By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Bird Song of the Day
Mourning Warbler, Shannondale Springs Wildlife Managment Area, Jefferson, West Virginia, United States. “As per Wil Hershberger, this recording is of an adult male Mourning Warbler (Geothlypis philadelphia) that was visually identified and in sight throughout the recording. This recording was originally archived as Mourning Warbler, but the identification was later mistakenly changed by an ML archivist due to the similarity of this bird’s song to the song of Chestnut-sided Warbler (Setophaga pensylvanica). The subject has been changed back to Mourning Warbler as per the recordist.” Category errors abound.
John Zelnicker was a long-time reader and commenter at Naked Capitalism. He was also the instigator of the Naked Capitalism Songboook, now in four volumes (thanks to the songwriting and parodic talents of many NC readers).
He died on Wednesday of this week. From his obituary:
John was a lover of music and books, women, technology, top-shelf Scotch, religious history, philosophy, economics, and playing with numbers. He would read The Lord of the Rings trilogy and attend at least one Grateful Dead concert during every summer break from The Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. John was a corporate hippie, running his own tax accounting business while wearing hideous tie-dye Crocs.
He was a remarkably gracious man, a Southern gentleman to his core, recklessly generous, and so intelligent one could hardly keep up with him. John made friends without even realizing it, and there was never a lost soul who crossed his path that he didn’t try to help if he could. Over the years, many people told him that he should write a memoir, but he preferred to share his incredible stories in person and boy, he could tell one helluva story.
After working with John on the Songbooks, I know I can speak for all who talked with him when I say that indeed his memoir would have been quite something, and it would have been an honor to have been included within it.
And:
Never a fan of fanfare, and with sincere apologies to his friends and family, John requested no ceremony or service upon his passing. Instead, he hoped that people would choose to honor his life by donating to their local public library or to Penelope House in Mobile, Alabama.
A big fan of libraries, too, which speaks well of him.
In Case You Might Miss…
- Friday charts: The election (tied), and Covid (improved).
- Kamala’s speeches on economics.
- New 737 malfunction (rudder pedals) discovered as negotiators back at the table.
Politics
“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
Biden Administration
“These student loan grace periods end this month. Are you prepared?” [WaPo]. “In light of the chaos, activists and advocacy groups have urged the department to extend the on-ramp period while the litigation continues. The department says a provision in the Fiscal Responsibility Act prevents the agency from extending the grace period.” • Well, I can apply that two thousand bucks Biden gave me to the payments, I suppose….
2024
Less than forty days to go!
Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:
This week’s crop of flag-of-convenience Democrat celebrities and generals didn’t turn the tide either. Despite the micturition and lamentation (very much including my own) about the Trump campaign dogging it when the election is theirs to win (see Gallup, “2024 Election Environment Favorable to GOP” on the issues) do note the steady deterioration in Kamala’s position in the (aggregated) top battlegrounds. (Of course, we on the outside might as well be examining the entrails of birds when we try to predict what will happen to a subset of voters (undecided; irregular) in a subset of states (swing), and the irregulars especially might as well be quantum foam, but presumably the campaign professionals have better data, and have the situation as under control as it can be MR SUBLIMINAL Fooled ya. Kidding!.
“Donald Trump opens up big lead in our election model: Are Kamala Harris’ best weeks behind her and where are the 27,000 voters who could decide who wins?” [Daily Mail]. This is aweome; the Daily Mail actually has an election model! “Kamala Harris may have enjoyed her most successful campaign weeks, according to our J.L. Partners/DailyMail.com election model which shows Donald Trump opening up a 10-point lead. The model crunches all the latest poll data, as well as decades worth of election results plus economic indicators, to calculate who has the best chance of winning the electoral college in November. It still shows Harris with the best chance of claiming victory in the popular vote (it gives her 50.8 percent support now and a 65 percent chance of finishing with more votes in November). But state-by-state numbers all show the Blue Wall of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan tilting towards Trump, giving him the overall advantage when it comes to winning the White House. It gives him a 55.2 percent chance of victory. Harris is on 44.6 percent, with a very small chance of a tie.” • I’m so old I remember when the New York Times had one of these (2016, I believe; it was roundly ridiculed, after the event):
You can click the dial to get individual states; Pennsylvania is a toss-up, leaning Trump.
