2:00PM Water Cooler 8/1/2024

By Lambert Strether of Corrente

Bird Song of the Day

Blue Mockingbird, Zona Arqueológica Monte Albán–Camino Ecológico, Centro, Oaxaca, Mexico.

* * *

In Case You Might Miss…

(1) Kamala’s VP search.

(2) Democrats on race (or rather, racial classification)

(2) Trish Greenhalgh on Long Covid.

(3) Covid and class.

* * *

Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

* * *

Trump Assassination Attempt

“Video from Trump assassination attempt victim’s POV shows figure moving on roof moments before gunfire” [FOX]. “A video from James Copenhaver, one of the victims critically wounded in the July 13 assassination attempt against former President Trump, shows a figure moving across the roof of the American Glass Research (AGR) building just minutes before gunfire rang out at Trump’s rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. In the video taken at 6:08 p.m. on July 13, the person appears on the roof of the building adjacent to where Trump is speaking and can be seen walking from the 1:00 second mark to about the 2:50 second mark.” • Oh. This entire story makes less and less sense as it goes on.

“Pennsylvania county law enforcement officials say Secret Service is presenting a ‘misleading’ picture of Trump shooting scene” [CNN].

Democrats en Déshabillé

Democrats on race:

Lambert here: Back in the day, when I was involved in efforts to standardize classification schemes, one of my colleagues produced (I paraphrase) the following bon mot: “For all sentences, the word is can be replaced by has been classified as without loss of meaning.” So, “those ideas are green” could be reworded as “those ideas have been classified as green,” and so on. There’s something to be said for that thesis (“I refute it thus“), but Democrats can’t seem to make up their minds about whether it’s true or not. Indeed, they want to have it both ways; “is” would be essentialist; “has been classified” social constructionist (caveat that this is binary, therefore at best an approximation; I’m sure scholarly work has been done on this, and readers should feel free to introduce it). Does anybody remember the enormous liberal dogpile on Rachel Dolezal–

“From Jenner to Dolezal: One Trans Good, the Other Not So Much” [Adolph Reed, Common Dreams]. “This brings me to the most important point that this affair throws into relief. It has outed the essentialism on which those identitarian discourses rest. [Alicia] Garcia asks ‘So why don’t we just accept Dolezal as black? Because she’s not.’ But why is she not black in Garcia’s view? Well, ‘Her parents say she’s not even close to being black.’ But what would that mean — that she has no known black ancestry? Is blackness, then, a matter of hypodescent after all? But, if that’s what it is, then what politically significant meaning does the category have? Dolezal no doubt has her issues and idiosyncrasies, but, especially if the judgment of the NAACP counts for anything in the matter, I’m pretty sure I’d take her in a trade for Clarence Thomas, Cory Booker, Condi Rice, and five TFA pimps to be named later. Or would Dolezal’s ‘not even close to being black’ mean that she was raised outside of ‘authentic’ black idiom or cultural experience? But whose black idiom or cultural experience would that be? Is there really an irreducible, definitive one? If so, on which Racial Voice blog or Ivy League campus might we find it?” • Note that Kamala’s rollout of identitarian verticals: First, Black Women. Second, White Women. Third, White Men. Fourth, Latino Men.” Fifth, AAHNPI. This rollout strongly suggests an essentialist perspective. I mean, where’s the “Mixed Race” vertical? Could we have separate verticals for 1/2 White, 1/4 White, etc.? I would guess the Democrat base is essentialist (race is, after all, a box to be checked, or not checked, on an HR form). The following Mother Jones headline is on point–

“White Man Tells Black Journalists His Black Opponent Is Not Black” [Mother Jones]. • Clearly essentialist. Not Black/Indian; Black. Not “identifying as Black.” Black. OTOH, we have Axios–

