2:00PM Water Cooler 9/17/2024

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Bird Song of the Day

Gray Catbird, DD Rd, Rapid River US-MI, Delta, Michigan, United States.

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In Case You Might Miss…

  1. Boeing strike news (thickheaded management digs deeper).
  2. Trump assassination roundup, now with stochastic terrorism.
  3. The new kitten.

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Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

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Trump Assassination Attempts (Plural)

Not wrong:

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“The Assassination Wish Fulfillment” [John Poderhoretz, Commentary]. I never thought I’d find myself quoting J-Pod with approval, but here we are. “On Tuesday, Morning Joe’s Mika Brzezinski introduced a report on the attempt by Garrett Haake, and then when the camera returned to her face, launched into a two-minute history (read off a teleprompter, so therefore pre-planned by the show’s producer and theoretically approved in some fashion by MSNBC’s senior management) of all the times Trump has encouraged violence. She stitched together the genuinely disturbing (January 6 is “gonna be wild,” went the Trump tweet) with the jokey (Trump’s line about how he could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and get away with it) and the transparently dishonest (that he supported the neo-Nazis in Charlottesville in 2017). The net result was a five-minute segment that, once again, was designed to make you think Trump was asking for it…. Let’s talk tachlis, as we say in Hebrew. Let’s talk straight. The reason so many people in this country seem determined not to consider the profound seriousness of a potential new age of assassination—a return to the destabilizing period that tormented this country and the West between JFK in 1963 and the Reagan/John Paul II attempts in 1981—is that it represents a dark wish fulfillment for so many people…. A great many people, and most of the nation’s elites, secretly or not so secretly wish they could see the result sought by would-be killers Routh and Cheeks. And while they know they must pay lip service to the fact that assassinations are bad and wrong and shocking and all that, they simply cannot muster up the emotion of horror. That’s what’s missing here from the coverage and discussions of these two attempts: Horror. Because they’re not horrified. And they should be. This is the darkest kind of fantasy, because it can be fulfilled—and the consequences would be unthinkably dangerous for the future of this country.” • Speaking of wish-fulfillment:

The stitched blue X’s for the (dead) eyes are an especially cute touch, aren’t they? Who’s selling this kitsch? Penzeys?

“Democrats’ Rhetoric Inspired Another Attempt On President Trump’s Life” [Donald J. Trump]. Issued by the campaign, but this is the version I found. “Yesterday, President Donald J. Trump was the target of a second assassination attempt in as many months. Thankfully, the would-be assassin was stopped by the heroic action of law enforcement — but make no mistake, this psycho was egged on by the rhetoric and lies [stochatic terrorism] that have flowed from Kamala Harris, Democrats, and their Fake News allies for years. Democrats used increasingly incendiary rhetoric against President Trump in the days, weeks, and months leading up to the two assassination attempts.” • A long list of receipts, with links. The Democrats, having developed and propagated the theory of stochastic terrorism (see yesterday’s post) now don’t get to claim that “the use of mass communications to stir up random lone wolves” doesn’t apply to their rhetoric. Oddly, there are no Trump-as-Hitler refererences in the receipts; presumably because the campaign didn’t want to reinforce it. This matters, at least to the moralist, because while preserving “our democracy” might be a casus belli, it is typically not used as an excuse for assassination (Sic semper tyrannis being the counter-example). However, there’s a whole discourse built up around the question of whether killing Hitler would have been justified or not, and many say that it would have been.

“After possible assassination attempt, Trump decries ‘rhetoric’? Spare me the sanctimony.” [Rex Hupke, USA Today]. The deck: “The idea that Harris or her campaign should stop talking about the threat Trump poses to our democracy is absurd. Democrats are not encouraging any form of violence against him or anyone else.” “• The difficulty here is that (as I show here) not only hated Trump, wrote that “you are free to assassinate Trump,” and quoted the “our democracy” talking point. So when Hupke writes: “There is zero evidence connecting either gunman to Democrats calling Trump ‘a threat to democracy'” he’s not telling the truth.

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“Why Did Journalists Like Me Take Ryan Routh Seriously?” [The Free Press]. Worth reading in full; kudos for the mea culpa, rare in the press: “In March 2023 I interviewed a strange man named Ryan Routh. We had been introduced by a source inside Ukraine’s foreign legion, a military unit composed of foreign volunteers from more than fifty countries all over the world…. He seemed genuinely passionate, if perhaps a little too eager to aid a foreign war halfway around the world. After my story published, I never thought about him again. Until yesterday, that is, when the name Ryan Routh exploded across my phone—and yours…. The guy moves to the capital of a nation at war, despite having no personal connection to it. He doesn’t speak Russian or Ukrainian. In retrospect, shouldn’t it have struck the reporters, including myself, as a little bit. . . odd? The question is: Why didn’t it? Well, for one, I thought he was doing good work: It was clear he cared deeply about Ukraine’s struggle. I am Russian—born and raised in Moscow—but I consider the Russian war against Ukraine an unjustified act of aggression. So did Ryan Routh….. The story of Ryan Routh is a cautionary tale. Our increasing willingness to tolerate madness in the service of the causes with which we might agree risks obscuring the simple fact that the ‘right’ kind of crazy is still exactly that: crazy.” • Larry Summers, for example, is “the right kind of crazy.”

