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2:00PM Water Cooler 9/18/2024

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Bird Song of the Day

Gray Catbird, Indian Springs WMA, two-track road, Washington, Maryland, United States. “Adult male Gray Catbird singing from Black Locust at 14 meters at 0541. He was just sitting there singing.”

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In Case You Might Miss…

  1. Longshoremen to strike in two weeks (plus Boeing).
  2. Sean “Diddy” Combs jailed in seamy Epstein-like music industry scandal.
  3. Morning Consult: Kamala leads by 6%.

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Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

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Trump Assassination Attempts (Plural)

“Trump, Outrage and the Modern Era of Political Violence” [Peter Baker, New York Times]. The deck: “The latest apparent assassination attempt against the former president indicates how much the American political landscape has been shaped by anger stirred by him and against him.” More: “But it is a measure of how much political violence has become a part of modern American culture — not accepted, perhaps, but more and more expected — that the latest incident may make no more difference than the first. The shock from the shooting in Butler wore off relatively quickly as attention turned to other developments. The shock from this one may not last any longer.” • Lots of “both sides” here. But so far, the only attempted assassinations have been of Trump. So, if you accept the theory of stochastic terrorism, and you accept that “both sides do it,” then one side’s messaging is far more effective than the other. Oh, and Baker writes, of unnamed wannabe assassin Routh: “Days later, authorities said, a man who described himself online as a disaffected former Trump supporter made his way with a semiautomatic rifle to the former president’s Florida golf course, evidently looking to take a shot.” As I show here, Routh not only mentioned assassinating Trump in his book, he accepted the Democrat “our democracy” talking point, he was also a Democrat donor, and a passionate supporter of Ukraine (interviewed by many including the Times). Baker’s description is disingenuous at best.

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2024

Less than sixty days to go!

Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:

A few polls post-debate, but as of this reading little change. To be fair, it might take some time for sentiment to settle; and the winning margins may at this point be so minute as to be undetectable. Still, the Democrats must be very puzzled to have virtual unanimity across the political spectrum that “Harris is the one” — it was a tidal wave, after the debate — and yet the election is a virtual tie. How can this be? Perhaps a few more Republicans, generals, or celebrities will turn the tide.

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“Harris soars to record 6-point lead over Trump in post-debate poll” [Axios]. “Vice President Kamala Harris leapt to a six-point lead over former President Trump in the wake of last week’s presidential debate, according to a Morning Consult poll published Tuesday. Most polls before last Tuesday’s debate that saw Harris rattle Trump on a range of topics had the pair locked in a virtual dead heat. ‘A majority of likely voters — including 1 in 5 Republicans — believe Harris won the debate, and performance appears to be crystalizing her national lead over the former president,’ said Eli Yokley, political analyst at Morning Consult, in an emailed statement. Morning Consult pollsters surveyed 11,022 likely U.S. voters from Sept. 13-15 in the poll, which had an unweighted margin of error of +/-1 percentage point. Morning Consult notes that its survey showing support for Harris at 51% compared to 45% for Trump was a “new record” for the Democratic presidential nominee. ‘Her 51% of support among likely voters, which is also at a record high, is driven largely by her best figures to date among Democrats, Biden 2020 voters, liberals, women, 18- to 34-year-olds and millennials,’ it said. Morning Consult’s voter criteria includes any registered voters who say they’re highly likely to vote in the November election.”

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Kamala (D): “Harris refuses to veer off script in her second high-profile interview” [Politico]. “Harris’ sit-down took place in front of a live audience, which included NABJ members as well as local students of historically Black colleges and universities. At several points throughout the event, members of the small crowd quietly took photos and videos of her answers. In part, Harris’ unwillingness on Tuesday to break from Biden’s approach underscores the challenges of running for office as the sitting vice president. While she has stressed on the campaign trail and in her debate against Trump that she is not Biden, disagreeing with him publicly is still a delicate matter. Not only are there personal relationships at play, but breaking with the president in public could undermine his negotiating power on the international stage.” On reparations: “On whether she would take executive action to create a commission to study reparations or if that was better handled by Congress, Harris said the latter.” On abortion: “Harris, who has repeatedly said that she would sign a bill to codify Roe v. Wade, was also asked whether she supports the restrictions that were outlined in the court decision. Roe v. Wade, which the Supreme Court overturned in 2022, is best known for protecting abortion rights. But it also stipulated limitations, permitting states to regulate the procedure in the pregnant person’s third trimester. In fact, the landmark Supreme Court case allowed states to ban abortion in the final trimester, as long as the law provided exceptions for the life of the mother. Abortion rights advocates do not support the restrictions in Roe, arguing that the government shouldn’t have any role in regulating abortion. But many voters prefer some but not unlimited abortion access.”

Kamala (D): “Because I’m Black” (identity #2, and not Indian (#1) or Woman of Color (#3, and I had thought the current idenity):

It’s tiresome, keeping track. I don’t know how she does it!

Kamala (D): “Progressives hope Harris’ border shift is temporary” [Axios]. • Lol no.

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GA: “AJC poll finds Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are locked in a tight race in Georgia” [Atlanta Journal-Constitution]. “The Republican drew 47% support in the poll while Harris was at 44% — within the poll’s margin of error of 3.1 percentage points. About 7% of voters said they were undecided. Libertarian Chase Oliver and other third-party candidates polled below 1%.”

NV: “Economic worries boost Trump’s Hispanic support in battleground Nevada” [CNN]. • Interviews with small business owners.

