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Patient readers, I had to make an important call in the midst of my normal Water Cooler writing time, so there is nothing here but bird songs and art (not a bad sort of nothing, actually). More soon! Talk amongst yourselves until then. –lambert
Bird Song of the Day
Gray Catbird, Bramble Hill, Highland, Virginia, United States. “In thick underbrush near the house at the start of the upper trail.”
In Case You Might Miss…
- New RCP election 2024 charts (it’s still tied), and new Covid charts.
- Kamala on Oprah. Wowsers.
- Boeing negotiations stall, as layoffs continue.
Politics
“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
Trump Assassination Attempts (Plural)
“DeSantis: The Feds Are Not Cooperating With Florida’s Investigation Of Second Trump Assassination Attempt” [RealClearPolitics]. “[DESANTIS:] No, they’re not being cooperative. Yes, I am concerned. I mean, for example, we were rebuffed. Our investigators were rebuffed just going to the fence line outside of Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach. And so, I think they’ve taken the position they don’t want the state of Florida to be involved in this. But here’s the thing, there were multiple violations of Florida law across multiple jurisdictions. We think at least three judicial circuits. This guy, Ryan Routh committed potential violations of Florida law. So, we have a duty to investigate this. We have a duty to bring the appropriate charges, and we also have a duty to inform the public about how this happened, so I don’t anticipate there being cooperative. I think that they’ve just taken that position, and I think that that’s unfortunate, because even though I’ve been very clear, state of Florida is going to do an investigation. You know, I’ve not disputed their right to also investigate, it’s the federal government he was in their protective custody as a presidential candidate.”
2024
Less than fifty days to go!
Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:
If there was a debate bounce, it was very small. If I were the Trump campaign, I’d be very worried about Pennsylvania. Maybe a reader from Pennsylvania can clarify. Are we looking at something like a North Philly Democrat/Bucks County Never Trumper Alliance? Once again, the Democrats must be very puzzled to have virtual unanimity across the political spectrum that “Harris is the one” — no doubt there will be another liberalgasm after Oprah — and yet the election is a virtual tie. How can this be? Perhaps a few more Republicans, generals, or celebrities will turn the tide.
“Favorable Ratings of Harris, Trump Remain Under 50%” [Gallup]. “Nearly identical percentages of U.S. adults rate Donald Trump (46%) and Kamala Harris (44%) favorably in Gallup’s latest Sept. 3-15 poll, during which the candidates debated for the first time. Both candidates, however, have higher unfavorable than favorable ratings. Trump’s unfavorable rating is seven percentage points higher than his favorable score, and Harris’ is 10 points higher. Harris’ bump in favorability after her unexpected nomination as the Democratic presidential nominee has moderated somewhat, while Trump’s favorability is up five points since last month, returning to the level he was at in June.”
* * * Kamala (D): Wowsers. Two minutes that seem like two hours. Oprah looks like she’s in pain:
This might be the worst world salad ever in the political career of Kamala Harris.
The whole time you could feel Oprah wanted her to stop.
The audience looks like they’re realizing how gone Kamala is.
Her campaign won’t let her do one of these again.pic.twitter.com/ru9bvo2IEJ
— Paul A. Szypula 🇺🇸 (@Bubblebathgirl) September 20, 2024
(If I weren’t in such a rush I’d get a clip with better provenance, but I’m not seeing signs of cutting, so…. If I find a better version, I’ll replace.) The dreadful sincerity in her voice is reminding me of some voice I’ve before, but I can’t think which. It’s not a good memory.
Kamala (D): Not as loony as the above, but still pretty bad:
NEW: Kamala Harris is asked about her plan to lower the cost of living, says she will do that by lowering the cost of necessities.
Remarkable.
Question: What will you do to lower costs?
Answer: Yeah. I first of all, thank you both for being here and yours is a, a story I hear… pic.twitter.com/UQUNCnvesO
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) September 20, 2024
If the American dream is in such trouble, what were you doing for the last three years?
Kamala (D): “A Decisive but Shallow Debate Win for Harris” [Peggy Noonan]. “The two major headlines: First, Ms. Harris showed what she needed to show, that she is tough enough, bright enough, quick enough….. Second, the incapacity of Mr. Trump. He was famously unable to portray her as outside the mainstream, but the news is he didn’t seem to try. He couldn’t prosecute his case because his sentences collapsed…. But here is an important sub-headline. Ms. Harris won shallowly. I mean not that she won on points, or that it was close—it wasn’t, she creamed him—but that she won while using prepared feints and sallies and pieces of stump speech, not by attempting to be more substantive or revealing. When you address questions in a straightforward way and reveal your thinking, you are showing respect. You’re showing you trust people to give you a fair hearing and make a measured decision. Voters can see it, and they appreciate it. They feel the absence of these things, too, and don’t like it. She was often evasive, and full of clever and not-so-clever dodges. Trump supporters, and not only they, perceived a disparity in how the moderators treated the candidates. So did I. … What should each candidate do now? I asked some Republican veterans, almost all of whom worked on George H.W. Bush’s 1988 campaign, after the debate. One said there is nothing for either camp to do but focus on turnout. ‘I think we are beyond changing minds, and I doubt the ‘debate’ did much to change any minds or significantly reduce the number of undecided. I think both sides are down to the ground game.’ Another agreed, saying that experience and data had taught him the value of reaching out and knocking on doors: ‘The best way to get out the vote is face-to-face contact.’ Another said, ‘‘Let Trump be Trump’ isn’t where the electorate is at, and at this point is kinda self-defeating.’ Mr. Trump should make sure his base maintains its excitement: ‘Do as many Fox and OAN town halls as possible.’ A fourth old hound said the Harris campaign ‘should have a full-court press to get young women to vote, starting with sororities’ in North Carolina and Georgia. He was thinking of Taylor Swift’s endorsement of Ms. Harris and its potential impact. She should also do interviews—a lot.” • Oops. See above. Commentary:
.@davidaxelrod says Kamala Harris needs to do more interviews and town halls "to give people comfort."
“The country is ready to vote against Trump but they want to know that [Kamala Harris] is an acceptable alternative.” https://t.co/XPwy2P3V5D #TAF24 pic.twitter.com/RxECPvntwb
— The Atlantic (@TheAtlantic) September 20, 2024
Kamala (D): “Kamala Harris Says Anyone Who Breaks Into Her House Is ‘Getting Shot'” [HuffPo]. “‘If somebody breaks into my house, they’re getting shot,’ Harris added. ‘Probably should not have said that. But my staff will deal with that later.'” • That’s nice. House staff, or field staff?
Kamala (D): “Can Harris’s Cynical, Run-Out-The Clock Campaign Succeed?” [Victor Davis Hansen, RealClearPolitics]. “Harris has reconstructed her privileged upbringing as a child of two PhDs, living in a posh Montreal neighborhood into a struggling, middle-class Oakland childhood. How can she stage such a complete makeover — and contemptuously count on the voting public to be so easily deceived?” • Hansen is correct. Kamala went to Westmount High School in Montreal. Westmount is not only rich, it’s rich Anglo. I guess that was her idenity before she was Indian?
