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2:00PM Water Cooler 8/19/2024

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By Lambert Strether of Corrente

Bird Song of the Day

Still with the Thrashers!

California Thrasher, Daley Ranch, San Diego, California, United States.

* * *

In Case You Might Miss…

  1. Updated Covid data: First sighting of XDV.1 variant from China.
  2. A campaign scenario and the Democrat National Convention.
  3. Israel accepts US ceasefire proposal (nice timing).

* * *

Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

* * *

2024

Less than one hundred days to go!

Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:

There is no good news here for Trump. The deterioration in both Pennsylvania and Georgia is especially marked. Remember, however, that all the fluctuations — in fact, all the leads — are within the margin of error. So the “joy” is based on, well, vibes.

* * *

The Democrat National Convention:

Lambert here: Let’s start out by examining the state of play. Here’s a scenario based on the idea that nothing much structural has changed from 2020; and that the election will come down to a few hundred thousand voters in more or less the same swing states. (I have heard the theory put forth that this is not the Kamala campaign’s theory of the case; that “joy,” vibes, and memes change the electoral map across the board, and perhaps that will be sufficient in a “100 Days” campaign. I’m not sure how strongly that theory is held outside the Blue Bubble, however; it is true that Trump has slipped in the polls, but is the race no longer close? No. So for now, I’m sticking to the original scenario.) Read from left to right, top to bottom. Captions are beneath each map:

TABLE 0: An Electoral College Scenario

270toWin 270toWin Enhanced by Sabato
270toWin’s default map as of August 14, 2024. 270toWin’s default map polarized into red, blue, and swing by old-timer Larry Sabato (August 7).
Sabato Annotated Endgame
Yellow box: <5% margin 2020; red percent: Trump lead (RCP); blue percent: Kamala lead (RCP). Give Trump AZ and NV, where he is ahead (252). Give Kamala WI and MI where she is ahead (251). If Trump wins PA, his total is 271. If Kamala, 270. Hence, PA is helpfully highlighted.
If the Election Were Held Today… 2020 Results
The result if we give Trump every swing state where he leads today. For comparison purposes….

Now let’s talk about Pennsylvania. Interestingly, the Uncommitted Delegates and the Palestinian cause already have a voice inside the all at the Democrat National Convention:

(Readers will recall that Sanders tried to install Keith Ellison after 2016, but the Democrats threw Ellison under the bus in favor of the reptilian Tom Perez.) So what can Kamala give them? First, how many of the “Uncommitted” voters are there? Michigan: 100,000+; Wisconsin, 47,800 (Minnesota 40,000 but not a swing state.) Further, the “Uncommitted” voters tend to be from the activist class of the party. Now, let’s look at Pennsylvania. From the American Jewish Population Project (2020):

That’s 232,000. Assume 70% vote (high), that’s 162,400. Assume another 70% are Zionist or Zionist-adjacent. That’s 113,680. So the numbers in the upper Midwest and Pennsylvania are roughly comparable. All other things being equal, I believe Kamala would take the AIPAC money and throw the activists (and that ex-Sanders dude) under the bus. In a nano-second! But all other things are not equal; she needs — as the “End Game” map shows — both Pennsylvania and the Midwest.

Speculating freely: I think Kamala first “secured her rear” in the upper Midwest. That’s what Walz was all about. That was in fact wise; she’s now ahead there, “Uncommitted” voters aside. She can further cool the Uncommitted Delegates by offering them meaningless concessions; “listening,” a speech from the floor, face time with the candidate, a promise that Biden is working the problem hard (and who knows, he might actually deliver a ceasefire, meaningless though that is in the face of a determined genocidaire). Having solidified the upper Midwest, she goes after Pennsylvania. (It’s excruciatingly interesting to me that the aspect of Kamala’s campaign that is meme-driven (the couch; “weird”) is strongly reminiscent of the brilliant campaign run by Fetterman’s social media team.) NOTE Why not Shapiro? The Midwest was first, and Walz helped there; Shapiro’s hard to work with (IIRC, he had “schedule problems” this week and couldn’t help Kamala campaign); and the campaign staff must have felt they could do the job without him (after all, Biden Pennsylvania in in 2020).

* * *

Kamala (D): “Democratic National Committee delegates will vote on the party’s 2024 platform at its convention on Monday evening, according to officials. A full, 92-page draft platform was unveiled by the party late on Sunday night” [ABC]. “Democratic National Committee delegates will vote on the party’s 2024 platform at its convention on Monday evening, according to officials. A full, 92-page draft platform was unveiled by the party late on Sunday night.” • Plenty of time to read it! Institutionally, the past few years have been an interesting time for the Democrat Party: There was no convention in 2020, and the Democrats were able to wrap Biden in tissue paper for the entire campaign. Then in 2024, there were no primaries worthy of the name. Then Kamala was annointed by a very small group of Inner Party insiders (Pelosi, Obama, Schumer), and became a Presidential candidate without having faced the voters and won a single primary running for President, either in 2020 or 2024, and the entire party instantly fell in line. Kamala immediately took control of the campaign cash, and a few days later was formally elected at a virtual convention. There is, then no purpose whatever for the convention in Chicago; it is purely vestigial, a specatacle (a spectacle that can be interfered with, of course). I feel certain that the Inner Party like it this way, and that “primary” “campaigns” like this will become the new normal. Meanwhile, there’s a good deal on Israsel in the plagform, but these two sections seem salient:

Whatever “a political horizon for the Palestinian people” might mean. And:

(Readers know, I am sure, how to assess “conflict-related sexual violence.) Wowsers, I haven’t heard that nauseating phrase “a time of war” since the days of Bush the Younger. Memories! (To be fair, “concessions” would be made to the Uncommitted delegates by modifying some of the wording. If there’s time [hilarity ensues].)

Kamala (D): “Thousands of activists expected in Chicago for Democratic convention to call for Gaza cease-fire” [Associated Press]. “Demonstrations are expected every day of the convention and, while their agendas vary, many activists agree an immediate cease-fire in the Israel-Hamas war is the priority.” • Assuming the AP is represening the demands of the protesters accurately, that’s what Biden says he wants too. So we’re all agreed then? Here is the photo from the AP article:

This is at least not tightly focused, but wide angle. However, only an aerial photo can show the true size of a crowd.

Kamala (D): “Blinken says Israel has accepted US-backed proposal for a cease-fire, calls on Hamas to do same” [New York Post]. “His announcement came after negotiators gathered last week to discuss the US-back, UN-approved deal, with Hamas choosing to forgo the meeting after it accused the Jewish state of changing what was on the table. The US-backed proposal seeks to impose a six-week pause in fighting so as to allow Israel and Hamas to discuss a hostage exchange, all while allowing Palestinian refugees to return to their homes and receive more aid. Hamas has allegedly dropped its demands for the immediate cease-fire to be permanent, but the terror group has previously stated that the deal should include wording to establish an end to the war. It remains unclear if such a change was added to the agreement or if the terror group would finally accept the deal. Hamas also accused Israel of now demanding its military keep a presence along the Gaza-Egypt border, where large terror tunnel systems have been recently found, to prevent arms smuggling.” • Brilliant timing, I must say (and putting the demonstrators in the position of arguing that Hamas has not accepted the ceasefire for good reason which, though probably true, is a heavy lift for the average voter. “Why aren’t your demonstrating against Hamas,” and so forth).

Kamala (D): Interestingly, the National Guard has already been activated:

The Campaign Trail:

Kamala:

Kamala (D): “Walz responds to GOP criticism of how Harris laughs: ‘She has a joy emanating out of her'” [National Post]. “‘They’re on her because she laughs,; Walz, the Minnesota governor, told a meeting of the Hispanic Caucus during Monday’s first day of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago. ‘My god. I’ll take someone who laughs any damn day of the week.’ He continued of Harris, ‘She has a joy emanating out of her.'” • Brilliant leveraging/reframing of the “joy” talking point; Walz sure is quick on his feet.

Kamala (D): “The Intense Process of Designing Political Campaign Logos” [Kottke.org]. “The current Harris/Walz logo is based on the design of Harris’s presidential campaign materials from 2020, which ‘smartly riffed on the 1972 Shirley Chisholm campaign.'” • Oh.

Trump: [sigh]. Maybe tomorrow.

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

* * *

Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

* * *

Elite Maleficence

Loss of executive function at CDC:

(On Instagram, which I can’t get to, but confirmed by several Twitter accounts.)

* * *

TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

Lambert here: Worth noting that national Emergency Room admissions are as high as they were in the first wave, in 2020.

Wastewater
This week[1] CDC August 5: Last Week[2] CDC July 22 (until next week):

Variants★ [3] CDC August 10 Emergency Room Visits[4]★ CDC August 10

Hospitalization
★ New York[5] New York State, data August 16: ★National [6] CDC July 27:

Positivity
National[7] Walgreens August 13: ★ Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic August 10:

Travelers Data
★ Positivity[9] CDC July 29: ★ Variants[10] CDC July 29:

Deaths
Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11]CDC July 27: Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12]CDC July 27:

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, with hot spots annotated. Keeps spreading.

[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* very popular. First showing of the new variant from China, XDV.1 (though it didn’t appear in traveler’s data).

[4] (ER) Worth noting Emergency Department use is now on a par with the first wave, in 2020.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Going down. Doesn’t need to be a permanent thing, of course. (The New York city area has form; in 2020, as the home of two international airports (JFK and EWR) it was an important entry point for the virus into the country (and from thence up the Hudson River valley, as the rich sought to escape, and then around the country through air travel.)

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). The visualization suppresses what is, in percentage terms, a significant increase.

[7] (Walgreens) Fiddling and diddling.

[8] (Cleveland) Jumping.