PA: “Harris leads Trump in Pennsylvania — and two bellwether PA counties — exclusive poll finds” [USA Today]. “Along with Harris’ statewide edge over Trump, she leads in Erie and Northampton counties – two bellwether counties that have historically predicted who carries the state – separate USA TODAY/Suffolk University polls of both found…. Harris leads in Northampton County, which includes the cities of Easton and Bethlehem in East Pennsylvania, 50%-45% over Trump. Biden carried Northampton 50%-49% in the 2020 election. Trump carried Northampton 50%-46% over Clinton in 2016. In Northwest Pennsylvania, Harris leads Trump 48%-44% in Erie County, where Biden in 2020 won 50%-49% and Trump in 2016 won 49%-47%. Three hundred likely voters were surveyed in both county polls, which have margins of error of 5.7 percentage points. Helping drive Harris’ advantage in Northampton – which boasts a Latino population that is 13% of the county’s population – is the vice president’s 60%-25% lead among Latino voters in the county. Yet the common denominator in both counties and Pennsylvania as a whole is Harris’ dominance with female voters.”

Clinton Legacy

Yikes:

Realignment and Legitimacy

“Sachs & Mearsheimer: There Is Basically One Deep State Party Of Cheney, Harris, And Biden, Embodied By Victoria Nuland” (transcript) [RealClearPolitics].

JOHN MEARSHIEMER: No, I like to refer to the Republicans and Democrats and tweedle-dee and tweedle-dum.

There’s hardly any difference. I actually think the one exception is former President Trump. When he became president in 2017, he was bent on “beating back the deep state,” and becoming a different kind of leader on the foreign policy front. But he basically failed. And he has vowed that if he is elected this time, it will be different and he will beat back the deep state. He will pursue a foreign policy that is fundamentally different than Republicans and Democrats have pursued up until now.

The big question on the table is whether or not you think Trump can beat the deep state and these two established parties, and I bet against Trump.

MEARSHEIMER: When we talk about the ‘Deep State,’ we’re really talking about the Administrative State. It is very important to understand that starting in the late 19th and early 20th century, given developments in the American economy, it was imperative that we develop — and this is true of all Western countries — a very powerful central state that could ‘run the country.’ And over time, that state has grown in power.

Since World War Two, the United States has been involved in every nook and cranny of the world, fighting wars here, there, and everywhere. And to do that, you need a very powerful administrative state that can help manage that foreign policy. But in the process, what happens is you get all of these high-level, middle-level, and low-level bureaucrats who become established in positions in the Pentagon, the State Department, and the intelligence community — you name it. And they end up having a vested interest in pursuing a particular foreign policy.

That particular foreign policy that they like to pursue is the one the Democrats and the Republicans are pushing. That’s why we talk about tweedle-dee and tweedle-dum with regard to the two parties. You could throw in the deep state as being on the same page as those other two institutions.

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

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Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

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Airborne Transmission: Covid

“Airborne Transmission of SARS-CoV-2: The Contrast between Indoors and Outdoors” [Fluids]. We linked to this here and here when it came out in March, but with the move indoors to school, it’s worth posting again. From the Discussion: “In the analysis above, we have explored the main differences that exist between indoor and outdoor environments with respect to the transmission of COVID-19. From this, a consistent picture emerges, which, although complex, helps to explain why the disease mainly spreads indoors. While much remains unknown about the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, our analysis clearly shows that profound differences exist in the fluid dynamic behaviour of the two environments, which likely explains why the vast majority of COVID-19 infections occur within buildings and other confined spaces rather than outdoors…. Two issues in particular, the interaction between thermal plumes and ceilings and the entrainment of room air into exhalation plumes, appear to have been largely overlooked in the literature. Both are not a problem outdoors. Yet indoors, they present a major challenge because rooms are by definition confined and generally have ceilings. This means that indoors: (i) boluses of respiratory aerosols (high-concentration clouds) will tend to form at the ceiling and travel horizontally before descending through the breathing zone of the room occupants; and (ii) as the concentration of respiratory aerosols builds up in the room space, so the near-field exposure risk associated with exhalation plumes will tend to increase. Both these phenomena mean that the risk of transmission is much greater indoors compared with outdoors. They also highlight the inadequacy of the simplistic ‘near-field’–‘far-field’ analysis framework. In reality, in most indoor environments, the near-field and far-field exposure risks are inextricably linked—something that is not the case outdoors. Because exhalation plumes entrain air from the surrounding room space, a feedback loop exists between the far-field and near-field.”

“Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a university classroom based on real human close contact behaviors” [Science of The Total Environment]. From China. From the Abstract: “The risk of infection of susceptible students per 45-min lesson was 1%… When all students are wearing N95 respirators, the infection risk could be reduced by 96%… In a classroom with an occupancy rate of 50 %, after optimized arrangement of student distribution, the infection risk could be decreased by 62 %.” • I think the optimized arrange is front to back, i.e. “Let’s all sit in a circle!” is a bad idea.

Maskstravaganza

“Yes, we do need to bring back masks in medical settings” [Toronto Star]. “Many of my most vulnerable patients are keenly aware of the potential health risks this presents. Yet most say nothing and would never dream of asking their clinician to wear a mask. There are sound reasons for this.

The first has to do with long wait times. A visit to the specialist is a precious commodity that cannot be risked. Several months pass before patients are seen, raising the urgency for care. This is only the first of many factors to come that can silence even the most assertive of patients.

Many don’t want to appear disrespectful by asking their health-care workers to mask. They fear being labelled ‘difficult’ or ‘demanding’ and become distressed at the prospect of questioning their clinician’s judgment, even if it should put them in harm’s way. Patients become more passive when burdened with the anxiety, dread and fatigue that accompanies illness. Deep-seated fears are ignited that further increase the dependency on health-care workers and squelch any remaining likelihood of their requesting that their clinicians mask.” • You do you, except not.

Masking and virus size:

I’m a little confused about whether by “virus” is meant the aerosol particle that bears the virus. But an interesting line of inquiry!

