Readers, I wish you an excellent Fourth of July! –lambert
Hippos can ‘glide through the air’ says zoo study BBC
On the Time Benjamin Franklin, American Show-Off, Jumped Naked Into the Thames Literary Hub
American’s First Holiday is the Fourth
Today in History: July 4, Declaration of Independence adopted in Philadelphia AP. Commentary:
70 songs for your Fourth of July playlist: Patriotic tunes from Lee Greenwood, Bruce Springsteen and more FOX. Not on the list (lyrics):
Lambert here: Even though X titled this song “4th of July,” I tend not to run it on this day, since the bitter lyrics are about a failing relationship told from the male perspective, and who wants that? That said, Springstein’s “Born in the U.S.A.” somehow became a “patriotic” classic, despite its lyrics; perhaps people are silently attuned to irony, moreso than I think; or they just play it loud. You can do either! Also, words in the refrain — “Talk a walk outside!” — are appropriate at any scale, from the darkened room to the geopolitical.
Americans swat away high fuel prices and gear up for record July 4 travels Al Jazeera
Will the lightning bug show go on? Kentucky Lantern
Climate
‘It’s a disaster’: Hurricane Beryl batters Jamaica BBC
We better rethink the way we live, and fast. Archaeology can help. ArcheoThoughts
Syndemics
Biomedicines: The Re-Emergence of Mpox – Old Illness, Modern Challenges Avian Flu Diary
China?
Chinese deaths in Philippines deal blow to business plans already frayed by maritime dispute South China Morning Post
Changes in U.S. Grand Strategy in the Indo-Pacific and China’s Countermeasures Monthly Review
Does China matter any more? Pearls and Irritations
Japan
Japanese Workers Among the Least Motivated in the World Nippon.com
Mynamar
ICJ allows 7 states to intervene in Gambia’s genocide case against Myanmar Anadolu Agency
The Koreas
Young Men Are Swinging Hard Right in Korea. It Could Be a Preview for America. Politico
India
Stampede in northern India echoes similar tragedies in recent history Anadolu Agency
Syraqistan
Israel plans to build 5,300 more settlement units, expanding illegal housing in West Bank Anadolu Agency
The Samson Option: Israel’s Plan to Nuke Its Opponents The Progressive
An Annihilation Discourse Has Taken Over Israel Haaretz
About that pier:
With the news the Gaza pier is once again out of action after moving a mere 6200 tons of aid over a month and a half, it'd be easy for me to write another post simply mocking the DoD for incompetence.
It'd also be boring. Let me walk you through what should have been done.⬇️
So… pic.twitter.com/khMPveDyUy— Armchair Warlord (@ArmchairW) July 2, 2024
European Disunion
Over 210 candidates withdraw from French elections in favor of stronger peer to counter far right Anadolu Agency. Commentary:
These are the latest projections for seats in the French Parliament post elections.
Le Pen's RN getting 190-220 of 577 seats, well short of the 289 needed to form a government.
Which means that, like I've been saying, the most likely result remains that no government can be… pic.twitter.com/TzI4Dlxabu
— Arnaud Bertrand (@RnaudBertrand) July 4, 2024
Dear Old Blighty
Are we past caring about democracy? Funding the Future
New Not-So-Cold War
Ray McGovern: Will Putin Attack Poland & the Baltics? Consortium News
Negotiated outcome most likely result of Russia-Ukraine war, major poll says Guardian
Europeans divided on whether accepting Ukraine into EU is “good idea” Ukrainska Pravda. And on NATO membership:
Wow, many of the foremost US international relations scholars – including Harvard's Stephen Walt, George Beebe (former director of CIA’s Russia analysis) and John Mearsheimer – have signed this open letter begging NATO not to move Ukraine toward membership.
They warn it could… https://t.co/wWxBcMeB9w
— Arnaud Bertrand (@RnaudBertrand) July 4, 2024
* * * Notorious American journalist Carlson announces interview with Zelenskyy Ukrainska Pravda
* * * World Bank recognizes Russia as high income country TASS
Russian Government’s Oil Revenue Was Up Almost 50% in June Bloomberg
* * * Russia accuses Stolichnaya vodka producer of being an “extremist organisation”, moves to seize its Russian assets BNE Intellinews
The Great Game
How China and Russia Compete, and Cooperate, in Central Asia NYT
Beijing and Moscow Go From ‘No Limits’ Friendship to Frenemies in Russia’s Backyard WSJ
Talks with the Taliban – no women allowed BBC
Why the Mongolian President’s First State Visit to Uzbekistan Matters The Diplomat
Biden Administration
FTC Blocks Tempur Sealy, Mattress Firm’s Deal on Competition Concerns WSJ
Silvergate Bank didn’t adequately monitor $1 trillion in crypto transactions, SEC says The Verge. The deck: “The FTX fallout continues with a new fraud suit.”
2024
Biden digs in while Democrats launch blame game as much of the party wishes he’d bow out FOX
Betting on Kamala Harris Politico
Trump’s Plan for NATO Is Emerging Politico
One Day that Might Save the World Pluralia
White House touts efforts to reduce gas prices ahead of July 4 travel blitz The Hill
The Supremes
What could the Supreme Court’s immunity ruling mean for US foreign policy? Al Jazeera
Digital Watch
Cloudflare debuts one-click nuke of web-scraping AI The Register
Sports Desk
WWE setting records at arenas and stadiums as popularity soars in 2024 FOX
Realignment and Legitimacy
Dan Davies Explains Why Accountability Sinks Are Everywhere Now Bloomberg. The deck: “And how the world lost its mind.”
Imperial Collapse Watch
The Two Hands Of White Empire Indi.ca. Handy map:
2 injured, 1 missing after explosion at Arkansas defense weapons plant ABC
US Army: We want to absorb private-sector AI ‘as fast as y’all are building them’ The Register. Commentary (long):
The US Army released a white paper a few months ago laying out their latest reorganization, in which they plan to cut a net 24,000 positions out of the force structure.
Let's walk through it.
First of all, it's not a pure cut: the Army is adding 8,000 jobs and cutting 32,000.⬇️… pic.twitter.com/rfga2LzlnX
— Armchair Warlord (@ArmchairW) July 4, 2024
When RAND Made Magic in Santa Monica Asterisk
Class Warfare
US Continuing Jobless Claims Increase for a Ninth Straight Week Bloomberg
Raids Find Luxury Handbags Being Made by Exploited Workers in Italy WSJ
Systems: How the Ultra-Wealthy Think About Money Anil Dash
The Hustle of Financial Domination Susannah Breslin
Another Boxship Loses Power in Baltimore’s Harbor Maritime Executive
Antidote du jour (KetaDesign):
See yesterday’s Links and Antidote du Jour here
196 comments
Comments are closed.
I prefer James Taylor . . .
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jp8C5tpSB88
An Independence Day music thread! Like old days. Son Volt, Highways and Cigarettes.
I’ve got to go with one from my salad days. Soundgarden – 4th of July.
Yay!
Drago didn’t win! Russian disinformation! (RIP Carl Weathers): (3:58) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c5BL4RNFr58
(after Israel plans to nuke its adversaries)
Penderecki: Threnody for the Victims of Hiroshima
There are no electronic instruments or effects, only the traditional orchestra.
Krzysztof Penderecki, the late, great Polish Composer.
Music of the 22nd century (composed in 1961), he would later step back a century or two.
I find it somehow settling, but then, that is probably just me.
That Lee Greenwood song has the most profoundly depressing affect on me. It has an interesting history. Originally written to celebrate Reagan’s America, it has been trotted out and even re-released as an anthem whenever we need to “unite our country” behind our neocon war plans:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/God_Bless_the_U.S.A.
I’ve heard this song blasted at countless ball games, parties, and Fourth of July celebrations. But my most indelible memory is from a large reception for a friend of my wife held on a large military base at which the attendees, almost all soldiers getting ready to go to Iraq and their spouses, were belting out this song at the top of their lungs after several beers. The level of despair in such a situation is hard to describe. I’m sure Lee Greenwood was entirely sincere when he wrote this perfect tool for propaganda, as are most people who hear and sing it. That’s what makes it especially tragic.
“Notorious American journalist Carlson announces interview with Zelenskyy”
Hopefully Carlson did not hug Zelensky and thereby acquire the notorious Zelensky Curse. That is how Hungary’s Victor Orbán avoided it in his meeting with Zelensky the other day. If you disbelieve the fact that there is a Zelensky Curse, then right now I would invite you to ask Joe Biden, Rishi Sunak and Emmanuel Macron their feelings on the subject.
