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2:00PM Water Cooler 8/15/2024

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By Lambert Strether of Corrente

Bird Song of the Day

I looked for another species of songbird that mimics, and came up with the Thrasher.

Brown Thrasher, Concord Park–The Cove, Knox, Tennessee, United States

* * *

In Case You Might Miss…

  1. Walter Kim on Kamala
  2. Trump to jail September 18?
  3. Sanders on 2020 (a coup)
  4. First monkeypox case outside Africa spotted in Sweden.

* * *

Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

* * *

2024

Less than one hundred days to go!

Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:

More Blue on the map. Trump still leads nationally, but some swing states moving toward Kamala. In particular, I’m no insider, but if I were on Team Trump, Georgia’s drop from +3.6 to this week’s +0.6 might cause me to chew my hands. Georgia? Really? Atlanta burbs no longer sitting it out? Can any readers from Georgia clarify?

* * *

The Campaign Trail:

Kamala:

Kamala (D):

Seems that Walter Kirn and I have arrived at more or less the same place, albeit by different routes.

Kamala (D): “NYC kickoff rally for Harris confronts pro-Palestinian demonstration” [Politico]. “The energy and size of an ebullient rally of elected New York Democrats hyped for Kamala Harris’ candidacy met a massive crowd of pro-Palestinian demonstrators chanting, banging drums and waving banners Wednesday night. The Democrats’ rally was interrupted repeatedly by the protesters — a reminder of one of the party’s biggest internal divisions…. Though Harris has yet to detail her platform and where she stands on key issues, she has signaled a change in tone and style when it comes to how she addresses members of her party and others protesting Palestinian casualties and devastation.” Oh. Tone. And style! More: “And in New York on Wednesday, the delegates who plan to show their support for her at next week’s nominating convention in Chicago appeared to have picked up on her cues. ‘We’ve got to come together,’ Espaillat was saying, as a protester shouted out from the crowd. ‘She’s got to come with us too. She will be with us. We’ll come together.'” • Pleasant to think of Kamala stepping onto the Iron Throne over a 700,000-strong pile of corpses from Biden’s Covid policies, but who wants to talk about that?

Kamala (D): “Goldman Sachs says voters are shifting to Kamala Harris—and the odds of a blue wave are swelling” [Fortune]. “Kamala Harris has pulled ahead of Donald Trump in national polls as voters turn away from third parties and the odds of a blue wave increases, according to Goldman Sachs.” How nice for her. And them! More: “‘While third-party candidates had been drawing slightly more from Biden earlier in the year, what is left of third-party support seems to be coming at least as much from former President Trump,’ the analysts wrote. ‘The percentage of undecided voters also began declining soon after Harris’s entry into the race, and is now half of what it was a month ago. Those undecided voter numbers are likely locked in, according to the investment bank.” And: “While the Goldman analysts said in the Monday note that a Harris economic plan would likely mirror Biden’s proposals with a few additions, a majority of voters surveyed by the FT and University of Michigan poll said Harris should break completely from Biden or ‘make major changes’ to his economic proposals.” • Oh, good.

Trump:

Trump (R): “Trump campaign brings Corey Lewandowski back on board” [Politico]. “Donald Trump’s campaign is expanding its ranks as he seeks to regain his footing in the presidential campaign, bringing on a handful of top allies — including former Trump 2016 campaign manager Corey Lewandowski…. Trump has a long history of campaign shakeups — he had two in 2016 and one in 2020. But despite his current struggles in the race, Trump has remained solidly behind his current leadership. The former president told The New York Times last week that he was “thrilled” with Wiles and LaCivita.”

Trump (R): “Luntz: Trump ‘committing political suicide’ as Harris seizes ‘intensity advantage'” [The Hill]. “‘She’s bringing out people who are not interested in voting for either Trump or Biden. So the entire electoral pool has changed,’ Luntz said. ‘And if it continues in this direction, you have to start to consider Democrats winning the Senate and Democrats winning the House. ‘The actual people who are participating — she’s got intensity now. She’s got an intensity advantage. She’s got a demographic advantage. And I haven’t seen anything like this happen in 30 days in my lifetime,’ Luntz continued. Asked how significant that margin of extra Harris voters might be to the overall electoral pool, Luntz said, ‘1 percent, maybe 2. That’s it. But that’s enough.'” And: “Luntz suggested there are three components — attributes, issues and conditions of the country — that build a candidate’s support, adding, ‘You shift the demographics, and you shift the entire outcome.’ ‘The issues and conditions favor Donald Trump. He should be winning this election. But the attributes are so much in Harris’s favor that he’s not. I’m trying to do a focus group tonight with undecided voters under the age of 27 for a major news outlet. And I can’t recruit young women to this, because they don’t exist as undecided voters,’ he said.” • I think the pollsters are, to varying degrees, all players at this point, just like the press. But I put Luntz in the bucket of Old Brandy OGs, people who have been around a long, long time, are who they are, and don’t need to shift with the wind. Luntz, Nooners, Cook Political Report, Larry Sabato… Sanders, I suppose. That’s about. So I would take Luntz’s remarks as being very worrisome for Trump.