Sequelae: Covid

“New report warns long COVID could be ‘mass disabling event'” [Insurance Business]. “Canada’s chief science adviser has released a report on long COVID, warning that it could have significant long-term impacts on the country’s economy. In the report, Dr. Mona Nemer called COVID-19 the ‘head’ of the pandemic and long COVID its ‘tail,’ citing the debilitating effects of the disease that can linger long after the initial infection. She estimated that 10-20% of people with COVID-19 develop long COVID or post-COVID condition (PCC), with symptoms including high blood pressure, an irregular heartbeat, chronic fatigue, brain fog, muscle pain, and blurred vision. ‘Some patients have not recovered two to three years after the initial infection and it is uncertain whether a proportion may ever fully recover,’ Nemer said in the report, adding that the lack of consensus on a clear definition and diagnostic criteria can make it difficult to lodge claims for social assistance, disability supports, and insurance. There could be wider socio-economic implications too, as analysis of long COVID in other countries, including the United Kingdom and the United States, indicated “significant impacts on the labour market and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), in addition to health costs and demands.'”

Personal Risk Assessment

“People can’t make “risk assessments” without knowing the risks” [The Gauntlet]. “US politicians pushed us all ‘back to normal’, a common refrain from the top was that we ‘had the tools’ to deal with COVID, and that individuals could now make their own decisions about what sorts of risks they were comfortable taking. I’ve written at length about the absurdity of attempting to individualize what is a collective problem. What was once a libertarian, far-right wing idea – disease control should be the territory of individuals, not society at large- was first promoted by Republicans, then mainstreamed by liberals in order to paint Biden’s failed vaccine-only herd-immunity strategy as a success. As we settled into a cycle of endless waves of disease driven by rapidly evolving new variants, our government and public health bodies continued to promote the fantasy that everyone can make their own decisions about whether or not to get infected. Of course, anyone who does make the ‘risk assessment’ that catching COVID is unsafe for them is functionally shut out of society. It’s hardly a choice freely made, as the social and economic punishments for failing to ‘return to normal’ continue to intensify.” Meanwhile: “The current CDC Director, Mandy Cohen, has never tweeted the words “cognitive damage,” “brain damage” or “brain fog.” Neither has former CDC Director Rachelle Walensky.”

Elite Maleficence

UK Covid inquiry going nicely for the droplet dogmatists:

IPC = Infection Prevention and Control. And what a great job they did. I wonder if we will ever have a similar commission in the United States?

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“Part 1: We Don’t Have to Wonder if the Great Barrington Declaration Could Have “Worked”. In the Real World, It Failed” [Science-Based Medicine]. “he Great Barrington Declaration (GBD) was published on October 4th, 2020. It was written under the watchful eye of a pro-tobacco, child-labor advocate, and it claimed we could rid ourselves of the virus by spreading the virus. The GBD claimed we could end the pandemic by April 2021 at the latest, but only if everyone worked in perfect unison…. In the GBD’s vision, the entire country would be informed of their Declaration, and after this, everyone would unite to abruptly and radically shift their entire approach to the pandemic. Citizens would voluntarily and appropriately sort themselves ‘vulnerable’ or ‘not vulnerable’ categories, and everyone would play their assigned role. 230 million or so unvaccinated, ‘not vulnerable’ Americans, most of whom had been diligently trying to avoid the virus thus far, would instantly reverse course and embrace ‘natural infection’. That some of them would get really sick and die would not be a reason for anyone to abandon the project.” • We don’t need to worry about our Journey into a LIbertarian Future anymore. We’re here!

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TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

Lambert here: First time in a long time I’ve seen national trends downward for both positivity and hospitalization. Even if wastewater still looks pretty ugly, that’s very good news. I assume that what’s going on is the end of the Summer Vacation cycle of infection, and there will be a short lull until the beginning of the Back to School cycle. If not, that will be a very good sign.

Wastewater
This week[1] CDC September 9 Last Week[2] CDC (until next week):

Variants [3] CDC September 14 Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC September 7

Hospitalization
★ New York[5] New York State, data September 16: National [6] CDC August 24:

Positivity
National[7] Walgreens September 16: Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic September 7:

Travelers Data
Positivity[9] CDC August 26: Variants[10] CDC August 26:

Deaths
Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11]CDC September 7: Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12]CDC September 9:

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, with hot spots annotated. Keeps spreading. NOTE The date seems to be wrong, but the number of sites has changed so this is new.

[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* very popular. XDV.1 flat.

[4] (ED) Down, but worth noting that Emergency Department use is now on a par with the first wave, in 2020.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Definitely down. NOTE Statewide, there is an uptick. Not in New York City, Long Island, or Mid-Hudson.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). The visualization suppresses what is, in percentage terms, a significant increase.

[7] (Walgreens) Big drop continues!

[8] (Cleveland) Dropping.

[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Down. Those sh*theads at CDC have changed the chart so that it doesn’t even run back to 1/21/23, as it used to, but now starts 1/1/24. There’s also no way to adjust the time range. CDC really doesn’t want you to be able to take a historical view of the pandemic, or compare one surge to another. In an any case, that’s why the shape of the curve has changed.

[10] (Travelers: Variants) What the heck is LB.1?

[11] Deaths low, but positivity up.

[12] Deaths low, ED up.

Stats Watch

Housing: “Housing Starts” [Trading Economics]. “Housing starts in the United States soared by 9.6% from the previous month to an annualized rate of 1.356 million units in August of 2024, firmly above market expectations of 1.31 million units, rebounding from the near 7% plunge in the previous period to record the sharpest increase in nine months.”

