Yves here. This post below despite being generally not bad for a Western update on the state of play in the Middle East still contains some nail-on-the-chalkboard tropes, such as Yemen and Iraq forces opposed to the US being proxies of Iran, as opposed to allies to which Iran does provide assistance. Alert readers might note the bland way this post describes how Israel might target civilian infrastructure inn Lebanon without mentioning that that would be a war crime.
Some informational tidbits:
In one YouTube interview (I believe with Nima of Dialogue Works), Larry Wilkerson pointed out that Iran was slow by Western standards to respond to provocations. In a fresh talk with Nima, Wilkerson (starting at 13:20) describes how Putin (one wonders how this was a Russian as opposed to Syrian operation) has pushed the 900 US servicemembers who are tasked to protecting the Syrian oilfields out. That means Israel now must rely on purchased oil
More from Links today: Fitch downgraded Israel by a ratings notch, which Mr. Market did register and that Iran rejected European entreaties to Iran to stand down with umbrage.
By Paul Rogers, Emeritus Professor of Peace Studies in the Department of Peace Studies and International Relations at Bradford University, and an Honorary Fellow at the Joint Service Command and Staff College. He is openDemocracy’s international security correspondent. He is on Twitter at: @ProfPRogers. Originally published at openDemocracy
Geopolitical tensions have been high since Israel assassinated Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last month, with world leaders fearing an expected Iranian response that could lead to further escalation and an expansion of the war across the region.
There has been intense diplomatic activity in the shape of governments – including Russia, Jordan and some Gulf States – urging Iran to limit its response. But with the assassination seen as a direct attack on Iran’s sovereignty, the country’s religious leadership is under heavy pressure internally to respond with substantial force.
The US has also made a much-publicised move to increase its already substantial military forces in the region. A new US Navy aircraft carrier battle group will now take the place of one currently due to leave the Gulf of Oman and an additional squadron of strike aircraft will be moved to the region, as will more air-defence destroyers, cruisers and land-based air defence systems. The Pentagon has also ordered the despatch of a cruise missile-armed nuclear submarine to the region, it was announced yesterday.
Meanwhile, Israel continues its war on Gaza. Yet Hamas remains active despite Israel having laid many urban areas to waste and killed tens of thousands of Palestinian civilians. On Saturday morning, 80 Palestinians were killed in three Israeli air strikes on Tabeen school in Gaza City, where 6,000 displaced people were sheltering, according to the Palestinian Health Authority.
Tensions also persist in southern Lebanon as Israel’s low-level conflict with Hezbollah repeatedly tips over into missile and air attacks. This has been developing ever since the Hamas assault in southern Israel last October and has led to large-scale evacuations from land on either side of the border.
Over 400 people have so far been killed in Lebanon, most of them Hezbollah paramilitaries, with a further 94,000 people on the Lebanese side of the border having been displaced. Israel has moved 65,000 people away from its side of the border.
The cost of damage in Lebanon had already reached $15bn by the end of May, according to Charbel Cordahi, an economist and financial adviser to the president. The damage in Israel is not known, but in any case Israel appears intent on escalating its actions, starting with the killing of a senior Hamas military leader, Saleh al-Arouri, in Beirut earlier in the year.
Much more recently came the assassination by the Israelis of one of Hezbollah’s senior military leaders, Fuad Shukra. Yet comments in Israel’s media from retired military officers and some politicians indicate that neither Binyamin Netanyahu’s government nor the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) want a full-scale war with Hezbollah, whose paramilitary wing is far stronger than that of Hamas at the start of the Gaza war, and which has increased the size of its arsenal tenfold since its last war with Israel back in 2006. The Israeli government knows full well that even the most concentrated system of air defences can be overwhelmed by hundreds of missiles fired close together.
The most Israel would want would be to carry out intensive airstrikes on civil infrastructure in Lebanon, especially in those areas of Hezbollah influence. That is what it did in 2006, but this time it would be on an even more intensive scale, essentially to deter Hezbollah in the future. In the process, it would likely wreck the Lebanese economy, a very dangerous action fraught with risks of miscalculation and escalation.
Where this links in with the Israel/Iran dynamic is that Hezbollah is the leading example of a paramilitary movement strongly supported by Iran and already in conflict with Israel. It is not in direct conflict with US forces, although one of its earliest actions is imprinted in Pentagon military history: the killing of 241 US Marines in a double suicide bomb attack against a US stabilisation operation in Lebanon back in 1983.
