2:00PM Water Cooler 9/26/2024

Bird Song of the Day

Sage Thrasher, Gunnison, Colorado, United States. Twelve minutes! I guess people become fascinated with the mimicry and wonder what will come next?

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In Case You Might Miss…

1. Kamala’s speeches on the economy (transcripts).
2. Election integrity.
3. Negotiations restart at Boeing, as suppliers and customers begin to feel pain.
4. Potential good news on the nasal spray front (albeit a mouse study).

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Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

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Trump Assassination Attempts (Plural)

“Biden pretends to squish a bug on the table on The View after Whoopi Goldberg compared Trump to an insect following two assassination attempts” [Daily Mail]. • Forty days to go, so there’s still time for the light bulb to go on in some lone gunperson’s brain….

Wowsers:

Ready for a mindf**k?

This video includes a precise POV rendition of the golf course assassination attempt on Trump

It is 2 1/2 years old https://t.co/eUr52mziLk

— Walter Kirn (@walterkirn) September 25, 2024

Not sure what to make of this….

2024

Less than fifty days to go!

Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:

Once again, the Democrats must be very puzzled to have virtual unanimity across the political spectrum that “Harris is the one,” and yet the election is a virtual tie. How can this be? Perhaps a few more Republicans, generals, or celebrities will turn the tide.

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Kamala (D): “FULL TRANSCRIPT: Kamala Harris’ Speech At Pittsburgh, PA (Sept. 25, 2024)” [The Singju Post (venue)].

And I promise you I will be pragmatic in my approach. I will engage in what Franklin Roosevelt called “bold, persistent experimentation.” Because I believe we shouldn’t be constrained by ideology and instead should seek practical solutions to problems. Realistic assessments of what is working and what is not. Applying metrics to our analysis. Applying facts to our analysis. And stay focused, then, not only on the crises at hand, but on our big goals. On what’s best for America over the long term.

And part of being pragmatic means taking good ideas from wherever they come. Listen, you all know my career. Andrea shared it with you. I am a devout public servant. I also know the limitations of government. I’ve always been and will always be, and be clear about this, I’ve always been and will always be a strong supporter of workers and unions. I also believe we need to engage those who create most of the jobs in America.

Look, I’m a capitalist. I believe in free and fair markets. I believe in consistent and transparent rules of the road to create a stable business environment. And I know the power of American innovation. I’ve been working with entrepreneurs and business owners my whole career.

And I believe companies need to play by the rules. Respect the rights of workers and unions and abide by fair competition. And if they don’t, I will hold them accountable. And if anyone has a question about that, just look at my record as Attorney General.

Look at my record in California, taking on the big banks for predatory lending.

For Kamala’s record on taking on big banks, see NC here. On the mortgage settlement after the Crash, see NC here. And in any case, if you believe Biden now, Kamala was practically co-president during his entire term. So why are we only hearing about this now, 40 days before the election? (And when did people start saying “Franklin Roosevelt” instead of “FDR”? Under Obama, wasn’t it? It always bugged me that now we leave out “Delano,” too.

Kamala (D): “Read the transcript of Kamala Harris’ exclusive solo MSNBC interview” [MSNBC]. The start:

RUHLE: Madam Vice President, you just laid out your economic vision for the future.

HARRIS: Yes.

RUHLE: But, still, there are lots of Americans who don’t see themselves in your plans. For those who say, these policies aren’t for me, what do you say to them? [what a banal softball –lambert]

HARRIS: Well, if you are hardworking, if you have the dreams and the ambitions and the aspirations of what I believe you do, you’re in my plan.

I have to tell you, I really love and am so energized by what I know to be the spirit and character of the American people. We have ambition. We have aspirations. We have dreams. We can see what’s possible. We have an incredible work ethic.

But not everyone has the access to the opportunities that allow them to achieve those things. But we don’t lack for those things. But not everyone gets handed stuff on a silver platter. And so my vision for the economy — I call it an opportunity economy — is about making sure that all Americans, wherever they start, wherever they are, have the ability to actually achieve those dreams and those ambitions, which include, for middle-class families, just being able to know that their hard work allows them to get ahead, right?

I think we can’t and we shouldn’t aspire to have an economy that just allows people to get by. People want to do more than just get by. They want to get ahead. And I come from the middle class.