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“DeSantis says federal authorities investigating thwarted Trump attack ‘may not be the best thing'” [Washington Examiner]. In links today, but adding this comment: “‘We also believe that there is a need to make sure that the truth about all this comes out in a way that’s credible,’ DeSantis said at a Monday press conference. ‘I look at the federal government, with all due respect to them, those same agencies that are prosecuting Trump in that jurisdiction are now going to be investigating this? I just think that that may not be the best thing for this country.'” • Much as I loathe DeSantis, he’s right (though also capable of messing up the Florida investigation, especially because Florida law enforcement is also involved; we’ll have to see). It makes no sense to hand the case over to the lawfare goons.

“US Secret Service can’t guarantee Trump and Harris safety from more gunmen, sources warn” [iNews]. • There are no guarantees in this life. But holy moley, Biden and Harriss are supposedly running the administration. And the organs of state security get whatever they ask for. And operationally, what they have said is that when a sitting President plays golf, the golf course gets surrounded. We can’t do that for a former President who’s already been shot at once? It’s ridiculous. (Recall also that Biden refused RFK protection, despite his family history.)

2024

Less than sixty days to go!

Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:

A few polls post-debate, but as of this reading little change. To be fair, it might take some time for sentiment to settle; and the winning margins may at this point be so minute as to be undetectable. Still, the Democrats must be very puzzled to have virtual unanimity across the political spectrum that “Harris is the one” — it was a tidal wave, after the debate — and yet the election is a virtual tie. How can this be? Perhaps a few more Republicans, generals, or celebrities will turn the tide.

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Trump (R): “Will two assassination attempts alter the election?” [The Hill]. “The New York Times: ‘The shock from the shooting in Butler [Pa.] wore off relatively quickly as attention turned to other developments. The shock from this one may not last any longer.'” • “Shock” is a media thing. What matters is turnout, especially in Pennsylvania (the site of the first shooting).

Trump (R): “The Memo: Attempt on Trump’s life reverberates in White House race” [The Hill]. “The second attempt on Trump’s life within roughly nine weeks will surely rev up his base, further heightening the passions of supporters who are already prone to believe that the 45th president is a target of larger, nefarious forces. It’s possible the apparent attempt on Trump’s life could also win over whatever thin sliver of the electorate still populates the center ground — a factor that could be important in a presidential race against Vice President Harris that is essentially deadlocked. The startling chain of events could perhaps solidify some of Trump’s softer supporters — those Republican-minded or socially conservative voters who are hesitant to back the former president because of his belligerent rhetoric and penchant for personal invective.” • Yes, let’s be serious. Is Trump offering anybody ice cream? I rest my case.

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

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Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

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Transmission: Covid

“Oscillating spatiotemporal patterns of COVID-19 in the United States” [Nature]. From the Discussion: “Annual cycling of respiratory virus transmission, including common cold coronaviruses, is well documented, so the rough annual frequency traced by the two national COVID case rate curves… was not surprising. However, our finding of the additional EUCO and NUCO regional oscillators of COVID-19 case rates was unexpected. Additionally, our observation that COVID-19 case rates repeatedly increased each summer in the southern US was unexpected, as this observation runs counter to the expected associations of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and colder weather. If the south had a single peak each year, it might indeed be possible to explain the oscillation by the annual temperature cycle, but the south had not just one but two annual peaks, one in the hottest months of July and August, and the other in January and February. The surge of cases in the south in the summer is contrary to the expected seasonal surges of common respiratory viruses, and inconsistent with the hypothesis that they are related to colder temperatures in the conventional way. Isolation of mode II data as we have done here, and essentially discarding other mode data as noise, should facilitate studies to find the mechanistic drivers of this strong north–south epidemic oscillator.” • In other words, it’s not useful to think of Covid as “seasonal” (making it all the more unfortunate that News Medical coverage describes these oscillations as “seasonal”). I hope an epidemiologist in the readership can take a look at this, because it’s fascinating.

“Unexpected six-month pattern of COVID-19 cases discovered in the U.S.” [News-Medical Life Sciences]. “COVID-19 cases in the U.S. have shown unexpected oscillating waves every six months between the southern states and the northern states and, to a lesser degree, from east to west, according to new research published today in Scientific Reports.

