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Links 7/4/2024

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Readers, I wish an excellent Fourth of July! –lambert

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Hippos can ‘glide through the air’ says zoo study BBC

On the Time Benjamin Franklin, American Show-Off, Jumped Naked Into the Thames Literary Hub

American’s First Holiday is the Fourth

Today in History: July 4, Declaration of Independence adopted in Philadelphia AP. Commentary:

70 songs for your Fourth of July playlist: Patriotic tunes from Lee Greenwood, Bruce Springsteen and more FOX. Not on the list (lyrics):

Lambert here: Even though X titled this song “4th of July,” I tend not to run on this day, since the bitter lyrics are about a failing relationship, told from the male perspective, and who wants that? That said, Springstein’s “Born in the U.S.A.” somehow became a “patriotic” classic, despite its lyrics; perhaps people are silently attuned to irony, moreso than I think; or they just play it loud. You can do either! Also, words in the refrain — “Talk a walk outside!” — are appropriate at any scale, from the darkened room to the geopolitical.

Americans swat away high fuel prices and gear up for record July 4 travels Al Jazeera

Will the lightning bug show go on? Kentucky Lantern

Climate

‘It’s a disaster’: Hurricane Beryl batters Jamaica BBC

We better rethink the way we live, and fast. Archaeology can help. ArcheoThoughts

No, UK weather is not being manipulated BBC

Syndemics

Biomedicines: The Re-Emergence of Mpox – Old Illness, Modern Challenges Avian Flu Diary

China?

Chinese deaths in Philippines deal blow to business plans already frayed by maritime dispute South China Morning Post

Changes in U.S. Grand Strategy in the Indo-Pacific and China’s Countermeasures Monthly Review

Does China matter any more? Pearls and Irritations

Japan

Japanese Workers Among the Least Motivated in the World Nippon.com

Mynamar

ICJ allows 7 states to intervene in Gambia’s genocide case against Myanmar Anadolu Agency

The Koreas

Young Men Are Swinging Hard Right in Korea. It Could Be a Preview for America. Politico

India

Stampede in northern India echoes similar tragedies in recent history Anadolu Agency

Syraqistan

Israel plans to build 5,300 more settlement units, expanding illegal housing in West Bank Anadolu Agency

The Samson Option: Israel’s Plan to Nuke Its Opponents The Progressive

An Annihilation Discourse Has Taken Over Israel Haaretz

About that pier:

European Disunion

Over 210 candidates withdraw from French elections in favor of stronger peer to counter far right Anadolu Agency. Commentary:

Dear Old Blighty

Are we past caring about democracy? Funding the Future

New Not-So-Cold War

Ray McGovern: Will Putin Attack Poland & the Baltics? Consortium News

Negotiated outcome most likely result of Russia-Ukraine war, major poll says Guardian

Europeans divided on whether accepting Ukraine into EU is “good idea” Ukrainska Pravda. And on NATO membership:

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Notorious American journalist Carlson announces interview with Zelenskyy Ukrainska Pravda

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World Bank recognizes Russia as high income country TASS

Russian Government’s Oil Revenue Was Up Almost 50% in June Bloomberg

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Russia accuses Stolichnaya vodka producer of being an “extremist organisation”, moves to seize its Russian assets BNE Intellinews

The Great Game

How China and Russia Compete, and Cooperate, in Central Asia NYT

Beijing and Moscow Go From ‘No Limits’ Friendship to Frenemies in Russia’s Backyard WSJ

Talks with the Taliban – no women allowed BBC

Why the Mongolian President’s First State Visit to Uzbekistan Matters The Diplomat

Biden Administration

FTC Blocks Tempur Sealy, Mattress Firm’s Deal on Competition Concerns WSJ

Silvergate Bank didn’t adequately monitor $1 trillion in crypto transactions, SEC says The Verge. The deck: “The FTX fallout continues with a new fraud suit.”