Trump (R): “Secret Service prepares use of bulletproof glass for outdoor Trump rallies: Sources” [ABC]. “The measure is typically used exclusively for sitting presidents, but the Secret Service is making an exception following the first attempted assassination of a presidential candidate since Robert Kennedy in 1968…. The Secret Service recommended that Trump stop holding outdoor rallies last month after a gunman in Butler, Pennsylvania, fired at him from a rooftop 400 feet from the stage, nicking his ear. A man in the crowd was killed in the attack. Since July 13, Trump has held nearly a dozen campaign events, all of them indoors. Trump has privately expressed a desire to campaign outdoors and has sought assurances it would be safe, the sources said.” • Should have been done long ago. The Secret Service doesn’t have a lot of credibility here.

Trump (R) (Bragg/Merchan): “Surprise . . . Not: Judge Merchan Denies Trump’s Recusal Motion, Setting Up September 18 Sentencing” [Andrew McCarthy, National Review]. “Last week, I contended that Judge Juan Merchan is determined to pronounce sentence upon Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump on September 18 — i.e., two days after early voting begins in Pennsylvania — and would therefore deny the former president’s post-trial motions (1) seeking Merchan’s recusal from the case and (2) claiming, based on the Supreme Court’s July 1 immunity ruling, that the jury’s 34 guilty verdicts against Trump must be vacated. Merchan has now taken step one. In the communication with counsel that I outlined in the above-linked column, the judge said he would rule on the recusal motion this week. Yesterday, he denied it in a curt three-page decision. To recap, Merchan should have recused himself: He is a partisan Democrat, he contributed to Biden’s campaign in violation of state ethics rules, and his daughter is a progressive operative who does lucrative campaign work for Democrats… In his aforementioned letter to counsel, Merchan said he expected to issue his immunity ruling by September 16. I argued in last week’s column that, having already had several weeks to mull over the Supreme Court’s July 1 immunity decision and the parties’ submissions on the subject, Merchan knows he is going to rule against Trump. That is why he also instructed the parties to assume that sentencing would occur as scheduled on September 18, and that they should therefore make whatever presentencing submissions they intend to make. Merchan knows the Democrats’ three other lawfare cases against Trump are bogged down in pretrial litigation (indeed, the federal indictment in Florida has been dismissed). The sentencing of Trump is lawfare’s last chance to make a big impact on the 2024 presidential election. Hence, expect Merchan to mete out a prison sentence.” • It would be deeply ironic if Merchan brought about a massive swing in Trump’s favor; presumably the Trump campaign is figuring out how to leverage this. There’s no reason Trump can’t run from a prison cell, after all.

Kennedy:

Kennedy (I): “RFK Jr. reached out to Harris campaign about administration role in exchange for endorsement” [CNN]. “Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s campaign reached out to Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign to arrange a meeting about a possible role in her administration if he drops out of the race and endorses her, a Kennedy campaign official and a Democratic official told CNN…. Kennedy campaign staff also attempted to reach out to intermediaries for Ron Klain, former White House chief of staff for President Joe Biden, but those efforts were fruitless, the Kennedy campaign official said.” • A chat with Ron Klain. How pleasant.

* * *

Realignment and Legitimacy

The previous coup:

And, thinking about this, the first coup — the dry run, you might say — (in exchange for, in my view, Clinton suppressing the story of his theft of the Texas primary): The deal being Clinton supports him at the Convention, he makes her Secretary of State and supports her in 2016. So Obama’s got some experience in this kind of manipulation. Three times, in fact: Clinton, Sanders, Biden. Quite a record.

Why now….

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

* * *

Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

* * *

Monkeypox

“WHO declares mpox outbreaks in Africa a global health emergency as a new form of the virus spreads” [Associated Press]. “The World Health Organization declared the mpox outbreaks in Congo and elsewhere in Africa a global emergency on Wednesday, with cases confirmed among children and adults in more than a dozen countries and a new form of the virus spreading. Few vaccine doses are available on the continent. Earlier this week, the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced that the mpox outbreaks were a public health emergency, with more than 500 deaths, and called for international help to stop the virus’ spread. ‘This is something that should concern us all … The potential for further spread within Africa and beyond is very worrying,’ said WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus. The Africa CDC previously said mpox, also known as monkeypox, has been detected in 13 countries this year, and more than 96% of all cases and deaths are in Congo. Cases are up 160% and deaths are up 19% compared with the same period last year. So far, there have been more than 14,000 cases and 524 people have died.”

