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2:00PM Water Cooler 9/26/2024

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Bird Song of the Day

Sage Thrasher, Gunnison, Colorado, United States. Twelve minutes! I guess people become fascinated with the mimicry and wonder what will come next?

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In Case You Might Miss…

  1. Kamala’s speeches on the economy (transcripts).
  2. Election integrity.
  3. Negotiations restart at Boeing, as suppliers and customers begin to feel pain.
  4. Potential good news on the nasal spray front (albeit a mouse study).

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Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

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Trump Assassination Attempts (Plural)

“Biden pretends to squish a bug on the table on The View after Whoopi Goldberg compared Trump to an insect following two assassination attempts” [Daily Mail]. • Forty days to go, so there’s still time for the light bulb to go on in some lone gunperson’s brain….

Wowsers:

Not sure what to make of this….

2024

Less than fifty days to go!

Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:

Once again, the Democrats must be very puzzled to have virtual unanimity across the political spectrum that “Harris is the one,” and yet the election is a virtual tie. How can this be? Perhaps a few more Republicans, generals, or celebrities will turn the tide.

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Kamala (D): “FULL TRANSCRIPT: Kamala Harris’ Speech At Pittsburgh, PA (Sept. 25, 2024)” [The Singju Post (venue)].

And I promise you I will be pragmatic in my approach. I will engage in what Franklin Roosevelt called “bold, persistent experimentation.” Because I believe we shouldn’t be constrained by ideology and instead should seek practical solutions to problems. Realistic assessments of what is working and what is not. Applying metrics to our analysis. Applying facts to our analysis. And stay focused, then, not only on the crises at hand, but on our big goals. On what’s best for America over the long term.

And part of being pragmatic means taking good ideas from wherever they come. Listen, you all know my career. Andrea shared it with you. I am a devout public servant. I also know the limitations of government. I’ve always been and will always be, and be clear about this, I’ve always been and will always be a strong supporter of workers and unions. I also believe we need to engage those who create most of the jobs in America.

Look, I’m a capitalist. I believe in free and fair markets. I believe in consistent and transparent rules of the road to create a stable business environment. And I know the power of American innovation. I’ve been working with entrepreneurs and business owners my whole career.

And I believe companies need to play by the rules. Respect the rights of workers and unions and abide by fair competition. And if they don’t, I will hold them accountable. And if anyone has a question about that, just look at my record as Attorney General.

Look at my record in California, taking on the big banks for predatory lending.

For Kamala’s record on taking on big banks, see NC here. On the mortgage settlement after the Crash, see NC here. And in any case, if you believe Biden now, Kamala was practically co-president during his entire term. So why are we only hearing about this now, 40 days before the election? (And when did people start saying “Franklin Roosevelt” instead of “FDR”? Under Obama, wasn’t it? It always bugged me that now we leave out “Delano,” too.

Kamala (D): “Read the transcript of Kamala Harris’ exclusive solo MSNBC interview” [MSNBC]. The start:

RUHLE: Madam Vice President, you just laid out your economic vision for the future.

HARRIS: Yes.

RUHLE: But, still, there are lots of Americans who don’t see themselves in your plans. For those who say, these policies aren’t for me, what do you say to them? [what a banal softball –lambert]

HARRIS: Well, if you are hardworking, if you have the dreams and the ambitions and the aspirations of what I believe you do, you’re in my plan.

I have to tell you, I really love and am so energized by what I know to be the spirit and character of the American people. We have ambition. We have aspirations. We have dreams. We can see what’s possible. We have an incredible work ethic.

But not everyone has the access to the opportunities that allow them to achieve those things. But we don’t lack for those things. But not everyone gets handed stuff on a silver platter. And so my vision for the economy — I call it an opportunity economy — is about making sure that all Americans, wherever they start, wherever they are, have the ability to actually achieve those dreams and those ambitions, which include, for middle-class families, just being able to know that their hard work allows them to get ahead, right?

I think we can’t and we shouldn’t aspire to have an economy that just allows people to get by. People want to do more than just get by. They want to get ahead. And I come from the middle class.

The rest of it is in substance the same as the Pittsburgh speech, except (naturally) no mention of FDR (Pittsburgh being a union town). Commentary:

I think Axelrod is stretching it with “conversation.” (Here the Daily Mail uses “how you gonna pay for it” as a gotcha; NC readers know about MMT, so there’s no gotcha here. Kamala doesn’t know, and so slithers off into “fair share” foofra).

Kamala (D): “Huge ad spending pours into defining Harris in the ‘blue wall’ battlegrounds” [NBC]. The deck: “Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are absorbing more than half of the presidential campaigns’ ad spending, with both sides trying to fill in voters’ perceptions of Harris.” And: “Harris’ campaign is running an equal mix of positive and negative ads on broadcast TV, according to the tracking firm AdImpact, while former President Donald Trump’s campaign is running almost exclusively negative and contrast ads — a demonstration of how focused voters and both campaigns are on defining Harris as she runs against a three-time candidate who has inspired entrenched views among American voters. ‘It’s simple: Everyone has made up their mind about Donald Trump. Trump’s numbers are the stickiest things in politics; they don’t move,’ said Alex Conant, a Republican strategist and presidential campaign veteran. ‘What’s moveable is Harris — we’ve seen a lot of movement in her numbers since she entered the race,’ Conant continued, noting the dramatic increase in Harris’ favorability numbers since she took over as the Democratic Party’s presidential candidate. ‘And there are a lot of voters who haven’t made up their minds about her because she’s new to the campaign, so there’s an ability to introduce new information. That’s why you’re seeing Trump pounding negative information about Harris and Harris feeling the need to give positive information to push back.’ The trend is similar to how the two parties handled the same period in the 2020 election — when Joe Biden ran a significantly higher share of contrast and positive ads compared with Trump, who relied primarily on contrast and negative ads but still ran a small share of positive spots.”

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Trump (R): “Trump Should Be Running Away With the Election. Why Isn’t He?” [The Free Press]. “With only a handful of interviews and some help from a sympathetic press corps, Harris has shed her image as the most unpopular vice president in recent history and rebranded as a viable candidate. But more to the point, Trump has allowed her to rebrand…. Instead of working hard to convince voters Harris is unfit for the top job, the Trump campaign has wasted too much time on two things: stupid stuff and bad stuff. First, the stupid. On Saturday, Trump posted a video on Truth Social, hawking silver ‘Trump Coins.’ … Last week he paid a visit to a bar in Greenwich Village, where he bought a burger with cryptocurrency (all part of a Trumpworld crypto push). None of this screams ‘I am laser-focused on delivering victory in November. Second, the bad. Hanging out with nutso racist troll Laura Loomer. Preemptively blaming the Jews if he loses in November. Indulging an unproven, sinister fantasy about pet-eating Haitian migrants in Ohio. Greenlighting J.D. Vance’s onstage appearance with Tucker Carlson last Saturday—just weeks after Carlson interviewed a Nazi apologist [Darryl Cooper] who he called the ‘best and most honest popular historian working in the United States today.’ All of this—the stupid and the bad—hurts Trump’s reelection chances. (Though at least the Trump campaign was smart enough to snub Mark Robinson from a recent North Carolina rally after reports revealed the gubernatorial candidate calls himself a ‘black Nazi’ on porn websites.) All of this is to say: We are a long way from Butler, Pennsylvania. In the aftermath of the Trump assassination attempt, people around the former president described him as a changed man.” • Yep. As I pointed out at the time, Trump had the opportunity to “turn” from a “Heel” into a “Face” (which he tried for a moment at the beginning of his acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention, but he didn’t persist in it). There’s still a chance for him to make a populist turn in the next 40 days, because IMNHSO Kamala’s support cannot but be shallow in the newly persuaded, but the bell will soon signal the end of the round.