Public health scientists from the University of Pittsburgh, University of Ottawa and University of Washington conducted the first detailed analysis to demonstrate and characterize the six-month oscillation of cases across space and time.

Transmission: H5N1

“Missouri Bird Flu Case Raises Possibility of Human Transmission” [US News]. “U.S. health officials have reported that a person who lived with a Missouri resident infected with H5N1 became sick the same day… Still, CDC officials told the New York Times on Friday night that there was ‘no epidemiological evidence at this time to support person-to-person transmission of H5N1,’ although more research is needed… Before the Friday report was posted, neither the CDC nor Missouri health officials had mentioned the close contact’s illness. In fact, CDC officials said in a Thursday media briefing that it was unclear how the first patient had become infected and called the case ‘a one-off.’ And on Thursday evening, Missouri health officials said that ‘all contacts are known and remained asymptomatic during the observation period,’ the Times reported. But by Friday, CDC officials acknowledged that the household contact’s illness ‘should have been mentioned in the press briefing, along with the additional context,’ the Times reported, though the risk to the public remains low, officials said. Still, outside experts criticized the omission. ‘There are absolutely no circumstances in which it is acceptable to not have disclosed that information yesterday,’ Jennifer Nuzzo, director of the Pandemic Center at the Brown University School of Public Health, told the Times on Friday.” • Lie, lie, lie….

Variants: Covid

“We have lived through a Covid summer – and now there is new variant causing concern” [Independent]. “And according to experts a new ‘stronger’ variant is now spreading across Europe. First identified as the XEC strain in Germany in June, global health experts believe that it could be the dominant variant within months and cause a new spike when the weather turns colder.” • No, it’s not the effing weather [pounds head on desk].

“COVID variant XEC sees rapid global growth: What to know about the new strain” [USA Today]. “XEC and a variant known as MV.1 seem poised to become the next dominant strains, scientists say…. ;At this juncture, the XEC variant appears to be the most likely one to get legs next,’ Scripps Research Translational Institute Director Eric Topol wrote on X.”

Sequelae: Covid

“Did the Pandemic Break Our Brains?” [Time]. “In the U.S. alone, about a million more working-age adults reported having serious difficulty remembering, concentrating, or making decisions in 2023 compared to before the pandemic, according to a New York Times analysis of Census Bureau data. It’s not outlandish to think the pandemic has had an effect on our minds, says Jonas Vibell, a cognitive and behavioral neuroscientist at the University of Hawaii at Manoa. Vibell is currently trying to measure post-COVID inflammation and neuronal damage in the brains of people who report symptoms like brain fog, sluggishness, or reduced energy. When he began publicizing the study, he says, ‘I got so many emails from lots of people saying the same thing”: that they’d never fully bounced back after the pandemic. But why?” Let the minimization begin! “It’s probably a mix of things, Vibell says. The SARS-CoV-2 virus can affect the brain directly, as many studies have now shown. But the pandemic may have also affected cognition in less-obvious ways. Months or years spent at home, living most of life through screens, may have left a lingering mark. Even though society is now mostly back to normal, the trauma of living through a terrifying, unprecedented health crisis can be hard to shake.” Back to mechanisms instead of vibes: “COVID-19 has been linked to serious cognitive problems, including dementia and suicidal thinking. And brain fog, a common symptom of Long COVID, can be so profound that people are unable to live the lives and work the jobs they once did. But COVID-19 also seems able to affect the brain in subtler ways. A 2024 study in the New England Journal of Medicine compared the cognitive performance of people who’d fully recovered from COVID-19 with that of a similar group of people who’d never had the virus. The COVID-19 group did worse, equivalent to a deficit of about three IQ points.” • A-a-a-n-d back to vibes. (Normally, I’m all for rich, nuanced explanations involving sociology and psychology. But I don’t think the should be put on the same analytical plane as biological mechanisms, especially when those mechanisms have very strong backing in the literature, and that’s what this article does.)

Morbidity and Mortality

“Covid-19 may lead to longest period of peacetime excess mortality, says new Swiss Re report” (press release) [Swiss Re]. “Report suggests potential excess mortality in the general population of up to 3% for the US by 2033 and 2.5% in the UK, the longest period of elevated peacetime excess mortality in the US. Key driver of excess mortality is the lingering impact of COVID-19; both as a direct cause of death, and as a contributor to cardiovascular mortality. Reducing the impact of COVID-19 on elderly and vulnerable populations will be key to excess mortality returning to zero.” • Who said it was “peacetime”? Commentary:

Elite Maleficence

“A Brief History of American Eugenics” [Jessica Wildfire, Sentinel Intelligence]. “The idea itself originated with Charles Darwin’s cousin, Francis Galton, who invented the term in 1883. He argued that governments should play a more direct role in “improving” the human race through a range of policies. By the early 20th century, eugenics had become a widely accepted idea in western culture, endorsed by everyone from Winston Churchill to Woodrow Wilson and taught in hundreds of universities from Northwestern to Harvard. British eugenicists ultimately rejected the American spin on the idea, finding it completely horrifying…. Darwin’s cousin created the word, but it only gave Americans a term to articulate ideas that were circulating for decades, all rooted in a national obsession with racial and spiritual purity. The history matters because eugenics has returned stronger than ever in American culture, resting on the tip of every complacent tongue as Americans ignore genocide abroad while committing social murder at home, casually mocking anyone who still wears a mask and framing anyone in favor of public health as fringe, anxious, or just plain weird. What you see in America’s history is a desire to rid society of the ‘undesirable’ going back to the late 19th century and leading to the peak of the eugenics movement in the 1930s.” • Well worth a read, though I would like the proponents brought up to the present day.

Social Norming

A Quiet Place (“A family struggles for survival in a world invaded by alien creatures with ultra-sensitive hearing”):

“Half of Americans never think they’ll get COVID again” [Ipsos]. Handy chart:

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TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

Lambert here: First time in a long time I’ve seen national trends downward for both positivity and hospitalization. Even if wastewater still looks pretty ugly, that’s very good news. I assume that what’s going on is the end of the Summer Vacation cycle of infection, and there will be a short lull until the beginning of the Back to School cycle. If not, that will be a very good sign.

Wastewater
This week[1] CDC September 9 Last Week[2] CDC (until next week):

Variants [3] CDC September 14 Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC September 7

Hospitalization
New York[5] New York State, data September 16: National [6] CDC August 24:

Positivity
National[7] Walgreens September 16: Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic September 7:

Travelers Data
Positivity[9] CDC August 26: Variants[10] CDC August 26:

Deaths
Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11]CDC September 7: Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12]CDC September 9:

LEGEND

1) for charts new today; all others are not updated.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, with hot spots annotated. Keeps spreading. NOTE The date seems to be wrong, but the number of sites has changed so this is new.

[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* very popular. XDV.1 flat.

[4] (ED) Down, but worth noting that Emergency Department use is now on a par with the first wave, in 2020.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Definitely down.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). The visualization suppresses what is, in percentage terms, a significant increase.

[7] (Walgreens) Big drop continues!

[8] (Cleveland) Dropping.

[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Down. Those sh*theads at CDC have changed the chart so that it doesn’t even run back to 1/21/23, as it used to, but now starts 1/1/24. There’s also no way to adjust the time range. CDC really doesn’t want you to be able to take a historical view of the pandemic, or compare one surge to another. In an any case, that’s why the shape of the curve has changed.

[10] (Travelers: Variants) What the heck is LB.1?

[11] Deaths low, but positivity up.

[12] Deaths low, ED up.

Stats Watch

Industrial Production: “United States Industrial Production” [Trading Economics]. “Industrial production in the United States stalled in August of 2024 compared to the same month last year, following a downwardly revised 0.7% decline in July.”

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Manufacturing: “Boeing, union negotiators to meet as striking workers dig in” [Reuters]. “The top negotiators at Boeing and the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM) will meet with federal mediators in Seattle on Tuesday for preliminary talks, a person familiar with the process said. Boeing and union negotiators are not expected to discuss details of a new offer at the meeting, which is more about setting out the rules of future talks… Union members manning picket lines outside Boeing factories in Seattle expressed little sympathy for the company’s financial plight, with many saying they were anticipating a protracted negotiating period and a weeks-long strike. ‘It makes me a little happy to see that they’re showing the first signs of struggling because I don’t think they care about their workers at all,’ said Martin Klyavkov, 20, who works building wings for the 737 MAX. ‘Boeing is going to get desperate one of these days and cave.’… Equity research firm Melius Research found median employee compensation for the aerospace and defense firms it monitors grew 12% between 2018 and 2023, while at Boeing it fell 6%. ‘I think it’ll be a while before they get an agreement,’ said Bill George, former Medtronic CEO and executive fellow at Harvard Business School. ‘The compensation may rise to the point where it’s not competitive for Boeing but that might be the lesser of a couple of evils in terms of a long strike.'” • Maybe Biden can step in and do what he did to the railroad workers.

Manufacturing: “Boeing Lays Off ‘Vital’ Contractors in Sweeping Cost Cuts” [Airline Geeks]. “The manufacturer reportedly removed ‘dozens’ of engineering contractor positions with only a day’s notice. These contractors are largely retired employees who were brought back to help fix ongoing manufacturing issues with the Boeing 777X, 787 Dreamliner, and 737 MAX. Speaking to The Seattle Times, one engineer described the contractors as ‘vital,’ calling the move ‘just another very bad decision in a continuing long line of bad decisions.'” • You come out of retirement to help Boeing, so they lay you off?

