2:00PM Water Cooler 9/13/2024

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Patient readers, happy Friday the Thirteenth! I got caught up in a little administrativia, so what follows is a bit light. Stay tuned. –lambert

Bird Song of the Day

Gray Catbird, Carman Valley, Sierra, California, United States. A symphony! And 28 minutes long! The whirring percussion in the background is especially nice.

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In Case You Might Miss…

1. New polling averages (it’s a tie) and new Covid tables (some encouragement).
2. Taibbi on debate coverage.
3. Boeing strikes, could lead to ratings downgrade.
4. Death in Hamburg, by Richard Evans.

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Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

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2024

Less than sixty days to go!

Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:

A few polls post-debate, but as of this reading little change. To be fair, it might take some time for sentiment to settle; and the winning margins may at this point be so minute as to be undetectable. Still, the Democrats must be very puzzled to have virtual unanimity across the political spectrum that “Harris is the one” — it was a tidal wave, after the debate — and yet the election is a virtual tie. How can this be? Perhaps a few more Republicans, generals, or celebrities will turn the tide.

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Kamala (D): “Harris Campaign Takes Lobbyist Donations Despite Saying It Doesn’t” [Sludge]. “The Kamala Harris campaign says it does not take donations from registered federal lobbyists, but Sludge found that it received donations from at least 20 of them from the day it took over the Biden campaign account on July 21 through July 31, the last date for which campaign contributions data is currently available. The donations were not refunded as of the most current data from the Federal Election Commission. The Harris campaign declined to comment on its lobbyist donations or its policy for screening them out. The campaign’s report covering September will be filed on or before Oct. 20 and will show if they refunded the donations in September after Sludge inquired about them. Several of the Harris campaign’s lobbyist donors had previously given to the Biden campaign, which Harris took over. The Biden campaign also said it was not accepting donations from lobbyists, but none of these donations were refunded.” • Boeing, Walmart, Merck, and Google….

Kamala (D): “Harris’s Working-Class Problem” [Ruy Teixeira, The Liberal Patriot]. “But the race is still exceedingly tight….and seems likely to remain so. And there’s another part of her game plan—or what should be her game plan—that does not appear to be working out so well. I refer to the need to boost support among the working class, which remains a serious weak spot for the Democrats and Harris. The latest New York Times/Siena poll has Harris trailing Trump among working-class (noncollege) voters by 17 points. That’s identical to Biden’s working-class deficit in the last NYT poll before he dropped out and way worse than Biden’s deficit among these voters in 2020—a mere 4 points.” Could be the party, not the candidate. More: “There’s no sugarcoating it—this is a serious problem for the Democrats. College-educated America may be delighted with candidate Harris but working-class America clearly is not. And there are a lot more working-class than college-educated Americans. Remember that they will be the overwhelming majority of eligible voters (around two-thirds) and, even allowing for turnout patterns, only slightly less dominant among actual voters (around three-fifths). Moreover, in all seven key swing states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—the working-class share of the electorate, both as eligible voters and as projected 2024 voters, will be higher than the national average….. The Democratic Achilles’ heel remains and could still deliver a second term for Trump.” • Yep.

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Trump (R): “Trump says he would end all taxes on overtime pay at first post-debate rally” [NBC]. • When Trump proposed no longer taxing tips, Kamala adopted his proposal right away. I wonder how long it will take her this time? (Not that optimizing America for tipping culture and overtime is necessarily a good thing.)

Trump (R): “Trump says he won’t do another debate with Harris” [The Hill]. “‘When a prizefighter loses a fight, the first words out of his mouth are, ‘I WANT A REMATCH,’ Trump posted on Truth Social, asserting that he won Tuesday’s debate with Harris despite some polls showing otherwise.”

Trump (R): “Trump tells The Post why he won’t debate Harris again: ‘Just don’t think that there’s any need for it'” [New York Post]. “‘We just don’t think that there’s any need for it,’ the 45th president exclusively told The Post Thursday after announcing on Truth Social he would not take the stage against Vice President Kamala Harris again. ‘We’ve done two.'”

