2:00PM Water Cooler 9/17/2024

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Bird Song of the Day

Gray Catbird, DD Rd, Rapid River US-MI, Delta, Michigan, United States.

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In Case You Might Miss…

  1. Boeing strike news (thickheaded management digs deeper).
  2. Trump assassination roundup, now with stochastic terrorism.
  3. The new kitten.

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Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

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Trump Assassination Attempts (Plural)

Not wrong:

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“The Assassination Wish Fulfillment” [John Poderhoretz, Commentary]. I never thought I’d find myself quoting J-Pod with approval, but here we are. “On Tuesday, Morning Joe’s Mika Brzezinski introduced a report on the attempt by Garrett Haake, and then when the camera returned to her face, launched into a two-minute history (read off a teleprompter, so therefore pre-planned by the show’s producer and theoretically approved in some fashion by MSNBC’s senior management) of all the times Trump has encouraged violence. She stitched together the genuinely disturbing (January 6 is “gonna be wild,” went the Trump tweet) with the jokey (Trump’s line about how he could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and get away with it) and the transparently dishonest (that he supported the neo-Nazis in Charlottesville in 2017). The net result was a five-minute segment that, once again, was designed to make you think Trump was asking for it…. Let’s talk tachlis, as we say in Hebrew. Let’s talk straight. The reason so many people in this country seem determined not to consider the profound seriousness of a potential new age of assassination—a return to the destabilizing period that tormented this country and the West between JFK in 1963 and the Reagan/John Paul II attempts in 1981—is that it represents a dark wish fulfillment for so many people…. A great many people, and most of the nation’s elites, secretly or not so secretly wish they could see the result sought by would-be killers Routh and Cheeks. And while they know they must pay lip service to the fact that assassinations are bad and wrong and shocking and all that, they simply cannot muster up the emotion of horror. That’s what’s missing here from the coverage and discussions of these two attempts: Horror. Because they’re not horrified. And they should be. This is the darkest kind of fantasy, because it can be fulfilled—and the consequences would be unthinkably dangerous for the future of this country.” • Speaking of wish-fulfillment:

The stitched blue X’s for the (dead) eyes are an especially cute touch, aren’t they? Who’s selling this kitsch? Penzeys?

“Democrats’ Rhetoric Inspired Another Attempt On President Trump’s Life” [Donald J. Trump]. Issued by the campaign, but this is the version I found. “Yesterday, President Donald J. Trump was the target of a second assassination attempt in as many months. Thankfully, the would-be assassin was stopped by the heroic action of law enforcement — but make no mistake, this psycho was egged on by the rhetoric and lies [stochatic terrorism] that have flowed from Kamala Harris, Democrats, and their Fake News allies for years. Democrats used increasingly incendiary rhetoric against President Trump in the days, weeks, and months leading up to the two assassination attempts.” • A long list of receipts, with links. The Democrats, having developed and propagated the theory of stochastic terrorism (see yesterday’s post) now don’t get to claim that “the use of mass communications to stir up random lone wolves” doesn’t apply to their rhetoric. Oddly, there are no Trump-as-Hitler refererences in the receipts; presumably because the campaign didn’t want to reinforce it. This matters, at least to the moralist, because while preserving “our democracy” might be a casus belli, it is typically not used as an excuse for assassination (Sic semper tyrannis being the counter-example). However, there’s a whole discourse built up around the question of whether killing Hitler would have been justified or not, and many say that it would have been.

“After possible assassination attempt, Trump decries ‘rhetoric’? Spare me the sanctimony.” [Rex Hupke, USA Today]. The deck: “The idea that Harris or her campaign should stop talking about the threat Trump poses to our democracy is absurd. Democrats are not encouraging any form of violence against him or anyone else.” “• The difficulty here is that (as I show here) not only hated Trump, wrote that “you are free to assassinate Trump,” and quoted the “our democracy” talking point. So when Hupke writes: “There is zero evidence connecting either gunman to Democrats calling Trump ‘a threat to democracy'” he’s not telling the truth.

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“Why Did Journalists Like Me Take Ryan Routh Seriously?” [The Free Press]. Worth reading in full; kudos for the mea culpa, rare in the press: “In March 2023 I interviewed a strange man named Ryan Routh. We had been introduced by a source inside Ukraine’s foreign legion, a military unit composed of foreign volunteers from more than fifty countries all over the world…. He seemed genuinely passionate, if perhaps a little too eager to aid a foreign war halfway around the world. After my story published, I never thought about him again. Until yesterday, that is, when the name Ryan Routh exploded across my phone—and yours…. The guy moves to the capital of a nation at war, despite having no personal connection to it. He doesn’t speak Russian or Ukrainian. In retrospect, shouldn’t it have struck the reporters, including myself, as a little bit. . . odd? The question is: Why didn’t it? Well, for one, I thought he was doing good work: It was clear he cared deeply about Ukraine’s struggle. I am Russian—born and raised in Moscow—but I consider the Russian war against Ukraine an unjustified act of aggression. So did Ryan Routh….. The story of Ryan Routh is a cautionary tale. Our increasing willingness to tolerate madness in the service of the causes with which we might agree risks obscuring the simple fact that the ‘right’ kind of crazy is still exactly that: crazy.” • Larry Summers, for example, is “the right kind of crazy.”

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“DeSantis says federal authorities investigating thwarted Trump attack ‘may not be the best thing'” [Washington Examiner]. In links today, but adding this comment: “‘We also believe that there is a need to make sure that the truth about all this comes out in a way that’s credible,’ DeSantis said at a Monday press conference. ‘I look at the federal government, with all due respect to them, those same agencies that are prosecuting Trump in that jurisdiction are now going to be investigating this? I just think that that may not be the best thing for this country.'” • Much as I loathe DeSantis, he’s right (though also capable of messing up the Florida investigation, especially because Florida law enforcement is also involved; we’ll have to see). It makes no sense to hand the case over to the lawfare goons.

“US Secret Service can’t guarantee Trump and Harris safety from more gunmen, sources warn” [iNews]. • There are no guarantees in this life. But holy moley, Biden and Harriss are supposedly running the administration. And the organs of state security get whatever they ask for. And operationally, what they have said is that when a sitting President plays golf, the golf course gets surrounded. We can’t do that for a former President who’s already been shot at once? It’s ridiculous. (Recall also that Biden refused RFK protection, despite his family history.)

2024

Less than sixty days to go!

Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:

A few polls post-debate, but as of this reading little change. To be fair, it might take some time for sentiment to settle; and the winning margins may at this point be so minute as to be undetectable. Still, the Democrats must be very puzzled to have virtual unanimity across the political spectrum that “Harris is the one” — it was a tidal wave, after the debate — and yet the election is a virtual tie. How can this be? Perhaps a few more Republicans, generals, or celebrities will turn the tide.