さて、予想通り、ゼレンスキーはカールソンにインタビューをさせることを拒否しました。
https://x.com/KyivIndependent/status/1808784771289317522
I apologize for accidentally posting in my native language.
The moderators must have been very confused.
Anyway… Happy Independence Day!
I hear the only cure is a naked plunge in the River Thames
After which you will need cures for all manner of waterborne diseases in the sewer that is the Thames.
Notorious? Not renowned, famous, acclaimed, respected, (or despised by elites – same thing)?
The Zelensky Curse only applies to those who support him and Project Ukraine. For those who do not, they are immune to the curse. Had Orban met Z to do a U-turn and publicly embrace him and Project Ukraine, Orban’s polling numbers would be tanking as we speak.
reminds me of the way the word ‘divisive’ is used. If a politician offers a choice other than the status quo, they are being divisive, even if a greater number of people would take that choice.
Interviewing after going through detectors for radiation, weapons, chemical substances and anything else potentially lethal?
When you are, or have been, on the interviewee’s hit list, precautions would be in order.
Alternative view: Z is getting more desperate to tell his story.
Serhii Nykyforov, Zelensky’s press secretary, already stated that Mr. Carlson is not on president’s schedule. And that Mr. Carlson should not trust his FSB handlers, or something to that effect.
Tucker didn’t have much to say to Putin. One wonders if he will allow Zelensky to spew his fantasy world view without immediate fact checking. The little green man just the other day was telling some journalist that the Russia/Ukraine kill ratio was something like ten to one, which is absurd and almost pure projection. He still wants Crimea back before talks even begin. We’ll see.
The kill ratio is believed to be about 10 to 1. But that ratio is describing the over 600,000 Ukes dead/missing vs. 65,000 Ruskies. Zelenskey mis-remembers numbers all the time.
He sad six to one, which is more or less real casualty ratio, just the other way around. It’s projection galore.
I think they faked Tucker and his booker out. Zelensky’s now denying any interview is scheduled.
Ah, that makes much more sense. Maybe Tucker will explain.
I think Carlson got a lot of push back from his anti communist right wing buddies. Probably the klan. When he said there were no Nazis in Ukraine it was to appease the racists His audience. Regardless of his recent change of heart where he pretends to want to only tell the truth. This guy has been a racist for a long time. He got a lot of attention for interviewing Putin. Lots of people could have done a better job, Oliver stones interview much better. I never listen to this idiot.
If you can link and/or reference to his racist pronouncements, I’d appreciate it. Never paid much attention to him until recently.
I did a Yandex search and came up with the following. It’s possible he’s changed his mind and acquired some wisdom in the interim.
In one segment from October 2008, the conservative personality called Iraq “a crappy place filled with a bunch of, you know, semiliterate primitive monkeys,” which is why it “wasn’t worth invading.” Two years earlier, he told the hosts that Iraqis should “just shut the fuck up and obey us.”
Carlson also questioned former President Obama’s race and said he would not have been president if he had been white.
“How is he black, for one thing? He has one white parent, one black parent,” Carlson said in 2006. Two years later, he added, “I don’t know how black he is, but I’m sure he’s a good basketball player, he says he is, anyway.”
“Everybody knows that Barack Obama would still be in the state Senate in Illinois if he were white,” Carlson said.
Earlier that year, in April, the men critiqued Michelle Obama, saying that she would be a “problem” for the new president because she came off as too black.
“She gets a little chicken-headed at times…she turns into a sister,” Bubba (“The Love Sponge”) said, to which Carlson repeated, “Turns into a sister.”
Carlson frequently demeaned immigrants and, in one 2006 clip, even lauded the idea of having a presidential candidate who owned being a “racist” and ran on the promise to protect the US against “Muslim lunatics.”
“‘It’s these lunatic Muslims who are behaving like animals, and I’m going to kill as many of them as I can if you elect me.’ If a Democrat were to say that, he would be elected king, OK?” Carlson said.
Later, regarding some alleged fight/encounter with “antifa” he saw in a video:
“Jumping a guy like that is dishonorable obviously. It’s not how white men fight.”
Would you link and/or reference the racist remarks that Tucker has made?
Negotiated outcome most likely result of Russia-Ukraine war, major poll says The Guardian’s security apparatus masters can dream like anyone else. The lede is the punchline, In thinktank’s survey of 15 European countries, few respondents believe Ukraine can secure an outright victory. No kidding.
Those poll results from the Ukraine sounded a bit suspect. Either they are that deluded or else the poll questions were being given to members of the public by a member of the Azov brigade. A negotiated outcome? I do believe that the only sort of negotiated outcome will be like that signed aboard the USS Missouri in Tokyo Bay back in ’45. Hey, you think that old Joe will lend the Russians the USS Missouri for a signing ceremony in Sevastopol harbour? Be a bit of good will after all those missiles and the like-
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_Instrument_of_Surrender
Odessa harbor
Perfect.
Nah. It has to be a train. Putin made all the western leaders take train to Kiev, and Zelensky gang will be running away on one.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compi%C3%A8gne_Wagon
Remember that when those sources poll the Ukrainians population, they are not assessing the opinions of anyone in Russian controlled territory. So, all of the Donetsk and Lugansk, Crimea, Mariupol, etc. are by definition excluded. They start off their polls with an amazing amount of selection and confirmation bias. Take this poll from a while back, where 43% of respondents stated they believe the Ukraine has a Naughtzi problem. The only person I heard discuss that on western accessible media was Lev Golinkin. Otherwise, people in media just disavowed him as a hopelessly stupid Putin lover.
So I don’t consider any result of any poll that claims to represent Ukrainian opinion as accurate. I just reflect on the source and consider what message they’re trying to send the western audience.
I struggled to enjoy the tales of Franklin’s aquatic antics on account of my horror at what I imagine to be the sanitary conditions of the Thames in London in 1726.
You might perhaps more enjoy the Archdruid’s take on Wagner and pre-Marxist socialism:
The Nibelung’s Ring: Prelude
> [Bakunin] and Richard Wagner were close friends, and they fought side by side on the barricades during the failed European revolutions of 1848-1849.
See also Shaw’s The Perfect Wagnerite.
That was, as usual, a fun read. I became acquainted with Feuerbach in an entirely different context: a seminary trying to teach me how evil/wrong he was. In that case, it was another of his conceits, the idea that human religion usually projects humans into some kind of omniscient and omnipotent role. YHWH, of course, makes a prime example.
That seems to me an astute insight, so I’m less inclined to throw Herr Feuerbach under the bus. I’m also less inclined to join Greer and Dreher in finding the fault of the Sixties in those who advocated diverting from the course of materialism and consumption, especially of the conspicuous variety. The focus of both seems to be with the sexual aspects of the Sixties, and both may have points, but the Sixties were also about humanity’s relationship to Nature, and on that count, the hippies and sorta hippies like Donella Meadows understood things far better than their peers and elders.
Greer’s a fine critic of our current civilization, as Kunstler has been for most of his career. I’m less convinced of the former’s tracing of the history of our disease and the latter’s focus on what’s important in today’s politics.
But they’re both fun to read.
It may not have been as bad as it later became during the more populated 19th century.
Anyway that’s a fun link. A recently read book about Captain Cook’s third voyage said that the reason sailors of the time didn’t know how to swim was the attitude that if your ship goes down swimming would just prolong the agony.
Drowning is always preferable to a shark bite.
World Bank recognizes Russia as high income country TASS
“Go East, young man, go East…”
Affordable housing and cars/transportation, decent if not perfect healthcare, labor shortage, rising wages, affordable food and living. I told co-workers that if I were young again, I’d explore the possibility of moving to Russia to start my life and build a home. They dismissed my idea because Russia poor except maybe St. Petersburg.
Russia may be in a position to offer those in Ukraine devasted and sick of war, a better life and future in Russia than in Ukraine/The West. Now might be a time for the Kremlin to ponder and implement the power of carrots over sticks.
“Don’t delay… Winter is coming”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UUyFa9lyw1I (52 secs)
When the SMO began in 2022 a Russian emigre, Sergei, was a sometime NC commenter. I responded to one of his wistful comments that Putin has a vision for a victorious and ascendant Fatherland. And that he should return to his homeland to support that vision. Your link should find him.
I would suggest that Russia give all the Russian speaking peoples of the Baltic States presently being treated as second class citizens aid and a starting package if they will migrate to Siberia
At least one of the Baltic States is kicking out old age pensioners because they never learned the local language and cannot pass the language test being imposed on them, even though they have lived their entire life in that country. But hey, European values, amiright?