Kamala (D): We will pry “fighting for” from their cold, dead hands:
.@KamalaHarris has spent her life fighting for people who need a voice and a champion. She’s more than ready to be President – let’s help her get elected. https://t.co/MzJFG9c4HI pic.twitter.com/HgWJkAqXho
— Barack Obama (@BarackObama) September 19, 2024
* * * Kamala (D): “These evangelicals are voting their values — by backing Kamala Harris” [Associated Press]. “a small and diverse coalition of evangelicals is looking to pull their fellow believers away from the former president’s fold, offering not only an alternate candidate to support but an alternate vision for their faith altogether…. When the Rev. Lee Scott publicly endorsed Kamala Harris for president during the Evangelicals for Harris Zoom call on Aug. 14, the Presbyterian pastor and farmer said he was taking a risk…. ‘I am tired of watching meanness, bigotry and recreational cruelty be the worldly witness of our faith,’ Scott said on the call. ‘I want transformation, and transformation is risky business.'” Out of curiosity, is genocide recreational cruelty? Maybe not always, except when you video it? Anyhow: “Grassroots groups like Evangelicals for Harris are hoping they can convince evangelicals who feel similarly to support Harris instead of voting for Trump or sitting out the election altogether. With modest funding in 2020, the group, formerly known as Evangelicals for Biden, targeted evangelical voters in swing states. This election, the Rev. Jim Ball, the organization’s president, said they’re expanding the operation and looking to spend a million dollars on targeted advertisements.” • If they keep changing their name to include the name of the current Democrat Presidential candidate, I wouldn’t call them all that grassroots.
* * * Trump (R): “N.Y. Magazine reporter on leave after alleged relationship with RFK” [Axios]. “New York Magazine Washington correspondent Olivia Nuzzi is on leave after an alleged “romantic” relationship with former independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Oliver Darcy’s Status newsletter reported on Thursday. The magazine said in an online statement that Nuzzi ‘acknowledged’ to editors ‘that she had engaged in a personal relationship with a former subject relevant to the 2024 campaign while she was reporting on the campaign, a violation of the magazine’s standards around conflicts of interest and disclosures.’ A spokesperson for RFK told CNN that Kennedy, who endorsed former President Trump after dropping out of the 2024 race, ‘only met Olivia Nuzzi once in his life for an interview she requested, which yielded a hit piece.'” • Hmm.
* * * MI: “Kamala Harris Refused to Meet with Uncommitted about Gaza — and Uncommitted Refused to Endorse Her” [The Intercept]. “The Uncommitted Movement announced Thursday that it would not endorse Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic candidate for president. ‘Vice President Harris’s unwillingness to shift on unconditional weapons policy or to even make a clear campaign statement in support of upholding existing U.S. and international human rights law has made it impossible for us to endorse her,’ Uncommitted said in a statement released alongside a Thursday morning press conference. The group said at the press conference that the move came after Harris refused to meet with Uncommitted. Uncommitted delegates gave Harris until September 16 to meet with them in the crucial swing state of Michigan. The deadline passed earlier this week.” • But Harris is still leading in Michigan, albeit within the margin of error.
NC: “Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifts North Carolina gubernatorial race toward Democrats amid Robinson controversy|” [The Hill]. “The political forecasting site Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted the North Carolina gubernatorial race Thursday toward Democrats amid an unfolding controversy involving Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, the Republican candidate. ‘Obviously a fluid situation but Robinson was in bad shape before and worse shape now,’ Kyle Kondik, the managing editor of the site, wrote in a post on the social platform X. The site shifted the North Carolina gubernatorial race between Robinson and Democrat Josh Stein, the state’s attorney general, from ‘leans Democrat’ to ‘likely Democrat’ after a bombshell CNN report that detailed offensive comments Robinson allegedly made online. Robinson just before the story was published said he had no intention of stepping out of the race. ‘We are staying in this race. We are in it to win it,’ he said. CNN’s story revealed a wide range of inflammatory comments Robinson reportedly made on a pornography website’s message board more than 10 years ago, including calling himself a ‘black NAZI’ and wishing for slavery to be reinstated. ‘Let me assure you, the things you will see in that story, those are not the words of Mark Robinson,’ the Republican candidate said Thursday in a post on X. ‘You know my words. You know my character, and you know that I have been completely transparent in this race and before.'” • Brilliant oppo (and interestingly, the stories about NC being in play started coming before the oppo. And anytime a politician starts talking about themselves in the third person, that’s a bad sign.
NE: “Winner-take-all push gets help of Gov. Jim Pillen, Sen. Lindsey Graham, Trump” [Nebraska Examiner]. And the deck: “Nebraska Electoral College change would need 33 votes to overcome promised filibuster.” “The national Republican push to help former President Donald Trump win all five of Nebraska’s Electoral College votes is ramping up again, and this time it might work. Nebraska Gov. Jim Pillen on Wednesday hosted two dozen state senators at the Governor’s Mansion, along with Secretary of State Bob Evnen, the state’s chief election official. Several who attended the meeting said some senators who had wavered earlier showed more support now for changing Nebraska to the winner-take-all system of awarding electoral votes this year.” • It would be interesting if the Electoral College were won by one vote, after Nebraska moved to winner-take-all. (If I understand this correctly, this Republican idea went on the back burner when Maine Democrats threatened to neutralize it by going to winner-take-all themselves. But the time for Maine to be able to do that has passed.) Commentary:
If Nebraska Rs switch the state to winner-take-all, and it’s too late for Maine to do the same, the impact could be enormous.
Namely, WI-MI-PA would no longer be enough to get Harris to 270.
She’d need at least one more swing state (NV, GA, AZ, or NC) to get over the line pic.twitter.com/XONmKUgLti
— Andrew Prokop (@awprokop) September 19, 2024
PA: “In PA, Big-Picture Issues Will Matter More than Personality” [Andrew Cuff, RealClearPennsylvania]. Cuff is on the right. “[W]ith Pennsylvania’s polling average showing a neck-and-neck race, policy issues will ultimately tip the scales. Despite the contention that voters now make decisions mainly on ‘vibes,’ the 2024 election will come down to three basic policy differences. First and foremost, poll after poll after poll shows that Pennsylvania voters care about inflation and the economy overall. Despite the Biden-Harris administration’s attempt to build a narrative of economic recovery, Pennsylvanians feel the pinch of everyday costs that have not receded with the official inflation rates…. Second, illegal immigration has emerged as a defining issue in our state… The Biden-Harris policies of flying border-crossers around the country and putting them up in luxury hotels or forcibly resettling thousands of Haitian migrants in small Rust Belt towns have worried even the most liberal Pennsylvanians…. Third, Pennsylvania has the fourth-largest population of veterans and the second-highest number of recipients of the nation’s highest military award, the Medal of Honor. We are a state with a keen interest in foreign policy restraint, as demonstrated by Trump’s victory in the 2016 election.” • This is a strong case, if Trump can make it, and not trip over his own d*ck on the great issue of our times, cats.
Syndemics
“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).
Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!
Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).
Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Stay safe out there!
Elite Maleficence
“What is the UK Covid-19 Inquiry?” [UK Covid-19 Inquiry]. And thanks to alert reader Revenant, here are videos of each day of the hearings.