“More contagious mpox strain reaches Europe as Sweden reports first case” [Telegraph]. “‘A person who sought care’ in Stockholm ‘has been diagnosed with mpox caused by the clade I variant. It is the first case caused by clade I to be diagnosed outside the African continent,’ Sweden’s Public Health Agency said…. The patient had travelled to an country hit by an outbreak of the virus, Jakob Forssmed, Sweden’s Minister of Social Affairs, told a press conference…. There are two types of mpox, Clade 1 and Clade 2. While Clade 2 caused a public health emergency in 2022 it was relatively mild and has already appeared in Sweden. Clade 1b, which appeared in the DRC in September of last year, is said to be ‘the most dangerous yet.’ It has a higher mortality rate than clade 2 – said to be between 5-10 per cent compared to 0.2 per cent – and has already accounted for 511 deaths and nearly 15,000 cases in Africa this year.” • Sweden’s “Public Health” Agency break out the morphone for the elders [laughs mordantly]. Commentary:

As I urged in 2022. Generally, however, we’re still hearing “close contact,” however (which is not a mode of transmission, and nigh unto handwaving, but still, showing so far no signs of being as contagious as Covid).

Airborne Transmission: Covid

“Evidence from whole genome sequencing of aerosol transmission of SARS-CoV-2 almost 5 hours after hospital room turnover” (abstract only) [American Journal of Infection Control]. From the Abstract: “Whole genome sequencing during an outbreak suggested in-room transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to two patients admitted nearly 2 and 5 hours, respectively, after discharge of an asymptomatic infected patient. These findings suggest that airborne SARS-CoV-2 may transmit infection for over 4 hours, even in a hospital setting.” • Yikes!

Transmission: H5N1

“The highly pathogenic H5N1 virus found in U.S. dairy cattle has some characteristics that could enhance infection and transmission among mammals” [Nature]. “The Nature publication’s findings on the absence of efficient airborne transmission align with a report from the US CDC, which observed inefficient respiratory droplet transmission between ferrets (in only 1 out of 3 donor–contact pairs) of an HPAI A/H5N1 virus (A/Texas/37/2024) isolated from a human case who had been exposed to infected dairy cattle in Texas8. This still low transmission efficiency is not surprising, as several phenotypic changes are required for avian A/H5N1 influenza viruses to be transmissible via the air between mammals…. However, Eisfeld and colleagues report dual binding specificity for α-2,3 and α-2,6-linked sialic acid receptors, which they hypothesize to be a specific feature of A/H5N1 viruses isolated from cattle. This finding suggests that one of the traits required for mammal-to-mammal transmission via the air is already present in Cow-H5N1…. Monitoring the genotype and phenotype of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b virus in dairy cattle and derived viruses is of utmost importance. This close investigation is necessary to develop and implement effective prevention strategies. The urgency of this situation cannot be overstated.” • Worth reading in full; it’s a good round-up, too.

Positivity: Covid

“COVID positivity rate hits 21% as students return to school” [KPBS]. “As students start the new school year, San Diego County’s COVID-19 positivity rate has soared to nearly 21%, marking the second highest rate recorded since the pandemic began. Dr. Edmund Milder, a pediatric infectious disease specialist at Rady Children’s Hospital, highlighted several key guidelines that schools are implementing to safeguard students. ‘The thing the school does is making sure you have good air quality, you know. Open windows and outdoors whenever possible,’ Milder explained” • Finally a pediatrician who knows what they’re talking about. Why don’t they all?

“COVID Levels Are ‘Very High’ in Majority of U.S. States” [WebMed]. “The latest CDC wastewater monitoring data shows that 27 U.S. states are detecting “very high” levels of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID. The label “very high” indicates the highest viral activity level used by the agency. There are four lower levels that can be reported: minimal, low, moderate, and high. Nationwide, the lowest level being reported is moderate, and there are no states reporting low or minimal levels.” • With, of course, no historical data so we can judge the present by the past.

Sequelae: Covid

“COVID-19 Pandemic School Disruptions and Acute Mental Health in Children and Adolescents” [JAMA]. “In this study, school opening was associated with an increased incidence of acute psychiatric emergencies among children and adolescents, suggesting that school can be a substantial source of stress with acute mental health implications.” And: “The main reasons for the psychiatric ED visits were psychomotor agitation (33.1%), anxiety (16.1%), eating disorders (10.4%), suicidal ideation (8.8%), and suicide attempts (8.6%) (Table 1). These last 3 factors significantly increased during the study period, with increments of 294.8% for eating disorders, 297.8% for SI, and 249.1% for SA.” • So, re-opening was a greater problem than lockdowns? At least along some axes? “Mom, I missed the active shooter drills…..”