Trump (R) (Smith/Chutkan): “The fruits of Jack Smith’s 2-year investigation into Trump will land on Tanya Chutkan’s desk today” [Politico]. “On Thursday, Smith’s prosecutors are scheduled to submit to Chutkan a 180-page dossier distilling their case against Trump — the fruits of a two-year investigation that included secret grand jury testimony from former Vice President Mike Pence and former chief of staff Mark Meadows. It is likely the special counsel’s final chance before Election Day to lay out his case for why Trump deserves to be put on trial and convicted. The filing — a legal brief accompanied by supporting exhibits — is expected to contain never-before-seen evidence about Trump’s efforts to subvert the last election. It could include snippets of interviews prosecutors conducted with some of Trump’s top advisers, documents Smith procured from the National Archives and a log of Trump’s Twitter activity as violence raged [oh come on] on Jan. 6, 2021. But prosecutors are not going to file these documents publicly. They must first submit them ‘under seal’ to Chutkan, who will then decide how much of the evidence is fit for public release. It’s all a far cry from the dramatic courtroom showdown Smith’s team had been preparing for a year ago, when they hoped to bring the case quickly before a jury. But it is likely to include damaging details for Trump just weeks before Election Day. Trump’s lawyers oppose any disclosure of the evidence that prosecutors have amassed, arguing that it amounts to interference in the final weeks of the campaign. They have repeatedly called for the entire case to be dismissed in light of the Supreme Court’s July 1 decision granting broad immunity for official presidential acts. But the very purpose of Smith’s brief is to advise Chutkan on how much of the case can proceed in light of the immunity ruling. Prosecutors are expected to argue that most of Trump’s allegedly criminal acts were in his capacity as a political candidate, not as president — or that any purportedly official acts are not entitled to immunity.” • “The very purpose” my Sweet Aunt Fanny.

Trump (R): “Watchdog report on Justice Department’s Jan. 6 response won’t be done by election” [Politico]. • How odd.

Trump (R): “In blow to Trump campaign, Nebraska won’t go through with electoral vote change” [Scripps]. “In a blow to the Republican party and its presidential nominee, Donald Trump, Nebraska’s governor said Tuesday he wouldn’t call a special session to change how electoral votes in the state are awarded. The decision follows a key state senator saying he would not support the effort. Former President Trump and his allies have been pressuring the state to change its 32-year law that awards electoral votes by congressional district instead of a statewide vote, otherwise known as a winner-take-all system. In winner-take-all states, the candidate winning the popular vote receives all of the state’s electoral votes. But in Maine and Nebraska, the state’s popular vote winner receives two electoral votes, and the popular vote winner in each congressional district receives one electoral vote. Nebraska has three congressional districts, and the Republican party believes their candidate will win two along with the two electoral votes coming from the state’s popular vote. But it’s Nebraska’s 2nd District that’s pushed the party to rally for a change in the electoral system, as the Omaha-based seat has tilted blue recently and could be the single electoral vote to decide a 269-269 tie.” • But no.

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“It’s not just Springfield, Haitians being flown to small towns nationwide” [Center Square]. Note lack of agency in “being flown.” This continues throughout the story. Springfield, MO: “‘due to an influx.'” Sylacauga, AL: “being dropped into their community.” Coffee County, TN: “are scheduled to arrive.” Charleroi, PA: “has grown.” Del Rio, TX: “descended on.” Is it too much to ask who, if anyone, organized the flying, the influx, the arrival, the growth, and the descent? Surely it would not have been hard for the writer to have included this information in the story. Is there a Haitian refugee program, as for the Hmong? (For example, a few Somalis chose Lewiston, ME because of low cost of living and cheap land, despite the snow. More followed. The process was organic.)

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“The Undecided Voters Are Not Who You Think They Are” [Ron Brownstein, The Atlantic]. “When most people think about a voter still trying to make up their mind, they probably imagine a person who is highly likely to vote but uncertain whether to support Harris, Trump, or a third-party candidate. Both political parties, however, are more focused on a different—and much larger—group of undecideds: potential voters who are highly likely to support Harris or Trump, but unsure if they will vote at all. Campaigns typically describe the first group of reliable but conflicted voters as persuadable; they frequently describe the second group as irregular voters. Persuadable voters get the most attention from the media, but campaigns recognize that irregular voters can loom much larger in the outcome—especially in presidential elections when more of them ultimately participate.” And: “Among the operatives and strategists that I spoke with in both parties, the best estimate is that just 4 to 7 percent of voters in the battleground states are such persuadables—people highly likely to vote but genuinely uncertain about whom they will support.” But: “Catalist, a Democratic voter-targeting firm, shared with me data rarely disclosed in public, based on its modeling, that attempt to quantify the number of infrequent voters in each of the swing states who lean strongly toward Harris or Trump. That research shows, first, that across the battleground states white people without a college degree routinely account for 70 percent or more of the Trump-leaning nonvoters; and, second, that people of color make up a big majority of Harris’s potential targets across the Sun Belt battlegrounds, as well as in Michigan. In the three big Rust Belt battlegrounds—Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—working-class white women without a college degree, Catalist’s projections show, also make up a significant share of the voters who lean Democratic but don’t vote regularly. The infrequent voters on both parties’ target list have some common characteristics, other strategists say. ‘Part of what you are seeing in this electorate is: a) a lot of anger; but b) discouragement,’ Page Gardner, a Democratic expert on voter turnout, told me. “People are discouraged about their lives and feel … I’m trying really hard and I’m not getting anywhere.” Against that backdrop, she said, the challenge for Democrats is ‘giving them some sort of agency to feel like my vote matters, because a lot of people feel that no one is paying attention to them.'” • This accords well with alert reader ChrisRUEcon’s comment yesterday: “Those ‘undecideds’ are likely Chris-Arnade-Dignity adjacent” (for “undecided,” read “irregular”). If you squint, you can see Kamala trying to make the irregular voters believe their vote counts; I’m not sure her logos, ethos, and pathos are up to the task, though. Trump taking over a MacDonald’s grill would blow that verbiage away.

“Happiness swings votes – and America’s current mood could scramble expectations of young and old voters” [The Conversation]. “Research worldwide indicates that happy people prefer keeping things the same, and they tend to vote for the incumbent in political elections. Voters who aren’t as happy are more open to anti-establishment candidates, seeing the government as a source of their discontent. These findings may help to explain the Democratic Party’s waning support among young people…. The changing political preferences of unhappy young Americans are particularly revealing when compared with those of older Americans, who have been getting happier in recent years…. The 2024 presidential candidates seem to have intuited this. The Harris campaign is all about “joy” and celebrating happiness and community. The Trump campaign adopts an angrier tone and a grievance-filled approach.” • Change (not happy) vs. More of The Same (happy). Somehow, I don’t think the irregular “dignity” voters (see above) are happy. But will they be unhappy enough to get off the couch?

Democrats en Déshabillé

“NYC Mayor Eric Adams indicted on 5 federal public corruption charges, including bribery and wire fraud” [CNN]. Well, so much for Black cop with a million-watt smile. More: “The indictment alleges illegal actions stretching back to 2014, from when he was Brooklyn Borough president. ‘For nearly a decade, Adams sought and accepted improper valuable benefits, such as luxury international travel, including from wealthy foreign businesspeople and at least one Turkish government official seeking to gain influence over him,” the indictment reads. Specifically, Adams received luxury travel and other benefits from a Turkish official and later in exchange pressured the NYC Fire Department to open a Turkish consular building without a fire inspection, the indictment says. The mayor ‘engaged in a long-running conspiracy,’ Damian Williams, the US Attorney for the Southern District of New York, said Thursday. ;Mayor Adams took these contributions even though he knew they were illegal,’ Williams said. “He knew these contributions were attempts by a Turkish government official and Turkish businessmen to buy influence with him.’ Adams said Thursday morning he was not surprised by the charges and encouraged the public to “wait to hear our defense before making any judgments,” adding he would not be changing his day-to-day responsibilities in light of the indictment.” • Turkey? Why?!

Realignment and Legitimacy

“Partisan Split on Election Integrity Gets Even Wider” [Gallup]. “– Fifty-seven percent of Americans say they are very or somewhat confident that the votes for president this year will be accurately cast and counted. That aligns with how Americans have viewed the election results most years since 2008. However, it masks Democrats becoming more confident in the process and Republicans becoming less so. This has led to a record-high 56-percentage-point partisan gap, with 84% of Democrats versus 28% of Republicans having faith in the accuracy of the vote.” • This is a big problem, to understate radically. Any Sanders voter knows Democrats have no issue with jiggering election results. Any Green voter knows that Democrats ruthlessly control all aspects of the balloting process (that being the distinctive competence of the modern political party). And given that digital = hackable, hand-marked paper ballots, hand-counted in public, are the only way to truly secure the vote (and how odd that nobody in the intelligence community, which is quietly but busily amassing the power to legitimate or delegitimate election results, supports them). All that said, Trump’s attempt to challenge the 2020 election result — driven by the kraken lady and poor old brokedown Rudy Guiliani, and taking into account exactly zero technical experts from the balloting communmity — was farcically bad; given every advantage, the AZ recount effort came up dry. So we the voters are in the unenviable position of knowing that the opportunity for fraud exists, while having no evidence that a fraud has been committed in the last Presidential election (and don’t @ me without showing a non-crank lawsuit now wending its way through the courts). And that said, threatening election workers makes me want to defend the little old church ladies who checked my name against the voter roll, and gave me an “I voted” sticker after I handed in my ballot. Very unpleasant possibilities for stochastic terrorism here, I would say. Nobody said the volatility would stop the day after election day.