Lambert here: First time in a long time I’ve seen national trends downward for both positivity and hospitalization. Even if wastewater still looks pretty ugly, that’s very good news. I assume that what’s going on is the end of the Summer Vacation cycle of infection, and there will be a short lull until the beginning of the Back to School cycle. If not, that will be a very good sign.
| Wastewater | |
| ★ This week[1] CDC September 16 | Last Week[2] CDC (until next week): |
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| Variants [3] CDC September 14 | ★ Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC September 14 |
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| Hospitalization | |
| ★ New York[5] New York State, data September 19: | ★ National [6] CDC August 31: |
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| Positivity | |
| National[7] Walgreens September 16: | Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic September 7: |
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| Travelers Data | |
| ★ Positivity[9] CDC September 2: | ★ Variants[10] CDC September 2: |
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| Deaths | |
| ★ Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11]CDC September 14: | ★ Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12]CDC September 14: |
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LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”
NOTES
[1] (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, with hot spots annotated. Keeps spreading. NOTE The date seems to be wrong, but the number of sites has changed so this is new.
[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.
[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* very popular. XDV.1 flat.
[4] (ED) Down, but worth noting that Emergency Department use is now on a par with the first wave, in 2020.
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Definitely down. NOTE Statewide, there is an uptick. Not in New York City, Long Island, or Mid-Hudson.
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). The visualization suppresses what is, in percentage terms, a significant increase.
[7] (Walgreens) Big drop continues!
[8] (Cleveland) Dropping.
[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Down. Those sh*theads at CDC have changed the chart so that it doesn’t even run back to 1/21/23, as it used to, but now starts 1/1/24. There’s also no way to adjust the time range. CDC really doesn’t want you to be able to take a historical view of the pandemic, or compare one surge to another. In an any case, that’s why the shape of the curve has changed.
[10] (Travelers: Variants) What the heck is LB.1?
[11] Deaths low, but positivity up.
[12] Deaths low, ED up.
Stats Watch
There are no official statistics of interest today.
Tech: Inner workings of Google’s public relations shop, a thread:
Woah. Fun. Buried in DOJ adtech antitrust exhibits posted overnight is a highly sensitive summary of Google's monitoring and spinning of the DOJ's search antitrust complaint in 2020 – yes, the landmark case the US DOJ just won. Keep this in mind as you read my thread. /1 pic.twitter.com/iyMDi6itUr
— Jason Kint (@jason_kint) September 19, 2024
Manufacturing: “Machinists Report ‘No Meaningful Progress’ In Boeing Talks” [Aviation Week]. “The first two days of mediated talks between representatives from Boeing and its striking International Association of Machinists (IAM) employees offered little encouragement that the walkout will be short-lived, increasing the likelihood that near-term financial ramifications will be significant. ‘Unfortunately, mediation concluded today without reaching any resolution,’ the IAM negotiating team said in a statement late Sept. 18. ‘No meaningful progress was made during today’s talks.’ No further talks were scheduled, the statement added.”
Manufacturing: “A strike by Boeing factory workers shows no signs of ending after its first week” [Associated Press]. “The strike, which mostly involves workers at factories in the Puget Sound area of Washington state, will quickly affect Boeing’s balance sheet. The company gets much of its cash when it delivers new planes, and the strike has stopped production of 737s, 777s and 767s that Boeing was delivering at a rate of nearly one per day.”
Manufacturing: “Boeing Faces Long Strike as Gig Economy Gives Workers Clout” [Bloomberg]. “[A]s workers stare down the embattled manufacturer for better pay and benefits, the 33,000 members of IAM District 751 have the full benefit of a tight labor market and gig economy that provides a quick transition into jobs that help make ends meet. That gives the union bargaining leverage, potentially frustrating Boeing’s effort to swiftly end a conflict that’s costing it an estimated $100 million each day…. Many machinists interviewed by Bloomberg News cited a strong sense of injustice over what they perceived as union-busting tactics in the wake of the 2008 strike. Among them, Boeing started a second assembly line for the 787 Dreamliner in South Carolina, eroding its Seattle manufacturing base. ‘While new CEO Kelly Ortberg has taken a more conciliatory approach, there is 16 years of history pitched against him,’ said Rob Stallard, an analyst at Vertical Research Partners, adding that ‘the gap between what the IAM union members want and what Boeing is currently offering is large.’ A controversial 2014 contract extension looms particularly large. IAM members were pressured into a long-term deal that froze their pensions, increased health care premiums and locked in modest pay increases in order to keep manufacturing of the 777X jet in the Seattle area. It’s the deal that expired on Sept. 12. ‘For 10 years, the union had no room to maneuver and lost all their leverage,’ said Leon Grunberg, a sociology professor emeritus at the University of Puget Sound. ‘That may be contributing to the sense of payback or retribution.’ Boeing can’t resort to the same playbook in these talks. It doesn’t have a new jet development program in the pipeline after five years of heavy financial losses. It also can’t shift more manufacturing to the Southeastern US, since unemployment is still hovering near record-low rates in that region.” • The whole piece is worth reading, as an exercize in FAFO by Boeing management.
Manufacturing: “Boeing angers another union by asking to include SPEEA employees in furloughs” [KING5]. “The SPEEA union unanimously rejected a request from Boeing to include their represented employees in company-wide furloughs designed to save cash during the ongoing machinists’ strike. SPEEA, the Society of Professional Engineering Employees in Aerospace, represents around 17,000 engineers, technical workers, pilots and other professionals in the aerospace industry employed by Boeing and their recently acquired supplier SpiritAerosystems.”
Manufacturing: “Hit by strike, Boeing flies in out-of-state janitors, applies furloughs broadly” [Seattle Times]. “[O]ne particular set of nonunion employees were surprised to learn they will be among those subject to the rolling furloughs. That’s those in Boeing’s Chief Aerospace Safety Office — responsible for the company’s implementation of Congressional legislation that raised safety standards and setting up a new companywide safety management system. Reducing the work there seems counter to the assurance new Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg made Wednesday that ‘all activities critical to our safety … will be prioritized and continue.’… The first contractors laid off this week included very experienced engineers who’d been brought back from retirement to help design fixes for problems holding up the certification of Boeing’s 777X, MAX 7 and MAX 10 airplanes. Getting those planes certified, essential to Boeing’s future, didn’t need to be affected by the strike. And one employee at the Chief Aerospace Safety Office said via email that ‘Boeing was either too sloppy and careless in its rush to get people off the payroll as fast as possible, or they were lying when they said the Safety Management System (SMS) was critical to our future.’ Boeing has been required by legislation to set up an SMS that standardizes and regulates safety and risk management across the company. The employee — who asked to remain anonymous due to Boeing’s restrictions on employees speaking to media without authorization — wrote that setting up the SMS, which has been in work since 2019, is ‘very, very far behind’ schedule. Boeing on Thursday denied this, stating, ‘Our SMS is not behind schedule, and the temporary furloughs will not affect our multi-year SMS implementation plan.'”
Playing the Ponies: “Buffett’s Remaining $34 Billion Bank of America Stake Is Now Pure Profit” [Bloomberg]. “Warren Buffett’s continued disposals of Bank of America Corp. shares have now covered the billionaire’s investment cost, leaving him with a more than $34 billion stake that’s pure profit.
In a round of transactions disclosed in a filing Thursday, Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. sold $896 million of the stock this week. That means total proceeds from share disposals since mid-July and dividends earned since 2011 have surpassed the $14.6 billion that the conglomerate spent to build its stake in the second-largest US bank…. After years spent adding to the position and praising the bank’s leadership, Buffett has offered no public explanation for his decision to pull back. Commenting can be complicated, as US regulators don’t want major bank shareholders potentially exerting influence over lenders.” • Swell. Any social utility here at all?
Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 61 Greed (previous close: 65 Greed) [CNN]. One week ago: 47 (Neutral). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Sep 20 at 3:05:20 PM ET.