Data Modeling

“We need to talk about the Pandemic Mitigation Collaborative models (part 2)” [Closed Form]. Part 1. This is a critique of Hoerger’s work (which you will note I don’t put in Table 1 because I haven’t had time to dope out his model. So far as I know, these two posts are the only critique). Caveat: To my simple mind, that wastewater data maps directly to case data is persuasive, because Biobiot’s visual representation made that conclusion inescapable, back when we had Biobot data. Nevertheless, this author knows their stuff, so it’s worth a read. Picking out one nugget: “No matter which way you slice it, this is not good data; [a] converting wastewater to cases remains impossible to do reliably, and the PMC [b] do not have access to any actual ‘ground truth’ data about COVID transmission.” • Note I regard claim [a] as wrong, but if claim [b] is true, the data used to build the model is still suspect at least. Perhaps a kind reader who understands “linear regression” and whether it’s an appropriate tool to use for modeling a pandemic can comment. NOTE The author writes: “I think it’s time for the PMC to publicly post their modeling code and details about the modeling approach. By this I mean, whatever R scripts or Stata code (or whatever the case may be) were written to generate and evaluate the model, along with information about how accuracy is evaluated before forecasts are made, how model performance is monitored, what types of modeling approaches are being applied to deal with the autoregressive and dependent structures of infectious disease time-series data, and so forth.” Or keep it simple and release the source code. It’s hard to believe that hasn’t been done; we have github for a reason.

Social Norming

“Didn’t want to know” (1):

“Didn’t want to know” (2):

“Didn’t want to know” (3):

* * *

TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

Lambert here: Worth noting that national Emergency Room admissions are as high as they were in the first wave, in 2020.

Wastewater
This week[1] CDC August 5: Last Week[2] CDC July 22 (until next week):

Variants [3] CDC August 3 Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC August 3

Hospitalization
New York[5] New York State, data August 13: National [6] CDC July 20:

Positivity
National[7] Walgreens August 13: Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic August 3:

Travelers Data
Positivity[9] CDC July 22: Variants[10] CDC July 22:

Deaths
Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11]CDC July 27: Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12]CDC July 27:

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, with hot spots annotated. Keeps spreading.

[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* very popular.

[4] (ER) Worth noting Emergency Department use is now on a par with the first wave, in 2020.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Going down. Doesn’t need to be a permanent thing, of course. (The New York city area has form; in 2020, as the home of two international airports (JFK and EWR) it was an important entry point for the virus into the country (and from thence up the Hudson River valley, as the rich sought to escape, and then around the country through air travel.)

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). The visualization suppresses what is, in percentage terms, a significant increase.

[7] (Walgreens) Fiddling and diddling.

[8] (Cleveland) Jumping.

[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Up. Those sh*theads at CDC have changed the chart so that it doesn’t even run back to 1/21/23, as it used to, but now starts 1/1/24. There’s also no way to adjust the time range. CDC really doesn’t want you to be able to take a historical view of the pandemic, or compare one surge to another. In an any case, that’s why the shape of the curve has changed.

[10] (Travelers: Variants) It’s rumored that there’s a new variant in China, XDV.1, but it’s not showing up here.

[11] Deaths low, but positivity up.

[12] Deaths low, ED up.

Stats Watch

Initial Jobless Claims: “United States Initial Jobless Claims” [Trading Economics]. “The number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the US fell by 7,000 to 227,000 on the week ending August 10th, contrasting with market expectations of a slight increase to 235,000, marking the second consecutive weekly decline since reaching a near-one-year high of 250,000 in late July. It was the fewest amount of new claims filed in five weeks, challenging recent data that reflected a marked slowdown in the US labor market, and adding some leeway for the Federal Reserve to not loosen monetary policy at a magnitude that jeopardizes the fight against inflation.”

Manufacturing: “United States Industrial Production” [Trading Economics]. “Industrial Production in the United States decreased 0.2% year-on-year in July 2024, the first annual drop in three months, following a downwardly revised 1.1% rise in June.”

Manufacturing: “United States NY Empire State Manufacturing Index” [Trading Economics]. “The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index increased to -4.7 in August 2024, the highest in six months, compared to -6.6 in July and forecasts of -6. The reading showed business activity in the New York state edged only slightly lower, with new orders falling modestly…. Finally, firms were fairly optimistic that conditions would improve in the months ahead.”

Retail: “U.S. Retail Sales” [Trading Economics]. “Retail sales in the US soared 1% month-over-month in July 2024, following a downwardly revised 0.2% drop in June and way better than forecasts of a 0.3% gain. It is the biggest increase since January 2023, with sales at motor vehicle and part dealers rising the most (3.6%), followed by sales at electronics and appliance stores (1.6%).”

* * *

Tech: “Kim Dotcom’s Extradition to the U.S. Given Green Light By New Zealand” [TorrentFreak]. “More than twelve years have passed since Megaupload became the prime target in a high-profile law enforcement operation, which led to the collapse of Kim Dotcom’s file-storage empire….. According to Stuff, New Zealand Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith informed Kim Dotcom that he will be deported to the United States to stand trial…. ‘[T]he obedient US colony in the South Pacific just decided to extradite me for what users uploaded to Megaupload, unsolicited, and what copyright holders were able to remove with direct delete access instantly and without question. But who cares? That’s justice these days,’ [Dotcom] wrote on Tuesday. Today, Dotcom followed up, stating that he has ‘a plan,’ ‘loves New Zealand,’ and doesn’t intend to leave the country.” • Not sure how this is different from Silicon Valley looting the entire Internet for training sets. Go big or go home, I guess.