[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Up. Those sh*theads at CDC have changed the chart so that it doesn’t even run back to 1/21/23, as it used to, but now starts 1/1/24. There’s also no way to adjust the time range. CDC really doesn’t want you to be able to take a historical view of the pandemic, or compare one surge to another. In an any case, that’s why the shape of the curve has changed.

[10] (Travelers: Variants) The new variant in China, XDV.1, is not showing up here.

[11] Deaths low, but positivity up.

[12] Deaths low, ED up.

Stats Watch

There are no statistics of interest today.

* * *

The Bezzle:

* * *

Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 41 Fear (previous close: 35 Fear) [CNN]. One week ago: 21 (Extreme Fear). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Aug 19 at 3:00:51 PM ET.

Gallery

“They Who Cannot”:

Zeitgeist Watch

“Commodified fantasy”:

The Kids Are Alright:

News of the Wired

I hope I haven’t run this already:

* * *

Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From EM:

EM writes: “This year’s late spring rain came at an opportune time for our Monarda (Bee Balm), which has nearly reached 5 feet high. Hummingbirds are loving this. Zooming into the lower right corner of the Monarda stand one can see milkweed, planted last year, peeking out next to the coreopsis. Also, our first year to grow sunflowers. Sadly, each year it seems the bee population dwindles but we try our best to sustain them. For reference, standing at a mere 5′-3” is Mrs. “NYT_Memes”. Late June and early July have been hot in Beaverton as we wait for the A/C man to come to the rescue. I do not know if you prefer not having any humans in plant photos. I could retake if you wish since I also see that I cropped the top of the sunflowers, plus the red gladiolus is in the shade.”

* * *

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About Lambert Strether

Readers, I have had a correspondent characterize my views as realistic cynical. Let me briefly explain them. I believe in universal programs that provide concrete material benefits, especially to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime example, but tuition-free college and a Post Office Bank also fall under this heading. So do a Jobs Guarantee and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can deliver on such programs, because the two are different flavors of neoliberalism (“Because markets”). I don’t much care about the “ism” that delivers the benefits, although whichever one does have to put common humanity first, as opposed to markets. Could be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don’t much care, as long as the benefits are delivered. To me, the key issue — and this is why Medicare for All is always first with me — is the tens of thousands of excess “deaths from despair,” as described by the Case-Deaton study, and other recent studies. That enormous body count makes Medicare for All, at the very least, a moral and strategic imperative. And that level of suffering and organic damage makes the concerns of identity politics — even the worthy fight to help the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton’s wars created — bright shiny objects by comparison. Hence my frustration with the news flow — currently in my view the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the other by out-of-power liberals and their allies in the State and in the press — a news flow that constantly forces me to focus on matters that I regard as of secondary importance to the excess deaths. What kind of political economy is it that halts or even reverses the increases in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I am also very hopeful that the continuing destruction of both party establishments will open the space for voices supporting programs similar to those I have listed; let’s call such voices “the left.” Volatility creates opportunity, especially if the Democrat establishment, which puts markets first and opposes all such programs, isn’t allowed to get back into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I love the tactical level, and secretly love even the horse race, since I’ve been blogging about it daily for fourteen years, but everything I write has this perspective at the back of it.

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91 comments

  1. Roger Blakely

    Los Angeles Times: ‘A much more infectious’ COVID variant fueling California’s relentless surge

    https://www.aol.com/news/much-more-infectious-covid-variant-100023970.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAADbfMbBfHa7vua4hySZ3mL4ejTXOeJlkf8LEiC9uSxlkuqKWVqck10x906kvJintKV4I8olj-ZM3YT4wlqALr38tqzw09AnLNiXaxWboqOWLH5y4e82cwuDqKc001I6Lfm93aZQdet2jNuw_zxm5xV9LhFv02xOGixJPxE6y5lqP

    “Coronavirus levels in wastewater have already blown past the peaks for the prior two summers, as well as the winter of 2022 to 23.”

    “There are few signs that the surge is losing steam.”

      1. Lambert Strether Post author

        I think the table is in conflict with the vibe. But while the table conflicts with the total popular vote, that’s a meaningless figure. As far as Swing States go, the table is poll-driven (sadly).

        1. fjallstrom

          The vibes and hype is driving the polls, not the other way around. Every poll that goes in the right direction will be used to further the vibes and hype, the other will be ignored.

          Be on the winning team! Be normal, not weird!

          And it seems to be working. I think the campaign must have hired some talented people long before Biden stepped down, and they had a plan ready to roll out.

  3. antidlc

    https://citiusmag.com/articles/noah-lyles-covid-paris-olympics-200m-final-details-nightcap-podcast
    Noah Lyles Details Racing With COVID At The Paris Olympics

    I’m just going to let you know, there were a lot of people in the village who had COVID that just didn’t say it. I’m just the most popular person who got COVID and actually said I had it. Because of that, it stirs up a lot of controversy in itself.