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Trump (R): “Will two assassination attempts alter the election?” [The Hill]. “The New York Times: ‘The shock from the shooting in Butler [Pa.] wore off relatively quickly as attention turned to other developments. The shock from this one may not last any longer.'” • “Shock” is a media thing. What matters is turnout, especially in Pennsylvania (the site of the first shooting).

Trump (R): “The Memo: Attempt on Trump’s life reverberates in White House race” [The Hill]. “The second attempt on Trump’s life within roughly nine weeks will surely rev up his base, further heightening the passions of supporters who are already prone to believe that the 45th president is a target of larger, nefarious forces. It’s possible the apparent attempt on Trump’s life could also win over whatever thin sliver of the electorate still populates the center ground — a factor that could be important in a presidential race against Vice President Harris that is essentially deadlocked. The startling chain of events could perhaps solidify some of Trump’s softer supporters — those Republican-minded or socially conservative voters who are hesitant to back the former president because of his belligerent rhetoric and penchant for personal invective.” • Yes, let’s be serious. Is Trump offering anybody ice cream? I rest my case.

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

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Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

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Transmission: Covid

“Oscillating spatiotemporal patterns of COVID-19 in the United States” [Nature]. From the Discussion: “Annual cycling of respiratory virus transmission, including common cold coronaviruses, is well documented, so the rough annual frequency traced by the two national COVID case rate curves… was not surprising. However, our finding of the additional EUCO and NUCO regional oscillators of COVID-19 case rates was unexpected. Additionally, our observation that COVID-19 case rates repeatedly increased each summer in the southern US was unexpected, as this observation runs counter to the expected associations of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and colder weather. If the south had a single peak each year, it might indeed be possible to explain the oscillation by the annual temperature cycle, but the south had not just one but two annual peaks, one in the hottest months of July and August, and the other in January and February. The surge of cases in the south in the summer is contrary to the expected seasonal surges of common respiratory viruses, and inconsistent with the hypothesis that they are related to colder temperatures in the conventional way. Isolation of mode II data as we have done here, and essentially discarding other mode data as noise, should facilitate studies to find the mechanistic drivers of this strong north–south epidemic oscillator.” • In other words, it’s not useful to think of Covid as “seasonal” (making it all the more unfortunate that News Medical coverage describes these oscillations as “seasonal”). I hope an epidemiologist in the readership can take a look at this, because it’s fascinating.

“Unexpected six-month pattern of COVID-19 cases discovered in the U.S.” [News-Medical Life Sciences]. “COVID-19 cases in the U.S. have shown unexpected oscillating waves every six months between the southern states and the northern states and, to a lesser degree, from east to west, according to new research published today in Scientific Reports.

Public health scientists from the University of Pittsburgh, University of Ottawa and University of Washington conducted the first detailed analysis to demonstrate and characterize the six-month oscillation of cases across space and time.

Transmission: H5N1

“Missouri Bird Flu Case Raises Possibility of Human Transmission” [US News]. “U.S. health officials have reported that a person who lived with a Missouri resident infected with H5N1 became sick the same day… Still, CDC officials told the New York Times on Friday night that there was ‘no epidemiological evidence at this time to support person-to-person transmission of H5N1,’ although more research is needed… Before the Friday report was posted, neither the CDC nor Missouri health officials had mentioned the close contact’s illness. In fact, CDC officials said in a Thursday media briefing that it was unclear how the first patient had become infected and called the case ‘a one-off.’ And on Thursday evening, Missouri health officials said that ‘all contacts are known and remained asymptomatic during the observation period,’ the Times reported. But by Friday, CDC officials acknowledged that the household contact’s illness ‘should have been mentioned in the press briefing, along with the additional context,’ the Times reported, though the risk to the public remains low, officials said. Still, outside experts criticized the omission. ‘There are absolutely no circumstances in which it is acceptable to not have disclosed that information yesterday,’ Jennifer Nuzzo, director of the Pandemic Center at the Brown University School of Public Health, told the Times on Friday.” • Lie, lie, lie….

Variants: Covid

“We have lived through a Covid summer – and now there is new variant causing concern” [Independent]. “And according to experts a new ‘stronger’ variant is now spreading across Europe. First identified as the XEC strain in Germany in June, global health experts believe that it could be the dominant variant within months and cause a new spike when the weather turns colder.” • No, it’s not the effing weather [pounds head on desk].

“COVID variant XEC sees rapid global growth: What to know about the new strain” [USA Today]. “XEC and a variant known as MV.1 seem poised to become the next dominant strains, scientists say…. ;At this juncture, the XEC variant appears to be the most likely one to get legs next,’ Scripps Research Translational Institute Director Eric Topol wrote on X.”

Sequelae: Covid

“Did the Pandemic Break Our Brains?” [Time]. “In the U.S. alone, about a million more working-age adults reported having serious difficulty remembering, concentrating, or making decisions in 2023 compared to before the pandemic, according to a New York Times analysis of Census Bureau data. It’s not outlandish to think the pandemic has had an effect on our minds, says Jonas Vibell, a cognitive and behavioral neuroscientist at the University of Hawaii at Manoa. Vibell is currently trying to measure post-COVID inflammation and neuronal damage in the brains of people who report symptoms like brain fog, sluggishness, or reduced energy. When he began publicizing the study, he says, ‘I got so many emails from lots of people saying the same thing”: that they’d never fully bounced back after the pandemic. But why?” Let the minimization begin! “It’s probably a mix of things, Vibell says. The SARS-CoV-2 virus can affect the brain directly, as many studies have now shown. But the pandemic may have also affected cognition in less-obvious ways. Months or years spent at home, living most of life through screens, may have left a lingering mark. Even though society is now mostly back to normal, the trauma of living through a terrifying, unprecedented health crisis can be hard to shake.” Back to mechanisms instead of vibes: “COVID-19 has been linked to serious cognitive problems, including dementia and suicidal thinking. And brain fog, a common symptom of Long COVID, can be so profound that people are unable to live the lives and work the jobs they once did. But COVID-19 also seems able to affect the brain in subtler ways. A 2024 study in the New England Journal of Medicine compared the cognitive performance of people who’d fully recovered from COVID-19 with that of a similar group of people who’d never had the virus. The COVID-19 group did worse, equivalent to a deficit of about three IQ points.” • A-a-a-n-d back to vibes. (Normally, I’m all for rich, nuanced explanations involving sociology and psychology. But I don’t think the should be put on the same analytical plane as biological mechanisms, especially when those mechanisms have very strong backing in the literature, and that’s what this article does.)