“Donald Trump falsely suggests Kamala Harris misled voters about her race” [Associated Press]. “CHICAGO (AP) — Donald Trump falsely suggested Kamala Harris had misled voters about her race as the former president appeared Wednesday before the National Association of Black Journalists in Chicago in an interview that quickly turned hostile. The Republican former president wrongly claimed that Harris, the first Black woman and Asian American to serve as vice president, had in the past only promoted her Indian heritage. ‘I didn’t know she was Black until a number of years ago when she happened to turn Black and now she wants to be known as Black. So, I don’t know, is she Indian or is she Black?’ Trump said while addressing the group’s annual convention. Harris is the daughter of a Jamaican father and an Indian mother, both immigrants to the U.S. As an undergraduate, Harris attended Howard University, one of the nation’s most prominent historically Black colleges and universities, where she also pledged the historically Black sorority Alpha Kappa Alpha. As a U.S. senator, Harris was a member of the Congressional Black Caucus, supporting legislation to strengthen voting rights and to reform policing.” • AP is, I would say, social constructivist, although Trump also wants it both ways (“happened to turn” is social constructivist, but “is she Indian or is she Black” is essentialist).

Of course, Kamala’s views count, too (at least from a socially constructivist standpoint). Here’s a cooking video from 2019:

The relevant frame:

Personally, I don’t care one way or the other; I’m a social constructivist. That said, what’s the theory of the case here? The Democrats — and Harris — need to make up their minds whether they’re social constructivists or, like Mother Jones, Trump, and whichever staffer named and organized the identity rollouts, essentialists. They need to pick one or the other, and stop tying to have it both ways.

2024

Less than one hundred days to go!

Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:

First poll with Harris at the top of the Democrat ticket; Trump’s position deteriorates (and any advantage he gained from the assassination attempt has been wiped away. Nevertheless, he still leads, albeit within the margin of error. NOTE RCP used to have two pages of swing states; I always used the first one. Now there is only one, which I take as an indicator that Harris v. Trump polling is not all that widespread.

Vibe shift:

Unbelievable vibe shift in the US with Kamala Harris https://t.co/LAZoglUMHW pic.twitter.com/rrMisGHLbu

— Albert Pinto (@70sBachchan) July 26, 2024

We’ll see what the averages say Friday, but:

Harris has wiped out Trump's lead across seven swing states in the latest round of the Bloomberg News / Morning Consult poll. The poll found a big Dem lead in Michigan, a more modest Trump lead in Pennsylvania and close contests everywhere else. Dead heat.https://t.co/UzzZaknhD2 pic.twitter.com/xxJN94TFec

— Josh Wingrove (@josh_wingrove) July 30, 2024

Lots of Brownian motion here, still. More noteworthy is that Trump got no visible bounce from the assassination.

* * *

Biden Defenestration:

“Biden privately weighs how to use the time left in his presidency” [WaPo]. On Air Force One: “About an hour into the flight, [BIden] glanced at the television playing in the background, where guests on MSNBC were speculating over who Vice President Harris would pick as her running mate. ‘Kamala and I talked,’ Biden remarked. ‘I said she could pick me.’ He waited a beat, then said he was joking, prompting laughter…. The anger and bitterness from the lead-up to his decision to withdraw — when he felt cornered by members of his own party — seem to have given way to an attitude that is more accepting of the current moment. Biden is occasionally wistful, and he has engaged in lighter and even playful moments after a weeks-long period of intense stress, for example peeking through American flags and around columns near the Rose Garden to make faces at aides who had gathered to applaud him after his Oval Office address last week.” • Then again, he could kick some of the backstabbers in the stones on his way out the door….

* * *

The Campaign Trail:

The VP search:

Kamala (D): “Harris’ high-stakes veepstakes: Fundraising powerhouses vie for VP slot” [Open Secrets]. Handy chart:

I’ve highlighted the conventional wisdom of those in the running.

Kamala (D): “Pennsylvania Gov. Shapiro cancels Hamptons trip, days before expected Harris VP reveal” [CNBC]. “”The Governor’s trip was planned several weeks ago and included several fundraisers for his own campaign committee,” Shapiro spokesman Manuel Bonder confirmed to NBC News. ‘His schedule has changed and he is no longer traveling to the Hamptons this weekend.'” • So, announcement next week, apparently. And I was so excited.