* * * Kamala (D): “Harris Has a Manufacturing Agenda—in a Fact Sheet” [The American Prospect]. The deck: “Her speech on the economy was guarded. The details laid out by the campaign paint a brighter picture.” I would have expected it to be the other way round; a “fact sheet” is marketing collateral. In a speech — I grant a discount is to be heavily applied — the candidate gives some approximation of their word. (That’s why “Read my lips, no new taxes” backfied so badly for Bush the Elder, for example.) “Because Harris got such a late start campaigning, she doesn’t have the years of consistent messaging native to most presidential candidates. And she is hypersensitive about being tagged as a radical, both to the voting public and to the donor base that has driven up her fundraising. Trying to both lock in trust and dispel mischaracterizations, to both pitch toward the undecided voter and maintain the hype from the base that accompanied her substitution for Joe Biden in the race, is a real high-wire act. It leads to cockeyed statements like quoting Franklin Roosevelt’s desire for ‘bold, persistent experimentation’ (to get out of the Depression, in his case) with a promise for ‘practical solutions’ and ‘pragmatic’ approaches, which may be virtuous but are less than bold.” • Possibly. My thesis that Kamala will say whatever she has to say because she doesn’t know who she is yields an equally powerful account — albeit an account without what some would interpret as charity, and others as special pleading — that covers her entire career and, importantly, has fewer epicycles to “save the phenomena” (hat tip, William of Occam).
Kamala (D): “Kamala Harris and what (little) we can learn from a softball interview” [Washington Examiner]. “So what can be drawn from 25 minutes of softballs and non- and semi-answers? Not much. But a few scraps: First, with a friendly, supportive interviewer, Harris can mention things like wanting a “path to citizenship” for illegal border crossers without fear of further questions. (Harris has supported the “path” policy for years and included it in her Democratic National Convention acceptance speech.) Second, again with a friendly, supportive interviewer, Harris won’t even make an attempt to answer questions she doesn’t want, such as the difference between inflation and price gouging and her role in creating the Biden-era inflation. And third, again with a friendly, supportive interviewer, Harris will not or cannot give a better answer than her first long soliloquy about aspirations and ambitions and dreams and whatever. Yes, those are small benefits. The public deserves to see Harris facing a true interviewer, one who would question her statements, her premises, her assumptions, who would put her on the spot. But that will probably not happen. The candidate, after all, decides who gets an interview and who doesn’t. And there’s no reason to think Harris will submit to serious scrutiny anytime soon.”
Kamala (D): “Is Kamala Harris’s Media Strategy Working?” [The Nation]. “Ruhle asked Harris if it was really true that she’d worked in McDonalds, which led to the two women singing the old Big Mac jingle, which was hokey but cute. Harris spoke passionately about the importance of that work—but also the unfairness of the fact that she was doing it as a college student, while her coworkers were trying to support families on a minimal wage.” • What editor turned “the minimum wage” into “a minimal wage”?
Kamala (D): “Harris to visit U.S.-Mexico border to tout toughness on immigration” [Axios]. • That should do it. Will there be a photo op?
Kamala (D): “Vance, Walz face potential game-changing moment with VP debate” [The Hill]. “Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) are set to take to the debate stage next week at a critical moment in the presidential race, with more than a month to go before Election Day and polls showing a razor-tight race. Both men face pressure to perform well, with Vance looking to make up lost ground after former President Trump’s rocky debate against Vice President Harris earlier this month and as he faces growing scrutiny over his controversial remarks. Meanwhile, Walz likely will be pressed over his and Harris’s liberal track records at a time when her campaign is tacking to the center. While most observers note vice presidential debates haven’t moved the needle much in the past, they say this year could be different. Polls show a highly competitive race between Harris and Trump in the final stretch, and any big misstep or knockout blow by one of the vice presidential contenders could change the game. ‘All the needle needs to be moved is 0.1 percent in either direction, and that could be the difference in four or five states,’ said Democratic strategist Steven Maviglio.” • Assuming the undecideds and irregulars have identical properties across “four or five states.” I’m not sure I would assume that. (If you think of identity as a bundle of properties, we have identity politics to assert that voters with properties a, b…n behave — or should behave — identically regardless of jurisdiction, but I’m not sure that’s true, especially when economics is not typically one such property.)
* * * Foreign leaders hedging the bets? Or do they know something we don’t?
Trump (R): “Trump to meet Zelenskyy after Harris promises ‘unwavering’ Ukraine support” [Al Jazeera]. “Donald Trump has said he will meet Volodymyr Zelenskyy after criticising the Ukrainian president on the campaign trail and expressing doubts about Ukraine’s ability to beat Russia. Trump, the Republican candidate in the November 5 United States presidential election, said he would meet Zelenskyy in New York on Friday.”
Trump (R): “Starmer meets Trump for the first time” [BBC]. “The prime minister has had a two-hour dinner with former US President Donald Trump in New York.