Morbidity and Mortality

“Covid-19 may lead to longest period of peacetime excess mortality, says new Swiss Re report” (press release) [Swiss Re]. “Report suggests potential excess mortality in the general population of up to 3% for the US by 2033 and 2.5% in the UK, the longest period of elevated peacetime excess mortality in the US. Key driver of excess mortality is the lingering impact of COVID-19; both as a direct cause of death, and as a contributor to cardiovascular mortality. Reducing the impact of COVID-19 on elderly and vulnerable populations will be key to excess mortality returning to zero.” • Who said it was “peacetime”? Commentary:

Elite Maleficence

“A Brief History of American Eugenics” [Jessica Wildfire, Sentinel Intelligence]. “The idea itself originated with Charles Darwin’s cousin, Francis Galton, who invented the term in 1883. He argued that governments should play a more direct role in “improving” the human race through a range of policies. By the early 20th century, eugenics had become a widely accepted idea in western culture, endorsed by everyone from Winston Churchill to Woodrow Wilson and taught in hundreds of universities from Northwestern to Harvard. British eugenicists ultimately rejected the American spin on the idea, finding it completely horrifying…. Darwin’s cousin created the word, but it only gave Americans a term to articulate ideas that were circulating for decades, all rooted in a national obsession with racial and spiritual purity. The history matters because eugenics has returned stronger than ever in American culture, resting on the tip of every complacent tongue as Americans ignore genocide abroad while committing social murder at home, casually mocking anyone who still wears a mask and framing anyone in favor of public health as fringe, anxious, or just plain weird. What you see in America’s history is a desire to rid society of the ‘undesirable’ going back to the late 19th century and leading to the peak of the eugenics movement in the 1930s.” • Well worth a read, though I would like the proponents brought up to the present day.

Social Norming

A Quiet Place (“A family struggles for survival in a world invaded by alien creatures with ultra-sensitive hearing”):

“Half of Americans never think they’ll get COVID again” [Ipsos]. Handy chart:

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TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

Lambert here: First time in a long time I’ve seen national trends downward for both positivity and hospitalization. Even if wastewater still looks pretty ugly, that’s very good news. I assume that what’s going on is the end of the Summer Vacation cycle of infection, and there will be a short lull until the beginning of the Back to School cycle. If not, that will be a very good sign.

Wastewater
This week[1] CDC September 9 Last Week[2] CDC (until next week):

Variants [3] CDC September 14 Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC September 7

Hospitalization
New York[5] New York State, data September 16: National [6] CDC August 24:

Positivity
National[7] Walgreens September 16: Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic September 7:

Travelers Data
Positivity[9] CDC August 26: Variants[10] CDC August 26:

Deaths
Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11]CDC September 7: Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12]CDC September 9:

LEGEND

1) for charts new today; all others are not updated.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, with hot spots annotated. Keeps spreading. NOTE The date seems to be wrong, but the number of sites has changed so this is new.

[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* very popular. XDV.1 flat.

[4] (ED) Down, but worth noting that Emergency Department use is now on a par with the first wave, in 2020.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Definitely down.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). The visualization suppresses what is, in percentage terms, a significant increase.

[7] (Walgreens) Big drop continues!

[8] (Cleveland) Dropping.

[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Down. Those sh*theads at CDC have changed the chart so that it doesn’t even run back to 1/21/23, as it used to, but now starts 1/1/24. There’s also no way to adjust the time range. CDC really doesn’t want you to be able to take a historical view of the pandemic, or compare one surge to another. In an any case, that’s why the shape of the curve has changed.

[10] (Travelers: Variants) What the heck is LB.1?

[11] Deaths low, but positivity up.

[12] Deaths low, ED up.

Stats Watch

Industrial Production: “United States Industrial Production” [Trading Economics]. “Industrial production in the United States stalled in August of 2024 compared to the same month last year, following a downwardly revised 0.7% decline in July.”

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Manufacturing: “Boeing, union negotiators to meet as striking workers dig in” [Reuters]. “The top negotiators at Boeing and the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM) will meet with federal mediators in Seattle on Tuesday for preliminary talks, a person familiar with the process said. Boeing and union negotiators are not expected to discuss details of a new offer at the meeting, which is more about setting out the rules of future talks… Union members manning picket lines outside Boeing factories in Seattle expressed little sympathy for the company’s financial plight, with many saying they were anticipating a protracted negotiating period and a weeks-long strike. ‘It makes me a little happy to see that they’re showing the first signs of struggling because I don’t think they care about their workers at all,’ said Martin Klyavkov, 20, who works building wings for the 737 MAX. ‘Boeing is going to get desperate one of these days and cave.’… Equity research firm Melius Research found median employee compensation for the aerospace and defense firms it monitors grew 12% between 2018 and 2023, while at Boeing it fell 6%. ‘I think it’ll be a while before they get an agreement,’ said Bill George, former Medtronic CEO and executive fellow at Harvard Business School. ‘The compensation may rise to the point where it’s not competitive for Boeing but that might be the lesser of a couple of evils in terms of a long strike.'” • Maybe Biden can step in and do what he did to the railroad workers.

Manufacturing: “Boeing Lays Off ‘Vital’ Contractors in Sweeping Cost Cuts” [Airline Geeks]. “The manufacturer reportedly removed ‘dozens’ of engineering contractor positions with only a day’s notice. These contractors are largely retired employees who were brought back to help fix ongoing manufacturing issues with the Boeing 777X, 787 Dreamliner, and 737 MAX. Speaking to The Seattle Times, one engineer described the contractors as ‘vital,’ calling the move ‘just another very bad decision in a continuing long line of bad decisions.'” • You come out of retirement to help Boeing, so they lay you off?

Manufacturing: “Boeing’s CFO wants to cut costs but it could be a risky maneuver” [Fortune]. The URL is more pointed: “boeing-cfo-cut-costs-amid-strike-observer-warns-death-spiral/” More: “As CFO, West wrote in a letter to employees on Monday that these actions “will create some uncertainty and concern…. Actions such as hiring freezes and furloughs are immediate cash-saving measures that will impact the bottom line, Jason Walker, founder of Thrive HR Consulting, told me. This is a pretty standard approach when you are worried about the amount of cash you are going to have on hand, he said…. [However, when] when you make this kind of decision, especially if you are Boeing, it only adds to the cultural woes of the company, Walker said. ‘Employees already have a dim view of management, and this is just going to make it worse; I think they are really in a death spiral of their own making,’ he said…. He added: ‘From whistleblower lawsuits, the new CEO buying a $4.1 million house, quality issues, and now this—the bad optics just keep going.’ Being laser-focused on the financial aspects of the company is a finance chief’s job, Walker said. However, at times, some CFOs may have “complete disregard for the people side of the business,” and employees usually figure that out quickly, he said.” • Sort of amazing the news comes from the CFO (West) and not the CEO (Ortberg). Seems to communicate who’s really in charge….

Manufacturing: “Boeing Has Too Much Debt. Here’s How Much Stock It Might Have to Issue” [Barron’s]. “Debt to Ebitda is a common measure of balance sheet strength. The average debt to Ebitda earned over the past 12 months for industrial companies in the S&P 500, excluding Boeing, is about 1.5 times…. There are about 270 investment-grade-rated non-financial companies in the S&P 500. Their average net debt to Ebitda is about 1.2 times. Almost all have generated positive Ebitda over the past 12 months and about 240 have generated positive free cash flow…. Boeing’s Ebitda generated over the past 12 months is close to zero…. [W]ith Boeing today. Free cash flow is negative because of low production. Boeing is expected to deliver some 475 planes in 2024, down from a pre-pandemic peak of more than 800 in 2018. Wall Street doesn’t project deliveries to hit 2018 levels until 2027.”

