Yves here. Tom Neuburger’s latest on “What to do about Biden” raises a lot of interesting points for discussion, even if yours truly does not necessarily agree with them. The one that bothers me the most is the premise that voters should have a say. Operationally, with the primaries past, there is no mechanism by which this can happen. On top of that, it has long been evident that the Democrats regard regular voters as mere chumps, to be used and then tossed aside. The party does not support policies that the majority of Americans, and not just self-identified Dems, want, starting with higher minimum wages, strengthening Medicare and Social Security, taxing the rich, and cutting military spending. The party cheated like crazy to beat Sanders and then did not even deign to toss any policy bones to his backers. They also employed incredibly aggressive methods to bar primary competitors to Biden, most of all RFK, Jr. and even frontally declared that Biden was the candidate, no opposition allowed.
And as for legitimate-looking, feel-good conventions, come on. Trump had an absolutely awful convention in 2016, where his team had difficulty getting anyone other than members of his family to appear on the stage with him. And recall the horrible and protracted fight he had with the father of the deceased Gold Star soldier? Didn’t keep him from winning.
And as to the deal Biden might take, I’d hazard to the reverse of what Tom suggests. The Bidens appear to spend at the limit of their means and then some. A contact who has a very fine eye (as in points out the Bidens own expensive-to-maintain house, among other lifestyle indicators) estimates it would take $200 million to get Biden to go away, as in that is what it would cost to keep him and his extended family at the standard to which they have become accustomed, as well as pay for legal bills, particularly Hunter’s.
By Thomas Neuburger. Originally published at God’s Spies
The Donor Convention is happening as we speak — the behind-the-scenes (sort of) discussion being had by big money Party donors and grandees to (a) force Biden to either resign or withdraw, and (b) figure out who should replace him.
The takeaway: None of this includes voters, except indirectly. (Questions like “Can Harris beat Trump?” include voters indirectly, by guessing their choices.)
The problem: Even though everyone in the Party seems to want to beat Trump, including most Party-adjacent voters, some may feel miffed at the obvious undemocratic nature of the process and thus stay away. At this point the Party needs all the votes it can get. That’s a hard circle to square.
Candidate Requirements
What are the requirements for the candidate in this process? I think there are four:
- Donors must approve of that person and give freely to her or his race.
- Party office-holders — House members and senators, especially those up for re-election — must fully support the choice.
- The press must also fully support the choice. No more talk about “uncertain futures.” No more “Dems in disarray.”
- Voters, both Democrat-adjacent and true independents, must think either
• The donors chose well, or
• Voters had a real say in the process.
All these seem required, but especially 1 and 4. When the donors decide to whom to open their wallets — and do so together — the Party and press will follow. Nervous Democrats needn’t worry about them.
But to voters, the process can’t look too undemocratic. As Ryan Grim wrote, “The key for an open convention to be legitimate in the eyes of the public is that it has to feel open.”
Grim is exactly right. A product can’t just be good for you; it has to feel good for you too. That’s why they put fizz in some toothpaste brands: It fizzes; that means it’s working. Of course, the fizz is often hydrogen peroxide, which does provide benefit. But it also feels beneficial, and that’s what moves product.
If the various candidates and their allies are on TV regularly and giving speeches on their behalf, with regular breaking-news around endorsements from big-wigs, unions, environmental groups, etc., it will feel like what we understand today as authentically real and democratic: reality TV.
Reality TV. Why would that work?
The spectacle will captivate global attention and create a bond between the viewer and the stars of the spectacle – especially if it seems like social media sentiment is playing a real role in how things are unfolding. If that sentiment is seen as helping choose the next nominee, Trump is toast. If Democratic bosses anoint somebody, that person is toast.
Not sure I’m as confident in the outcome as Grim is, but I agree the process has to feel right to voters, or few will buy into it.
Intelligence Community Speaks
I would be remiss in not saying that the “vote” of the intelligence community matters as well. They’ve already weighed in at least twice, and they don’t want Biden.
The first time was September of last year. David Ignatius is as spook-adjacent as a reporter can get. In 2023 he wrote in the Washington Post, “President Biden should not run again in 2024”. His reason, Biden’s two “liabilities”: his age and Kamala Harris.
After all, if every donor knew early that Biden was frail (as Krystal Ball said on her show), did the spook state not also know? Ignatius and his whisperers may have changed their mind about Harris, but not about Joe.
The second time came just this week. Matt Taibbi wrote this about Senator Mark Warner (subscriber post; emphasis added): “The [Washington] Post report said the chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee, Virginia Senator Mark Warner, was planning to gather prominent Democrats to ask Biden to consider stepping down. The optics of the elected official with perhaps the closest ties to the intelligence community dropping that news so shortly before Biden’s biggest televised interview since the debate were not hard to decipher.”
Court-watchers and King Lear’s “God’s spies,” please take note. Do you think they want Trump? The IC gets a vote too.
How Donors Could End Biden’s Reign
Before I say this, remember, I don’t have a horse in the Democratic Party race. There’s no real progressive option. I do want the strongest candidate though, and I’d like it soon. To that end, I offer this.
If every donor agreed that Ms. Somebody Else is their choice, the way to remove Biden and the people who’ve stiffened his spine is simple and clear: Refuse to finance his and his family’s retirement.
You know what I mean. No library money, fewer speeches, a total cold shoulder from all the big money types. It’s not even a bribe; it’s a post facto carrot that’s also a perfect stick. Even the Court says post facto tipping’s all right.
And it would work. Every modern ex-president would take that deal. The Bidens and their closest friends, if they choose right, would sail to the islands of sun on boats made of gold, surrounded by flowers and praise.