* * *

Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 24 Exreme Fear (previous close: 23 Extreme Fear) [CNN]. One week ago: 23 (Extreme Fear). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Aug 13 at 1:21:45 PM ET.

Gallery

Timeline cleanser:

News of the Wired

I am not feeling wired today.

* * *

Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From TH:

TH writes: “This one is an iPhone picture. Sometimes it’s just easier to use that one as my wide-angle instead of lugging around lenses and switching them out on the Nikon—but clarity suffers a little. So, for anyone unfamiliar with this scene, the J. Paul Getty Center (museum) in Los Angeles has this lovely huge pool that receives water from that waterfall, and this labyrinth of a raised shrub in its midst. It then is bordered by gardens.” I have always wanted a water feature; not, perhaps, of this scale….

* * *

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About Lambert Strether

Readers, I have had a correspondent characterize my views as realistic cynical. Let me briefly explain them. I believe in universal programs that provide concrete material benefits, especially to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime example, but tuition-free college and a Post Office Bank also fall under this heading. So do a Jobs Guarantee and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can deliver on such programs, because the two are different flavors of neoliberalism (“Because markets”). I don’t much care about the “ism” that delivers the benefits, although whichever one does have to put common humanity first, as opposed to markets. Could be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don’t much care, as long as the benefits are delivered. To me, the key issue — and this is why Medicare for All is always first with me — is the tens of thousands of excess “deaths from despair,” as described by the Case-Deaton study, and other recent studies. That enormous body count makes Medicare for All, at the very least, a moral and strategic imperative. And that level of suffering and organic damage makes the concerns of identity politics — even the worthy fight to help the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton’s wars created — bright shiny objects by comparison. Hence my frustration with the news flow — currently in my view the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the other by out-of-power liberals and their allies in the State and in the press — a news flow that constantly forces me to focus on matters that I regard as of secondary importance to the excess deaths. What kind of political economy is it that halts or even reverses the increases in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I am also very hopeful that the continuing destruction of both party establishments will open the space for voices supporting programs similar to those I have listed; let’s call such voices “the left.” Volatility creates opportunity, especially if the Democrat establishment, which puts markets first and opposes all such programs, isn’t allowed to get back into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I love the tactical level, and secretly love even the horse race, since I’ve been blogging about it daily for fourteen years, but everything I write has this perspective at the back of it.

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86 comments

    1. hk

      Luntz is probably right to be worried, but only up to a point. In a way, young women tend to be more identarian in their choices than others, at least based on my experience. They were not likely to turn out for Biden, since he was wrong, from their view, for both policy and identarian reasons, but most of them weren’t ever “undecided” as in they might go for Trump ever, I suspect. Harris will have them and nothing conceivable will change that, I think.

      1. ambrit

        Who would be Chancellor to the Kaiserin Hillary von Blingen? Such discord! Such cacophony! Music of the angels it is not!

        2. fjallstrom

          Cacophony? Discord? Not in the sweet bardcore of Hildegard von Blingin’! Oh, you wrote about some “Hillary”, must be some cheap knock off then.

          (For those not familiar with the bardcore scene: Hildegard von Blingin’ is a real artist and does faux medieval versions of modern songs. Can be found on YouTube. Funny, and she has an excellent voice.)

  2. midtownwageslave

    Re: bullet proof glass for outdoor events

    I think DJTs office at TT doesn’t get the attention it deserves from the SS. Several rooms, some with terraces, at the neighboring Aman hotel have a straight shot into his office.

    1. Tom Stone

      Drones have changed that equation, the Weyland corporation offices on the 182nd floor are just as vulnerable as DT’s ( DT’s…I’ll leave that alone.).

  3. Useless Eater

    Bernie Sanders is a pathetic ass kissing sellout. Expresses his displeasure with “the establishment” for screwing him out of the primaries by endorsing the establishment candidate as soon as ordered.

    1. Martin Oline

      I sent that spineless liberal money for his campaign in 2016. I had to do it through the website online. That website contacted me just a couple of days ago that they were “updating their terms of service.” I marked it as spam but I believe the Harris campaign will solicit me from different servers so the spam label will do nothing. It is the first act of many by the DNC to try and wring as much money out of the unsuspecting as they can. Going back eight years for donors signals they are scraping the bottom of the barrel. Things aren’t as swell as they would like you to believe.

      1. Samuel Conner

        To my mind, there’s a feel of “karma” to this, that having mistreated Sanders and his enthusiastic supporters in 2016 and engineered the JRB swap-in in 2020, they discover that Sanders’ one-time enthusiasts no longer have much interest in or use for the D Party.

        I registered “I” this year (was formerly D for multiple cycles) and if the Greens are not on the ballot in my state, I’ll leave the top of the ticket blank.

      2. GF

        My wife gave him $7 during the 2020 campaign and received an autographed copy of his book. So we got something out of the donation. Haven’t read it yet.