“The Potential National Security Consequences of Unplanned Domestic Military Missions” [Lawfare]. The headline, combined with the “Lawfare” venue, gives me pause. What missions do they have in mind, exactly? It reads like Imperial bafflegab, but if I wanted to translate this concluding paragraph into something more menacing, it would not be hard to do: “Many interrelated factors should be carefully examined when considering the use of the military. The defense mission and core capabilities developed to carry it out often do not correspond to the skills needed to perform domestic tasks. Serious and likely harmful consequences flow from diverting the armed forces and the resources that support them to missions more appropriately tasked to domestic agencies. Those consequences include distracting the military from its main function—deterring and if necessary fighting America’s wars—and blurring the lines between what civilians are trained and resourced to do and what is expected from a professional military.”

“Speedrunning The History Of The Intelligence State” [Mike Benz, RealClearPolitics]. Good research, and you should consider reading in full. Here’s how it starts out: “We’ll sort of speed-run the essential history all the way up to the present, but we’re going to start in the year 1948. This is the sort of “Year Zero” of the founding of the intelligence capacities of the U.S. government. Instead of learning what you’d find in an ordinary history book, we’re going to start with a document that I’m curious if anyone has ever seen, called “The Inauguration of Organized Political Warfare.” Did you know that George Kennan, in 1948, wrote this memo called ‘The Inauguration of Organized Political Warfare’? George Kennan is known as a godfather figure of American diplomacy and the Central Intelligence Agency. He was famous for his ‘long telegram’ and was the chief strategist of the containment strategy against the Soviet Union during the Cold War. But before all that, when all of this was getting started, he penned this top-secret memo, which was not declassified for 60 years. It was declassified in 2005, and I think it helps elucidate the story as we’re going to proceed here. We’re going to go through this memo, but I want to give some context first. “The Inauguration of Organized Political Warfare” was written just 12 days after the Central Intelligence Agency did its first government overthrow operation, its first election-rigging event. That was on April 18, 1948, and this memo was written just 12 days after that.” • Quite an introduction. Read the whole thing, and you’ll see why I place it here. It’s hard to draw connections without creating a yarn diagram — especially in the right-wing fever swamp — but Benz avoids that here. Very clarifying.

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

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Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

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Morbidity and Mortality

“Predictors for COVID-19-Specific and Non-COVID-19-Specific Deaths: A Cohort Study in Taiwan” [Asia-Pacific Journal of Public Health (RK)]. N = 2196. From the Abtract: “Predictors for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-specific and non-COVID-19-specific deaths have not been extensively studied. This cohort study in Taiwan investigated predictors for COVID-19-specific and non-COVID-19-specific deaths among hospitalized patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. From January to July 2022, 2196 COVID-19 patients at Taipei City Hospital were consecutively recruited in this cohort study… Our study findings suggest that vaccination and Paxlovid treatment are crucial for reducing SARS-CoV-2-specific mortalities, while comorbid patients need careful monitoring to reduce non-COVID-19-specific deaths.”

Science Is Popping

“Toward a Radically Simple Multi-Modal Nasal Spray for Preventing Respiratory Infection” (PDF) [Advanced Materials]. Mouse study (sigh). See the Conflict of Interest statement (page 18). Nevertheless, very big if true. The Abstract:

Nasal sprays for pre-exposure prophylaxis against respiratory infections show limited protection (20–70%), largely due to their single mechanism of action—either neutralizing pathogens or blocking their entry at the nasal lining, and a failure to maximize the capture of respiratory droplets, allowing them to potentially rebound and reach deeper airways. This report introduces the Pathogen Capture and Neutralizing Spray (PCANS), which utilizes a multi-modal approach to enhance efficacy. PCANS coats the nasal cavity, capturing large respiratory droplets from the air, and serving as a physical barrier against a broad spectrum of viruses and bacteria, while rapidly neutralizing them with over 99.99% effectiveness. The formulation consists of excipients identified from the FDA’s Inactive Ingredient Database and Generally Recognized as Safe list to maximize efficacy for each step in the multi-modal approach. PCANS demonstrates nasal retention for up to 8 hours in mice. In a severe Influenza A mouse model, a single pre-exposure dose of PCANS leads to a >99.99% reduction in lung viral titer and ensures 100% survival, compared to 0% in the control group. PCANS suppresses pathological manifestations and offers protection for at least 4 hours. This data suggest PCANS as a promising daily-use prophylactic against respiratory infections.

And from the Conclusion:

PCANS presents a promising chemoprophylactic approach against respiratory infections. Besides its potential to act as a first line of defense against respiratory pathogens and emerging variants for which there are no vaccines available, our approach could also be potentially used as an added layer of protection with existing vaccines. Given its broad-spectrum prophylactic activity and shelf stability, we anticipate PCANS holds the potential for global distribution, especially in countries with low vaccination rates against respiratory pathogens. Alongside, the benefits of PCANS can also be extended to immunocompromised patients, high-risk individuals with co-morbidities, and vaccine-hesitant populations. Its pocket-sized spray format allows for easy portability, making it convenient to carry during social gatherings and travel. With these significant benefits, we believe PCANS will experience rapid widespread adoption, enhancing the accessibility of respiratory infection prevention.

Let’s see what the regulators think. And Big Pharma.

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TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

Wastewater

This week[1] CDC September 16

 Last Week[2] CDC (until next week):

Variants [3] CDC September 14 Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC September 14

Hospitalization
★ New York[5] New York State, data September 23:

National [6] CDC August 31:

Positivity
National[7] Walgreens September 23: Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic September 7:

Travelers Data
Positivity[9] CDC September 2: Variants[10] CDC September 2:

Deaths
Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11]CDC September 14: Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12]CDC September 14:

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, with hot spots annotated. Keeps spreading. NOTE The date seems to be wrong, but the number of sites has changed so this is new.

[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* very popular. XDV.1 flat.

[4] (ED) Down, but worth noting that Emergency Department use is now on a par with the first wave, in 2020.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Definitely down.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). The visualization suppresses what is, in percentage terms, a significant increase.

[7] (Walgreens) Big drop continues!

[8] (Cleveland) Dropping.

[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Down. Those sh*theads at CDC have changed the chart so that it doesn’t even run back to 1/21/23, as it used to, but now starts 1/1/24. There’s also no way to adjust the time range. CDC really doesn’t want you to be able to take a historical view of the pandemic, or compare one surge to another. In an any case, that’s why the shape of the curve has changed.

[10] (Travelers: Variants) What the heck is LB.1?

[11] Deaths low, but positivity up.

[12] Deaths low, ED up.

Stats Watch

GDP: “United States GDP Growth Rate” [Trading Economics]. “The US economy grew at an annualized rate of 3% in the second quarter of 2024, unchanged from the second estimate and above an upwardly revised 1.6% expansion in the first quarter.”

Employment Situation: “United States Initial Jobless Claims” [Trading Economics]. “The number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the US dropped by 4,000 from the previous week to 218,000 on the period ending September 21st, below market expectations of a rise to 225,000, and reaching a new 4-month low. Despite this decline, the claim count remained above the averages seen earlier this year, as the US labor market has softened since its post-pandemic peak, although it remains historically tight.”

Manufacturing: “United States Durable Goods Orders” [Trading Economics]. “New orders for manufactured durable goods in the US were loosely unchanged from the prior month in August of 2024, compared to the revised 9.8% surge in July which was the highest in four years, and contrasting sharply with market expectations of a 2.6% drop. The result challenged the growing pessimism over manufacturing activity in the United States, suggesting the current slowdown may be temporary.”

Manufacturing: “United States Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index” [Trading Economics]. “The Kansas City Fed’s Manufacturing Production index fell to -18 in September 2024, from 6 in the previous month, marking the lowest reading in 14 months and way below forecasts of 9.”

* * *

Manufacturing: “Boeing, workers union to resume talks on Friday” [Reuters]. So much for the “final” part of “Best And Final Offer.” “Negotiators from Boeing and the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM) will meet with federal mediators in a bid to break the deadlock, after two days of previous talks collapsed a week ago….”