Manufacturing: “Boeing strike emotions flare as security guard flashes gun in picket line altercation” [CBS]. “An ongoing strike by 33,000 Boeing machinists took a potentially dangerous turn as a security guard displayed a gun following an altercation with workers walking a picket line on Monday outside the airplane manufacturer’s main hub in Seattle…. Boeing called the incident ‘unacceptable’ and said that the contract security guard involved would not be returning to the company.” • But the unnamed security firm will still keep the contract?

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Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 54 Neutral (previous close: 50 Neutral) [CNN]. One week ago: 38 (Fear). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Sep 13 at 1:58:23 PM ET.

Social Media Watch

Certainly robust with respect to the Jackpot:

Gallery

Hockney (1):

Hockney (2):

Hockney (3):

I think the Medium matters….

Zeitgeist Watch

I guess Lawson won’t be getting any repeat business from Routh:

NOTE: YouTube now makes you log in to watch the more popular version of this clip (on which the comments are great).

Class Warfare

“Amazon mandates five days a week in office starting next year” [Reuters]. “Amazon will require employees to return to working at company offices five days per week beginning next year, toughening a prior three-day mandate. The change is necessary to ‘invent, collaborate and be connected’ wrote CEO Andy Jassy in a letter to employees on Monday posted to its website. He said the experience of a three-day mandate ‘strengthened our conviction about the benefits’ of in-office work. Companies have been allowing many employees to work from home since the pandemic, leaving downtown offices nearly empty in a number of cities such as San Francisco and Seattle. However, some tech firms are beginning to mandate employees to return to their offices two or three days per week. Amazon has taken a tougher stance than many of its rivals as COVID-19 has become less of a daily threat. Employees have described to Reuters how Amazon has required them to report to, in some cases, distant offices or move to Seattle to keep their jobs. And some employees who were consistently out of compliance with the existing three-day mandate were told they were ‘voluntarily resigning,’ and were locked out of Amazon’s systems. A spokesperson for Amazon did not immediately respond to say whether the new mandate will be as stringent, nor did an employee Q&A shared with Reuters on Monday make it clear. The mandate has been deeply unpopular among a vocal group of employees who have said working from home is both effective and spares time and money for commuting.”

News of the Wired

How it started:

How it’s going:

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Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From EH:

EH writes: “Here is a picture from May 17, 2024 of Blue-eyed Grass, flourishing all along a new wetland wild flower path in Chestertown, Maryland, where we visit friends from time to time . There is also a wild North American Strawberry growing among it. These are relatively newly planted and are thriving. I tried several times to grow this miniscule wetland/ woodland member of the iris family in my yard in Brooklyn, NY, because I remembered it growing in abundance in the woods when I lived in North Carolina, but sadly, it didn’t like my conditions.” Have any readers had better luck?

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About Lambert Strether

Readers, I have had a correspondent characterize my views as realistic cynical. Let me briefly explain them. I believe in universal programs that provide concrete material benefits, especially to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime example, but tuition-free college and a Post Office Bank also fall under this heading. So do a Jobs Guarantee and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can deliver on such programs, because the two are different flavors of neoliberalism (“Because markets”). I don’t much care about the “ism” that delivers the benefits, although whichever one does have to put common humanity first, as opposed to markets. Could be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don’t much care, as long as the benefits are delivered. To me, the key issue — and this is why Medicare for All is always first with me — is the tens of thousands of excess “deaths from despair,” as described by the Case-Deaton study, and other recent studies. That enormous body count makes Medicare for All, at the very least, a moral and strategic imperative. And that level of suffering and organic damage makes the concerns of identity politics — even the worthy fight to help the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton’s wars created — bright shiny objects by comparison. Hence my frustration with the news flow — currently in my view the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the other by out-of-power liberals and their allies in the State and in the press — a news flow that constantly forces me to focus on matters that I regard as of secondary importance to the excess deaths. What kind of political economy is it that halts or even reverses the increases in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I am also very hopeful that the continuing destruction of both party establishments will open the space for voices supporting programs similar to those I have listed; let’s call such voices “the left.” Volatility creates opportunity, especially if the Democrat establishment, which puts markets first and opposes all such programs, isn’t allowed to get back into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I love the tactical level, and secretly love even the horse race, since I’ve been blogging about it daily for fourteen years, but everything I write has this perspective at the back of it.

85 comments

  1. IM Doc

    I am almost afraid to look up what was in the Westminster Abbey that got replaced by that monstrosity. You can kind of get an idea in that one photo of looking at the window next to it.

    One thing for sure that we seem to have completely lost as a culture in the past few decades is appreciation of art and architecture that is truly transcendent – that takes you into a whole other spiritual dimension.

    That new window took me somewhere – just nowhere that was intended.

    That new window is just absolutely hideous. I cannot even believe they deigned to put that there.

      1. Revenant

        It looks like a Sunday School colouring book version of the Necronomicon: “The Meeting of the Elder Gods”. What in god’s name are all the tentacular and blobby things? They are not Nature!

    1. IM Doc

      I had to look. It turns out that the original window was one of the last remaining “clear windows” in the entirety of Westminster Abbey. Thankfully, it appears nothing was destroyed to make room for this.

      But apparently, he did design it in one day on an iPad. That is utterly believable given how unfortunate is the finished product.

      https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/westminster-abbeys-newest-window-was-designed-david-hockney-ipad-180970427/

      I guess those white things are supposed to be some kind of berries. Excuse me, but my mind went somewhere completely different than that when I first saw those.

      Just imagine 200 years from now when people get to this window – “Kids, this window is in honor of QEII”…….”Mommy, she must have been a dreadful person…..why else would they honor her in this way?”

      1. Pat

        This tells me two things, he didn’t really understand glass and he not only didn’t care enough about the commission to spend any time learning the medium, but also not enough to really spend any time and thought on the design itself.

        My question is whether the representatives of the Abbey were art illiterate or had some kind of celebrity crush and were embarrassed to reject it.

      2. upstater

        You don’t get it doc… think of how cheap the new window cost compared to the one next to it. One guy did all this in a day or even a few hours. It was probably “printed” in some manner on standard size glass. If printed, no doubt the ink will fade over a few years. Esthetics and expectations need adjustment.

      3. nippersmom

        When I compare that dreadful eyesore not only to the other windows in Westminster, but to those in the parish church my family attended when I was a child, I can’t imagine what whoever authorized this installation was thinking. One day seems like an exaggeration for the length of time spent designing that monstrosity. I think if you gave a class of elementary school students ipads and a day to come up with a design, at least one of them would have produced something more worthwhile.