    2. Cat Burglar

      He’s a retail politician; making deals is what they do. He was a useful tool for introducing Medicare For All as a litmus test for serious redistributive politics. They still fear that (no voting for Jill Stein allowed!), if not him. He moved the ball down the field, even if he was defeated. Time now to find another way, and another politician, to move ahead.

    3. Lou Anton

      I don’t know. Bernie had a lot to do with getting umemployed people an extra $600/week when the shutdowns first started (link refers to the money, doesn’t attribute to Bernie…it’s an “IIRC” on my part).

      The guy tried, twice, to take over the top of the ticket and the party. He fought a principled fight, and he lost. As for what’s happened since, I see it as him trying to improve things for people wherever he can.

      I respect the heck out of him, and he’s not a sellout.

      2. fjallstrom

        And by fighting a principled fight he presented the establishment with the option of choosing to settle the matter in a principled fight or cheating. And they choose cheating, twice.

        The guy who mastered the amendment process to get marginal improvements for ordinary people, isn’t going to lead a revolution, even if many wanted him to. He played within the rules and showed that it wasn’t a way forward. I think that made a difference in pulling down the illusions of how things work, paving the way for future attempts at power that are more grounded in the real rules.

  4. Bsn

    Thanks Lambert. Related to your comments about Obama’s coup in 2008, here’s another version of that period (and I agree, there was a nearly final coup in 2008) by John Titus. A 20 minute video running down how Wall St. and the Oligarchy sent a knife in to the heart of American democracy and law. It’s here: Presenting America’s Real Coup d’Etat

    2. Martin Oline

      Thanks for this. His math seems to be solid. 5,000 mortgages in 2007 X $200,000 each = $1 billion in theoretical assets but actually worthless. $1 billion = # of coke heads on Wall Street X # of lines they snort up X # of deals they do = another great depression. Today of course a great depression is actually a buying opportunity until it is not.

  6. Jeff W

    “Seems that Walter Kim and I…”
    Ha, a play on Walter’s surname, I guess? A kerning “error” with Kirn → Kim?

    2. griffen

      Rudyard Kipling for the win. Oops couldn’t help it. Did a report on his classic mongoose tale, as a bright eyed college freshman, in a speech class.

      1. Lambert Strether Post author

        > Rudyard Kipling

        Such an imperialist and also a great writer. I loved the “Just So” stories when I was a child. The illustrations were so odd and funny.

        1. B24S

          Which edition, pray tell?

          Was raised on it, among other musty tomes, and our boys as well. Have always refused to acknowledge, much less subject myself or offspring to, the execrable D version. Raised them in the museum/aquarium I worked at in SF, and the zoo, where our friends were keepers (that sounds terribly bad, doesn’t it?). Real live animals there who’d happily eat you, given the chance…

          There was another movie they watched, wherein one of the key concepts was “the circle of life”.

          Yum!

          1. albrt

            I had an early 20th century American edition. Looking at the copies available online it appears it was a version of the 1912 Doubleday edition. Illustrations were the same but the cover was different.

            I remember my grandmother laughing until she cried when she read “the Butterfly That Stamped” to me.

          2. Lambert Strether Post author

            > Which edition?

            Can’t say and no time to look. What I can say is that was in no way modernized and improvied, and the orginal line drawings were there, reminsicent of Wind and the Willows, Winnie the Pooh (and I suppose Alice in Wonderland, though IIRC those were etchings);;.

        2. Samuel Conner

          Perhaps there could be a series of NC “Just So” stories, to complement the large and continually growing library of songs.

          The first two “Just So” tales could be about How JRB became the 2020 D nominee, and then how he unbecame the 2024 D nominee.

        3. caucus99percenter

          Just So Stories was a childhood favorite of mine, too. I liked to imagine being Taffimai Metallumai, inventing the alphabet along with my dad.

        4. Daniil Adamov

          Such an imperialist and also a great writer.

          It may amuse you to know that this was also the opinion of early Soviet literary authorities. Politics made his more adult stuff a bit awkward to handle, but he got in as a children’s writer and has been extremely popular in the USSR/Russia ever since.

  7. griffen

    I caught Frank Luntz on TV yesterday, being interviewed on CNBC. He was onto a few points, including how the undecided swing vote has found a “new home” in the Harris campaign. There was another interview this morning with John Bryant and Mick Mulvaney; they were both oddly in agreement of how the Harris campaign can be successful on US economic policy without going into exact level of details. Tax policy, by example should be a huge discussion and a bigger idea than “eliminate taxes on tip income.”. Oh… foreign policy for the next incoming administration could be a live grenade so to speak…hot potato may work better?

    By the bye I would not longer have a great deal of “trust” in the Secret Service protective capabilities if I were a candidate Trump. The piece by Greg Gutfeld was a “whoo boy” article to read, from Links this morning.

      1. Martin Oline

        It gets better and better. From Real Clear Politics:
        “During a Donald Trump visit to North Carolina yesterday, a woman Secret Service special agent abandoned her post to breastfeed with no permission/warning to the event site agent, according to three sources in the Secret Service community.