Gallery
Good kitties;
Cats Playing https://t.co/LR6uXI34tm pic.twitter.com/tiY0Rv7h1i
— Pierre Bonnard (@pierre_bonnard) September 4, 2024
Idpol sure is easy to co-opt, isn’t it?
Progress with the kitten:
Now kitten just decided to chill on the lap. I prefer this over her sitting literally on my keyboard. pic.twitter.com/vadSp7iGKb
— Wajahat Ali (@WajahatAli) September 20, 2024
Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. Fro TH:
TH writes: “Strolling along the Alamitos bayside, we (Hubby-Don & I) stopped to admire this little family of blue Agave.”
RE: SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater in Los Angeles County
http://publichealth.lacounty.gov/media/Coronavirus/data/index.htm
SARS-CoV-2 wastewater concentration as a percentage of the Winter 2023-2024 peak concentration value
8/10/24 – 88%
8/17/24 – 86%
8/24/24 – 75%
8/31/24 – 57%
9/7/24 – 56%
We were thinking that the arrival of a new variant and the social mixing caused by Labor Day would increase the spread of COVID-19. The Labor Day holiday had an effect. There was a steep decline in the concentration of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater during the last two weeks of August. The Labor Day holiday did not cause the concentration of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater to start increasing again, but it stopped the decline.
Same in Minnesota. The covid wastewater count just exceeded last winter’s peak.
I don’t suppose Los Angeles country displays case data going back to 2020? Thanks!
Here is an additional data page, but it’s not really what you’re looking for:
http://dashboard.publichealth.lacounty.gov/covid19_surveillance_dashboard/
There is case data. However, we know that almost two years ago we stopped caring about cases and testing.
The wastewater data is good for the present but hard to compare with a couple of years ago. LA County Public Health came up with a calculation about two years ago. They are trying to combine data from four different wastewater zones. They are not interested in the SARS-CoV-2 wastewater value. They are only interested in whether it goes up or down over a period of six months.
AI is here to save us?
https://www.commondreams.org/news/three-mile-island-microsoft
I’m sure noting will wrong this either
Is anyone else today stuck in a Captcha doom loop? My Ebay account continuously demands that I ‘prove’ that I am a human, as in ten times in a row one time. Still no access to the account.
Thanks.
I have stopped using spotify because it cannot remember that I am logged in for more than 5 minutes of pausing and I have to make a new password every time I log in there. I suppose it would cost them something if my account were hacked but I cannot imagine what. I have never sent them a single penny, ever.
I’ve had weird access denied responses trying to log into a variety of accounts if my computer clock time is out of sync for the time zone my pc is configured for. If, for example, my pc clock time is 10 or 20 minutes out of sync for the time zone my pc is set to, or set 12 hours off if the AM/PM switch got flipped by mistake, etc. (Pc clock time can get out of sync for lots of reasons.) Does your pc’s clock time look ok for the time zone your pc is set to? / my 2 cents.
I’ll check into it.
Meanwhile, back at the ranch…. I went ahead and did all the Windows 10 upgrades that I have been holding off on, and the problem went away. (Curious that.) The ‘refresh’ program not only ‘fixed’ my software in general, but it also “reformed” my BIOS and GUID. The ‘firmware’ went through about a ten minute long process of “upgrading.” It almost looks like there was an entirely new operating program installed.
Is it my inbred paranoia, or does this sound like something was “wrong” with the back end of the unit.
On days like this, I wish that I was not a poster child for Luddism.
{I definitely do not use pagers or beepers on general philosophical grounds. But desktops??? Boobytraps everywhere.}
Thank you and stay safe.
oh it’s been horrible for me. archive.ph is always hard, but my manga translation websites are somehow even worse. they’ll give me the same photo of a motorcycle and i just have to keep guessing which squares they want me to select over and over again until i finally guess right. i no longer understand the point of the captchas.
I think the main point of the captchas is for you to train AI to recognize for example motorcycles.
Yep.. captcha as a training tool.
I always choose the audio version, much easier.
Too soon?
(Sung to the tune of, “Life during Wartime” by the Talking Heads)
Heard of a van that is loaded with pagers
Packed up and ready to go
Heard of some dark websites out by the Information highway
A place where nobody goes
The sound of gunfire off in the distance
I’m getting used to it now
Lived on a kibbutz, lived in the West bank
I’ve lived all over this town
This ain’t no party, this ain’t no disco
This ain’t no fooling around
No time for chancing, or ceasefires, lovey
Bibi ain’t got time for that now
Transmit the message to the receiver
Hope for a ‘splodey-head day
I got three passports, a couple of shell co’s
You don’t even know my real name
High on a hillside, the trucks are loading
Everything’s ready to roll
I sleep in the daytime, and I work in the nighttime
I might not ever get home
This ain’t no party, this ain’t no disco
This ain’t no fooling around
This ain’t no Mudd club, don’t mess with Bibi
He ain’t got time for that now
[Musical interlude]
This ain’t no party, this ain’t no disco
This ain’t no foolin’ around
No time for chancing, or cease-fires, lovey
Bibi ain’t got time for that now
Heard about Gaza? Heard about Tehran?
Heard about gamma decay?
You ought to know not to stand by the window
That flash can blind you, they say
I got some groceries, some peanut butter
To last a couple of days
But I ain’t got no speakers, ain’t got no smart phone
Ain’t got no records to play
Why bomb a college? Is that the right move?
Gonna be different this time?
Can’t write a letter, can’t send no postcard
I ain’t got nothing at all
This ain’t no party, this ain’t no disco
This ain’t no foolin’ around
No time for chancing, or cease-fires, lovey
Bibi ain’t got time for that now
Trouble in transit, got through the customs roadblock
We blended it with the crowd
We got computers, we’re tapping supply lines
I know that that ain’t allowed
We dress like students, we dress like housewives
Or in a suit and a tie
I’ve changed my cabinet
So many times now, I don’t know what it look likes …
You make me shiver, I feel so tender
We make a pretty good team
Don’t get exhausted, I’ll do some driving
You’d better get you some sleep
Burned all the notebooks, what good are notebooks?
They won’t help Bibi survive
Gaza is burning just like a furnace
A sight that keeps him alive
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PBIlxmug8PU
In the spirit of the original. Pretty sure I saw David Byrne dancing on stage when not singing.
That is one act I regret not seeing live. I had the chance, youth is wasted on the young.
Saw them and Elvis Costello in the same summer many years ago. 2 of the best shows I ever saw.
Lies, damned lies and statistics… political version ( mild sarcasm here ). Polls are shifting of course, especially in the past week or so it seems ( ok if there is pushback about any post debate bumps, or no bump )…That being said the national polling wasn’t so great after all circa 2016 for the then presumed next fearless leader.
Latest on the projections courtesy of noted stats guy Nate Silver. Harris with a lead at least on the national polling. Early November is gonna get here soon!
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4890948-vice-president-harris-leads-trump-poll/
My guess is that Harris, who does represent the incumbent party, being below 50% is at least somewhat encouraging for Trump.
Early voting starts here in just about 2 weeks. Barring a nuke hitting some European capital, I don’t see events influencing the outcome from hereon out. It will be down to the ground game, and how many independents either hold their noses for Trump or go with Stein/West/None of the Above.
> barring a nuke hitting some European capital, I don’t see events influencing the outcome from hereon out.
