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2:00PM Water Cooler 9/10/2024

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* * *

Let us continue with our catbirds (which somehow vanished mysteriously during yesterday’s sturm and drang).

Bird Song of the Day

Gray Catbird, Indian Springs Wildlife Management Area; along Blair’s Valley Road, Washington, Maryland, United States. “Adult Gray Catbird singing from roadside vegetation.” Sounds like a duet.

Not to be confused with a catbus:

(By Studio Ghibli.)

* * *

In Case You Might Miss…

  1. Kamala: Change vs. more of the same?
  2. Melania intervenes
  3. Trump’s ear, examined.
  4. Winds carry potential pathogens over great distances.

* * *

Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

* * *

Trump Assassination Attempt

Melania intervenes:

Biden Administration

“How Joe Biden Engineered Apple’s New AirPods” [Matt Stoller, BIG]. “Apple engineers turning AirPods into hearing aids is wonderful, but it’s not a uniquely difficult endeavor. In fact, what’s happening here is that a set of elected leaders opened up a market closed off by a cartel that had secured a comfortable position, shielded by the Food and Drug Administration. And engineers, many of whom care deeply about hearing, acted in this new legal space to create tools to help people live better lives… How we deploy technology is not a function of engineering and science as much as it is how those interplay with law, in this case a law that fostered a hearing aid cartel and then a different law that broke it apart. So it’s not outlandish to say that Joe Biden designed Apple’s new hearing aid AirPods, with an assist from Elizabeth Warren, Chuck Grassley, and Donald Trump. It’s just what happened.” • I’d be a lot happier if Kamala had given Lina Khan a big hug. Because meanwhile:

This, again, seems like sloppy staffwork. How does work get out that Dunn is double-dipping like this? And why was the double-dipping allowed in the first place?

2024

Less than one hundred days to go!

Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:

I would say the bloom is off the rose for Harris, except for an upward blip in Georgia. Looks like the enormous liberalgasm afte the Convention was confined to party loyalists. The Kamala campaign must be sore as boils Trump is within striking distance, let alone tied with them. What could account for it? Perhaps that’s why the pivot to RussiaGate. Remember, however, that all the fluctuations — in fact, all the leads, top to bottom — are within the margin of error.

“Kamala Harris Can’t Keep Running Like This” [The New Republic]. “After seven weeks of euphoria over Kamala Harris’s ascension to the top of the Democratic presidential ticket, panic finally [ha ha] returned to the party on Sunday. The New York Times published a poll showing Donald Trump with a slim lead over Harris nationally and a dead heat in the seven swing states that will decide the November election. With Tuesday’s debate fast approaching, the momentum that had sustained Harris since President Biden withdrew from the race has clearly dissipated.” Seven weeks does seem like a long time for a campaign to come up with a policy statement, even a copy-pasta-ed one (see below). Especially in a 100-day campaign. More: “the tightening of the polls over the past week points to a failure in Harris’s campaign. She had nearly two months to show voters who she is and what she stands for. Instead, she has played it safe, hoping to maintain the positive vibes and momentum of the summer by deliberately not staking out positions on controversial policies. It’s now clear that that approach is no longer working.” More: “This is actually the good news in an otherwise dismal poll. With two months to go until the election, Harris has plenty of time—and one pivotal debate—to define herself for the voters. But that will require abandoning the cautious approach she’s taking up since becoming the nominee—and publicly breaking with Joe Biden.” • It wasn’t enough to stab Biden in the back? Now she has to break with him in public?

“The mistakes of 2019 could cost Harris the election” [Nate Silver, Silver Bulletin]. “Harris’s [2019] articulation of highly progressive positions on immigration and health care have become a talking point for the Trump campaign and one where the facts are mostly on their side. Harris has flip-flopped on some of these positions, like on Medicare for All and decriminalizing border crossings…. The flip-flopping may explain why Harris has been weirdly reluctant to do media hits or articulate policy specifics. This strategy may have worked well enough when she was riding high off the vibes of the Democrats’ candidate swap, but it’s causing her more problems now.

* * *

The Debate (September 10)

“Harris braces for the most critical moment of her political career at debate with Trump” [CNN]. “Kamala Harris’ joyful campaign will Tuesday be hit by the blunt force of reality — a debate with Donald Trump — the most menacing political foe of modern times.” • That’s “putatively joyful” ffs.