Well, according to Mrs. Zakharova, Russia has already allocated funds for housing and pensions for these refugees. Not in Siberia, though, but as close to the border as possible, so that they can stay close to their families.
I can only assume that if Russians and Russian-speaking population left the Baltics, at least Latvia and Estonia would be in deep poo-poo – 25% and 24% of the population belonging to the said segment. They probably wouldn’t have enough people left to man all those bunkers they brag about building on the border…
And those left over were liberated from serfdom by the enlightenment of the very people they’re kicking out. Ironic, isn’t it.
The parts of Siberia that aren’t aflame? Russia declares state of emergency in two regions due to forest fires, and High carbon emissions from wildfires in Russian Arctic.
Well if you take a look at the lead at today’s The Big Picture website, apparently there are quite a few people in this world that are migrating to Russia. How can that be, I thought they are the evil ones… sarc off now
https://ritholtz.com/
I thought they have no money and survive on beets. I’ve this nagging feeling about my “public education”.
I thought they have no beets and survive on beatings.
…which will continue until morale improves /s
I saw a clip of a Russian eating a raw onion like an apple. If I had a bucket list, Man’pupunёr in the snow would be at the top: https://tonyface.blogspot.com/2017/10/manpupunr_29.html
And, most dear actors, eat no onions nor garlic, for
we are to utter sweet breath, and I do not doubt but
to hear them say it is a sweet comedy. No more
words. Away! Go, away!
>No, UK weather is not being manipulated – BBC
Oh, thank goodness that the BBC set me straight. I was worried that what I was seeing/documenting with my own eyes was drawing a different conclusion. Since the BBC is telling me the truth about Gaza and Ukraine, they wouldn’t lie to me about geoengineering would they?
The BBC notes:
Since January, mentions of #GeoEngineering on X more than doubled worldwide, compared with the last six months of 2023.
I think this explains BBC’s motive for writing this article: More and more people are uploading pictures of the sky turning a sickly dull gray after the sky is streaked with whatever and on the next day or two, perfectly blue. No correlation with commercial flight traffic, none. Is it private jets, military aircraft? I don’t know…I do know that the sky going from blue to a hazy gray is due to man-made factors and I don’t think it is an epiphenomena, though I can’t be completely sure.
Obviously, those streaks in the sky are cheap fakes! /s
They’re going to charge rents for the air you breathe (every breath you take) in some way and are going to get agreement by any means necessary. That’s like the ultimate in rentierism.
Just spitballin’….
Another Boxship Loses Power in Baltimore’s Harbor, Short and well worth a read. I pretty much want to quote the whole thing piecemeal. One has to wonder how many near things like this have occurred. More, Bellavia was the latest of three foreign-flag, deep-draft ships that reported a loss or reduction in power in the Baltimore region since the Dali incident in March, the Coast Guard told the Baltimore Sun. The paper has tallied more than 40 ships that lost propulsion, power or steering in Maryland’s waterways over the last three years, illustrating the relative frequency of “dark-ship” incidents in an area with thousands of vessel transits per year. Oh.
Considering the cost of what happens when things go wrong when those boxships lose power, perhaps it would be wise for Baltimore to assign two tugboats to escort ships in and out of the harbour to at least past where that bridge was. Call it an insurance policy and it is not like they cannot do other duties when not in use.
One would think this the obvious means of preventing own goals like the Key Bridge. I guess there’s not much bridge left to take out.
First they* need to appoint an intergovernmental blue ribbon commission to study the matter, with, uh, appropriate representation.
Next, upon review of drafts, the spotlight of that Congressional oversight committee, where
porkadded resources may be brought to the fore.Add in some love for the under-represented constituencies such as the tugboat captain’s benevolent society, the harborside dining association and the Ft. McHenry Junior Ranger Retiree Fund.
Finally, provide parking spaces for the committee representatives, to include those necessary, nay, vital car chargers.
With the right finesse, many Cabinet Secretaries will have
trophiesaccolades.*They, undefined, on a need-to-know basis.
In other words, the members of such a Congressional oversight committee would arrive in Baltimore and would wave their hands in the general direction of Baltimore harbour from their motorcade on their way to the local knocking shop.
Or just move the damn port to the other side of the bridge.
The NTSB makes an immediate and very thorough study, makes excellent recommendations to congress for moving forward where it is duly ignored. I think this is actually how it (doesn’t) works. And don’t cuss out the NTSB. They seem to be doing what they should be.
Should we name the area ‘The Baltimore Triangle’?
> We better rethink the way we live, and fast. Archaeology can help. ArcheoThoughts
>> Because we are adapted to stability, our social systems are fundamentally conservative.
This is an excellent point, and goes well with Aurelian’s recent The Politics of Exhaustion (hat tip Kouros).
“The Hustle of Financial Domination” Susannah Breslin
I’ve said this is a BDSM economy…
But a few things about the contradictions in the article:
“In financial domination, some women of color get low-balled by their mostly-white clientele and some leverage their race to increase their revenue…”
Doesn’t look like they are not engaging in financial domination.
And it seems like a stretch to call it some new category for a dominatrix. Just sounds like ones who simply have some high paying customers.
And again, ultimately, who really has the power?
I was just thinking …a real financial dominatrix marries you, divorces you, and takes half (or more).
Where your ex-partner gets the gold mine and you get the shaft.
Photos, or it didn’t happen.
The catch phrase of all servicers.
With the new AI resources available to all comers, discerning shoppers are carrying air tags and similar to prove their location, in case asked under oath about where-, who-, why-, what- and when-abouts. /s
The Twitter thread on changes in US ground forces structure is an interesting read. The changes are being driven not by desired capabilities (the capabilities are being diminished by the changes) but by constraints on available manpower resources.
It reminds me a bit of the reorganization of ground forces structure in the WWII German army in the later stages of the war, to try to stretch limited manpower further.
I have the impression that “population health” is part of the recruitment shortfall problem. I wonder whether there is anyone in the Department of Defense who is concerned about US population health (if only on account of its consequences for the maintenance of Empire) and is advocating for policies that might improve that.
Army manpower, such a simple solution. I can see the recruitment ad now.
Looking at you Mr. Recent Migrant, want the fastest path to citizenship imaginable? Join the ARMY!! Besides solving our manpower needs in the fields of agriculture, our slaughterhouses and kitchens across the Good Ole USA, you too can see new places and participate in killing and blowing shit up around the world. Women too by the way if we’re going all equal opportunity.
While we’re at it, let’s clean out our prisons…
Sarcasm off but honestly, is this such a stretch of the imagination?
Isn’t using more and more of ‘foreign’ troops one of the basic signs of the end game of an empire being played out. The phase when the center is more and more dependent on the periphery to control the periphery just before the collapse…
An eye-opening read. I think the US army realizes that its recruiting problem won’t be solved anytime soon, and so it is choosing to make lemonade because only lemons are available. As Rummy said, you go to war with the army you have. I like your comparison with the Volksgrenadier divisions.
“I wonder whether there is anyone in the Department of Defense who is concerned about US population health”: undoubtedly this is a major concern, but I have trouble imagining what the Pentagon can do to improve this.
The M10 Booker light tank (a shiny new wunderwaffe!) weighs in at 42 tons, but with a smaller 105mm main gun (and still no automatic loader) and a $12m price tag. A big juicy target to aim at without sufficient firepower and armor to survive = a battlefield bulls-eye. The light tank concept has never worked before (e.g., the M551 Sheridan), so I’m puzzled as to why the Pentagon thinks this will work on a modern battlefield saturated with cheap drones and ATGMs.
I haven’t seen the army white paper; it would be interesting to see what plans exist for integrating drones and robots into force structures. Armchair Warlord doesn’t mention them. Makes me wonder.
Amazing to see how US military spending goes up and up, but active duty personnel goes down and down. The active-duty army is barely above 450k nowadays. Some interesting data and charts:
https://usafacts.org/articles/how-many-people-are-in-the-us-military-a-demographic-overview/
I think M10 is supposed to be more akin to assault gun, not light tank. It’s just that neither media nor most of the military get the concept. In 1930’s the Germans made sure Stug crews came from the artillery, not the budding panzer corps, to assert that they were to support infantry, not dash trough the lines.
I kinda get the resurrection of the idea of infantry support tank slash assault gun, especially since war in Ukraine has “downgraded” pretty much all tanks to this role – Russians have been arming divisional heavy machine gun companies with T-62 tanks for this purpose.