        I agree completely with both Pat’s points– Hockney clearly knows nothing about the medium and couldn’t be bothered to make even the most cursory study of it; and the representatives of the Abbey are either Philistines or ridiculous fanboys/girls (possibly both).

        1. Amfortas the Hippie

          aye.
          local catholic church has a ceiling with blue sky(for to keep the wasps from building homes, it turns out), puffly cumulus clouds and numerous angels…all lovingly repainted every 2 decades or so by local people(usually mexicans…white catholics cannot be bothered from their perches on the morally high ground/stylites)

      4. ChrisPacific

        I had to look up what it was supposed to be and I still don’t see it.

        To me it looks like Red Riding Hood has just emerged victorious from a battle with several cephalopods of varying sizes and is preparing to feast on their remains.

    2. skippy

      Reminds me of that pop art sorta fad that washes through capital cities here in Australia every few years, always rudimentary and cool crude looking for the edgy look. Which is totally in juxtaposition the homes I enter that have a life time of art collected and presented.

      In this case its “all wrong” as we say at work …. wrong colours, place, everything …..

      Its as bad as the vinyl cladding put on the workers cottage in Petrie Terrace I am working on, over 100 yrs+ hardwood timber back in the 70s.

    3. Bugs

      There are many ways to look at it, from the position of what it represents, who it represents, and the folly of the artist. I think it’s a beautiful window to the heavens that fills a drab old church with joy.

    4. Bazarov

      Philistinism is a common feature of imperial decadence.

      As well as gourmandism, which coincides with the appearance of celebrity chefs.

    5. wol

      IM D: ’One thing for sure that we seem to have completely lost as a culture in the past few decades is appreciation of art and architecture that is truly transcendent – that takes you into a whole other spiritual dimension.’

      I blame Duchamp and the academy’s crush on Foucalt. An antidote I’m looking forward to is the upcoming Friedrich exhibition at the Met https://www.metmuseum.org/exhibitions/caspar-david-friedrich-the-soul-of-nature. A reproduction of his self-portrait and a photo of Mark Rothko are on my studio wall.

      1. Amfortas the Hippie

        i dont know….i saw an exhibition of dada at the menil collection in houston…late 80’s, i guess…The Fountain was there…but i was young and wild and on the lam already…as well as high as f^&k.
        i found it quite liberating at the time.
        Rothko’s Chapel was next door, of course….had many friends’ sendoffs there….in the ensuing years….likely because i had taken them there,lol.
        that was, aftr all, before i became cynical, and was instead a sort of amateur shaman guy…with kerouacian features, to be sure…just certain that i could change the world if i just turned enough people on.

      2. Harold

        According to Linda Dalrymple Henderson, Duchamp was the last artist who could actually understand the mathematical origins of cubism and other early abstract art of the early years of the 19th century. For many of these artists the fourth dimension suggested the realm of the spiritual beyond our mundane three dimensional world.

        https://mitpress.mit.edu/9780262536554/the-fourth-dimension-and-non-euclidean-geometry-in-modern-art/
        Excerpt from publisher’s blurb:

        In this groundbreaking study …. Linda Dalrymple Henderson demonstrates that two concepts of space beyond immediate perception—the curved spaces of non-Euclidean geometry and, most important, a higher, fourth dimension of space—were central to the development of modern art. The possibility of a spatial fourth dimension suggested that our world might be merely a shadow or section of a higher dimensional existence. That iconoclastic idea encouraged radical innovation by a variety of early twentieth-century artists, ranging from French Cubists, Italian Futurists, and Marcel Duchamp, to Max Weber, Kazimir Malevich, and the artists of De Stijl and Surrealism. … Although largely eclipsed by relativity theory beginning in the 1920s, the spatial fourth dimension experienced a resurgence during the later 1950s and 1960s. In a remarkable turn of events, it has returned as an important theme in contemporary culture in the wake of the emergence in the 1980s of both string theory in physics (with its ten- or eleven-dimensional universes) and computer graphics. [In the recent revision of her 1983 book] Henderson demonstrates the importance of this new conception of space for figures ranging from Buckminster Fuller, Robert Smithson, and the Park Place Gallery group in the 1960s to Tony Robbin and digital architect Marcos Novak.

        I haven’t read the new edition of Henderson’s book, but it has occurred to me that Robert Rauschenberg’s early works might have been inspired directly or indirectly by some of the writings of Walter Benjamin.
        I’m a fan of the Menil collection, by the way.

    6. The Rev Kev

      Agree with your use of the word hideous. It is almost cartoonish. Things is, that art like that should relate to the context within it is placed. When in another image you can see one of the ancient windows to the right, there is not only no comparison but they have nothing in common. Westminster Abbey really screwed up here trying to be trendy instead of being one for the ages. One day it will be replaced.

  2. Pat

    Thurber, my late beloved tuxie, developed a weird quirk at about twelve. He would only drink from a glass besides my loft bed. That lasted until he died ten years later. I had it easier than Ali, Thurbers’s glass sat on the platform (on a paperback book to lift it a couple of inches above the mattress in the last few years) and he would sit/loaf on the bed to drink from it. My glass went on the railing. But it was more than worth it and not just that I often got to pet him during and after his drinks.

    1. Nikkikat

      My tuxie cat, would only drink from the faucet in the bathroom.
      Brought her in at about 8 months, she would go in bathroom and meow and make whining noises, until I came in and turned on faucet for her to drink. Wouldnt touch any of several bowls of water.
      Then bought her a cat fountain put it in kitchen and she drank from fountain. She started drinking out of bowl after we added another cat, he drank from a bowl. Cutest cats in the world, tuxedos.

  3. Samuel Conner

    Regarding the overheated political rhetoric that is plausibly risking “stochastic terrorism”,

    Am I right in thinking that overheated rhetoric is not limited to the speech of D-oriented speakers? I have the impression that DJT is not a careful, nuanced critic of his political adversaries. Perhaps he merits a pass because that’s just his speech style and perhaps he doesn’t actually mean much or any of it.

    I think the “face/heel” dualism applies more broadly than DJT, and lately every political actor is behaving like a heel.

    But what do I know? I’m not an R, which makes me for all practical purposes a D, and we all know that the “Ds hate America.” /s

    More philosophically, the thought occurs that even more dangerous than toying with/manipulating a person’s affections is toying with/manipulating their fears and hatreds.

    1. Carolinian

      Trump said “lock her up.” Hillary said “lock him up for treason” (or perhaps a firing squad).

      Sorry but the Maddow/Hillary Dems are way nuttier than the MAGA. And more to the point the former have the great majority of the media in their camp. Therefore there’s no restraint.

      1. JBird4049

        Well, it seems that to the Ruling Class and their Servants in the Professional and Managerial Class, some lives are more equal than others. They also refuse to see anything but bigotry as the reason why people are turning away from them. Since they are better than everyone else, strong measures are acceptable to chastise their inferiors. It takes great efforts to not see the suffering.

    2. Lambert Strether Post author

      > Am I right in thinking that overheated rhetoric is not limited to the speech of D-oriented speakers?