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Supply Chain: “With Two Weeks Left and No Talks, Industry Prepares for ILA Strike” [Maritime Executive]. “Today marks two weeks till the likely first day of a crippling strike for containers and Ro-Ro traffic at U.S. East and Gulf Coast ports as the International Longshoremen’s Association has refused to resume negotiations on the master contract. With no signs of government intervention despite urging from shippers, the industry is looking for alternatives while analysts attempt to forecast the impact…. [The ILA] issued a new statement focusing entirely on wages and rehashing old wage increases, or the lack thereof, dating back to the 1990s. Citing inflation and years of low increases, the ILA says ‘spotty yearly increases’ are history. The ILA said it will reject the USMX (United States Maritime Alliance) position on new entry wage, and calls for large increases. The union writes that it has been preparing for over a year and the time is now to take a ‘stand and fight a higher level of wages.’ Without indicating any willingness to resume the negotiations which have been at an impasse since June, the ILA says a strike ‘seems more likely.'”

Supply Chain: “Longshoremen at key US ports threatening to strike over automation and pay” [ABC]. “The International Longshoremen’s Union is demanding significantly higher wages and a total ban on the automation of cranes, gates and container movements that are used in the loading or loading of freight at 36 U.S. ports. Whenever and however the dispute is resolved, it’s likely to affect how freight moves in and out of the United States for years to come. If a strike were resolved within a few weeks, consumers probably wouldn’t notice any major shortages of retail goods. But a strike that persists for more than a month would likely cause a shortage of some consumer products, although most holiday retail goods have already arrived from overseas.”

Supply Chain: “Biden won’t block potential strike at East Coast ports, administration official says” [Reuters]. “U.S. President Joe Biden does not intend to invoke a federal law to prevent a port strike on the East Coast and Gulf of Mexico if dockworkers fail to secure a new labor contract by an Oct. 1 deadline, an administration official said on Tuesday…. ‘We’ve never invoked Taft-Hartley to break a strike and are not considering doing so now,’ the Biden administration official told Reuters.”

Supply Chain: “US beef market debates effect of potential International Longshoremen’s Association strike” [S&P Global]. “‘Letting the ILA [strike] play out would be a disaster politically,’ said a US beef buyer. A transportation specialist said, ‘[there is] no way that the union is going to put the Democrats in such a bad position that would allow them to lose the election.’ According to industry sources, it appears that marine terminal operators and ocean carriers, specifically the Mediterranean Shipping Company, are prepared for the strike to begin. The Mediterranean Shipping Company is seen as a bellwether in the global shipping market, sources said. Following the strike, a motion will be presented by the group to force the ILA to return to work for 45 days. If no resolution is reached within that period, another motion will be filed to extend the working period. In this scenario, an arbitrator will be appointed by the court within the time frame to help develop a resolved contract. Although beef and other meats are not the largest volume cargo received in East Coast ports, it is likely to be the most affected, as refrigerated containers and the generator sets that power them are in short supply, according to industry specialists. Companies with freight in reefers will want freight removed in advance of the strike and all at once, further limiting the supply, said the transportation specialist. Most US beef buyers have not changed their buying habits or shipping plans. So far, beef prices have not changed in response to the possibility of strike.”

Manufacturing: “Boeing announces broad rolling furloughs keyed to Machinists strike” [Seattle Times]. “Boeing on Wednesday said it will institute furloughs for a large number of U.S.-based workers for the duration of the Machinists strike that began last week. Employees will take one week of furlough every four weeks on a rolling basis as long as the strike lasts, President and CEO Kelly Ortberg wrote in a message sent to all Boeing workers. Ortberg said he and his leadership team will take a ‘commensurate pay reduction’ for the duration of the strike. He didn’t specify the pay cut amount. Boeing and the Machinists are meeting Wednesday to continue negotiations after restarting talks Tuesday. The Machinists called Tuesday a frustrating day and said the two sides weren’t close in reaching a deal.” • “Commensurate”? Like zero?

Tech: “23andMe sees independent board directors quit en masse” [TechCrunch]. “23andMe, the personal genomics company, went public in early 2021 via a merger with a blank check company that valued it at $3.5 billion. Then its fortunes began to sink. Fading interest in DNA kits – 23andMe’s main product – was one driver. So was news last year that hackers stole ancestry data on 6.9 million of its users. CEO and co-founder Anne Wojcicki now reportedly wants to take the 18-year-old company private. After her own proposal to buy it was rebuffed by its board in July, she was given time to wangle another deal. But its independent directors announced Tuesday evening they’ve lost faith that another proposal is coming, adding that because of Wojcicki’s ‘concentrated voting power,’ they’re done, effective immediately. The company’s market cap closed the day at $173 million. Losing its glittering board – which included Sequoia Capital’s Roelof Botha and YouTube CEO Neal Mohan, among five others – will likely drive its shares down further. One question is whether a shareholder lawsuit might follow.” • That’s a damned shame. Wojcicki was once married to Sergey Brin.

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Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 57 Greed (previous close: 54 Neutral) [CNN]. One week ago: 39 (Fear). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Sep 18 at 1:46:09 PM ET.

Gallery

Liberty leading the people:

(Sorry about Twitter’s cropping; click the image to see the whole thing.)

Health

What doesn’t kill me makes me stronger, except not:

Class Warfare

“Resurgent Unions Flex Muscle at Boeing, Stellantis and East Coast Ports” [Reuters]. “Across the United States, labor unions are striking, threatening strikes and asserting their clout in ways that haven’t been seen in decades. Major ports on the East Coast, Boeing, and automaker Stellantis are all engaged in current or potential labor actions.” • And hopefully negotiating all their contracts to end on May 1, 2028.