Manufacturing: “Boeing’s CFO wants to cut costs but it could be a risky maneuver” [Fortune]. The URL is more pointed: “boeing-cfo-cut-costs-amid-strike-observer-warns-death-spiral/” More: “As CFO, West wrote in a letter to employees on Monday that these actions “will create some uncertainty and concern…. Actions such as hiring freezes and furloughs are immediate cash-saving measures that will impact the bottom line, Jason Walker, founder of Thrive HR Consulting, told me. This is a pretty standard approach when you are worried about the amount of cash you are going to have on hand, he said…. [However, when] when you make this kind of decision, especially if you are Boeing, it only adds to the cultural woes of the company, Walker said. ‘Employees already have a dim view of management, and this is just going to make it worse; I think they are really in a death spiral of their own making,’ he said…. He added: ‘From whistleblower lawsuits, the new CEO buying a $4.1 million house, quality issues, and now this—the bad optics just keep going.’ Being laser-focused on the financial aspects of the company is a finance chief’s job, Walker said. However, at times, some CFOs may have “complete disregard for the people side of the business,” and employees usually figure that out quickly, he said.” • Sort of amazing the news comes from the CFO (West) and not the CEO (Ortberg). Seems to communicate who’s really in charge….

Manufacturing: “Boeing Has Too Much Debt. Here’s How Much Stock It Might Have to Issue” [Barron’s]. “Debt to Ebitda is a common measure of balance sheet strength. The average debt to Ebitda earned over the past 12 months for industrial companies in the S&P 500, excluding Boeing, is about 1.5 times…. There are about 270 investment-grade-rated non-financial companies in the S&P 500. Their average net debt to Ebitda is about 1.2 times. Almost all have generated positive Ebitda over the past 12 months and about 240 have generated positive free cash flow…. Boeing’s Ebitda generated over the past 12 months is close to zero…. [W]ith Boeing today. Free cash flow is negative because of low production. Boeing is expected to deliver some 475 planes in 2024, down from a pre-pandemic peak of more than 800 in 2018. Wall Street doesn’t project deliveries to hit 2018 levels until 2027.”

Manufacturing: “Boeing strike emotions flare as security guard flashes gun in picket line altercation” [CBS]. “An ongoing strike by 33,000 Boeing machinists took a potentially dangerous turn as a security guard displayed a gun following an altercation with workers walking a picket line on Monday outside the airplane manufacturer’s main hub in Seattle…. Boeing called the incident ‘unacceptable’ and said that the contract security guard involved would not be returning to the company.” • But the unnamed security firm will still keep the contract?

* * *

Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 54 Neutral (previous close: 50 Neutral) [CNN]. One week ago: 38 (Fear). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Sep 13 at 1:58:23 PM ET.

Social Media Watch

Certainly robust with respect to the Jackpot:

Gallery

Hockney (1):

Hockney (2):

Hockney (3):

I think the Medium matters….

Zeitgeist Watch

I guess Lawson won’t be getting any repeat business from Routh:

NOTE: YouTube now makes you log in to watch the more popular version of this clip (on which the comments are great).

Class Warfare

“Amazon mandates five days a week in office starting next year” [Reuters]. “Amazon will require employees to return to working at company offices five days per week beginning next year, toughening a prior three-day mandate. The change is necessary to ‘invent, collaborate and be connected’ wrote CEO Andy Jassy in a letter to employees on Monday posted to its website. He said the experience of a three-day mandate ‘strengthened our conviction about the benefits’ of in-office work. Companies have been allowing many employees to work from home since the pandemic, leaving downtown offices nearly empty in a number of cities such as San Francisco and Seattle. However, some tech firms are beginning to mandate employees to return to their offices two or three days per week. Amazon has taken a tougher stance than many of its rivals as COVID-19 has become less of a daily threat. Employees have described to Reuters how Amazon has required them to report to, in some cases, distant offices or move to Seattle to keep their jobs. And some employees who were consistently out of compliance with the existing three-day mandate were told they were ‘voluntarily resigning,’ and were locked out of Amazon’s systems. A spokesperson for Amazon did not immediately respond to say whether the new mandate will be as stringent, nor did an employee Q&A shared with Reuters on Monday make it clear. The mandate has been deeply unpopular among a vocal group of employees who have said working from home is both effective and spares time and money for commuting.”

News of the Wired

How it started:

How it’s going:

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Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From EH:

EH writes: “Here is a picture from May 17, 2024 of Blue-eyed Grass, flourishing all along a new wetland wild flower path in Chestertown, Maryland, where we visit friends from time to time . There is also a wild North American Strawberry growing among it. These are relatively newly planted and are thriving. I tried several times to grow this miniscule wetland/ woodland member of the iris family in my yard in Brooklyn, NY, because I remembered it growing in abundance in the woods when I lived in North Carolina, but sadly, it didn’t like my conditions.” Have any readers had better luck?