2024

Biden digs in while Democrats launch blame game as much of the party wishes he’d bow out FOX

Betting on Kamala Harris Politico

Trump’s Plan for NATO Is Emerging Politico

One Day that Might Save the World Pluralia

White House touts efforts to reduce gas prices ahead of July 4 travel blitz The Hill

The Supremes

What could the Supreme Court’s immunity ruling mean for US foreign policy? Al Jazeera

Digital Watch

Cloudflare debuts one-click nuke of web-scraping AI The Register

Sports Desk

WWE setting records at arenas and stadiums as popularity soars in 2024 FOX

Realignment and Legitimacy

Dan Davies Explains Why Accountability Sinks Are Everywhere Now Bloomberg. The deck: “And how the world lost its mind.”

Imperial Collapse Watch

The Two Hands Of White Empire Indi.ca. Handy map:

2 injured, 1 missing after explosion at Arkansas defense weapons plant ABC

US Army: We want to absorb private-sector AI ‘as fast as y’all are building them’ The Register. Commentary (long):

When RAND Made Magic in Santa Monica Asterisk

Class Warfare

US Continuing Jobless Claims Increase for a Ninth Straight Week Bloomberg

Raids Find Luxury Handbags Being Made by Exploited Workers in Italy WSJ

Systems: How the Ultra-Wealthy Think About Money Anil Dash

The Hustle of Financial Domination Susannah Breslin

Another Boxship Loses Power in Baltimore’s Harbor Maritime Executive

Antidote du jour (KetaDesign):

See yesterday’s Links and Antidote du Jour here

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About Lambert Strether

Readers, I have had a correspondent characterize my views as realistic cynical. Let me briefly explain them. I believe in universal programs that provide concrete material benefits, especially to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime example, but tuition-free college and a Post Office Bank also fall under this heading. So do a Jobs Guarantee and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can deliver on such programs, because the two are different flavors of neoliberalism (“Because markets”). I don’t much care about the “ism” that delivers the benefits, although whichever one does have to put common humanity first, as opposed to markets. Could be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don’t much care, as long as the benefits are delivered. To me, the key issue — and this is why Medicare for All is always first with me — is the tens of thousands of excess “deaths from despair,” as described by the Case-Deaton study, and other recent studies. That enormous body count makes Medicare for All, at the very least, a moral and strategic imperative. And that level of suffering and organic damage makes the concerns of identity politics — even the worthy fight to help the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton’s wars created — bright shiny objects by comparison. Hence my frustration with the news flow — currently in my view the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the other by out-of-power liberals and their allies in the State and in the press — a news flow that constantly forces me to focus on matters that I regard as of secondary importance to the excess deaths. What kind of political economy is it that halts or even reverses the increases in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I am also very hopeful that the continuing destruction of both party establishments will open the space for voices supporting programs similar to those I have listed; let’s call such voices “the left.” Volatility creates opportunity, especially if the Democrat establishment, which puts markets first and opposes all such programs, isn’t allowed to get back into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I love the tactical level, and secretly love even the horse race, since I’ve been blogging about it daily for fourteen years, but everything I write has this perspective at the back of it.

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60 comments

  2. The Rev Kev

    “Notorious American journalist Carlson announces interview with Zelenskyy”

    Hopefully Carlson did not hug Zelensky and thereby acquire the notorious Zelensky Curse. That is how Hungary’s Victor Orbán avoided it in his meeting with Zelensky the other day. If you disbelieve the fact that there is a Zelensky Curse, then right now I would invite you to ask Joe Biden, Rishi Sunak and Emmanuel Macron their feelings on the subject.

    Reply ↓
      1. ciroc

        I apologize for accidentally posting in my native language.
        The moderators must have been very confused.
        Anyway… Happy Independence Day!

        Reply ↓
      1. JohnA

        After which you will need cures for all manner of waterborne diseases in the sewer that is the Thames.

        Reply ↓
    3. timbers

      Notorious? Not renowned, famous, acclaimed, respected, (or despised by elites – same thing)?

      The Zelensky Curse only applies to those who support him and Project Ukraine. For those who do not, they are immune to the curse. Had Orban met Z to do a U-turn and publicly embrace him and Project Ukraine, Orban’s polling numbers would be tanking as we speak.