What is wrong with M10 is that it’s about as heavy as T-90 and 5 times more expensive, when it should be much lighter and way, way much cheaper. It should find the sweet spot of being cheap enough to replace losses at a predictable rate while good enough for the crew to survive an enemy hit (with high probability). Other than that, it has to be able to haul a huge gun within line-of-sight of the enemy positions and have a decent rate of fire to blast away. One would think a heavy mortar/ low pressure gun with auto-loader would be optimal for delivering quickly a lot of shells out to 3000 meters.
I’m pretty sure this is the US army white paper referenced above:
https://cascom.army.mil/asrp/build/files/Sustaining%20Army%202030_White%20Paper_01%20Oct%202023_Final.pdf
A fun read! This quote from page 18 is a good example of its over-confident tone: “As the world’s pre-eminent land power, we can deploy further, faster, and in greater strength than any other army on earth.” Oh my, the hubris…..
I think M10 is a solution looking for a problem. No one gets it’s concept, because there is none. They made what they could, with what they had, and are now trying to sell it for whatever they can (light tank, assault gun, tactical accessory thingamajig).
I would call it a fire support vehicle that is overweight, or undergunned, or both. If it was lighter, it would be tracked equivalent of Stryker 105 mm M1128 Mobile Gun System. If it was lighter, and had a bigger gun, it might have been someting like 2S25 Sprut-SD.
BMP-3 and BMD-4 have one of those. AMX-10 RC is close enough, with medium-pressure gun, sans autoloader. All of them tested in real combat.
The US makes arms for profit not for purpose.
Which often makes me wonder how we are able to sell so many. The Israelis have shown that the Patriot doesn’t work to spec, the F-35 is an expensive money sink, and our recent ships don’t do what they were (supposedly) designed to do. Why are countries like Norway, and even Turkiye, still buying them?
You are able to sell so many, because free market is anything but free. When Turkey bought S-400, it instantly got sanctioned. Can you imagine any other NATO country buying stuff from Russians? Australia was not even allowed to buy submarines from France.
Recent send-all-your-weapons-to-Zelensky event have emptied Europe from all Soviet legacy systems. Now all of those countries have to buy new stuff, that is USA approved.
>When RAND Made Magic in Santa Monica – Asterisk
Arnold, along with General Curtis LeMay — famous for his “strategic bombing” of Japan, which killed hundreds of thousands of civilians — scrounged up $10 million from unspent war funds to provide the project’s seed money.
Yeah, that’s right, same guy who was lampooned in Stanley Kubrick’s Dr. Strangelove is the man who was instrumental in launching the Rand Corp. That’s an interesting data point.
I’m not sure I agree with below sentence in the concluding paragraph. The money is still rolling in, there is no limit to MIC spending when “our” national security interest is involved or where we fear falling behind our “enemies.”
We no longer live in an era when branches of the U.S. military can cut massive blank checks to think tanks in the interests of beating the Soviets.
Fail Safe which came out at the same time as Strangelove starts out with a Rand-like character describing our supposedly fool proof nuclear system. Then, when the worst nevertheless happens and an American bomber destroys Moscow, president Henry Fonda’s only solution is to also destroy New York to keep the peace.
This Sidney Lumet film is an excellent movie but was set aside to limited distribution by the owners of Strangelove, concerned about the similar story lines. We all love the Kubrick but for people at the time (me for example) his film was a bitter joke at best. And it was for Kubrick too probably. If there’s a thread through his output antiwar would be it.
Don’t forget “Seven Days in May”. Slightly different premise in that the military coup is due to the president supporting nuclear disarmament. The movie came out around the same time as the two mentioned above.
I had to note that overall they were a very successful organization for over two decades. Right up until 1967 when they decided to put an economist in charge of RAND. And that is when the wheels started to come off. Odd that.
“Young Men Are Swinging Hard Right in Korea. It Could Be a Preview for America.” Politico
A good number of youth in America do not have the same definition for men and women.
At any rate, there are global reactionaries trying to put a the genie back knto the bottle on many things.
I just have this to say: People do not turn their backs on institutions that benefit their lives.
I’m not going to read Politico this morning, thank you, but feel it’s worth mentioning “hard right” has been doing a lot of work recently.
Indeed. It’s a term that’s getting quite the work out.
These days it means anyone slightly more conservative than the speaker using “hard right.”
same story as the rest of the developed western world…
young men do want want to go into “dirty job” work (eg, shipbuilding welder) because the wages are suppressed (eg, SE Asians giving work permits to work in the shipuilding industry while living at company dorms like firefighters).
Amazing that for literal centuries, “the Left” focused on wages and mal-distribution of wealth as the original sin…now it’s something cultural like misogyny or something.
‘Tis a mystery.
“People do not turn their backs on institutions that benefit their lives.”
Right, left, or center…take heed.
Example: if religious institutions were benefiting people’s lives, church attendance wouldn’t be dropping.
“the Left” focused on wages and mal-distribution of wealth as the original sin…now it’s something cultural like misogyny or something.
“The Left”? What “Left”? I see no left. Haven’t any sign of it for Lo, these thirty years…
Does this mean South Korea is on track to join North Korea?
I would say (not to diminish the problems outlined in Politico), that this is only half the story. The bigger problem is that there is masses of systemic sexism in Korea, down to the family level.
Politico also fails to point out that the Left party in Korea was mired in a corruption scandal, at the time of the election. And it doesn’t to point out that Yoon is an extremely unpopular President, and his party lost a lot of seats at the last (recent) Parliamentary elections and his policies now can’t get through Parliament since the opposition has a majority.
Would like to see the press tell more than half the story.
Horowitz plays The Stars and Stripes Forever. utube. ~4+ minutes.
Vladimir Horowitz plays The Stars and Stripes Forever as a final encore 1948
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rAZ2I08CkP8
I’m enjoying the photographic image displayed on this video. Anyone know where this is? I’m seeing some empty seats in the dignitaries section, center first balcony.
Carnegie Hall
Get out. I once worked in that building. Thanks.
I bet that was fun.
I believe it is or once was customary for important dignitaries, aka presidents and such, to leave after the main performance and before the encores for security reasons.
Well about that music list, if #70 is Cole Swindell’s You Should be here, I would like to add: Who You’d Be Today, by Kenny Chesney About a kid cut down too soon in life and wondering how they might have turned out in life.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UnmQRolJ4IM
As far as July 4th songs, I’ll nominate this version of Tracey Chapman’s Talking ‘Bout a Revolution from a Nelson Mandela Tribute concert way back when in 1988.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wGmHpn-prd0
As for revolution songs, I’ll throw in “Revolution Calling” by Queensryche from the album, Operation Mindcrime. 28 +/- years ago but still has a bit of relevance. Maybe ahead of its time even.
But now the holy dollar rules everybody’s lives. I used to trust the media to tell me the truth, tell me the truth…”Who do you trust when everyone is a crook
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T4ig-mqgD4w
Happy 4th
“I used to say the Pledge of Allegiance
Until they beat me bloody down at the station
They haven’t got a word out of me since.
I got a billion years probation.”
The American Ruse MC 5.
I’d give two thumbs up to the Revolution Calling suggestion. Cutting edge band from Seattle before that became an actual thing; I believe the album was released in 1988. The entirety of that concept album is worthy to suggest. Politics, religion and a little PK Dick included…”I walk in surveillance, under the camera eye searching high and low”.
Eyes of a Stranger is the best track off that album, my two cents. Their follow up album, Empire, was released in 1990 and every song is worthy to hear.
“Opinion | An Annihilation Discourse Has Taken Over Israel”
Of course if Israel was crazy enough to do this, pretty soon it would cease to exist, especially when it is common knowledge that Iran has no nukes. Pakistan has promised that it would use it’s nukes if Israel did this and you can bet that Hezbollah would launch the tens of thousands of missiles that it has to turn Israel into Greater Gaza. And then there is the matter of the winds carrying radioactive particles to other countries from those nuclear strikes. Several days after Chernobyl, they were dumping milk in America. Arab governments that tried to remain neutral would fall. I would actually expect it to be open season on anything Israeli around the world whether it be individuals, companies, ships, buildings or whatever because of this. At the very least there would be a total embargo on the country and there is nothing that Joe Biden could do to stop it.
There was a time I pointed to Benny Morris books in support of the claim that Israel was engaging in ethnic cleansing early on in its founding. I thought the guy was against ethnic cleansing, critical of it? I thought he was a historian? I remember 20ish years ago in conversations I pointed colleagues to his works, I think I even lent someone my copy of a text. Now I wonder, what the hell happened to that guy or did I miss something? Feels a bit like I might have at one point been inadvertently recommending Mein Kampf, I’m ashamed, embarrassed.