    As soon as I heard I got COVID and I was able to compete, I said ‘I am going to try.’ I’m not promised tomorrow, so I’m going to take advantage of what I have today. The fact that I was able to get to the finals and still grab bronze, that was a medal I could’ve easily just said ‘Nah I got the gold, I’m good.’ No! I’m here now, I fought for this for 4 years. I trained for this for 4 years. Why not take the opportunity?”

    And how many people did he infect for “the opportunity”?

    1. Roger Blakely

      I think that we are past the stage of worrying about individuals with COVID. SARS-CoV-2 is everywhere. If it is in every indoor space and every subway train, and if people are not wearing respirators and goggles (no one is wearing anything), then what difference does it make if this person or that person is spewing SARS-CoV-2 out of his or her nose and mouth?

      1. lambert strether

        But Lyles is not merely an “individual.” He is a celebrity, and human nature being what it is, the behavior he models will influence others, for good or ill.

  4. Bugs

    Dear Lambert, I love how you cover the horse race aspect of this 2024 Presidential Sweepstakes. Really exciting to watch it all play out and compare your data analysis with the “vibe” in social media etc. Always look forward to checking in. My personal view is that Kami will hit 5% over Trump in late October and stabilize there, winning by a hair.

    Chapeau, mon ami.

    1. Lambert Strether Post author

      > I love how you cover the horse race aspect of this 2024 Presidential Sweepstakes.

      [lambert blushes modestly]

      The fog of war is really bad this year. Clearly away the fog is laborious.

        2. Randall Flaggg

          Agreed as well and if we can should send some water cooler cash, Lambert’s yellow waders have to be wearing out by now…

    2. Jason Boxman

      The laugh seems fitting, as a sign of joy, since here’s a politician that hooked up to get hooked up with her first political position, delivered for the wealthy while in power, was tapped by the Hamptons crowd for the presidency, and ultimately as VP to Biden who clearly was already losing his mind in 2020, got appointed as the Democrat Party presidential candidate, without any primary whatsoever, after Biden finally implodes, well after any opportunity for an actual primary campaign.

      To the extent that swing voters don’t care about internal Democrat Party politics, and liberal Democrats on the margins know they have nowhere else to go, and because Trump, there’s a solid chance Kamala and the Hamptons crowd prevails here, because this is the stupidest timeline.

      Joy indeed. I would be beaming!

    3. NotTimothyGeithner

      A win by one is as valid as a win by a 1000. Trump has nowhere to go. Biden had troubles before October, but he needed a genocide to go below Trump.

      The structural problem of a national party running on impressing incels limits the problem. There is still room for collapse but Biden had just run everything into the ground.

    1. The Rev Kev

      The last time the Germans deployed to Lithuania, they were not so well received. But that was back in the 40s so obviously the Lithuanians have forgotten that little episode.

      1. hk

        I seem to remember that they were quite well received, although not as well as in Latvia and Estonia. After all, Germans defeated the Lithuanians’ hated Polish oppressors, then liberated them from the Russian enemies.

  6. Cian

    FWIW, if polling undercounts Trump voters as much as it did in the last two elections then Kamala’s toast. She needs to be showing a 4-5% lead.

    1. Lambert Strether Post author

      The pollsters do adjust, though. I think the larger issue is that the pollsters are all players now, just like the press. I can more or less dope out press manipulations, but doping out polling is more time-consuming (if anyone has a great source for this — not Nate Silver, some basement fanatic — I’ll gladly look at them).

    2. Martin Oline

      In 2016 the ‘polling’ under count or shy voter, whichever you prefer, was 9% off. In 2020 it was 5% off. Hopium says that is a trend and it will only be 1% this year. Realistically I would say modern polling is only an industry that sells product to the consumer. They will try to keep the customer satisfied and tell you what you want to hear. Polling is also a time sensitive item. Old polls are mostly useless. The People’s Pundit drops videos about polling on YouTube every week and is about five days old now so there should be a new one soon.

  8. Ben Panga

    Lambert what do you think of the “Shy Trumper” thing. Philip Pilkington gives the opening section of his podcast to it and estimates it still represents a between 3 and 8 percent hidden swing to Trump.

    I am very underqualified to assess his claim.

    1. Lambert Strether Post author

      > Shy Trumper

      I think it was certainly true in 2016. I don’t know if it’s true today, though it might be. I have a framework for such issues but it’s in line behind the Convention, various plagues, posting, etc. Hopefully this week.

  9. steppenwolf fetchit

    Perhaps Pritzker has called out some National Guard for another and unstated reason . . . to passively protect the protesters from the Chicago Police Department running amok against the protesters on Live TV.
    The Guards’ presence might have an all around deterring effect against the CPD, various Black Bloccers, and other seekers after violence.

  11. Ben Panga

    “Brilliant leveraging/reframing of the “joy” talking point; Walz sure is quick on his feet.”

    I’ve wondered before if the whole “joy” thing was created with at least half a mind to turning Kamala’s compulsive laughter into a positive.

    1. Michael Fiorillo

      A prosecutors cackling laughter suggests a “joy” I want no part of.