* * *

“Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs jailed by judge after sex trafficking indictment” [Associated Press]. ” Sean “Diddy” Combs headed to jail Tuesday to await trial in a federal sex trafficking case that accuses him of presiding over a sordid empire of sexual crimes protected by blackmail and shocking acts of violence. The music mogul is charged with racketeering conspiracy and sex trafficking. The indictment against him lists allegations that go back to 2008. He’s accused of inducing female victims and male sex workers into drugged-up, sometimes dayslong sexual performances dubbed ‘Freak Offs.’… The Bad Boy Records founder is accused of sexually abusing and using physical force toward women and getting his personal assistants, security and household staff to help him hide it all. Prosecutors say he also tried to bribe and intimidate witnesses and victims to keep them quiet.” • Combs pleaded innocent.

“Diddy trolled by 50 Cent AGAIN over viral ‘1000 baby oil bottles’ claims in rapper’s shock indictment after arrest” [Daily Mail]. • As so often with the Daily Mail, the headline says it all.

“Diddy’s arrest for sex trafficking sends shockwaves through music industry with ‘at least five execs’ at record labels worried” [Daily Mail] • As above. Because (from March)–

“Diddy’s Homes Reportedly Fitted With Hidden Cameras In Every Room” [Blast]. Maybe all the super-rich do this. Why not? More: “The rapper has been accused of fitting his home with multiple hidden cameras and then using the footage to allegedly blackmail party attendees… According to court documents filed by Diddy’s former employee, Rodney’ Lil Rod’ Jones, the rapper purportedly installed multiple hidden cameras in his properties located in Los Angeles and on Star Island. Those cameras supposedly captured alleged disturbing footage of his guests including “celebrities, athletes, politicians, international dignitaries, and music label executives.” • Hoo boy. I wonder if Mossad has these tapes too. Kidding!

“United States of America vs. SEAN COMBS a/k/a “Puff Daddy,” a/k/a “P. Diddy”, a/k/a “PD, a/k/a “Love” (PDF) [United States District Court, Southern District of New York]. The indictment. And from August–

👉🏿 “The Domination Tour” [Maureen Tkacik, Prospect]. The deck: “Four decades of intensifying corporate concentration turned the music industry into a wasteland of institutionalized control and abuse. Are antitrust enforcers ready to reckon with that?” Much detail on the Britney Spears conservatorship, “some of the tawdriest episodes of institutionalized abuse to the uppermost echelons of corporate America.” Tkacik comments:

I didn’t have time to aggregate photos of all Diddy’s “friends.” He had a lot! Among them:

News of the Wired

A “Great Ball Contraption” (apparently a genre big in Japan):

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Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From CF:

CF writes: From the Conservatory Garden in Central Park, NYC. like the Abutilon leaves, which look like maps!”

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About Lambert Strether

Readers, I have had a correspondent characterize my views as realistic cynical. Let me briefly explain them. I believe in universal programs that provide concrete material benefits, especially to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime example, but tuition-free college and a Post Office Bank also fall under this heading. So do a Jobs Guarantee and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can deliver on such programs, because the two are different flavors of neoliberalism (“Because markets”). I don’t much care about the “ism” that delivers the benefits, although whichever one does have to put common humanity first, as opposed to markets. Could be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don’t much care, as long as the benefits are delivered. To me, the key issue — and this is why Medicare for All is always first with me — is the tens of thousands of excess “deaths from despair,” as described by the Case-Deaton study, and other recent studies. That enormous body count makes Medicare for All, at the very least, a moral and strategic imperative. And that level of suffering and organic damage makes the concerns of identity politics — even the worthy fight to help the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton’s wars created — bright shiny objects by comparison. Hence my frustration with the news flow — currently in my view the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the other by out-of-power liberals and their allies in the State and in the press — a news flow that constantly forces me to focus on matters that I regard as of secondary importance to the excess deaths. What kind of political economy is it that halts or even reverses the increases in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I am also very hopeful that the continuing destruction of both party establishments will open the space for voices supporting programs similar to those I have listed; let’s call such voices “the left.” Volatility creates opportunity, especially if the Democrat establishment, which puts markets first and opposes all such programs, isn’t allowed to get back into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I love the tactical level, and secretly love even the horse race, since I’ve been blogging about it daily for fourteen years, but everything I write has this perspective at the back of it.

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78 comments

  1. Screwball

    50 bps cut by the Fed. I guess this great economy the B/H admin and all their worshipers are touting needed 50 bps. Outstanding. Now what?

      1. Screwball

        Watching the market, the cut got some huge bounces on the news, but has now given it all back up and then some, but the day isn’t over. Of course it also looks like the wars are heating up, just in time to send crude higher if things escalate. That would negate the 50bps cut in short order.

    2. NYMutza

      IMHO the Fed screwed up yet again. 50points is excessive and will do more harm than good. QE may be next as the Feb doubles down on ill-advised.

    3. griffen

      The beheaded chicken spoof now seems kinda accurate after all…who knew ? \sarc

      Economy in a “good spot”, per Mr Powell to ease into a cycle of pulling the target rate lower… “…follow the yellow brick road, we’re off to see the Chairman, the wonderful Chairman of Oz..”

    4. Lou Anton

      Kudos to commenter Roger Blakely. He nailed it 6 weeks ago when I said markets would freak if the fed went 50 bps. Markets shrugged their shoulders.

      Good call Roger!

      1. albrt

        Kudos to you for giving Roger credit, but I don’t think the markets are out of the woods until at least Friday. The lack of immediate response has a what-are-you-going-to-do-for-an-encore feeling to it.

        1. Lou Anton

          Seems like all that gets traded outside of mechanical 401k buying anymore is monthly payrolls and Fed meetings. We’ll see though.

    5. ilsm

      Some are claiming Powell over did the Taylor Rule, blame game.
      I do not agree, the FFR was not up to Taylor rule.

      Some apologists also say in the same vein, FFR too high above r star, natural rate.

      But aside from suspect jobs reports, no sign of slow down.