Trump (R): “Paycheck-to-paycheck voters will ‘believe their lying eyes’ and vote against Harris” [The Hill]. “After the debate, I conducted my own snap poll of friends and family members living paycheck-to-paycheck while getting battered daily by the harsh realities of life — harsh realities that everyone I spoke with believed have gotten worse under the Biden-Harris administration…. we come to some less conventional so-called polls. First, at a small bakery in blue Montgomery County in swing-state Pennsylvania, we have the ‘cookie poll.’ As reported by Fox News, 4,228 cookies were sold expressing support for Trump, whereas only 369 were sold expressing support for Harris. Is this remotely scientific? Of course not. Does it have some real meaning? Yes. In a blue suburban county, a vast majority of cookie buyers ‘voted’ for Trump with their cookie purchases. To be sure, one of the reasons they did so was because it was an anonymous vote. In some ways, that gives it more weight than an ‘official’ poll. Back in 2016, I came across a similar food ‘poll’ at a restaurant in blue Boca Raton, Florida. Customers could ‘vote’ by either ordering a ‘Hillary’ burger or a ‘Trump’ burger. Walking into that establishment in early October 2016, I was shocked to see the Trump vote dramatically ahead. To me, that silly, anonymous vote in a blue stronghold represented a ‘canary in the coal mine’ warning for the Clinton campaign. That warning was proven correct when Trump shocked the world by winning the presidency one month later.” • Anecdotes, but at this point… Commentary:

There’s something to this.

It feels like Harris clearly performed better, what are the undecideds really looking for?

If it was at all “which candidate cares about my concerns?” then all they got from Harris was “everything’s great” or “I’ll fix it” – but they know she hasn’t.

— Scott Pfister (@goneflyin) September 12, 2024

Trump (R): “Judge narrows election interference case against Trump in Georgia” [NBC News]. “The judge overseeing the election interference case against Donald Trump and several co-defendants in Georgia has thrown out three counts in the indictment — including two counts brought against the former president. The original 41-count indictment accused Trump and several of his allies of a broad scheme to overturn the results of the 2020 election in Georgia, but the case has been stalled for months as an effort to disqualify the top prosecutor remains on appeal.” • There are still plenty of counts, however.

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Kennedy (I): “Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Has Sabotaged Early Voting in a Critical Swing State” [Slate]. “Kennedy v. North Carolina State Board of Elections, Monday’s decision, is exactly what you’d expect from a court controlled by elected Republican justices. The facts are damning: After running for months as a third-party candidate, RFK Jr. “suspended” his campaign and endorsed Trump on Aug. 23. Kennedy then sought to selectively remove his name from the ballot, but only in swing states where it might help Trump. By the time Kennedy dropped out, the North Carolina State Board of Elections had informed candidates and parties that the deadline for replacing nominees would be Aug. 22. Kennedy did not file his request for removal until Aug. 27, five days after the deadline and four days after he withdrew. By that point, county election boards were already printing ballots. Under state law, the board of elections may refuse a “late” request to remove a candidate from the ballot when removal is no longer “practical.” Another state law compels election officials to mail ballots to service members and others living overseas by Sept. 6. North Carolina’s state elections director testified that redesigning the ballot would take 18 to 23 days. So removing Kennedy’s name from the ballot—then designing and printing substitutes—would require election officials to violate state law. Even if these officials had begun removing Kennedy’s name the moment that he suspended his campaign, they could not have met the legal deadline. Yet the North Carolina Supreme Court still sided with Kennedy. A bare majority ordered election officials to work around the clock to destroy 3 million ballots, redesign new ones for every locality, and mail them out as quickly as possible.”

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Stein (G):

🚨BREAKING: The Muslim American Public Affairs Council proudly announces its official endorsement of Dr. Jill Stein for President. pic.twitter.com/Z613TcoRiU

— 𝓙𝓲𝓶𝓶𝔂 𝓙 🫒🔑🇵🇸 (@JimmyJ4thewin) September 12, 2024

Stein (G): Hence, the Democrat loyalist hit job:

So now you have some fight in you? But with ethnic cleansing in Gaza, kids in cages at the border under Biden, and climate crisis, no so much?

Got it.