The US military, though, is involved in direct conflict with other paramilitary and military proxies of Iran, in Yemen and Iraq. These are rarely reported in the Western media outside of security publications but amount to an ongoing lower-level war.
In the past couple of months, there have been US-led air strikes against Iran-backed militias in Iraq, including a series of attacks following a militia assault originating in Iraq but targeting a military location just across the border in Jordan. Then, just last Monday came a rocket attack against US military units at al-Asad air base in Iraq. Reportedly launched from within Iraq, the attack injured seven US troops and civilians.
Then there is the separate conflict with the Houthi regime in Yemen, also supported by Iran. Earlier this week, a Liberian-flagged container ship – Liberia being a US ally – was hit by a missile launched from Yemen, the latest in a sequence that has involved persistent offensive and defensive Western military actions. The great majority are by US forces, but the UK, Israel and other states are also involved.
The level of US activity is remarkable whether directed at drones and missiles already airborne or others on the ground, as well as radar sites and other military targets. There were 20 incidents in July and a similar number in June, yet the Houthis continue to stage the attacks, saying they will continue until Israel ceases its war on Hamas.
Overall, there may be serious concern about a potential enlarged war in the Middle East stemming from the existing Israeli wars against Hamas and Hezbollah, but there already is a wider war ongoing. The United States is heavily involved in this – through its strong military support for Israel – as are several of its other Western allies, most obviously the UK.
There is little sign of this war diminishing. Rather, with the US’s current military reinforcements and the tensions with Iran, it is more likely to expand further unless wise counsel can prevail.
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Would a new war even work as an October Surprise, given that Biden isn’t running for re-election, and it would just highlight Harris’s lack of military and foreign policy chops?
The US election is now an entirely secondary concern. Both candidates (+RFK) are expressly pro-Israel and can be relied on to support further US involvement indefinitely. The war going hot or not or US troops going in or not has no further relevance to Washington as a war making institution. If anything an escalation will only pump up the rhythm of the candidates campaigns, giving them a reason to festoon their bunting with Israeli flags and have Gaza protestors truncheoned out of rallies and indeed major urban areas for the duration.
The new President will be authorizing US troop deployments to the Middle East by 2025, and the new Congress will be approving arms sales to settler militias and new censorship laws for anyone trying to cover their use.
Both candidates (+RFK) are expressly pro-Israel
One wonders at the amount of political donations affect this stance.
I think that it’s the fact that a Palestinian activist assassinated his dad.
I thought RFK Jr was pretty clear that he felt the US spooks were involved with his father’s assassination, regardless of who pulled the trigger.
Saw an interview with him several months ago where he indicated that he had just recently figured out that the US were not really the good guys in the Ukraine conflict. He struck me as pretty politically naive, especially for a Kennedy who is aware of what the intelligence services are up to.
You all really need to do some more research into RFK Jr. He was good on Ukraine prior to announcing. He has his own podcasts that go back years.
Is stance ok Israel is terrible. I don’t know where it came from other than Israeli money. He interviewed Blumenthal years ago and they seemed to agree then.
I believe blackmail plays a large role as well. Epstein is just the operation we happened to find out about. I’m sure there are others, not all of which specialize in sexual peccadilloes.
The U.S. concept of ‘democracy’ is like being offered a choice between dengue fever and monkey pox.
Larry Wikerson disagrees. He says political leader have no idea what bad shape the US military is in, particularly the Navy, and that (ex nukes) we would lose a war with Iran.
Then it is highly likely we will see the use of tactical nukes by the US. In for a penny, in for a pound.
Afaik, a tactical nuke is larger than what we did in Japan. One such on Teheran would get their attention, they’d send 90% to israel and maybe 10% to take out Saudi oil fields. Maybe if they have Mach 6 missiles they could also take out any carriers within range.
Granted, I assume their missiles are sufficiently spread out and protected in their mountains.
If I were Hezbollah I would attack Tel Aviv if israel bombed Beirut.
So far the resistance has focused on military targets, that’s not reducing Israeli belligerence.
<"a tactical nuke is larger than what we did in Japan"
From what I can search, Japan was 16 and 21 kt. For current US tactical nuclear weapons:
B61-12 — .3-50kt (variable)
ALCM/LRSW W80-1 — 5/150kt
Trident W76-2 — 5kt
Ask yourself how you’d feel if five thousand tonnes of radioactive fire arrived in your backyard.
Nukes are nukes.
Instant global warming!
Logistic! It took 6 months uninhibited for part of the Cold War force to get in place for desert storm.