It is the first time Sir Keir Starmer and Trump have met. The pair were joined by Foreign Secretary David Lammy.”
Trump (R):
Former President Trump met with Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed, the President of the UAE and Ruler of Abu Dhabi, earlier this evening.
Arguably the shrewdest leader in the Middle East, MBZ sought to establish a close relationship with Trump and his team early on.
In December 2016,… pic.twitter.com/rPIfD6eVPw
— Yashar Ali 🐘 (@yashar) September 27, 2024
* * * Trump (R): “The Republican Party is less white than ever. Thank Donald Trump” [Vox]. “In poll after poll, he’s hitting or exceeding the levels of support he received in 2020 from Latino and Hispanic voters. He’s primed to make inroads among Asian American voters, whose Democratic loyalty has gradually been declining over the last few election cycles. And the numbers he’s posting with Black voters suggest the largest racial realignment in an election since the signing of the Civil Rights Act in 1964…. Why? Putting aside environmental factors and shifts in the American electorate that are happening independent of the candidates, there are a few theories to explain how Trump has uniquely weakened political polarization along the lines of race and ethnicity.1) Trump has successfully associated himself with a message of economic nostalgia, heightening nonwhite Americans’ memories of the pre-Covid economy in contrast to the period of inflation we’re now exiting. 2) Trump and his campaign have also zeroed in specifically on outreach and messaging to nonwhite men as part of their larger focus on appealing to male voters. 3) Trump and his party have taken advantage of a confluence of social factors, including messaging on immigration and cultural issues, to shore up support from conservative voters of color who have traditionally voted for Democrats or not voted at all.” • “Economic nostalgia” is brilliant framing (trans. “Lay back and enjoy it). However, some voters might wish to regard the Biden era as a temporary blip; it’s Make America Great Again, after all.
Trump (R): “Trump Victory Comes Into View” [Christian Whiton, Capitalist Notes]. “With Trump, voters basically know how he will bring back the Three Fat Years of economic growth and peace we had before the pandemic. He will cut energy prices, which will make everything cheaper, and stop the over-spending that has driven inflation. He will negotiate the end of wars rather than starting new ones. He’ll get control of the border and deport the bad hombres. And he will rebuild the military to be what Rush Limbaugh used to identify as its primary purpose—’to kill people and break things’—rather than a sandbox for DEI experiments and four-star politicians who can’t win wars. Contrast that to Kamala and her zero-calorie word salad. How will she make life better for anyone except for the government bureaucrats and elite overlords…? In short, as he did in 2016, Donald Trump is connecting emotionally with voters and offering them practical solutions. And, while Kamala is hiding from even her fanboys in the corporate media, Trump is communicating with voters in plain language and, despite the best efforts of big media, big tech, and Hollywood, he is getting through.” • I agree that Trump is “connecting,” because the race is tight while the entire political and media establishment is pulling for his opponent (module outliers like Carlson); as are the organs of state security. But every moment Trump takes to hawk [family blogging] watches is a moment taken away from the campaign trail. And the campaign trail is not a place go skipping along, hither and yon, dancing and singing la-di-da, and stopping to smell the flowers (or watches, as the case may be). If there’s anything “weird” about the Trump campaign — leaving aside the professional deformations of the right — behavior like this is it. Have some respect for the base!
* * * Trump (R): “Trump Judges Are High-Performing ‘Mavericks,’ New Study Claims” [Bloomberg Law]. “More than 20 years ago, New York University law professor Stephen Choi and University of Virginia law professor Mitu Gulati developed a methodology for evaluating judges that focused on three metrics: productivity, influence, and independence. They dubbed the judges with the highest overall scores ‘superstars’ (with Judges Richard Posner and Frank Easterbrook of the Seventh Circuit as the top two back in 2003). For a new paper, Choi and Gulati applied their framework to the 77 federal appellate judges who were 55 or younger in 2020—43 Trump appointees and 34 non-Trump appointees, roughly a 55%-45% split. The professors chose this group based on the reasoning that these jurists have the right combination of youth and judicial experience to be considered for the US Supreme Court in the near future. They referred to this judicial cohort as ‘auditioners,’ since some of them appear to be ‘auditioning’ for a spot on the high court…. One possible prediction was that Trump judges would underperform. Based on Trump’s public pronouncements about how ‘his’ judges would act and his own conduct in other spheres, some observers expected him to select judges based on their ability to deliver conservative outcomes or their personal loyalty to him—a ‘deviation from traditional norms of picking ‘good’ judges,’ as explained in the study abstract. But instead, according to Choi and Gulati, ‘Trump judges outperform other judges, with the very top rankings of judges predominantly filled by Trump judges.’ This was, as Gulati told me, ‘not what we expected.'”