* * *

Kamala (D): “The DNC virtual roll call to nominate Kamala Harris is underway. This is how it will work” [WHYY]. “Delegates to the Democratic National Convention began officially selecting their nominee for president in a process that kicked off Thursday. But unlike in past years, they are not doing so in the raucous party atmosphere of the convention floor or even during the convention itself. Instead, they are filling out electronic ballots at their homes, offices or vacation spots more than two weeks before the first delegate steps foot inside Chicago’s United Center. Vice President Kamala Harris is the only candidate eligible to receive votes after no other candidate qualified by a Tuesday night deadline. The ‘virtual roll call,’ the term used by Democratic National Committee officials, will allow Harris to claim the nomination by Monday evening. That’s just 15 days after President Joe Biden announced he would not seek a second term following widespread concerns within the party over his ability to defeat Republican nominee Donald Trump in November.” • The byte-filled room….

* * *

Kamala (D): “Democrats Think Their Candidate is Running for President of Online, Again” [Freddie DeBoer]. “And many seem intent on remaking a core 2016 mistake: acting as though the Democratic candidate’s job is to become the President of Online rather than the President of the United States, begging Harris to devote her campaign to memes and social media, playing to people like them instead of the middle class white retirees in Wisconsin and Arizona who will actually determine this election. Here [New York Magazines’] Jason P. Frank says that the key to victory for Harris is mobilizing ‘stans.’ Jason, what Kamala Harris needs is white independents without college degrees in swing states. Are a lot of those in very-online fan armies? I have my doubts. In fact I suspect most of the people Harris needs the most don’t know what the fuck a stan is and don’t spend any time in the spaces where stans congregate! Here Angelina Chapin credulously covers a pro-Harris Zoom call for white women, which I’m sure is a great way to reach women married to laid-off-ironworkers-turned-Uber-Eats-drivers in the Rust Belt. Here Camille Squires talks about all the enthusiasm for Harris that’s bubbling up in Harris’s old sorority. Squires writes that ‘there’s little doubt that she can count on the support of the more than 360,000 women of Alpha Kappa Alpha Sorority, Inc.’ Well, yes, that’s true. As would Biden. I don’t think the Democrats were going to struggle to reach the Black sorority sister demographic. The weird way that a given party’s most loyal voters are often rendered the least important is another dumb element of democracy, and another fact of life. This all reflects a pitfall that pretty much everyone falls into, but which is particularly hard to avoid when your side of the partisan divide controls most of the media: playing to those within your coalition rather than those who you might be able to drag into it. All of the winking, self-impressed meme politics going on right now are useful if you want to win the day on Bluesky but profoundly useless if you want to herd many of our dumbest voters onto the Democratic party’s pasture. If Harris is going to win, the absolute last thing she should do is to run a meme candidacy like that presided over by Robbie Mook in 2016, where Hillary’s agenda took a back seat to a never-ending procession of glamorous celebrity photo ops and a wince-inducing attempt to make the candidate into America’s cool grandma.” • Clinton 2.0.

Kamala (D): “We Get to Decide What Is Possible Under a Future Harris Administration” [Ilhan Omar, The Nation]. • Not if the way Kamala made it to the top of the ticket is any indication, no.

* * *

Trump (R): “Donald Trump falsely suggests Kamala Harris misled voters about her race” [Associated Press]. I run this again to make a specific comment on the campaign: “So, I don’t know, is she Indian or is she Black?” • Again, I’m banging my head on my desk because I didn’t save the very early Kamala Harris campaign brochure where she ran as Indian.