“Harris’s Gains Stall. Can Tonight’s Debate Change That?” [Robert Kuttner, The American Prospect]. “Weirdly, a plurality of voters support Trump on many issues, even though his policies range from implausible to incoherent. He holds a 13-point advantage on the economy.” • “I just—I just—I just don’t understand!”

* * *

Change vs. more of the same?

Kamala (D): “Eighty-eight corporate leaders endorse Harris in new letter, including CEOs of Yelp, Box” [CNBC]. • That should change some minds.

Kamala (D): “‘Danger to our national security’: Retired generals issue warning on Trump, back Harris” [9News] • Dittoes. The letter:

If you read that first paragraph carefully, you see Kamala doing a lot of “standing with”, “meeting,” and “speaking repeatedly.” Nothing shows any capacity for strategic or indeed analytical thought at all. Which I suppose is just how these guys like it.

Kamala (D): “Embarrassing Copy-Paste Plagues Harris’s Launch of Policy Platform” [The New Republic]. The deck: “Kamala Harris seems to have borrowed her policies entirely from Joe Biden.” More: “Shortly after Kamala Harris released her policy agenda on Sunday evening, users on X spotted something in the metadata: Much of the language appears to have been lifted from Joe Biden’s campaign website. On Sunday night, X user Corinne Green pointed out that the issues section of Harris’s website contained metadata with language urging voters to reelect Joe Biden. This language was visible when links to the campaign site were shared, and in the website’s description on Google searches.” And: “All of this creates the impression that at least some of the Harris campaign’s policy language was copied and pasted from Biden’s documents. That would be an embarrassing miscue from the Harris campaign, which partly came into being because of a perception that a refresh was needed to garner enthusiasm in the Democratic Party.” • Kamala’s staff was clever enough to release her policies on Sunday night — that is, after the Sunday morning talk shows — but not clever enough to avoid an amateur-hour copy–pasta debacle? Who’s minding the store over there?

Kamala (D): “Harris’ momentum has stalled — but not reversed. 5 takeaways from the latest polls” [Politico]. “More than a quarter of Harris’ voters, 28 percent, still said the nation is going in the wrong direction — a sign she isn’t dependent on only those who are currently happy with the state of the country. That’s one reason why the vice president is trying to claim a “change” mantle, despite being part of the current administration. It’s not an easy argument to make: In the New York Times/Siena College poll, just 40 percent said she represented ‘major’ or ‘minor’ change, compared to 61 percent who said the same of Trump. One signal that Harris intends to continue this theme in Tuesday’s debate: The multi-state, post-debate campaign blitz her campaign announced earlier Sunday is titled the ‘New Way Forward Tour.'” • So, the new way forward is to plagiarize Biden’s platform? How is this new? Biden’s a plagiarist too!

* * *

Kamala (D): “Calmes: Listen up, Kamala — let Trump beat Trump” [Los Angeles Times]. “Puncture his pompousness. Get out the fly swatter for the gnats. Cue the laugh. But most of all, show the persuadable voters what a serious presidential candidate looks and sounds like.” • Would that were possible!

Kamala (D): Kamala’s campaign is said to have more money than God. Don’t they have people for this?

* * *

Trump (R): “Prosecutor’s candid slam on Bragg exposes the evil of Dems’ Trump lawfare” [New York Post]. “He didn’t mean to make it public, but a Manhattan US Attorney’s Office biggie has outed the contempt that pros privately hold for Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s purely political prosecution of Donald Trump. Covertly taped by an undercover righty, chief of public affairs Nicholas Biase slammed the case as ‘nonsense’ and a ‘perversion of justice,’ accusing Bragg of ‘stacking charges [against Trump] and, like, rearranging things just to make it fit a case.’ Secretly recording private conversations for a ‘gotcha’ is slimy (as we’ve said before), but Biase’s comments prove what Andrew McCarthy and Jonathan Turley [not to mention lambert] have long warned: Bragg’s case never made any sense to begin with.” And: “And Fulton County, Ga., DA Fani Willis’ case against Trump is ‘a mockery of justice,’ he added; ‘the whole thing is disgusting.'” And one last kick at the twitching corpse: “We expect most of the legal community is silent out of similar fears, even as the worst characters look forward to boosting their own fortunes by weaponizing the justice system against future Democratic targets.” • Yep.