      Totally not, you are quite right. What gets me is (a) at least the R’s aren’t morally preening about it; and (b) the R’s also have — so far, long may it continue — the only Presidential candidate whose assasassination has been attempted (twice).

      1. albrt

        What is most disturbing to me is that the Dem/PMC crowd is totally blind to the race to the bottom, not just on violent rhetoric but on all substantive issues. No matter how bad it gets, the Dem/PMC rhetoric/position is always completely justified, the Rep/MAGA rhetoric is always completely unjustified.

        From my point of view the Rep/MAGA folks have been leading the race to the bottom, but at least my acquaintances who are sympathetic to that side seem to recognize what they’re doing. They see what they’re doing as justified because they’re under attack, and they see the Dem/PMC erasure and delegitimization of their views as the core of the attack.

        1. IM Doc

          When they go low, we go high.

          I am old enough to remember that Dem slogan. It may have even prompted me to get out my checkbook. That was a lifetime ago, however.

          1. hk

            Well, in an odd way, they are sort of still doing that, except, when the Reps go for the low SES, Dems go for high SES–like Schumer supposedly said, “for every working class person Reps get, we’ll get two PMC’s,” except the numbers can’t add up b/c there are still more “working class” than PMC’s–especially at the rate Dems are impovering the middle America.

            1. eg

              The only reason this strategy hasn’t completely imploded yet are the relative voting rates of those two cohorts.

              1. hk

                Yet, many Dems remain in the delusion that they’ll be electorally invincible if people turn out at higher rates in general, not realizing that, as they moved to the high SES demographics while abandoning the low, they suffer from the same issues as the old timey GOP.

      2. KLG

        I was in third grade on November 22, 1963. JFK’s assassination was not announced in my elementary school. I learned of it as I climbed into a blue and white 1961 Chevrolet Impala when my mother picked me up from school at 2:30. Yes, you never forget certain things. The next several days were spent glued to a 14-inch b&w television. I remember hearing that school children in other places – Texas? – cheered when his death was announced, but I could not believe that at 8 years old. It always seemed to be an urban myth just like the one about people spitting on soldiers returning home from Vietnam, men who were only slightly older than I was. Now, they would have spit on General Westmoreland, but that is a different matter. I have heard snickers from my Maddow-loving PMC peeps about the shooters missing Trump and how that is a bad thing. TDS apparently causes psychosis in addition to derangement. It must be terminal. And I now believe people cheered JFK’s death.

        1. LifelongLib

          I don’t know about cheering, but my grandma said that where she worked there were some people who when they heard of JFK’s death were ok with it. This was in the U.S. Pacific Northwest so it wasn’t just a regional thing.

        2. hk

          As far as I know, people spitting at soldiers was not myth–more than one VN vet I know were livid at hearing that as they were themselves spat on, they said, and given their reaction, I have no doubt that is true.

          The myth part, I’ve deduced, is that soldiers returning home from VN were spat on, whoch could not happen B/C they were on military transports (or airliners leased by the military) that flew into airbases. But that soldiers in uniform were spat on (especially at airports as they needed to be in uniform to qualify for discounts) seems to be very much true and the untrue variant (that soldiers returning home from VN were spat on) was erroneously believed to apply to all soldiers traveling in uniform.

    3. fjallstrom

      I have been pondering it in terms of what political violence is acceptable to the bipartisan consensus.

      Firearms in subways to uphold turnstile payment? Ok, according to bipartisan consensus.

      Murdering foreigners? Ok, according to bipartisan consensus.

      Genociding whole populations? Applauded by bipartisan consensus.

      Murdering citizens by US drone or by proxy? Ok as long as they are abroad, according to bipartisan consensus.

      Murdering US presidential candidates? This is where some draw the line.

      In a political system based on increasing amounts of violence, not only has “it [including torture, murder, genocide] is legal if the president does it” been established as precedent, the violence is escalating in the political system itself. Not a direct causation, but I suspect it is hard to keep peaceful transfer of power of the presidency at home, when the same seat wields imperial power that is drenched in the blood of the innocent.

  4. lyman alpha blob

    RE: Trump decries rhetoric

    Here’s another thing that’s not true –

    “The 58-year-old suspect appears to be, as one would expect, a nut whose politics are all over the place.”

    Seems to me, and it seemed to Taibbi and Kirn last night, that Routh’s politics were quite similar to those of Rachel Maddow and any number of other TDS impaired corporate talking heads.

    Hupke’s sound the same. So how many nuts involved here?

    1. The Rev Kev

      I have the impression that he went after Trump because Trump was saying that he as going to end the war in the Ukraine meaning that the Ukraine would not “win.” Yet more blowback from Project Ukraine. But the media seems to be tip-toeing around that one.

    2. Screwball

      NW Ohio, small town, rag paper. Below the front page fold the headline was “Accused assassin was MAGA.” Story went to page 3 which makes sense because the entire article was a lost trip void of facts presented as proof. People read headlines.

      I don’t know if I’ve ever been bombarded with so much BS in my almost 70 years on this planet.

      1. Screwball

        Adding more on what’s true and what isn’t. I just checked my FB page and I see some local professors, some lawyers, a cop, and other PMC class people are saying this was all setup by Trump because he wants the attention because he’s losing.

        We are so screwed.

  5. t

    Thank you for the random attack on Penzeys. I will not defend my deep and everlasting hatred of their stupid company and their stupid spice blends like Taco Tuesday Tika and “we stole this grody cinnamon from the dumpster behind Starbucks and put an old-timey seal on the bottle!”

    They are stupid. I hate them.

    1. hk

      Not random. That Harris specifically chose their store as the locale for a campaign event recently drew attention of the Watercooler a few days (or a week or so?) ago, with the general view that they very much seem to wear their politics on their sleeves.

      1. Pat

        They don’t just wear it on their sleeve they advertise it weekly. I’m on their mailing list. Unlike T, I actually like some of their spice blends, particularly their salt free ones. As their brick and mortar storefronts are in very PMC rich environments they have not had to adjust to the neighborhood, which has not bee a good thing.

  6. Jane

    The story of Ryan Routh is a cautionary tale.“The 58-year-old suspect appears to be, as one would expect, a nut whose politics are all over the place.”

    Arrested with an explosive device, after a standoff in his home. That’s a federal crime.

    Routh has a long history of breaking traffic laws, not paying his taxes on time and writing bad checks. But it was in 2002 that he lost his right to own a gun when he pleaded guilty to a felony in North Carolina for possessing an unregistered fully automatic machine gun.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/us/what-we-know-about-reported-suspect-behind-apparent-trump-assassination-attempt-2024-09-16/

    Never did any time. Logical conclusion, he’s a Fed informant, cutout, tool, had friends in high Democratic places.
    Why would one think that?

    The New York Times reported it had interviewed Routh in 2023 for an article about Americans who were volunteering to help the Ukraine war effort.