Manufacturing: “Can the Machinists Save Boeing from Its Management?” [Labor Notes]. “While Boeing wailed that the strike may cause mortal wounds to the company, the Machinists union has for decades been fighting against the company’s self-wounding practices: rampant outsourcing, undermining of quality inspections, moving work to non-union shops, and hollowing out what used to be a coveted family-sustaining job. Company policies have resulted in the loss of experienced workers, production delays, mismatched and shoddy parts, and the disastrous quality lapses that led to an Alaska Airlines door plug blowout in January. It was the union that was originally responsible for pushing the separation of quality inspection from production pressures, said Steve Cabana, a quality assurance inspector for 13 years. ‘Having quality separate in the supervisory chain is the only way quality can have any teeth,’ he said. ‘I can look at a process and stop it.’ This is not true at vendors the company buys parts from, Cabana said, where they have ‘the same management system for manufacturing and quality.’ ‘That’s how the company figured it could save money by outsourcing, because other people didn’t have the same rigorous standards,’ Cabana said. ‘It’s a fragile network of suppliers who honestly aren’t compensated all that well for the work that they do,’ said Mylo Lang, an apprentice machinist at Auburn with six years at the company. ‘They’ve really been squeezing them, in fact, over the years.’ In Boeing’s own plants, the company has tried to slash inspections, too. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) requires in-person inspections by qualified workers, but in 2017 Boeing tried to speed up production by having mechanics sign off on their own work. At the company’s assembly plant in North Charleston, South Carolina, which currently has no union, the lack of worker power and input meant the company tested out cuts to quality inspections there first, around 2017, then expanded into the Puget Sound plants, where union members rallied to stop the cuts, flooding meetings and making the question a shop floor issue.”

Manufacturing: “Boeing confirms production of 737s has halted” [Fortune]. “Boeing’s production of 737 jets has come to a “complete halt” as the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM) strike continues, according to a Bank of America analyst note sent out on Tuesday. Two separate representatives for Boeing confirmed the production stoppage to Fortune. ‘Airplane production in Washington state is temporarily paused including work on the 737 MAX, 767, 777/777X, P-8, KC-46A Tanker, E-7 Wedgetail,’ a spokesperson wrote Fortune in an email Wednesday. ‘Work at our Fabrication sites in Washington and Oregon will also temporarily pause. Employees not represented by this union will continue to report to work as normal.’ Boeing’s stock fell more than 2% on Wednesday, at the time of publication. The stoppage’s full impact on actual deliveries of the planes ‘remains uncertain,’ BofA analysts wrote. But the pace has nonetheless ‘slowed significantly.’ Only two 737s have been delivered in the last week, which they say is ‘well below normal levels.’ As for the 787 jets—a different, less embattled model—Boeing has made zero deliveries over the past week, and has only delivered two in all of September. But BofA ‘expects Boeing to maintain the same levels of rollouts compared to last month” because the assembly line tasked with 787 production is ‘mainly unaffected by unions.’ As a result, BofA maintained its rating on the stock as neutral.” • That “unaffected by unions” (carbon fibre) makes me think. I believe Boeing promised to make the next aircraft, the “797,” in Seattle, presumbly also from carbon fibre, if they began it during the life of the contract currently being negotiated. But did Boeing promise the 797 would be built with union labor? Readers?

Manufacturing: “Spirit Aerosystems beginning to see effects of Boeing strikes – reports” [Airport Technology]. “Boeing parts supplier Spirit AeroSystems has reportedly warned it may begin furloughing employees soon if the strikes at the aircraft manufacturer’s production plants continue much longer. The supplier, which is set to fall back under Boeing’s control next year, is currently using the lull in work at the aircraft factories to address a backlog of orders but will soon begin seeing the effects of the work stoppage.”

Manufacturing: “Boeing strike squeezes California aerospace suppliers, including Independent Forge in Orange” [Orange County Register]. “Machine tool and metal shops across the region are feeling the effects of the Boeing strike, as is a complex supply chain that stretches across the world…. ‘This could be devastating for us,’ said Andrew Flores, president of Independent Forge Co. Inc. ‘Forgings are the start of most parts made in the aviation business, and that’s the first thing they want to stop.’… The company also is worried about a second strike that emerged earlier this week when unionized machinists with a general aviation unit owned by Textron Corp. in Kansas walked off their jobs for higher wages and benefits, Flores said.” • Hmm. Only Textron, then?

Manufacturing: “Boeing strike leaves Asian airlines sweating on plane deliveries” [The Business Times]. “The Seattle factory strike crippling production at Boeing is triggering delays to 737 Max deliveries across Asia, a region that’s already home to some of the biggest order backlogs for the flagship aircraft. The US manufacturer is due to hand over 981 Max jets to carriers in Asia, led by Air India and Indonesia’s Lion Air, by 2030, according to data from Cirium. That’s close to one-third of all scheduled deliveries of the aircraft worldwide over that period. But with Boeing at loggerheads with the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers, which represents some 33,000 Boeing employees who have been striking for almost two weeks, concerns are escalating about the reliability of the plane pipeline. Responding to queries from Bloomberg News, Korean Air Lines, Vietjet Aviation and Japan Airlines said they were either suffering delivery delays due to the strike, expecting planes to arrive late or concerned about handover dates slipping. Others including Singapore Airlines said they were working with Boeing on delivery schedules in light of the factory shutdown.

Manufacturing: “Senators want to see major changes at Boeing. The FAA says that could take years” [Politico]. “The head of the Federal Aviation Administration warned senators Wednesday that ensuring troubled planemaker Boeing rights its ship will take years — not months — even with the FAA looking over its shoulder…. But [FAA Administrator Mike Whitaker] said that while Boeing has improved on short-term challenges in its manufacturing lines, ‘[we] would be kidding ourselves to think you can change 170,000 people, culture in 18 months — so it’s going to be a long haul.'”

Tech: “Millions of Vehicles Could Be Hacked and Tracked Thanks to a Simple Website Bug” [Wired].

* * *

Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 67 Greed (previous close: 65 Greed) [CNN]. One week ago: 60 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Sep 25 at 1:55:41 PM ET.

The Current Cinema

Coppola’s Megalopolis:

Universal derision from the reviewers, which intrigues me. Has anyone seen it?

Gallery

Quite modern:

Class Warfare

“Amazon Logistics under investigation for alleged labor violations” [Seattle Times]. “Seattle’s Office of Labor Standards is investigating Amazon Logistics — the company’s vast network of delivery services — for alleged violations of labor laws, including the city’s ordinance requiring paid sick time for gig workers that went into effect this year. The investigation appears focused on Amazon’s Flex drivers, who operate like gig workers and make deliveries for the company using their own vehicles and on their own schedule.”

News of the Wired

“The history of telecoms is at an end” [Intermedia]. The deck: “In his latest book, William Webb argues that we mostly have all the connectivity we need. The telecoms industry needs to refocus away from technical innovation and towards efficiency. Governments and regulators, he says, will need a new mindset.” • Perhaps even too much.

“The power of leisure: How everyday hobbies stop cognitive decline” [Study Finds]. “In community centers across the country, seniors gather for book clubs, chess matches, and art classes. These social hubs of mental stimulation may be more than just pleasant diversions – they could be unofficial cognitive health clinics, according to new research. The study suggests that engaging in cognitively stimulating leisure activities (CSLAs) might be key to preserving cognitive function in older adults with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). This research offers hope for those looking to stave off cognitive decline and potentially reduce their risk of developing dementia.” • Maybe I should stop reading Model Railroader and build a layout, Perky Pat-style. Not.

* * *

Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From: JG:

JG writes: “My old neighbor gave me the Roseville pitcher decorated with an abstract landscape and a chain of bows in relief. The mesh pattern on the vase comes from the screen window which provided the lighting on the subject. The zinnias came from another kind neighbor.” A lovely “pitcher” indeed!

* * *

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About Lambert Strether

Readers, I have had a correspondent characterize my views as realistic cynical. Let me briefly explain them. I believe in universal programs that provide concrete material benefits, especially to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime example, but tuition-free college and a Post Office Bank also fall under this heading. So do a Jobs Guarantee and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can deliver on such programs, because the two are different flavors of neoliberalism (“Because markets”). I don’t much care about the “ism” that delivers the benefits, although whichever one does have to put common humanity first, as opposed to markets. Could be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don’t much care, as long as the benefits are delivered. To me, the key issue — and this is why Medicare for All is always first with me — is the tens of thousands of excess “deaths from despair,” as described by the Case-Deaton study, and other recent studies. That enormous body count makes Medicare for All, at the very least, a moral and strategic imperative. And that level of suffering and organic damage makes the concerns of identity politics — even the worthy fight to help the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton’s wars created — bright shiny objects by comparison. Hence my frustration with the news flow — currently in my view the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the other by out-of-power liberals and their allies in the State and in the press — a news flow that constantly forces me to focus on matters that I regard as of secondary importance to the excess deaths. What kind of political economy is it that halts or even reverses the increases in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I am also very hopeful that the continuing destruction of both party establishments will open the space for voices supporting programs similar to those I have listed; let’s call such voices “the left.” Volatility creates opportunity, especially if the Democrat establishment, which puts markets first and opposes all such programs, isn’t allowed to get back into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I love the tactical level, and secretly love even the horse race, since I’ve been blogging about it daily for fourteen years, but everything I write has this perspective at the back of it.