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About Lambert Strether

Readers, I have had a correspondent characterize my views as realistic cynical. Let me briefly explain them. I believe in universal programs that provide concrete material benefits, especially to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime example, but tuition-free college and a Post Office Bank also fall under this heading. So do a Jobs Guarantee and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can deliver on such programs, because the two are different flavors of neoliberalism (“Because markets”). I don’t much care about the “ism” that delivers the benefits, although whichever one does have to put common humanity first, as opposed to markets. Could be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don’t much care, as long as the benefits are delivered. To me, the key issue — and this is why Medicare for All is always first with me — is the tens of thousands of excess “deaths from despair,” as described by the Case-Deaton study, and other recent studies. That enormous body count makes Medicare for All, at the very least, a moral and strategic imperative. And that level of suffering and organic damage makes the concerns of identity politics — even the worthy fight to help the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton’s wars created — bright shiny objects by comparison. Hence my frustration with the news flow — currently in my view the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the other by out-of-power liberals and their allies in the State and in the press — a news flow that constantly forces me to focus on matters that I regard as of secondary importance to the excess deaths. What kind of political economy is it that halts or even reverses the increases in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I am also very hopeful that the continuing destruction of both party establishments will open the space for voices supporting programs similar to those I have listed; let’s call such voices “the left.” Volatility creates opportunity, especially if the Democrat establishment, which puts markets first and opposes all such programs, isn’t allowed to get back into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I love the tactical level, and secretly love even the horse race, since I’ve been blogging about it daily for fourteen years, but everything I write has this perspective at the back of it.

31 comments

  1. IM Doc

    I am almost afraid to look up what was in the Westminster Abbey that got replaced by that monstrosity. You can kind of get an idea in that one photo of looking at the window next to it.

    One thing for sure that we seem to have completely lost as a culture in the past few decades is appreciation of art and architecture that is truly transcendent – that takes you into a whole other spiritual dimension.

    That new window took me somewhere – just nowhere that was intended.

    That new window is just absolutely hideous. I cannot even believe they deigned to put that there.

    Reply
    1. IM Doc

      I had to look. It turns out that the original window was one of the last remaining “clear windows” in the entirety of Westminster Abbey. Thankfully, it appears nothing was destroyed to make room for this.

      But apparently, he did design it in one day on an iPad. That is utterly believable given how unfortunate is the finished product.

      https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/westminster-abbeys-newest-window-was-designed-david-hockney-ipad-180970427/

      I guess those white things are supposed to be some kind of berries. Excuse me, but my mind went somewhere completely different than that when I first saw those.

      Just imagine 200 years from now when people get to this window – “Kids, this window is in honor of QEII”…….”Mommy, she must have been a dreadful person…..why else would they honor her in this way?”

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      1. Pat

        This tells me two things, he didn’t really understand glass and he not only didn’t care enough about the commission to spend any time learning the medium, but also not enough to really spend any time and thought on the design itself.

        My question is whether the representatives of the Abbey were art illiterate or had some kind of celebrity crush and were embarrassed to reject it.

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      2. upstater

        You don’t get it doc… think of how cheap the new window cost compared to the one next to it. One guy did all this in a day or even a few hours. It was probably “printed” in some manner on standard size glass. If printed, no doubt the ink will fade over a few years. Esthetics and expectations need adjustment.

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      3. nippersmom

        When I compare that dreadful eyesore not only to the other windows in Westminster, but to those in the parish church my family attended when I was a child, I can’t imagine what whoever authorized this installation was thinking. One day seems like an exaggeration for the length of time spent designing that monstrosity. I think if you gave a class of elementary school students ipads and a day to come up with a design, at least one of them would have produced something more worthwhile.

        I agree completely with both Pat’s points– Hockney clearly knows nothing about the medium and couldn’t be bothered to make even the most cursory study of it; and the representatives of the Abbey are either Philistines or ridiculous fanboys/girls (possibly both).

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    2. skippy

      Reminds me of that pop art sorta fad that washes through capital cities here in Australia every few years, always rudimentary and cool crude looking for the edgy look. Which is totally in juxtaposition the homes I enter that have a life time of art collected and presented.

      In this case its “all wrong” as we say at work …. wrong colours, place, everything …..

      Its as bad as the vinyl cladding put on the workers cottage in Petrie Terrace I am working on, over 100 yrs+ hardwood timber back in the 70s.

      Reply
    3. Bugs

      There are many ways to look at it, from the position of what it represents, who it represents, and the folly of the artist. I think it’s a beautiful window to the heavens that fills a drab old church with joy.

      Reply
    4. Bazarov

      Philistinism is a common feature of imperial decadence.

