? Is the Navy of Light going to send the Dark Fleet straight to the Davy Jones’s locker in the next Pirates of the Caribbean sequel?
Maybe the fleet is sweating the crude it’s carrying, so it would look dark to the bright journalist?
In any case, the subtitle should read “Western thirst for Russian crude and simultaneous moronic sanctions drives dark fleet”. Provided we’re even attempting some sense of truthy here, that is.
Location transponders turned off.
OK, is it just me, or does that RAND piece read like they’re admitting to be the twitter-addicted PMC vultures we know them to be, but in academic language to sound more serious? We can see the individual “forecasters” online activity; this shouldn’t be surprising.
A more interesting piece might analyze the correlation between “crowdsourced forecasting” (prevailing PMC social media zeitgeist) and policy decisions.
That the ruling class is on LinkedIn is absurd enough; that they’re pretending to be serious while doomscrolling is Kafaka-esque.
Re Secure Boot–the fourth page of the article contains a list of the compromised motherboards. Most seem to belong to a company called Gigabyte.
https://arstechnica.com/security/2024/07/secure-boot-is-completely-compromised-on-200-models-from-5-big-device-makers/4/
“Only ‘brute force’ can compel draft-age Ukrainians in Europe to go home and fight: ‘Sputnik Globe’ interview”
I’ve got an idea. Right now you have these snatch squads roaming around the Ukraine in vans kidnapping men off the street to be sent to the eastern front. So maybe Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski could authorize those very same vans to cross the border into Poland and snatch Ukrainians off the streets in places like Warsaw. Of course as they cross back over the border, Polish Customs will have to check that they have not accidentally snatched some Poles as well. But at the very least it will give the Polish people an idea of what is in store for them if their governments gets the country into a shooting war with Russia because, you know, European values.
I believe defending our values requires the Polish Customs to not be too strict about the nationality of the volunteers. We’re united in the cause, right?