The rest of it is in substance the same as the Pittsburgh speech, except (naturally) no mention of FDR (Pittsburgh being a union town). Commentary:

Strong interview for @KamalaHarris just now w/@SRuhle on @MSNBC. Good, detailed conversation on the economy. The @VP made a good case for her plan and the values behind it.

— David Axelrod (@davidaxelrod) September 25, 2024

I think Axelrod is stretching it with “conversation.” (Here the Daily Mail uses “how you gonna pay for it” as a gotcha; NC readers know about MMT, so there’s no gotcha here. Kamala doesn’t know, and so slithers off into “fair share” foofra).

Kamala (D): “Huge ad spending pours into defining Harris in the ‘blue wall’ battlegrounds” [NBC]. The deck: “Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are absorbing more than half of the presidential campaigns’ ad spending, with both sides trying to fill in voters’ perceptions of Harris.” And: “Harris’ campaign is running an equal mix of positive and negative ads on broadcast TV, according to the tracking firm AdImpact, while former President Donald Trump’s campaign is running almost exclusively negative and contrast ads — a demonstration of how focused voters and both campaigns are on defining Harris as she runs against a three-time candidate who has inspired entrenched views among American voters. ‘It’s simple: Everyone has made up their mind about Donald Trump. Trump’s numbers are the stickiest things in politics; they don’t move,’ said Alex Conant, a Republican strategist and presidential campaign veteran. ‘What’s moveable is Harris — we’ve seen a lot of movement in her numbers since she entered the race,’ Conant continued, noting the dramatic increase in Harris’ favorability numbers since she took over as the Democratic Party’s presidential candidate. ‘And there are a lot of voters who haven’t made up their minds about her because she’s new to the campaign, so there’s an ability to introduce new information. That’s why you’re seeing Trump pounding negative information about Harris and Harris feeling the need to give positive information to push back.’ The trend is similar to how the two parties handled the same period in the 2020 election — when Joe Biden ran a significantly higher share of contrast and positive ads compared with Trump, who relied primarily on contrast and negative ads but still ran a small share of positive spots.”

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Trump (R): “Trump Should Be Running Away With the Election. Why Isn’t He?” [The Free Press]. “With only a handful of interviews and some help from a sympathetic press corps, Harris has shed her image as the most unpopular vice president in recent history and rebranded as a viable candidate. But more to the point, Trump has allowed her to rebrand…. Instead of working hard to convince voters Harris is unfit for the top job, the Trump campaign has wasted too much time on two things: stupid stuff and bad stuff. First, the stupid. On Saturday, Trump posted a video on Truth Social, hawking silver ‘Trump Coins.’ … Last week he paid a visit to a bar in Greenwich Village, where he bought a burger with cryptocurrency (all part of a Trumpworld crypto push). None of this screams ‘I am laser-focused on delivering victory in November. Second, the bad. Hanging out with nutso racist troll Laura Loomer. Preemptively blaming the Jews if he loses in November. Indulging an unproven, sinister fantasy about pet-eating Haitian migrants in Ohio. Greenlighting J.D. Vance’s onstage appearance with Tucker Carlson last Saturday—just weeks after Carlson interviewed a Nazi apologist [Darryl Cooper] who he called the ‘best and most honest popular historian working in the United States today.’ All of this—the stupid and the bad—hurts Trump’s reelection chances. (Though at least the Trump campaign was smart enough to snub Mark Robinson from a recent North Carolina rally after reports revealed the gubernatorial candidate calls himself a ‘black Nazi’ on porn websites.) All of this is to say: We are a long way from Butler, Pennsylvania. In the aftermath of the Trump assassination attempt, people around the former president described him as a changed man.” • Yep. As I pointed out at the time, Trump had the opportunity to “turn” from a “Heel” into a “Face” (which he tried for a moment at the beginning of his acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention, but he didn’t persist in it). There’s still a chance for him to make a populist turn in the next 40 days, because IMNHSO Kamala’s support cannot but be shallow in the newly persuaded, but the bell will soon signal the end of the round.