        Shortly before Trump’s motorcade arrival — I’m told five minutes beforehand — the site agent was getting ready for the arrival. (The site agent is the person in charge of the entire event’s security.)

        The site agent went to do one final sweep of the walking route and found the agent breast-feeding her child in a room that is supposed to be set aside for important Secret Service official work, i.e. a potential emergency related to the president.

        A working agent on duty cannot bring a child to a protective assignment. The woman was out of the Atlanta Field Office. The woman agent was in the room with two other family members.

    2. rowlf

      I like past Luntz panels when he lets common people voice their opinions and he then gets smacked between the eyes by them not liking the government and the media.

      Some have been the US people’s version of RT Margarita Simonyan laying out the citizen’s view:

      We don’t like you much really – RT Editor-In-Chief to BBC

      Accosted by a number of pointed and leading questions, RT’s Editor-In-Chief Margarita Simonyan delivered a withering put down of Western media’s elitist tone towards Russia and countries of the Global South.

      One or two elections ago a person on one of Luntz’s panels said as common people he really did not care for the media telling him how to think. Give us the facts and not your interpretation. The rest of the panel approved the comment. Maybe Mark Twain smiled.

  8. jm

    Trump (R): “Secret Service prepares use of bulletproof glass for outdoor Trump rallies: Sources” [ABC]. “The measure is typically used exclusively for sitting presidents, but the Secret Service is making an exception following the first attempted assassination of a presidential candidate since Robert Kennedy in 1968….”

    Not to get all pedantic but George Wallace was a presidential candidate in 1972 and, technically, Gerald Ford was also a candidate in September 1975. Guess this is what happens when you lay off your editorial staff. ABC, I’m looking at you.

  9. Christopher Fay

    Lawrence Weschler wrote about Robert Irwin designing Getty Garden, actually titled Robert Irwin Getty Garden which makes me want to bend down and see all the flowers and also touch the hand rail.

    1. Tracie Hall

      Thanks for the heads-up on Lawrence Weschler! It looks like it must be this one, “Seeing Is Forgetting the Name of the Thing One Sees: A Life of Contemporary Artist Robert Irwin”. I will have to hunt it down!

    2. Tracie Hall

      Thanks for the heads-up on Lawrence Weschler! It looks like it must be this one, “Seeing Is Forgetting the Name of the Thing One Sees: A Life of Contemporary Artist Robert Irwin”. Or wait! I also see one called “Robert Irwin Getty Garden” and that one is actually available through my LAPL digital library. Yay! Thanks!!!

      1. mrsyk

        Having to choose between these two would seem weird to an outside observer. They have all the appearance of siblings having a home for the holidays row. The video is an easy search if you get paywalled.

    1. griffen

      I suspect his attorneys are at least, going to try delay tactics….Merchan never did strike me as an impartial character in this whole affair. I’m not a lawyer to be certain…but hush money payments to a woman of the evening? It all feels so….contrived. Ok, so Trump is not highly moral.

      Meh. Bill Clinton never paid off his dalliances or his reported mistresses? FFS.

      https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/15/trump-seeks-delay-to-hush-money-sentencing-00174157

    2. John Anthony La Pietra

      I hope Trump stays out of jail throughout the campaign — for one reason only: I don’t want him to break Eugene V. Debs’s record for most votes for President received by a candidate in prison.

  13. Lunker Walleye

    Inquiry

    I’m grateful to NC and all the commentators and check in as much as possible. I also listen/watch Judge Nap on utube. Does anybody know where the judge is today? Nothing is posted.

    1. Ghost in the Machine

      I was wondering that too. His planned afternoon interviews yesterday did not happen.

    2. Lunker Walleye

      Found Judge on tw**ter under his name and he has interviews with the regulars. Hope nothing has gone haywire with his regular channel.

    3. Samuel Conner

      IIRC, at the end of his chat with Aaron Mate yesterday, he mentioned an afternoon conversation scheduled with Douglas MacGregor (yes, it’s at 30:00), but that did not air.

  14. Cat Burglar

    The Covid wastewater map has shown a decrease in Bend, Oregon, after a rise of some weeks. Bend has been very, very smoky for the last few weeks, and traffic into town has been much lighter than it was in mid-July — one suspects that accounts for the drop

  15. .human

    The energy and size of an ebullient rally of elected New York Democrats hyped for Kamala Harris’ candidacy met a massive crowd of pro-Palestinian demonstrators chanting, banging drums and waving banners Wednesday night.

    Is Politico hiring straight out of high school now!

  17. willow

    > Lawfare

    Contemporary civil wars/revolutions start from a breakdown in faith in the legal system/procedural justice (Sri Lanka) rather than anger per se which tends to feed into behaviours of spite (such as the Chinese ‘lying flat’ protests). Creation of ‘rules of law’ are a natural consequence of society formation. If the faith in the current system breakdown, this leads to alternative systems forming (e.g. organised crime syndicates /warlords becoming quasi governments). This formation of alternative ‘rule’ systems overcomes Yves observation about individuality subverting the likelihood of civil war/revolutions in the US (e.g. the original US revolution over UK taxes overcoming strong beliefs in individuality).