That’s why I hate “early voting” with the hatred ot a million burning suns. It rewards tribalism, discourages voting on the basis of performance in crisis, new information, etc. One more degradation in the name of convenience.
I supernova your burning suns. It’s really hard (absent paper ballots handmarked) to run an honest election. Blowing up the election so it lasts for months with every ballot being touched by our failing postal system (my last water bill got routed to SE MN from St Paul (MN) thru Portland (OR)) is not the way to hold an election.
If I was running a campaign this cycle, I’d assume the other side was stuffing the absentee ballot box and would feel compelled to do the same. Cheat or lose isn’t how it’s supposed to work.
sarc/ Excuse me for now, I promised my AIPAC minder I’d go across the street to help the nursing home residents fill out their early ballots : ) /sarc
And that’s only sarcasm because nobody asked me to run a campaign this year. DFL has already mailed me a very easy to return SASE to request an early ballot. If I do, I’m pretty sure I’ll get an offer to help fill it out. Who knows? Maybe someone’s already doing that for me : )
yeah. whats up with the US Mail?
they lost my youngest’s Fafsa Application earlier this year…he never checked up, reckoning 5 months is how long it takes mail to get to austin…sigh.(never sent a letter in his life)
i, of course, kept asking how all the $ stuff was going…only found out day before he left that all was not well…again…sigh.
didnt biden keep trump’s post office guy?
i also get bills sometimes months late…but its cool, i guess…bc all that comes to eldest’s fone anyways.
Phyl says we should resurrect the Pony Express. Think of all the small businesses that would help? Horse breeders, post station franchisees, super light paper makers, riding instructors, and all of those young men and women yearning for adventure. Imagine it, shooting your way through thronging gangs of Thug-life holdup boyz, dodging Homeland Security roving “Inspection” teams, enduring the rigours of Nature.
America is going backwards on so much else, why not this too?
and Amfortas sez, “and just think of all that manure!!!”
i obtained about a ton of well rotted horse manure this morning, in fact…from my thumper neighbor(we never talk about religion or politics–cowboy church…has roping as church services at his place,lol).
but between my tractor and my truck, not enough smash to actuate my cracker rigged unloading device*…so i hafta pull out about a third of it by hand(with grandad’s 100 yr old hod hoe), first…and i was already in decrepitude and ragged claw mode by then…seein as i had been pullin weeds and doing construction since around 4:30am(this was 10am when he finally called me).
that stuff smells like victory…but i know the hay he gets likely has that damned persistent herbicide in it(most of the hayfarmers use it)…so the manure does too.
so im mixing it with the city/county mulch, and will fire up the retort whenever it rains next week and turn a bunch of that giant cane one sees in the bar ditch into charcoal dust to jump start the microorganism party within.
then hop on Rocinante(tractor) scoop it into all the “lick tubs” my neighbors bring me(with big holes drilled in bottom) and haul them over here to the Library Cloister area for the fall garden….lettuce and spinach dont care about the herbicides…so hopefully there will be time to mitigate that stuff in time for tomatoes next spring.
(* this consists of a section of small aperture stock panel, just a bit longer than the box trailer, with a long chain woven into the front part, and a tarp i use as a sacrifice to keep the dirt, etc from goin through the holes…hook chain up to Rocinante’s bucket, engage trucks parking brake and leave it in 1st gear, and back the tractor up…whole thing lifts up, front to back, dumping everything behind trailer. really rather exciting, as the panel could break and send that chain whipping at me.)
Ah, there is hope for civilization yet.
Could I refer to you as a Librarytarian? You know the drill, ragged individualist.
Keep on staying safe.
since im the only real radical i know, IRL, im going with Anarch, a la Junger(i know, i know..Forest Passage, not the others…and i could never join up like he did)
What’s up with Biden leaving Louis DeJoy, foisted on us by the Republicans, in charge of the postal service? Another “make government small enough to drown in the bathtub” guy.
Any one who thought Biden wasn’t into privatization of the government wasn’t paying attention. Dejoy was one of the truly effective members of the Trump administration. Effective in hastening the destruction of the public mail and delivery service that is. Of course Biden kept him.
Funny thing about the mail; DeJoy is still running it. That’s our Democrats! Passed on the opportunity to resolve that situation.
You know, polls got the HRC and Biden votes fairly well in 2016 and 2020 (looking at Realclearpolitics’ poll aggregators for both years. The difference was that Trump outperformed his polls by a few percents (I was thinking the difference was larger in 2016 than 2020, i.e. polls got the numbers more right in 2020. It turns out that they didn’t, it seems.) If I had looked at the data more systematically, I’d have a better sense of which demographics that the polls got wrong (IMHO, NYT/Siena is doing a good job looking at the patterns of support demographic by demographic), but my educated guess is that Joe Biden being “Joe from Scranton” was a bigger deal than not, especially after looking at the Teamsters’ internal polls: Biden did better among the non-PMC votes and that won him some key states.
A lot of votes are locked up by one side or the other, but older blue collar voters still have some memories of the Democrats of the past. These are also, I think, the big electorally important demographics not likely to be captured by polls reliably (if only because they are harder to reach). (NB: young Black and Hispanic men are probably even less reliably captured in polls, but they are also the least likely to vote. Of course, if the polls are any guide, these are also a significant component of the “wobbly” electorate this year with unexpectedly large support for Trump, at least compared to their stereotypical attitudes.) I imagine that Harris can only hope that Covid wiped out enough of them that their votes are less relevant.
Some of those old-school Democrats may even recall that Dick Cheney was not on their side!
> griffen
> Latest on the projections courtesy of noted stats guy Nate Silver.
Watching The Duran, I first met this fella Robert Barnes, who is apparently some sort of paleoconservative libertarian civil rights lawyer. Watching Robert Barnes once or twice, I first met a guy named Richard Baris, who is aparently some sort of … pollster. Having watched Baris once or twice, I have to tell you that he has nothing but scorn, utter comtempt, for this ‘noted’ Nate Silver.
Since everything else in the US is corrupt nowadays, it’s difficult to believe that polling stats would be any different. Ya pays yer nickel and ya takes yer cherce. What’s frustrating is (1) not knowing whom to believe and then, when you think you’ve found a reliable guide, to (2) find that they are playing fast and loose, just like everyone else.
That’s why I try to read a wide range of comment and remain sceptical 24/7.
https://www.levernews.com/harris-turn-to-the-dark-money-side/
Harris’ Turn To The Dark (Money) Side
Despite a history of decrying dark money, Harris is now reaping the rewards of big, secret political donations.
Ya think?
@antidlc — Omigod, please say it ain’t so!
In the immortal words of Captain Louis Renault as played by Claude Rains: “I’m shocked, shocked to find that gambling is going on in here!”
Just make that gobbling up dark money instead of gambling, and remove Renault’s tacit downlow approval when I say it….
Patient readers, this will be an afternoon of rolling orts and scraps (but then people may return during the weekend). I just did Friday’s table updates.
And Boeing.
And put in a truly extraordinary clip from Kamala on Oprah. The frightening thing is that Kamala may actually be sincere, and speaking as profoundly as she is able.
What sort of dressing pairs well with that word salad blathering?
Russian? / ;)
I listened to it without watching her and, as a way of saying nothing but pure vibes, I thought it was quite effective. She lands on a feel-good phrase, repeats it and flies on to the next platitude, a budgerigar of blether that never actually comes to rest on a falsifiable proposition.