Trump (R) (Smith/Chutkan): “The fruits of Jack Smith’s 2-year investigation into Trump will land on Tanya Chutkan’s desk today” [Politico]. “On Thursday, Smith’s prosecutors are scheduled to submit to Chutkan a 180-page dossier distilling their case against Trump — the fruits of a two-year investigation that included secret grand jury testimony from former Vice President Mike Pence and former chief of staff Mark Meadows. It is likely the special counsel’s final chance before Election Day to lay out his case for why Trump deserves to be put on trial and convicted. The filing — a legal brief accompanied by supporting exhibits — is expected to contain never-before-seen evidence about Trump’s efforts to subvert the last election. It could include snippets of interviews prosecutors conducted with some of Trump’s top advisers, documents Smith procured from the National Archives and a log of Trump’s Twitter activity as violence raged [oh come on] on Jan. 6, 2021. But prosecutors are not going to file these documents publicly. They must first submit them ‘under seal’ to Chutkan, who will then decide how much of the evidence is fit for public release. It’s all a far cry from the dramatic courtroom showdown Smith’s team had been preparing for a year ago, when they hoped to bring the case quickly before a jury. But it is likely to include damaging details for Trump just weeks before Election Day. Trump’s lawyers oppose any disclosure of the evidence that prosecutors have amassed, arguing that it amounts to interference in the final weeks of the campaign. They have repeatedly called for the entire case to be dismissed in light of the Supreme Court’s July 1 decision granting broad immunity for official presidential acts. But the very purpose of Smith’s brief is to advise Chutkan on how much of the case can proceed in light of the immunity ruling. Prosecutors are expected to argue that most of Trump’s allegedly criminal acts were in his capacity as a political candidate, not as president — or that any purportedly official acts are not entitled to immunity.” • “The very purpose” my Sweet Aunt Fanny.

Trump (R): “Watchdog report on Justice Department’s Jan. 6 response won’t be done by election” [Politico]. • How odd.

Trump (R): “In blow to Trump campaign, Nebraska won’t go through with electoral vote change” [Scripps]. “In a blow to the Republican party and its presidential nominee, Donald Trump, Nebraska’s governor said Tuesday he wouldn’t call a special session to change how electoral votes in the state are awarded. The decision follows a key state senator saying he would not support the effort. Former President Trump and his allies have been pressuring the state to change its 32-year law that awards electoral votes by congressional district instead of a statewide vote, otherwise known as a winner-take-all system. In winner-take-all states, the candidate winning the popular vote receives all of the state’s electoral votes. But in Maine and Nebraska, the state’s popular vote winner receives two electoral votes, and the popular vote winner in each congressional district receives one electoral vote. Nebraska has three congressional districts, and the Republican party believes their candidate will win two along with the two electoral votes coming from the state’s popular vote. But it’s Nebraska’s 2nd District that’s pushed the party to rally for a change in the electoral system, as the Omaha-based seat has tilted blue recently and could be the single electoral vote to decide a 269-269 tie.” • But no.

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“It’s not just Springfield, Haitians being flown to small towns nationwide” [Center Square]. Note lack of agency in “being flown.” This continues throughout the story. Springfield, MO: “‘due to an influx.'” Sylacauga, AL: “being dropped into their community.” Coffee County, TN: “are scheduled to arrive.” Charleroi, PA: “has grown.” Del Rio, TX: “descended on.” Is it too much to ask who, if anyone, organized the flying, the influx, the arrival, the growth, and the descent? Surely it would not have been hard for the writer to have included this information in the story. Is there a Haitian refugee program, as for the Hmong? (For example, a few Somalis chose Lewiston, ME because of low cost of living and cheap land, despite the snow. More followed. The process was organic.)