* * * * * * NC: “Harris and Trump campaign in swing states with battling visions for the economy” [PBS]. • Voter interviews (with lots and lots of cites to professional opinion-havers).
Clinton Legacy
“Hillary Clinton reflects on decades of service and how Harris can beat Trump” [PBS]. “[INTERVIEWER:] So this is your fifth book since the 2016 election. You opened by quoting probably one of the greatest songs ever written, “Both Sides Now” by Joni Mitchell, tears and fears and feeling proud.” • What a time to be alive.
Syndemics
“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).
Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!
Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).
Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Stay safe out there!
Transmission: Covid
Interesting proxy:
This year's round of free COVID-19 tests is again relying on less accurate (but far less expensive) antigen tests
A reminder that there are still over-the-counter home "molecular" COVID test devices that are much more sensitive, but start at $39.99 eachhttps://t.co/oQgfkFNjrd https://t.co/njID5eCh59 pic.twitter.com/TVS3mSwElI
— Alexander Tin (@Alexander_Tin) September 27, 2024
Testing and Tracking: H5N1
“Free COVID tests are back. But there are more accurate tests for sale” [CBS]. • But of course. Commentary:
This year's round of free COVID-19 tests is again relying on less accurate (but far less expensive) antigen tests
A reminder that there are still over-the-counter home "molecular" COVID test devices that are much more sensitive, but start at $39.99 eachhttps://t.co/oQgfkFNjrd https://t.co/njID5eCh59 pic.twitter.com/TVS3mSwElI
— Alexander Tin (@Alexander_Tin) September 27, 2024
Elite Maleficence
Bonnie and Gladys, together at last:
😳😳😳
Explains so much about our joint inertia. https://t.co/sdvYz27ztl
— David Joffe MB BS (Hons), PhD, FRACP 🇦🇺 (@DavidJoffe64) September 26, 2024
Social Norming
“Why People Don’t Listen to Warnings” [The Sentinel Intelligence]. “We’re not here to make light of natural disasters. We’re here to understand why, as we face an increasing number of devastating threats, a growing number of people don’t want to take them seriously….. A psychologist at Duke University named Jack Brehm figured out this problem in the 1960s. He called it reactance. He published a handful of articles about it followed by a book titled A Theory of Psychological Reactance. His book inspired 60 years of research on the topic. It even informed the popular psychological trick known as reverse psychology. Brehm discovered something you’ve seen a lot over the last few years. When you try to influence someone’s actions, they resist. When people feel a threat to their perceived independence, they get angry. They try to restore their freedom. They might ignore the warning. They might make fun of you. They might pitch a fit. They might punch you in the face. It depends. Reactance means that the ones who don’t listen to warnings perceive the loss of their freedom as the greatest threat of all. They protect it at all costs. Everyone has their own reactance scale. It lives on a spectrum. At one end, you have collectively minded people. They tend to focus on the greater good. They’re more likely to give up certain freedoms if it means avoiding death and destruction. On the other end, you have rugged individualists who see almost every warning or suggestion as a threat to their personal freedom. Here’s the weird part: An individualist will get angrier if a friend or relative tries to influence their behavior in a way that threatens their sense of personal freedom. They’re also more likely to resist advice or information coming to them through anyone promoted as an expert or authority figure.” • Interesting, but I don’t think social pyschology maps directly to politics…
Lambert here: At last, the wastewater data looks improved. Apparenltly, we dodged a “Back to School” bullet, at least at the national level. The wastewater drop is reinforced by the positivity numbers as well.
| Wastewater | |
| ★ This week[1] CDC September 23 | Last Week[2] CDC (until next week): |
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| ★ Variants [3] CDC September 28 | ★Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC September 21 |
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| Hospitalization | |
| ★ New York[5] New York State, data September 25: |
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| Positivity | |
| National[7] Walgreens September 23: | ★ Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic September 21: |
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| Travelers Data | |
| ★CDC September 9: | ★CDC September 9: |
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| ★CDC September 21: | ★CDC September 21: |
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LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”
NOTES
[1] (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, with hot spots annotated. Much less intense!
[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.
[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* very popular. XEC has entered the chat.
[4] (ED) Down, but worth noting that Emergency Department use is now on a par with the first wave, in 2020.
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Definitely down.
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC).
[7] (Walgreens) Big drop continues!
[8] (Cleveland) Dropping.
[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Up, though lagged.
[10] (Travelers: Variants).
[11] Deaths low, positivity down.
[12] Deaths low, ED down.