If you had told me she was practising for the panel game “Just a Minute”, I would have believed you (she needs practice, she repeats herself but she’s got avoiding hesitation and deviation licked).
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/articles/3cCvZ57mdYCny9DS2ZdxZJj/four-marvellous-minutes-of-merton
I loved the short “Mm” Oprah gave as the only response, though. Not even “Mmm” in case it encouraged her :-)
French dressing always for foreign policy, of course, but for that kind of domestic pandering I’d go with bacon ranch dressing, whichever brand is least healthy.
Thousand “Epstein” Island
I thought that Harris rose to power by undressing. So, simple olive oil with a whiff of vinegar.
What about spicing things up with some (Yemeni) Zhug?
Kammie’s in trouble:
https://mondoweiss.net/2024/09/jill-stein-leads-kamala-harris-among-muslim-voters-in-swing-states-as-palestine-supporters-weigh-choices-amid-gaza-genocide/?ml_recipient=132994755409740967&ml_link=132994746440221981&utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=2024-09-20&utm_campaign=Daily+Headlines+RSS+Automation
More like Brown sauce. No need to undress, merely genuflect, genuflect.
the words aren’t so bad: she does get where she’s going without a serious detour. It’s her beatific expression and incantatory delivery that are so jarring. Like she’s trying to embody the archetypal mother figure despite utterly lacking any maternal qualities.
For me, the theatrical gesticulations and exaggerated delivery only amplify the impressions she is vacuous. She succeeds in persuading me she believes there’s something profound in her pile o’gibberish . . .and only the truest of idiots could think that.
This, coupled with Kamala being supported by increasing numbers of the most execrable humans in public life, is causing me to seriously consider voting for Trump. I would never have thought anything could do that.
watching that amplified my impressions that she’s frelling smashed.
and this is not the first time,lol….either high or drunk or both(what boys call “crossfaded”(!))…
as ive said, i used to roll around with a woman who looked and sounded almost exactly like her…long ago…same dreamy word-salady gobbledygook…then reach for the bong again…
i sincerely hope that some horribly mistreated waiter leaks the video files from whatever Diddy parties she attended.
i mean, we’ve been in bizarro universe for some time, now…why not go all the way?
as it were….
Try watching her with the sound off.
The demon inside becomes much more evident.
When I did that I noticed her avoiding the press by pretending to speak on her phone wearing two white earbuds.
How stupid does she think we are?
I thought, upon seeing her in action, of one of Cinderella’s Wicked Step Sisters. With Hillz being the Step Mother of course.
As for “absent fathers,” you cannot be any more “absent” than Creepy Joe.
This cast of characters for the “2024 Quadrennial Election Show” reminds me strongly of the gang from Rockey and Bullwinkle.
Trump as ‘Snidely Whiplash’ and Harris as Dudley Do-Right. Obama as Mr. Peabody and the DNC as Sherman. The election as an episode from “Fractured Fairy Tales.”
The real damage here, from what I can see, is the complete destruction of any “legitimacy” for the American Political System. People usually like a clown show, but who would want to make one Leader of the Free World?
Did we watch the same clip?
That was the worst word salad I’ve heard in a while. She spoke so passionately about…being human. It was hardly an insightful revelation about Americans. Or anything, really.
And the fact Oprah looked like she wanted to be in another room said it all.
It’s odd that this clip is viewed as “extraordinary” – this is just the usual American hagiography but expressed in a tone fitting for Opera/daytime tv.
One other observation – I use to come to NC to cut through the mainstream BS (especially Lambert’s watercooler), but lately so many take on Trump/Harris have been unhelpful. I think I’ll just subscribe to Tooze’s chartbook instead, and check out watercooler for the COVID updates. Times change I guess.
I’d begun to think Harris’s word salads might be the result of coaching and that assuming a false persona blew her circuits. Lol, no.
I did not watch the Oprah Winfrey ‘Unite For America’ special for Kamala. I am glad I didn’t because it is over 1 1/2 hours and television is not my thing. I lived for a decade without one. I tried to find it today and most results are clips from people that are posted on Phasebook. I have not had an account there for eight years and I am sure they are snippets reflecting the posters political biases. The entire thing can be found here at Oprah Winfrey’s bootstrap.
Kamala was asked how she would handle the problem of inflation by a young couple. This segment was a highlight this morning on Fox news, but the reply was selectively edited. In the show I found it at 36:24. The answer is she would attack price gouging by businesses and assistance (undefined) with a $25,000 down payment for first time home buyers. She also mentions a tax credit for small businesses. Those were the only things mentioned and are probably tax credits. That is okay if you need a deduction but not so wonderful if you have limited income and are living on someone’s sofa.
I have not watched the entire thing and will not do so. I put in the link for those who might be interested. I think she is trying to speak like Obama. His method of pausing after every few words to let the audience savor his profound words. I think there used to be a segment on Saturday Night Live like that called Deep Thoughts. Kamala’s problem is she is an empty pantsuit and, as Art pointed out, is entirely vacuous. I can see why the Dims have brought out Hollywood to stump for her but they are as false as she is. Actors are held in low esteem in Japan because they are seen as empty puppets. This dingbat persona will never appeal to the working classes in America and she is going to lose by a landslide unless they literally bring out the big guns. This time in 2016 and 2020 Trump was behind by double digits and steadily improved. This year he is within the margin of error.
Empty pantsuit: check.
And we know the putative money for first-time home buyers, tax credits, etc., will all be means-tested down to zero.
It will be like that $600 that Joe and Kamala never paid up.
There’s a presidential election campaign? I live in the New York City suburbs. No evidence of any such here. No evidence of an upcoming election for any office. Not surprising as this is a one party place on the national level, but once past the penumbra of the City things begin to change. No, I did not say or imply for either the worse or the better … things change. I would be surprised if each major party’s portion of the vote is not noticeably changed in the election. There are many in New York State who have not shared the blessings of Biden’s wonderful economy, but what do they do. There is differing rhetoric but neither candidate of the major parties promises any substantial change from the return to the Gilded Age that has characterized economic and social policy from Reagan to the present. What about Clinton and Obama? What about them? Economic and social policy trundled right alone back to the Gilded Age? Oh, the”ruling class” is more enlightened. Really? The so-called elite of the late 19th century or of the 1920s has been replaced by the so-called elite of experts and billionaires and academics et al. I see no difference. There is them and there is us, Hillary’s deplorables and irredeemables. It was a class war then. It is a class war now. There are differences worth noting: pervasive surveillance, militarized police forces, lawfare etc. After all it is necessary to keep the lower orders in their place.
Taibbi and Kirn, public excerpt.
America This Week, September 20, 2024: “The Blood of the Apparent Martyrs.”
Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton combine to move us several steps closer to Walter’s prediction of the first drone assassination for a tweet. Plus, “The Blood of the Martyrs,” by Stephen Vincent Benét
https://www.racket.news/p/america-this-week-september-20-2024
I don’t know about Oprah. To me, she looks like she’s seriously lapping it up. After all, Oprah’s a woman who has made an amazingly successful career out of spewing nonsense stuff for decades and her audience loves it. She’s like the Queen of Stuff That Sounds Really Profound But Isn’t, you know what I mean? That it has worked so well for her is part of why we are here today, in this time, where we are, now. Here. Now. We.
“I don’t know about Oprah…”
Brilliant comment, perfect parody.