And we, the public, would know who our choices are … finally.
So we need to bribe a corrupt, senile president so our democracy can be saved?
I wish I didnt have family I cared about in America, otherwise I’d be gone.
Yep. Bribe the Family… or maybe a severed horse’s head in Dr. Jill’s bed.
*Cut to the Don, shrugging*
Our democracy, that example for the whole world to emulate, must be awfully fragile if we’re having to save it one election after another.
Wait, so if I gave/give a few dollars to Biden’s reelection campaign, will I get an invite to who we pick next?? Oh boy.
Or, is there a minimum?
Sarc off now…
Dollars are better sent to NC and Water Cooler. At least here you are not being treated like a mushroom.
Not sure how much of a threat refusing to fund his retirement amounts to when he might not even make it to election day.
You have to treat “Biden” as a complex Crime Family. “Creepy” Joe is just the ‘front man’ for the extended cabal of corrupt family members.
Between Trum and Biden, I feel like it’s watching a tag-team against Ladies Liberty and Justice.
Confidence is at an all- time low, cynicism an all-time high. End of Empire – and it ain’t pretty.
Better fire up the MIC for its last hurrah!
Biden should push for Nobel peace prize along with the money to complete this farce
There was an article I think Connor linked to last week, it was an interview in which the idea of “accountability sinks” was proposed.
As with “It Is Now Labour’s turn to Expand the Piecemeal Privatisation of the UK’s National Health Service”, Yves comment on Neuberger’s positioning of “voters” in his frame highlights his failure to recognize what voting is for in “Our Democracy”.
Voting is an accountability sink, it serves no other purpose in “The West”.
Question: Other than ‘defeating Trump,’ what do the Democrats have to offer? The point: defeating Trump is a campaign strategy, not a plan for governing.
In other words, without Donald Trump, what is the Democrat’s raison d’etre (reason for existing)?
This makes Mr. Trump 1) the best thing that ever happened to the Democrat’s and / or 2) a bete noir (dark beast) used by cynical manipulators to frighten voters into doing the Democrat’s bidding.
Joe Biden’s central accomplishment has been bringing the world closer to nuclear annihilation than at any other point in human history. His second was getting 600,000 (Colonel Douglas MacGregor’s most recent number) Ukrainians slaughtered in a bid to destroy Russia. His third was co-launching a WWII style genocide in Gaza.
So sure, another round of Donald Trump is going to be not-constructive. But that he is running again is completely and utterly a result of the Democrat’s 1) failure to govern effectively and 2) their launch of multiple military misadventures for the benefit of the MIC that, with some likelihood, could turn the US into a burning ember.
The entirety of the Democrats on the short list to replace Biden couldn’t, working together, make accurate change for a dollar. And they will be handed the most dangerous circumstances (Thanks Joe!) in modern history. God help us all.
I’m not sure I buy the premise that to “Refuse to finance his and his family’s retirement” could ever happen. If that’s the case, we can’t get rid of him because all it takes is a _very small_ contingent of Democrat donors to bankroll (or at least promise to bankroll) that retirement.
Sadly, Biden could have gone out with a ton of respect in, say, March he had just said he was not opting for re-election. People would have loved him and respected him. Now, the power-hungry hoards in the White House, clinging to their man and the power surge of being in the White House, are riding this old, broke down horse as far as he’ll go–which ain’t far.
Everyone was and is saying they don’t want these two old guys for President, but the parties forced them on to us. The elections are rigged. In favor of the two party system.
Yves’s comments about voters are well-observed. Days of coverage about Biden’s inadequacies and it’s all for donors, insiders, and the media—no voters have a say. Most of them probably haven’t changed their minds. If all you have is a vote and you want Trump out, you really will vote blue no matter who. But if you are a Biden top donor and no longer trust your investment, you need to whip up a consensus to get your money’s worth.
To your point, currently on the reddit frontpage, a post about how NPR is almost exclusively focusing on Biden’s travails.
https://old.reddit.com/r/NPR/comments/1dymduw/npr_i_love_you_but_youre_killing_me/
Sadly, people (ie highly educated NPR listeners) don’t understand that the many of major donors to NPR are the same or connected to DNC donors.
The really sad thing is that people refuse to see how powerless they really are in this situation, and the power they want to exercise is to force NPR to conform to their vision of reality, the same vision that said donors have been funding up until Dorothy pulled back the curtain on the Wizard.
I do not think it is possible to create a reality-TV convention that will make the nominee look legitimate, especially not with the on-screen and off-screen talent available to the Democrats.
The only thing that could restore legitimacy at this point is for the vice president to do what is constitutionally required and remove Biden from office. If this is done decisively and successfully, Harris will gain stature because she will be the only person in Washington DC who has done anything legitimate and decisive in decades. If Harris fails to do this, nothing can make the resulting mess look legitimate.
I am not inclined to bet on this outcome given the people involved – they will either refuse to do it or botch it. But I think this course of action pretty clearly has the highest probability of success out of any available choices.
albrt: I agree. I don’t see how the “intelligence community” and the big donors can wipe out the whole ticket and then claim that the Democratic Party has retained any legitimacy whatsoever.
After rubbing the populace’s collective face in the fact that the Party is a private club?
I have plenty of doubts about Harris, but the Constitution does indicate what has to happen here.
The only Biden whose opinion matters is Dr Jill, because she controls Joe’s Meds.
And I think that $200,000,000 figure is about right and it might be slightly low.
There’s also the fact that a fall guy will be needed and Hunter fits the bill a lot better than Brother Jim who is only facing perjury charges at the moment…
if Hunter is tossed under the bus the amount needed to support the Family would be a little less, perhaps only $150,000,000.