Stats Watch
Personal Income: “United States Personal Income” [Trading Economics]. “US personal income increased by 0.2% from the previous month to $24.015 trillion in August of 2024, following a 0.3% rise in the previous month and below market forecasts of a 0.4% rise.”
Inflation: “United States Core PCE Price Index Annual Change” [Trading Economics]. “The annual increase in the core PCE price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge to measure underlying inflation, edged higher to 2.7% in August of 2024 from 2.6% in the previous month.” • Long ago baked in for the election, though.
Manufacturing: “Critical safety alert: Boeing 737 rudder malfunction linked to cold conditions, NTSB warns” [USA Today]. “According to the NTSB, a piece of the rudder control system on 737 Next-Generation and 737 Max aircraft, the two most recent generations of the manufacturer’s best-selling plane, can lose functionality in cold weather conditions. A United Airlines flight returning from Nassau, Bahamas, to Newark on Feb. 6 had its rudder pedals stuck in the neutral positions during the landing roll. The NTSB said the captain was able to control the plane using its nosewheel steering system. No injuries were reported to passengers or crew during that incident. Even so, the agency investigated and found issues with the plane’s rudder system…. The NTSB directed Boeing to determine and notify airlines of appropriate pilot responses if a similar incident occurs and to alert pilots ‘that the rudder control system can jam due to moisture that has accumulated inside the actuators and frozen.’ The agency has also recommended that the FAA ‘determine if actuators with incorrectly assembled bearings should be removed from airplanes, and if so, to direct U.S. operators to do so until replacements are available.’ The agency also said Thursday it accepted NTSB’s recommendation. ‘As a party to the investigation, the agency has been monitoring this situation closely,’ the FAA said in a statement. ‘Tomorrow, we will convene a corrective action review board based upon the NTSB’s interim recommendations and determine next steps.'” • Poor old Boeing. Now the NTSB is after them too!
Manfucturing: “Boeing, Machinists back at the negotiating table as strike enters third week” [Seattle Times]. “Friday’s negotiations will likely be punctuated by frustration over Boeing’s latest move. The company publicized the offer shortly after delivering it to the negotiating team, rather than presenting it to the union through discussions at the bargaining table. Union leadership said Monday that made members feel disrespected, and finding out about the details of the new offer through the media was like ‘a slap in the face.’ Boeing later said in a statement that ‘this strike is affecting our team and our communities, and we believe our employees should have the opportunity to vote on our offer. … We’ve reached out to the union to give them more time and offer logistical support once they decide to vote.’ The next day, the union’s negotiating committee told members they were heading back to the bargaining table. Boeing is eager to end the strike as it burns through cash and work in its factories remains halted.” • Well, they can’t be that eager, can they?
Manufacturing: “Boeing strike costs U.S. $1 billion of GDP in just two weeks as negotiations resume” [Fortune]. “The strike that has hobbled Boeing for two weeks is being felt not just at the company, but also across the entire country. As of Friday, the fallout from the strike accounts for a $1 billion reduction in U.S. GDP, according to estimates from Bjorn Markeson of economic analysis and modeling company IMPLAN. According to Markeson’s calculations, this loss totals $700 million in Washington State alone, almost half of which is accounted for by lost wages in the state…. The strike has cost Boeing workers and shareholders a combined $1.25 billion so far, according to estimates released by Anderson Economic Group, a different way of measuring the economic impact than gross domestic product. Boeing’s debt also sits at the precipice of being downgraded to junk, which would substantially raise borrowing costs for a company that is hemorrhaging cash.”
Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 68 Greed (previous close: 71 Greed) [CNN]. One week ago: 63 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Sep 27 at 1:56:31 PM ET.
Gallery
Capricho (1):
Duendecitos, 1797-1798 pic.twitter.com/HXajruugQS
— Francisco Goya (@artistgoya) September 27, 2024
Capricho (2):
Michael Basquiat… pic.twitter.com/xeVb2KUe4w
— El Club del Arte 🎨📷📚🖼🕍🎼 (@Arteymas_) September 27, 2024
“Autoworkers, Boeing machinists, cannabis drivers: Labor unions are mobilizing in new and old industries alike” [The Conversation]. “What do violinists, grocery store clerks, college dorm counselors, nurses, teachers, hotel housekeepers, dockworkers, TV writers, autoworkers, Amazon warehouse workers and Boeing workers have in common? In the past year or so, they’ve all gone on strike, tried to get co-workers to join a union, or threatened to walk off the job over an array of issues that include retirement plans, technology replacing workers and lagging wages as inflation increased. The array of Americans who are organizing unions extends to the tech, digital media and cannabis industries. Even climbing gym employees have formed a union. This is happening as U.S. workers in general are finding themselves in an increasingly precarious position. As a labor historian, I believe mobilization is the result of economic disruption caused by the relocation of jobs, the impact of new technologies on work and the erosion of income stability. It’s become very unlikely that today’s workers will have the same employer for decades, as my father and many men and women of his generation did.” • Woo hoo!