Don’t think so. Pretty sure there are more Jews in America alone than in Israel, certainly much more money. That influence would continue, and the media would easily spin it all in Israel’s favor somehow. After all, they just nuked a bunch of heathen Arabs. Our End of the World Christian population would love that. Many Israelis are leaving by the day to protection under the western nations military umbrella, and, who knows, would soon hatch a new plan for another “homeland”. Maybe, um, upstate NY? Catskills?
Saturday Night Live skit, one year ago. This aged well. / ;) utube, ~3+ minutes.
Horror Movie Trailer – SNL
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=46WZfo1yFkI
Holy hell, that’s hilarious. Thanks for that!
Brilliant, must-watch.
Jeez, what ever happened to Beto?
Haha. I clicked on the link and (natch) an ad popped up:
OBAMA: five bucks! [BRB clicks through]
Democrat money being pissed away.
It’s pretty good but, as is typical of SNL, it can’t get the joke quite right. These movies trailers are nothing if not formulaic—that’s the basis of the gag. We all know the rhythm—and this one goes on for too long. (It’s 3 minutes 10 seconds and most movie trailers are between 2 and 2½ minutes.)
If I were a betting man…
Biden drops out of presidential race?
https://polymarket.com/event/will-biden-drop-out-of-presidential-race?tid=1720097640200
Currently at 60%
Not all agree, though for interesting reasons:
“100% reality resistant cult” — sounds about right.
Presidential Election Winner 2024
https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1720097896537
Trump: 63% Harris: 14% Biden: 12%
So the market (btw, $223 million bux riding on this) sees Kamala as having a better chance than Joe.
Comment:
That’s about the state of much of the world’s governance: a mix of reality resistant cults and people trying to stay out of jail.
Projections of seats in the French National Assembly are still to be taken with a pinch of salt, albeit a smaller one than similar projections a week ago since we now have the definitive list of candidates. But the great uncertainty is still whether the electorate will do its duty to its leaders, and vote for another party from the one they voted for in the first round, and indeed whether they will do so consistently.
I’ve said for some time that I don’t think any party will emerge with an overall majority, and that this applies particularly to the RN, which has a limited presence in many parts of the country, and a number of somewhat unattractive candidates. So Bertrand is quite right, in my view, to foresee a political crisis and the impossibility of forming a government by the normal processes. But what happens then?
Well, look at it from the other way round. The RN have said they will not form a minority government, although there are theoretical circumstances under which they could cobble together a majority. But if they did so, the entire French political establishment would be out in the cold. No Ministerial posts, no sinecures running useless government agencies, no chance to put their friends and family in good jobs, no saturation media coverage every time they cleared their throat, not much influence on anything …. So I fear that what we will see is an entirely cynical rallying of all the main non-RN parties, from Left to Right, against the RN, to preserve their status and their advantages. This will be presented as a “Republican Front” or something equally stupid, but in reality it will be a haphazard mutual support agreement to keep hold of the levers of power. It will be difficult, perhaps impossible, to bring off, but the likely political landscape probably rules out any other option succeeding either.
If this happens, I think there will be a backlash such as French politics hasn’t seen for generations. Not simply will the RN vote be furious, the NFP voters who voted out of something like socialist conviction will be incandescent too. At that point, get your body armour and your helmet out.
The best analysis I have seen on the causes of all of this is today’s editorial in Marianne by Natasha Polony. Your browser will translate it for you. There is a reckoning coming.
https://www.marianne.net/politique/natacha-polony-ces-elections-racontent-30-ans-de-deni-de-la-part-de-la-classe-politico-mediatique
From what you say, it sounds like the French political scene is going to become a blazing, dumpster fire for the next coupla years. The coalitions that I read about have no stability beyond the date of the election and it may be that France will become ungovernable to the extent that another general French election will have to be held. Macron well and truly screwed the pooch by calling this snap election and it will definitely not look good on his resume.
Resume? These people do not experience failure. Maybe he has no lucrative future in France, but, maybe he’ll join Sunak in California, or rise high in the EU club. There’s always foundation grifting and consulting. He’ll do fine.
Two words: Lord Cameron
Yes, indeed. As someone who is most sympathetic to les insoumises because of their old-school socialist policies, their calls to end the war in Ukraine (the second most pressing issue in the world right now), their calls for a ceasefire in Gaza (the most pressing issue in the world right now), I already feel betrayed by them getting into an alliance with the likes of Raphaël Glucksmann, who I think is worse than all the others. The NFP have already abandoned their calls for peace in Ukraine, instead vowing to support Ukraine whatever it takes, and watered down their calls for peace in Gaza, adopting instead the weasel-wording of a sustainable peace, which is what the US have been saying.
Second, even if their platform made me want to vote for it, I have long been disabused of the idea that we live in a democracy. To get anything done, they would to need take control of the institutions: the media, the army, the gendarmerie, the intelligence agencies, the banks (create a credible plan for withdrawing from the Euro), and most importantly, get the Americans out. Otherwise, an NFP win would set the left back in France more than Syriza did in Greece.
As it stands, my choice this sunday will be between the RN and LR. Cholera or malaria. I’m going to stay home.
Out of curiosity, why LR?
Probably because in the election ward where he resides, the only two candidates who got more that 12.5% of the votes in the first round are one from LR and one from RN — and they are therefore the only ones allowed on the ballot for the second round. As he says: he will stay home.
Presumably the other candidates in his seat withdrew?
the LR candidate is the incumbent and endorsed by the mayor. the NFP candidate withdrew. RN still came in first.
Many thanks, Aurelien / David and Vidimi.
Speaking of elections, for the first time in my life, despite being eligible since 1988, I may vote. There’s a chance of ousting the Tories after 100 years if there’s tactical voting in favour of Labour. I would prefer to vote Green.
My parents may do, too, not having voted since the EEC referendum of 1975.
The Tory vote was weighed around here.
I am curious CS. Is this because the Tories have won in your constituency for all these years?—
I wanted to go to Aurelien’s link to the article by Polony but subscription is needed. Yes apparently 1€ for two months but then goes to nearly 7€ monthly. What is happening in France is politically very important and my daughter will go to Paris for the next wto years and I would like to give her the best information possible.
Sorry abut that Ignacio, some of Marianne is free, and I didn’t check. That said, Marianne is a good bet if you subscribe to one single weekly magazine. I don’t by any means agree with everything, but its a deliberately “republican” and “sovereignist” magazine, to which I’ve subscribed for many years, and is pretty much outside the PMC bubble. They were more or less alone in foreseeing the rise of the RN, and the increasing divisions in the country.
Thank you, Ignacio.
Yes, the seat has been Tory since 1924.
For the fifty years before, the local landowner, a Rothschild, owned it for the Liberals.
Before then, the seat swung between the two parties.
I wish your daughter a fine stay in Paris.
“Dan Davies Explains Why Accountability Sinks Are Everywhere” Now Bloomberg.
It could get to the point where people don’t want to do much at all because everything seems like a rip-off and a hassle. How good is that for an economy?
“It could get to the point where people don’t want to do much at all because everything seems like a rip-off and a hassle.”
Don’t look now, but I think we’re already there.
Our companies have consistently selected workers for stability, repetition, and hyper specialization.
And none of that works in a volatile period where adaptability, creativity, and generalized skill sets are demanded.
Basically your workers know the current way of doing things isn’t what the environment/market demands (for example you can’t get a consistent product/build when your logistics network is volatile for quality, price, and timeliness) and…. they also know the companies can’t adapt without collapsing.
So we are all stuck saying some variation of “Its just how it is, I can’t make things change.” And you get less invested in your work the more you say that until its just all too absurd to sacrifice for.
I would add that corporations have become quite shameless in a lot of ways when it comes to deprive people from just rewards for their creative work. The Apple and Google tax on app developers, Amazon ripping off sellers in big ways (from multiple fees to piratically copying their products), Spotify paying not even peanuts to artists, benefits of intellectual property rights (notably patents) accruing to the firm employing the inventors, media companies taking away rights to various digital derivative works (e.g. voice or digital representation of actors, streaming rights), etc.
So why exert oneself only to see the fruits of one’s work being immediately robbed by a variety of greedy entities?
Near-perfect trash idea from an ex-Hillary aide. I’m sure these people have been bleating about deep-fakes for months; now they want to use them to pretend JB isn’t actually already dead.