A lot of it is gone and the main systems 30 odd years older.
US lacks lift! If it had things needed.
Iran is large land mass! They know the threat and have hardened and dispersed their “assets”.
If Jordan, Turkey, Qatar and Bahrain decide to throw US out…..
Do the leaders of Iran fear nukes or do they think like Mao?
Outcome of Red Sea operation should be sobering.
9 months for later Iraq War. We had to start pre-positioning hospital ships then.
And then there was the Millenium Challenge war game in 2002. Wonder how that went ?
To insert Hillary Clinton –
This was a Febr. interview on Democracy Now with British Yemen-scholar Helen Lackner on the Houthis:
“The Houthis Are Not Iranian Proxies”: Helen Lackner on the History & Politics of Yemen’s Ansar Allah”
https://www.democracynow.org/2024/2/1/yemen_strikes
“Helen Lackner, author of several books on Yemen, who describes the history of the Houthis, the political landscape in Yemen, and debunks the idea the group is controlled by Iran. “The Iranian involvement has become greater, but it’s very important to know that the Houthis are an independent movement. The Houthis are not Iranian proxies. … They make their own decisions.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helen_Lackner
Hi Ag, agreed.
But when people only hear “Iranian proxy” every time something is talked about on MSM, it is successful. And since these actual experts are never heard, well MSM wins.
I have had to stop trying to talk to Dems about Iran, Gaza or Russia or anything as radical as negotiations and peace.
I’m viewed as a Russian stooge.
The conversion of the Dems to war mongers is complete.
I agree,
My experience is the same. the “democrats”… are a party that is pro war, pro censorship.. and really just “gullible”. It seems everyone, everywhere; seem to give credence to the “spectacle” version of the world. russia is bad. israel is good. Misinformation is out there and corrupting the view of anyone who doesn’t agree with them… It is a done deal, the view in the mirror is the real one.
It is a hell of a thing to see in real time.
We are experiencing a “mass hysteria event”, the zombies have come… and they are going to vote….
And all the while, to a person when I try and just establish what they consider to be a fact…. I just get that no one has “time”, to look at the details… which is really just a defense mechanism these people use to not confront their cognitive dissonance with the world they know…. and the real one.
I find that questioning my sources is a favorite ploy. Which is fair as I certainly question theirs.
Thomas Franks’ short video in yesterday’s Links captured it.
I think billing myself as a peacenik reduces the russ stooge label. But msm /dems are all in with us forever wars, our Allie’s are good and righteous, those we don’t like (don’t obey) are evil. You have to be tuned in to alt media to get any clues to reality.
I very occasionally speak with an eu doctor when he visits my area. He’s more aware of the eu problems from turning away from russia, but otherwise could be a dem. I assume eu msm narratives are quite similar to what I see in the la times. I wonder what, say, South American readers see in their papers.
Yeah, Houthies are Iranian proxies the same way British recent rioting was instigated by Russia….
Everything is instigated by Russia, except the Harris campaign . . .
Rooskies need to up their game then. Houthies are getting ballistic missiles from Iran and all kinds of long range goodies, while British rioters only got a machete shipment from the Kremlin.
I’d put a few qualifications for some of the facts in this article. Professor Rogers says that ‘Israel has moved 65,000 people away from its side of the border’ but I would double or even triple that number. And when he says that the financial damage in Israel is not known, I would be so bold as to suggest the steady downgrading of Israel’s credit rating might be a bit of a clue. And as Yves has pointed out, Israel targeting civil infrastructure in Lebanon is actually a war crime and would, may I say, give Hezbollah legal justification for targeting the Israeli electrical grid, fuel bunkers, water-treatment works, sewerage treatment etc. in turn. This professor should know that incoming fire has right of way.
As for that killing of 241 US Marines in a double suicide bomb attack against a US stabilization operation in Lebanon back in 1983, that only came about when the US took sides and used naval gunfire to support one side of that conflict, in spite the State Department, the CIA and the Marine Commander opposing doing this. And right now, if there are rocket attacks against US military units in Iraq, it is because the US is refusing to leave that country and ignoring demands form their Parliament to do so. So he wonders about a wider war but the US has been bombing countries in this region for decade after decade and now through rockets and drones, those countries are gaining the ability to hit back.
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/setting-the-record-straight-the-beirut-barracks-bombing/
As for that killing of 241 US Marines in a double suicide bomb attack against a US stabilization operation in Lebanon back in 1983,
I find it remarkable that mention is made of a double suicide bombing killing 241 soldiers from the USA, while in fact 58 French soldiers also lost their lives — that is why there was a double bombing: one targeting the French, the other the American barracks.