Trump (R): “JD Vance Says Trump’s Comments About Kamala Harris’ Racial Identity Were ‘Hysterical'” [NOTUS]. The headline is the reverse of what Vance said: ” Sen. JD Vance told reporters it’s ‘hysterical how much the media is overreacting’ to his running mate Donald Trump’s comments questioning whether Vice President Kamala Harris is Black.” Not “Trump’s comments”; the media. More: “‘I think he pointed out the fundamental chameleon-like nature of Kamala Harris. And you guys saw yesterday, she was in Georgia, and she put on a southern accent for a Georgia audience. She grew up in Vancouver. What the hell is going on here? She is not who she pretends to be.’ When asked by a reporter explicitly if he questions whether Harris is Black, Vance said, ‘What I question is why she presents a different posture depending on which audience that she’s in front of.'” • Fair. See “Democrats on race” above. I did say I was out of the snark business, but Trump is said to be adept with nicknames. Couldn’t something be done with “Kamala” and “Chameleon”?

Trump (R): “The farmers who love JD Vance” [Politico]. “Republican vice presidential nominee JD Vance has had a rough week. But you wouldn’t know it from today’s fundraiser in Coalinga, Calif., where he got a warm reception from California’s farming community. California Republicans were quick to brush off his positions on ‘childless cat ladies’ — and eager to turn Democratic messaging on its head by rallying behind the embattled Ohio senator. ‘We’re weird like him,’ said Barbara Hallmeyer, a retired high school drama teacher and a California Republican Party delegate attending the fundraiser. Vance’s greeting is a measure of Trump’s continuing grip on the farm vote and among rural voters, whom he won by a large margin in 2020, according to exit polls. But it’s also a sign that, despite worries in some quarters of the party that Vance is a liability to the ticket, key elements of the GOP base remain supportive even after a wave of negative press coverage surrounding his provocative statements.” • I don’t think “weird” resonates outside already deeply committed Democrats (and the ads in opposition write themselves).

Trump (R): “Trump Forces Out Project 2025 Mastermind” [The Daily Beast]. “His departure hinted that Heritage was shutting down its work on the initiative more than a year after Project 2025 produced its cornerstone 900-page policy mandate that came to define the MAGA movement. The manifesto attracted widespread criticism in recent weeks over its extremist proposals that would demand fealty from federal workers, promote Christian nationalism and overhaul policies from abortion to civil liberties and climate and restructure the departments of Justice and Defense, among other agencies. As the project backfired politically, Trump sought to distance himself from the group despite its naked ties to his first administration, with Project leadership boasting a number of senior Trump aides and close advisers. The source told the Beast that the rift between the Trump campaign and the Heritage Foundation was not ideological, but rather was about power and who will ultimately control Trump World and make staffing decisions in a possible second Trump administration.” • “Came to define the MAGA movement’ in whose eyes?

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

* * *

Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

* * *

Airborne Transmission

Corsi-Rosenthal Box still going strong:

The Corsi-Rosenthal box is the best air purifier we've tested out of 26 —and it's one we built ourselves! How can it the BEST air purifier when we've got sleek Dysons, portable Levoits, and much cooler boxes of filters? Our newest R&D Video answers that! https://t.co/EwcN8B1jXL pic.twitter.com/aAyUALqVpH

— RTINGS.com (@rtingsdotcom) June 27, 2024

NOTE More modern designs use big honkin’ computer fans suitable for gaming machines. These are quieter, and also can be assembled in areas that don’t use box fans (Southeast Asia). However, the same engineering principles apply.

Maskstravaganza

“Masking Policies at National Cancer Institute–Designated Cancer Centers During Winter 2023 to 2024 COVID-19 Surge” [JAMA]. “Cancer centers were more likely to require universal masking in at least some areas if they were located in the Northeast (11 [78.6%]), had longer NCI designation duration (first quintile: 10 [83.3%]), had more program funding (first quintile: 11 [84.6%]), or had a higher care ranking (first quintile: 11 [84.6%])” • And no wonder!

Vaccines: H5N1

“Reassortment”:

CDC: Seasonal flu jabs offered to farmworkers to prevent H5N1 reassortment

"Reassortment could lead to a new influenza virus … a virus that has the transmissibility of seasonal influenza and the severity of H5N1."