HuffPo:
It’s Time For The Biden Campaign To Embrace AI
“AI-generated content can be tailored to highlight President Biden’s accomplishments, clearly articulate his policies, and present a consistent, compelling message. In an era where visual mediums and quick, digestible content dominate public perceptions, AI offers an opportunity for more effective communication. These AI-enhanced videos could ensure that the public does not make decisions about the future of our democracy based on an inconveniently timed cough, stray stutter, or healthy but hobbled walk “
Toldja Max Headroom is the next step. Or maybe it will be the great and powerful Oz before Toto pulls back the curtain
They can even get some number of intel spooks to proclaim he’s real
You had to know that this was coming, but it’s still a raging WTAF moment. The ruling class desperation and derangement is so pervasive as to be almost incomprehensible. On July 4, the “we had to destroy the village to save it” insanity becomes the only “feasible” operative reality.
“…moral and ethical…” Jeezus. H. Christ.
Damn, I was hoping they’d suggest training an LLM on Biden’s speeches and unleashing it on an unsuspecting world. Still, it might pair nicely with the “AI-enhanced videos” concept. Surely some Democrats can see this is an idea whose time has come?
I’d like to see a debate between Anthony Atamanuik and Maurizio Crozza. At least one could laugh while weeping.
There’s already been one for Kamala since 2019 and it’s awesome:
https://perchance.org/pgk4gv0c6p
Just a tip to anybody that plans on watching his upcoming interviews: listen with headphones as you watch.
One entry on my bingo card is definitely Trump and Biden both pulling out or dying and being replaced by AI-generated versions of themselves, in campaigns consisting exclusively of online and recorded media.
I was not being entirely serious about it when I first suggested it, but we’re definitely coming closer every day.
Japanese workers among the east motivated….
Turning Japanese I think I’m turning Japanese I really think so…. USA 7/4/2024 in not terribly inspiring to prompt much effort in any direction?
The amazing thing about that article was that there was nowhere in the world that had a majority of the workers enthused and committed. The best was 41%.
Trump being gracious in victory-
‘Collin Rugg
@CollinRugg
BREAKING: Leaked video shows Donald Trump saying he thinks Kamala Harris will be the Democrat nominee, says she is “so f**king bad.”
“She’s so bad. She’s so pathetic. She’s just so f**king bad.”
“How did I do with the debate the other night? I kicked that old, broken down pile of cr*p. He’s quitting the race.”
“I got him out the race, and that means we have Kamala. I think she’s going to be better. She’s so bad. She’s so pathetic. She’s just so f**king bad.”
“Can you imagine [Biden] with dealing with Putin and the president of China, who’s a fierce person? He’s a fierce man. Very tough guy.” ‘
https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/1808658559359725848 (40 sec video)
Show me the lie though
If anything will doom Trump, it is his lack of impulse control. There may be a time for his reality TV schtick, but it is not right now. The very best thing he could do for himself is just sit back and let the Biden/DNC disaster play out to its denouement, whatever it turns out to be. (Note: it goes without saying that this is NOT an expression of support for the orange man, just an analysis of tactics).
I agree. The debate was a perfect example. He should have left Biden talk as much as he could. What’s the old saying; Never interrupt your opponent while he is in the middle of making a mistake.
Trump started his excessive bragging and let Joe off the hook, maybe even helped him. He can’t help himself. He could have buried him and didn’t because he rambled too much, especially with unrelated BS.
When it came to foreign policy or the economy, someone like (no fans here I’m sure) *Ron Paul would have buried Biden. Trump should have, could have, and failed. Nobody’s fault but his own. He was saved because Biden was so awful.
* I pick Ron Paul because I don’t see him as a typical politician, but a guy who is about policy more than optics (read BS). He knows the constitution, and in my opinion, his foreign policy is nowhere near neocon’ish.
“US Army: We want to absorb private-sector AI ‘as fast as y’all are building them” The Register
You only need to read the first paragraph. It’s a laugher:
“The US Army is keen to integrate commercial private-sector AI algorithms into its operations and it’s hoping industry can also figure out how to address the inevitable security concerns that will come from the move.”
That’s their “risk assessment” – as if security concerns are the only problem with the idea.
But “hope” reigns supreme in this “risk assessment.”
“…The Army, Bang said, was finally reaching a point where it had fully adopted modern software practices such as agile development and CI/CD – aka continuous integration and continuous delivery. With those practices virtually in place, the Army hopes it can use them with artificial intelligence to assist in data processing….”
I suppose they’ll train the AI on old war movies and Victory at Sea. One bullet, one man down. Doesn’t stress the ammo supply
Truly an extraordinary selection of Links today, Lambert! Many thanks!
https://x.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1808795261071937879
Arnaud Bertrand @RnaudBertrand
That’s a huge story in China right now, which won’t improve relations with the Philippines…
https://globaltimes.cn/page/202407/1315361.shtml *
What happened is that a Chinese national and a Chinese-American – both executives working in the medical industry – travelled together on June 20 on a business trip to the Philippines and were kidnapped.
The wife of one of the victims received a ransom demand for 5 million yuan ($687,435), which was negotiated down to 3 million yuan and they paid it. Despite this, both executives were still killed by the kidnappers who disappeared with the money.
I believe it’s the 3rd kidnapping case involving Chinese nationals in the Philippines over the last year.
* Concerns about security in Philippines rise after kidnapping
5:29 AM · Jul 4, 2024
Why are they targeting Chinese people? Why not American-American? Wouldn’t Americans be a more lucrative target? Does the fact they’re targeting the Chinese kind of raise the possibility state actors may be behind this, after all isn’t the US working overtime to try create division and discord with China everywhere (and strife, discord and division everywhere, in general)?
It might be there area where those were kidnaped are not areas tourist go to. They killed a lot of drug traffickers, perhaps this is the result.
Rethinking How We Live: Lessons from Anthropology
If you’ve not read this already, here’s a few tidbits to whet your appetite:
This is why the intertia – the lack of progress on climate change; it’s why we’re (generally) not adapting.
Adapting is hard work! Risky, expensive, squashed early adopters … it’s all bad news at first. Conservatism pays better, till the environment starts changing faster than our (atrophied) rate of adaptation.
What the article calls “algorithmic” I term “adaptive”. It’s a mind-set, and it only gains favor after conservatism fails spectacularly. Remember the inertia: 8 billion people, all that investment in existing facilities. Massive inertia. So, that likely means “spectacular fail” is a requirement, a prerequisite for real change.
So, the sooner we get whacked, but good, with the 2×4 of reality, the sooner the traversal from “stuck” to “adapting” happens.
Meantime, among those many that are currently capable of adaptation, there’s plenty to do. Once the 2×4 hits, the options re: adapting will probably get curtailed.
====
and happy Independence Day to all of you, everywhere.
For the U.S., independence was a time of new-course-setting, of extraction from a regime that didn’t suit our long-term goals. It was a moment of great cultural vigor, and high hopes. It was a moment of great risk.
Happy Independence Day.
I’m not liking either algorithmic or adaptive or even essentialist in this context. Algorithmic simply means pattern(able). The steps involved in creating a PBJ sandwich make a pattern, an algorithm, in that it’s repeatable, can be abstracted as a function or procedure. Where I have a problem with the above is we all know how to make PBJ sandwiches and have hundreds of other algorithmic patterns in our lives but doesn’t make us conservative, essentialist or even what I would consider adaptive. Although, adaptive would be the ability to write new algorithms or improve on existing, but again even an old fashioned traditionalist can do that, and traditions themselves can be improved or adapted (indeed, everything in our lives is). So it just seems a bit too simplistic an explanation.
Great rejoinder.
Maybe it’s more fruitful to identify the problem and the phenomena, and then later on select the terms/labels.
==========
I’ll try to define what it is we’re trying to achieve.
I say “we want adaptation to occur at or above the rate of environmental change”.
Is that happening, by your lights?
I say not.
Next: why not?
I assert that the core issue is the architecture of the human mind. We don’t like, and don’t do change until and unless we have to. (a lot of other animals behave this way as well).
I’m not talking about minor incremental change, I’m talking substantive, fundamental change. (altho even the little stuff flummoxes a lot of people).
Let me affirm: conservatism and change-seeking, as the two poles on the continuum, have their uses. The article says “conservatism / essentialist has been well-rewarded, and now it’s going to be well-punished”.
The challenge is to make the policy-change from conservatism to change-seeker at the right time and place, right?
And that’s my (personal) definition of “adaptive”. Move toward Conservative when appropriate, swing over to change-seeker when appropriate”.
Moreover, that policy-shift is really sticky; there’s enormous installed-plant (infrastructure, etc.), income-stream, social-standing etc. factors that create monstrous drag, and prevent timely adaptation (policy-shifting).
Hence the necessity of 2×4 whacks.
My world is tech so I come at this from a particular angle. Any technological change in the world is adopted because it marries form (idea) and function and is usable and inclusive for increasingly larger groups, including those previously excluded from a given solution or iteration. All technological advances from iphones to doorknobs persist and are successful because some earlier iteration was available only to a smaller group and is now available, inclusive and useful for larger groups.