The fact that other countries (most notably France) were supporting the intervention of the USA in Lebanon (which explains why the French paid the price for their unwanted presence in Beirut) is thus completely forgotten. Perhaps the Europeans should start remembering, if they do not want to become roadkill in the confrontation USA+Israel against Palestine+Iran+Yemen+Lebanon+Iraq.
“One night, amid shelling outside Beirut and frustrated with the resistance in Washington…(National Security Advisor Bud McFarlane)… crafted a manipulative cable to Reagan, … stating that it was time to “fish or cut bait” in Lebanon.
To some at the Pentagon, the overly long, dramatic missive was so overcooked it became known as the “sky-is-falling cable.” Still, the ploy worked: Reagan authorized his military to use force to protect the Lebanese Armed Forces. As U.S. Navy ships opened fire on targets ashore, McFarlane garnered enough support for a cease-fire in Lebanon.”
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/05/17/robert-mcfarlane-death-national-security-advisor-iran-contra/
Just to add one more item to the bombing of the Marine Barracks in Beirut which occurred on October 23, 1983.
Just six months prior, on April 18, 1983, a truck bomb was detonated in front of the US Embassy in Beirut killing 63 people including 17 Americans, eight of which were CIA officers. So it was massive negligence and incompetence on the part of the Marine commander that they were so unprepared for such an attack on the Marine Barracks. Wisely Reagan, who was ultimately responsible for these security failures, did not double down and quickly removed our troops in Lebanon from harms way. Today we are watching as Biden triples down on his disastrous commitment to Israel by sending more ships and troops into the Middle East in order to protect Israel’s ongoing provocations and genocide.
“…900 US service members who are tasked to protecting the Syrian oilfields out. That means Israel now must rely on purchased oil”
I honestly wasn’t aware that Syrian oil was being “appropriated” by the US/Israel, but it would only seem to fit the normal US covert policy.
That said with Israel having a hard time receiving any thing bought which must arrive by boat very difficult these days it would seem loosing that oil would put Israel in a tough spot. When the US embargoed oil sales to Japan in 1941 that eventually precipitated Japan’s attack on the US and that was known to be a very high risk action, but when you’re feeling backed into a corner you become more open to foolish risks.
Originating in the oppressed free speech UK I take this as mostly questionable.
Israel is waging wars of crimes.
US’ decades long (still want to put the Shah back) undeclared war on Iran is as evil as Israel.
Israel response is always punish the bystanders, war crimes. As in Gaza punishing the peeps does not eliminate the “fighters”.
US must get out of the Middle East!
I believe the US is very interested in seeing a tactical nuke used. This conflict is possibly their useful testing ground. If they can point to Israel, so much the better. This is of course just my opinion – but I can see no other motivating force for the US to allow such escalation by Israel (I mean, in defense of genocide?? – USA how is your support defensible?).
Part of my misspent young adulthood was spent in USAF, the Cold War part.
My view of nuclear exchange is very negative having work and lived on priority targets.
But I also abhor U.S. support for apartheid and genocide
Saw a pair of large military transports flying out of MSP yesterday afternoon, heavily laden based on how slowly they were climbing and heading due north, toward the other side of the world. I’ve never seen two flying together like that before. More hoof beats from the four horsemen.
Where is msp?
Minneapolis Saint Paul?
Here is plane spotting @ RAF Mildenhall from less than a week ago showing KC46/KC135s (tankers), RC135s, F-22s, F35s, F-15s, and more all heading east:
Mass launch at Mildenhall 5x KC46, 4x KC135. RC135 . Lakenheath F15, F16, F35 2x Rare C17s 8/8/2024
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l8BtmkA2wfE
Could be faked (recorded at other times), but looks legit to me.
According to a friend who was an air traffic controller at the Minneapolis/St. Paul airport, military transports heading north from MSP are most likely destined for Camp Ripley (I’ve seen pairs of them heading north from MSP or south to MSP many times before).
If they were headed in a different direction…
This is probably, but not definitely, routine as MSP is the base for both the Air National Guard and Air Force Reserve. Those C130s are based there and go all over the place for weekend drill and annual training. Training includes flying in formation of 2 to 4 aircraft. They’ve also been used to support deployments. Activity alone doesn’t necessarily mean something’s up. Now if it were other transport aircraft my ears would perk up.