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“The Undecided Voters Are Not Who You Think They Are” [Ron Brownstein, The Atlantic]. “When most people think about a voter still trying to make up their mind, they probably imagine a person who is highly likely to vote but uncertain whether to support Harris, Trump, or a third-party candidate. Both political parties, however, are more focused on a different—and much larger—group of undecideds: potential voters who are highly likely to support Harris or Trump, but unsure if they will vote at all. Campaigns typically describe the first group of reliable but conflicted voters as persuadable; they frequently describe the second group as irregular voters. Persuadable voters get the most attention from the media, but campaigns recognize that irregular voters can loom much larger in the outcome—especially in presidential elections when more of them ultimately participate.” And: “Among the operatives and strategists that I spoke with in both parties, the best estimate is that just 4 to 7 percent of voters in the battleground states are such persuadables—people highly likely to vote but genuinely uncertain about whom they will support.” But: “Catalist, a Democratic voter-targeting firm, shared with me data rarely disclosed in public, based on its modeling, that attempt to quantify the number of infrequent voters in each of the swing states who lean strongly toward Harris or Trump. That research shows, first, that across the battleground states white people without a college degree routinely account for 70 percent or more of the Trump-leaning nonvoters; and, second, that people of color make up a big majority of Harris’s potential targets across the Sun Belt battlegrounds, as well as in Michigan. In the three big Rust Belt battlegrounds—Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—working-class white women without a college degree, Catalist’s projections show, also make up a significant share of the voters who lean Democratic but don’t vote regularly. The infrequent voters on both parties’ target list have some common characteristics, other strategists say. ‘Part of what you are seeing in this electorate is: a) a lot of anger; but b) discouragement,’ Page Gardner, a Democratic expert on voter turnout, told me. “People are discouraged about their lives and feel … I’m trying really hard and I’m not getting anywhere.” Against that backdrop, she said, the challenge for Democrats is ‘giving them some sort of agency to feel like my vote matters, because a lot of people feel that no one is paying attention to them.'” • This accords well with alert reader ChrisRUEcon’s comment yesterday: “Those ‘undecideds’ are likely Chris-Arnade-Dignity adjacent” (for “undecided,” read “irregular”). If you squint, you can see Kamala trying to make the irregular voters believe their vote counts; I’m not sure her logos, ethos, and pathos are up to the task, though. Trump taking over a MacDonald’s grill would blow that verbiage away.

“Happiness swings votes – and America’s current mood could scramble expectations of young and old voters” [The Conversation]. “Research worldwide indicates that happy people prefer keeping things the same, and they tend to vote for the incumbent in political elections. Voters who aren’t as happy are more open to anti-establishment candidates, seeing the government as a source of their discontent. These findings may help to explain the Democratic Party’s waning support among young people…. The changing political preferences of unhappy young Americans are particularly revealing when compared with those of older Americans, who have been getting happier in recent years…. The 2024 presidential candidates seem to have intuited this. The Harris campaign is all about “joy” and celebrating happiness and community. The Trump campaign adopts an angrier tone and a grievance-filled approach.” • Change (not happy) vs. More of The Same (happy). Somehow, I don’t think the irregular “dignity” voters (see above) are happy. But will they be unhappy enough to get off the couch?

Democrats en Déshabillé

“NYC Mayor Eric Adams indicted on 5 federal public corruption charges, including bribery and wire fraud” [CNN]. Well, so much for Black cop with a million-watt smile. More: “The indictment alleges illegal actions stretching back to 2014, from when he was Brooklyn Borough president. ‘For nearly a decade, Adams sought and accepted improper valuable benefits, such as luxury international travel, including from wealthy foreign businesspeople and at least one Turkish government official seeking to gain influence over him,” the indictment reads. Specifically, Adams received luxury travel and other benefits from a Turkish official and later in exchange pressured the NYC Fire Department to open a Turkish consular building without a fire inspection, the indictment says. The mayor ‘engaged in a long-running conspiracy,’ Damian Williams, the US Attorney for the Southern District of New York, said Thursday. ;Mayor Adams took these contributions even though he knew they were illegal,’ Williams said. “He knew these contributions were attempts by a Turkish government official and Turkish businessmen to buy influence with him.’ Adams said Thursday morning he was not surprised by the charges and encouraged the public to “wait to hear our defense before making any judgments,” adding he would not be changing his day-to-day responsibilities in light of the indictment.” • Turkey? Why?!