“Can Trump flip the unions?” [Unherd]. “Republicans must acknowledge the inherent tensions that exist between their burgeoning working-class support and that segment of their base, who continue to hold outsize influence, namely the wealthy local elites in the small-business class, known as the ‘gentry’, who dominate the party at state and local levels. Unlike the Democratic-leaning professional and corporate sector, the working class and small-business class generally converge in their shared cultural conservatism and patriotic ethos, yet common symbolic proclivities are not enough to wield a coalition together when there are very real differences in their respective economic aims. The gentry prefer low wages and ‘flexible’ labour markets so as to better attract investment; but for quite understandable reasons, unions want the opposite: higher wages, benefits, and levels of protection for workers…. The Republican Party must, therefore, rediscover an older mode of political engagement from before the present era of ideological polarisation, one that Nixon and the New Dealers alike would have recognised: brokerage politics.” • Which Trump would love: dealmaking. (I filed this story here because I like the notion of “American gentry“, but “small business” to me tends to connote a coffee shop with a few employees, and not, as the Census and the SBA would have it, a firm with up to $40 million in revenues and 500 employees. That would be the mill in a mill town, and you can bet that’s not the same as a coffee shop.
“7 questions — and zero conspiracy theories — about the allegations against Sean ‘Diddy; Combs” [Vox]. A good explainer. “Combs was incredibly powerful in the music industry and in American culture more generally. He was one of the first people to blend the worlds of hip-hop, business, and luxury.” But: “So far, a few bold-faced names who were on the guest lists at Combs’s celeb-packed ‘white parties’ have come forward to say they were in no way connected to any of the crimes Combs is accused of. But it’s best if we all give the conspiracy theories a rest and let the case be handled in court. Wild speculation is only liable to exacerbate the victims’ pain.”
I am not yet feeling wired.
Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From L:
L writes: “I walk past this house every day and for some reason the yard enchants me. Nasturtiums and oxalis, with geraniums and a century plant in the back. A lonely peace lily peeks up and Lantana fills in on the right. Our winter has been quite cold and very humid. Cold damp day after day is rather miserable to be honest. I was surprised to find out that here they have different names for familiar plants!! I’m constantly surprised at how anglo-centric my assumptions are!!”
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May John Z rest in peace, wherever he may be now, and sincere condolences. I’m so sorry to see one of us leave.
Sad to lose a good person. RIP John.
Nice unicorn for the antidote, but I feel it is probably a photo-shopped donkey painted to look like a zebra on the streets of Tijuana-a double entendre.
Whoops, fixed.
Aw damn the world is less bright without John Zelnicker and Maggie Smith. I will miss them both.
John was a favorite voice and the songbook(s) are one of his apparently many achievements. Sending good thoughts to his family and to our NC ragged band.
John Zelnicker published my first limerick and will forever be in my heart. Sad news.
Requiem aeternam dona eis, Domine, et lux perpetua luceat eis. Requiescat in pace. Amen.
It’s already been a tough week as I got news of an old college roommate who passed suddenly on Tuesday.
Then this. I guess all I can say is “Thank you John.” You were a kind-hearted soul, I could sense. You did not have to go to the trouble to compile our parody works into a handy and well-formatted e-book. But you did, and it brightened up my day, and I am certain others. My condolences to the family.
more sad news, alas
Sorry to hear of John Z’s passing, thanks for getting the band together, man.
John kinda felt like a mother to us – putting our crappy artwork up on the refrigerator and gushing about how great it was.
RIP, Good Sir….
i second all of the above…because i never know what to say.
condolences.
So sad to read of John’s passing. He was one of the good ones. The world is a lot less today.
You all take care of yourselves out there.
After seeing the Eric Adams’ indictment, what he’s accused of seemed like some pretty low-level corruption, which made me wonder what he did to become the focus of so much attention and why someone may want him out.
I’m wondering if the Donald is on to something here – https://x.com/AutismCapital/status/1839436032888221900
LOL! Yea, maybe so. Seems strange things happen to people who say something against the administration.
Uttered sporadically by our nominal Commander-in-Chief.
There is a lot fishy about it. Adams is a crook, but looking at this it appears that our law enforcement community has known that and even had some of the receipts for almost a decade. So once again why now. Especially since we well know that our current President and a former one sold influence for twice or more of that time.