I have noticed that the C130s have been quiet at MSP this summer. I’m 3 miles away but the roar of their engines can get loud. Sometimes they’ll sit on the tarmac with the engines roaring for hours. I can only imagine that it’s some kind of training, but that’s an awful lot of fuel to not go anywhere. Anyway that’s been absent this summer.
Maintenance is likely what you hear when they’re roaring and going nowhere.
I’ve been hearing those transports rumble up and off ever since Shrub took us into the Middle East. He had the audacity to just get us over there but not to actually prosecute a war of aggression for oil – at least for as long as it was required. Because it is clearly still ongoing, but without securing oil or declaring war. In the meantime we have lost allies and made enemies and failed to maintain a fighting military. So in my mind the question of whether or not a full scale war will break out in the Middle East rests on our desperation, which in turn rests on our failing oil production and that of the EU as well. But even worse, now we’ve missed the Wolfowitz window and then some. We would all be wise to sit down. Write up a contract for long term oil and maybe get dollar contracts too for us westerners. Oil is every bit as essential for the West as it is for China. But we are exceptional – exceptionally irrational because we would actually drop nukes for it. Imo. I also think everybody knows this. So why pretend otherwise and risk a devastating confrontation? I think we are using Israel because they are obnoxious enough to genocide us all into a war. And we can pretend to be innocent. The whole blatant fiasco is unbelievable.
C-130s are tactical transports. The biggies to watch are the C-17s, which fly twice as fast, twice as far and carry three times as much.
Is Iran broadcasting its potential targets?
I believe that PressTV is to Iran what Global Times is to China, basically state media. And this looks to me like Iran is announcing that it is gonna slap Israel’s military and intelligence command in the face– yes, more than symbolism, a stronger “demonstration” than April’s retaliation, but still well-removed from a full-on military assault or massive strike designed for maximum damage:
Explainer: What are the scenarios and potential targets of retaliatory strike on Tel Aviv?
There are scores of military sites in Tel Aviv that could be targeted to punish the Israeli regime for terrorist attacks that claimed the lives of Hamas political bureau leader Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr.
Our analysis shows the most likely targets in Tel Aviv could be the centers affiliated with the Israeli spy agency Mossad, which had a key role in the assassinations of Haniyeh and Shukr.
https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2024/08/13/731266/explainer-what-scenarios-potential-targets-retaliatory-strike-telaviv
This is just the Iranians rattling Israel’s cages again. The Israelis have already abandoned some of their military and intelligence headquarters in Tel Aviv and they are waiting for the other shoe to drop. Meanwhile the Iranians are in no hurry until all their ducks are lined up.
If Iran were to level, absolutely level, leaving nothing more than a hulking crater surrounded by smouldering rubble, a command center in the heart of Tel Aviv– occupied or not– that would be an unmistakable, and very public, message.
All signs are that Iran is beyond sending a message. The message was sent a few months ago, and the Israelis did not read it.
They are going to send a hit that hurts (and have stated as much). That means destroyed assets and soldiers/officers (not just evacuated buildings).
I also wonder how he knows what Russia is counseling Iran… Russia is delivering weapons and electronic warfare equipment and S-400s (h/t Pepe Escobar on Judge Nap this morning) operators.
Iran has stated it is beyond sending a message and is going to hurt Israel, which means destroyed military assets and personnel, not just an evacuated office building.
The message deterrence boat has sailed.
People give too much importance to the Global Times. Yes, it is state media but seems to pander for an international English speaking audience. Most of the opinions are not really reflective of the Chinese government’s stance.
People’s Daily is more reliable in my experience.
I wonder if Iran would be more powerful in its position if it opens its market to US products
Iran does have a large enough economy and is a middle income country with a large enough consuming class. US may not bomb it then and this might put Israel into a conundrum.
Huh? Iran is under the mother of all economic sanctions. It can’t buy US products because the US will not allow it to use dollar or other Western payment systems to buy them.
The latest Alastair Crooke maneuvers around these questions including a shoutout to, surprisingly, Walter Kirn.
https://strategic-culture.su/news/2024/08/12/an-intricate-fabric-of-bad-actors-working-hand-in-hand-so-is-war-inevitable/
The sum up is that since Obama there has been a conscious desire to maintain a Washington consensus versus “misinformation” and that Netanyahu thinks he can use this to get the US to go to war with Iran for his benefit. This was the purpose of his recent standing O trip to Congress. Patrick Lawrence has been hitting the same theme but questions whether said consensus can really ignore the will of the American public.