Alexander Tin’s noteshttps://t.co/TD6B6gTUgj pic.twitter.com/ooDVsW01Oq

— CoronaHeadsUp (@CoronaHeadsUp) August 1, 2024

On reassortment, from Current Topics in Microbiology and Immunology (2014):

Reassortment is the process by which influenza viruses swap gene segments. This genetic exchange is possible due to the segmented nature of the viral genome and occurs when two differing influenza viruses co-infect a cell. The viral diversity generated through reassortment is vast and plays an important role in the evolution of influenza viruses. Herein we review recent insights into the contribution of reassortment to the natural history and epidemiology of influenza A viruses, gained through population scale phylogenic analyses. We describe methods currently used to study reassortment in the laboratory, and we summarize recent progress made using these experimental approaches to further our understanding of influenza virus reassortment and the contexts in which it occurs.

Reassortment, then, does not happen with corona viruses (mavens, correct me). So if human-to-human H5N1 transmission really gets rolling, it could be bad for humanity in a way that Covid is not.

Sequelae: Covid

Long COVID: a clinical update” (preview) [Trish Greenhalgh et al., The Lancet]. “Long COVID currently has no definitive cure, so prevention is of the utmost importance. The best way to prevent long COVID is to prevent COVID-19 through well established public health measures such as paying attention to indoor air quality (eg, ventilation or filtration); wearing well fitting, high-filtration masks or respirators when appropriate; and supporting infectious individuals to quarantine. People with acute COVID-19 should ensure they rest.” • Handy chart of the multiple pathways to Long Covid (the “pinball machine” below):

r

The following is Greenhalgh’s “lay summary” of the Lancet piece:

“Long COVID – a dystopian game of pinball” [Trish Greenhalgh, Independent Sage]. The deck: “Prof Trish Greenhalgh explains the findings of her recent comprehensive Lancet review of Long Covid.” Brilliant extended metaphor: “Long COVID is a real condition whose complex biological basis is beginning to be understood. The sequence of events that makes COVID-19 into a protracted (and quite possibly, lifelong) illness in some but not all people is a bit like a dystopian game of pinball. An unlucky ball hits a series of key buffers, buzzers and bells, triggering a cascade of further events… [T[hese changes flip off additional cascades of biochemical messengers (‘supplementary pathological mechanisms’), which, in health, contribute to keeping the body in balance…. [T[hese microscopic changes in genes, molecules, proteins, cells and micro-organisms produce various kinds of organ damage…. [T]hese organ-level changes lead to the well-known symptoms of Long COVID described in the second paragraph above. Different people will experience different combinations of symptoms just as the various lights, buzzers and bells on a pinball machine react differently depending on the precise trajectory and force of the initial ball. But the process is always a whole-body phenomenon which begins with specific virological and immunological triggers and then cascades to affect multiple organs. You didn’t get that when you had COVID-19? Lucky you. The ball of your initial infection missed a few vital targets. But that doesn’t mean you’re immune from Long COVID for life. Your next infection could light up the whole machine.” • Yep.

“Long Covid Defined” (“Sounding Board”) [NEJM]. Interesting to read on conjunction with Greenhalgh. Here is their definition, which does come in the form of a Figure:

Elite Maleficence

“Upcoming Meeting” [HICPAC]. “The next HICPAC meeting is scheduled for August 22-23, 2024. This will be a virtual meeting.” I wonder why? More: “. See agenda for time dedicated to public comments…. Public engagement and input are vital to HICPAC’s work.” • No agenda is posted. Of course. Here is the roster, which lists seven members. That’s odd: HICPAC’s charter: “The Committee shall consist of 14 non-Federal members, including the Chair or Co-Chairs.” Does the current make-up even have a quorum?

* * *

Lambert here: New York hospitalization leveling out, and now WalGreens positivity down for two weeks, are the first positive signs I’ve seen in a long time. Wastewater still going strong, though!

TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

Wastewater
This week[1] CDC July 22:	Last Week[2] CDC July 8 (until next week):
Variants [3] CDC July 20	Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC July 20
Hospitalization
★ New York[5] New York State, data July 31:	National [6] CDC July 6:
Positivity
National[7] Walgreens July 29:	★ Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic July 20:
Travelers Data
Positivity[9] CDC July 8:	Variants[10] CDC July 8:
Deaths
★ Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11]CDC July 20:	★ Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12]CDC July 20:

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, with hot spots annotated. Keeps spreading.

[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* very popular.

[4] (ER) Worth noting Emergency Department use is now on a par with the first wave, in 2020.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Leveling off. Doesn’t need to be a permanent thing, of course. (The New York city area has form; in 2020, as the home of two international airports (JFK and EWR) it was an important entry point for the virus into the country (and from thence up the Hudson River valley, as the rich sought to escape, and then around the country through air travel.)

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). The visualization suppresses what is, in percentage terms, a significant increase.

[7] (Walgreens) An optimist would see a peak.

[8] (Cleveland) Slowing. Comment on the Cleveland Clinic:

Why is the Cleveland Clinic building a new facility for a professional basketball team? These hospitals are not 'nonprofits' they are ridiculously profitable monopolies with an endless cash gusher to point at whatever they want. https://t.co/1REM2LMLjd

— Matt Stoller (@matthewstoller) July 29, 2024

Ka-ching.

[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Up. Those sh*theads at CDC have changed the chart so that it doesn’t even run back to 1/21/23, as it used to, but now starts 1/1/24. There’s also no way to adjust the time rasnge. CDC really doesn’t want you to be able to take a historical view of the pandemic, or compare one surge to another. In an any case, that’s why the shape of the curve has changed.

[10] (Travelers: Variants) Same deal. Those sh*theads.

[11] Deaths low, but positivity up.

[12] Deaths low, ED up.

Stats Watch

Employment Situation: “United States Initial Jobless Claims” [Trading Economics]. “The number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the US rose by 14,000 to 249,000 on the period ending July 27th, reaching an almost new yearly high, surpassing market expectations of 236,000. This increase, along with other key indicators, indicates that the US labor market continued to weaken during this period, bolstering expectations that the Federal Reserve may lower benchmark borrowing costs by September.”

Employment Situation: “United States Challenger Job Cuts” [Trading Economics]. “US employers announced 25,855 job cuts in July 2024, the lowest level in a year, and down 46.9% from June’s 48,786. Still, it is the highest total for the month since 2020, above July 2023’s 23,697.:

Manufacturing: “United States ISM Manufacturing PMI” [Trading Economics]. “The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 46.6 in July of 2024 from 48.5 in the previous month, firmly below market expectations of 48.8, reflecting the sharpest contraction in US factory activity since November 2023.”

* * *

The Economy:

"We have a 30 year old family member who works on the assembly line building Peterbuilt trucks in Denton, Texas. (a PACCAR company) He has seniority and works the #1 shift. He was told not to come to work next week. Shutting down the assembly line for a week due to lack of…

— Dave Collum (@DavidBCollum) July 31, 2024

Apparel:

This video comparing the same dress across different price points is also very good.

My point is not to tell you how much to spend on something (buy what suits your budget). Only saying that two things that look alike online are not necessarily the samehttps://t.co/UzcnW0vh1V

— derek guy (@dieworkwear) July 31, 2024

The video on Tik Tok scammers and fast fashion is well worth a watch.

Tech: “Hacker Shows How to Get Free Laundry For Life” [404 Media]. “Orlitzky then tried a bunch of stuff that did not work for unlocking free laundry… What did work was short circuiting the red and black wires on the coin-drop mechanism. He found this out after discovering a photo of the same coin-drop part on Amazon, he said. With the dryers, Orlitzky writes he had to use a voltage tester to make sure he didn’t get electrocuted, and then expose the wires with a pocket knife. That’s it. ‘The main hurdle is that you have to be pissed off enough to try,’ Orlitzky said. ‘But armed with enough outrage, the actual bypass is fairly accessible.’ Once the prep work is done, shorting both the dryers and washers can be done in seconds or a minute. ‘I do it in the middle of the day. The bypasses don’t harm the machines, and the machines don’t belong to the people who own the buildings/cameras. Your neighbors (who are most likely to catch you in the act) aren’t invested either way. What are they gonna do?’ he added.”