— Adam McKay (@ZombiePanther2) September 13, 2024

Our Famously Free Press

“DNC Talking Points Become Instant Post-Debate Headlines” [Matt Taibbi, Racket News (Thanks to alert readers WZAPanga, tennesseewaltzer, and sporble)]. As Taibbi shows, the headline is nothing more nor less than the truth. The deck: “In the Trump-Harris debate, reality proved easy to manufacture. Was it always like this?” I can answer that:

‘Twas ever thus. In the year of our Lord 2000, Bob Somerby (“The Daily Howler” was perhaps America’s first political blog) followed coverage of a Bush v. Gore debate, and showed how the press converted public perception of a Gore win to a Bush win in about two days, by focusing on Gore “sighing,” as opposed to the content of the debate. (Back then, the metric for candidates was “Would you want to have a beer with them?”, and the press famously did not want to have a beer with Gore. Gore was the brain genius who gave Joe Lieberman his spot on the national stage as VP; Lieberman then went on to get the DHS set up after 9/11, and did a lot of other damage, oh well.) Oh, and back then we in the blogosphere used to joke about the “blast fax” when suspiciously similar talking points spontaneously, yet simultaneously, appeared. And to Taibbi, who is in top form–

Last night, Vice President Harris commanded the stage,” began the DNC’s “Talkers’ Toplines” mailing list entry this morning.

“Kamala Harris commanded the debate,” analyst John Heileman said on Morning Joe. “Kamala Harris commanded the first debate against Donald J. Trump,” read the opening line of the New York Times top debate story. “Harris commanded the room from the moment she walked on stage,” California governor Gavin Newsom told the Los Angeles Times. The pattern continued:

Americans saw that Harris “will turn the page once and for all on the darkness and division of Donald Trump,” the DNC “Talkers” continued.

“Trump brought darkness; Harris brought light,” wrote Charles Blow at the New York Times. “Trump paints dark picture at debate,” read this morning’s Maggie Haberman, decrying a “dark portrait of an America ravaged by crime.” The Washington Post house editorial added, “No more wallowing in doubt and division.”

“Donald Trump was totally incoherent,” the DNC wrote, adding that he was “angry and rattled.” The Guardian pronounced: “Rambling, incoherent.” MSNBC declared: “Clashes, conspiracies, and a rattled Trump.” The Sacramento Bee summed up: “Old, angry, incoherent, and crazy.”

The “Talkers’ Toplines” mailers feature a section called CONTENT TO AMPLIFY.

And “AMPLIFY” they do! Taibbi writes:

But the DNC or RNC just backing up to the commentariat, dumping loads of phrases, and seeing them instantly converted to conventional wisdom, that’s new. Isn’t it? I feel reduced to writing these things down in an effort to keep from going crazy.

Yes, “I feel like I’m takin’ crazy pills!” Nevertheless, “‘Twas ever thus!” What is new, I think, is the rapidity and volume of the amplication has increased, as has the stupidity of the talking points, and the servility of the press (though to be fair, the press has been much damaged by the assault from Silicon Valley). Taibbi concludes:

We just lived through a remarkable succession of memory-holed events, from lockdowns to Nord Stream to the stunning developments surrounding the end of the Biden campaign, in which reality was briefly allowed to surface before quickly being wallpapered over with a new face. Earlier manipulations already taxed the brain, but memory-holing a presidency?… They surrounded Trump with rigid consensus framing and watched him flail against it, which did make him look frustrated, old, and at times like a candidate for the political glue factory. But crazy? Not sure about that. If conventional wisdom says you’re crazy, that doesn’t make it true. What if it’s the other way around?

Lambert here: I may have more to say about this later today. But I think Taibbi’s perception here is correct, and reinforces something I wrote yesterday: Trump may (in an act of political self-harm) focus too much on his grievances. But then Trump has a lot to be aggrieved about; almost getting whacked while the Biden Administration’s Secret Service failed in their duty to protect him, for example. Or RussiaGate (remember the Steele Dossier). More importantly, so do his voters (and the anodyne polling questions about the “direction of the country” are a proxy for grievance). The median income in Springfield, OH, for example, dropped 20% in ten years, and then there was Big Pharma’s Oxycontin democide. According to PMC social norms, that’s not a reason to show show anger. Or be aggrieved. Because that would be crazy. But memory-holing a pandemic? Genocide? Threatening nuclear war? Totally sane!