More complete link for “Boeing Faces Long Strike…”
https://archive.ph/IZnNG
“Company executives might have to fly economy class”
Oh noes … are emotional support animals on standby?
i highly recommend the emotional support peacocks.
thats still my favorite one.
ive spent time with those fowl…and can just imagine sitting next to that chick and her enormous bird on a plane.
theres a rich and pretentious old hippie woman around here…drives some kind of old(but well appointed!) jalopy around town at 5mph…runs a rescue dog outfit…forever with the letters to the paper expressing horror at all the ranch dogs in backs of pickups, etc…she travels around town for coffee at various places…her thoroughly whipped hubbs and about 12 dogs of various sizes in tow…
so the lil mom and pop beer and cig store i frequent…ill just drive around for a while if i see that car…bcaus i know that the entire little seating area is filled with dogs, and her “yes, dear” toyfriend….she’s rich, remember…and prone to whisper campaigns…so the mom and pop proprietors let her get away with claiming all those animals are for emotional support(as is, presumably, her husband)…its just easier that way.
I was terrorized by peacocks on a regular basis, and when they did a quit claim deed on our home and gave us 30 days to vacate the premises, we were actually thankful to be rid of them, and our abode.
ive wanted a couple of pea hens and only one(1) male for a long time.
ever since i parked my van on that hippie commune outside of austin…they kept them(wild…not penned) for the feathers, which they’d sell at the various rennfaires they’d migrate to.
i’d just eat all the babies, until the original 3some needed replacing.
they’ll get into the tallest trees for the night…and are rather fierce.
(and speaking of tree birds…these 14 muscovy ducklings cousin brought me some months ago are near full grown, now(hafta confine and butcher at least 5 males , so they dont get all rape-ey, as ducks are wont to do).
well, much to my surprise, they like sitting around in trees.
and are expert fliers(unlike geese or chickens(turkeys dont know they can fly, it seems…so shhhhh)
i put them up at night, so after chickens(finally!) go in, i hafta wander with a long bamboo pole and shoo them out of trees.)
You mean middle management? No, they were fur lowed.
i would consider making one or more of said peahens middle management…depending on their skills, of course…but the peacock?
no.
he’d be arm candy and pure entertainment when day drinkin at the Wilderness Bar.
right now, the ducks help round up the chickens in the dusk…chickens, especially the banties, jungle fowl banties, and all the younger birds…like to stay out til the bitter end.
very frustrating when it gets dark at 9pm, and youve been up since 3am.
ducks want their dried mealworms…so they crowd the chickens into the dilapidated screen door to the run, and then i corral them into the house, proper…and put ducks in the run for the night.
question for the mods: was the eventually above comment flagged by software because of “cocks”?…as in “peacocks”?
just curious as to how that all works.
maybe a big honkin post by Jules?(i understand liking back of the house,lol)
not all of us are all that tech savvy, after all.
AP Boeing article: “The company gets much of its cash when it delivers new planes.” Gee, really?
“much of its cash…”
implying that “most” of its cash comes from the crony capitalist grift?
I remember Boeing being on the edge of finacial ruin just before covid hit.
The big news, if true.
Israel says its strike on Beirut killed a top Hezbollah military official as Lebanon reports 14 died
So the pager attack flushed out targets. Perhaps that was the goal?
Patient readers, I have finally finished the last ort.
Lots and lots of election stuff. Attention is shifting to the swing states, and rightly.
Enjoy your weekend.
Those evangs for Kamala are definitely ‘grass-roots’, as in dead Presidents.
Oh, I thought you meant those Ultra Evangs, the Rastas. Talk about going back to the roots!
Haile unlikely.
Ha. I don’t think this is the original…
Oh yes. The Ethiopes are Highlanders too!
So, is Harris going to play the Queen of Sheba card? (There is already a pro-Harris reggae song playing down in Jamaca.) Or will she end up being one of the Butt sisters? {Ask the troglodyte.}
For the TDS crowd: Troglodyte: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n0zfdptxQvY&ab_channel=TheJimmyCastorBunch-Topic
Uh, wow
https://sonar21.com/an-emp-attack-on-the-u-s-power-grids-and-critical-national-infrastructure/
Somebody should ask Kamala (and Trump) about the above. Maybe we shouldn’t be provoking countries that have the power to do this.
Every last one of the 400 million guns in the USA would continue to function, that is until the ammo runs out.
Wuk, there are a good deal more than 400,000,000 Guns in the USA, no one knows how many however it’s undoubtedly more than 400MM.
A decade or more ago Kevin R.C. O’Brien tried to find out how many Guns had been sold to Americans over the prior few decades and the number He was able to document, with a good deal of effort, was more than 300,000,000.
They can last a long time, the last Spencer Carbines were made in 1865 and they are still popular with Civil War Reenactors.
And 56-52 Spencer Ammunition is still available, if expensive.
My guess? somewhere north of 600,000,000.
I’ll add that there are @200,000 Machine Guns legally owned by Americans with $ ( $15K for the cheapest to $100K plus for the nice stuff) to spend on toys for big boys and a large but unknown # of illegally possessed Machine Guns floating around.
You can make a full auto switch for a Glock out of a wire coat hanger FFS.
> I’ll add that there are @200,000 Machine Guns legally owned by Americans with $ ( $15K for the cheapest to $100K plus for the nice stuff)
So Routh had $15,000 lying around for a machine gun? Odd.
Depends on a) how long ago he bought it, if bought legally. There was a time when STEN SMGs were effectively cheaper than the tax stamp they required (recognizing that legal AK conversions went a lot higher); or b) “credit cards.” If a full auto AK clone is going for 15 kilobucks (though I doubt that they’re anywhere near that cheap) I’ve got a half dozen cards that would get me one, and a couple cards that would get me two. The tax stamp would be negligible.
Also presumes that it WAS actually full-auto, and that it was legal. I haven’t seen news (though I’m not looking all that hard) one way or t’other.
@Tom Stone – WOW. Prices are … well, “wow” kinda covers it. I thought you were high, but I googled a bit on transferrable stuff and … at the risk of sounding repetitive, “wow!”
i have 2 old microwave ovens, with the powercords cut and hard wired to a great big grounding rod in my shop.
thats where i keep the hand crank shortwave radios…as well as their disconnected lithium batteries(which i replace every few years)…and a few of those shake flashlights…and a bunch of solenoids/coils, etc for various things….like my truck, the tractor and the string trimmers.
because ive been aware of and yelling about this for 30+ years,lol.
remember the fears about “scuds in a bucket”?
it really is that unsophisticated…as far as nukeweapons go, at least.
Iran could do this with the knowledge to hand.
so a man-made Carrington Event….and add in a man made Kessler Event in space, and suddenly USA is blind, deaf and dumb.
and essentially in pre-telegraph days.
wont effect my seedbank, though…nor my numerous elbow powered tools…nor the stuff i have squirreled away dried and canned and otherwise preserved…altho we would hafta fire up the smokeshed and cure all the meat in the freezers real quicklike,lol.
bad news is US Boomers are not only hardened against this, but also elsewhere usually…so they can retaliate and away we go.
keep yer shades handy.
Imagine if Harris/Biden were, rather than just talking about how great the economy is, acknowledging inflation, that the rate of inflation is coming down, and that through vigorous antitrust enforcement, they’re working hard to bring prices down as well. The latter even happens to be somewhat true!
Instead Harris is literally running on no platform at all, and the polls are tied. If Democrats win, this demonstrates that you can actually run and win without any policy whatsoever. Indeed, even when supporting odious policy, like actual genocide!