      The #McResistance cattle who’ve turned on a dime – Harris was universally seen as a liability before Biden’s debate performance – in relief/belief that Bombala will defeat Trump are self-deluded and embarrassing beyond description.

      Stupidest timeline, stupidest country…

      1. Lefty Godot

        Harris is a joke candidate, but she could still win the popular vote thanks to all the media gaslighting. I still expect Trump to win the electoral vote, because the Democrats keep forgetting all about their severe Electoral College problem a few months after every presidential election. Trump and Harris are both buffoons and RFKjr is the sleazy used car salesman you want to get away from within minutes of stepping on the lot. This is “our democracy” that must be defended at all costs (censorship, deplatforming, Quiet Skies, FBI raids, etc.).

        1. lambert strether

          > Democrats keep forgetting all about their severe Electoral College problem a few months after every presidential election

          See Table 0. IMNSHO it will be close in the electoral college as well, especially if Trump uses his time out of the spotlight to good effect

    3. Lambert Strether Post author

      > was created with at least half a mind to turning Kamala’s compulsive laughter into a positive.

      Could have been workshopped, for sure, but I think the conceptualization is not narrow but grows from traditions of the party today’s Democrats still believe themselves to be part of. “The politics of joy” goes all the way back to Hubert Humphrey in 1968, the poor bastard. I think it’s also mentally adjacent to Al Smith in the FDR era, “the Happy Warrior.”*

      NOTE * I discovered that the phrase comes from Wordsworth’s “The Character of the Happy Warrior,” a horrid effusion that seems to be written on yards of flannel, a commemoration of the death of Lord Nelson (as if either of those two politicians could hold a candle to Nelson).

      1. Swamp Yankee

        Re: Walz’s quickness on his feat.

        I say this as an assessment of Walz’s ability as a politician (politician as a vocation, as Weber would put it): I think being a teacher is extremely helpful for developing this quickness on his feet.

        When you are a teacher — for any subject, really, but I think esp. for subjects like history/social studies and English, where you have to use language rather than numbers to describe things — you are constantly being asked questions, by people who are generally a cross section of the population, and the questions are often a) good; b) crazy; c) bad; d) some combination of the above.

        Doing this day in and day out makes you quick on your feet rhetorically.

        And yes, I have taught in different capacities for a number of years now, so take this with several grains of salt, if you wish.

        1. Screwball

          When you are a teacher — for any subject, really, but I think esp. for subjects like history/social studies and English, where you have to use language rather than numbers to describe things — you are constantly being asked questions, by people who are generally a cross section of the population, and the questions are often a) good; b) crazy; c) bad; d) some combination of the above.

          Funny, school started today for this teacher. I agree with what you say. I’m a STEM class but it still applies.

          The best part of being a teacher is being the student.

        2. lambert strether

          Excellent point. Walz also has a great track record as a teacher (a thread I had to leave on the cutting room floor and will try to recover and splice in). His wife was even better. IIRC she coached the debate team, which had 40 members (!!).

          “Weird,” which Walz coined and propagated, is also totally a high school-level insult, i.e. inspired by his former domain.

          I keep insisting that Walz is the only truly formidable candidate in the campaign (“The Resistable Rise of Tim Walz”). Look at his career trajectory and compare it to Kamala’s. We’ll see how he does in his speech this week.

      1. mrsyk

        This musical stinks.
        Curious banner for the pro-Palestinian march. Why is “lgbtq+” there? Not that I’m against it, just curious.

        1. hk

          There was some Israeli propaganda that featured a presumed gay IDF soldier raising a rainbow flag over some ruins in Gaza, IIRC. There are some, eh, interesting cross currents here.

  12. Wukchumni

    Joy to the world Kamala has come
    Let Harris receive her brass ring
    Let every heart prepare her arrival soon
    And heaven and nature sing
    And heaven and nature sing
    And heaven and heaven and nature sing

    We will sing, sing, sing
    Joy to the world
    We will sing, sing, sing

    Joy to the world when Kamala reigns
    Let men such as Obama their stratagem employ
    While fields and floods rocks hills and plains
    Repeat the sounding joy
    Repeat the sounding joy
    Repeat, repeat the sounding joy

    We will sing, sing, sing
    Joy to the world
    We will sing, sing, sing

    She will rule the world with truth and grace
    And makes the nations prove
    The glories of her righteousness
    And wonders of her love
    And wonders of her love
    And wonders, wonders of her love

    Joy to the world
    We will sing, sing, sing

    Joyful, joyful we adore thee
    Got of glory, Lord of Gov
    And hearts unfold like lemmings before thee
    Opening to the plan above

    2. ChrisFromGA

      Appreciate the continued focus on the absurdity of it all.

      I caught this headline in the Times of Israel:

      AOC tells DNC that Harris ‘working tirelessly to secure a ceasefire, bring the hostages home’

      I mean, you can’t write comedy material that good. This stuff is comedy gold, especially coming out of the mouth of AOC. She’s following Sanders like a good sheep dog!