Something to keep an eye on;
As ports strike nears, union warns that companies like Walmart, Ikea and Home Depot will be left with few to no import options – CNBC
That might be an October surprise. So could world WWIII which seems to be on the table for some of these warmongering idiots, as things seems to be getting even more dicey in the Middle East.
From “The Republican Party is less white than ever. Thank Donald Trump”
–“And in contrast to the period of inflation we’re now exiting”
Let us know when grocery, fuel and retail prices return to 2001 levels.
No one gives a shit about the rate of prices increasing, they care about the prices.
All my Black brothers at the gym are voting for Trump with one exception, voting for Jill Stein. He’s a muslim.
Candace Owens is doing deep digging on Harris’ family. Looks like her father lied about his grandmother for revolutionary credo. She was white. The alleged Black grandmother, supposedly pictured with Kamala, was probably a servant in their rich plantation household who died four years before Kamala was born.
https://youtu.be/x4s2aiMwRNg?t=64
All based on public records from Jamaica.
I think Kamala talking about crypto now is her male outreach.
“No one gives a shit about the rate of prices increasing, they care about the prices.”
That’s why I call it compounding inflation.
Every move by the FED just concentrates and redistributes wealth upward.
Thanks for all the Mimidae! Respect has been paid to the Family, enough to willfully welcome the Warblers!
I will return to the mimidae; I picked a “mourning” bird just for today.
I am posting this JACOBIN criticism of German BSW even though it did piss me off.
(The author appears to not understand the task of the party – he writes as though BSW had been around for 30 years – and completely neglects the fact that its most important leaders all have enough experience with immigration personally and that there is a dozen of VIPs in BSW besides Wagenknecht. Which, frankly is sort of tiring to see in a piece by an outlet which is regarding itself as supersuper-sophisticated. And above all he appears to have zero clue of the hawkishness of German media. Does Castano have the feintest of ideas what would happen did BSW propose the same immigration policies as Die Linke? I guess not. Of course he can demand his idealism but then he will end up outside parliament. And something tells me that politicians like Wagenknecht, Hunko, Ali, Al-Dailami, Dagdelen, Leye, Di Masio, Nastic, Ernst etc. who have been fighting the system for 20 or 30 years have had enough. So either you do the power game or you don´t. I just don´t see what´s so difficult to understand there? Unless Castano is about as mature as the Green Youth. Which is perfectly fine. But then do not pester me with second rate analysis in JACOBIN. Er, this kind of lack of understanding by political commentators has become usual fare among the left.)
“Sahra Wagenknecht’s Party Is a Bad Example for the Left
By Pablo Castaño
In Germany, the new Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance has scored well in its first electoral tests. Its burial of class politics and imitation of right-wing positions on migration show why its rise isn’t good news for the Left.”
https://jacobin.com/2024/09/sahra-wagenknecht-left-far-right
Thank you for posting the link. I think this point has been neglected for many years, and I’m so happy to see BSW take a firm stance. You can’t take put in place an affirmative social welfare policy for the working class in one country (or economic bloc) and at the same time, permit dilution of wealth by immigration. If I remember correctly, Bernie Sanders actually went here early in his 2016 run, but it was quite rapidly shouted down by the identity politics faction.
She addresses concrete material conditions instead of university fads. Bad leftist!
The left and right no longer make sense. The distinction is between globalist and anti-globalist according to Alain Juillet, ex-chief of the DGSE (French intelligence service). He points out that globalism has benefited the rich, but also harmed the poor.
The proposition that Sahra Wagenknecht is copying the far-right is preposterous, if you bother to learn a little very recently history.
The head of the French communist party George Marchais in the 1980s and 1990s used to rail against any immigration because it took over good union jobs, so the author’s notion that anti-immigration positions are only “right-wing” is historical revisionism.
In other words, Sahra Wagenknecht is old-style left and is espousing old-style left ideas. She represents the working class, not the woke pro-globalist lifestyle “left-winger” professional class, which has, for some reason, managed to supplant the actual socialist/communist “screw the plutocrats” parties of only two or three decades ago.
The fact that Jacobin published this rubbish, which any Brit/Frenchman/German who has lived more than three decades should know is historical revisionism, either shows that they care more about convincing people of narratives convenient to the plutocrats rather than the truth, or that their editorial staff is quite incompetent.
Power outages must be vast or widespread today, is my guess for both counties here Greenville Co and Spartanburg Co. Oh and locally 911 is apparently intended as a service for life threatening urgent matters, and not for griping ( most likely ) about Duke Energy I’ll venture. First World problems take hold in South Carolina!