Trump (R): “Trump keeps losing his train of thought. Cognitive experts have theories about why” [STAT]. “This shifting from topic to topic, with few connections — a pattern of speech called tangentiality — is one of several disjointed and occasionally incoherent verbal habits that seem to have increased in Trump’s speech in recent years, according to interviews with experts in memory, psychology, and linguistics. Back in 2017, Trump’s first year in the White House, a STAT analysis showed Trump’s speaking style had deteriorated since the 1980s. Seven years on, now that Trump has the GOP presidential nomination, STAT has repeated the analysis. The experts noted a further reduction in Trump’s linguistic complexity and, while none said they could give a diagnosis without an examination, some said certain shifts in his speaking style are potential indications of cognitive decline.” • Key point from the 2017 article: “The experts noted clear changes from Trump’s unscripted answers 30 years ago to those in 2017, in some cases stark enough to raise questions about his brain health. They noted, however, that the same sort of linguistic decline can also reflect stress, frustration, anger, or just plain fatigue.” I’m reluctant to buy into this, for a couple of reasons: Tangential or not, what I called Trump’s “jazzy riffing” was extremely effective with the crowd when I saw him in Bangor. I don’t think his style has changed in eight years. It is what it is. Second, whether in 2016 or 2020, Trump, in debate was alert for a moment of weakness and shoved the shiv in expertly. Could be the last talent left, of course. But nevertheless.

Trump (R): “The Afterlife of Donald Trump At home at Mar-a-Lago, the presidential hopeful contemplates miracles, his campaign, and his formidable new opponent” [New York Magazine]. “[Trump] can never fully see his own ear. He can never fully see himself as others do. I inched closer and narrowed my eyes. The particular spot that he identified with his tap was pristine. I scanned carefully the rest of the terrain. It looked normal and incredible and fine…. An ear had never before been so important, so burdened. An ear had never before represented the divide between the organic course of American history and an alternate timeline on which the democratic process was corrupted by an aberrant act of violence as it had not been in more than half a century. Yet an ear had never appeared to have gone through less. Except there, on the tiniest patch of this tiny sculpture of skin, a minor distortion that resembled not a crucifixion wound but the distant aftermath of a sunburn.” • I don’t think the Democrats are arguing that Trump almost didn’t get whacked. Isn’t that what counts? (And Trump has, all things considered, been remarkably nice about not making the assassination attempt a campaign issue: The Secret Service is, after all, controlled by the Biden Administration (which also denied Kennedy Secret Service protection, oddly, considering his family history. Or perhaps not oddly?).

* * *

Kennedy (I): Kennedy seems to want to occupy the throne Heritage was unceremoniously bundled away from; whether Trump will ultimately accept that is unknown:

Kennedy (I): Impressive, until the anti-masking toad hops out of Kennedy’s mouth:

The irritable mental gestures that comprise anti-masking can be summarized either in the political mode (“The right to infect others shall not be infringed”) or the religious mode (“Infect thy neighbor as thyself”). Both are signs of civlizational collapse. See Andrew Dittmer at NC in 2011, “Journey into a Libertarian Future: Part I –The Vision,” for the political philosophy that brought us to this point.

Democrats en Déshabillé

“That’s a hell of an act. What do you call it?”

The Democrats!

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

* * *

Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

* * *

Airborne Transmission

“Microbial richness and air chemistry in aerosols above the PBL confirm 2,000-km long-distance transport of potential human pathogens” [PNAS]. PBL = Planetary Boundary Layer. From the Abstract: “The existence of viable human pathogens in bioaerosols which can cause infection or affect human health has been the subject of little research. In this study, data provided by 10 tropospheric aircraft surveys over Japan in 2014 confirm the existence of a vast diversity of microbial species up to 3,000 m height, which can be dispersed above the planetary boundary layer over distances of up to 2,000 km, thanks to strong winds from an area covered with massive cereal croplands in Northeast (NE) Asia. Microbes attached to aerosols reveal the presence of diverse bacterial and fungal taxa, including potential human pathogens, originating from sewage, pesticides, or fertilizers. Over 266 different fungal and 305 bacterial genera appeared in the 10 aircraft transects.” And: ” Natural antimicrobial-resistant bacteria (ARB) cultured from air samples were found indicating long-distance spread of ARB and microbial viability. This would represent a novel way to disperse both viable human pathogens and resistance genes among distant geographical regions.” • Novel indeed MR SUBLIMINAL Yeah, but where’s the RCT? Here is the Guardian treatment of the same article–