  13. lyman alpha blob

    RE: cease fire in Gaza

    While a stoppage of hostilities is necessary, I really grow tired of all this talk from the Democrat party of a cease fire, when it was they who perpetrated this war by continuing to supply arms for an ongoing genocide. A cease fire doesn’t absolve them of war crimes, and it won’t bring back the tens or hundreds of thousands of dead Palestinians.

    But they’ll give lip service to it at the DNC convention, and all the rubes who will dutifully vote for the midwit candidate chosen for them by their Democrat betters will lap it up like kittens with a bowl of warm milk. When I was young I wondered how the Nazis were able to take over a country filled with otherwise decent people. I no longer wonder now that I’ve seen the playbook repeated in my own time.

    I despair for this entire world when as the poet said, the “best” lack all conviction.

    1. Stephen V

      …while the worst
      Are full of passionate intensity.
      So they are framing Hamas as not wanting a ceasefire? They are (according to Mahmood OD on YouTube entitled DECEIT & DISHONESTY) not wanting to be part of this charade. Are we to suddenly forget the daily unfolding of escalating horror bcz Blinken is waving around a piece of paper? My sense is the protestors are not in a joyful compromising mood at this point.

    2. hk

      As I understand it, the Hamas’ “opposition” to ceasefire is that they actually want guarantees, that ceasefire will stay in place and that somebody will undertake to guarantee that Israelis will hold up their end of the bargain. To railroad that as “opposition” is true to the form for the Democrats.

      2. The Rev Kev

        That proposal says ‘while allowing Palestinian refugees to return to their homes and receive more aid.’ In other words, as soon as Israel gets its hostages back, they will start bombing Palestinians again to force them to move from one area to another to another which would make aid deliveries impossible. This proposal has Netanyahu written all over it.

      3. ChrisFromGA

        This whole rotten gang of Biden, Blinken, Netanyahu, and now Harris, deserve an Academy Award for Chutzpah.

        Remember, back in July when Biden announced this exact same deal, pretty much, he and Blinken went to great lengths to falsely claim that it had Netanyahu’s stamp of approval. He denied it within hours, IIRC. Then, they took an earlier Israeli proposal that hadn’t even been officially approved by Bibi and his cabinet and presented it to the negotiators in Qatar as if it were a good-faith offer.

        That sort of dirty pool belongs in an episode of “Better Call Saul.”

        Now, 45 or so days later, they claim Israel accepted a deal that they already accepted back in July? Do they think everybody has the attention span of a Golden Retreiver?

        The sooner this gang goes, the better.

    3. curlydan

      This sounds/smells a lot like the 2000 Israeli-Palestine negotiations–basically, we agree to Netanyahu’s ceasefire proposal and call it done. Based on a U.S. negotiator’s insider account from then:
      “[G]iven [the U.S. team’s] unwillingness to adopt independent bridging proposals, particularly those that departed from Barak’s, we were stuck. Our no-surprise policy with Israel, which in essence meant showing everything first to Israel, and Clinton’s unwillingness, in his words, to “jam” Barak, stripped away any hope of being an effective mediator. By day four—when we gave Barak a paper he forced us to amend—for all practical purposes the summit came to an end.”

      https://carnegieendowment.org/posts/2020/07/lost-in-the-woods-a-camp-david-retrospective?lang=en

      1. ChrisFromGA

        I think it is even dirtier. From a commenter named “Tobias Cole” on the MoA blog:

        It was Bibi and the War Cabinet that rejected that original Biden proposal, not Hamas/PIJ.

        Now in a perfect bait and switch scam, Blinken wants Hamas to accept the modified bridging proposal also approved by Bibi, which would basically close all international access to Gaza and divide and or partition Gaza on an east west line at the main highway……..so no port access, Rafah basically closed under IDF control, the airport to remain closed, and the Egyptian border sealed.

        In other words Gaza would be completely cut off from all international humanitarian relief, divided and subject to unending airstrikes and occupation by IDF war criminals……geez what is not to like about this bridge…….?

        So it is even worse than I described above.

        1. Biden announces a ceasefire proposal in early July. Netanyahu repudiates it.
        2. Biden, Blinken try to pressure Netanyahu by claiming that he agreed to it when he clearly did not. Partly by leaking an unapproved draft document not signed by Bibi (I’ll have a side of “Fraud in the Factum” with my Deluxe Baconator.)
        3. Blinken spends his summer bullying Hamas to accept an agreement Israel never agreed to.
        4. Hamas gets wise, says give me Biden 1.0 or eff off.
        5. When this fails, they come up with the brilliant idea of a “modified bridging agreement” with even worse terms for Hamas.
        6. Israel now says they accept that, but Netanyahu already is sabotaging it. Meanwhile, Hamas wants nothing to do with it.
        7. You are here!

        (Dead cat diplomacy: The game is to leave the other side with a “dead cat” on their doorstep so that they can get blamed for it.)