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87 comments

  1. IM Doc

    We have seen Megalopolis. It is a modern retelling of the events of The Cataline Conspiracy during the death throes of the Roman Republic. Please note – I am referring to the SECOND Cataline Conspiracy, not the first.

    It was an exceptionally well done movie technically. The morals and lessons it was trying to convey about our own time were there for all to see. I can see how elite critics would find it very ugly and disheartening – they often act with derision towards anything that points out flaws in our current machine.

    There were even some subtle jabs at culture – the take on transgenderism/transvestism would be one that would make thinkers like Camille Paglia proud. As she has often pointed out, historically, the appearance of transgenderism and androgyny in cultures ( Not homosexuality ) often is a very ominous sign of their coming doom.

    Everyone got what they had coming at the end – just like in real life more than 2000 years ago.

    I found the film fascinating – but I suspect if you are not a Roman History junkie – or deeply involved in political theory – much of the subtle messaging may go right over your head – again – most critics we have today know nothing of history – it is not surprising they did not like it.

    FYI – We saw this the day after there was a screening of the 1970s Caligula. That film has been known as a notorious disaster since it came out. This new release was a complete remaking of that film – with actual stock from the original production. I will say it too was very impressive – and was nothing like the 1970s version. I suspect this new imagining of that film is far more likely what Gore Vidal, Helen Mirren, Malcolm McDowell and many others thought they were signing up for back then.

    1. Mark Gisleson

      As near as I can tell, there are no leaked copies of Megalopolis available online. The MPAA went after industry insiders hard and seems to have shut off the pipeline of new movies leaking well before hitting the theaters.

      Megalopolis the anime series is widely available.

      FYI – I saw the original Caligula in the theater accompanied by two women. I had very high hopes for that evening but instead we left the theater never wanting to have sex again.

      1. Marvin Stone

        After watching Hollywood backing the Kamaleon, and therefore the Gaza invasion, Ukraine etc, I am more than interested in obtaining bootleg copies of everything. Fuck them.

    2. Carolinian

      The other night I rewatched Godfather 2 and was once again bowled over by the achievement of it. It not only realizes that ultimate movie goal (“in a world” as they say in the trailers) but, unlike almost all movies now, had something serious on its mind. Coppola’s career ever since has been a very mixed bag due to the dilemma all artists face: how do you top yourself? I don’t go to theaters much any more but will catch up with Megalopolis at some point.

      1. Deborah Kazazis

        Agreed. I had a similar experience watching Godfather I this summer. Planning to view Godfather 2 and 3 this fall, separately – yes, they form part of a trilogy but each can and should stand on its own as a masterpiece – in order to rethink their overall mastery of their times and their genre.

    3. i just don't like the gravy

      Thanks for the review Doc. Now I want to see it.

      Unfortunately here in Outer Heaven there is not a theater for miles. I suppose I must wander into the moss in search of an amanita. With a little remote viewing I may not even need buy a ticket.

      Is there a theater you would recommend? Preferably one with little footfall, lest they see my shadow.

    4. Louis Fyne

      Thanks for the review. The story of the making of the film is fascinating as well.

      this is Coppola’s passion project, at least three decades in the making….and funded partly by the sale of a share of Francis’s share of the family winery.

  2. midtownwageslave

    Re: The power of leisure: How everyday hobbies stop cognitive decline”

    This sounds like a grand opportunity in Kamala’s opportunity economy:

    Step 1) qualify for one of Kamala’s $50k grants (applicant must be person of color, first born, and have 10 yrs experience starting businesses in economically depressed neighborhoods)

    Step 2) use grant monies to open long covid treatment centers for “cognitive rejuvenation” ( Bingo Halls) and staff them with class-protected employees for tax breaks, over-bill medicare, steal employee wages, and payoff local politicians for “patient” referrals.

    Step 3) blame poor people for bad things that happen.

    What a time to be alive.

  3. IM Doc

    And I just cannot help it, I was so upset by what I saw of the MSNBC interview of Harris last night – that I have been troubled all day.

    First of all – what on earth was the whole wood shop backdrop for? Is that a joke? My granddad has a better looking shop than that – Seriously – what was that all about?

    I now know for sure I will not be voting for her at all. That was the end.

    One evasion and blow off after the other. But my favorite was the “holistic” sequence of gobbledy gook when she was asked about inflation. I have not a clue what she was even trying to say.

    I do have a question back for her though about what I as a physician am seeing so many of my patients go through –

    “Holistically, Ms. Harris, I have already this month seen 7 young Type I DM patients with families and small kids, who are holistically struggling to pay the bills. In a very holistic way, the insane cost of their insulin is causing them to holistically not pay for other bills in their household and in a very very holistic manner, a few of them are actually having to ration their insulin – causing their A1c to be run at 8 or 9 instead of the 6 or 7. Holistically, Donald Trump did actually do something about this insane insulin expense during his last few months in office. But in a very holistic manner – your administration stopped those efforts with an executive order before the first sundown of your term. You holistically talk about doing something about it all the time – but holistically, every type of insulin is now more expensive for these kids then when you did your supposed holistic plan went through last year. Mrs. Harris – holistically – what do you expect to do about this issue for these kids that may actually work this time, holistically, of course. This is especially holistic, Mrs Harris, because as recently as 10 years ago, insulin was no more than 10 dollars a month. Now the minimum is often 400-500 for these Type I DM who have huge doses. What holistically are you going to do? Why are we allowing something that used to be as cheap as sawdust to holistically bankrupt young families?

    I was whomperjawed. I just simply cannot believe this is what we have running as a Dem. My grandparents are howling and rolling in their grave.

    This is now medical student interview season – it will soon be on us. I am slated to do about 60 of these over the late fall and early winter. I ask these college seniors very probing and very tough questions. They will after all have people’s lives in their hands. And what matters to me is not really what they say – but how they handle conflict and adversity and questioning. It is after all a job interview, for one of the most difficult jobs there is.

    I view this MSNBC fiasco the same way – this is a job interview. Her finger could potentially be on the button in a few short months. And I would never ever tolerate this kind of performance from any medical school applicant – if that appeared to me in an interview – I would make certain they were done.

    How is this any different? My God – I just cannot believe this.

    1. Carolinian

      I think from the Dem perspective whether Harris is remotely qualified to be president is irrelevant. After all it’s not as though Biden has been running things for the past coupe of years (at least). They just need a place holder.

      And from a “the rest of us” perspective perhaps Trump doesn’t matter either. We have to get rid of Blinken, Sullivan etc by any means possible. If Trump comes up with off the wall policies then it will be a lot easier to put the brakes on him than on Harris and her deep state backers.

    2. Psyched

      HARRIS: Well, if you are hardworking, if you have the dreams and the ambitions and the aspirations of what I believe you do, you’re in my plan.

      So I guess if you are disabled like me, I am not in her plan and hurry up and die?

      1. Lena

        This was my reaction as a terminally ill person as well. Is Harris running to manage a workforce? I thought she was running for president. Silly me. I’ll go die now so her plan can be successful.

        1. Vicky Cookies

          Yes, she is. Despite not being elected to be the president of the economy, that’s what she’s running for, as donors don’t represent we disabled or otherwise unemployed.

          You say you’re terminally ill. I wonder how you’re set up, and if you have what you need, both materially and when it comes to people to talk to. If you’d be accepting of it, I’d enjoy learning about you and your life, and giving what I can! Fellow NC commentator, you are not alone!

          1. Randall Flagg

            I second that. If we aren’t trying to help our fellow humans, than what are we really doing around here?

            1. hk

              I wonder if there is a way to do some kind of private chat. I doubt people will want to let loose too many details about themselves in public view, in a forum.

      2. Lambert Strether Post author

        Kamala also says: “Hard work is good work” (as part of her GOTV exhortations).