“Pathogenic microbes blown vast distances by winds, scientists discover” [Guardian]. “The winds studied carried a surprising diversity of bacteria and fungi, including known pathogens and, some with genes for resistance to multiple antibiotics. Some of the microbes were shown to be alive – in other words, they had survived the long journey and were able to replicate. The researchers said this intercontinental transport route was unlikely to cause disease in people directly, because the concentration of microbes was low. However, they said it was a cause of concern that microbes could be seeded into new environments and that antibiotic-resistance genes could travel in this way.” But: “[Prof Xavier Rodó at the Barcelona Institute for Global Health] said: ‘We are talking about ultra-low concentrations, and in most cases they wouldn’t elicit infection. But we cannot rule that out in immunocompromised individuals.’ Nevertheless: “Prof Chris Thomas, at the University of Birmingham, UK, said: ‘The chances of getting an infectious dose [via high-level winds] must be considerably less than when encountering an infected person on an aeroplane, or even just going on holiday to a foreign country.'” • Yes, but I don’t think that’s the killer argument Thomas seems to think it is. Not to minimize myself, but if the upper atmosphere is a viral soup, that’s a good thing to know. Science is popping!

Transmission: H5N1

“5 burning questions about Missouri’s mysterious H5 bird flu case” [STAT]. Worth reading in full. “An unexplained H5 infection raises the possibility of person-to-person spread of a flu virus that has never before circulated in humans, and to which people would not have immunity. And this with a dangerous flu virus that scientists have long feared could someday trigger a pandemic. After all, the 2009 H1N1 pandemic was first noticed when two children in California who had no contact with pigs or with each other were diagnosed with flu infections caused by a virus that had previously been circulating in swine.” And the questions: “What is being done to investigate the situation?… Is this the same H5 virus that is spreading in cows?… How sick was this individual? Was he or she hospitalized for influenza symptoms, or for other reasons?… Did this person truly have no contact with infected animals or birds? Does this individual have a cat that is allowed outdoors? … Did this person consume raw milk?” • All these questions seem obvious enough. And yesterday–

“CDC confirms human case of bird flu in Missouri” [The Poultry Site]. “The case was confirmed on Thursday, the CDC said, adding that an investigation into the potential exposure is ongoing by the Missouri Department of Health and Senior Services.” • Not CDC….

Transmission: Mpox

“Mpox cases on the rise in Canada” [WSWS]. “The lack of any sound epidemiologic response by Canada’s health officials to the current strain of mpox is emblematic of the international anti-public-health response globally. At every turn, public health statements and announcements downplay the dangers posed by the virus and attempt to offer false assurances that these pathogens are no serious threat, and all the necessary tools are in place should they be needed. Statements like the one made by Chief Public Health Officer Theresa Tam, who admitted that the lack of any positive samples of clade 1 in wastewater ‘could change,’ should raise eyebrows. The mpox virus has primarily affected the province of Ontario, where 142 confirmed cases have been reported since the beginning of the year. Two cases have needed hospitalizations, and no one has died so far. Few, if any, of the positive cases were associated with international travel. Once introduced, the virus fueled a large outbreak entirely driven by local community transmission. Only 15 percent of cases reported travel outside the province in the 21 days before the onset of symptoms and the positivity rate for testing has been higher than 27.3 percent since late June, according to the provincial health ministry. This implies health authorities have adopted the ‘live with the virus’ strategy which has been taken in relation to the COVID-19 pandemic rather than fighting to eradicate the disfiguring and potentially deadly mpox virus.”

Elite Maleficence

They know. They just don’t want you to know:

Notice who’s masked and who isn’t.)

* * *

Lambert here: The figures look mildly encouraging for now, but I would expect an immediate worsening after Labor Day travel kicks in, along with grade schools, high schools, and colleges starting up. Stay safe out there!

TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

Wastewater
This week[1] CDC August 27 Last Week[2] CDC (until next week):

Variants [3] CDC August 31 Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC August 31

Hospitalization
★ New York[5] New York State, data September 9: National [6] CDC August 17:

Positivity
★ National[7] Walgreens September 9: Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic August 24:

Travelers Data
Positivity[9] CDC August 19: Variants[10] CDC August 19:

Deaths
Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11]CDC August 31: Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12]CDC August 31:

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, with hot spots annotated. Keeps spreading. NOTE The date seems to be wrong, but the number of sites has changed so this is new.