    4. Victor Sciamarelli

      Leave aside for a moment that the US asserts it alone, and not the UN or any other nation or group of nations, is authorized to negotiate a ceasefire.
      And consider the facts that the US provides weapons to Israel, provides diplomatic cover at the UN, and provides backup with increased naval support in the Mediterranean. The US, in fact, is in a position to simply ‘declare’ a ceasefire, rather than claim it must negotiate and reach an agreement.
      Moreover, when the US relinquished its right to declare a ceasefire, and allowed Israel the right to how and when it will agree to it, the US guaranteed a ceasefire will never happen.

    1. lyman alpha blob

      Thanks for the link – I didn’t know either. I hope they’re letting the Democrat party have it today.

      I see that google is expanding its gracious assistance with putting the news in context for us rubes, not just warning about Boris and Natasha now, but also letting us know that Al Jazeera is funded by the Qataris

      Wake me up when google lets us know that google is funded in whole or in part by the US government

  16. Jason Boxman

    Gotta love this

    Hamas has allegedly dropped its demands for the immediate cease-fire to be permanent, but the terror group has previously stated that the deal should include wording to establish an end to the war.

    (bold mine)

    Meanwhile, Israel has literally leveled Gaza and bombs at will. Both are terrorist groups, but as usual it is the nation-state with the means to conduct terror operations in perpetuity and at scale.

  17. Jason Boxman

    A random couldn’t sleep thought: With SARS-COV-2 running rampant in schools and its known proclivity to cause immune disregulation, to what extent do previously effective vaccinations still work today? For example MMR is a standard vaccination that everyone has gotten for quite a while now; Can we count on this to actually still work as it used to? Does T-cell disregulation not affect it? Perhaps if this was a dire thing, we’d have evidence of it by now; I haven’t heard of anything so far, not at a scale to suggest this is an issue. But one has to wonder.

    And this ignores a growing distrust of vaccination in general, a problem in its own right that we can thank The Democrats and Biden for.

  18. griffen

    Fear and greed index…well it appears we are back into full on “tulip bulbs far as the eyes can see” based on my reading of today’s closing levels…SP 500 closed above 5,600…and Mr market for 30 worthy companies the Dow Jones within shouting distance of 41,000.

    For what’s it worth…the markets are notoriously volatile markers by late August into the early weeks of October.

    1. skippy

      “The vessel Lynch was on, the Bayesian”

      Wellie there is my morning NC/WC mirth for the day ….

      Wonder if the crew and passengers pondered the statistical probability of freak storm and tornado off of Sicily.

    2. Ben Panga

      “Super rich guy facing extradition on fraud charges, disappears in boat misfortune” already seemed…. intriguing in a Robert Maxwell kinda way.

      Then I saw this :

      “Hours after news of the sinking broke it emerged that his co-defendant at that trial, Stephen Chamberlain, had died after being hit by a car while out running in Cambridgeshire.

      Chamberlain, the former vice-president of finance at Autonomy, was hit on Saturday morning…”

      Now my Epstein Scale radar is fully activated.

      1. Bugs

        Seems like an odd revenge for accounting fraud. I remember this case very clearly because the Autonomy products were hot garbage that was so badly written that it couldn’t scale. Before the sale to HP, my evil multinational licensed it for a document file and search use case and it crashed daily. Cost a cool million a year for 2000 users. I was astonished when HP paid $11b for it, but this was during the period when the CEO was that nutjob who turned it into a printer cartridge supplier. There’s got to be more to the story but I don’t think anyone is going to care enough to figure it out.

      2. griffen

        Interesting…what a tangled web one can weave…shades of a few key pivotal scenes out of the ever excellent Michael Clayton?

        In particular once the lawyer finally does turn against the corporation poisoning the land and the water of rural people and farming families. Tom Wilkinson was such a splendid fit to that role, along with others in the film.

  20. Lunker Walleye

    Harris/Walz logo is based on the design of Harris’s presidential campaign materials from 2020, which ‘smartly riffed on the 1972 Shirley Chisholm campaign.’” • Oh.
    If only Camel Lah was anything like Chisholm.

    1. Pat

      The attempt to make that comparison has always rankled. Harris doesn’t have a speck of what Chisholm had. And I don’t just mean integrity.

    2. t

      Kind of an echo of the LA Guin quote above from the wonderful John the Duncan. Goons dressing up and expecting people to be inspired.

  21. ambrit

    The oxford comma picture begs for a rewriting. Make that penultimate line, “…Ayn Rand and other Gods.”

  22. Carolinian

    Monday Crooke

    For the avoidance of confusion, the American Straussians – today usually called ‘neo-cons’ – are not in principle opposed to the Netanyahu government’s Nakba agenda. It was not Gazans suffering that exercised them; rather, it was the threats by the Revisionist Zionists to launch an attack on Iran and on Lebanon. For, were this war to be launched, the Israeli army – for certain – would not be able to defeat Hezbollah on its own. And for Israel to wage war on Iran would amount to certifiable madness.