      On quantitative tightening the statement implied the very slow balance sheet sell down might continue, slowly!

      No panic US economy needs .50% less FFR.

      Per Cheshire Cat, so many realities we have.

      1. Mark Gisleson

        Thanks — I tweeted the link. I would have tweeted the image but my inner lawyer was having issues with the fifty little ALAMY watermarks plastered all over the photo which for some reason is unavailable in my area.

        You can make a newsworthy image unavailable for display in some places? I’d ask how that works but I’m afraid someone would tell me and I’d become even more depressed. Somehow this f@©sism is going to end with my doing time for possessing a digital copy of the Mona Lisa, just wait and see. God forbid Lambert ever finds out that I’ve got some of his best lines screenshotted and stashed in my political humor folder : }

          1. Revenant

            I like the antidote but in the spirit of these paranoid Mossad and Crowdstrike times, does it have a virus? Specifically the tobacco mosaic virus or something similar? I find it hard to believe the variegation is bred in unlike say hydrangeas or laurel. It looks too geometric.

        1. lyman alpha blob

          Yes, oddly, or not, when I did a google image search on “Sean Combs Bill Clinton” guessing that there would be a picture, the third result I got was a picture of Combs and Trump. Imagine that!

      3. DJG, Reality Czar

        Look like he’s moving in for some tongue in that one.

        All right, lyman alpha blob. That goes beyond cruelty. Next, you will comparing the seductiveness of Toria “Cookies for Democracy” Nuland with Helen of Troy (explained by Sappho thus: “when the goddess seduced her wits and left her to wander, she forgot them all, she could not remember anything but longing.” Ahhh, Toria!)

        My interpretation? Hillary, Protector of Democracy, is in some kind of orange jumpsuit, noting too her grip on the bar. Were they doing on-stage demos of BDSM fantasies at the Democratic National Convention?

        And here I thought that the highlight of the DNC was the promise by Harris of endless war by the “premier lethal force.”

        In the end: This crapola could not happen to a nicer group of people, ne.

        1. pjay

          Hillary in an orange jumpsuit is one of my most heartfelt fantasies. And I guarantee you it has nothing whatsoever to do with seduction.

    2. Screwball

      What’s the chances this trial will be exactly like Maxwell’s? Closed court, no names, protect the guilty at all costs. I’m sure there are some quite busy figuring out damage control.

      Good thing the USA is a nation of laws and transparency. /s

      2. Stephen V

        Oh you mean Ghislane! I thought Maxwell Pėre who received his sentence, um I mean accident, before trial.

    3. CA

      About Haiti, among the many development problems for this poorest of all countries in the hemisphere, there was the Haitian trade agreement that President Clinton pushed. Clinton wanted to assist Arkansas rice growers and pushed Haiti to import Arkansas rice. The problem which should have been obvious, was that Haiti is a largely rural country with many small rice growers. Large Arkansas rice growers could ship the crop to Haiti and sell rice for far less than Haitian famers. Haitian small farmers were severely harmed, as a result.

      The problem was so severe that Clinton was later to formally apologize for the rice policy:

      https://www.democracynow.org/2010/4/1/clinton_rice

      April 1, 2010

      “We Made a Devil’s Bargain”: Former President Clinton Apologizes for Trade Policies that Destroyed Haitian Rice Farming

      President Bill Clinton, now the UN Special Envoy to Haiti, publicly apologized last month for forcing Haiti to drop tariffs on imported, subsidized US rice during his time in office. The policy wiped out Haitian rice farming and seriously damaged Haiti’s ability to be self-sufficient…

  3. Carolinian

    Patrick Lawrence

    Slowly and very surely, it becomes clear by way of these weekly turns how a new Democratic regime, should Harris win on Nov. 5, proposes to manage the imperium’s business. And however many foolish voters may be illusioned otherwise, if Harris takes the White House her business will be neither more nor less than managing the imperium—the wars, the provocations, the illegal sanctions and other collective punishments, the terrorist clients in Israel, the neo–Nazis in Kiev.

    Last Wednesday, Sept. 4, Liz Cheney surprised Washington and, I suppose, most of the rest of us when she announced she would support Harris’s run for the presidency. The onetime Wyoming congresswoman, a coup-cultivating warmonger who remains among the hawkiest of right-wing foreign-policy hawks, was not the first Republican to jump across the aisle this political season, and she was also not the last: Two days later, Liz’s pop did the same. Dick Cheney, of course, needs no introduction.

    Instantly, the Harris campaign declared its delight in having the support of these courageous patriots, as the organization called them in its official statements.

    https://scheerpost.com/2024/09/18/patrick-lawrence-the-war-party-makes-its-plans/

    Meanwhile the NY Post claims that the David Muir nightly news ratings dropped 12 percent post debate. Personally I find it hard to believe that the country will elect the empty headed Harris. True they elected the empty headed Dubya, but then they didn’t really did they? Back then “the refs” were on he side of the Repubs and now the fickle media openly push the Dems. But that fat thumb on the scales is getting fatter all the time. Any tactic seems on the table. One hopes the Trump people don’t use pagers.

  4. Corky

    More devices detonating in Lebanon? Now more than ever I have this beacon of sanity called Naked Capitalism to turn to for info. I’m sorry I don’t have any money to donate.

  5. Janeway

    Between the pagers yesterday and now the walkie talkies, it is almost certain that Hezbollah as zero tactical Commuinications.

    If I were a betting man, I’d bet Israel will start their war on Lebanon any day now that they can’t communicate except over phone, which is heavily monitored by the five eyes and likely shared with Israel in real time.

  6. bradford

    I enjoyed the discussion about instrument tuning yesterday, and remembered a paper which has taken me until now to locate again. I found it on wikipedia about a decade back in an article on temperament, but either the reference has been removed now or I looked at the wrong wikipedia entry.