[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* very popular. XDV.1 flat.

[4] (ED) Down, but worth noting that Emergency Department use is now on a par with the first wave, in 2020.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Definitely down.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). The visualization suppresses what is, in percentage terms, a significant increase.

[7] (Walgreens) Big drop continues!

[8] (Cleveland) Dropping.

[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Down. Those sh*theads at CDC have changed the chart so that it doesn’t even run back to 1/21/23, as it used to, but now starts 1/1/24. There’s also no way to adjust the time range. CDC really doesn’t want you to be able to take a historical view of the pandemic, or compare one surge to another. In an any case, that’s why the shape of the curve has changed.

[10] (Travelers: Variants) What the heck is LB.1?

[11] Deaths low, but positivity up. If the United States is like Canada, deaths are several undercounted:

[12] Deaths low, ED up.

Stats Watch

Sentiment: “United States NFIB Business Optimism Index” [Trading Economics]. “The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in the US decreased to 91.2 in August 2024, the lowest in three months, compared to 93.7 in July and forecasts of 93.6. ‘Historically high inflation remains the top issue for owners as sales expectations plummet and cost pressures increase. Uncertainty among small business owners continues to rise as expectations for future business conditions worsen’, said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg.”

* * *

Manufacturing: “Boeing Machinists union chief expects members will reject deal, strike” [Seattle Times]. “‘The response from people is it’s not good enough,’ Machinist union district 751 president Holden said in an exclusive interview with The Seattle Times at the union’s South Park headquarters. ‘Right now, I think it will be voted down, and our members will vote to strike.’… With Boeing’s credit rating now just one rung above junk bond status, a lengthy strike that hits cash flow and increases debt could have a dramatic effect on its financial standing.” Boeing’s Bourbon-like management already looking for scabs: “A Boeing employee forwarded a message to The Seattle Times that was sent Monday by an engineering manager at the Auburn parts plant, stating that he was “asked to provide leadership with a list” of engineers willing to volunteer to perform work normally done by Machinists. Targeting members of the white-collar union, the Society of Professional Engineering Employees in Aerospace, the memo cites an incentive of pay at overtime rates, either 1½ times or double the normal pay. SPEEA Executive Director Ray Goforth expressed surprise when told of the memo and said his union would likely lodge an objection. Boeing did not comment on the issue.”

Tech: Innovation (1):

Tech: Innovation (2):

That’s it? A camera control button?

Tech: Innovation (3):

* * *

Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 38 Fear (previous close: 42 Fear) [CNN]. One week ago: 54 (Neutral). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Sep 10 at 1:32:46 PM ET.

Social Media Watch

Challenge accepted:

Gallery

Little cubes, but by Cezanne:

Permaculture

“Carbon-Water Tradeoffs in Old-Growth and Young Forests of the Pacific Northwest” [American Geophysical Union]. From the Abstract: “Multiple lines of evidence show that mature and old-growth forest watersheds store and accumulate more carbon, are more drought resistant, and better sustain water availability compared to young forests. These results provide a basis for reconstructions and predictions that are potentially broadly applicable, because first-order watersheds occupy 80%–90% of large river basins and study watersheds are representative of forest history in the Pacific Northwest region.” • A “first-order watershed“: “The start or headwaters of a stream, with no other streams flowing into it, is called the first-order stream. Two first-order streams flow together to form a second-order stream. Second-order streams flow into a third-order stream. This labeling continues until the streams deposit their water into a larger body of water, such as an ocean or a bay.” • “Complexity is the enemy of quality” in the world of engineering or business. That doesn’t seem to be the case in ecological systems.