Putting that framework to the problem of why environmental solutions aren’t adopted, I’d say because people can’t “fit” them in their thinking, worldview, or day to day, haven’t yet figured it out, or it’s not available to them. Or we can probably categorize people according to if they’re early adopters of an idea – which is to say whether they have greater risk tolerance, flexibility, curiosity, willingness to consider alternatives. So, adaptive = early adopter? Risk tolerant? At the same time, eventually the early adopters show the way for the holdouts, convert everyone else. People were afraid of elevators at one point, needed to be converted, same with escalators, cars, etc.
Convince everyone an environmental solution is an elevator? Gradually bring on board those afraid of elevators?
Well done, on several counts.
I think you’ve identified why I’m into product development.
To respond in more detail:
Yes, there’s an adoption sequence, and it’s led by the people with:
a. Enough motivation
b. Enough imagination to devise an alternative
c. Enough capacity to build the alternative, to test it, do what nec to meet needs of early-adopter customers, etc.
That’s all normal prod devel and mktg stuff. Except …
a. these “products” are trying to deliver the same (more or less) benefits of the existing set (our current prod processes and assoc infrastructure) _but_ they also have to not do env. damage, and or even fix the environment. That’s _way_ hard … or
b. the customers have to change their req’mts for the product, and accept lower _product_ “performance” (what they used to get/expect) in exchange for better environmental performance. Tough sell, given how humans tend to think. Getting over that bump is going to require a lot of re-acculturation, and that ain’t coming top-down, right?
More broadly, the “what’s different in the environmental response” game is:
a. The scale of the entrenched product(s). 200+ years of everything humans could put on the table delivered out our current production systems and assoc infrastructure. That’s enormous momentum
b. The (required) speed of incoming environmental change. It’s moving so fast (seems slow, but relative to adaptation rate, it’s a bullet train.
So, next maybe we ask “what’s it take to speed up the normal human adaptation rate?”
:)
Oops. item b above should be:
b. The speed of incoming environmental change. It’s moving so fast; it seems slow (architecture of human brain working against us), but relative to current human adaptation rate, it’s a bullet train.
== A fuse blew, had domestic commotion, had to rush. Air fryer, griddle and tortilla maker (another griddle) on same circuit. Hence the bobble on the reply.
====
Another point, Es s Ce Tera:
Sometimes its easy to ascribe all new prod development to the innovator. Yeah, they’re vital, but there’s a whole bunch of other important roles:
a. ID the problem. A lot of people are perfectly capable of doing that
b. Support the devel process. Invest, help out, provide resources… all manner of ways to resource a prod devel activity
c. Test the product. People that are _not_ part of the devel team need to be the ones to test. It’s easy to fall in love w/your own product, and you’re blind to its weaknesses
d. Now be early-adopter. Buy it, use it, even tho it ain’t perfect yet. Be a believer in the org / people / idea behind the product. Buy V1.0 even tho you know … there’s soon to be a V2.0.
e. Talk it up. Tell your friends. Show it off. Be proud of you own perspicacity.
Lot of roles to fill, and there’s millions of people right now that can fill those roles. Just … nobody’s asking them to do it right now.
We visited Mesa Verde NP first and then went to Chaco Canyon NM on initial visits there, and really you should do it the other way around, as Chaco Canyon was more or less in the open, 6 Great Houses each with hundreds of rooms, and paths to get there radiating out on say each hour of the clock, everything said Please Come here!
Mesa Verde on the other hand was hidden away in clever cliff dwellings built after Chaco Canyon was abandoned, you wouldn’t know they were there-Native Americans had to learn how to adapt to the new normal and in their case: climate change via drought and hostile invaders from the south.
This link suggesting adaptation to future climate will make hunter-gatherer nomads of Humankind seems a little facile in the context of the present world. This suggestion that climate adaptation will necessitate a return to roaming hunter-gathering ignores and assumes away a few too many problems. The climate may become more similar to the Holocene climate, but today’s Earth is not the same as the Holocene Earth. To hunt and gather requires wild animals and plants to hunt and gather. I doubt the Earth in the near-term of geologic-time, will offer the same bounty of wild animals and plants.
For me the word ‘adaptation’ connotes a much more gradual shift than the kind of transition I imagine Humankind faces. A Populace of eight billion and growing cannot survive as hunter-gathers on a used-up, polluted, and poisoned Earth. Populations that exceed the carrying capacity of the landscape cannot afford to move to slightly less favorable locations when they have to instead of killing each other. The World that remains ‘After’ will probably leave sections of Earth ruined in the near-term of geologic-time.
I am very skeptical of the concepts of a cultural place-based identity versus an adaptation-based identity. Hunter-gathers moved around several places as seasons changed but tended to range within the same regions from season-to-season. Like the movements of game the movements of jobs compel modern humans to live a nomadic existence. The modern ties of place are more accurately portrayed as ties of family and friends — social ties, and modern Society is hard at work weakening and destroying these ties. The u.s. is already far along in its deconstruction of the social fabric. Like Holocene humans the modern Populace must constantly adapt to the rapidly changing demands of the dying political-economies as those economies thrash and struggle through their long suffering agony of decline. Traditions represent the basic conservatism of avoiding dangerous, potentially fatal risks. As the calculus of risk shifts Humankind alters its traditions, whether the Populace consists of noble savages or tough survivors of the poly-crisis crucible.
I regard the contrast drawn between essentialist traditions and algorithmic traditions as artificial. Societies old and current have always both highly valued and harshly discouraged innovation and innovators. Humankind has always had its maverick innovators and dreamers, along with its conservative inflexible traditionalists. That is summed up in the old meme that the young are going to the dogs.
I remain confident that Humankind is as adaptable as ever and with any luck and a lot of hard work we may manage to save a greater wealth of Knowledge than that available to any past Populace to help us adapt to the new Climate and the new resource bound Earth. One problem with this notion is the high degree of specialization of Knowledge that accompanied the growth of Knowledge and ‘rationalization’ of Industry. There may be many times fewer members of the Populace able to maintain and disseminate Knowledge and skills.
Passing through the crucible remains the same terrifying threat.
“Trump’s Plan for NATO Is Emerging.”
Trying to read between the lines, I have the impression that Trump’s idea is to throw the defence of Europe onto those European NATO nations. But that this would be done after he wraps up the war in the Ukraine. He may think that he holds all the cards over Russia but I doubt that the Russians will be impressed with Trump. They weren’t the first time around and they will certainly not give back land that they regard as sovereign Russian territory. Nor will they allow a Ukraine to exist that will re-arm and create another war in only a few years time. Too much blood and treasure has been spent for that. But the main point of all this is to shift more of the US military to the Pacific to be ready to confront China which I think that Trump is on board with.
I think he has also said that he will pressure Z into accepting a settlement.
Thing is by next January everybody including the Europeans may be willing to put an end to it. They can then blame it on Trump.
If he were thinking like someone in business, which he likes to think he does, he would not be attached to particular outcomes, would be disinterested, uninvested and decidedly not loyal to anything or anyone, would be purely about achieving consensus (“socializing the solution”) between adversarial business partners, business partners always being assumed to be adversarial.
When I think of it, that willingness to have the Russians at the same table, as partners, means he’s more likely to achieve some result than anyone else, and his being a moron wouldn’t even matter to the outcome, might even be advantageous to a solution.
So if Trump wins, assume the Russians and Ukrainians will be at the same table (and the blob, UK, EU, NATO, CIA, etc., will decidedly not be), now what?
Hmmm…so the NATO summit is coming up next week. I assumed that would be a big enough deal for Biden to have to spend his time preparing for and do interviews AFTER that.
But that would also assume Biden is going to be the representative actually wheeling and dealing at the summit.
Thus he has time to prepare for a interview that is going to air in parts. Most likely highly edited.
Maybe Biden can take a page out of Modi’s textbook and have his hologram appear at the NATO Summit. The organizers of that Summit should remember though to only have meetings between 10pm and 4 pm if they want old Joe paying any sort of attention.
He has a primetime interview with George Stephanopoulos to be shown on Friday night.
ABC News shifts Biden’s Stephanopoulos interview to Friday primetime
FTA:
This is the next step in proving his marbles are still there. This will likely be highly edited as well.
I read somewhere today the new polls are saying the only person that could beat Trump is Michelle. I wonder how much pressure she is under right now? I hope she doesn’t cave, she scares me as much as anyone, and I’m not really into an Obama fourth term.
I said here quite a while ago that Michelle was the only one to beat Trump. If she won’t run then Kamala is in effect the candidate.