      As well as gourmandism, which coincides with the appearance of celebrity chefs.

      Reply
  2. Pat

    Thurber, my late beloved tuxie, developed a weird quirk at about twelve. He would only drink from a glass besides my loft bed. That lasted until he died ten years later. I had it easier than Ali, Thurbers’s glass sat on the platform (on a paperback book to lift it a couple of inches above the mattress in the last few years) and he would sit/loaf on the bed to drink from it. My glass went on the railing. But it was more than worth it and not just that I often got to pet him during and after his drinks.

    Reply
  3. Samuel Conner

    Regarding the overheated political rhetoric that is plausibly risking “stochastic terrorism”,

    Am I right in thinking that overheated rhetoric is not limited to the speech of D-oriented speakers? I have the impression that DJT is not a careful, nuanced critic of his political adversaries. Perhaps he merits a pass because that’s just his speech style and perhaps he doesn’t actually mean much or any of it.

    I think the “face/heel” dualism applies more broadly than DJT, and lately every political actor is behaving like a heel.

    But what do I know? I’m not an R, which makes me for all practical purposes a D, and we all know that the “Ds hate America.” /s

    More philosophically, the thought occurs that even more dangerous than toying with/manipulating a person’s affections is toying with/manipulating their fears and hatreds.

    Reply
    1. Carolinian

      Trump said “lock her up.” Hillary said “lock him up for treason” (or perhaps a firing squad).

      Sorry but the Maddow/Hillary Dems are way nuttier than the MAGA. And more to the point the former have the great majority of the media in their camp. Therefore there’s no restraint.

      Reply
      1. JBird4049

        Well, it seems that to the Ruling Class and their Servants in the Professional and Managerial Class, some lives are more equal than others. They also refuse to see anything but bigotry as the reason why people are turning away from them. Since they are better than everyone else, strong measures are acceptable to chastise their inferiors. It takes great efforts to not see the suffering.

        Reply
  4. lyman alpha blob

    RE: Trump decries rhetoric

    Here’s another thing that’s not true –

    “The 58-year-old suspect appears to be, as one would expect, a nut whose politics are all over the place.”

    Seems to me, and it seemed to Taibbi and Kirn last night, that Routh’s politics were quite similar to those of Rachel Maddow and any number of other TDS impaired corporate talking heads.

    Hupke’s sound the same. So how many nuts involved here?

    Reply
  5. t

    Thank you for the random attack on Penzeys. I will not defend my deep and everlasting hatred of their stupid company and their stupid spice blends like Taco Tuesday Tika and “we stole this grody cinnamon from the dumpster behind Starbucks and put an old-timey seal on the bottle!”

    They are stupid. I hate them.

    Reply
  6. Jane

    The story of Ryan Routh is a cautionary tale.“The 58-year-old suspect appears to be, as one would expect, a nut whose politics are all over the place.”

    Arrested with an explosive device, after a standoff in his home. That’s a federal crime.

    Routh has a long history of breaking traffic laws, not paying his taxes on time and writing bad checks. But it was in 2002 that he lost his right to own a gun when he pleaded guilty to a felony in North Carolina for possessing an unregistered fully automatic machine gun.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/us/what-we-know-about-reported-suspect-behind-apparent-trump-assassination-attempt-2024-09-16/

    Never did any time. Logical conclusion, he’s a Fed informant, cutout, tool, had friends in high Democratic places.
    Why would one think that?

    The New York Times reported it had interviewed Routh in 2023 for an article about Americans who were volunteering to help the Ukraine war effort.

    Free to fly, from Hawaii without secondary inspection for terrorists, unlike ex House member and veteran Tulsi Gabbard.

    Routh photgraphed with chef Andrés. In 2015, Andrés was appointed by President Barack Obama as an ambassador for citizenship and naturalization.
    In 2022, Andrés was appointed by President Joe Biden as Co-Chair of the President’s Council on Sports, Fitness, & Nutrition.
    Andrés sued Trump.

    Routh photographed with Zelinsky, recruits soldiers of fortune for Ukraine.

    Routh tries to assasinate Trump, getting there 12 hours ahead of time for a last minute decision to play golf.

    Therefore, Routh had inside information.

    Reply
  7. Jason Boxman

    On Boeing, a post linked to a few days ago showed that from the financials the previous CEO borrowed to gamble big in the markets in 2020 or somewhere, not disclosed in the financials, and that’s part of the cash crunch now, is debt servicing for this financialization play. What they haven’t been doing for ages is investing in plant and equipment.

    What a scam.

    Reply
  8. Carolinian

    Thanx for the Mike and the gun dealer clip. And thanx to Vince Gilligan. Great movies and shows are about great writing and acting. Directors are overrated.