Class Warfare

“On Algorithmic Wage Discrimination” (PDF) [Veena Dubal, SSRN]. “Drawing on a multi-year, first-of-its-kind ethnographic study of organizing on-demand workers, this Article examines the historical rupture in wage calculation, coordination, and distribution arising from the logic of informational capitalism: the use of granular data to produce unpredictable, variable, and personalized hourly pay…. Across firms, the opaque practices that constitute algorithmic wage discrimination raise central questions about the changing nature of work and its regulation under informational capitalism. Most centrally, what makes payment for labor in platform work fair? How does algorithmic wage discrimination change and affect the experience of work? And, considering these questions, how should the law intervene in this moment of rupture?” • We linked to this paper back in December 2023, but now there’s a video out based on it:

News of the Wired

“Shortwave Radiogram, 5-11 September 2024 (program 369): Sail-powered digital modes” [Shortwave Radiogram], “Shortwave Radiogram transmits digital text and images on an analog shortwave broadcast transmitter. The program is produced and presented by Dr. Kim Andrew Elliott.” • “[S]hortwave remains the most accessible international communications medium that still provides listeners with the protection of complete anonymity.”

* * *

Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From JB:

JB writes: “The rains have returned and the cement pond is full again (our pool, home to about three dozen goldfish and a turtle, plus lily pads). Speaking of which, the lily pads made it through a Florida winter (such as it is). This was not a sure thing, in my estimation, because we planted bulbs in 5-gallon buckets and they sit in the shallow end of the pool ranging in depth between 3-1/2 to 4′ deep. Anyway, they not only survived but thrived and the other day Niki, our daughter, took some really nice photos of a pink blossom (we have white and violet on occasion, also). I immediately thought of you because she caught the clouds reflecting off the water and the effect was very nice.”

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About Lambert Strether

Readers, I have had a correspondent characterize my views as realistic cynical. Let me briefly explain them. I believe in universal programs that provide concrete material benefits, especially to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime example, but tuition-free college and a Post Office Bank also fall under this heading. So do a Jobs Guarantee and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can deliver on such programs, because the two are different flavors of neoliberalism (“Because markets”). I don’t much care about the “ism” that delivers the benefits, although whichever one does have to put common humanity first, as opposed to markets. Could be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don’t much care, as long as the benefits are delivered. To me, the key issue — and this is why Medicare for All is always first with me — is the tens of thousands of excess “deaths from despair,” as described by the Case-Deaton study, and other recent studies. That enormous body count makes Medicare for All, at the very least, a moral and strategic imperative. And that level of suffering and organic damage makes the concerns of identity politics — even the worthy fight to help the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton’s wars created — bright shiny objects by comparison. Hence my frustration with the news flow — currently in my view the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the other by out-of-power liberals and their allies in the State and in the press — a news flow that constantly forces me to focus on matters that I regard as of secondary importance to the excess deaths. What kind of political economy is it that halts or even reverses the increases in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I am also very hopeful that the continuing destruction of both party establishments will open the space for voices supporting programs similar to those I have listed; let’s call such voices “the left.” Volatility creates opportunity, especially if the Democrat establishment, which puts markets first and opposes all such programs, isn’t allowed to get back into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I love the tactical level, and secretly love even the horse race, since I’ve been blogging about it daily for fourteen years, but everything I write has this perspective at the back of it.

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33 comments

  1. Laughingsong

    “Carbon-Water Tradeoffs in Old-Growth and Young Forests” ….

    Haven’t read it yet but I’m hoping that it will also cover that old growth is also more fire resistant. And I notice that tall trees seem to have a property of making their own local weather, seemingly pulling down the clouds to get more moisture out of them.

    Reply ↓
    1. Lee

      In local (for me) tall tree weather news: Fog-harvesting coastal redwood trees

      A study in northern California found that on average 34% of the annual hydrologic input was fog-drip off coastal redwood trees (Sequoia sempervirens), while in areas without the redwood trees, fog accounted for only 17% of the water input. These data demonstrate that the trees significantly influence the volume of fog-water entering the system.

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        1. Laughingsong

          Lambert drinking from a Fangorn stream and going all Entish…. 🙂

          Still reading through this, I lived pretty close to that experimental forest in the 90s, too (Lived in Vida, down OR 126 from the forest).

          They do mention that younger forests are more prone to wildfires for sure. And of course, replanting with only one species (Doug firs) increases susceptibility to disease too. I’m bummed that they didn’t also replace the hemlock and especially the red cedar, my understanding is that cedars grow quickly and would create overstory more quickly.

          Not enough money in it or some other specious reason.

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  2. flora

    re: ” I should also announce that we will be having a Presidential Debate Live Blog this evening. Doors open at 8:30pm.”