I look forward to a land-slide defeat of the cackling one. Won’t the K-Hive have a fit.
You can relax. Anyone who touts Michelle Obama for the ticket doesn’t know what they’re talking about.
NATO summits are generally performative. Everything has been decided in advance. I’d be more worried about bilateral meetings with other heads of state and government, of which there would usually be many. There’ll be a new British Prime Minister hoping for some coherent exchanges with the President of the US …..
” bilateral meetings with other heads of state and government, of which there would usually be many”
Yes, indeed… those are the up close and personal encounters I had in mind. Used summit for shorthand.
Well, he may not be the only leader missing the summit. Starmer is taking over as PM (glad Tories are losing, not glad Starmer is taking over), and France may have a new parliamentary leader by this time next week…(Would love if Melencthon won…)
“Does China matter any more?”
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1pNpu
August 4, 2014
Real per capita Gross Domestic Product for China, European Union, India, Japan and United States, 1977-2023
(Indexed to 1977)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1pNpr
August 4, 2014
Real per capita Gross Domestic Product for China, European Union, India, Japan and United States, 1977-2023
(Percent change)
> An Annihilation Discourse Has Taken Over Israel
The Italian government blocks this, claiming that it’s child pornography.
“Will the lightning bug show go on?”
That is one of the things that I miss about Europe. Being in the woods at the right time to see lightning bugs flying around in the dark. It was like magic.
Dimming firefly light tells of a loss of magic from the night.
I have seen about 5 fireflies this year maybe, after one of the wettest summers in the Midwest that I can recall. Also, no Japanese Beetles at all this year, after having huge infestations over the last decade. Very few cicadas and crickets. The insect apocalypse continues to pick up pace.
The bugs we do have are vicious though, biting blackflies, also mosquitoes.
For those interested in less hysteria and more reason with regard to the scotus decision on “presidential immunity,” Glenn Greenwald provided an analysis last night.
Spoiler alert: scotus didn’t say anything that hasn’t been said and affirmed many times and in many ways before, despite the current white house squatter’s “righteous” frenzy.
https://www.youtube.com/@GlennGreenwald/videos (Start around 20:24.)
I watched that. GG is in his depth with that one, as one would, or could expect. And, his segment on the D’rats was excoriating, with Symone Sanders giving the game away on their faux primary regime. Having said all that, I’m very cautious with GG anymore. His take on ascriptive right populism I find rather burdensome anymore.
One wonders if he is supportive of this.
In the past, when Anna Diggs Taylor ruled the opposite, he was praising her. (His Salon article was taken down, but you can find him here:)
https://crookedtimber.org/2010/04/01/greenwald-v-kerr/
Fireworks last night in Sebastopol and the stands were packed according to a friend, fireworks and a concert in Santa Rosa tonight, tens of thousands predicted to attend.
And the County Fair runs from 8/1 through 8/11 and they are hoping for record attendance now that “The Pandemic is over”.
I don’t see how the can can be kicked much further down the road with this many superspreader events and multiple reinfections, the consequences simply can not be swept under the rug much longer.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/biden-is-like-yoda-inside-the-big-money-battle-to-salvage-the-democratic-ticket/ar-BB1pktIP
‘Biden Is Like Yoda.’ Inside the Big Money Battle to Salvage the Democratic Ticket.
Good grief.
If you can get through the entire article, it gets worse;
Didn’t old Jamie get presidential cuff links from the biggest bank whore to ever inhabit the Oval office? Just what we need, someone like Dimon. I’m glad he’s not interested, but I also don’t believe much that comes out of his mouth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4AMgzaaBNxk
I’m an old guy now, but I saw Star Wars at the best movie theater in Des Moines when I was a strapping 14-year-old. I was peak Star Wars guy. But I’m not 14 anymore. Sad to see adult Americans get caught up in that cheap nonsense.
https://x.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1808886707582058865
Arnaud Bertrand @RnaudBertrand
Probably “unrelated”
2nd July: Putin warns US mid-range missiles in the Philippines was a problem
3rd of July: US recalls the missiles
“No reason was given as to why the US stopped the deployment”…
Links: – https://scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3268895/philippines-warned-us-satellite-status-puts-it-under-putins-nuclear-cross-hairs
– https://scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia/article/3268941/us-recalls-potent-midrange-missiles-philippines-used-south-china-sea-drills
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GRp0XASbMAY1Z_c?format=jpg&name=small
11:32 AM · Jul 4, 2024
lol
COVID-19 can surge throughout the year
CDC
I love it. The presence of SARS-CoV-2 only peaks between December and February and then again between July and September. You only need to worry about SARS-CoV-2 for six months out of the year.
If you scroll down to the graphic near the bottom, it shows masks as an “additional prevention strategy”, but not a “core prevention strategy”.
Joy
https://x.com/harryspoelstra/status/1808810401867448638?s=46
SCD == ?
Is it really too much trouble to indicate the translation of an acronym in association with its first use? Acronyms and their ambiguities are growing legion.
Sudden Cardiac Death.
SCD
Arrhythmias, Sudden Cardiac Death and incapacitation of pilots
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2577402/
I found this – perhaps this is what is meant –
Sudden Cardiac Death
Limited chars for Twitter users that don’t pay, I think.
Sudden Cardiac Death sounds right. Thanks!
A portion of my comment is my inner curmudgeon fussing about the endless proliferation of acronyms without initial definition. I believe part of the problem arises as more and more people use their phones as web portals and make comments using a phone touchscreen keyboard image like they use for texting.
I still use an older tower and mechanical keyboard. I also still write old-fashioned snail mail letters, although the number of people I correspond with has dropped off over the years.
I-I love the colorful clothes she wears
And the way the sunlight plays upon her hair
I hear the sound of a gentle word salad there
On the wind that lifts her oratory through the air
I’m pickin’ up good vibrations
She’s giving me the excitations (oom bop bop)
I’m pickin’ up good vibrations (good vibrations, oom bop bop)
She’s giving me the excitations (excitations, oom bop bop)
I’m pickin’ up good vibrations (oom bop bop)
She’s giving me the excitations (excitations, oom bop bop)
I’m pickin’ up good vibrations (oom bop bop)
She’s giving me the excitations (excitations)
Close my eyes, she’s somehow closer now
Softly smile, I know she must be profound
When I look in her eyes
She goes with me to a thousand island word salad world
I’m pickin’ up good vibrations
She’s giving me excitations (oom bop bop)
I’m pickin’ up good vibrations (good vibrations, oom bop bop)
She’s giving me excitations (excitations, oom bop bop)
Good, good, good, good vibrations (oom bop bop)
She’s giving me excitations (excitations, oom bop bop)
Good, good, good, good vibrations (oom bop bop)
She’s giving me excitations (excitations)
Ah, ah, my my, what elocution
I don’t know where but she sends me there
Oh, my my, what a sensation
Oh, my my, what elation
Oh, my my, what
Gotta keep those good vocal vibrations a-happenin’ with her
Gotta keep those good vocal vibrations a-happenin’ with her
Gotta keep those good vocal vibrations a-happenin’
Good, good, good, good vibrations (oom bop bop)
She’s giving me the excitations (excitations, oom bop bop)
I’m pickin’ up good vibrations
Na na na na na, na na Kamala
Na na na na na, na na na (bop bop-bop-bop-bop, bop)
Do do do do do, do do do (bop bop-bop-bop-bop, bop)
Do do do do do, do do do (bop bop-bop-bop-bop, bop)
White House touts efforts to reduce gas prices ahead of July 4 travel blitz
LOL, I just thought about this when I couldn’t sleep, when are they gonna goose gas prices again? Now, apparently. This is just a routine occurrence now, every time there’s an election Biden does this. Did it move the needle and favor the Democrats running for Senate last time? Who knows. Only need to move the needle a bit.
Maybe next they can give everyone a grain subsidy.
I have a deep affection for everyone at Naked Capitalism and for the band X, but ouch! “4th of July” is a Dave Alvin song, please! He was briefly a member of X and did that one album with them, but this is one of his trademark tunes, etc. etc. We live in the information age, c’mon. And happy 4th and 14th.
New Big Serge
https://bigserge.substack.com/p/mare-nostrum-roman-naval-power
And a 4th message from Matt Bivens in praise of pamphlets, his Substack host–and NC?
https://mattbivens.substack.com/p/substack-and-the-spirit-of-1776
Blogs take a bow.
Great catch, Carolinian.
This is exactly the kind of encouragement needed for the bloggers who dunnit rite.
Support your heroes. It’s not like they’re well-paid.