This is truly the stupidest timeline. I’ve not seen anything like it, but I haven’t been alive all that long. I don’t envy our chances, to paraphrase the synthetic in Alien.
“The dreadful sincerity in her voice is reminding me of some voice I’ve before, but I can’t think which. It’s not a good memory.”
I also find Kamala’s vocal stylings familiar:
https://youtube.com/clip/UgkxUtSFaUvelY5sFKLk9a3dgc-4E4eCy6S3?si=N7k5GdgoXwZnrBLI
Trump vs Harris is like Darth Vader vs C-3PO. Frankly I’d be tempted to vote for Vader. He’s worse in terms of policy but at least I can understand what the hell he is saying.
trump is more like the creature Jabba kept in the basement.
all id.
Kamel?
aside from party milf…one of those fake made up gaudy people from the imperial court in hunger games seems rather apropos.
(and i hate it that so much dystopian fiction turned out to be so, so prophetic)
(i lean towards Huxley’s Savage, myself…or some Heinleinian antihero…a la Farnham’s Freehold,lol)
I was not that big a fan of The Hunger Games but in upper class fashions and other ways it has come to seem oddly prophetic.
A similar class conflict themed film is The Hunt where rich people drug and kidnap those they think are rightwing deplorables and then hunt and kill them in a foreign country made up to look American. It doesn’t end well for the rich people or most of the poor people.
This film, which came out just before the pandemic, disappeared quickly but gets props for originality and swimming against the tide. Most H’wood films these days seem barely aware of the poor or at least poor white people. That’s not a complaint, just sort of an observation.
“…The Hunt where rich people drug and kidnap those they think are rightwing deplorables and then hunt and kill them in a foreign country …”
you think that aint happening right now?
and like forever?
see: Rome,lol.
the worse things get as perceived by the elites, the more openly cruel and capricious and arrogant they will get.
its just all still under the table, for now.
hence, my wish..up there or below…that some disgruntled diddy employee puts the video out in the clear,lol…lets get that part over with.
so we can get the resulting burning times over with.
mask has been slipping for all my 55 years…it’ll fall off altogether at some point…the grease paint will melt in those giant klieglights those people live under…and they’ll be revealed at last as lizards in human suits, or whatver…merely depraved and evil humans….but revealed for whom they really are.
ive seen it, from below, many times…because none of them pay any mind to the help…or at least didnt way back then.
id like to get the fallout from that over with.
Here’s a tip on watching video clips like the Oprah/Harris clip.
Watch it with the sound on.
Then watch it with the sound off and pay close attention to the body language.
Then listen to it with your eyes closed, paying close attention.
Watch it again with the sound on.
Quite often the speech and body language are incongruent and they are always revealing when contrasted.
My thoughts while watching the clips with the sound off:
Harris’s near constant arm/hand gestures are odd. They seem designed to show she is enthusiastic and engaged in what she’s saying. Also that she’s talking about big, important stuff. But she does it too much and it comes off as chaotic and out of control.
The arm/hand gestures don’t match her facial expressions either. Her face sometimes looks cutesy, other times she has a flat effect. I found it discombobulating. It would be interesting to go back to interviews early in her career to see if she has always had that body language or if it is a result of more recent coaching.
I did love the look on Oprah’s face at one point when she stared out at the camera like she just smelled something really bad. It may be the only time I have ever related to Oprah, because watching the interview clips, I smelled something really bad, too.
So I was trained early in medical school an elaborate system of dealing with patients known as transactional analysis. It is not innate behavior……very very arduous to learn to do well……you have to very quickly ascertain emotions that are displayed in the eyes, mouth, facial muscles and body language. Then you as the provider alter your behavior to match the patient and their presentation. It has worked well for me for decades. In other eras, this was known as bedside manner.
Most central to this is the 60% of patients who are “stuck” in a personality type that then becomes a disorder – it is dysfunctional for them. It is also very difficult to treat.
One thing is for sure, we have had an absolute explosion of narcissistic personality disorder in the past 20 years or so. Something happened to the generation who were kids and young adults in the 70s.
Trump is a classic hopelessly stuck narcissist. He throws off all the signals to the one. These patients can be easily dealt with by providers who know how to interact with them.
Harris is an entire other issue……the facial movements, the speech patterns, the eyes and face discongruence when she speaks, the ridiculous accent changes……the CONSTANT FIXED angry eyes/happy mouth …..she is a classic borderline personality and there are overtones of schizoaffective personality and paranoid personality. These people are miserable for everyone involved when in charge of anything. They are extraordinarily difficult to interact with.
They are the most difficult of all patients to deal with and I assume it is what makes me particularly cringe when seeing her. She will be an absolute disaster in any leadership position. An acquaintance of mine who is the head of HR for a fortune 100 Co gave me the exact same diagnosis the other day……Those HR higher ups in charge of C suite folks are paid to be experts at this as well. She predicted the same outcome. All I know when I see this kind of person coming at me as a physician, it is going to be a very hard visit.
I get that there is a certain amount of turmoil in offices and businesses of all kinds across this land, but is this normal? For what it’s worth and if correct, can you imagine this with her as President?
https://openthebooks.substack.com/p/vp-kamala-harris-had-92-percent-staff
‘If there was a debate bounce, it was very small.’
Could one say a dead cat bounce?
Bold call from electoral pollster Josiah Lippincott. He argues that Kamala is receiving the benefit of systematic overweighting of Democrats historical voting levels. If anything it now being worse.
“Below, I run through the 538 averaged “poll of polls” data for 2024 in the swing states and compare it to the same averages in 2020, next to the final 2020 returns. This analysis shows that Donald Trump is decisively leading in the swing states and headed toward victory in the electoral college and in the popular vote.”
…”In 2016, pollsters overestimated Hillary Clinton’s support in swing states by an average of 3.1 points. In 2020, they overestimated Biden’s support in those states by 3.6 points.”
https://x.com/jlippincott_/status/1837168992345280570
In both 2016 and 2020, polls got HRC and Biden’s voteshares about right, but underestimated Trump’s by about 3% in each case. This makes intuitive sense: easily identifiable and pollable voters also have stable and clear political preferences and partisanship. These are also the “usual” voters. These voters are not distrobuted across the country: they are proportionately more important in deep red and blue states–places like CA and NY. The less obvious voters are, in contrast, more important in various swing states: being able to sway their votes, for politicians of either party, I think is precisely what makes many of these states “swingable,” I think–these voters can go either way, with the right combination of moral appeals, policy positions, personal and professional credibility, etc–and good politicians can add (enough of) them to their more stable votes: thus, I think, we get people like Sherrod Brown.
I think Lippincott might be overestimating how successful Trump will be at capturing these voters–old union men, for example, may not be eager even now to support a billionaire Republican. Although the teamsters’ internal polls, cited in their press release a couple of days ago, does make me wonder: Biden, for all his flaws, still had some credibility with them. Harris has next to nothing. So the teamsters’ internal polls had Biden leading Trump, but with a lot of undecideds just before “the debate”: 44 to 36. Then, as of mid September, Trump leading Harris almost 2:1 (60-34 in an online poll of the members, 58-31 in a commissioned poll). If this can be generalized to the non PMC voters more broadly, it’s not hard to reach Lippincott’s conclusion (and the Tweet spunds lime this is effectively what he is doing, more or less.)