    Thus to save Israel, the U.S. undoubtedly would be forced to intervene. The balance of military power has shifted considerably towards both Hizbullah and Iran since the Israeli-Lebanese war of 2006 and any war now would be a fraught and risky undertaking.

    Yet – this was of the essence to the Israeli government’s unspoken ‘esoteric’ (inner) agenda.

    Crooke says devotion to secret agendas was the essence of Leo Strauss’ Chicago teachings. The problem for the latter day followers is how to achieve the greater Israel goal without help. DCians are starting to get wise to what is really at play.

    https://strategic-culture.su/news/2024/08/19/revisionist-zionists-dare-us-to-pull-the-plug-on-their-nakba-agenda/

  23. Wukchumni

    I read the news today, oh boy
    About a plucky man who made more mental mistakes
    And though the news was rather sad
    Well, I just had to laugh
    He saw dead in the aftermath

    He blew his mind out as is par
    He didn’t notice that the names had changed
    A crowd of leaders stood and stared
    They’d seen his miscues before
    Nobody was really sure if he had lost his gourd

    I saw a video of him today, oh boy
    He called Sisi the President of Mexico
    A crowd of leaders turned awry
    But I just had to look
    Having read about the crook
    I’d love to have the public turn on you

    Woke up, fell out of bed
    Dragged a comb across my head
    Found my way downstairs and drank a cup
    And looking up, I noticed the hour was late
    Found my laptop and petted the cat
    Opened the internet in seconds flat
    Found my way upstairs and had a smoke
    And Biden misspoke and I went into a dream

    I read the news today, oh boy
    40 thousand burial holes in Gaza, the length of shear
    And though the holes were rather small
    They had to count them all
    Now they know how many holes it takes to fill the IDF reprisal haul
    I’d love to have the public turn on you

    A Day in the Life, by the Beatles

  24. hk

    Watching the Taibbi/Kirn live podcasting and it seems that Kirn is really ticked off by the obvious phoniness of the Walz acts (and the goings on at DNC). I’m neither white nor Midwesterner, but I’m 100% in agreement with him for much the same reasons. Curious how common this is among hte commentariat here, granted that this is not a very representative lot.

      1. Expat2uruguay

        Sorry, it’s not possible to timestamp a video that’s live on YouTube…. I tried but I don’t think it worked.

      1. Late Introvert

        “even Trump may now have faced more gunfire than Walz”

        why use may? Trump has faced more gunfire than literally everyone who isn’t VFW. Why his campaign isn’t showing that video of him yelling fight! with his fist in the air is a mystery. Not that I’m closely following his campaign, just here on NC.

    4. Expat2uruguay

      Walter Kirn: she has a strange advantage: she’s running with both the power of the incumbent and the dazzle of the newcomer challenger….
      snip … Trump has to depend on people being a little bummed out …And it gets better @1:23:44

      https://www.youtube.com/live/TNbOIUfGRXw

      ATW night 1 of the democratic national convention with Matt Taibbi and Walter Kirn

      1. hk

        That is the bizarro thing that I can’t believe could be possibly true. Unless we have zero brain left anywhere in this country…because we already ate them all. I am worried, though, that that actually might be true.

  25. John k

    Great work with the election updates. Thanks.
    Are two EC votes in Maine swing votes? Some maps show them going dem, some rep, and in one combination it could get trump to the magic 270. Ah, the gnashing of teeth…

  26. steppenwolf fetchit

    Here is an interesting video from TikTokCringe subreddit titled ” Why you shouldn’t slam the door of your cybertruck”. Now the question is . . . is this real and representative of the quality involved, or was this staged before shooting to make cybertruck look bad? I don’t know enough to know. Still . . . this seems interesting for somebody to follow up on.

    Here is the link.
    https://www.reddit.com/r/TikTokCringe/comments/1ew125g/why_you_shouldnt_slam_the_door_of_your_cybertruck/

    ( the first comment in this entry’s comment thread offers some worthwhile background on who/what/where this video comes from).

    1. Pat

      I saw one on the street a couple of days ago. Besides the weird design that looks like aerodynamic design and box design had a bastard child, from maybe ten feet away it actually looks cheap. Impressions aren’t proof, but I would have no problem believing cheap plastic was the go to anywhere possible.

    1. hk

      There is something more than just the legendary quasi Biblical ancestry that Prestowitz recounts. For instance, there was a Palestinian Catholic family in my old parish who claimed to be of the Tribe of Daoud (that’s David in English). Whatever the truth might be, their forefathers were from Bethlehem, or so I was told, and it’s not too unreasonable–whatever did become of old Jews who became Christian or Muslim and, eventually, became Arabized? Why, we’d call them Palestinians. My sense is that there’s pretty strong genetic evidence that Palestinians and Jews are basically the same people, no? There is a distinct Cain-Abel dimension to this, to stay in the Biblical realm…

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