To quote Lambert in Alien….”but I like griping…” My beer will not stay cold but that is a temporary inconvenience…I will venture that cheap frozen food won’t be trusted much longer…being the cheap ass that I am.
I’m reading on Twitter that I-40 East between NC and TN is gone. There is a picture showing one side of the road washed out. Not good.
> Power outages must be vast or widespread today
I had to leave it on both cutting room floors, but I believe Waffle House closed (at least in Tennessee).
“much more sensitive [tests] that start at $39.99.”
i.e. 40 bucks minus one penny that no one will bend over to pick up on the street.
Will no one rid me of this meddlesome [advertising trick] penny?
Cents are 97.5% zinc with a little copper plating, and cost about double the face value to produce.
I zinc you can see who has a vested interest…
And the zinc cents corrode so much on the sidewalk that change machines reject them. (I may be one of the few who pick up change, as I need to check for “snacks” my dogs may pick up on our walks, so I look down not up most of the time.)
“The next day, the union’s negotiating committee told members they were heading back to the bargaining table. Boeing is eager to end the strike as it burns through cash and work in its factories remains halted.” • Well, they can’t be that eager, can they?
Not too much competition for them. So they only have to worry about who burns through cash faster during the stand-off.
Matt Taibbi has apparently published a piece in LE MONDE sometime last week I think about the demise of free speech and how France once a staunch supporter of privacy has turned into a willful supporter of US surveillance of France´s own population.
Perhaps someone can find his piece and report.
The link, in French, paywalled.
you can put those nasturtium leaves in yer salad…kinda peppery.
and the flowers, when they come, are edible, too…taste like a carrot-radish lovechild.
adds a burst of color to the salad, too.
and while i’m at it….the entire airplane plant/spider plant is edible…i grew up assuming they were poisonous. turns out theyre almost a staple in southeast asia.
tastes kinda greenbeaney, i think…but its been mixed in with all manner of things(like the green carrot tops=full of vitamins)
and i highly recommend having some malabar spinach around…grows near wild, here, by now,lol…
purple and green vining thing with big fat leaves that have that okra like slime for juice…i use them as thickeners for all sorts of stuff.
ive been busy for aweek getting the lick tubs filled and moved into the new pocket garden that is the fall/winter garden…heavy labor, even with Rocinante(tractor)…hurt all over…hurts to lay down, even.
got a lil chicken proof fence around it…protected from the north winds(its in the Library Cloister, next to the bar, where all the fig trees are.)
various lettuce and mesclun, parsley, shallots, carrots, radishes, nasturtiums, spinach, chard,and some asian greens and cabbages next week.
bunch of other stuff.
all does well in fall and into winter, here…with prudent precautions when a freez comes….spray water all over it as it freezes, for instance…and have a ready box of old VA sheets to throw over everythng for any early hard freezes.
RE:COVID Variants [3] CDC September 28
Straight outta Germany. XEC hits the board at 5.7%. Now we know. The holidays aren’t going to be a fight between XDV.1 and XEC. It’s going to be XEC all the way.
“Trump Judges Are High-Performing ‘Mavericks,’ New Study Claims” [Bloomberg Law]
Federalist Society thinks that Federalist Society picked judges are even better than ever, using Federalist Society created metrics. News at 11.
I finished up with the orts and scraps There’s a lot on the election (including Trump meeting with foreign leaders like, already).
Gosh I’ll miss seeing John Zelnicker’s name here. Seems like he was an all around terrific person, wish I’d known him. Love that he was listening to Pete Seeger when he passed. Heartfelt condolences to his family and friends.
re: “The Republican Party is less white than ever. Thank Donald Trump” [Vox].
“Why? Putting aside environmental factors and shifts in the American electorate that are happening independent of the candidates, there are a few theories to explain how Trump has uniquely weakened political polarization along the lines of race and ethnicity.”
No mention of the way the Dem estab viciously turns on non-whites and any minority that questions any Dem policy for the last 4 years? Hey, I thought I was part of the big tent. However, I have problems with the Ukr and Isr wars, so now I’m an unwelcome persona non grata? Oh kay…. I mean the estab just came down on NYC major Adams who last year publicly talked about all the financial and social service and crime problems the open southern border and a huge influx of undocumenteds into the city is causing. The estab can’t very well call him a r*cist, the way they do to flyover towns like Springfield, OH. So suddenly they dig up 20-year old crimes. (Which may have happened but weren’t a problem until he stepped out the their official narrative.) T doesn’t have to do much to present as an alternative to the Dem machine. I’d say the machine is driving people away. / my 2 cents.