      Reply ↓
      1. vidimi

        reminds me of the way the word ‘divisive’ is used. If a politician offers a choice other than the status quo, they are being divisive, even if a greater number of people would take that choice.

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    4. Neutrino

      Interviewing after going through detectors for radiation, weapons, chemical substances and anything else potentially lethal?

      When you are, or have been, on the interviewee’s hit list, precautions would be in order.
      Alternative view: Z is getting more desperate to tell his story.

      Reply ↓
  3. mrsyk

    Negotiated outcome most likely result of Russia-Ukraine war, major poll says The Guardian’s security apparatus masters can dream like anyone else. The lede is the punchline, In thinktank’s survey of 15 European countries, few respondents believe Ukraine can secure an outright victory. No kidding.

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    1. The Rev Kev

      Those poll results from the Ukraine sounded a bit suspect. Either they are that deluded or else the poll questions were being given to members of the public by a member of the Azov brigade. A negotiated outcome? I do believe that the only sort of negotiated outcome will be like that signed aboard the USS Missouri in Tokyo Bay back in ’45. Hey, you think that old Joe will lend the Russians the USS Missouri for a signing ceremony in Sevastopol harbour? Be a bit of good will after all those missiles and the like-

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_Instrument_of_Surrender

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  4. funemployed

    I struggled to enjoy the tales of Franklin’s aquatic antics on account of my horror at what I imagine to be the sanitary conditions of the Thames in London in 1726.

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    1. Steve H.

      You might perhaps more enjoy the Archdruid’s take on Wagner and pre-Marxist socialism:

      The Nibelung’s Ring: Prelude

      > [Bakunin] and Richard Wagner were close friends, and they fought side by side on the barricades during the failed European revolutions of 1848-1849.

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    2. Carolinian

      It may not have been as bad as it later became during the more populated 19th century.

      Anyway that’s a fun link. A recently read book about Captain Cook’s third voyage said that the reason sailors of the time didn’t know how to swim was the attitude that if your ship goes down swimming would just prolong the agony.

      Reply ↓
  5. timbers

    World Bank recognizes Russia as high income country TASS

    “Go East, young man, go East…”

    Affordable housing and cars/transportation, decent if not perfect healthcare, labor shortage, rising wages, affordable food and living. I told co-workers that if I were young again, I’d explore the possibility of moving to Russia to start my life and build a home. They dismissed my idea because Russia poor except maybe St. Petersburg.

    Russia may be in a position to offer those in Ukraine devasted and sick of war, a better life and future in Russia than in Ukraine/The West. Now might be a time for the Kremlin to ponder and implement the power of carrots over sticks.

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    2. tim

      I would suggest that Russia give all the Russian speaking peoples of the Baltic States presently being treated as second class citizens aid and a starting package if they will migrate to Siberia

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      1. The Rev Kev

        At least one of the Baltic States is kicking out old age pensioners because they never learned the local language and cannot pass the language test being imposed on them, even though they have lived their entire life in that country. But hey, European values, amiright?

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        1. Polar Socialist

          Well, according to Mrs. Zakharova, Russia has already allocated funds for housing and pensions for these refugees. Not in Siberia, though, but as close to the border as possible, so that they can stay close to their families.

          I can only assume that if Russians and Russian-speaking population left the Baltics, at least Latvia and Estonia would be in deep poo-poo – 25% and 24% of the population belonging to the said segment. They probably wouldn’t have enough people left to man all those bunkers they brag about building on the border…

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    3. Randall Flagg

      Well if you take a look at the lead at today’s The Big Picture website, apparently there are quite a few people in this world that are migrating to Russia. How can that be, I thought they are the evil ones… sarc off now

      https://ritholtz.com/

      Reply ↓
      1. mrsyk

        I thought they have no money and survive on beets. I’ve this nagging feeling about my “public education”.

        Reply ↓
  6. zagonostra

    >No, UK weather is not being manipulated – BBC

    Oh, thank goodness that the BBC set me straight. I was worried that what I was seeing/documenting with my own eyes was drawing a different conclusion. Since the BBC is telling me the truth about Gaza and Ukraine, they wouldn’t lie to me about geoengineering would they?