Realignment and Legitimacy

“Partisan Split on Election Integrity Gets Even Wider” [Gallup]. “– Fifty-seven percent of Americans say they are very or somewhat confident that the votes for president this year will be accurately cast and counted. That aligns with how Americans have viewed the election results most years since 2008. However, it masks Democrats becoming more confident in the process and Republicans becoming less so. This has led to a record-high 56-percentage-point partisan gap, with 84% of Democrats versus 28% of Republicans having faith in the accuracy of the vote.” • This is a big problem, to understate radically. Any Sanders voter knows Democrats have no issue with jiggering election results. Any Green voter knows that Democrats ruthlessly control all aspects of the balloting process (that being the distinctive competence of the modern political party). And given that digital = hackable, hand-marked paper ballots, hand-counted in public, are the only way to truly secure the vote (and how odd that nobody in the intelligence community, which is quietly but busily amassing the power to legitimate or delegitimate election results, supports them). All that said, Trump’s attempt to challenge the 2020 election result — driven by the kraken lady and poor old brokedown Rudy Guiliani, and taking into account exactly zero technical experts from the balloting communmity — was farcically bad; given every advantage, the AZ recount effort came up dry. So we the voters are in the unenviable position of knowing that the opportunity for fraud exists, while having no evidence that a fraud has been committed in the last Presidential election (and don’t @ me without showing a non-crank lawsuit now wending its way through the courts). And that said, threatening election workers makes me want to defend the little old church ladies who checked my name against the voter roll, and gave me an “I voted” sticker after I handed in my ballot. Very unpleasant possibilities for stochastic terrorism here, I would say. Nobody said the volatility would stop the day after election day.

“The Potential National Security Consequences of Unplanned Domestic Military Missions” [Lawfare]. The headline, combined with the “Lawfare” venue, gives me pause. What missions do they have in mind, exactly? It reads like Imperial bafflegab, but if I wanted to translate this concluding paragraph into something more menacing, it would not be hard to do: “Many interrelated factors should be carefully examined when considering the use of the military. The defense mission and core capabilities developed to carry it out often do not correspond to the skills needed to perform domestic tasks. Serious and likely harmful consequences flow from diverting the armed forces and the resources that support them to missions more appropriately tasked to domestic agencies. Those consequences include distracting the military from its main function—deterring and if necessary fighting America’s wars—and blurring the lines between what civilians are trained and resourced to do and what is expected from a professional military.”

“Speedrunning The History Of The Intelligence State” [Mike Benz, RealClearPolitics]. Good research, and you should consider reading in full. Here’s how it starts out: “We’ll sort of speed-run the essential history all the way up to the present, but we’re going to start in the year 1948. This is the sort of “Year Zero” of the founding of the intelligence capacities of the U.S. government. Instead of learning what you’d find in an ordinary history book, we’re going to start with a document that I’m curious if anyone has ever seen, called “The Inauguration of Organized Political Warfare.” Did you know that George Kennan, in 1948, wrote this memo called ‘The Inauguration of Organized Political Warfare’? George Kennan is known as a godfather figure of American diplomacy and the Central Intelligence Agency. He was famous for his ‘long telegram’ and was the chief strategist of the containment strategy against the Soviet Union during the Cold War. But before all that, when all of this was getting started, he penned this top-secret memo, which was not declassified for 60 years. It was declassified in 2005, and I think it helps elucidate the story as we’re going to proceed here. We’re going to go through this memo, but I want to give some context first. “The Inauguration of Organized Political Warfare” was written just 12 days after the Central Intelligence Agency did its first government overthrow operation, its first election-rigging event. That was on April 18, 1948, and this memo was written just 12 days after that.” • Quite an introduction. Read the whole thing, and you’ll see why I place it here. It’s hard to draw connections without creating a yarn diagram — especially in the right-wing fever swamp — but Benz avoids that here. Very clarifying.

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

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Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

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Morbidity and Mortality

“Predictors for COVID-19-Specific and Non-COVID-19-Specific Deaths: A Cohort Study in Taiwan” [Asia-Pacific Journal of Public Health (RK)]. N = 2196. From the Abtract: “Predictors for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-specific and non-COVID-19-specific deaths have not been extensively studied. This cohort study in Taiwan investigated predictors for COVID-19-specific and non-COVID-19-specific deaths among hospitalized patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. From January to July 2022, 2196 COVID-19 patients at Taipei City Hospital were consecutively recruited in this cohort study… Our study findings suggest that vaccination and Paxlovid treatment are crucial for reducing SARS-CoV-2-specific mortalities, while comorbid patients need careful monitoring to reduce non-COVID-19-specific deaths.”