    Free to fly, from Hawaii without secondary inspection for terrorists, unlike ex House member and veteran Tulsi Gabbard.

    Routh photgraphed with chef Andrés. In 2015, Andrés was appointed by President Barack Obama as an ambassador for citizenship and naturalization.
    In 2022, Andrés was appointed by President Joe Biden as Co-Chair of the President’s Council on Sports, Fitness, & Nutrition.
    Andrés sued Trump.

    Routh photographed with Zelinsky, recruits soldiers of fortune for Ukraine.

    Routh tries to assasinate Trump, getting there 12 hours ahead of time for a last minute decision to play golf.

    Therefore, Routh had inside information.

    1. Useless Eater

      “getting there 12 hours ahead of time for a last minute decision to play golf”

      Just playing a little devil’s advocate here, but if it was a last minute decision, and he’d been there 12 hours (assuming that is true as reported) then he may not have had inside info. I hear Trump is a frequent golfer, so perhaps Routh, knowing Trump was in town in Palm Beach, was prepared to wait there as long as it took. And it just turned out to be 12 hours, but he would have willingly waited 24, 48, or even 72.

  7. Jason Boxman

    On Boeing, a post linked to a few days ago showed that from the financials the previous CEO borrowed to gamble big in the markets in 2020 or somewhere, not disclosed in the financials, and that’s part of the cash crunch now, is debt servicing for this financialization play. What they haven’t been doing for ages is investing in plant and equipment.

    What a scam.

  8. Carolinian

    Thanx for the Mike and the gun dealer clip. And thanx to Vince Gilligan. Great movies and shows are about great writing and acting. Directors are overrated.

    1. vao

      One tip: you may be able to download YouTube videos hidden behind a login request with some of the online YouTube-video-downloaders — though even when they work, they are often annoying.

      I managed to download the video with y2mate.com (after managing to dodge the ad page) and catchvideo.net (no ad, but only low resolution). Of course, you only get to see the video, not the associated comments. As stated above, it does not always work; thus, savefrom.net failed to access the video.

    2. Lambert Strether Post author

      > Thanx for the Mike and the gun dealer clip

      From the comments on the YouTube clip that is now locked away, the scene also handles all the technical aspects of weaponry quite well.

      Though it is a little chilling to imagine an arms dealer who makes his money from “repeat business.”

      1. Einstein

        Arms dealer who makes money from return business = cop/informant

        That show had more wrong than it did right about “criminals” and “science”. It’s entertainment

  9. Carla

    Years ago, I sprinkled a wild-flower seed mix in my front flower bed in NE Ohio. I had blue-eyed grass here and there for decades thereafter, though I don’t recall seeing any this season.

    1. Lee

      On December 3, 1969, [Black Panther, David] Hilliard was arrested for threatening to kill President Richard Nixon.[12] This threat was announced in Hilliard’s speech given on November 15, 1969, at Golden Gate Park. In his speech Hilliard was quoted saying “We will kill Richard Nixon.”[5] In July 1971, Hilliard was sentenced to one to ten years and incarcerated at Vacaville Prison.[2] In January 1973, while serving a sentence of six months to 10 years, he was denied parole.[13] Wikipedia

      Has the law changed? There was plenty of rage around back then too.

  10. upstater

    PSR has resulted in freight trains typically 2-3 miles in length and have been involved in disasters like East Palestine. But this was a well known fact long before; the NAS report below was chatered in 2021:

    The National Academies of Sciences Report shows link between manifest train length and derailments caused by train makeup and handling issues Trains magazine

    Long manifest trains are more likely to derail than their shorter counterparts due to excessive in-train forces – and the number of wrecks related to train makeup and handling issues has increased sharply since U.S. railroads adopted Precision Scheduled Railroading operating models that rely on ever-longer trains, according to a National Academies of Sciences report.

    The 105-page report on the impacts of freight trains longer than 7,500 feet recommends several steps that the Federal Railroad Administration should take to ensure that railroads are fully mitigating the risks associated with the operation of long manifest trains.

    Congress ordered the report as part of the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law in 2021. It specifically asked the National Academies to examine the impact of long trains on safety, grade crossings, Amtrak service, and greenhouse gas emissions.

    “The committee asked the Class I railroads, through the Association of American Railroads (AAR), to provide data on their train operations with sufficient detail to ascertain train type and length for the purpose of more granular assessments of the derailment records,” the report says. “However, restrictive conditions on the data’s availability and use, including a high degree of data aggregation and preapproval of the analytic methods to be used, foreclosed this option.

    Doesn’t the last statement from NAS say it all about the class 1 railroads? They restricted data access, denied NAS raw data and aggregated it themselves and limited analytical methods NAS could use. Why did the class 1s do this? BECAUSE THEY KNOW! The intent is clearly obfuscate and insure that public safety policy makers have insufficient information for decision support.

    Having been a quality/reliability statistician for 35 years, I know there is no substitute for raw data. The class 1s limiting data and pre-crunching it amounts to lying.

    1. Screwball

      Good stuff.

      I think we have talked before about the railroads, and I know it was a hot topic here when the East Palestine disaster (Lambert was on the PSR thing like hair on a gorilla) happened back in Feb of 23. That statement sounds like the equivalent of FOMC word salad.

      They have learned nothing, and don’t want to, as you say. As a retired engineer (not train) I can’t, for the life of me, understand why they can’t grasp the fact the longer the train is, the more unstable it will be. Especially considering loading conditions. This shouldn’t be difficult.

      They don’t care about us. East Palestine is still a mess best I can tell, and I’m only a few hours away. Too bad our Transportation Secretary isn’t as talented in making the trains run safely and on time than he is putting on a photo op and sounding like a wind up toy on TV.

      1. Lambert Strether Post author

        > Lambert was on the PSR thing like hair on a gorilla

        I knew of PSR (being a railfan), but alert reader Upstater really clued me in to the importance and the implications.

  11. MichaelSF

    However, there’s a whole discourse built up around the question of whether killing Hitler would have been justified or not, and many say that it would have been.

    It is interesting how that thought experiment never uses the names “Curtis Lemay, Henry Kissinger, Dick Cheney, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Victoria Nuland, Joe Biden, (enter favorite war criminal here) . . .”

  12. William Williams

    Here’s something about blue-eyed grass. It’s in my yard in Tennessee where the soil is the absolute worst (by a paved road, and where a plumbing trench was dug bringing up clay soil). I’ve also seen it in abundance in open fields at Red Clay State Park (a historic site where the Cherokee learned they would soon be forced to leave their homelands of 1000 generations).
    https://www.thespruce.com/blue-eyed-grass-plant-profile-5070471

  13. Ranger Rick

    Do we have reliable numbers on how many people are estimated to have had asymptomatic COVID-19? Because it is likely going to match the proportion of people who do not expect to have it in the future. They not only have, but have had it multiple times, and never noticed.

    1. Lee

      Evidently, it appears that perhaps a portion of the population has genetically determined resistance to Covid-19.