“Is the Entire World Conspiring to Make It Look Like Trump Lost the Debate? An intriguing theory by Matt Taibbi” [Jonathan Chait, New York Magazine]. “Why did so many journalists who witnessed the same event describe it so similarly? To Matt Taibbi, a popular commentator who has migrated from liberal-hating leftist to liberal-hating Trump apologist, there could be only one explanation: The entire news media was taking orders from the Democratic Party.” No, not the “entire media”; just the natioal press that covers the horse race (which if course Chait would identify with “the entire media”). More: “Taibbi’s theory suffers from two serious flaws. The first lies in the linear nature of time. Taibbi seizes on a Democratic Party press release summarizing reactions to the debate and concludes that the reactions were implanted by the party into the media. But the news release came after the reactions. That is how it was able to quote them.” Taibbi — and the Democrat “Talkers’ Toplines” says “AMPLIFY” (caps in original). No timeline paradox there (although to be fair, I would have preferred a timeline-style presentation). That said, a Democrat house organ and the national political press using virtually identical wording in case after case after case isn’t problematic at all? Chait seems to think not, but I don’t think you need an “implanting” model of how political communication works to think agree with Taibbi and disagree with Chait. Class concsciousness and class interests will give perfectly reasonable accounts. More: “The second flaw with Taibbi’s analysis is that the belief Trump looked terrible was shared by many people who could not possibly be controlled by the Democratic message machine” (that machine being the entity Chait just described, but what of that). Chait is correct. It is also true that everybody quoted by Chait is one sort of political operative or another, and they might well be more attuned to each other than the voters. Turn Chait’s argument around: The entire political class thinks and says Trump “looks terrible.” Yet the race is still virtually tied, so clearly there are many, many people whose voices are not reaching Chait and the political class generally….

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

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Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

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Airborne Transmission

Elite Maleficence

For obvious reasons, I recently purchased Death in Hamburg, by Richard Evans (author of the magisterial Third Reich trilogy; see NC commenters here). Here is the first page of the book, from the Preface:

The man can write! I haven’t felt myself in such good hands with a historian since I read E. P. Thompsons The Making of the English Working Class, years and years ago. I guess I’m going to have to discipline myself to read it; he describes his methodology in the Preface, and it’s very exciting.

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TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

Lambert here: First time in a long time I’ve seen national trends downward for both positivity and hospitalization. Even if wastewater still looks pretty ugly, that’s very good news. I assume that what’s going on is the end of the Summer Vacation cycle of infection, and there will be a short lull until the beginning of the Back to School cycle. If not, that will be a very good sign.

Wastewater
★ This week[1] CDC September 9	Last Week[2] CDC (until next week):
Variants★ [3] CDC August 31	Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC September 7
Hospitalization
★ New York[5] New York State, data September 12:	★ National [6] CDC August 24:
Positivity
National[7] Walgreens September 9:	★ Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic September 7:
Travelers Data
★ Positivity[9] CDC August 26:	★ Variants[10] CDC August 26:
Deaths
★ Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11]CDC September 7:	★ Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12]CDC September 9:

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, with hot spots annotated. Keeps spreading. NOTE The date seems to be wrong, but the number of sites has changed so this is new.

[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* very popular. XDV.1 flat.

[4] (ED) Down, but worth noting that Emergency Department use is now on a par with the first wave, in 2020.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Definitely down.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). The visualization suppresses what is, in percentage terms, a significant increase.

[7] (Walgreens) Big drop continues!

[8] (Cleveland) Dropping.

[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Down. Those sh*theads at CDC have changed the chart so that it doesn’t even run back to 1/21/23, as it used to, but now starts 1/1/24. There’s also no way to adjust the time range. CDC really doesn’t want you to be able to take a historical view of the pandemic, or compare one surge to another. In an any case, that’s why the shape of the curve has changed.

[10] (Travelers: Variants) What the heck is LB.1?

[11] Deaths low, but positivity up.

[12] Deaths low, ED up.

Stats Watch

There are no official statistics of interest today.