Science Is Popping

“Toward a Radically Simple Multi-Modal Nasal Spray for Preventing Respiratory Infection” (PDF) [Advanced Materials]. Mouse study (sigh). See the Conflict of Interest statement (page 18). Nevertheless, very big if true. The Abstract:

Nasal sprays for pre-exposure prophylaxis against respiratory infections show limited protection (20–70%), largely due to their single mechanism of action—either neutralizing pathogens or blocking their entry at the nasal lining, and a failure to maximize the capture of respiratory droplets, allowing them to potentially rebound and reach deeper airways. This report introduces the Pathogen Capture and Neutralizing Spray (PCANS), which utilizes a multi-modal approach to enhance efficacy. PCANS coats the nasal cavity, capturing large respiratory droplets from the air, and serving as a physical barrier against a broad spectrum of viruses and bacteria, while rapidly neutralizing them with over 99.99% effectiveness. The formulation consists of excipients identified from the FDA’s Inactive Ingredient Database and Generally Recognized as Safe list to maximize efficacy for each step in the multi-modal approach. PCANS demonstrates nasal retention for up to 8 hours in mice. In a severe Influenza A mouse model, a single pre-exposure dose of PCANS leads to a >99.99% reduction in lung viral titer and ensures 100% survival, compared to 0% in the control group. PCANS suppresses pathological manifestations and offers protection for at least 4 hours. This data suggest PCANS as a promising daily-use prophylactic against respiratory infections.

And from the Conclusion:

PCANS presents a promising chemoprophylactic approach against respiratory infections. Besides its potential to act as a first line of defense against respiratory pathogens and emerging variants for which there are no vaccines available, our approach could also be potentially used as an added layer of protection with existing vaccines. Given its broad-spectrum prophylactic activity and shelf stability, we anticipate PCANS holds the potential for global distribution, especially in countries with low vaccination rates against respiratory pathogens. Alongside, the benefits of PCANS can also be extended to immunocompromised patients, high-risk individuals with co-morbidities, and vaccine-hesitant populations. Its pocket-sized spray format allows for easy portability, making it convenient to carry during social gatherings and travel. With these significant benefits, we believe PCANS will experience rapid widespread adoption, enhancing the accessibility of respiratory infection prevention.

Let’s see what the regulators think. And Big Pharma.

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TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

Wastewater
This week[1] CDC September 16	Last Week[2] CDC (until next week):
Variants [3] CDC September 14	Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC September 14
Hospitalization
★ New York[5] New York State, data September 23:	National [6] CDC August 31:
Positivity
National[7] Walgreens September 23:	Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic September 7:
Travelers Data
Positivity[9] CDC September 2:	Variants[10] CDC September 2:
Deaths
Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11]CDC September 14:	Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12]CDC September 14:

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, with hot spots annotated. Keeps spreading. NOTE The date seems to be wrong, but the number of sites has changed so this is new.

[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* very popular. XDV.1 flat.

[4] (ED) Down, but worth noting that Emergency Department use is now on a par with the first wave, in 2020.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Definitely down.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). The visualization suppresses what is, in percentage terms, a significant increase.

[7] (Walgreens) Big drop continues!

[8] (Cleveland) Dropping.

[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Down. Those sh*theads at CDC have changed the chart so that it doesn’t even run back to 1/21/23, as it used to, but now starts 1/1/24. There’s also no way to adjust the time range. CDC really doesn’t want you to be able to take a historical view of the pandemic, or compare one surge to another. In an any case, that’s why the shape of the curve has changed.

[10] (Travelers: Variants) What the heck is LB.1?

[11] Deaths low, but positivity up.

[12] Deaths low, ED up.

Stats Watch

GDP: “United States GDP Growth Rate” [Trading Economics]. “The US economy grew at an annualized rate of 3% in the second quarter of 2024, unchanged from the second estimate and above an upwardly revised 1.6% expansion in the first quarter.”

Employment Situation: “United States Initial Jobless Claims” [Trading Economics]. “The number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the US dropped by 4,000 from the previous week to 218,000 on the period ending September 21st, below market expectations of a rise to 225,000, and reaching a new 4-month low. Despite this decline, the claim count remained above the averages seen earlier this year, as the US labor market has softened since its post-pandemic peak, although it remains historically tight.”

Manufacturing: “United States Durable Goods Orders” [Trading Economics]. “New orders for manufactured durable goods in the US were loosely unchanged from the prior month in August of 2024, compared to the revised 9.8% surge in July which was the highest in four years, and contrasting sharply with market expectations of a 2.6% drop. The result challenged the growing pessimism over manufacturing activity in the United States, suggesting the current slowdown may be temporary.”

Manufacturing: “United States Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index” [Trading Economics]. “The Kansas City Fed’s Manufacturing Production index fell to -18 in September 2024, from 6 in the previous month, marking the lowest reading in 14 months and way below forecasts of 9.”