Of course there’s no benefit to the US in all this foreign intervention but just as Bibi wants to stay out of prison, our DC-ians feel the need to fiercely defend their rice bowls with the country at large as bit players. This is also the motive of the new attacks on free speech which Turley says Harris and Waltz enthusiastically support.
https://jonathanturley.org/2024/08/12/a-harris-walz-administration-would-be-a-nightmare-for-free-speech/
The Kirn angle is his assertion that the public are now poorly served by our fourth estate which has also been corrupted. The public have nothing to fall back on but simple humanity and common sense–qualities that are lacking in our elites.
Hilariously, the NY Times still has headlines that give the impression that any negotiations that Israeli is engaged in are in good faith, after assassinating Haniyeh!
You should listen more often to the talking heads in DC holding press conferences for foreign affairs, white house, etc… the level of optimism is unbounded, and if there will be a failure is all due to Hamas…
Given how publicly Gallant and Netanyahu hate each other, maybe the best response for Iran would be to wack the former and deny any involvement. Then watch as Israel descends into civil war since everyone would think Netanyahu was responsible.
It was good to see Hamas refuse to continue giving legitimacy to that negotiations process. Israel keeps on assassinating the negotiators, but the US contends that they should continue negotiating? It is all for show anyway, so why should they continue to supply yet more victims to what amounts to a PR exercise.
So, once again, the US and its’ allies find themselves negotiating with themselves.
The thing that surprised me was that the idiot mentioned Liberian-flagged ships being attacked by Houthis, followed by the statement that Liberia is a US ally, as if there is any real relevance to that.
That is a staggeringly stupid thing for a professor to pass of as relevant in this context.
But then again, he is a fellow of the Royal Services Command and Staff College., so he has “Establishment” running through him, like seaside rock.
An administration that embroils the US in a war will be thrown out. This administration should be thrown out in any event for political incompetence (tying its fortune to Israel- bearhugs for Bibi), for aiding and abetting a genocide, and for the catastrophe in Ukraine.
Having said that, on foreign policy matters that count, you couldn’t fit a sheet of paper between the candidates. Jill Stein excepted.
Mostly what I hear is that Iran must respond. If they don’t respond then Israel will continue to bomb Iran.
But after that its very vague. To me Israel and the US (UIS) have played its hand well to box Iran in.
If Iran does any sort of standard direct response then I could actually believe that Israel would Nuc Iran.
For example lets say that Yemen becomes part of the bombing of Israel, then I could see B52’s from Diego Garcia carpet bombing Yemen.
And they could also do the same to Iran.
I don’t see Iran being able to withstand a full assault from the US/Israel.
And there is no one in the US government or MSM, or any position of power that is for peace or negotiating with Iran. They have been part of the axis of evil since the early 2000’s and I think its worse now.
I don’t see any way Iran can respond without being destroyed.
Except one.
And that is if Iran has nuclear weapons, then MAD comes into play. Its worked in every country so far.
With both Libya and North Korea being two opposing countries to prove the point.
Call me crazy, and probably, but all the other options Ive heard Iran ends up being destroyed.
You’re overestimating US capabilities and Iranian nuclear weapons by a lot, and underestimating Iran’s air defense and conventional missile capabilities by the same amount.
I don’t see Iran being able to withstand a full assault from the US/Israel.
You need to get there first. I have a problem seeing even Saudi Arabia serving as a base. The closest staging area is likely to be Israel which is only about 1,500 km from Tehran. And you need to cross maybe 2 countries to get to Iran.
Back in the first or second Gulf war the USA and allies spent maybe 6 months building up forces in Saudi Arabia before attacking Iraq.
Even if the Saudis were stupid enough to agree to hosting a US assault force, the Iranians would just start taking out oil and water distillation facilities immediately. The oil is possibly incidental but you need a huge amount of fresh water to support troops in that area.
I just do not see the USA and Israel having the missile capacity to threaten Iran unless they use nukes and then all bets are off.
This is some 46 miles past surreal.
The USA has manifestly been guilty of aggression toward the Russian nation.
The USA is complicit in ***ocide.
Once can’t even write the word of ***ocide or one is demonitized if they have a site, or removed if they are on social media.
McCarthyism is having a renaissance and the pathetic pushback, from the public, is stunning
And, YES, America is headed to all out war in the Middle East because apparently Israel/American elites want all out war in the Middle East. I think this is an incredible miscalculation by American/Israel elites, here’s to hoping wiser and calmer heads prevail.