    Consequently, Democrat use of lawfare is extremely dangerous & self-destructive because the impact goes beyond Trump as an individual and to the very fabric of trust in the US legal system. If there is a civil war or secessionists movements, blame will be on the Democrats.

  18. The Rev Kev

    ‘Walter Kirn
    @walterkirn
    Strength Through Joy – Wikipedia
    (I knew there was something bugging me about this “joy” thing)’

    Going by memory here from my copy of “The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich.” So you had a lot of these camps for boys and teenagers out in the countryside as part of this ‘Strength Through Joy’ movement. You know, fresh air and exercise and all that. And often you would have nearby camps of girls and teenage girls as well for the same reason. And so nature would take it’s course leading to the saying (by memory)-

    ‘In the fields and in the woods,
    I lose strength through joy.’

    1. JBird4049

      Several days ago, I made a connection to Democratic Party strength through joy shtick with the phrase arbeit macht frei put over the entrance to Auschwitz. Of course, I think there is also a connection with the soldiers in the Israeli Defense Force posting pictures and videos of their various atrocities with the American lynching postcards, often sent through the US Mail, during the last part of the 19th and early part of the 20th centuries. Happy people with smiling children in their Sunday best next to murder victims. Then there was the occasional display of (often roasted) remains of the victims in the town center or local businesses.

      After the neo-eugenics associated with Covid, I really should not be surprised, but damn, the history that I know of is not history, isn’t? I have been informed by my family, my teachers, and all my reading about the darkness of the past. Kinda grim really. The phrase “never again” or “we will not forget” or some other quaint thing has often been said at the same time, but here we are, right back where we started. I guess that ignorance really is strength.

      All the darkness buried in the American past has spurted out onto everything. I wonder what my grandparents would say if they were still alive. I fear that we as a nation are already lost.

        2. hk

          I always wondered whoever that comes after the Age of Mammals will think our garbage is actually product of some sentient species….

      2. Acacia

        I have a vague memory that the Nazis had a couple of other three-word slogans… “Arbeit macht Frei” and “Kraft durch Freude” were the most well known.

    1. The Rev Kev

      The discovery process alone will be enough to nail the Biden/Harris admin against the wall.

    2. hk

      Harris will insist that she’s not part of the administration. She’s the clean slate and everything is on Biden and only Biden (that’s why he’s still the nominal president, isn’t it?) /sarc.

      Seriously, what a joke! Shame on us if enough Americans fall for this absurd scam.

      1. fjallstrom

        Just like Macron’s first run, the clean slate that just happened to be lead by a former minister from the outgoing administration.

    3. steppenwolf fetchit

      Didn’t the Cheney/bush Administration create free-wheeling self-propelled systems for putting people on these lists? If so, maybe a suit against Biden-Harris will force the revealment of those systems. And the people who run them.

  20. Jhallc

    Re: New York Covid Hospitalization data chart. If you open the link and sort for the last 6 months of data instead of 12 months it looks like the numbers are still rising. Not sure if I’m reading this correctly but, seems like it’s at its highest since 3/1/24.

      1. The Rev Kev

        Decades ago you had stories in the media from time to time of Russians and east Europeans fleeing to the west to freedom. It was kinda like a staple of the media at the time. Never thought that I would see a time where westerners would be fleeing to Russia for the same reason with people like Tara Reade, Edward Snowden and Eva Bartlett having to take this option. Then again, I did not expect the west to evolve into the USSR either. :)

        2. MFB

          James Blish, in his Cities In Flight series, set the fall of the west (the triumph of the bureaucratic state) in 2105. We seem to have jumped the gun slightly.

        3. The Volcano

          I recall having that exact feeling, that US and Russia had exchanged poles on the ideological spectrum when watching the HBO Chernobyl series. We have become Soviets here in the US

  23. Lena

    If so many people are experiencing tremendous “JOY!” over the crowning of Kamala, why has the Fear & Greed Index been in the Extreme Fear zone for quite a while now? Could this “JOY!” be somewhat less than authentic? Asking for a friend who isn’t self medicating.

    2. tegnost

      I’m glad to hear you’re self medicating
      I still think the helium in the kamala balloon will only get less buoyant ,but I was sure it was going to be hillary, in a blood red cape, playing the heel…

  24. Lunker Walleye

    Pierre Bonnard , Landing Stage, 1938-1939
    I cannot find what the original size was.
    After looking at this a while:
    Quite an abstract painting for its time.
    The beautiful sky is made up of mostly horizontal strokes. The pale green and off-white stripe makes the horizon.
    The periwinkle waters are choppy.
    The composition is split vertically by a mast and a curving, bridge painted in pale yellow green. It’s a striking interruption.
    People mostly dressed in black are in the boats. Is that sail cloth in front of the man in a bowler-like hat draped over the pier railing? Or is it a ghostly figure that wasn’t filled in?

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