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Manufacturing: “Boeing, workers union to resume talks on Friday” [Reuters]. So much for the “final” part of “Best And Final Offer.” “Negotiators from Boeing and the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM) will meet with federal mediators in a bid to break the deadlock, after two days of previous talks collapsed a week ago….”

Manufacturing: “Can the Machinists Save Boeing from Its Management?” [Labor Notes]. “While Boeing wailed that the strike may cause mortal wounds to the company, the Machinists union has for decades been fighting against the company’s self-wounding practices: rampant outsourcing, undermining of quality inspections, moving work to non-union shops, and hollowing out what used to be a coveted family-sustaining job. Company policies have resulted in the loss of experienced workers, production delays, mismatched and shoddy parts, and the disastrous quality lapses that led to an Alaska Airlines door plug blowout in January. It was the union that was originally responsible for pushing the separation of quality inspection from production pressures, said Steve Cabana, a quality assurance inspector for 13 years. ‘Having quality separate in the supervisory chain is the only way quality can have any teeth,’ he said. ‘I can look at a process and stop it.’ This is not true at vendors the company buys parts from, Cabana said, where they have ‘the same management system for manufacturing and quality.’ ‘That’s how the company figured it could save money by outsourcing, because other people didn’t have the same rigorous standards,’ Cabana said. ‘It’s a fragile network of suppliers who honestly aren’t compensated all that well for the work that they do,’ said Mylo Lang, an apprentice machinist at Auburn with six years at the company. ‘They’ve really been squeezing them, in fact, over the years.’ In Boeing’s own plants, the company has tried to slash inspections, too. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) requires in-person inspections by qualified workers, but in 2017 Boeing tried to speed up production by having mechanics sign off on their own work. At the company’s assembly plant in North Charleston, South Carolina, which currently has no union, the lack of worker power and input meant the company tested out cuts to quality inspections there first, around 2017, then expanded into the Puget Sound plants, where union members rallied to stop the cuts, flooding meetings and making the question a shop floor issue.”

Manufacturing: “Boeing confirms production of 737s has halted” [Fortune]. “Boeing’s production of 737 jets has come to a “complete halt” as the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM) strike continues, according to a Bank of America analyst note sent out on Tuesday. Two separate representatives for Boeing confirmed the production stoppage to Fortune. ‘Airplane production in Washington state is temporarily paused including work on the 737 MAX, 767, 777/777X, P-8, KC-46A Tanker, E-7 Wedgetail,’ a spokesperson wrote Fortune in an email Wednesday. ‘Work at our Fabrication sites in Washington and Oregon will also temporarily pause. Employees not represented by this union will continue to report to work as normal.’ Boeing’s stock fell more than 2% on Wednesday, at the time of publication. The stoppage’s full impact on actual deliveries of the planes ‘remains uncertain,’ BofA analysts wrote. But the pace has nonetheless ‘slowed significantly.’ Only two 737s have been delivered in the last week, which they say is ‘well below normal levels.’ As for the 787 jets—a different, less embattled model—Boeing has made zero deliveries over the past week, and has only delivered two in all of September. But BofA ‘expects Boeing to maintain the same levels of rollouts compared to last month” because the assembly line tasked with 787 production is ‘mainly unaffected by unions.’ As a result, BofA maintained its rating on the stock as neutral.” • That “unaffected by unions” (carbon fibre) makes me think. I believe Boeing promised to make the next aircraft, the “797,” in Seattle, presumbly also from carbon fibre, if they began it during the life of the contract currently being negotiated. But did Boeing promise the 797 would be built with union labor? Readers?

Manufacturing: “Spirit Aerosystems beginning to see effects of Boeing strikes – reports” [Airport Technology]. “Boeing parts supplier Spirit AeroSystems has reportedly warned it may begin furloughing employees soon if the strikes at the aircraft manufacturer’s production plants continue much longer. The supplier, which is set to fall back under Boeing’s control next year, is currently using the lull in work at the aircraft factories to address a backlog of orders but will soon begin seeing the effects of the work stoppage.”