    He tries to arrange a tuning with “pleasant-sounding” beats between various intervals, and an interesting innovation is that he doesn’t insist that the octaves are exactly a factor of two apart.

    A current link is https://sites.unipa.it/grim/Quaderno19_Capurso_09_engl.pdf

    It’s in English. If you were following the discussion yesterday, I hope it is of interest.

  8. Tony Wikrent

    Re: Tkacik’s point regarding child abuse networks. Here is an excellent YouTube discussion of “Higher immorality’ of US ruling class: Criminality of capitalist elites” based on the analysis of C. Wright Mills. They discuss former House Speaker Dennis Hastert and suggest pedophilia is almost a requirement to be admitted to the elite at this point.

    10:23
    Dennis hastert was able to become the third most powerful politician in the United States at least in terms of the
    10:29
    succession for the presidency uh not in spite of being a pedophile but like that that was presumably
    10:36
    uh one of his main assets to help him succeed uh in this place because it was
    10:42
    he was such a corrupted individual uh that he was firmly under control of
    10:49
    these very dark forces that are are pretty much personify or uh encapsulate the higher
    10:58
    immorality okay that this is I I can’t think of a better example than this uh
    11:03
    and this story the hastert thing is like it it came and went and it should have
    11:09
    been a huge story that we talked about and it should have led to bigger discussions on
    11:14
    how something like this was possible and then that could have led to uh you know an exploration of the role of sexual
    11:21
    blackmail in our political economy and it never did uh and that’s because it goes against the myths of uh of
    11:29
    American democracy

    .
    The Higher Immorality, excerpts from The Power Elite, by C. Wright Mills     (Oxford Press, 1956)

    The men of the higher circles are not representative men; their high position is not a result of moral virtue; their fabulous success is not firmly connected with meritorious ability. Those who sit in the seats of the high and the mighty are selected and formed by the means of power, the sources of wealth, the mechanics of celebrity, which prevail in their society. They are not men selected and formed by a civil service that is linked with the world of knowledge and sensibility. They are not men shaped by nationally responsible parties that debate openly and clearly the issues this nation now so unintelligently confronts. They are not men held in responsible check by a plurality of voluntary associations which connect debating publics with the pinnacles of decision. Commanders of power unequaled in human history, they have succeeded within the American system of organized irresponsibility.

    1. Amfortas the Hippie

      yeah.
      and that Prospect bit on Britney was a picture of ugly.
      every time a story like this comes out…i feel compelled to tell my own tale:
      this is about local elites, north of houston, circa 1990.
      was in a band, while living in a van, running from the law(bc id helped out the daughter of one of those local elites)…and one of our biggest fans was an old toad that owned a bunch of strip clubs…always had a gaggle of lingerie clad strippers in his limo.
      so we were askd to play his birthday shindig, in his giant greenhouse pool room.
      all the important locals were there…from judges to mayors to sheriff to preachers and school board…and all snorting coke off the pubic mounds of naked painted and feathered girls.
      then, some, wandering off into rooms in the manse….and all the while, professional photographers wandering around, taking shots of everything.
      we had a little pallet and plywood stage in the corner, by a palm tree, and with our own keg>
      and i remember packing up after…at like 4am…and talkin with the band…and all agreed that lips would be zipped…because knowledge of what we’d seen could definitely be dangerous….and indeed, i left the area for good soon after.
      as below, so above.
      thats who our elites are.
      never, ever trust them with anything but a hole in the head.

      1. The Rev Kev

        It’s like they never left their college partying days but only intensified them over the years. Yeah, good decision to keep those lips sealed or else you could have been arrested by one of those sheriffs and gone up before one of those justices.

  9. herman_sampson

    It’s been 17 years since I performed particle size analysis, but the data shown looks to me to just show the largest size is 5 microns. I would like to see a bell shaped curve actually showing the smallest size of the particles of virus. I would like to be corrected if I am mistaken.

    1. ambrit

      Given Rousseau’s style, it looks suspiciously like a Monty Python illustration.
      “The Leg of Liberty encouraging artists to flock to the park.”

    2. JM

      I remember some comments, maybe a year ago when Twitter changed its cropping algorithm, that it had started to cut out the more important things from the preview. Seems it may still be doing so, staying aligned with the zeitgeist I guess.

      1. Carolinian

        And was hugely attacked for doing so. On the other hand I once witnessed Jane being trundled down Peachtree St doing the Tomahawk Chop* after the Braves won the World Series.** If you don’t like her principles she has others.

        Good actress though back in the day.

        *Not that there’s anything wrong with that. I’ve done it myself.

        **Rumor has it she married Ted Turner because of the sex.

  12. flora

    Peter Baker, NYTimes. hahahahaha

    How many NYTimes pieces with headlines like “He is Unfit to Lead” or “He’s a Clear and Present Danger” (to our democracy) have I seen just this year?

    The zeal at the NYTimes is something to behold.

    1. Carolinian

      The Mighty Wurlitzer, when not hanging around bars, see themselves as character cops. They speak truth to naughty.

      They are also obsessed with power and the powerful which makes them authorities on “fit to lead.”

      Of course in the movies it’s always Woodward and Bernstein to the rescue. I had a friend who was highly upset by Absence of Malice with its suggestion of press irresponsibility. Now of course few have a very high opinion of the press other than the press themselves–what’s left of them. The Mighty Echo Chamber.

    2. Ranger Rick

      I’m waiting for the meditations on how “words are violence” applies to political violence. I see op-eds like this one republished in a local paper and do feel a faint hint of hope that there are sane people out there who watch these election shenanigans and wonder where the moderators are.