    I’m assuming this is 8:30 pm ET, or Eastern Time?

    re: iphone that uses replaceable AA batteries. Finally. Might reduce the packed scrums of people trying to charge their iphones on long, large group bicycle rides like RAGBRAI.

    Thanks.

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    2. Screwball

      The rumble in Philly tonight should be a dandy, I can hardly wait. /s

      There are people on Twitter saying Harris will get the questions in advance because she is good friends with an ABC news person. Wouldn’t surprise me in the least. We do remember Donna Brazil.

      I will watch with adult beverages to help. My PMC friends refuse because Trump – they can’t watch him. Wouldn’t matter anyway, they would vote for a cadaver over him anyway.

      Should be highly entertaining.

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  3. Coler

    Bad link for the “On Algorithmic Wage Discrimination” (PDF) [Veena Dubal, SSRN].

    Can’t find good one. The older direct link is:

    https://columbialawreview.org/content/on-algorithmic-wage-discrimination/

    Flooding the country with immigrant potential gig workers is blatant wage discrimination against multigenerational American workers who are now left with only these jobs, or, the new staff positions to the PMC such as dog walkers.

    It is heartbreaking to see middle aged women who once had real jobs and careers, based on education, connections, status, reduced to caring for animals, like Middle Age serfs. But, as Kamala says,
    “The economy has improved.”
    How stupid do they think we are?

    Yet another laundrymat closed in our town because of obscene utility costs, thanks to Gavin Newsom and his bribe taking from PG&E. Soon poor people will forgo bathing along with clean clothes at the rate we are going.

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  8. t

    I’ve read about bacteria from Old Faithful, which should not live outside its temp zone, being found miles and miles away. Not extreme forms Temps. bacteria that typically die when spashed around by a geyser and exposed to our normal temps.

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    1. Wukchumni

      The most caliente hot springs in Cali is Sespe hot springs where it comes out of the side of a hill @ 190 degrees and eventually runs into the Sespe River via an outlet stream.

      Reply ↓
  9. flora

    file under what-could-go-wrong?

    New Trend Of Pharma Selling Directly To Consumers Raises Questions

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshuacohen/2024/09/03/new-trend-of-pharma-selling-directly-to-consumers-raises-questions/

    from the article:

    Direct-to-consumer programs offer access advantages to patients as they sidestep several of the intermediaries in the drug supply chain. But they may also bypass meaningful engagement between the patient and their regular doctor who has first-hand knowledge about a person’s medical history and co-morbidities. This seems especially relevant with respect to weight loss medications where monitoring, follow-up and diet and exercise advice, may be crucial. The high percentage of patients who discontinue their obesity medicines, with possible weight rebound as a result, reinforces the importance of closely managing the condition and its treatment modalities.

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    1. Lee

      If the results of this study published in the Journal of American College of Cardiology (JACC), The Effect of Semaglutide on Mortality and COVID-19–Related Deaths: An Analysis From the SELECT Trial, prove sound, then you aint seen nothin’ yet when it comes to the demand for at least one of the principal ingredients in currently popular weight loss drugs.

      Conclusions

      Compared to placebo, patients treated with semaglutide 2.4 mg had lower rates of all-cause death, driven similarly by CV and non-CV death. The lower rate of non-CV death with semaglutide was predominantly because of fewer infectious deaths. These findings highlight the effect of semaglutide on mortality across a broad population of patients with CV disease and obesity. (Semaglutide Effects on Cardiovascular Outcomes in Patients With Overweight or Obesity [SELECT]; NCT03574597)

      Emphasis added by moi

      There’s some discussion of this at this week’s episode of Dr. Daniel Griffins Clinical Update at minute 9:08.

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  10. petal

    Had an interaction with what I had thought was a friend(apparently not anymore). I questioned the Harris record and pushed back on it. Rational discussion, right? Nope. This person accused me of planning to vote for Trump. I countered with “I never said that. I don’t know who I’m voting for. Maybe Jill Stein.” and was angrily told that “Stein doesn’t have 2 brain cells to rub together”, and this person was literally shaking with rage because I refused to get in line and vote for Harris. It was like a switch got flipped. I was told that Trump took their kid’s health care away, how Harris was a great prosecutor and convicted all of the housing scam bad guys, etc etc. I tried to explain and debunk that stuff but no no avail. This person completely flew off the handle and got scary irrational. I’m really starting to get very worried what will happen if A)Harris does win, and B)Harris doesn’t win. The blowback from the team blue people might get ugly. They have no qualms. I’m still kind of shook. And NH is supposed to be safely blue. Why are they so worried about someone in NH? Another person said Harris would wipe the floor with Trump at the debate tonight.