        That’s not so, and the working class knows it, and especially the “dignity” (irregular) voters know it.

        Sometimes hard work is just bad. Ill-paid, dangerous, degrading. Like delivering food in the rain and snow to WFH PMCs during a pandemic, say.

        Classic bougie sloganeering from Kamala.

        Adding, see Rule #2.

            1. rowlf

              Awkward

              National Results – US
              35,867 Teamsters participated
              Harris Trump Other
              % of Votes 34.0% 59.6% 2.0%

              Maybe the International Association of Machinists can share their information. They represent many workers in the defense industry. https://www.goiam.org/

              1. hk

                They have detailed state by state results, too. The short is that, in no state (DC being the only exception), did Harris lead Trump. Only in CA, did she even come close. Yet, in almost every state, Biden outpolled Trump just before “the debate.”. Granted, there are many issues trying to extrapolate from this set of datums, but there’s something very interesting going on here.

        2. Kurtismayfield37

          Nevermind the fact that the US rewards capital and investment way more than hard work. The asset inflation of the past five years has almost tripled my paper wealth, yet my salary has increased 20%. What is being rewarded?

      1. judy2shoes

        I love how Walter Kirn described Kamala’s verbiage after watching her performance on Oprah. He said her words were “impeccably meaningless…impeccably.” I couldn’t agree more.

    4. Socal Rhino

      I take some solace from the apparent distance that our presidents are being kept from actual levers of power.

    5. flora

      As someone recently said, If the blob and the media can push her across the finish line then what can’t they do? A candidate made out of whole cloth who publicly speaks in gibberish and whose approval ratings only 3 months ago were so low it was a joke.

      And now, you will not be pleased to learn, the US Congress is considering a bill to make congressional replacements by appointing instead of electing in the aftermath of a theoretical mass casualty event. (Do they know something?) About as democratic as slotting in KH with no election, only a process. Really glad everyone is trying to tone down the rhetoric. (right.)

      https://americanmilitarynews.com/2024/09/lawmakers-propose-amendment-to-address-mass-casualty-events-amid-rising-political-tension/

      1. flora

        Fortunately, ratifying a Constitutional amendment requires 34 states to vote for ratification. Still, what are they thinking? This wasn’t done in either 20th C world wars, not done during the 19th C Civil War. Why is the first thought about ways to further disenfranchise citizens because emergency? / hmmmm

    6. Not Qualified to Comment

      I now know for sure I will not be voting for her at all. That was the end.

      Not being American I don’t get a say, tho’ I will say that it’s a travesty that these two, Harris and Trump, have emerged as the choice and (like Biden making a fool of himself addressing the UN last Tuesday) reduces the US to an object of contempt and/or pity to most of the rest of the world. However the bottom line for me would be that I believe Harris would submit herself for re-election in 2028 while I’m not as confident of that were her opponent to win!

      For those who in all conscience and quite understandably, declare they can’t/won’t vote for either I would remind them that in the quite legitimate elections to the Reichstag in the 1930’s a certain AH never won more than 37% of the vote but as only 51% of the electorate actually voted, either through apathy or disgust at what was on offer, he was able to claim 75% support from the German people and demand power. And we all know what that led to.

      Not voting, even if it has to be for the least worse (as you perceive it), opens the door to the manipulative and the snake-tongued charlatan who can inspire a minority – and in a democracy if you don’t vote, you can’t complain at what it delivers.

      1. Acacia

        Yeah, yeah. Trump is the next Hitler, and we’ll vote him in. That’s what the TDS-addled media keeps telling us too. Yawn.

        1. Kurtismayfield37@gmail.com

          Literally voting Dem for two issues.. Linda Khan and TSC. I have no doubt that either candidates will help me much nor stop the war machine. My voting does little to affect the system which has grown too powerful for us mere voters to change.

  4. Clarissa

    Scabies torture in Israeli prisons? Add to many millions of bodies racked up in Iraqquistan, Gaza and Ukraine. Absolute and total disgust with the administration. Ukraine, Gaza, Lebanon, the ineptitude and politicalization of justice. Flirting with nuclear war for thwarted business opportunities?

    Our family has had it. Voting is a ways off. The only thing of recognized value we apparently offer to The Establishment is going into debt and buying more stuff.

    Therefore, we’re withdrawing from commercial life, selling or giving away everything non-essential and boycotting the marketplace except for food and energy.

    Think that’s the last real vote that people have today. Where, how and whether they spend money and pay taxes or not. Use it or lose it and everything else.

    1. nyleta

      Yes, this is a decision a lot of people are going to have to make. What does a citizen of lifelong good standing do when the power structures of their country ( which were once a source of good ) take the country in a direction completely antithetical to their education and upbringing at the behest of outside powers ?

      Depending on personal circumstances this can be very difficult, endangering your hostages to fortune. Some of us are in a better place than others but we have started by cutting out as much digitisation as possible. They are working hard to make this as impossible as they can in the future because digitisation is the basis of virtual reality in all parts of life. Apart from the obvious we are paying people we trust to operate accounts we would once have operated ourselves and started accumulating semi-precious stuff and what could be considered survival goods in a semi-urban setting without power. Sooner or later we envision getting out of the city we are in, it is just unsustainable in less than perfect conditions. Some are bugging out overseas but whatever you do I wish you the best of luck.

    2. Amfortas the Hippie

      aye.
      i’m about as unplugged as an american can get…grocery bill(almost all staples like olive oil i cant produce myself):$100.
      lite bill(working on off grid):maybe $100 for 2 houses and a bar.
      no debt, no credit, grow the majority of what i eat, build with trash, barely drive…and yet i am still plugged in enough for it to matter.
      it is incredibly hard to secede, individually and informally/de facto,lol.
      what wife and i had always planned for was to eventually have a village out here.
      but then she died, and boys grew up and ran off…and nobody expects the kind of future i expect.
      so you run into the same old problem of all settler/colonialists/secessionists…finding the others.
      i figured out long ago that this essentially doomer prep operation was identical to what i was gonna need due to my particular disability…as well as my dislike of having to be among the Mundanes for more than an hour or two(its exhausting).
      so dual purpose doomer prep.
      thank dog i went ahead with it…because if i hadnt, id be screwed right about now.

  5. aleph_0

    So about 18 months ago, Lambert gave us a great post rounding up covid prophylactics.

    I’m going to get to be more exposed than I’d like somewhat soon, and I was wondering if anyone knows of changes and updates on some of the products or science here in terms of nasal sprays they use, or is Enovid still peoples’ go to?

  6. Victor Sciamarelli

    Boeing would have a better relationship with its workers, and customers, if management acted like it cared about workers and the future of the company rather than stock holders.
    According to NYU/Stern, “Boeing’s leaders delivered gushers of cash to shareholders through stock buybacks and dividends — $68 billion since 2010, according to Melius Research — rather than investing in future all-new airplanes, such as pulling forward airline cash advances.”
    Moreover, “The arc of Boeing’s fall can be traced back a quarter century, to when its leaders elevated the interests of shareholders above all others, said Richard Aboulafia, industry analyst with AeroDynamic Advisory.”
    According to Green Alpha Investments, “It soon emerged that Boeing had spent a staggering $43 billion on stock buybacks between 2013 and 2019 – more than its total profits during that period – while allegedly skimping on safety and ignoring design flaws.”

    1. JMH

      Am I wrong to look at stock buybacks, the resulting huge executive paydays and fat dividends for the investors as a moderately sophisticated version of skimming?

    2. The Rev Kev

      Are those shareholders who get all this money from Boeing via those stock buybacks the same sort of people that would be flying Boeing aircraft? Methinks that they are not so much shareholders as institutional shareholders so would be flying by private jets.

  7. Ranger Rick

    The “end of telecom innovation” is a bit of an eye roller especially when the first reference is to the Fukuyama book now very much disproven by events. Right now they’re working on turning every cellphone into a satellite phone! Jevons Paradox is definitely in full effect, and anticipating a plateau in user demand based on the attention economy alone is insufficient to explain why one expects there to be no more need for innovation (as in faster and more available bandwidth). The author then devotes a section to the pressing problem of ubiquity and efficiency, and this is where the main thrust and the strongest argument of the article lies: the industry can innovate all it likes, but if no one can use the new tech then there really isn’t a point in developing it. 5G is getting close to a decade old and it has yet to see much use.

    1. Ben Panga

      Fukuyama’s quote aged as well as that attributed to Victorian Lord Kelvin shortly before Einstein and then QM upended physics:

      “There is nothing new to be discovered in physics now. All that remains is more and more precise measurement.”