  13. Chris Cosmos

    Mearshiemer has the administrative state part right. It was and is seen as a requirement for a modern state and I get it but I think there is a better way. However, what he misses is that the main impetus of the growth of that State in the USA at least has been war. For example, would the Palmer Raids have occurred in there had been no WWI? If there had been no WWII would McCarthyism and the military/intelligence industrial complex been a major thing? Every war invites a vested interest interested in continuing war in general. Part of the problem is the dramatic erosion of any sort of morality by the ruling elites, the other part of the problem is the movement away from even the idea that citizens have a responsibility to maintain sanity in government as opposed to allowing the oligarchs (who are in an endless cycle of power–the more money they make the more money they have to bribe Congress then the more money they make and so on) to do as they like. The people can have a strong effect on politics if they would take the trouble.

  14. mrsyk

    My wife and I just got the Novavax. Called yesterday and could have had a same day appointment if desired. A peek in the 10 count box gave the appearance that at least four doses had been administered before us. Had a maybe five minute muscle sting, no other noticeable side effects. I’m happy we were able to get it.

  15. ProNewerDeal

    NC Covid Brain Trust, any advice on Novavax?

    Any link to a “how-to” article on this topic from a trusted expert like 1 of the NC Covid experts or someone like Dr Al-Aly?

    Is it sufficient to get 1 dose of the new 2024-25 Novavax as per CDC guidance?

    Or should I cross state lines, feign being un1nsur3d and pay cash, and get a 2nd Novavax dose 3-8 weeks after the 1st dose?

    I got vaccinated with 1 dose of 2023-24 Novavax in February, and 1 dose of JnJ in 2021.

    1. Yves Smith

      We have REPEATEDLY said we don’t give medical advice.

      Normally we would not have released your comment from moderation. However, it is absolutely insane to take more than recommended doses of a medication per the MANUFACTURER’S guidance.

      1. ProNewerDeal

        Apologies Yves, I did not intend to violate your comments policy.

        Iirc fwiw, several Covid experts/professionals (epidemiologists, physicians, etc) were indeed recommending 2 doses of Novavax 2023-24 last year.

        I won’t bring up this topic further.

        Thanks for your excellent nakedcapitalism website, Yves. Cheers

  16. flora

    As for power elites’ unnatural appetites, search online for images of John Podesta’s art collection images and Tony Podesta’s art collection images. There’s not much left to the imagination.

    1. flora

      adding: there’s a ~9 minute video of The Podesta Art Collection on Odysee. I’m not leaving a link because it takes a strong stomach to watch. I don’t want anyone to click a link by accident.

      1. Amfortas the Hippie

        and people think im weird….
        thats all just creepy as hell.

        while i do dig my various naked statues scattered in the foliage…my most potentially offensive are the two middle finger statues…one still in progress(but maybe ill declare it done, since i left off 6 yrs ago anyway, due to wife’s cancer…all and sundry recognise it as a hand flipping the bird).

        but bound naked boys?
        jeez.

  17. Useless Eater

    It’s mid September and Trump is campaigning on Long Island. What does that tell you? Honest question.

    2. Pat

      Could be that Nassau County is up for grabs. He already has Staten Island and much of upstate NY. He won’t win, but I will be surprised if he doesn’t manage to make it tighter than our neoliberal overlords would like.

  18. Tom Stone

    I wonder how well Kamala Harris behaved when she was allowed to play with the “Cool Kids” at P Diddy’s parties?
    She came out of the SF scene, so Coke and a little Kink might seem normal to her.
    Personally, I would expect there to be video and audio recordings at a party like this along with subtle and unsubtle encouragement to partake of the action.
    I wonder if any of the Lawyers working for T or H have been in touch with Mr Comb’s attorneys…

    1. The Rev Kev

      Maybe that is why they busted Diddy. That perhaps some of his home videos had clips featuring party-girl Kamala and the Democrats wanted to make sure that none of them surfaced before November.

      1. Joe Renter

        I think you are on to something. I follow a Canadian astrologer that said there may be some skeletons being uncovered with Kamala in this very topic. The Astrologer has a pretty good record. I know that is not validated by many. We will see.

    2. Amfortas the Hippie

      i dont care one damned bit if kamala(or any other pol) attended a sex party and got jiggy.
      ive done my share of epic debauchery.
      so long as all are consenting adults, its really none of my business.
      what IS my business, however, is Policy.
      including Foreign Policy…Healthcare Policy…Welfare Policy…and Economic Policy.
      but i hear little about all that that doesnt sound like a bad AI hallucination.

      1. The Rev Kev

        Maybe somebody should ask Kamala a simple question-

        ‘How, as President, will your policies differ from current President (guffaw) Biden?’ Will anything change?

  19. Jeremy Grimm

    Wow! Was today’s bird song a catbird symphony or a catbird oration? This bird song is exceptional for its length and complexity. The sound spectrum presents striking images of the song leaving me wondering whether I am missing something in how I parse the song’s content. I cannot hear the tones in Chinese, and similarly I suspect I cannot hear much of the nuanced content in this birdsong.

    1. The Rev Kev

      Without the US having their back, Israel would have the status of the North Korea of the Middle east. A crazily run country with nukes.

  24. Joe Renter

    So I know astrology is not validated by many, but this Canadian astrologer I follow said two weeks ago when looking at her chart and time frame saw that there well be some skeletons in Kamala’s pass come light and in this very area of nasty bits exposed. We will see.

  25. flora

    Well well. My county’s non-partisan, non-profit League of Women Voters organization had their Facebook account suspended this week for, get this, violating community standards.

    I wonder how many people after the ABC debate openly talked about returning the League of Women Voters as debate moderators. I know I heard and read many comment along those lines. Now the local chapter has its FB page suspended? un be lievable. (Or, very believable.)

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