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    1. Ranger Rick

      At a certain point, it ceases to be about politics and instead becomes identitarian. Disagreeing with someone on their political position is thus not an ideological argument, it is existential; you are essentially telling them not only do they have poor judgement, they are also bad people in with the wrong crowd. The only tactic I’ve seen actually work is to discuss the issues. Only the issues. Don’t connect them to parties or particular candidates, and refuse to engage about said parties and candidates if provoked. It sounds like a losing debate strategy, but you have to understand that you’re talking theology with a couple of extra placeholders — and as long as you avoid those placeholders, you don’t trigger the fear response.

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    2. chris

      I am deep in the belly of the greater DC area. I can absolutely confirm that people are very invested in Kamala being the best ever around here. I can also confirm that people display the exact same qualities you mention when challenged about their positions on this matter.

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  12. Lambert Strether Post author

    Patient readers, I have added an unusually sumptuous amount of orts and scraps, because with the debate coming up, I shouldn’t be leaving gaps in your knowledge of the current thing. So I left nothing on the cutting room floor.

    It’s hard to imagine that some of these stories weren’t released in time to be quoted in the debate (though Kamala’s actual and documented plagiarism of Biden’s platform was driven by what a Twitter account discovered).

    Please read thoroughly!

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  13. DJG, Reality Czar

    Musk Acrobatics.

    My question about Elon Musk is this: Has he just about reached Peak Media Whore? Is it time for us to collectively dial down the undesirable alien? (Talk about problems with immigration. And there’s Peter Thiel.)

    He’s pretty much just running his mouth and running controversies.
    –He provided a service by cleaning the intelligence agencies (maybe) out of TwiXter. He let Matt Taibbi do much of the heavy lifting and then wrecked their relationship.
    –The current Brazil scandal is whiffy. The crux is that Brazilian law requires a physical office / presence in Brazil. Is that truly so hard? And Brazilian law interprets some of the twiXts differently. That’s a matter for the courts. Shellenberger has been looking for a big story for months (after all, the Daring UFO Revelations didn’t catch fire). Why Greenwald has involved himself is a little bit of a mystery to me. But the scandal generates many, many clicks.
    –The Mars mission is pretty much physically impossible with a crew. He may send out another probe, but I wouldn’t sign up to settle Mars yet if I were you.
    –Tesla Autos. Is that the center of the matter here? Is he distracting from the company’s problems?

    ‘Tis a mystery. As always with Musk, who is deeply shallow and motivated mainly by power, there is less here than meets the eye.

    Reply ↓
    1. Cassandra

      the Daring UFO Revelations didn’t catch fire…

      Funny you should say that… I was just musing today that, unless I missed something, the recent flurry of activity promising DUR seems to have subsided. And here I was thinking the advent of our Alien Overlords offered our best hope, given the way our Human Overlords have messed things up.

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  14. lyman alpha blob

    Good political rundown today, filled with things Democrats should not do if they’re smart, but can’t help themselves from doing because they aren’t.

    Things that do NOT help the Democrat cause –

    Bragging about how many establishment corporate, political and military types endorse you, especially when they are Republicans. Republicans are always going to pick the real Republican, not the pretender. And the reason Trump got elected once already is because the public hates these establishment [family blog]ers.

    Trying to make it out that Trump is the one whose mind is on the wane. Just dumb projection – DementiaJoe just shuffled off the stage not that long ago, and we can all still remember that his brain is mush and his body failing.

    Blaming voters when your polls are cratering for not recognizing your innate superiority.

    And a side note: while I’m no fan of the stabber, nobody deserved to be shivved in the back more than Biden. Good riddance.

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    1. Lee

      “Bragging about how many establishment corporate, political and military types endorse you…”

      And then there’s the ever delightful bragging about the money being raked in.

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  15. Roger Blakely

    RE: Huawei Mate XT

    It reminds me of a meme showing how cell phones were getting smaller and smaller until people started figuring out that you could watch adult videos on your phone, and then cell phones started getting bigger and bigger.

    Reply ↓

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