    The BBC notes:

    Since January, mentions of #GeoEngineering on X more than doubled worldwide, compared with the last six months of 2023.

    I think this explains BBC’s motive for writing this article: More and more people are uploading pictures of the sky turning a sickly dull gray after the sky is streaked with whatever and on the next day or two, perfectly blue. No correlation with commercial flight traffic, none. Is it private jets, military aircraft? I don’t know…I do know that the sky going from blue to a hazy gray is due to man-made factors and I don’t think it is an epiphenomena, though I can’t be completely sure.

    Reply ↓
  7. mrsyk

    Another Boxship Loses Power in Baltimore’s Harbor, Short and well worth a read. I pretty much want to quote the whole thing piecemeal. One has to wonder how many near things like this have occurred. More, Bellavia was the latest of three foreign-flag, deep-draft ships that reported a loss or reduction in power in the Baltimore region since the Dali incident in March, the Coast Guard told the Baltimore Sun. The paper has tallied more than 40 ships that lost propulsion, power or steering in Maryland’s waterways over the last three years, illustrating the relative frequency of “dark-ship” incidents in an area with thousands of vessel transits per year. Oh.

    Reply ↓
    1. The Rev Kev

      Considering the cost of what happens when things go wrong when those boxships lose power, perhaps it would be wise for Baltimore to assign two tugboats to escort ships in and out of the harbour to at least past where that bridge was. Call it an insurance policy and it is not like they cannot do other duties when not in use.

      Reply ↓
      1. mrsyk

        One would think this the obvious means of preventing own goals like the Key Bridge. I guess there’s not much bridge left to take out.

        Reply ↓
  8. Steve H.

    > We better rethink the way we live, and fast. Archaeology can help. ArcheoThoughts

    >> Because we are adapted to stability, our social systems are fundamentally conservative.

    This is an excellent point, and goes well with Aurelian’s recent The Politics of Exhaustion (hat tip Kouros).

    Reply ↓
  9. Mikel

    “The Hustle of Financial Domination” Susannah Breslin

    I’ve said this is a BDSM economy…

    But a few things about the contradictions in the article:

    “In financial domination, some women of color get low-balled by their mostly-white clientele and some leverage their race to increase their revenue…”
    Doesn’t look like they are not engaging in financial domination.

    And it seems like a stretch to call it some new category for a dominatrix. Just sounds like ones who simply have some high paying customers.

    And again, ultimately, who really has the power?

    Reply ↓
    1. Mikel

      I was just thinking …a real financial dominatrix marries you, divorces you, and takes half (or more).

      Reply ↓
  10. Samuel Conner

    The Twitter thread on changes in US ground forces structure is an interesting read. The changes are being driven not by desired capabilities (the capabilities are being diminished by the changes) but by constraints on available manpower resources.

    It reminds me a bit of the reorganization of ground forces structure in the WWII German army in the later stages of the war, to try to stretch limited manpower further.

    I have the impression that “population health” is part of the recruitment shortfall problem. I wonder whether there is anyone in the Department of Defense who is concerned about US population health (if only on account of its consequences for the maintenance of Empire) and is advocating for policies that might improve that.

    Reply ↓
    1. Randall Flagg

      Army manpower, such a simple solution. I can see the recruitment ad now.
      Looking at you Mr. Recent Migrant, want the fastest path to citizenship imaginable? Join the ARMY!! Besides solving our manpower needs in the fields of agriculture, our slaughterhouses and kitchens across the Good Ole USA, you too can see new places and participate in killing and blowing shit up around the world. Women too by the way if we’re going all equal opportunity.
      While we’re at it, let’s clean out our prisons…
      Sarcasm off but honestly, is this such a stretch of the imagination?