      On connectivity, I often reflect that I was happier and much more mentally at peace before the internet came along. We are the generation(s) that straddle two eras, and I think it’s been damaging.

      1. hk

        It’s worth remembering that between Lord Kelvin amd QM (and the general theory) came the Great War.

        The Great War made people rethink a lot of things, including physics….

  8. Lee

    “Toward a Radically Simple Multi-Modal Nasal Spray for Preventing Respiratory Infection” (PDF) [Advanced Materials]. Mouse study (sigh). See the Conflict of Interest statement (page 18). Nevertheless, very big if true.

    PCANS demonstrates nasal retention for up to 8 hours in mice. In a severe Influenza A mouse model, a single pre-exposure dose of PCANS leads to a >99.99% reduction in lung viral titer and ensures 100% survival, compared to 0% in the control group. PCANS suppresses pathological manifestations and offers protection for at least 4 hours. This data suggest PCANS as a promising daily-use prophylactic against respiratory infections.

    There’s at least one product, Profi, currently on the market that claims to be an effective PCAN. But then there’s the conflict of interest issue to consider.

    Why Profi™?

    Germs are airborne, spreading colds and respiratory issues from person to person through the air.

    Formulated by Harvard Medical School scientists, Profi™ helps to proactively block and eliminate inhaled airborne germs. The best part? It’s drug-free and safe for daily use. Simply spray in each nostril before crowds and travel for peace of mind and confidence.

      1. Amfortas the Hippie

        yeah. i locked on to that when they came out with that vitamin cocktail that included zinc.
        i keep some in the truck…altho, about half the time, in getting the damned safety plastic off, i somehow manage to mangle the spraying apparatus,lol.
        so i also keep a lil jar of q-tips in the truck, too…as applicators.

  9. Psyched

    GDP: “United States GDP Growth Rate” [Trading Economics]. “The US economy grew at an annualized rate of 3% in the second quarter of 2024, unchanged from the second estimate and above an upwardly revised 1.6% expansion in the first quarter.”

    Pardon my Economics, but does this not mean it is the wrong time for the FED to be cutting rates? (Or the right time if you are “anyone but Trump”*.

    *I am not a Trump fan.

    1. Kurtismayfield

      Now that the Fed’s battle with labor costs is over, they need to do something to support the enormous asset inflation of the past five years. Hence the rate cuts.

  10. Lambert Strether Post author

    I added orts and scraps awhile back, though I rushed on to the next thing and forgot to say.

    Please read the material under “Realignment and Legitimacy” carefully. Again, there’s no reason to imagine that the volatility stops with election day.

    Adding, “The Potential National Security Consequences of Unplanned Domestic Military Missions” is genuinely horrific, and has a whole theory of the State that throws “to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity” a little out of whack.

    It’s even more horrific read in conjunction with the Benz piece that follows.

    1. Amfortas the Hippie

      yeah. i already read the benz thing…comports with what my dad told me when he was talkative those 3 or 4 times(former DIA, last 2 or 3 years of LBJ).
      ill hafta save the other thing for the early…too meaty for this late in the day, i can tell already.
      the problem is…that yer average ordinary american simply doesnt want to believe all this kind of thing…doesnt even want to hear about it.
      that is, unless theyre Q or fake moonlandings or alien grays or all about how air elementals are gonna save us.
      all of that latter likely has some real human source, in the wild…but they are part and parcel of the Mindf&ck that benz is delineating.
      it has been a gigantic success.

    2. Cat Burglar

      Yes, the Lawfare article — because it is a Brookings product, a prima facie assumption is that it is a pay-to-play piece.

      Little did we know that The Founders made military supremacy in the Western Pacific a primary function of the federal government.

      Author McCusker flubs it by misreading the Constitution right off — that’s why she links to a Heritage Foundation article instead of the actual text that you quote. You’d think somebody with a Political Philosophy BA from UTexas (who only took five years to spring into a job repping before Congress for Argonne National Labs, and later got into some highly technical positions in the Defense Department — like Comptroller! — on the strength of that BA), you’d think she’d know better.

      Or maybe she does. She can count, anyway — it is the same old case for more money for war, couched in a plea to cost shift things like fuel spill cleanups to the EPA budget and out of the DOD. Does she also want to spin off fundamental federal responsibilities like the Rheinblick Military Golf Course? My hunch is that she wants to offload functions to other agencies, where the fuel spill cleanups can go unfunded. She is unhappy that constant threat inflation has led to everything under the sun being considered a national security issue — hands off my money!

      Somebody up high is getting anxious. They’ve realized they’ve bitten off more than they can chew by taking on Russia, China, and maybe most people in the Mideast. It is going to require a bigger military and economic mobilization to pull off global primacy than they thought it was going to take. She notes our security spending to GDP ratio is historically low, so get ready!

      The Kennan memorandum on Political Warfare is like a smoking gun, an ur-text of US imperialism. No wonder that a memo written in 1948 wasn’t declassified until 2005, and, even then, there are still parts they won’t let us read now! It is the foreign policy equivalent of the Powell Memorandum, and it should be useful piece of evidence in political discussions.

      1. Amfortas the Hippie

        just plowed through all that BS,lol.
        so a trillion dollars a year…and they just caint get by?
        and thats to say nothing about things like the continuing and perpetual inability to pass an audit…rumsfelds missing $2 trillion on 9-10-2001…and period disclosures, never picked up by MSM, about all that other money they cannot account for.
        million dollar toilet seats…planes that cant fly in the rain…ships that apparently arent seaworthy…and what about all the graft and corruption in the MIC?
        and all that is off the top of my head at 4:30am,lol…
        i didnt hafta do a google search about DoD spending craziness..

        for all my working life, bosses(mostly gop-ers) told me that if i cant live within my means(usually minwage or just a lil bit more)…then i needed to man up and cut some fat…tighten my belt…

        1. debug

          Awl you need is a good leather punch to make a new tighter notch in the old belt. You know, the one that came with yer bootstraps.

          I admit I couldn’t stomach reading the article after seeing the comments. That’s one of the advantages I find in following the commentariat. No need to waste time on that one.

          What is not mentioned in the comments here is the huge secret projects budget. ECOMCON?

  11. Steve H.

    > Is it too much to ask who, if anyone, organized the flying, the influx, the arrival, the growth, and the descent? Surely it would not have been hard for the writer to have included this information in the story. Is there a Haitian refugee program, as for the Hmong?

    Seems relevant:

    >> Eric Weinstein was employed by the UN to produce a document entitled: ‘Migration for the Benefit of All: Towards a New Paradigm of Economic Immigration’ Weinstein was aware of the damage which economic migration was to do to the native populations in places such as the United States and the United Kingdom. In one part of the document he produced for this nefarious United Nations agenda entitled, “Preference for migrants, undercutting of natives”, Weinstein wrote:

    >> “When migrant and native workers of comparable value to an employer are asked to compete, it is to be expected that the employer will take the applicant who costs him/her less. If, however, the respective terms of employment of the native and the migrant workers differ considerably, the employer may develop a preference between otherwise equal candidates. If migrant workers are not permitted to seek alternative work in the host country, then their “company loyalty” is reduced to a matter of law and regulation. In such circumstances, employers know that they will not have to earn migrant worker loyalty with the expenditure of resources that would be needed in the case of native workers. Thus it is to be expected that in systems tethering migrant workers to their employer-sponsors, some migrants will out-compete natives of comparable or greater value simply by virtue of the terms of employment set by the MWP. Since this is precipitated by a rational market response on the part of native employers, this consequence must be seen as a natural, if unfortunate, by-product of direct migrant sponsorship.”

    Johnny Vedmore, via Mathew Crawford (hat-tip Janet).

    p.s. Springfield rents have jumped 27% in one year.

    2. Martin Oline

      I worked for a Jewelry manufacturer for a while in Marin Co., CA in 1980. They employed large numbers of the Vietnamese ‘boat people’. I was told one half of their wages were subsidized by the Feds for the first year and they were paid minimum wage. They basically would meet them at the docks to hire them. The French would call them entremanures.

    3. lambert strether

      These are all generalities (good ones, to be sure). What I want to know is the precise legal/administrative mechanism by which these internal population transfers are made. Is everything like Desantis sending a busload to Martha’s Vineyard?