* * *

Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 55 Neutral (previous close: 42 Fear) [CNN]. One week ago: 40 (Fear). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Jul 31 at 2:15:54 PM ET.

Zeitgeist Watch

The world might be a different place if we taught grade school kids about power curves instead of averages:

The top 10% of alcohol drinkers in the US consume 74 drinks per week. pic.twitter.com/18QUFhyLuk

— Mike Beckham (@mikebeckhamsm) July 31, 2024

Class Warfare

Yes, of course Long Covid hits the working class disprotionately. From Greenhalgh’s Lancet paper (above):

News of the Wired

“Parasites Are Everywhere. Why Do So Few Researchers Study Them?” [Smithsonian]. “But parasites are also diverse and understudied creatures that have evolved to flourish in nearly every animal and ecosystem on Earth. They keep ecosystems in balance, providing a natural control on host species while stimulating their co-evolution over many generations. …. Parasites also change host species’ behavior, leading to oddities like the pop-culture-worthy zombie ants that mysteriously climb ten inches up plants, permanently lock their jaws into the plant, and allow their parasitic fungus (Ophiocordyceps unilateralis) to grow out of their body and rain spores onto unsuspecting ants below. And parasites keep food webs miraculously complex, forming hundreds of connections among themselves, other parasites and host species. Often, in an effort to travel between host animals, parasites will expose their hosts to new predators, like the tapeworm Ligula intestinalis, which grows so large it changes the buoyancy of the fish it inhabits, causing the fish to swim closer to the surface and get eaten by birds. Parasitism, a relationship between two species where one benefits at the other’s expense, has evolved independently over 220 times in animals—more than any other animal lifestyle. Nearly half of all animals are parasites, with conservative estimates at 3.5 million species. Like the mammals, birds, insects and fish all around us, each parasite serves important functions in its environment—ones that, without the parasite, could spell widespread ecological change, if not disaster. For example, a widely supported idea called the ‘enemy release hypothesis‘ suggests that as parasites of invasive plants and animals decrease, the spread and abundance of the invasive species increase.” • Maybe I should have filed this under The Bezzle. Or Class Warfare.

“‘Sensational breakthrough’ marks step toward revealing hidden structure of prime numbers” [Science]. “Looking back, Guth recalls a quote from the Austrian poet Rainer Maria Rilke, who instructs an aspiring poet to “live the questions” rather than seeking answers. For Guth, this strategy of being comfortably uncomfortable with intractable problems resonates with his experience as a mathematician.” • One of my intractable problems is reading this thing, which I’m sure is dumbed down for a lay audience. Perhaps a reader will help.

Look at all those PDP-11s!

The top 10% of alcohol drinkers in the US consume 74 drinks per week. pic.twitter.com/18QUFhyLuk

— Mike Beckham (@mikebeckhamsm) July 31, 2024

* * *

Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From LawnDart:

LawnDart writes: “Red Raspberry and Climbing Nightshade: one will brighten your day, and the other can end it.”

* * *

Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not covered by the annual NC fundraiser. So if you see a link you especially like, or an item you wouldn’t see anywhere else, please do not hesitate to express your appreciation in tangible form. Remember, a tip jar is for tipping! Regular positive feedback both makes me feel good and lets me know I’m on the right track with coverage. When I get no donations for three or four days I get worried. More tangibly, a constant trickle of donations helps me with expenses, and I factor in that trickle when setting fundraising goals:

Here is the screen that will appear, which I have helpfully annotated:

If you hate PayPal, you can email me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I will give you directions on how to send a check. Thank you!