      Reply ↓
      1. Polar Socialist

        Isn’t using more and more of ‘foreign’ troops one of the basic signs of the end game of an empire being played out. The phase when the center is more and more dependent on the periphery to control the periphery just before the collapse…

        Reply ↓
  11. zagonostra

    >When RAND Made Magic in Santa Monica – Asterisk

    Arnold, along with General Curtis LeMay — famous for his “strategic bombing” of Japan, which killed hundreds of thousands of civilians — scrounged up $10 million from unspent war funds to provide the project’s seed money.

    Yeah, that’s right, same guy who was lampooned in Stanley Kubrick’s Dr. Strangelove is the man who was instrumental in launching the Rand Corp. That’s an interesting data point.

    I’m not sure I agree with below sentence in the concluding paragraph. The money is still rolling in, there is no limit to MIC spending when “our” national security interest is involved or where we fear falling behind our “enemies.”

    We no longer live in an era when branches of the U.S. military can cut massive blank checks to think tanks in the interests of beating the Soviets.

    Reply ↓
    1. Carolinian

      Fail Safe which came out at the same time as Strangelove starts out with a Rand-like character describing our supposedly fool proof nuclear system. Then, when the worst nevertheless happens and an American bomber destroys Moscow, president Henry Fonda’s only solution is to also destroy New York to keep the peace.

      This Sidney Lumet film is an excellent movie but was set aside to limited distribution by the owners of Strangelove, concerned about the similar story lines. We all love the Kubrick but for people at the time (me for example) his film was a bitter joke at best. And it was for Kubrick too probably. If there’s a thread through his output antiwar would be it.

      Reply ↓
  12. Mikel

    “Young Men Are Swinging Hard Right in Korea. It Could Be a Preview for America.” Politico

    A good number of youth in America do not have the same definition for men and women.
    At any rate, there are global reactionaries trying to put a the genie back knto the bottle on many things.

    I just have this to say: People do not turn their backs on institutions that benefit their lives.

    Reply ↓
    1. mrsyk

      I’m not going to read Politico this morning, thank you, but feel it’s worth mentioning “hard right” has been doing a lot of work recently.

      Reply ↓
    2. Louis Fyne

      same story as the rest of the developed western world…

      young men do want want to go into “dirty job” work (eg, shipbuilding welder) because the wages are suppressed (eg, SE Asians giving work permits to work in the shipuilding industry while living at company dorms like firefighters).

      Amazing that for literal centuries, “the Left” focused on wages and mal-distribution of wealth as the original sin…now it’s something cultural like misogyny or something.

      Reply ↓
    1. mrsyk

      I’m enjoying the photographic image displayed on this video. Anyone know where this is? I’m seeing some empty seats in the dignitaries section, center first balcony.

      Reply ↓
  14. Randall Flagg

    Well about that music list, if #70 is Cole Swindell’s You Should be here, I would like to add: Who You’d Be Today, by Kenny Chesney About a kid cut down too soon in life and wondering how they might have turned out in life.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UnmQRolJ4IM

    As far as July 4th songs, I’ll nominate this version of Tracey Chapman’s Talking ‘Bout a Revolution from a Nelson Mandela Tribute concert way back when in 1988.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wGmHpn-prd0

    As for revolution songs, I’ll throw in “Revolution Calling” by Queensryche from the album, Operation Mindcrime. 28 +/- years ago but still has a bit of relevance. Maybe ahead of its time even.
    But now the holy dollar rules everybody’s lives. I used to trust the media to tell me the truth, tell me the truth…”Who do you trust when everyone is a crook
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T4ig-mqgD4w
    Happy 4th

    Reply ↓
  15. The Rev Kev

    “Opinion | An Annihilation Discourse Has Taken Over Israel”

    Of course if Israel was crazy enough to do this, pretty soon it would cease to exist, especially when it is common knowledge that Iran has no nukes. Pakistan has promised that it would use it’s nukes if Israel did this and you can bet that Hezbollah would launch the tens of thousands of missiles that it has to turn Israel into Greater Gaza. And then there is the matter of the winds carrying radioactive particles to other countries from those nuclear strikes. Several days after Chernobyl, they were dumping milk in America. Arab governments that tried to remain neutral would fall. I would actually expect it to be open season on anything Israeli around the world whether it be individuals, companies, ships, buildings or whatever because of this. At the very least there would be a total embargo on the country and there is nothing that Joe Biden could do to stop it.