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Manufacturing: “Boeing workers overwhelmingly vote to strike, reject contract” [Channel News Asia]. “A strike will shutter two major plane assembly plants in the Puget Sound region and sideline some 33,000 workers. Thursday’s vote marks a decisive rejection of a deal that line workers said was far less generous than depicted by Boeing executives, marking the latest show of defiance by unions following earlier strikes in the auto, entertainment and other industries…. Workers had sought a 40 per cent wage hike and critics have said the 25 per cent figure is inflated because the new deal also eliminates an annual company bonus. Other points of contention include the deal’s failure to restore a pension, as well as a Boeing pledge to build its next plane in the Seattle region, which critics view as a ‘hollow’ commitment because it offers no promises beyond the four-year contract. ‘They’re talking about a 25 per cent increase and it’s not,” said Paul Janousek, an electrician in Everett who voted to strike after concluding Boeing’s spin was ‘misleading.’ Janousek, 55, who has worked at Boeing for 13 years, figures his raise is only about nine per cent after Boeing dropped the annual bonus. Some workers also expressed anger about Dennis Muilenburg and Dave Calhoun, two former CEOs who received multi-million dollar compensation even as the company faced turmoil upon their departure. ‘Striking isn’t ideal, but it’s for the best for your long-term well-being,’ said Joe Philbin, a structural mechanic who has been at Boeing for six months.'” • Workers thinking beyond the quarterly results. Crazy pants!

Manufacturing: “Ratings agencies warn of downgrade if Boeing strike prolongs” [Reuters]. “Fitch and Moody’s on Friday joined S&P Global Ratings in warning that a prolonged strike at Boeing’s (BA.N), opens new tab factories in U.S. West Coast may lead to a ratings downgrade, a headache for the planemaker that is saddled with massive debt. ‘If the current strike lasts a week or two, it is unlikely to pressure the rating. However, an extended strike could have a meaningful operational and financial impact, increasing the risk of a downgrade,’ Fitch Ratings said.” • So give the workers what they want.

Tech: “Meta fed its AI on almost everything you’ve posted publicly since 2007” [The Verge]. “Meta has acknowledged that all text and photos that adult Facebook and Instagram users have publicly published since 2007 have been fed into its artificial intelligence models.” • Thereby massively skewing them, no doubt.

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Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 49 Neutral (previous close: 43 Fear) [CNN]. One week ago: 39 (Fear). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Sep 13 at 1:58:23 PM ET.

Gallery

Speaking of ducks:

The Poultry Yard https://t.co/RQ0qwLFXmd pic.twitter.com/aP0FjeJEPD

— Henri Rousseau (@artrousseau) September 13, 2024

News of the Wired

“When will you need a REAL ID? It may be complicated” [The Hill]. “The low rollout, paired with concerns that another deadline delay may reduce the ‘urgency to obtain a REAL ID,’ prompted the proposed rule, which calls for a ‘phased enforcement’ of the special ID cards… The proposed plan offers a variety of phased enforcement approaches, including the model the DHS views as ‘best suited for most agencies’: the informed compliance model. Using this method, those trying to board a flight or enter a federal facility after the May 2025 deadline could be given a written and verbal notice if their ID is not REAL ID-compliant. That notice would advise them on their non-compliance, steps to get a REAL ID, the consequences they could face with a non-compliant ID, and when the agency will move to the next enforcement stage or full enforcement. The phased approach, the TSA explains, could vary based on the agency’s operations. Those without a REAL ID after May 5, 2025, could, for example, ‘face delays at airport security checkpoints.'”

“Why do we crumble under pressure? Science has the answer” [Nature]. “Have you ever been in a high-stakes situation in which you needed to perform but completely bombed? You’re not alone. Experiments in monkeys reveal that ‘choking’ under pressure is linked to a drop in activity in the neurons that prepare for movement…. The team set up a computer task in which rhesus monkeys received a reward after quickly and accurately moving a cursor over a target. Each trial gave the monkeys cues as to whether the reward would be small, medium-sized, large or ‘jackpot’. Jackpot rewards were rare and unusually big, creating a high-stakes, high-reward situation. Using a tiny, electrode-covered chip implanted into the monkeys’ brains, the team watched how neuronal activity changed between reward scenarios. The chip was situated on the motor cortex, an area of the frontal lobe that controls movement. The researchers found that, in jackpot scenarios, the activity of neurons associated with motor preparation decreased. Motor preparation is the brain’s way of making calculations about how to complete a movement — similar to lining up an arrow on a target before unleashing it. The drop in motor preparation meant that the monkey’s brains were underprepared, and so they underperformed.” • Jackpot, eh?

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Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From AG:

AG writes: “To escape the heat here in Grass Valley, CA, we sometimes go ‘up the hill’. At 6,000 ft elevation on the way to Lake Tahoe, we find the amazingly fragrant Washington lilies.”