  12. Mirjonray

    Thank you so much for posting the XTweet featuring the head-scratching Iranian animated video about the “operation to eliminate Trump”. I’ve been waiting for a while to post this link from Cheech and Chong’s Next Movie where PeeWee Herman says at approximately the 2:25 mark, “Look, I think they’re Iranians.”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eB6CIWyvMdM

    1. Lambert Strether Post author

      > the head-scratching Iranian animated video

      IIRC, the organs of state security briefed Trump that the Iranians were planning to assassinate him. Perhaps this video was their intel!

      If I were Trump, I would conclude from that briefing that somebody was indeed trying to assassinate me — nothing new there! — but certainly not the Iranians (Secret Service agent, thinking hard: “Hmm, towels…”).

      1. Dermot O Connor

        Video didn’t play for me, but I think I get the gist from the comments.

        Only simple explanation I can imagine is that the attempted shooter saw it, thought “That looks like a good idea” and attempted to execute it.

    2. Lunker Walleye

      I remember seeing this video way back when. Wonder which of the alphabets created it and leaked it to RT. Who can believe these innuendos about Iran?

  13. Tom Stone

    I will never forget how tough Harris was on One West Bank and Steve Mnuchin, Rob Bonta couldn’t have been any tougher !.

    As to Trump, I doubt he will survive to be sworn in if he wins and it wouldn’t surprise me if he was assassinated before the election.
    The hysteria is over the top among those with TDS who will still speak to me, it is frightening to see so many descend into brainless terror over the prospect of Trump winning in November.

  14. Lambert Strether Post author

    > it wouldn’t surprise me if he was assassinated before the election.

    Democrat brain geniuses seem to think that calling Trump a coward — they are, I have read somewhere, actually wearing chicken costumes to Trump appearances — is a terrific idea. This after two assassination attempts, and he’s still on the trail. I don’t love Trump, and he’s certainly a lot of things, but a coward isn’t one of them.

  15. Martin Oline

    Regarding the “NYC Mayor Eric Adams indicted on 5 federal public corruption charges, including bribery and wire fraud” story. I heard on the news (Axios) that “former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo was already signaling to allies that he was preparing to run for mayor, according to two people familiar with the matter.”
    I think he would win easily. New Yorkers hold most of the ‘fly over’ country in disdain but there is one class of people they hate even more: fellow New Yorkers. Andy has killed more than 15,000 people from New York already with his Covid policies and the voters of New York will support him to do even more I’m sure. Andy’s record here

    1. Pat

      This isn’t Andy’s first run at redemption. True, there have been a couple of years more for memories to fade, but that period is like a scab that itches here. Considering the abject stupidity that so many of my fellow NYers, especially here in the city, have shown I do not entirely reject his chances but even in the weak field that is the announced mayoral primary candidates there appears little enthusiasm for him.

      In some ways Andy was the quieter classier version of Adams. Both were the future of the Democrats, until they weren’t. And both have made NYers look stupid. Cuomo might not have been indicted, but this is one where the coverup didn’t actually clear him with the public. More for embarrassing them than for his actual very real crimes unfortunately. But it is still probably enough to make this run a failure as well.

  16. CA

    https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202409/26/WS66f5505ba310f1265a1c513b.html

    September 26, 2024

    COVID-19 variants becoming immune-evasive, China CDC says
    By Wang Xiaoyu

    The dominant COVID-19 variants in China have not shown significant changes in their pathogenicity, but novel strains are becoming increasingly immune-evasive, the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention said on Thursday.

    Globally, three subvariants of the JN.1 strain — KP.3.1.1, KP.3 and LB.1 — are the most prevalent. In China, major strains in circulation belong to families of XDV and JN.1, and the proportion of JN.1 infections is on the rise.

    “We have not observed obvious changes in the pathogenicity of offshoots of XDV and JN.1,” the China CDC said. “The majority of domestic infections with XDV and JN.1 are asymptomatic or only exhibit mild symptoms.”

    The China CDC added that emerging strains are evolving to become more capable of evading existing immunity and the KP.3 strain is likely to become the dominant strain in the future.

    “The prevalence of KP.3 in China is low, but its proportion is rising gradually, and the strain will likely circulate simultaneously with or compete with other major strains such as KP.2 and LB.1 in the future,” it said.

  17. The Rev Kev

    “Mike Benz: Speedrunning The History Of The Intelligence State”

    ‘About $250 million of U.S. taxpayer money was spent to prop up our preferred candidate. The CIA made use of off-the-books sources of funding to finance it. Bags of money were delivered to selected politicians to pay for their political expenses, campaign expenses, posters, and pamphlets. We threatened the Italian government that aid money from the U.S. would be withheld if the wrong person got elected. Newly created CIA proprietary media organizations like Voice of America Radio and Radio Free Europe set up a vast spawn of Italian news networks to create a surround sound inside that country to broadcast U.S. propaganda and messaging. We funneled aid money through churches and charity fronts to mafia and union street muscle. We worked with Hollywood to project Greta Garbo films and others into the country.’

    Still using the same playbook all these decades later. With upgraded techniques like using NGOs as CIA cut-outs and the internet over Greta Garbo, this is what they are trying to do to Georgia for example.

    1. Cat Burglar

      The Kennan Memo is a handbook for everything they did. Really a useful piece of evidence. Lambert really hit one out of the park this time.

  18. Gulag

    I am a sceptic by nature, but the Mike Benz speech on the history of the intelligence state and the operational methods it used against first, the New Left and now, the Populist Right is the best brief summary I have ever read of the overt and covert institutions now running American foreign policy and American society.

    I am 81 years old and was an active participant in the New Left of the 1960s and his characterization of what is happening to the contemporary populist right in 2024 is, in my opinion, on the money:

    “I urge you throughout this to remember that when you hear “/xommunist” or “fascist” in the historical data points we’re going to go over, understand that in the post-2016 world all this infrastructure has been repurposed to take out populism….When you hear them say “the Communists have won,” today they use the exact same language to describe stopping the rise of populism and stopping populist political candidates.”

  20. Young

    I finally understood Kamala’s economic plan:

    When she gets full control, she will do nothing except she will give the opportunity to economy to fix itself holistically.

    Maybe John Kerry should ask his wife to launch Holistic brand salad dressing line in support of Kamala.

  21. Jason Boxman

    Heh. The fix is in.

    They point to a number of brightening public polls that show that Mr. Trump’s once-daunting lead is eroding on the critical question of whom voters trust most on the economy. At the same time, there are economic atmospherics working in her favor with the stock market hitting record highs, gas prices dropping and the Federal Reserve slashing interest rates for the first time in four years.

    Funny how stocks, interest rates, and gas seemingly align for Harris. And soon early voting will commence.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/26/us/politics/trump-harris-economy.html

    1. Late Introvert

      And much less funny, it will all reverse after her coronation, and the liberals will go back to sleep.

  22. debug

    Nothing would thrill me more than to see DT trying to run a 12-6 turn-lay on the grill at McD’s during lunch rush.

    1. Brian Beijer

      “a 12-6 turn-lay”

      As soon as I read those words, my mind rushed back 40 years to when I was a pimply teenager behind the grill during a football rush. I would often work both grills with 6 quarters and one 12-6 lay on one grill and two 12-6es on the other. Needless to say, my stress level was on top of Mt. Everest. But man, when that magic “flow” would come, I felt like Leonard Bernstein conducting of the Philharmonic.
      Thanks for the memory!

      1. debug

        Make that 4 good replies! I saw your comment briefly this a.m., but then it disappeared for a while.

        Would’ve loved to have you on the grill next to me. I’d do buns and dressing but it might be hard to keep up with you! I’d barely have time to drop fries.

        two all beef patties,…

    2. Pat

      Nothing would thrill me more than rather than a debate our two main candidates have to meet a series of challenges, including both of them working the grill, having to attempt to get a procedure for a selected real constituent approved by an insurance company as that constituent, IOW using neither their own names or contacts,…. I’m sure others could come up with a few more tasks for our erstwhile best of all possible candidates (/s) to perform.

      It might not tell us much about their positions, but I am pretty sure that it would be more informative than the faux debates we now have.

      1. The Rev Kev

        I’d be more impressed if either of them demonstrated an ability to navigate the American healthcare system for a person with a chronic disease or illness.

        1. Pat

          I figured the first would be enough of a shock, but yeah getting both the healthcare services and disability services for a chronic illness would be mind blowing for both them and for anyone paying attention.

          1. debug

            My comment, in jest, got three good replies. Serious ones. Really, I’m with y’all on all that. I’d much rather we have a grand sortition of 128 random citizens with a “Who’s got talent” format and a March Madness bracket to bet on than what we’ve got. Maybe we’d get someone worth having.

Comments are closed.