    Reply ↓
    1. Es s Ce Tera

      There was a time I pointed to Benny Morris books in support of the claim that Israel was engaging in ethnic cleansing early on in its founding. I thought the guy was against ethnic cleansing, critical of it? I thought he was a historian? I remember 20ish years ago in conversations I pointed colleagues to his works, I think I even lent someone my copy of a text. Now I wonder, what the hell happened to that guy or did I miss something? Feels a bit like I might have at one point been inadvertently recommending Mein Kampf, I’m ashamed, embarrassed.

      Reply ↓
  17. Acacia

    If I were a betting man…

    Biden drops out of presidential race?
    https://polymarket.com/event/will-biden-drop-out-of-presidential-race?tid=1720097640200
    Currently at 60%

    Not all agree, though for interesting reasons:

    There’s nowhere near a 62% chance he drops out. There has been 0 hedging or “do what’s best for the country” style statements. I say this as someone who DESPERATELY wants it to happen. They’re completely burning bridges with even their biggest supporters like pod save America. They wouldn’t be doing that except if they’ve 100% built a reality resistant cult.

    “100% reality resistant cult” — sounds about right.

    Presidential Election Winner 2024
    https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1720097896537
    Trump: 63% Harris: 14% Biden: 12%

    So the market (btw, $223 million bux riding on this) sees Kamala as having a better chance than Joe.

    Comment:

    As soon as Joe drops out and tries to siphon the donor funds to Harris, multiple lawsuits will be filled from Trump’s legal team. Harris Yes is a wet dream just like the chance Biden Yes going above 45c.

    Reply ↓
  18. Aurelien

    Projections of seats in the French National Assembly are still to be taken with a pinch of salt, albeit a smaller one than similar projections a week ago since we now have the definitive list of candidates. But the great uncertainty is still whether the electorate will do its duty to its leaders, and vote for another party from the one they voted for in the first round, and indeed whether they will do so consistently.

    I’ve said for some time that I don’t think any party will emerge with an overall majority, and that this applies particularly to the RN, which has a limited presence in many parts of the country, and a number of somewhat unattractive candidates. So Bertrand is quite right, in my view, to foresee a political crisis and the impossibility of forming a government by the normal processes. But what happens then?

    Well, look at it from the other way round. The RN have said they will not form a minority government, although there are theoretical circumstances under which they could cobble together a majority. But if they did so, the entire French political establishment would be out in the cold. No Ministerial posts, no sinecures running useless government agencies, no chance to put their friends and family in good jobs, no saturation media coverage every time they cleared their throat, not much influence on anything …. So I fear that what we will see is an entirely cynical rallying of all the main non-RN parties, from Left to Right, against the RN, to preserve their status and their advantages. This will be presented as a “Republican Front” or something equally stupid, but in reality it will be a haphazard mutual support agreement to keep hold of the levers of power. It will be difficult, perhaps impossible, to bring off, but the likely political landscape probably rules out any other option succeeding either.

    If this happens, I think there will be a backlash such as French politics hasn’t seen for generations. Not simply will the RN vote be furious, the NFP voters who voted out of something like socialist conviction will be incandescent too. At that point, get your body armour and your helmet out.

    The best analysis I have seen on the causes of all of this is today’s editorial in Marianne by Natasha Polony. Your browser will translate it for you. There is a reckoning coming.

    https://www.marianne.net/politique/natacha-polony-ces-elections-racontent-30-ans-de-deni-de-la-part-de-la-classe-politico-mediatique

    Reply ↓
    1. The Rev Kev

      From what you say, it sounds like the French political scene is going to become a blazing, dumpster fire for the next coupla years. The coalitions that I read about have no stability beyond the date of the election and it may be that France will become ungovernable to the extent that another general French election will have to be held. Macron well and truly screwed the pooch by calling this snap election and it will definitely not look good on his resume.

      Reply ↓

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