      Genetic variant associated with absence of COVID-19 symptoms NIH Research Matters

      At least 20% of people infected with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, never showed symptoms. These asymptomatic infections could provide clues to how the virus can be quickly cleared from the body. Genetic factors may be involved. However, most studies of genetics and COVID-19 outcomes to date have focused on severe disease.

      It would be nice to know who’s whom.

      1. JM

        Being asymptomatic doesn’t necessarily mean they “resisted” the virus, just that the didn’t have symptoms during the acute phase. Maybe they are actually, but that it seems they had positive tests it makes me think that there is a very real possibility that they can still suffer the long term effects of an infection. Hopefully there will be follow up over the next couple of years to give a fuller picture. Maybe there’s more in the full study paper, but I haven’t read it.

        The 50% thinking they’ll never get COVID again is really puzzling to me, and I’d really love to know how they came to that conclusion.

        1. Lee

          Another example to consider might be polio. It’s my understanding that, depending on the strain, it causes disease in only one to three percent of those infected. I assume that would mean that the virus is present for a time harmlessly in a person with resistance and then eliminated from the body and in that time can be passed on to others who may or may not be vulnerable. Please correct me if I’m mistaken.

  14. Brian Beijer

    “A life long pet resistant human who had allergies now has a kitten in his home. Wish me well.”

    I was never a ” pet resistant human” as a child, but I certainly had allergies. I was allergic to milk, eggs, shellfish, dogs, cats, chocolate, tomatoes, pollen, grass, etc. My mom, in the ’70s, first gave me a dog when I was three years old. Then, she introduced me to milk, tomatoes and chocolate. She encouraged me to ride my bike outside with my friends until dark. Thereby exposing to pollen throughout the seasons. My mom gave me a cat when I was eight years old. He lived until he was 22 years old, and I slept with him every night until I left home.

    Throughout my upbringing, my mom taught me that “what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger”. We even watched “Steel Magnolias” together my freshman year in college, and it was the first time I saw my mother cry.
    Nietzsche may have been an ass, but he certainly knew how to raise a child with allergies.

    1. Amfortas the Hippie

      theres also a bit of statistical correlation between c-section babies and bad allergies.
      learned this with our youngest.
      i hypothesise that it has to do with the …erm…secretions one passes through while being born in the usual way.
      i also suspise that such secretions could be harvested and cultured before the c-section in order to sort of inoculate the c-section kid.

    2. Lee

      I had a friend who was mildly allergic to cats who became suddenly and acutely so at about age 40. She discovered this upon an indoor exposure, usually not a major problem, that had her turning blue and put her in hospital.

  15. Patrick Morrison

    stochastic: “randomly determined; having a random probability distribution or pattern that may be analyzed statistically but may not be predicted precisely.” (Oxford online dictionary)

    ‘ambient’: ‘relating to the immediate surroundings of something.’

    I know the definitions don’t quite line up, but would ‘ambient terrorism’ be an acceptable substitute for ‘stochastic terrorism?’ For me, it’s a slightly more common word that conveys the notion that there’s something in the air. Open to revision here.

    1. Pat

      I developed a cat allergy around forty. One of the few times in my life that I used my employer based insurance more than my premiums would have covered, was the two year process of fighting unfamiliar respiratory distress including my doctor forcing two rounds of albuterol treatment once, and searching for the reason. Along with the weekly allergy shots as rehoming Stewart was never a consideration.
      I was floored. The allergist told me that although it was always a probability he was seeing much more adult/late in life development of allergies. That was over a decade ago.

      1. Screwball

        I was part of Six Sigma thing once. It would be Office Space II.

        One of the many corporate training classes that provide worth if anyone would listen, but they don’t. Nothing changes the cesspool of corporate worms slithering their way to the top.

        I’m retired now, but spent almost 30 years with 3 large multinationals that everyone who is reading this has heard of – and I’m still amazed they can make anything.

  16. The Rev Kev

    ‘ “The New York Times: ‘The shock from the shooting in Butler [Pa.] wore off relatively quickly as attention turned to other developments.’

    It didn’t wear off but has been deliberately suppressed and memory-holed by the main stream media. Within hours of the first shooting the memo went out to downplay it and dismiss the assassination attempt as Trump falling down and how only popping sounds were heard at that rally in spite of the dead and wounded in his audience. There is now only 7 weeks until the election so are they going to try to memory-hole this second assassination attempt as well? The whole blatant Ukraine aspect of this guy is really going to be awkward to dismiss as this guy was a true-believer and he had a lot of official cover and was probably – as Lambert points out – spook adjacent.

  17. The Rev Kev

    “A Brief History of American Eugenics”

    There is an earlier echo of this idea in the 18th century British but their obsession was with the criminal class aka the poor. Legislation of new death penalties for scores of crimes had no effect so they thought of transportation of criminals to first North America and then the Australian colonies. By this means,the people in Britain would be steadily improved as the criminal class was shipped to the far ends of the world where they would be free to sink into their lusts and criminality. Much to their disbelief the Australian colonies quickly gave rise to one of the most law-abiding people in their empire which they could not understand. It wasn’t suppose to work that way. Why weren’t they destroying each other? As time passed frustration was visible when some horse-thief sent to the colonies would end up a wealthy land owner which was not why he was sent there. You wonder what would have happened if sterilization was an option in the 18th century.

  18. ChrisPacific

    “An ongoing strike by 33,000 Boeing machinists took a potentially dangerous turn as a security guard displayed a gun following an altercation with workers walking a picket line on Monday outside the airplane manufacturer’s main hub in Seattle…. Boeing called the incident ‘unacceptable’ and said that the contract security guard involved would not be returning to the company.”

    Very dangerous behavior from the security guy there. One of those striking workers might have stolen the gun and used it to commit suicide.

  19. kareninca

    I have a neighbor who is a 61 y.o. survivor (so far) of a pretty nasty form of breast cancer. She has told me over and over how careful she is about covid. I was just at the local credit union and there she was, going in without a mask. This is an area where mask wearing is not frowned upon; there is no social pressure to not mask. If I had a nickel for every time we’ve agreed together about how we don’t want to catch covid, I’d be rich. I just don’t get it. She has the usual education of someone here in Silicon Valley. I guess she’s one of the 49 percent. She believes that she has not ever had covid, so maybe something else has wrecked her brain.

  20. divadab

    Re: Unexpected Summer surge in COVID in the South

    Air conditioning and staying indoors in the summer means less sun exposure and lower Vitamin D levels. No surge in northern States – because people spend more time outdoors and photo-synthesize plenty of Vit D. My hypothesis.

    AN hour or two of sun exposure per day, keeps the COVID away, apparently. My late father-in-law had a little alcove on his deck where he would sunbathe naked – his idea was every part of your body should get sun exposure. Lived to age 94 and only died because he fell out of a tree he was pruning. Worked as a toolmaker and machinist all his life so not exactly a healthy work environment.

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