    Reply
    1. vao

      One tip: you may be able to download YouTube videos hidden behind a login request with some of the online YouTube-video-downloaders — though even when they work, they are often annoying.

      I managed to download the video with y2mate.com (after managing to dodge the ad page) and catchvideo.net (no ad, but only low resolution). Of course, you only get to see the video, not the associated comments. As stated above, it does not always work; thus, savefrom.net failed to access the video.

      Reply
  9. Carla

    Years ago, I sprinkled a wild-flower seed mix in my front flower bed in NE Ohio. I had blue-eyed grass here and there for decades thereafter, though I don’t recall seeing any this season.

    Reply
  10. upstater

    PSR has resulted in freight trains typically 2-3 miles in length and have been involved in disasters like East Palestine. But this was a well known fact long before; the NAS report below was chatered in 2021:

    The National Academies of Sciences Report shows link between manifest train length and derailments caused by train makeup and handling issues Trains magazine

    Long manifest trains are more likely to derail than their shorter counterparts due to excessive in-train forces – and the number of wrecks related to train makeup and handling issues has increased sharply since U.S. railroads adopted Precision Scheduled Railroading operating models that rely on ever-longer trains, according to a National Academies of Sciences report.

    The 105-page report on the impacts of freight trains longer than 7,500 feet recommends several steps that the Federal Railroad Administration should take to ensure that railroads are fully mitigating the risks associated with the operation of long manifest trains.

    Congress ordered the report as part of the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law in 2021. It specifically asked the National Academies to examine the impact of long trains on safety, grade crossings, Amtrak service, and greenhouse gas emissions.

    “The committee asked the Class I railroads, through the Association of American Railroads (AAR), to provide data on their train operations with sufficient detail to ascertain train type and length for the purpose of more granular assessments of the derailment records,” the report says. “However, restrictive conditions on the data’s availability and use, including a high degree of data aggregation and preapproval of the analytic methods to be used, foreclosed this option.

    Doesn’t the last statement from NAS say it all about the class 1 railroads? They restricted data access, denied NAS raw data and aggregated it themselves and limited analytical methods NAS could use. Why did the class 1s do this? BECAUSE THEY KNOW! The intent is clearly obfuscate and insure that public safety policy makers have insufficient information for decision support.

    Having been a quality/reliability statistician for 35 years, I know there is no substitute for raw data. The class 1s limiting data and pre-crunching it amounts to lying.

    Reply
  11. MichaelSF

    However, there’s a whole discourse built up around the question of whether killing Hitler would have been justified or not, and many say that it would have been.

    It is interesting how that thought experiment never uses the names “Curtis Lemay, Henry Kissinger, Dick Cheney, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Victoria Nuland, Joe Biden, (enter favorite war criminal here) . . .”

    Reply
  12. William Williams

    Here’s something about blue-eyed grass. It’s in my yard in Tennessee where the soil is the absolute worst (by a paved road, and where a plumbing trench was dug bringing up clay soil). I’ve also seen it in abundance in open fields at Red Clay State Park (a historic site where the Cherokee learned they would soon be forced to leave their homelands of 1000 generations).
    https://www.thespruce.com/blue-eyed-grass-plant-profile-5070471

    Reply
  13. Ranger Rick

    Do we have reliable numbers on how many people are estimated to have had asymptomatic COVID-19? Because it is likely going to match the proportion of people who do not expect to have it in the future. They not only have, but have had it multiple times, and never noticed.

    Reply
  14. Brian Beijer

    “A life long pet resistant human who had allergies now has a kitten in his home. Wish me well.”

    I was never a ” pet resistant human” as a child, but I certainly had allergies. I was allergic to milk, eggs, shellfish, dogs, cats, chocolate, tomatoes, pollen, grass, etc. My mom, in the ’70s, first gave me a dog when I was three years old. Then, she introduced me to milk, tomatoes and chocolate. She encouraged me to ride my bike outside with my friends until dark. Thereby exposing to pollen throughout the seasons. My mom gave me a cat when I was eight years old. He lived until he was 22 years old, and I slept with him every night until I left home.

    Throughout my upbringing, my mom taught me that “what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger”. We even watched “Steel Magnolias” together my freshman year in college, and it was the first time I saw my mother cry.
    Nietzsche may have been an ass, but he certainly knew how to raise a child with allergies.

    Reply
  15. Patrick Morrison

    stochastic: “randomly determined; having a random probability distribution or pattern that may be analyzed statistically but may not be predicted precisely.” (Oxford online dictionary)

    ‘ambient’: ‘relating to the immediate surroundings of something.’

    I know the definitions don’t quite line up, but would ‘ambient terrorism’ be an acceptable substitute for ‘stochastic terrorism?’ For me, it’s a slightly more common word that conveys the notion that there’s something in the air. Open to revision here.

    Reply

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