Manufacturing: “Boeing strike squeezes California aerospace suppliers, including Independent Forge in Orange” [Orange County Register]. “Machine tool and metal shops across the region are feeling the effects of the Boeing strike, as is a complex supply chain that stretches across the world…. ‘This could be devastating for us,’ said Andrew Flores, president of Independent Forge Co. Inc. ‘Forgings are the start of most parts made in the aviation business, and that’s the first thing they want to stop.’… The company also is worried about a second strike that emerged earlier this week when unionized machinists with a general aviation unit owned by Textron Corp. in Kansas walked off their jobs for higher wages and benefits, Flores said.” • Hmm. Only Textron, then?

Manufacturing: “Boeing strike leaves Asian airlines sweating on plane deliveries” [The Business Times]. “The Seattle factory strike crippling production at Boeing is triggering delays to 737 Max deliveries across Asia, a region that’s already home to some of the biggest order backlogs for the flagship aircraft. The US manufacturer is due to hand over 981 Max jets to carriers in Asia, led by Air India and Indonesia’s Lion Air, by 2030, according to data from Cirium. That’s close to one-third of all scheduled deliveries of the aircraft worldwide over that period. But with Boeing at loggerheads with the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers, which represents some 33,000 Boeing employees who have been striking for almost two weeks, concerns are escalating about the reliability of the plane pipeline. Responding to queries from Bloomberg News, Korean Air Lines, Vietjet Aviation and Japan Airlines said they were either suffering delivery delays due to the strike, expecting planes to arrive late or concerned about handover dates slipping. Others including Singapore Airlines said they were working with Boeing on delivery schedules in light of the factory shutdown.

Manufacturing: “Senators want to see major changes at Boeing. The FAA says that could take years” [Politico]. “The head of the Federal Aviation Administration warned senators Wednesday that ensuring troubled planemaker Boeing rights its ship will take years — not months — even with the FAA looking over its shoulder…. But [FAA Administrator Mike Whitaker] said that while Boeing has improved on short-term challenges in its manufacturing lines, ‘[we] would be kidding ourselves to think you can change 170,000 people, culture in 18 months — so it’s going to be a long haul.'”

Tech: “Millions of Vehicles Could Be Hacked and Tracked Thanks to a Simple Website Bug” [Wired].

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Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 67 Greed (previous close: 65 Greed) [CNN]. One week ago: 60 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Sep 25 at 1:55:41 PM ET.

The Current Cinema

Coppola’s Megalopolis:

#AMCTheatres #Megalopolis 🎟️🍿🥤 pic.twitter.com/IiaP66e2J0

— MAC (@mci41827) September 26, 2024

Universal derision from the reviewers, which intrigues me. Has anyone seen it?

Gallery

Quite modern:

Incantation, 1797 pic.twitter.com/Etgr3YnUjN

— Francisco Goya (@artistgoya) September 26, 2024

Class Warfare

“Amazon Logistics under investigation for alleged labor violations” [Seattle Times]. “Seattle’s Office of Labor Standards is investigating Amazon Logistics — the company’s vast network of delivery services — for alleged violations of labor laws, including the city’s ordinance requiring paid sick time for gig workers that went into effect this year. The investigation appears focused on Amazon’s Flex drivers, who operate like gig workers and make deliveries for the company using their own vehicles and on their own schedule.”

News of the Wired

“The history of telecoms is at an end” [Intermedia]. The deck: “In his latest book, William Webb argues that we mostly have all the connectivity we need. The telecoms industry needs to refocus away from technical innovation and towards efficiency. Governments and regulators, he says, will need a new mindset.” • Perhaps even too much.

“The power of leisure: How everyday hobbies stop cognitive decline” [Study Finds]. “In community centers across the country, seniors gather for book clubs, chess matches, and art classes. These social hubs of mental stimulation may be more than just pleasant diversions – they could be unofficial cognitive health clinics, according to new research. The study suggests that engaging in cognitively stimulating leisure activities (CSLAs) might be key to preserving cognitive function in older adults with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). This research offers hope for those looking to stave off cognitive decline and potentially reduce their risk of developing dementia.” • Maybe I should stop reading Model Railroader and build a layout, Perky Pat-style. Not.

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Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From: JG:

JG writes: “My old neighbor gave me the Roseville pitcher decorated with an abstract landscape and a chain of bows in relief. The mesh pattern on the vase comes from the screen window which provided the lighting on the subject. The zinnias came from another kind neighbor.” A lovely “pitcher” indeed!

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